Just “one Gordon” from Populus
September 4th, 2007- Will it be time for the “Daves” soon?
More confirmation that the Brown Bounce is over with a Populus poll in the Times today which gives Labour just a 1-point lead.
Headline figures are Labour 37, Conservatives 36, Lib Dems 18.
For anyone who’s still tempted with a 2007 election, it’s currently available at 5.5 on Betfair (9/2 in “old money”).
Meanwhile, former Conservative deputy leader Michael Ancram has warned against the party making “vacuous reforms” - are there any Tory posters on pb.com who think that such interventions help the party’s cause?
-
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Ancram’s hissy fit may be the main story on the Beeb’s website. But on Breakfast News it’s not one of the headlines mentioned at 7:45.
Crikey - a couple of days away from posting and the world changes! I should stay away more often, and Cameron would be assured of victory…
Brown Bounce has clearly slowed, and we are well back in the game.
I expect to see Brown pull ahead a little in the next polls, as I think yesterday’s consensual noises will play well with some centrist-swing voters concerned at whether Team Cameron will do an Ancram or stand firm in the centre.
The poll from the marginals is very interesting - not had time to study it yet, but a headline of 37/36 brings us back in to hung-parliament territory. I owuld have liked and expected to see us on more than 36, but is is a solid enough base from which to progress.
Limited posts from me for a while - new job yesterday and all that.
Evening all
Watched the Newsnight discussion for about 4 minutes then gave up. A very sterile conversation with Gove, Miliband and Davey all staying on or near the baseline. Gove was desperately trying to talk over everyone which made me think he was a little flustered by Paxo’s (poor) line of questioning.
On the earlier discussion of the LD performance, I think some LDs are a tad optimistic here. We did well in 1997 and 2001 primarily because the Conservatives were historically weak. Even in 2005, there was evidence that the Tory recovery would hurt us in some areas and seats were duly lost though that was balanced by gains from Labour.
I’m sure most Tories would agree that incumbent LD MPs are hard to budge but it can be done. My guess is the LDs will concentrate on no more than 80 seats nationally. It is entirely possible the LD vote will collapse in many seats and fall nationally but the seat tally won’t take too much of a hit (assuming a figure of 18-20% nationally).
It’s all about bums on benches - increasing the majority in Bexhill or Buckingham may make the local activists feel good but it doesn’t show DC the way to power.
by stodge September 3rd, 2007 at 11:18 pm
So Stodge can you balance again. Since it seems the only question is the scale of the reduction against the Conservatives, the question then becomes what opportunities for advances against Labour
I always thought Ancram was a moderate sort of old buffer. He’s come out like some sort of headbanging Cornerstone Groupie.
Ancrams main claim to fame is that he used to do a killer rendition of ‘Peggy Sue’ at Conference on guitar.
Other than that he was on the Bridge when the good ship Tory crashed in 1997 and remained with one hand on the wheel when we ran aground again in 2001, and then helped us choose Capt IDS.
I think we can manage without his advice, thanks.
“Full steam ahead for the iceberg on the Right…”
Lol on this Poll Baxter has Ld’s down to 24 seats! Is a good laugh
And so, the worm has turned once more.
I had always said Brown’s best chance would be immediately. Once he’d accepted appointment as PM, he should have asked for a General Election straight away. The honeymoon was never going to last more than a few months, helped along by favourable conditions.
2010 it is then.
5 Are you not a tad concerned the Torygraph seems to have transmogrified under Heffer’s influence into the Daily UKIPOGRAPH
9. I don’t own shares in the Telegraph; so no.
poGwas !
10 Err I mean as a party cheerleader, I mean if a few more your UKIPOGRAPH readers in Torbay opt for Farrage that makes your life all the harder when you need every vote to remove the limpet that is a LD MP
4 - no, I think he’s more of a 1950s sort of Tory MP. Fairly One Nations and socially very reactionary. “Where will it all end? They’ll be legalising abortion and homosexuality next…”
It’s still a little premature to say that the Brown bounce is over, although it’s pretty clearly on the downslope now. Before Brown took over there was a good Tory lead, so any improvement for Labour on that position means that there’s a remnant of the bounce left. Still, I’m breathing a little more easily about my bet on there being a 2007 election.
Is the Ancram intervention helpful? No, not really - but nor is it likely to have much impact. How many of the public know who he is? Backbenchers sound off with sufficient frequency that unless there are specific criticisms that resonate with the public - and there aren’t here - it should be regarded as nothing that much out of the ordinary.
It’s also worth taking the opportunity to take a step back and remember one of the driving factors behind Cameron’s repositioning in the centre-right (though certainly not the only one, and not even the most important). As someone with a background of significant wealth and advantage, he would have a much harder job of selling a relatively right-wing message than someone like David Davis or Michael Howard. It would be far too easy for Labour and the Lib Dems to portray him as looking after the interests of himself and his friends - irrespective of the merits of the argument. So when the 13th Marquess of Lothian criticises him for not talking enough about tax cuts, the same dynamics apply. Unfair perhaps, but that’s politics.
RedFlump (4). Ancram IS “a moderate sort of old buffer” - you are quite right.
I find it rather disquieting that, as soon as a venerable and revered Conservative figure questions Cameron’s judgement - quite right that they should do so, for after all Cameron is all things to all men and it totally unfit for high office - he is immediately torn to shreds by a savage pack of young Tory wannabes.
One thing that used to be a characteristic of the Conservative Party was respect for one’s seniors and betters. Alas this is no longer the case.
Myself, I blame Thatcher.
I tbink it it’s far too early to be writing off the Brown bounce. What’s happening is that the Tories are coming back not that Labour supporters are moving away. In addition Brown has picked up 2-3 per cent of LD support which looks as though it will stay.
On top of that Brown controls the agenda because he’s the one in power.
What’s great from a spectator standpoint is that we have a completely absorbing battle ahead as Labour tries to hang onto a majority.
Personally I think that Cameron’s core vote strategy is a mistake and Brown has yet to prove that he’s a strategist - not just an astute tactician.
