Is there any value on the general election markets?
August 18th, 2007
Does the chart say it all?
It is some time since this chart, showing how punters are assessing Labour and Tory chances of winning most seats has been featured here. It illustrates the changing views of the main parties chances based on the price available on Betfair converted into an implied probability.
The steep Brown bounce is there for all to see and the issue is whether the Labour price will harden even more as the party consolidates its poll leads or whether there is any prospect of a Tory recovery?
For gamblers like me who like to bet short-term in long term markets the big question is what happens if polls start showing a lessening of Labour’s lead. Is that likely to happen and if so when?
I am not aware of any new surveys coming out this weekend but if they are following their normal schedules fieldwork for ICM’s monthly Guardian poll and the Independent’s Communicate Research survey should be being carried out this weekend. Given that there’s been slightly less about Labour in the media and a bit more about the Tories then there could be slight changes.
My general election betting is confined to the Labour price on the Spreadfair commons seat market. I had a buy position at 311.75 seats which I’ve now closed at 314-315 seats just in case there is a reduction in Labour’s poll lead. I’ve not bet the other way - this move is just precautionary and I’ve pocketed a small profit.
Punters seem to react more strongly to good Tory news than in the other direction. Last weekend I thought that the YouGov 10% Labour lead would have pushed the spread on commons seats much higher than it did.
Mike Smithson
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Possibly buying Tory at 240 seats or below.
Those prices look about right to me given the objective factors people raise here from time to time - the trend to swing away from the government in each election, the current poll lead discounted by the fact that new leaders usually get a bounce which dissipates over time, etc.
After a honeymoon, we’d normally expect some kind of Events-based wobble between now and the next election, at which point the media would want to run on a “Brown was rubbish after all” theme for a while. This would provide an opportunity to sell Conservatives at a profit (if bought now) and stock up on Labour.
The main things that might derail this scenario are:
a) An early election where Gordon gets to ride his bounce all the way.
b) The Tories imploding.
Although there’s not much substantial evidence for (b), I do have a tentative, can’t-quite-put-my-finger-on-it hunch is that Cameron’s Conservatives have now jumped the shark, and from now on they’ll have a hard time recovering much beyond their core vote even if Labour screw up fairly gruesomely.
Maybe best stay away for the time being, and think about buying Labour if and when they undergo a media-supported wobble?
It’s possible that the Brown bounce might fade a little in the next couple of polls in the absence of a new crisis with which he can be seen as strong and decisive. Maybe for a limited time Labour benefits from GB exposure just as the Tories benefited from DC exposure. In the last couple of weeks GB hasn’t been very visible which migh be seen in a slight drop in the poll lead. Only a theory!
The honeymoon will end at some time so if that effect exists it certainly won’t last.
I’m not a Brown bounce believer as such, my own belief being that we have returned to, ‘normal politics’. Labour’s polling figures were being depressed by TB and Iraq, both now out of the equation.
The failure of the Tories and others to pin the blame on Brown of the following: floods,foot & mouth,market turmoil, shows that the Labour lead is solid. Unless a crisis on the scale of, winter of discontent/ERM ejection takes place, Labour are set fair, to win a fourth election victory with a substantial majority.
The reason why punters over react to any good news for the Tories, is that the Tories are over represented amongst the punter community, and on the internet blogs generally. This over representation, leads to a distortion in the way politics are viewed by many posters. The E&S by-election was a classic, anyone reading this site and many others would have been convinced, that the Tories were going to win and win big.
My opinion FWIW , is that the Brown bounce is mostly froth and based mainly on increased support for Labour amongst those who did not vote in 2005 - see Nick Sparrow’s post on here a couple of weeks ago . It is not clear that this group of people will actually turn out to vote in the next GE ( they didn’t last time ) and explains why in recent real elections , Labour support is showing no more than a slight recovery if any from the dismal levels of 2004/2006 and this May .
3. There is a new crisis of far greater significance than the F&M and the floods, the subprime panic sweeping financial markets. Labour are trying to brush this off as ‘markets do this kind of thing from time to time’ - but it could change attitudes about money and lending completely.
The current era started in the 1980s with the Wall Street, Thatcher, Reagan Greed is Good philosophy, eagerly adopted by the moree left-wing governments of Clinton/Greenspan, and Blair/Brown and which latterly has spawned the hedge funds and private equity, that has come to dominate western markets.
For a great explanantion of what the sub-prime panic means see http://www.ft.com/cms/s/88863e9e-4ce9-11dc-a51d-0000779fd2ac.html
Labour will not get off unscathed by this - as the regulatory environment which has permitted this crisis and the lack of management of hedge funds and their role in securitisation of debt, has to be partly the government’s fault. Brown has ridden the boom as surely as any investor, refusing to reign it in, or ask too many questions.
The consequences could be economically significant on the real economy. Questions which should have been asked by investors before are now being asked. People will swing from being risk hungry (even foolish risk hungry) to ludicrously careful. The big money culture that has enabled the longterm to be ignored in favour of big short term gains/now losses will be heavily hit…and about time too.
If governments cut interest rates in the panic as they are doing in the US, to help the indebted, this could stoke inflation…or could be a sound move. No one yet knows.
The problem for Labour is that no one has done more of the kind of off-balance sheet financing that is now bringing the financial system into panic and disrepute than Brown has. Conservatives toyed with PFI, but Gordon Brown made it the normal way to fund capital spending in the UK, and has created liabilities for future taxpayers valued in billions.
People might start looking at the real government accounts with PFI contract liabilities included and public servant pension liabilities also valued in hundreds of billions. In the new mood, investors could well start asking the questions they should have asked before - while brokers pocketed fees and bonuses, passing on the risks to someone else. Again not before time.
Gordon Brown’s new problem is that people will start asking questions about him soon. He will find it very hard to give true answers without admitting incompetence on the grand scale.
No one is better qualified to start asking penetrating questions than one John Redwood, he who cannot sing in ancient tongues, whose manner in the 80s and 90s was ridiculed as Vulcan-like. Cometh the hour, cometh the Redwood.
The effect on polling as this crisis unfolds should be interesting. The media will no doubt try to cover Gordon’s backside, but the more they hide and obfuscate, the more their already damaged credibility will descend.
People will be in the market for things not heard of for a while - trust, belief, credibility, honesty and truth. Gordon Brown’s reputation for economic stability will be in tatters.
The EU is trying to find ways to get into more control and regulate more heavily Britain’s financial system. the subprime panic will give them the xcuse they are looking for.
