PBC breaks the 750,000 mark for the second time
August 3rd, 2007
The by elections help us to another record breaking month
July was another record breaking month on Politicalbetting. We had a total of 759,452 hits which was only the second time we have been above the three-quarters of a million mark. The last month when this happened was in May when the total finished up at more than 772,000.
Looking at the daily data, parts of which are recorded here, we got a huge boost on the day of and in the immediate aftermath of the Ealing Southall and Sedgefield by elections.
What is extraordinary is how the site has an enthusiastic 24/7 user base. Even in the very small hours of the night between 4am and 6am we averaged more than 100 hits an hour throughout the month.
Our busiest hourly segment is between noon and 1pm when we get an average of almost 2,000 hits.
Even in the hour after midnight the average amount of traffic is about 750.
This is a great site to operate and what makes it stand out is the way hundreds of the audience post comments on a regular basis.
Thanks to everybody for their support. Your enthusiasm keeps me motivated.
Mike Smithson
MessageSpace Advertising
Well done Mike, my busiest day was 5,000 in a day and the busiest hour over 500!
Still, my blog rolls on!
There are some good articles here and some good discussion.
You have a blog, Benedict?
759,452 what?
Wow that is lots of hits. Congrats.
I am back from my beer hunting trip to Franconia and haven’t seen any news all week. Details of the 30 breweries blah blah on my blog blah blah…
What’s gone down in politics world then?
Thanks for all you do Mike. Sorry to niggle about today’s other post but I think you’ll agree that getting Nick Sparrow on was a great success. I hope we can encourage other pollsters on whenever you have a thread about a particular poll.
O/T. A powerful Channel Four programme making the case for widespread prescription of heroin to addicts on the NHS. I’ve long believed in this. At the moment the availibility of heroin on prescription is extremely limited. All addicts should have access to it.
Prescription means that addicts get clean needles, don’t die of overdoses , and don’t have to commit crime to finance their habit. This in turn keeps them out of jail. They don’t have to turn to prostitution which limits the spread of AIDS.
They have regular contact with the medical profession so that gradual attempts can be made to reduce and in turn remove their dependency.
Presription also means that the terrible fear about getting the next fix is removed. Without it their whole lives are dominated with getting the cash to pay for their habit, usually by engaging in illegal activity of on kind or another. They can then start to live something resembling a normal life.
Why the hell doesn’t one of the political parties get behind this idea which would cut out the drug dealers from one of their principle sources of profit?
Heroin prescription works in Switzerland. It would work here.
Congratulations Mike! A great site.
Benedict. To become the Chrisine Keeler of bloggers I think you’ll have to appeal to a wider circle. Yours is just too Tory and there are too many of those as it is. Try a bit of irreverence. Your last two headlines “Shut up Miraj!” and “Shut up Brady!”is hardly going to get the uncommitted rushing out of the pubs!
Welcome back Stonch. Thought this might have got you depressed and absent from the site. Bummer eh?
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/health/6921998.stm
re 3. sorry that should have been there and I’ve changed. The number refers to hits or page down-loads.
mike any idea on how many official lurkers there are. For example - how many people do you think will read this comment?
Brilliant - well done Mike. All we need is another by election - preferably in a Tory seat. Would prefer for the member to resign - bankruptcy, sex, or something rather than actual death I suppose.
9 - I just did.
Re 6, Roger, I write my own blog for the joy of doing it!
I write about what I want to write!
Tr 2, TJM, “You have a blog, Benedict?”
*cough* yes as it happens I do!
It is over here:
http://aconservatives.blogspot.com/
Icarus, the luck of the draw must mean that if a by-election did occur it could well be in a seat, where the Conservatives are a good second to Labour with the Liberal Democrats way back. That will be a test, and if the Conservatives won, could transform the political landscape.
Sorry Benedict I thought you were turning green when you compared your figures with mike’s. If you’re happy to be just another blogger treading the boards so be it but if you want them rushing out of the Lords for the latest ‘must read’ from Benedict you’ll have to surprise1
Is that a picture of Stonch on the thread below?
Congratulations Mike
Your motivation keeps us coming back for more and the site is always a pleasure to read.