Mike Smithson - from the cyber café.
14 exactly right David - Ancram’s idiotic bleatings will do no harm to DC and could actually help reinforce the message that the party has changed.
16. Mike. What do you mean by Cameron’s core vote strategy?
16 Have you read Anderson yesterday? He argued this is not a core vote thing but part of a grid. Cameron will not bang on about this from now to election day, but he felt had to mention them at some point. The reason Anderson argued was because he felt he could at last after 18 months of doing contrariwise expectations. You remember the poll showing people liking policies until told they were Tory policies. The brand was completely contaminated. Anderson argued that Cameron felt the brand sufficiently detoxified to now address these issues briefly. Whether he is right of course is another matter
Oh dear, oh dear for Ancram. Just as the Tories begin to look serious and credible - evidenced by 1 Gordo above, then someone breaks ranks yet again. I can only agree with posters who say that the Tories just don’t want to win nearly enough. This is no McDonnell - it’s an ex-deputy leader. Think of Prescott or Beckett sounding off like this.
Not just stupid to speak out, but talking rubbish as well. Cameron has worked hard to appear less vacuous - sharp suits on Newsnight, policy review groups coming up with specifics, and speaking on key Tory issues. And on such a delicate issue such as civil partnerships - where I think the exact right decision was made - it needs to be handled far more carefully than describing them as an ‘insult to the intelligence.’ Reminds me of Cameron’s biggest blunder when he called his own supporters delusional.
Every time I wonder why the Tories aren’t steaming ahead, monents like this tell me exactly why.
OH!
It looks like the sheeple are waking up… the polling data is
radically different to last week when we were told Labour would win an election by a landslide now they’re hanging on by their fingertips, is Big Brother producing fake polls? (worth remembering that Brown’s ‘friend’ Deborah Mattinson is a director of a polling firm which has beeen the recipient of £3m in government contracts [see below])
QUOTE
Voters end debate on snap election
The chances of Gordon Brown calling an autumn general election were disappearing fast last night as an exclusive poll for The Times showed that Labour is under pressure in the key marginal seats that it needs to win an election.
The Populus poll, undertaken over the weekend, also shows that the two main parties are now level-pegging, at 37 per cent for Labour, down two points compared with five weeks ago, and 36 per cent for the Tories, up three points. On these figures, Labour would have an overall Commons majority of about 20, compared with 69 at present. This indicates that a hung Parliament, with no party having a majority, is be a real possibility.
MORE:
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/poli…icle2381829.ece
…
QUOTE
Gordon Brown’s friend wins £3m in contracts
Deborah Mattinson, the Prime Minister’s favourite pollster, is now being described as the “new Philip Gould”, after the man renowned for his mastery of focus groups and called one of the main “architects of New Labour”.
But The Sunday Telegraph can reveal that over the past two years, one of Miss Mattinson’s businesses, Opinion Leader Research (OLR), has won nearly £3 million worth of contracts across an astonishing array of government departments and agencies.
MORE:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml…2/nbrown102.xml
Ah, does anyone remember the days when all people talked of was the prospect of an Autumn 2007 election?
I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again - May 2010.
And I still think Roger knows someone highly-placed in whichever pollster it was that came out with that 10 point lead for Gordon.
But that’s all behind us now - silly season nonsense. I knew it would come right as Tory voters returned home from sunnier climes and picked up the phone when the pollsters came calling.
As to Ancram, a surprising intervention, but I do think his underlying message is right. I’ve been waiting patiently for some red meat for ages, and I’m a moderate, centrist Tory not a right-wing loon. However, I do feel a respected senior Tory should be having words with the leadership rather than peddling his wares in the Telegraph. It is clearly unhelpful.
20 - “Think of Prescott or Beckett sounding off like this.”
Ancram is not really in the same league. He was briefly deputy leader when the Tories were at their most ineffective. The other two were Cabinet Ministers for 10 years.
‘Fraid to say, Ancram is largely forgotten by the public. Prescott certainly isn’t!
15 - “One thing that used to be a characteristic of the Conservative Party was respect for one’s seniors and betters.”
By that logic, Ancram should keep his thoughts to himself and “respect” his leader’s position while also recognising that his own “recommendations” for the party were pretty comprehensively rejected when he last stood for the leadership.
Having said that I’d dispute that “respect for one’s seniors and betters” was a hall mark of the Conservative Party, instead I’d maintain that historically it was “discipline” that characterised the Conservative Party – it’s not respect of status or rank for their own sake that has ever characterised the Conservative Party instead it’s the ability to achieve status and rank through individual effort and graft.
But I am in danger of going wildly off topic… in relation to the Populus Poll; potentially (and I stress “potentially”) suggests the “BB” is on the wane and may be gone altogether before Christmas, however I’d expect the real test of this theory to come as we see the impact of Brown “re-emergence” and the conference season on the polls… as it is I think there’s a fair chance that we are in fact seeing the end of the “BB” although some fluctuation over the conferences would seem possible. The challenge for Cameron is to rebuild his own personal ratings that took a real hammering over the last six months, if he can do that then the Conservative position can be strengthened considerably.
Despite these polls showing Labour falling back, I cannot tell you (as a Labour supporter) how much better I feel now that Gordon is PM! We were heading for the abyss under Blair and Gordon has given us more than a fighting chance of a 4th term. I couldn’t ask for more. Game on!
20 - Prezza or Becket sounding off would be good for Brown, break from the past and all that. Ancram is similar, now if it was Gove or Osborne or Lansley or someone then Cameron would be in trouble.
The Eliasch thing could have been damaging but, as it seems to be being tied in to funds, the evil of loans and the attendant whiff of corruption rears its head. A good reminder about loans for lordships (and we’re still waiting to see the evidence that apparently showed that there was ‘no case’) and, if Eliasch really is going to work for the government, it’s messy for labour as well.
Cameron’s big problem remains the right wing press, they are impressed by the fact that Brown is more socially conservative than would be expected of a labour leader. They could keep making his life difficult.
