Could Cameron’s primary plan be used to stop Boris?
August 16th, 2007-
Will Labour supporters mess up the Tory election?
In what could appear an ill-thought out move during the brash days of Cameron’s leadership the Tories decided that their choice for London mayor should be decided by an open primary in which any London voter could take part.
But what sounded like a PR stunt could now be used against the party by its opponents to stop Boris getting on the ballot.
For there are reports that Labour supporters are attempting to block the bid by mobilising an anti-Boris move in this election. If they are successful then Cameron’s personal choice for London would be blocked.
Already websites are being set up with that objective.
The Tories are saying that safeguards are in place to prevent the primary being undermined in this way. Quite how they will do this is not clear.
Johnson is one of four candidates hoping to win the Tory nomination.
London Mayoral betting prices are here.
Mike Smithson
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Presumably, the outcome of the primary would have to be ratified - or not - by members. There’ve been a couple of constituency selections, where primaries have been packed by supporters of one of the candidates, only to have the result overturned by members.
Better to increase interest in your candidate methinks. Doesn’t seem like a daft strategy at all if the tories actually have to mobilise to protect their own candidate. Why this is getting such a bad press- I mean its not like they’re actually going to manage to block Boris are they? - I do not understand.
We’ve been assured by Labour supporters on PBC that Boris Johnson would be a disaster as candidate. So, why do Labour supporters want to block his nomination?
at £1.50 a vote the Conservative Party could well benefit financially from Labour and Lib Dem voters flocking to stop Boris. Plus it could be spun and increase publicity on the Party’s inclusive and open democracy as against Gordon’s enthronement.
Shame that its a secret ballot - otherwise every elected official in the other parties who took part could be referred to as, for example, “Tory donor and Labour MP..”
I’d vote for Boris! Not only will he lose the election for London mayor heavily but I’d expect him to do to Cameron and the Conservatives what Tony Lit did in Southall-but rather more so!
4. Ah secret ballot but can they publish a list of names that actually voted (but not who they voted for).
Potential for embarrassing non-Con activists etc then
5. It’ll cost you £1.50 though - does your politics of envy stretch to that sum ?
5. It’ll cost you £1.50 though - does your politics of envy stretch to that sum ?
This might backfire on Labour and Ken Livingston big time if it is seen as a blatant and cynical attempt to push the only real contender who seems to worry them out of the race by underhand means.
There already seems to be an organised smear campaign in process against Boris, I would remind them what happened when labour tried this against Alex Salmond and the Nats during the Scottish election campaign. As the incumbent administration I think it backfired and cost them valuable votes and doesn’t Ken Livingston need non Labour supporters 2nd preference vote as well?
I expect the Tories to solve it the same way they solve all their “democratic” issues - change the rules and impose a solution.
I feel quite sorry for them. Labour seem to have done away with the possibility of propoer elections in their own party they want to have a ‘wee shot’ in the Conservative ballots. Bless
‘We’ve been assured by Labour supporters on PBC that Boris Johnson would be a disaster as candidate. So, why do Labour supporters want to block his nomination?’
My sentiments exactly.
8. I could always sit with a bowl outside Whites!
13.No use, its the back door of Labour’s HQ you need to picket to make sure the right *democratic* decision is made.
I rang them up this afternoon and asked the following:
“If I applied for a vote, would you be able to tell if I was genuine or not?” Answer: “Yes, as we ask for a postcode, then the name of the house, then the name of the occupier”
“Is it possible to register for a vote at a London address, but have the vote forwarded to an address outside the capital?”. Answer: “Pass”
Make of that what you will
£1.50 per vote… what price democracy!
9. ” I would remind them what happened when labour tried this against Alex Salmond ”
what smear story against Salmond were used? My memory is becoming too short term…
Bizarre. I’d be tempted to vote FOR Boris for the reasons we’ve discussed, if it didn’t involve (a) deception and (b) £1.50 to Tory coffers. I suspect a double-bluff from Tories stirring up interest - is there actually an identifiably Labour person who is known to be involved?
