Can Gord satisfy the Scots and the English at the same time?
August 15th, 2007
How would more devolution affect Labour south of the border?
The announcement by Scotland First Minister, the SNP’s Alex Salmond, that there’s to be a “national conversation”, a distinctly new Labour term, on the future governance of Scotland could present a real challenge for Brown.
For on the one hand he wants to head off the SNP pressure and might consider more devolution - but how does he do that without the role of Scottish Labour MPs at Westminster becoming an issue for the Tories to exploit.
Until now the Tories have found it difficult getting any mileage out of EVEL (English Votes for English Laws) and the associated WLQ. The latter - the West Lothian Question named after the seat of old-Etonian former Labour MP, Tam Dayell, - asks whether it is just that members of the UK Parliament elected from Scotland can vote on issues only affecting England, but English MPs, in turn, cannot vote on these same aspects in relation to Scotland.
But if there is any further move to devolution, as seems the likely compromise, will Gordon be able to square it with the role of Scottish Labour MPs without whom Labour would
Also if Scotland is given more powers then, undoubtedly, Salmond will use them to ratchet up the pressure to get even more. He’s already shown what a fly operator he is in the way he has carried out his duties as First Minister so far. The current campaign on Scotland having its own BBC Six of Clock news programme has no cost attached to the Scottish Executive but is enormously appealing to large sections of the population.not be hard put to have a majority at Westminster?
There’s also a general election dimension here. Would Gord go to the country just at the time when this is developing as an issue? The last thing he wants, surely, is for a campaign to be dominated by EVEL?
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People often forgot that it was the Scottish devolution issue, not the so called “winter of discontent”, that brought Jim Callaghan’s Labour government down in 1979. Gord knows he has to tread carefully.
I’ve written here before about a dinner in Oxford a few months before the 2001 general election when I found myself sitting next to George Osborne who was not then even an MP. I recall him arguing strongly that the Scottish question was an explosive issue for the Tories to exploit “when the time was ripe”. Could that be now?
The latest Betfair price on a 2007 general election is 5.4/1.
Mike Smithson
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The BBC News thing is actually a very canny step. Anything that provides shared experiences for the English and the Scottish will lead the two lots of people to feel like they are similar, and thus support the union. If the main issues presented by the news each day are different, people will start thinking of themselves seperately and feel less in common with the English. It’s all very clever.
OT: I looked up Tim Mongomerie’s new bird:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/4657183.stm
Anyone listing “Jesus” as their hero needs a slap.
I agree that it is one further issue that makes a 2007 election less likely. On the previous and other threads I have priced 2007 up at 8/1.
Mike, Peter from Putney has invited you to put up your own assessment of the odds. Jack W has suggested 7/2. You have said you are not yet persuaded. Can you convert that to your own assessment of the odds please?
“… a few months before the 2001 general election when I found myself sitting next to George Osborne who was not then even an MP …”
That reminds me of a comment made by [I can't remember who] soon after 1997, who predicted that the next Conservative Prime Minister would be “someone who isn’t even an MP yet”.
I don’t think anyone has told the Scottish comservatives yet that the best way to keep Brown on the back foot would be to push for a referendum in scotland.
The Brown bounce is a media fantasy much questioned by poll analysts. He would rather turn Tory than go to the country in the current circumstances.
In any case, he can’t call a GE until he has settled the EUSR Constitution issue through Parliament or referendum, and until he has settled Scotland down, not to mention Iraq. All his election talk is bluff designed to keep opponents down, stir up the media and keep his own rebels quiet (at least 40 Labour MPs do not support the EUSR Constitution).
Brown is in a highly precarious position. The Americans read him as too pro-Europe and Murdoch is ramping up trouble for him by pushing for a referendum on the EUSR Constitution. Murdoch is consolidating major gains in US media and has to move along with the mood in Washington now Blair has moved on.
Cameron would be able to safely start opening up attacks on Brown in these circumstances, if only his own Party were solidly behind Cameron’s undoubted euroscepticism. Ken Clarke is always floating around in the background, frantic to protect his life’s work promoting the EUSR, and William Hague always complicates and fudges EUSR issues by trying to be too clever, as if he believes some intelligent compromise might be possible.
Cameron might well be finding he can safely swing his reliance over more onto the ‘drier’ members of his team and away from the ‘wet’ like Hague. If he does, his appeal can only grow.
The BBC and the Guardian will be spitting as they have been over Redwood, but they look and sound a bit barmy,as they try to find ways to stop well reasoned arguments. Brown’s ‘virtuous’ economy is in trouble with government spending too high, and the consumer economy pressured by rising interest rates. Cameron’s opportunities are growing all the time.
Wonder if there is relevance here in the experience of Quebec and Canada.
IF yes, then the road to independence is neither swift nor sure. The process of defining terms is time consuming, even in just one official language (I think.) And in the closer you get to a “Yes” (”Wah” in Montreal) majority for independence, the harder it is to achieve the extra increment needed to reach the magic number.
BOTH Scotland and Quebec have significant non-Scot/Quebecois minorities. In Quebec as in Scotland nationalists (both groups are predominantly leftwing) have worked hard cultivating minority voters and candidates. BUT in Quebec it was local English-speaking and minority communities who defeated the last independence referendum. Suggest that similar phenomina might occur in Scotland.
Bottom line is that like the Quebeckers, the Scots are a hard-headed bunch. In order to pass an independence referendum, the SNP will have to convince a LOT of sceptical Caledonians that leaving the United Kingdom make sense for themselves and Scotland - not for SNP activists or Labour MPs or English Tories.
And that conversation is going to take a lot longer than 15 minutes.
Main impact upon next general election is likely psychological. Labour’s problem right now is that it is just helping reinforce SNP’s message, which is a cross between “Cool Caledonia” and “Not McConnell’s Misfits”. Savvy tranfer of SLP leadership from JMcC’s palsied hands will help deal with #2, but will take some time to pull off. Which is itself an argument against Fall GE.
Though there is a possible counteargument: provided Gordon Brown could make a reasonably persuasive case for a 2007 election (which I think is possible) then it just might jolt the Scots electorate & media out of it’s current Alex Salmond Lovefest and into the bright but subdued glow of Gordon Brown’s Britain. Because the Scots I think are used to changing gears in this way when it comes to Holyrood versus Westminster.
