What does Autumn 2007 hold in the world of politics?
September 3rd, 2007
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Firstly… today’s polls, including a DEAD-HEAT
ComRes in the Independent has Lab 36, Con 36, LD 15
YouGov for GMTV has Lab 38, Con 35, LD 15
Obviously the CR poll showing the parties tied will make the biggest news, but even the YouGov poll shows that Labour’s lead is now small. Is that it for Gordon’s honeymoon, has the “Brown Bounce” run out of steam - and can we say goodbye to the prospect of an autumn election? Further polls out soon should help to make the picture clearer, but right now it looks very much as though the Conservatives are back in the game.
Also today, in an echo of the 1997 election, George Osborne has stated that the Conservatives will match Labour’s spending plans over the next three years.
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A look ahead to the rest of the year
One of Britain’s wettest ever summers is almost at an end, and after the August lull, “full service” is set to resume in politics as September begins. These are a few of the key issues and events to keep an eye on over the next few months.
In the UK, the biggest story is whether or not Gordon will call the country’s first autumn General Election for 33 years. We should know by early October whether all the rumours have had any substance behind them, but I agree with the view set out in the Telegraph, that frankly, this could well be his best chance. The Conservatives seem more sure-footed now after a period when they seemed to be on the ropes, following their offensives on health and law & order. The bookies think that a 2007 election is less likely than 2008 or 2009 – prices are available here. I remain to be convinced that Labour’s popularity could get any better over the coming months and years under Brown, and summer 2007 may turn out to be his high-water mark.
The conference season is now almost upon us, and assuming there is no election, the TUC will be at Brighton from 10-13 September, the Lib Dems also there from 15-20th, while Bournemouth will host Labour from 23-27 September, and the Conservatives will be in Blackpool from 30 September to 3rd October. The TUC looks set to be awkward for Brown as resolutions have been tabled calling for a referendum (and indeed a “No” vote) on the EU Treaty, while the Lib Dem conference will be carefully watched for signs of any serious mutterings about Campbell’s leadership and possible jockeying for the succession. Meanwhile Brown will have his first conference as party leader, and the Conservatives will be looking to continue their recent momentum with a good conference at Blackpool, although it has been mischeviously suggested that Gordon might visit the Palace for a dissolution on the afternoon of Cameron’s speech.
Abroad, the biggest event looks set to be the Australian election, which is thought likely to be held in late October or November. John Howard is seeking a fifth term, but the ALP under Kevin Rudd has had substantial poll leads for months now, which don’t seem to have been dented by the revelations of his visit to a New York stripclub. A significant amount has already been traded on Betfair – best betting prices are here. Markets are also available on individual seats, including the PM’s own constituency of Bennelong.
In the United States, Fred Thompson looks set to finally enter the race for the Republican nomination on 6th September, and it will be interesting to see whether he has left it too late or not. Will his campaign catch fire or instead be a damp squib? Latest prices are here, and for me the man with the current momentum, and leads in the key early states of Iowa and New Hampshire, is Mitt Romney. Hillary is odds-on for the Democratic nomination, and it will be the earliest ever start to a nominating season, with the New Hampshire primary maybe as early as 8th January, and suggestions that the Iowa caucuses might even be pushed into 2007.
Elsewhere, a fire-ravaged Greece holds a snap election on 16th September, with recent polls suggesting that Karamanlis’ New Democracy is only just ahead of Papandreou’s PASOK, although on the markets, the former is heavily favoured to win. Switzerland, one of the few countries where turnout is lower than the UK for national elections, votes on 21st October, followed by Argentina a week later, which looks set to elect a woman president, while Belgium, which voted back in June, has already failed in the first attempt to form a government. Finally, both Nicolas Sarkozy and Angela Merkel are enjoying very high levels of popularity, with Sarkozy reportedly the most popular President since De Gaulle, and Merkel’s approval rating up into the 70s.
Paul Maggs “Double Carpet”
Guest Editor
Mike Smithson returns on 17th September
Paul Maggs runs The Election Game - click on the logo to email for more information.
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When you say “momentum” in the context of the Conservatives, can you clarify? Seems that they have been on a downward trajectory for the last couple of months …
“The Conservatives seem more sure-footed now after a period when they seemed to be on the ropes”
surely you mean
“The Conservatives seem more right wing now after a period when they seemed to be on the ropes”
And it all started so well for Brown….
Perhaps we could have a graphic with five Gordons and five Camerons to show (i) dead heat and (ii) LibDems not in the game?
Surely if Osbourne is going to stick to Labour’s spending plans for their first three years he’s going to have difficulty explaining how he is going to give married couples a tax break not to mention removing inheritance tax.
I’m beginning to wonder whether Coldstone is right about an October election. There is definately something in the air and keeping quiet for the last several weeks is a smart move if that’s what he has in mind. These polls are neither here nor there. Two or three popular pre election announcements and it’s in the bag. Probably a landslide.
Following on from 2 forgot to add this link to the man overboard in the Tories
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article2374038.ece
Morning Paul and thanks for minding the shop in Mike’s absence.
Firstly and on thread, there has been a fair bit of money placed on a 2007 GE on Betfair in the last 48 hours. Apart from the usual silly season articles, there seems to be little behind it. Certainly I should have thought the prices now represent a decent lay opportunity for those who, like me, still consider 2007 unlikely. Unless of course somebody knows something different?
Last night’s thread got very mucky (until Bob Dylan came along and calmed things down a bit.) Mainly for the benefit of newer posters, can I just say that it fell well below the phenomenally high standards which have made this Site a must read for PoliticoPunters. Ted and SeanT kindly suggested my absence was a factor. Thanks guys. I really do appreciate such warm words and yes, I do try to do my bit to keep people more on the punting ball and less on the mud slinging. As many have noted, the tenor of the debate is much more dignified when the emphasis is on the betting side. The absence of serious betting markets hasn’t helped but that’s no excuse.
Although I checked in regularly yesterday, I posted little. This is because it was the first day of a new betting venture I have started. It will keep me busy most days between the hours of 12 and 5pm and since I do have a little bit of a life outside of politics and betting (a very little it has to be said) I shall not be able to post as much as previously. This may be a relief to some, who tire of my nagging, but I do hope others will take up the slack and help to keep the miscreants in line. [Btw, I was the originator of the phrase Creatures of the Night, so I can confirm that they are neither left, nor right , but just pests - not harmful, just silly, strident and distracting.]
