Did Brown get the headlines he wanted?
September 25th, 2007
Will this create instability amongst the the Tories?
Developments in the McCann story and the Indy’s idiosyncratic approach to tabloid journalism have kept Brown’s speech off many of the front pages this morning and I reproduce above those that I can find online that are making the event their main lead.
By far and away the most significant is the Sun which is continuing with its high profile campaign to get a referendum on the EU treaty. This is the second day in a row the top-selling paper has gone for Brown on the issue and this does not bode well for Labour should an October election be on the cards. The paper has created the slogan -“AN EU REFERENDUM. HE PROMISED IT. WE WANT IT”.
The main themes of what used to be the most traditional of Tory papers, the Times and Telegraph, focus on Brown appeal to Conservatives - no doubt doubt to try to create further problems for Cameron at his conference next week.
If Brown’s aim is to get the Tories off the centre ground then some of the coverage will help him.
But this is not without its own problems. Polly Toynbee, in the Guardian describes the frustrations of those within the Labour movement who are looking for something different from the new leader - “So how much change will the Brown era bring? Nothing in this speech signalled significant policy shift, only a change in emphasis. It was almost vegetarian in its lack of new beef, with not one bold stride into bullish new territory.”
The leader writer in the Times sums the speech up like this - “..All of which adds to the paradox of him as the Prime Minister. Three months into his tenure, the nation has more information about his agenda and life story but not much more about his mission. We appreciate that he is “serious” and that in serious times this is a virtue, but what exactly he is serious about remains ambiguous. The date of the next election (or its likely outcome) is not the real mystery of his conference. It is instead what a fourth Labour victory at the hustings would ultimately mean for the country.”
In the betting things have hardly moved. The latest Betfair price on a 2007 general election is 2.3-1
And so a new political day begins….
Mike Smithson
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Well done Mike. Those are very good points you make. Is it all getting a bit upside-down now?
Whoever thought that in Brown we would get an ultra-Tony Blair? Brown goes to the right of Blair, in a way we never thought possible. Mail readers delighted. Or is it all just a charade.
I’d have to say, we need to congratulate Brown’s spin doctors, as they have done an amazingly good job. Even Alistair Campbell was never this good.
An under-funded Government lab leaks the foot and mouth virus. Didn’t Brown underfunded it? And ignored a report requesting an increase in funding for the dilapidated lab after the last epidemic? Didn’t he also ignore a similar report after the last serious floods in 2005, and actually cut funds for flood defences? We saw what happened. These scandals were never really reported accurately on the front pages. Brown’s spin doctors are doing an amazing job.
The press just fell for the cover-up - putting on front pages this government claim that a nearby ‘vaccine factory’ owned by an American company somehow leaked a virus. We later discovered it actually produce the vaccine, and never possessed the virus in the first place! Brown’s spin doctors are doing an amazing job.
May be this is just part of the summer silly season. All the serious journalists went on holiday and they put the ‘interns’ in charge. We’ve all got to start somewhere after all. No one is born perfect.
Then there is the fiasco with Northern Rock. Labour pump primes the ‘debt machine’ to levels that are unprecedented in global economic history. We now have more debt then Europe and Africa combined. Highly leveraged Northern Rock is facing bankruptcy as northern house prices are beginning a big fall. Economic mismanagement of the money supply is the problem. Innaccurate inflation data and the creation of CPI (to undermine RPI) is the problem. Brown has his hands all over it (really he does, it was his personal decision to create this confusion of CPI vs RPI). Don’t blame the Bank of England. They set interest rates to treat the symptoms, government is the cause of the problems. And they report Brown as the hero of the hour. Brown’s spin doctors are doing an amazing job.
Others have covered this much better then me. Look around.
I agree with you that it could damage the Tories, but yes it might hurt Labour as well.
There’s been a lot of talk recently about “where is the left in Britain today?” and I realize that Tony Blair has never taken the party in a direction as blatantly ‘rightish’ as Gordon Brown seems to be. He managed to appeal to moderate conservatives but his rhetoric, I think, was always deliberately consensual, mainstream, pragmatic ‘center-leftism’ (the NHS, schools, community, fairness etc).
I think the focus on ‘Britishness’ and immigration (which I personally think are good issues, just don’t see his solutions) is new for a Labour party leader (Blair seemed to leave it to ministers, eg Blunkett/Reid). Will it work? It might not hurt his party (too dependent on him) but will the provocation become too much for the more PC, ‘liberal’ voters?
It’s no good attacking your opposition if you damage your base at the same time. Especially if you don’t have the record, and ‘genuineness’ to make that change in direction appear justifiable (not short-term political gain).
I agree with you that it could damage the Tories, but yes it might hurt Labour as well.
There’s been a lot of talk recently about “where is the left in Britain today?” and I realize that Tony Blair has never taken the party in a direction as blatantly ‘rightish’ as Gordon Brown seems to be. He managed to appeal to moderate conservatives but his rhetoric, I think, was always deliberately consensual, mainstream, pragmatic ‘center-leftism’ (the NHS, schools, community, fairness etc).
I think the focus on ‘Britishness’ and immigration (which I personally think are good issues, just don’t see his solutions) is new for a Labour party leader (Blair seemed to leave it to ministers, eg Blunkett/Reid). Will it work? It might not hurt his party (too dependent on him) but will the provocation become too much for the more PC, ‘liberal’ voters?
It’s no good attacking your opposition if you damage your base at the same time. Especially if you don’t have the record, and ‘genuineness’ to make that change in direction appear justifiable (not short-term political gain).
Does anyone know what a “progressive agenda” on Defence, is?
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/7011609.stm
Press reaction utterly underwhelmed. Times “heard it all before” Guardian “short on vision” Sun you see above. Dire IMO and will sink in as such over the next few days.
Swingvoter. I agree. Brown’s blatant pitching of his big tent on the far right of the political campsite has the potential to alienate as many traditional Labour voters as it has to win over “Gordon’s Conservatives”. Plus it doesn’t ring true. This conviction politician has a coat of as many colours as a certain chamaeleon is accused of having. The public have seen enough spin in the last few years to recognise it when they see it.