Difference this time (whether GE is in 2007 or 2008) may be whether or not Alex Salmond has succeeded/will succeed in making the SNP relevant for Scottish voters in Westminster elections. That perceived lack of relevance has been like an anvil to Nat candidates. IF Salmond can convince that SNP MPs have any role at Westminister beyond drawing their pay and other allowances, then he might give Labour’s Thorney Island delegation a significant trimming. THough personally will believe it when/if it happens.
SO if anything Conservative stategy should be to make encouraging noises to the SNP. So naturally the Tories are doing the opposite . . . except on the blogs!
Posted on previous thread in response to Mike’s kind offer…
“135 No you couldn’t, Mike, but I’ll stick with what I got, thanks.
I may be nervous, but I’m not panicking - yet.”
And yes, Scotland is a reason (but not the main one) why GB won’t go early.
re 3 & 7. I think that there about a 15% chance that there’ll be a 2007 and the probability is declining by the day.
This from Michael White in the Guardian makes interesting reading - http://tinyurl.com/2pmz2h
#5 Agree that Brown is likely less convinced by his bounce that most journos & pundits.
Not sure I understand your eurotiming argument. And Iraq is either an reason for having the election now and dealing, or dealing now and having the election later.
Do NOT agree with your analysis of US perception of Brown. Interest in Europe period just isn’t that big in US. Though some of us are concerned it reportedly costs $10 for a Coke on the Champs Elysee. We see Gordon Brown in context of the Special Relationship, and through the prism of the W-TB romance. Fact that GB isn’t all come-hither is a plus, because the Blair fatigue you felt is at least equalled by Bush fatigue over here.
MURDOCH - his recent purchase of the Wall Street Journal is indeed major news. But what it means precisely is unclear. WSJ previous owners, editors, journos were scared to death of Rupert, but caved in because of the bottom line all around. BUT seems they got some kind of guarantees (however feeble) from RM. Which may not mean a lot in the long run, but might in short term. Also, keep in mind that RM knows that the politicos who cut ice for him these days inside the beltway aren’t the clapped out bunker-dwellers of the Cheney administration, but Congressional Democratic committee chairs who can make his life a hell on earth now and for the forseeable future IF they want to.
As for Murdoch & UK politics NOTE that a month or so ago WSJ ran a glowing account of the success of congestion pricing in London in cutting conjestion and pollution. (Seemed odd to me too!)
TODAY the US Secretary of Transportation announced that the Cheney Administration is backing New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg’s proposal for CONGESTION PRICING in Manhattan with both policy backing and massive federal financial contribution.
Also note that Mayor Bloomberg, founder and proprietor of Bloomberg News, a former Democrat elected twice as a Republican (and villified by 2nd amendment activists for his support for gun control) is considering running for President as an Independent.
BACK IN THE UK -consider the possibility that a drier, more euro-focused Tory campaign is just what Gordon Brown prays for every night.
But it is true that higher interest rates are NOT good for GB. Note that Down Under, high interest rates appear to be sounding the death rattle for Australian PM John Howard, who is currently behind in the polls verus the Labor Party both nationally AND in his own suburban Sydney seat.
IOWA & NEW HAMPSHIRE STATE POLLS
Am sure punters are familiar with US national polls. But also take a gander at key state polls:
University of Iowa Poll
Aug 4, 2007
Hillary Clinton 27%
Barack Obama 22%
John Edwards 22%
Bill Richardson 9%
Unsure 16%
Other 4%
Mitt Romney 27%
Rudy Giuliani 11%
Fred Thompson 7%
Tom Tancredo 4%
Sam Brownback 4%
John McCain 3%
Mike Huckabee 3%
Unsure 31%
Other 10%
New Hampshire: American Research Group
July 28, 2007
Hillary Clinton 31%
Barack Obama 31%
John Edwards 14%
Bill Richardson 7%
Joe Biden 2%
Chris Dodd 1%
Dennis Kucinich 1%
Unsure 13%
Rudy Giuliani 27%
Mitt Romney 26%
Fred Thompson 13%
John McCain 10%
Newt Gingrich 6%
Tom Tancredo 1%
Duncan Hunter 1%
Sam Brownback 1%
Mike Huckabee 1%
Ron Paul 1%
Unsure 13%
Both of these polls are getting a bit long in tooth, esp. NH, Both are pre-Obama’s Paki/Nuke remarks; and IA survey is pre-straw poll.
DEM SIDE My guess is that Hilary is currently up on above numbers, while Obama is down some. Edwards may also be up, ditto Richardson (think some of his votes are moderates in holding pattern, waiting to see what shakes).
REP SIDE Likely that Romney is up a bit, Huckabee also, rest probably not much changed, except Gingrich support (conservatives in holding pattern) may start gravitating elsewhere.
IOWA & NEW HAMPSHIRE STATE POLLS
Am sure punters are familiar with US national polls. But also take a gander at key state polls:
University of Iowa Poll
Aug 4, 2007
Hillary Clinton 27%
Barack Obama 22%
John Edwards 22%
Bill Richardson 9%
Unsure 16%
Other 4%
Mitt Romney 27%
Rudy Giuliani 11%
Fred Thompson 7%
Tom Tancredo 4%
Sam Brownback 4%
John McCain 3%
Mike Huckabee 3%
Unsure 31%
Other 10%
New Hampshire: American Research Group
July 28, 2007
Hillary Clinton 31%
Barack Obama 31%
John Edwards 14%
Bill Richardson 7%
Joe Biden 2%
Chris Dodd 1%
Dennis Kucinich 1%
Unsure 13%
Rudy Giuliani 27%
Mitt Romney 26%
Fred Thompson 13%
John McCain 10%
Newt Gingrich 6%
Tom Tancredo 1%
Duncan Hunter 1%
Sam Brownback 1%
Mike Huckabee 1%
Ron Paul 1%
Unsure 13%
Both of these polls are getting a bit long in tooth, esp. NH, Both are pre-Obama’s Paki/Nuke remarks; and IA survey is pre-straw poll.
DEM SIDE My guess is that Hilary is currently up on above numbers, while Obama is down some. Edwards may also be up, ditto Richardson (think some of his votes are moderates in holding pattern, waiting to see what shakes).
