Could Labour suffer if each elector had to register?
August 2nd, 2007
What do we think of the Electoral Commission’s conclusions?
As the BBC is reporting this morning all web and phone voting pilots should be halted according to a report from the Electoral Commission on the voting experiments that took place in parts of England in May 3rd.
Then there were a series of trials including internet and phone voting, electronic counting, insisting that voters sign for their forms, and making town centre facilities available ahead of polling day so people could vote early.
But the one thing that the Electoral Commission is still pressing for is individual voter registration which would “strengthen the security” of the voting process.” This is something that operates in Northern Ireland and which, until now has been opposed by Labour.
But how do you get people, particularly the young, to do this? Those involved in this process say its challenging with the current system that one person in the household fills in the registration form. Alas it is not hard to work out how this process could be open to abuse.
Labour, certainly in the Blair days, saw making it easier for people to vote as a key strategy in ensuring that the party maximises its electoral potential. Individual voter registration, it’s suggested, would impede that. Certainly all the polling shows that there are more Labour-inclining adults in the UK than Tories but the former group are less inclined to vote.
There is even evidence to suggest that when Labour supporters say they are are “100% certain to vote” they are less likely to do so than backers of other parties. So much so, in fact, that in its final poll before 2005 general election Ipsos-Mori applied a differential filter so that Labour “certains” counted for less than Tory ones.
Tony Blair always had a close interest in voting system. The question now is whether Brown will follow suit. The continued insistence by the Commission on individual registration could be hard for Labour to resist.
Mike Smithson
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The true moral bankruptcy of Labour is shown by the way it clings to postal votes, where women in some minority communities are regularly disenfranchised by male “elders”.
The degree of fraud in recent elections is scandalous, and ought to have been a scandal had press or Parliament fulfilled their responsibilities.
Whether individual registration is the answer is less certain but it will be interesting to see how it plays amongst the advocates of ID cards. I fear ID cards may be used to scupper the former, and indeed any action at all till this alleged panacea can be delivered.
I still believe, incidentally, that Brown will not go forward with ID cards, on grounds of cost rather than civil liberties, but that is by the by.
As a supporter of ID cards I wouldn’t suggest that they’d be particularly relevant in this context, since it’s not proposed that it be compulsory to have them (the compulsory bit would only be for the central register to confirm identity if challenged, and fraudulent voting is rarely challenged on an individual basis).
test, I agree there’s a problem with families who are in the habit of deferring to the ‘head of household’ (not only seen in minority communities, by the way) but note that nobody including your party is actually proposing to abolish postal voting. These were de facto available on demand long before they became so de jure, and even going back to very strict medical-reasons-only (which is only watertight if no local party has a complaisant doctor) is I think further than anyone proposes. The reality is that if you tend to vote as your dad or husband tells you, you probably will even if you’re voting in secret at the polling station - the problem is the attitude more than the system. That is a different problem from the systematic harvesting of fake voters as appears to have happened in some Birmingham seats and which led to prosecutions. I hope and think that it’ll be hard for anyone to get away with that again on a significant scale - EROs are watching like hawks for odd patterns.
It’s not an area where any party is especially brilliant - we’ve all had cases of fraud, and the largest, probably unintended, impact of legislation on voting in recent years was probably the poll tax, which led large numbers of Labour voters to drop off the register altogether. One can make a case for saying that compulsory voting would help, since if everyone was voting duplicates would be spotted more readily - but we know that Tories would veto a consensus on that as it’s believed that non-voters tend to lean Labour - and of course anyone who forced it through would get hit by a backlash.
Nick Palmer MP @ 3 on deferring to the head of the household. With postal votes, the paterfamilias can check which way his family votes, or even vote himself on their behalf, whereas in a secret ballot he has to take their word for it. That is the point.
The political story of the day, is this a deliberate leak?
http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/topstories/2007/08/02/brown-a-secret-election-battle-plan-89520-19556894/
OT — Barack Obama wants to blow up Pakistan as well as Iran.
there are more straws in the wind
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2007/08/02/nelection202.xml
More straws in the wind??
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2007/08/02/nelection202.xml
More straws in the wind??
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2007/08/02/nelection202.xml
7/8/9 - A whole bale of straws, Coldstone!
John L - thats very unfair - what he said was actually right imo, that the best way to fight terrorism to to not be fighting in iraq, as this is what those that are inclined to jihadist causes want, but rather on sorting out afghanistan and Pakistan. Afghanistan we are already in and have a job to do which needs to be finished. In terms of pakisatan he said that they should help secular funding and also provide pakisatn with a better equiped miltary so as to deal with their own problems, as well as pushing diplomatically for a more democratic pakistan. The issue of “attacking” reffered to miltary strikes in pakistan territory in the area close to the afghan boarder.
I think saying that he wants to blow up pakistan misrepresents his opinion slightly.
As for the mirror story, I think that its an attempt to destabalise the tories and force them to bring forward some policies just in case and thus giving brown sometime to pick them apart, or steal if you believe he would ever do that.
Sorry don’t know what happened there
11 Happy to agree with you on both counts this morning, Red Flag.
I find the merging of the issues of Afghanistan with Iraq particularly irksome. The former is a very different kind of war - legal for a start. It is also winnable, or would have been if the Iraq advanture had not drawn away resources and attention.
If Gordon Brown reads this in the Dail Mail, he’d be off to the polls, ‘toot sweet’ Glover begging Gordon, ‘not to go to the polls’ so as to give the Tories a chance!
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/pages/live/articles/columnists/dailymail.html?in_article_id=472533&in_page_id=1790
11. He did however say that he’d bomb bases in Pakistan without that government’s consent if they didn’t do as his administration wanted.
That may well have been true, but it is not the sort of thing one says about an ally, implying that they are truculent, incompetent or about to be overthrown. If Obama had any understanding of the situation, he would recognise the difficulty comments like that create in Islamabad and consequently their counter-productive nature.
Given how many Pakistani civilians the Americans have killed in previous air raids, I can understand Musharraf being somewhat cautious in authorising further actions.
