And the winner is……
September 1st, 2007
PBC Poster of the Year 2006-7 revealed
Following a hard-fought campaign, but one which all candidates acknowledged was very clean and held in a good spirit, the final results of the competition can now be announced, with the official count of the online electronic voting being conducted at 6.30 Friday - 438 valid votes were cast.
Can I (and on behalf of Mike also) congratulate Sean Fear on winning the election from a very strong field, and congratulations too to all the other candidates, both those in the final and the first round. The competition has demonstrated the large pool of talent featured on pb.com, so whether it’s lively debate you’re after, in-depth analysis of UK and international politics, or betting tips for politics (and sport), this is the place to be - an absolutely indispensable resource.
Populus private poll
This has Labour just one point ahead of the Conservatives - Lab 37, Con 36, LD 16.
There are several polls due out over the next few days, so it remains to be seen whether this is a “rogue poll” or the first sign that Gordon’s honeymoon and the “Brown bounce” are over, and if the prospects for an autumn election are now disappearing, contrary to rumours on the blogs of a possible date in early October. Further details and commentary can be found here on Anthony Wells’ site.
7.45 am update - Ipsos-Mori poll in the Sun (thanks Jack W) - Lab 41, Con 36, LD 16
Guest Articles
As you probably all know, I’ll be looking after the site for the next fortnight while Mike takes a well-earned break in southwest France. Any guest articles would be very much appreciated - having some available in my previous guest editor stint made the week a lot easier. I’d especially welcome articles on the following topics:
Any articles that meet the general ethos of pbc will be considered - please contact me by clicking on the Election Game logo below.
Paul Maggs “Double Carpet”
Guest Editor
Mike Smithson returns on 17th September
Paul Maggs runs The Election Game - click on the logo to email for more information.
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Well done Sean F in triumphing over Sean T, proving yet again that good will always beat evil!
Can someone remind me if Mori weights again, I know populus does
Congratulations Sean! Very well deserved. That Andrea isn’t sharing it with you shows that you cant always trust an electorate to make the right decision-(so maybe the Tories have a chance!)
Another excellent poll by MORI for Labour. Cameron’s ratings are only a few points ahead of Ming
http://www.thesun.co.uk/article/0,,2-2007400883,00.html
The Guardian on the prospect of an early election, can’t say I quite understand its conclusion or point?
http://tinyurl.com/32l3d4
Well done to all those who won!
I understand Nick Palmer and I are involved in an eighth recount …. 53 all !!!
I’m challenging several of Nick’s votes that have paw marks of a feline nature instead of a X on the ballot and the misbegotten Socialist MP has the temerity to challenge 52 of my votes that might appear to have the odd spot of blood on them !!
2 - Also very much worth noting that the Conservative figures are back in the mid-30’s as they were in the private populus poll, though Mori’s volatility still means i tend to take any Mori poll with a pinch of salt… the populus poll in the Times could be the most interesting, as if polls begin to show the Conservatives breaking out of the 33-34% range that the “BB” seemed to have confined them to, then that could have important repercussions.
So in the only poll that really counts, where people cast their votes in a serious contest, the Conservative Party candidate triumphs, with Labour trailing and the Lib Dems nowhere. While there will be those who point to the high shares independent candidates of right, centre and left received in an attempt to explain away their poor showing, I think this result confirms that the significant shift back towards the Tories as revealed in the Populus Poll and those who mock Ave It’s pronouncements will need to think again.
iirc ipsos MORI don’t adjust for liklihood to vote so the Labour figure could be a bit flattered - we do know from all the other polls that Tory voters tend to be the most determined.
If I am right that would suggest the Populus private poll might reflect the underlying trend at the moment.
The spin about an October poll is largely now coming from Tory ranks - reflects a growing confidence that the Brown Bounce is coming to an end. If we big up the possibility of an election and then there isn’t one it looks like Brown is running scared.
Labours fault this - they started it. The speculation will just default to March, or May then next Autumn and so-on.
Constant speculation about a GE makes the Government look ‘on the run’ weak, defensive and tired - it did for Callaghan and it did for Major.
Congratulations on your success, Sean F - a worthy winner - a thanks to the organisers and participants for making it a fun event.
Keith Vaz proposal for a Euro-referendum, could be a runner.
http://tinyurl.com/34hzzz
The sun poll was dated from July, am I right?
8 - Marcus
While i think there could be a lot of truth in what you say, as yet i think it we still have to be careful, we’ve had a very bad YouGov Poll, a good Populus Poll (although one conducted for the party) and a Mori Poll… Mori are always volatile, while YouGov and Populus were conducted over the bankholiday (with the usual caveats).
Either way, i think it possible we could we be seeing an erosion of some of the soft support that fueled the “BB” - perhaps derived from an increased likelihood of voting amongst Conservative voters (related to the raising of the crime issue?) as well as some of the “give the new guy a chance” tendency drifting a little, although the anti-Blair tendency seem back within the Labour fold, so that should help Brown and Labour.
All suspicions from these polls can only be very tentative at the moment… I’d still expect a Labour lead for a little while yet and remains to be see if Labour don’t reassert themselves or if these a merely anomalous “bank holiday” polls…
Marcus. This poll only includes those who say they are certain to vote.
11 sheepdip. No. According to the “Sun” polling took place after the Rhys Jones murder.
13 It only includes certain to vote but doesn’t weigh by past voting. Arguably this means that the higher propensity to vote among Conservative would be voters is balanced against the higher sampling of Labour voters that seems to occur but it does seem make Mori a little more volatile (IIRC Mori did put in a past vote filter in their polls just before the last election which bought them much closer to actual outturn with Tory & LD shares almost bang on but Labour overstated by 3% or so).
2 polls with Conservatives on 36%. improvement on the 33%s typical of the last month.
The only question is whether the Labour 41% figure is being maintained or is corect. when Yougov had a 10% lead, some boffins were calling it an actual 3% lead. Now YouGov are showing 8%, the Populus Poll which takes into account likelihood to vote properly, might be correct showing a 1% Labour lead.
