Can Gordon win over any more Lib Dems?
September 25th, 2007
Can he appeal to Ming’s party and make speeches like yesterday’s?
As discussed yesterday the move to Labour in the polls has been as a result of two major developments - more Labour supporters are saying that they would be certain to vote and the party is winning back support from the party that Brown irritatingly refers to as “the Liberals”.
The idea of “Gordon Conservatives” is, for the moment, a device to put pressure on the Tories. All the polls show that their numbers are dwarfed by the “Dave Labourites”.
The Lib Dems, however, are a totally different proposition and all the evidence is that a part of the Brown bounce is made up of returning 2005 voters for Kennedy’s party. There are a lot of them. Between 2001 and 2005 Labour dropped six percentage points most of which seems to have been caused by Iraq.
Once that is finally off the agenda then Labour must be hoping that LD voters might come back.
Individual polls vary but my guess is that about a third of those who abandoned Labour at the last election have now returned and that move has been accelerated since Gord’s arrival. So there’s still a lot to play for which is why, as both Cameron and Brown have identified, the next election is about winning the centre ground.
The Lib Dems also hold a raft of seats where Labour is sitting in second place and might have hopes of victory. Of Brown’s top 50 targets a fifth are in Lib Dem hands.
If the Tories do make some progress then it would be nice to off-set part of the impact with some gains from the Lib Dems.
So the interesting dilemma for Brown is how can he continue with his Tory undermining strategy while at the same time building up his appeal to Lib Dem waverers? For while yesterday’s conference speech might have helped the former there was not that much to appeal to the latter.
Maybe an early move on ID cards could help?
The reason why I think that an election is not imminent is that there’s still a long way to go before Gordon has the Tories where he wants them.
Mike Smithson
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[This from the other thread, just wanna make sure Jack sees it - for obvious reasons:]
219. OK, Jack, I’m going to break the habit of a lifetime and actually propose a bet on something, on politicalbetting com!
I’ve never done this before. So bear with me. But here’s my bet.
I wager you £10 that, if Brown persists with his present no referendum line - and a general election is called before the Constitutional Treaty is passed in parliament - the Sun will NOT endorse Gordon Brown.
Deal? Winner pays to a charity of his choosing.
As I pointed out yesterday , the detailed data from the last ICM poll shows relatively a small net movement from LibDem to Labour in those who voted at the last GE , The Labour poll lead came from those who did not vote in 2005 for whatever reason but say they will vote now . In this group Labour led the Conservatives by roughly 59 to 30 voters .
1 seanT.
…. Ten guineas it is !!
Don’t think Brown will have to pander much to the 05-iragi-LDs to get them back (as above, just turning up was enough for a third of them) - these are people, after all, that voted for the nu-lab agenda in 97/01. It’s admittedly upsetting that 70%+ of the voters have been voting for such a similar right-wing/authoritatian agenda since 97 and the figure is likely to increase next election but that’s democracy for you.
The question for today isn’t The Sun or Liberal Democrat waverers but how Benedict will react to his blog dropping from 41 to 66 in the Top 100 Right of Centre Blogs. He might need to start mentioning that he has a blog in his posts to recover his Top 50 placing.
Plus of course there are a number of newly vulnerable Labour seats to the Lib Dems. Brown can ill afford to leak even a small number to the Yellow hordes. He needs them all.
On positioning the Tories where he wants them. I’m sure Cameron is well aware of this, and so long as your polling data supports him with Dave’s Blairites backing him, he’ll surely stick center.