Test is whistling in the wind. I am no Brown supporter but it was a well judged speech which came across well on the TV clips and got the headlines he wanted. Brown will live with the Sun’s referendum campaign - I do not see it being an election issue. BTW, Mike, it is McCann rather than McCain.
6 Chips with everything!
James,
It is a matter of objective fact that the news reports in today’s papers are lukewarm at best. Anybody can look up for themselves the Times and Guardian’s leaders and comment and see the Sun’s front page.
O/T: Financial Services Authority asleep at the wheel on mortgages? http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/programmes/file_on_4/7010415.stm
Comment from the Mail:
Indeed, couldn’t much of his speech have come quite as naturally from a Conservative?
With unerring instinct, Mr Brown touched on the most pressing concerns of Tory sympathisers - drugs, gun crime, teenage drinking, uncontrolled migration, failing schools and filthy NHS wards.
He even adopted the traditional Tory vocabulary of ‘discipline’, ‘responsibility’ and ‘respect’, using the words ‘Britain’ or ‘British’ more than 80 times.
I just read the Telegraph leader, that’s horrible for Brown too. Only the Indie seems to have liked the speech. Thumbs down from the press corps.
Polly has a thoughtful, though disappointed, take on it.
http://tinyurl.com/385a4w
Her last two paragraphs are those of someone who realises that Brown will never fulfil her hopes; but accepting that this is the best she’ll get.
IMO another 5 years of Labour under Brown will have the effect of moving it permanently to a Christian Democrat position; we saw with Blair that he was closer to Aznar & Berlesconni, with Brown it’s Merkel. In old terms Labour would become the Tory party, the party of institutions and the establishment, leaving the Conservatives the Whigs position of free trade and individual responsibility - though Cameron’s problem is getting his party to recognise the shift in the political grounds. Not sure where there’s space for the Lib Dems except on the left of New Labour.
8 I think the Sun learned it’s lesson at the budget when it was made to look stupid over his ‘tax cut’.
I think this speech has done nothing other than unsettle some of the left who must wince at his language and made tories like me glad that we now know what Brown stands for - authoritarian state control wrapped up in the language of consumer choice with a dash of dog whistle racism for the ‘Enoch Dockers’ in Labour’s base. Brown’s National Party if you like.
Da Fink has my favourite comment on this
“The Prime Minister has just pledged that unless contract cleaners in hospitals meet the highest standards of cleanliness they will lose their contract. What’s the procedure at the moment, then?”
Reading this site since the speech yesterday is *so* depressing. There is hardly any objective analysis and debate - just petty rhetoric, personal abuse and point scoring. I was so annoyed at one point I even engaged in a little myself, to my shame.
I genuinely thought it was an excellent *Labour* speech. Since when was being firm on crime and hailing our county *right wing*? Why can’t we have a normal debate about things?
All we have had is post after hysterical post calling GB a “Nazi” amongst other things. And woe bedite anyone who disagrees with this hysterical tory consensus - you will be labelled a “nonce” or worse. I used to enjoy reading and participating in the life of pb.com, but I’m afraid I shall have to think twice because a few people with big egos have hijacked this site. And if you call them up on it, they use the “Jim Davidson” defence, “So, I called you a motherflipping cnut? Don’t you have a sense of humour? It’s PC gone mad, I tells you!”
Well, I’ve had enough.
14. Excellent
15 - “There is hardly any objective analysis and debate….I genuinely thought it was an excellent *Labour* speech.”
Sorry, therein lies your problem. Subjectively, you thought it an excellent speech. Whether being subjective or objective, the great bulk of opinion both here and in the press seems to take the view that it was dull, uninspiring - and to the extent it did provoke any emotion, it was perhaps a sense of uneasiness that he was straying into very unsavorary territory - for a “Labour” speech.
I thought the Sun headlines was the worst Brown could have got and I don’t think he was expecting it, well I wasn’t at any rate, i thought yesterdays headline was a warning shot and expected there to be a least a week of quiet before the next one.
15. It is probably considered right wing because fro years lefties used to tell us flying the flag was racist. For example there was a time in the late eighties early/mid ninties when the British flag hardly flew from Bury Town Hall for that reason.
15 - You’ll find that tories are the least likely to paint Brown as right wing for obvious reasons (they don’t see it as a problem). Those who are complaining most are the traditional left at being ignored and lib dem supporters who see this as an excellent opportunity to colonise the open ground.
15 RedFlump. Don’t let the party hacks chase you away !
Broadly speaking the more shrill they are then the more effective you or your party have been.
15 RedFlump - please re-consider. Two or three individuals have become over-excited over recent days, but it is the silly season with party conferences in full flow, plus the anticipation of an early GE. Stay with it - things will settle down under Mike’s careful guidance and occasional and necessary stick-yielding.
I’d still like an answer to my question - RedFlump you can’t complain about a lack of analysis when pertinent questions aren’t answered by anyone from the Labour side
as all drug dealers are evil would somebody mind explaining to me exactly how they are going to deport foreign ones? Gordon was very clear in his speech - they will be deported. As this will require numerous treaty opt-outs/derogations etc what is the timetable for this to happen?
there is no answer to the question because there is no intention of carrying out this ‘pledge’
15 - Also, I think people are mixing right wing with authoritarian, Brown is definitely the latter, hence the disdain with which he is treated by liberals.
I merely pointed out yesterday that it woyuld be useful to compare Brown’s words with Griffins as a political weapon. I may not agree with the direct comparison but, as a way of deflating the labour base, it’s a powerful direction to take.
Brown achieved nothing in this speech. Blair covered pretty much all of this during his tenure and never delivered it, and Brown will be a similar failure as Prime Minister.
http://lettersfromatory.wordpress.com/2007/09/25/what-a-gift/
13 “we now know what Brown stands for - authoritarian state control wrapped up in the language of consumer choice with a dash of dog whistle racism for the ‘Enoch Dockers’ in Labour’s base. Brown’s National Party if you like.”