Congrats on the site popularity! Have you a breakdown of how many people log on simply to laugh at the many comedy characters who post here….?
O/T and apologies if it’s on another thread, but can any betting aficionados explain the Davydenko/Betfair controversy? It was extraordinarily badly explained on five live earlier, something about £1M+ matched on him winning at 4.3 whilst a set up, having been 1.2 at the start(??) I thought that to match a bet on Betfair you needed as many people to think he would win as thought he would lose. How did his price drift? He retired injured, is the thought that he was ‘taking a fall’ to use boxing parlance? In my ignorance I was entirely mystified by the whole thing.
Congratulations Mike.
From humble beginnings this site has become a respected contribution to the political scene.
It would indeed be interesting to know the number of lurkers as opposed to posters. I don’t suppose there’s any way of estimating the figures?
16 - I thought that to match a bet on Betfair you needed as many people to think he would win as thought he would lose.
No - you simply need people with complementary views of the probabilities. If as many people think A’s chance of beating B is greater than 33% as think it’s less than 33%, you will have a liquid market clearing at odds of 2/1 against A (or 3.0 in Betfair’s odds convention).
The anomaly here was that the higher ranked player was well ahead, and yet the odds reflected the market’s belief that he was going to lose - which he did, in the kind of circumstances you might expect if the result had been contrived.. Suspicious.
18: So if he was a set up, and he’s higher ranked, I would have thought he was going to win. So I would have had to offer generous odds to a fellow punter to match with me right? (Or is it vice versa?)
What I still don’t get is that the winners on Betfair are taking money off other punters, who become the losers, so in order for the total amount bet to be 10 times higher (as it was here) you would need as many people (or as much money) NOT in on any conspiracy as there was in on it. Wouldn’t you?? I don’t get, even in theory, how Betfair can be fleeced, they are raking in commission come what may, and it’s punters who take the losses. Maybe i’ve missed the whole point :-~
And maybe I don’t know how to do anythign other than a simple smiley
*experiments*
:->
Hmmmm
1 out of 4. Jeez. Anyone got a link?
Well no-one else is here Mike, but the hit count is rising.
19 - you are quite right, Betfair’s losses would be reputational only, they wouldn’t directly lose cash as a result of this.
Supposing, hypothetically, you had rigged a match, yes, you would indeed need as many people not to be in on the conspiracy as are in on it - as a conspirator, you would simply offer them odds that, to anyone who doesn’t know that the match is fixed, are too generous to pass up.
But doesn’t all insider trading rely on the misplaced good faith of those who aren’t in on the conspiracy? I sell my shares in X plc at £1 and go away happy until the next day a takeover bid at £2 a share emerges. I certainly wouldn’t have sold had I known this.
23: Thanks, very interesting. I am as much intrigued by the number of people in the world logged on to “Betfair: Davydenko vs random” as I am by the alleged fixing!
How vulnerable are these kind of sites to rigging, or at least some kind of odds-forcing?
I am too chicken to bet, I was brought up to believe gambling was in a similar moral category to smoking crack and cheeking your elders! I don’t think that now, but this kind of thing keeps my money even more firmly in my pocket i must admit.
Well done Mike, congrats
Jon & BV
Rude things are sometimes said about Betfai, sometimes on this site, but they have a good reputation for helping to root out chears. They have excellent audit trails and have shown considerable willingness to pass them on to the various sports authorities if the latter wish to investigate cases of possible cheating.
Betfair will know who was punting and if the Tennis authorities are interested, I am sure Betfair will let them now.
Jon & BV
Rude things are sometimes said about Betfai, sometimes on this site, but they have a good reputation for helping to root out chears. They have excellent audit trails and have shown considerable willingness to pass them on to the various sports authorities if the latter wish to investigate cases of possible cheating.
Betfair will know who was punting and if the Tennis authorities are interested, I am sure Betfair will let them know.
27 What I am really saying, somewhat incoherently, is i) well done Betfair and ii) Davydenko could be in deep poo.
How much poo depends on the extent to which the Tennis Authorities wish to pursue the matter.
Off to uncle, I think. Been a long day.