On ID Cards I think he will continue to make a mistake. As polls show people in favour he’ll see it as ideal to embarrass Cameron, ignoring the fact that those in favour are not passionately so while those opposed are especially Lib Dems. As you pointed out from one o your acqaintances Mr Smithson it could even actively shift Lib Dem votes to the Tories never mindback to Labour I think
Gordo’s speech goes down well with the Beebs loyal website visitors…
http://newsforums.bbc.co.uk/nol/thread.jspa?sortBy=2&threadID=7468&edition=1&ttl=20070925144509&#paginator
Among the groups who switched heavily to the Lib Dems in 2005 are:
a) Muslims. They do seem to be switching back to Labour (outside Tower Hamlets and Newham, where Respect has a strong following). Expect big swings to Labour in most seats with big Muslim populations. However, Labour hold most such seats already.
b) Students/academics/urban intellectuals. This produced wins for the Lib Dems in seats like Hornsey & Wood Green, Oxford East (notionally), Leeds NW, Cambridge. I expect some of them will at least give Gordon Brown the benefit of the doubt, and revert to Labour. However, this will be offset in part by an incumbency vote for Lib Dems who won in 2005.
c) Tactical voters. In places like Enfield Southgate, and St. Alban’s, Lib Dem voters who’d voted Labour to get rid of the Tories, reverted to their true allegiance. I’m not sure whether this group will have the same burning desire to keep the Tories out that they had in 1997 and 2001.
David Cameron quote: (reuters)
” Instead, he focused on improving public services, especially hospitals and schools.
He said: “I will not let you down … I will stand up for a strong Britain.” ”
Well that’s a relief. How lucky we are to have all these politicians dedicated to looking after our interests.
This is quite likely to be the decisive question in seats like Broxtowe, where there is a very large ‘Guardian’ vote. I don’t find they raise ‘liberty’ issues though - the keys are foreign policy, overseas aid, (pro) asylum and redistribution.The LDs got nearly 20 per cent last time and if it looks close I believe I can borrow a significant part of that - there was little in GB’s speech that this group would have objected to and Gordon has more credibility on aid issues than any other leading politician.
10 - apart from the anti-asylum stuff and that it had zero-redistribution?
Dear Mr Palmer - we’re designing a new washing machine and it wont rotate fast enough - as you seem to be a guru in spinning can you offer us any tips ?
8
b) Where Lib Dems get into such seats they seem to find it even easier than they normally do to entrech themselves
c) I think you’re right
10 I’m sure the Tories will think they can borrow right leaning Lib Dems to offset any Guardianistas you get
re 10 I think you will find they will object to the flag waving
and the Daily Mail agenda. The more Brown goes onto the territory the greater the chance of them sticking with the Lib Dems - if Ming can rise to the challenge for once
Nick Palmer “there was little in GB’s speech that this group would have objected to”
Que?
Deport criminal foreigners
criminalise cannabis
end 24 hour licencing
The Blue background
ID cards
70 to 80 references to Britain
etc
Britain: A horrible place full of little scummy flag waving working people who, god knows, we’d not touch with a bargepole or indeed my copy of the Guardian….though we do care deeply about them…as long as they stay in their sink estates and don’t attempt to move out….
the second and third on that list being a particular problem
Criminalise cannabis? A joke.. because as we all know - like many of our laws.. it’s unenforceable. Where are the jail places?
End 24 hour licensing? A good idea… sack the party that introduced it. Must have been the Conservatives… oops it was Labour.
ID cards? Since the biggest IT project of all - NHS records is a mess… why should the Government persuade us they will do any better?
Lets face it… anyone who votes Labour on the above issues has a problem.. they either are brain dead or believe the stodge fed to them by a series of failed Home Secretaries (in which case they are brain dead).
I’m sorry…
The only thing keeping the Labour Party in power is the incompetence and sheer laziness of the Opposition CP… it’s certainly not Labour’s record on the above…
I think there are some funny ideas about what a typical LD voter is like - in the university seats yes it is the urban intellectual liberal. What keeps most LibDem MPs in their seats however is independent minded lower-income earners in remoter regions as a brief look at the map will reveal.
The main thing that unites them is they don’t want a Tory MP, which is usually the alternative.
Former Con PPC (2005 in Brighton Kemptown and 2001 in Bootle) Judith Symes has defected to Labour.