Is Labour’s polling really telling tham that they have a slice of their electorate - the white working class - whose votes are still thought to be at risk of going to the BNP? Or are the mythical “Gordon’s Tories” he is trying to attract really those who the Tories are losing to the BNP? One of the features that has struck me in recent local by-elections where the Tories have done badly is the extent to which the BNP have done well. I don’t know if there is any work on how the transfer of votes has been made up, on any correlation of this. But it does seem that there is a risk for the Tories that the white working class vote it needs in the Midlands and the North-West in particular is being drawn away from them in the same way UKIP hurts them in the South.
The BNP seem to field proportionately more by-election candidates than they would at a GE, so there will be less opportunities for the BNP to benefit from this. But is this what underpins Brown’s tone yesterday - keeping Barking White Van Man onside whilst trying to win over the Nuneaton Nutter?
Is Gordon Brown a Captain Queeg ?
Meanwhile …. over at Mrs Dale’s Dairy, the champion udder puller has detailed the top non alligned blogs and …… drum roll ……. PB comes out top !!!!!
Mrs Dale say we are like the House of Lords …. mmhhhhh … full of sozzled, sleeping Scots ???? …… and we have the ear of the political lobby and many MP’s.
Let’s hope it stays that way and doesn’t become the repository of over-heated partizan trolls and their snivelling fellow travellers.
For what it’s worth, my reaction to Brown’s speech was: very Blairite in content (including the right-wing riffs), nothing new, but a different style.
It left a lot of right/centre ground open for Cameron and the Tories, along many of the lines of the policy reviews. Key themes would include individual responsibility, anti-authoritarianism, smaller government and the broken society. But are the Tories intelligent enough to see this?
And then there’s the issue of economic stability. During an October campaign, the credit crunch will unravel further and cause more problems for 3 main planks of the UK economy: housing, consumer spend and the city. We’ll have a better appreciation by the end of next month as to the stability of an economy built on a mountain of credit.
Any sign of any Tory reaction to the speech yet? Where is the devastating critique from Dave?
Is he in Rwanda again or something?
You just know that the Labour high command will be ready with their soundbites the minute Cameron finishes his big speech next week.
(And it HAS to be a BIG speech from him…)
27. Fine sentiments Jack, but surely a bit late in the day.
Red Flump echoes what our former regular contributor Bullseye said to me though he was specifically talking about seanT, who does go into abuse mode very quickly (Tory poster bluemoon got a dose of it yesterday). I see this as more of a problem for the site than the obvious spin by some posters, which we can agree with or shrug off. But it would be a pity if the site became dominated by that.
To address the concrete points briefly from this bloody mobile:
1.We are anxious on the left not to let the BNP colonise Britishness and to show that you can be patriotic without seeking racist soutions.
2. Reading the commnts here show that it’s factually untrue that Labour supporters are unhappy (stjohn excepted, and we know he really doesn’t like GB) and that Tories are unworried or even pleased by the Tory-embracing tones. Tories here sound annoyed and worried. They want us all to sound like Tony Benn, so they can safely patronise us.
3. On an early election, I’d say the odds remain 2-1 against, but November is gaining ground since it would allow a judgment of how people respond to the two party conferences.
Flump. While it’s fact that the press. Received the speech poorly, I do expect Lab will get a conference poll boost b/c of the saturation coverage.
30 ltr. Sadly at important political times there is a danger that the site is overwhelmed by party half wits.
However it’s up to the rest of us, when on-line, to repel the rabid drossers back to their normal habitat on ConHome and other sites where their bile is more appropriate.
Oh not again with Jack W’s claim to be non-partisan! “Our Gawd” help us!
34 Test. I’m unequivocal about being partisan with you. I just wish you’d disappear and ferment up your own test-tube.
31 Nick, I respectfully disagree.
We’ve all had our fair share of abuse over the years; people have got to be big enough to take it on the chin and fight their corner.
I think most people realise that it demeans the author far more than the target in any event.
Although I can’t remember the specific articles that upset Bullseye (who is an excellent poster)he was carrying a fair bit of personal baggage at the time and couldn’t surely have expected to have escaped without a bit of mickey taking.
I seem to recall that his Labour opponents in the run up to the May 2006 Council elections were far from generous about him themselves.
6 Chips with everything, then!
This is a betting site and we need less Tory spin and more expert analysis from Nick “We thought it was great in the hall” Palmer.
Labour’s deposit ‘guarantee’ starting to unravel…
Basically there is peanuts in the existing deposit insurance scheme. So guaranteeing a large volume of deposits such as in NR means either a) a massive levy on other banks, with negative knock-on effects for the economy or b) the taxpayer taking the hit directly (which schools and hospitals will lose out in that scenario, ho hum).
http://news.independent.co.uk/business/news/article2996169.ece
The speech as Tim on ConHome so accurately nails it, was statist.
It was illiberal and nationalistic. It included similar 5, 10 year pogroms that were a highlight of USSR.
Of course if Cameron said the same things about immigrants he would be accused by Labour and Lib Dems as “lurching to the right”.
If Cameron said the words Britain or British, 70 to 80 times he would be labelled as a flag hugging nationalist. But that is what Brown did.
The real question is that if we get a hung parliament, how can “liberals” get into bed with someone so statist?
31 - I suggest that Nick doesn’t go over to the BBC comments section on Gordon’s speech. The notion Brown peddled - as led by the BBC headline - was “I will not let you down”. It was clearly to try and drawn a line under the Blair years and start afresh with the Brown era. But it has received a hugely negative reaction. Nearly everybody in the first half-dozen pages of top comments is saying the same thing - “you already HAVE let us down!”. Many are citing the volte face on the Referendum.
http://newsforums.bbc.co.uk/nol/thread.jspa?sortBy=2&threadID=7468&edition=1&ttl=20070925091512&#paginator
Hardly a scientific sample, but the venom he arouses is surprising. As is the rejection of the idea that he represents something new. There were no supportive comments at all in the recommended top 50 that I could see.
Seems the Sun is tapping into something?
Having thought aboout it, I believe a lot of his speech was aimed at what might be termed as working class strivers (must learn the grouping names as that sound unintentionally snobby), who are drifting off to the BNP. They’re not overtly racist people but fall for the BNP spin that asylem seekers have better liestyles than them and their country isn’t theirs anymore.
