Labour’s YouGov lead down a touch to 8%
August 31st, 2007
Is the Lib Dem share of 14% down to the firm’s methodology?
In the first of four major polling surveys that we will see in the next few days the internet pollster, YouGov, for the Daily Telegraph has the following shares with the changes on its last poll almost three weeks ago CON 33% (+1): LAB 41% (-1): LD 14% (nc).
So the Tories will be a touch relieved that like ICM on Monday YouGov is showing a reduction in the Labour lead. Even so an 8% margin is a massive gap and would suggest a near landslide Labour victory if this was to be repeated in a general election.
If YouGov continues to be reporting figures which are out of line with the rest of the industry there’ll be much more focus on its methodology - which is totally different from everybody else.
As we have noted before YouGov does not make any adjustment for the likelihood to vote - a factor that with other pollsters sharply cuts back Labour shares. Its samples are restricted to members of its polling panel on whom it has got a lot of data and who can get surveyed time and time again.
The firm seeks politically balanced samples by using a weighting system based on “party identification”. This was gathered from 44,000 respondents at the time of the general election. Excluding those who said don’t know this splits CON 34.2%: LAB 45.2%: LD 15%. In the general election, of course, Labour came out with 36.2%, the Tories had 33.2% while the LDs got 22.7% of the GB vote. This might explain the poor shares for the Lib Dems that YouGov usually comes up with.
The last time that YouGov was out of line was after Michael Howard became Tory leader unopposed in late 2003. For six consecutive months from December 2003 to May 2004 the firm had the Tories on 39% or 40% - numbers which caused a lot of discussion at the time about its methodology. This helped create its reputation as a pollster that favoured the Tories. Well things have changed dramatically since.
We’ll be able to compare YouGov with Ipsos-Mori, Populus and Communicate Research which are all due to be publishing polls within 4-5 days. If these are pointing to 8% Labour leads then it would surely increase the pressure on Brown to call an early election.
But one thing’s for sure - Gordon needs more than YouGov to make such a momentous decision.
According to Ben Brogan’s Daily Mail blog “Tories say privately their internal Populus poll paints a completely different picture - the parties are level pegging and Mr Cameron’s approval rating is climbing.” That would seem to be a very risky thing for the Tories to be saying to journalists like Brogan if it is not the case.
My betting. Having taken my profits on Labour in the commons spread markets earlier in the month I will continue to stand aside. My main position is on how long it will be to the general election where I’ve bet against Gordon going early. That remains.
My holiday. This is my last article before my holiday in the old fishing port of St. Jean de Luz in the Basque country about 12km from the Spanish border. Doing a full-time job as well as running this blog is very exhausting and I very much need the break. I’ll be back on September 17th.
Paul Maggs takes over as guest editor and is looking for guest articles. He can be contacted here.
Mike Smithson
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More confirmation last night of the non existence of the Brown bounce when people have to actually vote for real .
Isle Of Wight UA Newport North Con hold Labour drop from 2nd to 3rd and LibDems move to close 2nd .
Con 207 LibDem 189 Lab 137 UKIP 25 Ind 23 Ind 2
2005 result Con 393 Lab 337 LibDem 291
As we discussed on last nights thread ,Epping was BNP hold , Labour vote halved and LibDems moved from 5th to 3rd place .
Conservatives held Stroud Nailsford from Greens by 47 votes .
Local elections are no real judge. The polls are a much more reliable guide, as to the outcome of the next GE. If local elections were a reliable guide, the Tories would’nt have won four GE’s on the trot.
The next set of polls are crucial, if they continue to show a Labour lead of 5% plus, then the Tory, ‘fight back’ will have failed. If the Tory, ‘fight back’ has failed, then pressure on Brown to go this autumn, will grow.
On possible dates the DT mentions Nov 1st. I thought all political parties preferred to avoid general elections not in “British Summer Time” (the most recent is Feb 74 which was a sort of “emergency” situation). Or is this just a myth and it actually would n’t make any difference to turnout which of course is much lower anyway?
Out of interest when was the field work conducted for this poll? Over on ConHome its reported as having been a little while back (though their vague)?
Either way, I’m not sure it’ll have made much difference despite the best efforts of DC the mainstream media has remained pretty much free of political stories… beyond those that hacks and anoraks are likely to take notice of (ie. Cameron’s assured performance on Newsnight). For the average voter, there’s been some news to add weight to the perennial fear that “the country is going to the dogs” but this hasn’t been slotted into a party-political narrative.
1 I believe the Nailsworth result was an increase in the tory majority from 12 - a good result in the marginal seat of Stroud and more evidence that in actual votes being cast the Brown Bounce is hard to find.
Mike’s bet on no early election seems a good one.
Re 4 on the timing. According to the small print in the Telegraph graphic its says 1377 people were surveyed between “July 23rd and 25th”. ???????
A point about the “Brown bounce”.
Whenever a Govt is elected after a General Election (regardless of whether they were the Govt before the election) they nearly always go up in the polls in the first month after the election date (assuming nothing catastrophic happens). I would suggest that this is because a significant section of the population stops answering the question “how would you vote in a General Election?”, and starts answering the question “on balance do you think the new Govt is doing a decent job?”. In answering that question they are very generous and generally accept for the purpose of the question that actions pre-election are to be put to one side.
The polls since Brown’s election have followed this script exactly, IMO, but we need to be very wary of whether they would come close to being replicated in an actual election.
I mentioned this the other day, but I think it would be almost unprecedented for a Govt to go to the country this early in their term without good reason (I could come up with Baldwin over Protection and that’s about it). There really is very little justification for an October election short of “Labour are ahead in the polls” which doesn’t really hold up as a valid excuse.
I have checked my diary;the Labour Party conference runs from Sunday 23rd-Friday 28th Sept-the Tories from Sunday 30th Sept-Wednesday 3rd October.I cannot help but think GB using his conference to launch the election would look opportunistic,frankly cavalier,and it would be more appropriate to allow DC to hold his conference,then,assuming conditions were right ,the following day see Her Majesty to seek a dissolution.As the Representation of People Act stipulates the campaign is 17 days,excluding weekends and Bank Holidays,this would yield Thursday 1st November as a hypothetical polling day.
