So will 11 Gordons influence the election decision?
September 25th, 2007
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The Lib Dems move down as Labour hits a staggering 44%
A YouGov poll for Channel Four news taken in the immediate aftermath of of Brown’s conference speech gives Labour an amazing 44% share with the Lib Dems down to 13%.
These are the shares with the changes on the last poll from the internet pollster - CON 33% (nc): LAB 44% (+5): LD 13% (-3).
This is the lowest Lib Dem share from YouGov since Kennedy moved on and won’t surprise the party which has long complained about the pollster’s approach.
Clearly the timing was crucial. Staging a poll so soon after a leader’s speech of any party was going to produce a boost given the amount of media coverage that is given.
YouGov does not weight by certainty to vote though it should be said that in the latest ICM poll Labour supporters were almost as likely to say they would turn out as the Tories. This has been a sharp trend in the period since Brown came in.
This is going to affect the thinking on an early election and it become harder for Brown to resist it. What better opportunity will he ever have?
My money stays as a buyer of Labour seats and a seller of Gordon weeks on the spread markets.
Mike Smithson
MessageSpace Advertising
Gloves off - Nov 1st here we go!
these favourable polls are like shares - they can go down as well as up.
How seriously can you take a poll so soon after the speech? This is before the paper’s had time to take it apart.
3 - “the paper’s had time” - which paper?
GB isn’t going to decide until next week. The w/end polls will be crucial but it seems he’s going to see the reaction to DC. This carries dangers; if it seems like all systems go on Sunday and he bottles because DC does well he won’t exactly be living up to his slogan.
Hardly bombed has it though, like many a soothsayer said on here.
If they read this site recently they wouldn`t have got any decent betting advice on the reaction to the speech.
It’s an excellent poll for Labour, but unless he’d completely bombed the speech, of course a poll on the evening after Brown’s speech is going to show a boost for Labour.
i was not expecting this at all, and i have been the biggest shouter of an early election on here. an 11 point lead? i just don’t know what’s stopping the big man now
I’m not being funny, but for gods sake, you don’t poll just after the PM’s speech and take it seriously.
Who funded this poll?…
That’s all you need to know and I think that this is a game that Brown is playing. It ONLY makes sense if he is considering an early GE.
If not, I’m begining to think that all Labour are doing currently is taking the piss when they should be running the country. It will backfire.
So, I say, let’s have a GE, I’ve had enough of this and that poll will be nothing like the reality. The Conservatives will be far from finished even if we are beaten. Cameron will survive and it actually brings forward the expected win date anyway (it was always a two election campaign.
Matt.
oh, the tories trying to spin an ELEVEN point deficit in Labour’s TENTH year of power. pathetic.
also, mike, nice copy and pasting of the intention figures from ukpollingreport
This is about egging them into a Autumn election. They would never normally commission a poll just after a speech because it clearly skews the figures. It does confirm the trend though that the Lib Dem conference has had a negative effect.
9,
It was always a two election campaign,
Once upon a time in a far off land .
12….
Hold on a minute… you can’t be suggesting that Labour will be in power for more than 15 years can you?
That’s madness.
Matt.
8 the fact he knows that 11 points could melt like April snow - having an election now isn’t rational. However if he doesn’t do it now he will have to wait until 2009 earliest and probably 2010.
Personally I hope he decides to have an election just so we can get on with it.
From the previous thread - ReverseEnd PoxDoor, your post makes no sense - I am incapable of fathoming your meaning from the string of non-sequiters you posted.
2.Marcia, how are things going with the SNP Westminster candidate selections. Did my bit for cross party consensus, I did a spot of babysitting for a SNP activist so they could get to a selection meeting.
3.Agree with you there Woody, that speech came apart before Brown finished.
If Brown called an election on the basis of this particular poll he would be clinically insane.
I challenge any Tory to predict an 11 point Tory lead immediately Dave’s speech.
You’d almost get the idea that YouGov were trying to boost Brown……
17 - Yes but this is a 5 point bounce so on that basis we could see a similar effect of a 5 or 6 point bounce. It wouldnt translate into an 11 point lead but hey.
But Yougov are only doing what they are paid to do… that fact that the media have picked up on the poll means that someone commissioned the poll and has released it.
Strikes me that you could commission a positive poll for your own leader / party by careful choosing a) the right moment and b) asking the right questions.
You could certainly influence betting markets that way…
Food for thought.
Matt.
Superb poll, but lib dems clearly too low. Labour also has a 16 point lead among women voters. Looks like Gordon refreshes the parts old Dave can’t reach!
13,
It might have started off that way, but expectations regarding Cameron might achieve a majority government in one hit, became common currency for Test and his band of merrymen.
Apparently defying this evening’s polling evidence on C4, the odds on a 2007 GE have widened appreciably over the past 90 minutes - in fact by a whole integer, from around 1.9-1 to the latest matched price of 2.95-1 - very odd! Has someone dropped a heavy clue?
A question to our many polling experts: is an internet poll conducted in 24 hours as robust than one conducted in the normal timescale? Not casting aspersions on YouGov…just interested to know.
