Who’ll be the PBC posters of 2006/7?
August 28th, 2007![computer_clipart[1].gif](http://politicalbetting.com/wp-content/uploads/2007/08/computer_clipart%5B1%5D.gif)
Your chance to nominate and vote
With the end of the holiday season and the September party conferences a new political year is about to start. But before the old one, 2006/07 finally closes I thought that it would be a good moment to celebrate those who have enriched our discussions, and in some cases helped us make winning bets, through their contributions to the site’s discussion threads during the past year.
Who, for you, has been the Poster of the Year? Who has consistently provided insights and contributed to our understanding of complex events and has added most to our discussions?
Politicalbetting would not be the site it is but for the thousands and thousands of comments that are posted here each week. Each day, I’ve worked out, there’s something like 30,000 words all of which has made this the site to understand what is happening not just in UK politics but overseas as well.
In the past twelve months we’ve had the dramatic US mid-term elections where against all the odds the Democrats won both houses. We’ve seen the fight for the French Presidency and we have been looking forward to next year’s White House race.
In the UK there’s been the dramatic ousting of Tony Blair and the whole Labour transition, the deputy leadership contest, the big changes in local councils in England and elections for the Cardiff and Edinburgh governments. And of course we had the July by elections.
There will be five categories:-
Politicalbetting.com Conservative Poster of the Year - for the Tory who has who has made the best contribution.
Politicalbetting.com Labour Poster of the Year - for the Labour poster who has who has made the best contribution.
Politicalbetting.com Lib Dem Poster of the Year - for the Lib Dem who has who has made the best contribution.
Politicalbetting.com Specialist Poster of the Year - for the person who has brought special knowledge to a particular area or activity.
Politicalbetting.com Poster of the Year - for the person who, overall, has made the most significant contributions during the period.
How the elections will work. Please record your nominations setting out your reasons on this thread. You can nominate more than one person in each section but please give reasons. This will form the basis of the short-lists that I will draw up.
Nominations will close at 8pm on Thursday and anonymous online voting will start on Friday morning. Voting will continue over the weekend. The winners will be announced next Monday
UPDATE NOTE The competition categories have been changed since this was published an hour ago.
On holiday from this weekend. I will be away from this Friday through to Monday September 17th enjoying the delights of the Basque country with my wife, Jacky. During that period Paul Maggs will be standing in as guest editor. Paul has played a key part on the site running our competitions and I am grateful that, once again, he has offered to take on the role to give me a break. If you have ideas for guest articles then please could you contact Paul ASAP here.
Mike Smithson
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I nominate JohnLoony because he is supremely brilliant and charismatic, always articulates and expresses the opinions of the masses of the people with his down-to-earth common sense, moderate opinions, tolerant and open-minded attitude, utterly supreme genius and insight. He always makes people think “that’s the answer to all of the world’s problems” or “that is surely the only way forward for humanity to march into a bright new future of happiness, prosperity and plenty”. Wherever he goes, whether it is in Croydon, Bromley or Southall, the local peasants and proletarians always greet him by spontaneously chanting in unison “We hail you, oh glorious and wise leader! We salute your supreme and utter brilliance! We see the light of truth due to your teachings, and we reject the false and degenerate miserablism of the Lib-Lab-Con-trick Parties!”
Do we need to wait until Friday for voting? Why bother voting anyway, when it is inevitable that there will only be one person to be nominated? By the way, an opinion poll from MILD (the Madeupname Institute for Loony Democracy) which is due to be published sometime in the next 1000 years will put the OMRLP on 150%, Labour on -10% and the Lib Dems on -40%.
Don’t know who is new and who’s not, but poster of the year by common acclamation must be Andrea.
Nick Palmer as specialist, for his insights into being an MP and the PLP.
And after the multi-Gordons how about a multi-poster award for Scally/red alternative/yellow peril/yawn/zzzz/etc etc for simply being the most posters?
Specialist poster - Nick Palmer MP - do i need an explanation?
Poster of the year - David Heardson (sorry about spelling) Always gives a reasonable and objective (as can be expected from soneone who is a declared supporter of a party) view. If every tory was like David they would be a lot lot closer to power.
Incidently Mike - why not break it down and have a subsection vote for best Labour poster, best tory / lib dem / other and independent?
UPDATE NOTE I’ve taken Red Flag’s advice and have changed the categories.
This morning I raise a glass to Henry G.
He guided us profitably through the Labour Deputy contest and his tennis tips are stunning, as evidenced this morning by Verdasco’s win in the US Open (4pts at 5/4).
Well done Henry, I nominate you as Labour and Tennis poster of the Year.
Conservative Poster of the Year - I agree with Red Flag: David Herdson.
Labour Poster of the Year - Red Flag’s contributions are perceptive and thoughtful, and I give a special mention to Roger for his persistence and reliability.
Lib Dem Poster of the Year - I nominate you, Mike!
Specialist Poster of the Year - Definitely Nick Palmer, but I’d like to award a mention in despatches (or should that be Legion d’PB?) to Chris (from Paris) for his insights on the French election.
Poster of the Year - Andrea, with an honourable mention for Jack W.
I’ll go with 6
Conservative, David
Labour, Red Flag
Specialist, Nick
Poster of the Year, Andrea, with a special mention to seant,(always inventive)
Libdem, has to be you Mike, (as I can’t think of another one)
I’ll go with 6
Conservative, David
Labour, Red Flag
Specialist, Nick
Poster of the Year, Andrea, with a special mention to seant.
Libdem, You Mike,(as I can’t think of another one)
Tory poster has to be Sean Fear. He’s always civilised and even when you disagree with him he has something interesting to say.
Labour poster - well where would we be without Roger but my nomination goes to HenryG who has consistently provided good information about what’s going on in the party.
Lib Dem - who knows and who really cares? But Stodge’s postings are always worth reading.
Specialist - Well there’s Andrea who is brilliant at digging out the facts; JackW when his health has been OK has been the backbone of the site and Peter the Punter for always reminding us that this is a betting site and for his first rate advice and information.
Poster of the Year overall - it has to be David Herdson who consistently has provided insight and understanding even though he is a Tory.
Please note that as I will be drawing up the shortlist for voting I cannot be a nominee - otherwise it would look really naff. What do you think we are running here - Blue Peter!
