Whatever Happened To The Far Left?
August 31st, 2007
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Sean Fear’s Friday slot
A couple of weeks ago, I examined the impact of parties to the Right of the Conservatives. This week, I do the same with parties to the Left of Labour and the Liberal Democrats.
Back in the 1980s, quite large numbers of people supported Labour’s policies of nationalisation, unilateral nuclear disarmament, restoration of the right to secondary picketing and the closed shop, and ending the sale of council houses. In fact, I can remember intelligent people at university arguing at the time that East Germany’s economy was outperforming our own, and that the United States was a greater threat to this country than the Soviet Union. Most of the people who held such views must still be alive today.
Although the current Labour government has been more left wing than its rhetoric suggests, it must still be a disappointment to people who hold such opinions. It is puzzling therefore, that no significant party of the Far Left has emerged over the past 10-15 years. In Labour’s heartlands, the potential for such a party must exist.
Arthur Scargill’s Socialist Labour Party occasionally saves a deposit, but never really developed any momentum,. Tommy Sheridan’s Socialist Labour Party enjoyed some success in the Scottish Parliamentary elections of 2003, before collapsing in the embarrassment of a libel trial that saw most of Sheridan’s close colleagues giving evidence against him. Militant Tendency changed its name, and has won the odd council seat here or there, but has nothing like the support it had 20 years ago.
Respect has built up a following in the East End, and a few other parts of the country. They won Bethnal Green and Stepney in 2005, and came a very good second in Birmingham Sparkbrook. Unfortunately, for them, the latter constituency has been abolished in the latest round of boundary changes. In the long run, they may challenge Labour in East and West Ham, but outside of a few constituencies, Labour doesn’t need to worry about them. Their support is almost completely confined to Muslim voters, and even then, most Muslims don’t vote for them.
The Green Party would probably deny that they are a party of the far Left. Their policies however, place them well to the Left of any of the main parties. They have over 100 elected councillors (no mean achievement under first past the post). They also have a chance of winning a seat off Labour in Brighton, at the next election. However, they probably do more damage to the Liberal Democrats than they do to Labour. In 2006, a strong Green performance certainly cost the Liberal Democrats overall control of Islington Council, and may well have cost them control of Haringey as well. In inner urban areas, the Greens and Liberal Democrats are often chasing after the same type of voter, young, secular, environmentally concerned, and professional.
All in all, Labour must count themselves fortunate that no party of the Far Left has emerged that can do significant damage to them.
There were three by-elections last night:-
Loughton BC, Alderton. BNP 393, Resident 367, Lib Dem 172, Conservative 163 Labour 98 ,UKIP 28. BNP hold. This is the first BNP by-election win for 4 years, and their first ever hold in a by-election. It points to firm BNP support in the old London County Council overspill estates. Until quite recently, this was a safe Labour ward.
Isle of Wight UA, Newport North. Conservative 207, Lib Dem 189, Labour 137, UKIP, 25, Independent 23, Independent 2. Conservative hold. The Liberal Democrats leap-frogged Labour to take second place.
Stroud DC, Nailsworth: Conservative 857, Green 810, Labour 261. Conservative hold. This is a most unusual example of a Conservative/Green marginal seat. For several elections in a row, the Conservatives have held on by very narrow margins here.
Sean Fear is a London Conservative activist and a regular contributor to pb.com
Voting for the poster of the year will close today at 6.30 pm - you can cast your vote here.
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“What Ever Happened To The Far Left ??”
Presently it’s got 68 votes and 16% of the vote and is called Andrea !!
I once read Norman Tebbit say that the BNP are more a party of the far left than the far right.
Interesting article Sean, Commies are one of my favourite subjects!
:lol: 
The lefties are in reality a mixture of sleeper cells in the Labour party, splinter factions in Respect, SLP and other regional organisations. The defeat of communism and in this country socialism has dealt the far left a red card! (No pun intended!) As with other countries like Poland, the “lefties” have travelled through political expediency to places where they can govern or participate in democracy in a central position. They may still have sympathy for their former platforms but are politically aware that such views will not gain them trust or power (In terms of parliamentary majorities).
I would still argue that the Left is still the enemy within and the Labour party is Mutton dressed as Lamb!!!
The Labour Government is failing in its duty to protect are borders from a Russian build up of conventional and nuclear forces. Whilst I can understand the lefts wish to be assimilated by the Soviet Union, I cannot understand Labour’s negligent complacency and ultimately their failure to balance a resurgent Russia.
2. Which shows Tebbit in his true light as the political heir to Enoch Powell. His logic is impeccable but political sense woeful: the BNP’s economic policies are indeed of the protectionist left, however that is close to a complete irrelevance to most people who vote for them, for whom their far-right nationalism verging on (and in some cases into) outright racism is far more important.
They grew up
I’m going to repost a post I posted on the last posting thread. If I may. Not because I think it is especially scintillating or anything, but because I really would like an answer.
Can any Lib on here explain the logic of their EU position - which is apparently against an EU referendum? It seems to me painfully and blatantly obvious that the LDs should he calling, loudly, for a vote. Why?
First, because it is the right thing to do.
Second, because they wanted a referendum on the last version of the Constitution, so they look inconsistent in now saying No.
Third, because this issue deeply embarrasses Labour, something presumably the LDs wish to see continue? If the Lib Dems come out in favour of a vote that puts even more pressure on Brown.
Fourth, because the public wants a referendum by a huge majority. Supporting a referendum is popular. Opposing one is not.
Fifth, because in opposing a referendum, the Lib Dems risk being badly spanked by pro-referendum Tories in marginal English constituencies
So what the f***ing hell are the Lib Dems doing not supporting a vote??? It doesn’t make any sense. It doesn’t even make sense if they are passionately europhile, they can always campaign FOR a yes vote when and if their is a plebiscite.
Derrrr.
Sometimes you have to wonder if Lib Dems have a brain between them.
So - why are the Lib Dems not supporting a referendum?
All in all, Labour must count themselves fortunate that no party of the Far Left has emerged that can do significant damage to them.
Does it need to be a political party that damages them?
Labour posters always claim that traditional supporters don’t bother voting for Labour because they don’t need to as Labour would win anyway. This does not stand up to scrutiny as universal postal voting as removed any reason for the cannot be bothered tendency.