Using Baxter, on these figures Tories gain one seat net. Enough for Cameron to survive.
And LDs retain one seat… Ming would lose his seat, and Steve Webb would be party leader by default…
Remember, it’s only a bit of fun!
So for November 1st, when does Brown have to call it?
Isn’t the boss of YouGov, Peter Kellner, married to a Labour minister? Should a pollster be so closely involved with politics?
It makes me feel very uneasy.
Whay I find impressive about most of the other pollsters is that you do not know what their politics are.
Would not it be better for YouGov to be led by someone who was less closely involved with the process?
27 - So what? Yougov was founded by Stephan Shakespeare - failed Tory candidate in Colchester in 1997.
23 Should also have noted that the betting activity in this market on Betfair has been appreciably higher today, albeit amounting to a modest £3K.
lol, Just realised that Mike has used a great big blue arrow to show Broons lead…
Says it all really!
Matt.
If the Lib Dems are down (with You gov) to 13%, 4 days after their conference, will the You gov figures fall further next week when the Conservative conference gets underway? Surely not.
15 - I missed the Dundee West selection meeting as I was in France at the time doing my annual pilgrimage in the Somme. The candidate has been selected and we are just waiting for National Executive approval. Our house is in DW for Westminster rather than Dundee East for Holyrood. My first bit of canvassing since May on Sunday was very good, my first since May. Alex Salmond appears to have a good rapport with the voters, so far so good.
24. Thought of you as I walked past Knutsford heath just now. O dear dead days beyond recall …
26 - All Saints Day - Tories to win by landslide
(With apologies to
:roll: 
re 24. It is not unusual for polls to be carried out so quickly. I can recall a YouGov survey taken on the day Cameron became Tory leader which was published on SkyNews that night.
What might have happened here is that YouGov, which is polling all the time for a wide range of clients, might have picked up the sharp move to Labour. They could then have suggested to Channel 4 news that a poll be commissioned. The firm is in business to make money after all.
re 30. I’m glad somebody noticed my blue arrow. That was deliberate.
This must be the most ludicrous poll ever purporting to forecast a GE result pretty much a new low for the polling industry in this country . When do we ever have a GE where a Prime Minister gives a major speech and people vote within a couple of hours with no input from the opposition leaders . I wonder if Channel 4 will do a similar poll immediately after Cameron’s speech .
There was a time when the visual media reported news, now they are hell bent on creating it. Last week Robert Peston’s BBC reports single handedly turned the Northern Rock drama into a crisis. We now have C4 news setting Brown up for a GE which in my opinion he will not win anything like as handsomely as is being touted, if he wins at all!
Since the Hutton/Kelly crisis the BBC’s general editorial stance appears to me to be fervently anti-government (not pro-Tory but anti-government!) just like it was during the dying days of the Major government. Bi-partisan? I think not!
33 - Ah, my almost namesake, Mr. Riley. An honour and a pleasure to renew our acquaintance. Still an early evening imbiber of something chilled and white, I trust
mike why do you copy and paste the voting intention figures from uk pollingreport?
and youve now changed it to get rid of the exclamation mark! oops!
Thank God he gave a really bad speech,(according to the blue harpies) what would Brown’s lead be if he’d given a good one?
I wonder what the Blue Harpies will be saying if after DC’s speech, yougov publish a Tory lead of 11%, bet that poll will be ok, perhaps even better than ok.
DC had better give one hell of a speech, it’ll have to make the Gettysburg Address pale into insignificance, let alone, ‘Never in the field of human conflict…..’ Or else its the IDS solution, ‘The quiet man is here to stay and he’s turning up the vol…..aaaaagh’
One of the great things about Internet polling is that it is very easy to get extra sample to take the survey - if you need more responses quickly, just send more invites out. If Channel 4 News wanted to get reaction quickly and get a poll done quickly, the Internet and YouGov would be a good way to do so.
I am now totally resigned to another Labour win. I’d rather they took an election now so we can try to get them out in 2011 rather than having to wait until 2013.
Ho hum.
40 - Perobably because it’s easier than writing it out again, still it’s better than posting the same inane observation which people ignored the first time.
that poll is amazing. Not because it can be read as a serious measure of voting intention but because it seemed to me that neither Lab or Con could any more record that sort of score from a reasonable pollster, however favourable the timing or unfavourable the news for the other. As I recall, in Labour’s dark days last year, the Tories failed to breach 41%.
39. Have not touched a drop for two years! Worse, I have won eight 65+ road races this year. Sic transit gloria ….
Hope to resile (vogue word) in Auckland next month. Cheers.
YouGov has been all over the place and is way out from other pollsters. Unless they change their methology I take very little from any poll they produce.
Could somebody do the decent thing and persuade Gordon to go now - at least we can then get on with putting Ming Campbell out of his misery. Surprised that everyone is shocked by Channel 4 commissioning such a silly poll, though. After all, it’s worthy of the people who organise BB!
