Will Populus disclose the Tory poll?
August 31st, 2007Anthony Wells of UKPolling Report emails me to tell me that he has asked Populus to disclose the poll referred to by Benedict Brogan in his blog.
He wrote” “Tories say privately their internal Populus poll paints a completely different picture - the parties are level pegging and Mr Cameron’s approval rating is climbing”.
Anthony’s view is that there is a requirement to disclose under the British Polling Council’s transparency rules.
Normally leaks of “private polls” don’t name the pollster. I’m writing this on my phone in a Eurotunnel train and am not in a position to support Anthony.
It will be interesting to see what transpires.
Mike Smithson
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This will be good. Spin or reality?
I thought actual figures had to be quoted for that to happen. Is that not right
Punter - I think so too, but the Daily Telegraph gave figures of Lab 37%, Con 36% (and the fact that both the Telegraph and Brogan had information about the poll suggests CCHQ was briefing about their internal polls).
Sorry to come over all shy but..
I have not believed the stories of an election this year however I discovered today that the Labour Party are conducting an urgent internal exercise checking how ready marginal seats are for an election this October. Someone in Labour’s high command has decided that October is possible and is making real steps to ensure that all is ready (this is not along the lines of the usual “we have to be ready for an election at any time” statement).
Whether connected or not the betfair price on an election this year has shortened in the past few days ( was around 6 now 4.3 ).
Sorry again for the anon thing
LOL! I don’t think these internal polls will be made public.
OT, but related to Brown’s election planning, the EU debate is looking increasingly perilous for Labour.
Keith Vaz - onetime Europe minister - has now come out in favour of a referendum. David Blunkett has also said a referendum may be necessary. The unions are still banging the referendum drum, and surely the Lib Dems must be rethinking their anti-referendum policy - it’s disastrous for them in the English seats where they are most pressed by the Tories.
Meanwhile David Milliband has now refused to explicitly rule out a referendum. Intriguing.
I think Brown has two choices. Go for an early election - with a manifesto pledge to ratify without a plebiscite - or call a flipping referendum.
I don’t think he can maintain the No Plebiscite position for the two years that this Treaty will take to ratify. It will constantly gnaw away at his popularity.
Both options have serious risks, of course. An early election with a No Referendum pledge might become A Referendum in itself. But I wonder if Milliband’s sidestep indicates second thoughts in the government.
Have a tip from Peter the Punter.
Perfect Flight in the 2.10 at Sandown. 11-2, but worth an each way punt.
Thanks to Peter for the tip.
I have just posted this in response on his blog:
“I would like to know if you are aware of the rule laid down by the British Polling Council that states that polls conducted by BPC members are to be published. The Times helpfully points out that “Populus is a member of the British Polling Council” so therefore should be in a position to publish this internal poll”
4. “Anon”
Why on earth should we believe this?
Random anon posting ‘tips’ on this site in the past have usually proved to be phoney.
6 - “But I wonder if Milliband’s sidestep indicates second thoughts in the government.”
And I wonder if it indicates the first signs of Brown’s pigheaded obduracy to plough on regardless of the counsel of his Ministers. The No Plebiscite position is political poison. But so is his other major statement this week - that British troops will stay in Iraq. Some voters want the troops home immediately and they aren’t impressed. Most of the others don’t want our withdrawl to look like we are running up the white flag - but they only want troops to stay if there is a mission to which they can safely make a meaningful contribution.
Brown can’t give a convincing answer on what the mission is for our troops in Iraq. As casualties mount, the question just gets louder - “what are they actually doing there? Brown seems to be deaf to the voters on both this and the Euro-”Constitution”. He may take the view that the economy will always trump foreign policy issues and he floats or sinks on that issue alone. I get the impression a sizeable portion of his colleagues aren’t so sure.
