Monday night thread
September 3rd, 2007To help ease the pressure on the server (especially after today’s outage), please continue your discussions here.
Many thanks
Paul Maggs “Double Carpet”
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What outrage? Please tell
1: ‘What outrage?’
Brown’s choice of ties?
It was down this afternoon for about 30 mins or so - routing problems with the site’s web hoster.
Double Carpet - with a poll tomorrow can you try a singleton Gordon (if there’s a 1% lead of course)
We should have had a Dave and a Gordon for CR
Sorry all- but can I please re-post this again from Slec from the last run- a worthy early contender for pbCOM contributor of the year
“198 et al. – US election. The bunching up of mega primaries in early February means that it is almost impossible to see anyone entering the presidential race on - either side - after Fred Thompson. Nobody else would have the time or money to build up a campaign or campaign organisation in Florida, South Carolina, NH and Iowa. Bloomberg has the money, but no presence outside of the northeast. And he’s too canny to blow hundreds of millions for the privilege of being labeled the man who failed to win the nomination. Gore has the brand, but would never be forgiven by the Clinton dem establishment. Gingrich has the ideological purity, but he’s smart enough to recognise his own lack of popularity.
It looks like this election will be defined by one of two issues – Hilary or Iraq – but probably not both.
Iraq/security is the one wild card where a random event could change the betting unpredictably. But right now Iraq is quiet(er) and the popular consensus pretty clear-cut: the voters don’t like the war and blame the Republicans.
I don’t expect Bush to be a big factor in the next election – he’s so isolated and invisible that Bush-bashing just seems cruel and irrelevant. Indeed, by next November it’s entirely conceivable that his numbers bounce back a little from these very low levels as premature nostalgia sets in.
So that leaves Hilary as the defining personality and topic for the election. Love her or hate her, everyone has a view on her. Because her play-it-safe campaign hasn’t put a foot wrong, early Dem doubts about her ability to beat the Republicans have been effectively silenced. Unless there is some skeleton hidden deep, deep in the cupboard (not inconceivable – so keep a few bob on Obama as insurance) it’s hard to see her not winning the Dem nomination.
The more Hilary’s lock on the Dem nomination becomes obvious, the more it will influence the GOP thought process. Finding a candidate who can beat her will be much more important than finding an ideologically pure candidate. Right now, in almost all the important states, Rudi comes closer to Hilary in head-to-head polls than any other candidate, so it’s still his to lose. Most of Rudi’s numerous skeletons are pretty much out in the open, but the more people scrutinize his real record in running New York the more the gloss will come off his 9/11 persona. Rudi’s (3rd) wife is by all accounts not a particularly empathetic figure and will not compare well to Hilary’s spouse – expect some unflattering coverage in the next few months. I’m not really sure who is the best insurance candidate to back in case Rudi implodes. Probably Romney – he’s a talented, hard-working politician with a far superior organization than the Potemkin-like Thompson.
Hilary, Rudi, Romney would be my 1,2,3 for the elections at the moment.”
by slec (in NY) September 3rd, 2007 at 8:40 pm
6-Slec- just re-read your post on the US situation for the 2nd time. It gets better. A superb, perhaps flawless post.
Nick Robinson has just quoted a 1 point Labour lead in tomorrow’s Times poll. October is off, then.
Tyson - I’m flattered. Thankyou. Of course, I have no personal desire to run for a PB.com election. However, should my party need me….
Con heading for it!!!!
SeanT. From the end of the previous thread. “The Brown honeymoon may be pretty short”. I agree. It’s all starting to unravel.
I’ve just read “On Chesil Beach”. Now that was a short honeymoon! Brown’s lasted longer but in the famous words of the prosaic Paul Daniels, “not a lot!”.
I’ve laid Labour seats at 313 and I plan to hold on to this position as I watch them drift down.
10 Labour without an MP in the Welsh valleys?
Newsnight polls on Iraq.
tax credit hilarity continues. regional news in norfolk leads with stories of 1 family being taken to court for 16,000 they have been overpaid. another case of a family paid 8,000 too much (received in 27 different giros posted on the same day!)total farce.
Populus shows Con 36%, Lab 37%, LD 18%, Others 9%.
Conservatives are polling marginally better than this in the 60 most marginal seats (based on the last three Populus polls), marginally worse in the next 60 most marginal seats.