28 - agreed.
To pick up Jon C’s point at 24, Betfair (in the absence of it taking explicit anti-fraud action like this) is more vulnerable to rigging than conventional bookies. A conventional bookie will be inherently suspicious of anyone trying to place large sums, particularly on an outsider, and is quite likely to refuse it. With Betfair a fraudster would be able to put a large amount on through very many small bets with individuals - there is more possibility of stealth.
This is not to say that there is anything improper about Betfair, it’s simply an aspect of the betting exchange model.
Could foot and mouth be about to scupper a second general election in six years?
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/england/6930684.stm
GB heading back to No 10 on first day of holiday…
Let’s hope and pray this is an isolated outbreak. We don’t want 2001 again!
Well if there isn’t a GE in October, as I’ve been predicting, I’ve got my excuse: Sod’s law!
re 29. PtP. Uncle? Rhyming slang perhaps?
A couple of quick on-topic comments - firstly, well done on the continued success of the site - the figures tell their own story. Secondly, do you still keep track of the number of posts and if so, how many have there been now?
And now to what could be the big breaking story - the re-emergence of Foot and Mouth in the UK. Hopefully, the case in Surrey will be isolated and contained. The lessons should have been learned from six years ago and one hopes that they will now be put into practice. This will be a much more serious test of the government than the floods crisis.
28, 30: Thanks, again interesting stuff.
Might stick to a quid in the Grand National sweepstake at work…
Actually at work I did also have a fiver in the fantasy football (about which I thought i knew something, and in which I came 2nd last) and a fiver in the fantasy formula 1 (about which I know jack, and in which I won a tenner). Must be a lesson in there somewhere.
Is Gordon Brown a betting man? I guess not as the “son of the Manse” but if he had balls and faniced a punt he’d call an election now wouldn’t he? I fail to see how it can get better for him than this, with house repossessions, inflation and interest rates all on the rise suggesting future gloom, and Cameron being quite rubbish/unlucky (delete as your partisan leanings dicate) at the moment. Is it a case of 2 years in the hand is worth 5 in the bush?
Mr Cameron told tonight’s Channel 4 News that he was ready for an election in two months’ time.
“We’ve got the candidates*, we’ve very effectively raised money, cleared a lot of our debts, and we’re ready to fight an election on that ground, and a manifesto is under preparation at the moment,” he said.
* Inc Tony Lit!
Many congratulations Mike - the number of hits reflects the quality of comment and the value of the pb.c community. When you are seen as Rupert Murdoch is now, in 10 years or so, I will be telling my kids that I knew Mike Smithson and pb.c in the early days….
31/34 - Certainly the case in Surrey can be isolated but containing the disease is a different matter - if, like last time, it’d already spread across the country before the first case was detected.
I hope that the government has learned a few lessons from its, frankly, disgraceful handling of the 2001 outbreak.
I agree that it’s a serious test for the government but it’s probably not one that they’ll lose much sleep over. Speaking as someone formerly of the agriculture industry I can tell you that the general public completely failed to grasp the seriousness of the matter last time around - and I don’t see this time being any different.
All I can say is bring back Tim Yeo - he was the only politician, of any party, who fully understood the situation in 2001.
Congratulations Mike!
On this week’s council byelection mentioned in the old thread, I learnt from vote2007 that “This vacancy was due to the resignation of a Labour councillor after he was convicted of setting up hidden cameras to spy on women”
argh, the 19% drop in Lab % is less surprising now…
38. I think you are missing an important point here. This is a big story.
The public may or may not have failed to grasp the seriousness of the matter last time. But they will recall and be repeatedly reminded by the media of the vast culling, disruption, fear and expense that occurred as a result of that outbreak. They will also be reminded of the fact that this Labour government was viewed to have greatly mismanaged the issue.
This is Brown’s first major “event” and to my mind makes a 2007 election highly unlikely.
39 “due to the resignation of a Labour councillor after he was convicted of setting up hidden cameras to spy on women…”
Hadn’t really got the hang of Neighbourhood Watch, had he?