She wasn’t very far from getting elected in 2005 (Labour held Kemptown with a 6.9% majority)
http://www.theargus.co.uk/display.var.1713002.0.party_election_hopeful_defects_to_labour.php
The Tory Party stands with the ball at its feet in front of an empty net whilst the much-fancied opposition goalie is chatting up some bird on the touchline. (Well, the editor of the Daily Mail anyway). It’s 0-0 and the opposition only needs a draw to go through.
Will the Tory Party seize this historic opportunity?
Or will it be distracted by Swampy’s friends standing on the other side of goal and decide to tickle them up a bit more?
I do wonder…
21 - so she’s now endorsing the same things she presumably campaigned against 2 years ago? How can someone credibly stand as a Tory candidate under Howard and then leave under Cameron? If her complaint is that the Tories “haven’t changed” from where they were 2 years ago, then if that was so objectionable to her, why was she there in the first place?
Or was Bournemouth just handier than Blackpool?
1,3: er, WINNER pays…?!
23 - Given the talk yesterday about Browns speech being lifted from the Tory manifesto of 2005, I can only assume that she feels right at home, and feels she has not changed views, but both parties have…
“How can someone credibly stand as a Tory candidate under Howard and then leave under Cameron?”
Because she hasn’t been selected to fight a seat this time round.
Mind you, Quentin Davies backed IDS for leader, but regards Cameron as too right wing for him.
23.”Or was Bournemouth just handier than Blackpool?”
it was nearer (?) Brighton
Maybe I’m missing something in this whole discussion about LD/Con/Lab switching between parties.
Labour will win the election,with a very comfortable majority, if they retain the same percentage of voters as in ‘05.
The war caused a significant drift away from Lab in ‘05,both to LD’s,and those that decided not to vote.
No serious student of the opinion polls can believe that they will do worse than ‘05 should an election be called within the next 6 months.
Northern Rock will not pay its dividend - down 10p to 162 p.
28. Not necessarily. If, say, Labour and the Tories both win 36%, then Labour will most likely lose their majority.
26. “Because she hasn’t been selected to fight a seat this time round”
I see she was on Poplar and Limehouse shortlist this time and
28 Back in May following the local elections and opinion polls showing a big Conservative lead which would increase under Brown , you may well have posted ” No serious student of opinion polls can believe that Labour will do better than in 2005 should an election be called in the next 6 months ” .
31 I think she was also on the shortlist for Thanet North. I think we can reasonably assume that a matter of political principle doesn’t lie behind this particular switch of allegiance.
33 Have you seen the fascinating new site which analyses region by region polling
Yes. I can’t say I agree with its conclusions, however.
I guess it depends on whether Gordon needs more Labour votes or less Lib dem / Con votes.
Any answers ?
Gaining that third may be enough as long as he can make tory voters less likely to vote and leave enough of the lib dem vote to make it hard for the Tories.
It’s not two dimensional is it ?
I guess the basic psychology is that Con-Lab switchers are valuable beasts that require a lot of work and take time so its best to start appealing to them now and in a more subtly sustained way. They respond to mood music(rather than policy)and the sort of stuff Frank luntz tells us about.
Its a courtship .
LD switchers may respond to policy (sometimes A policy )a bit more but change their minds much quicker.
Its a one night stand that could turn into a courtship.
33. I’m not sure if she will be more successful with Labour. Brighton has 2 Lab MPs retiring next time (Kemptown and Pavilion) but Labour has already selected in those seats
She would probably need a big parachute … a late retiring MP and the NEC shortlisting and getting rid of local candidates…
35 All or just some? I suspect though only Ave it 07 would think the LD s were at 1 seat in Scotland! Lol
Judith Symes had no love for Labour or Gordon Brown when she tried to be selected as candidate for Poplar and Limehouse. As she refused to even deliver leaflets to the block of flats where she lives,Labour have not gained a very enthusisatic footsoldier.