So could it be the case that Labour will at some point in the future fall from grace because the roots are no longer attached to the plant?
What constituency was the BNP result?
For me the answer is Thatcher - not only did she destroy communities, it seemed she destroyed other political ideologies - so much for fairness in a democracy!
I also must argue that this article seems to make no attempt to try and answer its own question - and merely gives the state of a few parties - maybe a better title would be “How important are parties of the left today.”
Its a real shame however that the original question couldn’t be answered - even though it would need a proper book to try and do so thoroughly, and I’m sure a few have been written. In my mind however, since Thatcher destroyed the left, it has splintered into different directions and other parties, maybe even other countries, but I think the majority are either fighting their way in the Labour party / fighting to build up the Socialist Workers Party (unfortunately far too factional for my liking) / are in minor parties like the CPGB or Residents Associations / or are fighting to make small changes to their community outside of the electoral process.
Afterall, any true left-wing politics actually put people first, and so no wonder they see our political system as the corrupt sham of a system that it is, and are fighting for fairness from the outside to shape a more tollerant society where people might actually listen to people on the left before it is too late.
The most unfortunate thing is how the Labour Party sold its soul and tricked many left-wing activists into believing it is still in politics for people rather than itself and the big businesses.
6:
seanT, I agree. This decision by Sir Menzies Campbell is, on the face of it, both baffling and strange. I dislike conspiracy theories, but the following consideration might illuminate:
i) The decision was probably made when the opinion polls showed a hung parliament as the most likely outcome at the next General Election.
ii) Brown’s holding a referendum and then loosing it from the ‘Yes’ platform might damage him severely and be the Tories’ only chance of winning an overall majority.
iii) A hung parliament would be infinitely more politically advantageous to the Liberal Democrats than one led by David Cameron.
8. “What constituency was the BNP result? ”
Epping Forest, held by Tory Eleonor Laing
A safe Tory seat, which judging by the by-election result, could well see the Lib Dems come second next time.
2005 result (minimal boundary changes next time):
Conservative: 23783 (53%)
Labour: 9425 (21%)
Liberal Democrat: 8279 (18.5%)
BNP: 1728 (3.9%)
UKIP: 1014 (2.3%)
Other: 631 (1.4%)
Majority: 14358 (32%)
Anthony Wells has just published the Conservatives’ Populus figs on his Polling Report - Lab 37, Con 36, LD 16 - polled over the bank holiday weekend.
Puts a new complexion on the Cameron fight-back.
Anthony Wells reports that Populus have now released their polling figures, showing Conservative 36%, Labour 37%, Lib Dem 16%, Others 11%. The poll is comparable to their standard monthly polls for the Times. The poll is slightly more recent than the Yougov poll, but like the Yougov poll, takes in the Bank Holiday weekend.
I beat the great Sean Fear in a photo finish - I’m the Huckabee of PB.com - brilliant but easily forgotten!
‘Most of the people who held such views must still be alive today.’
Yes, quite a few of them post on this site.
11 Andrea. Are your men in pin striped suits and violin cases about to rush to the polls ????
My kilted thousands have been held up by inexplicable and savage summer snow storms in Harpenden …. Drat !!!
…. rumour has it that a personage not too dis-similar from a Bushey Conservative was last seen in a crop spraying aircraft in clouds above north Hertfordshire !!
Will the Tories resort to any dirty trick to win a nationwide election ??.
I see the gap between me and Sean T is gradually narrowing.
See Anthony Wells web-site!
17. Jack, I should have used the preliminary round strategy: don’t post and being very low key…like Southall Labour campaign
13, 14 etc.:
I have to say that Benedict Brogan has some good sources. He was spot on with both those polling leaks.
20 Andrea. I should have used the North Korean strategy …. eliminate the opposition !! … present company excepted.
14 The Populus poll is NOT comparable to their normal Times polls . Those mean b****rs at Conservative Central Office only paid for a 500 sample . The monthly Times poll has a sample of around 1,500 .
Could just be a rogue poll of course and doesn’t say much about Cameron’s fight back if, even amid very bad news for Labour, the Tories are still a point behind.
23 That excludes the don’t knows/won’t says, so the sample size must have been somewhat greater than 530.
Anyway … I must away.
Congratulations to all the other candidates (Vote Grabbing Buggers), especially it would appear Sean Fear (Miserable Tory Wretch).
It’s been an absolute pleasure (Democracy is Much Overated) and after an honest hard fought campaign (Dirty Tricks Abounded) I hope you all enjoy an excellent weekend (Go Play On The Motorway).
Laters …………..
14&25 Lib Dem figure still looking too low?
BTW Any chance yet of cajoling you to look at Wales? Thanks
23. Mark..desperate to prove there is no Brown bounce based on local elections…and also desperate to prove there is no Tory rebound…what are you trying to say?
23 No but it’s more in line with what we all thought. You still look a touch too low for me, but at least it confirms YouGov as being alone in having you in the low teens
BTW Can you get digging on Swansea West information. Lack of candidate=lack of seriousness of intent I think
Breakdown of Populus figures is interesting - usual caveats about small samples apply.
Tories well ahead in Southeast as expected, but also 7% ahead in the Midlands. Labour well ahead in North and Scotland, with Lab/Tory neck and neck in Wales and Southwest. LibDems nowhere, everywhere, except northern England.
Classwise, the Tories are only ahead with the C1s.
25 Fair comment sample size seems to have been around 750 half the normal size .
28 And you are whom ?
31 In fact, Anthony Wells says once weighting by turnout is taken into account, the sample will have been c.1000.
23 A smaller sample but looking at the pattern across age & social groups it doesn’t look way out. Labour still leads across working age groups, Tories lead is in over 65’s (the Pensions Grab is a running sore there I found out at a recent event with high proportion of retired). It’s the low shares in 35-55 age group Tories should be most concerned about - legacy of the Thatcher/Major generation or not.
Is this the first time a Private Poll has been forced into the open
The Populus poll is curious as it virtually coincides with YouGov’s poll, which showed the same stable pattern as ICM’s from a few days earlier. The Bank Holiday could be relevant (it’s possibly still true that lower-income voters are more likely to time their holidays for national holidays, whereas wealthier voters are able to go when it suits them), but I think we’d all be wise to suspend judgment until further polls next week.
