Is this good or bad news for Brown?
September 25th, 2007
-
Could a Dutch referendum have acted as a shield?
News from the Hague within the past hour could have a big impact on UK politics. For as can be seen from the EU Observer report the chances of there being a referendum in the Netherlands on the EU treaty now look very slim indeed.
It will be recalled that the Dutch rejected the EU constitution in a vote in 2004 which took the pressure off Tony Blair who had promised to put the issue to the electors here.
If the Dutch referendum had gone forward it would have given an added boost to the current high profile campaign for a vote in the UK. Yet in a way it could put more pressure on the government here. For it would have been much easier for Brown to have made a U-turn over his original rejection of the plan if the Dutch were planning a vote as well. The British would not have been the sole blockers of the EU changes.
Now Britain is on its own and the Murdoch press is not going to put its attack dogs back in their kennels.
Mike Smithson
MessageSpace Advertising
I think this is mildly good news for GB. The fewer referendums the better from his point of view. He won’t be on his own. The Irish will definitely have one and so may the Danes. Perhaps the Poles will too when they’ve had their GE.
This is not a surprise after the Dutch Govt. decided last week that it would not hold a referendum. The party was expected to follow suit.
So now we face the prospect of high-stakes International Arm-wrestling - The Scot v The Aussie. Who will back down? Who is the most stubborn? Expect blood vessels to be popping on their foreheads for that one.
Perhaps now is the time for Cameron to lob a grenade into the proceedings - announcing his intention to privatise the Beeb’s TV services… If that didn’t get him Murdoch’s support, nothing can.
Another country, another Labour party which doesn’t believe in democracy.
Getting back to the chat in the previous thread about a new poll with Labour 11% ahead. As Nick says all fieldwork was since Brown’s speech, would it really be possible to get a representative sample in that short a space of time. I’m sure it must costs whoever commissions it a bit!
Undoubtedly bad news - no scapegoats to hide behind - unless any other country feels it should have a referendum - have France and Ireland made their minds up yet?
I never thought we should have a referendum until the french and dutch had held one, because it would be a colossal waste of money to have a vote when there was a chance that the treaty/constitution whatever would have to be re-negotiated having failed in a referendum somewhere - but if this is not the case, then most certainly we should have one ourselves.
But it’s another cnsideration for Oct/Nov sadly - if Europe becomes a major election issue could it rip the tories open at their most sensitive points?
Murdoch’s never been so clearly defined on the EU in his past endeavours which were mostly supportive of Blair a europhile.
There is a referendum going on right now on the EU Constitution in Ireland. Funny how that never gets much of a mention. It doesn’t fit the ‘there’s no need for a referedum’ narrative.
A whole thread dedicated to Europe!
But I have to feed and bathe my daughter. You are saved the full-on Thomas rant. Mike, in future, please post about Europe at non-baby-feeding times….
Actually, post whenever you like. Maybe it’s time I moved on from Europe - and from this blog. Everyone knows how I feel. This is the final straw - such a depressing story: right across Europe governments are just trampling the people. The Dutch, the French - just completely ignoring the results of their own referendums.
Here in Britain a government breaks its most solemn promise - and no one really cares.
It is utterly sad, and disgraceful. We are ruled by verminous careerists, and hypocritical dimwits.
But… what should I care? The lights may be going out across Europe, no gives a F about democracy apart from the Sun (of all people) - but I have a beautiful baby daughter, a book that’s just sold to Hollywood, and I’m being helicoptered into Monte Carlo on Thursday.
F*** it. F*** it all. I’m happy, even if my country is being trashed. I shall pay my bet to Jack in my euro royalties on Millionen Frauen Warten Auf Dich.
So. I think I may bow out quite soon. Maybe very soon. My regards to my many pb chums, and a bucket of ordure over the europhile quislings.
Ave atque vale, pb.com.