20, 23 “Think of Prescott or Beckett sounding off like this.”
Perhaps a better comparison would be Roy Hattersley: former Deputy leader, former Cabinet minister and hysterical critic of all things Blairite.
14 - Backbenchers sound off..the difference is than when it’s Labour backbenchers there’s very little coverage.When it’s a Tory, no matter how obscure, it gets full media coverage.
Actually Ancram has a bit of form. Back on the backbenches he suddenly came out against the Iraq war. Not the same direction as the present hissy fit.
As electioneering as not begun yet at local level, what possible explanation can there be for a difference in poll numbers in marginal constituencies ?
The main move in the poll seems to be from Labour to Lib Dem. But it is clear that the electorate is not too convinced by any party at present.
fr - Ashcroft money is already flowing into marginal seats and could be a factor.
29 - I think its highly likely the “Ashcroft Campaign Machine” has been purring away quietly in many target seats for months now, with plenty of candidates having been selected and been in place for some time now, so its likely that electioneering is pretty advanced in some seats from a conservative level, admittedly at a much lower level to that which it is likely to reach at a general election.
25. Redflump: “We were heading for the abyss under Blair and Gordon has given us more than a fighting chance of a 4th term”
Mr. Redflump, I know you get excited by Gordon, but it surprises me sometimes the way Labour activists fail to recognise that Blair was the greatest electoral asset they ever had.
Remember - Blair managed to achieve a majority of over 60 on 36% of the UK vote after one of the most unpopular wars of all time. Why? He was a master of capturing middle-englands crucial swing voters.
Gordon looks like he won’t achieve that even on a better UK vote share.
Yes, you probably had to let Blair go. But Gordon doesn’t have anywhere near the electoral appeal Blair did!
29 - Mr Ashcroft and his millions?
Things are interesting now, aren;t they? The tories seem to be back in the game (if they can keep their headbanging tendency under wraps). Labour’s position has been transformed since Gordon became PM. The only political blot on the landscape is the (despite the times poll) apparent underperformance of the Lib Dems. Ming has been absent from the scene for nearly two months now. He pops up whenever Iraq features in the news, but lets face it - most people have tuned out of Iraq. He needs to hit hard on the domestic front but he just doesn’t seem to have the will or the ability to do so. The carbon-free UK thing was good and imaginitive, but got scant publicity and was only featured by the usual suspects. If Cameron as leader of the opposition needs to keep his face in the news, this is x10 for a third party leader like Ming. Instead, he bumbles on to the news to drone on about Iraq, looking like Skeletor’s grandad.
Should the Tories be short of the odd bob or two and if Liz Windsor opened up the trading of titles to private enterprize then dear old Michael Ancram could come to the aid of the party as he’s not short of the odd peerage or twelve … yes twelve …. bloody greedy if you ask me !!
Earl of Lothian (twice)
Earl of Ancram (twice)
Viscount of Briene
Lord Newbattle
Lord Jedburgh
Lord Kerr of Newbattle
Lord Kerr of Nisbet, Longnewtoun and Dolphinstoun
Lord Kerr of Newbattle, Oxham, Jedburgh, Dolphinstoun and Nisbet
Baron Kerr of Kershaugh
Marquis of Lothian
15. His attack on gay relationships not being equal to straight marriage quite clearly shows he belonged in the last century.
Well done Vion on winng the competition!
Do any Conservative posters think these interventions are helpful? Well I don’t.
Europe, we are as a party broadly Eurosceptic.
Marriage, in favour of tax breaks for them.
Tax cuts, when we can afford them.
What does he want? Blood?
22. The time for red meat is in the run up to an election. Anything before then will be spun and then stolen by Labour.
33 Spot on - Blair was grudgingly respected by Tory voters, whereas Brown is despised by them.
35. Just a couple more than you, then, Jack?
33 - Hi Casino. Oh yes I remember Blair in his stardust years. He could walk on water and convince Hitler that social democracy was the way forward!
Unfortunately, he got involved with this moron from Texas and we all follwed him, believing in him as we did. We are now in a quagmire in Iraq and that is partly his fault. The public had tired of him and as sentimental as the Labour moevement can be at times, he had to go. For all his faults, Gordon was (ans still is) the obvious successor. You don’t stay Chancellor for 10 years for nothing.
35 JackW: “if Liz Windsor opened up the trading of titles to private enterpri[s]e”
If?
I think Blair and his tennis partner got there ahead of you, Jack!
37 - long run they won’t hurt Cameron (and indeed makes his detox programme easier) but right now, especially with relatively good poll news, they must be seriously irritating.
I see quite a few more of these sort of stories coming out, especially in the Heffergraph, now that an election in 2007 looks pretty unlikely.
Surprised by Ancram though, he always seemed a bit of a solicitor-in-a-small-rural-town (think Anton Rogers in May To December)
41 Yea, yea, yea, but does he have TB’s ability to win elections, i.e. can he appeal to a sufficiently large element of the electorate? Probably not.
Clearly DC has a problem with the old guard Conservatives. They loathe him.
IIRC Mrs Thatcher had the same problem: the old style (One Nation) Conservatives (of her day) loathed her.
Just goes to prove (if one needs it) that th CP is full of a load of old buffers - all the time - who are not afriad to speak their minds.. which are usually firmaly set around 30 years in the past.
42 Bob S. And Lloyd George and sundry Conservative PM’s too !!
40 Mack. Not even close !!
41: “For all his faults, Gordon was (and still is) the obvious successor.”
I disagree.
Brown and Blair were the obvious candidates when John Smith died. They both agreed that Blair was the better option electorally. Brown was the loser of that one. He was until then the more senior figure of the two, and is older. How 13 years later it can be said that post-Blair, the loser of the two in 1994 is now the natural, obvious successor is beyond me.
Isn’t it usual in succession planning for the successor to be younger than the predecessor? A dynamic young Turk replacing the old has-been?