Speaking of deception, there’s a post on the Broxtowe area of Anthony Well’s site from someone who, writing apparently seriously, says someone has left £100K+ to Broxtowe Tory party - he seems pleased but it’s a low-key post that doesn’t seem intended to stir much reaction. The snag is that it’s false (officially denied by the Tory constituency chair) and Anthony tells me the guy regularly posts under different aliases. Usually one can spot trolls by their outrageous comments, but why would someone want to make mildly interesting, yet false, statements?
re 18. I deal with legacies a lot and it’s highly possible for a will to have gone through probate with this bequest in in but for the beneficiary, the local party, not to have been told yet. Generally executors have twelve months to wind up an estate and often they do not communicate with beneficiaries until they are able to send a cheque.
Interesting by election at Portsmouth Fratton today.
May this year only 300 between Lib Dem and the Conservatives.
Considering it is a Lib Dem, Labour run administration it might be thought the Conservatives could possibly gain.
See how the two parties fare. Labour were a long way behind.
If true, it sounds incredibly childish. Or am I just being stuffy?
20. Interesting byelection in Scotland too.
First preferences last May:
Con 1503
SNP 1431
Lab 1144
LD1 671
LD2 529
SSP 153
1 Con, 1 SNP, 1 Lab elected. Con seat up this time
LD1+LD2 is 1,200 putting LD potential at around 1,200.
The order candidates are excluded can be crucial. Candidates today are Con, SNP, Lab, LD, Ind and Solidarity.
If Solidary and Ind go first, who will be excluded at that stage is very important. If Lab goes out and its second preferences go to LDs, LD would have a quite good chance to win it at that point if Lab second preferences put them above SNP and SNP second prefernece broke in LD favour agains the Tories.
21.”If true, it sounds incredibly childish. Or am I just being stuffy?”
No, it’s not only you
23 Thought so.
Andrea,
where was the thread Jack W talked about where you detailed the Lab seats that were in danger from the SNP in a GE?
The mayoral election is no longer dull. That’s all down to one very undull candidate. Good luck to him i say.
17.Andrea, my mistake I should added *negative campaigning* into that sentence. Labour ran a very negative campaign up here against Salmond and the SNP, it backfired.
McAndrea. I notice you are becoming interested in Scottish politics. There’s a large Italian community in Glasgow. The story goes that Italians bound for Chicago got off at Glasgow not realizing they were several thousand miles short!
27. *have*, wrote both posts in a hurry!
Labour and in particular Ken Livingstone seem to have short memories, surprised no one has mentioned just how badly Labour’s “anyone but Ken” campaign backfired?
20 Think you are looking at the wrong figures , Dave , Fratton is the safest LibDem seat in Portsmouth , May result was LibDem 1391 Con 571 Lab 310 E
31 Ooopps EngDem 212 . More interesting if Labour can get into 2nd place where they were until 2003 .
27. Two undull candidates, to be fair. Livingstone looked set to walk it - again - before Boris entered the fray.
Now I know that a number of Labour supporters think Ken will walk it against Boris anyway but I wouldn’t bee too sure of that. Boris might have played the buffoon a little too much but as well as the obvious downside, that’s given him at least three advantages: publicity, recognition and freedom.
Boris is already one of the most recognisable politicians in the country and the media search him out. His image is also to some extent a shield behind which he can make comments that other politicians might not be able to get away with. The thing is, I rather think that some of the things he’s said chime better outside the Westminster village than within it. The question is to what extent that will matter.
For the London Tories to select Boris would obviously mean taking a big risk, but nowhere near as big as Labour trying to stop him in the primaries (which is one reason why I don’t expect them to try, the other being that they’ll probably think they can win fair and square anyway).
Mind you, if there’s a general election next May, the whole contest will be overshadowed by the national picture which would probably play into Livingstone’s hands - Boris needs the publicity more than he does.
27. yes, Chris I agree it was mainly a negative campaign (why not to vote for SNP and not why you should vote for Lab). I’m not so sure it backfired. I think its result was pretty much neutral even if it would have deserved to backfire more.