“The reality is that if you tend to vote as your dad or husband tells you, you probably will even if you’re voting in secret at the polling station - the problem is the attitude more than the system”
Well that’s almost a tautology, isn’t it? The issue is not with people “tending to vote” as their husband etc tells them, but being “forced to vote” as their husband etc tells them, even to the extent to which they might not even fill out their own ballot paper.
The issue with fraud is not that widespread postal voting has made it easier per se - individual voting fraud in some form has always been very easy - what has changed is the potential for organised (maybe even at party level) voting fraud on a scale that can corrupt the outcome of an election.
Back on topic, I’m not sure if Labour would suffer or not. The question really is how many people would fail to register who are currently voting? I suspect the biggest losers would be parties like the BNP who feed off disaffection.
I agree that young people would probably be less likely to complete their forms and that group is disproportionately Labour, but they’re also disproportionately non-voters, so it does depend who the ones are that don’t return their forms.
Nick at [3] - believe me, nothing is undermining the democratic system more than the postal vote scandals. Why do you think the take-up of postal votes is so high is some (usually inner-city) ethnic minority areas? - and it is usually in these areas that the scandals are worst, even if they’re not all exclusively there. You’re right that elders can ‘influence’ the vote even when done in polling stations, but as John rightly says, with postal votes they can actually fill them all in themselves.
The degree of intimidation that can take place in some of these elections has to be seen to be believed. It’s not just about heads of families - and those families can mean several hundred people, not just immediate parents and offspring - it can be landlords or money-lenders demanding votes as well. It is not too much to say that in some areas, the extension of postal voting has had the practical effect of repealing the 1872 Ballot Act.
The continued insistence by the commission…The government has n’t taken any notice of the commission’s recommendations in the past.
Voting should be a private act in a public place; not the other way around.
End of argument.
Who cares if Labour suffers? We suffer from the most appalling voting system with continual allegations of postal fraud, ballot box tampering and so on.
Sedgefield is heavily disputed by two parties. Turnout was reported as around 40% but could in fact have been 50% according to canvas returns.
Our democracy is worse than a banana republic’s - to quote a judge in a recent electoral fraud case. It’s a disgrace. It’s Labour’s disgrace. It’s time it was sorted out. Individual voter registration is the only way to go.
David Herdson is spot on. We need drastic tightening up of postal voting, individual registration and voters being required to show some form of identification at the polling station.
I am all for higher turnout but the integrity of the ballot goes to the heart of our democracy and must come first.
5 - staggering to read this in the Mirror link:
“Two months ago in the dying days of Tony Blair’s power, weary Britain was crying out for change and the Tories were cock-a-hoop at their lead in the polls”
Not John Major they’re slagging off, or “sleazy Tories”, standard Mirror staples, but Tony Blair, Labour’s most successful leader ever. It’s like the Guardian endorsing Michael Howard.
Re the Gould memo, I gave up after a couple of paras of guff, but isn’t he the same chap who created the Blair Farewell Tour memo (”leave ‘em wanting more, Tony”)? If so, I think we can file this safely in the trashcan…
If the idea is that each person in the household has to register themselves in person and in front of an offical witness, then it’s doomed to failure. What about the infirm and the chronically ill?
If you want to postal vote you should have to prove that you will not be in the country during the ballot - end of.
It says a great deal about how little most people care about politics that the appalling voting fraud of recent years is not more of an issue. Labour, once presented as an optimistic, idealistic choice (remember 1997?) now feeds off cynicism and apathy.
22. It’s becoming increasingly clear to me how much of an electoral liability Blair had become for Labour. The gloss had finally and completely worn off and the undercoat was showing through.
I attended a Labour Party Ward meeting and the sense of relief that Blair had gone and the optimism for the future was striking. This is what Brown is benefitting from. How long it will last I don’t know. But for the moment it certainly feels like a new Governmant in power and the wind is in our backs.
9, Brown should go now - he will never be more popular.
Pedantic point of the day - 3 - “Tories would veto a consensus” - well it isn’t a consensus then is it!
Personally I would rather not have the government in charge of deciding what to do on this issue, but have an independent Electoral Commssion have more power to push through their solutions.
However, outside the political geeks, I think few voters have picked up on these issues.
I am not sure there is a technical fix for “communal” voting.
Whilst it is alien to the individualism on which our society rests, that individualism is not shared by all other ethnic/religious groups, for whom family (or even clan) membership is often at least as important, if not moreso. The real choice may lie between encouraging these groups to vote in ways which reflect their cultural reality, and discouraging them from voting at all, with all the further alienation and self-alienation that implies.
I suspect that, in practice, the “technical fix” won’t work. Those against whom it is directed will simply work round it.
The problem caused by Labour shamelessly chasing non-voters with ridiculous schemes (voting by text anyone?) has been the abolition of the necessary checks to prevent fraud. The only people with postal votes should be those who will be out of the country for sustained periods, or the immobile. I guess Labour figure that the non-interested will be easier to manipulate with ideas of the Conservatives as “nasty posh guys” or using the terrorist bogeyman.
Interesting piece by John Bolton in the FT yesterday.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/3259025a-3f73-11dc-b034-0000779fd2ac.html
Yes, it’s about the EU. But if it genuinely reveals American thinking it’s a timebomb for Brown.
11 & 15. The problem with Pakistan is that even though the leadership is behind us, many in the civil service support Al-Qaeda. Additionally, its one of the weakest states in the world and parts of the Northwest Frontier simply aren’t controlled by the government. Obama was foolish in that he said “if Musharraf won’t…”, he should have said “if Musharraf can’t…”
Mike, interesting article.
I for one am very opposed to postal voting.
re 11 Red Flag “or steal if you believe he would ever do that.”
*cough* its not like Gordon has never done that before is it?
31. Interesting to see how US thinking has evolved over the last 30 years. In the 1960s and early 1970s the US was desperate to get Britain into the (then) Common Market to prevent the country sliding toward possible neutrality in the Cold War. Considerable resources were expended to help bring Britain’s membership about.