They’ve gone backwards in this case. I saw there was a programme on the telly last night called “Grandad’s Back in Business”. I thought it was about the Labour Party Leadership at first…
(In fairness, it was more likely to have been about Ming)
45 - being slagged off by the Tory old duffers didn’t hurt Fatcha’s electoral chances back then. Probably won’t hurt DC now.
The Tories’ big problems don’t come when the old duffers snipe at the leader, it’s when the old duffers are in charge (ref: 1997-2005)
33/41. One of the key elements of the Blair election winning magic was the sense that he was separate from his party, dragging it kicking and screaming into the centre ground. The reality was that the majority of Labour members only accepted Blair’s leadership as a route to power; he was never ‘one of us’. The electorate liked that about him; he was the acceptable face of the Labour Party and allowed the middle class to support Labour against their traditional prejudices.
Cameron is hoping to pull off a similar trick, appealing to the centre ground over the heads of a party the electorate fears is full of goggle-eyed right wingers. Every Ancram intervention that doesn’t knock him off course reinforces that image. [The only fly in the ointment is the loss of discipline such interventions represent, as referred to above.] Cameron wants the voter to say to herself; “It’s OK to vote for Conservative policies again because Dave is there to keep the party on the straight and narrow.”
Brown, as RedFlump correctly points out, is a Labour man through and through; a machine politician up to his jowls in the blood of party infighting and a battle-scarred veteran of campaigns to push Blair off the straight and narrow. He cannot appeal to the middle ground in the same way, because he is Labour, true Labour.
Brown’s only hope is that people give him credit for seriousness and his well-spun track record as Chancellor, and that Dave’s strategy fails.
You can still get cons most seats at 2.48 on betfair..
are there any Tory posters on pb.com who think that such interventions help the party’s cause?
Somewhat bizarrely for once, neither do I.
Whether he means it or not (I hold the fear that DC does believe
his Lib/Con agenda, rather than prentends to) DC has been making some solid, party unifying, right of centre pronouncements in recent days that are (clearly) having some effect in the Polls.
Being of that ilk, I would hope that if this trend is continued and the penny drops at CCHQ that it is resonating with the public we might then tack our policies to the right to meet demand.
Setting aside whether he should have made them at all, depending on which side of the loyalty vs principle fence you stand, the ‘right’ time to have made them for maximum effect would surely have been
to have chipped in behindat Brady at the time of the Grammar school fiasco.
As it transpires, he’s now criticising DC for not doing something at precisely the moment he seems to be moving in that direction.
The timing is odd/curious to say the least.
Can you, Jamie? It looks to me as though it has been suspended. I wonder why…
all uk political markets are SUSPENDED on betfair ?
49. Baskerville. Agreed. I was confused upthread when Mike referred to Cameron’s core vote strategy. His strategy is clearly to go for the centre ground.
Because his “detoxification programme” has been reasonably successful he is also able to comment on law and order issues and immigration without this being a “lurch to the right”. It’s ridiculous to argue that he cannot even refer to these issues. His tone is measured and these issues matter to the electorate, including the all important centre ground and his core vote. I think strategically he’s on the money.
52. Are the GE markets changing to “in play ” ?
54 - well, Labour are currently doing the “lurch” thing but it’s not really resonating too much.
Cameron does seem to be one of a handful of Tories that actually understands a good image is all important these days.
Morning all
Re: 3 - Punter, my view at present is that the LDs will lose seats next time. The greater losses will be to the Conservatives (no surprise there) but we may slip one or two back to Labour which won’t be good for either us or the Tories.
If you had to pin me down to a seat number today, I’d say look at a spread of 38-41. Yes, that’s 20 seats down but that’s if we were polling today. A good campaign can make a lot of difference and if, as I’ve always believed, we’re in for a long haul (2010 ?) it’s much harder to predict what will happen.
We agonise on here over fluctuations of between 1-2% in polls as though our lives depend on it but they aren’t that important.
We will have huge volatility during the Conference season (which I shall miss mercifully). As the more thoughtful on here have asserted, the post-Blair political landscape is still taking shape and it may be another 6-9 months before we see stability, let alone clarity.
The words of Corporal Jones, or was it the Hitchhiker’s Guide to the Galaxy, seem appropriate at present
54 stjohn - Thanks for highlighting Caveman’s find of 12-1 on a 2010 GE with Ladbrokes, I was surprised it was still there this morning - surely exceptional value.
58. Your welcome Peter. Villa 2 Chelsea 0 !
36 You need to tighthen up on that wording tjm..
“Gay relationships” clearly don’t equal ” straight marriage”
If you are arguing that “same sex civil partnerships” are equal to “straight marraige” its at least a contentious debating point.
Why the pro lobby regard it as being equal should ask the Govt why they baulked from introducing outright “same sex marraige” at the time and settled at the half way shop of “Civil partnerships”
Clearly its unfinished business on their part and equally as clearly the only reason they did baulk was that they knew it would prove to be extremely contentious and dangerous politically.
That ‘risk’ still exists today.
There are significant groups of traditionally labour voting people
( Islamists, Black African Christians, (particularly Irish Catholics) who still find same sex issues anathema.
****BREAKING WIND NEWS **** BREAKING WIND NEWS **** BREAKING WIND NEWS
The breaking news is that WIND is reporting to JNN the contents of a fresh ARSE poll of polls comprising ICM, YouGov, Populus, MORI and CR that gives :
Con 35.4% .. Lab 38.2% .. LibDem 16.4% .. Others 10%
The PISSED Wells/Baxter Index with added SOAMES weighting gives :
Con 234 seats .. Lab 340 .. LibDem 46 .. Others 30.
Labour majority 30.
……………………
Sources :
WIND …. Whimsical Independent News Division
JNN ….. Jacobite News Network
ARSE …. Anonymous Random Selection of Electors
PISSED .. Political Intelligence Seat Selector Election Determinator
SOAMES .. System Of Amending Measured Election Scores
52. What do we make of the Betfair uk political markets being suspended? There has been a rumour of some sort of political announcement by Brown today hasn’t there?
