Can Romney’s wealth get him the nomination?
August 14th, 2007
Was Mitt’s Iowa victory worth $800 a vote?
The major event in the campaign for the GOP nomination for next year’s White House was the so-called Ames Straw Poll that took place at the weekend. This is a gathering of Iowa Republicans where voting takes place on which candidate attendees would like to see win the nomination at the Iowa caucus in January - the first of the fifty states to complete its process to decide which to back.
Mitt Romney - currently third favourite at 7/2 had poured millions and put a massive amount of effort into coming top in this initial test. In fact one estimate put the cost of each of the 4516 votes (33%) that he picked up at more than $800.
These sums don’t worry Romney for according to latest reports he is by far the wealthiest of any of the contenders and in 2006 alone is said to have had an income of $15m.
The problem with the Ames victory is that none of the other front runners - Rudi Giuliani, John McCain or former senator and movie star Fred Thompson - decided to run.
Romney’s performance was seen by many as a disappointment - and the second placed Ames candidate, former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee, was regarded as having made the biggest impact after getting 18% of the vote when he had only had a minuscule fraction of Romney’s budget available.
The longer this goes on the more it’s looking like a Giuliani-Clinton contest.
Mike Smithson
MessageSpace Advertising
Romney still has one big problem. The Republicans will never nominate a Morman.
1 - they’re not averse to nominating a moron though… dub-ya!
1 How about a Morwoman, Simon?
Seriously, I think the problem is his poor political record rather than which church he attends.
I’ve come to the conclusion it’s Guiliani-Clinton Mike.
I asked here last week if people felt 4/5 Clinton for the Dem nomination might be value? Well it’s gone now. I’ve just backed her at 8/11 with Corals. Which sits nicely with my Obama for President bet and Guiliani for GOP nomination.
I’ve beeb convinced for a while Clinton would win her side’s nomination, but the Republican one is far more open. For all Giulani’s polling advantage, he has a lot of obvious weaknesses.
As for the thought that they couldn’t possibly nominate someone as transparently awful as Romney: I thought the same thing when Bush was on the campaign trail. A chuckle, but comforted by the thought that such an ignoramus couldn’t possibly win - this was around the time of that interview where he failed to name a single foreign leader, and seemed petutantly/arrogantly proud of his lack of interest.
4. Seeing that he’s pitching for the right-wing slice of the Republican party, his religion matters a lot. Most of these people believe the King James Bible is the literal word of God, and for them, Joseph Smith and his followers are heretical. It will take some doing to win voters like that over to a Mormon.
Always good fun to ask a Mormon, where the book of Mormon is, when they say lost, say, ‘Pardon you get given a book of gold, by an Angel and you lose it! I’ve heard of careless but that’s bloody ridiculous’
AGR released its recent national poll, below are the results:
Giuliani dropped from 30% to 27%
Romney increased from 10% to 16%
F Thompson dropped from 17% to 16%
McCain dropped from 14% to 13%
And dont forget Mitt has Iowa and NH in the bag.
Jonathan (from previous thread), “self congratulatory and ever-longer” my posts on Europe may be, but I never claimed that referenda are always more “democratic” than parliamentary government - whatever that means.
My principle assertion is simply that it is now a fact, accepted by most people, that basic changes to the way a country is governed should be approved in a plebiscite. All main parties now affirm this. So do I.
It seems unquestionable to me that this Constitution (or Reform) Treaty is a basic change to the way we are governed: giving the EU a legal personality, making it self-amending (no more Treaties), giving it “a UN seat”, establishing a foreign minister and diplmatic corps. Etc etc etc etc.
However, even if you insist that this Treaty is no more revolutionary than, say, Maastricht, the fact is the CUMULATIVE changes to British governance, via the EU, since the last referendum in 1975, are now so overwhelming the case for asking the people is simply inarguable.
Indeed Tony Blair himself admitted this a year or two back, I will give you the quote if you like.
On top of all this, the Labour government promised us a vote, and was elected on that pledge. To prevent us having a say would be a monumental betrayal of democracy.
Enough said?
Mind you, talking of self congratulastion, can I just say that I am posting this from Emperor Rudolf the Second’s old house in Prague. And astronomer Tycho Brahe had a vision right by my bathroom.
Re 10 Did he observe Uranus?
McConnell to step down as Scottish Labour Party leader tomorrow. Comments please Marcia and others.
Been an open secret at Holyrood for a while - they just had to make preparations for what happens next.
Andrew I agree but now it’s happening tomorrow. What next a coronation or a Brownite coronation?
“Tycho Brahe had a vision right by my bathroom.”
Oh great, another religious nut
Sorry I mean contest or coronation?
Enough said? Yes.
17. Yes. Point taken, shall stop ranting about Europe - FOR NOW!!!
I intended to post no more no this today but Jonathan’s odd assertion needed rebuttal.
Gotta go now anyway, think the ghost of Johannes Kepler is in my jacuzzi.
6. I’ve long been convinced that Americans vote for both parties in turn, but always for the wrong reasons. Most Americans I knew who voted for Bush did so on the basis, if you can believe it, that he would stop sticking America’s nose into other countries!
Romney got a pretty good US press for his showing in Iowa - it was only hardened observers like us who said pooh, less than expected. The bounce in the poll that Nate reports presumably reflects that.
Clinton looks pretty secure but I think it’s too early to make odds-on bets - there are months of possible ‘events’ before a serious vote is cast. The same with nobs on goes for Guiliani.
20. Indeed, and its not just events. US politics is a vicious game and the knives haven’t come out yet. When they do they can make a huge difference.
14.Gordon Brown will want a coronation of his favoured candidate rather than any unhelpful debate during a leadership contest. Personally I think that the Scottish Labour party needs the debate and the exposure up here to counter the Salmond media juggernaut. They need to put some clear water between the negative campaign they ran at Holyrood, starting with a robust debate on a much more positive agenda.