OT. Sorry!:-)
Lots of news this morning, though!
a. The lead story on the BBC new websie is that GB has said that British troops still have an important job to do in Iraq. The *implication* is no early withdrawal. Total hogwash, of course, and this isn’t only going to give the Shia’s more ammunition, but also the Lib Dems. If they can lay their hands on a weapon, of course, which isn’t guaranteed. It also makes October much less likely, as it means no clean break with Blair’s past Iraq blunders for Gordon.
b. In Australian newspaper The Age, esteemed columnist Michelle Grattan gives some telling information about John Howard’s own seat, Bennelong. This is the only one with a market on Betfair, and the price is still worth having. He looks like a gonner there too, though don’t bet your house on it. http://tinyurl.com/2a4zsg
Con: David Herdson
Lab: snowflake5
Lib: -
Spe: Peter the Punter
Best In Show: Andrea
11 Thanks Stephen.
Betfair now have markets on many (all?) individual Australian seats.
Bennelong is trading at 2.3.
Totally off thread, brighten your day, read the Daily Mash’s take on the, ‘Diana Thing’
http://tinyurl.com/39um59
13 Peter, yes, I realised that they’ve opened markets on many other seats (you’re right - not all, by a long way), but Bennelong is the only one with any appreciable activity, mainly as it’s been open for many months. The others are all more or less dormant.
Con: David Herdson
Lab: Nick Palmer
Lib: ColinW (his postings are so full of pith ;))
Specialist: Chris from Paris
Overall: Andrea
Are these elections to be conducted under the discredited FPTP system…or through ‘fair votes’? And are you going to be tediously conventional and just allow one person, one vote? Will there be a glittering Awards Ceremony where the emotional winners, choking back their tears (onion provided on request, will thank their mum and dad, cat (Nick P), peebee luvvies everywhere, Dave/Gordo/Ming etc…
16. John O. It will be a simple first past the post election if only becaause that is the only software I’ve been able to find on the net.
As to the glittering awards ceremony the Dorchester and the Savoy are booked. But we could have another PBC party later in the year - any ideas for sponsors?
17 Slightly off thread but I have had an email from Patrick Rock who was unable to attend the Book Launch party. He has suggested a Ruby Murray for anybody in London who is interested (or outside of London who can make it anyway.)
If you want to come along, drop me an email at arklebar@talktalk.net
Good god !! a Lib Dem run election and it’s not being fought under STV. Must be a first.
I off to phone Lord Ashcroft to beg some cash for my campaign to be PB’s ARSE Poster of the Year …… now, where are my bar charts …..
Con: David Herdson (Intelligent, informative, interesting)
Lab: Coldstone (not afraid to stir things up, without being provocative just for the sake of it. Long memory which he uses as a data bank to remind us that we really have seen it all before)
Lib: Stodge (for presenting a considered view of liberalism, and always in a friendly way)
Specialist: Chris from Paris (invaluable during the French elections. A star performer)
Overall: Andrea (A tremendous asset to PB.com by virtue of being able to give vital facts to a debate while it is still in progress, and to point out factual errors in the statements of anyone, regardless of ideology)
Special ‘Gotcha’ Award: Andy Cooke, June 9th 2007 in reply to Snowflake.
Snowflake had been criticising the Tories, claiming that their sums did not add up and they would have to make spending cuts elsewhere, or raise taxes. The thread then moved on to Europe, and Snowy defended planned increases of the UK contribution to EU funds of £3 billion.
Andy was on top form and replied:
“As an aside, your comment to the effect that to increase public spending you have to either cut something or raise taxes - how does that march with the increase of £3 bn or so in net EU contributions? Are we cutting something (if so, where?) or are we raising taxes?”
Nothing more was head from the illustrious Snowflake that evening!
Labour has to be Tyson though Henry G is always well informed.
Conservative is a crowdwd market. I enjoy Ted and Robin but it’s hard to ignore Sean Fear and David Herdson
Lib Dem. Stodge
Specialist has to be between Sean Fear Nick Palmer Chris from Paris and Andrea
Poster of the year has to be between Andrea JackW Peter the Punter and David Herdson
If you added an ‘off the wall’ poster life would be easier. That would go to Colin or the man with the beer blog
I’ll come back with a full list later.
Conservative
Sean Fear - always well argued, dispassionate and to the point.
Labour
Snowflake5 - machine gun responses (honourable mention for Roger for taking the flack in good part)
Lib Dem
I had a struggle to think of one - Stodge, for his kamikaze attacks on SeanT I guess
Other / independent
SeanT - I know he’s a Tory in denial - the quality of turn of phrase makes them worth reading. Just don’t talk about the war - I mean the EU
Specialist - Andrea - no question the uber-geek of politics
Poster of the year - Sean Fear for me. Informed (almost as well informed as Andreea in his area), and above all concise
Ranter of the Year - so many to choose from, but that Dickson chappie who only comes on when the SNP have a good news election story
Nick Palmer not to be included as he has an unfair advantage (insider trading?)
Having looked at Roger’s note above - being up against Andrea is a tough spot, but an honourable mention is needed for Chris from Paris’s stuff on the french elections
I also think Coldstone deserves a mention for the reasons given by Disraeli but like so many others I though he denied being Labour?
Conservative.
Steven Whaley. I find his reactions to events most enlightening - thoughtful and not the typical Tory headbanger.
Labour.
Snowflake, who puts her case together very well. Very persuasive and almost convincing. I think she is the Labour poster that our Tory friends fear most.
Lib Dem
Stodge. Again, dispassionate judgements, which bring a valuable perspective.
Specialist.
Peter the Punter (unless I am getting mixed up). I find his contributions about betting very useful, in a technical sense.
Overall
Roger. Who has kept going in the face of multiple adversity, and introduced new phrases into common usage. Indeed, I think the inspiration for the “ten Brown faces” really came from him.
How about a mention for the posters who really make this site live up to its name - i.e. the ones who have something consistently interesting to say about betting?
Peter the Punter, Caveman, Jan from Norway.
I see this is getting serious. Ok, how about…
Con - Hotly contested but David Herdson would want some beating. Sean Fear and Benedict the Blog also set a high standard.
Lab - Has to be NickP, but honorable mentions to Roger, for the stick he takes, and StJohn for good humour.
LD - Icarus and Innocent Abroad, although both a bit too reasonable for my tastes.
Specialists - This should really be split into sub-sections - for example:
Overseas - Chris from Paris
Ireland - Yokel
Literary - Sean (don’t mention the EU) T.