REP SIDE Likely that Romney is up a bit, Huckabee also, rest probably not much changed, except Gingrich support (conservatives in holding pattern) may start gravitating elsewhere.
2
Jesus who?
Thank you PtP @ 105 last night.
Regards
Good article Mike, Salmond is making the running with his devolution white paper at the moment. But am I the only person who finds his smugness off-putting?
Scots Tories have got to decide quickly whether they want a Scottish referendum or not - as usual, there’s no clear steer from the leadership, so they’re drifting.
5. You are of course right, Tapestry, that the Tories are still split on Europe, and this problem will soon erupt again. This split involves leading political figures [not like w**kers such as Kelvin Hopkins on the labour side who Gordon can easily brush aside]
As far as we can see, (all will be revealed, apparently, on Friday) Redwood/Osborne want Britain to pull out of key EU treaties, which will put Clarke, Hague and others in an impossible position. The lemming tendency of the Tories wish to go into the next election with the slogan - “no more paid holidays, no protection at work, it’s all an EU plot”. People like Hague will find this difficult to accept, simply because he’s sane.
It is not true by the way that scepticism about Redder’s proposals only comes from the Guardian. His press conf was obviously wobbly and he seems to have upset the hacks generally. Read and enjoy Quentin Lett’s piece in the Daily Mail.
I quote:
Mr Redwood approached the lectern with a slow, rolling walk and grabbed hold of its edges as though he was about to try and rip it from the floor. After a stare at the audience he started to talk about “the bodies that we can quite easily do without”. Yikes! Was this another line from Arnie the Terminator? Was he about to go on the rampage with an automatic rifle?
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/pages/live/articles/columnists/columnists.html?in_article_id=334108&in_page_id=1772&in_author_id=228
[10][11] “IA survey” - I didn’t do it
Who needs being in government? When opposition pays so much better.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article2260865.ece
..will Gordon be able to square it with the role of Scottish Labour MPs without whom Labour would not have a majority at Westminster?
Labour have an overall majority at Westminster even if you exclude the 39 Scottish Labour MPs.
re 17 Amended - thanks
Meanwhile …. The “Daily Torygraph” reports that multi-millionaire Labour backer Lord Paul is prepared to splash the cash if Gordon decides to go for an early election :
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2007/08/15/nelec115.xml
A shorter entry - unlike Tapestry and others above (I haven’t the time to read such long stuff - haven’t you guys got jobs).
Scotland will never become a “celtic tiger” within the UK - its culture is too “Old Labour” - and that applies to all the parties and the UK structure sustains that - Barnett formula etc
Salmond is naive if he thinks he can replace Barnett money with oil revenue
I’m not scottish (one parent was, and I have spent a lot of time there)-but I do feel they will never grow up politically unless they break from UK and fly on their own
The “United Kingdom” is not a euphemism for “English Empire” - it is consensual and if they want out, they should have it.
On cue, conservative blogger Iain Dale announces this morning
“I am disappointed Scottish Conservatives jerked their knees and rejected a referendum…out of hand.”
Here we go again - tory activists and the leadership going in opposite directions.
Jack, that is the third link we have had to that story, the first being two days ago. Please try to keep up. We don’t want Mike introducing an age limit for posters, do we?
Meanwhile II …. following on from coldstone @ 16 the “Torygraph” also takes a look at the part-time nature of the Shadow Cabinet :
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2007/08/15/ntory115.xml
20 Absolutely, John W. If they want it, they should have it.
Personally, I think it would be daft but it’s their call.
I find the odds on a 2007 eneral election tempting and may very well take the plunge.
1/ Brown can justify it as confirming his leadership.
2/ He’s in his honeymoon period. The polls are good. He knows that won’t last.
3/ He knows a big economic crash is coming; he’ll want to get the GE out of the way first.
4/ Once he’s re-elected he’s got 5 glorious years to be PM without worrying about ratings or popularity and he’ll end on the triumph of ‘his’ olympics in 2012.
I have one eye on the FTSE and if that dips below 6,000 today I will have a small wager.
Sad to say economic turmoil looms large and the conservatives do not appear to have noticed.
Another “open goal” missed by the Old Etonian cabal.
22 PtP. Don’t blame me … it’s in todays “Torygraph” !!
BTW …. further news is reaching JNN of Rik W’s lettuce cult as reported at the back end of the last thread !!
More later.
20 John W
Actually, IIRC, the politics behind the Act of Union was rather English - pushed, and I think there would be a big debate around your “not an English Empire” contention. Certainly in the case of Wales, the situation was very much conquest and imperialism. I can see why you say “I am not Scottish”, but I think most people might say they were “half Scottish” with your background?
25 Herbert
If you are, just have a look first at post 129 from last night, in which I tried to summarise fairly the range of views on the odds.
(Try to ignore the lettuce stuff. It got a bit wacky late on.)
26 That’s no excuse, Jack. If you are going to read the Gerontorygraph, you must be held partly responsible for its contents.
The matter will be referred.
What always amazes me ,is why any one would be impressed because a poltician is on the board. They must be a really good company, worth investing in, look at whose on the board, the Shadow Minster for something totally pointless, ‘Get onto my broker, must buy shares in them’
Then again they’re always learning about, ‘real life’ hmmmm real life always involves sitting in a very large boardroom somewhere in the city, eating lots of big expensive lunches, and use of the company whore on Wednesdays: I’ve obviously never had a ‘real life’: pity really.
I’d be really impressed, if learning about ‘real life’ involved working as a hospital porter a couple of days a week, or in a sewage farm etc, but then again I don’t suppose that qualifies as ‘real life’
2 Anyone fancy attempting to slap Nadine? She’d kick your butt and follow it up with a karate chop to the gonads but feel free to make faux brave comments on a blog about the hardest MP in the House (except maybe DD).
Sea Shanty Irish @ 10,11 re US Presidency — my US mole suggests Gingrich is cosying up to Huckabee, and they recently co-wrote an article about health on Real Clear Politics http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2007/08/healthy_americans_mean_a_healt.html
Both are big prices in a field which I believe is ripe for an upset. I’d have thought Huckabee/Gingrich is more likely than Gingrich on top, and have invested a speculative tenner at 50/1 with Blue Square. Wealth warning: Republicans normally stick with the favourites.