Populus Con 36 Lab 37 LD 18
Slight change in methodology benefitting LD at expense of others
Here
8 Though on BBCi the lead story on the Tories is Michael Ancram slagging off Cameron for treating Civil Partnerships on equal footing as marriage and proposing a return to core values, using words like “vacuous” and “lacking an overall sense of vision and direction”- Cameron must be so pleased to have such a helpful bunch of MPs. He successfully turns round a poll deficit in a fortnight and failed leadership candidates, ex ministers do all they can to use Brownspeak.
If Benedict’s about perhaps he could add a Stupid Tory page to his blog to remind us of those who don’t seem to comprehend that we are called political parties because we act in concert and we are not political raves where everyone does their own thing.
9- Slec (NY)- it will be nice for a US version of chris from paris to emerge to cover US 2008 for pbCOM- so it would be good of you to give us your observations from time to time
I have got to say that the quality of your prose is outstanding though, irrespective of your US political coverage which is pretty damn good too.
9
312 - Yes, I’ve heard the theory too. An Obama/Gore ticket has theoretical appeal, but in practice Gore doesn’t want to be veep again. Gore would much rather be known as the father of the internet and the planet’s saviour from global warming.
Were Obama to somehow win the nomination the convenional wisdom would be for him to choose a senior southern democrat in the mould of LBJ/Lloyd Bentsen, but I’m not sure who would fit the bill in reality.
Well you’re prob right. But you never know. Once you accept you ain’t got it to be P but have leverage to cash in your chips as VP may not be so bad. Can see Gore being lauded as the man never too arrogant to serve his country etc etc. I’m sure Obama would throw in oversight of Green;and’s Glaciers……
That said otherwise. Richardson
18 At what point, did Gore start to become seriously weird?
I think the smart play right now is to lay Labour most seats trade on Betfair at 1.65.
As a chartist it looks as though Labour have bottomed out for the moment and a move back up to around 1.78/84 could happen quite quickly especially if we get one poll sowing a Tory lead.
Election date moving out from 2007 also just trading at 7.4 on Betfair.
19- when he was born
16. Shouldn’t worry. The main news of the week is British retreat from Basra. If Brown thinks this is gonna play well for him he is an idiot.
OK, even more of an idiot. The long-drawn-out defeat in Iraq is a living reminder of the New Labour war.
I wonder how the obvious American antipathy for Brown will play out, too. He may gain some lefty votes in Britain, but in the end being reviled by Washington is never good for a British PM.
16 - It really is unbelievable. Somebody said Cameron was thinning a bit on top recently. I’m just surprised he hasn’t pulled it all out!
Interestingly the poll gap has almost closed but Brown’s personal ratings have risen/Cameron’s down.
I know some people (Roger +) believe that Cameron is permanently holed below the waterline, but if his ratings begin to recover then we could be seeing substantial Tory leads again quite soon.
14- sean fear- out of all the recent polls this Populus one feels about the closest to capturing the public mood for an election. Lab Tories- neck, and neck; Tories probably doing better in the marginals mattering most, and the LD vote still holding up somewhat.
25 - it’s interesting that the Times believe the better performance in marginals is worth 20-30 seats over UNS.
24 I think it’s too early to say. Cameron has had a lot of publicity recently, and that would support Mike’s thesis that publicity for Cameron boosts the Tory rating. Equally, one could argue that it’s the prominence that’s being given to issues that favour the Conservatives that’s boosting the party’s rating.
19. After alien abuduction
Has Ed Miliband been going to the same Tanning salon as Peter Hain?
Arguably the most important finding of all these polls is that the Conservatives are winning a key demographic, the Over 65s, significantly so.
In the YouGov poll the Conservatives are five points ahead with the over 55s.
But this raises an interesting question about how the Conservatives might be doing with that key demographic - people over 65.
According to Populus, the Conservatives now command the support of 51% of the key demographic : over 65s : compared to 27% for Labour. Populus was condemned by some people as an unreliable poll when it emerged on Friday evening, but it has proved robust as it agrees with CommRes.
But it shows that the Conservative are are up from 39% to 51%, and Lab down from 37% to 27%, with the over 65s since 2005. In the last general election Labour and Conservatives were level pegging with this age group, according to Populus, but now the Tories have almost twice as much support in this age group.