OK, that’s it for a while. I’m off to study form. I’ll let you know how it’s going and drop in the odd tip from time to time.
All the best.
Ho ho, a bit desperate this morning lads? 7 point swing to the Tories in a month on YG and two other polls showing a dead heat.
And far worse for Labour are icm’s regional variations - Con 43% in the Midlands, lab piling up votes in the already Lab held North.
Election now please! Con gain everywhere (apols to Ave it 07)
PtP don’t stay away! You’d be missed.
7 I think the Torygraph’s coverage shouls concern Cameron. Their Gord interview is ahem flattering and mentions the YouGov poll but not the Populus level pegging one. Throw in the departure of George Jones and it all looks a bit murky as far as support for Cameron from what used to be his Party’s inhouse paper goes
07 - “Election now please! Con gain everywhere (apols to Ave it 07)”
Yay! Recount at Bolsover, Ave it?
4 - “Surely if Osbourne is going to stick to Labour’s spending plans for their first three years”
Roger, not sure that is what he said - he said for the next three years. If Gordon ends up having to go long, not much of a commitment.
I still don’t think the Brown bounce is over. I tend to believe polls show a combination of general level, with an issues led around 3 points each way change depending on how good or bad the news is. I suspect Browns “natural” lead is probably down to about 2-3% but Cameron talking sense on law & order have made a temporary swing to him. I suspect once the headlines move on to a new subject we will get a few more polls of very slight Labour leads as the Brown bounce naturally erodes.
Thanks to Paul Maggs for his magisterial review of the world! - lots of interesting material there. A few comments:
- I really don’t expect an autumn election. I’ve said for some time it was a possibility if we were well ahead in the polls, but I di8dn’t really expect. As we’re not well ahead, it won’t happen. Simple as that.
- I do expect the lead to jiggle up and down for a while before we see a clear pattern. The current polls reflect a lot of good coverage for the Tories, the previous ones a lot of good coverage for Labour. The underlying position remains IMO that Labour is slightly ahead (both the polls above represent a swing to Labour since 2005) with plenty to play for, but the LDs do seem to be heading for a squeeze outside their existing seats, and need to look to their defences in those.
- I’ve not been following the US primaries closely, but Fred Thompson seems underrated - he’s got a modest deficit in the polls behind the controversial Guiliani, and he’s about to get a blaze of publicity. I see he’s 4-1 or so for the Republican nomination - looks pretty generous to me.
- The Swiss scene is more interesting for onlookers than usual. The right-wing populist People’s Party got a quarter of the vote last time and has a charismatic member of the rotating presidency (endearingly, the Swiss have no fixed leader, to avoid a personality cult - it rotates annually between the 7 Cabinet members). However, the last poll I saw showed them falling back and the left/green parties gaining on last time. The People’s Party has launched a nasty campaign proposing the expulsion of families of people who commit offences, with posters showing a black person being kicked out: it remains to be seen whether that will stem or accelerate their decline. They’ve also proposed to ban the construction of new minarets - a poll shows a lot of sympathy for that, as well as a general uncertainty what a minaret actually is!
I love Ave it’s posts.
Incidentally, very interest post on polling report regarding the publics attitude to crime and punishment:
http://www.ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/1022
4. Roger, the Conservatives will put up green taxes and the marriage tax break and scrapping IHT (which they haven’t committed to) would be a very small loss of revenue in national accounting terms.
9.”7 I think the Torygraph’s coverage shouls concern Cameron.”
Punter, my gut reaction was the opposite when I saw the Telegraph front page. The news today about a withdrawal from Iraq is misleading and extremely worrying, where was Gordon Brown on the issue? Oh yes, playing politics at home, more importantly the US were surprised at this move!! We still have soldiers in Basra, more importantly we rely heavily on the US both there and in Afghanistan for air cover because Brown has been so tight fisted with military spending while we fight two wars.
I think that he is being unbelievably short sighted and down right dangerous with his actions, as PM, his first duty has to be the safety of the soldiers in both wars rather than playing politics on this.
Hello all.
Well, these polls are exactly what I expected - a narrowing of the Labour lead to the “usual” 3-4% range . Nothing new here. The Tories have had a very good month, crime has been an issue, youth crime especially.
I always discount CR polls because of their extreme volatility (I know “I would say that”, butI don’t believe them when they show good results for Labour either).
17? Appeal Tory voters flattering two page profile. Not my reading. Re Iraq TBH I think there’s political/military consensus on this now. Neither Cameron nor Ming are exactly vehemently disagreeing with what is going on. The Generals want to concentrate on Afghanistan. I don’t think GB can be hanged by you on this
14 me too - one of my favourite posters
6. Good luck with your new venture, but please pop in as often as possible. It’s not just your calming influence and tips that would be missed by many, and certainly by me.
On your point about an October election now representing a good lay opportunity (at somewhere between 9/4 and 7/2 on Betfair at the moment - big gap), I won’t be taking it as I’m already rather more exposed on that market than I’m comfortable with. I’m not even sure if there’s value there. I know Nick’s sceptical above - and with today’s polls, there’s obvious reason to be - but polls can and do go up and down and if Gordon wants to have the option for an October poll, then it’s really a single-day decision when it comes to the conference - to roll the dice or not. The pieces will have to be roughly in place anyway otherwise he couldn’t call it even if he wanted to. A good September for Brown and the option will look attractive, even with the possibility of public sector disquiet (as always, Labour can use the threat of ‘the Tories would be worse for you’ in that sector; whether true or not, it will resonate). I’d say a one in five shot is about on the mark.
On Nick’s other point (I’m ignoring Switzerland as everyone else does
), I seem to be the only person wondering what the Thompson phenomenon is about. Actually, it’s pretty easy - it’s not about him at all, it’s about the rest being such a flawed field. Anyway, once he does enter the race and stops being an anyone-but-Giuliani/Romney/McCain vote bin and becomes a candidate in his own right, I can’t see his ratings holding up - what’s behind them? The interesting outsider might be Ron Paul. He should have no chance of winning but might be well placed to grab an early surprise. He shouldn’t last once the other candidates big guns start training their sights on him though.
The pressure for an autumn election is building, over the next two weeks it will intensify to the point, were GB will have to confirm or deny: hopefully he will confirm.
Over the last two weeks, the Tories have thrown everything but the kitchen sink at Labour, and its had some success, partly due to the street crime issue. If however the Tories can’t get above 36%, then their ability to, ‘win’ an election must be in serious doubt.