Congratulations Sean Fear. Happy to share the old wooden spoon! Stodge if I can have the wooden spoon on a Monday, Weds, Friday and Sunday, you can have it Tuesdays, Thursdays, Saturdays and on Bank Holidays.
Interesting piece in the Guardian about how sports starts could potentially face a jail term for passing on inside information for betting advantage under new legislation. I’m sure it could potentially apply to other forms of betting - such as political betting. Time to get yourself a pseudonym Nick Palmer!
http://politics.guardian.co.uk/homeaffairs/story/0,,2160200,00.html
Very well done Sean Fear , 95 votes and I expect there will be 200 pb.com posters saying they were amongst the 95 incuding myself .
The Populus - Conservative poll is a bit of a puzzler . From various comments here and elsewhere it appears to be one days figures from a regular tracker poll . Do the Conservatives pay for the tracker poll permanently or did they just pay for that particular one day’s figures ? If the former , you can understand them leaking the good news . If the latter , did Populus go to the Conservatives and hint they had some favourable figures for the COnservatives - would you like to buy them ?
In any case not too long before a regular Populus poll will through more light on things or muddy the waters more .
Because someone when asked, say they are likely to vote, does not mean they will, anymore than if someone says they are unlikely to vote they won’t. Those that say they will, and don’t, will probably cancel out those that say the won’t and do.
Its a silly question, pollsters that leave it out are quite right to do so!
I reckon the results show a definite Southern bias!
20 Not sure I totally agree with that statement , grumpy . There are probably around 40% of the population who will always vote and say so and around 20% who will never vote and say so . The remaining 40% fall into the category thsat you describe .
Mr Returning Officer, fellow nominees, my lord, ladies, gentlemen, and those in between, Party office spin machines, Italian research engines, fellow members of the human race and Will L:
Firstly, I’d like to pay tribute to the excellent Sean Fear in his victory. He consistently provides high-quality columns full of interesting and useful insight, as evidenced again yesterday. This site would be a much poorer place without him and his contributions. (I would however blame him for my own performance: one of the keys to success in elections is differentiation, and Sean’s posting style is too similar to mine, just better and with a higher profile!)
I must also thank the other nominees who without exception are valued members of the pbc community and whose contributions in their diverse ways are a part of making this site the great place that it is. Likewise, those who didn’t quite make the final or who weren’t to be selected: your time will come (though hopefully not next year as I have designs on that myself).
With few exceptions, the quality of discussion is consistently high and wide-ranging. It is this, as well as a love of politics, that brings me back here time and again. And those few exceptions find that their abuse or plain shouting is not appreciated and disappear off in their own time.
It would be unfair of me to pick out individuals as there are far more than can reasonably be credited here that deserve special praise, however politics can be unfair so I’ll do it anyway.
I’ll mention just two. Above all of course is Mike - no further explanation needed. Secondly is Peter the Punter. This site has many commentators and pundits but relatively few who are active and open betters. As well as the quality of the site, it’s this that sets it apart. Political punters matter and after Mike, Peter is foremost among them (us, actually).
2006-7 has been a vintage year; there is every prospect that 2007-8 will be even better. I am looking forward to it.
8 Marcus, actually, I think certain elements in the Lib Dems had a large role in propagating early election stories.
20 Mark - Anthony Wells seems to suggest that it isn’t any different from a regular poll “What this probably isn’t is a blip that went straight back down again - one good poll plucked from the middle of a series of bad ones - simply because when it scampered out of CCHQ it would have been the most up to date data they had available: fieldwork finished on Tuesday, Populus knock up some tables for them on Wednesday, Benedict Brogan knew about it on Thursday.”
22
I agree with that, Stefan Shakespeare did a piece for Conhome a few weeks ago, in which he questioned the accepted wisdom, that Conservative voters were more likely to vote than Labour. In fact he found that it was Conservative leaning voters who appeared to be lacking in enthusiasm, therefore less likely to vote.
22 Any chance you can tap your contacts on Swansea West for information. Interesting Waller picked out Newport East ahead of Swansea West for you now. I agree your Newport lot seem far superior to their Swansea brethren. Best result on night in May. Plus I am alack jawed with amazement you have no candidate yet. It will take a major effort to win, and yet here you allowing Geraint to get settled in and get a head start. I’m not sure if they want to win
“The spin about an October poll is largely now coming from Tory ranks - reflects a growing confidence that the Brown Bounce is coming to an end. If we big up the possibility of an election and then there isn’t one it looks like Brown is running scared”
you can read both ways: Tories are spinning about an early election because they’re not afraid of it or Tories are spinning an early election to show that they’re not scared of it (even if they are)
Congratulations Sean Fear
29 Refer you to 153 Previous thread I think
28 - Fair point… is it a bluff, a double bluff or triple bluff?!
As it is i don’t think anyone as a clue what they want or don’t want, all smoke, mirrors and advertising.
ColinW woz robbed.
31. Maybe not, but at least they can now spin it as if they do!
25 That is not quite what Anthony says , he seems to accept it is part of a regular tracker ( but no less valid for that reason ) . You don’t know if it was a blip which went back down again because it was released before presumably the figures for next 1 or 2 polls in this regular tracker were known . To me the interesting point is whether this regular tracker poll is something Populus do for themselves and then occasionally sell the results or do CCHQ pay for it permanently .
A case in point: Prior to Brown becoming PM, pollsters asked: Will GB becoming leader of the Labour Party make you, less/more likely to vote Labour, less was the answer, did that happen, no! Labour actually went up.
Ask someone a simple yes/no question you’ll get a resonably accurate answer. Ask someone to speculate, the answer is rarely correct.
Interesting to note that in the Sun poll, Brown’s popularity was running well ahead of that of Labour generally. People responding to the new man more favourably than the tired party of Government - which sets up an interesting tension when it comes to voting. Perhaps Brown should ditch Labour and run as an independent…
Also, the poll was quite kindly to dear old Ming, if not his party.