The irony is that had we not been stuck inside the EU, we could have managed the crisis better in the first place, as concerns about hedge funds and private equity would have surfaced during debates in Parliament, and financial experts who have been warning of trouble to come for ages, might well have been listened to. Blair and Brown have ruled through the media where spin has overriden proper debate. Blair has escaped his just deserts thanks to Gordon Brown. Brown should now collect the blame which is rightfully his.
The above comments look a sensible range of predictions to me. Media coverage of the Tories has been largely positive recently for a change, and it’s probably the first chance we have to see how firm the Brown bounce is. I’d expect a settling but not a huge one, say from the 5-6% range to a 3-4% one.
Like coldstone I expect Labour to win the election, so Spreadfair’s market showing a huge swing to the Tories looks way out of line. It’s not just punters’ own preferences - it’s that they mostly know other Tories who share their views.
If the election proves to be years away then it’s likely to stay that way for a while. As it becomes clear that the election is approaching, if Labour is still ahead then punters’ heads will start to overrule their hearts and you should be able to make a killing if you’ve bought Labour seats at the current levels (or you can just wait for the result to prove it). But in the short term it could easily go the other way as Tory punters joyfully celebrate any reduction in the Labour lead.
Just to clarify - Tapestry’s comments came in while I was writing. I wouldn’t want to accuse him of being sensible.
6
Simple question Tapestry: Who would you like to be leader of the Conservative Party, John Redwood or David Cameron.
Are you ignoring the big story, Nick? People don’t want to know about what you think of my sensibleness,or the lack of it. They want to know whether the sub-prime crisis will affect them, and how…and on here how this factor will play out on polling.
I don’t expect you to share my views and interpretation. But I would expect you to provide an alternative, although I can understand it if you are doing what Gordon Brown is currently doing - hiding and keeping his head down, hoping this will all go away.
Excellent article Tapestry………
Clearly PFI et al should be included within the balance sheet but I’ve long since lost the will to live arguing the point !
The US interest rate cut is extremely interesting. Irrespective of whether or not ‘it works’ it is a bold move and a textbook Central Bank response to a Credit Crunch/Plunging Stockmarkets.
Last time out, we followed suit.
With the next move here having been widely called as being up (notwithstanding the better than expected inflation figures during the week) this has the potential to cause further widespread turmoil in itself in the Bond and futures markers.
We’ve yet to fully see the full extent of the damage/fall out from the US sub-prime debacle. Thinking back to recent US Corporate scandals, the pain could (not necessarily is)be only just beginning.
Having a serviced based economy is all very well and certainly protects us to some degree from any shrinkage in Global trade.
Problem will be, if the shake out is intense enough, that it will definitely impact on employment (as it has previously)
Overmortgaged households will find very little sympathy from Bank Managers under extreme pressure to rebuild their balance sheets.
Negative equity didn’t do us a whole bunch of favours in the early 90’s. It will likewise damage Labour,even though Brown will I sense find some cover via ’safety in numbers’ if its gets as bad as it could.
I was a Liam Fox supporter in the leadership contest. His team asked me to assist in handling media as part of a mobile unit going round with Liam during the campaign, but as he never got through the Parliamentary round, I was stood down. That was fortunate as I became quite seriously ill shortly afterwards and have had to change over to a slower life and give up work at a relatively young age. I’ve moved abroad now as the climate suits my health better than in the UK. Aren’t we lucky that the internet keeps me in touch so easily with politics back home?!
Redwood is very happy with Cameron and Osborne. Non issue, Coldstone.
12
I don’t think it is a non-issue. If Labour hold onto their poll lead, then the right will get restless. The right now have a champion, they have a policy, if Cameron shows a reluctance to follow the right’s agenda, then the scene could be set for, Tory wars once again.
Sorry to hear about your health problems, I do hope you have fully recovered.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/Columnists/Column/0,,2150591,00.html
13. dream on coldstone. i can understand your desperation. I repeat the last line of Post 12.
thanks for your concerns.
HenryG, as you predicted yesterday Easington shortlist is Morris, Routledge, Taylor-Gooby and the 4th shortlisted is Farmida Bi, co-founder of Progressive British Muslim Group.
Negative equity in abslute term is unlikely other than possibly for those that bought at the top of the market or remortgaged at the top of the market.
A big fall in property prices, if it happens is relative because of the rises that proceeded it.
The reality is that there is a tightening of credit and that wont change because the Fed cut interest rates, its a policy issue to cut losses by finacial institutions. Making lending a bit cheaper will not stop that policy for a while. Things are getting shaken out. The problem isnt interet rates, its poor credit decisions.
Finally, the Fed cut is because the short term cash injections werent working. That shows that there is a bigger problem than some jumpy financial markets.
I took some comfort from that alex when I read it yesterday. No-one except perhaps the Telegraph’s economics editor has a worse track record than Larry Elliott.
“Progessive British Muslim Group”
Sounds like a bad soft rock outfit from the seventies that did 12 minute long songs….
11 2 days ago I called the next interest rate change here down not up , still think I will be proved correct .
Two good posts from you this morning, Yokel. You feeling OK?
1. Agreed. 240 is my benchmark for entering the seats market and buying Tory.
17. Agreed, regrettably. It’s payback time for too much easy credit, here as well as the US. Does not look like a five-minute crisis to me.
Tapestry
Answered your latest tax query at the end of the thread two back, although I think the subject has been done to death now.
Hope you are recovering nicely and enjoying warmer climes. Been dreadful here, as I expect you’ve heard. Played havoc with the horseracing form.
21. The good sense faded by post 19…..
23 LOL!
But not your sense of humor, I see!
I’ll be back later. Gotta go pound the streets of Wanstead now.
You want any tips today? I seem to have turned the corner with the horses. 11/2 winner yesterday. Some good stuff on today.
24. Yeah pass them on. I’m out in the early afternoon but back by 3.30 so any news that i can act on before or races after i’ll be interested in.
It is ludicrous, that anyone should defend any governments economic record over a ten year period. There are going to be problems, faults and flaws will build up, leading to economic stress and strain: inevitable!
The question is how much will this damage the governments credibility, and will the electorate turn to the opposition for its salvation.
Despite it all, the government does not seem to be taking the flak for this, its being blamed, (in the main) on profligate US banks lending money to people who could not be guaranteed to pay them back: end of story.
A crisis seems to boost Brown, not depress him. All polling evidence shows, he out polls Cameron on the question: ‘Who do you trust in a crisis’, by a large margin, this cannot be ignored.
