Is Gord’s media honeymoon coming to an end?
August 16th, 2007
Why was the Beeb so quick to apologise?
Having spent ten years in my early career as an editor with BBC News it strikes me that the quick apology that has been made for parts of the corporation’s coverage of the Tory competition proposals is something of a watershed and might suggest that Brown’s media honeymoon might be running out of steam.
The BBC does not usually react so quickly - especially when the initial source of the complaint was a blog, in this case Iain Dale’s - that even the partial apology is quite a step. Dale’s argument started to gain force when the Sun took it up stating “the caustic bulletins could have been scripted by Labour ministers”. Ouch! That sort of comment in the UK’s top selling paper sends BBC bosses, who pride themselves on their impartiality, into a tizzy. Desk editors like I was will quickly get the message.
For the narrative of the six to seven weeks has been almost totally about how well Gord has been doing and, in Michael White’s phrase in the Guardian yesterday “kicking Cameron”. The BBC’s weekend coverage of the John Redwood plans certainly fitted into that pattern.
This is what White wrote: “It was bound to happen. By mid-August, the media realise that they have been nice to a new prime minister for a whole six weeks and decide they’re fed up with kicking David Cameron to bits. Suddenly Gordon Brown is no longer the modest, hands-on crisis manager he was a week ago, but a fretful workaholic who can’t even take a few days off, for heaven’s sake.”
On Tuesday I highlighted the Guardian’s coverage of Brown’s 39 billion pound’s worth of expenditure announcements which did not seem very helpful to the government.
All of this could have an impact if Brown is considering an October election. The media is fickle and the narrative can turn very quickly. The question is what is the impact on public opinion? Could we start to see an easing of Labour’s polling margin in the coming weeks and, if so, could that add to the risk of a 2007 election?
For weeks I’ve been convinced that he will not dare to go this year and these latest moves reinforce that.
Betfair currently have 5.2/1 against a 2007 general election.
Mike Smithson
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nah, i think the reason why the telegraph mail and express (the bastions of imparticality) realise that the bbc admitting that it was a bit unecessary to include the famous 1993 incident, plays into their the bbc sre sll s bunch of pink lefties etc etc.
I also saw that while the bbc admitted on a blog that maybe it was unecessary to include that footage they took iain dale apart for his comments on how the opening lines were something like;
“labour have attacked tory polices”
The bbc coppied about 10 different openings from all their news programmes, and well dale was miles off. now thats an ouch!!
Still he ain’t as bad as guido - possibly one of the worst blogs there is.
p,s i do realise that the mail express and telegraph are owned priveatly and therefore entitled to have opinions in the way the bbc is not.
Right-of-centre bloggers are more numerous and better organised than left-of-centre ones. They will undoubtedly use this tactic over and again in coming years, and the Beeb’s dumbing down of news - some of the (non-political) stories on its website are an absolute disgrace in news terms, full of “a member of the public claimed…” etc - lays itself wide open.
re 1 & 2. For the BBC to apologise for anything other than a factual error is remarkable. On the introductions they did not dispute that they had presented the story in the way they did - but they just quoted other bulletins where this had not occurred. It’s like being caught for speeding and your defence is that during other parts of the journey you were actually within the speed limit.
This is a standard BBC apology technique which we were using in my days there.
The main point I am making is that the BBC will be a little less ready to be unbalanced in future coverage, at least for a short while.
On the early election, I’m beginning to feel like the mad ships captain, (played by Tom Baker) who when asked by Blackadder, where the crew was? replied’ ‘There be two schools of thought on crews, there be those who think yer don’t need them, there be those who think you do’ Blackadder then asks, ‘Whose in the first school’ ‘Me’ says Baker, ‘And the second’ ‘Everybody else’ comes back the reply.
Despite that I’m sticking to October, on the question of the honeymoon, so called, I prefer to think it as a return to normal voting intention, after TB and Iraq stopped offending a large slice of left/liberal voters. I’ve seen no polling evidence, to support White’s contention, yet! perhaps you have?
On the BBC, the BBC under its charter, has a duty to be politically impartial, the national press is overwhelmingly partisan, although not as much as it once was. The BBC despite the rantings of the ususal suspects, is broadly non-partisan, the left moaned about it back in the 70/80’s now its the rights turn.
Redwood, will perform the role for Labour, that Tony Benn performed for the Conservatives back in the 80’s, someone you scare the voters with.Redwood comes across as a Jasper Cruelheart type figure, you can imagine him throwing, widows and orphans into the snow, because they can’t pay the rent. As for his singing of the Welsh national anthem, you’d have to be made of stone, not to p**s yourself laughing everytime you see it!
“The BBC wrong for mocking Redwood?” How can it ever be wrong to mock Redwood? Everyone mocks him!
No one over 12 can have forgotten that sublime picture in ‘95 when infront of twenty five misfits who would have looked over the top as extras in ‘Pirates of the Carribean’ he tried to oust his own leader!
No one (except for Thatcher) deserves more credit for Labour’s run of success. He should to be top of Blair’s resignation honours list with at least a dukedom!
OT. What do Rod Stewart Elton John Lord Goldsmith and Jack Nicholson have in common?
Unless the BBC abandons thought control - the John Birt narrative system where they download the story and then ensure that the BBC narrative is transmitted and the interviewed person is fitted in around that, apologising is a waste of time. They have their John Redwood narrative and that’s all they want to put out.
The fact that Redwood has some interesting policy proposals is clearly not of interest to the BBC. It might be of interst to their viewers and listeners, some of who might even be capable of forming their own judgements. The BBC is insulting their intelligence.
re 6. Yes - that picture was a classic.