There is a referendum going on right now on the EU Constitution in Ireland. Funny how that never gets much of a mention. It doesn’t fit the ‘there’s no need for a referedum’ narrative.
It’s not an issue because it’s been long established that all EU Treaties covering Ireland involve amending the constitution, automatically requiring a referendum. Ahern can’t choose not to have one. In most EU countries, the referendum issue isn’t so hard and fast.
On the C4 poll: a conference bounce should have been factored into everybody’s expectations, so no surprise there. What will be interesting is how far the Conservatives can make a difference next week.
How can this be good news. Another Government runs scared of it’s people’s opinions. If Brown said there is no need for a referendum because another EU country who had rejected the constitution is scared to have another referendum, then his credibility would be shot.
Remember the idea that was spun about Brown being a Eurosceptic!!!
6 - “There is a referendum going on right now on the EU Constitution in Ireland.”
No there isnt.
10 - Yes. The referendum will take place sometime next year, but Ahern hasn’t named a date.
Put Nick Palmer’s C4 poll into Baxter and the Lib Dems are left with one seat! Anyone know what seat that would be?
11 - It doesnt even have to take place next year (or technically at all). That said I am 99% sure there will be one (the anti-treaty side would never let there not be one and they have a Supreme Court judgement on their side) and I would place a large bet on it happening next May or June.
12
“Anyone know what seat that would be?”
Mark Oaten’s?
Seriously, anyone who thinks that Baxter is more sense than Scientology will probably find themselves in a long NHS waiting list for a dirty ward.
http://eureferendum.blogspot.com/2007/07/irish-troubles.html
There is a real possibility of the eu treaty being rejected in Ireland according to Dick Roche, Ireland’s Europe Minister. Farmers, business and trades unions are against the Treaty, and Murdoch’s campaign is strong there too as The Sun is widely read.
Being Irish, they will demand a lower Corporation tax rate, a better deal for farmers and it might get through on a second vote. Sinn Fein are running a strong campaign against on both sides of the border.
The only place the Irish referendum is not happening is in the British media.
12 - It would be Thornbury and Yate, Steve Webb’s seat.
Andrew Pelling MP has been ’suspended’ by CCO. Not quite sure what that means in practice.
17. I think it means he spends a week at home watching daytime TV, DVDs and playing computer games then comes in to have a word with the headmaster and back to normal lessons after that
Party conferences usually give a party a temporary boost. A few weeks after the Tory conference, polls will be back to normal.
I shouldn’t think the Lib Dem conference helped them much this year though. It was all about whether Ming was up to the job. Exactly the message they weren’t hoping for.
It’s really good to see Milliband put some distance between him and Blair. Artfully done too, by the sounds of it, without being written up as hanging Blair out to dry - which would have been perfectly permissable given the content.
15 - “The only place the Irish referendum is not happening is in the British media.”
The only place it is happening is in your head. There is no referendum yet and no campaign. I am sure there will be (it’s only a matter of legal opinion that there *has* to be) and I’m sure it will be hard-fought (not that the result matters they’ll only have to vote again if they get the answer wrong first time). I’m not sure that it has very many implications for the UK at all.
Btw Murdoch does not have that much influence in the Republic - our home grown press barons have far more clout.
the C4 poll is YouGov, here is the url
http://tinyurl.com/2jtgxs
sorry if anyone already posted this and i missed it
I think it’s hard to defend not having a referendum. People want one and they want to vote against the government. In a democracy they’re supposed to get their way.
But it’s a real problem with the design of the EU institutions at the moment. Fairly obviously, you aren’t going to get 25 countries to agree on everything - that’s exactly what the reform’s about. And therefore you can’t have a ratification system involving 25 separate referenda. Wouldn’t it make more sense if we had a single, Europe-wide referendum, which would mean that the EU could be reformed when necessary? Most of the eurosceptics’ strongest arguments against the EU relate to things that can’t be sorted out with such a daft voting system. For example, the shocking Common Agricultural Policy can’t be scrapped, despite the fact that it puts third world farmers out of business at vast cost to the European taxpayer, because France and one or two other countries have a veto.