Abuse - ColinW
Poster of the Year - No contest. Andrea Parma. Book closed.
Firstly, thanks to all those who’ve said nice things about me. Please remember that this is only the nomination stage though - the voting is at the weekend
For my own nominations (and Mike did say we could nominate more than one):
Conservative (as I’ve been nominated, I hope this won’t look like trying to rig the field): Sean Fear, obviously, both for his Friday columns and the quality and civility of his general posts; SeanT (who isn’t technically a Tory but it’s the closest category), for his Rommel-like ability to make you admire his skill even as he lobs six inch linguistic shells at you
Labour: Nick P, both for his insight and his outstanding unflappability under extreme fire; Snowflake5 for her ability to back up any argument with a government statistic; Roger, who got his 10-point lead right and also did well with his Oscar tips; HenryG, both for his contribution during the Leadership election and also his focus on betting (always important).
Lib Dem: Mike (yes, I know he’s banned himself. Perhaps we should take the lead of the Roman senate when Octavian declared he wouldn’t allow his re-election as consul, and leave the position unfilled); Stodge if we have to nominate someone, and to be fair, he’s well worth nominating.
Other / unaligned (no category, but there should be): Andrea, whose research skills and intimate knowledge of every facet of the British Political scene are unsurpassed; Yokel, for a high standard of contribution and for top postings as ‘our man in NI’, Peter the Punter for general contribution, keeping at least one eye on the betting and doing a super job in organising the Book Launch Party; Jack W, for just being himself.
Specialist: NickP (as above), Peter the Punter (as above), Chris (from Paris) for contributions on the French elections; Sea Shanty Irish, whose posts on the American scene are already marking him/her as one of the best new members of the pbc community, Steven Phelps for his columns on the upcoming Australian elections; Jan from Norway whose posts are not only of good quality but include betting advice worth following.
Overall: Any of the above, although if for practical purposes things have to be slimmed down, I’d nominate Sean Fear, Nick P, Snowflake5, Andrea and Peter the Punter
Mike’s catagories are too formulaic perhaps. I would add
Best lateral thinker - StJohn - good example yesterday about how GB will have to say something soon about nthere not being an election
Best joker Jackw - (”Additional SOAMES weighting….”)
Best blatant self promotion - BW’s blog
Grumpiest old man - not the renamed Coldstone, Tapestry I think
As above - best tipster - I’m not a betting person, but viewed from the outside Caveman seems to have a good track record (sorry ptp). Shouldn’t Andrea have stats on who delivers the most “free money alerts” to the site
28. And Benedict White for the Conservative category. My fault for over-editing my previous post.
29
I’m grumpier than he is, I’ve got a certificate to prove it!
For those who think we should scrap corporation tax, why bother companies don’t pay it anyway.
http://tinyurl.com/2uctt8
29 John Wheatley - No apologies necessary, John. I agree with you about Caveman. I back his tips blind and nobody is better at spotting the arbs.
Incidentally, Sea Shanty Irish seems to have disappeared. I hope it’s only temporary. He/she has added spectacularly to our understanding of US politics.
Con : Sear Fear
Lab : Andrea
LD : Abstaining
Specialist : Chris from Paris
POTY : SeanT for winding up the lefties with facts they dont like.
[27] Peter, I am not a Liberal Democrat! However, I will try to be less reasonable in future
34 Oops.
Apologies, Innocent. I’m afraid I tend to assume that all reasonable people must be LDs unless stated otherwise.
Oh, and may I suggest to Our Genial Host that if he’s going to run a poll, he might as well run one on the political affiliations of posters? My impression is that it breaks down roughly Con 50%, Lab 20%, LD 20%, Others 10%, but that of course is based on weight of posts, not posters.
[35] Apology accepted - although I’ve an inkling that you have at least one previous offence to be taken into consideration
Tory: David Herdson for being invariably interesting and reasonable, Sean Fear for objective analysis, test for unswerving consistency and for dissing seanT (hey, I get to choose why I vote)
LibDem: Stodge, for thoughtful analyses
Labour: Red Flag for enthusiasm without bile, a trick too few of us manage, roger for refusing to be put down, and snowflake5 for taking on any detailed argument
Those are the ones I always read and keep me coming back to the site.
Specialist: Peter the Punter and Jan from Norway for betting expertise, JackW for the Lords and our foreign correspondents Chris and Alexander for their expert areas.
Poster of the year: andrea, of course. It’s not fair, he needs a category of his own.
con- definitely sean fear for his very dry humour and wit, honesty and ability to see thingts objectively, and his always well written Friday thingies
lab- Roger gets my vote here- behind his partisan posting is much humour, self deprecation, and he writes beautifully, although snowflake5 would be a close 2nd for sheer stubborness
lib dem- ughmmm…slightly stuck on this one- could jack w or peter the punter qualify as LD’s- I think both of them should be shortlisted for something
independent- as per Lib Dem- perhaps you could interchange peter the punter with jack w depending on which one was less averse to being sullied with a LD nomination
specialist- Chris from Paris- although from time to time he let his liking for the right slightly colour the tone of his posts
and poster of the year- without a shadow of a doubt has to be JAN from NORWAY. This site is about betting, right- Jan is by far the best political tipster and pundit who comes here- people following Jan’s advice word for word would be alot wealthier.
Can we not have a honorary lifetime acheivement award for Andrea? Just a thought.
This is a tough one!
Con. Sean Fear and David Herdson.
Lab. Andrea, Nick Palmer, Henry G also think Chris Paul who does not post so often.
Libdem. Stodge.
Specalist. Andrea (Italy), Yokel (Ireland), Chris from Paris and Alexander Drake(Australia)
SeanT for his contributions on travel (don’t mention the war, EU or lefties).
Andrea needs his own special award for being able to find interesting/obscure facts at great speed, this has settled many an argument on the site.
Tory: Marcus Wood (For being fun)
)
Labour: Nick Palmer (For putting up with alot of stick)
LibDem: Benedict White (
Specialist: Chris from Texas (Good stuff on Sarkozy)
Poster of the Year : JackW (Provides a bit of substance)
39 Thanks, Tyson.
Since I voted LD in the last three elections, I could hardly object! However, that was in Guildford and as UKPaul would testify, the alternatives were pretty grim. Now I’m back in my East London Heimat, I shall probably vote Labour, if only because the MP, Harry Cohen, is the type of hardworking backbencher I admire - and he was consistent in his opposition to the Iraq war.