One thing I think will happen today is that Redwood will get a much easier ride from the BBC when his proposals are actually announced.
In fact if the Tory PR machine is sharp, and there is no evidence that it is, you might conclude that the whole week has been designed to draw out the criticism first and then for the actual report to have the rebuttals ready.
I think this is a misreading of the situation presently at the Beeb.
The recent Blue Peter competition fiasco and savage Ofcom critisism together with new guidlines from the top has led to a nervousness amomgst producers about complaints.
A more robust attitude from the DG would have told Redwood to piss off, take his medicine and arrange some singing lessons !!
Politicians and the tabloids would die for the positve ratings currently enjoyed by Auntie … IIRC presently running at 88% !!!!
As for the Brown honeymoon …. well, eventually the fickle wife in the press will get a headache. Not tonight Gordon.
It was a very odd way for the BBC to report the story. They led on Labour’s attacks on the policy, not what the Conservatives are saying.
It would be absolutely legitimate for the BBC to decide that an opposition party’s policies are not newsworthy enough to lead the bulletins. But it’s pretty bizarre to lead on the attacks unless there’s something particularly noteworthy about the attacks (such as all the other parties attacking them).
Following Jack W, I just think people are very sensitive at the Beeb at present, especially where matters of ordering and editing items in a broadcast piece are concerned. You only have to listen to the discussions on the news analysis feature they do on Saturday’s Breakfast to hear how these sensitivities are usually reflected by news editors and producers. Would that newspapers were more careful with how their headlines and their pieces were put together!!
10 Rob. That depends purely on timing. With rolling news channels and miriads of reporters an announcement of a new policy will lead for as long as it takes other parties and news hounds to get a different angle. And any media savvy political party will have its rebuttal unit ready for any important announcements by their opponents.
Put simply, it’s the febrile news media age we live in.
By giving prominence to Michael White’s comment the other day I think you are pulling our legs a bit, Mike.
You repeat his faux-serious intro, but it was actually a witty piece about politicians’ holiday arrangements, starting with Gordon Brown, but also about Margaret Thatcher, Tony Blair and others - it ends with a hilarious punch line about Helmut Kohl and a cakeshop which got Mrs Spaulding and me both laughing.
See: http://www.guardian.co.uk/g2/story/0,,2148797,00.html
More Rewoodiana - what about his gaffe in March this year when he claimed global warming would be good for tourism and sport? Redders, later slapped down by an embarrassed Dave, said he was “sceptical” about scientific evidence about global warming. Pointing to a string of advantages, he wrote: “We will benefit from the better weather for tourism, agriculture and outdoor sports. Fewer people will die of the cold and from snow and ice in the winter.”
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/pages/live/articles/news/news.html?in_article_id=441736&in_page_id=1770
Meanwhile …. The “Torygraph” reports that a “senior Tory” has been accused of smearing Met Chief Sir Iain Blair. Red Ken steps in to defends the top rozzer.
What a topsy-turvy political world we live in !!
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2007/08/16/nblair116.xml
10: The usual BBC system is to alternate between proposals and attacks on them in successive bulletins, so unless you were listening continuously during the day you may not have heard both versions. They feel it’s more interesting for regular listeners.
It was objectively ‘brave’ (in the Yes Minister sense) of Cameron to get Redwood to make a major policy statement anyway, and Redwood has clearly been pushing it as far as he can - he had a letter in the Guardian yesterday which they accurately captioned “Listen to me, not Polly Toynbee”, in which he urged DC to adopt his ideas.
Leaving aside the merits of the proposals, the possible outcomes in public opinion range from “The Tories have some interesting ideas which make me think better of them” (which, to be fair, IDS’s report largely achieved) to “The Tories are extreme again and squabbling as well”. I think that they have an uphill struggle with these particular ideas (cf the immediate reaction of Alex, by no means a left-wing poster here), and I suspect that DC will cherry-pick. His difficulty is that if he does it discreetly then the public will think he’s bought the ‘extreme’ bits and if he does it publicly the Telegraph etc. will bite his ankles.
Somewhat off thread, but the Daily Mash’s take on Dianamania is worth a look.
http://tinyurl.com/2jvuzz
Meanwhile II …. Sarah Vine in “The Times” on the value of political wives :
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/columnists/article2265498.ece
Did anyone else spot another BBC apology yesterday, at the foot of their online Jack McConnell resignation story? It said something like “an earlier edition of this story claimed that 10 Downing St’s press release had mis-spelt McConnell’s surname. We would like to make clear that this was not the case and that it was an internal BBC error, not an error by Downing St”. The actual apology has strangely disappeared from the BBC News Scotland website… Mmmmmm…
And for UK GE date pundits, how about this from today’s Scotsman:
“Senior Scottish Labour figures have urged Gordon Brown not to risk a general election this year, warning the Prime Minister he may lose vital seats… with Labour trailing the SNP in Scottish polls, some fear an early election could cost Labour Scottish seats.”
http://news.scotsman.com/politics.cfm?id=1293872007
OT- FTSE down *again*. -125 (2%), fallen below 6000 mark
18 Stuart. We looked at potential Scottish Labour losses to the SNP earlier in the week. And Andrea announced no more than 3 vunerable seats to the SNP. So it must be correct !!
Go for it Gordon !!!
18. “And Andrea announced no more than 3 vunerable seats to the SNP. So it must be correct !!”
wait, wait, I demand an apology first! Then I didn’t exactly said it…I presented the stats and everyone can make his/her own mind on how many seats are vulnerable
The Campaign for Socialism (the Holyrood version of Campaign Group) will soon meet to decide if they will challenge Wendy. If they do, they need 6 nominations among MSPs
Stuart.