It could certainly have a big effect in the semi rural seat I work in as the BNP scored many votes in Labour heartlands and are talking about and could well overtake the Lib Dems in 3rd place.
It was probably too subtle and I can’t see British jobs for British workers being believed. It’s a dangerous game Gordon Brown is playing at the moment. We know from his budget speeches that he trys to be too clever by half and is can backfire. When he runs into trouble (events), he may find leftie support as flaky as Tony Blair did.
36 Hi TB … hope you are keeping well.
On balance I’d have to agree with Nick P. You are correct that we should all be able to take some flak as well as give it. However the pleasure of PB has always been that despite differences the PB community has been able to police itself and know when a certain boundary has been crossed.
I’m afraid there have too many times recently when the trolls have usurped the site and some threads have been grim reading. It’s simply not possible for Mike Smithson to regulate the site 24/7 and I feel responsible regulars should help Mike maintain the ethos of the site when standards drop.
31 No chance of an answer to my question at 22 then? He made a clear commitment - how will it operate? When will it happen.
oh wait, it wasn’t a clear commitment it was utter tripe because it can’t happen. Please prove me wrong by answering the question or at least have the decency to accept it was ‘aspirational’ nonsnese.
26 yes
As speeches go, it was pretty pedestrian, but then thats not a bad thing, after the Blair years, the country wants to settle down.
Don’t forget the ‘boomers’ are now in their fifties and sixties, they’ve done with hyper-active, they want a bit of ‘dull and boring’
Brown’s tactic is to neutralise the Tory vote, not necessarily to attract it. By appearing as a non-threatening character, he can do enough, to keep those Tories, who don’t, ‘go’ for Cameron away from the ballot box.
There are probably enough Tories out there, who are not on board for project Cameron, who would like in fact to see it fail, in the hope they’ll get a return to a more traditional Tory Party, to make this worthwhile.
I listened to his speech. cleverly crafted. Pushed middle England buttons.
BUT
and it’s a big but. We have heard it all before… promises promises.
Delivery is the key. And delivery is what is not happening . Does the NHS need another 10 years of Labour reorganisation to get basics like clean wards? I would have thought sacking a few managers pour encourager les autres would have worked. I mean sacking , not promoting or shuffling sideways.
I’ll be interested to hear what the Opposition say . (I mean the LibDems of course, the Conservatives appear to have given up:-((
I am just reading that Gordon Brown has said that he may consider reversing the 24 hour drinking laws introduced by the Blair government.
Brown is selling himself as a conviction politician - if so why has his conviction that 24 hour licensing was acceptable (he was part of the government which accepted the policy within the last 18 months) but that conviction does not exist now?
If we suggest in the interests of argument he was always concerned about 24 hour drinking then he was either very weak in setting out the alternative case in government or did not carefully think about the impact of the policy.
Then again it could just be another example of spin. While he has handled the crises faced in recent months well, it is becoming increasingly obvious that he has few workable ideas for the country. It has been review after review, re-announced policy after re-announced policy, and policy u-turns from his own government. That is not conviction it is spin. Even Blair actually did something in government. Brown is in danger of looking as though he is just on one long campaign. He seems to be playing very well at the game of politics, but what about actually governing and leading the country?
This is one line of argument I would take if I was in David Cameron’s position.
43. I agree, this site, when I was a regular was known for its polite discourse the internets version of old friends discussing politics over a cup of tea (everyone disagrees but is friendly to each other). Its quite sad when that turns into a harsh name calling.
I don’t remember Bullseye containing any personal baggage.
Back on to the Brown speach. I thought it dull as some one watching in, something that Blair unfortunately wasn’t. I myself am a Christain but take great exception at being lectured on my faith and being British by someone 15 years ago was decrying it as facist.
I think the link to Forecast UK’s regional analysis should form a thread. Interesting information mixed with a bit of fun as Peter Snow might say, as I doubt the Lib Dems in Scotland will go down to 1 seat!
We need more betting and less fractiousness.
So with that in mind, and having pondered Gordon’s speech and the reaction to it, I am now convinced there won’t be an election this year - there’s £120 up on BF for anyone who disagrees…
Nick P - the “Britishness” angle is nothing to do with offering a “non-racist”, “BNP-lite” raft of policies.
It is designed purely and simply to deflect attention from GB’s Scottishness which is off-putting for English voters and more offputting the further south you go (the continuation of what started with his “Gaza’s goal against Scotland is one of my most favourite football moments” - yeah right), and so he can sound like a Daily Mail-reading Middle England voter.
Please don’t pretend it is anything else. Labour couldn’t give a toss about Britishness as evidenced by the policies it has actually implemented over the past decade.
Brown is trying to tap in to the goodwill that Blair initially had when he promised to put right “the mess that 18 years of Tory rule had left behind” (allegedly). Only problem for Brown is that he has been at the heart of domestic policy for the past 10 years.
We need a new broom. (And not a new Broon!)
43 Jack - the site needs “bite” otherwise it would become dull.
As regards your 3rd para, I’m sure Mike already receives support when it’s required.
49 - Where is this link?
‘Labour couldn’t give a toss about Britishness as evidenced by the policies it has actually implemented over the past decade’
Correct. The Tories job is now to highlight the huge gulf between Brown’s brownshirt rhetoric and the reality of what Labour has done in the last decade - and will continue to do if re-elected.
Guido is reporting Croydon Tories are on the brink of doing the decent and honourable thing and deselecting Pelling
43- I agree, however I’d also emphasise that Partisan screaming tends to have little effect, Personally I tend to just skip it and move on to the next comment, there are still nuggets arent there ?
I’d like to Single out Casino Royale who is a poster I have come to respect in the past few months and hadn’t previously noticed so its not all doom and gloom
NicK P summed it up a few weeks ago when he said something along the lines of ” This site doesn’t work when we try to convince each other.. ” thats basically it for me .
I tend to believe that we dont always express what we think we are expressing, Shrill political ranting is a good example,
53 165 iirc previous thread. Annoyingly though it lumps the South West and Wales together and they have rather different voting patterns
46
We have indeed heard it all before. And the big question is certainly HOW will he deliver his vision.