Would I ever consider voting Conservative? Certainly, especially as the Party is rowing back to the centre ground. I would definitely prefer to vote for a good Tory in preference to a bad Labour or LD candidate.
And of course if John Loony stood here, he’d have to come into consideration.
Con: Sean Fear, Benedict, David Herdson
Lab: Nick Palmer, Red Flag, Roger, Tyson
LD: Stodge, Icarus, Mark Senior
Specialist: Peter the Punter, Jan from Norway
Poster of the year: Andrea, Jack W, Sean T (the trio that guarantees that almost all threads on this site are lively and fun to read)
OK, I’ll have a go.
Partisan posters (criteria: do they make their party seem more attractive? do they believe political education is a good thing in itself?)
Conservative: David Herdson
Labour: Nick Palmer MP
Liberal Democrat: (not awarded)
Others:
Specialist: Andrea, for being the only person in the world who can be relied upon to tell us that both defeated candidates in the Much Slithering-in-the-Mire council by-election were one-legged bearded l*sbians…
Poster of the Year: it has to be Jack W’s A.R.S.E.
Tory: ColinW
Labour: Roger
Lib Dem: Stodge
Specialist: seanT (EU sub division)
Poster of the Year: David Herdson
Sorry to break all teh nominations:
PtP
Howlin does not run.
11. Stephen, some commentary on seat-by-seat betting, as well as showing the overwhelming weight of money is on Rudd:
http://tinyurl.com/yqtkhh
I would urge caution to punters betting against John Howard in Bennelong. I think the Liberal Party will divert substantial resources to Bennelong to protect him, if necessary.
Con: Sean Fear
LD: Stodge
Labour: Andrea’s Labour right?
Specialist: Chris from Paris
Overall: David Herdson
Con: Sean Fear
Lab: Nick Palmer
Lib: Mark Senior
Specialist: Andrea
Overall: JackW
Without Jack, the site would not be the same
[47] Well, I’m glad to see that Sid Sidebottom is a Labor candidate Down Under - with such a name he could hardly be anything else?
(Now Andrea will tell me he’s a she called Sidonie…)
Most consistently intelligent - yokel
… …
And finally, yes, it’s the very special Sir Geoffrey Howe award, a most coveted honour and the only one in the gift of our esteemed panel.
This year the Sir Geoffrey Howe award for services to political blandness will be presented by none other than Denis Healey. (eyebrows are raised all around the room)
The panel were at one in saying that no-one other than this year’s winner is able savage us like a dead sheep with quite such aplomb, time after time after time.
Of course - the Sir Geoffrey Howe award goes to none other than Nick Palmer MP.
I forgot Mark Senior. One of the most dogged and informed Lib Dem posters-Always short and to the point. It’s close between him and Stodge for the Lib Dem nomination but on second thoughts I’d go for Mark.
Conservative - Benedict White
Liberal - Stodge
Labour - Nick Palmer
Specialist - Andrea
Overall - David Herdson
47 Alexander - yes, the Liberals (Coalition) will no doubt throw a lot of resources into Bennelong, Howard’s seat. But if he’s going to lose, he’s going to lose. And of course, as Howard is having to spend a lot more time in his own seat, he is unable to travel around the rest of the country as much as he would like.
Labor have a formidable candidate in Maxine McKew. For the uninitiated, she is has been a broadcast journalist for the ABC (Australian Broadcasting Corporation) for over 30 years, and has won major awards. She knows her stuff backwards, is very intelligent, very astute, already lives in a neighbouring constituency so knows the area well, and most importantly will be going into the election with an opinion poll giving her a 55:45 advantage in the constituency over Howard, which indicates a swing way over the 5% needed by her to win.
Seeing as awards always have people nominating somebody nominated earlier as they can’t think of anything else, here’s a few who have hardly been mentioned (I think).
Lab - Stjohn
Con - tjm
LD - Augustus Carp, SBS
Independently minded (I know there wasn’t a category but there should be!) - Stonch
Specialist - Alexander Drake (Australia), Anthony Wells (polling)
Poster of the Year - Gladstone/Disraeli (for showing that party identification is not for life)
Nutter - Will L (& variants)
In general I prefer those who are passionate about what they stand for and are independent of spirit.
17 “As to the glittering awards ceremony …… we could have another PBC party later in the year - any ideas for sponsors?”
Yes, Betfair of course - they owe you Mike, big time! Given the number of races they sponsor each year, I’m sure they could afford to put their hand into the corporate pocket to pay towards a bun fight for pb.comers - they might even learn a thing or two about political betting in the process.
Conservative- David Herdson,Sean Fear
liberal-Stodge
Labour - Brit spin,BallyEric , Henry G
specialist-Andrea, Nick P, Jack W, Pete the Punter.
Overall-
Any of the four above but I think looking back that this has been Pete the Punters year. As a non better I find his friendly introductions to betting fascinating and he regularly has a positive effect on threads often resuscitating what seems to have descended into factional shouting.
One reason I’ve come to this site again and again is for the quality of info and I think this is an overlooked aspect of Jack W’s post’s.
If you pay enough attention to his ARSE that is:-)
53 Henry - Thanks for tennis tip. I went to bed at two sets down. Nice surprise this morning!
Many thanks for the kind words.
My nominations would be: Conservative, Punter : Labour, Richard ( Original), Lib Dem, Stodge: Specialist, Andrea: Overall, Yokel.
However, there are very many others who post here who I could have nominated for any one of those categories.
I assume multiple nominations are accepted and we need to recognise that the passionate partisans provide a good guide to form so while concurring with nominations of Sean, David, Benedict, Nick, Mark, Stodge, Andrea, Chris from Paris, Jack W etc:
Conservative: Test for sunny optimism
Labour: Roger for his mix of on message postings and personal sources (waiters, people on set etc) - his good humour edges it over Tyson
Liberal: Icarus for his unchanging anti-Tory lib demism,
Specialist: Snowflake5, for her specialist knowledge of what Ed Balls would post if he knew how
Overall: SeanT for real passion, honourable mention for Herbert Proper particularly since he has become less of a creature of the night
OK, here’s my nominations..
Specialist of the year: Nick Palmer, for his brilliant analysis of the EU Constitution and referendum issue, aptly summarised in his sentence:
“I believe in referenda as democratic instruments, and I am glad we will express our will collectively on the EU Constitution”.
