Is a switch to UKIP behind the Tory decline?
September 20th, 2007-
Is Cameron finally losing his right wing?
The above is part of the detailed data from yesterday’s ICM poll in the Guardian and has figures which should be deeply worrying for the Tory leadership.
The section I reproduce shows the current voting intentions of those who said they voted for the three main parties in 2005 and the figure that stands out is the proportion of 2005 Tory voters who now say they will switch to UKIP. From a quick scan through the records this is the highest this has been.
Until now there’ve been lots of threats on CONhome and from writers like Simon Heffer of a desertion of traditional Tory voters to UKIP and this simply has not been shown in the polling data - that is until this latest survey.
Normally the number of Tory>UKIP switchers has been at 1% or even less. This figure is quite startling.
Mike Smithson
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I don’t really think we can make a conclusion based on the voting preferences of 7 voters.
1. quite.
[from previous thread]
I did a big post all full of long words and elaborate similes about the future of British politics and it got somehow lost. Knobs! Big knobs!
Big hairy knobs!
So instead I shall try and sum it up in less poetic style.
If GB calls an autumn GE and wins a decent or even a larger majority, what do people think will be the result for the Tories?
It’s fascinating to speculate, on a purely sadistic-voyeuristic level.
I think the Tories could actually collapse. What is the point in them as a party? On major “rightwing” issues like tax, immigration, identity, defense, they are identical to Labour. On some of these issues they are to the left of Labour. Only Europe diffrentiates them, and that doesn’t exercise the British people (sadly).
So if the Tories get beat bad again - with a charming young intelligent likeable leader - they must surely start wondering: what more can they do?
They could, I suppose, hope for a major decline in the British economy, but even then the public may prefer to rely on Brown to get them out of trouble.
Alternatively they could hope that GB brings in some kind of alternative voting, or that the Scots go independent - screwing Labour in England - but these are long shots.
So we may be witnessing the end of the Conservative party as we know it. Which is not surprising, as the Labour party has slowly metamorphosised into the Tory party, leaving no room for the old version.
Why vote for Tories that lose (the Tories) when you can vote for Tories that win (Labour)?
by seanT September 20th, 2007 at 6:14 pm
surely the sample is to small to draw conclusions from?
3. fascinating. All advanced industrial democracies have a signifigant right of centre party. Are you now saying that its Labour?
The Tories will be pleased that Ming looks safe.
Brown’s vile legacy: even the poll for the Blue Peter cat is faked! Deception and cynicism wherever you turn; our children betrayed; innocence lost. Welcome to Britain under Labour…
Tories will eventually twig that FPTP doesn’t suit them (esp with UKIP around). STV guys, and you might form a Govt. with the Orange Bookers!
I’d agree that the sample would be too small. Also, even if people want to vote UKIP, if there’s no candidate standing, they’ll probably default to Conservative (if they were hoping to desert). Any ideas on how many candidates UKIP look likely to be fielding?
It’s interesting that virtually no-one seems to be switching from Tory to Labour or vice versa, rather people are moving from LD to Lab (and vice versa) and LD to Con and Con to UKIP.
It’s also interesting that although I assume that LD voters are “returning” to labour, a fair few 2005 Labour voters have also switched to the LDs so that it’s the Tories that seem to be getting a gain from the LDs in this poll.
Finally, got to say I think Ming did well today, seems to have got a pretty postitive response from the journo’s too.
5. Yes, that’s what I’m saying, basically.
I was watching Newsnight last night and they were talking about immigration. There was a Labour minister demolishing the Lib Dem amnesty idea and saying: all immigrants must learn English, integrate better, respect our laws, we are bringing in a points system to control the flow, a border police, and we will throw out all illegals.
It was very tough sounding - and it occurred to me that no Tory could be to the right of this without sounding racist.
Of course you could argue, correctly, that Labour is all talk - they sound tough but in reality their immigration policy is pitifully porous and laughably lax - but the fact is the perception is all important: and the perception is that Labour are now pretty right wing on so many issues there is no room for the Tories as a rightwing party.
Where can they go now? Green issues don’t cut it.