62. Maybe he is going to cancel GE’s in future - the people can speak via communicate research
59 Quite so, stjohn, impressive start by the Villa, but not quite as profitable as my sell of Derby points on Spreadfair at 33.4, currently around 27.4 and before you ask, no, I don’t feel any shame!
Go on Gordon. Do it!
The Bonar-Law family will be eternally grateful!
62 - general site problems.
54. Portillo now on BBC News 24 making the points I just made above. Clearly he’s an avid PB.com reader.
60 Tory Boy. I think the government “baulked” at same sex marriage because they felt that a two step approach was more long term politically acceptable.
As it happened and apart from the usual conservative opponents civil partnerships appear to have become more readily accepted than Labour at first beleived would be possible, the more so as Cameron has largely nullified the issue within the Conservative party.
66. Right. Thanks. Up and running again
60 - I think you do us Irish Catholics quite a disservice in suggesting we “still find same sex issues anathema”. The most recent polling (from Ireland) suggests otherwise and the Taoiseach has committed to legislating for same-sex partnerships in the Republic at the earliest possible date in the lifetime of this government (I think it was in every party’s manifesto in one form or another).
Brown’s record of competence can be questioned particularly over Tax Credits and the additional complexities of the present Income Tax regime. He has been great at job creation for tax accountants.
Can tube commuters in London be impressed with Brown after the collapse of Metronet and the current underground workers’ strike, given that the tube staff appear to be after assurances on pensions and pay (funded by the taxpayers and tube users)?
As for Brown’s ‘recruitment of Bercow and Mercer as ‘advisers’, it can be spun as the widening of the base of the government, or it is a tacit admission that the pool of political talent on the Labour benches is too thin - or that GB is short of politcal loyalists.
Given that the SNP appear to be making mischief in Scotland, and appear to be ahead in the polls up their would Brown move for a general election? Labour’s position in the UK has relied heavily on hoovering up the votes and seats in Scotland, Salmond and the SNP threaten this hegemony.
Cameron still seems to be incapable of landing telling blows on Brown’s incompetence as Chancellor and NuLab ’strategist’. Osborne’s meek acceptance of the Brown/Darling spending plans may provide continuity but where is the incentive to vote for the Tories? Perhaps DC needs to do more to highlight the divisions of the Lib Dems over the role of the state, attitudes to enterprise, and tax. Politics is about getting power and holding on to it, and it means undermining your political opponents and going on to the attack on their fitness to govern. Blair and Brown understand this, but do the Tories?
Am I the only tory who wants to hit ancram with a big stick this morning? He is rapidly turning into a liability.
67. That explains a good deal.
Brown should disregard these polls, he should not be put off calling for a GE in October. Brown needs a mandate, to go into the winter without a GE to establish his premiership, would be foolish in the extreme.
p.s. I’ve checked with Jim Davidson’s agent, Jim is available for the Tory Party Conference, being a bankrupt, he’s grateful for any work you can throw his way.
74. Is he not too busy on Hells Kitchen (Davidson not Brown)…
Re 54, StJohn, I agree. It would be a bit like Labour never bein able to talk about the NHS in the run up to the 1997 election!
These issues are important but it is vital that they are not seen as the only thinh we care about.
65 Bob S. Why the Bonar Law family ??
57 Thanks Stodge. But where would you slip up against Labour. Outside Brent Central can’t think of any stand out obvious ones. Leech has the sort of intellectual seat LDs seem to find easy to embed themselves in. As I mentioned if you had to target so will te ories and PPC in places like Norwich South will probably be able to count on little outside help so surely you will be looking to squeeze them in places like that even as they squeeze you in places like Crawley
69 Must have been a very nervous few minutes for you stjohn when Betfair’s political markets went down just now. I’m sure you and PtP have now won your bet on there not being a 2007 GE but it’s been a lttle uncomfortable, particularly when the odds halved at the weekend.
41. “You don’t stay Chancellor for 10 years for nothing.” - No, you need a team of loyalist briefers and a cowardly Prime Minister to do that
I do enjoy our discussions Redflump - you’re a good sport!
I feel like some crystal ball-gazing.
If there were an election tomorrow, what would happen?
My guess:
Scotland - Labour lose 10 seats to SNP, Lib Dems lose 2 to SNP
England - Labour lose 28 seats to Conservatives
- Lib Dems lose 6 to Labour and 8 to Conservatives
Wales - Labour lose 4 seats to Conservatives
Boundary Changes - Labour lose 10, Conservatives gain 10
New Standings - Labour 310 - Conservative 247 - Lib Dems - 46 etc.
Shoot me down boys!!!
72 - Not alone. I’ll hold him while you hit him….
He seems to blithely ignore that he was at the heart of the party when it made itself unelectable. On your watch, matey… No point in a political party having a “soul” if it can’t exercise its raison d’etre - to wield political power.
(And he may not like civil partnerships, but they are here to stay. He sounds about as relevant as railing against “those blasted internal combustion engines…” )
Please, all has-been memebers of the Conservative Party - unless you have something to say to help regain power, then just STFU. Or go and join the Liberal Party, if you hanker after purity of political thought in a power-free setting.
79. Yes Peter. These latest polls have been very welcome. Fingernails starting to grow again.
Ancram, that noble lord, seems to be trying to get himself into the limelight again. Like many of the dinosaurs he resents the fact that his time has passed, the cosy world he once inhabited is being dismantled by the overdue party reforms, and like Heath does not care a jot how he does it, shows no loyalty to his party and presents witter as wisdom.
The evidence is in the Telegraph today where he says the party must return to its basic values and then lists these as,
We believe in people, in their individual freedom and right to choose; we believe in promoting aspiration and merit; we believe in the smaller state, in value for taxpayers’ money and in being the “good neighbour”; we believe in the family; in protecting and conserving our environment; and above all in the resolute defence of our sovereignty and our realm.”