Safe, boring and always on message will help Gordon Brown at Westminster short term, but could really damage Labour’s longer term revival against the SNP at Holyrood. That’s my tuppeny worth anyway.
The polls for the GOP contest are all over the place-and for a simple reason. No one has begun to close the deal. The Ames Iowa straw poll was notable for a tiny turnout; many fewer people voted for Romney than for Bush in the equivalent contest. Michael Barone, the Conservative commentator has written a very good article on the Ames contest for those interested.
Bottom line is that it still looks like a three horse race. Everyone’s waiting for Fred Thompson’s entrance ino the race early next month and the Fox News debate that will follow. Is there sufficient beef behind that Presidential physical stature and timbre? We’ll know a lot more by the middle of next month but this race has a long way to go with plenty of twists and turns yet. The fat lady isn’t even visible on the horizon.
14 I tend to agree but who are the runners and riders? Isn’t the favourite a Brownite woman? What’s the likely time-table for a contest and what’s the electorate. An electoral college, I suppose?
24.Bluemoon, I have not seen any details for a timetable for a contest maybe Andrea might know? In fact considering how well trailed McConnell’s resignation has been that is a bit odd?
Wendy Alexander sister of Douglas is believed to be the favoured choice of Gordon Brown, IMHO she would be a disaster against Salmond at Holyrood though.
25 Well who else is there? Not exactly over-flowing with talent on the Labour benches at Holyrood.
25 “I tend to agree but who are the runners and riders? Isn’t the favourite a Brownite woman? ”
Wendy Alexander, sister of Douglas.
Is the Deputy Leader (Cathy Jamieson) staying on or resigning as well?
26. Andy Kerr has been mentioned
12 - I just don’t think they have anyone with much charisma - based on what I have read - Wendy Alexander is a shoo in but frankly she turns a lot of voters off including some of my Labour friends.
I see this article in the Scotsman suggesting a coronation of Alexander is likely. If Labour agree a leisurely time-table it may point away from an October GE, I suppose.
http://news.scotsman.com/topics.cfm?tid=782&id=1267192007
28.Andrea it will be interesting to see what deals have been done?
http://news.scotsman.com/politics.cfm?id=1212082007
29.Marcia, I agree!
Could be that the hint of an early GE might persuade some possible contenders to fall in line just now?
It’s far too early to say if Romney is a runner, I doubt we will know until New Hampshire.
As for the last thread. Free spending Gordon eh? He used to be the Iron chancellor, now he is the any old iron, any old iron, any, any, any old iron Prime Minister.
A fine example of Ms Alexander’s talents here:
http://uk.youtube.com/watch?v=rGdybkDZNH8
Short answer, no.
Some of my local Labourista friends were pushing for a contest a little while back, given that the lack of one seemed to be harming Brown in London - I believe this attitude was quite widespread at the time. However, his apparent polling success since then has probably kicked the balance back in favour of a coronation.
34 - oh dear!
Does anybody know which bookies are offering odds on the Russian presidential election?
I will be posting on this in the autumn as I will be getting a pretty good feed of information.
29 - the Scottish Parliament has been generally a charisma free zone - except for Dewar (RIP), perhaps Jim Wallace on a good day (now left), and of course the excellent Mr Salmond.
34 - ye gods. In a parliament of pygmy politicians, it really is (unfortunately) very clear why Alex Salmond is king.
29.”Wendy Alexander is a shoo in but frankly she turns a lot of voters off including some of my Labour friends”
Chris once mistaken her for Nicola Sturgeon
What do you require to stand for Scottish leadership? How many nominations from MSPs?
Is this the fourth or fifth Labour party leader in Scotland in eight years?
Ye Gods, it’s like Tory leaders at Westminster…
A fascinating piece about Salmond’s highly successful campaign for independence. I hadn’t appreciated that GB has bought in to a complete U turn in the last month on new powers for the Parliament. Des Browne took a totally different line in July.
Since he became First Minister Salmond’s left the other Parties, and particularly the Labour Party , gasping for air.
http://scotlandonsunday.scotsman.com/topics.cfm?tid=51&id=1280502007
43.”Since he became First Minister Salmond’s left the other Parties, and particularly the Labour Party”
The other 2 too…are Scottish LD and Tories still among us or have they disappeared from earth?
Andrea I said the ‘other Parties’. That includes the Tories and LDs!
44 - no, Nicol Stephen has been very busy… thinking up reasons for his actions after the election and putting them down in that widely read newspaper “Liberal Democrat News”… this has not left much time for anything else evidently!
45. well, I was replying to your “particularly”.
LD and Con have suffered from the Lab vs SNP battle in the press in the run up of the election too IMO. At least the Tories managed to get some coverage towards the end with praises for Annabel
46
I know he’s still among us as I read last week he has been re-elected unopposed
RE: IOWA GOP STRAW POLL
2007 Results:
Romney 4,516 (31.58%)
Huckaby 2,587 (18.09%)
Brownback 2,192 (15.33%)
Tancredo 1,961 (13.71%)
Paul 1,305 (9.12%)
T Thompson 1,039 (7.26%)
F Thompson 203 (1.42%)
Guiliani 183 (1.28%)
Hunter 174 (1.22%)
McCain 101 (0.71%)
Cox 41 (0.29%)
Total Vote 14,302 (100%)
1999 Results
George W. Bush 7,418 (31.32%)
Steve Forbes 4,921 (20.78%)
Elizabeth Dole 3,410 (14.40%)
Gary Bauer 2,114 (8.93%)
Pat Buchanan 1,719 (7.26%)
Lamar Alexander 1,428 (6.03%)
Alan Keyes 1,101 (4.65%)
Dan Quayle 916 (3.87%)
Orin Hatch 558 (2.36%)
John McCain 83 (0.35%)
John Kasich 9 (0.04%)
Bob Smith 8 (0.03%)
Total Votes 23,685 (100.%)
NOTE: 2007 was first year that voter had to show Iowa ID in additon to paying for admission (or having a campaign pay for them).