But it was still a good speech.
He’s delivering the same old lines and still managing to portray an aura of change.
And he knows he doesn’t really have to flesh out his vision because Cameron won’t either (and Brown’s weightiness becomes an advantage here).
12 - indeed it’s more and more obvious that the LD’s only place is to the left of Labour. Cable and Campbell seemed to be beginning to get that last week, and a lot of the activist base is there anyway. But it puts a large number of existing seats under untenable pressure and so we’re likely to see a continuation of the classic LD balancing act (or parliamentary party mutiny)
53.http://www.forecastuk.org.uk/ Midlands figures cheered me up.
55. Time to take the whip away as well.
(Back again - just can’t keep away!) - for me, the most powerful part of the speech was when he (implicitly) nailed Cameron on his marriage tax break proposals. He is dead right - ALL children should be helped, not just those from certain sorts of families.
52 PfP. There’s “bite” and then there’s mauling and beheading that overcomes the site at times.
Mike does receive support and recently we had “ukpaul” manfully doing a Canute as a tide of trolls attempted to swamp the site. The danger is we lose regulars (like Andrea recently) and PB becomes like too many political sites - a discussion of the deaf !
Bob Sykes You are not going to get a lot of reaction from Dave because to do so would be to do what Brown wants: to move on to his agenda and to derail the Tory conference agendas.
Cameron can leave the critique of Brownism to the press and anoraks until the Tory conference starts and then, in their own time and with their own agenda, take it apart.
59 Out of interest is an MP automatically expelled upon conviction or does the House have to do it for him if he won’t go. IIRC the last MP expelled was the atheist Bradlaugh
60 - glad you’ve returned RedFlump! I do see your point on marriage tax break thing but can’t help but feel it’s a line of attack that won’t really resonate anywhere, and in any case it won’t really help in the pursuit of those Gordon Conservatives?!
Not seen the Frank Luntz report on Newsnight discussed on here, for those that didnt see it it was a focus group type thing looking at the reaction of a group of uncommitted voters to GB and DC, whilst there are all usual cautionary words about small groups and drawing large conclusions it was interesting. It confirmed what has become common currency recently ( and presumably the same as labour’s own focus groups ) that GB is seen as serious, hard working, the sort of PM you would trust in difficult times whilst DC was seen as rather lightweight even if many of his criticisms of the government rang true however it was clear that the tories were still distrusted and there was no perception that they might have any solutions to the problems they are highlighting.
For me the most interesting point ( if rather dispiriting ) was the “plague on both your houses” view that most seemed to hold. This does seem to fit in with the level of support the BNP, UKIP etc seem to be getting recently in local byelections. It presumably also makes GB’s speech more understandable as in trying to connect to “ordinary” people and their concerns. It also fits GB’s strategy of appealing to the section of the electorate represented by the views of the Daily Mail. GB has long been a master of the technique of saying one thing to the Mail whilst in the background being the most redistributive Chancellor since the Atlee government.
This does not seem to me to hold out many positives for DC, if he is seen as rich, privileged and liberal while GB is seen as ordinary, hard working and socially conservative ( very much the buzz word on the media last night ).
43 - Time was when this august site was compared to an Oxbridge common room where ablatives were absolute and pronouns invariably relative. Now, for pity’s sake, we allow alumni of the LSE to partake
Not surprising the place has gone to the dogs…
31. In a word, Nick, boll0x. You are an MP who wields power over me; moreover you belong, in my mind to an essentially dishonest party that is about to betray the country in the most fundamental way. By denying us the vote on Europe you promised.
All I have to counter this is my ability with words. So if I call you a P WE Herman impersonator, from time to time, you should think yourself lucky. Given what you and your lot have done in Iraq, given what you are trying to do to MY country, I think I am actually quite restrained.
Until your party starts fulfilling its solemn manifesto promises you can expect more of the same. I’m not gonna slap you all on the back and say it doesn’t matter. It does. I care. End of.
Anyway I’ve been nice to you since our last bust-up so don’t provoke me, or we will have another one of our scuffles - most of which you seem to lose, as I recall.
On the larger question of my general polemics and those of others - all I can say is that I came second in the poster-of-the-year competition - well ahead of you, and well ahead of any other lefties on here. Clearly my robust style appears to some people, perhaps it appeals more than the mealy-mouthed spin disguised as mature debate that you generally exude.
And of course, I’m sure if anyone got really out of hand, Mike S would intervene. He runs a good show.
61- is Andrea gone for good? I wasn’t aware of that.
59 that Forecast UK site is riveting. If their methodology stacks up then it paints a far different picture than the general consensus that the Tories will sweep the South East at the next election but continue to struggle to make any inroads north of the Watford Gap. If anything, they’re painting a reverse picture, which might well be better news for the Conservatives in the long run (even though the headline poll numbers are unarguably weak).
67 iirc the real loser is always seanT
63. I think it has to be a sentence of over 1 or 2 years. Don’t think he’ll get that but he should lose the Conservative whip (doubt they’ll be a reinstate campiagn!!)
68 - Chris, Fortunately no, he was lured back (he didn’t really want to be alone) after an outpouring of love here.
15
‘Reading this site since the speech yesterday is *so* depressing. There is hardly any objective analysis and debate - just petty rhetoric, personal abuse and point scoring. I was so annoyed at one point I even engaged in a little myself, to my shame.’
Could it be you that’s out of sync as the newspapers don’t rate Brown’s speech either?
How are we supposed to be objective about the contents of a speech that’s been recycled so many times and has already been analysed and commented on before;apart from a few bones thrown at potential Tory voters the only thing new was 10,000 Blackberries for the police?
71 If another MP puts down a motion to expel another MP though I thnk all it takes is a simple majority in the House and that’s it
61. Jack. Why, what happened to Andrea?
Test You are quite right if the posting evidence is to be believed. Jack W is a new Labour cheerleader. But if you point it out you simply get abused in his ‘witty’ way.