Interestingly the MORI poll in the Sun showing a five point Labour lead is stated as showing Labour one point down. Infact the last MORI poll-also in the Sun-showed the same five point Labour lead. The one showing six points was the preceeding one in the Observer. Phew!!!
(That’s my starting shot for next years poster of the year!)
Many congratulations to Sean. I enjoyed being able to vote after 6.30pm last night - clear in the knowledge I was having absolutely no impact on the outcome; must be what voting Lib Dem feels like most of the time…
Thanks to NickP for your answers last night - unfortunately I was abed by the time you posted.
37 - Roger, should I nominate you now?
BOLD WINNERS
Can I suggest that all finalists, and our genial host, be allowed to post in bold, or at least have their names in BOLD?
I often scan down for opinions I find shed more light than the rest of us, and those include Nick Palmer and David Herdson (as well as Rik W). I did suggest this once before but there was an issue with how to decided who got to be bolded. Now you could simply do the election winners.
First of all congratulations to Sean Fear, a worthy winner. If the poll had been AV he’d have been high up on my list.
A few other notes and comments on the above;
- I saw a comment by Anthony Wells that the Mori poll was from the same Bank holiday weekend as the other two. I suggest we all treat the set of three as a mystery and await further data in the coming few days.
- Mark S: I’m sure Populus doesn’t do regular polls for their own pleasure. My understanding is that the Tories ask them to poll a couple of hundred more every day or two and then add them u, making a rolling tracker. This means in principle that if Cameron endorses ferret-racing they can immediately see if it’s had an effect one way or the other, though the small samples will mean the MOE on the daily data is huge.
- Using inside information for gambling is of course illegal for politicians too. For instance, if Tony Blair or someone in his confidence had placed a bet on when he was planning to resign, that would clearly have been illegal. On the other hand, merely commenting publicly on trends can’t possibly be illegal, as otherwise all pundits who say things like “sources tell me that Brown is/is not considering an October election” will all get locked up. So I don’t think I need a pseudonym to comment here.
- I agree with Ben at 31. Nobody really knows for sure what’s happening or whether an early election would be helpful or not.
NickP
“For instance, if Tony Blair or someone in his confidence had placed a bet on when he was planning to resign, that would clearly have been illegal.”
Is it really illegal, in the way insider share dealing is? I thought gambling was largely unregulated (save for today’s bill, of course), and it was both unenforceable from a debt perspective and also broadly caveat emptor.
How would you define “insider information” - does that include stablehands who know a particular horse is fit/not fit?
I don’t know the answer, but would imagine that bookmakers are free to accept bets at their own risk as they wish. Clearly anyone pitching up at William Hills with a fistful of fivers using the name T Blair, would have raised a few alarm bells…
Ferret Racing - the latest Tory GE fundraising event (with apologies to JackW)
http://www.rotaryinlondon.org/photolibrary/dec06/full/ferrets3.jpg
26 - the compromise explanation is probably that voters in safe Labour constituencies are less likely to vote. Because there are more more Labour voters in Labour constituencies this leads to the conclusion that Labour voters are less likely to vote. (the situation is also made magnified but the circumstances where the large Labour majority means there are far more Labour safe constituencies viz Tory ones - safe constituencies always have lower turnout).
But it is the nature of the constituency that is important, not necessarily the party affiliation of the voters. So in marginal constituencies turnout is largely irrelevant, from which it follows that turnout is largely irrelevant to the outcome of any election.
41 - I think the answer is that is wasn’t illegal before, but it is now - with the caveat that there is no case law to indicate what constitutes ‘insider information’.
44 (con) - could be totally wrong but isn’t it also true that in the Stock market it is the using of Insider Information that is illegal, rather than the passing on of such information (except perhaps specifically for the purpose of providing a ‘tip’)?
Some of the scare stories this morning about footballers going to jail for casually dropping a comment into information that a key couple of players will not be playing in the next game seem a little bit over-the-top in that context.
Many thanks for the votes and the kind words, and to the other contestants. It just shows what a good thing FPTP is, when you can win on 21% of the vote.
46. Quite agree. Though it should be pointed out that although both Lib Dems candidates were last and third from last, if the election had taken place under PR, both would have undoubtedly been first and second.
[46] It’s comments like that that got you home, Sean. I’m beginning to think of you as being what Boris would be like if only her were sane…
[48] That would be “if he were”, of course…
40 Nick , Mori do their monthly poll for their own pleasure as you would put it and then try usually successfully to sell it , it would of course be interesting if the Populus tracker was done on this basis or as you suggest is paid for by the Conservatives as it were by direct debit .
39 That’s an interesting suggestion, Off Centre.
Bold might be a bit loud, but a suffix (N) for Nominees and (W) for Sean Fear, our respected Winner, might do.
Of course, you can always use the search function. Hit Control F and enter the name you are looking for. (You have to vary slightly if looking for Colin W - it’s F***ing Control.)
PtP = have you considered the impact of SeanT in full flow (in bold?
Read his (as ever logical) invective late last night to NickP and imagine it in bold too… I shudder…
Classic quote from Charles Clarke today: “I am hoping the electors in Norwich South will look at all the candidates and not vote in some kind of tactical way.” No really!
52 No you possibly have the whole post in bold. It would look like shouting. But I think a suffix (N) or (W) might have the desired effect and be helpful to new or occasional posters.
Hello. Well that was fun. First of all, I’d like to thank my worthy team of voters (i.e. me) who fanned out across Fitzrovia yesterday to vote in every cybercafe for myself. Well done!
I am highly chuffed with my very respectable second placing. There is no shame in losing to such a worthy and articulate commenter as the estimable Sean Fear, even if he is a party hack. Beating the splendid Andrea is even more of an achievement (and a surprise) especially as he was the only man in the final with a name like a woman, and therefore, presumably, accrued the distaff vote.