Even if the outcome of this, ‘crisis’ or ‘market adjustment,’ (depending on your point of view) is a recession or a house price crash, leading to negative equity, this may not drive voters into the arms of the opposition. The voters would have to be convinced, the Tories, ‘could do better’ very little evidence to support that.
On the house price crash,/negative equity, it may not affect the government in the same way as it did in the nineties:-
1. Its happened before.
2. Everyones expecting it, no one seriously believes that house
prices can go on, ‘up’ forever
3. The housing market eventually recovered.
The problem Coldstone is that people do often blame governments whether its the governments fault or not.
The government can not stop the effects of global fluctuation, all it can do is to give themselves the room and tools seek to smooth them out and buffer against bad times. If they havent been doing that then they deserve to be kicked out.
Equally, if a government cant be blamed for global recession and its effects it cant take all the credit for growth.
26-But the same could be said of someone reading in the 1990s?
When I hear the word “everyone” I know it means “not many”
Also, as regards 3), in the 1990s it took several long years for prices to recover.
Will the government cop the blame? Or will they blame it on the 1979-97 Tory government?
If I may I’d like to say a few words on Bill Deedes.
The media will rightly be full of fine tributes to Bill. In his professional career as a journalist he bestrode the stage with a light touch and munificent spirit that is so rarely found in todays high octane media.
If I had to use one word for the great man I would use the word generous. He was generous of his time, generous of his mind and generous of his spirit.
Following on from the death of John Biffen, for the second time this week a very fine man has left this earthly stage. And with the recent death of Sir Ian Anstruther, a triumverate of the most noblest of British men has been lost to the nation.
Bill Deedes RIP.
27
The government wasn’t blamed for: floods,foot&mouth, despite the best efforts of many on this site, (including yourself) why should it be blamed for this?
30. Whn did i blame them for those two?
14 Thanks for that Alex…
Perhaps the Guardian isn’t a complete pile of festering left wing
***p at all times after all !
Actually agree strongly with the journo’s take on the irony of Central Banks/Governments now needing to bail them out too FWIW.
The bottom line is there’s no choice is there….
Lift your eyes and see the world TB. Where’s Mark Senior with a membership application form when you need him most …….
Regards
Mark Senior
On the Brown bounce. As I recall Mike’s analysis of the last ICM poll showed that the Brown bounce was based on two factors.
First, there has been a marked rise in the percentage of those who said they voted Labour in 2005 saying they would vote Labour now. The Tories used to have a big lead here. Now Labour is up to an 88% figure compared to 87% for the Tories.
Second, there is a finding, as you say, that there has been an increase in those who didn’t vote last time saying they would vote Labour at the next GE. It’s very hard to say whether these people wil actually vote or not, as you say.
I’m not sure that examination of local by elections are going to get us very far; Labour turnout is likely to be at its weakest here. However, you would I am sure accept that a good number of Labour voters abstained in 2005 mainly because of Iraq. Isn’t it at least possible that many of them will vote next time now that the TB ‘fur ball’ has been expelled from the Labour Party?
The challenge for the Tories and the LDs is to get across to the public the failures of public policy over the last ten years and lay them at GB’s door. He’s not ‘new’ at all. Over time as manifestations of these failures pop up it shouldn’t be hard to do that.
The best news for both LDs and Tories will be 3-4% poll leads in September which take away the temptation for an early poll. I doubt very much that things will be better for Labour in the Spring.
29. You may, and I’m sure many would endorse your words. I certainly do.
31
If you didn’t, then you’re about the only who didn’t.
I concur with Jack W in sharing his sadness at the passing of Bill Deedes-even as a Labour supporter,I do admit to finding the ‘Daily Telegraph’ an stimulating,challenging journal to peruse-even though I disagree with its political stance.Bill Deedes,and indeed John Biffen,come from a different generation,of what I think of as ‘gentlemen Tories’,if that makes sense (in other words they represent the paternalistic one-nation wing of the Tories which largely seems to have gone,with Labour now being acknowledged as occupying that ground.
To sum up,I express my sincere condolences to the relatives of both men who passed away this week,R.I.P
35 Well I didn’t either………
30. “The government wasn’t blamed for: floods,foot&mouth, despite the best efforts of many on this site, (including yourself) why should it be blamed for this?”
The government wasn’t blamed for the floods because it was an ‘act of God’, which the government couldn’t do too much about in the short term, the emergency agencies did their job well, floods happen from time to time and we’re used to them, and they were in remote parts of the country like Yorkshire and Gloucestershire which the media don’t really care about. There may be some residual resentment at planning and housebuilding policy, but these are spread over so many agencies it’s difficult for it to gain focus and in any case, most people recognise that there is a housing shortage which needs dealing with.
The government didn’t get the blame for Foot and Mouth as it was contained and didn’t shut down the countryside like last time. Again, few people were directly impacted - you can still get food on the supermarket shelves. It also remains unclear as to who was to blame for the outbreak in the first place.
I rather suspect that the financial turmoil of the last week will have little impact politically in the short term at least. The markets are obviously jittery and if there’s a restricting of credit, that’s no bad thing.
The stock market has enjoyed a good run recently although it does depend on the timescale you look at. There was an article on the news on Thursday with an analyst explaining the ‘crash’ and the graph behind him ran more-or-less north-east throughout. The drops of the last week were small in comparison (and even more so now). A drop based on more realistic expectations of takeover activity - indeed, more sensible takeover activity full stop - before a bubble develops would be a positive development.
Politically, it won’t matter until it starts affecting the average man or woman in the street, which at the moment it’s not doing. Businesses are not closing and homes are not being repossessed at anything other than a ‘normal’ level. If there is a problem coming with the UK housing market, I suspect it may exist more in the amateur buy-to-let sector than anywhere else.
Patrick - Lord Biffen (John) was a eurosceptic, and the most resistant Maastricht Rebel of them all - which in BBC-speak is always called ‘right-winger’. He was in social terms as you say, nothing of the sort. BBC terminology is so brainless when they talk of ‘lurches to the right’. It seems to keep the poor misguided dears blissfully happy reciting their labels, but it’s a load of old tosh.
The application of the brain to complex problems is neither right or left. We need more thinking and discussion of ideas, and less yah-boo BBC interview nonsense designed to stop the truth from coming out.
John was a one-nation Tory in the class warfare sense only, and had much in common with David Cameron’s approach today - not always siding where you would expect a Tory to side, but strongly pro-maintaining the sovereignty of Parliament, and aware that our loss of self-government is doing enormous harm.