On Sean’s article, the voting system clearly has a lot to do with it. Virtually every country that has some form of PR also has parties of the far left and far right capable of getting 10% or more. Germany is a good example - the Left Party is getting a steady 25% in the former GDR, but it’s also getting comfortably over 5% in the west, even though you’d expect the long years of rivalry to have made German voters pretty hostile to anything with a strong eastern base.
Essentially people with left-wing ideals have a choice: they can campaign for the undiluted package, knowing that they’re unlikely to see success but believing that one has to try, or they can ‘compromise with the electorate’, in the phrase I used to hear dismissively in the 80s. Labour has made conscious decisions to do that several times, most obviously with Clause 4 but also in eschewing higher income tax, renationalising the railways (even though that could be quite popular in the short term) and keeping Trident; in several cases it’s not just a question of compromise but of accepting that the electorate is right. In return the electorate has elected successive Labour governments that deliver on public service investment, the minimum wage, overseas aid and so on.
I’m basically a pragmatist and have always felt it necessary to listen to what the electorate was willing to accept, so I joined Labour when I was 21 and supported Tony Blair in the 90s and since. I’ve never despised anyone who made the opposite choices, but I don’t think they are achieving very much for the people in need who we are trying to help. And as long as we have FPTP in Britain, I can’t see a serious left challenge arising. If it had been going to, we’d have seen it during Tony’s period.
35 I think its money. Since the old USSR and Comintern went away there’s been no big source of funding for the far left. UKIP by contrast can always find a well heeled nutter like Sykes
35. Surely the accepted wisdom is that Bank Holiday polling favours Labour, not the Tories - look at the evolution of Populus’s tracker poll in 2005. In which case the conclusion would be that the Tories could be back in the lead.
The far left has never organised in the way the far right parties have.The latter have organised around one or two issues ie immigration and Europe,the difference being in whether you’re into big or small govt.
The far left just haven’t had any key long term issues that concern voters in the way that both UKIP and the BNP do
Looks like Sean Fear’s lead is now unassailable - it could have been so different if someone had wound up seanT into a stream of bile-filled invective, but everyone’s been so bloody reasonable today. Vote within the next 11 minutes or live with the consequences.
38. ukip are not ‘far right’..
apologies for lower case - dautghter on lap
35. Yes, i had you down as a pragmatist on this one.
I think the interesting thing will be in the meduim to long term to see how the Labour party react to a GE defeat. I am not being partisan here they may well win the next election and even the one after that (I hope not!).
It will be interesting to see the fight between pragmatist and ideologue. From my point of view, it is better the Labour party is pragmatic than dogmatic. There has been a major shift to the right in British Politics over the last 30 years, that cannot be denied. But Labour becoming as electable as the tories and vice versa is a good thing. It means better stewardship of the economy and the country over the longterm in Labour and Tory periods.
I do think though that the electoral system has failed to adjust to this new politics or maybe it is the political parties? After all we had Butskillism in the 50 & 60’s and this did not present problems in terms of the pendulim swinging back and forth?
bbc news has eu constitution and referendum as fourth lead item on evening news. seems i am not the only obsessive. hooray!
Far left? On the periphery, marginalised, tooting from the fringe, where it belongs
35 well all that effort put into increasing the size of the underclass, ensuring youth unemployment is higher than 10 years ago and widening the gap between rich and poor is certainly paying off.
Thank God for the left, the true friend of the working class.
Good article Sean. One small mistake though, the Alderton result is in Epping Forest DC, not Loughton BC.
I held my vote until the last minute to use it tactically…as Stodge was at 8 votes and HenryG at 7…I voted Henry, so there won’t be a last place!
And at the very last minute a postal vote from Na h-Eileanan an lar arrived to allow Jack to pass Nick by 1 vote…recount?
42 - “seems i am not the only obsessive”
Surely there’s a difference between reporting it every so often and going on about it every day
The voting for the poster of the year has now closed and the final tally was taken at 6.30. The votes will be held at a secure location overnight (beware unofficial exit polls!) and the official results will be featured in a special supplement tomorrow morning.
Congratulations to everyone who took part in what was a very strong field of candidates.
Double Carpet (Guest Editor)
The Libdem figure will rise during the GE. Why! because some Labour voters, when asked by polling organisations what party they intend voting for, they give their party allegiance, Labour. Come the general election, they vote tactically, Libdem. Therefore Labour’s percentage will drop and the Libdems will rise.
This is common in the South and South West where Labour voters switch to keep the Tory out.
49. Will Labour be finnishing dave off in an October election then? Or will they let dave off the hook?
Is it safe to assume that the conservatives were behind the poll leak and are happy to see it out in the open, hence Brogan’s being very specific with the figures?
With many things pointing towards Brown benefitting from an October election this looks like part of a strategy to force Brown to go long.
Congratulations to Sean Fear by the way, fitting that his victory comes as one of his perspicacious columns heads the page.
49. This is common in the South and South West where Labour voters switch to keep the Tory out.
Ok lets suppose Labour win and all these clever Labour voters have switched to the LD’s. Will Brown still be legitamate in England if the Tories outpoll Labour?
40. UKIP don’t believe in global warming, or that passive smoking can harm health. That’s nutty enough to be far right in my book.
51. With many things pointing towards Brown benefitting from an October election this looks like part of a strategy to force Brown to go long.
Labour are not going for an October election! It is Bullshit to say they are!!! There is no evidence to suggest that an October election is anything but hot air!
Brother Sean
The far left are alive and well and in retrenching
Trade unions - break with New Labour
Build a new workers’ party
Rail workers’ union (RMT) general secretary Bob Crow broadened the debate about the need for a new workers’ party when he addressed the National Shop Stewards Network recently. He said the Labour Party was ‘finished’, and indicated that the RMT may field candidates in the Greater London Assembly and Mayoral elections next year.
Roger Bannister, CNWP National Secretary
His welcome remarks were featured in an article by George Monbiot in the guardian a few days later, which criticised the majority of trade union leaders for continuing to support New Labour despite the fact that they get virtually nothing in return for their millions.
Highlighting prime minister Gordon Brown’s decision to put former CBI boss Digby Jones in his cabinet (”the most Neanderthal boss the CBI has ever had”), Monbiot portrays this as a deliberate act of provocation, of calling the bluff of the union leaders. Coupled with Brown’s appointment of Damon Buffini to key government quangos, (Buffini’s private equity company made a third of the Automobile Association’s workforce redundant), it is difficult not to go along with Monbiot’s provocation theory!