It is oppositions which in the main, need a, ‘cushion’ of a large lead before the start of the campaign.
Oh, forgot to mention: for those who are sceptical about in-house party polls, the leaked Tory one last week seems to have been right in line with the two today. Something to remember for the future.
8 Thanks Test, but it’s a question of money. At present I average about £1k per month from betting, but I want to crank it up to about double that so that I can completely give up the day job. In order to achieve that level of winnings I have to put in a lot more hours and change my approach. I have gone in with a mate and we are trying to crack the problem together, basically by playing on the Exchanges all afternoon, every afternoon. Doesn’t leave too much time for PB.
I will still be around though and I hope to cross swords with you again from time to time. When we have done so in the past, it has always been very enjoyable and in the best traditions of the Site.
18 Red Flump. Any opinion on these candidates: “Lib Dem selection process underway Swansea West. 4 Candidates all Councillors. Mike Day (Sketty), Claire Waller (Uplands), Peter May (Uplands), Mary Jones (Killay). Should be decided end of Sept.”
22 What are you on today. The question is not whether Cameron can win outright, but would Brown keep/increase his existing majority. That is what will determine GB’s call. Your desire to be proved right on an Autumn election is leading to some ludicrous statements
22. 26. The real ‘cushion’ is that which Brown embroidered for himself some months ago by arranging a post-election deal with the Lib Dems. He can afford to go for an election even if Labour and the Tories are neck-and-neck, as Campbell is waiting to slip into the role of Foreign Secretary and bring his rag tag army with him - that is of course what the Iraq announcement is really about…
26 - Agree, Brown must calculate weather he stands a greater chance of getting a majority now (with polls potentially on the slide) or in six months, or three years time… does he think he’ll be in a stronger position than he is now at any point in the future?
Current polls (which I’d still like to see confirmed) seem to be suggesting that the Labour lead is declining… can Brown and Labour risk that lead evaporating all together? Its a very tough call, if the current polls are to be believed (and their trend continued) then there is a very good chance Labour could lose it’s majority in an October/November election… but is it more likely that things will look better in six months time?
Either go for a November poll knowing that what ever the result its likely to be better than what you might find next spring or later (should the polls continue their current trend) or wait it out relying on the ever diminishing hope that “something might turn up” (now who was the last PM to opt for the later option?
).
28 Better for whom though? Would it better for GB to go for 2-3 years with a good majority even though the result maybe less good for Labour then. Or go now which may mean slashed or no majority which is clearly less good for GB who would be blamed and may lead a crippled Government even though the result maybe better for Labour overall than a later Election. What is in the interest of one may not necessarily be in the interest of another
26
26 Double expressos, as usual!
The GE when it comes, will not be about: Europe, referendum’s, Iraq, taxes, law-n-order, or any of the other things that exite so many posters to this site. There will only be one issue, do you want Gordon Brown to continue as PM, yes or no. When the voters are in that booth, clutching their stubby black pencils, I’ve got a pretty good idea what they’ll do.
It’s Brown or shall we take a leap into the unknown?
30. grumpy-old-man do you think that this should be Brown’s song at the next election > http://tinyurl.com/3b58jx
22. Gordon Brown has in effect completely ruled out an Autumn election on the Today programme about half an hour ago; in fact he has dismissed an ‘early’ election which suggests next Spring is out the window as well.
Mind you, his performance was so stuttering and broken I am not surprised he is in no hurry to go th the polls -Humphries floored him completely by daring to challenge him over the idea of inviting Tory and Lib dem Mp’s to work for the Government not having been run past their party leaders.
All in all, a 5/10 performance.
29 – I’d assume Brown will want to go for what ever is best for Brown. There have been repeated suggestions that he does not want to be a “fag end PM” (like Callaghan). But were he to go into an election in October/Novmeber and lose his majority, he could well find himself the leader of a minority Labour government relying on an assortment of LibDems and minor party MPs while also having to placate his own opponents within the Labour Party (who would likely only become emboldend where he to “stumble”).
Bearing that in mind, would not Brown’s (as opposed to the “Labour Party’s”) best interests and personal aspirations be better served by seeking to retain the healthy parliamentary position he current enjoys, enabling him to retain his post for a minimum of three years before having to risk it at a general election?… even if it might condemn the Labour party to very much worse electoral performance than if he were to go to the polls in October/November this year.
As it is I think Brown’s personal concerns will be every bit as important in determining what he does with regards to calling an election as the more long term concerns of the Labour Party, I doubt he’ll discount the later but I’d expect his own concerns to remain paramount and that could (and I stress “could”) be bad for the Labour Party in the long term.
All depends on weather the current shift in the polls is either the end of “BB” or simply a temporary reaction to the combination of Brown’s absence from the political scene, the Conservative “fight back” and emergence of crime as a pertinent issue… IIRC there are polls out later this week and they could well offer a better insight into what we are dealing with.
33 Exactly my point. We are in agreement. He’ll do what’s best for him. Some are calculating he’ll do what’s best for the Labour Party. I wouldn’t
31
Sums it up prefectly!
32
I take no notice over anything that politicians tell me. Politicians like all of us, are prisoners of events, once a bandwaggon effect starts to develop, then they have to respond, for fear of losing control of the agenda.
Marcus, Gordon Brown will never be a good media performer, he’ll never be a David Cameron or a Tony Blair, perhaps voters don’t care, perhaps they may vote for someone, who isn’t, who knows!
30 Labour have bet the farm on Gordon, no other likely leader in sight following his demolition jobs. If the Cameron Comeback proves more durable than the Brown Bounce there will be the John Reid’s and Charles Clarke’s making helpful observations, and Time for a Change will become the sentiment. Electorates tire of parties, they crave new faces and new approaches.
Cameron & Osborne are playig the game in saying we won’t upset the apple cart but we think the Government has failed in Crime, in Education, in Health, in Immigration, in Education, in Health, in support of our Armed Forces. Its presided over a broken society and has no answers.
I’ve always though Cameron would need two elections to win a majority - the pre-requisite being a weak minority or bare majority Brown government first. The reversal of fortune required - a 10% lead for a majority after 10 years stuck at a third of voters - is just to big.
Brown has had 70 days of his first hundred and he hasn’t done enough. Yes we’ll get part 2 this week but if the Tory leadership hold course then they will prosper.
35. I am not suggesting that bot being a media star is necessarily a problem. Mrs Thatcher and John Major were not actually that good in a studio.