A case of a dissafected office seeker I suspect
33 - Genuine question Sean (and others) - when was the last defection that you think was a genuine matter of political principle? (I guess a ‘principled defection’. I think that a case can be made for Lloyd George leaving the Liberals… and am then struggling…
)
Re the Sun and Europe I don’t think their refusal to endorse GB adds up to much. Far more damaging would be a full on assault on GB across the board throughout the campaign.
The leader today suggested that they would have come out full heartedly for GB’s speech but for the EU issue. I have no doubt this is Murdoch’s position and that the over the top coverage on the referendum is at his prompting. So far GB is absolutely firm on the issue. If I see the Sun smash into GB across the board then we’ll know it’s war.
How many seats would it cost GB? Fewer than Murdoch thinks, I suspect. It wasn’t the Sun which won it in 1992( or at least that’s a typically boastful exaggeration); it was a very effective CCO campaign on Kinnock and taxes plus a last minute emotional defence of the Union by Major which helped the Tories win not 2 seats in Scotland, as the polls suggested, but 11. Pretty well the entire majority.
This doesn’t argue for May rather than October. The Sun line isn’t going to change so GB would face the same assault then. Actually the European issue argues for early or late.
If GB goes early there will be no agreement in October at the EU Summit on the treaty amendment. GB can reasonably tell the Portuguese that he couldn’t possibly commit a future Government half way through a GE campaign. I wouldn’t rule out a staged row with GB making it quite clear that he would veto and go on vetoing any text which didn’t protect his famous red lines.
Would The Sun, or rather Murdoch, regard that as enough to offer a grudging endorsement on balance given their support for him generally and the likelihood that he’ll win? ( if the polls by then suggest that?). Possibly. It would certainly help GB neutralise the issue for a couple of weeks.
By May the Treaty will have been signed but certainly not ratified. It would be the time of maximum danger. Time for a real head of steam to build up for a referendum.
By 2009, on the other hand, GB could have ratified the Treaty ( assuming the Labour rebellion melts away and assuming the Lords can be squared-two big ifs I agree)which would pose a tricky problem for DC. Threaten to tear up a ratified treaty or be accused by UKIP of betraying the cause.
More reasons against May and in favour of early or long. Marks and Sparks Chairman fearing a downturn in retail sales before Xmas. Also a very tricky autumn statement with downward projections for growth, upward projctions for borrowing and a toughish public spending round. Who was the last Chancellor anyone?
What GB should be concerned about but obviously isn’t is a real barnstormer by DC next week. He knows he’s fighting for his political life but he’s never lacked courage. I think he will deliver big time next week. If the GE decision hasn’t been taken it might make GB back off. If it has it would be a cracking start to the campaign.
No doubt Labour posters will pour scorn on this forecast!
40 Alan Howarth’s change of heart seemed pretty genuine, and I’m sure Peter Temple Morris belatedly came to the conclusion he was in the wrong party (something I’d thought was the case for years).
This particular defection seems to be based on little more than frustrated ambition, like those of Emma Nicholson, Quentin Davies, and Shaun Woodward.
re 30 I agree that that would likely produce a’hung’ parliament.
For that result to be effected,it will take a significant switch to the Cons from either Lab or LD’s.
The current polls do not suggest that this outcome is a probability.
The suggestion by some that the Tories are facing an ‘open goal’to win an election is misguided to say the least,and displays an inexperience of political campaigns,where ,I would argue,the support for the Parties remains largely unchanged from beginning to end
Where is the photograph from
16:
End 24 hour licensing? That was Blair’s (hic) only triumph! Seriously, I’m starting to feel sorry for Gordon Brown. Imagine, you’ve dedicated your life to being a socialist firebrand and thinker; you wait years longer than you would have wished to fulfill your birthright and become leader of your party. Then finally you get there - you seize the crown; that single thing you’ve always dreamed of is now a reality. And what happens? A few weeks into the job and you’ve morphed yourself into the archetypal craggy old Tory colonel from the Shires - bowing to Mrs T. and welcoming absurd right-wing nutters like Quentin Davies into the fold. And all this to get the votes of the sort of people you’ve spent a lifetime reviling. A lesson for us all I suppose: never desire anything too much.