You didn’t quote the entire piece. Nigel Griffiths advised GB to go for it. I doubt George Foulkes will influence anyone. He’s very much yesterday’s man.
21 Andrea. Don’t be coy .. oh Oracle of Milan !!
21 I doubt that they can get 6 nominations.
24. I don’t even know who their members are. Certainly Eleine Smith. I think there’s a regional MSP. But who are the others?
Andrea. Come off it. You expressed serious doubts about Kilmarnock, never mind the ones further down the list!
A special plea. One thing that ought to be taken into account when Gord decides the election date is that October 2007 would be very inconvenient for me personally.
26. “Andrea. Come off it. You expressed serious doubts about Kilmarnock”
I think I just said I wasn’t even sure if they would have won it last May using Westminster boundaries for Holyrood. They would have probably needed a recount. IMO if they had fought a GE last May, Lab would have held on.
Now it seems I’m the only one expressing doubts!! Then I will have everyone getting me out if there’s a GE in October and they lose more than 2 seats to SNP!
Marlyn Glen is also a member. Cathie Peattie is mentioned on their site - http://www.thecitizen.org.uk/
When was the last election held in the autumn ?? 70s ?
29. Thanks. Meryln Glen was the regional MSP I referred to earlier. Thanks for Cathie Peattie
Confidently expect following story to follow on pb.com.
“Bedford Cat run over - does this mean that Gordon’s honeymoon is coming to an end?”
It is stretching things rather a lot to say that this story has anything to do with Gordon. No doubt Gordon’s honeymoon will end soon enough, be patient your time will come Mike.
To great fanfare ‘Dave’ instigates a serious policy review led by various eye-catching ‘experts’.
Thus the ex head of MI5 reviews security, IDS social breakdown, Kenneth Clarke the constitution, Zac Goldsmith the environment John Redwood taxation etc.
Then instead of these ‘commissions’ reporting to the party and leader they instead are told to report direct to the media.
So bizarre was this exercise that John Redwood even sent a pleading letter to the Guardian lest his message be misinterpreted by his leader presumably reading it for the first time over his cornflakes?
How could the BBC not send this up? They havent had a comedy like this since Dad’s Army!
Bloody hell Mike I think we’d noticed that. We’re not blind!
[30] October 1974 - and that was a minority government. Before that, October 1964 - the government lost.
‘BBC bosses, who pride themselves on their impartiality’
Yeah, course they do. Ha ha.
35. Surely should be factored into betting then - hardly a ringing endorsement for 2007 ?
I suspect what the Redwood apology shows is that some Conservative supporters were reading Alastair Campbell’s diaries on the plane home from Rwanda.
I can’t see a 2007 election simply because the main reason in its favour is to gain a new mandate, though as a Labour historian surely Brown believes the existing mandate belongs to the party rather than to its former leader, no matter how presidential some Blairites thought him.
33. I think Redwood was pleading for the men in white coats to take Polly away in his letter…
According to The Daily Record, Wendy already has the pledge of support of 30 MSPs. Tom McCabe (MSP for Hamilton South) will be her campaign manager
Roger, I have to admit that I did laugh at the footage of John Redwood’s leadership bid, particularly the sight of Tony Marlow in his striped blazer glaring manically at the camera.
When you say that Labour should thank Thatcher, you’re right. She forced Labour to abandon socialism.
10.
The BBC did not lead on the Labour attacks. That happened for an hour after John Hutton appeared on News 24. Frankly, Redwood was shooting at an open goal on Sunday morning because there was no other story about. It was good news management by the Tories to come up with something on a quiet August Sunday.
If the BBC led on a Labour initiative and at some point didn’t top off on a Tory line slagging it off, the BBC would be accused of bias.
By the way did anyone notice how Redwood had softened his voice?
Is Bill Butler a member of the Campaign for Socialism? He might make a decent candidate.
41. Yes Sean Fear. The striped blazer was wonderful. He looked like an ice cream salesman and the whole bunch of them looked like a scene out of One Flew Over The Cuckoo’s Nest.
43. Andrew Chamberlain, it seems he is. Today’s Scotsman said that Campaign for Socialism has 5 MSPs and they mention Butler as the one who can potentially try and stand
Cathy Jamieson is caretaker leader and she will probably face Salmond at First Minister questions until the new leader is confirmed
I think Mike is on to something here. The kicking Cameron got for going to Rwanda was a tad cynical IMHO and the media all quite happily put the boot in. That the beeb put footage of Redwood failing to sing the Welsh National anthem up seems pretty juvenile and is playing the man not the ball. I can see the battle in the media between Lab and Tories hotting up by October you will be able to feel the tension.
what about Malcolm Chisholm? Government experience with some soft left credentials (ex Trident rebellion)
44. Mock them all you like but Redwood’s analysis in 1995 was right, wasn’t it? ‘No change, no chance’. It doesn’t say much for the ’sensible mainstream’ of the Tories that only an eccentric fringe in their party realised what a catastrophe they were facing at the GE.
48. Of course, even if “No change, no chance” is correct, “Change, chance” doesn’t logically follow.
48 A valid point. I for one, couldn’t believe it when Michael Hesseltine went round predicting a majority of 60. Unfortunately, I don’t think John Redwood would have done any better in 1997 than John Major did.
scots pine. The only thing wrong with Redwood’s slogan were the first two words. Changing to him would hardly have led to a political recovery.
48 Indeed, despite all is alleged “weirdness” and other foibles, at least Redwood - unlike others in his party - had the integrity/guts to voice his criticism in public when the time came.