Regardless of what the published polls are saying I suspect that Labour’s private polling, like that of Tories, is less clear-cut with areas of significant concern - and highlights these two potential problems for Labour. Surely Brown could not call a snap election with troops still in Iraq? But now if he takes them out in the near-term, he appears to be a flip-flopper. Spain set a precedent on how events can change the resolve to stay the course in Iraq. The British troops, now penned up in their single location, could be subjected to a monstrous barrage aimed at causing a casualty level that obliges the politicians to pledge their return. Brown could not risk the link being made between British casualties and his calling the election. I think his Iraq announcement makes it damn near impossible to go this year. That would give him some time to actually do some of that listening he promised.
Afternoon all, thought I had better make an appearance as Mike is on route to the French Basque country for his well-earned break.
A couple of announcements:
1. Sean Fear’s article will be out this afternoon
2. Acting on Mike’s instructions, the poster of the year voting will close today at 6.30 pm - any votes received after this time will not be counted.
Many thanks
4/10: Well, as I reported a long time ago, marginal seats are on semi-alert. That doesn’t mean that I or anyone else particularly expects an October election - personally I think it’s very unlikely. But it’d be very unprofessional if the party didn’t bother to have a contingency plan and, if Gordon wanted to call one, had to say, ‘Sorry, boss, no can do.’.
Short of a national crisis, elections are always called on the basis of it being the optimal time to win. Some of the posts above suggest that the EU referendum question or Iraq are such vote-changing issues that they will prevent it, but the polls suggest that this isn’t currently the case. The Tories are perfectly well aware of that, which is why they keep changing the subject, hoping to hit on something that has more resonance.
2007 is a definite runner, I think Brown is having his hand forced and being challenged to overcome his natural caution. The number of MPs rumbling over Europe and seeking a new mandate is almost a plea for an election by proxy.
9 I tend to agree but in the circumstances I can do little else but post anonymously. I am personally dubious about the chances of an election this year and assumed the various nods and winks coming out of Downing St were to wind up the Tories but it does appear that Labour Party officials are taking an autumn election seriously though clearly the final decision rests with the Prime Minister
14 all you are saying is that Gordon wants to have the genuine option of going in Oct/Nov - I hate to break it to you, what with you having to go all secret squirrel on us but WE KNEW THIS ALREADY.
Just wondering: Is there anything different about the way in which these private polls are done compared to the ones that get paid for by the newspapers? If not, why do parties spend their money on them? Is it so they get to set the more detailed questions that the newspaper pollsters wouldn’t normally be asking? Or so that they can leak them if they give the result they want and keep them secret if they don’t?
10. “Regardless of what the published polls are saying I suspect that Labour’s private polling, like that of Tories, is less clear-cut with areas of significant concern - and highlights these two potential problems for Labour.”
and possibly the current lead is still “soft”
Nick re 12
I accept your first paragraph in good faith.
Last sentence of final paragraph however appears inconsistent with what you wrote on this site just over a week ago when you suggested Cameron was tending to focus on individual issues too long and was not pragmatic in responding to new events. You may recall I did challenge you on this.
Speaking from my experience of Labour organisation (I’m not directly involved in a marginal) it certainly doesn’t ‘feel’ like we are only five or so weeks from the start of a general election campaign.
In terms of writing the manifesto, making sure a candidate is in place in every seat, fundraising etc, I would expect far more frantic activity at this stage.
16 I think your first answer is generally correct but once they have the results they may occasionally leak them. In addition there is often a heavy focus on polling in the marginals seldom done in the newspaper polls.
18: fair point, Mike I. It’s what I thought at the time, but Cameron has moved onto several other issues since.
16: The first bit. It isn’t just what questions are asked, its the access to the data, being able to do all the particular breaks they want, testing different messages, etc, etc. Since the rules on disclosure were agreed it’s very rare for them to risk having details leak out and be forced to release their data to the enemy
So far as the voting goes, it’s now exceptionally close between Andrea and seanT for 2nd place in the PB.com poll! Just 4 votes in it last time I looked. Sean Fear looks set for victory at this stage, and the fact that he is very conveniently about to post one of his (usually) excellent Friday posts probably means he is safe there. (Unless he does a David Davis style bomb of a post!!