43 - for clarity in my rather laboured football metaphor, when I referred to “the opposition”, I meant the other side in the match and not HM’s Official Opposition.
41- no , I think you make a good case.
I think The Tory conference is the most important in terms of its effect on domestic politics (and has been since August).
Cameron is capable of a Barnstormer and clearly the Tory Faithfull can be swayed by him in full flow.
21: ‘Former Con PPC (2005 in Brighton Kemptown and 2001 in Bootle) Judith Symes has defected to Labour.’
I love defections because they usually bring to the fore the reasons why we all hate politicians. What’s the betting that when this silly bint was attempting to climb the Tory greasy poll she never uttered a peep about Labour’s ‘ten years of record investment in public services and the highest employment ever’. Why not? She only just noticed it? Politicians - pathetic!
45 - no fear, voters will see the real Gordon Brown come to the fore(court) when his latest 2.5p tax hike on petrol (+ extra VAT take) hits home next week. The £1 litre approaches. Is he really going to call an election the very same week?!
Although if he does, at least the election is out of the way before his next couple of 2p hikes hit voters’ wallets next April and September.
With the sort of speech he gave yesterday, a more pertinant question might be;
Can Gordon hold on to the Lib Dem’s he’s brought back?
I suspect that Judith Symes will have a fascinating time in the Shadwell Labour Party. Whether Labourwill be that excited about acquiring a member living in one of the riversides most expensive and exclusive developments will be a different matter. Shadwell Labour Party tends to have some distaste for exclusive gated properties. Perhaps Judith will change this.
40. Enoch Powell.
Sean Fear
Having read Campbell’s diaries I was struck by the fact that Woodward was extremely insistent on making the point that he was one of the favourites for the Tory leadership. Che?
48 Such people have no conception how ridiculous they make themselves look.
To be honest the Labour party is stale and needs to be kicked out as soon as possible. The Lib dems are my Party and want them to do well and to be honest we have the best policy on most issues.The Cons have not changed much so the best possible Government to elect would be a Lib dem one. Minger is our leader.
To be fair, I suspect she never conceived/uttered the words. People should be able to change minds or party - but you need to be careful about how you do it. Above all respect where you have come from.
I fully expect Gordon to show off a couple of defections from the Tories on the eve of their Conference. In fact, I will be disappointed if he doesn’t - he really is that predictable….yawn….
But who is he going to unveil over the coming weekend? Place your bets…
57 Dave?
57: Margaret?
Maybe he’ll just announce a U-turn on foxhunting?
Or reintroduce the poll tax?
Has Rik been in today?
23 - “so she’s now endorsing the same things she presumably campaigned against 2 years ago?”
Perhaps she loves ID cards and is furious that Dave opposes them, whereas Mikey Howard supported them… oh and Dave did too then…
57 - Bob Spink and David Amiss
oh, and Andrew Pelling…
By the way, on the subject of “ethical defections”, can I put in a word for Chris Mayhew, who for some reason or another defected from Labour to the Liberals when as MP for Woolwich he had one of the safest seats in England, and had absolutely nothing to gain from the move.
63 - There was also Peter Thurnham, MP for Bolton NE? who defected to the LDs in 1996 (?) - did not stand in 1997 and was not heard of again.
57- Robert Peel, Winston churchill and Elton John
57:
I reckon Andrew Rosindell will be there with his red rosette and his snog with Harriet Harman!
57 Maybe Simon Heffer will be there, with a red rosette.
66 - Surely Harriet will be snogging his dog?
57:
Ann and Nick Winterton would be good defection double act. (I’m sure Mr Palmer would forgive that little indiscretion about the cockle pickers.)