Extraordinary insight into what BBC staff get up to during the day. Note the change to Bush’s Wikipedia entry.
http://biased-bbc.blogspot.com/2007/08/anonymous-biased-bbc-reader-notes-that.html
51. Redwood’s act was one of desperation, resulting from the fact that the leadership had their heads totally in the sand. They hadn’t a clue how angry the public were with them about the ERM fiasco and negative equity, or even how resentful their own activists were about Maastricht and other issues. They smugly assumed a couple of years of decent economic growth would mean all would be forgiven. Redwood was trying to get the party to wake up. Sadly, he failed.
47 To me Malcolm Chisholm always comes over as being a bit knackered and world-weary. Would probably compare unfavourably with the youthful, energetic (albeit annoying) Wendy Alexander. If I were them I’d be pushing Bill Butler to stand. In Scotland he might stand a chance of winning.
As a Scottish Lib Dem I’m not that bothered who leads the Scottish Labour party. I just find Wendy Alexander a bit difficult to listen to and would prefer that it was someone other than her getting up at FMQs etc.
[41] Sean Fear wrote Thatcher… forced Labour to abandon socialism.
Since you normally write sense, Sean, I’m not going to let you get away with that. Labour’s 1987 (and indeed 1992) manifestos were “socialist” in the sense of “democratic socialist” or “old Labour” - what knocked the stuffing out of the Left was taking in the full implications of the fall of the Berlin Wall, and the realisation that human beings aren’t actually as gung-ho for equality and co-operation as we had always told ourselves they were. (The influence of the Communist Party on “Old Labour” - and not just through the Trade Unions - was far stronger than has been acknowledged. It had a very acute sense of how & where it could and could not influence Old Labour, both nationally and locally.)
It is also well worth repeating that Redwood’s new deregulation agenda is as much an attack on Thatcherism (for she was quite happy with the Health & Safety At Work Act, the BBC licence fee etc) as it is an attack on anything else. She (like the British CP) had a very acute sense of what she could and could not change. Redwood, like Michael Foot, is a Parliamentary intellectual - a notoriously unrealistic breed.
A pedant writes: IA is not now, nor has he ever been a Communist. Not for the want of asking on their part, mind you.
“….BBC bosses, who pride themselves on their impartiality…..”
I am puzzled: how can one be proud of something which does not exist?
I think we should be told.
54
Actually I think Redwood was prepared to stand down for Portillo who would have had an excellent chance of achieving a good enough result to provoke Major’s resignation. However, the Spanish armada never put to sail because Portillo bottled it.
Major was quite close to resigning after the result as it was and it took Cranborne, Hurd and others to persuade him not to.
If Major had resigned there would probably have been a Heseltine Portillo contest with the former favourite. Whether the two of them could have brought the Party together in those circumstances I frankly doubt.
As for Heseltine’s forecast of a 60 majority, I don’t think he believed it for a moment. That explains his fatalistic approach to the leadership contest. If it fell into his lap then so be it but he was not going to reach for it again. Absent any signal from Heseltine, Mates and Hampson didn’t organise the minimal number of last minute abstentions which would have ended Major’s premiership. On the contrary Heseltinies flaunted their ballot papers showing a vote for Major.
completely off topic but MI5 whistleblower, David Shaylor appears to have lost the plot in spectacular style http://tinyurl.com/2xd4q9
the bit about Middlesbrough in Europe is particularly interesting
[59] Brilliant! I’m particularly relieved that Shayler tells us I’ve made it quite clear to my parents I’m not mad
Hopefully the Tories will include the privatisation of the BBC as part of their future plans,why the taxpayer is forced to pay for the bias and garbage dished up by this organisation is beyond belief.
Lets see how many real customers the BBC attracts when the state’s unbilical cord is cut and they finally enter the real world.
Telegraph’s on-side? Wow, so that’s going to win the election! :p
In all seriousness, I have no idea if this is a sign of anything.
Oh, I must have been thinking of something else. Ugh, crossed-wires. Anyway, the BBC having to apologise - not exactly new or I’m sure is indicative of a change. Though doubtlessly we shall see.
58. I’m finally finishing Campbell’s diaries (they’re long: it’s like reading Lord of the Rings, only with more trolls and orcs). Towards the end there is a cryptic line where Blair says a Portillo leadership, when that was looking likely, would be “ideal for Labour”.
Why? Portillo was by then a wised-up moderniser. Was it Portaloo’s gayness? His SAS speech?
Intriguing.
On the general theme of Redwood, here’s some advice for the Tories.
If you are going to present a package of measures which could be seen as robustly rightwing (tax cuts, arguments with Europe, etc) - GET A WOMAN OR AN ETHNIC MINORITY PERSON TO PRESENT THEM. EVEN BETTER, GET AN ETHNIC WOMAN.
This is just basic common sense. By using a rightwinger like Redwood to front these proposals, the Tories gave everyone else an open goal to shoot into - because Redwood just reminds Labour of the Tories they hated, which gets them fired up, and using John Redwood just reminds ordinary people of how weird John Redwood is.
The equivalent of what DC just did would be Labour, circa 1995, using, say, Eric Heffer to propose renationalisation of the railways. An arguable policy, given the mess the trains were in, but stupid politics. Which is why they never did anything so stupid.
I’m not knocking Redwood himself. He’s a smart and interesting thinker. But he should be a backroom boffin.
However, if you insist on using him, DC, use him to present leftwing or liberal proposals - pro gay marriage, pro NHS. Surprise us. Show us you’ve changed. By contrast, as I say, you should use nice soft women, preferably Asian or black, to propose the tough rightwing stuff.
It’s much harder for lefty papers to attack women, especially ethnic women.