Mike.
You seem to be searching for ways of justifying your stance on the GE timing. I don’t understand the point you make here. More powers for a Scottish Parliament will take a long time to put through. I suspect the UK Parliament wouldn’t do anything until well into next year, if not into 2009.
I can’t see how GB escapes this issue if he goes in May next year. On the contrary at the moment Labour have the position where they are prepared to consider changes but it’s all rather vague. Next year it will get far more specific. Whenever GB goes the WLQ will be an issue but, like Europe, it isn’t going to win an election for the Tories.
More pertinent are the foot and mouth tests due out today, I suppose. If, god forbid, the disease has spread outside the existing zone, and particularly if it has spread to Romney Marsh, then that would certainly make October less likely. I will also be looking closely at the timing of the Scottish leadership elections to see whether there’s a clue there although I suppose a temporary leader could be appointed who would be in place for an October poll.
28. PtP. Happy to see Mike confirms he is in the same ballpark as you and I on a 2007 election.
Best odds from PBabet.com
Coldstonedirect 5/2 Putneys 3/1
Jackdone 7/2
Peter Power 6/1
Smithsons 7/1
St.John365 8/1
34 Very nice, StJohn
But be careful. At a stand out 8/1, you may have Herbert after you for one of them there Private Wagers!
6 - “BUT in Quebec it was local English-speaking and minority communities who defeated the last independence referendum. Suggest that similar phenomina might occur in Scotland.”
I’m not sure about that. A lot of English folk in Scotland ‘go native’ and voting for the SNP is, well, like voting for any other social democratic party but with a caledonian tint. That’s probably expressed in a clumsy way but, put simple, I don’t think the English vote is necessarily an anti-independence block.
The other difference between Scotland and the Quebec scenario is, of course, language. Even if Scotland did become independent, there would still remains a high degree of familiarity for people of English birth in Scotland and so the feeling of being forced to become part of a ‘foreign country’ would be less profound.
Salmond, of course, is astute to present his party as reasonable - nothing would guarantee a sharper move back to unionism within the population than letting the hairy ranters (the kind of people who inhabit the Scotsman’s comment columns) become the defining voice of independence.
35. Peter. Herbert is welcome to log on to my website but the maximum return offered today on this market by StJohn365 is 10 pounds.
However if he is successful he gets a free bet to the same stake on the London Mayoral election, as long as the result is screened live on Channel 4.
37
How much of this “independence” malarkey is economic?
If Scotland hadn’t depopulated and performed poorly as an economy for the last 30 years - and more - I wonder how much lower support for independence would be?
Yes, yes, “Oil” etc. But athe Gas-fields are English and the City of London is home to many of the financial services and businesses that generate plenty of cash for the UK exchequer too.
Isn’t it slightly ironic that by so many Scots voting for left-wing parties over the years they have perpetuatued a stagnant economy which has now led to resentment against the “Union” when it is the parties themselves that are to blame?
My solution would be to devolve tax-raising powers to Scotland. Let them have “their” oil revenues, scrap the Barnett formula and let them set some sensibly low-taxes to kickstart their economy.
This solution, i feel, would satisfy enough Scots and English to preserve the union.
The people should be given the opportunity to propose topics on which to have a referendum. These shouldn’t be dropped like crumbs from the table of the political elite. I am sure most Scots would like to see a referendum to bring back hanging and probably on a whole lot of other issues which they see as important as independence. I like the Swiss model where a people’s initiative can force the political establishment into having a referendum.
“My solution would be to devolve tax-raising powers to Scotland” I believe Scotland already ha the power to increase or lower income tax.
41 - by up to 3%, I think.
BREAKING NEWS **** BREAKING NEWS **** BREAKING NEWS **** BREAKING NEWS
News reaches JNN that the Green Salad Wing of the Conservative Party has undertaken a healthy living coup in Reading. The leader of this low calorie uprising Mr Rik Willis has issued the following statement :
“As the Conservatives have gone green, so Reading must lead the way !! … I say to the people of Berkshire ‘Lettuce Us Entertain You.’. And as your elected representative I will lead the way and introduce the Cos Lettuce Appreciation Programme to the people of Reading. Let the clarion call go out - Rik Willis is giving the CLAP to all and sundry.”
Mr Willis is seen here canvassing his electorate in his recent salad days of the May election victory :
http://www.wayodd.com/funny-pictures2/funny-pictures-the-lettuce-dork-1NV.jpg
We should have a fully federal UK. A Scottish, Welsh and NI Parliament (with Scottish powers for all). Then the English can decide whether they want an English Parliament (in Birmingham!) or regional government. The Westminister UK parliament will then be concerned with UK wide matters, eg defence, foreign affairs, EU negotiations etc etc. If the English want a Parliament, then the Westminister English MPs could sit at both English and UK wide levels. Or they can opt to sit in one and not the other.
What do you think?
Alliance & Leicester Mastercard update - Credit Crunch gathers pace:
Monthly Cost of Credit increased to 1.4566% …..
Isn’t it slightly ironic that by so many Scots voting for left-wing parties over the years they have perpetuated a stagnant economy which has now led to resentment against the “Union” when it is the parties themselves that are to blame?
Yes, but Scotland voted for devolution in 1997…just after a centre-right government had been in charge of Scottish economic policy for the last 18 years.
On a more general level, it’s a common conception that Scots prize the welfare state as it is an embodiment of ideals of social solidarity and so forth. I’m never sure whether this conception has a basis in reality or whether an attachment to the welfare state (and this applies to the rest of the UK as well) is actually a fear that we would all stand to potentially personally suffer and go to hell in a handcart if there wasn’t a safety net. In other words, same policy outcome but for more ’selfish’ reasons.
Tory Boy. Simple answer is to pay off on time. That’s what I do. I absdolutely refuse to pay the extortionate rates of interest of the credit card companies.
I know several English living in Scotland. Whilst they may not actually vote SNP, they are broadly pro-SNP and definitely pro-Salmond. They may well back independence in a referendum. I don’t know if this is an effort try to be “more Scottish than the Scottish.”
It is a red herring to think of non-Scots in Scotland as being anti-independence. I see know analogy to Quebec at all.