But halting and obviously evasive answers like Brown came up with this morning don’t sound honest it makes you sound shifty. Gordon was appallingly obvious when he didn’t want to answer a question, spent far too long saying ‘aaah’ and ‘errr’ before dealing with Humphries curved balls.
He really doesn’t do this kind of confrontational stuff well at all.
35. personally I think this is how the UK feels about New Labour now > http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BJeDJ76edJA
Bad news … fot the Conservative doomsters who wish Britain ill in the hope of gaining power . Uk manufacturing has its best performance for growth for more than 10 years and share prices continue edging up on the Stock Exchanges .
7 - Test , I am not sure where all this sudden enthusiasm has come from amongst Conservative posters for statistically worthless very small regional subsamples of opinion polls but for what it is worth ( IMHO not very much ) Comm Research , Mori and Yougov lates Midland subsamples all show Labour in the lead in the Midlands . There was a post by Ted ( I think ) last night referring to very low LibDem figures in a Scotland subsample ignoring the fact that Comm Res latest Scottish subsample had Conservative even lower at 4% .
These subsamples are not weighted in any shape or form and it could well be that one pollsters subsample from say Scotland one month may consist of 80% grumpy old men and the subsample from London may contain only 5% grumpy old women but 70% middle aged women . Only the whole sample will be properly weighted .
I’m of the view that Gordon has two choices, go early ie 2007 or early 2008 at the latest, or go late ie within a few months of his limit.
The questions for Gordon re: election date are manifold:
1. Iraq: Is there going to be a halo effect for Gordon of getting the troops out of Iraq (physically if not in reality) or is it actually going to play negatively because there will be a very strong play on the story that Britain has failed. The slated timetable seems to be 2007/very early 2008.
2. The economy: A downturn is due and its coming. I don’t know if anyone has noticed, but the story about the wider economic effects of the money market turmoil is starting to build and get more expsoure. This in itself shouldnt be ignored. It may be a year before things start to impact but there is only a limited amount the UK government can do to ease the effects of the key issues, too much debt and less ability to pay it at side and less credit available at the other. The problem is, given the tools at a government’s disposal has the government given itself room to deploy those tools?
It could be a soft landing it could be rough but the damage can infect government popularity in a big way. It will be the first time Labour will have been tested on this issue with the man at teh top the same man who is acclaimed as the reason why Britain has enjoyed a decent economic run.
3. Everything else. What exactly are the good news stories for Gordon say in 2008 coming from that can be seen? Has anyone any ideas? The domestic agenda is no longer being led by Labour, though it isnt exactly being led by anyone. Crime, immigration etc are still on the agenda and its showing signs of actually seeping into people’s conciousness in a more fundamental way. Then there is Europe which does look to have some steam in its engine this time.
On the foreign affairs front there are no obvious sources of shorter term success, Iraq apart if the withdrawal is a success. Afghanistan is a long haul, there is still the lurking issue of Iran which the Americans are currently still determined to sort out and not hide from. Darfur? Forget it.
Finally there is the tired of factor. people get tired of governments. At the end of the day this isnt Gordon’s government its a Labour government and as time goes by it will be harder to separate those.
Assuming the opposition is halfway decent (a big if at the moment) then a government will have to work harder to prove itself and stay in.
From where I’m sitting Gordon increasingly has two choices. Go early before possible issues pile up or go late and try to sort some of the any forthcoming bigger issues on the domestic and economic front.
37
So what, can’t say that bothers me at all!
If Labour goes in October and loses its majority, and has to do a deal with other parties, Libdems who ever, can’t say that bothers me either. I think its time we started to look at other options, other than the political party anyway.
If John Bercow takes a job with GB, that may be a straw in the wind, looking to other like minded people from other parties, for support, what’s wrong with that?
Brown commenting on economic matters again today I noticed. can anyone confirm whether Alistair Darling has been abducted by aliens.
39. Uk manufacturing has its best performance for growth for more than 10 years and share prices continue edging up on the Stock Exchanges .
This is still a bit of a double edged sword for Brown. Manufacturing is in excellent health on the back of robust global growth driven by strong demand from China, India etc. but it also makes in harder for the BoE to cut interest rates. This is the conclusion on the front of the FT which points to a splurge in capital investment over the next quarter makes a rate cut unlikely. Mortgage rates are jumping up sharply because of sub prime and the liquidity crisis, probably the equivalent of at least a 50bp rate increase by the BoE, which is bad news for all those with mortgages or even short term debt. A stronger manufacturing sector will benefit far fewer people than will be hit by higher interest rates, especially as the average factory is now full up with hard working Poles.
Morning all
Unless something drastic changes this next couple of weeks, I think Brown will hold off as long as possible. Already the opinion polls have narrowed to margin of error (and probably much more reflective of current opinion than the 8% plus leads), and somehow he should have called an election two weeks ago.
Yes, economic downturns may happen. At the same time, they may not. Things could indeed get better for him, although chances are they remain like this at best - generally winning the war but not miles ahead as some believe.
As for his Daily Telegraph spread today, not too sure why this is happening. Granted, the DT doesn’t like Cameron, and would rather a “true” Tory in charge, but even so its readership hates Brown far more.
And as the Lib Dems decapitation strategy in 2005 shows, naked political opportunism doesn’t really transfer out of Westminster
Brown dying on sky as we speak. stuttering, vacuous and pointless.
Interesting round up their Double Carpet. I wonder how tempted Merkel would be to hold a snap election if she could? (My understanding is that it is technically possible but difficult).
Also it will be interesting to see what the next few polls do to the “Brown Bounce”.
45 - “Brown dying on sky as we speak”
Blimey, that’s a bit of a drastic way to get sympathy votes
44. Correct the governmemt could come out well in any economic downturn. The question is, is it better to get yourself elected before testing that theory, try to see things through to better times then try to get elected or try to elected in the middle of tougher times?
13 Think, Nick, that it was a People’s Party senior MP who caused a storm last week by complaining about the three black players in the Swiss national team - “it’s okay to have one chocolate, but not a whole box”. Glad nobody could possibly even think that in mainstream politics in this country
Brown should go now to the country, ASAP, this Thursday if possible. If I were advising him, I’d be pleading with him not to hesitate. A narrower but working majority of 30 or so lasting until 2012 could probably be secured now, and is better than the alternative of waiting until 2009/10 and trusting to fate that things are okay then, when they may very well not be.
Brown not a good media performer shocker! This is part of his charm, people! People can tell a phony (i.e. Cameron) a mile off.