In the 1990s, the US remained strongly in favour of further UK integration into the EU on the basis that the UK would wield positive influence, offsetting the anti-Americanism of France et al. There was also a naive belief in US circles that a united Europe would spend more on its own defence.
Now it seems that in the wake of the split with Europe over the Iraq war, some US conservatives have woken up to the risk posed to US interests by the EU’s foreign policy ambitions. Specifically, the possibility that the US might lose its main global ally - the only one with any diplomatic and military clout. If this view becomes more entrenched, the UK’s future status in the EU will become very questionable.
31 - at last it is dawning on the US! When will it dawn in the UK?
34. Yup. People dismiss Bolton as a neo-con nut, but he’s served in senior positions in several Republican administrations. He is a controversialist to a certain extent - but only to the extent that he actually says what a lot of Americans are merely thinking.
It seems possible, and maybe probable, that Britain will lose its special relationship with America at some point in the near future, if we continue with European integration. For the reason Bolton says.
Moreover, we will inevitably lose our seat on the UN council - why should all the other countries let the EU have two seats, when the Union has a common foreign policy, a single foreign minister, etc?
All these changes spring inevitably from the Constitutional Treaty.
Of course many Britons would like to divorce ourselves from America, especially George Bush’s America. But that may be a passing phase. I doubt that many Britons really think we have more in common with Germany, Bulgaria and Greece than we do with our cousins across the Atlantic.
Bolton’s essay is yet another warning shot across Brown’s jowly bows. I’m sure they are studying it very closely in the Foreign Office.
Think long and hard before you sign this Treaty, Mister Brown.
Rik W
John Bolton is out of the administration and has been attacking it for some time. He ridicules any attempt at diplomacy with Iran or North Korea. As to the former diplomacy hasn’t worked so far but do you really want the US to rush in to bombing Iran? Even Bush is some way away from that.
And diplomacy has worked with North Korea. Kim Jong Il is decommissioning the Youngbyong nuclear reprocessing plant contrary to Bolton’s forecasts. Fingers of course must be crossed but the five party talks approach seems to be working.
I doubt GB will be listening to John Bolton. DC would be well advised to do the same.
31 34 Doesnt the US benefit from the UK’s membership of the EU? It allows considerable leaverage in terms of manipulating alliances within the EU, take the recent announcement on PNR as just one example, and also allows considerable additional resources for intelligence gathering.
36
But would you trust a man with a moustache like that?
“I doubt that many Britons really think we have more in common with Germany, Bulgaria and Greece than we do with our cousins across the Atlantic.”
Actually I think we have plenty in common with Germany. And Bulgaria and Greece aren’t any more weird than Wyoming or Utah.
37. I don’t think GB will be listening to Bolton per se, but the issues Bolton raises ARe being discussed in Washington, and will not go away.
There are many people in America - Google the matter - who are waking up to what the EU now means: goodbye to Americ’a most reliable ally as a sovereign actor on the global stage.
And there is simply no answer to the UN question. Once the Treaty is signed, it is inevitable that we will lose our UN Council Seat in short order. Why should a Union with one foreign policy and one foreign minister have two to five seats on the Council? Doesn’t make sense. India with 1000 million people doesn’t have one seat on the Council.
Lord Malloch Brown, Gordon’s boy, has himself already predicted a single EU seat. Here:
http://www.friendsofeurope.org/index.asp?http://www.friendsofeurope.org/news_detail.asp?ID=1073&page=det&frame=yes~bas&frame=yes~bas
38. That was certainly the traditional US view, but it is now changing. A UK without effective veto powers in the foreign policy sphere, subject to a Europe-wide foreign policy decided by majority voting is much less useful at advancing US interests than before. Ultimately there is a risk that the UK’s resources could be turned against US interests.
This where I do my SeanT impression - I am sitting here in San Remo Italy eating blah blah blah, watching women blah blah blah
On topic though, God I hate the smugness of with which people on here protect their private masonic handshake - the ballot in a booth as though it is the sacrament. Talk about not seeing the wood for the trees.
Turnout going down the tubes, and nobody seems to care. Everything else we do - crucially including banking - now in electronic format and as Nick points out above - there was no golden era
If anybody should be campaigning for greater convenience for voting it should be pb’ers. The whole thrust should be on just how easy it is to vote - all done in a nano second - no barriers to involvement - no membership of a private club called “voters”
1. Voting over two days at the weekend
2. Polling booths like slightly more secluded lottery points - and in Tesco Sainsburys WH Smith etc. When you pay at the till - the assistant says “Remeember to vote”
3. Individual sign up - because it is right even though there may be short term problems
4. Postal voting on demand - I love my postal vote - no traipsing off to Wood Green School.
5. Internet voting is on the way
40. Fair enough. I disagree. I travel widely in America and I just feel more at home in an English-speaking country, with common law principles, and a shared history of liberty, and that protestant background, and Shakespeare in the park, than I do with, say, people in Sofia or Thessaloniki or Hodmezovasarhely.
I actually feel particularly at home in Utah - lots of fat people eating bad food in a windy place with churches everywhere. Reminds me of Cornwall.
Where we can agree, surely, is that a decision between the two - absorption in Europe or friendship with America - is sufficiently serious as to Require a Referendum.
41. To be fair the UN matters not a lot these days. How can you take a organisation seriously which has Zimbabwe heading up a commission on sustainable energy - lol !
43. Lazy b*gger !
OT Sitting on the balcony last night - a warm Italian evening etc etc My 10 year old daughter asked to use the lap top, and spent 30 minutes doing a powerpoint presentation - called “Why Dad Is Obsessed with Political Betting” which concluded with the immortal line “What I think of Political Betting:I’m just sad you can’t take Nicorette for it….”