You can have this advice for free. I normally charge.
59 “He’s not the Messiah. He’s a very naughty boy….”
59 and 60
Well, I for one am convinced by his claims.
The only thing I find odd is that Westerners who believe in reincarnation always believe that they were eminent people in past lives. Why are people never reincarnations of medieval peasants like Wat the Cowherd, or Dafyydd the Sheep Fondler.
What odds can I get that before the year ends, one of the Daily press will have used the following precise phrase, about Gordon Brown:
“And it had all started so well…”
???
66 “The only thing I find odd is that Westerners who believe in reincarnation always believe that they were eminent people in past lives.”
I believe. In a former life, I was Spartacus…
(go on, you know you want to….)
58 Portillo could never have made it to PM. Whether he would have made a good leader is irrelevant.
If you spend a bit of time reading this link and following it through (to what I hasten to add only allegations) will see why:
http://tinyurl.com/2zsmvh
69. Link doesnt work !
68 No - I was Spartacus….
58, 69, 70 Sorry, try this one.
http://pebpr.blogspot.com/
There’s also http://tinyurl.com/a6h3x
JackW was Adam
67 - Come off it! That’s more suitable for a spread bet of how many times that exact phrase is used.
SeanT. If you’ve read AC’s book (I’m just up to page 100) I’m sure you’ll agree quite how cack handed Cameron’s lot are when compared to Blair and co. Even the really stupid ones-and there were a few-were more professional than anyone at the top of to-days Tory Party.
The Redwood fiasco would have been impossible. It would have been seen before Redwood’s name even got considered. The more I read of Labour from ‘94-’97 the more obvious it becomes that not only are the Tories miles from getting into office but that the leader himself doesn’t have the faintest idea how to go about it.
72 David Shayler is more believable.
Sean
You’re quite wrong David Icke is far more credible. We’re being manipulated by repitilians from outer space who control the major power centres including NASA. All the evidence is there if you throw away your preconceptions.
http://www.davidickebooks.co.uk/index.php?act=viewDoc&docId=6
73 Jonathan. “… was Adam.”
I’m not dead yet !!
And pray who is my Eve ?? ….. BTW rumour has it I require a large fig leaf !!
75. Unfortunately, I kind of agree with you. Having read the Campbell diaries, the equivalent of the Redwood stunt - getting, say, Dennis Skinner to talk about the future of coalmining - would have been squashed before it was born by Campbell, Mandelson, et al.
Where I probably depart from you is my overall analysis of the Campbell book and what it means. Yes, it’s very readable - witty and brisk - and an invaluable insight into British politics and New Labour thinking.
But it is deeply, deeply unflattering about New Labour, probably much more than Campbell realised. It is inadvertently revealing.
Blair comes across as psychotically selfish. Campbell glum and punchy. Mandelson seems insecure to the point of hospitalisation. Brown is an unpalatable figure brooding on the edges.
Their entire philosophy is to screw the Tories and make good headlines. Principles are way down the list. The atmosphere is tawdry and bleak, albeit oddly watchable. Like a cheap porn flick.
Indeed, that’s what Blair etc come across as. Porno stars in the sordid skinflick of politics.
Blair is Johnny ‘the wad’ Holmes, obsessed with his manhood. Campbell is ‘King Dong’. Mandelson is Tracy Lords, constantly being shafted, and Brown is the bizarre German bloke with the weird haircut who comes in at the end for the money shot.
78. to cover up that strange rash perhaps
80 Jimbo. There’s nothing strange about my rash !! ….. there’s plenty that’s strange about me, but that’s another matter !!
Interesting new statesman article on the knives out for Ming:
http://tinyurl.com/2yjufj
OT. 2 new Scottish politics markets opened:
With VC.
Scottish Independence - Breaking Away
A Scottish Referendum to take place in 2007 20/1
A Scottish Referendum to take place in 2008 5/1
A Scottish Referendum to take place in 2009 6/4
A Scottish Referendum to take place in 2010 2/1
No Referendum before 2011 6/1
Scotland to break away from UK before Dec 31st 2009 7/1
Scotland to still be in the UK on Jan 1st 2010 1/14
With Hills
Wendy Alexander Favourite For Scottish Labour Leader!
Following the resignation of Jack McConnell as the Scottish Labour Leader, bookmakers William Hill have installed Wendy Alexander as their 1/7 favourite to take over the top job in the Scottish Labour party and offer 4/1 Andy Kerr and 12/1 Margaret Curran.
“At this stage it is not clear whether there will be a leadership contest but either way the odds suggest that it will be a walk in the park for Wendy Alexander,” said Hill’s spokesman Rupert Adams.
I know nothing about these markets - any value in there?
I’ve just read that thread on Mormonism, which was very informative. I’ve come across them evangelising in various parts of North London, over the years. Personally, I’d have no problems voting for a Mormon.
I believe one Labour MP is a Mormon. Who is it?
80. its a birth mark honestly
83 Caveman. Difficult to spot any value in either market.
84 Terry Rooney. So is the SNP MSP Brian Adam.
84 Sean F. I think you added an extra ‘m’ there !
84. Take the second ‘m’ out and there is an abundance of candidates.
“Scotland to still be in the UK on Jan 1st 2010 1/14″
Crud return. What’s that… 7% return over 2.5 years plus risk?
You could put the same cash in an ISA and get ~14% over the same period. Sans risk.
“Scotland to break away from UK before Dec 31st 2009 7/1″
Better. But still rubbish considering current opinion polls and the SNP minority government. I’d say the odds are at least 10/1 - probably more.
I never use bookies anyway. Only Betfair
In local elections, at least, I’ve certainly voted for a moron, in the past.