In the “Built to Last” paper that Dave put out and the party approved the only ‘principle” that is anyway different to Ancram’s list is the last with its Eurosceptic spin.
Ancram wants out of Europe and under the slogan “stop bashing the Thatcherite past” he is going against her policy of staying in Europe and sorting it out.
So he is just another one abusing the Thatcher legacy for his own vanity.
Like Kalms and Saatchi and other dinsaurs of that generation he wants to turn the clock back to the ‘good old days’. They see the meteor that struck their world in 1997 as a mere pebble rather than the enormous boulder that it was which created this new less certain world.
Their bellows of distress are sad to hear but their dreadful and fateful end and the noise of their passing should not distract us from seeing the new lithe and dynamic Tory party successfully building its new home in the changed environment.
Hooray !
http://www.24dash.com/news/57/27038/index.htm
Brown’s ‘honeymoon’ is over say pollsBack to Central Government
Publisher: Jon “Jonathan” Land
Published: 04/09/2007 - 08:46:42 AM Printable version
Gordon Brown’s ‘honeymoon’ is
over say polls Prime Minister Gordon Brown will face the media today in the wake of a series of polls suggesting his political honeymoon may be drawing to an end.
Three successive opinion polls this week have suggested that Labour is now virtually level-pegging with the Conservatives, after a summer in which the so-called “Brown bounce” put the party as many as nine or 10 points ahead.
The latest survey, for today’s Times, found Labour’s support down two points on a similar poll five weeks ago on 37%, just one point ahead of the Tories on 36% (up three).
The real significance in this, IMO, is that David Cameron is not exactly an attractive alternative. It means that the electorate are slowly waking up to the fact that the miracle economy wasn’t.
And as for Michael Ancram,he would be best employed sticking to doing cover versions of Bob Dylan acoustic songs.
Sounds like he is a tree hugger at heart.
72, 81, Indeed. Ancram was grossly over-promoted when he was made a Parliamentary Under Secretary at the Scottish Office. Nothing in his subsequent career has undermined that proposition.
80 - if held now, LibDems lose 18 not 8 to Conservatives. In a “Presidential” style election campaign of Cameron v. Brown, LD’s get squeezed out and under Ming areunable to answer the question “what exactly do you do?”
Plus with three weeks under the spotlight, Brown either has to hide alot amongst school children or else expose himself to everybody watching him, transfixed by the wobbly jaw, but not hearing a word he says. He really needs extensive coaching work in public arenas. And he needs hypnosis or something to get over that trait. Far, far more distracting than Ian Duncan Smith’s cough. But both down to the nervousnous that comes from feeling deeply exposed in the public glare.
OT. Not a strictly political bet, but for any religious punters the 7/2 Paddy Power offer (under Current Affairs) for Vincent Nichols to be next Archbishop of Westminster in a years time might be of interest folowing todays Times article.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/faith/article2381588.ece
Likewise Casino!
Perhaps Tony should have moved Gordon to the FO in 2005? He wouldn’t DARE though - Tony knew that Gordon saved Labour’s bacon in 2005.
I won’t comment on your predictions - but I will say that I think Labour may actually *gain* some of the ultra marginal seats away from the Tories (like Shipley).
77 - Andrew Bonar Law was the shortest serving PM, October 1922 to May 1923, a record Gordon might break if he calls an election.
71
‘Can tube commuters in London be impressed with Brown after the collapse of Metronet and the current underground workers’ strike, given that the tube staff appear to be after assurances on pensions and pay (funded by the taxpayers and tube users)?’
At present the Metronet collapse has been swept under the carpet,but can’t stay there for long as someone has to pick up the bill of £ 4.5 billion,as it was one of Brown’s beloved PPP’s it will be the taxpayer paying this massive new bill.
On the public sector pensions issue,people in the private sector are increasingly questioning why they should have to pay for two pensions,their own & one for public sector employees.
stjohn - re my post 64, I expect Derby to assemble a maximum of 20 points this season and probably less. IMO therefore a sell at 27.4 points still offers considerable value. Next game - Newcastle at home!
86 - “expose himself” - mmm, doesn’ read how I intended! Not that anyone would notice - all they’d see is the jaw….
I wonder what Ankram’s old friend Matthew Parris thinks of his recent pronouncements, especially those on civil partnerships. In his memoirs Parris likened him to a pit canary: ‘As long as such coves [as Ankram] can still breathe in the shadow Cabinet, the old party remains inhabitable by humans.’ Now Ankram is foaming at the mouth and sounding off like some demented old right-wing colonel. Peculiar.
83 - “Their bellows of distress are sad to hear but their dreadful and fateful end and the noise of their passing should not distract us from seeing the new lithe and dynamic Tory party successfully building its new home in the changed environment.”
It will take a while for the Ancram attitude to fully die off, if it ever will.
IMO the Tories are in the middle of a generational change which is irreversable now (although delayed for a few years) and it’ll be quite a painful transition. But the likes of Ancram should enjoy their last moments in the proverbial sun (and for a while most certainly take that opportunity)
89 Ralph. George Canning has the shortest tenure as PM - 119 days, from 10th April - 8th August 1827.
Bonar-Law is number three behind Lord Goderich.
74
Jim will scrub kitchens, wait at tables anything, the poor guys desperate, he must be to go on Hell’s Kitchen.
He’ll even rub out Ancram, as long as you provide the gun.
[5] Are there any in your party that you actually LIKE Marcus???
The 13th Marquis of Lothian is a deeply Catholic High Tory of the old school (in his case, unsurprisingly, Ampleforth). Like many others of his stripe, it does seem that he harbours considerable doubts as to the direction of Cameron’s Conservatives…
He is old fashioned, but with many old fashioned virtues: decency, a sense of fair play, and even a sense of duty and honour. Sure he is socially conservative, but when one disagrees with him- as I do on many issues- at least his political opponents recognise a man of strong and honest convictions- his friends apparantly do not…
GO ON BORIS !!!
Neck and neck for the Mayor of London (8078 votes cast to date)
View pollQuestion
Who should become the next Mayor of London?