BUT a lot could happen twixt now and then-so I will stay on a realtively low level of ‘election alert’-for now:wink:
“Tories say privately their internal Populus poll paints a completely different picture - the parties are level pegging and Mr Cameron’s approval rating is climbing. Who to believe?”
How private can it be if they are telling Brogan from the Mail? Most likely their man from the NoW thought he better [moderated. You cannot make allegations like that. ….MS]
6 - lol nice spot Mike! Unfortunately for the Tories they just haven’t changed the small print from last month
Good morning all.
Pleased to see Labour’s numbers holding reasonably well. Who would have thought it at the start of the year, eh?
A nice stat for Brown - 44% see him as best PM, with only 20% for DC and (ouch!) just 6% for Mong.
5.” a good result in the marginal seat of Stroud and more evidence that in actual votes being cast the Brown Bounce is hard to find”
what Labour polled in Stroud?
Isle of Wight: Con 207, LD 189, Lab 137, UKIP 25, Ind 23, Ind 2
It was last fought in 2005, on GE turnout..so Labour being down, it’s hardly surprising as turnout helved
re 9. Roger - your statement was potentially actionable.
Roger @ 9 — it was always vaguely surprising that the Conservatives did not attack Blair for New Labour’s deliberately cavalier attitude to the truth. I sincerly hope that is one aspect of Blair that Cameron will not be heir to.
OT The Electoral Commission published expenditure for Scottish and Welsh elections
When William Hague was tackled about the opinion polls, he had a stock answer,’ Look at the local election results and the excellent result we had in the European elections, when real people have to cast real votes, that tells a different story’
Political activists/supporters when things aren’t going their way, always look for the silver lining, always produce an optimistic scenario for their own party, and pessimistic scenarios for the opposition.
Political activists of all parties should be given a copy of, John O’Sullivan’s book, ‘Things can only get better’ probably the funniest book ever written on politics. The delusional state, that Labour activists slid into during the ’80’s is well explored. Some Tory posters to this site, would recognise the symptoms.
If Yougov is out of line it is not because of lack of weighting. As I’ve argued before, the phone pollsters use a flawed method to randomise their samples which systematically finds too many Labour-leaning respondents, so heavy weighting is needed to adjust this.
Yougov’s reliance on party identification has one, or possibly two, flaws when it comes to the LibDems. First, a high proportion of LibDem voters do not really support the party but use it as a vehicle for protest. Possibly second is that the party identification question might have been answered as a last vote question.
well, at least the LibDems haven’t slipped any further back
Seriously, Mike’s digging into past vote recall for YouGov gives me heart that our share is holding up well nationally, and Mark’s reporting on local elections is also good news. I think the key to the LibDem performance is still going to be the left/centre voters’ awareness of who to choose between Labour and LibDem to beat the Tory or keep the Tory out. In LibDem-held constituencies, knowledge of who the MP is should help greatly, and lead to fewer losses (I still expect some) than some of the Cons on here expect/predict.
I don’t feel we’re going to get as many gains from Labour as we might have been thinking a few months ago.
Can someone also point out to ‘18 Doughty Street’ that it’s indulge, not induldge.
For those of you, errr bemused by this Diana, ‘thing’ read the Daily Mash’s comment, the only newspaper worth reading!
http://www.thedailymash.co.uk/
Politically, funny things can always happen in Summer - remember John Prescott running the country?. OK - silly example, but also not so silly. A lot of people are away during July and August, and for Gordon Brown, parliament has been away for virtually his entire premiership. Indeed, if he does call a general election, he won’t have faced parliament more than two or three times between becoming PM in June and the new session in November.
While parties can start all sorts of internal squabbles while either the leader is away or other things are going on, the means of holding the government to account become more limited - not only is parliament not sitting, but the political media are also taking their own breaks, and perhaps the news tends to become more lightweight in line with the public’s own preferences, who may not be paying that much attention anyway.
So while eight per cent does seem a big lead for Labour in the present circumstances and 14% still looks low for the Lib Dems, I wonder (or hope?) whether the Summer break has kept Brown’s bounce in place. Once he reappears and has to start facing some hard questioning - whether in parliament or an election campaign - he will have a harder job maintaining his lead.
That however also depends on both other main party leaders and their front benches. Ming the missing needs to start getting some positive exposure and find an issue he can make his own. While 14% seems on the low side, apart from ‘not the other two’, he’s providing precious few reasons to vote positively for the Lib Dems at the moment. What is the core Lib Dem vote? Probably some way under 14%, I’d have thought. It could drop there if he continues to underperform.
And Cameron has to start nailing Brown. He’s had a mixed month with some good ideas coming from the policy reviews as well as some organisational cock-ups. The party is in a decent shape to fight an election - probably better prepared than Labour is in terms of money, staff and candidates in place - but it would still harm his cause to have to fight a campaign while the policy preparation is taking place. Two or three decent hits in September will make sure it doesn’t happen.
Re. 16, yes, I particularly liked O’Sullivan’s reference to a comrade who thought smiling was right-wing.
p.s.
That should read grumpy-old-man, the memory’s going as well, nurse the tablets!
16, 21: That’s John O’Farrell. But you’re right, it’s a very funny book indeed: not just for Labour activists but for anyone who’s ever been bitten by the political bug. I especially love O’Farrell’s description of middle-class graffiti (with correct punctuation) and his exposé of the lengths actvists will go to to get people out to vote.
From what I see (through my admittedly partisan prism), Cameron *did* have some star quality at the beginning. However, the strategy that he and his team has pursued has been totally inept. He tried to trash Gordon before him becoming PM. Gordon only then had to walk in a straight line for people to think “mmm, he’s quite good actually!” and reward Labour accordingly. The blame for this is both Cameron and Osborne’s hubris.