Labour poster of the year: Nick Palmer, for voting AGAINST a referendum on the EU Constitution, ust a year before that passionate declaration of support for the idea. Such unswerving loyalty to the party, at the exense of principle, good sense, and political self respect, surely deserves credit.
Conservative post of the year: Nick Palmer, for making that dedicated and principled stand in favour of an EU referendum, just one year after he decided it was a totally rubbish idea. An ability to acknowledge the force of Tory arguments makes Nick a fine Conservative.
Lib Dem poster of the year: Nick Palmer, for changing his mind yet AGAIN and deciding that referedums WERE rubbish after all, and this ISN’T a Constitution, and doing it in a mumbly and incoherent way. Which is, let’s face it, not unlike Ming Campbell on a good day.
OK, here are my real thoughts.
Tory poster of the year: Honourable mention to the cogent David Herdson, but final prize to Sean Fear, for being dryly funny and courteously thoughtful - at the same time! An example to us all, well, me anyway.
Lib Dem poster of the year. I know we are not allowed to but I cravenly nominate Mike Smithson for managing to be fair and level headed and while still being FURIOUS about the Iraq war. If not Mike, then JackW for such long and loyal service, or the noble Peter the Punter, for coming in with obscure yet somehow calming racing tips from Haydock, just when it’s all getting too heated.
Labour Poster of the Year. A mention in despatches for NickP (yes!) for bringing real insight (sometimes inadvertently) into the spinning maching that governs us. A silver medal for Snowflake for being endearingly eccentric and sometimes very accurate, in the face of great hostility. But the prize must go to Tyson for being funny, compassionate, angry, and prepared to admit laughable error when necessary. Vital in a leftie.
Specialist of the year: Andrea, natch.
58. Thanks. I thought there was a chance it could go all the way. Verdasco can be a slow starter but he plays a terrific return of serve game once his eye is in.
Jack W’s arse must surely get a special mention
61 Great post, Sean!
54. Stephen, you are right on all counts about how qualified Maxine is to run for Parliament. But it is a big, big ask to bet on an entrenched party leader losing their seat. I think a safer (and smarter) bet is on Labor winning seats that it lost in 1996, but are now a lot further up the Liberal side of the pendulum, such as Hughes (southwest Sydney) or Leichhardt (far north Queensland).
56. PfP, can I make an ambit claim for the first week of October for such a flash do, as I will be in London then. Just give me enough notice so I have time to pack my dinner jacket.
I’m wondering how many weeks of our election campaign I’ll be away for.
Just shows how many great posters there are on PBC.
Con. Close between Sean Fear, David Herdson, Benedict the Blog
Lab. Clear winner Nick Palmer. This is a political betting site and on Labour related betting matters Nick is always on the money. He is also happy to respond to direct enquiries from other bloggers which helpfully informs wiser betting decisions. Good 2nd place to Henry G.
Lib. No clear view.
Specialist. A very competitive field but it has to be Andrea. His esoteric knowledge of British political minutiae is outstanding. And always courteous.
A blanket finish for 2nd place with Peter the Punter by a short head from a fast finishing Caveman, Yokel, Jan from Norway and Chris from Paris.(Sounds like a racing commentary for the end of the Stewards Cup!)
Poster of the Year
No contest. Jack W. For his wit, bravery, resilience, specialist knowledge, rude aronymic polling analyses, aristocracy and of course his great great age.
Honourable mention to Sean T who can be hilarious as well as a complete t*ss*r.
62 Henry - Did you bet in running? V must have got to quite a price.
Mike, whilst the idea of annual poster awards is a good one, shouldn’t this perhaps be conducted by secret ballot to an email address to avoid any possible Eurovision Song Contest-type voting tendencies?
Having said that, many of the accompanying comments expressed above are great fun.
65 We can make it when we like, Alex. I’ll be away early Oct but that shouldn’t stop the party.
Dinner jacket? PBers usually wear Ermine for such occasions. If you haven’t already bought your Earldom, we know somebody who can sell you one cheap.
Nick Palmer - Lab (Broxtowe and pb.com South) or at least that is how it seems
Lab - Nick Palmer MP for dogma, spin and false modesty and peter from putney.
Con - SeanT, the last of the Wehrmacht, Sean Fear, David Herdson.
LD - Mike
Independently minded - JohnLoony.
Specialist - Peter the Punter.
Poster of the Year - Andrea and his man boobs.
Nutter - Roger and his arse (fart polls).
My nominations would be:
Tory:
David Herdson. Analysis always spot on, and always respectful to others.
Sean Fear. Friday articles impartial and insightful.
Labour:
HenryG. Provided some great insights into the Labour Deputy leadership contest (not to mention his tennis tips).
Roger. His amazing ability to see ANY political development as good for Gordon and bad for the Tories, and his ability not to get annoyed despite considerable provocation.
LibDem:
Stodge. Like David Herdson, his analysis is always good.
ColinW. For his non-partisan, tolerant, respectful, and easy going nature.
Specialist:
Peter The Punter. Often easy to forget that this is a betting site, and PtP’s posts about the more technical side of betting are always useful.
Chris from Paris. For his analysis of the French Presidential election.
Poster of the Year:
David Herdson. As above.
Roger. As above.
Andrea. The fountain of all knowledge.
SeanT. The tormentor of the left.
Nick Palmer. For having the guts to post under his own name.
Conservative nominations: David Herdson, Sean Fear, tjm and Benedict.
Labour: red flag, HenryG
LD: stodge, SBS and ukpaul
Specialist: Peter the Punter, Chris from Paris, Jack W and seant for the best eloquent rants.
Overall: stodge.
(as an aside, my dream Cabinet would include all of the partisan posters that I’ve nominated. Discussions may get quite lively …)
65 I observe immigration from here to OZ running at its fastest rate since the ten pound poms in the 50’s, and that’s before the new immigration test which ahem favours those who speak English not sure how many new voters Howard needs……….
Still at this rate soon be enough to demand the return of Colonial rule and the immediate resumption in the transportation of British entrepreneurs (aka convicts), sensible policies for a happier Australia!
Oh hell, I forgot Andrea - under the specialist category.
75. under the specialist category - Man boobs?
Also mentioned in dispatches for their friendly banter, Peter from Putney, John Wheatley, Disraeli et al.