57. Both Wintertons
Have just had a word (not a bet) that November 1st is set to be the election date.
I don’t know how certain this is, but I’ve had a bit on betfair accordingly. Laddies and Hills are still 2/1 as well.
Presumably, either Paul Marsden’s defection from Labour to the Lib Dems or from the Lib Dems back to Labour, must have been ideological/ethical?
Whatever happened to him?
Emma Nicholson didn’t get much out of her defection. We made her a peer and shes been a MEP but I’m sure the tories would have done the same. Shes been an asset to the party apart from Iraq. Interesting short list to suceed Phil Willis in Harrogate including the ever portable Greg Stone.
Dave’s the one. I’ve heard he’s got his eye on a junior ministerial post. Quite frankly he’d be quite good in the role if he works at it. Let’s face it he’s more left wing than some in Labour these days!
40 - Do you meant between 1918-22, or 1931-35, Lennon? In both cases, the principle is arguable. It’s a bit difficult to judge, as each depends on your view of the defector’s idoelogical grounds, and also on your view of tribalism. But Chris Mayhew is a good example - like the other younger talented Gaitskellites, he could have easily ascended to a safe berth in Cabinet by the end of the Wilson period had he not resigned over defence cuts in the mid-1960s.
73. Who are the others shortlisted?
I must say I nearly threw up when I say Quinten Davis on the platform today. Surely if you had concluded that everything you had fought for in Public life was wrong you would just lock your self away in a cupboard for a few years ? Perhaps we need a thread on which defection in history has done the most damage to the recipient party?
57.”But who is he going to unveil over the coming weekend? Place your bets…”
Must admit the thought of a defection being announced during the Tory Conference crossed my mind a few weeks ago as well. I was going to predict that the talk of an Autumn GE would again be much hyped this weekend in an attempt to try and undermine the Conservative Conference, but I see that Aaron has got there first @71.
69&70. Spooky!!
Just an observation but the bids on the election date on betfair are starting to get hit again for an election in 2007.
It has just started to trade under 2/1 for the first real time…
Has anybody said anything?
When parliament re-convenes DC should announce, on behalf of the entire party, that they are so convinced by Brown’s right wing policies that they were going to defect, en masse, to Labour. Half the Labour party, infused with class loathing suddenly rediscover their principles and depart through the other door. Brown happy because he remains PM. Thatcherite revolution complete.
In answer to the original question “No Mike Gord will not win over any more Lib Dems”,and they have tried to woo the Proper family to no avail.
Just to cheer Mike up IMHO I think the LibDems will see their ratings climb in future polls,alternatively NuLabour may hijack their policies. See below
http://money.aol.co.uk/minister-speaks-out…925001209990003
“Exchequer Secretary Angela Eagle said Labour had lessons to learn from the Liberal Democrats over getting more money from the top earners.
She spoke out during a debate at the party conference in Bournemouth, which was joined by two of Sir Menzies Campbell’s most senior colleagues.”
I still think there is enough traction to get some anti fat cat measures into the interim budget. They will cleverly position them as being a way of funding changes to the wider savings guarantee situation……great Robin Hood position for Brown’s waning egalitarianism
………….
Mr Cable lashed out at Prime Minister Gordon Brown’s attempts to create a “government of all the talents” by recruiting opposition politicians.
Although the PM’s attempts to recruit former Lib Dem leader Lord Ashdown to his cabinet were rebuffed, he has enlisted the help of several senior party members in advisory roles.
Mr Cable said: “I am concerned about what I would regard as big tentism - this attempt to get everybody into the same fold.
“I think it is an attempt to create - in the nicest possible way - a one-party state.”
OF COURSE! Simple when you think about it….blur the distinctions and you have a neat totalitarian state…..Stalin anyone?