It should be remembered YouGov were producing surprisingly low shares for the Lib Dems from the beginning. At that point though the benificiary was the Conservatves. Remember when they were Tories own pollster, IDS used their figs to show how well they were doing to disbelieving Tory MPs who allegedly gave the unkind nickname of AnythingyouwantGuv. My own view is they have changed their methodology or weighting but still bizarrely underrate the Lib Dems. As a consequence they are well overrating how well Labour are doing now just as they did the Tories then
6 So when was the Polling
OT — does anyone else think Private Eye has trouble with Gordon Brown? The Broon-ites cartoon strip seems to be an in-joke for Scots, and the tone of the Stalinist Prime Ministerial Decrees is desparately uneven.
Things can only get better @ 16 - John O’Farrell not O’Sullivan
25.
The thing that confuses me about YouGov, is their apparent inconsistency, this is not to say they are volatile (like Mori), but the fact they showed very big shares for the Conservatives for a long period of Howard’s leadership when this was not reflected by any other pollster and now record significantly larger shares of the vote for Labour under Brown, is puzzling.
I’m not disputing Labour’s poll lead (its there for all to see, not just in YouGov, but ICM, Mori the whole lot!), what does make me wonder about the YouGov figures is the way they differ from other pollsters by a discernable degree (Labour up +3 with YouGov as opposed to ICM, and their lead greater by a similar margin).
It is of course entirely possible that YouGov are producing accurate figures of what the public mood now is, however there hasn’t been an instance where YouGov has produced a poll significantly out of line with other pollsters sufficiently close to a general election to enable either them to claim their methodology has been vindicated or for their critics to suggest the opposite.
I do not take YouGov polls seriously because they are using the same population sample every time and they already have a data bank of voting intentions. For example, in the 3 years or so that I have been on YouGov I have only once been asked my voting intention. Obviously they select their sample, knowing political allegiance in advance. I wasn’t asked invited to do this latest poll, but I am repeatedly asked to do their silly Brand Index polls.
It is therefore very easy to manage to get a low LD figure for the anti LD papers they serve.
However, I do take ICM seriously and note our slippage from 20 to 18. This is the Ming perception problem that we have to live with.
Beth
O/T - US Presidentials: Fred Thompson reported to be finally making his formal declaration of candidacy next week: http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/20517462/
29 You have the same phenomena in German polls where Forsa in their weekly !!!! polls always show SPD 2-3% below every other German poster . They no doubt stubbornly insist they are correct and every other pollster is wrong .
Re Yougov , the trouble is that prior to the last election their weighting was to past vote and not party ID . It is my belief that it is this change in their method of weighting since the last GE that has caused them to consistently give lower LibDem figures than other pollsters . As Mike says in his lead , if you are weighting to a figure of 15% you will get a lower figure than if you weight to a past vote of 22% .
Come on - YouGov were great in the Labour deputy leadership as backers of Alan Johnson and Hilary Benn will tell you.
See
http://www.yougov.com/archives/pdf/TEL070101013_1.pdf
Beth, rather than live with it, should not somebody be doing something about it, whatever that may best be. Maybe another leader. maybe not?
The full Stroud Nailsworth result was Con 857 Green 810 Labour 261 - Result in May was Con 839 Green 827 Labour 290 UKIP 116 LibDem 112 . Note the Brown bounce since May in a Labour held Parliamentary seat is minus 29 votes .
29 Very true but there is world of difference in the size of the leads from YouGov and then the rest for the purposes of an election. Clearly the way they do the Lib Dems inflates disproportionately one of the big two.
12 only going by the email I received asking for help - a green held seat - they do quite well with the hippy set in Stroud so perhaps it’s really evidence of a lack of desire to kick the tories.
25. “It should be remembered YouGov were producing surprisingly low shares for the Lib Dems from the beginning”
In the 2002-2005 period they didn’t seem to have them at particularly low %…their worst yougov % in 2002-2005 was 18%.
They managed to have them at 30% a couple of times.
http://www.yougov.com/archives/pdf/you020101076_39.pdf
O/T -
If you want a bit of a laugh then come to
http://wombleontour.blogspot.com/
and join in our game of Fantasy Government. Select your Cabinet team and earn points when they foul things up.
Warning - not for people who ALWAYS have to take politics too seriously.
“Roger @ 9 — it was always vaguely surprising that the Conservatives did not attack Blair for New Labour’s deliberately cavalier attitude to the truth. I sincerly hope that is one aspect of Blair that Cameron will not be heir to”
John L. I am genuinely not sure whether you’re being ironic? It’s not easy to tell on the internet unless you are quite familiar with the poster. Just in case you’re being serious during the last election campaign on a 48 sheet poster next to a picture of Tony Blair was the word “LIAR” and then in small print ‘are you thinking what we’re thinking’. Not exactly subtle!
If this poll was carried out beween July 23th-25th, then surely its so far out of date that its pretty much worthless?
35.”Note the Brown bounce since May in a Labour held Parliamentary seat is minus 29 votes . ”
note that the LDs couldn’t even find a candidate…-112 votes for Ming
37. “only going by the email I received asking for help - a green held seat ”
no, it wasn’t a Green held seat, but a Con held seat
Andrea at 12. If you don’t win ‘poster of the year’ it’ll be a travesty!
38 Compared to the other pollsters they were IIRC. As the others had them higher YouGov did too. Now the others have them lower they do too only far lower. The figs are only not that low in relation the incredible figures they are coming up with now
35 Mark - Nailsworth is a delightful place but very untypical. Not many Wards where the Greens would poll those sort of numbers.
Looks like the absence of UKIP saved the day for the Conservatives.
Incidentally, Nailsworth is where I stay during the Cheltenham Festival, which is how I know it. Has some great shops and restaurants.
44.”Compared to the other pollsters they were IIRC”
If you compare 2003 Guardian Monthly ICM Polls with yougov polls with 2003 yougov figures, the average for LDs is not different.
ICM had LDs at 21-22 for the first part of the year and then they peaked at 28% in September.
Yougov had them ranging from 18 to 25 at the beginning with a peak at 30% in September.
