In search of the so-called “Gordon Conservatives”
September 24th, 2007
Is there any evidence that Tory voters are switching?
Labour party spinners are putting it about that a new type of voter is emerging that they are calling “Gordon Conservatives”. These are people, it is claimed, who voted Tory last time but have now decided to go with Labour.
According to Ben Brogan over the weekend Labour research has started to identify this group. Because this is coming from private polls we cannot see the data but from my research from publicly available polling sources this is a load of tosh.
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For in spite of Labour’s soaring poll leads the evidence is that Brown’s party has been losing more 2005 Labour voters to the Tories than it has been gaining.
Having gone through every survey from both ICM and Populus since Brown became PM I have not found a single poll where the number of 2005 Tory voters who said they were now voting Labour was greater than Labour 2005 voters who were going the other way.
Thus in the September Guardian poll ICM found just two people who said they would vote Labour last time who had voted for Michael Howard’s Tories in 2005. That compares with four 2005 Labour voters who told they pollster that they were now voting Tory.
It’s the same picture with Populus which in its last poll found just three 2005 Tory voters who were switching to Labour. That compared with a staggering 21 2005 Labour voters who now say they would vote for Cameron’s party.
So how come Labour has taken a significant lead? The answer is that Gordon’s Labour is retaining a much higher proportion of Labour voters than Blair was and there has been a lot of switching from Lib Dems. Also Labour is picking up significant support from people who, for whatever reason, did not vote in 2005.
Mike Smithson
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I’ve met unhappy Conservatives but no “Gordon Conservatives”. Unhappy Conservatives will abstain or vote UKIP, or BNP, but hardly any will vote Labour.
I agree - not many people have changed their minds - Gordon just inspires more lefties to say they’d get off the sofa to vote than Tone did.
Spot on Mike. These ‘people’ are an invention of the Labour spin machine, designed to try to stir up dissension among the Tories. Interesting how parts of the media, including the Telegrpah, have been happy to be fed this line though.
And isn’t it true that those who didn’t vote in 2005 are less likely to vote now?
I’ve been convinced all summer that the Brown Bounce was just a hardening of the Labour vote as lefties came back to the fold from the LDs or abstention post-Blair, whilst grumbling Tories just sat on their hands but would probably come back to the fold at a GE.
If only he’d go to the country on 25th Oct/1st Nov, we’d quickly find out…
1 - is it possible, though, that Brown’s rightward shuffle will increase the number of abstentions/UKIP defectors, just because of the different light it shows Cameron in?
From last thread :
As one of the very few non-British on this board, I would like to confirm what SeanT said: most of Brown’s speech would be considered VERY right-wing in France and in most continental european countries.
Only Le Pen in France dares to use crass racist mottos such as “French jobs for French workers”…
I’m not sure you can actually answer the question from the polls - which report aggregates, not what individuals do, unless there are polls which actually track individual voters voting intentions over time(?). In a previous life I used to measure market shares - which looked relatively stable - but once we started tracking individual consumers we found they moved all over the place. It was just the averages which tended to flatten this out. So while the poll aggregates may tell you that ‘on average’ there are not many ‘Gordon Conservatives’ I’m not sure that they can tell you that they are not there.
Any sign of any Tory riposte to the speech, other than Mark Francois’s rantings about the EU treaty (the only Tory reaction quoted by the Beeb thusfar)?
Where’s Dave? Where’s his ready-prepared soundbite response?
Surely Labour pre-1997 would have had some withering put down by Blair ready to roll by now?
Chris from Paris. You haven’t got a biggest circulation daily ( the Sun) arguing that the proposed EU treaty amendment is an ‘equal danger’ to the UK as the Nazis in 1940!
it all depends on who borwn wants to attract - if its authoritarian superstaters then he has a chance - if it’s overburdened striving families then it won’t work.
at what point will Labour’s core vote start making a fuss? at the point they realise Brown’s scary far right language is putting people off. It might be because it is Labour talking about bashing immigrants, blaming them for every crime committed etc he will get away with it but he’s welcome to Farage Conservatives - I would rather we pursued a Freedom agenda - not only is it more optimistic I think there’s more votes in it.
If there were any “Gordon Conservatives” they probably believed that Brown was more honest than Blair. By being so shameless about going after Tory voters Brown will have convinced them that they were mistaken.
9: The response has to be right not fast.
I know people who voted Tory in 2005 and 2001 who would vote Labour now. They live in the North and think Cameron is a wanker the same as they thought Blair was a wanker. Unlike most of the sad sacks who spend all day on here, they aren’t obsessed about politics or the Westminster village guff that trundles on day after day but affects the lives of almost nobody. They think Brown is solid and Cameron is a posh flake.
kingbongo - please quote the part of Brown’s speech where he ‘bashed immigrants’. I want to read the precise words.
‘at what point will Labour’s core vote start making a fuss?’
Enoch Powell was a very popular figure among traditional working class Labour voters. Brown has obviously been doing some reading.
Mike, agreed. It makes you wonder if the figures you point out are a bigger problem for Brown at the polling booth than the headline voting intentions show? Is certainty to vote in the right marginals Brown’s weakness, hence this cry for a new breed of Gordon’s Conservatives? I ask because its maybe the shorter and longer term answer to when a GE might be called.
I genuinely have not seen a warming to Brown from Conservative minded voters among my friends and family. I feel that Brown is shoring support in the area’s he does not need to, just as the Conservatives did in the previous GE.