*Stirs on the red benches and looks forward to a heavy lunch with claret and half a bottle of port*
Well done to all on Pb.com gaining the top spot in Iain Dale’s “I take the cash while others write the text of a guide to Political Blogging 2007″ http://www.iaindale.blogspot.com/
As Benedict knows, blogging can be a lonely life, so to get such recognition is a bit like shaking hands with the late Queen Mum. Indeed I have often thought of Iain as the Queen Mum of blogging…
Perhaps I should get professional help.
I reckon it was a clever short term speech by brown to reassure middle england on core concerns such as crime and health with a bit thrown in about child payments and maternity leave.
Long term he has set himself up for a fall though. Bearing in mind there are over 7000 foreign nationals in our prisons the idea that foreign national drug dealers will be deported is farcical at best. I think he has made promises that could become unstuck which may well undermine his credibility over time. It just depends what sort of time game he is playing.
with re: this site, it is a bit Tory dominated at the moment but the personal abuse comes from all sides and it would be nice if that was toned down as it is unsavoury at best
56. “I’d like to Single out Casino Royale who is a poster I have come to respect in the past few months and hadn’t previously noticed so its not all doom and gloom”
You are too kind!
However, in all honesty, I can be a stroker too sometimes.
Depends what I’ve read in the papers, what I read here and what sort of day at work I’ve had
50. Andy D. Yes. Politicalbetting.com doesn’t always do exactly what it says on the tin. Politicalramping, politicalvituperation, politicalspinning would all compete at times for the Ronseal award.
More betting please.
31. Nick Palmer puts a 2007 election at 2/1 and he’s never far away on Labour party matters. I agree with Andy D though. 2007 feels less likely to me this morning than yesterday. Brown’s speech has been fairly well received but was no barnstormer and is probably an insufficient platform from which to launch a General Election. Fascinating though and certainly now too close to call with any certainty.
This was clearly a very carefully calibrated speech, intended to offer something for everyone. Obviously we can disagree that is actually offered anything to anyone! But as I see it, the “Core Labour” people were offered some excellent education initiatives (one-to-one tuition etc. (Loved the little personal vignette about going to the local primary and secondary schools - unlike Dave and Tony!) and also the extension of paid maternity leave to 9 months (which will also apear to the Aspirationals).
As we all saw from the reaction in the hall, strong crime rhetoric is not unpopular. Indeed, the average Labour voter would probably like to string up child killers as much as the blue-rinse brigade. To state that everyone must play by the rules is obvious.
I was actually waiting for the traditional “bash the tories” section, but I’m actually glad Gordon didn’t do it. Cameron will probably slag Gordon off to high heaven (so much for “no more Punch and Judy”) and will be cheapened as a result.
We all forget that as political nutcases we sometines over-analyse and overestimate the effects of such-and-such a headline or a particular phrase in a speech (usually taken out of context). All in all, I believe this speech will go down well with the general public - which was, after all, the target audience.
65 - Fascinating post !
“This does not seem to me to hold out many positives for DC, if he is seen as rich, privileged and liberal while GB is seen as ordinary, hard working and socially conservative ( very much the buzz word on the media last night ). ”
I think this is exactly what GB is attempting, And I think you are right in implying that ‘Britishness’ is very much about attempting to connect with the ‘none of the above’ group.
Sure its partly about GB being Scottish but there is much more than that - GB is keen fan of American politics and It’s from there that his interest in patriotism stems.
I think some commentators believed GB’s’Patriotism’ was a failed experiment like his ‘arctic monkeys ‘ moment but I believe this is a key theme for him that he will push relentlessly.
67 - My goodness, the ego has landed.
Wasn’t there a Tory MP banned during the Thatcher years, think he may have held one of the Bournemouth seats, memory a bit hazy.
75 Admiral. Andrea became involved in a spat with “Casino Royale” but fortunately was persauded to return.
As Andrea said PB should in the main be a pleasure not a battleground.
67 seanT. You did indeed come second but overall you were heavilly outpolled by the sensible tendency on the site. I also note you were “moderated” last night by Mike.
I often enjoy your many of your posts. Hovever too often you seem to have only one speed of invective. A shame IMO.
76 Witan.
I think one example of personal abuse we are discussing here is when I said to Blue Moon, last night:
“go puke in a firebucket, you EU-loving nonce”
On reflection, that was probably a little TOO robust. I was halfway through a bottle (but only halfway) and feeling especially exuberant after my offer from 20th Century Fox (regular posters will understand).
However, here’s my problem - and I’m going to be honest here. I regard Europhiles like Bluemoon - and others - who want to take us into the Constitution without a referendum as…. TRAITORS.
That is honestly what I believe. I think they are traitors, quislings and the most terrible turncoats. I think they are doing the worst thing a man can do - betray their country and their people.
Now, many of you on here will think this attitude is hysterical and mad. And you have a point. Sometimes even I think it is mad. But it is what I honestly believe (and I am not alone). So when I talk about these “traitors”, what am I meant to do? Lie? I can’t lie. It’s what I think.
In the end what I do is get hostile but try and do it in a witty or at least engaging manner. That way I get my feelings off my chest, at least tacitly, without reducing the site to a series of tedious catcalls - traitor, obsessive, traitor, obsessive, etc.
I repeat - I know this seems bonkers to lots of people. But this is how I feel. Europe does that to some people. For others it is animal rights, or the bin men, or foxhunting, or smoking, or taxes, or Iraq (er, OK, I get a bit angry about that too). We all have our political G spots.
It would be a shame if we weren’t allowed to get passionate and angry. The site would lose a lot of its appeal. So I shall continue to tell Blue Moon to “go puke in a firebucket”, but I may drop the “nonce” bit. For a while. Because if I didn’t call him this I would be calling him a traitor. Which isn’t very nice at all.
43 I am well thanks Jack as I trust are you.
Apart from watching the long predicted car crash happening in slow motion before our very eyes …………..
80 - glad you agree stjohn. One thing I have noticed this morning is that there is £34 available to lay on Jul-Dec 2008 up to 19/1.
I think that barring something that’s beyond our collective ability to forsee, there’s just no chance of this - in my estimation, less than a 1% chance, which makes a 5% return a fair one, even allowing for inflation over the next fifteen months. If I didn’t entail locking up over six hundred pounds for over a year, I’d cheerfully lay it all. Anyone feeling braver than I?