Clinton vs Giuliani? Oh my god I feel sick. Time to vote Libertarian…
LOL @46!
Andrea I think Salmond has dominated the agenda. As by far the most important opposition Party I was concentrating on the effect on Labour. I don’t think they’ve got used to being out of power for the first time since well forever!
The LDs can claim that their policy of more powers for the Parliament is now on the agenda but they seem to have been pretty invisible since the election.
Goldie has been having problems of her own with Lord Forsyth calling for a referendum on independence to ’spike the SNP’s guns’. As you know she completely opposes that.
Bottom line Salmond completely dominates the Scottish scene and the uneasy huddling together of the pro Unionist Parties today only confirmed that IMHO.
51. “I don’t think they’ve got used to being out of power for the first time since well forever!”
I agree with this. They have not adapted to opposition yet. And I thought that they would have not been able to do so as long as McConnell remained as leader. He was the past, they need a new start. They will probably take some time to get into full motion….then it depends on how much time they will take. A couple of more months, ok…more than that, well, it would start to get problematic for them.
33. “It’s far too early to say if Romney is a runner” - I’m afraid I disagree. Romney is a runner, mainly for negative reasons: there’s no-one else storming the field and nor is there likely to be. He’s got enough money to see him comfortably into the start of the voting phase and should do well enough in the first couple to keep him in for at least a few weeks beyond that.
It’s very unusual for there to be such an open field for the GOP nomination. I can only think of two other contests since WWII - 1964 and 1996 - where there wasn’t a very clear favourite. Even so, the usual rules for primaries should apply: the things that count above all are money and momentum - and the two are linked.
McCain has lost the momentum and will have a huge task regaining it. I remain unconvinced by Thompson as well - he’s been floating around for so long that when (if?) he finally enters the race formally, it will be more to a chorus of ‘at last’ than anything else. Besides, like most of the other candidates, he ticks a few boxes but has other big drawbacks: his age and inexperience being two (the reason why he is delaying, perhaps? It lessens scrutiny, though that can’t last forever).
It should be down to Giuliani or Romney, but as neither of them are exactly star quality, and either could blow it with a gaffe or a scandal from either’s past (not that I know of any as such, but there looks to be much more scope for it to happen to them than to Hillary, for example), there’s still a chance for the rest. I must admit, I’m a little pleased at Huckabee’s result - I backed him at 33/1 a while ago and had just about written it off, but perhaps there’s still life in his campaign yet. It should be more interesting than the race for the Democratic nomination anyway.
More good news for Salmond. New poll published in Scotland on Sunday shows 80% support for independence. Bad news is it’s an online poll. Marcia’s household’s obviously been busy!
RE: IOWA REPUBLICAN STRAW POLL
–Mitt Romney’s showing validates his status in the top tier, which is something that Rudy Guiliani, Fred Thompson and John McCain have NOT done yet; not saying they aren’t top-tier (except for McCain) but just that they haven’t sealed that status. And contrary to what opponents and pundits are saying, he bought 1st place far and square. For the point of the straw poll is to test each candidate’s Iowa organization, which is directly tied to the amount of money invested, both for an extended and sizeable physical presence in the state AND for tickets, transportation and other straw poll expenses.
–BUT Romney’s Mormonism is a HUGE problem for him, most especially with religious right GOP voters. The benefit of his Mormon faith is massive campaign contributions, but outside Utah and neighboring states the Mormon voting bloc in 2008 is miniscule compared to the Roman Catholic vote in 1960. And unlike, Romney has done nothing to address his Mormon problem head-on. Until he does, tough to take him take him seriously as a potential nominee, unless Guiliani and/or Thompson were to fade so badly that it opened up more daylight for all of the survivors.
–Question: Guiliani, Fred Thompson & John McCain did NOT buy votes (standard at IA GOP straw poll) for themselves BUT did they buy any for anyone else? For example, Huckabee, Brownback, Tancredo, Paul or even little Tommy Thompson? Because Rudy, Fred & John all had a strong interest in keeping Romney’s PERCENTAGE as low as possible.
—PLUS according to New York Times, Guiliani campaign made local radio ad buy right before the straw poll urging supporters to come to Ames (at their own expense; actively participating campaigns provided transportation AND bought many tickets); this was picked up by other campaigns, who thought it meant Guiliani was going to launch a last-minute vote drive. Which clearly did NOT happen. So what’s the deal?
–Huckabee’s 2nd place gives him entry into the top tier, though it doesn’t guarantee it. The Huck’s successes is clearly due in part to his superior debate & stump performance, also his support from religious right, who bussed a lot of their people Ames from across the state. The strong 2nd should give him a definite boost in Iowa and also OUTSIDE the state. BOTH are critical factors for candidates AND punters. For the ultimate result of the Iowa GOP Caucuses in Jan. 2008 will have a BIG impact on the entire race, even if the ultimate GOP nominee doesn’t win 1st or even 2nd place.
–Brownback’s 3rd place has to hurt, though chief Iowa political reporter David Jepsen thinks it’s not decisive. BUT it may be seen as a signal by the smarter religious right leaders that Huckabee’s a better bet for them in the long run. Puts even more pressure on him to show he’s not just eating Huckabee’s dust.
–Ron Paul (libertarian gadfly) and Tom Tancredo (anti-immigrant/bomb Mecca) both have spirited followings that helped boost their straw poll numbers. BUT the cynic in me says that Guiliani, Fred T & McCain may have all contributed something more than moral support to these two, arguably much better places to park their votes than either Huckabee or Brownback.