11.”at what point will Labour’s core vote start making a fuss? at the point they realise Brown’s scary far right language is putting people off.”
Kingbongo, a very valid point! I reached that moment back in 2005 with the Michael Howard campaign. Anyone who followed the more recent Holyrood elections will tell you that it was the negative campaign by Labour that lost them the election. It happened to Howard back in 2005, and the exactly the same model failed Labour in Scotland against the SNP.
Labour spouting tosh? There’s a surprise. Brown is obsessed with ingratiating himself with us on the right to the point where it’s becoming embarrassing. Creepy even - we right wingers are starting to feel like we’re being stalked! He’s clearly aware that, although he’s getting some increased support from the dole wallahs in Scumsdale, Yorks, the wise and intelligent voters in the south are giving him the thumbs down. The problem for Brown is that having spent most of his life dealing with lefties, he has a somewhat unbalanced view of human intelligence. Unlike the Labourites, we conservatives are not so easily fooled by his trickery and deceit.
“Gordon Conservatives” - a take on “Reagan Democrats”, eh? Tories who lend their vote to Labour, because the greatness of their man can overcomes the usual Tory antipathy to the Labour party? After that speech? Who do they think is going to fall for that line?
7 Breathing a sigh of relief on the Rugby now? I’m not surprised the French team choked up and couldn’t perform against Argentina. Whose idea was it to read that Resistance fighter’s letter to them just before the start?!
14 I’m not sure how that word got through the spam filter. I know a fair number of Conservatives who think the same about Cameron, but I don’t know one of them who would be tempted to vote Labour.
14 - Ah yes, the gritty authentic voice of the Whips Office, was it not?
Mike a good article to point this out which uses real knowledge.
It is an indictment of the lazy journalists that they do not bother researching their articles but instead run with whatever half plausible line they are fed. Let us hope that their Editors read your piece.
I used to think Brogan was thorough, but he also ran with the “Worcester woman” article without bothering to look into the “unique sidelines” of the failed tory Worcester cllr candidate.
14
Spot on.
I used to think Cameron was a breath of fresh air. Now I think he’s just an upper class PR man who’s not really very competent. I shudder to think of a UK Government run by him - not because of his policies (whatever they are!) but because his party is lazily incompetent. Government can be hard work.. and one thing about GB is he does work. I see no evidence of that in the CP.
Not that I think it is likely… that Cameron will win.
And as a Scot I know alot of people who think Brown’s a sell out (to use a not too harsh description) but they will still vote Labour or on the flip side, regardless of Gordon will still vote SNP.
re 38 [previous thread. Punter Gordon can’t choose the election date, all he can choose is the day parliament is dissolved. The Election will follow 17 days later - Saturdays and Sundays not included. Since Saturday is not included in the count ergo the election cannot be on a Saturday. The 1918 election was on a Saturday but there have been many changes in the law since then.
re 44 previous thread what about the patients and visitors washing their hands too, or do you think they miraculously don’t carry MRSA?
20 - you’re talking about activists. I’m talking about people who have no strong party ties and don’t follow politics that closely.
Well, I’m acquainted with both activists and voters.
“156 and 160 What I find curious is the belief among some senior Conservatives that the environment is an issue that will sway large numbers of votes. It isn’t. It might just win us back Richmond Park, but that’ll be pretty cold comfort if we stall in marginal seats in places like West Yorkshire.
by Sean Fear September 24th, 2007 at 5:06 pm”
Well of course it won’t shift huge numbers of votes. Anymore than the EU will but then neither does, if the EU Constitution prevents flaking to UKIP and the Environment helps neuter anti Tory tactical voting amongst Lib Dems then that can make a powerful difference in the marginals, even though in toto huge numbers of votes are not shifting
14. Bally eric - this is just one bit from Brown’s speech:
“Let me be clear any newcomer to Britain who is caught selling drugs or using guns will be thrown out.”
A slightly menacing tone, wouldn’t you say? Also, a load of hypocritical twaddle - seeing as this government signed away our right to deport EU criminals a few years ago.
I can’t help thinking if a Tory leader stood up and said…
“Let me be clear any newcomer to Britain who is caught selling drugs or using guns will be thrown out”
… the Guardian would be wetting its p@ntyhose and saying Racist Tory Brands Migrants As Criminals. Tory Paints All Migrants With Criminal Brush. Tory Claims Newcomers Are Drug Traffickers and Gun Runners. Etc etc
Don’t you think?
Then you’ll feel it in your gut that Dave and chums have no chance of winning the next election.
30 - not really, no.
17.”There’s a surprise. Brown is obsessed with ingratiating himself with us on the right to the point where it’s becoming embarrassing. Creepy even - we right wingers are starting to feel like we’re being stalked!”
Priceless!
how dull tories on this site are. i cant WAIT for gordon to call an election, and i REALLY hope its next month.
Re ‘British Jobs for British workers.’ I just entered into my search engine and the first thing it came up with was link to Solidarity’, an alternative trade union movement which aparently takes a less ‘internationalist’ approach appears to have some links with the BNP. Gordon Brown’s conference speech came second.
There is one good side to all this though, 20th Century Fox TV have just this minute made an offer for my book. They want to turn my memoirs into a US TV sitcom.
It’s possibly the smallest offer in Hollywood history, but still - an offer from 20th Century Fox! I like the sound of that sentence.