41/42 - True. But that’s not full tax-raising powers, is it? They can just “wobble around the middle” with Income Tax. Not enough.
Redflump - As per your suggested model, it seems sensible as a long-term solution. It’s the details that would need sorting, as you say.
49 - I was never a details person Casino!
This would answer the WLQ though. And the English people would then decide if they wanted a parliament to decide their domestic affairs, regional assemblies or a combination of the two.
48 SBS - You asked about Russian odds yesterday (37) and I answered at 91. Did you see it?
Goldie is entirely correct with rejecting a referendum. It would lead to 6 months of publicity to the SNP headbangers. The SNP won about 35% of the electorate and recent polls suggest only 31% want independence so why should we have a referendum? The reality is that it will not happen.
At the same time why are we not having a referendum on the European constitution which the majority of people want and would almost certainly lead to a change in Government policy?
The news issue again is a bit of a red herring. With the proliferation of radio and TV channels it is impossible to control the airwaves. Radio BBC Scotland reaches about 22% of potential listeners which is much higher than most BBC English regional stations. This station benefits from a very good coverage of live sports events. It appears strongest in the North of Scotland and weakest in the metropolitan areas. Salmond did get a laugh with his comment that the BBC is hideously White City.
What surprises me is that Cameron has not pushed on the issue of transfering powers back to the communities. This is one area where Labour is weak and maybe why it lost the Scottish, Welsh and English council elections. It seems crazy to me that decisions on shutting of hospitals in England is made without any input from the local people, police chiefs are appointed by central government and not their communities and school admission policy is decided centrally. Why did Cameron not come out and say that grammar schools are a matter for local communities and not central government?
I think the most interesting decision will be how the Tories fight the London mayor battle. If they fight like Salmond on getting more powers from central government to fight crime and improve the transport system they may well win. Why not have the Met Police Chief appointed by the Mayor as in New York?
51 - I did see it. I’m off to France on Saturday for a couple of weeks so won’t be able to post. When odds next appear to Russian presidentials, I’ll post on it. I have a source who is a researcher on the area, and can give a bit of the lowdown on the runners and riders.
I think Russia has parliamentary elections before the presidential elections, and this will give a good pointer as to how the various blocs / factions are doing.
But you’re right - Ivanov is still top dog.
50 Jon L. Well as long as the policy of having a referendum is born out of constitutional principle and not party advantage ?!?!
44 - And if England doesnt want a Parliament (or regional government) then everyone has to stop going on about WLQ and EVEL and accept the status quo, deal?
46 Even during the period 1979-97, the Scottish establishment was overwhelmingly left wing, though. My view is that entrepeneurs are viewed with far greater hostility North of the Border than in, say, the South East of England.
That is also the big difference between Scotland and the Irish Republic. The Irish have taken to capitalism like a duck to water.
As a footnote to 48, I think many English and minorities try to fit in by being more Scottish than the Scots. The trouble is that being faux Scots is not enough and people are judged more by other factors.
I think a recent joke sums up the issue. “The airport bombers were really dumb trying to start a religious war in Glasgow. Didnt anyone tell them they were 400 years too late and they dont even have a football team.”
53 The way my Kremlin watchers explained it to me was that you just have to watch the press reports. It matters not a jot what they say, it’s the volume of column inches. When I was talking to them a few weeks back, they reckoned Ivanov was getting the greater volume by a ratio of 2:1 compared to Medvedev. Nobody else seemed to feature. There was no mention of Putin changing the rules, so he probably won’t.
It will interesting to see how that compares with what your comrades say.
Last price I saw was 11/10 Ivanov (Paddy Power) and I topped up my earlier bet at 9/1. Haven’t seen any odds at all lately though.
55. The way to solve EVEL is for the Scottish Parliment to have some MSPs from England
39. The idea that an independent Scotland - or even a fiscally independent one - could become some kind of low-tax nirvana is a fantasy. The fiscal situation and the political culture of the country are completely at odds with such an outcome. It is just being floated by the SNP and others as a wheeze to broaden their support.
44 Totally agree.The logic of devolution is that there should be full domestic responsibility ina English,welsh,scottish and N Ireland parliament going with full taxraising powers.
The UK wide assembly role should be a replacemnt for the House of Lords which serves no ueseful purpose.
Roger H
55 Agree totally!!
O/T Sporting Index have at last reopened their General Election Seats MArket. No change, as far as I can see. Somebody must have come back from holiday.
Incidentally, the mismatch between Betfair and SI persists. The former is predicting a Labour majority, SI a Hung Parliament. You can’t arb it, because they are different types of market, but whatever your view, there’s good value there somewhere; or, if you are uncertain, plenty of opportunity to back and hedge.
56, as an entrepreneur in Glasgow I think you would be surprised by the number of very successful businessmen up here. The difference is that there is a much greater responsibility of the boss to look after his staff but in return you get very loyal workers. The clan system is not fully dead.
Where Scotland does fail is its ability to build PLCs. People do not respect professional businessmen who do not have strong links with their staff.
52 “The news issue again is a bit of a red herring”
Apologies if I’m starting to sound a bit too full of praise for Salmond but again he is being quite astute here.
Apart from the benefit raised by Mike in his introduction, this is an example of Salmond consolidating elements of the Scottish Establishment behind him (and the Scottish Establishment is every bit as distinct from the English Establishment as, say, the Irish establishment).’Independence’ for the Scottish Civil Service is another example of this tendency.
47 Thanks for the advice - but I haven’t paid a pennies interest on
Credit Cards in my life though.
Tight wad or what !
Unfortunately, not many people are in that fortunate position and even some that are are too stupid or lazy to do so.
58 - yes, I think it would be a bit late in the day now for Putin to try to stay on.
In Finland a week ago, spent a bit of time watching Russian TV. I don’t understand much, but there is a much stronger nationalist flavour (whether parades or folk festivals) than in recent years. There’s a lot of pride, and confidence in Russia now, and the TV looks pretty flash.
Also a fair bit of anti-British propaganda - mention of a big demo in London against Harry Potter books - and criticising the British for being silly. I don’t remember such a demo.)
Any constitutional changes, such as for independence/further devolution and the new EU treaty (read constitution), need referendums. I’d be perfectly happy with referendums for both of these things, at least labour are consistent in opposing both, even though they are consistently wrong, but how can the tories ask for one and oppose the other?