It should all have been worked out before the latest expansion, when at least only 15 countries had to agree.
What happened to Andrew Pelling? What’s he done?
did anyone see c4 news then a further surge in Labour support but a post conference crash for the lib dems…. anyone got any news on this new poll…. any ideas anyone?
23 - He has been arrested (and released on bail) for assaulting his wife, who has left him, given some damaging interviews to a Sunday tabloid, and looks certain to prosecute. This is, of course, his second wife; his affair with her while married to their first wife (although they may have been informally separated; can’t remember the ins and outs) broke just after his victory in 2005.
re 24 sorry just seen … a full roger plus one, mike do you have a picture of roger can i suggest instead of 10 gordons you place a pic of him instead. Oh and plus a gordon as its an 11 point lead
17 BlueMoon “Andrew Pelling has been ’suspended’ by CCO.”
With any luck suspended by his reproductive organs !!
…………………….
So an 11 point lead … truly a “Fuller Roger”.
Delighted by the homegrown tycoons.
The only missing part of the eu referendum in Ireland is the date.
Ireland has much stronger USA connections than the UK. The Murdoch moves show that the USA is not as keen on a united europe as it used to be. Do the Irish people want their USA cultural connections to be severed? That might play strongly when the eu referendum comes.
This time the Irish referendum won’t turn on deals so easily. Last time Ireland were allowed to opt out of the EU Army and any military entanglements. This time there might not be any appropriate opt-outs to satisfy the NO voters.
17 - It’s a bit similar to Howard’s suspension of Jonathan Sayeed before the last GE.
22. “I think it’s hard to defend not having a referendum. People want one and they want to vote against the government. In a democracy they’re supposed to get their way”
Its not that hard to defend, as a country we almost never use referenda to make decisions, we elect a government to make choices for us. We might not like it but its what we do, its harder to defend having one.
I am sure there are lots of reasons for moving to a system that embeds the right to referenda eg when x% of the population can be made to sign up for one on a given topic, but set that number to low and we will spend our lives not bothering to vote in referenda - set it to high and we wont get any. Who decides what the question is? who wnats to pay more tax to fund more votes?
Whatever the pro’s and cons, its a different form of democracy to the one we have.
Seems to me the push for these things will always tend to be from single interest groups, i would be interested to hear if those on this site who want one on the European issue are doing so because
a) they are in favour or running the country by an ongoing use of refereda at some level
b) they think this issue is special (each SIG can claim this of course)
c) they think they were promised one (moot)
d) the opinion polls show people want them (which implies a) really)
Personally i think running a country on the day to day whims of ‘we the people’ is a pretty scary prospect but i am not sure how to balance that with a true belief in democracy. I will have to fall back on the belief this woudl really mean the media running the country even more than they do now
27
““Andrew Pelling has been ’suspended’ by CCO.”
With any luck suspended by his reproductive organs !!”
That’s Conservative Copulating Organs then.
‘They’ll only have to vote again if they get the answer wrong first time’ yes but that doesn’t mean they’ll vote yes the second time. Chances are, the vote will be larger the second time if it really is the same vote. And fairly obviously, no amount of re-running a referendum would make the UK ratify it.
For the pros, I think the most defensible position would be to have a referendum on (amended) EU membership instead. There’s a reasonable case that we need to confirm it by now, and many of the people who are against the treaty are really just hostile to the EU. One reason why the constitution has a worse chance of getting through than the EU itself is that people tend to vote against change in referenda. By comparison to EU membership, the treaty is a relatively minor matter. The downside risk, from the pros point of view, is of course that we decide to leave the EU.