–Tommy Thompson has been the class clown of the GOP field. Hailed when Governor of Wisconsin as the father of welfare reform, TT was the first one of W’s cabinet of horrors to crash and burn. But not before he got his toadies cush jobs in the Iraq Provisional Authority, where (like Rudy’s pal Keric) they made a terrible situation even worse with their criminally incompetent (but very well paid) blundering. Seeing this pompous twit go splat this weekend was truly delicious!
–Perhaps the most important thing to emerge from the Iowa GOP straw poll was pointed out by Michael Barone (of Almanac of American Politics fame) who noted in his commentary that attendance was way down, even figuring in the fact that three major candidates didn’t participate (or did they?) He ascribes this to the terrible morale pervading Republican ranks from top to bottom. MB also noted that, except for Ron Paul, all of the GOP candidates were trying to look as much as possible like George W. Bush circa 2000. But as Barone notes sadly (being a neocon himself) the bloom is well-off that particular rose . . .
54. Blue Moon, an internet pollster like yougov?
I’m not sure this poll was weighted for anything Andrea! It was a self selecting set of internauts.
57. Ah, Blue Moon, is it a woodo poll where everyone can vote?
Indeed. If you want to vote for Scottish independence you can do so now!
I kinda think GOP strategically are looking at 2012, and hoping for anyone but Clinton to win for the democrats in 2008- the republicans are out for the count until at least the congressionals in 2010.
Hillary is formidable- once she gets the 2008 nomination, 8 years are a near certainty. At least with Barack, Edwards or Gore, GOP could think there is some hope in 2012. With Hillary the Democrats are set fair for at least a decade
Can someone tell me what the nomination procedure is for the party leaderships in Scotland and Wales for all 4 parties - it will be useful to know for school if this election is happening next term!
Thanks
Rupert Murdoch disapproves of Labour.
http://www.thesun.co.uk/article/0,,2007370486,00.html
Has the Worm turned? You will know when the Front Page reflects the leader.
Covering up incompetence is easy with Murdoch and BBC propaganda. But if one should fall out of line, the cracks will show.
61. I’ve found this essay about past Scottish leadership contests that can be interesting
http://www.psa.ac.uk/journals/pdf/5/2002/birrell.pdf
Iain Lindley. Here’s how Annabel Goldie became leader.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/scotland/4398056.stm
20. Nick Palmer. “Clinton looks pretty secure but I think it’s too early to make odds on bets.” Pretty secure = 1/2 or less in my book. I will take any even money on offer from PBers who agree with you that she shouldn’t be odds on.
I won’t prevail on you for a bet Nick because the words “cats” and “charity” tend to creep in to the negotiations and wipe away all potential profit.
62. Interesting pair of leaders. Having a go at the government is one thing; pairing it with a neutral comment on the Redwood proposals (while having a kick at the Beeb), is presumably sending a shot across Brown’s bows and dangling somthing that might look a bit like a carrot to Cameron. Is Murdoch genuinely opening the bidding or just wanting The Sun to look like it’s going to come to its own decision?
54 moi?
JOHN MCCAIN is catering his own political death march. He put off returning to “straight talk” and fiscal discipline (in his own campaign) FAR too long. As far as I can tell the only support he’s got left with actual Republicans is with GOP officeholders & the like who endorsed him when it looked like McCain might be The Man; now they’re just waiting to find out who is the anointed one. When that day dawns, they’ll drop McC faster than W handed Scooter his pardon.
RUDY GUILIANI is the man of mystery in the race. Mystery is, why isn’t he doing better, even considering his well-known ideological baggage. Which I think is overstated; he’s made clear he’d appoint more rightwingers to the courts (so who cares about his “personal” views on abortion?) and the number of GOPers who care about “the gay agenda” even among Christian conservatives is evaporating.
Main reason Guiliani is underperforming, is because he’s a rotten campaigner and a scary guy (one hand washes the other). Has a personal style that makes Dick Cheney appear conciliatory. The reports of his progress through small town Iowa & New Hampshire are NOT encouraging - and these are states where likely caucus goers/primary voters want to touch the hem of EVERY candidate before they make up their minds. And its hard to make small talk, about your children for example . . . when your own kids hate your guts.
FRED THOMPSON has indeed been playing “Hamlet of the Tennessee”(or Cumberland if you prefer) way too long. But disagree that his problem is lack of experience. His extensive beltway lobbying experience (including for pro-abortion Planned Parenthood) is not a plus. And while he accomplished diddly-squat as US Senator from Tennessee, fact is that W’s accomplishments as Texas Gov weren’t especially earth shattering either.
Which is important, because a big part of Fred Thompson’s appeal is the fact that, of all the GOP hopefuls, he’s the one who appears to MOST resemble pre-Iraq George W. Bush. FT’s biggest strength is his acting ability: currently he’s acting as a chief prosecutor on TV, as acted as a President on TV and as a Senator in the Senate. In fact, one reason that So GOPer are hoping that he can act like he ought to be President for real, and pug one over on voters the way W fooled them in 2000.
Think the biggest problem with Fred Thompson may prove to be his LACK of will, desire, energy, whatever to actually RUN for president. All the other candidates are working their hearts out. But not Fred. Which makes me think he doesn’t have the fire in the belly. And 2008 is NOT a year that someone is going to just give you the Republican OR the Democratic nomination just for showing up.
NOTE that all the GOP hopefuls (except Ron Paul) are trying to resemble Bush 2000 as closely as possible. Which may NOT prove a winning strategy AFTER the national convention.