But it also has to be recognised that Brown has more serious aims. He is sending messages to big business that New Labour is safe in his hands, that he does not herald any shift to the left. The privatisation of public services will continue and the draconian anti-union laws will remain on the statute book.
But will Tories vote tactically in the North and Scotland. Shall be highly interesting to see what happens to the Tory votein places like City Durham where Labour have never been beaten but which theoretically at least are now in range for the Lib Dems
Gordon Brown’s decision to put former CBI boss Digby Jones in his cabinet -
Thought Comrade Digby was a minister of State or even something below that but above “our Nick”?
40. Sorry to disagree Sean, but whether UKIP are a far-right party or not is probably a matter of political semantics. There’s plenty of evidence that it is. In some ways, it’s the reverse of the position of the BNP which as Robusticus said at [2], is technically a left-wing party in many of its lesser known policies.
Obviously UKIP isn’t a sub-Nazi offshoot like the BNP used to be before they decided to get serious about elections and ‘compromise with the electorate’ themselves, but their economic policies at the last general election were a great deal more radical than anything the Tories proposed at any time in opposition or government - the scale of the tax cuts, for example - and the relative isolationist position of UKIP is also a policy that most would see as ‘right-wing’.
I’ll happily concede that UKIP does draw its support from across the political spectrum as being anti- or pro-EU can’t really be fitted into the left-right axis, but the majority of its support must come from people who would identify themselves as being right-of-centre as opposed to on the left.
56.” Shall be highly interesting to see what happens to the Tory votein places like City Durham where Labour have never been beaten but which theoretically at least are now in range for the Lib Dems ”
The tories already collapsed in 2005 in City of Durham
Talking about the lefties, i think this piece on the Ex-Soviet forces build up to threaten are liberty is on topic:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2007/08/23/wrussia123.xml
How any self respecting Labour person can not concede that Russia is a threat is beyond me?
Visiting quickly……..
Have the esteemed members of this site seen the suggested results of
the private Conservative Poll on Conshome yet ???
The tories already collapsed in 2005 in City of Durham
On present poll form the LD will collapse at the next election UK wide! It must be very worrying for our sandal wearing, bearded friends! I don’t think it is as bad as the polls make out for the LD’s anyway. THe only problem for them in Ming is will he have the energy to bring the LD vote up as most LD GE campaigns have done in recent years?
I do hope the LD’s have not got one foot in the electoral grave by keeping skeleton as leader?
59. Yes but they still had 10% even now. In other similar seats there’s still upwaqrds of 20% Tory votes. BTW Re-paste discusion if you have a view:
219 Firstly I think miniscule chance of 2007 election for reasons Mr Smithson has given ad nauseam but as you ask…
Agree Cardiff North. But Montgomeryshire? Glyn Davies would put a large dent in Lembit’s majority but even he admits an election this year would give him nowhere near the time needed to build any sort of momentum.
Vale of Glamorgan. Hm toughie I thought the Conservatives beat most predictions by nearly taking this in May. However John Smith is Lib Dem like in his limpet tendencies would be knife edge struggle. I actually think the Tories would find CW&PS easier given their strength in that area and the resuls from May.
Labour Blaenau Gwent. Don’t know. If an election was held this year GB would hold it only because he thought he was certain to win. Blaenau Gwent therefore may very well stay loyal to the Law faction. I actually think he’d be under more threat in a close election nationally.
Plaid Ynys Mon most likely if they can squeeze others. They’ll make progress in Llanelli, but if it’s 2009 or later they may just give Ms Griffith a run for her money perhaps just perhaps. Ceredigion. Before the deal I felt yes. After I think the Lib Dems will find it easier to rally support particularly from Plaid/Lib Dem waverers. They fight hard anyway. Not to say Plaid couldn’t win but Mark Williams has a much bigger fighting chance now
For same reason I now think the Tories should have little problems in Aberconwy
Lib Dems. Concur although they shuld make progress along the M4. If 2009 or later keep an eye on Swansea West and especially now Newport East
by Punter August 28th, 2007 at 8:44 am
Punter,
I agree with your longer term view for Plaid in Llanelli (and would also add Neath a few years later).
I am not sure whether LDs can maintain their momentum in Swansea West or Newport East though…..they seem to have shot themselves very badly in the foot in the WA coalition negotiations, which will have set them back
by penddu August 28th, 2007 at 12:29 pm
223 TBH Most voters have short memories of these things, it’s Plaid who are taking the bigger risk in Aberconwy and Ceredigion on this. Swansea West you maybe right. They need to get their act together. Unbelievable they let Labour select before them. However two caveats one Labour’s choice offers some easy targets and PC they let themselves be hyped up in May and fell flatter on their faces there than the Lib Dems. So if the Lib Dems do get their act together it’s unlikely that’ll have any other competitors to Labour. Neath we’ll see. I’d have wanted to see greater progress in May to bank on that.
But Newport East easily their best performance of the night. Ironically if they’d won MG would have been out. Both they and the Tories performed strongly in Newport. Assuming no GE the same day next year I think Labour will take a big hit in the Council Elections from both. Like Llanelli for PC. Big ask in one go but definitely one to watch medium term. In terms of momentum Newport as a whole is clearly shifting from being monolithically Labour in both seats, to something in the West that the Tories and in the East Lib Dems may have hopes for even outside 1983 type years for Labour
by Punter August 28th, 2007 at 12:44 pm
Just scanning a range of blogs and both Iain Dale and Dizzy seem to think that things are afoot with a possible election. Add to that the anon labour(?) poster from earlier today and it’s either got substance or Brown has suddenly found delight in bluffing big.
On the subject of spin I suggest people read Gilligan’s Evening Standard column showing the extent of lies about him in the now infamous Compass report. It’d be hilarious if it wasn’t so depressing.
A choice extract - “One article cited as proving Johnson’s “support” for George W Bush actually has him describing the President as “serially incompetent”, a “cross-eyed warmonger” and “maniac” whose re-election in 2004 was “the most dismal awakening of my life”.”
http://www.thisislondon.co.uk/news/article-23410465-details/How+Boris+quotes+were+spun/article.do
It is a good job though that the evil empire and there British host the Labour Party were defeated.