English nationalism is one long term possibility. Means the break up - or Federalisation - of the UK though. Tough for the Unionist party.
mike your articles seem to be getting more bizarre by the day. 7 switches to UKIP? I’m the most fervent of Labour supporters but this is truly ridiculous
The statistics are unreliable at that sample size. If it were reliable then the move from LD o Conservative is more important as it shows Cameron’s strategy is working: remember the instant web site of ‘Liberals for Cameron’?
Any move to UKIP usually shows Tories in a huff.
But….. 7 is far too small a number to make conclusions as is the 10 of LDs to Tories.
3 SeanT - And I answered thus….
268 SeanT
You have my sympathy. I have learned to copy all posts longer than three words before hitting the submit button. You can do so quickly and easily by hitting Ctl A followed by Ctl C. Doesn’t take a moment, and can save a lot of frustration.
End of the Tories? Nah, never. They’ve just got to rediscover what they’re about - governing. They’ll be alright then.
Labour went through the same process. They had to rediscover how they built their popular support. Once they did that and dished the narrow self-serving clique that had infiltrated the party, they were fine. Took time, but they did it.
[I have just copied this post, just in case.]
12 cj - Are you the same cj that was critical of Double Carpet’s articles?
Have you ever tried writing some yourself?
Presumably you think my occasional offerings are crap too - yes? Makes two of us…
It looks like the attrition from Telegraph, Mail, Sun and Times is hitting home. They started out sceptical to Cameron, but have all have feasted on the nasty nuggets contained in the stupidest policy presentations that any party has undertaken.
What sane politician says “here are a lot of ideas for you to pick and grab headlines to make me look foolish”?
Sadly the insane policy process of Letwin has caused tremendous damage. Throw in the disloyal MPs and we have an image in tatters. No one sensible washes their dirty linen in public so why wash our policy ideas in this way?
The papers, have enjoyed a wonderful time and the sensible stuff has mainly been overlooked as it is not headline grabbing.
I am frankly surprised that only 4% have switched to UKIP.
Things can only get better for the Conservatives providing Brown does not call an election this year.
3:
Good point. With New Labour we’ve witnessed the death of politics. I think of it like this: what would happen if they invented a car that was unimprovable and never went wrong? Obviously the motor industry would disappear because no one would ever need a new car. Labour have done that with the British political system. You never need to replace what’s perfect. It’s a shame really because I enjoy the drama of politics - sad that it’s now all a bit pointless. Seriously, to save a lot of time and money why not abolish elections but constitutionally have a referendum every ten years about reinstating them - just as a safety mechanism?
This should be quite encouraging for UKIP but I am looking at the sample size, being so small and wondering whether this one might just
be a rogue poll? After all, you’re only talking about 7 respondents.
I think the samples are too small to draw conclusions from on just one set of figures . Comres and Populus all give a similar comparison of vote in 2005 and voting intention now and taken as a whole they show churn between all parties with LibDems gaining almost as many from Labour as they are losing to them . They do show a small movement from Con to UKIP but not as many as this one particular poll Mike has highlighted .
NR down 28% to-day and still no buyers.
7 - lol, dawning. I did think that was the archetypal British Story. For those who missed it - the producers of Blue Peter didn’t like the name viewers had chosen for their cat (Cookie), so they rigged the poll. To make up for it, they will now acquire a new cat with the ‘correct’ name.
I share the skepticism about analysing the significance of 7 voters, though we should appreciate Mike’s zeal in ferreting out these things. As in previous ICMs, note that Labour is getting many of its gains from others/non-voters last time, and I do think that a chunk of these as well as ex-LDs are anti-war people. Like Tim on the las thread, I think this group very significant in marginals and certainly in mine.
seanT’s question about what happens to the Tories if they lose is of course premature but interesting. I think the Tories would stumble on with a new leader if they kept over 30%, but we could see a name change and perhaps a stab at wild populism - flat tax, EU withdrawal, etc.? Many of the sober careerists who have gone along with Cameron would probably push off after another defeat.
It’s possible, and I wouldn’t put it more strongly than that, that we’re seeing a period of prolonged social democratic dominance of the kind that was common in Scandinavia in the past - with FPTP it’s more feasible, and the Scandinavian social democrat philosophy, roughly ‘pro-free market but helpful to the lower-paid and public services and idealistic abroad’, is a mixture that appeals to a lot of people. The right in Scandinavia has only won by almost completely adopting this position themselves.