CommRes finds Con 48% and Lab 25% amongst the over 65s, a 26 pp lead for the Tories.
Further analysis here.
28 immediately after he was born obviously
31 LOL!
oh dear, od miliband taking browns flak for him. a very bad day for brown. i predict 3 daves within a week!
16. Ted. That’s appalling lack of loyalty from Ancram, an experienced senior Tory and previous leadership contender. I’m very surprised. I’ve never been a fan but would have expected better from him.
Mind you, I can’t think of Ancram without recalling that cringeworthy image of him wearing a chunky Arran sweater, guitar in hand, threatening folk songs round the fire, when the Tories had that tieless bonding junket. I think when Hague took over the Tory leadership?
32- what has El Miliband got stuck in his mouth? With Brown, Balls, and now Ed Miliband the NuLab front bench appears to be littered with speech impediments (excluding Ruth Kelly of course)
35 - Toothache, obviously
Lol @ Newsnight going into a Health Club to interview people complaining about taxes biting into their disposable income
The trouble with spin is that you have difficulty turning when you come to a corner. Sky News paper review:Micheal Brown almost hysterically excited over Ancram’s attack on Cameron - rants on about the grass roots damage to Cameron caused by Labour poll leads of “level pegging”.
BTW do people take the Taxpayers Alliance seriously. What was their ridiculous report about today?
So Patrick Mercer is to defect to Labour?
Is that the same Patrick Mercer sacked for saying he had met “a lot” of “idle and useless” ethnic minority soldiers who used racism as a “cover”.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/politics/6431005.stm
Brown’s doing well. First the very valuable Quentin Davies, then silver boot in mouth Mercer.
Seems Cameron is dumping the type of red nosed, hang’em and flog’em Tories that make people reluctant to vote Conservative.
36-Alex- I have just caught that one. Next we will see an expose at Aldi complaining at the scandal of high prices. 7p for a tin of Aldi beans- shock, horror
Is that true or just a rumour about Mercer?
Heard him on Five Live saying he would be standing as a Conservative at the next election. That was about 5.30 tonight….
Greetings from North Carolina. Latest polls very bad news for GB. October looks out and I can’t see any reason why things should pick up sufficiently for him to gamble on next Spring. A sensible plannning assumption must be May/june 2009 with 2010 not out of the question. Yet the whole GB strategy is that he is head of a ‘new’ administration. The longer this Parliament lasts the harder it will be to maintain that feeling. If DC is a long way from an overall majority, GB will find it hard to get a majority of his own. see John Rentoul in the Independent. He’s smack on the money.
31. Multiple times in his life, they kept bringing him back for 6 monthly checkups.
Michael Gove on Newsnight now.
Smooth, assured and articulate as ever.
Oh dear- Ed Davey on newsnight- could his mum had not given him a bit of better advice.
Gosh- Gove, Miliband, and Davey- yes- we have the 3 stooges rediscovered. Watch Newsnight now
41 - No
bob ainsworth looks like bob carolgese (spit the dog)
41 Is that true or just a rumour about Mercer?
So far, rumour. The Daily Mail reports it using their favoured rumour initiation keyword ‘could’.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/pages/live/articles/news/news.html?in_article_id=479537&in_page_id=1770
44 “Michael Gove on Newsnight -smooth, assured and articulate as ever”.
My impression is that he is the most twee Tory in the frame who is such a geek that he will lose votes every time he appears on TV
43- Yokel- and obviously feeding him with pork pies every time. The guy is becoming increasingly rotund
50. In America hes a mere medium for tshirts….
20 I laid 2007 GE on Betfair this morning at 4.1 , should I cash in now for a quick profit or will the price drift out more in the next few days/weeks ?
49. Well this site is all about opinion ApRhys. But “twee”? I don’t see it. Gove is one of the cleverest, quick witted and humourous politician’s of his generation. My tip for future political stardom.
48 - no they don’t.
53- he reminds me of Rick Moranis- he of Honey I Shrunk the Kids.
52. If you can part lay to zero or small profit maybe thats the way then the rest is just maximisatuion.
37 The problem is the Bounce came back to earth rather too quickly for the commentariat to comprehend - they went off to Italy & France for August happy in the knowledge Brown was “10% ahead in the polls” and that’s still stuck in their minds. Plus “The Lurch to The Right” stuff was meant to result in Cameron shoring up the core not taking back the high ground.