For a good guide to the last Labour leadership contest in 2000 with various news reports and all various party leadership contests in Scotland
http://www.alba.org.uk/index.html
and from the left index go the Leadership contests
David Herdson
The trouble is that Trevor Kavanagh is the man who advises Murdoch on British politics. His forecast is that ‘Brown will win big’. Until that view changes I can’t see The Sun running a full out anti GB effort as they did against Kinnock all those years ago. Sun leaders don’t really matter because Sun readers aren’t interested in them.
Andy Coulson has to get stuck in to Trevor to change his mind. One of a number of important things in his in tray.
68-sea shanty- you and Jan from Norway provide the best insights on GOP politics on pbCOM
surely their damage limitation candidate is Guliani- at least then the democrats may feel that they have to defend NY and NJ more vigerously, giving GOP some plan for Ohio and Florida.
Con rule ok
Super Watford 3 Gillingham 0
Con hold
70. I agree, which is why it looks to me more like a positioning game (’don’t take our support for granted’), rather than a genuine backing away. Still, even its intention at the moment is merely to appear to keep its options open, that puts the genuine possibility of change on the table as well whether that’s a route that’s being considered at the moment or not.
tyson
You’re assuming that GOP voters will vote in this rational way. It’s perfectly possible that they’ll vote for the candidate with whom they feel most comfortable. If Thompson puts on a decent show next month it could be him. Otherwise it could be the ghastly smoothy ( IMO) Romney. On the other hand they might give Giuliani a run after all as you say. This race is still very open. No one has come close to sealing the deal with th GOP base.
60 Tyson. “Hillary is formidable- once she gets the 2008 nomination, 8 years are a near certainty.”
I think that you are spot-on there. The pleasure at having a woman win the White House (and more importantly ON MERIT rather than “just because she’s a woman”) is tinged with just a touch of sadness that I don’t see her as the healer that I think America needs after a divisive Bush administration. In many ways, in fact, I think that she polarizes opinion more than Bush!
76 - hillary is favourite.
UK: hague back soon
Con win
AS FOR US DEMOCRATIC RACE FOR PRESIDENT:
Do NOT bet the farm on Hilary Clinton just yet. True, she has displayed incredible grace and stamina under tremendous pressure. On Iraq, her steady backpeddling from her previous pseudo-hawk position (a strategy I believe was conceived at least a year ago by her skilled & seasoned campaign team) has earned her gruding respect from the bloggers and growing support from liberal activist, while still preserving her tough-on-national-security credentials.
Worst thing going for Hilary is the praise of GOP candidates and pundits for her position viz-a-viz Barack Obama. Because when these guy start saying nice things about Hilary, us Democrats start to get a funny feeling in the pits of our stomachs . . .
Not to mention the fact that it really isn’t a secret that about 40% of the American people DESPISE Hilary with a burning passion. Even the GOP Senators, pundits and other beltway bandits who genuinely think that she’s not so bad after all have ZERO penetration with core GOP & fellow-traveller Clinton-haters.
WHICH IS WHY it will take more than a couple bad weeks to sink BARACK OBAMA as a serious contender for the Democratic nomination. For his gaffes were NOT that hideous, though I’m not saying they weren’t serious. The thing that makes them LOOK hideous, is how well Obama’s beed doing and how amazingly gaffe-free his campaign has been.
So what Obama needs to do is, recognize his contributions to the silly season, pull up his socks, maybe get some new advisors (and get rid of some old ones) and get back to the business of raising money by the bushel, achieving goals and expectations, and looking presidential.
JOHN EDWARDS retains his role as the anti-whomever-is-number-one candidate. That is, the natural alternative against Hilary if Obama fades, or against Obama if Clinton stumbles. And he’s walking this line pretty well, building a good base within organized labor AND developing a superior Iowa organization & presence among other positives. Personally think his biggest negative is the fact that he looks about 15 years younger than he actually is, which is a bit disconcerting, esp. for those of us who may look OLDER than we really are!
78 - know the feeling about looking old.
Overall still think hillary is favourite.
Spurs/QPR crushed - their season is over.
Con gain everything next election
Palace out.
Muppets.
Con gain Croydon/Bristol
Ipswich out.
Muppets
Ave it 07
Are you Martin Day or are you just mimicking his endless silly use of smileys?
82:
40.
Andrea, they both seem to have had make over’s in the last couple of years, but alas the same hectoring/lecturing school teacher tone persists with both.
48.No wonder Alex Salmond cannot stop smiling.
59.Bluemoon every SNP blogger will have voted in it including Marcia.
66.David, I have noticed recently that the Times seems to be putting Brown’s government under a bit more scrutiny?
84 - dont overdo it with the smileys
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article2260864.ece
When/what is the next opinion poll due out please chaps ?
Nick P, thanks for the referendum clarification two threads back. You would want more and I would want none, but your views now seem clear.
86 - looks like the election is happening.
Con gain quite a few seats
Tim Montgomery of ConHome and Nadine Dorries MP are not dating, the Mail informs us….
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/pages/live/articles/columnists/columnists.html?in_article_id=475383&in_page_id=1772&in_author_id=230
37 SBS
Bet 365 and Paddy Power have both had markets, though they pull them from time to time.
My Kremlin sources say it’s Ivanov. Naturally I will be most interested to learn whether your own spy ring confirm this.
71. Politics in the US is much more polarised around conservatives vs liberals than Republicans vs Democrats, and thus many right-wing conservatives regard Giuliani as a liberal. In fact, slurs often used in US politics are RINO and DINO (”Republican In Name Only” and the Democrat ccounterpart). A lot of Republicans would regard a Guiliani candidacy as letting the other side in, but under their banner, which is even worse than a Democrat win.
92 But tjm, won’t a lot of GOP supporter have written off the next election and be thinking they may as well put up the man least likely to lose badly - which would almost certainly be Guiliani?
93 Sorry - that should be *supporters*.
I know the GOP is in a bad way, but there has to be at least two of them.