The Salmond honeymoon (something which points up the nature of the media led nature of Brown’s honeymoon, ’shiny new things’ etc.) is a real factor that could affect a 2007 election. The question is, would Brown make any inroads in the time available if he didn’t go for it?
67 Hmm…Last time I was in Finland, the Russians were about as popular as syphilis. Have times changed?
Apologies if this is old news but Jack McConnell has now resigned
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/scotland/6946730.stm
12 Lord Paul of Marylebone, who is reportedly worth £450 million, made it clear that he was ready to dig deep to assist the Prime Minister.
he says he will give what he can afford, ok so 400 million plus coming into labour coffers then!!
How big do people think a donation would have to be before it was to big to accept. For example if labour did get a 400m donation would the pressure to give it back be to much?
71 A couple of million would be about the limit, Red Flag. However, if he wished to give to me, a much larger figure would be perfectly acceptable.
69 - no the Russians are now despised as much as ever in Finland. A recent survey showed the Russians had the lowest rating in Finland of all countries survey. No chance of Finland abandoning compulsory military service before the year 2525.
However, my wife’s family, although ethnically Finnish were all raised in Russia and were only allowed to move to Finland in 1991. Her uncle and aunt like to watch Russian TV.
71 I don’t know, to be honest. I couldn’t answer that in theory.
I’m not sure what sort of sum Lord Paul is thinking of donating. My impression is that he’s not intending to underwrite Labour’s whole campaign.
On this subject, we should get judgement in about a fortnight on the case of the man who left the Conservatives £8m.
2. Lets assume Jesus existed and was what he is reported to be.
If that was so he’d be a hero to me as well. The man was the ultimate charity worker. Ok a bit meek on it but come on. That guy was dealing with the marginalised thousands of years before it became a celebrity sport.
Top bloke despite the rumoured hippie hair.
20. sorry John about long entries. not my normal style. didn’t sleep so well! Sea Shanty’s reply shows some detailed knowledge of the Murdoch/US situation. It was Irwin Stelzer who wrote in Spectator that Brown is too pro-Europe. (see my blog)
Blair’s departure has coincided with Murdoch landing the WSJ. Murdoch seems to be strongly anti-EUSR Constitution, while playing the Brown bounce narrative. It appeals to some of us to look beneath the surface.
As for Conservative strategy, as with Redwood, they will propose policies which are not anti-European in purpose, but which point out waste of resources and imply an altered relationship with the EU, as is currently being proposed by Hague and Kirkhope MEP. They will not run a UKIP style campaign, but one which teases the cultural marxism entrenched in the media, and gets them to do the ranting and looking unbalanced. As happened with Redwood last week.
[52] Why not have the Met Police Chief appointed by the Mayor as in New York?
A pedant writes: New York isn’t a capital city.
31. Easy feller! Despite your overreaction to “faux brave comments” I clearly was not literally threatening the woman! It was more a turn of phrase, like “needs some sense knocked into her”. I was just pointing out how pathetically lame it was. “Oh, look at me I’m so devout I put Jesus as my hero, look at how bolshy I am.” It’s the sort of thing that George Bush would do.
But I seem to have struck a nerve of some sort. Are you Nadine Dorries. Or maybe Tim Mongomerie jumping to the defence of your new love and fellow Bible thumper? Hmmm….
And “hardest MP in the commons! Ha! What’s she going to do? Send the army of God after me?
76. Stelzer also wrote an anti-immigration article in the Telegraph today which rubbishes the government’s proposed points system.
75. I really think he should have had a shave before he posed for all those photos though…..as my mum always used to say never trust a man with a beard
80. Yeah you can hide things in a beard, like lice.
And with that thought, enjoy your lunch there everyone….
55. It’s perfectly reasonable to support a fair status for England while also opposing a nonsensical extra layer of politicians and bureaucrats. I remember a great Matt cartoon a few years back which came out while the European regions were in the news and devolution was being implemented. It had two hikers at the top of a mountain, with one saying “Wow. From up here you can see seven layers of government!”
75. The meekness of Jesus is one of the biggest myths of Christianity. If we are to assume that his words and actions in the gospels was accurate he was a religious zealot who cursed eternal damnation on all those who disagreed with him, and argued they deserved punishment “in this world and the next.” The incident where he called a non-Jew a dog unfit for his help is also not particularly pleasant.
i think that you can easily get away with 5m as wheeler gave the tories that in 2005, i think that 10 million could be explained away as well, the most you can realistically expect to get away with though before it does have to go back would be say 20m
eg “I am giving this money so that Gordon Brown and the Labour party can have a fresh start debt free”
Oh how i would laugh if we got given 20m
82 - this is an important point. I would not want to foist umpteen layers of government on anyone. This is why my proposal would resut in strengthening local councils. I see it like this: Local councils/authorities => Local Parliament/Assembly => UK Parliament.
82. oops…opened a can of worms up there I think…
84. What’s wrong with local councils/authorities => UK Parliament?
I think we should have a simple system where every region is offered the chance of a parliament, and those that select it don’t get their MPs being able to vote on devolved matters. This would apply the same whether it was Scotland, London or the Southwest.
You can currently buy Labour seats on SI at 320.
Surely with boundary changes, anything less than 320 would effectively mean a Tory or Tory/LD landslide?!
87 Robert. No. Anything down to Labour at around 260 indicates a hung parliament.
Jon at 64 - admittedly OT but as English immigrant entrepreneur in Scotland, I’m interested to know how you deal with staff. Are you tolerant of lax work or do you tend to kick back against it? The reason I ask is that I tend to take a dim view of inept work but sometimes made to feel that I’m not being cultural sensitive enough.
I’ll emphasis I’m not speaking about sending children up chimneys or working 18 hour shifts in the dark but just things like pretending deadlines don’t exist, you don’t need to deliver value etc (incidentally the majority of problems I receive in this regard come from immigrant lifestylers like myself who are looking for an easier life!)
89 Stephen B. Sack the shirkers and employ Andrea … Sorted Guv.
Jack (88) I don’t mean in terms of what happens in the Commons afterwards, just in the context of the last GE. From reading PB posts over the past year or so, I’ve got the impression that boundary changes should give Labour an extra 20 or so seats at the next GE, and that therefore a result of 320 would mean the Tories doing extraordinarily well compared to last time.