Sorry if I come across a bit SeanT but Brown made me angry today - I used to think nothing could be worse than being stuck under the shower unable to turn off Today when Patricia Hewitt appeared without due warning but his answer to Humphries’ question on what do you say to the mother of the last soldier killed in Basra was sickmaking - “as I say each week”, good God Gordon these young men are being mortared, blown up, shot because they’ve been told their sacrifices will make the world better.
I want a leader who first thoughts each morning are of the young men he’s placed in harms way not how to get something over on Cameron. They are your responsibility Gordon, each and every young man and woman serving in Basra or the Helmand, they should have your attention, they should be sure that you recognise their service and that you aren’t exposing them to death for no purpose. That your government has a plan, has an exit strategy if things go wrong. Not that you’ll stand up and read their name off a list printed in large type at PMQs.
Evening all
Watched the Newsnight discussion for about 4 minutes then gave up. A very sterile conversation with Gove, Miliband and Davey all staying on or near the baseline. Gove was desperately trying to talk over everyone which made me think he was a little flustered by Paxo’s (poor) line of questioning.
On the earlier discussion of the LD performance, I think some LDs are a tad optimistic here. We did well in 1997 and 2001 primarily because the Conservatives were historically weak. Even in 2005, there was evidence that the Tory recovery would hurt us in some areas and seats were duly lost though that was balanced by gains from Labour.
I’m sure most Tories would agree that incumbent LD MPs are hard to budge but it can be done. My guess is the LDs will concentrate on no more than 80 seats nationally. It is entirely possible the LD vote will collapse in many seats and fall nationally but the seat tally won’t take too much of a hit (assuming a figure of 18-20% nationally).
It’s all about bums on benches - increasing the majority in Bexhill or Buckingham may make the local activists feel good but it doesn’t show DC the way to power.
I can’t see why people are getting exciting about Gordon’s new initiative. He’s just restoring the status quo. It was only in the Blair years that the boards of every quango, NHS trust, etc were stuffed full of card carrying party members. There’s a long tradition of members of other parties doing work for the government.
SeanF from last thread…
“I think the Lib Dems would struggle in Sutton & Cheam, Carshalton & Wallington, Eastleigh, Romsey, Winchester, Hereford, Torbay, Somerton & Frome, Taunton, a couple in Cornwall, Bath, Cheltenham, Manchester Withington, Rochdale, Chippenham and Oxford East, (the last two notional seats) but the rest should be safe, unless the SNP start gaining strongly at their expense.”
A fair analysis… I think that Eastleigh and Taunton are safe as I have said before, and I’d be surprised if the Cornwall seats went. North Devon might though. I’d take little for granted in Scotland. Ceredigeon looks dodgy too.
55. Some Americans were hoping the machine in that film could promise to drop them five dress sizes in a single zap….
53. I’m a fan of Gove’s journalism, but like many journalists who become MPs he’s having trouble developing the gravitas necessary for a serious politico.
When I see Gove sitting on a chair in a TV studio I’m always surprised that his legs actually reach the ground.
Maybe he will improve with age. Maybe he will just get more weird.
Quite a good writer and thinker though.
56 Thanks , can do that now at 6.4 ( it is not a vast amount ) but I feel the price will go out to 7-8 in the next few days so will hang on a while .
Gove is young bright affable and entertaining. As were Thorpe, Blair and CK. He could therefore be a runaway success… or not - but time will tell.
Jolly good show,Michael Ancram-your sneer that civil partnerships are an ‘insult to intelligence’ reminds many people that,unlike a large chunk of the old-school Tory Party,at least they have some intelligence to (allegedly) ‘insult’-joking aside,Ancram’s remark shows the true judgemental,niggardly side of the Conservative Party ,and goes a long way to clarifying why such a big chunk of the middle classes now ,intellectually,look down upon them
50,51 - I came to the conclusion that Gore was going to run after the girlfriend dragged me (kicking and screaming) to the Live Earth concert in NY. Gore looked seriously overweight - and jolly happy, especially when snuggled up next to some babe popstar who was making an impassioned plea to save the world.
And that was my epiphany. Gore wasn’t going to run for office because he was having too much fun being unemployed.
63. Dont get me wrong I think you are right, the tide of money is likely to go against an 07 date, at least in the short term, its just a matter of how you feel abouit risk on it.