Once again, well done Mike. At the first pb.com party I told you that I thought you had a tiger by the tail - so far your tiger-riding skills would put most front-benchers to shame
40 This is Brown’s first major “event”….
Well, only if you over-look the fire (London, Glasgow airport) and flood. On his current form, pestilence was always on the cards. What odds can I get on a plague of frogs next?
40. Lt’s hope and pray it’s nothing like as bad as 2001. That was a nightmare.
If it is as bad… it’s always struck me that this would be one of the easiest ways for a terrorist to wreak economic havoc: start a foot and mouth outbreak. All you need is a vial which you could bring in, with your luggage, undetected, from anywhere. Extremely easy to disguise.
Once you are in the country: go to a farm, inject a handy cow: bingo.
Seems I’m not alone in my paranoia:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/ukresponse/story/0,,868991,00.html
5. I don’t know. Giving heroin to addicts was such a disaster the last time it was tried I can’t see the government going for it. Not saying it wouldn’t work but is the problem big enough to warrant such a cure? Outside the pages of the Daily Mail, are we really seeing a heroin-fueled crime spree?
41. Agreed re fire and flood. But the former was not a negative “event” in terms of political impact and the latter was managed OK and was always likely to resolve in the short term. This has far more potential to destabilise the government.
40 - Yes, people will certainly pause to consider the fact that this’ll be this Labour government’s 2nd Foot and Mouth crisis (if it is a crisis) but then they’ll move on to something more interesting to them.
The Conservatives, like last time, can’t attack too hard because they totally messed up on BSE.
I have no faith in the ability of any government to handle an agricultural crisis and even less faith in the desire of the public to hold them to account over one. It’s just never going to happen.
Re 33, Chris A “re 29. PtP. Uncle? Rhyming slang perhaps?”
Uncle Ted?
Incidentally, if we’re on the subject of paranoia and loopy conspiracy theories…
I remember attending a job interview in the summer of 2001 at which one of my fellow candidates, by chance also fomerly of the farming community, told me of her belief that the 2001 Foot and Mouth outbreak was started deliberately by the Labour government as revenge against farmers for the fuel protests.
I hasten to add that I think she was talking complete and utter nonsense.
re 49. I was thinking Uncle Ned - it’s sounds familiar.
On foot and mouth, this out break is of course in the Surrey of the North 9at least as far as I am concerned, I live in Sussex).
There have been many outbreaks of foot and mouth over the years, including 300 yards from where I lived some years back with no epidemic.
The key is control, and how widespread animal transport from that farm is.
In short it may be nothing at all or a big major deal.
Re 40, StJohn “This is Brown’s first major “event” and to my mind makes a 2007 election highly unlikely.”
Depending on the nature of the farm, it could be over by Monday, government super hero’s or drag on for months.
In the former case i can see a GE being more likely in the autumn, in the latter not will 2010.
re 43, Amrquee Mark, “40 This is Brown’s first major “event”….
Well, only if you over-look the fire (London, Glasgow airport) and flood. On his current form, pestilence was always on the cards. What odds can I get on a plague of frogs next? ”
I must ring William Hill!
Re 50: Yes I remember hearing that rubbish.
Back to the original subject, I read this site every day, enjoy the postings and comments and find the links to other sites most useful.
Thanks, Mike.
Re 51, Chris A , yes probably!
49 Uncle Ned. (I think he means bed, not his garden shed).
Foot & Mouth is a real worry. We hope it is only the one farm and quickly isolated. Unfortunately F&M is a highly contagious virus, and the potential to spread quickly and widely exists.
I remember well driving up the A/M 74 through Dumfries and Galloway in 1991. Littering the horizon were the smoky trails of literally dozens of farm-based pyres. A horrific and soul-destroying scene.
As an activist and smallholder, all thoughts of an election have gone out of my mind. I just hope we have a more rational and less politicised approach to any potential outbreak than last time.
Re 55, The old Codger “Re 50: Yes I remember hearing that rubbish.”
Regrettably the beauty of your average conspiracy theory is that it is so hard to disprove, yet there is always things can point to that back the theory up.
It is a bit like astrology.
53. Benedict. I don’t see an upside for the government here. Even if, as we must all hope, it is dealt with swiftly and effectively, it still reminds the public of last time. At best they come out even.