How’s this for a wheeze for the pros? Have a three-way referendum: EU with treaty, EU without treaty, and out of EU. Firstly, the new treaty would be associated with EU membership, and that should reduce the number of people voting yes to the EU and no to the treaty. But there’s wiggle room on the outcome. Suppose the largest single group is in favour of the treaty, even if it’s only 35%. The government can then declare victory and ratify. If not, as long as a majority are in favour of the EU, the government can claim a partial victory on EU membership - so much better presentationally than a lost vote on the treaty. Then they can say that there’s no clear majority among the British people (if there isn’t) and so get on and do whatever they think best, which remarkably, is ratify the treaty. Or go and renegotiate and extract a few more concessions, whatever they think fit.
The hardest bit would be refusing to say what they’ll do in advance of the results.
The above plan is of course indefensible! Probably it would attract more flak than simply refusing a referendum. But it’s worth considering for the pros.
oh i missed one, but surely not one that would apply to anyone here
e) it suits their political ends to try and force one
These poll’s are getting silly now. Lib-Dem’s down to 13%? No chance!
31 wage slave. The very thought ….
The You Gov sample size looks fine but I’m very catious about the time frame. Doing it over just 24 hours or less while a big speech is playing in the media is bound to skew results. More serious though is the dip in Lib Dem support. Even for a You Gov 13% is awful for the Lib Dems. We nearly always get a conference bounce from all the extra media coverage while the 3 polls post conference that I have seen all show a 1 or 2 point dip. The next key question is wether the tories panic or close ranks and fight back.
Can any PM even thinking of going, ignore an 11% lead.
Go for it Gordon make an old man very happy!
Labour will not get 44% of the vote, about 3/4% at least, will switch to the Libdems as tactical voters.
Hi Raw.
I’m in the ‘believers in democracy’ camp, your option a. I agree that there should be a mechanism for calling a referendum through petition - or for that matter an election. It should initially be set at 50% of the electorate - a very high bar indeed, which would be achieved only very occasionally. It should be set high enough to get only one referendum in a Parliament or so. It could be lowered if it was never met.
I agree that the electorate would no doubt come to some very dubious authoritarian decisions, e.g. the death penalty. But if you believe in democracy, it’s hard to justify the fact that the electorate don’t get their way, persistently over many decades, on particular issues.
Incidentally I am not proposing a three-way referendum as discussed, just musing that if the pros are feeling manipulative, that would be one approach.
36 YS. Most odd ….. there we were being told endlessly that the Brown speech had bombed and was likely to have all the impact of the English rugby scrum and bugger me our gawd has only gone and done another ‘full Roger’.
It’s a funny old world on PB !!
I long thought that a proportion of the stay at home voters were reactionaries waiting for someone who would bash the immigrants, wrap themself in the Union Jack and, not only remove the liberal advances of the recent past, but take us back to the 1950s with its stultifying social conservatism. It looks like in Brown they’ve found their man.
38 - I believe in referendums for constitutional matters but nothing else. With a representative democracy you vote for policies at an election, changing the framework of government is a different matter, however, and is deserving of separate consideration.
The LDs are very unlikely to perform so badly in a GE; but it indicates their vulnerability to a squeeze. The real problem for Ming is that previous Liberal and LD leaders were able to maintain their authority in tough times by exerting their charisma. While Ming can probably do the right things in instrumental terms like policy, he might not have the personal pull to sell the message to the public and get his colleagues and activists enthused.
Regional data shows that the Lib Dem squeeze is greatest in their key areas (SW and Scotland). While the Libs will probably do better then 13% in a GE, whether the vote holds up in the places it needs to is another matter.
Poor old Mike, he’s going to need a new graphic! Don’t worry there will no doubt be some joy to follow with a big down arrow soon. Unless of course Cameron sinks to new depths of uselessness.
I can’t say I’ve always seen eye to eye with every blog you’ve done of late Mike, but on this one agree. I personally find the whole Euro thing a complete bore (couldn’t care a less frankly) but I fully recognise this is a big issue now, possibly THE big issue … just look at today’s Sun.