71 Many thanks for my sole nomination to date, but I fear this was intended for my near mamesake PtP.
(I will cherish it nonetheless)
74. Punter the financial district of the Sydney CBD looks like a Jermyn Street catalogue sometimes.
Can’t limit it to a single nomination for each category, so here are multiple nominees:
Conservative: SeanT simply because you can’t ignore him and he has by far the richest vocabularly and an admirable invective. Other nominees include David Herdson who is quite the most balanced and often thought-provoking poster. He often displays insight I couldn’t see myself. Benedict of course, simply for his self-effacing and un-prepossessing retiring nature (;-). I also enjoy Test for his unending optimism.
Labour - by far my favourite lefty is Roger (who should get 2 nominations, one with and one without a capital R) - for his views from the bunker which are almost inspiring and for his perserverance in political predictions until one finally came true. Nick Palmer is much respected for posting under his own name, and is almost without exception a gentleman. I hope he continues to post after the next general election (;-0). Snowy deserves special commendation for extreme use of statistics to prove how far the average trot has come in embracing market economics.
Lib Dem - Stodge is always one not to skip over. Honourable mentions to Augustus Carp and Mark Senior. ColinW’s Mum also for bringing up such a polite and respectful son.
Specialist - only one possible nominee in my book - Peter the Punter. PtP never passes an opportunity to pass on his knowledge on all things betting to novices and initiates. Andrea comes a close second for nano-second Googling & Wikipedia skills, tying with Sean Fear for his balanced (despite the occasional howls of bias from the lefties) and knowledgeable articles each Friday.
Overall poster. Taking aside the obvious (Mike Smithson for creating and running the site), the poster I most enjoy and look out for is JackW (he’s 104 you know). Thanks to him I know my ARSE from my elbow.
79 Have we uncovered Howard’s secret plan…… I wonder how many new citizens as opposed to migrants Oz gets. Be interesting if greater immigration from the mother country has a political impact. Since vast majority of British immigrants seem to head for Sydney as the only pace they’ve heard of, and if IIRC Sydney is stuffed to the gills with keymarginals
Conservative: Sean Fear, honourable mentions for David Herdson & Benedict
Lib Dem: Stodge, honourable mentions for SBS & Mark Senior
Labour: Tyson, honourable mentions for Roger and Red Flag
Specialist: Andrea, honourable mentions for Nick Palmer & Peter the Punter
Overall: Difficult… but I opt for Andrea if pushed
Labour - Nick Palmer
Tory - Sean Fear
LibDem - Mark Senior (I like his local election by election updates)
Specialist - Chris from Paris
~Overall - Andrea (easily)
OK, here’s my nominations:
Conservatives: David Herdson by a mile. If all Tories were like him they’d have a chance of winning. Fortunately for Labour they arn’t.
Labour: Nick Palmer for being a model of how an MP should conduct himself on the net. Roger, whose insights on image and marketing are usually spot on.
LibDem: Tyson, for being good-natured and being the LibDem Labour people like most.
Specialist: Andrea for managing to come up with detail on the most obscure electoral contests
Special Mention: SeanT, always lively, and when he’s not talking about the EU, he manages occasionally to be insightful!
Overall Poster of the Year: Has to be Roger for his Ten Gordons prediction. He was the only one who saw that coming (and this is a betting site after all).
85 - Is anyone else going to tell Snowy about her mistake?
86. ukpaul - Tyson has stated that he’s a LibDem - we had a discussion about it a couple of weeks ago.
Re SeanT - I know he’s not a declared Tory poster (and is often critical of the party) but he doesn’t fit neatly into any of the other categories.
There are loads of possibilities here but here goes. I’ll do this like my old school awards
Tory: Benedict: a man with a charitable soul and a blatant promotion of his blog that still marks him out as a good old free marketeer…thats a proper Tory is I ever saw one….Always cheery as well, breathing too much engine oil if you ask me.
Honorable mentions: David Herdson for consistency
Lib: UKpaul, for giving a damn and getting angry about it. I believe some people doubt his Lib Dem credentials but so what.
Honorable mentions: Stodge
Lab: Henry G. For not letting is political affiliation get in the way of good sense and pragmatism or making the most of the betting market. Also, considering my knoweldge of tennis goes as far as Wimbledon and about 5 players, priceless.
Honorable mention: Nick Palmer, If you look closely beyond the MP title (and his support for Peter Hain..) he understands his betting alright and takes the stick well.
Specialist: Talking through my pocket. Probably shared between Chris From Paris for his French election coverage and the work of Messrs Phelps & Drake for Australia. I made plenty out of one and know I’m about to make plenty out of the other as long as Rudd of Australian Labor isnt exposed as a serial killer or something.
Poster of the Year: Peter the Punter. Top bloke with his eye on the ball. Especially useful for those of us who dont always have our eye on whats going on. Even if I did once think he worked for a company that exported bouncy castles to Afghanistan….
Honorable Mentions for Caveman & Jan from Norway as well: The bets, the whole bets and nothing but the bets.
Honorable mention: For attendance and all round psephological two brainery: Andrea & Sean Fear.
87 - I know you hate lib dems Snowy, and can’t bring yourself to nominate one, but even tyson would admit that he’s a labour supporter (and probably to the left of most).
lab –roger,mainly for the stick he takes,which always brigns joy
lD-?
con-sean fear-always fair,knowledgable and funny
speciailist-peter the punter
overall-andrea
81 Are the coalition pro british and labor anti british or something?
I wonder what the ramifications of this exodus would be if it wasnt for the even larger amount of people coming to the UK (which sort of covers it)
85 - I never suspected Tyson was a closet Minger! He hid it so well… shurely shome mishtake?
Enjoying the slander - Tyson as a LibDem, Peter from Putney as Lsbour - welcome aboard, comrade! As for Stephen Phelps’ borrowed sheep stab, I know what he means (and it seems to have got up stench’s nose). A constituent once urged me to stand against Gordon for the leadership - I advised him that I’d be dubbed the ’stalking sheep’ candidate.
ukpaul: The only reason snowflake5 didnt get an “honourable mention” from me is because there is no way she will ever, ever, admit that she was wrong on anything at all…including the fact that Tyson is Labour not Lib Dem
o/t
Good stuff from Cameron today. He has started to put substance onto the broken society/crime theme in a way which should reassure the core vote at the same time as reaffirming our committment to long term societal changes to tackle the underlying causes of crime and social disintegration.