Also as “event” follows “event”, it would surely be viewed as a huge indulgence for Brown to go to the country early, on the back of his honeymoon bounce, for perceived personal electoral advantage? His job as PM is to lead the country through difficult times and these are increasingly unfolding.
From a betting point of view I am now a buyer of Gordon Brown weeks.
I have 3 pieces of advice for Gordon Brown as he handles this situation.
1) Listen carefully to your experts
2) Act quickly upon their recommenations
3) Chain Nick Brown down in a dungeon until the immediate crisis has passed.
Tony Blair failed to do any of the above in 2001.
On topic. Great news Mike and congratulations.
Politicalbetting.com is the place to be this summer!
Mike - sorry, after tonight’s worrying news, I forgot to congratulate you on your success. A great site.
PS What’s this “awaiting moderation” malarkey with my post at 57?
Re 58 StJohn, I am about to write an article on the foot and mouth out break.
I was thinking if giving it the title of “Foot and mouth in the Surrey of the North” (Well I live in Sussex so it is
) but am now thinking of
“Foot and Mouth, government over reacts whilst it does not do enough”
to highlight a very real point. Either this is and always would have been a very minor incident of no consequence (which is quite likely if it is a dairy heard) or it is a major calamity and this is far too little far too late as the disease has already spread far and wide.
I don’t see any damage to the government from the former, (nor much benefit) but, if it has spread and is dealt with quickly (after all it would not have spread to many farms) then that just goes to show how good Gordon is compared to Tony.
58 - What - astrology isn’t true?
60 - Yes and if 1) recommends mass vaccination as well as targetted slaughter, then 2) means implementing that. I am normally rational but subscribe to a bit of the conspiracy theory when I see how Blair/Brown (Nick) refused to consider that approach last time.
Re 63, Robin Wiggs, “58 - What - astrology isn’t true?”
Did I say conspiracy theories were not true?;)
The foot and mouth outbreak is a few miles from me. I’m in the ’surveillance zone’ apparently, maybe I should go and check out a few cows tomorrow.
65 - Phew. For I moment I thought you meant Russel Grant was a fibber…
66 ukpaul - that isn’t particularly funny.
re 66, Robin,
My 57 seems to be stuck awaiting moderation.
It said:
Foot & Mouth is a real worry. We hope it is only the one farm and quickly isolated. Unfortunately F&M is a highly contagious virus, and the potential to spread quickly and widely exists.
I remember well driving up the A/M 74 through Dumfries and Galloway in 1991. Littering the horizon were the smoky trails of literally dozens of farm-based pyres. A horrific and soul-destroying scene.
As an activist and smallholder, all thoughts of an election have gone out of my mind. I just hope we have a more rational and less politicised approach to any potential outbreak than last time.
I am in the surveillance zone, I wasn’t joking. I presume a certain element of vigilance is important.
The village is called Normandy, just to the west of Guildford.
3rd attempt - think the word v 1 r u s triggers the moderation filter:
My 57 seems to be stuck awaiting moderation.
It said:
Foot & Mouth is a real worry. We hope it is only the one farm and quickly isolated. Unfortunately F&M is a highly contagious vir us, and the potential to spread quickly and widely exists.
I remember well driving up the A/M 74 through Dumfries and Galloway in 1991. Littering the horizon were the smoky trails of literally dozens of farm-based pyres. A horrific and soul-destroying scene.
As an activist and smallholder, all thoughts of an election have gone out of my mind. I just hope we have a more rational and less politicised approach to any potential outbreak than last time.
re70. Robin “I remember well driving up the A/M 74 through Dumfries and Galloway in 1991. Littering the horizon were the smoky trails of literally dozens of farm-based pyres. A horrific and soul-destroying scene.”
Was there an outbreak in 1991? It just shows how well managed it was, that it was not a national problem.
I had one just down the road from me in 1981, no big deal, just one farm, as far as I knew.
71 - I think he means 2001 - and IIRC 1981 was the outbreak previous to that.
Re 72, Andy G, the 1981 outbreak seemed to me to be no big drama. Am I wrong?
Well, I am off to bed!