92 Hmmm
95 Hmmm
Is that Hmmm as in Hmmm, or Hmm, or did you just mean Hmmmmmm?
The BBC is reporting that 175 Iraqis have just died in a series of bomb attacks. These Iraqis are members of the Yezidi community - reputedly “devil-worshippers”.
Bizarrely enough I have just spent the last two days with the Yezidi diaspora in northern Germsny. They are indeed “devil-worshippers” - they revere a fallen angel called Melek Taus - the “peacock angel. This Melek Taus is the same as Moloch, the baby-eating demon, worshipped by ancient Israelis.
Sorry to go ever-so-slightly OT. Interesting though - and tragic.
79 Hmmm, so you don’t really ‘Ave it’, then?!
93. I always tend to think that in any party, rather than a spectrum there are three broad positions:
(1) The hardline fundamentalists who think that any accomodation for “the other side” is a watering down of values. e.g. Norman Tebbit
(2) The centrists who often listen to the arguments of the opposite party and believe strongly in balance of right and left and will insist on a middle way or something similar. There will complete antagonism between these guys and the first group. e.g David Cameron
(3) The mainstream, who, although partisan to their side and don’t listen to people in other parties, hear the arguments of both the hardliners and the centrists within their own, and will back either depending on the political climate quite pragmatically. e.g. David Davis
I think that in the Republican party, seven years of Bush (and the work of the Christian coalition previously) has pretty much eliminated group (2) from the party and incredibly strengthened (1). I expect the mainstreamers may well think as you suggest, but the hardliners would rather lose more heavily but have their arguments heard than allow what they consider liberal hegemony of the intellectual debate.
I think Giuliani really is on the very liberal end of the party now - even many mainstreamers feel uncomfortable supporting him, although as you say, he’s still got a lot for pragmatic reasons. Whether he wins the nomination though, will entirely depend on whether a mainstream candidate shows the strength to get through that the hardliners can support. It needs to be someone right-wing enough to win the hardline vote, while successful enough that they look like they stand a chance at the Presidency, so the mainstream pragmatists support them. If that happens, Giuliani will lose. If it doesn’t, the hardliners will stay home and Giuliani will get through.
Hello Peter,
All of the above…but particularly Hmmm as in Hmmm - think it
but don’t go there TB!
More interestingly, I’ve been reading your comments about an 07 election quite carefully over the past few weeks.
Have you seen heard anything in the past week to give you further pause for thought ?
I still think a serious punt at these levels is well worth a risk.
97. I’m pretty suspicious whenever a religion is claimed to be devil-worshipping. Are you sure they don’t just worship an angel who Muslims claimed is fallen and equate with Satan? That’s what happened to Wiccanism in the UK, when Christian painters decided to visualise Satan as the pagan god Lucifer.
99 I think that’s a good piece tjm.
I personally think whoever picks up the Republican nomination will be helped by a strengthening ABH(Hilary) factor that hasn’t really come to the fore yet.
Her stridency is an extremely negative and unattractive factor for many and a ‘liberal’ such as Gulliani could be ideally positioned to benefit from it.
The US Public, rather like the UK in ‘97 do seem increasingly tired of the Hawkish approach of GWB (and I write that as a friend of the Administration). Another reason why a slightly more ‘house trained’ Republican candidate with a record and reputation of being a proven winner could well pick up flaky Rep and Democrat waivering votes ?
100 Tory Boy - ‘Have you seen heard anything in the past week to give you further pause for thought ?’
Am always pleasantly surprised to find anybody reads my posts, carefully or otherwise, but the answer to your question is ‘Yes’. In particular I was struck by JackW’s assessment that the odds against a 2007 GE were, in his opinion, about 7/2. He may be a dilapidated old Jacobite but he knows a thing or three about Politics, odds and other dark arts, so when he says 7/2, I tend to sit up and listen.
If GB were to call an election tomorrow, I’d be down £2k. I’m not backing off - yet - but I do have all scanners on alert and am not too proud to reduce my exposure if they pick up more warning signals.
I reckon Gordon would want to see a few more opinion polls showing ten or more plus points before he took the plunge. It could happen, but for the moment, I’m saying it won’t.
Thank you. I agree and do declare that I shall go and double my investment tomorrow morning on the back of it!
I’m stuck behind a firewall here … (bloody do-gooders!)
Which Bookie was offering best value when you last looked please ?
104 Paddy Power - 6/1. That’s better than Betfair - about 11/2.
102. A mentality among many mainstream Republicans has set in that the Bush administration’s failure has been entirely down to incompetence rather than ideology. What they feel they need now is someone who shows competence, which is why some are hesitantly backing Giuliani, although they would prefer someone more “on message.” I think the hawkishness has only put off swing voters, not any of the three Republican groups. If anything, its the one thing that unites all sections of the party: the Christian Right who see it as a battle against evil, Big Oil who want the US to maintain a presence in the Middle East, and Fiscal Conservatives who are very patriotic. The libertarians are the only ones who aren’t signed up fully, but the row with Iran seems to have kept them quiet.
Among the hardliner Christians, if you can believe it, many feel that George Bush has not been strong enough domestically the issues they care about like banning gay marriage and abortion. They also fear the Republican leadership is in the grip of a corrupt corporate lobby. Why this is just occuring to them now I have no idea, but there you go. However, nobody in the party is listening to the Christian coalition now - the meddling with the Schiavo case really turned people off and many Republicans want to distance themselves from them.
101. No, it’s more complex than that. The Yezidi essentially admit that their God - Melek Taus - is indeed the devil of Biblical and Koranic lore.
Melek Taus, the “peacock angel”, is, as I say, cognate with Moloch, the Judaic demon of the Old Testament. According to the Yezidi, he was an overproud angel who was cast into Hell by God, but his 40,000 years’ worth of tears quenched the fires of Hades. And now he is a “reformed character”.