Ahem. Sorry to go very slightly offtopic. Just had to share that.
I find Brown’s speech to be genuinely disturbing. It must surely have sent a bolt of fear through the heart of every decent thinking person.
Disgusting, absolutely disgusting, far-right fearmongering.
34.
Oh I can’t wait for an election too. Having to endure four weeks of the sort of stuff Gordon came out with today makes me feel very optimistic!
Brown is a Griffinite!
Ive just watched clips of Gordon’s speech since i didnt boither watching it live.
Do you knwo who it reminds me of, not in delivery but in the words used and its thrust, George W Bush.
36, I could say congratulations and I could say feck away off, or both in the same sentence.
I’ll let you choose…..
Might it just be something to do with the fact that the average person with an IQ anywhere near 100 or more would rather vote for a nodding dog in the back of a car than David Cameron?
30. Rhetoric verging on that of the BNP. What a shame the reality is so different, as Mrs. Lawrence and others know.
GB’s slogan : ‘the strength to change’. Funny that. Having just come back from the US I recognised it as the slogan of one of the candidates for the Presidency. Hillary Rodham Clinton. Who plagiarized who, I wonder?
One interesting question is how the Mail will react to that speech. It read like it had been scripted by Dacre himself. Indeed I wouldn’t be surprised if Dacre was actually involved in the concoction of it.
But… the Mail hates Gordon’s EU policy. Hmm…
One thing worth noting is that, in the previous thread, someone claimed that Brown ruled out a referendum in the speech. In fact, he didn’t - at least, not according to the BBC transcript, which seems authoritative.
Instead there was stuff about the red lines, and ils ne passeront pas etc etc.
Intriguing. I wonder, after the Sun assault today, if Gordo is preparing the way to say: this Treaty isn’t what we expected, therefore I’m calling a referendum.
He must know that if he called a vote he’d get the Mail and the Sun on board, big time, and romp home to a whopping election victory.
41. Understood. I’d tell me to feck off as well. Rest assured this offer is minuscule - TV option money is tiny compared to film money. It’s just the idea that’s so good. I can airily say: ‘ooh, I got an offer from 20th Century Fox today.’ Get in!
43…could be slogan there - ‘Brown’s Labour: BNP rhetoric mixed with loony left delivery’
Hi all. Thought Gordon’s speech was very solid. Liked the story about his eyes and the NHS.
Have just read through the last thread, and was amused at all the Tories crying in despair “why arn’t the left doing something“. You lot miss the old left, do you?
30. SeanT - most people, whether citizen or migrant worker, don’t want people around who sell drugs or uses guns. Citizens doing this will get thrown in jail, and migrants will get thrown out. End of.
Am not sure what your problem is - you think non-citizens found with guns/drugs should be put in jail here instead? Or let off? It’s still illegal to push drugs and carry a gun without licence. If Tories object so much, what is the Tory position on this?
Actually all of us, Labour, Lib Dem or Tory, should be deeply concerned with Brown’s speech. If he can win an election spouting that sort of divisive, far-right twaddle then why shouldn’t the BNP do well at some point in the near future? I’m frightened. Brown has become an ally of the quasi-fascists and justified their existence.
44. “GB’s slogan : ‘the strength to change’. Funny that. Having just come back from the US I recognised it as the slogan of one of the candidates for the Presidency. Hillary Rodham Clinton. Who plagiarized who, I wonder?”
Does this man have any orginal ideas?
Re “Gordon’s Conservatives” - I thought they were the Tories who have come into Gordon’s big tent…
48.
Now begins the ‘Nu-spin’ in the left leaning press justifying the anti-immigration and anti-foreign worker stance of a Labour PM. Then we really have to worry.
By the way I heard David Milliband very strongly rule out a referendum on the EU treaty amendment in a BBC interview after GB’s speech.
Does anyone know where I might get a copy of Brown’s speech? I want to send it to ‘Searchlight Magazine’.
I am a confirmed liberal, but see nothing ‘far-right’ about what Brown said. People seem to forget very quickly the furore that erupted over the failure to deport serious criminals from the U.K., and I suspect that many of those who are now protraying Brown as a Brownshirt were to the forefront of earlier condemnations about the shambles in the Home Office.
SeanT in parrticular - but all the other Tories on the last thread
I was listening to the speech in the car - away from all your comments so nothing external to influence me - and shouting “yes” because he absolutely spoke for me. Great speech
I quibled with his hair splitting over meritocracy. But that was about it. Top speech for middle England - of which I am one. I am betting on 2010 for election - might have to reconsider
British politics becomes more surreal by the week.
Brown hasn’t just pushed the Tories off the centre-ground but appears to have taken a position slightly to the right of the BNP. Where now for Cameron?
If that speech had been made by a leader of the Conservative Party, there would have been outrage from Labour Party members.
And to think, there are some on the libertarian left who for some bizarre reason chose to remain as members of Labour truly beliveing that Gordon would resuce the Party from its Blairite nightmare.
Truly there remain some deluded people on the left of British politics.
47. ‘Citizens doing this will get thrown in jail, and migrants will get thrown out. End of. ‘
No, they won’t. Except in your imagination.
Some of this hysterical rubbish about the speech being ‘far Right’ reminds me of the buffoons who used to gather outside student unions shouting “fascist” at anyone who wasn’t a member of the Social Workers Party.
If this is the best you Tories can do, I’m bemused.