*not* going to run
63. You can get 12/1 from Ladbrokes for a 2010 GE which can laid off at just under 7/1 on Betfair if you think 2009 is now the most likely date.
67 Missed the boat as price has come back in to 5.0 . if I had been quick could have bet and laid it again . No worry think the tides is now against 2007 as you say .
65 Patrick - Look at how well supported the Marquess of Lothian was in his attempts at leadership - he is as typical of the Conservative Party as John McDonnell is of Labour. Both conform to the prejudices of their opponents but both are outsiders.
I live in a village that votes overwhelmingly Conservative. Our monthly village newsletter last month included among the congratulations one on a civil partnership, and the following week when I popped into the village store one of the happy bridegrooms was showing the photos of the ceremony on the PC in the corner. There must be a few who are upset or don’t like it but at a villagers 80th birthday party in the village hall he and his partner were obviously accepted by the mostly OAP crowd as a couple. One of the good things to come from Blair’s government.
69. I’m off!
71
Sounds like the village store in Llanddewi Brefi.
70. I’m awaiting a drift on 2007 before betting on it myself. All my money so far is late 2009 & 2010 with 2008 left out totally.
69. Ladbrokes wont let me on. I assume its a error in their system as I doubt very much theyd be troubled by my betting.
If I’m up I’ll try again in an hour.
73 there’s more than one in this village though!
75. That’s the 2007 version of the sketch: “You can’t be civil partners because we’re the only civil partners in this village! Civil partners? It’s an insult to the intelligence!”
71.O.K,I am re-assured by your post,and objectionable that I found Ancram’s remark,I should be re-assured that it is an increasingly minority view.From the point of view of parliamentary democracy,we are crying out for a viable opposition,and I wonder just what/how/when/in what dimension can the Conservative Party become a modern,centre-right,forward looking party ,maybe on the model of other Western European centre-right parties-God,even I am starting to feel sorry for the Conservative Party-I need to lie down:wink:
69. caveman. I had just spotted this independently of you! But not as quickly. Amazing price! They have 2007 at 2/1. I’ve taken the 12/1 2010 to their maximum £25. I was surprised to get on as they usually only let you have one £25 bet on any particular outcome in their “novelty” political markets.
I got on quite easily just 10 mins ago Yokel. And I’m not laying off as I feel the price is going to tighten progressively and that 2010 is, in my view a 5/2 shot.
The point about what Mr Martian Michael Gove said tonight was that their famous “policy commission” reports don’t have any bearing on conservative party policy whatseover. Then why has Dave gone so far in endorsing some of the commissions’ “findings”, such as cuts in inheritance tax or tax allowances for married couples? Doesn’t seem very honest to me.
57. The timing of your attack on Gordon is curious. It is precisely because he does not wish to exposing our service men and women to “death for no purpose” that he withdrew them last night from an indefensible position in Basra.
I don’t think Patrick Mercer plans to defect (though he’s very much his own man and always has been). But if the Tories keep briefing the Mail et al that he’s not a “man of substance” (see the link at post 48) that could change. If they’re so relaxed about it, they would be well-advised to stop rubbishing him - after all, if he’s a wisp-like lightweight, why did they make him security spokesman? John Bercow, however, has been rubbished by his colleagues so often that it’s a mystery why he didn’t defect years ago.
Ancram - “if you can lose your head when all about are keeping theirs…”. Chuckle.
57 here here.
nickP how do i get on one of these citizens juries then? i would like to apply for juries on any of the following topics; Iraq, standards in public office, Europe, foreign affairs or constitutional reform. if not possible what about the speakers conference, can i go to that? will gorbals mick be chairing it to see fair play??
Re a 2007 election, four points.
Firstly Nick palmer has repeatedly told us he feels it is unlikely. Secondly the polls are moving sharply away from Brown. Thirdly Brown has said today that there is a time and a place for a General election but it’s not now. Or something like that. If it’s this year he will have to declare it pretty soon. Fourthly Nick Robinson has opined on BBC News at Ten tonight that it just won’t happen with these sorts of polls.
I can’t believe there is £400 available to lay at 6.8 on Betfair at present. I have already nailed my colours too firmly to the mast on this one to go in again but it looks great value to me.