37. Even this poll has a warning for brown, with a majority of voters not wantinng an election this year. Thats because while they are favouring Labour at the moment, they still haven’t fully made up their mind. There is a danger that in an early poll, a lot of those people could switch against Brown, as a protest for him not allowing them longer to fully make up their minds.
Jack W at 39 “there we were being told endlessly that the Brown speech had bombed”
It has, at least with all liberal minded people. The fact that 44% like that kind of authoritarian stuff is deeply worrying though.
This Brown government very genuinely frightens me. So, though, does the right-wing of the Conservative Party (Davis, Fox, Leigh etc) - for exactly the same reasons.
Quentin Davies on C4. What a deluded duffer. He turns up a day early to Conference “due to a diary mix up”.
40: ‘I long thought that a proportion of the stay at home voters were reactionaries waiting for someone who would bash the immigrants, wrap themself in the Union Jack…’
Yes, it will be interesting to see how Brown’s far-right posturing affects the BNP vote. It might put the squeeze on them, perhaps; more likely it will give them the oxygen of legitimacy.
46 Steven. There’s the paradox of NuLab. We have had a government that has mixed liberal legislation on subjests such as gay rights with a profound authoritarian streak that is deeply worrying.
47
I laughed when I heard that
Those assuming the LibDems won’t sink, well maybe you’re right. But there is absolutely no historical precedence for being so certain of polling above 15%.
For nearly three decades after the second world war they only once polled above 10%, managing 2.5% in 1951. Their rise to the giddy 20%’s was also checked by a meagre 13.8% after the extraordinary Jeremy Thorpe affair (surely one of the great, awful and absorbing political stories in post-war Britain). It might be argued that Hughes-Oaten-Kennedy are enough to see them languish again. I’m not saying I subscribe to this, I merely reflect that the recent facts do not support them having absolute right to high opinion poll ratings.
42 - don’t believe that the Libs will be down to just one seat nor that the SNP will win all those seats either.
Peter O points out “Regional data shows that the Lib Dem squeeze is greatest in their key areas (SW and Scotland).”
Why then do some of the Lib Dems that post on here state the complete opposite? Ming/Rennard said that in the May 07 locals when they lost a few hundred seats that they had actually gained overall where they had MPs.
Presumably it is very unusual for Lib Dems to be down in the You Gov polls barely 4 days after their Conference ended.
51 - I agree, and in particular the volatility of the Lib Dem vote (the latest YouGov poll suggests losing 40% of their support since 2005) shows that a large amount of their support is not hardcore, unlike the Tories / Labour who you couldn’t see dipping much below 30% (1983 and 1997).
51 Rev. The poor % showing of the Liberals post war upto 1964, and especially in the 51 election, had more to do with the fact that they failed to run a full slate of candidates.
The lowest score achieved by the Liberals since Feb 74 was 13.8% in the 79 election.
46 - I wouldn’t put D Davis in with Fox et al but I agree with your point.
51 - “2.5% in 1951″ largely due to having bugger all candidates.
45 The trouble with that is that only 39% say they’re against an early election. Presumably very few of the 33% who supported the Tories in the poll want one. Add on a few LDs and you’re there.
This is an awful poll for the Tories and it’s silly to pretend otherwise. It’s up to DC now to fight back next week. He needs the speech of his life just as he did at the Party Conference before he won the leadership. He delivered then; I think he’ll deliver again.
Who knows he might even be able to claim the credit for GB bottling it at the last minute. If not it will at least be a really good start to the campaign….
57 - As opposed to now having buggering candidates?
I’ll get my coat…
40,
remove what liberal advances of the recent past?
I hope we can still get a pint at midnight!
59 naughty…
39 - your age is getting to you Jack - the speech did bomb with the people it was aimed at, core tory voters. Unless there is masses of churn with Bufton Tufton siging up for the complete statist Dear Leader promise of jam tomorrow from Gawd whilst loads of beardie wierdies are switching to the tories to try and prevent a police state then Brown’s speech failed.