I don’t think i could of eaten boiled horse meat and grewl for my lunchers!
62 Dont get ahead of yourself. In Scotland in 92 they dropped practically half their vote and held all their seats! That’s to leave aside what Tory voters in seats like Blaydon may do, which even you may concede the tories are unlikely to sweep but where the Lib Dems may have a shout and the Tory vote knows it
60. With respect, why on earth would Russia want to present itself as a threat to the West? These are the countries that buy its natural resources and are the countries that saw off the Soviet Union - a much more powerful beast than today’s Russia, and with fewer countries in their own alliance.
Russia’s aggression is mostly about domestic consumption, but to the extent that it is serious, it is an attempt to be taken seriously after the Yeltsin years when it was a laughing stock, and to resetablish a sphere of influence in the same way that other great powers have.
Above all though, Russia’s build up of forces is aimed at China. Look at China’s material needs in a growing economy; look at Siberia’s resources; look at the Chinese military build up. Put yourself in the Kremlin. What would you do?
Really, Putin should be looking to ally with the West, but he’ll want to do so from a position of greater strength than Russia has had in the last decade or so.
58. Of course UKIP are on ‘the right’ (whatever that means these days) - I was objecting to the classification of them as ‘far right’.
Being patriotic, pro-low taxes, generally libertarian, and in favour of self-government and reduced immigration are fairly standard conservative/rightwing positions.
UKIP may be eccentric, dandruffy and slightly risible - which is why I generally don’t vote for them - but they are hardly stormtroopers.
64 Well if the Times Populus backs up the Tory Populus that will surely put to bed any idea of an Election this year
64 - That should be ‘lies about Boris Johnson’, I wasn’t referring to Gilligan (who is a wronged man in a different way).
66. Good point.
64. The October Election is pure bull shit!
:lol: 
If Labour do not call an election in that case they are Chicken!
Just because a few Blogger hosts mention elections does not mean they know what they are talking about! Have they ever worked in a GE election campaign? Do they know what goes on? Yes one individual was a candidate in a seat in an election but he was on the ground in the seat, being fed stuff processed by the central campaign machine.
I don’t give a F*ck if there is an election or not but it is just downright decietful to say there will be one!
61, Sorry, Red blushy thing !!
67.Above all though, Russia’s build up of forces is aimed at China. Look at China’s material needs in a growing economy; look at Siberia’s resources; look at the Chinese military build up. Put yourself in the Kremlin. What would you do?
The Russians are on joint exercises with the Chinese.
I don’t think alot of people get it in the west but Russia and China are not soley concerned with trade and material standards of living. Of course some of it is for domestic consumption (Shows or aggression) but who are the Russians threatening with the nuclear and non nuclear forces - Certainly not China.
It would be like France targeting missiles on Britain or vice versa (If SeanT was PM ….:lol:).
I am not saying we should expect mushroom clouds all over Britain, i am saying that in Defence terms we should not be left with are trousers down.
52
Of course Brown will be legitimate in England, in the same way that the last Conservative government was legitimate in Scotland and Wales. We are still the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, or has something happened I don’t know about?
I also believe that the full name of the Conservative Party is the Conservative and Unionist Party, unless thats been changed!
Those of us, who believe that an autumn election is a possibility are not being deceitful, we happen to believe that there is going to be one.If we are proved wrong, then its an honest error.
67.With respect, why on earth would Russia want to present itself as a threat to the West?
Why did Japan attack the U.S. or Germany attack Russia in WWII?
Obviously there are historical reasons about the Japanese attack on the U.S. Fleet to prevent the Japanese from being cut off from oil and similar reasons with Germany.
But they still happened and defence and the defence capibility is about hedging your bets and retaining an insurance policy or several as i advocate.
Anyway the British forces are in a complete mess at this time. We have a force of about 15,000 deployed and the Army is overstretched - something very wrong there!
Conservative government was legitimate in Scotland and Wales -
I always thought Labour said it was not and thats why they implemented devolution?
Those of us, who believe that an autumn election is a possibility are not being deceitful, we happen to believe that there is going to be one.If we are proved wrong, then its an honest error.
No your not being decietful, we are a free country (Or we were until some of Labour’s dranconian legislation was implemented! :lol:). You are entitled to advocate an October election, what i object to is spin in the media - eminating from the Labour party. It just serves to damage politics by spinning this stuff and then it not happening. I thought Brown was an end to spin?
73. “I don’t think alot of people get it in the west but Russia and China are not solely concerned with trade and material standards of living”. So what are they concerned with? Suicide? I still can’t think of a single good reason why Putin or his successor would want a long-term antagonistic relationship with the countries of Western and Central Europe or North America.
Just because the announcements about missile targetting have been made with reference to the West doesn’t mean it’s only the West that’s heard them. Likewise the military build-up. Putin is above all a Realist, in the Russian tradition. He is responding to what other governments are doing and what he believes they are likely to do, or at least are likely to have the potential to do.
Perhaps he is still concerned about US bases in the Arctic, Eastern Europe, Turkey, Iraq, Afghanistan and surrounding countries, and Japan. That probably feels like encirclement because that’s exactly what it is. A gentle reminder that Russia still has her own interests - especially in her own back yard - is to be expected.
10. Fascinating, ta. A fairly despicable abnegation of principle, for reasons of low politics, if you are right. I suspect you might be.
Wonder if other Lib Dems agree with your analysis.
76
Could you provide me with the name of any Labour politician that questioned the legitimacy of the last Conservative government’s right to rule in Wales and Scotland? if they did they were wrong.
A Link has been posted on the previous thread (post - 49) to the “populus poll” the Telegraph refered to.
78. Yes but the Russians do not need a dozen new aircraft carriers and Nuclear missile carring subs to prove this point! Flying planes around the edge of UK airspace is not looking after their backyard either. Do we fly planes near them in the same way - I doubt it!
Russia already has masses of strategic and substrategic Nuclear weapons already. The U.S. missile defence shield is completly incapable of preventing a missile strike.
As i said before miltary planning is not just about threats now but in the future. The UK is severly under resoursed in terms of its operational strength and capability. I am a bit concerned as a Conservative you do not recognise this!