The origins of Yezidism are very very very obscure. They themselves think it predates all other religions - that they have the oldest faith on earth. It is certainly ancient, and possibly a kind of Zoroastrianism tinged with Gnosticism.
Interestingly, the peacock angel is just one of the bird icons they revere. And bird worship (or specifically buzzard worship) has a long lineage in Sumeria, the area where the Yezidi spring from. The winged desert demon Pazuzu was a Sumerian God. Pazuzu is the same demon that appears in the Exorcist.
Anyway, might all make a cracking Daily Mail piece. Or the Fortean Times.
Friends of Rik W will be pleased to know that he has been a busy man…
http://www.muckspreading.com/
So for those lamenting the lack of Tory policies, I think Rik may have the answer. Duck crossings all round!
Also had the first Tory leaflet in Abbey ward that I’ve seen since I’ve lived here. One of those cunning leafets masquerading as a questionnaire type thing. Even free postage. Now if only I had a pen…
107 So, in short, SeanT, they are nuts. Yes?
107. But I assume they argue the Christians and Muslims are unfairly defaming a good angel. Even though he may be equated as the same being in different religions, claiming they are devil worshippers means you implicitly accept the Christian/Muslim interpretation of Melek Taus is the correct one.
108 Amazing! So Rik W is the Wicker Man?
Always knew there was something odd about him.
110. No, they openly admit their demon-God Melek Taus is “good and bad”. This is what marks them out as so unusual - and so easy to persecute. They openly admit they worship the fallen angel that others see as the Devil. In their eyes, however, this Devil is on the way to rehabilitation. It’s a kind of Idealistic Gnostic Satanism.
109. Ok, they’re nuts. But great copy! For instance they fear and loathe lettuce, because the word “lettuce” in Kurdish sounds like “Satan”. Not sure where they stand on raddichio.
Is it my imagination, or has there been far more speculation about the likely presidential candidates much earlier this time than there usually is? I don’t remember much kerfuffle about previous campaigns until about February of election year.
109. I know some people who believe that a Canaanite desert God impregnated a mortal woman in the Roman Empire, and the son she gave birth to was also the same being as his father. Nuts, eh?
107. Are peacocks native to Mesopotamia?
113. I think a lot of people have taken a few elections to realise how huge an impact a US President can have, and now want to know who the next one could be as soon as possible.
Crumbs!! This thread is getting our Very Own Rik all mixed up with the demon-God Melek Taus. How does Rik stand on the “lettuce” question? Is this another issue that he can take over and claim credit for?
108 - Gareth you exaggerate - the St Johns area was delivered a lot during the local election campaign!!!
114 “I know some people who believe that a Canaanite desert God impregnated a mortal woman in the Roman Empire, and the son she gave birth to was also the same being as his father. Nuts, eh?”
Yup.
TJM, think you make some excellent points re: US Republicans and their curious thought patterns.
One thing I would add is, having been in power for eight years in the White House, and most of the last decade in Congress, the GOP is simply not hungry enough to behave pragmatically.
Plus the departure of Karl Rove and the collapse of the GOP White House political operation means that there is no longer any there there at the belly of the beast.
BUT think you are off-base on the Yezidi. Do NOT believe their main concern is with how they are perceived by the neighbors. Instead, what get their goat (metaphorically) is that Dick Cheney has given “devil worship” such a bad name.
116 Hi Rik.
What’s all this about you wanting to sacrifice ducks on a straw effigy of yourself? Is this official Conservative Policy, or just a draft proposal?
Sounds like a vote-winner to me.
And btw, where do you stand on the lettuce thing?
116 - How do you know who I am bearing in mind I live in a multi-occupancy house and that the internet is not in my name…
Well I did not see any other leaflets but of course one of my housemates might have binned it.
119 - u r confused
What lettuce thing?
120 -
103. PtP. I’m like you. Heavily exposed to an 07 election with no easy position out. But much as I respect Jack W, to put an 07 election at 7/2 is in my mind preposterous. I said I rate it at about 8/1 and stand by that. Mike’s point about the unpreparedness of the Labour party for an election this year reinforces my view. Nick Palmer reinforces this position. Further Foot and Mouth uncertainties are additionally supportive. And as a Labour party member I see no evidence that an 07 election is likely to happen. To risk it with troops and organisation unprepared would seem foolhardy to me.
I would reduce my position at 6/1+,if available, since the likelihood of 07 has increased and I wish I was less exposed. Paddy power only allowed me £22 on line! So I think we are stuck with our judgment but ought to be proved right.
112 Great copy perhaps, SeanT, but it’s starting to sound serious. I guess we can expect suicide bombers in the fresh salad section of Tescos before too long.
Reason why you are hearing so much about 2008 US presidential campaign in mid-2007, is because the calendar of party caucuses & primaries for both Democratic and Republican Parties has been significantly advanced over previous elections.
California and other large states have rescheduled their primaries from spring or late winter to February. Why? Because they were becoming tired of the presidential nominations being decided before their voters had a chance to cast a ballot.
But the small states of Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina are VERY jealous of their established status as “first in the nation” nomination contests. So they responded to the calendar shift by moving their own nomination action forward.
Last week South Carolina annouced the SC Republican Primary would be held mid-January. And earlier this year the New Hampshire legislature gave the NH Secretary of State legal authority to set the 2008 presidential primary (the first PRIMARY in the nation) on any day he wanted, provided it was before any other primary. Which leaves Iowa with the prospect that its precinct caucuses (the first official venue for delegate selection to the national conventions) might be held in December 2007!
Actually, the one thing that is sacred in Iowa is . . . no politicking during the Christmas/New Year holidays! So most likely outcome is that Iowa caucuses will take place sometime in the first or maybe second week of January.