39 Mark Senior - agreed about low sampling but Scotland does look a two party state at present with both Conservatives & LibDems suffering and probably both getting well under 10% in polls (4-8% depending on sampling errors) - who has the most to lose?
51 LOL
48. Unlikely. In a real downturn, the pressure on the public finances will be intense and Brown has left very little room for manoeuvre here by running significant deficits even in the face of steady growth. He would be faced with the choice of greatly expanding borrowing (bye bye prudence), raising taxes/cutting spending significantly, or both. This is the same toxic mix which did for Major’s government in the early 1990s. Labour will be desperate to avoid this scenario.
**** Peter the Punter Breaks Jack W and Nick Palmer Recount Deadlock ****
After the 56th recount the deadlock in the Jack W and Nick Palmer recount drama was spectacularly broken after Peter the Punter announced he was abandoning PB in the afternoons for a spot of exchange trading and rumpy pumpy tiffin.
Under Rule IV of the PB elections guide, recently revised by Scottish voters, Mike Smithson and a bottle of whisky, any post luncheon withdrawl by candidates of PB within seven days of an election, will result in the highest placed 104 year old Jacobite being allocated an extra vote from the departing candidates total.
Accordingly and in a spectacular triumph for democracy and malt whisky Jack W moves one ahead of Nick Palmer.
Speak soon PtP !!
24 - the very best of luck Peter, and if you find time in the future, come along and let us know how it’s all gone, as an aspiring pro punter I’d be interested in hearing your thoughts and experiences of it all. All the best.
52 Ted , you are correct except for Mori . July Mori had LibDems at 17 and Conservatives at 13 in Scotland and June an astonishing 21 and 16 respectively . Clearly they get their samples in Scotland from a very different source than other pollsters . I repeat , these regional figures are worthless .
41 You’re not bothered about Labour’s majority. Err do you think GB is?
44 You’re not sure why? Answer in two words. Simon Heffer
34.”33 Exactly my point. We are in agreement. He’ll do what’s best for him. Some are calculating he’ll do what’s best for the Labour Party. I wouldn’t”
Totally agree with that assessment Punter. Brown has a well known track record for this. On the Brown article in the Telegraph, I just don’t think it appeared credible and can’t see it lasting until tomorrows edition never mind long term.
40.”From where I’m sitting Gordon increasingly has two choices. Go early before possible issues pile up or go late and try to sort some of the any forthcoming bigger issues on the domestic and economic front.” Yokel, do you think that Brown has done enough to cushion the UK from a world wide economic downturn? If he does not go early with a GE, he runs the risk of taking the flak if we do not have a soft landing in a possible recession.
Meanwhile …. ConHome is reporting that as expected John Bercow is to accept a Brown appointment in an advisory capacity.
However the PM has also bagged Patrick Mercer !!!!!!!!!!
NOT.
Mercer was my second surprise “defection” candidate some weeks back.
Will they …….. ????
I dare say the asylum will go bonkers !!
http://conservativehome.blogs.com/torydiary/2007/09/bercow-and-merc.html
40 Yokel, yes, you are absolutely right. Economically, although their may be a manufacturing upturn at this moment, the overall trend is indisputably towards recession. Some are saying that all is fine and dandy, share prices are on the up and up again, but if Barclays is having to go cap in hand to the Bank of England, as it has, all is most certainly not well. We are at the beginning of a recession right now…. Now factor in a crash in October, starting in South East Asia. One much more far-reaching than the shenanigans of the middle of August. The more share prices go up before then, the further they will have to fall.
51.Part of his charm, you are joking?? A poor media performer is just that, but add in that awful gulping mannerism and its really annoying as well. Saw Major being interviewed recently, and as someone pointed out up thread, neither he or Mrs Thatcher were great performers in front of the camera but they never looked as uncomfortable as Brown.
In this day and age a politician needs to be at least comfortable and natural in front of the camera, Brown might have got away with it 20/30 years ago as did Mrs Thatcher but not now.
Thanks for the various comments. Can I echo PtP’s remarks - parts of yesterday’s thread did fall below the high standards that we normally have on pb. In Mike’s absence, can I ask posters not to make personal attacks on each other, and to refrain from using bad language - there are plenty of other sites available if you want to slag people off or swear at each other. One of pb’s strengths is that most of the time, lively debate doesn’t degenerate into abuse, and I (& I’m sure Mike too) would be grateful if we could try and keep it that way - many thanks for your co-operation.
Benedict - my understanding is that an early dissolution is possible (eg Schroder in 2005) but not something that happens frequently as in the UK. My gut feeling is that the current Bundestag will go full-term until September 2009, and even though the CDU-CSU has big opinion poll leads over the SPD, seat projections show that it’s touch and go whether it would be a traditional centre-right CDU-FDP government or another grand coalition. Clearly barring a catastrophe Merkel already seems assured of a second term as Chancellor.
Double Carpet (Guest Editor)
51: ‘People can tell a phony (i.e. Cameron) a mile off.’
People voted for Blair.
30. grumpy-old-man do you think that this should be Brown’s song at the next election > http://tinyurl.com/3b58jx
by Jimbo Jones September 3rd, 2007 at 9:13 am
LOL! - certainly fits well with Browns camp demeanour and “gay” past [annual holidays in the Cape Cod gay playground of Provincetown]
63 The German polls all agree SPD support is well down on the 2005 GE but do not show much if any increase in support for the CDU/CSU and show them well below the incorrect high poll figures prior to the last German GE .
61 Another typical disaster round the corner post . I expect you were predicting an imminent recession when Labour took power in 1997 too . Boy wolf and crying .
64 - Ah but that’s just where you tories went wrong. Blair was actually the “real deal”. No trimming or lurching to the left from him. Cammy is Blair-lite - but only in his dreams. He is already shoring up his rightwing core now that those tory leads have evaporated. Too cocky by half.
61. If there is going ot be a crash, I would put my money on it starting in the US.
The problem for Gordon is that even if there isn’t a recession, most ordinary people are still finding themselves worse off. Real incomes are basically falling, mortgage rates are going higher. This is reflected in the latest news form the CBI which states that business investmetn is high, but retail sales etc, consumer services are faring poorly. Uk consumers are beginning to feel the pinch. Which is a very good proxy for the feel good factor.
Hmmm there seems to be a lot of, ‘lurch’ about, Lurch wasn’t he a character in the Adams Family? David Cameron as Lurch, the mind boggles.