In the age of Cameron, it is far harder to tell the Haves from the Chavs. There will soon be no nation, as the bureaucratisation of Britain into powerless mini-regions proceeds apace - in secret. Less class is a good thing. No nation is not.
22. i found your reply. thank you.
Relief as StJohn said last night that none of the three obituried are you Jack! I always associated Bill Deedes with Private Eye though I discoverd last night that all he supplied was inspiration. Nonetheless everyone speaks well of him so RIP.
From a political point of view any world financial problems will almost certainly boost Brown at the time of an election for the reasons stated by Coldstone. There are few who would prefer an Osborne/Cameron arm on the tiller than a Brown one to navigate a financial storm……
But In terms of polls this might not be so. People like to register a protest when things are going badly when there is no actual cost for doing so. Thus I predict a narrowing to three ‘Gordons’ in at least one poll this month. Thus sell Labour for a short term gain
“30. Whn did i blame them for those two?”
Yokel. Though I don’t spend much time reading your posts you were one of the posters blaming Brown for the effects of the floods. Coldstone was correct.
41. Roger
Bollocks.
My point was that not enough of the right things was being done. That wasnt blaming Gordon personally and screaming it was Gordon’s fault, that was blaming the response which wasnt good enough something that post analysis by government will no doubt see. If you think any post analysis will say it was all honky dory, you can forget it. Thinsg went wrong more than they should have.
There were clear problems in the response, in co-ordination, in getting the right tools to the right places. There was a lack of the likes of military helicopters and so on. That wasnt me saying that, it was the people involved in doing the work. Much of thsi was essentially organisational and resource availability. Whos responsible for that? Government and government bodies who desrve criticism if they get it wrong.
My other point was that theere didnt seem to be enough focus on the issues and also threre wasnt a fast enough call for assistance from European patners. The fact that a day or so later some of the media picked up on that (though they picked the drawing down of money article whilst I was talking about skills and equipemnt)
Call it criticising Gordon if you want but thats talking out your rear hole.
Mistakes were made.
Mike you must be about the only person actually buying or selling on spreadfair at the moment, the market is very very slow consequently it is doubtful how much it reflects the reality on the ground. Hopefully when the holiday period is over we shall see more activity.
29. Lovely tribute Jack W and good to hear from you, as usual.
Secondly, if you cae to read enough, you’ll notice that barly two days ago I had a fairly dismissive response to someone blaming Gordon for the death of 250 people in Iraq.
I have no time for a personalized witch hunt the man but if I think he screws up or his government screws up I’ll say so.
Its called having independence of thought rather than just towing a line.
Oh dear, I do hope I haven’t been the cause of any friction on this site, never my intention; honest!
33 Sorry bluemoon , been out to the shops to fill the fridge lol . Yes I agree that increased likelhood to vote amongst those who say they are going to vote later is also a factor in the Brown bounce . Yes this is likely to manifest itself least in local elections but you would expect to see at least some improvement in Labour % votes here from the rock bottom that they have been achieving in 2006 and 2007 but their vote is still falling in as many cases as it is showing a small recovery . I am not saying there has been no Brown bounce only that it is frothy and based amongst changes in support of those who are least likely to vote anyway .
It’s an age thing on my part but I continually sense the passing of a wartime generation who - left & right - had a broader more social view of the world.
Bill Deedes was one of these. The other who died recently was Jim McKeith - whose forensic work helped clear the B’ham 6. His obituary reminded me of the quiet quakers I have met who just get on and “do stuff” in a completely modest unself-congratulatory way. His parents were quakers.
You saw this when ever the pursuit of aged war criminals came up. The wartime generation itself - Healey, Heath and Carrington all wanted to forgive and forget.
45. ‘independence of thought’? very unfair to trouble Roger with difficult concepts like that.
A left-wing friend who knew Bill Deedes personally calls him a “a charming, honest man”, which fits with Jack’s touching tribute.
33 - if more people who support Labour but didn’t vote last time now choose to do so, the interesting question is “where are these people?”
Presumably a very low proportion of them live in marginals as turnout is already, understandably, higher there than in a seat like Easington or Barnsley Central - so if the turnout in seats like thouse increase, and slaps another few thousand on Labour’s majority (and perhaps an increased turnout brings down Tory majorities in Ashford and Henley then so what? If, however, the Labour vote increases markedly in Shipley, Finchley, Pudsey etc. then the effect will be worse for the Tories
That’s the problem with UNS - it’s bollocks, but it’s the best we have
If the consensus amongst you experts is that they are unlikely to vote next time you are saying that 60% turn out is the new benchmark norm rather than 75% it was pre-97.
Personnally I see that as a problem for democratic legitimacy
46. Par for the course on pb.com Coldstone, as you no doubt know. Accusations fly fairly often. I’m just naturally blunt and willing to take on a lamp post if I think I’m right and the lamp post is wrong.
Its not as if its real guns pointing at heads, that is a bit more scary.
Anyway, Roger has had way worse a reaction than that in his day…as he sits in front of high performance laptop with his very expensive housecoat both made by very poor people from the Far East……
0/T Great tennis bet for tonight in the semifinals of the Cincinatti Masters. James Blake to beat Nikolay Davydenko @ 5/6 with http://www.skybet.com or http://www.bluesq.com.
Blake has won all 5 matches again Davyenko winning 11 of the 13 sets they’ve played. Davydenko has yet to reach a final in 2007 whereas Blake was won Sydney and was runner-up at Delray Beach and Los Angeles. Blake has the home crowd and has the better hard court form. Clear value here. I’ve also taken the 9/4 with Skybet on a straight sets Blake win.
49. Back from your holidays Scallywag? Surely you found time to come up with more interesting usernames than ‘Woodentop’?
51. “Presumably a very low proportion of them live in marginals as turnout is already, understandably, higher there than in a seat like Easington or Barnsley Central - so if the turnout in seats like thouse increase”
IIRC the best local byelections increase since Brown’s takeover have been in wards that are in Lab safe seats. In some cases it’s also due to local circumstances, but if this trend continues in the coming months (so when we would have a better sample) it can be interesting
“Labour % votes here from the rock bottom that they have been achieving in 2006 and 2007 but their vote is still falling ”
I noticed how Lab generally continues to fall in wards where they’re third, especially if they’re in not Lab held constituencies. It’s probably due to almost total lack of organization in those areas. One potential long term effect of Lab losses in 2006/07 at local level is to have left constituencies with almost no Lab councillors and if this effects CLPs activity and organization on the ground, it can be damagining in the medium term in those areas
54. Taken, Thanks.
51 Not necessarily. If we’re talking about reasonably motivated Labour voters who abstained in 2001 out of protest at the Iraq war, they could be anywhere in the country. If they’re just marginal voters who identify themselves as broadly Labour but now say they are more likely to vote Labour well I’m not sure where they live. I doubt ICM do either.