Think i will move to the US, if Tory defence policy is going to be the same as Labour!!!
I was against the rule of the last conservative government over Wales and Scotland and I would consider thatm for labour to do teh same for England, would be just as unacceptable. I’ve long believed in the need for a federal UK where its constituent parts were given a greater degree of autonomy. There’s a good reason why the UK has never been one entity but one with differing politics/legal and education systems etc.
56. It’s highly possible the Conservative vote will go up in the City of Durham.
Durham Lib Dems do nothing but rubbish Conservatives anyway, and it didn’t go unnoticed by the Conservative candidate in 2005, Ben Rogers, a very pleasant young man and a friend of human rights campaigner and fellow Conservative candidate James Mawdsley), who in his concession speech spoke warmly of Labour’s honorable campaign, which is more than he could say for the Lib Dems. They forget that they came in third in 1992 and 1997. The Lib Dems didn’t win the city council in 2003, Labour lost it and such was disatisfaction with Blair, as well lingering memories of the previous Labour administration, that Labour didn’t have much hope of regaining it in May. I myself was a Labour candidate and I wish I’d had a pound for those voters who voted Lib Dem locally because they “knew them” but were Labour in the general.
Roberta Blackman-Woods is tirelessly hardworking MP
but it will be a hard fought contest once the election comes.
The overall swing from the Lib Dems to Labour in May might have been a far from impressive 2.5%, on 2003, but it was 5.9% in the city wards (all votes matter in the general). Locally the Lib Dems dominate the city, where they always have, 1995-1999, being the exception) and are still represented well in the villages.
It’s the villages (most of which are former mining), rather than the city, which has determined parliamentary elections since 1935. The then SDP/Alliance came within 1200 votes of ousting Labour in 1983, in what was an abysmal year for Labour nationally.
76 - devolution was brought in to placate the Scots and Welsh who wanted home rule. Remember the Kilbrandon Report? As we still have the UK then the previous Conservative Govt was legitimate even in oor eens.
James Mawdsley - Is he not the bloke who scooped out another inmates Brain in Wakefield prison and ate it or is it another one?
83 Ukpaul totaly agree, and on your comments on legalising drugs as well as PR.
Hell I will be turning into a anti authoritarian anti government so called Lib dem, lol
64. UK Paul. The problem with Gilligans article is that it’s also using selective quotes and unlike the Compass piece it is misleading. Boris has been an extreme pro American and pro Bush in all the articles I have ever read of his. This is exactly the opposite of what Gilligan is suggesting. Since he’s become a right-wing commentator I believe he’s lost his objectivity. (I agree though that he has some reason to be bitter)
(OT. I remember you saying you liked animation. ‘Ratatouille’is up there with the best)
79:
Yes, I was merely indulging in guesswork, but seeing how some of the people who have surrounded themselves around Sir Ming carry on I may not be far off the mark. The sad irony is that a Labour landslide at the next General Election is beginning to look inevitable, yet it will be the Liberal Democrats suffering the catastrophic losses while the Tories remain relatively unscathed. It merely demonstrates this tactic (if that is what it was) of protecting Gordon Brown was injudicious and naïve.
86 Rather unfunny
84 Might well do 10% is pretty low already. But there are other similar seats with Tory shrares of 20%. Durham was just a case in point
90. Sorry!
Dave Hawk, I would be very suprised, IT IS REALLY a two horse race in Durham and the Liberal Democrats are well entrenched. The villages are more split than you suggest.
I lived there 25 years ago, and then the Lib Dems were not far behind the Conservatives in Council seats, and as you say in 1983 almost won the seat at the General Election. The villages have changed demographically and several of them politically over the years as well. The Lib Dems have everything going for them there, close second, tradition over the last 20 years and people knowing they can win. I suspect that if the Lib Dems make the odd gains at the next General, Durham will be one, it might be the only one.
The main aim of many Conservative voters will be to remove Labour.
82
Yes but the Russians do not need a dozen new aircraft carriers and Nuclear missile carring subs to prove this point! Flying planes around the edge of UK airspace is not looking after their backyard either. Do we fly planes near them in the same way - I doubt it!
Not only is your political knowledge faulty, your military knowledge is even worse.
The Royal Air Force has probed Soviet/Russian airspace constantly. I can recommend Paul Lashmar’s book, ‘Spy Flights of the Cold War’.
Even as we post a Nimrod of 51sqn, (look them up) will be over the Baltic or brushing Russian airspace its ELINT/AEO’s scanning Russian frequencies. British Submarines will be entering Russian waters doing the same thing.
During the cold war, the Northern Lights made monitoring Murmansk very difficult, Soviet submarines could leave under the cover of ‘clutter’. A team of Norwegian and British Marines, lived on an iceflow, a short distance from the Murmansk base, and put monitoring equipment into the sea, so Soviet Submarines could still be detected.
I suspect the decline of the far left mirrors the decline of belief in the power of government. The usual mantra of the far left (and for that matter the far right) is that “the government should do something about it”. But if you don’t believe that governments have the power to change things much (whether because of the the growing power of the EU, globalisation or whatever) then why vote for a party promising even more government interference?
http://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm199192/cmhansrd/1992-01-15/Orals-1.html
Column 955
Mr. Quentin Davies : Is not it a fact that the principal political risk against which British industry needs insurance is the risk of a Labour Government? In the event of the Labour party coming to power British industry would be overtaxed, over-inflated, over-regulated and overburdened with additional costs such as the minimum wage.
88. Roger, you may be a bewildered idiot on many things, but you are right on Ratatouille. A truly brilliant film. Saw it a few months ago.
As we have discussed before, so many of the best modern movies are animations. I saw the Incredibles again the other day - fantastically watchable and entertaining, even the second time around.
For some reason people making animated movies seem much more creative, inspired and experimental than people making standard Hollywood movies.
Why? I guess the fact they haven’t got actors with egos to worry about must help. Animators can avoid a lot of hassle. And they haven’t got to pay those actors billions, either - which means the film-makers can spend more cash on the script.
“Cars” is jolly good, too.
89. The Lib Dems could, of course, change their minds on the referendum. Seeing how the wind is blowing they would we well advised to do so. Opposing a vote is idiotic, wrong, capricious, sad, entirely pointless and, in some constituencies, political suicide.