70 - AND he’s thinning on top. I noticed the scalp underneath that sidewards parting on Newsnight. He’ll be like IDS by next year. In more ways than one.
71 see 25
First Quentin Davies and now maybe Mercer and Bercow … definitely improving the average quality of both Labour and Tory camps.
Bercow’s main achievement, if I remember rightly, was to ask about as many Written Questions as the rest of the Shadow Cabinet put together when he was (briefly) a member of it. Anyone remember anything useful he did with the answers?
Well, I think we can rule out an Autumn election now. Only a fool would call a snap election with a poll lead of 0-5%, and Brown isn’t a fool. I did find the Telegraph coverage pretty odd today. Their spin was at odds with the facts they were reporting.
WRT my point yesterday about anti-capitalist Conservatives, I think British Conservatives were ahead of the pack in embracing capitalism (apart from romantic intellectuals like Southey and Carlyle). On the Continent, I ‘d say the weight of Conservative opinion was hostile to capitalism until well into the nineteenth century. Christian Democracy has also never been that keen on capitalism.
72 - Hi Punter! Sorry for not replying sooner. I have no idea about three of them, but I have heard of Waller, who was my councillor until I moved last month.
The LDs have really shot themselves in the foot in Wales and will not gain Swansea West. 2007 was the nadir for Labour in Wales and we can only go up from here.
I think Brown might be well advised to call an election this October. I heard Brown this morning and I agree there are points of concern. He seemed strangely unsure even mentioning Blair. Presentation isn’t significant but he does have to appear commanding which he didn’t. Perhaps backroom boffin is what suits him best?
I have no doubt that in an election next month Gordon would win by a landslide. He’s highly respected and I can’t see the country handing it’s future to a Cameron/Osborne team at this time. In a couple of years I’ve no doubt Cameron will have raised his game and Osborne will have been replaced by a heavyweight.
74 Why on earth do you find it odd? Surely you know as long as Heffer is there a DC led party will get support only through themost gritted of teeth. Every column practically he mentions his loathing of your Leader. As Assoc Editor he carries weight
74 With a few articles today you get definite feel they were written last week on assumption that the Brown Bounce was still healthy and while sub editors added a few changes to reflect the two polls published today this just made the authors look foolish.
Andrew Porter in DT is the same guy as the one who recently as a Sun journalist spun the Gordon landslide story “The Sun’s Andrew Porter will become political editor and has appointed Robert Winnett of the Sunday Times as his deputy. James Kirkup also joins as political correspondent, from The Scotsman.
did Vaz welcome the arrival of ‘racist’ mercer to the labour team??
Jack , sorry I missed the vote for the Pber of the year - I am sure I would have voted for you or possibly Nick Palmer.
Re the election does Brown go now (i.e October) and risk a market crash in the middle of it, or wait and hope that the crash (which may happen after October) will have been forgotten. As the Conservative party have discovered once Mr Lamont destroyed their image as economically competent they have had a devil of a job rebuilding it.
Still think “No tax cuts, and we will do whatever Labour would do” is going to be a difficult slogan for Cameron to fight under.
75. Agree that LDs have shot themselves in the foot (& a few other places) in Wales, and seats like Swansea West are now reasonablly safe for Labour. But I dont agree that Labour can only go up - they have still got leadership problems in Wales, and can expect to be squeezed more from both Plaid & Conservatives. If election held tomorrow Labour would lose Cardiff North & Aberconwy to Conservatives, Ynys Mon & Arfon (notional loss) to Plaid, and would be in trouble in Vale of Glamorgan, CWSP & Delyn.
The LDs can also expect to lose Ceredigion to Plaid and Montgomeryshire to Glyn Davies.
Just found myself an internet cafe and am catching up. The keyboard is different - hence the Qs when you want As. Now why is there not harmonisation of that? I cqnnot even find the at symbol for doing emails.
Thank you Paul for all you have done and can users support him by not getting into the sorts of spats that were here last night.
As to the polls - exactly as had been preedicted here. Cameron out of news = Labour leads. Cameron in news = Tories move forward.
Control Alt 2 usually seems to work Mike!
77 I used to have some sympathy for Heffer, but the relentless whinging does get on my nerves. Quite a lot of what Cameron has done in the past has annoyed me intensely, but it becomes very boring to just cry over spilled milk the whole time.
81. With a surprise result in Brecon & Radnor we could be close to Lib Dem wipeout in Wales…a shining prospect indeed…
58/75 - thought Heffer wasn’t Assoc Editor any longer? Although the guy could turn the Conor Pass into Chernobyl just by breathing
78 - Interesting that these sort of stories run just as the Tories get moving upwards in the opinion polls again. Maybe they are just awful timing, or something more of an agenda?
Not sure if anyone has mentioned that Brian Paddick has confirmed that he is seeking the lib dem nomination for London mayor.
I also noticed that some news outlets persist in saying that Boris wrote the Liverpool baiting Spectator article, I thought it was Simon Heffer and Johnson took the rap or am I thinking of a different subject? More shoddy journalism and probably actionable.
“As to the polls - exactly as had been preedicted here. Cameron out of news = Labour leads. Cameron in news = Tories move forward”
That would apply equally to Ming or Gordon. Everybody knows that if you appear on TV your ratings go up. Otherwise advertisers wouldn’t pay such outrageous amounts for 30 second slots. And Cameron hasn’t been off air for at least three weeks. On national TV a campaign like this would cost several million pounds. If M&S had run a similar one they would have hoped to increase their sales by more than 3%.
81/85 The Mori regional sub samples for Wales show LibDem support at the same level as the last GE but Conservative support down .
I think Gordon is making a big mistake in offering all these jobs to Tories, without actually getting them to defect in the process.
1) It helps significantly in the whole “decontaminating of the Tory brand process”. You can hardly continue the whole “all Tories are evil, don’t give them a chance of power” line, used so effectively at the last election few elections if you are offering jobs to them all over the place. Especially when you offer jobs to ex-Monday club members or those who have been sacked by Cameron for “racism”!
2) Leaves a hostage to fortune in the future, if they come up with all sorts of ideas and Brown doesn’t listen to them. Allows them to go public with statements like “i was prepared to take a chance that he was serious about consensual politics but clearly i was wrong”.