Some local councillors are capable of purely animal functions, and are barely competent at those.
66. Even if they weren’t famous they always come from a period in history we know about. Ancient Greece, Tudor England, the Wild West. You never hear about anyone remembering they were a 3rd century Mongolian peasant. Or a 12th century Ghanaian.
73. Considering out discussions yesterday, there are certain sects of Mormonism that believe Adam was God the Father. So that makes sense. (Incidentally, despite what was said yesterday, the idea he lived on another planet and Eve was just one of his wives that he brought here when he became a God is NOT official church teaching.)
84. Even scarier is that there’s a Tory peer who’s a Scientologist.
93 That’s nothing. There’s a Lib Dem Peer who thinks he is God - and worships his own creator.
93 Which one?
95. My information was well off actually. He was Lib Dem I think, and was a hereditary who had to give up his seat.
http://www.modernteaching.org/biographies.htm
The count for Aberdeen Council byelection, the first one using the system, will be held tomorrow (so not stay up all night to wait for the winner
Looking at the May results, it can potentially be very close and the order of elimination can be crucial
19. FTSE just gone below 5900 (3.5% down). Looking very serious now…
The US Treasury Secretary’s take on the current crisis.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/thereporters/robertpeston/
Markets are looking very dangerous. even big institutions having funding problems eg Northern Rock. Countrywide (massive mortgage co) rumoured to be in trouble in the US. buy to let and weaker credit mortgage liquidity will dry up very fast on the high street as a result. Given the time lag involved house prices may hold up for another 2-3 months then it will start to affect the market severely. Gordon should go now.
75 If you want even more explicit evidence of how far the tories are from labour 92 - 97 read one of the Brown biographies. Whatever you think of him, he and his team did huge amounts of work thinking and redefining labour’s policies and linking this to an election winning strategy. When TB became leader these policies were fleshed out to become the basis for the platform for the 97 election and then government. There is nothing like this going on in the tory party currently rather a bunch of disjointed policy commissions which seem to produce conclusions DC has to distance himself from.
GB might well have been difficult and obsessive but his singleminded pursuit of policies to win an election allied with Campbell and Mandelson’s media skills, Blair’s ability as a front man and the creative tension between them do not appear to have any parallel in the current tory party. Neither does there seem to be the desire for power that ran through the whole labour party which resulted in a united, disciplined and motivated party determined to win.
Campbell’s book is interesting, though it does concentrate ( not unnaturally given his job ) on the media stuff, however it is annoying that much that would be of interest has been left out ( eg the episode with Charlie Whelan making government policy on the Euro from the Red Lion pub ). I cant see that anyone could use it as a manual on how to win an election, too much gossip - interesting though it is not enough detail.
83 - Unless I’m completely misreading this, I would have thought “no referendum before 2011” @ 6/1 was great value. Presumably any referendum would require legislation to be passed by the Scottish parliament, and given that 79 of the 129 MSPs are either Labour, Tory or Lib Dem, all of whom are opposed to any referendum on independence, it’s difficult to see how that could happen. The SNP may be stirring up a lot of talk, but the aren’t even close to the parliamentary majority they’d need.
100.
it’s not looking great, is it.
98 Forgive me asking but why is it very serious ? Markets go up markets go down from time to time they go up a lot in a short period , from time to time they go down a lot in a short timescale . That is their nature , the world carries on and unless you have invested at a peak and are looking at heavy paper losses it does not really matter that much .
104. As yields are high its good news for those not retiring any time soon - this month the pension fund will buy a lot more units than last
Mark - basically Countrywide (large US mortgage lender) down 65%, may go bust, it will affect house prices and mortgages in the states, will affect housing markets world wide. A large housing bubble has been created by cheap money. Lenders taking out more than they can afford. If you look under the rug the house of cards may tumble (Bernard Woolley steps in to stop me mixing my metaphors)
103
no its not. the implosion of CDO vehicles will seriously reduce the liquidity in mortgage markets over coming months. Losses on mortgage books will require financials to reduce their exposure which really means tightened lending requirements. less caital for the riskier mortgage segments like buy-to-let, self employed and 100% mortgages will see the froth come off the market very quickly. more worrying would be a contraction of city bonuses which drive the london market. the last quarter of the year is always the weakest for inv banking resuts so huge losses sustained over the past 3 months cannot be recovered before year end. UBS have already warned of a “very weak” trading which could mean up to a billion off income in a quarter - thats just one firm. those hardest hit will be the hedge fund types who have profited from leverage over the past years but will be decimated on the way down.
105. Good buying opportunities all round.
Mark I’m no expert but you saw how bad the negative equity crisis was in the UK in the 90s. That is what is facing homeowners in many parts of the US, particularly in States like California and Florida where prices hav already slumped.
Those institutions, including european ones, which carry overvalued mortgage securities paper could themselves get into serious trouble causing a very serious chain reaction.
In practice I’m sure the Fed will pump money into the sytem as they did when the dot com bubble burst. And lower rates in the US would mean that talk of 6% here is almost certainly dead. The next move could be down in the UK unless the bank wants the pound at 2.5 to the dollar.
107, 108 maybe London house prices will drop a bit.
Malcolm Chisholm MSP won’t stand and back Wendy.
Elaine Smith MSP said she won’t stand but she would like to see a contest
104. I’m no expert, and markets obviously move up and down all the time, but when the markets fall this quickly it usually implies there are a lot of forced sellers out there who need money quickly. It could be to cover losses elsewhere or just to switch their investments into safer asset classes, but either way it isn’t a good short term sign.