16.Ted, agree with you about Ancram. Only problem is that much of his report card has obviously been written over a period of time, events have now moved on and it appears out of date and out of touch with the present political climate. I don’t think it will get quite the favourable reaction he would have hoped for.
57.”Sorry if I come across a bit SeanT but Brown made me angry today”
I felt the same and posted something similar in the previous thread. While our soldiers were negotiating a difficult and dangerous withdrawal in Basra which he did not even bother to tell the Americans about, he was playing politics at home. Today was the day he planned his relaunch after the summer recess, he used the soldiers and their withdrawal from the palace in a cynical and opportunistic way that left a bad taste in the mouth!
As I said early, he may think that it is good politics in the short term to behave this way against the Americans. In the long term he is making life more difficult and dangerous for military operations in two war zones where we rely heavily on the Americans for air support. The fact that he is solely responsible for the lack of realistic funding for our armed forces over the last 10 years despite the increased pressure that has been placed on them and their families speaks volumes about how unsuitable he is to speak for, or about them.
83.”only problem” should be one problem.
78. Theres my problem…I asked for more than £25.
Interestingly a big drift happening on Betfair for an early 2008 election. Out to 5.0. Early 09 is 3.05, late 09 is 7.4 and 2010 is 6.6.
re several. But the Marquess of Lothian is right in a way. Civil partnerships are ridiculous. To start with they’re discriminatory against heterosexuals and secondly they’re discriminatory to gays being an inferior pastiche of marriage. All we need - like Canada - is a gender neutral marriage act. It would have been a simple change but new Labour bottled it because of fears of the Daily Mail and then expect gay people to be grateful for the crumbs which fall from the table.
I should add that I completely missed Ladbrokes market on it previously and have the damn bet at smaller odds from elsewhere.
Cheers Caveman.
86, If it isnt early it has to be late. I feel that after say March 2008 thats the rest of the year ruled out unless something dramatic happens in the polls.
83. Rubbish - the Americans have known about British intentions for several weeks - Gordon went to the US and met with Bush specifically to make British intentions clear. The draw down in Iraq follows military advice that the troops are not achieving anything by staying where they are and getting mortared every day. Newsnight’s Mark Urban was able to reveal tonight - now that the troops have left - how insecure the base at Basra palace actually was, with only two entry/exit gates that could easily be ambushed.
89. Yep. Agreed. The 12/1 currently available with Ladbrokes on a 2010 election, admittedly to small stakes, could prove to be one of THE politicalbetting.com spots of the year! Well done again caveman.
90.”Mark Urban was able to reveal tonight - now that the troops have left - how insecure the base at Basra palace actually was, with only two entry/exit gates that could easily be ambushed.”
The Americans expressed surprise at the British withdrawal from Basra Palace this morning, they were obviously not informed before hand!
As for your other ludicrous statement, try listening to soldiers on the ground rather than Labour press releases. Did you missed all the casualties suffered by the military in Basra completely?
90 so we achieved our goals then? “how insecure the base at Basra palace actually was, with only two entry/exit gates that could easily be ambushed”. ie we leave the place in turmoil with no security. so we stayed for 4 years for no reason other than saving NuLabour face. shameful.
92 and 93 The decision to go into Iraq in the first place was controversial, dividing the Labour Party and the country. The current Prime Minister is in my opinion making a reasonable job of the policy of gradual withdrawal and leaving security to the Iraqis. He refuses to give an exact timetable, even though the irresponsible Ming the Mong demands it, because to do so would only offer a propaganda advantage to anti-British groups and it would put our troops in added danger.
I don’t know of any pressure from the armed forces to stay on in southern Iraq long-term, either from the officers or the troops on the ground. (As opposed to Afghanistan, which is equally dangerous but where the military feel they are achieving something)
On that note I am nipping off to bed but I will be pleased to carry on the debate with you tomorrow.
76 and previous - What the Tories don’t seem to understand is that some of us straights are waiting for the day when we can get civil partnerships too. Why should gay people get all the preferential rights…!?
95 - This would be so much simpler if the fudge of “civil partners” was never created and we just had “marriage” for all consenting adults, whatever their orientation or beliefs.
We have had civil ceremonies and registration for marriage for decades, I see no reason for this new term.
How encouraging that the Tories are doing even better than the numbers suggest in our top 60 marginals - and that’s at national level pegging.
I think Sean Fear was right when he suggested Labour’s votes are where they don’t need them.