I saw a bit of My Sweet Gawd’s speech on Newsnight last night, and I was amazed by the “greyness” of it all. No razzamatazz, no fireworks, no particular bursts of oratory, no obvious claptraps, just a long recital of things that it would be difficult to disagree with. And then it struck me: Brown’s role model is not Lenin or Blair or Kennedy or Wilson - he is modeling himself on Clement Attlee. Trustworthy, unexciteable, managerial, but patently honest. Or at least, he is going to try to be!
Grey is the new Brown.
87 TB. Is that greenish blue car crash ??
You just have to live with people firing spin at each other. Exchanges of views are expected, especially when some people’s key purpose is to get their party’s line over or just poke a stick at the other parties. When you have that kind of situation then things are going to end up in pie fights. Just how it is and it can be scrolled over otherwise I’m not sure what can be done about it other than the current self regulation.
If people don’t have minds of their own and simply follow party lines, what do you expect? As a bit of a laugh I posted yesterday before the speech that all those who knew what they were going to say anyway, say it before the speech began and be ahead of themselves. Nobody picked up on it but unremarkably enough not one of those who unerringly trot out party spin from their respective side of the political fence actually said anything other than what you’d expect.
A good example of this is how in the event of an election overseas people take sides purely based on ‘are they left or are they right’. Thats it.
Those who complain about how terrible it all is are some of the people least interested in betting anyway.
To take an example, about a week and a bit ago the ever reliable Caveman put up the next Japanese PM market. About 5 minutes of internet research and posts back and forth suggested that the bookies had the market wrong and the now winner was sitting at 11/4. How many people active on the board at the time read it, and how many people who were in a position to do so took advantage? People can of course just miss the opportunity or decide its not for them but what I’m getting at is how many people actually cared to read it at all in the middle of the usual bun fight.
Just as an aside, I said it a couple of days ago and I’ll say it again, watch Burma. Something different is happening there this time.
86
So you finished off the other half over breakfast?
How the latest yougov sees voters reaction to Brown.
http://tinyurl.com/2ot2gl
re 44. Kingbongo it was the same with the hospital deep cleaning. it will achieve nothing but the pupulation at large thinks it will and thus it will prove popular. When the time comes everyone will forget that he ever said it.
89 Augustus. Clem come Baldwin/Bonar-Law me thinks.
Our Gawd is intent on boring us into submission !!
94 refer you to link at 59 for interest/views
re 63/71. If it’s a sentence of over 1 year he will get chucked out. That’s why the naughty MEP hasn’t got chucked out because it’s UK law.
63: Only three MPs heve been expelled in the last century - Horatio Bottomley after corruption for fraud, Garry Allighan (for contempt of Parliamentary privilege after claiming that other MPs got drunk and sold stories to the press, a committee conducted a investigation and found that largely it was only him who did) and Peter Baker after conviction for forgery in 1954.
John Stonehouse probably would have been expelled, but the debate was postponed so as not to prejudice his trial, and by the time Parliament returned from recess he had resigned.
96 Does it have to be actually over 1 year or would a suspended sentence for more than that chuck out an MP
re 96
What are the sentencing guidelines in a case like this? Is it likely to be more than a year in the clink?
94 Thanks, Jack, I see what you mean about Baldwin. But unfortunately, I have no mental image of Bonar Law at all, so I cannot make the comparison. All I know about him is that he was Scottish and Boring and a Tory, so I suppose Gawd qualifies on at least 2.5 out of the 3.
99. Can’t see it making it to court to be honest Ant. A few quiet words and that sort of thing.
101. Woody662 if it’s now in the hands of the police, the only way it can stay out of court is if there isn’t enough evidence or/because the victim refuses to testify?
100 Augustus. Only 0.5 for boring !!
Decent article on B-L in wiki :
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bonar_Law
Note, he was a Conservative Glasgow MP !! those were the days.
101
What if the wife decides to press assault charges?
How the Daily Mash saw Brown’s speech
http://tinyurl.com/2tslom
101 / 104 - Whatever about charges being pressed I would have thought the “Croydon voters are chavs” headline in the local paper would do for him at the next election anyway. But many of the comments on the website are surprisingly supportive:
‘Pelling looks down on Croydon voters, calls them “chavs”, and considers the local NHS hospital not good enough?
Hey, I’m beginning to warm to the guy!’
102/104, I would bet the wife doesn’t testify. Just instinct.
91 Good post, Yokel. I also particularly enjoyed yesterday’s comment about partisan posters getting their comments on The Speech out of the way before it was delivered. Few noticed, and the first 20 or so posters after the speech were blissfully unaware that you had sent them up royally.
There’s been a bit of PB introspection recently and whilst I too would like to see more analysis from a betting perspective, we have to remember these are dogs days for political betting and have been for a while. It will change, especially if we get into GE mode. On that subject, there seems to be a PB consensus that it’s about 2/1 against 2007.
I watched The Speech and thought it good but boring. It did not sound to me like the speech of a man contemplating a snap election, so maybe I would give you 5/2, but of course that could change and it would be perfectly reasonable for Gordon to wait and see what happens next - at the Tory Party conference, in the polls, and in the Press.
Press responses seem to have been OKish, apart of course from the EU-obsessed Sun. Again, they didn’t appear to encourage a snap election, but didn’t rule it out either.
I’ll be busy over the next few days and am then off to South Africa for ten days. Be good whilst I’m away. The Site is as good as ever with some excellent new posters (even if they do have silly names like ‘Casino Royale’
) and I look forward to catching up in October.
All the best
Lol coldstone!
108. Pierre le Punteur. Have a great holiday. Fabulous place South Africa, especially the bush.
110 Thanks SeanT.
Any particular bush?
103 Thanks for the link, Jack. I am amazed that he was able to become Prime Minister with such an untrustworthy-looking moustache.
69
‘59 that Forecast UK site is riveting.’
Agree it was a real eye opener,the Scottish figures were very close to those mentioned by Marcia at the weekend.
Mike,any chance to have this as a regular slot?