86 The Bercow announcement was I think planned originally for Gordon’s first weeks (certainly Ed Balls highlighted more coming soon in the first week) but obviously held back when fire bombs took headlines - Gordon’s grid re-adjusted with decision to deploy Bercow for September re-launch. Disappointed by Patrick Mercer taking the bait; he came across (as he doubtlessly is) as an honest man with a lot to offer and not naive enough to expect that accepting the post of advisor to the Government he’s opposing wouldn’t harm his party.
73: when there was a rumour of another impending Tory defection a few months ago, it was hilarious to see Tories lining up to denounce everyone who had been mentioned as a possibility - they were all useless, about to be deselected, bitter, senile, etc. Presumably some red-faced apologies followed.
The Telegraph today is following the press tradition that if someone gives you an exclusive interview, you’re fairly nice about him. Pretty silly not to be, as otherwise you’ll never get another one. Similarly, the Guardian isn’t rubbishing Osborne today as they’ve got an article from him.
90 true - and also if Cameron is snesible and is relaxed about this it just shows the country that it is tories who have the fresh thinking and new ideas - Labour talent is so lacking in the HoC they’ve been forced to look elsewhere.
The upside for Gordon though is it does show he is New Labour to the core and he must be hoping this helps in the South and Midlands marginals - I’m unconvinced.
85/89 Cant see LDs losing B&R or Cardiff Central though. And as everyone keeps saying, you can not rely on regional samples - they are just too small - and Wales has too many local variations within it to make any poll meaningful.
UKPaul. Where do you get the information that the Spectator editorial was written by anyone other than Boris himself. He certainly doesn’t say so.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/3758340.stm
Incidentally read the Compass article in answer to Andrew Gilligan’s piece in the ES. As I said the other day to claim that Boris was anti Iraq war and anti Bush couldn’t be further from the truth. Nonetheless the Compass piece answers Gilligans very selective article comprehensively.
87 - Heffer “had a hand” in that Speccie leader, and it’s believed he could have been responsible for the “more than 50 dead” about Hillsborough.
IMO the Telegraph don’t want Brown to win, but they want Cameron to lose badly.
90 - how much the Quentin whoeverhewas defection hurt? Not really that much, if I can’t even remember his name.
And if the Tories’ big problem in the past hasn’t been their message so much but the people espousing them, then you’re right - it does help their detoxification stategy.
Although if one wants to be cynical, perhaps they’ve both accepted the “advisory” roles just to ensure Cameron gets a direct line into what Brown is thinking.
I see LibDem Matthew Taylor is also joining what one might cvall the extended tent - people who aren’t joining Labour but willing to advise the Gvoernment on their areas of expertise:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/6975708.stm
alex, I think John Bercow has shed his Monday Club past a very long time ago - or are you seriously suggesting he still harbours their beliefs (do they still exist, by the way?)?
86
Heffer comes across as a has-been. Sour grapes and bile. I doubt he convinces anyone but the already convinced. Personally I find him objectionable and no longer read him. Hee seems to hate Cameron more than Labour.. an attitude of cutting off your nose etc.
91
Mercer
I thought the man was a political idiot at the last spat. I now know it.
98 - the guy does come across as a nasty bit of work TBH. Does anyone know why he left the Mail?
Is Gordon Brown the re-incarnation of Uriah Heep ? Ever so “umble” he insincerely recruits help from outside his party. His ambition is fuelled by his lack of ability to express it when working for Blair (Mr Wicklow). He is eventually thwarted by DC (!) and Mr Micawber (Boris?).
Gordon Brown instructs John Bercow on his new role.
101. Sorry - link failure.
Peter the P, don’t leave us!
You are indeed a calming influence. There was some abuse flying around last night. For instance I was called a “nasty piece of work”, a “pub bore”, a “seducer of women in Brittany” [I quite liked that one], Roger advised Nick to tell me to f*** off, Nick implied I was an alcoholic, Mrs Test also claimed I was an alcoholic, and someone said I was a eurosceptic obsessive with a penchant for p0rnography (possibly fair comment).
Now I don’t mind this kind of stuff. Cause I dish it out myself. But I can see how others might find it offputting.
However I would like to make an overarching remark. I think our spats reflect something of the wider political world (as they should do - we are a seismograph, detecting movements in the tectonic plates under British politics).
To put it less florally, I think an edge and tension has entered British politics again. This is partly because the Tories are really challenging Labour for the first time in a decade. That makes everyone a bit more aggressive.
Also, two issues are starting to dominate the scene, both of which are highly inflammatory. The first is Europe. It may not matter to most people, but there is real and heartfelt bitterness in some circles at the government’s attempted betrayal over the referendum issue.
Secondly, there is Iraq. Given how awful Iraq is, it is remarkable we don’t talk about it more. But people weary of death and despair, and avert their faces. However, as the British actually withdraw from Basra, and the scale of our defeat becomes apparent, I think it is re-entering the political consciousness - and stoking the fires of anger once again.
For those reasons it is quite understandable that our arguments will become more heated. It’s probably inevitable. But that doesn’t mean we should stoop to low abuse. High abuse is better.
I wonder what Labour MPs think of Gordon’s view that in the whole of the Labour party there isn’t anyone as good as Bercow (ex Monday Club) or Mercer (sacked by Cameron for possibly racist comment about soldiers.
Don’t comment Nick - it may be reported back!
95 - I didn’t find the Compass rebuttal anything other than bluster and half truths, the way to attack Johnson is on grounds of competence, if you and others persist in attacking him on character then Livingston will lose. I don’t understand why they are going for such a wrong headed campaign, base it on character and Livingstone will be slaughtered in the carnage also.
Heffer has already admitted to the Spectator article and, at the time, it was known that Johnson only editorialised it (which, as editor, was to be expected). You can say that Johnson should have censored Heffer’s opinions but you can’t say that it was his article.
The news articles seem to be all subscription but here’s one which you can see the beginning of - http://www.highbeam.com/doc/1G1-123768673.html
105 - BTW the fact that Johnson decided to shield Heffer, if it was to become wider knowledge, would be something that played in his favour.
‘81/85 The Mori regional sub samples for Wales show LibDem support at the same level as the last GE but Conservative support down . ‘
I thought you said those regional subsamples were meaningless? Or are they only so when they show the Libs down? Make up your mind!
An interesting comment on the BBC site from Brown, which I don’t think has been picked up on here so far:
“There would also be a Speakers’ conference bringing together all parties to discuss the decline in voter turn out, weekend voting and the under-representation of women and ethnic minorities in the House of Commons, he added.”