Meanwhile Brown can’t call an election. The news will get worse and the Tories stronger.
I am feeling good about the GE!
browns performance yesterday was laughable. first day back and kiddie, partisan and untrustworthy behaviour all round. political defeat in basra, idiotic jury idea and cheap stunts with daft tory MPs. what a loser. i look forward to his first pmq embarassment.
Test - so Michael Ancram and the Daily Telegraph will just fade away. The Tory split will worsen. As I said Yesterday “No tax cuts, actually probably higher taxes and otherwise we’ll follow Labour policies for 3 years” as the Cameron election slogan seems to be, doesn’t really give the electorate much incentive to get rid of Mr Brown.
95/96 - didn’t Edward Leigh propose opening out civil partnerships to anyone who wanted them (e.g. the sort of surprisingly common scenarion of elderly sisters living together etc)? His motive was clearly (and I think he put it in these terms) to ensure that the move wasn’t seen as being akin to marriage for gays and it was heavily defeated. But in many ways it wasn’t a bad idea.
Well, this poll seems to have nixed the Oct election rumours. I’m sure Gordon is getting the same messages from all his polls/focus groups etc: Lead sharply down. The conference season has extra resonance.
Why are the tories incapable of being loyal? Labour, for all our faults, have been united with Gordon (I, for one, am delighted that he is PM and has reversed our fortunes - despite transient polls). Tories on the other hand can’t seem to wait to trash their leadership. I think they see it as some kind of virility symbol - i.e. if you don’t slag off the leader then you’re not a “true” Conservative. Like Labour in the early 1980s, the tories are just not fit to govern.
I wonder if anyone believes in Brown’s “government of all the talents” rubbish? As Rachel Sylvester points out in a good article to-day in the D.Tel he does n’t care two hoots what Mercer and Bercow think. The aim of the most partisan leader for some time is to destabilise and destroy Cameron. Fortunately for him, he knows that there lots of Tories (and the media loves them too) who throw a hissy fit because they think they’re being ignored and have absolutely no concept of loyalty to the leader - now Ancram.
Morning all, new thread now up.
103 redFlump - it’s a minority of Tories who are disloyal, probably the same proportion as in Labours “Usual Suspects” group but Jeremy Corbyn sounding off about Brown won’t get the attention that Edward Leigh gets, nor would say Charles Clarke as compared to Lord Lothian. There is a willing platform for Tory dissent in the BBC - not without reason as the despatch of Thatcher, the rumbles against Major and de-fenestration of IDS has shown.
Dissent is opposition stifled by the proximity of power - the Brown Bounce destabilised Cameron’s position so gave dissent an opportunity but this was built on DC’s earlier success had made it obvious to people like the the Marquess that a grateful party wouldn’t offer him a ministerial limo again. The Stupid Tory Tendency don’t care about the damage to Party in terms of electability because success offers them no role - so they argue about the “soul” of the Party.
97
You’re feeling good about the GE test, when weren’t you?
Its amazing, (all parties do it) someone who only a short time ago party activists/supporters treated with reverence, says something they don’t like, and they become instant scumbags.
Poor old Ancram, reading some of the comments on Conhome and this site, I’m expecting the poor ‘ol b****r to be labled a heretic, and burnt in parliament square.
Its soooooo tribal. Its certainly taken the shine off the polls.
I am an occasional reader.
I have been a party member and done my duty by voting Labour consistently from 1978. I am a bit troubled by our new PM’s odd behaviour; I thought he was going to look after the Labour heartlands. Instead he seems to be more interested in getting the Tories to formulate policies that I cannot vote for. Why has he asked two people who have been associated with extreme rightwing views to help the government. I don’t understand how an MP (Patrick Mercer), who has recently endorsed racist behaviour can add anything positively to government policy. Likewise that John Bercow was a member of the rightwing Monday Club that has Racist sympathies.
I am very uneasy about the tribute the Primeminister has bestowed on Thatcher as she sacrificed many of the jobs in Britain at her time of office. Thatcher ruined this country and I cannot endorse a Labour leader who says he admires her and her policies. I had hoped for a new start once Blair had gone but this seems to be a continuation of past mistakes. My membership comes up for renewal in 4 months time, if the PM does not revert to the style and policies he intimated in the leadership election. Then I will have to cease my membership of the Labour party and look else where for a party that supports working people.