Results
Ken Livingstone( 2258 )
27%
Boris Johnson( 2242 )
27%
Lembit Opik ( 80 )
0%
John Bird( 627 )
7%
Sian Berry( 1172 )
14%
James Whale ( 83 )
1%
None of the above( 210 )
2%
Who cares? ( 1211 )
14%
Total votes: 8078
93 This profile in BBC from 2001 presents an entirely different picture of the Marquess of Lothian. Wonder what changed him from a mildly eurosceptic, affable, “trustworthy, loyal and safe frontline operator” into a Cornerstone lookalike?
Has his Roman Catholicism become stronger re Civil Relationships? Why has a Wet become a Dry?
http://tinyurl.com/2gbuns
98 Context? Is this anything other than a meaningless internet poll?
James Whale? God help us all.
100.
No it isn’t a meaningless internet poll.
The website is 24dash.com (Social Housing etc. etc.)
Just the site that I would expect to be supporting NuLabour.
Perhaps Ken’s reign of terror as Mayor of London is drawing to a close.
97/99 Cicero/Ted. Indeed. The party has moved away from Ancram rather than the other way round.
And whilst I disagree with Ancram on civil partnerships, I certainly do not share John O description @ 85. But then John O has a penchant for Conservative Prime Ministers who do a decent line in adultery, mega hypocracy, grey Y fronts and warm beer swilling cycling midwives !!
101 - No idea who he is - surely he’s better than Lembit though (and not just because he polled more votes)?
In my day (1993-94) people like Ancram were escorted to the rear echelons and shot.
What purpose does he think his inane interventions serve? It’s not like he’s said anything startlingly new or insightful - we all know there is a corps of lamebrain Tories which wants to bring back the lash for sodomy.
The only possible reason for his bleating is that he just wanted to sound off. He could come here and do that anonymously, with the rest of us, if he cares that much - and it wouldn’t damage his party.
Michael Ancram. Decent cove, very odd sense of timing. Thankfully no one gives a fig what he says.
104 - James Whales is one of those mega-igoed shock jocks. He makes Richard Littlejohn (gag!) sound like Polly Toynbee at times. You know the drill - persecuted motorists, taxpayers revolt etc etc.
106 - So pretty much on a par with Lembit then
(Must be why they’ve polled such similar numbers!)
Ancram’s metamorphosis into a dissenting hardline right winger is very odd given his previous image as something of a loyalist, and his class background. The only explanation appears to be attention seeking - weird, really.
70 Neil.
No offence intended, I only speak as I find on the doorstep. It’s clearly NOT a universal statement of fact, nor too is that all ‘Irish’ or ‘Catholics’ vote Labour.
I have though seen more than just a handful of (mainly elderly)
Irish Catholics switch in my own Ward (on the back of CP’s)
105
Bringing back the lash for sodomy.
You mean the state would do for free, what some people pay good money for, there could be votes in that.
105. I’d just like to post my total and profound objections to the ridiculous sentiments expressed in post 105, written by me.
I’ve just now actually read Ancram’s article in the Telegraph. His position has been spun. He’s just trotting out the standard patriotic, family-oriented line of traditional Tories - nothing revolutionary. And he’s very sound on Europe.
That Michael Ancram: he’s a decent bloke. Good to hear his voice. SeanT on the other hand doesn’t have a clue what he’s on about. Cornish sex memoirists. What do they know? Cuh.
88. Mr. Redflump - yes, in the north, you may be right. We might lose 2-5 seats, but I’d be very surprised if it’s more.
Why not comment on my predictions? Unlike Mr. Palmer, you aren’t an MP and you are free to state your views! Go on.. humour me.
86. Marquee: Yes, but I think that where the Lib Dems *hold* seats, you have to view them more as a ‘local residents association’ than a national political party. Where they have sitting MPs that’s how they operate and that’s how the local voters tend to view them. And the longer they’ve held the seat, the harder it is to move them. The evidence bears this out too. Sitting Lib Dem MPs are - to a degree - immune from national political trends.
What will happen is, where they’re 2nd/3rd challengers, they will fall back sharply, and I think their “ex-Labour” seats gained in 2005 will be more vulnerable than their “ex-Tory” seats gained in 1997.
Nonetheless, they will lose some. But I’d be very surprised if we picked up more than 10 from them. I can’t see them dropping below 40 MPs even if they perform atrociously and I think 45 is a more realistic bottom line.
105 seant - Could you pop round to lend Mike your laptop - the poor deprived thing is having to seek out internet cafes.
re 60 I never stop asking it. The gay lobby sold out equality for this second best civil partnerships idea when it should have told the government it wanted a gender neutral marriage act - you either get married or stay single whatever sex. And as for the Muslims, Irish catholics not liking it well tough. Some Muslims subjugate women is that a reason for repealing the sex discrimination act?
95 - I stand corrected.
89 rubbish - there have been plenty shorter.
70. “I think you do us Irish Catholics quite a disservice in suggesting we “still find same sex issues anathema”. The most recent polling (from Ireland) suggests otherwise and the Taoiseach has committed to legislating for same-sex partnerships in the Republic at the earliest possible date in the lifetime of this government (I think it was in every party’s manifesto in one form or another)”
Neil, is Sinn Fein generally supportive of civil partnerships and co just because DUP oppose them and so they have to do the opposite?
115/95 - as do I.
But it won’t stop me reminding people that GB could become “a tragic Bonar-Law figure” should he call an early poll. It cheers me up to keep thinking this.
112 - “you have to view them more as a ‘local residents association’ than a national political party. Where they have sitting MPs that’s how they operate and that’s how the local voters tend to view them. And the longer they’ve held the seat, the harder it is to move them.”
Oh I dunno - I helped turn Newbury back to being Conservative in 2005, after Rendell had held it for 12 years!
Voting LibDem is a fad. People tire of it….