This has cheered me up a bit with a sample of 7 people too small to take that seriously. Surely an autumn election has got to be a huge risk for Brown. Removing incumbant Tories will be a tricky task and he’s down 13 from the off.
20. I got in a £2 a share this morning. Rather pleased with that. Lloyds will buy imo.
21 Pride before the fall.
20 NR’s market cap has gone down by nearly £2.5 billion - just in September….
21-I particularly enjoy the strength of some parties on the Danish right. And Norwegian. Is this what NP MP has in mind? Maybe the Conservatives should rename themselves the Progress Party?
In any case, what’s wrong with flat tax and EU withdrawal?
So if the Tories did die, would Labour be in power for the next 50 years? At some point they would have to be thrown out of office, wouldn’t they? Who would form the next non Labour government?
One for all those watching the stock markets: From Wikipedia
Triple witching hour (sometimes referred to as “Freaky Friday”) is the final hour of the stock market trading session on the third Friday of every March, June, September, and December. Those days are the expiry of three kinds of derivatives,
Stock index futures.
Stock index options.
Stock options.
The simultaneous expirations often set off heavy trading of options, futures and the underlying stocks, which can cause large fluctuations or volatility in the value of their underlying stocks.
With the introduction of single stock futures expiring on the same days, triple witching has become quadruple witching
Homlettes Heggs class 1 class 2 class 3. Better heggs better homlettes.
I think Maurinho is hoping to make a contribution to the Gummer Goldmith happiness index…….
Excellent interview with Will Hutton on the banking crisis. Explained it very well to laymen like me. Just a pity as usual John Snow couldn’t help himself from interrupting just as Hutton was making his point
cj - All you seem to do is criticise other’s articles and posts, there are places where you would be more welcome if that’s all you can do.
Regarding positioning, it’s long been my belief that labour is a right wing authoritarian party. In the same way that lobsters allow themselves to be boiled to death if you turn the heat up slowly, labour supporters that are still left have lost any perspective on how the temperature of the party’s politics has changed.
21. ‘As in previous ICMs, note that Labour is getting many of its gains from others/non-voters last time, and I do think that a chunk of these as well as ex-LDs are anti-war people. Like Tim on the las thread, I think this group very significant in marginals and certainly in mine.’
So how many of voters will ‘count’ because most of them are possibly in fairly safe Labour seats already?
30 Perhaps more important ; how many previous non voters will be enthused by Brown to vote next time .
31. They only really add something in pure electoral numbers terms if they are in seats where Labour are at threat or b) where Labour have a chance of a gain.
It’s quite clear where the Conservatives can go. A pro-free market society that localises most services, only intervenes when people threaten to harm others, gradually decreases the size of the public sector, and has a firm but fair rule of law. Drop the nastiness, drop the wackier suggestions and they’re just about there.
29. I want to know why people think authoritarian = right wing. The most authoritarian governments in history have been the far left. Perhaps we will see a political compass type model arriving. The authoritarian free marketeers = UKIP, the authoritarian interventionists = Labour, the liberal interventionists = Lib Dems and the liberal free marketeers = the new Conservatives.
32,
Thought the piece in Ming`s speech regarding Gordon wanted to be like maggie, but not like tony, tony wanted to be like maggie also.
Maggie wanted to be like ronnie, but dave wanted to be like tony but not like maggie, william, duncan, and michael, was very good.
I paraphrase, however it even made me chuckle, don`t know who wrote it.
But ming did well today.
28. If Hutton was able to bring the discussion down to your level Roger, that’s quite an achievement.
34. Quite. These days, authoritarianism very definitely comes from the left wing.
ID cards - Labour idea. Religious hatred bills - Labour and the left. Censorship of pornography - feminists and the left. Compulsory recycling - the left. Bans on hunting - the left.
Policing of speech: PC and the left. Witch hunts of alleged racists - the left. Speed cameras, 90 day detention, bans on demonstrations - the left, the left, the left.