I’d sooner chew my right arm off than vote for Brown, but Cameron does little to convince me that I should vote for the Tories. How has Cameron damnaged Broon in the last 90 days?
Like Northern Crock, Broon’s financcial engineering is hard to follow, and his penchant for off balance sheet PFI schemes hardly inspire confidence, has anyone forgotten Metronet yet. He stands for an incometently run, centralised England. He stands for government for, by and of placement, nothing more, nothing less.
46. Why doesn’t Brown get Griffin in his big tent? They seem to share a lot of core “British” values.
“British jobs for British workers”. Sheesh.
47. Snowflake, dahling. A Tory using this excitable rhetoric about “newcomers selling drugs” would be pounced on by the left. But when this stuff comes pouring out of Brown, like vomit out of Linda Blair in the Exorcist, suddenly its good sensible NuLabour policymaking.
This bilge is particularly objectionable, because YOUR rancid party gave away the right of British government to deport EU criminals. Apparently because Jack Straw “didn’t realise what he was signing”.
This is the key to Labour. You talk like Nick Griffin but you deliver like Nick Cotton. You are a bunch of diseased muppets.
And just having re-read the speech, what Brown said in full was not that British jobs should be for British workers, but that ” this is our vision: Britain leading the global economy [...] a world leader in the creative industries; and yes - modern manufacturing too - drawing on the talents of all to create British jobs for British workers.”
I would have thought that the *creation* of British jobs for British workers would be a perfectly laudible aim for any British government, and is an entirely different thing from saying that British jobs should be for British workers.
58.
When you get a text from a friend who is a Polish economic migrant who is genuinely concerned about his position, then you will understand the reality behind what Brown has just said.
I’d sooner chew my right arm off than vote for Brown, but Cameron does little to convince me that I should vote for the Tories. How has Cameron damnaged Broon in the last 90 days?
Like Northern Crock, Broon’s financial engineering is hard to follow, and his penchant for off balance sheet PFI schemes hardly inspires confidence, has anyone forgotten Metronet yet? He stands for an incometently run, centralised England. Broon reperesents government for, by and of placemen, nothing more, nothing less.
57. Changed your tune a bit haven’t you? Thought you were a bleeding heart Tory who objected to gun-toting non-citizens being thrown out. What would you do with them instead? The jails here are full, and it costs to house jailbirds. And you can’t let them off for committing a crime. So what is Tory policy on this?
Note too that the law-abiding migrant labour force are very much in favour of deportation for migrant crims. They are frequently victims of the crim gangs, and they hate being tarred with the same brush by the press. They would very much like the bad uns to be removed, so life is easier for the good guys.
47 Sounds like it was written by Dr Goebbels.
Runnymede, where the Magna Carta was signed, where British democracy was born, is infected with foot and mouth. A more telling symbol of the political canker that infects our once-great nation there could not be!
That well known fascist sympathiser Tony Woodley obviously feels the same way as you Tories.
He added: “He demonstrated he is in touch with ordinary working men and women and recognised that their main concerns are education, housing, crime and the NHS. It is the most Labour speech we have heard for a decade.”
62. Shouldn’t he have been out looking for a job rather than listening to Brown’s speech?
Brown’s speech shows that the liberal Left has been utterly emasculated. It comforts itself that because its party is in power - depriving the Tories of Government - that must be A Good Thing. Brown knows that England is essentialy a conservative country. Blair went to the right, taking a calculating position - power over principles. By accepting the Tory tax position, he would sweep up new voters, but the Left would be sufficiently supine to stay onboard. Exactly what happened. The Left’s hatred of the Tories allows them to accept the unthinkable - the adoption of Tory policies, if it is the means to keep the Tories out of power!
And the Right just smiles at them. Who needs to be in power - when your supposed political enemies are so blinded at retaining the reins of Government, that they will implement your policies for you…?
Blue Moon, go puke in a firebucket. You EU-loving nonce.
61. Chrisco, you are so right. Clearly, saying “British jobs for British workers”, as we have outrageously alleged on here, is COMPLETELY different to what Brown actually said, which was: “British jobs for British workers.”
A good point well made.
55. Can I get this right? You were so pleased by Brown’s speech you were actually shouting out “Yes, Yes!” in your car as you listened to it on the radio?
Isn’t that the very definition of sadness? Someone brought to near-orgasm in the privacy of his car BY A SPEECH FROM GORDON BROWN?
My view is that the Conservative vote share is stable and has been for 10 years. It is stuck at 33%, 1 in 3 people. Not an insignificant proportion, but not enough.
I doubt this will ever dip below 30%. Those who have stuck with the Conservatives for the last 10 years aren’t going to switch now.
Labour like to think that the political ground has shifted to the left - it hasn’t. If they’d carried on with their traditional shenanigans since 1997 they’d be out by now. Labour have simply tacked their rhetoric enough to the right since then to capture the extra 10-15% of aspirational floaters that the Tories had sewn up for nearly 20 years before that. At least 50% of Britons IMHO tack centre-right, prob more like 60% in England.
The left is much weaker than it was 20 years ago, not stronger. Gordons speech today was yet another demonstration of this reality.
Labours skill has been to hold together a disparate coalition of aspirational centre-right floaters, left-wing interests, liberals and fabians, who vote to a programme of rhetoric - and some policies - designed to appeal to the right.
Clever.