So it wasn’t yougov always under-estimating LDs at the time, but it was more volatile than ICM
45. “Nailsworth is a delightful place but very untypical. Not many Wards where the Greens would poll those sort of numbers.”
Stroud has a Green presence. They’ve 5 Green councillors.
“Looks like the absence of UKIP saved the day for the Conservatives.”
But the Greens could have benefited from the LD absence. So it can be score draw in terms of parties not standing.
And the Greens should have squeezed Labour a bit to overcome the Tories.
As Kingbongo implied earlier, it can be a sign of voters not being desperate to kick Con out in that ward
41 - and if it was carried out July 23th-25th then why are the Telegraph using it? Hidden agenda to put more pressure on DC?
Although it would be ironic if the Tories didn’t make much headway by doing exactly what the Telegraph/Mail/Sun etc wanted.
48 - I assume its a typo and they mean August.
49 - I assume it’s got to be a typo, even the Telegraph couldn’t get it that wrong. Could they?
47 Points taken, Andrea.
It’s still fairly untypical, though I guess you could say that about most places. Look at that exciting election we watched last night. How untypical was that!
How’s your surge going this morning?
46. Thanks. Not that that is very reassuring for YouGov sometimes they were the three to four lower than ICM, sometimes higher! As Ben says though they continued out of sync in Howard’s leadership.
“significantly out of line with other pollsters sufficiently close to a general election to enable either them to claim their methodology has been vindicated or for their critics to suggest the opposite.” 29 And you never will as in 1992 and last time they will flock together at the last minute like birds on a tree. No one will risk being the one to stick their necks out
So from yesterday’s council byelections we conclude:
- Epping Forest:
Brown should resign…Cameron should face a leadership challenge…Residents Association Leader should resign
- Stroud:
Brown should face a leadership challenge (the MP for Stroud didn’t nominate Brown, but McDonnell)…the 2 Greens’ Principal Speakers should face a confidence vote….Cameron should stay and get more powers….the LD Association Chairman should resign….
Roger @ 41 — I mean there was no sustained campaign attacking Blair’s trustworthiness. Isolated posters mean nothing. Contrast this with the sustained and professional campaign waged by Labour against Tory sleaze. Tories could have started from day one with things like Mandelson’s hidden role in Blair’s leadership campaign, Blair’s favourite dish varying from North to South, and the fate of Humphrey the Cat and his non-existent replacement. Each trivial in itself but they build to create an image of untrustworthiness that might have been fatal later on, perhaps over Iraq.
This is a mistake the Conservatives are repeating under Cameron. Labour is vulnerable on many fronts but hit-and-run skirmishes won’t do. If you want to attack Brown on PFI then do so consistently, not leave it as an afterthought in Redwood’s review. Likewise pensions, WLQ or any other issue.
Isolated speeches do not a marketing campaign make. No-one in Soho or Clerkenwell would try to build a brand like this.
43 - You and I don’t always agree
but on this, left and right can unite! Avanti Milano.
Redflump: the Tories’ strategy of attacking Brown was the right one at the time. Remember the aim was to force Labour into putting up a Blairite candidate and going through a bruising contest, which might result in some other inept leader. This very nearly worked, but each contender was shot down one by one…
..because they were all hopeless. Bad news should Brown fall under the proverbial bus.
52. Punter, have you seen WA expenses figures?
For the national campaign:
Lab…over the 250,000£, so the final figure will be declared later (Nov 2)
Con £245,972.60
Plaid £245,475
LD £239,799
For local candidates:
Lab £259,431
Con £195,226
Plaid £172,143
LD 167,608
Trish Law spent £6,193 in BG
John L @ 17: People were asked who they were voting for (*voting for, not voted for, the data used for weighted was collected on and around the 5th May 2005, so it wasn’t past vote then, it was current vote) in the same survey as the party ID question so they would have had the chance to give different answers. In fact, lots of them did.
A quarter of those people said they didn’t indentify with any party, but lots of them did vote. A lot of people who said they identified with the Labour party told us they were actually abstaining or voting Liberal Democrat.
The shares of party ID that YouGov weight to correspond to the shares of the vote in May 2005 that happened in reality so they don’t vote to a Lib Dem share of 15% of past vote, they weight to the equivalent of a 23% share of Lib Dem vote, it’s just a lot of those Lib Dem voters didn’t identify with the party, they were unaligned floating voters, tactical voters and protesting Labour identifiers (ditto being a Labour identifier doesn’t mean you actually vote Labour, loads of them didn’t bother)
The reason for the lower Lib Dem share in YouGov poll is almost certainly because of the weighting in some way or other, but my suspicion is that its not because their samples contain fewer 2005 Lib Dem voters, but because their sample contains fewer committed Lib Dem voters and more of the sort of people who flit between Labour, Lib Dem, other, don’t know, etc, etc. A lot of those people voted Lib Dem in 2005, now those people are supporting Gordon Brown.
The real big question is why would it make sense to Labour for Gordon to delay beyond this autumn? What are the reasons why Labour’s chances will get better in 2008 or 2009 compared to this autumn?
Why will the economy get better and interest rates fall?
Why will Gordon’s honeymoon last beyond 6 months?
Will Labour be able to recruit tens of thousands of activists and start adding councillors?
Will the SNP weaken in Scotland next year?
Is Iraq going to become a peaceful land?
To each of these questions the rationale view is that the chances are that things are more likely to get worse, than get better. 2007 is the logical move.
56 - We in the Labour party knew that no one would stand against Gordon, but that didn’t stop the media and the internet trying to stir up a non-existant challenge. Labour kept its faith with Gordon despite the bad set of polls, which we just knew weren’t true. As we can now see.
60 - Well, the income tax cuts are coming in in April. Interest rates may have peaked.
60. “What are the reasons why Labour’s chances will get better in 2008 or 2009 compared to this autumn?”
It may not all be about chances getting better…if you think you can lose in a 2007 election, I don’t think he would be encouraged to go even if it would mean losing less badly than waiting for 2009.