46 Sure am - as are most except obsessives like us,when it comes to voting
45. On last thread:
Re 43, TJM “Also, those who claim he isn’t ideologically biased, you should watch Fox News for a bit. It is the most extreme uber-rightwing propaganda I’ve seen. I once saw a subject under discussion “Has every civilization that accepted homosexuality fallen?” Not one person disagreed with the statement, let alone pointed out how logically ridiculous it was. ”
Can you think of any that haven’t?
That said there are of course some that did not that fell anyway, however what has happened in the past is that a civilisation gets to a state where it can ore than feed it self, gets comfortable, then gets licensuous (sic) and self absorbed, then gets over run.
by Benedict White August 1st, 2007 at 5:23 pm
How about all the presently tolerant societies right now? The Netherlands, California, Thailand? And if you don’t count ones that haven’t fallen “yet” than you can equally say “Every civilization ever has fallen.” It was just a ridiculous statement and logically stupid. And the idea that civilizations fall when they become too opulent is a fallacy used by those who either wish to stamp an authoritarian presence on society or have certain over-poetic tendencies.
41. The single European foreign policy would only be used in matters where there is agreement to give the European view more weight as a single powerful bloc. If we disagree on stuff we can still maintain national viewpoints. I’m a Eurosceptic and anti the constitution, but lets be honest about things.
43. This “we must get turnout up, no matter the security issues” view is just stupid. Turnup has been down because the elections haven’t been close. Believe me, the next GE will be much higher.
If anyone should be campaigning for greater security on voting it should be pb’ers. Postal voting is way too open to manipulation and intidation. As for e-voting, that idea is only given by weight by people who don’t really understand computers/the internet. It is so open to fraud, its ridiculous. Yes we have banking available that way, but a lot of money goes missing and banks spend millions combatting it, and they still fail much of the time. Of course for banks the increase in revenue they get from electronic banking is worth the cost. For increasing the turnout by 3% for those people who can’t be bothered to get off their arse and nip down the local school?
We should be concentrating advertising the importance of voting, how lucky we are to be able to do it, etc.
Voting over two-days over the weekend is a good idea though.
45. Or Libya looking after Human Rights! The problem with the UN is that it has no roots in democracy. Perhaps if we could set up some international Democratic League it could get the legitimacy from being multinational while also being unambivalent about democracy.
5
‘The political story of the day, is this a deliberate leak?’
Does anyone still take Kevin Maguire seriously?
After this year’s local elections Maguire reported that they had been disastrous for the Tories with gains of only 1,000 seats!
Maybe he can tell us when we will get the ‘intense and compelling activity’, in terms of the ‘Brown bounce just goes on & on’its certainly lasted as long as Callaghan’s bounce but we all know what happened to him.
seanT @ 31 re John Bolton on the EU — the prospect of losing UN Security Council permanent seats should concentrate minds in Paris as well as London.
52. Remember the French are confident that they will control the new EU seat - which on past form seems a perfectly reasonable assumption on their part.
53 — do the Germans know?
52. I’m not sure it will though. I think in Paris many view a single EU Security Council as inevitable - and indeed desirable.
When the Constitution Referendum was held in France, the pro-Treaty French website actually said: ‘The EU has a UN vocation - to have a single seat’.
Here in a nutshell is the European problem for the UK. Most people in continental Europe, certainly in the elites, see the EU naturally evolving into a single superstate, with some unusual subsidiariaty. It will be a non-imperial Empire - Barosso thinks we are there already.
They are quite open about it, and see it as a good thing.
In Britain we persist in deluding ourselves that it is just an overgrown trading bloc. Meanwhile, those, like me, who see the EU for what it really is, and dislike it, are dismissed as ranting loonies (and with some justification on the ranting thing!). By contrast those in the UK who see the EU for what it is, and like it, stay very very quiet and hope no one in Britain notices what is happening. Or they just lie.
These duplicities and ambiguities do not exist across the Channel.
BTW, an EU Commissioner has just come right out and said it - we will have a European public prosecutor, taking over judicial affairs, and the UK opt-outs are virtually worthless; and as soon as the Treaty is signed the EU will be after even more powers.
Here it is, linked below. After this I promise to shut up about Europe for today. Got a chapter to write.
http://euobserver.com/9/24556
Latest speculation on an Autumn GE:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/uk_news/story/0,,2139961,00.html#article_continue
Ladbrokes odds are now 3/1 but you can still get 5/1 0n Betfair for a 2007 election.
56. Still no answer to the question of how Labour will fund such a poll though. Perhaps the EU will help out?
Re 49, TJM, “How about all the presently tolerant societies right now? The Netherlands, California, Thailand? And if you don’t count ones that haven’t fallen “yet” than you can equally say “Every civilization ever has fallen.” It was just a ridiculous statement and logically stupid. And the idea that civilizations fall when they become too opulent is a fallacy used by those who either wish to stamp an authoritarian presence on society or have certain over-poetic tendencies.”
I did not say I agred with it, I said point me to one which has not in the past?
There are lots of reasons why civilisations wither though, it normally comes of people in it not being arsed enough to carry on.
BNP website accusing Labour of indulging in regular electoral fraud practices.
http://www.bnp.org.uk/news_detail.php?newsId=1629
56 Good idea. I’ll be in touch with Manuel straightaway.
‘not being arsed enough to carry on’
shurely shome mishtake ?
I notice the Gould memo says the following:
“It is inconceivable that you will not enjoy a significant honeymoon when you become leader. You need to build on this and translate it into a new mandate…”
and
“The best way of achieving this is to hold an early election after a short period of intense and compelling activity - a kind of ’shock and awe strategy’ blasting through the opposition and blasting us to the mid 40 per cents…”
Sounds to me that it was written before Brown took office. The mention of ‘blasting us to the mid 40 per cents’ is interesting. Is the Brown bounce not as significant as Labour had expected?
BNP activists claim their canvas returns showed 18-20% of the Sedgefield vote, not 9%.
Ballot box tampering is getting easier as under the new rules the counts are being delayed. By counting the numbers who go to vote and checking them against votes counted, the BNP claim to be detect significant tampering is going on in many of the elections they are involved in.