Obviously, Cameron needs to prize those floaters away from Labours coalition to win. He’s managed it to a degree in the South but, so far, nowhere else. To do it, he needs to show how Labour are full of hot air, don’t, won’t and can’t deliver, and that the Conservatives have a better narrative of Britains problems and how to solve them. A full time shadow-cabinet would be a good idea too.
34. RedNincompoop - you are clearly a sockpuppet of “Wodger”. Your writing style, the “insight”, the frequency of posting, his notable absence..
My ten pounds please!
60. “Snowflake, dahling. A Tory using this excitable rhetoric about “newcomers selling drugs” would be pounced on by the left.”
SeanT, I’m not into anyone selling drugs. Surely you realised that by now? Drug pushers are evil people.
69. SeanT, despite your best efforts to frequently hide it, I know that you are intelligent enough to understand the symantic difference between “British jobs for British workers!” and saying “We will create British jobs for British workers.”
Yes 61, absolutely right.
This isn’t Brown saying ‘only British workers can fill jobs in this country’, as that is rightly considered nonsense.
Brown was in fact saying ‘hey guys, I got an idea let’s create new British jobs for British workers’ - on BEHALF of, not exclusively for.
72. Oops. *semantic*
There in lies the power of software advertising!
O/T Looking at the top losers on the FTSE100 today it does rather look like bad news for the housing market:
Northern Rock
172.00 -22.30 -11.48%
TAYLOR WIMPEY ORD 25P
271.00 -16.75 -5.82%
Wolseley
807.50 -41.00 -4.83%
Barratt Developments
749.50 -36.50 -4.64%
Maybe in this context Gordon would be right to get the election over with.
Having now seen both the Beeb and ITV news in the past half hour I have to say that the coverage is positive to Brown and I’d expect the same in the press tomorrow.
On thread, reluctant as I am to disagree with our genial host I’d have to say that the Labour figure already includes Blair Tories. The object now is to peel away enough Conservatives to ensure the Tories stay in their box or close to it.
As a % “Gordon’s Conservatives” only have to amount to another 1-3% of the electorate to ensure our Gawd wins by a landslide …. after all he’s already peeled away “Gordon’s Liberals” !!
IMO …sobering times for the Tories and Lib Dems
72. Sorry, yes, of course. Now I see it. What I thought Brown said was “British jobs for British workers” - a ridiculous dog whistle statement aimed at closet xenophobes.
With your help I’ve reread the speech and yes, you are quite right: what he really said was “British jobs for British workers”.
Thankyou for helping me!
70. Not sure about your analysis. The left has won on things like rights for women, gay people and equality of opportunity. There is also a broad acceptance that state-provided public services like health are a Good Thing. Remember in 1997, some tories were still thinking in terms of privitising health (and I think Redwood still dreams of it). That’s all gone now. The NHS is here to stay, the argument has been won - by us.
Labour has also been quite redistributive - and the Tories have pledged to keep such re-distributive policies like tax credits. Another “win” for the left.
You keep saying that Cameron has succeeded in the south - but his share of the vote hasn’t noticably increased according to the polls. As for the north - I read your post on the last thread where you characterised northerners as “flat-capped miners” and talked about how to appeal to them as though they were an alien species. If you start off patronising them like that, you are dead in the water.
68. Marquee Mark - Spot on!!
That’s an excellent analysis. I couldn’t (can’t?) put it better myself.
Bang on the money and possibly explains why many Tories aren’t that bovvered.
In fact, you can make a strong argument that the Conservative opposition over the last 10 years has been the most effective opposition in history in influencing government policy.
Labour are SO scared of us that they will offer, to cut taxes, to cut bureaucracy, go eurosceptic, offer customer “choice”, aid home ownership, clamp down on immigration… ANYTHING to keep *us* out of power.
It’s quite funny actually
72. So you mean he’s copied the Blair trip of doing away with verbs altogether thereby turning his speach into a shopping list of histrionic soundbites.
Reading Brown’s apologists on this thread is quite unnerving, and I’m beginning to see how Hitler came to power. This country is rapidly becoming a scary place to live in. Brown is Britain’s most right wing politician since Oswald Mosley.
80. Blair *trick*. I wouldn’t want to suggest that spouting New Labour rhetoric requires you to be on hard drugs.
The excitement builds!!!!!
Will gordon announce it on 2 October???
Just heard Brown’s denouncing Tory tax policy with an extract from the Bible. Is he saying Dave is the anti-Christ?
I’ve asked before, to no response. As someone who didn’t listen to the speech, and would like to read it in full to gain my own view rather than a view through the tinted lenses of pb.com, can anyone point me to an online copy. Much appreciated.
84: As a Brown apologist I can exclusively tell you that he privately denounces Cameron as the anti-christ, Campbell as the anti-freeze and Blair as the anti-personnel mine.
85 - No worries, BBC now have it
Mike,
Anecdotal perhaps but I voted Tory last time and will vote Labour this. My wife is the same. We think we know others in the same boat.
Richard
87 - and George Osborne as anti-matter?
88 - I appreciate that it’s anecdotal but can we ask why? What is it that Michael Howard and Gordon Brown have in common that you find them preferable to Blair and Cameron?
In case the headline writers are a bit dim here’s the obvious one -
“Brown lurches to the right”
This is the perfect opportunity now for lib dems, Brown has rampaged onto tory right wing ground leaving the centre and left wide open for colonisation. Ming started to get this last week and taking labour on with a *liberal* but centrist message will further isolate Brown out on the right. Labour supporters hate being stranded out there and it’s only a matter of time before they realise they’ve been duped, cut off the escape route and labour will be left homeless.