109 I am seriously considering investing in FL property which in a month or so will be going for a song.
Interesting if the Fed cuts interest rates. Not good for the UK to have the pound so high. Personally, good for me as a property investor, I am looking to pick something up Stateside. That’s the real buying opportunity, US property
112 And when was the last time markets fell dramatically , not that many years ago was it ? We are all still here life going on and the markets recovered and went higher . These dramas make nice doom and gloom headlines but have little implications long term .
Test As someone who goes to the US regularly prices in the US are very cheap. $2 to the £ adds up to very cheap holidays and as you say real estate in some areas. Southern California and Florida prices have apparently dropped 20% from what I heard on the US news; they were clearly the most exposed having risen like a rocket over the years.
83. None there that I can see.
I think we need to reflect what is going on the stock market. Its sentiment and the sentiment is that the easy credit days are over and its going to damage some of those companies most directly involved. If you look at the market falls, the banks have been taking some of the biggest hits on their share prices (as have mining companies suggesting raw material demand is feared to eb slowing) and there is a worry that one or two big institutuins will at some point announce that they are fairly exposed to sub prime releated losses. These losses are are probably relative in that they won’t necessarily crush any large bank but they will send their management into caution mode to ensure that profits are maintained and shareholders are kept happy by taking less risks and thsu tightening up who they lend to. Some smaller banks and institutions in the mortgage business have been and will take big, and in some cases fatal hits.
The central banks have been pumping money in to keep the markets liquid. This is not an unusual occurance, the problem lies in the high level of intervention and the possibility that they can’t keep doing that if the jitters continue unabated for a period. If they do central banks may be faced with having to scale back their cash injections and its possible that in the markets’ eyes that will be like falling off a cliff, albeit a small one. If that ever did occur, then we’d see bigger losses on the markets.
For those that suggest the UK economy will float on through bear in mind the following.
The recent figures showing a jump in house repossessions can possibly be seen in the context of the turmoil in the markets. One contriubtory factor to the jump in repossessions is that the lenders are not giving people as much as time or opportunity to restructure & catch up with payment problems. It is perfectly possible that one (of a number) of reasons for this is that the lenders, knowing that sub prime is in trouble and their exposure to it are really tightening up under orders from those at the top not to string things out and to cut the danger of losses on such things as household mortgages.
Lenders sell on the risks on their loans to other institutions who take the risk that the loans will all be honky dory and perform as expected and they make a profit. Clearly some loans are not and as a result of the sub prime issues, the lenders are not finding it so easy or cheap to back off the risks thus they are really exposed and its feeding its way back into the domestic mortgage market. Possibel result? Banks are not giving as much leeway to people who are having payment issues.
Add to this the fixed rate mortgages being adjusted upwards in time as teaser offers come to an end and it could get more difficult. This is a particular issue in the US and could happen here also. More directly, if the US consumer is hitting a brick wall financially, and certainly there are signs from major US companies in bellweather segments of teh economy that things are tight, it will effect everyone including our economy, end of.
115 and it will get worse. A three bed villa in FL on a development with a pool, US relatives of mine told me just sold for $160k, that’s around eighty thou UK. Now a strengthening pound and mortgage troubles/property nervousness - if Countrywide does fail - it’s going to be an historically excellent opportunity to pick up property very cheaply in good locations. Just a rebalancing of the currency could give you 15% profit. Long term of course property always rises.
I’m getting in this year.
Mark Senior - when house prices went negative equity the Tories suffered for it for a generation.
It matters, believe me.
Test
Didn’t you tell me you didn’t gamble??!!!
It’s not a gamble, mate. Trust me.
118 Test , if you believe that US house prices have turned down and decide to invest out there , then that is good for you , unless of course they fall even lower and then you are looking at a paper loss ( unless you are forced to sell ) . I still can’t see how it is of great significance to the majority of people living in Worthing , Hackney or Stockport . House prices in the UK may fall temporarily but mortgage rates will probably fall too so more people are likely to benefit than suffer losses ( and most losses will be paper losses or not even be paper losses but smaller paper gains ) .
http://www.mls.com/
Forget the greyhounds PtP. Make your fortune
83 Thanks Caveman
Nothing really leaps off the page there as outstanding value,except maybe the ‘no referendum before 2011 - 6/1′ although I think you’d need to know about the mechanics before taking a view.
I have a couple of small speculative bets with WillHill - Scottish Independence by 2012 [100/1] and 2017 [33/1]. You’ve got to write off those sorts of bets mentally as soon as you make them, but I think both are much better value than any included in your list at 83, Caveman.
121. Mortgage rates are going to rise, Mark, b/c interest rates are going to rise. And stock market falls affect pensions, everything. What do you think Black Wednesday was all about?
Henryg, are you still lurking?
I’ve a question for you on Easington branches organization (yeah, a very exciting thing!)
117. Test
Countrywide will probably go Chapter 11 so it will trade ion whilst restructuring. Its failure or otherwise shoudl effect teh overal price situation. it would be a victim of a situation already underway.
114. Who cares about long term? People worry about where they are now and their ability to pay bills and have some kind of standard of living. Costs, wages and economies all grow in time but the average Joe doesnt give a fiddlers for what it’ll be like in 5 years time, he’s worried about the next 6 months and if things contract and affect him or her, they’ll very possibly vote a particular way because of it.
Test
Mind you they do have hurricanes in Florida-and floods too! The market may take quite a time to recover after it’s bottomed out so it’s unlikely to produce a quick return.
Blue Moon, it’s “investors” (I use the scare quotes advisedly) who think they can flip houses or who extend themselves to max leverage that have caused this credit crunch. Any real property investor needs to be looking at minimum a five year window. The US fundamentals are fine. Nobody ever lost money betting on the US - as long as they were not looking for instant turnaround.