77 Yellow Submarine, I humbly refer you to my post at 72. But once again, I cannot work out who gained and who lost….
57 Marquee Mark I think there are a few of us on here who took Hills 5/1 and better on another Tory MP defection before December 2008 at the time of Quentin Davies’s switch .
Defections aren’t all bad
80 Not as daft as it sounds. Dave was at his most effective during the Education debate IMO.
8 - Largely agree, SeanF: although I suspect that LD-Lab tactical voting might be stronger if LDs locally feel there’s a real chance of a Conservative victory at a seat level. Lab-LD tactical voting would probably not happen.
John Bercow is the obvious one. He seemed to be close to going over a couple of months ago but pulled back from the brink. I haven’t heard his recent utterances. Maybe GB’s social conservatism will put him off! The GB attack on fiscal help for marriage will have been music to his ears, though. he heavily criticised this idea himself in the House of Commons.
“John Bercow is the obvious one”
To Labour, or to Respect?
73 Clare Somebody who is local, works for Phil and is the hot favourite and Stewert Arnold who works as political consultant in Diana Wallis’ office. I’m working on the assumption that the other two candidates are there as window dressing though they both have above average name recognition within the party. What has disappointed many though is that Diana Wallis MEP hasn’t put in for it. The rumour that she was had assumed the staus of fact and thus much more effort than usual was being put into the Euro list selection which is currently in progress. Stewert is also short listed for the Euro list.
Bercow should be deselected unless he is prepared to publicly renounce he will ever contemplate defecting.
Many people think he’s only biding his time, I’m one such.
It surely isn’t too much to expect to ask him to commit to the party which gets him elected and defacto provides his salary for up to the next 5 years ?
or ‘announce’ !
Just been interviewed by C4 for tonight’s news: they have a new poll taken entirely after Gordon’s speech. According to the interviewer, the figures are Labour 44%, Conservatives 33%, LibDems 13%.
You were saying about it being a terrible speech, chaps?
89, But surely, Tory Boy, the same could be said of all MPs?
91 I didn’t……….
It was devious, disreputable, disgustingly opportunistic and outstanding politics of the highest order.
Can we borrow him please ?
86:
Yes, Bercow’s a possibility. I wonder if GB put that stuff about families in his speech on purpose, so Bercow could say that’s what swung it?
92 Possibly so Augustus, possibly so…
Big can of worms there for sure.
I think you can make a special case for certain people who (fairly or unfairly) have gained an unfortunate reputation and are widely held as being to be ‘in the frame’.
Who knows, he might even want to in an effort to clear the air and put the sceptics to flight….
91 By whom? 13% for the Lib Dems is unbelievable.
91: ‘Labour 44%, Conservatives 33%, LibDems 13%’
In that case it’s those gullible Lib Dem idiots - yet again - who were taken in. Christ they’re easily led those people!
96. Deborah Mattinson perhaps…
..or was it a straw poll Nick did of his Broxtowe constituents? No clearly not as that would have been Lab 100 others 0
10,11,14: What anti-asylum stuff? And there’s nothing in the list at 14 that the voters I’m talking about would care much about. Obviously there are right-leaning LDs who will tactically vote Tory, but the national polling evidence is that LDs prefer Labour as second choice by around 2-1, and locally the Tories ceaselessly attack the LibDems because there’s a LD-Labour coalition on the council which works very harmoniously.
BlueMoon - I do think DC will make a good speech - set piece speeches are his thing. I also don’t think it will be enough to resolve people’s doubts, but we’ll see. It’s a good reason to wait with the election decision till the end of next week (who cares about daylight saving time).
Incidentally, the poll mentioned above shows the limitations of the Luntz approach. Luntz’s programme last night showed people generally indifferent to both the speech and Cameron’s reaction. That may be quite a common view, but doesn’t pick up swings of 5% or so smong wavering voters.
91 - is this among Channel 4 News viewers?
Of course, I fully expected a Brown Bounce after the conference speech…
91 - Did they bother to step outside the Conference Hall for that poll??