For two of those problems, the answer is clearly to introduce as soon as possible a system of STV. On balance, Brown seems to be coming along nicely, doesn’t he?
105 I agree. Attacking Johnson as an extreme right winger is just plain silly. I’m an extreme right winger, so I do recognise the genuine article. For negative campaigning to work effectively, you have to reinforce doubts that already exist, and in this case, the mud just won’t stick.
I note that both of the latest Yougov polls show a strong recovery for the Conservatives in London.
For two of those problems, the answer is clearly to introduce as soon as possible a system of STV.”
Well, he’s hardly going to do that, is he?
Most people would say they lacked credibility, Glenn (107). But if you Tories want to believe them, then the inference that you have to make is that the Tories are doing less well in Wales than the Lib Dems.
What Mark Senior writes makes perfect sense.
107 No they are meaningless as I have said many times but I am quite happy to quote them when they differ from the views of those who appear to think they are meaningful . There was a post on Anthony’s site yesterday that claimed the Conservatives were leading Labour in Wales .
Sean - Rubbish! The Tories are at the magnificent 36% (maximum) of those expected to vote - Turnout looks like being in the 50s next time. The Lib Dems have failed to inspire. I am afraid that the public feels it doesn’t matter who gets in.
I see no case for aggression.
As for Europe - “It may not matter to most people” says it all. I do regret that no-one is making the case for the EU, or offering real leadership there. But most people think that on balance the EU is “a good thing” - which I think could be even better if we joined Schengen and the Euro.
109 Gawd , another Conservative quoting regional subsamples as meaningful , and pb.com poster of the year too .
Aha, found an insider reference to it, th whole article is quite funny but this tells of how Johnson was peripherally involved in the article at best.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/article641132.ece?token=null&offset=12
81 Pen Ddu re-pate below from previous thread to pick you up. Re Dely I think Clwyd South and Vale of Clwyd would go be fore that. Were that to occur naturally: “223 TBH Most voters have short memories of these things, it’s Plaid who are taking the bigger risk in Aberconwy and Ceredigion on this. Swansea West you maybe right. They need to get their act together. Unbelievable they let Labour select before them. However two caveats one Labour’s choice offers some easy targets and PC they let themselves be hyped up in May and fell flatter on their faces there than the Lib Dems. So if the Lib Dems do get their act together it’s unlikely that’ll have any other competitors to Labour. Neath we’ll see. I’d have wanted to see greater progress in May to bank on that.
But Newport East easily their best performance of the night. Ironically if they’d won MG would have been out. Both they and the Tories performed strongly in Newport. Assuming no GE the same day next year I think Labour will take a big hit in the Council Elections from both. Like Llanelli for PC. Big ask in one go but definitely one to watch medium term. In terms of momentum Newport as a whole is clearly shifting from being monolithically Labour in both seats, to something in the West that the Tories and in the East Lib Dems may have hopes for even outside 1983 type years for Labour
by Punter August 28th, 2007 at 12:44 pm”
109. Sean Fear: “I’m an extreme right winger, so I do recognise the genuine article.”
Are you? You don’t strike me as one!
How do you define “extreme”?
It is is too early to say that the ‘West Lothian’ Brown bounce has gone. Let’s wait and see what the the next set of polls say, but I do believe that the odds of an October or November election will lengthen.
If we are going to have an October General Election, the most likely date for it to be called is September 25th (which just so happens to the last day of the Labour Party Conference and the day when the leader gives his speech).
114 Only a straw in the wind. The same sub-samples in 2005 pointed to a relatively strong Conservative performance in London.
119 Following PTP’s earlier comments re the 2007 Betfair price which I have agreed with , I have modestly laid the price at 4.1 . It was much too short IMHO .
112. Mark Senior.
“There was a post on Anthony’s site yesterday that claimed the Conservatives were leading Labour in Wales .”
I read this too. You laid into the guy even though he admitted he misread the figures and apologised for it. You’re still doing it now.
You seem to have a very unpleasant and condescending manner towards other posters. Both on here and on polling report.
Yes, I know I can be rude to others too. But, unlike you, I’m not a smug g1t who’s up my own a*r%$e.
119. That throws up a number of interesting questions.
1. When was the last time an election was called when parliament was not sitting? October 1974?
2. What do the BBC and OfCom rule books say about the situation of a party conference (i.e. the Tories’) being held during an election campaign. I suggest it is not covered and Brown runs the risk of the Tories getting far more coverage than normal during their conference and him being frozen out. Risky.
3. Would it look like chicanery, spin and unstatesmanlike to the electorate?
119. Do you think Brown wants to call a GE before the Tory Party Conference as a means to wrong foot them and to deny them media publicity?
I contributed this yesterday and it is still true today, 24 hours on. All this febrile speculation does not take away from the underlying truths, and there has been no seismic shift to change them.
Isn’t the electoral arithmetic that baring unforseen
circumstances,in the next election, Labour will lose their overall majority. A short term “bounce” is unlikely to overcome this, and it seems to have passed anyway.
The only way to create the opportunity to retain a majority, is to play it long - 2008, 2009 or (my preference as a serial anti-tory) 2010.
If the liklihood is a hung parliament then he wants as long as possible in power to do as much as possible - for the sake of “his (and his Party’s) place in history”.
I thought the last couple of years of the Major administration was an example of this. Getting the last dregs of the Thatcherite agenda on the statute book before they were kicked out seemed to be the most powerful driver of their actions - rail privatisation for instance
Playing it short, medium or long: each has risks, but playing it long means you at least get the chance to change the country - he’s been waiting 10 years after all, and he is (in his bones) a policy wonk, unlike Blair.
Labour is not yet as intellectually knackered as the Tories were in their last few years. That will come in the 4th term if they get one.
So my punt remains as it always was. Brown bounce has been usefull but has not led to a tectonic shift in opinion, so unless the Tories behacve particularly stupidly, play the long game = no election in 2007. I don’t think that has changed since the day he became PM
113. Do you not see a causal link between your line “I’m afraid most people feel it doesn’t matter who gets in”, and your support for an EU which, due to its increasing power, means it doesn’t matter who gets in?
I suspect you don’t. Which says it all for me. And says a lot about the Lib Dems.
But I won’t spell it out cause I’m playing niceynicey today. And I’m off for lunch in a mo.
122 Judging by many of your posts , a smug g1t up your own a*se is a pretty fair self portrait .
Dare we criticize Brown’s Citizens’ Juries ? Does Magna Carta mean nothing to us? Did she die in vain?