25. Sara, I can’t recall which thread in particular, but I listed Lab seats with SNP in second place. Ochil & South Pertshire is the easiest one to go. After that the next most marginal seat on 2005 results is Dundee West (14.6% majority). The Lab majority is not exactly very slim (like in Ochil) but SNP did well in Dundee last May. After DW there’s Des Brown’ seat with a 19% majority. SNP did well in 2005 GE (compared to their 2005 general performance) and they also gained the Holyrood seat. However Westminster boundaries are better for Lab in that seat and using that boundaries last May it would have probably been a re-count situation. After those 3 seats, there’s Linlithgow & Falkirk East with a Lab majority of 24% (SNP didn’t do well in Linglithgow last May).
If you just look at the distance between Lab and SNP, in Aberdeen North SNP is 20.2% away from Lab, but LDs are in second place (1.6% ahead of SNP).
Finally Livingstone had a 29% majority in 2005 GE reduced to 9% in the byelection.
It wasn’t a firm judgement of what seats are at risk..but a way to open a debate about it. Others (for ex Blue Moon) joined it making up their considerations. So your opinion is welcome on which seats you consider at risk!
28.”McAndrea. I notice you are becoming interested in Scottish politics”
it’s probably becoming my new obsession
“We’ve been assured by Labour supporters on PBC that Boris Johnson would be a disaster as candidate. So, why do Labour supporters want to block his nomination?”
To be fair, I think the more common view is that he would be a disaster as Mayor rather than as a candidate.
But that being said, I think the idea that Labour supporters would want to disrupt a welcome innovation (following on from the laudable “open primaries” for Parliamentary candidates) for our democracy, to “embarrass” Cameron and the Conservatives as just totally Sad, in all meanings of the word.
34.”After DW there’s Des Brown’ seat with a 19% majority. SNP did well in 2005 GE (compared to their 2005 general performance) and they also gained the Holyrood seat. However Westminster boundaries are better for Lab in that seat and using that boundaries last May it would have probably been a re-count situation.”
That might be an interesting one for the SNP bearing in mind Des Browne’s dual role at Defence and Scottish minister?
Is there a market on who the Tory mayoral candidate might be ?
re 38. Yes - Betfair have a market. Boris is currently at 0.08/1.
At 18, Nick Palmer wrote, “why would someone want to make mildly interesting, yet false, statements?”
It’s called Spin, Nick.
“Plot to sabotage Boris mayor bid”
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/6949619.stm
37. yes, I thought that if Browne is not a caring constituency MP because of his ministerial role keep him away too much, he can risk something. However I don’t know how much present he is on the ground
Don’t know what kind of constituency MP he is but he has Defence and the Scottish jobs, both of which could put him on a collision course with the SNP at Holyrood.
One thing to keep in mind re Scotland is that any swing from Lab to SNP will not just effect Lab seats where SNP are second. Any shift in support in that direction makes life easier for any party running 2nd to Labour in a marginal. In several seats in the 2005 GE the Tories benefited from 3rd place Lib Dems siphoning off Lab votes.
I would have thought Labour would be hoping that Boris does become the candidate, Boris=Disaster.
44.”Any shift in support in that direction makes life easier for any party running 2nd to Labour in a marginal”
In the semi-marginals it could have the opposite effect too. For ex take a seat like Glasgow North, Lab maj of 12% over LD…if 6% swing from Lab to LD, Lab lose the seat…but if the swing is to SNP, Lab can hold cause the votes go from first to third placed party.
The tories held some seats against the LDs in 1997 because voters directly went from Con to Lab bypassing second placed LDs.
What sort of turnout are the Tories expecting for their open primary? Does anyone think it will exceed 1% of the London electorate?
3 and 12. It is precisely because they think that Boris would be a bad candidate that the Labour party would want to stop him. There is always the possibility that the one’s opponent may win, in which cased one would hope that he/she is a good and competent candidate. One should not try to win an election by gambling on having a bad opponent.
48 - nice try.
It has to be Boris and Ken - otherwise it will be so dull!
As to the story, the “open primary” could be the equivalent to a weighted poll, counting for X% or something in terms of selection. However if something suspicious happened it could be redone or cancelled in favour of members-only ballots.