I’m not a BNP supporter, but engaging in such practices is completely counterproductive, and assists in the whipping up of hatred. It is essential that Britain gets a hold of electoral fraud as it enables those that want to ignore our institutions to justify their actions, and accelerate the breakdown of our society.
In all this talk about individual registration and postal voting fraud there are some uncomfortable truths: making registration harder has been used deliberately to reduce numbers registered and exclude groups - who tend to be poorer and less literate, postal voting vastly increases turnout in local elections - mostly from workign people who can’t get round to voting when tied up with work, kids etc. The politics kicks in because poorer voters and workign voters are more liekly to vote Labour.
Any fraud is outrageous and should be condemned - likewise the right to have and use your vote should be maintained no matter!
59, Hint to Tapestry: if you want anyone to take you seriously (though it may be too late for that) don’t use the BNP website to back up your arguments…
59, Hint to Tapestry: if you want anyone to take you seriously (though it may be too late for that) don’t use the BNP website to back up your arguments…
To combat fraud, voting should be made more difficult; sending the message that voting is an inconsequential thing that you can do by phone or from your armchair is a terrible attitude.
Maybe parties would actually realise that votes have to be won then and the scale of disaffection that really exists.
Weekend or two day voting would be a good compromise, along with individual voter registration and a clampdown on postal voting.
64. Why is it anything to do with being poor that you don’t register ? Middle class people have kids too ?
Not registering is a sign you don’t care - hence these people are unlikely to vote anyway.
Not sure why there is an assumption that a common EU Foreign Policy has to mean either UK or France losing their seats - the USSR had three (USSR, Byelorussia and Ukraine). What the EU Treaty states is that where the EU have agreed a common policy the EU “Foreign Minister ” (High whatever its now renamed) should be able to automatically pre-empt one of the national ambassadors to speak at the Security Council. Whether the other members would accept that is a matter still to be resolved.
I really cannot see any British Government accepting loss of a permanent seat - unless Ken Clarke becomes PM
68. Many middle class people also work very hard and keep unsocial hours…yet still manage to vote.
Hello All,
I am enjoying the current election speculations. However I personally believe that Spring 2008 is more likely.
The first and most practical step is to make ballot boxes more accessible. In the village near where I live, the ballot box is in the first school,which is on the fringe of the village, at the top of a hill, making it difficult for the elderly. Surely its time to look at other venues. Post offices, would be ideal they are secure, and the postperson, would know most of the local voters personally.
58. I never accused you of agreeing with it! My point is that by definition “past” societies have always fallen, thus the whole question is illogical - and has nothing to do with homosexuality. The whole discussion was just an attempt to portray gay people as the enemy of western civilization, and, regrettably, there are people in the US who are taken in by this logic.
My view is that most societies fall because of bankruptcy & foreign conquest, or resource depletion.
63 - I wouldn’t take someone’s canvass returns as being an accurate guide.
64 - So we should have weekend voting but make individual registration compulsory, that gets around perceived bias regarding any changes.
Re 73, tjm, “58. I never accused you of agreeing with it! My point is that by definition “past” societies have always fallen, thus the whole question is illogical - and has nothing to do with homosexuality. The whole discussion was just an attempt to portray gay people as the enemy of western civilization, and, regrettably, there are people in the US who are taken in by this logic.”
Yes, there are people who will believe anything.
“My view is that most societies fall because of bankruptcy & foreign conquest, or resource depletion.”
Well, the Roman empire died out because the “barbarian hordes” wanted to fight more at the end of the day.
66. Actually I know people in the BNP who were once in UKIP, and we are still in touch although I migrated back to the Conservatives in 2001 to back IDS, and am still there. Andrew Spence was UKIP as you probably know.
I don’t like the tone of much BNP propaganda, and I share your feelings there, but I don’t hold with using fraudulent electoral practices against anyone. You either believe what the BNP are saying or you don’t, but refusing to even look at the evidence, well, that’s up to you.
69. Derrr.
It would never be couched in those terms - “give up your seat now”. The EU isn’t stupid. They know that no UK government could accept that per se, it would provoke a referendum, which would be lost - and the EU train will be finally derailed, at least for Britain.
What will happen is that the rights to speak of the UK as a sovereign entity on the Council will be slowly and subtly eroded - the EU will increasingly speak for Britain and France, until our seats become a kind of quaint anachronism. Rather like the Ukraine’s seat was in the days of the Soviet Union - an interesting comparison, Ted.
Indeed this subtle erosion is precisely what the Treaty is designed to do. When it is signed, as you say, the EU Foreign Minister automatically speaks for Britain when there is an agreed position (note the Treaty also allows for majority voting on foreign affairs, for the first time). Soon after that it will be accepted that the Union speaks all the time for Britain and France and everyone else, except in very rare circumstances when there is disagreement.
Finally the seats will be combined, but given some honorific name somehow involving the word “Britain”, to spare us the shame and prevent any unseemly kerfuffle in the UK, as we finally realise what has happened.
63. I was told by the people I used to work with in UKIP, now in the BNP that they count the numbers attending voting stations, and compare the totals with the number declared at the count. The discrepancy between the two figures provides the basis of their calculations. Canvas returns are also further evidence but not conclusive I would agree.
I’ve been waiting for Sean T to get honest about America - perhaps he’d care to tell us whether he would like to see us join them (obviously a long-term project). In the short term, would he be happy to see the teaching of European languages in our schools cut back?
We are genuinely torn between the claims of language and geography, and I suspect that the reason there isn’t a push for closer political ties to the U.S. is that they don’t want us - I sometimes think the only hope for that country is for us, the Irish and the Canadians to join it to dilute the influence of their right-wing fruitcakes. Although, let’s face it, Sean probably dreams of a salary cheque from Fox News.
The BNP, and similar parties, regularly make accusations of electoral fraud to excuse poor performances (albeit the BNP performance in Sedgefield was rather good). Oswald Mosley said his canvass returns gave him a third of the vote in North Kensington in 1959 (he got 8%).