If we’re going to look at by elections to gauge the GB bounce I’d like to see examples of two party marginals because they would probably give the most interesting data.
58. I doubt there have been nearly enough in recent weeks to provide a meaningful sample.
“Blake has won all 5 matches again Davyenko winning 11 of the 13 sets they’ve played. Davydenko has yet to reach a final in 2007 whereas Blake was won Sydney and was runner-up at Delray Beach and Los Angeles. Blake has the home crowd and has the better hard court form. Clear value here. I’ve also taken the 9/4 with Skybet on a straight sets Blake win.”
Kinda depends on whether Davydenko is trying though, doesn’t it?
58.” I’d like to see examples of two party marginals because they would probably give the most interesting data.”
local byelections in Lab/Con marginal wards?
I think we should go back to June 28th to find some of them
There was in Nuneaton and Bedworth BC. Con defending the seat, in 2006 Lab won 42.9% to 38.4%. In the byelection Lab held the seat, with BNP second and the Tories pushed into third. The trend mirrors the one seen in another byelection in the area in early 2007.
On the same day there was a byelection in Milton Keynes. 2006 result: Lab 42.9 Con 37.5. Byelection: Lab 43.8, Con 36.1
There some interesting ones in the near future: on Sept 20 one in Birmingham: the tories won the ward with a 6% majority last May
54 Taken. Thanks Henry.
What was the outcome of that Davydenko/Betfair thing? I don’t follow tennis much but it seemed to me the Russian was caught fair and square. How have the tennis authorities reacted?
I’ve just heard Michael White be adament that Gordon Brown wopn’t call an election till ‘09. I think he’s got to be right.
53. Yokel. “Anyway, Roger has had way worse a reaction than that in his day…as he sits in front of high performance laptop with his very expensive housecoat both made by very poor people from the Far East……”
As long as you know what you’re talking about…….
63. Where did you hear this Roger?
Andrea. I think June 28 might be too early to capture the GB bounce. The by election in Birmingham will be interesting, as you say. I presume both sides will try hard. I think the Tories would stay the largest group if they lost or am I wrong?
60.& 62. I’m not sure what the outcome has been of that incident. There are no news reports as to who Davydenko is backing tonight, though I’m sure he’ll agree Blake is good value.
St John. Radio 4. He was in a discussion with Peter Hitchens Nick Cohen and another. His arguments were persuasive.
I believe the Brown bounce is three main factors:
(1) Labour supporters becoming enthused and returning after not voting or going Lib Dem last time.
(2) A very large chunk of apathetic voters who thought that Brown was going to be awful, but after see him showing concern for floods, F&M etc, and being less pally with Bush are now thinking “he’s alright actually”.
(3) Conservative voters currently being unenthused.
(1) will no doubt remain, no matter when the election is.
(2) will have a minority remain, but I suspect as the feeling of relief wears off, and as news stories on goverment problems remind people that Brown has been a key player in the last ten years, many will back Cameron because they want a real change. Note, this isn’t because Brown has done anything incredibly awful (although he’s clearly made mistakes), its just par for the course of ten years in government.
(3) would definitely respond to an election campaign. While many Conservatives aren’t sure about Cameron, when faced between the choice of him and Brown the will turn out.
http://timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/columnists/article2104562.ece
Excellent article on Blair and Brown’s authoritarianism.
63. I do my best…..and if that isnt good enough i blame Thacther’s Britain….
63. I do my best…..and if that isnt good enough blame Thacther’s Britain….
Effin internet connection….
Lab performance in local byelections since June 29:
Milton Keynes: +0.9 (last fought 2006)
Nuneaton and Bedworth -2.4 (2006)
Pendle +5.2 (2007)
Sandwell +6.8 (2007)
Wigan +16.4 (2007)
Gateshead +7.7 (2007)
North Tyneside +2.3 (2007)
Oldham +4.7 (2007)
Camden +3 (2006)
Hounslow +2.1 (2006)
Kent CC -12.5 (2005)
Newcastle Under Lyme -2.9 (2007)
Rotherham -1.5 (2007)
Staffordshire CC -13.9 (2005)
Ealing: -2.9 (2006)
Ipswich +3.5 (2007)
Rushmoor -1.7 (2007)
Swansea +11.5 (2004)
Gosport -19.8 (2007)
Tower Hamlets +9.2 (2006)
Elmbridge -2.2 (2007)
+ add yesterday’s ones
Naturally in some of them there’re special circumstances..for ex the CC ones were fought in 2005 on a GE turnout.
In some cases they were caused by resignations after some scandals (IIRC Sandwell (Con), Wigan (LD), Swansea (Lab) and Gosport (Lab)).
In Swansea there was a strong Indy in 2004 and not this time (since she was elected last time) and so it was easier to go up.
And finally Lab increase (that can depend on the method to calculate % in a 3 members ward) in Camden resulted into a loss to LDs, whilst Lab drop in Nuneaton and Rushmoor resulted into gains for Labour
More ammunition for the Conservatives regarding the UK economy.
They should be targeting Mr Darling,the Chancellor.
Wake up Mr Cameron please!!!
Bank pulls speech to quell instability
By Edmund “Eddy” Conway, Economics Editor
Last Updated: 11:56pm BST 17/08/2007
The Bank of England has decided to maintain
silence in the face of market instability
The Bank of England has taken the unusual step of withholding a speech by a key executive for fear of adding to market insecurity.
It had been planning to release a speech by its financial stability chief Nigel Jenkinson to fellow central bankers on Monday, but has pulled its publication at the last minute.
The revelation is the latest evidence of the Bank’s pointed decision to maintain silence in the face of the market instability.
What is it that Gordon does not want the world to hear? Perhaps they were going to copy Ben and be honest about the dire state of things? Brown must have read the speech, dropped his jaw, and given Merv a quick call.
I despair at Her Majesty’s Loyal Opposition
74. Lets just wait shall we Herbert?
O/T CITY AFFAIR
A fortnight ago I tipped this 3/1 winner which is owned by a syndicate in which a friend of mine, who is a pro backer, has the leading share. I have just spoken to him about the horse’s chances in the 2.50 at Bangor today. He thinks the horse is a 9/2 shot and since that is his current price, he will be having an interest bet and no more. He added however that the favorite, Tarkesar 7/2, is very opposable and there may therefore be some good value elsewhere in the race. He likes the looks of Look of Eagles 6/1, Chandlers Cross 12/1, and Solarias Quest 7/1, any of whom could cause an upset.