Anecdotal report from the cotswolds - anyone who knew Brown had made a speech felt it was more of the same - but we teachers are trained to sniff out bull$h1tters. Brown’s speech, like his budget speeches was terrible. It just takes a lot of people a few days to realise.
62. You could hardly be described as objective kim bong o. He had a go at weed, and you don’t like it. Fine. But I think suddenly appealing to the Tory core as if you have much in common with them is rather disingenuous. The evidence of whether he reached out to more centre and centre-right people will be in the opinion polls.
I remember well some of the comments on Ealing Southall. You’d have thought Labour were dead and buried from all the biased tosh that appeared in comments on here. A healthy pinch of salt needed, and a lot of caution about people making mischief in order to make a buck or two …
Quick Quiz (15 minute time limit - I get impatient…), who said teh following (the parties they represent would do)?
“It used to be the case that illegal immigrants feared a knock on the door. That state of affairs needs to be reinstated.”
“I believe those here illegally should go home - not go to the front of the queue for jobs and benefits.”
“Immigrants who are here illegally and who cheat or commit crime will be expelled.”
and just for balance -
“a route of earned legalisation should be made available to those who have lived here unauthorised for many years. We would set stringent criteria - this is not a blanket amnesty - namely that the applicant should have lived in the UK for many years; should have a clean criminal record; and should show a long-term commitment to the UK. The applicant would be subject to a public interest test and an English language and civics test, and would be required to pay a charge. This would be of economic benefit too, with the exchequer estimated to be losing out on as much as £3.3bn in unpaid tax each year.”
62 kingdrongo. Our Gawd’s speech was not aimed at core Conservative voters. It was aimed at the Conservative soft right, middle class voters and those on the right in the Lib Dems.
You say it failed .. Yougov says different.
“those on the right in the Lib Dems.”
Come on Jack, you’re having a laugh, it wasn’t aimed at anyone in the lib dems.
65 - Jack, You little teaser. You know full well that we won’t really begin to know the true lay of the land until young Mr. Cameron has also sung for his supper. We oldies (semi in my case) should appreciate the virtues of patience
64 - at a guess Lab, Lab, Lab and LD in that order. (Last one Clegg; first three various Home Secs…)
66 ukpaul. You think Lib Dems are some homogenous group ??
Look at the polling !!
67 John O. Any Cameron songs spring to mind ?? ….. let’s hope he’s not got a sore throut or turns into another “quiet man” !!
69 - Cameron songs
Anything you can do, I can do better
(Here comes the) Mirror Man (Human League)
I wanna be like you (Jungle Book)
Same old scene (Roxy Music)
69 - I said that it wasn’t *aimed* at lib dems and it wasn’t, it was aimed at tories and all points beyond.
1) Conservative (Michael Howard)
2) Labour (Liam Byrne)
3) Front National (Florence Berthezène)
4)
72 - Whoops.
4) Lib Dem (Nick Clegg)
The last one being the odd one out, it being the only considered and non-reactionary comment of the four.
70. Cameron sings (cont.)
The Eton Rifles (The Jam)
Landslide (Fleetwood Mac)
The only way is up (Yazz)
They’re coming to take me away (Napoleon XIV)
I think what you will continue to find is a weaker generic party allegience and a greater link to local activity.
74 Stuck in the Middle with You
He Ain’t Heavy
Whistle down the Wind
The Joker
Absolute Beginners
Now that the Magic is gone
And for you LD Tom Roinson fans out there
Up against the Wall
Ad naus….
Have fun/sleep tight
TB
Irish will not call referendum until Gordon Brown is ready, and done with election in UK.
The Dutch government knew they were going to lose after last time, in the same way that Labour know they will lose a referendum vote. The only way they can keep the treaty going forward is to ignore the public, and they know it.
77. What a lot of old twaddle.