Anyway, I’m buying on this wobble.
And if I were into stocks, I’d be looking to pick up some large caps at a nice discount
120 Test - “It’s not a gamble, mate. Trust me.”
Now where have I heard those words before?
And why do they make me want to hide my wallet away?!
124 Test , I think you are wrong here and the next movement in interest rates will be downwards following US rates .
Test If you’re taking a 5 year view you’ve no problems at all, I agree.
121. If you live anywhere in the UK and cant pay your mortgage because of higher rates because of BoE interest rate rises.
If you find that your mortgage is eating up more of your income thus leaving less for disposable income that drives large section of the economy.
If you try to remortgage to get more cash out of the value of a house you bought 3 or 4 years ago only to find that the bank isnt interested in playing because its being cautious.
If you try to sell your house and find, yes its buy price has gone up but there are few buyers.
If you find that you are having issues and the bank, being cautious again, gives you little if any leeway.
They all affect the pounds in people’s pockets. Lack of pounds equals lack of spending, lack of spending affects all kinds of companies and industries. Less output affects prospects, job creation and possibly leads to job losses.
Mark, what do you for a living by the way?
You do realise, Test, how much you are starting to sound like Arthur Daly…?
131. Another good point to discuss. US may have to drop interest rates b/c of the unsustainable position. Then what does the UK do? we can’t keep the pound this high, so do we cut? Scylla and charibdis - everyone yesterday on tv pointing out that 1.9% would not last and July had special circs (floods). So cut rates when inflationary pressures are basically high?
I wouldn’t enjoy being Eddie George today. It’s a tough one. We have inflationary pressure, med-long term that means rates rising.
Test
If its of any use a friend of mine who works for a alrge US insurance & mortgage services concern tells me they expect the loans for mortgages market only to begin picking up in 2009 again which should give you an idea of the timelines for the property marlet.
135 Eddie George?! It’s Mervyn King! Concentrate, Test! Stop dreaming of Florida!!
re the FTSE : Has Gordo called a Cobra meeting yet ?
What the world needs in this crisis is his steady hand on a buff folder at the top of a table of civil servants…
133 I work for a manufacturing company in Newhaven , Yokel .
It is not many months ago that inflation and RPI was going up and interest rates were said to have to go up too but this month’s RPI figures confounded the doomsters and I am pretty confident that the next movement in interest rates will be downwards .
136 Yes, Yokel, and I think your previous posts about a GE either very early or very late are now extremely relevant for political punters.
The early option is disappearing fast.
Yokel thanks, yes, very interesting. I absolutely relish the opportunity to buy property in the US on a dip. British investors can buy on a $2 (or more) pound. Just the currencies resetting to a more normal 1.7., 1.65 or lower would give you a nice return… before your property itself had even taken a step to recovery off its lows.
137 yes lol sorry
thinking of that Viz cartoon with Mervyn King
139 “I work for a manufacturing company in Newhaven…”
Bloody hell, Mark, somebody on PB with a proper job - a rare bird indeed.
141 Why is $ 1.7 more normal than $ 2 to a £ . Why is not $ 2.2 to a £ more normal at least for the next 2/3 years ?
142
That really made me smile Test, but I’m going to twist your tail a bit more.
Your disclaimers about betting have always been treated with respect but now I learn that you do gamble, only on different things to me. It reminds me of one of my all time favorite quotes. Damon Runyon:
“All of life’s a gamble, and mostly the odds are 5/4 against.”
You can’t get away from it, mate.
141,144 Jack W can tell you about the days when it was $8 to the £. There is no “natural” price for a currency.
102.Jeremy, that is good value. I don’t think there will be a referendum before 2011. It is not just the combined reluctance of the opposition parties, but also Salmond himself. He would be taking a hell of gamble which IMHO he would lose in the next 2/3 years.
I think he will be happy to have a *conversation* with the voters now “let them get used to the idea”? But his overriding aim will be to instil confidence in the SNP as a government and to improve their performance at the next Holyrood elections. They want to win big next time and that would be a powerful mandate for a referendum, this could put the other parties in some difficulty on the issue.
145. In a way, all life is a gamble. But think about this Peter. Your call on an election or a horse or a dog can go to zero. A stock can go to zero.
A house cannot go to zero. Unlike other forms of gambling it has inherent value. People do not have an innate need for Son of Mighty Fella to win a race. They do have an innate need for somewhere to live.
Races have no ten year cycle. Houses do.
116 Great post,Yokel.
It’s been waiting to happen, though, hasn’t it? The economic figures in the US simply don’t add up. Here, our economy has been by ever-rising house prices, equity withdrawals, cheap money, etc etc. There are topsies everywhere, just waiting to fall over.
Interesting suggestion that it’s not just sentiment that’s driving down mining shares. If that’s true, then we’re in for another more big shock or two.
The growth in China’s economy is behind the drive in raw material prices. China’s CSI 300 index is trading on an average P/E ratio of 49 times. Compare the S&P 500: 18 times. Of course, valuations are based on expected incomes and if the growth just carries on and on then 49 could be justified. But.
With Wal Mart’s profit warning the other day came information that sales of their food lines were increasing, but demand for everything else they sell was declining. So if their food lines were in demand, the suggestion is that people in the USA are finding it hard pay the prices in their usual supermarket. And if everything else in Wal Mart isn’t selling well, and no prizes for guessing where it all comes from, then this is a warning that growth in China won’t continue like it has. And this is just the start of the affect of the credit crisis.
It used to be said that if the US sneezes, then the rest of the world catches a cold. I’d update th