)
Anyone who hasnt voted yet should make sure they go back to the main page to register their vote.
22.Anthony, are you surprised that YouGov chose to do the fieldwork for their monthly poll over a bank holiday in August, of all months?
O/T
Is this the beginning of aa autumn of discontent?
Underground strikes to go ahead
The first 72-hour strike will start on Monday
A series of Tube strikes linked to the collapse of a maintenance firm will go ahead, a union has said.
Members of Unite, the Rail, Maritime and Transport (RMT) union and the Transport Salaried Staffs Association are due to begin action on Monday.
They are protesting over job losses faced by Metronet staff. Transport for London (TfL) said all issues raised by the unions were being addressed.
The strikes are planned for 3, 4 and 10 September.
Can Gord come to rescue so soon after the Prison Officers dispute ?
24 - I think yougov are the least vulnerable of the pollsters to holidays as they’re on-line and thus can be accessed anywhere in the world by people who they invite to take part in a survey. Whereas a phone pollster misses out on someone holidaying in the States or France, for instance, all a yougov member has to do is log on in any cybercafé etc and they can complete the poll
22: Yes, I am. I not sure whether there is any empirical evidence that it really does have an significant effect on sample quality or whether everyone tends to avoid them just in case…but all the same.
27 Clearly not going back to your old buddies anytime soon then? At this rate you’ll be first up against the wall if your former confederates ever regain power. LoL
10. Interesting. So it’s just Brown’s stubborn-ness that prevents him U-turning? At some point it might cost him, politically.
e.g. There’s a ferocious Daily Mail editorial today, on the referendum issue.
http://tinyurl.com/3xzz7w
With editorials like that, there is no question Brown will provoke the Mail’s determined and angry hostility - if he persists in denying a vote. It’s quite possible he doesn’t care, and thinks he can win even with the Mail (and the Sun etc etc) calling for his head.
But Labour MPs in marginal English seats might be less sanguine….
29 O/T But is Cornwall as rabidly Eurosceptic as you make out. I find it hard to square what you say with its political complexion
30 UKIP topped the poll in several Devon and Cornwall authorities in the 2004 European elections. I think they also saved their deposits in most constituencies in those counties in 2005.
30. Don’t quite understand how yr question proceeds from my post?
Anyhow - yes - Cornwall is weird. It is definitely very eurosceptic. Ask the fishermen of Newlyn. Yet the Cornish persist in voting for europhile Lib Dems.
I think the “confusion” is a legacy of non-conformis. Libs do well in parts of the UK that are traditionally not C of E strongholds - western Scotland for example. And these votes persist even when the logic for them has dwindled…
Talking of Lib Dems, can any Lib on here explain the logic of their EU position - which is apparently against an EU referendum? It seems to me painfully and blatantly obvious that the LDs should he calling, loudly, for a vote. Why?
First, because it is the right thing to do.
Second, because they wanted a referendum on the last version of the Constitution, so they look inconsistent in now saying No.
Third, because this issue deeply embarrasses Labour, something presumably the LDs wish to see continue? If the Lib Dems come out in favour of a vote that puts even more pressure on Brown.
Fourth, because the public wants a referendum by a huge majority. Supporting a referendum is popular. Opposing one is not.
Fifth, because in opposing a referendum, the Lib Dems risk being badly spanked by pro-referendum Tories in marginal English constituencies
So what the f***ing hell are the Lib Dems doing not supporting a vote??? It doesn’t make any sense. It doesn’t even make sense if they are passionately europhile, they can always campaign FOR a yes vote when and if their is a plebiscite.
Derrrr.
Sometimes you have to wonder if Lib Dems have a brain between them.