I have lots of other information about today’s racing but none of it strong enough for an ‘account’ (i.e. big!) bet. I pass it on with the usual wealth warning.
Bangor
1.45 Mud Monkey 4/5
4.00 Saif Sareea 16/1
5.10 NOT Bedouin Blue, maybe Danbury 8/1?
Ripon
5.00
76 (continued)
Ripon
5.00 Zomerlust 9/1
Newbury
2.10 Sharp Nephew 9/2
3.20 Wake Up Maggie 9/2 (but NOT if it rains)
5.00 Eau Good 8/1
Newmarket
2.25 Thunder Bay 7/2
And probably best of all - if it stays dry - Brinkmanship 8/1 in the 7.40 at Market Rasen. This horse comes from the same stable as City Affair, so I know it is in good form. It must however have decent ground so if it rains and comes up soft at MR, its chances are much reduced. Perhaps if you live in the area you can wait till near the off and see if the rain has held off before backing.
None of these suggestions come with any great confidence. If I back any myself, it will be to small stakes and only when I have checked out the prices nearer the off. I can confirm however that the information comes from sound sources, so if you want to have a small dabble, you’ve probably got a slight edge on the other punters.
Good luck and enjoy the racing.
(Apologies to the politicos for this digression.)
Bookmakers have stopped taking bets on Wendy Alexander as Scottish Lab leader
http://tinyurl.com/2jwtv5
76/77 Apologies - That should be Zomerlust in the 3.45 at Ripon, NOT the 5.00 (There is no 5.00!
)
71. Yokel. Most of us would like to think of ourselves as good political pundits and some on here (Jack W Mike S) are. Others (like me) aren’t nearly as good as we think we are and are wrong at least as often as we’re right. Most though accept our limitations with good grace.
You just don’t happen to be one of them.
Actually the real blame for this week’s chaos should be laid at the right doors - Greenspan, the People’s Bank of China, and the Japanese Mininstry of Finance (and a few other lesser players). Had they not been flooding the world with liquidity this bubble would never have happened in the first place.
It would be fair to say Western governments have done almost nothing to stop it… mostly due to political short-termism as the medicine was always going to be unpleasant and waiting for the market to destroy the paper money never works. It’s a complicated case to sell to the electorate though - is Osborne up to the task?
Vince Cable to his credit has been droning on about the debt bubble for a few years - but being a LD he will be used to having to wait for history to prove him right.
Roger, there are some very astute observers on this site, and Yokel’s one of them.
82.
He certainly on the right.
81 - I think the question for the government is as in the Guardian article above. Have they made the country over-reliant on the City and Property for our future prosperity?
Well speaking as one of those mathematicians turned city punters I think Elliot has a point… though it is not true to say that mathematicians outside the UK don’t want to work in financial sercives at the expense of purer discliplines. It is a mixed blessing we have the world’s premier international financial centre in our country but there isn’t anyone who wouldn’t gladly swap.
Certainly Germany and France have given it their best shot and failed, and nobody outside the European time zone really has a chance to start with.
84. So we should limit the growth of successful areas of the economy so that we don’t become “overdependent”?
The warning signs about hedge funds have been there a long time. Why did Gordon Brown do absolutely nothing about it, other than award hugely beneficial tax breaks to highly leveraged investors?
Gordon? Where are you Gordon?
Well done Peter , City Affair did it again , another nice meal out tonight .
Re 78 LONG URLs - When you are pasting long URLs like this can you use TinyURL.com to convert it instantly into something much smaller.
mike smithson @ 89 — are you sure tinyurl is a good idea? It makes it impossible to see where the link is going.
Stefan Tymkewycz MSP (SNP) to step down to concentrate in being a local councillor. He was a list MSP and he will be replaced by Shirley-Anne Somerville
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/scotland/edinburgh_and_east/6953088.stm
90
Not if you add it to your clipboard when requested.
Some services, like shorl
http://shorl.com/
allow one to see the full link for a few seconds before you’re directed to the site.
Some services, like shorl
http://shorl.com/
allow one to see the full link for a few seconds before you’re directed to the site.
ok, ok, I will use this shorl
http://shorl.com/dripobralynyje
80. If thats the worst you can say Roger, I can sleep without a second thought. I don’t need to be an expert, simply know and understand enough to make cash out of it. Having said that you are free to express your opinion, as I am mine. Getting shot at for it and shooting at others for theirs is all a part of it.
83. Its not illegal yet is it? Is it that European treaty thingy, whatever its called.
There you go Roger, theres your point proven, to hell if I can remember the name of that thingy.
Or perhaps people could just use basic html.
“Or perhaps people could just use basic html. ”
erm, what is it?
@ Andrea: Sorry, this is totally off topic, but back to the Scottish question of a couple of days ago.
Thanks for reposting the info on vulnerable Scottish seats. I haven’t looked closely at the figures myself, but what you say confirms my general sense that rumours of the number of Labour Westminster seats vulnerable to the SNP are greatly exaggerated. The problem is that the SNP are starting from a very low base, as the Lib Dems did so well in Scotland in 2005, and the SNP saved all their money for Holyrood (wisely, as the event proved). So though I’d imagine some seats are vulnerable (certainly Dundee West), the vulnerability is not nearly as great as the recent poll might suggest. The Lib Dems and SNP may cancel each other out in many seats, as both try to present themselves as the natural alternative to Labour.
The battle for the Scottish rural seats (esp. Borders & Dunf. & Galloway seats) will be fascinating, though.
The problem is not what has been done previously in terms of UK credit policy. This is a global issue. Policy here could perhaps worsen the situation the UK vis a vis other economies in the event of a global downturn or may actually help buffer the economy. At the end of the day though they cant stop the issue in a world of global trade, only help nurse it along one way or the other.
Its also past history.
The issue now is, if there is going to be a downturn affecting the UK economy, is whether Gordon has during his recently ended tenure at the Treasury has allowed for room to manouvere and for measures to help mitigate those effects and stimulate the economy to help a) soften the blow and b)come out of the downturn as quickly as possible given global conditions and in good shape. Worse, could we be in a position where government is forced to borrow or tax considerably more in the face of a downturn or make Public Sector spending cuts or a mix of all 3.
The BoE will do its business with interest rates but there are other measures that governments can take. The question is can they be taken?