111 - reading a few other places, Ancram is getting a right pasting for his timing and to a lesser extent his views. Even ConIDS (bar the usual “Cameron out” brigade) is joining in. A definite shift from even 2/3 months ago
I haven’t read the Telegraph today but surely it might make other Tories realise that they’re going to be slaughtered now if they speak out. Especially when the DT is embarking on an anti-Cameron platform
..and that GB himself will be tortured by this too…
80. “Scotland - Labour lose 10 seats to SNP”
Extremely unlikely IMO…they would need to gain seats where they’re over 30% behind or seats where they are in third place to reach 10 gains from Lab
113. I would, but I’m still in Blighty. Off to Biarritz tomorrow morning. Barkatu!
111 I might agree with everything Ancram wrote and would still think he’s joined the Stupid Tory Tendency. What was his purpose - Cameron isn’t going to wake up and say Gosh the old cove is right, lets take the Ancram prescription, I’ll bring him back as Party Chairman!
He’s an ex-Chairman. He saw the damage done post 2001.
111. I was kinda joking. I think Ancram’s views are fairly sound, and he’s certainly right on Europe. But he’s meant to be a clever guy so he must have known how his vapourings would come across right now - as criticism of the leadership.
Daft and pointless. Can’t see why he did it, apart from narcissism. Nul points.
Luckily, as I said, no one really noticed. Apart from us wonks.
“33 Spot on - Blair was grudgingly respected by Tory voters, whereas Brown is despised by them”
Entirely the reverse, in the case of this Tory voter.
I agree with Tory Boy that this is a curious time for Michael Ancram to criticise Cameron. Had he made these comments a few months ago, they would have been a good deal more valid. Now that Cameron is actually addressing the things that concern both Conservatives and centrist voters, he should be applauded for it.
That’s a very fair comment, Cicero.
Back to the betting.
Am I the only one who thinks that the Betfair prices currently overstate the likelihood of Labour being the biggest party?
With the Tories @ 2.4 and Labour @ 1.64 a pound on the Tories being the biggest party gets you £1.40, every pound on Labour gets you 64p.
The risk-adjusted reward is still out of whack there surely when the polls have them so close.
117 - Sinn Féin are quite radical so their progressive policies in this area are based on their principles - that it is the opposite of what the DUP stands for is probably a bonus. Sinn Féin supported a private member’s bill calling for civil unions and called for gay marriage in their manifesto. (Though gay marriage is probably unconstitutional so gay partnerships is the likely outcome to avoid the need for a referendum on the issue.)
98 - it’s frustrating that though Lembit Öpik has declined weeks ago, he’s name is still offered as an option in the Mayor polls.
124 - “He saw the damage done post 2001″.
What must really be frustrating for the Tories apart from the timing and selfishness of these attacks is this : it wouldn’t be so bad if those doing the attacking were election winners.
But people like Ancram etc presided over the worst period of recent Tory history. They were responsible for half the mess the current regime spent a good 18 months (and still continue to do so) trying to rectify.
Worse, I get the impression that they genuinely don’t think they did anything wrong in that period. It was always Blair/media/the public to blame, not them.
117 It’s probably a case of positioning. When fundraising in Irish America in the past, Sinn Fein often portrayed themselves as a bourgeois nationalist party. These days, they are firmly on the Left. As the Irish Left is such a small pool, I think it’s probably a tactical error on their part.
114. I disagree, the names of things don’t really matter as long as the same rights are there in law and in practice.
That being said, I suggested on here a while a go that civil partnerships should be extended to heterosexual couples, recognise only civil partnerships allow marriage to be a religious bond handed out by religious organisations since that’s where its roots are. I got shouted down for it at the time but I still think it would work. It would reinforce marriage as a religious thing before God for religious people and keep secular hands off it. It would allow gay and straight people to be treated equally in the hands of the state. It would encourage artsy liberal types who like to rebel against tradition by not getting married to enter into a stable structure for their children. And it would maintain the legal family as the best basis for society.
That was garbled. “civil partnerships should be extended to heterosexual couples, the state should recognise only civil partnerships, and it should allow marriage to be a religious bond handed out by religious organisations since that’s where its roots are.”
127 - “polls close” does not equal “parties close in seats”
I should also point out that it would become natural for most people to get married and have a civil partnership at the same time. The marriage is the personal/emotional/religious bond and commitment, the civil partnership is a legal state of affairs.
128.”Sinn Féin are quite radical so their progressive policies in this area are based on their principles - that it is the opposite of what the DUP stands for is probably a bonus. Sinn Féin supported a private member’s bill calling for civil unions and called for gay marriage in their manifesto. ”
In NI Assembly Manifesto they proposed financial penalties for elected representative who use homophobic language.
I suppose it can be considered a new tax
119. Oh I dunno - I helped turn Newbury back to being Conservative in 2005, after Rendell had held it for 12 years!
Mark, you’re right - that was a great result - but remember than Richard Beynon had fought the seat 3 times in a row and gradually built up support over a number of years. He played a looong game.
122. Andrea - Exactly. I think that is entirely plausible. SNP are miles ahead in Scotland and I think there will be a real shock on GE night - Scots will rally round them as the principle opposition party to defeat Labour.
131 - Sinn Féin activists tend to be very left-wing though long-term there may be a tension between that and the nationalist strand. It is possible that they could either turn into Fianna Fáil (ie drop core principles and turn to populism in order to make electoral progress) or else stagnate as at the same level of electoral support as previous left-of-Labour parties (including, ironically, official Sinn Féin / the Workers Party / Democratic Left).
136 - Now that was specifically aimed at Ian Paisley Jnr! It could be called the Ian Paisley Jnr tax.
137 In many of those indivvidual seats though, it would make more snse to rally the 2nd party to get Labour beaten
137. “Exactly. I think that is entirely plausible. SNP are miles ahead in Scotland and I think there will be a real shock on GE night ”
Evidence? The last yougov poll I see on Scotland had them with a small lead for Holyrood and trailing Labour for Westminster
138 Many Irish nationalists are right wing though. Don’t you think that by identifying so closely with the political Left,