Thrashing the hapless Nick ‘I love referendums except when I don’t’ Palmer MP over the boundary and into a distant fourth place is always gratifying, even if I have got slightly used to beating him up.
Most of all though, I am indecently pleased with my silver medal because it so obviously annoys Roger and Mrs Test, which is almost my raison d’etre.
Congrats Sean F, and thanks to Mike for the entertainment. Hope you are enjoying your hols!
Sean Fear: “It just shows what a good thing FPTP is, when you can win on 21% of the vote.”
LOL! And said with no obvious irony too…
Well done anyway Sean. The clear triumph of Conservative posters is interesting, and perhaps indicates the distribution of readers in some way. But Sean F is a worthy winner and would have probably got my #2 in an AV vote…
Others are too low on the MORI poll, they will score considerably higher than 7%.
Tim 13 at 24 I should think the only party who don’t want an early election, given their poll showing, is the Lib Dems.
Mind you that only applies to the party membership. I suppose constant threats of a GE ’round the corner’ shores up Ming against any plotting by his fellow MP’s (or even reformed past leaders…).
Politics eh?
55 Yes, congratulations, SeanT, on your podium position. (It’s a new one on me; you must show me how to do it some time.)
That somebody who is not competent to fill out a betting slip should win second prize in a political betting contest is an extraordinary achievement and the mind boggles at the hours and hours you must have spent trudging round the internet cafes in Central London.
Furthermore, your utter incompetence in betting matters was completely eclipsed by your other sterling qualities. You must remind us what they are when I am away on holiday.
Those who are about to defect to Conhome salute you!
40.”- I saw a comment by Anthony Wells that the Mori poll was from the same Bank holiday weekend as the other two. I suggest we all treat the set of three as a mystery and await further data in the coming few days.”
So we have had 3 polls, all taken over a bank holiday in August, each progressively out of date as they are published? I have to agree with Nick about treating all of them with caution.
‘Ave it’ ‘Martin Day’ and 77 internet cafes. Well done SeanT a worthy second place!
60 You treat all summer polls with caution, Chris.
Wish I had a pound for every time I’d said ‘wait till the conference season’, or words to that effect. It’s worth repeating though.
61. It SO irritates you, doesn’t it? You didn’t even make the final, despite your desperate electioneering. And I came second despite your pitiful attempts to prevent that happening, by begging people to vote for Andrea.
There’s always next year, Woger. I am willing to help you with your campaign if you like.
The only thing worth commenting on in the polls, whatever their accuracy, Labour have a reading of 40% plus, how many of us, (certainly not me) would have thought that a few weeks ago?
63 Irritates Roger?!! What about the rest of us??!!! As if your obsession with the EU wasn’t bad enough, we’re now going to have you banging on all year about how you came second..blah, blah, blah.
Knew this competition was a bad idea.
65. Hah! No, I promise to shut up after today. Anyway I’m off to get bombed in the Basque country on Tuesday, so pb.com will be mercifully free of my rantings for a while.
Congrats on your 30 votes. You must have made some people some money over the months. If only I could work out how to bet…
66 Great place. You will have no difficulty having a fine time there.
Enjoy.
66 Btw…isn’t Mike there too? StJean de Luz?
Hmmmm….tad suspicious, that…
52. Robin, I have to say its shocking you didn’t get on the nomination. You’d be in my top five posters and I always take care to read your posts. That I got on the nomination and you didn’t is laughable!
68 Remember what the told you on the anger management course; big breath.. count to 10..think calming thoughts (Greyhounds, Horses. unhappy bookies, wads of cash).
There, who is that SeanT after all…
68. Yes, all the best people are going to Euskadi this year. However, Mike is in a different bit to me - he is indeed in St Jean de Luz. I’m in Biarritz then off around the Spanish Basque country, doing some articles.
Never been before. Rather looking forward to it.
Oi! I demand a recount!
Actually I am broadly pleased with the result. I can’t help but wonder if Seant and Jack W’s campaign was less able to deal with the main campaign, not having the experience of the first round.
My congratulations to Sean Fear,I am still awaiting a copy of your manifesto.
Does this mean you are now in the group stages of the European Champions PBC Poster,I assume by automatically qualifying.?
Must dash,have an invitation to the “Theatre of Dreams” as guests of the away team.
My money is on Roy Keane’s boys to snatch a draw but they will go all out to win.
Have a good day all
O/T from prev thread
Back to topic - the Far Left has not gone away - it is evermore present in New Labour which is saturated and riddled with anglophobia, anti-white racism, political correctness, social engineering, positive discrimination that are all traits of far left politics of hatred of the white Englishman/woman. New Labour is exactly what the far left wanted, a new home to hide themselves and pretending to be right wing and captalist which they are not. New Labour has done more damage to the UK than Wilson or Callaghan because they delivered the divisive and discriminatory devolution policies, human rights trash that Old Labour only talked about. New Labour = New Stalinism = mass murder and mass genocide. Kier Hardy must be spinning with joy at a frequency of 200MHz in his grave.
71 If that’s where you’re going, there’s a very good chance you’ll meet him.
I think he should be warned.
If Yokel and Neil W are around, you have email.
3 re guardian article on election. did you you read the comments?? not what you would expect in the guardian.
58, Marcus “I should think the only party who don’t want an early election, given their poll showing, is the Lib Dems. Mind you that only applies to the party membership.”
True but it is the LD MPs that dont want an election. About half of all LD MPs face a real battle and the expectation that at least 1 in 4 (16) will lose their seats. I suggest that Labour and Conservative MPs are not under a similar scale of threat.
63. Thanks for your offer to help me with my campaign Sean. Perhaps I should do some reading? What about
The EU Constitution - by Deirdre M. Curtin, T.M.C. Asser Instituut, … - 590 pages
A Constitution for the European Union - by Charles Beat Blankart, Dennis C. Mueller - 280 pages
Constitutional Law of the European Union The Referendum Experience in Europe: Books: Michael Gallagher,Pier Vincenzo Uleri by Michael Gallagher,Pier Vincenzo Uleri.