That is what we wait to see. The evidence is though that a number of major economies are on the slow, not least the US. That will have knock on effects on the wider global economy and we cant avoid that no matter who is in government.
99. ” The problem is that the SNP are starting from a very low base, as the Lib Dems did so well in Scotland in 2005″
Exactly. The lack of Lab-SNP marginals is due to their 2005 not so brilliant performance in many seats. The good 2005 LD performance also allowed LDs to pass SNP in some seats and take second place at Westminster level making things a bit more complex in those areas(In 2005 Lab held seats SNP is second in 18 of them, in 2001 it was second in 27 of them)
I would expect SNP to cut many Lab majorities at the moment, but many seats would stay Lab even after a good 8% swing
“The battle for the Scottish rural seats (esp. Borders & Dunf. & Galloway seats) will be fascinating, though”
yup, Dunfies & Galloway in terms of Lab/Con battle, after May Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk in terms of LD/Con fights and the SNP/Con battles in Perth and Angus (for ex in Perth SNP increased its majority last May but the seat didn’t become safe and the tories are still there)
98 - Whenever you want to type a web address do the following(with back and forward arrows instead of open and closed brackets):
(a href=”http://www.guardian.co.uk”)The Guardian(/a)
The Guardian
100 Worse, could we be in a position where government is forced to borrow or tax considerably more in the face of a downturn or make Public Sector spending cuts or a mix of all 3.
Could we - we sure could! And will, be, I reckon.
Keynesian macroeconomics taught that during a period of economic growth, period A, Governments should put money away in order to provide for the tough times of economic recession, period B. In other words use the Treasury levers to smooth everything out.
Perhaps Brownsian economics will be labelled anti-Keynesian, as he appears to have done the direct opposite during period A. Some might describe the technical term for the situation the country’s finances will be in in a couple of years time as “oh cripes, we’re kucked” or something similar.
101. Andrea: “and the SNP/Con battles in Perth and Angus (for ex in Perth SNP increased its majority last May but the seat didn’t become safe and the tories are still there)”
Andrea, note that most of the strongest Tory areas in the (Scottish Parliament) Perth seat are in the (Westminster) Ochil & South Perthshire seat. Perth and the Carse of Gowrie, which are in both (SP) Perth and (Westminster) Perth & North Perthshire are better than average for the SNP.
The Lib Dems in Scotland are the ones to watch for the next GE. It’s possible their vote could collapse here, especially if the GE happens soon, between SNP resurgance, Brown not being Blair, Nichol Stephen being seen as a numpty, and Ming not being Bonnie Prince Charlie. If so, that could have some interesting effects on the vote across the other parties, possibly even bringing about a sizeable swing to Labour in some seats, despite the swing away from them at Holyrood. And maybe even winning the Tories another seat or two.
However, it’s also possible the Lib Dem vote may hold up reasonably well despite all this. Brown is not exactly adored in Scotland: there is an element of ‘I kent his faither’ in attitudes to him here, and the Trident issue plays big. Ming is not seen as useless in Scotland as he is in bits of England, and Lib Dems are a good home for English people here mistrustful of the SNP but not keen on Labour either. Lib Dem successes in Scotland have tended very much to be down to the local parties anyway. Nicol Stephen is useless, but as long as he was kept out of the way and Ming appeared from time to time, Charlie Kennedy could be wheeled out enough to get a feel-good factor going and the rest be left to ‘underdog’ politics, which play very well here.
Advice to Tories: keep Cameron as far away from Scotland as you possibly can come the next election. He is death here. Use respected local figures and you may benefit in one or two areas from any Lib Dem collapse.
“Advice to Tories: keep Cameron as far away from Scotland as you possibly can come the next election. He is death here. Use respected local figures and you may benefit in one or two areas from any Lib Dem collapse.”
I disagree, I would like him and a few others from the shadow cabinet to appear up here more often. It makes the news and pushes the Conservatives profile in the media, whether the comment is negative or positive we need to be making the news more often. Also think that if Nicol Stephen is invisible at the moment he must be hiding in the same place as Ming Campbell.
103.
Downturns happen, end of story. Are the levers available and properly effective though when downturns arrive to help soften the blow and aid recovery? You reckon no by the sounds of it and I agree they may not be.
I think a downturn is due and I’m seeing a bit of evidence in my own industry that things are getting tighter for many customers
In short I’m worried, and it is worried, that the levers wont be there. In one capacity or another I’m involved in small businesses and its hard enough as it is to get it right without a downturn and that downturn being made all the more difficult because government hasnt got any room to help the economy in diffiult times.
105. I suspect the Lib Dem vote will hold up pretty well in Lib Dem-held seats in Scotland, most of which are pretty safe (I’d say only two 2005 Lib Dem seats are potentially at risk), and probably also in the handful of obvious target seats. If there is a big fall in the Lib Dem vote it’ll be in places where the party has vacillated between fourth and second in recent elections: places like Midlothian, say, or Glasgow Central, where the Lib Dems swept up the ‘none of the above’ vote in 2001, but where there’s little prospect of the party winning. In other words, it would be a bit like the 1992 result in Scotland: all seats held (albeit with reduced majorities), but major setbacks in no-hope seats.
I suspect that in a UK-wide campaign Stephen will be kept out of the limelight; I’m sure you’re right that most of the focus will be on Campbell, with Kennedy also attracting some media coverage. By the same token, in a UK-wide campaign it’s inevitable that the main focus will be on Cameron which, as you correctly say, will do the Scottish Tories no favours whatsoever.
106: I don’t know about the Shadow Cabinet in general- is there anyone from a rural, farming background on it? And you want older people who give a sense of having seen a bit of life, knowing what the world is all about and all that.
DC really does hit all the wrong buttons in the North. You have to realise that. I suspect he knows this (cf. ‘David Camerons Conservatives’ in ES v. ‘The Conservatives’ in Sedgfield).
It’s really impossible to scientifically predict which way the polls are going to go this month. But because it’s quiet here this afternoon and risking ridicule from the usual suspects I’ll have a go.
Once a month or six weeks I have lunch with four advertising friends who like most people have no interest in politics. When Cameron first became leader I posted on here that over lunch I had been surprised how much this apolitical quartet had gone off Blair and Labour and how mildly encouraging they found Cameron.
This Cameron appreciation seemed to grow over the months roughly in line with the Tory poll leads. About five weeks ago all this had changed. Gordon was neither hero nor villain but Cameron was no longer up to it! And coincidentally the Tory poll lead was reversed
Yesterday we met again and I brought up the subject of politics. Brown was still an unknown quantity but Cameron-perhaps because of his recent low profile-was no longer villain. He was now ‘OK’.