111. Not George Dubya.
The Kruger National Park is amazing. I saw a lionhunt there. Two lionesses actually jumped over our car as they stampeded some wildebeest. You don’t see THAT on the Caledonian Road.
90 That’ll be the one Sir !
114 Noted, with thanks. I’ll be in Johannesburg/Swaziland/Durban - partly work, mainly R&R. Kruger visit should be perfectly possible.
113 Can you separate the Wales from the west Country figures. They were pretty good for May as well, albeit with a tendency to underestimate the Tories. The large number of SNP gains and Lib Dem rout indicates caution though
65 - You missed out in the Luntz focus group summary that the audience also felt that Cameron best represented the future. On who they would vote for, I seem to remember it being pretty close, with a resounding ‘plague on both your houses’ thrown in to the mix as well.
113
John, the Scottish figures certainly are interesting in the scale of SNP support. With the Scottish Parliament as a platform for their press coverage during an election campaign (often difficult in the past), it’s a real headache for Brown up there and is the main reason why a 2007 election must surely be out of the question.
Where there ever likely to be any problems at this Conference ?
I didnt see the GB speech until last night and found it dull but effective.
But it didn’t really need to be anything else did it ?
I think what the hysteria over an election is masking (and helping)is that we knew from August onwards that the Lab conference was going to be pretty uncontroversial and about adding to GB’s Brand.
The pressure was going to be on Cameron and that is what a straightforward Lab conference adds weight to, I’m fascinated by what approach Cameron will take.
Some of What Brown has done or said seems calculated to force Cameron into either ‘Flip Flopping”lurching’ or emphasising policy areas that his own party are unhappy with .
I’d guess Labour will be ready to compare with last year’s Tory conference to emphasise any percieved ‘Flip flops’ ‘lurches’ or inconsistencies.
116. Yes, that’s where the Kruger is. If you haven’t been before you should definitely go if you can. I think the Kruger is probably the best place in the world to see the Big Five (you know - lions, elephants, leopards, waterbuffalo, rhino).
And you can just drive in with your own car. And accommodation is incredibly cheap.
The food sucks though.
I can’t say the speech was either that good, or that bad. I think it should go down well with middle income voters, and be quite poorly received by some wealthier socially liberal voters - which presumably is what GB intended.
I’d be delighted if foreign criminals were deported, as GB suggests - but we know it won’t happen - and that’s what the Conservatives should be highlighting.
WRT BNP, yes, I think some Northern and Midlands working class Tories will vote for them in preference to Cameron’s Conservatives. Quite clearly, the BNP pulled votes off the Conservatives in Nuneaton (as they pulled them away from Labour in Copeland).
109 PtP. Enjoy your break old gal.
I’ll expect you’ll have a whole new wardrobe soon !!
Oh god, long distance flying. I could barely bear the thought of it, the boredom. How long does it take to get to South Africa?
Sean T you can get more high powered wildlife action in my street in Belfast. Cats chasing birds, dogs chasing cats…dramatic stuff. Bill Oddie, the unfunniest Goodie himself, should set up a hide in the street. It gets really scary as well, especially when some moggie hiding under your car jumps out from below in the middle of the night when you open the driver’s side door.
re 118 with Cameron representing the future another reason for Brown to go now and get a chance at delivering a fatal blow.
Where can I find the best forecast for the Scottish MPs?
123. He’ll be bringing back Nelson Mandela style shirts…..
Bonar Law was, like GB, a son of the Manse; he was extremely dour, and melancholic. His father was from Ulster, and he was born in and spent his early childhoos in Canada, so those places provides an important part of his make-up, particularly his fervent Ulster unionism. Baldwin was no orator, but was very good at projecting an emollient, inclusive style in his speeches, which was vital in keeping the ex-Liberal vote onside (and repairing the damage from Bonar Law’s partisan harshness).
I’d not come across Forecast UK before - it makes interesting reading. Does anyone know who/what they are? Anthony?
My reading of this is that there is an ‘air’ war and a ‘ground’ war going on here.
Labour is winning the air war at the moment, positive media coverage, negatives for their opponents. However, this forecast points to them losing out in the ground war. I think this stems from a number of causes:
Loss of activists during the late Blair years - in particular, Labour have lost thousands of Councillors. As a former Tory Councillor, I know just how much local campaigns depend on them.
Loss of committed supporters - once people have drifted off, it is difficult to lure them back. Many Labour backers drifted off to LDems over the war, to the Tories over failed promises and th appeal of a fresh face, and to ‘Won’t Vote’ through disillusion. Gordon is pitching for them to return, but they will remain ’swingers’.
So, when Gordon appears to be winning the air war, the drift will be towards him, but it may have shallow roots.
117,
Sadly, we take our figures from other polling associations, so we are limited by how they present their figures. At the moment ComRes and Populus don’t separate Cymru from the West Country so we can’t do that. Of course, if we had seperate Welsh Westminster polls we could probably have a go at separating out the two areas.
Thanks guys for all the interest you’ve shown to my analysis over the past day. I’ll reiterate again what I’ve said on the previous thread and on my web page - the regional figures are based on smaller samples and therefore less reliable. However, they do give a broad picture of what is going on across the country and may lend some support to the idea that “Brown’s Conservatives” might actually exist.
124. Flyingwise, South Africa isn’t so bad actually. Because there’s no jet lag - it’s in the same timezone as the UK, just the other side of the world.
Everything they say about the African bush is true. It’s spellbinding. You never know what’s going to happen next. I trod on a serval one afternoon. It’s the most unboring place I have ever been. And I’ve been to a lot of places.
That said, Belfast in the 80s was quite unboring, but perhaps not in the right way.
123 Thank you, Jack. Always thought I’d look fetching in leopard skin - provided leopard is actually dead.
129 Peter, my experience is extremely similar to Sean F’s earlier.
I see absoultely no evidence locally of ‘Brown Conservatives’
There is though a drift to ‘what’s the point/abstention/UKIP/ or BNP’ taking place however.
131 PtP. Mmhhhhh … the Bet Lynch look !! … don’t forget the ear-rings.
Peter O
I’m afraid it’s not just the size of your samples that makes your figures suspect. AFAIK the pollsters the