49. What does “nice try” mean?
I was making a valid point about elections generally, not about Boris or anybody else in particular. If you have misunderstood me, I will make the point again in different words:
In there is an election in a marginal constituency between Party A and Party B, the supporters of Party A should hope that the candidate selected for Party B will be a good and competent person, in case Party B wins the election. They should not hope that Party B will select an incompetent offensive idiot, in the hope that it would cause Party B to lose the election (because there is always the danger than Party B will win the election anyway, in spite of the efforts of Party A). The supporters of Party A will meanwhile try to win the election in any case.
If, however, you did not misunderstand my point, what did you mean by “nice try”? Please explain. (I would like to know if I am being accused of something).
By “nice try” i mean exactly what i said. That you offer a perfectly benign and logical explanation for what some of these people connected to Labour are trying to do by preventing Johnson getting on the ballot paper, which i fear has little basis in reality.
If you want examples of your cast iron logic having a varied basis in reality then i’m sure some could be provided.
In general your argument would be one probably subscribed to by Labour leaning floating voters. You would struggle to find a Labour tribalist who truly believes that it is better to have a credible opponent with a strong chance of winning, to a joke one with lesser (but still theoretically significant) chances.
Sounds like the sort of Machiavellian plot that would be dreamt up by student activists barely out of the sixth form.
That said, the open primary sounds equally jejune. No doubt someone who went to a good school thought it would be a way of getting some free publicity for the Tory contender but it may backfire now the most famous MP in the country is standing.
52.53.54. As I said, I wasn’t making a point about the Labour Party or about Boris Johnson; I was making a general point about parties and elections generally.
27 Do labour have any positive campaigning? I’ve yet to see any. The whole raison d’etre of the left is to be against things.
56 - Well fair enough. But, general point or otherwise, you clearly argued that it applied to the specific case of the Labour Party’s attitude to Boris Johnson.
55 - They have open primaries in the US all the time. You don’t hear complaints about them there. Just because it’s an experiment outwith our usual political culture, doesn’t mean that it isn’t an experiment that shouldn’t be widely supported. And not sabotaged by silly games by opponents. After all the Mayoralty itself is something of a UK political cultural anomaly,
The only people who should be allowed to choose the Conservative candidate, should be fully payed up members of the Conservative Party. Hopefully they will choose a sensible candidate. Surely the last thing the Conservative Party needs is another Jeffrey Archer debacle.
I agree with alex on this - I think it’s a daft idea and embarrassing that the New Statesman is behind it. And while I respect John Loony’s idealistic position, I will openly admit that I hope Boris will be the candidate becuase I expect him to lose the election. The case for it is that I think that any of the Tory candidates is likely to be a less good mayor for London than Ken, so I should prefer they chose whoever is least likely to win.
I’m only partly saying that because Ken is Labour - I’m in Labour four days a week for much of the year, and think he has made quite a lot of what could have been almost a non-job.
Bit dubious about this article - the reaction of most Labour people is “wot, give £1.50 to the Tories, I’d rather stick pins in my eyes!”. Cheaper to wait and vote against Boris in the real mayoral election
O/T read the last thread and was filled with anxiety for Test regarding purchasing Florida property this year. Test, be careful. People get injured trying to catch falling knives. Best to wait till they’ve stopped falling and things start to rise gently again. I know you say you have experience of property investing, but my guess is that this is UK property. But property is always local, so you can’t extrapolate experience from home to foreign countries.
The main thing to keep in mind about the US situation is that for the 50 years up to 2003 they mainly took out 30 year fixed rate mortgages, and post 2003 they experimented with adjustable rate mortgages. The problems they are seeing are mainly down to lack of experience on the parts of the state regulators, lenders and borrowers about how to handle adjustable rate mortgages.
Also note that Florida is in a hurricane zone. I think the US govt provides hurricane insurance to uS citizens, so your house gets rebuilt courtesy of Uncle Sam (which is why you see so much moral hazard building in hurricane zones) - but I’m not sure this insurance extends to foreigners who buy - check this out before you proceed. You don’t want to end up being unable to get insurance and your dream home smashed to pieces by the weather. If you simply want a holiday place in the sun, you might be better off sticking to southern france or italy. The Med is a sweet calm pond compared to the Gulf of Mexico.
snowflake5 @ 62 (but OT) — are you aware that the link in your name links back here to pb.com rather than your own blog?