Should resonate well with the swing vote too. Labour and Brown have had 10 years to get to the root of the problem (remember “tough on crime, tough on the causes of crime”?) and have largely failed, having opted instead for the usual massive tax and spend spree.
Tory - Sean Fear, for an unflappably cool demeanour
Labour - Roger, for being Roger
Lib Dem - Stodge, for being the LD voice of reason
Specialist - SeanT, for fulminating so impressively against seemingly everything
Overall - Peter the Punter, for bets that keep me in beer money
95 - She has the tractor production statistics for the past 5 years to hand, which show demonstrably that Tyson is an uber-Minger.
92. Not exactly, although Liberals tend to be more instinctively comfortable defending most of the British traditions and conventions of Australian life - except the trade union movement.
You can see this most clearly on the republican issue. Labor’s ‘core vote’ is now an alliance of white collar public sector workers (particularly middle aged ones), and non-Anglo blue collar workers. The republic is a symbolic slap in the face of the ancien regime, which appeals to both groups, for different reasons. None of this registers with Liberal core voters (although there are of course Liberal republicans). If you really want to look at some interesting trends in Australian psephology, the figures on the AEC website on the republican referendum are fascinating reading.
As most UK migration to Australia these days is skilled migration (as opposed to the old ten pound poms) they tend to be tertiary educated, private sector workers - making them more likely to be Liberal voters in my opinion.
Another Lib Dem Minger:
http://www.thesun.co.uk/article/0,,2-2007390950,00.html
My votes:
Tory - SeanT, always makes me laugh.
LD - About the only LD I take note of is Mike, but he doesn’t count so it will have to be Mark Senior for never giving up.
Labour - Roger - the best advert for a change of Government.
Specialist - would be Peter the Punter but I don’t bet; so it’s Anthony Wells
Overall- Andrea - the best informed and most rational poster on here.
99 Cool, will have a look at the website. (I myself was very nearly Australian
)
What happens in 50-100 years though when Climate Change has made the UK like Australia, and Australia like the surface of Venus? Yer can’t all fit in here!
Marcus - that’s old news…
90. On the “Is Tyson a LibDem or not” here’s the thread in question:
http://politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2007/07/27/now-yougov-reports-a-9-lead/
the relevant posts by Tyson are 240 and 250.
240. 227-Disraeli- I am a natural liberal lefty who has always voted either LD or Green thinking I should vote Labour, but never been quite able to stomach the authoritarian leanings of the left, and more recently Labour’s foreign policy.
But I wholeheartedly support all the above LD policies, and the local income tax and 50% upper rate, and I like Ming more than ever other party leader. I still find the LD’s though faintly ridiculous, somehting which I cannot quite put my finger on.
by Tyson July 27th, 2007 at 3:46 pm
He expands on this further in post 250.
MBoy - you should know that I’m never wrong! I expect you and Robin Wiggs to be eating crow shortly!
Back to the day to day, but is this really so?
I thought we looking at about a 1/3rd of the figure quoted?
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/6966351.stm
Can anyone with decent knowledge suggest what size this bloc of MPs would be?
Thanks
99 Citizen Immigration is of course different from immigration. What are the relative figures. I mean if Sydney is getting many thousands of new first time Pom voters that could tip the balance in tight seats or not
99 Second thoughts maybe not. I imagine given their background they’d head for the better off areas of Sydney and other Oz cities which are probably more Liberal anyway, and not the sort of key blue collar marginals that will decide things
Was there a large amount of MPs who wanted a referendum in 2005 though? If not, why all of a sudden do they want one now? Or this some bizzare Labour spin tactic to try and encourage the Tories to campaign on Europe and make them think they can cause problems for Brown when really it makes them seem like a single issue party again and fall into the dreaded “Lurch to the Right” trap?
Or am I *way* over-analizing?!
Plenty of excellent posters from all sides of the political divide, but I’m on here principally for the betting opportunities and would like to nominate in no particular order:
Peter the Punter
Henry G
stjohn
Caveman
Jan from Norway
105. You are right to make that distinction. There was a time when UK migrants were least likely to take up citizenship, but that is changing. From an anecdotal perspective, I know of very few British migrants who change their minds and go back to the UK.
Punter I think the UK presence is more visible in Perth rather than Sydney - there are some Census Collection Districts in Perth (a couple of hundred households per CCD) where the UK born proportion of the population approaches one in two.
On balance though I don’t think (recent?) UK migrants will tip seats one way or another.
104, 107.
Would imagine it would be down around 30 by the time the whips got the thumbscrews out (ask Nick Palmer - he’s had his “education”)
He then says “Deep down I am old Labour with a libertarian spin.” He also admits he seems to being surprised to find that what he thought was lib demmery was not. I suppose it’s partly a result of all the pre-97 anti-tory positioning (and which was absolutely right and necessary) which led some to believe that, just because you are anti-one, then you must be pro the other. Those who grew up during Iraq will probably forever believe that lib dems are anti-labour, we both grew up during the Thatcher years and that may have similarly coloured opinions.
111. ukpaul, you are splitting hairs. He also says he supports all LibDem policies - like local income tax, and he likes Ming! No Labour person would ever say something like that. And he’s never been able to bring himself to vote Labour - that should tell you everything.
I understand your shock though, esp as you’ve been feuding with Tyson. It encapsulates the problems the LibDems have - not just facing both ways, but both extremes of the spectrum are in your party and at war with each other. If the LibDems are to make any sort of breakthrough they can’t be philosophically in conflict like that. But both you and Tyson have played your part in illuminating this for the rest of us - which is what PB is all about. I guess I should include you in my libDem nomination along with Tyson for that reason.
Tyson is from the part of North Oxford where I used to live where Labour and the Tories are almost totally dead and the only interesting fights are between the Greens and the LDs - and they HATE each other.
For Westminster elections there is almost only one choice - LD unless you want to let the Tories in.
109 One in two? That’s got shift things in Perth Seats unless they are rock solid one way or another. Longer term though, this influx looks like being god news for the Liberal regardless of Howard’s fate, a steady stream of people who are tilted towards them and will likely influence their kids the same way
Snowy at 105.
I think I’ll await Tyson’s decision on this one. I’ll then happily place him in my nomination for either Lab or LD poster, through mouthfuls of crow, followed by humble pie, of course!