LibDems to sink to single digits after Cameron’s conference speech anyone?
91. Fair’s fair. 11% is a pretty damn impressive lead. Wow.
Obviously the public likes old-fashioned rightwing Tory policies.
One more poll anywhere near 11%, and I am sure Brown will go for it. 11% would massively increase his majority and could leave the Tories in terminal disarray. How will the Tories react if they are reduced by 50 seats or more? A split would be very possible.
The chance for Brown to thereby reshape party politics must be extremely tempting in itself.
I actually thought that the Quentin Davies defection was made at the wrong time by Gordon Brown if he sought massive impact.
Although announcing it just as he was taking office helped to start his honeymoon off, he did not really need the defection. He was going to be popular with the Labour Party and the press were always likely to give him some space and early support. Instead I felt that more damage would have been done to the Conservatives if it was announced, say a few months after Brown was in position or after a Conservative conference - that would have more impact, as it would have suggested that Davies had been won over by Gordon’s vision.
Not that I want to offer strategic advice to Gordon Brown!!
I asked the interviewer whether it was YouGov - the most plausible for a poll at this notice. He looked a bit uneasy and said yeah, right, YouGov. I wasn’t totally convined that he knew - the one thing he was sure of was that Labour’s lead had risen 5% over the previous poll, but when I pressed him he consulted his notes and gave me the figures above.
To be fair a poll taken the day after a leader’s speech is normally as good as it gets.
88. Yellow Submarine, thanks
102 In all likelihood, Cameron will get some sort of boost after his speech, so it’s probably best to wait to see polls on the weekend after the Conservative conference.
104. The numbers look very similar to the MORI poll
New thread - is this good or bad news for Brown?
104 - and it’s amazing that a third of the electorate still remember there is a Conservative Party, such is their anonymity at present. Although I see Hague has put his head above the parapet this afternoon to challenge Milliband to an EU Treaty TV debate (I despair - will they ever learn to shut up going on about Europe?!)
It would make thrilling viewing. Bet it would challenge the Question Time Labour Deputy Leadership for the lowest TV audience ever award.
A quick check shows the last YouGov was 39/33/16, so that fits with a 5% rise: Lab+5, Con nc, LD-3. Responds to the question at the head of the thread. But don’t ban me if it’s wrong - I’m just quoting what I was told!
91,
Never saw the speech live but it seemed strong earnest responsible.If rather ponderous compared to Blairs rhetorical excellence.
The section where he described his bad eye injury in his youth did resonate with me, and I suspect people who have suffered trauma in their or close families lives, and they realy do have to rely on the NHS without the luxury of choice.
The life chance that has given him to read the speech, and become PM is a testomony to such a brilliant concept, and if Labour never did anything else,historically this was a beacon to the world.
Like he said many of us at anytime can be in that position of a life changing event.
Mike - are you redesigning your picture frame to accommodate 11 Gordons or perhaps placing a cherry on top would suffice.
‘historically this was a beacon to the world’.
Indeed, which is no doubt why no other major industrialised country has copied the NHS model. What tosh.
Don’t know if this aids the debate.
Met two people today who voted Labour up to and including 2001, went Lib Dem in 2005.
Pretty upset about Thatcher at Downing Street and all the flag stuff yesterday.
Said will probably stay with Lib Dems.
I watched the speech in full yesterday. Its was good solid stuff but very socially conservative. One of the reasons I think our core vote may be quite resilient is the fact hes going so strongly on these sorts of issues. However he hasn’t yet played the two biggest cards to Lib Dem waiverers, an iraq withdrawl and ditching ID cards.
101.
“LibDems to sink to single digits after Cameron’s conference speech.? ”
Likely the only digits sunk will be to use the Chamereon as a multi-coloured bowling ball.
Brown doesn’t need the Lib Dem votes if he can chip away at the Tory votes instead. However, this might become more of a problem should the Conservatives get their conference right.