So on my completely unscientific focus group I predict that Cameron’s Tories will gain ground this month and expect at least one poll to show as few as three ‘Gordons’.
104. yes, sorry, I forgot that Perth and North Pertshire contains a very sizeable part of Tayside North. It’s 61% of the Holyrood’s Perth and 50% of the Holyrood’s Tayside North.
103. Economics lesson for beginners.
Brown: No Cash Left.
Redwood: Lurch Right.
107.That is my concern at the moment Yokel. Being more than a wee bit partisan here, I would also add that a Chancellor who was at great pains to take the credit for every bit of economic success over the last 10 years, has only himself to blame if voters then associate any downward turn or any personal financial pain with him as well.
Already noticing some attempts by posters in the blogsphere to try and compare what is going on now with previous recessions along the lines of, “that was much worse or we have not reached the same figures we saw then”.
A while ago I remember a similar attempt to try and use the casualty figures from the Falklands war in a similar cynical attempt to downplay what is happening now in Iraq and Afghanistan.
Sara at 105. Interesting post. What does “I kent his faither” mean?
108. “If there is a big fall in the Lib Dem vote it’ll be in places where the party has vacillated between fourth and second in recent elections”
I find East Lothian interesting…in 2005 GE Lab held with a 16.6% majority over LDs. Not a close marginal, but not unwinnable for LDs either. The Lab incumbent seems pretty weak and gaffe prone (and before someone argue against AWS, she won an open shortlist in 2001). Last May at Holyrood Lab won it with a 7.1% maj over SNP: the Westminster seat is all the Holryood seat +4 wards from Edinburgh East & Musselburgh (where SNP performed very well too). I suppose both parties can try and present as the main challenger (war of barcharts).
114. “I kent his faither” (or “Ah kent his faither”) = “I knew his father”. To ken is to know in Scots.
Re the economy: as a good representative of people who doesn’t really understand economics I think this hasn’t played as badly for Brown as it might have done- so far, anyway.
The news reports left one firmly of the view that it was all the fault of America, together with the Far East economies being too closely tied to the dollar. The complete lack of comment/intervention from Britain at the moment has something of a look of ‘we’re keeping our heads while all around are losing theirs’.
Now, of course, if things get really bad this could backfire- but at the moment, I feel mildly reassured- the closing news reports last night were surprisingly upbeat. (Yes, I know this could well be just the beginning.)
109. ‘David Camerons Conservatives’ was a joke.
110. I hope you are wrong though not on principle. I’m looking for a Tory seat fall on the spreads before buying in again and a decent Labour lead being maintained should hopefully shift the market further downward as some think the lead is more solid. The Tories won’t be so abject forever as they are at the moment but another few days is ok.
103. Actually the opposite of Keynesianism is to keep a balanced budget and use interest rates to control the economy (Keynes thought investment was unrelated to the current state of the economy and depended on ‘animal spirits’). Brown isn’t Keynesian or anti-Keynesian. He’s simply borrow and spend.
116. Sorry, I should have added that the meaning that lies behind the phrase is something like “he may think he’s done very well for himself, but I knew his father and he’s no better than the rest of us really, so he should stop giving the impression that he is”. Or something along those lines. A sociologist might call it a commingling of community insularity and anti-upward mobility.
109.Sara, he went down quite well up here when he visited the drug rehabilitation centre, and he got a fair wind from the Scottish media on the whole.
The Conservative brand has been death up here for nearly 20 years and its about time someone tried to take that on and change it. We may have a Scottish party which seeks a much more independent identity, but we still need to be able to win a few Westminster seats at a GE. Cameron should not be scared to come up and engage with voters up here, especially those that vote Libdem!
Howard carried too much baggage from the previous government but Cameron does not, he is good with people and that comes through. Anyone who wants to be PM had better start building a relationship with Salmond, who seems to enjoy a good relationship with Goldie at the moment.
Start building the bridges now, bring in some of the ministers who are still in charge of business effecting Scotland like Liam Fox in shadow defence. Cameron needs to be seen to be trying to appeal to Scots now not when there is an election campaign in full swing which would rightly be perceived as opportunistic.
114: ‘I kent his faither’ syndrome is roughly the same as ‘a prophet is not without honour save in his own town’- i.e. because you know the town a famous person comes from, and know his background, he doesn’t impress you the way he does others. It’s also a common Irish syndrome- if he’s ‘one of us’ he can’t be anything that great, he’s just putting on airs. At its worst, its part of a culture of self-loathing (the so-called ‘Scottish cringe’); at its best, it’s an example of a natural egaitarianism and refusal to be easily impressed (’We’re all Jock Tamson’s bairns’ ‘A man’s a man for all that’ etc. etc.).
116. Thanks Aiden. Is “I kent his faither” a bad thing for Gordon or a good one?
120,122. Many thanks! If you learn something new every day that can’t be bad!
Chris D For what it is worth I’m not sure you’re right. As you know I have doubts about Goldie but she’s there and needs to be able to demonstrate her independence from London. She can’t do that if DC rolls up all the time. Scottish policies made for Scotland in Scotland; that’s got to be the watchword.
Also let’s face it DC’s appeal in Scotland is far less than in say Southern England. The etonian image gets in the way of him being seen as relevant to Scotland. On balance I don’t think he can stay away altogether but his visits should be few and far between IMHO.
122. “A child of the manse” as Polly Toynebee is so fond of saying goes down like a lead balloon up here.
123. Sara (105) reckons not. I think it’s more nuanced than that. Brown is hugely popular in Kirkcaldy itself; the fact that he sits for the seat where he grew up and is (was?) on the board of Raith Rovers goes down well. He’s less popular, and always has been, in those parts of the west of Scotland where, as one disillusioned Labour ex-Lord Provost of Glasgow put it, ambition is seen as a dirty word; expect plenty of blog posts to the Herald and Scotsman websites about how Brown has trimmed this, that and the other to gain acceptance in London, etc.
121: ‘Cameron needs to be seen to be trying to appeal to Scots now not when there is an election campaign in full swing which would rightly be perceived as opportunistic.’
I do take your point here, but he needs to be careful not to come across as patronising. He should make sure he isn’t seen as treading on Annabel Goldie’s toes, too. The ill-feeling between the Scottish and UK Tories is pretty much as bad as the ill-feeling between the Scottish and UK Labour parties (though obviously Wendy now has a chance to change that). Cameron should remember the rule ‘first