If he thinks he won’t get an overall majority, I don’t think he will go to the country even if going now would be getting 300 seats whilst going in 2009 would mean getting 250 seats
(just theoretically figures, of course)
Anthony Wells, who usually gets these things right, says the YouGov poll was taken overwhelmingly though not entirely before the Tory crime policy announcement, which was a few days ago, so it probably is Aug 23-25. The Tories’ elusive Populus poll will have presumably been in much the same period, but there are good reasons to be wary of selectively-reported second-hand extracts from private polls. We’ll see their public poll next Tuesday, I believe, and that will take full account of whatever impact the crime policy had.
The thing to be absolutely rigid about is that it’s a mug’s game to compare polls using different methods - sensible analysis has to compare like with like. So the points I’d focus on in the YouGov poll are:
- Stability of the ‘bounce’ despite a fortnight of generally bad news
- Increasing conifdence in Brown personally and declining confidence in Cameron personally
- In particular, the change in the ‘forced choice’ question - do you prefer a Labour/Brown government or a Tory/Cameron government?
If we accept, as I think even Tories here mostly do, that at present Brown is seen as more convincing as a PM than Cameron would be, then it’s possible that the phenomenon that Mike has mentioned has gone into reverse; naming the leaders may now tilt the polls towards Labour. Perhaps the Ealing by-election was the first sign of that, with “David Cameron’s Conservatives” doing less well than the simple “Conservative” in the Sedgefield by-election.
Incidentally, Labour supporters wanting a laugh should read the comments thread attached to the Telegraph poll. Makes Tapestry and SeanT look like Labour activists.
Yes Nick! I thought people like that didn’t really exist, but they do. I especially liked the guy who wrote about the destruction of Britain over the last 10 years and managing to weave immigration and the EU Treaty into it all. Priceless!
58 Thanks. Have you seen Wallers bit on Doughty street? Very good. Yet to finish but some points. Thought he was right to pick out Newport East for the Lib Dems but surprised he did not then mention Newport West for the Tories. This is especially because he mentioned Bridgend as an outer Tory target. Maybe he was trying to generate interest in each region, but if Bridgend ever went (not that I can see it) Paul Flynn would surely be gone long before that. I’d even put Gower ahead of Bridgend for the Tories. I think Cardiff West and South may also move into semi marginal status next time. Swansea West he thought was moving away from the Lib Dems, and the fact they have yet to select a candidate leads me to agree. It just doesn’t indicate seriousness of intent. Anyway will watch the rest.
OT an interesting point of view about who the democrats should put up in 2008 http://www.guardian.co.uk/comment/story/0,,2159499,00.html
48- ‘and if it was carried out July 23th-25th then why are the Telegraph using it? Hidden agenda to put more pressure on DC?’
Or trying to make the Tory counter bounce look more impressive, or they commissioned it and are going to print it however out of date it is.
HF speaks sense.The economy certainly—if credit markets are anything to go by–looks like losing the rosy glow of wealth effect spending and then all the dangerous games he’s played with fiscal issues will come home to roost if tax revenues decline to any sxignificant degree.
Shurely,the only thing stopping him going now is money.The way the electoral system favours labour means a 4% lead gives them a working majority unless they really have lost their mojo in scotland
68 If you think the Torygraph wants to make DC look good while there is breath in Heffer’s body I fear for you…………
60, I have just read the Telegraph’s Leader after penning the above.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/opinion/main.jhtml?xml=/opinion/2007/08/31/dl3101.xml
It makes my same points in a much more eloquent way.
“Least risky option for Labour is to go now”
“The risk over the coming months is that tales of house repossessions, insolvencies, business failures and rising unemployment will increasingly fill the news and business pages.”
60/69 HF/Degsy
The real big question is why would he play guessing games?
He can stay PM for another two years or so. Why risk losing? Even if he wins he only extends his premiership by another couple of years. He has a solid majority. He doesn’t need a bigger one. If he went early and got a smaller one, he’d look silly. If he lost, he’d look very silly.
Does that answer the question?
62 - “Well, the income tax cuts are coming in in April”
Ah, so they’re income tax cuts now? Come off it - repeating a lie doesnt make it true or believable.
Problem with the Tories, is they won’t attack Brown where it hurts.
Tripled the debt burden, sold gold at lows, raided pensions, lying about inflation etc
Why do they keep so quiet on the matter?
The British economy has never been stranger,I’m so sorry I meant stronger.
73 - since when is reducing the basic rate from 22-20p not a cut in income tax (leaving aside scrapping the 10p rate to pay for it!)? This is not a *lie*. The basic rate is being reduced in a tax neutral budget.
71 There is always the risk that events will conspire against him, whether he goes early or not.
Those urging an early election have an agenda. That’s fair enough. He’s under no pressure to yield to them though and would be foolish if he did.
IF he starts to get ten point leads, yes, maybe…but it’s a big if.
63 Andrea “less likely to lose…”
The betting odds back a Brown win ahead of a Cameron one right now.
The Telegraph make the additional point that the Lib Dems may not be led by Ming in 2 years time.
On the economy, Barclays borrow £1bn from the BoE. We know that public finances will get tighter in the next few years, so more trouble on that front for Labour in 08 and 09.
72 If you believe that he only serves one full term he’d actually shorten his Premiership by a couple of years even if he won
St Jean de Luz is great this time of year. I would normally be around there for a week around now, but baby #2 due in 2 weeks… Enjoy your holiday!
68/70 - get the feeling some people in Telegraph towers quite enjoy the polls right now.
Cynical thought time. By announcing “core” policy during the time of year when the public cares least about politics, is DC banking on people not paying attention and the subsequent lack of poll movement?
Hence, when we get another round of “People are crying out for tax cuts/immigration controls/out of the EU” from the usual suspects, he can turn around and say “hey, we did that in late August and nothing happened in the polls. Now belt up while I talk about the NHS”.
Perhaps I ought to lay off the Murphys.
75 - “since when is reducing the basic rate from 22-20p not a cut in income tax (leaving aside scrapping the 10p rate to pay for it!)?”