80. the mainstream parties have been known to make misleading claims about canvass returns too, haven’t they? Sometimes they even publish bogus ‘polls’ allegedly based on them, I understand.
Simple point. Increasing turnout by making it easier to vote will achieve NOTHING. Politicians know that full well. The only ones who advocate a crude change in the voting system are those who believe it will give them an advantage.
Reasons for the dienchantment with politics are many. Lack of choice/lack of trust/lack of relevance being the most prominent. I wonder if Nick Palmer has ever come across a dissatisfied member of the public who said they were keen to make their political voice heard, but found voting just too damned difficult.
My greatest concern is the register itself. In Haringey there are vast numbers of people from countries not in the EU or Commonwealth all registered to vote. Unless they have each been granted citizenship EROs should challenege them to proove it - or remove them.
79. It’s not my first choice - joining America. But if it came to it I wouldn’t desperately mind us being a kind of super-brilliant 51st state. We would keep our way of life and all that and determine our own affairs, but we’d get the best of the American system - the respect for freedom, and the rather admirable Constitution.
It is noticeable that American states already have more freedoms within the American Federation than European states do in the “non-imperial empire” (on the death penalty for instance).
However I know many Britons would not like this. So I wouldn’t foist this dramatic change on the British people without asking their permission first, in an explicit referendum.
Europhiles aren’t that honest.
Ultimately your point about the Anglosphere, made frivolously I know, is quite a good one. We certainly have at least as much in common with Ireland and Australia and Canada - and yes America - as we do with Romania, Germany and Portugal.
Put colloquially, the English speaking nations are like Family, while the Europeans are more like Friends and Neighbours. There is a big difference, emotionally. Yet we seek to allow Germans, Romanians and Portuguese to govern us.
It is bizarre, and unsustainable, and in the end the disconnect will bust open.
63. Tapestry, you seem to see conspiracies everywhere. What an exciting world you must live in. I think it is far more likely that lots of voters lied to the BNP to get rid of them on the doorstep. “Yeah yeah we’ll vote for you.” etc.
I certainly want the registration process to be tightened up. I’m tired of the fraud, and it is a result of Labour trying to get more votes. If their supporters can’t be bothered to stretch their legs or Labour can’t be bothered to change how and when we can vote, that’s their problem.
I don’t agree with compulsory voting - it is someone’s right not to vote.
The BNP have successfully challenged election results in the past, and they are considering bringing a claim about Sedgefield I am told. I tend to the view that the claims of election fraud are likely to be genuine.
There is clearly intention to create poorly run voting sytems as regards postal voting fraud being so easy to get away with. The recent alteration to the count permitting them to take pace over two days clearly craeates further opportunity for elctoral fraud through ballot box tampering.
I have little faith that there is any inclination on the part of the Labour government to ensure voting in this country is a fair representation of the views of the electorate.
The Guardian quotes the ODIHR critique of British general election fraudulent practices in 2005.
http://politics.guardian.co.uk/voting/story/0,,1543772,00.html
85. the reason I am inclined to believe the BNP, is that substantial electoral fraud has already been reported nationally since 2005. Click on the Guardian link in my last post. It’s not just the BNP. It’s international organisations that monitor elections saying Britain is a basket case. The evidence is substantial, and accumulative. I do tend to look at evidence and not believe what my newspaper and TV like to tell me. That’s why I’m a blogger. If I believed the media, I wouldn’t bother.
Isn’t it amazing how anti-europeans would love to join a REAL federal superstate, i.e. the USA! I would suggest we have more i common with our social democratic neighbours than the Christian right in America. 51st State? Hell no. Why do you want to be subservient to the USA when we can (and we CAN) be equal partners in Europe?
I’m not aware that the BNP have succeeded in overturning any election result on the ground of fraud.
89 I don’t want to be subservient to either. I just want my country to be left to mind its own business.
If we *had* to make a choice, then I suppose it would make sense to tie up with people who were ethnically, cuturally, and linguistically similar to us.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/uk/article377468.ece
this is the ‘disgrace a banana republic’ story. I’ll check again what happened to the BNP councillor that ‘won but was not a lowed to take her seat’ story.
86. “I don’t agree with compulsory voting - it is someone’s right not to vote.”
You still have the right to abstain, you just have to do so in person.
89. I said it is not my first choice. My first choice is for a sovereign and independent Britain, trading freely with Europe and staying very good friends with America - which is what most British people want.
However if given the stark choice between absorption into the non-imperial empire of Europe, with its hideous lack of democracy, or joining with America, which, for all its flaws, is a dynamic and truly democratic place, yes I would plump for the latter.
The idea that America is dominated by some rabid Christian Right is palpable nonsense, a caricature beloved of unthinking lefties. Have you been to America? You can do better.
Whatever Britain’s destiny, we are approaching a moment of truth. And all I really want right now is a vote on the matter. The vote promised us by this government.
Just give us the vote. The vote you promised.
83 - I think in practice the EROs just accept the names filled in on the form. It’s a bit of a minefield because you can only guess at someone’s nationality from the name - the person may have become a British citizen.
This is the sharon ebanks story, who was told she had won a seat on Birmingham Council, but the decision was subsequently overturned claiming votes had been counted twice. There had been two recounts. The whole thing seemed a bit odd to say the least.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/england/west_midlands/5054554.stm
88. I would agree that the posting vote methods need tightening up because there is the temptation to harvest votes by some unscrupulous candidates but to extrapolate, as you seem to be doing, that there is fraud on the part of the people counting the votes is fanciful to say the least. It would require the collusion of several officials at a time when they are surrounded by observers from all the political parties who jump on any perceived irregularity immediately. They would all have to keep their mouths shut for ever more. Unlikely.
With the reputation that the BNP have I think that lots of people would say on the doorstep that they support them out of fear.
The BNP do not yet have the electoral experience to read canvas returns in the same way as the major parties.
I’m sure that in some households voters of different voting intentions just agree with each other not to vote as their votes would cancel each other out.
Also to many, what’s the point of voting Tory in a 75% Labour stronghold.