Listen up guys, your party is disappearing down a psephological plughole. Grow a spine - and some neurones - and Support a Referendum.
32 - I thought the Lib Dem position was shifting towards holding a referendum (despite Ming’s categorical rejection of the idea a little while ago).
33. Ming is apparently holding out against a referendum, according to reports I’ve read.
It’s stupid. The man is senile. Someone get him a commode.
The Lib Dems should support a referendum because to do otherwise is crass, imbecilic and self-destructive.
On Topic: Apparently “Yes”.
Anthony has posted on his blog that Populus are going to release the details - and they are very different from the YouGov poll.
4. Bullshit springs to mind - please do not take that personally!
It is quite possible that an audit is being carried out on Labours election machinery, however if you regularly read these pages you will have seen the weight of evidence goes against an October election. I have posted on here regularly the Labour parties job adverts:
http://www.labour.org.uk/new_job
They are all out of date and none of them are GE related. If you read the press and follow the media you will recall that many Labour party jobs were axed last year. What is more even Nick Robinson of the BBC has given some credence to the facts by allowing comment on his blog that is completly off thread -highlighting this fact and showing the link. I have never seen the BBC put off site links in a blog comment before!
http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/nickrobinson/2007/08/curse_that_jet_1.html
Labour really are playing a dangerous game here because it is just spin and will come and bite their arse!
Sean Fear’s article is now out.
Double Carpet (Guest Editor)
34 - The Lib Dems should support a referendum because to do otherwise is crass, imbecilic and self-destructive.
But then, they’d, like, have to do the same thing as the Tories. Euugghhh…. That can’t be right? Doing the same as the Tories? No, no…that would never do. Then they would have to skewer themselves on their own moral superioriy….
VOTE ANDREA VOTE ANDREA VOTE ANDREA VOTE ANDREA.
NO one deserves second place in the poster of the year contest more!! An Italian student with an encyclopedic knowledge of British elections and with a wit and wisdom to rival Confucius!
(If on the other hand you prefer a Europhobic obsessive with a penchent for pornography……………..)
It’s good to see the private polling figures from Populus have now been released showing the Tories only one point behind Labour
32 It didn’t O/T = Off topic i.e new subject. Clearly EU is not that important to them. That or they are completley ignorant as to the Lib Dems stance on EU things
40 Have they officially then
Yes, it is available on the Populus website
40. Populus link please….
Re: The EU Treaty
First, and foremost, I stress that the the government is not bound to hold a referendum on the EU Treaty. It had been pledged to hold, if re-elected in 2005, a referendum on the then EU Constitution; however, the rejection of it by the French and the Dutch rendered that null and void.
Nevertheless, I’ve made no secret of the fact that I favour a referendum on the EU Treaty given that there will be a significant shift in powers to from the national legislatures of all member states (subject to any pre-negotiated opt-outs, if applicable) to the European Union.
This is how it could be done:
1) Parliament debates the Treaty, while all others the press, pressure groups, etc are permitted to make the case for and against said Treaty, within a “reasonable” time frame. Upon the expiry of which, Parliament determines the date on which the referendum is to take place. An immediate announcement is then to be made by the Prime Minister, setting a date on which the referendum is to be held. He is prohibited from either speaking in for or against said Treaty only to urge that all voters participate in the referendum.
2) The following day a copy of the Treaty in it’s entirety is to be despatched to each and every voter. This marks the start of the “cooling off period” (possibly around 60 days), in which:
a) All Members of Parliament are prohibited publicly from even commenting on let alone campaigning either in favour or against the Treaty, during that period.
b) All political parties, pressure groups and the press are prohibited publicly from even commenting on said Treaty, let alone for or against it, during that period.
5) If 50% plus one of the entire UK electorate (i.e. not just those who vote)[I feel this warranted given the fundamental importance of this Treaty] vote Aye then the Treaty is ratified; if they vote Nay, then the Treaty is rejected.