I’m afraid describing that overall package (which is not tax cutting) as “income tax cuts” *is* a lie and it’s sad if you cant see that. Dont you remember the trouble it got GB into when the public started to think they were being sold a pup?
72 Peter the Punter, “Why risk losing?…. he only extends his premiership by another couple of years.”
Fact is he has to go within next 2.5 years. He has control of choosing when. By going now he fights the election when he has the best chance of winning. Otherwise things will only get worse as will his chances. Callaghan delayed and lost because his party became weaker and his opponent got stronger. Brown maybe looking to learn from him more than Major.
79 Not another PB baby! It must have been a very quiet time on the Site nine months ago.
Congratulations and good luck, Jon.
Interesting how all the focus at the moment is on Cameron’s ineptitude and relatively little on brown’s agenda. I thought we were going to get the big 100 day bonanza of new policies. Instead we find out that the Prime Minister will no longer be appointing Bishops to the House of Lords and phone intercept evidence might be allowed in court cases. As for Foreign Affairs, one moment we’re in, the next we’re out; next thing Gordon’s gonna shake it all about.
Meanwhile we learn that the government’s £20bn early years education scheme has achieved nothing and the season of strikes is already upon us, with prison officers the first to go. Not that the Tories appear to have noticed.
Anthony Wells @ 59 on Yougov LibDems — yes, I think we are broadly in agreement.
61. “Labour kept its faith with Gordon despite the bad set of polls, which we just knew weren’t true. ”
Redflump - that’s not quite true, is it? There was a huge amount of nervousness in the Labour party about Gordon Browns prospective “coronation”. I know my Labour friends were certainly very worried. Ex-blarite MPs and anonymous backbenchers were regularly coming onto the media to express their strong doubts about Brown.
When he emerged as the only serious contender, unsurprisingly, virtually every Labour MP backed him, as they realistically had to.
54. JohnL - On Tory strategy, I think you’re right. I think Cameron has waited too long before getting the policy groups to report - allowing the “vacuous” accusation to build up a dangerous head of steam. I think this is unfair. Cameron does hold some very strong - and consistent - views on how civil society is “broken” and needs fixing by encouraging more individual/community action. He also fully understands the need to “balance up” the Conservative message.
This message really *does* reasonate. Talking to anyone in the pub, barber, restaurant, at work - or even overhearing them - you hear about how people are worried about peoples general rudeness to each other, incivility, inpoliteness, latent aggressiveness, peoples lack of tolerance, lack of community spirit, poor neighbourliness, broken families, violent crime.. As a nation, we’ve lost something.
He has, however, had trouble in communicating this message in a strong and consistent way:
(1) The “Message” - The “Social Responsibility” phrase has no traction. No-one knows what it means and it has no ‘emotion’ with it. It needs revisiting.
(2) Shadow Cabinet - too many are part-timers who aren’t fully committed to their briefs - with the notable exceptions of David Davis and Chris Grayling
(3) CCHQ - CCHQ aren’t as proactive with the media as Labour. They are also staffed by (*ahem*) not the sharpest tools in the box - many hoorah henrys and sons/daughters/friends of MPs - it’s not professional enough
(4) Perception of Disunity - There is a wedge of Tory MPs who dislike the Cameron project and are going around causing trouble - who also seem to be incapable of discipline
(5) Cameron Clique - related to above, they need to be more tactful/skillful in bringing all the parliamentary party on board and making them feel part of the project
(6) Northern/Welsh/Scotland Network - I simply don’t think many seats can be won up here - period - until the organisation is completely rebuilt over 5 years+ It is STILL the case that nowhere near enough effort is going into this. Cameron needs to put a lot of resources in. It forms a natural “block” to preventing a Tory Majority in the short-term.
I could on about how too many Tories are still starstruck by Thatcher and don’t understand the need to build a broad coalition to win government these days but I won’t…
My key point is: All is not lost! Cameron can turn this around - remember Brown “Bounce” implies he goes up, and then comes down again - but I think success is limited to 250/260 seats at best.
That is what Cameron needs to fight for.
82 “By going now he fights the election when he has the best chance of winning. Otherwise things will only get worse as will his chances.”
You know that do you, HF? I don’t. I am uncertain. I wish I had your prescience. You must make a fortune on your betting.
86 Well what do you think of by many. Wales will never turn blue but it is quite possible if you do well to get enough MPs fill a London taxi. Are you saying that is not worth it for your Party
86 - “(4) Perception of Disunity - There is a wedge of Tory MPs who dislike the Cameron project and are going around causing trouble - who also seem to be incapable of discipline
(5) Cameron Clique - related to above, they need to be more tactful/skillful in bringing all the parliamentary party on board and making them feel part of the project”
I made a comment on my first ever PB post that Cameron wants an early election - not because he’ll win, but because then he’ll be able to get more of “his” sort of people in. Namely the ones who understand what he’s trying to do even if they don’t agree with all of it.
Sorry about getting the authorship wrong, these Irish names confuse me! Sorry about getting my own name wrong!
Tories and Cameron: I was driving my sister-in-law back to Exeter, to catch a train, a sweet woman and Tory to her finger tips. When on the radio they mentioned DC, she started to foam at the mouth and went into an harangue, the likes of which I have never seen she is not a fan! Exeter St. Davids never looked to sweet.
“The way the electoral system favours labour means a 4% lead gives them a working majority unless they really have lost their mojo in scotland ”
Not necessarily, if ICM’s analysis of regional vote shares is correct.
Many thanks to all those who have voted for me.
Sean Fear piece today?
85, Ptp, not a fortune, just a small profit.
I would add that with the Conservatives just starting to roll out their proposed policies, Brown can seize the opportunity to strike before they are ready for an election.
In 2008 and 2009 Brown loses that advantage.
89, an interesting thought A&D and probably a correct outcome if the Tories add another 50 MPs, these and the new ones replacing incumbents are going to be more pro-DC than the others.
86. Punter: “Are you saying that is not worth it for your Party ”
No - when did I ever say that?
I’m not talking about sweeping the board in Wales, Scotland, or even the North. I’m talking about how to win a sufficient number of seats to win a majority and have the legitmacy to govern Britain by having representatives present from all parts of it.