Good night all!
Election Results: Thursday 2nd August 2007.
Gosport BC, Town
Lab 480 (41.7; -19.8), Con 320 (27.8; +0.9), LD Heather Carr 200 (17.4; +5.8), Ind 71 (6.2; +6.2), English Democrats 50 (4.3; +4.3), Green 31 (2.7; +2.7).
Majority 160. Turnout 32.5%. Lab hold. Last fought 2006.
Benedict - you are right. Only a handful of farms (in Essex?) I think. There was a big outbreak in 1967 in the Gloucester/Worcester/Shropshire/Cheshire area - but not as big or widespread as 2001. ‘Only’ 400,000 animals were destroyed.
Mike that is fantastic news and I am glad that you still enjoy it, the effort you and Robert put into the site is really appreciated.
Any one got odds ready for PB.com hitting the 1 million mark at the next GE?
You mentioned that you were going to have several threads running next time to dilute the traffic, I wondered about the idea of separating them by regions in the UK so that people following a particular area or with relevant information could post or move around to find the relevant information quickly for betting purposes? PB.com is the place to be on an election night but also some excellent information from individual bloggers helped. Mr Eugenides was fantastic reporting on Scottish elections.
38.Steven, totally agree. But am I right in thinking that it was not just the public but also DEFRA that failed to realise the seriousness of the situation? I thought that we allowed the transport of animals to continue for too?
43. Must admit when I heard the news tonight I looked at Brown, que footage of him almost running to Downing Street followed by the now immortal words that “a meeting of Cobra had been called”. Don’t get me wrong I know why it is necessary but it is beginning to sound like an automatic comfort blanket on a weekly basis. He needs the expertise that Cobra brings to allow him to make decisions, but at the end of the day it undermines his strength and character and reminds me of his “Macivity” characteristic or the “was not me guv” excuse. By the way, is Brown jinxed?
77.”I thought that we allowed the transport of animals to continue for too?” long!.
76 - the outbreak in 1981 was around the Isle of Wight.
Chris D at 77 - DEFRA wasn’t formed until after the 2001 GE. The old MAFF was still running the show at the time of the spring 2001 outbreak. You’re certainly right that MAFF, under the utterly shambolic “leadership” of Nick Brown, completely failed to understand how serious things were.
No doubt reflections upon these failings played no small part in Blair’s decision to get rid of MAFF and create DEFRA.
80.Thanks Steven, I have got so used to calling it DEFRA now. You maybe right about Blair’s reasons for putting it in place of MAFF, I would not say that it has covered its self in glory any more as DEFRA or with the politicians that followed on from Nick Brown.
Excellent article from Matthew Parris in the Times.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/columnists/matthew_parris/article2195714.ece
Re 57
(Re 55, The old Codger “Re 50: Yes I remember hearing that rubbish.”
Regrettably the beauty of your average conspiracy theory is that it is so hard to disprove, yet there is always things can point to that back the theory up.
It is a bit like astrology.)
That is very true regarding cospiracy theories but as regards astrology, a prediction I have from a good while back was that Tony Blair would be in power for ten years……
Re 78, Andy G, “Benedict - you are right. Only a handful of farms (in Essex?) I think. There was a big outbreak in 1967 in the Gloucester/Worcester/Shropshire/Cheshire area - but not as big or widespread as 2001. ‘Only’ 400,000 animals were destroyed.”
Actually in 1981, I remember a farm just down the road from me under restrictions. That was 9and still is) in Sussex.
What a disastrous performance by the English rugby team. They should be doing far better at this point in the world cup cycle. Wales showed far greater skill and penetration in their backs, despite fielding a weakened team and are on course for victory when it matters.
Great analysis, Roger. We all knew that England would resort to the old neanderthal, brutal tactics they used in the ’80s and 90’s when the going got tough. It might appeal to their core supporters but it will lose them the world cup.
Most recent local results:
1 Gloucester Rugby 22 15 2 5 3 4 71
2 Leicester Tigers 22 14 1 7 9 5 71
3 Bristol Rugby 22 14 1 7 3 3 64
4 Saracens 22 12 2 8 7 4 63