6) In the event of Treaty being neither ratified nor rejected (i.e. fails to secure 50% plus one of the entire UK electorate either way), it is for Parliament, and it alone, to ratify or reject the Treaty. Whether one is pro-EU and anti-EU, this matter is something which transcends party lines (certainly the “big beasts” anyway).
PERSONAL REFLECTIONS
This process if nothing else will emancipate the electorate from the “tyranny of the media” and other vested interests, who’ll distort it to suit their whims, prejudices, etc. The power of the media to shape public opinion is frightening
I myself am yet to read the Treaty (I’m aware of bits here and there) and, therefore, undecided as to which way I’d vote. Lets just say there are things I like and don’t like about the EU.
No-one can deny that the EU as it stands is in need of reform. The lack of “accountability” and “transparency” must be addressed; along with the “democratic deficit”. I’ve long felt too much decision-making is held by the European Commission (i.e. it’s appointed executive) and not enough by the European Parliament (i.e. the elected representatives of the PEOPLE of Europe).
But make no doubt about it, should a referendum take place, I will be voting.
Easiest is to click on Populus archives under Data Polls on the right-hand side of this page
“a) All Members of Parliament are prohibited publicly from even commenting on let alone campaigning either in favour or against the Treaty, during that period.
b) All political parties, pressure groups and the press are prohibited publicly from even commenting on said Treaty, let alone for or against it, during that period.”
How on earth could you possibly restrict freedom of speech like that?
And what if someone did talk about the treaty? What would you do?
Arrest them?
Totally unworkable.
I also disagree on this 50% + 1 business on a “no” vote. If turnout evens betters the last general election, say at 70%, you would need OVER 70% voting either yes/no for a clear result.
Imagine the uproar if 69% voted “no” on the treaty and parliament voted through the treaty anyway?
I would agree that 50%+1 on an absolute turnout should be the criteria for a “yes” vote to be valid. On anything else, the treaty should definitely fail.
If fundamental changes in the power of the UK and its electorate are up to be surrendered to a foreign body, the burden of proof should be on those arguing for a “yes” vote. The treaty is ‘guilty until proven innocent’.
None of our powers should ever be given up unless an absolute majority of the adults in this country agree to it - actively.
Link to Conservative poll - http://www.populuslimited.com/uploads/download_pdf-280807-The-Conservative-Party-Voting-Intention.pdf
48 - If that can be verified, then is not a new thread needed?
47. Not so much a restriction on the freedom of speech, more sanctions to enhance freedom from what I’ve cited as the “tyranny of the media” and vested interests.
Politicians, etc and the press, irrespective of whether they are “pro” or “against” will have had ample time to state their case prior to the “cooling off period”. While, impractical to enforce, I’d like to think the major players would honour it. Are they incapable of making gentlemen’s agreements these days?
“Imagine the uproar if 69% voted “no” on the treaty and parliament voted through the treaty anyway?”
Yes, I can. Still, it’s down to them to make sure they get off their butts vote one way or another so that it doesn’t have to come down to Parliament, ain’t it? They can’t turn complain if they don’t.
As for criteria required for ratification or otherwise, I’m trying to be fair and impartial to both sides here. I’m not in any camp, except to say that I feel a referendum should be held.
Re 4. pbc anon may be pure spin, but a certain Labour MP in a marginal seat here in Lothian was asked his view on an October poll on Thursday morning.
Anybody in Westminster confirm theres rumours of a big announcement expected on Tuesday? (possibly election related?)
I have undertaken some analysis of the regional variations which shows Tory advance in the South and Midlands and Labour not really moving forward anywhere apart from Scotland. Although the most recent ICM, YouGov and Ipsos MORI polls are showing larger leads for Labour, I am pretty convinced that regional variations - and our dear friends differential turnout and tactical voting & unwind (this time perhaps Pro-Tory) - make the results of a general election more complex than the headline figures suggest.