Can you suggest any others?
That should keep them on the edge of their seats……
OT — I’ve just had a visit from a council official checking the electoral register. What’s that about?
81 - perhaps ensuring everything is in order for the election which will be announced on either Monday or Tuesday
81.82. My annual electoral registration form arrived in the post this week, too, - so you never know …
78 I’ll say it again Scotland in 92 is a salutary lesson if you’re hoping that. They dropped practically half their vote nationally yet held all their seats. They could well get murdered in Surrey Heath but would they really care. Unlikely so long as say Eastlieigh held up
81. What do you do John L? i.e. Where was the visit?
69 tjm - you flatter me and I like it!!
I think my main handicap is that I try to balance PBC with a normal family life, job, past-times, sleeping, eating etc. I frankly do not know how some of the more frequent posters keep it up - I secretly think people like Bendict the Blog, Peter the Bad Loser, Roger (and roger), SeanT, etc are atually a team of posters who do 2 hour shifts each!
o/t (unless you’re SeanT, where every thread is about the EU).
Intersting segement on Any Questions today regarding a referendum on the consitution. Some class traitor from Labour in the Lords (can’t remember his name) was ambivalent over a referendum, but arguing that the govt would win one because it would be turned into a referendum on our continued membership of the EU, regardless of whether the question was specific to the Constitution/Treaty or not.
Max Hastings was suitably apoplectic (you could actually feel the veins in his temple pulsating through the radio speakers).
Dimbleby then put some questions to the (oh so representative) audience:
If the referendum question is specifically about the treaty, will you be able to focus on the treaty and not on wider EU membership? Overwhelming majority showed they could read the question and distinguish between the two in the preceedig debate.
If the question is about the treaty, how will you vote? Overwhelming majority against the treaty.
If the question is about EU membership, how will you vote? Large majority to stay in the EU.
This says to me 2 things:
*if* GB gives us a referendum, he will undoubtedly try to fudge the issue by making it an issue of continued EU membership, despite the question relating only to the treaty. This is his only hope for winning it.
When he tries this tactic, the public will see through it and vote down the constitution, whilst remaining broadly supportive of our continued involvement is a less formal and controlling EU.
Give us a referendum Brown. It’ll lance the boil. I think a referendum is more important now than an early GE to boot him out. If the GE comes first and should he win, he’ll find a way to claim that his mandate is for the EU constitution also. This is a bigger long term risk to the country than booting him out in a year or two’s time rather than now.
I’ll stop now before I get mistaken for SeanT (who although I rib him often I have great respect for - I won’t tell him that he needn’t have visited all those cybercafes - repeatedly rebooting his router at home to refresh the IP address would probably have been quicker and much cheaper…)
PtP @ 51: so if you want the winner to have a W after his name, that makes Jack the 2004 winner, Rik the 2005 victor, and Colin the champion last time around - sure this is such a good idea?
Many congratulations to Sean Fear - again I’d express the sentiment that had it been AV, he would have been high on my list. And had it been French presidential style, I would have taken great delight in widening his gap over SeanT in the second round. SeanT is a bit like Boris perhaps - when you can write as eloquently and argue as well as he can, you can get away with all sorts of drivel, but as contributions to speculation of political outcomes Sean Fear W is light years ahead for me. Keep it coming Sean!
Well done Sean Fear- a worthy winner. And well done too Andrea and seanT as runners up.
Commiserations to the other finalists- partcularly Peter the Punter and JackW- who split my 2 votes (I voted from work and home- tres naughty).
A genuinely fun and entertaining competition- would hope that Mike continues it in future years.
Red Flump. Your potential opponent list. Who are they?
“Lib Dem selection process underway. 4 Candidates all Councillors. Mike Day (Sketty), Claire Waller (Uplands), Peter May (Uplands), Mary Jones (Killay). Should be decided end of Sept. Lib Dem chances should depend on selection”
O/T (Well I always am,so Herbert tells me)
Back in the early nineties the labour party then in opposition used to criticise and pressure the tories to return to Greece the marbles pinched by lord Elgin.
When Blair got into power he wouldn’t give them back either (typical)
Are we agreed on this board that the time has come to hand them over?
Now especially after their fire disaster !
While we’re all having our silly season fun and talking of summer holidays, I see today that at least 1800 Iraqis were murdered this August.
1800. Another enormous total. And those are just the ones they’ve managed to record. How many have died in total? 100,000? 300,000? Half a million??
And now the British government is going to slink away from Basra, blaming the bloody debacle on the “intellectual bankruptcy” of the Americans.
Pitiful. If the British government, and the British army, knew that the war-plan of the Americans was “bankrupt” WHY DIDN’T THEY SAY SOMETHING AT THE F***ING TIME.
WHY DIDN’T THEY SAY - THIS WAR IS GOING TO BE A DISASTER. WE WANT NO PART OF IT.
They didn’t. Because they are lying. Blair and New Labour wanted the war, they lied to take us into war, they are still lying now to try and excuse the wretched catastrophe they have wrought.
Iraq is New Labour’s war. Fought with New Labour’s lies. The outcome is New Labour’s shame. And the vain brooding idiot savant who wrote the cheques for the war sits in Number 10 getting plaudits for being so morally serious.
If he was so morally serious he would resign and put himself and his Labour colleagues on trial.
69- tjm- aong with Roger would join the Robin Wiggs appreciation society. I view Robin as very much a Tory grandee representing the parternalistic strand of the party- the Willie Whitelaw of pbCOM. And his view of Toryism should have been represented in this election. Benedict White very nearly comes into this group with the one flaw that Benedict is obviously a LD waiting to get out of the closet. Robin is undoubtedly a true blue. Ah well..
93-and Robin Wiggs can cook a mean spaghetti bolognese
92. So true. At least the Wilson government stopped us from going to Vietnam so credit to Old Labour!
Labour has selected in Easting, one of their safest seats….Grahame Morris (agent of the retiring MP and former holder of various positions withing the CLP) won by a landslide
96 see 90 for Swansea West. Also refer 153 previous thread I think
Playing an EU in/out referendum is very dangerous. People may sleep walk into a no vote, not that I would mind but I’m sure it’s not what our jocular ex-chancellor wants.