The left want to staple our lips together and wash our brains in bien pensant Daz.
It’s very sad, really. I’ve been reading Beevor’s brilliant book about the Spanish Civil War - it’s full of poignant stuff about the anarcho-syndicalists who once had genuinely libertarian ideals.
The left really did used to believe in freedom. Now they believe in censorship and authoritarianism. Where did all those nice, freedom-loving lefties go?
Dez (35) - I enjoyed that bit too… I think it is funny because it has a lot of the truth behind it. It shows who their various heroes are….
But, seriously, our Tory friends ought to remember that Ming ended by say that he wanted to be like none of them!
Some of the tedious Tory posters ought to bear that in mind before they grind on with their “Ming in a Labour Cabinet” spin…
35. I thought Ming did well. The bit you mention was out of ‘Soap’ a thirty year old American comedy.
37 SeanT
I’d contest that the modern Labour Party is afraid and dismissive of the masses that they once claimed to represent.
TJM - I specifically said authoritarian right wing for labour as opposed to authoritarian left wing which would apply to Mugabe or elements of the BNP.
Parts of the Tory party are afraid and dismissive of the masses the Labour party used to represent as well.
42. Who claims to represent the working class, the underdog and has never stopped saying that the Tories don’t ever represent them?
Labour.
I have it on good authority that there will be a very bad YG poll for the Tories in the Telegraph. Can’t say more.
But like HF I think the only way is up and there are 3 weeks in an election campaign.
Let Gordon go now and see what happens. I remain confident we can take his majority.
We are slowly moving away from democracy anyway - government by bureaucracy, national and supranational, is taking over. Elections are slowly becoming charades as those elected take fewer and fewer real decisions and have less and less scope to alter anything significant.
The British politicians of the 19th century, who were terrified of mob rule, would quite rightly be thrilled. We are going back to government by self-appointed oligarchy without the people having a clue it is happening.
Do you know when the Telegraph is coming out with that very bad You Gov poll for the Tories, Test?
37 Seant ,
I am currently reading Hugh Thomas The Spanish Civil War.
Finding it hard going especially all the differing angles to each competing ideoligies.
The hope for me is though to see the country I have visited on numerous occasions has progressed from 1936.
And I know you might not agree but the EU must have played a significan role in that since the first time I visited in 1974 the progress has been immense.
Getting back to books though found the recent books on the battle for stallingrad and Berlin hard to put down absolutly rivetting.
Do you know chaps my heart really bleeds these poor Tories on here - not.
Rather like beating Wales at Rugby, I can never have too much of seeing Tories uncomfortable; the country is owed for the mess they made in the 80’s
Nope don’t, sorry.
Don’t have figures either. IMO, the present slump is due to the presentation of Gummer-goldsmith. Cameron will talk crime, NHS, referendum during a campaign - not a lurch to the right but a veer slightly to the right - and regain his lead. And if I disappear from PB during an election campaign it will be because I’m fighting it!
44. Don’t worry Test I’ve already warned Mike. From the last thread;
“Mike better prepare an extra couple of squares for Brown when the next poll comes out. The temptation to put Cameron and Osborne out of their misery must be excruciatingly tempting for Brown. It’s hard to know what went wrong for Cameron…………”
.
by Roger September 20th, 2007 at 4:59 pm
Are you going to be a candidate then, Test?
47. I’m guessing the Beevor book on Spain is better. It’s totally absorbing…
But Hugh Thomas is also good - his book on the Conquest of Mexico is admirable. Then again, the material there - sacrificing people by pulling their hearts out and feeding them to drugged-up jaguars etc - is so good you could hardly fail, on a writing basis!
I agree that all Beevor’s books are quite splendid. I read the Berlin book when making my first ever trip to Berlin. It was great. As good as reading Jan Morris’s Venice when in Venice.
I like reading books about places I’m visiting when I’m there. I’m off to Monte caro for a week next week - but I’m struggling to find a good and suitable book about the area to take with.
Any suggestions welcome!
Roger: a week or so ago the bounce had vanished. Now it’s eight points. You want to bet on what happens in two weeks’ time? Let Gordon seek his mandate, he won’t get one.