Incidentally, since it has been raised, have you ever admitted to being wrong on anything?! My recollection, which may not be fair, accurate or complete, is that when someone counters one of your arguments with good old-fashioned fact, you disappear from the thread. Just wondering if you have any examples…
113 - In 97 I was in St Albans and lib dems seemed best placed to beat the tory candidate so I voted accordingly. Of course, Kerry Pollard won it for labour, so it goes to show how nobody knows anything when it comes to voter behaviour!
113 Sounds like Oxford East will be quite vicious next time then. Clearly Smith must have a good chance of making it thanks Tatchell. Westminster? The Tories have only the remotest of chances in Oxford West and Abingdon and no chance in Oxford East.What are you talking about?
BTW Any views on the Greens in Brighton. Seems a lot of well founded bitterness from their long time candidate’s supporters to the carpetbagger Lucas muscling in on his good work. That’s gotta work against them surely
re 112. At least the LDs did not support the illegal invasion of Iraq. When’s Labour going to apologise for that? When’s Gordon going to apologise for not stopping Tony, as only he could, in February 2003. That will, deservedly, cast a long shadow over your party for generations to come. Nobody had the guts to stand up to Tony.
115. I’ve admitted to being wrong plenty of times - just check the back threads. As for “disappearing from the thread” - I tend to post for an hour or two, and then leave - so if someone is responding after that, they are talking to empty space. Don’t know how the rest of you manage to be on here so often.
118. I agree that the Iraq war was wrong and I appreciate that the LDs joined the Labour rebels in trying to vote it down in Parliament. As to the rest, there was more at stake than just Iraq. There was the country to run and the world economy looking dodgy. Gordon resigning would have caused a shock to the economy and ordinary people would have been hurt. To be brutal about it, Iraq was the least important thing happening from a British point of view.
A Liberal from a century ago would have explained this sort of pragmatism to you, but LibDems now have no experience of this form of Political Triage. In fact I think many people who are LibDems have chosen that party precisely because they don’t want to get involved in the messy painful world of triage that modern governing is all about.
Many thanks for the kind words noted above.
I’ve so many nominations from the massses of excellent posters on PB that I’ve decided to demur, save one.
PB is quite simply a wonderous manifestation of the internet. A largely self regulating community of diverse individuals of many political affiliations and none.
PB is perhaps a strangely British institution with such a wealth of talent, knowledge and breathtaking insight that at times makes one chuckle and smile in admiration at how it was born, evolved, survived and flourished in the turbulent world of internet politics.
Accordingly and for the overall PB Poster of the Year I nominate :
The Political Betting Community.
Take a bow, you deserve it.
120. So Gordo resigning would have caused the global economy to collapse ?
Nurse - my sides.
Tory - 1st John O, 2nd Sean Fear, 3rd Benedict White
Labour - 1st Snowflake, 2nd No further candidates considered
Lib Dem - 1st Augustus Carp, 2nd= Tabman, Book Value, Cicero, Stodge, UK Paul, SBS, Mike Smithson, MBoy, Mark Senior, tpfkar, 3rd Colin W. Have I missed anyone?
Specialist - Jack W (I’m not voting for Andrea until he votes for me)
Politicalbetting.com Poster of the Year - 1st Peter the Punter, 2nd SeanT
121 I’ll drink to that, Jack.
In fact, I already have done. (hic)
“Specialist - Jack W (I’m not voting for Andrea until he votes for me)”
Corruption rearing its head again! Anyone want to buy a nomination?
119 Snowflake - “Don’t know how the rest of you manage to be on here so often.”
Some are retired, or semi-retired (like me) or have no job for some other reason. Some have jobs that fit well with periodic visits to the site.
Even when I’m busy, I make time to read and catch up. This is, after all, a betting site and if you are serious about your punting, as I am, you can hardly afford to miss a post. My profits from political betting this year amount to a significant sum, thanks in no small measure to my fellow posters on PB.com.
Here’s to The Political Betting Community, again. (hic,hic..)
116: Mike in 113 is talking about Oxford West and Abingdon, not Oxford East.
However, Mike: I know lots of people in that seat who are anti-Tory but still wouldn’t vote Lib Dem because of Evan Harris. (OK, I admit they’re all Catholics!)
126. I’ll drink to that. But later PtP. The sun isn’t anywhere near being over the yardarm yet.
125. I’ll buy you a pint
128 ‘Tis from were I’m lying, StJohn.
O/T A while back I posted an article on who could succeed Gordon Brown as Labour Leader. I just thought it worth mentioning that William Hill have just quoted me 33/1 for Ed Miliband to be the next Labour Leader which I’ve taken. It’s probably (hopefully!) a long while off but for those that don’t mind that, I think it’s very good value.
First of all I think he has a number of advantages over his brother David (who is 2/1) both politically and personality wise. He is also in the Cabinet and will prosper under Brown in the next few years. If you work on the assumption (as I do) that when Brown goes he’ll want a Brownite successor, Ed Miliband looks better placed than his Blairite brother. I think he’s a much better communicator and TV performer than Ed Balls. He has the advantage of being English and representing an English seat - Doug Alexander will not be fancying his chances much at the moment. Regardless of whether you think we can elect two Scottish Labour leaders in a row, who knows what the Scottish constitutional dynamics will be by then. Another potential Brownite candidate could be Yvette Cooper. She’s 20/1 but isn’t formally in the Cabinet and may not have the highest ambition.
If you are to take these long-term bets they have to be very good value to be worthwhile. I think there’s a reasonably good chance that Ed Miliband could become the Brownite candidate to replace Brown in a few years time and would be a short price. 33/1 now is worth taking. I think it’s telephone bets only at this point (0800 5873920) but this looks like another stand-out price from Hills. If you are inclined to take ante-post bets as I am then you could do a lot worse than this.
129 - Nothing less than cold hard cash please (in brown envelopes)!
127 What have they got against Evan Harris then?
My Noms:
Conservative: Sean Fear
Labour: Nick Palmer
Liberal Democrat: I think Mike is a special case, so Tabman, Book Value, Augustus Carp, and tpfkar
Specialist: Andrea- assuming he can be proven to be a human and not an Italian computer programme, SeanT for pure and often hilarious bile, JackW for charm and wit, Chris (from Paris) for being interesting
PBC poster of the year: SeanT
96. Don’t agree about Dave and crime, Robin Wiggs. Dave is reassuring his core vote with stopping appeals against school expulsions [though if he knew anything about state