Have I got this boundary change thing wrong?
91. Yes, completely.
91 Yes! the boundary changes have almost precisely the opposite effect.
87 - Robert
The 320 figures implies Tories at about 240/250, which is roughly what my more realistic Tory friends seem to regard as a decent benchmark figure. Anything above that, they would regard as a good result.
Jack’s a bit out (post 88) I think with his 260. Labour would have to be below 240 before you get into Tory majority territory, unless you suppose an LD meltdown.
Here’s one estimate of the effect of the changes; others are a little more favourable to Labour IIRC but they all tell the same story; Labour loses, the Tories gain.
http://www.ukpollingreport.co.uk/guide/about-notional-results
90 - But Jack, why pay Andrea when I can merely drop an innocuous sounding question into the discussion on PB and get the answer for free…!
Are you still after property in Sutherland? This one looks a bargain.
94 PtP. Assuming 75 for the Lib Dems and Others and then add 260 for Labour leaves the Tories at 325 = 650 seats = Tory majority.
96 Stephen B. Cheapskate !!
Ah THAT croft …. venue for the last Scottish Tory Conference …. there was plenty of room !!
97 Moi. Sorry, should be 65 for Lib Dems and Others.
98 - I can only that assume Mr Soames wasn’t invited to the Scottish Tory Party conference that year?
New cases of F&M - Negative acording to DEFRA. Thank god for that.
Initial tests on both suspected foot and mouth cases negative.
On a separate point, according to the Scotsman, looks like Wendy Alexander may face no contest and should be confirmed as Scottish Labour leader by the end of next month. Two potential rivals have ruled themselves out.
More good economic news - unemployment down by 45,000 and wage settlements at 3.3%, lowest for four years.
Rates peaked at 5.75%?
97 After allowing for boundary changes (which do indeed favour Conservatives a lot, and others a little), LD and others would have 93 seats. You think that will come down to 65?!
Have you told Ming?
RedFlump I wouldn’t be surprised if the next interest rate move was down. What will the Bank of England and the ECB do if the Fed starts to cut rates because of the sub prime crisis? I really don’t see how they can let the dollar plummet to $2.50 to the £ or $1.75 to the euro.
83 - How can anyone like the idea of one person bankrolling a political party? This brings us back to the darkness at the heart of what we are talking about, something that those involved are praying will go away, cash for honours is still there and one of the reasons that politics is held in such contempt, add to that the way that individuals are given too much input in return for donations and we may as well have a system where the highest bidder wins.
I sincerely hope that cash for honours comes back to haunt any present and future government, this has been a chance to show how the system was changing, a start had been made with the Major government and now it’s been put into reverse. To have labour supporters greeting it as a party political issue has been particularly sickening, partisan politics at its worst - think about honour, think about justice and examine your consciences; seriously.
I’d bet on a lower turnout at the next election (as long as we get past this honeymoon period) unless this is brought out into the open, apologies are made and the system is completely overhauled. We may need to start from scratch again before anything approaching trust and honesty is believed to exist.
104 PtP. if the Tories were in majority territory then it’s likely the Lib Dems would be squeezed somewhat … down to around 40 ish.
100 Stephen B. Soames arrived at the last Scottish conference in some style …. clearly requiring space for the odd repast !
http://hpbimg.castlesoftheseas.nl/QE201.JPG
They’d better hurry and give England her own Parliament, because I know for a fact that the calls for complete independence are growing by the day.
This isn’t a Union, its apartheid, McLabour style. The sooner it ends, the better for all in England.
107 OK, I’ll let you off, Jack. The figures stack - just.
106 - i think we should have state funding of political parties, however holding these views makes me feel as popular as a tory!
108 Carol. Indeed. The punters are so dischuffed with the new Scottish Prime Minister that he’s only 6-10% ahead in the polls.
What with that and Gordon arranging for Britains largest lottery win of £35M to be won by a Scot, perhaps England might think about being subsumed into Scotland.
I so look forward to seeing seanT and Nick Palmer in kilts !!
83
agree totally. The damage done by cash for honours and the duplicity over the EU referendum just drives more people away from the ballot box.
109 PtP. “Just” = this side of a profit !!
78 no I’m not nadine - it was more by way of a light hearted warning - but the idea of you being chased by a group of karate kicking bible-waving blonde women is fairly amusing and would make a good youtube vid.
113 And ‘just’ avoiding an appearance before The Disciplinary Committee!
I would be interested to know what people who contribute to this site think about where the current centre of gravety is in this country at this time.
If we took 1995 as a benchmark are we the same, more leftwing or more rightwing in political terms.
I think we are probably about the same overall. I should imagine public spending as % of GDP is still around 1% give or take where we were in 1995. Does this mean Labour have failed?
Certainly there has been a shift away from the spending patterns in terms of priorities with Defence spending being a further casuality. Maybe Labour have disguised this so well i cannot see it?
No one gives a crap about the EU treaty save Murdoch and the Daily Mail. Fact!!
If you are relying on this to get you some leverage into power, you’ll be waiting a long time my friends.
In economics, the same. Labour has accepted large parts of the Thatcherite settlement, but the Tories have had to accept the minimum wage for one.
Socially, we are a far more progressive country: civil parterships being just one example.
Mike you forgot to mention that Sir Tam Dalyell of the Binns is a baronet as well.
117. Probably agree with you there - EU will not get the Tories into government alone. If it did UKIP would have won. I would concede the EU would be part of a tory election platform and may pick some votes up for them but it is a intangebile mass issue. That is it is not bread and butter - you don’t directly see it for every pound you spend or earn. Whilst i know it can touch on some areas of most peoples lives it is too ingrained and interwoven.
Basically if the tories really wanted to make the EU an issue they would have to strategically intertwine Immigration from EU countries unchecked to underpin a critic of the governments housing, transport, employment and environmental policies. You may ask why employment and this goes against Crosslands posting yesterday, which i thank him for. Does Crossland not remember when in opposition Labour in 94-97 cited any increases as cynical tory opportunism (I actually think Labour were very effective in opposition - In contrast to Govt:lol:)? Of the 2.5 million jobs created by Labour 65% (approx) are filled by immigrants. A further 300,000 public sector jobs have been created to which “new” immigrants have certain restrictions.