In previous years candidates had to plan for Iowa in late January, New Hampshire in early February, then South Carolina and a few other states, with the first big states and multi-state “super-primaries” usually in late February or March, with significant action possibly into April.
BUT for 2008 all of the campaigns have had to plan on an accelerated schedule, with the majority of the delegates elected (or close enough) by mid-Febuary.
121 As I understand it, RikW, you and your lettuce-hating religious zealots, whose origins go back to pre-historic Reading, have constructed a giant Wicker Man on which you are going to roast a local duck and serve it without garnish as protest against eleven years of Labour misrule.
Do you deny it?
121 - Hmm. Maybe you really are Darth Insidious so I’d better watch out! Anyway, I’m definitely not sending the questionnaire back now if you already know all the answers…
One question for you: What is Rob Wilson going to do to sort out the problem of Jens Lehmann’s dodgy goalkeeping?
Incidentally, the wikipedia polling page on the Presidential elections is excellent:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_United_States_presidential_election,_2008#Two-way_contest
Sorry Mike, I’ll work out how to do the small url thing soon!
126 - have a word with your chum Warren who does the muckspreading site, I am sure he can sort it out for you!
122 Sure, StJohn. The PB consensus is pretty solid but of course some are more hawkish than others. JackW stands at one extreme with his suggestion of 7/2. You are probably at the other extreme with 8/1. I’m a 6/1 man. Mike is about the same.
The differences are not actually not that great. We all think a 2007 GE is not likely, but vary in our estimations of how unlikely.
I’ve learned to respect Jack’s opinion, and Mike’s, and, strangely, your own. Most of all, I’ve learned to respect my own, especially when it’s my money that goes down the crapper if I’m wrong.
As I said, I’m not backing off yet, but I’m watching, carefully, every little indicator.
Anyway, I can see RikW has no answer to the devil-worshipping allegations, so I think I’ll pop off to uncle ned and wait till the morning for further news of the evil lettuce-hating zealots.
Nite all.
SC republican primary is on January 19. According to state law, New Hampshire must have primary at least seven days before any other primary. Iowa, similarly must hold its caucus at least eight days before any other caucus or primary, There is really little space for manouvering, if it should all take place in January.
128 - Never met the guy. He must be very up on local politics as I wouldn’t have a clue who half the people are. It’s a good site though.
I would take the increased attention as a complement as it shows your party are on the up after many years of Labour domination in RG.
Anyway goodight. Surely even politicians must sleep (unless you’re aiming to be a male version of Thatcher)?
70. You say that Trevor Kavanagh is responsible for telling the great Aussie Eye about British Politics? I thought that only Managing Editors were allowed in the great ones presence?
Plus I do recall the entry in Ali’s Diary regarding Trev not being too impressed with the decision to support NuLab in 97, but the decision coming from Rupert meant he had to go along with it. Hardly showing he’s just backing winners - that’s Ruperts job!
108, 116, 121, 128, 132 et al, I do wish Ipswich and Suffolk politics were as full of good humoured satire rather than a vacant disagreement over process which appears to take place (now the Labour party in Suffolk agree with most of what we are doing in practice, there aren’t any disagreements on principle) Oh for some real amusing satire!
Well my final comment, relevant to this thread and posted into the empty ether, is that Clinton’s price for the Democrat nomination is dropping like a stone.
If you look at the Betfair graph the betting indicates to me that she may have reached a tipping point.
re 129. ….and of course Peter we have that wager at 7/1 which was agreed a long time ago. Give me £30 and I’ll close it down. I could not be fairer than that
Mike, I have had my last couple of emails caught in spam possible because one of links is a campaign?
136.Sorry, that should have been *posts* not emails.
124. If I remember correctly, New Hampshire has a law which says that it has to have its primary before any other state. This would of course be meaningless and unenforceable if ever any other state passed a similar law for itself.
131 & 138 are correct as to US presidential nomination timetable, with the wrinkle that NH Secretary of State can pick any day of the week as long as it’s on or before Saturday, January 12 (one week before SC GOP primary).
So that should give Iowa enough time to schedule its precinct caucuses sometime between Jan 2-11.
NOTE that Iowa & New Hampshire politicos of ALL persuasions will fight to the last ditch protecting each state’s “first in the nation status” because it is a major quadrennial cottage industry for both IA & NH. Also note that the NH SoS is and will remain in close consultation with Hawkeye powerbrokers to maintain a united front.
Should be noted that Democratic party rules specifically punish states that ignore DNC rules with respect to caucus & primary scheduling, by reducing the size of the guilty state’s national convention delegation. Which is a sanction without enough bite to deter any state party from doing what makes sense locally.
Congress has threatened from time to time to take these matters into its own hands (which it has the right to do via federal legislation) but while the rhetoric has been strong the will has been too weak - and interests between states, parties, candidates, etc too confused - to achieve any action.
Last week there was a lot of speculation that Iowa caucuses might be forced into December 2007. BUT Iowa officials made it very clear that they were working overtime to prevent that from happening. Again, because Iowans of all political persuasions are determined to keep the Holidays a caucus-free zone. Smart Iowa campaign operations (Romney?) know this; dumb ones (Guiliani?)don’t and will pay the price for pissing people off from Council Bluffs to Keokuk.
135 No you couldn’t, Mike, but I’ll stick with what I got, thanks.
I may be nervous, but I’m not panicking - yet.
128 - I know it’s an up and coming area but Rik, not everyone who lives in Abbey is called Gareth. I don’t think I know anyone living in a multi-occupancy house in Abbey.
And I’ll be addressing the problem of Mad Jens, as we affectionately call him, in the next issue of ‘Up the Arse!’ which will be out for the Arsenal v Portsmouth game.
On the other hand I am interested to hear more about the lettuce worshiping…
141 - I should hope not as it would make life very confusing! Most people round here seem to be called Dave which is bad enough…