52. The Count of Monte..no wait wrong place….
Test. It’s only partly to do with Brown. I get a strong sense that Cameron has blown it. I could be wrong and he might recover but at the moment a lot of people have made up their mind and they just don’t seem to think he can cut it.
SeanT. Is that Monte Carlo?
New thread - Has Ming answered his critics?
On the issue of “the death of the Tory party”. It is not dying. On the ground 4.3 of every 10 councillors is now a Conservative. That is double the % of 10 years ago. Conservatives are more electable at a local level than any other party. Which is why the Conservative party has the capacity to bounce back.
The evidence of the past 10yrs is that the Labour party is in decline at the local level. If Brown waits a year or two his base will just get smaller.
47. Yes, that’s precisely what the EU is good at: hooking hybrid regimes to a strong liberal democratic peg. That is what it should stick to doing - spreading democracy and breaking down trade barriers. If the federalists continue to force a superstate on us then it will end up self-destructing and what has been a successful champion of democracy will be no more.
It should also focus on rooting out corruption within European countries. Italy, Spain and Eastern Europe are shambolic in this respect. It could pass some actually wanted laws like making political immunity illegal etc. It could then also sort out corruption in its own procedures, bringing in double entry accounting and making sure the budget it currently has is spent properly. That would be far more beneficial than forcing on us all sorts of silly things like the CFP and CAP.
57. Yes, a couple of bad polls does not signal the death, nor even significant injury for the Conservatives. People will forget the quality of life report when the next government crisis hits. We are not down, let alone out.
53
The drop in Labour’s poll rating took place over the period of the Rhys Jones murder and other shootings that took place at that time. So the drop in Labour support, was in part emotional. At the same time, the Tories fired a broadside, on law and order which got them some favourable headlines.
The important thing was, that Labour despite all of that, did not fall behind, it was either marginally ahead or level. Labour was strong enough to hold on, despite such a bad period. The Conservatives failed to press home their advantage, proving that their vote is softer.
The reason, Cameron and certainly Osborne, have not convinced the public they could do better. Governments lose when the voters start to say, ‘Even the other lot couldn’t do worse than this’ so far they aren’t saying it.
Frankly Ming is right. “The cosy consensus..”
Look at local democracy.. joke. look at local powers.. police? No, NHS? No, Traffic and roads? No, Rates? No, Education? No, Rubbish disposal ? virtually No.
Frankly democracy is dying…and IF the CP could get its act together on devolving power to local…
Nope , I am delusional. The CP has not got any act together on anything. We have central control of everything: an elective dictatorship.
61. But the ‘elected’ are just frontmen. Look at the figures who stand behind Labour, and bankroll them - Paul, Mittal, Drayson, etc. etc.
These are the people who are really in charge. It’s hilarious that ordinary Labour members are still largely deluded enough to believe that they have anything remotely like a ‘Labour government’. There has never been a government more in hock to big business interests - and often murky ones at that - than this one.
59 - I think if you asked the average voter at the moment what our policies are - the would say charging to park at supermarkets and more expensive holidays. When the real policies are announced we won’t get nearly as much coverage. Or that is what I have found on the doorstep today.
It’s simple - Conservatives are eurosceptic, The Conservatives aren’t. UKIP is a centre right, conservative eurosceptic party. Why wouldn’t Tories leave in their droves? Cameron has turned his party into something that the party faithful don’t want and it will cost him dearly.
60 - So the government get blamed for a random shooting but not the economy? Frankly I don’t believe that.
I always think that polls lag two or more weeks behind events and these polls are a reaction to what was happening at the beginning of September.
Mingadindong
37. “These days, authoritarianism very definitely comes from the left wing.
ID cards - Labour idea. Religious hatred bills - Labour and the left. Censorship of pornography - feminists and the left. Compulsory recycling - the left. Bans on hunting - the left.
Policing of speech: PC and the left. Witch hunts of alleged racists - the left. Speed cameras, 90 day detention, bans on demonstrations - the left, the left, the left.”
Those things you have listed have come from the Labour government, not from the left.
ICM are ignoring the BNP which poll higher than UKIP in recent elections and which pull support away from labour. very odd. I don’t find ICM credible.