The longer that Brown is PM the more that the problems in Britain will be perceived as attributable to him rather than ‘Blair’s Labour’ (yes I understand that is a troublesome distinction).
The longer things go on, the more problems will crop up that will be be ‘his fault’. Therefore its a cop out to have a GE before he has really started as PM
re 49. I could have sworn I herad July mentioned on the radio this morning, but they could have just been quoting the DT.
OK, I’m off to Sandown now and won’t be back until polling in The Great Event has closed. Good luck to all my fellow candidates. Looking again at the list I couldn’t help be be struck by the extreme quality, not only of those nominated but many who were not. It made me aware yet again of how fortunate we are to have so many outstanding contributors.
It looks like my chance has gone so on behalf of my election team - Roger, Mighty Fella and myself - I will concede defeat and thank Mike for organising such an excellent event, which has been conducted with energy and good humor by just about everybody taking part.
It’s still too early to call the result but when I return I suspect that voters may have overcome their Fear and gone for an Italian Job. Either way, we’ll have a worthy champion.
Thanks too to everybody who voted for me. I am grateful for your support, even if I question your judgement.
Ciao everybody.
re 62. the poorest thought will be having their income tax go up in April.
re 66 it was good but excrutiating to listen to some of the constituencies being mangled. Why didn’t they get some assistance with pronunciation - Welsh isn’t a difficult language to pronounce. It’s things like this which make 18DS look so amateurish.
93 It’s not the opinion I object to, HF, it’s the way you assume not only is it an uncontestable fact but that ‘we’ all share your certainty. Rubs my fur up the wrong way.
Better get off to the track now. Back some horses. Make me less grumpy.
Toodle pip.
97 PtP. Not trying a Bob Marshall-Andrews on us are you ??
I’m awaiting a mass of votes from Saxa Vord … the northern most tip of the Shetlands to put me over the top !!
Over the top is of course hardly my style !!
Just thought I would say I agree with Mark at 1, but also though this poll is within the MOE of the last one, the important thing is that the lead is drifting away it seems.
Still, we will know more next week.
re 75 so increasing the basic rate to 25% and doubling the personal allowance to £11,000 (which is by far the most redistributive change posisble with the tax system and would give the lowest paid the most) would be presented as a tax rise would it?
re 62 people when they look at their pay slips couldn’t give a toss at the rate of income tax they’re paying just the amount. And if you think that when the amount goes up they’ll think oh yes I’ve just had an income tax cut then you’re being unbelievably stupid.
86 - an excellent post save for one thing. I don’t know what Labour people you were talking to, but my friends and colleagues, fellow part members etc etc never doubted that Gordon would be leader. We may have been a bit upset by the negative polls, but a feeling went round the party - “screw the polls, we want Gordon”.
I’d expect an average Labour lead of 3/4% or so for September. Is that enough to tempt Gordon to go for an early election?
105. RedFlump.
Obviously your friends were unashamed Brownites!!
107 - yes Casino - we are all little sunbeams for Gordon
Meanwhile …. the masses gather in Sheffield as Sean Fear prepares for a victory rally ….. Mhhhhhhh
“You’re all right … all RIGHT … ALL RIGHT..”
http://www.politicaldogfight.com/photos/uncategorized/23lebanon6001.jpg
59 - If that is the case (which certainly seems so by the ICM breakdown Mike S often shows), then the low Lib Dem share shouldn’t be too much of a concern for them in terms of parliamentary seats, since you’d expect such voters to still vote tactically to keep the Tories out in the southern ex-Tory seats that the Lib Dems hold a lot of.
The Tories could also lose some of the 2005 gains they made where their vote was fairly static, but there was a large Lab -> Lib Dem swing.
However, the ICM regional breakdown doesn’t really square with this picture and looks a lot more worrying for southern Lib Dem MPs.
I’m not counting my chickens yet, Jack.
111 Sean Fear. You count them chickens and Labour will tax them !!
This election has been a triumph of democracy …… don’t you just love the voters ….. the bastards !!
It looks like the timing of yougov’s trawl for voters and their identification meant that a fair number of lib dems they picked up were unrepresentative. I suppose it’s difficult to cope with a party that picks up a high proportion of protests as the things protested against change, but they could at least make an effort.
If lib dems are at 14% in the rest of the upcoming polls then maybe they’re right. Otherwise, along with their UKIP problems they will continue to become less in touch.
112 This photo of a random Pb.Com voter having been directed by his solicitor to an internet cafe in North London perhaps explains your poor showing
http://tinyurl.com/2huplf
94 Indeed you need seats wherever you can get them. If you can scrabble half a dozen seats from Wales that is not to be sniffed at
Conservative internal polling and focus group research is indeed very reassurring for us I am told by a good contact who sees the monthly Ashcroft reports.
The assumption is that Labour will have similar figures to us, they will have seen the same trends and that as a result the prospects for an Autumn poll (never great) are rapidly diminishing.
Mind you the speculation has been fantastically useful for us to dust off and oil the election machine - usually it’s the devil of a job in ‘peacetime’ to get anything done but not at the moment!
My campaign team and I are ready to go now, and personally nothing would suit me better than to get up and at it in a few weeks time.
116. Marcus: “Mind you the speculation has been fantastically useful for us to dust off and oil the election machine - usually it’s the devil of a job in ‘peacetime’ to get anything done but not at the moment! ”
Don’t you think this is a major part of our problem? That we only get our ar$es in gear when an election is imminent?
We need to start understanding there is no such thing as ‘peacetime’ in opposition - we still seem to run CCHQ like we’re in government!
You’re probably in a good position in Torbay following the locals this year though, no?
108 - lol, Red Flump - always enjoy your cheery notes. BTW, i word of support for AveIt 07, who got ticked off by rare poster Goupillon on the last thread. AveIt is another cheerful poster who it’s nice to see - he’s endearingly and unviciously partisan, like the nicest kind of football supporter.