It’s quite astonishing how Brown, in his vindictiveness, has forgotten that he owes everything to the labour party, now the left know they are not going to be satisfied by Brown now’s the time to usurp labour as the party which lies to the left of the tories.
89 And Andrea is anti pasta …. PB’s very own and favourite pre main event nibble !!
78. SnowFlake.
I wrote a long response, but I can’t post it for some reason at the moment despite trying a dozen times!
Must be a conspiracy
91.”It’s quite astonishing how Brown, in his vindictiveness, has forgotten that he owes everything to the labour party”
Interesting comment coming from you ukpaul, as I said last night there is none more sleekit than our Gawd when it comes to trussing up his own party like a Christmas turkey!
Try again..
78. “The left has won on things like rights for women, gay people and equality of opportunity. ”
That didn’t win you the election. Same as it didn’t in 1964/1966 or 1974. You’ve been able to impose those policies because you’ve been in power. Yes, the electorate have accepted them - and I largely agree with them too - but it’s a pretty thin olive branch to cling on to. Who on earth doesn’t agree with equality of opportunity?
93. Check for any of these words in your post: http://politicalbetting.com/index.php/the-banned-list/
89 The Reverend Doctor said on the other thread he vote hadn’t voted Labour since 1992 but was doing this time. He’s clearly a contra indicator (jinx in laymen’s terms)
“There is also a broad acceptance that state-provided public services like health are a Good Thing. Remember in 1997, some Tories were still thinking in terms of privatising health (and I think Redwood still dreams of it). That’s all gone now. The NHS is here to stay; the argument has been won - by us.”
The Conservatives have never publicly proposed privatising the NHS. May I also point out that you abolished the internal market; realised central control didn’t work, and then imposed it again, only more so, nicking a few Conservative ideas in the process?
No. On the NHS, you have moved right too.
This is what (Michael) Howard had to say at the election launch in 2005:
If you’re thinking what we’re thinking, it’s time for urgent action on the things that really matter:
- Reward for hardworking Britons;
- School discipline;
- Cleaner hospitals;
- More police; and
- Controlled immigration.
So I say again, the choice before voters on May the fifth is very clear.
Looks awfully like what Gordon was saying - in fact Gordon went much further, than Howard would have dared.
The Mail’s editorial will be full of praise tomorrow, with the caveat of Europe.
When he announces a referendum on that, Gordon’s journey to the ‘Dark Side’ will be complete.
“Labour has also been quite redistributive - and the Tories have pledged to keep such re-distributive policies like tax credits. Another “win” for the left.”
Where have you read that tax credits are popular, or successful? Income inequality is higher under Labour than it was under the Conservatives. Most people don’t agree with “handouts” no matter what they are, they *are* more bothered by the fact that the wealthy don’t pay as much tax as they do. That offends the British notion of fairplay.
Can’t remember which poll it was, but You Gov ran something 2 or 3 years ago which showed that more people objected to unemployment benefit than did in the 1980s. The BBC reported it as the electorate having significantly moved to the right over the past 20 years.
Also, you know you are very vulnerable on the huge numbers of people on IB and how this camouflages much unemployment. The efforts of Blair/Brown over the last 18 months to “clampdown” on this has been amusing to watch
Not sure how it would work but maybe as an internet viral - take Brown’s speeches and intercut them with Nick Griffin and co saying the same things. One time when negative camnpaigning would actually be about policy and useful enough to lose Brown his core vote.
All I changed to get the last bit through was to remove the space between “clampdown” and IB for “disabled benefit”
How either of those words are s£xual or offensive, I don’t know!
The point Mike makes is even more emphasised in the detailed data from the ICM Sunday Mirror poll . As I mentioned earlier today the net change amongst those who voted in 2005 is just 3 people from LibDem to Labour but in this poll there are 20 Lab to Con switchers with 9 Con to Lab ( possibly of course an exaggerated case as was the Con to UKIP switching in the Guardian poll ) . Labour’s lead comes from those who did not vote in 2005 where they get around twice as many votes than the Conservatives approx. 59 to 30 ( it is not quite possible to have exact figures as the tables do not show changes from those who voted Other in 2005 ) .
Note also in the Yougov detailed data from their last poll the admittedly small sample for Scotland has SNP Westminster support at 24% rather lower than previous polls .
103.Mark, so Brown has got to have the bankable votes of those who did not vote at all last time for this poll lead to transfer into a similar election victory margin?
Get ready for the election!!!!!!!!
anyone who thinks this is the ‘language of the BNP’ needs their head checked
78 Snowflake, there is probably more privately provided health care within the NHS now than even John Redwood imagined but it’s OK because its Labour. The NHS as defined by “free at the point of delivery” is the Tory version - Labour’s vision was an NHS fully provided by nationalised hospitals and staff nationally employed. Just as Councils are to become local purchasers rather than providers so increasingly the NHS is becoming a purchaser rather than provider. Or rather the English NHS is becoming that; the Scots NHS isn’t affected by Gordon’s views.
101, 106. Try this one: http://youtube.com/watch?v=VbJZ6dbuRzw
104 Basically yes , some of course will be voting for the first time the 18-21 year olds and others will be those who for one reason or another did not vote in 2005 . Neither group IMO are ones that I would like to rely on turning out to get a majority at the next GE .