Lib Dems originally split away from Labour, and pulled away votes from Labour, while Blair pulled away votes from Conservative.
Lib Dem, with Blair gone, are returning to Labour. Brown is also losing many who previously were attracted to Blair.
Labour have lost 15% of their 2005 voters, according to ICM Guardian.
They never mention the BNP in their polls. If Labour voters are not leaving labour for Cameron, where else could they be going? Others is 12% in YouGov poll. If the trend of Labour losing voters continues at the current rate, Brown’s lead will soon evaorate.
“Roberta Blackman-Woods is tirelessly hardworking MP but it will be a hard fought contest once the election comes. ”
I once emailed to her office asking for an info…at first (within a couple of days) I got a reply with the info I was searching for…then after a couple of weeks I got another reply (by a different staff member) saying they couldn’t fully reply…
Not the greatest example of office organization!
93
here you are. martin, read and inwardly digest!
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/No._51_Squadron_RAF
82. I’ll make this my last post on the subject as it’s a bit of a side-show to the main string (though possibly more related to the question Sean poses at the head of the thread in that what happened to the Far Left was that they lost their inspiration as well as their sponsor).
I fully agree with you that the British forces are underresourced and overstretched at the moment. The government should be looking to up manpower significantly in the post-2001 world and should get the troops out of Iraq as soon as is practically possible.
On your other point though, I just can’t agree. It’s like saying that Britain was acting agressively in the late ’30s when it was rearming heavily. Russia is reacting to threats to it, not the other way round. You mention the missile-defence shield. I agree with you that it won’t be effective but presumably the Americans think differently otherwise they wouldn’t be doing it and in any case, as you say yourself, countries will act according to potential threats in the future, not just those now. What if the shield is effective? Or if those who sit behind it act as if it is? Put it this way: how would you feel if Russia was building one? In the topsy-turvy world of nuclear weapons, shields are weapons of offence and missiles weapons of defence. An effective shield provides its country with a first-strike capability: that is a threat.
By the way, who is the American shield aimed at? Not terrorists who don’t have missiles, and not ‘rogue states’ who couldn’t deliver them that way without advertising to the world what they were doing. It can only be those who would have a second-strike capacity.
Remember also Russia’s history and geography. It has been invaded and occupied time and time again; it has practically no natural barriers. It has suffered grievously from the Mongols in the thirteenth century to the Nazis in the twentieth and many times in between. Putin’s actions have to be understood in these contexts. And as I say, China is the country on Russia’s doorstep with rapidly growing material needs.
You say Russian and Chinese forces are conducting joint exercises. Fine, but Stalin allied with Hitler and then with Churchill and Roosevelt; these allinces didn’t prevent the Great Patriotic War, or the Cold War. And given these exercises, how else could Putin maintain that relationship (and the Chinese can be touchy about these things), while building up his defence? Answer: nominally point them elsewhere.
Of course it makes sense to be vigilant and keep options open - and that means having the ability to enact those options if necessary, but I do think you’re drawing the wrong conclusions about what the Kremlin’s up to.
Apologies for the length of the post.
Galloway won Bethnal Green and Stepney in 05? Shome mishtake shurely. He won Bethnal Green and Bow (as it was re-christened in 97).
As for the students Sean mentioned, similar beliefs can be found most days at Comment is Free. Personally, I treasure the late Sir Kingsley Amis’ anecdote about Robert Conquest being asked by his publisher for a possible new title for The Great Terror after the collapse of the USSR (and archives which showed that Conquest had, if anything, underestimated the scale of the killing). Conquest reportedly replied, ‘How about “I Told You So, You F**king Fools”?’
38. ukip are not ‘far right’..
Quite. Politics is not 1 dimensional, with a left, a middle and a right, like a line drawn on a Bearded Sociologist’s blackboard. It is at least 2 dimensional.
Socialism is control of the people.
Conservatism is the people’s self control.
Liberalism is absence of control.
Notice how similar are International Socialism, National Socialism and Islamic Caliphatism.
Any comments on a possible October 4th election?
http://www.iaindale.blogspot.com/
http://dizzythinks.net/2007/08/unconfirmed-rumour-whats-happening-on.html
http://broganblog.dailymail.co.uk/
100 The best Russian weapon remains the climate I think
45 Yes, I put that down wrongly.
100 Russia has often been invaded, but has just as often been an expansionist power.
101 Nice quote, and you are quite right about Bethnal Green.
104 I’m reading a book about Napoleon’s invasion of Russia. I hadn’t realised that, if anything, the Russians suffered even heavier casualties than the French did, during Napoleon’s retreat.
1812 by Zamoyski? Reading it myself right now. Splendid book.
103 If true Labours private polls (Ms Matthison?) must be telling Gordon a different story - perhaps he’s really a different poltician from the hesitant man of 15 years and thinks that if he does another Shock & Awe attack like he did in July he’ll carry all before him.
There is almost no precedent for a Govt with a healthy majority calling an election this early into a parliament. The Queen would be quite within her rights to ask “what for”? If the answer is that Gordon wants to avoid the constitution to a referendum then he (not the Tories) will be forced to make this a centrepiece of the campaign. Just like Baldwin and protection. The only obvious precedent.
107 Yes. The Russians suffered enormously as they were pursuing the French across territory that had been badly ravaged, and also marching across country to cut them off.
84 A brave attempt to talk up the Conservative vote in the City Of Durham but the fact is their vote is still going down , In all the wards in May they polled just 4% of the vote 1,100 votes .
100 By the way, who is the American shield aimed at?
Congratulations, that really was a dumb post.
A shield is not aimed at anybody. A shield is a defense, hence defense shield.
how would you feel if Russia was building one? - Fine, as it is a ‘defense shield’, it is not a threat to anyone.
The Usual suspects of Useful Idiots complain of Democracies having a defensive capability but don’t object to Russia giving Iran a Anti-Missile shield.
Why do they not want democracies to have a defense?
When was the last time an election was called at such short notice and as unexpectedly as one being called now would be. The parties may be geared up, but are the local authorities up and down the country who have to run the thing? They normally spend months preparing, at the moment they’re in the process of doing their regular electoral roll canvass. The whole thing could be chaos!
109. The one way to ensure an uncertain outcome to a snap general election is to make it a referendum on the EU referendum. The whole campaign might get overtaken, and who knows where it would end.