Yet another”open goal”for the Old Etonian Cabal(Conservative Party)
Will they go for it,Will they heck!
This is why “Crash Gordon”leads the opinion polls
The prime minister said he would “do nothing to put” economic stability or low interest rates at risk.
delaying part of this year’s public sector pay rise was “an essential part” of tackling inflation.
But Mr Brown, who decided to stage the pay rises when he was chancellor, said: “We have succeeded in tackling inflation and having a stable economy because of discipline in pay over the last ten years. That discipline will have to continue.”
He said staging pay awards was an “essential part” of controlling inflation, keeping interest rates low and creating more jobs.
“We will do nothing, nothing, to put that at risk. It is an essential element of maintaining discipline in the economy.”
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/6970021.stm
I really just want to smack that man silly.
62 You’ve been reminded that these aren’t tax cuts but let’s just go along with your fantasy and accept they are: what services have been slashed/decimated destroyed to pay for them?
111- from a political perspective sean fear’s adavantage is no surprise-this is a predominantly Tory site, sean fear was obviously the overwhelming (and deserved) endorsement on the Tory side- so should be the favourite.
The only way to stop Sean would have been for the left to unite for one candidate- and for the left to unite over anything is a contradiction in terms. Took them four elections defeats to understand this from 1979.
Possibly a sign of things- the Tories returning back to a position of dominance.
BTW- the youguv poll is pants. No way Labour would poll 41% in a national election.
120 I think Herbert Proper’s post points to what’s been sacrificed so that Gordon could present a fiscally neutral budget (not tax cuts) - real term pay cuts for nurses, police, prison officers, porters etc. Plus real increases in flood defence put off till 2012, too few prison places, “re-configuration” of hospitals driven by financial targets etc etc.
116- Marcus Wood-
“personally nothing would suit me better than to get up and at it in a few weeks time”.
I don’t want to hear about your sexual calender. What are your plans to thwart an early election?
123. lol fyi here is a pic of my sexual calendar http://tinyurl.com/2wkbjq
122-ted- spot on- also the prospects of corporation taxes being limited means that the next couple of years will be lean times for the public sector with further real falls in salaries.
But GB is only doing what is needed. Presents plenty of ammunition though for the Tories if they want to try and stay on the middle ground- but guess what they have already stomped rightwards leaving the public sector still beholden to NuLab.
119. Brown seems to be stuck in a 1970s timewarp, peddling the line that wage increases cause inflation - the reality being that they are a symptom of inflationary pressure.
But he’s not stupid - he knows this line is rubbish. He’s clever - he realises it might resonate with dim-witted Labour voters who really are stuck in a 1970s mindset.
124- jimbo have just been moderated for the first time on pbCOM with a witty response to your post. Oh well.
Mike Smithson - enjoy your hols. I’m off to Biarritz myself on Wednesday, for work, then travelling round the Spanish Basque country to do a couple more articles…
So we may bump into each other, when we’re both skulking in the Bilbao internet cafe furiously posting on pb.com.
Never been to the Basque country. Apparently they have enormous ears and still worship the moon.
121 Don’t know about that, but YouGov is embarrassing WRT to the Lib Dem vote. Noticeable how no one even Anthony King really seems to endorse the Lib Dem at 12% figs they sometimes come up with. That said they’ll never be embarrassed cos anyone really want to bet their Lib Dem figure will shoot up on eve of polling day?
121: oh, I don’t know, tyson, one of the charms of the site is that we’re able to chat across party lines, and Sean Fear seems a good choice to me, though andrea probably has done most of any of us to earn it.
The interesting thing about the voting pattern is that, by 2am or so last night seant had closed up to just behind the other Sean. I logged on late morning to find out that he’d fallen back again. The early morning voters seem to be more party oriented, were they out delivering leaflets last night or something (or maybe they just log in from the office every a.m.)?
129 - this does seem low for the LDs. But you have to admit, they have been *nowhere* in the media for weeks now.
132 I think the absolute minimum for the Lib Dem vote share is c.17%
132 Yes but 12-14% is taking the mick
127. Shame - a witty post from you would have been a first.
So polls confirm there is still a Brown bouce but did we not expect this to last at least six months (or more)?
One thing Brown has definitely got wrong and that’s replacing English patriotism with Britishness. Either we create a progressive civic Englishness, or we leave Englishness open to ethnicisation by groups like the BNP where English becomes a synonym for White Anglo-Saxon. The best way to create a civic, progressive and positive Englishness is for everybody - regardless of ethnicity, race or religion - to be a stakeholder in England through the ballot box. This means creating an English parliament and government so that Englishness becomes constitutional. It’s really very straight forward. Brown’s Britishness project does not do this. And no amount of railing against the BNP will do it either.
136 - Heh! Trust francis to weave in his argument for an English Parliament! Well done that man!
137. Perhap I should be renamed ‘Frances’ if I wore a kilt!
134: The lowest that YouGov have recorded the Liberal Democrats at is 13% bang in the middle of the whole Kennedy, Oaten, Hughes imbroglio. More recently they haven’t gone below 14%.
YouGov undoubtedly tend to report the lowest share of Liberal Democrat support of the main pollsters, but just recently there hasn’t actually been a huge contrast between them and other pollsters = Populus had the Lib Dems at 15%, MORI has had them at 15% for three months in a row and Communicate have them at 16%. YouGov are the lowest, but there really isn’t a gulf between them, Populus and MORI, only when you comapre them to ICM.
136 Sadly the BNP were almost elected in North Wales t the Welsh Assembly as has been pointed out. Try again
131 I agree, having anticipated the politically committed and devotees of pb.com to have voted last night, I expected seant to have closed the gap today, as those more casual visitors to this site cast their votes - those who are perhaps attracted by seant’s entertaining writng, irrespective of political allegiance.
In fact the opposite appears to be the case with Sean Fear having widened the gap over the past few hours and the prize is now surely his.
140. The only way to tackle the BNP is to destroy the conditions that make them grow and fester - unlimited immigration, politicical correctness, multiculturalism, outdated and flawed race relations laws, positive discrimination, the use of imm