63. John L thanks - it’s late, I typed in the wrong URL on autopilot! Have amended now.
Sounds like a good silly season story to me - the scale of the organisation that would be needed for something like this to have any real impact is probably beyond a few bloggers - unless Labour decide to openly try to stop Boris I can’t see it happening and Boris will walk the selection.
And Nick @ 61: ‘I’m in Labour four days a week for much of the year’
lol that either sounds very painful or that your political bias is shifting incredibly quickly!
61 - NickP - “I’m in Labour four days a week for much of the year”
So many possible jokes I don’t know where to start!
RE: SCOTLAND
#22 Andrea - you are a national treasure . . . for whatever nation you wish!
Doesn’t SNP have a good shot in the by-election?
#46 -this is key point, that in three-way & four-way marginals, a Salmond surge won’t necessarily cost them as many seats as you might otherwise think.
That’s me hung by my own petard in the last thread.
Just watched a repeat of a fascinating interview given by John Major back in April, if it comes on again on BBC Parliament I recommend it.
According to Major and despite popular myth, Mrs Thatcher did support going into the ERM because she was desperate to slay inflation and was worried about interests rates/mortgages.
He also said that he wrote his resignation letter after we crashed out of the ERM, and he is still not sure that he was correct to stay on.
A lot of fascinating snippets which I think still resonate with present day politics.
RE: “VOTE TORY, DEFEAT BORIS”
When you open yer primary, ye takes yer chances.
Malicious crossover voting is a dumb strategy for reasons covered above. In WA state we used to have a “blanket” primary which was a VERY open, and crossovers were common; voters loved the freedom of choice to pick and chose among the candidates regardless of party. Now WA uses an open primary where voters can chose either a Dem or Rep ballot (or neither and just vote on nonpartisan offices & ballot measures) but they can NOT crossover BETWEEN the parties in the same election.
Under blanket system, crossover voting in the primary was common but rarely malicious; even rarer for rouge crossovers to make a difference. Under new system, voters can pick either party’s ballot in the primary, which means that choice between Dem or Rep ballot is driven by individual partisanship AND what’s the shape of the primary race at the top of the ticket (with a more exciting race drawing more voters). Again, malicious crossovers are miniscule.
51 & 61 both make good points, but 61’s are better. Best of all is to tend yer own garden, and let the opposition do the same. Then let the people judge who’s grown the best o’ show.
I do NOT wish Mr. Johnson well, as a politician this is. BUT if I was in his camp, then I’d think setting up some “Vote Tory - Defeat Boris” website would have to be reported as a definite campaign contribution to BJ.
#68 Have always thought John Major is a classy guy, though doubt he’d ever have got my vote. During the 1st Iraq War debate in House of Commons in Feb 2003 was up in the gallery when he was ushered to a seat in the gallery on the front row. Definitely has a personal magnetism, and he wasn’t trying to impress. Just sat down and watched the debate for several hours like the rest us concerned for the fate of our turbulent planet.
5 Tusk, tusk. Talking your book Roger !?
Tony Lit’s share of the vote went up (marginally) if my memory serves me correctly…
34: Thanks, Andrea. I haven’t looked closely at the figures myself, but that confirms my general sense, that rumours of Labour Westminster seats vulnerable to the SNP are greatly exaggerated. The problem is that the SNP are starting from a very low base, as the Lib Dems did so well in Scotland in 2005, and the SNP saved all their money for Holyrood (wisely, as the event proved). So though I’d imagine some seats are vulnerable (certainly Dundee West), the vulnerability is not nearly as great as the recent poll might suggest. The Lib Dems and SNP may cancel each other out in many seats, as both try to present themselves as the natural alternative to Labour.
(I’ll try and repost this somewhere in a rather more live thread! Or could Mike maybe consider a weekly guest ‘Scottish thread’, like Sean Fear’s local election thread?)