Silly mistake. Much easier, for GB, to promise a vote after a GE, then postpone it until… 2010… 2012… who cares…
Because: chances are if he calls a referendum, lots of other countries will feel obliged to do the same - Holland, Denmark, Sweden, Poland, etc - and one of them will almost certainly vote No, before Britain even prints the leaflets. Problem solved.
It’s what Blair did, and I imagine Brown is starting to see why.
Newsnight is leading on the referendum question tonight. This story ain’t going away.
113 (con) - doing it when the electoral roll canvass is being done is particularly relevant, because there will be thousands of people who think they are registered who are not.
113 Hadn’t thought of Electoral Roll - presume that’s part of why Autumn isn’t a good time for elections. Could be a lot of people registered still in their old constituencies.
105. True, but the two are related. If you’re looking for security, then you can either get to a natural barrier or else give yourself as much space as possible.
106/7. I’ve not read that one, but I did read War and Peace while travelling on the Trans-Sibirian last year (seemed appropriate), and while obviously a novel, Tolstoy went to great lengths to get his facts right. And then place highly dodgy spin on them. Still, he gives a very good account of both what went on and the motivations as to why it went on.
114 - Baldwin lost.
Calling a snap election now (for early October), and turning it into a referendum on the EU constitution would be a “brave” decision (in Yes Minister terms). I don’t think that’s an attractive prospect for Brown.
119 - of course not Sean. My whole point is that you can’t just call an election under half way through a parliament without a good reason. It’s unprecedented. And short of the European question can anyone think of a genuinely good reason (ie. not “Labour are ahead in the polls”)
The evening standard vindicates Boris and exposes both the labour research group who attacked him and weak journalism at the BBC for whom the labour spin fitted all their predjudices. Is there a market on Boris - if he is not the favourite he is good value - can we short the bbc ?
I have absolutely no inside knowledge on the election date, but I have just had the first batch of my leaflets printed, and will be doing a pilot distribution shortly to gauge local response.
In other words, I am ready when you are Mr Brown
Please feel free to e-mail me if you want to receive an electronic version.
110 The Russian willingness to take casualties in defence of the Motherland has often been underestimated.
After the collapse of the Soviet union there was a historic opportunity for Russia to take her proper place as a respected and welcome member of the West - we blew that opportunity by being tied into cold war thinking and mocking Yeltsin.
One of the most cogent analyses of the entire EU Constitution question is in the Scottish Herald today.
Yertiz:
http://tinyurl.com/ynjuhk
Now I am off to watch telly. G’nite.
123 As with the Roman Republic. It’s very hard to beat an opponent who simply refuses to accept that, by the accepted conventions of war at the time, he has been beaten, and keeps on fighting till he wins.
114 - “Newsnight is leading on the referendum question tonight. This story ain’t going away.”
I thought it might have gone away by now, I must admit. Usually objections to do with Europe get quickly dismissed as eurosceptic loony ravings, because sometimes we eurosceptics can sound a little, well, irascible on the subject. Evidently the ‘manifesto promise’ angle is proving to be a durable obstacle - as well it should.
“100 By the way, who is the American shield aimed at?
Congratulations, that really was a dumb post.
A shield is not aimed at anybody. A shield is a defense, hence defense shield”
Oh dear. Why do you think these systems were banned during the Cold War? They are not defensive at all - quite the opposite. Their presence destabilises the international defence system because any country that has one has the ability to attack without being attacked back. That might sound superficially attractive to people who haven’t thought about it much. The Americans and Soviets did think about it in the 1970s and sensibly decided they weren’t a good idea and neither side should have one. Reagan flirted with ‘Star Wars’ of course but decided not to go down that route.
A defence shield is always aimed at someone implicitly - those countries that possess the technology for which the system is designed to protect against. That ain’t North Korea or Al Qaida. It’s the same princple as the Kaiser’s High Seas Fleet. In theory, it could have sailed anywhere to protect against or to threaten any navy (it being a fleet on the high seas, hence High Seas Fleet). In practice, there was only one navy it was designed to oppose as there was only one that justified its scale and fighing specifications (the abilty to fight in shallow waters, such as those in the North Sea).
110 It was amazing the insults the Boyars gave Barclay De Tolly for pursuing a scorched earth strategy and luring Napoleon deeper and deeper into Russia. He knew fighting Napoleon immediately would only mean another Austerlitz, and once General Winter got his teeth into the Grande Armee things would be different. History proved him right of course, but I find it hard to imagine what other nation could have withstood the suffering of Hitler and Napoleon without collapsing
105 The same could easily be said of America Mr Fear
Another couple of things for Brown to consider.
1) by calling an election so early he would be sending out a signal by calling an election by choice and not by necessity that he expects a personal mandate at least as good as Blair’s in 2005 if not better. If the outcome were to result in a hung parliament then he will have forfeited the moral right to lead the Govt. This would not necessarily be the case if the election were forced upon him by the statute of limitations.
2) on a lighter note - it would seem strange at a time when Brown is advocating pay restraint in the public sector for him to call an election and put a load of money in the pockets of local authority workers who get paid for a day off work to man the polling stations and count the ballots. What about all those schools which would have to close for a day as well?
115. Good time for vote stealing though
97 - Tapestry: “Lib Dems originally split away from Labour, and pulled away votes from Labour”
Actually it was Labour which originally split away from the Liberal Party, and pulled away votes from Liberals. You could consider SDP as a group of returnees, who came back to join the Liberal Party, which changed its name to Liberal Democrats. After all, the Conservative and Unionist Party has had different names during its history, as well.
128 Zamoyski argues there was no real scorched earth strategy at all. The Russians were simply afraid of Napoleon and retreated relentlessly before him. More by luck than judgment, that was the right strategy.
But it depended on Napoleon making the mistake of hanging around in Moscow for far too long, and then being far too half-hearted in his retreat. Had he gone into winter quarters in Vilnius in good time, and then resumed warfare in the Spring, the Russian strategy would have fallen apart.
“105 The same could easily be said of America Mr Fear ” Paul Johnson, in the Birth of the Modern, draws some very neat parallels between the US and Russian versions of the Manifest Destiny in the Nineteenth Century. The Russians were rather more brutal though.
130 - Good point. Get Tapestry on the case.
129 The American Indians would love to know how I’m sur