The solution is to make every vote count through some form of Transferable Vote
Just found this story of voting fraud in Scotland. Sounds pretty bad.
http://scotlandonsunday.scotsman.com/index.cfm?id=617522007
Ted @ 69 re UN seats — the permanent members of the Security Council (who have the power of veto) are the USA, UK, France, Russia and China. Those are the seats that matter, and that Britain and France would be required to give up: required by the EU itself (which will want a seat for itself) as well as other states.
and from this year’s council elections in Nottingahm allegations of fraud against Labour by Lib Dems.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/england/nottinghamshire/6655675.stm
84: “However I know many Britons would not like this. So I wouldn’t foist this dramatic change on the British people without asking their permission first, in an explicit referendum.
Europhiles aren’t that honest.”
That’s it in a nutshell for me, it’s the creeping EU-isation of the UK. If the EU is so great, why not let us vote for it? We have slipped into it unawares over decades, as politicians of all colours have lied to us about the extent of the changes which are happening to our laws and sovereignty.
It’s a perfectly valid opinion to want ‘ever closer union’, there are arguments for that I suppose, but they are never made, the pretence is that things are just ‘tidied up’ and ‘nothing of substance has changed with the treaty of XYZ’. It has gone too far, we need a referendum on it. One where people could also vote FOR it all, and where pro-EU people would have the chance to make their case. If they are right, they’d win wouldn’t they…?
For the government to continue to pretend this treaty is nothing like the constitution for which they promised a referendum is risible and dishonest. Shame on them.
99. ‘Allegations are circulating that votes are already being bought for as little as £20′
Remarkable - in the early 1800s votes were changing hands for similar, and often greater sums - which allowing for inflation suggests people don’t much value their votes these days. Even allowing for the bigger electorates being a borough-monger today looks cheap. Helpful if you have a £15mn deficit.
98. FPTP for MPs, % of vote in country for the Lords ?
I cannot find any successful results being overturned the other way by the BNP, Sean - only the one against them, although they claim several police enquiries are ongoing.
They make use of media tactics used against them to win sympathy - as here
http://www.bnp.org.uk/news_detail.php?newsId=1600
It’s stupid of the BBC to be so blatant, as it only helps the BNP to create the ‘we’re the victims’ narrative, which is so appealing to a certain sector. Too much obvious media bias, and dubious electoral practices in use, and it gives them an easy passage.
Electoral fraud affects all of us. It seems to be universal and rife. Surely it’s time to tighten up and for opposition parties to maintain pressure on the Labour Government about it.
At least there are blogs now where media bias/lies can be corrected and commented on. But lectoral fraud seems to be unchecked.
Can the Tories even afford to win the next election under Cameron?
Whilst I don’t think it likely that they will even be the largest party after the next election, and that they certainly cannot dump Cameron who is their best chance of doing well, will the worst result for the Tories be to actually win an overall majority?
Given that any such overall majority is likely to be about as slim as Major’s was in 1992, Cameron would be instantly in the hands of his hardliners who would refuse to back any ‘liberal’ measures. They are already at him whilst in opposition - imagine if he tried to, for eg, abolish grammar schools whilst in govt!
It is highly unlikely that such a govt would last 5 years like Major’s did (and would they really want another 5 years of similar excruciating clinging to power for the country to despise?.
But how would the electorate respond to a failure by Cameron to last the distance? The Tories would be as divided and exposed as ever, and the party would surely suffer another drubbing at the polls.
Surely the best result for the Tories is to force Brown into a hung parliament relying on the Liberals and face a 2014/15 election as the only alternative to the Lib Lab coalition?
Correct me if wrong, the only reason to leak plans for an early election is that there will be no early election.
106. I think for Cameron to win a majority he needs a tipping point against Brown - like 1997. If that happens then all bets are off on the size of the majority - could be mega.
Pimpernel @ 106 — is abolishing grammar schools a liberal measure? Historically, it is surely Thatcherite!
94. I think you underestimate how much power the Christian Right has in politics and influence. 44% of Americans think Jesus will return and initiate the End of Days within 50 years. 55% believe the Bible is the word of God and literally true. 79% believe Jesus was born of virgin birth. The Supreme Court is one nomination away from an ultra-Conservative majority which can decide on abortion limits, death penalty, religion in schools etc. The Christian coalition is one of the most powerful and organised voting blocs in the US, and the Republican party simply cannot wield power without them. The church network is an extremely effective way of communicating Conservative Republicans messages out to Christians to a listening, acceptant audience.
But that’s not the only reason we shouldn’t join the US. Another is the huge amounts of influence special interest groups and corporations have. I’ve heard your rants regarding cash-for-peerages - well that’s nothing compared to US politics. Its common and widely accepted to no great uproar that Senators and Representatives vote on issues to get funding from certain parts of the lobby sphere, whether its the NRA or the AARP. US politics is as corrupt as hell and isn’t that much above Italy or Spain.
If we had to join into a federation of some sort I would suggest we join Canada, Australia and New Zealand, where we all have a political culture of parliamentary democracy. I love the US but there are vast differences in culture, and just because our nations have common descent doesn’t necessarily make us closer together.
106. An extremely good point.
71. RedFlump. I agree re 2008 being the most likely. I am not offering these prices but I would suggest
2007 6/1
2008 5/4
2009 5/2
2010 4/1
2009 has always been the favourite but is drifting. It makes far more sense for Brown to either go early or late. Early= 2007-8 and late = 2010 in my book.
Well, posting voting is wide open to abuse. For example I vote postally in Cheadle, where my parents’ house is, despite the fact I am rarely there. It’s just more likely to be marginal than where I am at the moment and my vote will count for much more. The one time I genuinely was out of the country, in Poland, my ballot paper arrived the day after the election, and I read that Cheadle was the most marginal seat in the country. So I’m not going to try to declare that the postal voting system is as it should be.