I am sorry I missed out on yesterdays thread as an old lefty. In my opinion what killed off the hard left was the miner’s strike 1984-85. Arthur Scargill, singlehandedly responsible for ridiculing the cause of militancy. This was further confirmed with the antics of Derek Hatton at Liverpool. The left lost all credibility. The left never recovered, and has progressively become more marginalised, except for fleeting one offs- i.e Galloway and Bethnal Green.
I personally never liked militant. Kinnock’s legacy- he faced down militant, and made Labour electable again.
96, Bloody awful spelling…I meant Easington, not what I’ve written
Tyson @ 99 — and how wrong he was about the government ending the mining industry!
99
The person who really made Labour electable again, was, (wait for it) Mrs Thatcher. It was Thatcher’s union legistlation, legislation that removed the fear of union action, action which always rebounded on the Labour Party.
That and the collapse of the Soviet Union, the Tories had always been able to play, the Bolshevik Card’ that card is no longer available.
Attempts to portray Russia as a military threat will not have the same effect. Photographs of the brand new, well behind schedule, well over budget, Typhoon Eurofighter, escorting a clapped out Tupolev TU95, (congratulations to the fitters of the Russian Airforce, keeping that museum piece in the air must be testing your skills to the limit) shouldn’t worry anyone too much. Spare a thought for the Tupolev’s crew, watching the gauges for signs of fuel pressure loss, ‘Quick Ivan the parachutes’
Where we in the UK should be wary, is Russia’s attempts to control energy supplies, Gazprom is Russia’s most powerful weapon, much more powerful and effective than her military.
Tyson at 93,94 and 99.
Three of your posts inside half an hour that I agree totally with.
Maybe we should let you join the club, old boy! Benedcit the Blog is clearly far too serious about power ever to be a Lib Glum.
I’m not sure Kinnock made Labour entirely “electable again”; I agree that facing down Militant was indeed his lasting legacy and an act of far-sighted bravery. However, as a ranting, ginger, Welsh windbag (not all my soubriquets, but considered true by general acclaim), he maintained that great tradition of Labour’s unelectability.
It took a true Tory in Tony Blair to final shed that mantle for you, and we’ve been all at sea ever since.
Afternoon all
First, congratulations to Sean Fear for winning the election. I am in no doubt that he is the best of the Conservative posters here and this accolade is much deserved for maintaining impartiality, courtesy and honesty at all times (which is more than can be said for some others!)
I think HenryG is having the wooden spoon for six months and I’ll take it after that
My brother and his family have just returned from St Jean de Luz and had a wonderful time. Mrs Stodge and I are heading to San Diego and Las Vegas for our hols in a few weeks and looking forward to avoiding Conference season in its entirety.
Re: 92 - Perhaps we should have had a referendum on going to war, seanT ? The problem is, of course, that the “pro war” lobby would have won given the media coverage. In the same way, the media coverage now means it will be impossible to get a fair and balanced debate on the EU Constitition. I don’t mind arguing the point with you but with most of the newspapers in the “anti” camp, balanced it won’t be.
That’s the problem with referenda - it’s only the people who are going to win who want them. It’s the same as those who say there should be a referendum on the death penalty or EU membership.
We live (I thought) in a Parliamentary democracy. Just because Parliament doesn’t always reflect public opinion doesn’t make Parliament wrong and a referendum circumvents Parliment and the legitimacy the HoC has through the (admittedly) poor electoral system.
Parliament cannot simply function as a barometer of public opinion. Mrs Thatcher knew she had to do some unpopular things for the good of the country. Had she had to go through referenda, much of her economic policy would not have happened.
There is much illiberal anti-democratic legislation that has been passed by successive Governments which has curtailed personal liberties and the right to protest yet many worry about an EU Constitution which at least enshrines certain rights for the citizen. At present, the British citizen has no written Constitution and this has enablede authoritarian Governments to reshape democratic rights and obligations at whim.
its not about the “constitution” its about the fact one was promised to help get labour elected . end of discussion.
If Gordon was to show his balls and call an election next week for early October, presumably the party conferences would all have to be cancelled, hotels unbooked, police and security cancelled, delegates out of pocket, BBC/ITN/Sky cancelling their operations, a huge waste of private and public money running into several million pounds. Including the still virtually insolvent Labour Party’s money.
Surely the party conferences wouldn’t all go ahead as planned? It would be utterly without precedent wouldn’t it?
When there’s no need for an election for nearly 3 years, wouldn’t Gordon be risking the biggest sh!t-storm in history if he called an election now?
104. Yawn. Snore. Zzz. Who cares about all that? According to polls just 6% of the British people want to transfer more powers to Brussels, as proposed in the EU Constitution. Meanwhile 80% of people want to cede no more powers - and the majority of them want to actually take powers back or quit the EU altogether.
When the government’s position is backed by just 1 in 20 of the population, and opposed by 8 out of 10, on such an important issue - a parliamentary vote is not the way forward.
You know it, I know it, we all know it. Even the most prominent pro-Europeans now admit it - Keith Vaz and Chris Huhne have now come out in favour of a referendum. 100 Labour MPs want a referendum. Virtually all Tories want one. Half the Lib Dems want one. Most of the newspapers want one, the trade unions want one. My mum wants one. Everyone wants one.
Just give it up, you lost the argument.
And besides, even if you had a leg to stand on morally, which you don’t, the fact is we were promised a vote in the last election. That’s why Labour got into power. You simply cannot break such a solemn pledge to the people.
Just give us the vote we were promised. Let the People Decide.
Then, at last, we can all move on.
Just posting to say congrats to Sean Fear, now duly elected as the honourable member for PB.com, and well done to everyone else who got into the final round as well. Just a shame the election wasn’t AV… we can only speculate at what would have happened then (though Sean Fear would probably still have won anyway).