This does not mean that job creation is as strong as some contend indeed much of the jobs could be related to the proceeds of immigration!!!
118. Yes you are right there on economics and socially we have become a far more tollerant society of some groups. Whereas collectively i think some groups are less accepted!
116. We are the same overall. Additionally perception of what is left and what is right has shifted somewhat. For example are Labour in real terms really a part of the left? The party may be but the Labour government? By any philosophical yardstick it isnt very much leftist at all in its actual policies save a number of high profile but largely non-fundamental issues.
106. As long as its their political party thats benefitting they don’t care, thats the great irony. The number of people on pb.com alone who seem to want to chop the legs of other parties by trying to legislate in such a way that their opponent’s funding is cut is a joke and just shows such people up as pretty undemocratic. Their party n(which they or may not actually be a member of) is more important than a well functioning democratic party based system.
Its pathetic.
The key to big donor funding, be it unions, businesses or wealthy individuals is simple, how much influence does it buy and how much should it buy, if any.
118 I think the general public acceptance of the minimum wage, tax credits and the change from the Tories “VAT on fuel” to winter fuel payments for the elderly, show that we’ve come some way on economic front too.
Not so much a leftward move, but definitely a move forward in a nicely measured incremental fashion. ;-). Easy to take things for granted. Long may it continue.
36.”I’m not sure about that. A lot of English folk in Scotland ‘go native’ and voting for the SNP is, well, like voting for any other social democratic party but with a caledonian tint. That’s probably expressed in a clumsy way but, put simple, I don’t think the English vote is necessarily an anti-independence block.”
StephenB, I agree with that especially up in your neck of the woods.
57.Jon, you saw that *take* on the Glasgow bombing as well!
110 - No to state funding either, I think there should be a cap on donations so there is no possibility of feeling beholden or of feeling that you are ‘owed’.
122. I would agree with some of what you say there. What i would say though is that an improvement a change in policy may bring at one time maybe only the foundation for a change in emphasis in the future.
A dialectic takes place in all things and revision of policies is always a good thing. Shame for Cameron is Labour portray is genuine reavaluation of the problems of this country as Flip Flopping. Where as Brown’s cynical excercise in changing government policies to “outflank” the tories is not deemed to be flip-flopping! Why?
119 Chris A. Tam Dalyell was also a cousin of Harry Trueman through the common ancestory of the 1st baronet.
The baronetage is one of Novia Scotia, being a money making venture of James VI of Scotland.
Cash for honours …. Tsscchhh. Modern politicians are amateurs !!
Stephen. In my opinion in Scotland you need to get the respect of the staff or they will run riot. They are used to absent and incompetent bosses. Only last week a major US owned plant was closed one month after it was told it was performing well and 500 staff sacked. Be wary of staff from the public sector as they will be better at politics than doing their job and teach your staff about customer service as it does not come naturally to them.
In terms of the thread - Salmon did seem to get eclipsed by Gordon when he became PM.
Personally i like Salmon as he is a very effective political operator - If i were them i would study what Salmon has done in Scotland and try to “graft” the stragey to some areas of government critic.
You have to look at it this way, Salmon has inflicted the first real defeat on Labour in a GE since Labour came to power in 1997. He must be doing something right no matter how marginal his victory is deemed to be. Salmon won in a Labour heartland, the tories should not forget this.
If i were the tories i would try and go for a pincer effect with the SNP. That is co-ordiante a strategy to defeat Labour UK wide. The SNP want a Tory victory at westminister as much as the tories!!! This of course will lead to Scottish Independence but i don’t think the UK can continue as it is now. A federation would be better as the UK is just becoming ungovernable.
Sir Peregrine Worsthorne endorses Brown and says that Cameron isn’t fit for office:
http://tinyurl.com/2bladt
‘If there were to be an election in the autumn, my guess is that Brown, proclaiming ’safety first’, would win it with a landslide. As an old Tory, I hate to admit this, but as a patriotic subject one can do nothing else.’
93-95, thanks for putting me right re the boundary change info.
PA reports:
Former Scottish First Minister Jack McConnell is to become the next British High Commissioner to Malawi, it was announced today.
Prime Minister Gordon Brown made the announcement, just hours after his Labour colleague had stepped down as leader of the party in the Scottish Parliament.
Mr McConnell will continue serve as MSP for Motherwell and Wishaw while the current High Commissioner, Richard Wildash, completes his posting, scheduled to end in 2009.
The President of Malawi also welcomed the proposal.
“I’ve received a very kind offer from the Prime Minister to have a role in the future in Malawi that would be very special,” Mr McConnell told BBC Scotland today.
“I’m delighted to accept that opportunity.
“I’m sure in addition to representing the UK government there, it would be a real opportunity to further enhance the relationship between Scotland and Malawi and to support those thousands of Scots that are now involved in partnerships with Malawian organisations and people from Malawi on the ground.”
Mr McConnell was deposed as First Minister after Labour’s defeat to the SNP at the Scottish elections in May.
129 Montague B-F. Lordy … things have gotten out of hand if old Perry is ramping our Gawd !!
Not much intelligent discussion of the topic today!
A couple of points worth thinking about:
1. Very clever timing of Salmond to go for the Independence debate when Scottish Labour are at their weakest. It’s had an effect: Joke McC has finally been made (or made himself) to do the decent thing so the party can try rebuilding itself from the wreck. But they are very vulnerable. Wendy is a potential disaster area, but probably the best bet. But it was Joke who wrecked the party by getting rid of anyone from his cabinet who might challenge him.
2. Annabel Goldie’s move has been crucial on the referendum question, as she is the only competent opposition leader at the moment. If she hadn’t moved Alex would have had it all his own way, but she’s contained it. Normally she very Salmond-friendly. This is real principle on her part, and good for her (and remember, the Scottish Tories owe Cameron nothing).
3. The Scottish Six would be great. Broadcasting in Scotland has been hugely run down since the 70s- studios closed, producers made redundant. As a result, our reporting is in a woeful state- nothing but murders and football. We desperately need to improve the quality of our national n