90. I just think Brown is the man to trust. And at the end of the day I’m sure that’s why he will win.
Btw - I didn’t mean to enflame re. my freedom comment. It’s just that I lived in Africa a lot of my life and became wary of people who put things like ‘Freedom’ in their motto or slogan. It usually turned out they weren’t believers in anything of the sort. People who bang on about something like that shouldn’t be trusted to deliver that. And just to show how fair I am, Brown on ‘change’ is a classic example. Of course he’s not going to change a thing.
Democracy is another favourite for new political parties but there are lots of others. If a name is too clear beware. That’s why our two main parties are so good. Labour has long since ceased to be too connected with that. And as Maggie showed, you can be the greatest leader of the Tory party and have little or no conservative fibre in your being.
(I’m being semi-playful!)
O/T - I can’t believe the b£t I just made on betfair leader exit market.
Some charlie was offering 6/1 to lay on David Cameron ceasing to be official Conservative Leader by the end of the year!!
Unbelievable! He must have screwed up and meant to back or something..
Must be the easiest £40 I’ve made my whole life.
111. Still £6 available on that btw - couldn’t deposit more than £200 in one go!
Just came across the following whilst looking for something else. Four years ago yesterday
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/uk/article1162008.ece
“We can overtake Tories, says party chairman”
“MARK OATEN, the Liberal Democrat chairman, sketched out a strategy yesterday for his party to overtake the Conservatives’ share of the vote at the next general election. Charles Kennedy could then become Prime Minister in 2009, he said.”
Will write about betting implications of Russian government reshuffle tomorrow.
2007 GE odds on Betfair have shortened considerably over the past half hour from 3.3-1 to 2.6-1 on a matched basis.
As all drug pushers are evil would somebody mind explaining to me exactly how they are going to deport foreign ones? Gordon was very clear in his speech - they will be deported. As this will require numerous treaty opt-outs/derogations etc what is the timetable for this to happen? Do we send them back to countries where torture might be used. If they are EU citizens what process will we negotiate to arrange their deportation. This is worse than ‘deep cleaning hospitals’ - utter tripe.
Brown’s speech was laughable - none of it will happen. It was very effective politically however. I am really pleased by it as now I know there really is a fight to be had - it’s not left and right any more it’s authoritarian bigoted spendthrifts versus liberal England - should make for a cracking election.
In fact I’m so appalled at the exteme authoritarian nature of Brown that I’ll stop hoping for an LD wipe out. I’d rather Mark Senior’s lot had more MPs than Brown’s BNP-lite
In the 70s I was accused of being a fascist by people like RedTed for tentatively suggesting that full stops and capital letters might, possibly, be quite a good idea. Now they cannot see anything wrong with the slogan, “British jobs for British workers”. How the world changes.
116. A ‘cracking’ election haha!
It was pitched in part to the Mail-Thatcher readers. But not just posturing. Son of the Manse … similarities with Thatcher are not just confined to a photograph. And that’s why he could be a giant of British politics. Love her or loathe her, Thatcher was a great. I think Brown has something similar about him. Just wish that prat Blair had moved over a little sooner, but nevermind. Gordon’s greatest danger is that of Maggie: burnout from workaholicism. You can’t keep this Protestant work-ethic PM’s from burning the midnight oil …
108: Chilling. Every sentence in that could have been uttered by Brown today. We are living in dangerous times. I believe all Tories, Lib Dems and well-intentioned Labourites should form a coalition of resistance to Brown’s Labour. Now is the time for all of us political moderates to unite and take a stand; for a party that succumbs to this kind of far-right populism must never be allowed to prosper in a free and democratic country. We must do all we can to prevent Brown and his crew’s seizing power at a general election on their agenda of fear and hate.
116. Good post - best one I have read yet from the Tory side. I think Ming is on the right track and I must admit I was not a fan until the Ld conference speech.
So if you all disbelieve this how come Labour`have won some safe Tory Council Seats in the SE in the last few weeks?
121. I shouldn’t worry too much about the toke folk. They don’t win anyone a majority. The mainstream always always is where you need to be to win power, and Brown has seized it.
His one weak area is none of the issues over dope/drink/liberty and such … it’s almost certainly Europe I think if the tabloids continue to push it. As yesterday’s slightly nonsensical poll hinted, were he to offer a EU referendum he’d have the right-wing press right (ho ho) behind him.
116:
Looks like Labour might soon be adopting Letwin’s ‘fantasy island’ deportation plan!
At the next election Brown should be followed around by young lads with shaven heads and white t-shirts carrying placards: Nazis for Nu-Lab, British Jobs for British Workers.
111 Casino
Yes, that’s weird. Some time ago I put down some extremely optimistic £10 bet offers on that market and forgot about them. Now somebody has matched that tenner - at 6/1.
I think you are right. Somebody made a mistake. They probably meant to lay.
Re 125: Its GB - he is going for the snap GE!
121 Labour have not won any Conservative seats in the South East safe or otherwise , unless you consider Birmingham , Worcester and Rossendale to have moved rather farther South than they really are .
Hooray for Tony Benn. Always like him. From the BBC:
“Tony Benn has made an impassioned plea to Gordon Brown to give the British people a referendum on the EU treaty.
The veteran left-winger said it was the “most bureaucratic, terrifying system in the world and it’s being imposed on us on the grounds it’s tidying-up”.
“If tidying up involves tearing up the British constitution, it’s a very interesting definition,” he added.