To SeanT, Jack W, Andrea and the rest: better luck next year!
Re; 107 - IF, as you say, the Labour Party made a promise in its 2005 election manifesto to call a referendum on any proposed EU Constitition, then that has to happen. I’ve always been happy to have a debate and a vote. You don’t need to bluster, rant and use the verbal flamethrower with everyone who dares put up a contrary viewpoint.
What we won’t of course have is a fair and balanced vote unless both sides agree to some fairly stringent groundrules on spending, media time etc. I don’t recall the 1975 referendum in detail but from what little I’ve read, the “yes” side had all the money and most of the media.
This time the “no” side will have all the advantages of an overwhelmingly favourable press and a numerically small but significant number of contributors such as Paul Sykes and others who will bankroll the whole thing.
Yes well done Sean Fear and all the other nominees.
I posted a few weeks ago about a rumour that GB was clearing decks for 4th October 07.
106 Who gives a shite if it upsets sky and bbc hotel reservations at some god for saken place by the sea autumn.
Yawn, seanT, go and bore the Basques.
107,
Thats the problem most people have moved on since 1975 and the last referendum on the EU.
However some won`t let go and keep regurgitating Marc Bolan records.
O/T Ivan Ljubicic is an ENORMOUS 200/1 for the US Open. It’s worth opening a http://www.sportingbet.com account just for this. Make sure you back him each way. My reasoning is here:
http://mrhenryg.blogspot.com/2007/09/1251-pick-value-to-make-it-to-final.html
Larry Craig resigns US senate seat after dodgy goings on in a public toilet… BBC
Stodge,
Surely the key argument in favour of a referendum is that the constitution irrevocably transfers significant powers to the EU and confers upon it state-like powers in terms of legal status, foreign policy, etc.
The convention is that one parliament can not bind a successor parliament. To my mind the treaty/constitution breaches the threshold for surrendering soverignty/bind successor parliaments that makes a specific plebiscite on the issue appropriate, relevant and necessary.
What worries me is the likelihood that this important issue will be hijacked by the UKIPpers, nutters and withdrawal fantacists.
111. Presumably all those organisations who have paid the party big money for stands, fringe meetings, etc. would then want the party to pay their money back.
109. Glad you agree. Let’s have a vote. Media spending limits are fine by me.
We will still win, whatever. Because the British people are overwhelmingly eurosceptic.
That’s the essential truth europhiles find impossible to stomach. Try.
114 Thanks Henrty. On.
Always Ready very narrowly beaten in the last at Sandown, but if you were on ew, still a small profit.
Been a great day.
Stodge - It was not only the Labour & Conservative Parties that promised a referendum but also the Lib Dems: from the 2005 manifesto ” We are therefore clear in our support for the constitution, which we believe is in Britain’s interest – but ratification must be subject to a referendum of the British people. ”
As it is clear that the Reform Treaty is little different from the proposed constitution for either Gordon or Ming to argue that it’s now a matter for Parliament (and there are arguments for that) is a betrayal of those promises and of the people who voted for them.
Lets change its name, change a few clauses so that the meaning remains but the titles are different then present it as a new treaty is both dishonest and weakens the case for Europe. The only reason is fear of failure - so what? if it was thought an important enough change to require the consent of the electorate on the specifics then it still is.
119. Thanks Peter - yes I was each way on that too. And thanks for the earlier winning tip at 11/2. Excellent stuff.
SeanT @ 107 - “we were promised a vote in the last election. That’s why Labour got into power.”
I’ve heard some idiot rubbish about elections in my time, but that takes idiot rubbish to a new level. Agree they should have a referendum though.
120. Yes. I think the tragedy of all this is that somewhere out there is a European ideal actually worth fighting for. But europhiles aren’t willing to let it happen organically, or with the consent of the people - they are determined to force it through, come what may, a disastrous tactic which will end up wrecking their own cause.
This latest debauchery of democracy - blatantly ignoring two referendum results, and trying to hoodwink the people of Britain by pretending the Treaty is different, is the saddest example yet.
The result is that everyone becomes more and more disgusted by the EU, so the EU has to circumvent democracy even more to get its way, because they can’t risk asking the people - so we get a vicious cycle of betrayal and lies and entrenched euroscepticism.
This is not good. It’s time someone stood up to Brussels and said: No, this is not the way. Time for a rethink. If that role has to be played by Britain, so be it. It won’t be the first time.
As William Pitt said after Trafalgar: “England has, by her own exertions, saved herself, and will I trust, yet save Europe by her example”.
117 Padarn Views on this: “219 Firstly I think miniscule chance of 2007 election for reasons Mr Smithson has given ad nauseam but as you ask…
Agree Cardiff North. But Montgomeryshire? Glyn Davies would put a large dent in Lembit’s majority but even he admits an election this year would give him nowhere near the time needed to build any sort of momentum.
Vale of Glamorgan. Hm toughie I thought the Conservatives beat most predictions by nearly taking this in May. However John Smith is Lib Dem like in his limpet tendencies would be knife edge struggle. I actually think the Tories would find CW&PS easier given their strength in that area and the resuls from May.
Labour Blaenau Gwent. Don’t know. If an election was held this year GB would hold it only because he thought he was certain to win. Blaenau Gwent therefore may very well stay loyal to the Law faction. I actually think he’d be under more threat in a close election nationally.
Plaid Ynys Mon most likely if they can squeeze others. They’ll make progress in Llanelli, but if it’s 2009 or later they may just give Ms Griffith a run for her money perhaps just perhaps. Ceredigion. Before the deal I felt yes. After I think the Lib Dems will find it easier to rally support particularly from Plaid/Lib Dem waverers. They fight hard anyway. Not to say Plaid couldn’t win but Mark Williams has a much bigger fighting chance now
For same reason I now think the Tories should have little problems in Aberconwy
Lib Dems. Concur although they shuld make progress along the M4. If 2009 or later keep an eye on Swansea West and especially now Newport East
by Punter August 28th, 2007 at 8:44 am
Punter,
I agree with your longer term view for Plaid in Llanelli (and would also add Neath a few years later).