But some of the posts by regular posters who should know better this morning have been shameful. The prevailing attitude seems to be ‘well if you don’t really care and aren’t prepared to jump through hoops to vote, why should you be allowed? Let’s just leave it to us who care so deserve to vote.’ Elitist and wonky claptrap.
There’s two sides to the coin - people will vote if they perceive the benefit is worth the effort, so of course there’s a need to convince people that their vote matters - we saw this in the French presidential elections - but democracy is hindered when voting is made more complex than necessary. The signatures on postal voting forms, polling stations at tops of hills as referenced above etc. By all means, let’s have polling stations in supermarkets and post offices, and yes, let’s push forward with internet voting. The ballot box may be sacrosanct to the majority on here, but as the current voting system is so different to anything else most people will do, it is mostly an unfamiliar and off-putting place.
Weekends would be interesting - have any polls been carried out showing who may/may not vote in that case (Tories jetting off for weekend breaks etc)
In Italy, one can vote only by proving one’s identity by ID card or passport. And more than 80% of the electorate shows up to vote.
112 Yes, I would mark it up similarly, StJohn. I’d perhaps have 2009 a bit shorter and 2010 a bit longer, but not by a lot.
Surprised no comments here yet about the report into the de Menezes shooting. Met Police not coming out of it too well.
116. I notice Sir Ian “slippery” Blair dodged the flack (again).
“44% of Americans think Jesus will return and initiate the End of Days within 50 years. 55% believe the Bible is the word of God and literally true. 79% believe Jesus was born of virgin birth”
Hard to believe that so many (presumably) educated people can hold such opinions. The first is particularly amusing - why now and not centuries ago, or in the future? Subconscious self-persuasion as an attempt to make religion relevant to today’s world?
94 - becoming a subservient state of the usa is too horrific to contemplate.
but for a game of historical what ifs…uk joining would get what…60-70 electoral college votes? Would tip the balance of power away from the republicans who would do very badly here and without having the maths to hand, mean they would always have to win california to have a chance in a pres election. Add canada to the new electoral entity and the republicans would be in the dustbin of history. Maybe it’s not such a bad idea after all!
117 Has he?
abc It wasn’t a Brown camp leak. It’s an old document put together two years ago and has no bearing on whether an election will be held in October or not. The decision on whether or not to go will largely depend on how good the polls look in mid September. If GB wants to go early Labour will borrow the funds necessary as Newsnight suggested yesterday. If they win they won’t have any trouble repaying over time. If they lose they’re f*****d but that will be the least of their problems.
113. Nipping down to the nearest polling site really isn’t “jumping through hoops” to vote. No-one here has argued against more accessible polling stations, or better times to vote. Its not about the sanctity of the voting booth, its about the sanctity of a secure, anonymous vote.
You point out the problems with postal voting, but internet voting is even worst. Not only does it have the same problem with interference from family/landlords etc, but it can potentially be altered/intercepted by anyone who has managed to gain access to your computer through hacking/trojans/viruses. Thus where postal voting can only potentially be tampered with by people in your home or the post office, e-voting can be tampered with by potentially anyone on the internet. There are enough problems with online banking, and thats when people complain when they see funds have gone missing. If you’re voting, the receiver at the electoral office won’t know that the vote is the wrong one. The only way to make up for this is to have some system to check which way you officially voted, but this would have to maintain peoples names against their vote, seriously risking voter anonymity. Its an idiotic idea and is just the sort of thing that you get from people like Blair, who couldn’t even e-mail without help but told us all e-voting was the way to go.
114. Voting is always higher when people hate the other side - and when you have people like Berlusconi about there will be a lot of hate indeed!
120:
Yes. Assistant Commissioner Andy Hayman has copped it (forgive the pun). Sir Ian seems to have been kept in the dark over events.
118 People like to believe what they are told, Andrew. So much easier than formulating your own view. Nothing new in that.
122 But doesn’t that raise another question, Rob?
In what kind of organisation do the senior managers not tell the chief exec. what’s going on?
117. Along with everyone else. Last night’s news had a fascinating insight into today’s Britain, when it suggested that Andy Hayman would likely not face serious disciplinary action because he is apparently well thought of by the government. So much for an independent police service.
121: ‘If GB wants to go early Labour will borrow the funds…’
Gordon, why are you referring to yourself in the third person? Don’t you know that’s a sign of paranoia?
121. Borrow the funds from whom? at a commercial rate? with what collaterial? To be paid back how, exactly?
126. We are lucky though to have him contributing here Robusticus!
118. Last December, some staggeringly high number of Americans (above 20% I think) thought Jesus would return THIS YEAR!
In terms of education, when you have institutions like Liberty University, which teach that humans and dinosaurs lived alongside each other you have to worry. The geographic divide between ultra-conservative, “patriotic”, religious believers in the heartlands and progressive thinkers further out is huge and prevents any debate going on. Then you have conservative talkshows and FOX news which puts out this constant propaganda that mainstream news is all liberal bias and not to be trusted, even factually. You just get groupthink on a mass scale.
As for the virgin birth figure, thats just the power of religion as even enlightened thinkers feel that they have to maintain the fundamental beliefs to still be a Christian. And very few people are willing to leave the faith entirely as thats just seen as immoral across most of the country. Good people are surely God-fearing Christians right?
127: ‘Borrow the funds from whom?’
The Co-operative Bank, according to Newsnight.
110. I agree. When I look around the world the countries which I think we are closest to are the old White Dominions - Canada, New Zealand, Australia. Open, free, liberal, democratic, common lawed, English-speaking parliamentary democracies with the same Queen, and with welfare systems.
I know Europhiles love to pretend that we are closer to Germans and Bulgarians than Kiwis and Aussies but it just ain’t so. On the continent they have vastly different traditions - mercantilism, Napoleonic law, Catholicism, etc. They have histories of conquest , war, shame and turmoil that we simply don’t share.
Ergo - the idea that we should subordinate ourselves to a non-imperial empire where we will be governed by people from these cultures and countries so alien to us is just absurd. We should be their friends and allies and very good neighbours - but there is no good reason for them to legislate for what happens in our country. Not for u