Mr Benn told a Labour conference fringe meeting he thought Mr Brown would eventually cave in to calls for a vote.”
Edit share of vote increase in SE and winning midlands seats from the Tories….. Worcester was a safe Tory seat wasn’t?
As for the NAzi jibes towards Brown, think thats a bit too far…. Whats wrong with looking after British Interests, Not tolerating certain crimes etc…?
re 116 it’s probably the same way as he categorically promised us that the killers of Rhys Jones in Liverpool would be caught.
10 years of Blair have probably rubbed off on him - he says something and hey presto instantly it is true.
Where have all the Harpies/Hyenas gone? They seem to appear in a pack, have a rant and then disappear again. Rather than “eats,shoots and leaves” perhaps it should be “bleats,shouts and leaves”/
SeanT and Tony Benn agree that something is true - then this I know - that what ever they agree on must be tosh
Benn’s record on being wrong is world championship level
129 In fact Labour vote share in council elections in the South East outside London has recently been around the level of the minor parties , less than 4% in Chelmsford , around 7% in Tunbridge Wells , 8% in Stroud , 7% in Portsmouth Fratton , 5% in Cheltenham . They should do rather better in the seats they are defending this week in Dover and Portsmouth .
The first person to mention the nazis loses the argument.
Gosh! seant praising a leftie, whatever next.
Re 128: Sean - Strangely I agree with you about an EU referundum on the treaty enbodying the so called “constitution” which was rejected less than 2 years ago. The British people as a whole see no need for it at the moment because no politician has explained to them in language they can understand why it is important and necessary. Personally I do not agree with giving away elements of our “national sovereignty” unless there is a proper debate and a vote taken which would put the issue to bed for say 10 years.
116 “authoritarian bigoted spendthrifts versus liberal England”.
Yes some of us have been fighting this one for the last 20 years - tremendous fun but we always get a bloody good kicking in the end.
132. But you are, after all, the man who was brought to a sexual climax in his own car, shouting Yes! Yes oh Yes!, by listening to a GORDON BROWN SPEECH ON THE RADIO.
Shall we draw a polite veil over your absurd opinions, of whatever kind, while you go and have a calming sandwich?
Whoops, watch out, Jack Straw is speaking tomorrow. Better pack some kleenex for your commute.
anywhere i can get 1997 election footage from?
Interesting to note that last month the Daily Mail lost copies a day, whilst the Daily Express gained 30,000 copies a day. Maybe the readers of the former are becoming disillusioned by Dacre’s love in with Brown.
…..and in my ten years I am going to reverse all the policies of the previous Labour Govt……….
no super casino
cannabis put back to B
remove university charges
Doctors to work after hours
recording arrivals to the country
etc
and for my mates Murdoch & Dacre a referendum on the EC treaty!
139 Previous post should have referred to the Daily Mail having lost 60,000 copies per day.
139. No, the explanation you are looking for is called “Madeleine McCann”. The Express have led on it virtually every day since the “abduction”. And, apparently, the British newspaper reading public can’t get enough.
That’s all there is to it.
142
The ultimate objective of the Daily Express is to link the, ‘Madeline McCann Case’ with the, ‘Death of Princess Di’
142 Well that’s your interpetation Sean. We’ll see what the Sept circulation figures show - there must come a point when Rothermere starts to become concerned. For him the battle by his flagship newspaper against its hated competitor is everything.
143. Isn’t it the objective of the Daily Express to link everything in the universe to the death of Princess Di?
145
For gawd sakes, dont tell ‘em, they bloody well will!
144. Hm. Speaking as a Daily Mail writer (I do hope my editor doesn’t read this blog) I don’t think the Mail sees the Express as a rival. It’s like saying America sees France as a rival. Once, perhaps, but no longer… The Express is too small and pathetic.
These days, I think the Mail probably sees the Telegraph and the Times, and maybe even the Sun, as its main rivals.
However I agree with you that falling sales are a problem for the Mail. Dacre has been ill - perhaps it is that.
But there could be a more fundamental problem (apart from the general decline of print newspaper sales versus websites, and the rise of freebies). I think the Mail thrives on anger, titillation and outrage. Supporting a dull consensual leader like Brown is the wrong path to take, on that basis alone.
From what I’ve seen of the Daily Mail lately, it seems a curious mix of pro-Brown front page or prominent inside news articles, anti-Brown articles by columnists, editorials that flit from praising Cameron one minute to praising Brown the next, sometimes having a go at both.
It’s all over the place. Mind you, so is The Times.
147
What ever your politics the Mail is a highly professional product, the Express isn’t, simple as that.
Interesting article Mike, in fact they all have been today. I can’t catch up with all the comments but will say this:
Will Gordon Gamble? No, but if he leaves it too long he may find himself boxed into a corner. I suspect he will still bottle it, causing himself damage.
As for Brown’s Tories? I agree, tosh.
It is arguable that the papers’ confusion merely reflect the incoherence of the government. Labour is meant to be a leftwing party, but anyone reading the transcript of Brown’s speech today would question that. The majority of it - not a small part of it, the majority - sounds like the speech of an oldfashioned rightwing Tory circa 1958.
Let’s face it. We’re all confused. The prime minister included.
147. So you are Hyena - albeit a little crestfallen one at the moment.
147 Hm. Speaking as a Daily Mail writer …. I don’t think the Mail sees the Express as a rival.