I am not sure whether LDs can maintain their momentum in Swansea West or Newport East though…..they seem to have shot themselves very badly in the foot in the WA coalition negotiations, which will have set them back
by penddu August 28th, 2007 at 12:29 pm
223 TBH Most voters have short memories of these things, it’s Plaid who are taking the bigger risk in Aberconwy and Ceredigion on this. Swansea West you maybe right. They need to get their act together. Unbelievable they let Labour select before them. However two caveats one Labour’s choice offers some easy targets and PC they let themselves be hyped up in May and fell flatter on their faces there than the Lib Dems. So if the Lib Dems do get their act together it’s unlikely that’ll have any other competitors to Labour. Neath we’ll see. I’d have wanted to see greater progress in May to bank on that.
But Newport East easily their best performance of the night. Ironically if they’d won MG would have been out. Both they and the Tories performed strongly in Newport. Assuming no GE the same day next year I think Labour will take a big hit in the Council Elections from both. Like Llanelli for PC. Big ask in one go but definitely one to watch medium term. In terms of momentum Newport as a whole is clearly shifting from being monolithically Labour in both seats, to something in the West that the Tories and in the East Lib Dems may have hopes for even outside 1983 type years for Labour
by Punter August 28th, 2007 at 12:44 pm
122. Take your point. I phrased that quickly - and sloppily.
I didn’t actually mean the European cause was so crucial it won the election - I’m not that maniacally deluded on the issue (yet!) - I mean it was in the manifesto which won Labour power. Therefore it is ONE of the reasons they were elected.
123. Speaking as a pro-European, I don’t think it’s the public the Government fears on this, but the print media. Many of us felt we could just about win the debate on the Euro and could do it now the constitution/treaty with the right leadership. What isn’t up for grabs is that fact that a whole number of newspaper editors and proprieters will never be persuaded. That’s the perceived difficulty.
125. So do you support all Labour’s manifesto policies then, Sean?
126. You eurofeds ascribe too much power to the press. The fact is the British people are eurosceptic not because they are stupid, deluded, or easily led by Sun editorials, but because they don’t want to hand over power to an unelected bureaucracy in Brussels.
How hard is that to understand?
Moreover, if it were just the fault of the tabloids, how then do you explain the French and the Dutch Nos to this Constitution? The entire media establishment in both those countries was gunning for a Yes. There was no French Daily Mail pouring poison in the voters’ ears, as you would see it.
But they voted Non and Nee. So What happened there then? Surely the people couldn’t actually be…. eurosceptic. Could they? Sacre bleu!
If you think the EU Constitution is good for Britain, come out and fight your cause like men, before the tribunal of the people. Yes, you will have a lot of the press against you, but you will have the entire resources of the government - and Brussels - on your side. Seems like a fair contest to me.
Either way - Let the People Decide. It is the only moral course to take.
127. I believe governments, of any hue, should stick to solemn pledges made in manifestoes.
1. I’m not sure I saw the contest in such stark terms as that.
120
‘Lets change its name, change a few clauses so that the meaning remains but the titles are different then present it as a new treaty is both dishonest and weakens the case for Europe.’
Name change & no anthem are about it in terms of changes,EU politicians from Angela Merkel to the Spanish Foreign minister agree that the contents of the treaty are 90-96% identical to the constitution document.Perhaps of greater concern are the various comments from EU politiciuans and Brussels that the so called UK red lines are worthless.
If the treaty is such a great deal and so good for the UK why is the government so frightened to make their case and hold a referendum,and of course honour it’s 05 GE pledge?
grumpy-old-man @ 92 re clapped out Russian bombers — it says here the Russians are big fans of Dr Strangelove and will blow us all up.
http://www.slate.com/id/2173108/pagenum/all/
106. Bob. “If Gordon was to show his balls”
Another Tory smear….
104. Excellent post Stodge. If any evidence was needed that the voters aren’t to be trusted compare with the drivel that passed for a reply from SeanT at 107.
132 and 104-Roger and stodge- quite right on all counts. The tone of a plebiscite would be real lowest common denominator stuff- “get jailed for trying to sell a pound on bananas innit- thats being in Europe for you!!”
I cannot bear seanT inane twitterings on about a referendum. Not only is it mind numbingly boring, but intellectually vacuous.
132.
Arrogance does not become you. Who are you to judge the intellect and trustworthiness of voters?
Just because you support the Brown/Merkel concept of the 4th Reich doesn’t mean to say that the rest of us are so gullible.
In my book it is socialists and Brussels that are not to be trusted. Both expect sheep like obedience to their masters. You may be willing to submit but many of us are not. 80% according to the polls!
Let the people decide!
133 The regular monthly Mori polls on what issues the voters think are most important consistently show that just 3% consider the EU and constitution are is an important issue . That about equates to UKIP’s level of support and and does not justify Seant’s continued rantings on the subject .
I disagree, Iyson (93). I have always (almost always) seen Benedict, Steven Whaley and Robin as liberals who have somehow strayed into the Tory Party. Probably all three have their roots in National Liberalism?
The closest I find to a Tory of the Willie Whitelaw mold, is Stephen Fear, who commands respect (almost always), though nobody could question where his heart is (ans - not very close to Cameron), but always courteous (almost always).
The election (our PBC one) was interesting because, although run as FPTP, in practice it was AV, since voters could see how the field was spreading out, and cast their vote accordingly - ie exercising their second preference instead of the first one, where that would have made no difference to the result.
Apologies for rant but its curious that the centre left don’t want the people to have a voice - “better left to the professionals old boy” while the centre right, right and left , for different reasons on policies but basically because they think its their fellow citizens who should have the ultimate decision, are the democrats.
Its the Conservatives who perhaps unsuspectingly now recognise that the rights of the Queen in Parliament