Mike, can you make sure you record all the Labourites most ridiculous claims about Cameron/the Conservatives. It will be most amusing to bring their claims back when the shine has come off Gordy in 3-4 months.
re 40 I used Anthony Wells as a source because he is a friend, works for YouGov and is someone I can totally trust for authenticity. When I have had polls first and published them here other sites have done the same. People also use my illustrations.
I have a different format for displaying poll numbers.
(Tongue in cheek)
1. Will the Lib Dem (Yougov) figure be 10% after DC speech?
2. How far do the Lib Dems have to drop, to get included in “Others”? (Sorry Mike & PB Libbers)
Slightly O/T: If an election is called (as I expect) will Pelling, the suspended Tory MP (Croydon C) be able to stand as an official candidate?
Right that’s it then !
Can The Sunset Affect The Election Date?
By Michael Thrasher and Colin Rallings
Updated: 14:05, Monday September 24, 2007
One factor that is likely to occupy Gordon Brown’s mind as he ponders his decision on whether or not to call an autumn general election is the level of turnout.
With Labour voters being seen as particularly difficult to mobilise, differential turnout among each party’s supporters could be crucial in a close race.
Unique analysis by the Local Government Chronicle Elections Centre, University of Plymouth, provides clear evidence that electoral turnout is affected by seasonal factors.
A study of more than 5000 local by-elections over a twenty-year period reveals that there is a relationship between the hours of daylight and the numbers willing to participate in an election.
In a nutshell, the later the sun sets, the more likely are people to go out to vote.
For a political leader whose party is highly vulnerable to the stay at home factor this information is critical.
General elections in the winter months are understandably rare, but even during the spring the public seems progressively to respond to lighter evenings.
Says it all really ?
50
Not as amusing as going back in the archives, and reading what the ‘Blue Harpies’ had to say about GB before he became leader.
27,28 - For a long time [some] posters on this site used to allege that Yougov was biased towards the Tories.
I think the poll is an outlier. Of course. But what an outlier!
It’s worth pointing out that Labour can pick up a fair few Tory seats on the basis of winning over Lib Dem votes.
However, I would think the Tories should be somewhat reassured that their share holds firm at 33%. Time was that an outlying poll would put their share of the vote below 30%. This is apparently no longer the case.
As Anthony Wells mentions on his site , this is pretty much a carbon copy of what Yougov found post Blair’s speech at last years Party Conference . A 7% Conservative lead on the 22nd changed to level pegging on the 29th with LibDems down 2% . Note they then did not conduct a poll in the week of the Conservative conference and by the 26th october the Conservatives had a 7% lead again .
http://politics.guardian.co.uk/labour2007/story/0,,2176905,00.html
Apologies if people have already seen this, but the priceless line comes near the end:
“Labour aides hastened to ensure that Gordon Brown did not make eye contact with the nude swimmers.”
I take “eye contact” to mean to look into someone else’s eyes… So what part of the nude swimmers was Brown allowed to look at?
Is this the real reason that the Sub-prime Minister should call an early election:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/radio/podcasts/fileon4/
Well worth a listen if you think sub-prime is a just US problem.
59. “…just a…”
BBC News 24 ticker has been saying that a majority in this “poll” (if that’s what it is) oppose a general election this year.
GB might find DC and MC expressing support for an election but will the voters be so thankful?
Much crowing by Labour supporters here this evening, but the betting markets continue to indicate stubbornly that we aint going to see a general election this year.
61 GB might find DC and MC expressing support for an election ……/
Are you kidding - the words Turkeys and Christmas spring to mind!
God speed and assist the people of Burma. Libera nos Domine!
At last I’ve seen GB’s speech. Nothing exceptional though nothing offensive either. A little personal for my taste-I always find this kind of thing too presidential and American-but reading the reactions of the Tories on here including one who compared him to Nick Griffin and another to Hitler it was obvious that he’d hit the spot.
Perhaps that’s why I’m slightly underwhelmed. With the desperate stuff of last night I thought it would have as a minimum a senior Tory en flagrante delicto with someone but he didn’t even mention them at all! How cool is that?
I heard something which suggests that an election could be called quite soon. Saatchis are apparently on red alert but whether that is just them or whether someone has told them to be I don’t know. .
Good luck to Cameron next week. He’s got a difficult job but he can be very impressive when he leaves the gimmicks at the door. I can’t see him stopping Labour from gaining a few seats but apart from wasting a year when he should have been forging an identity for his party he’s certainly head and shoulders above his three predecessors
Anyway I’ll go and hide now as I understand a fascist vulgarian is on his way……..
64
Yes we should remember, that while we have a little fun over whether we will have an election or not, to the Burmese people its a matter of life or death.
63 - whilst I’m sure DC is looking at the polls and thinking “Er, actually we’ll wait after all” I have found his response to GB’s speech yesterday (no sign on BBC website of course…):
“After that uninspiring speech it is clear that GB has no answers to Britain’s problems. Conservatives have, and that is why all along we have called for a general election”.
So there we are. DC’s made his bed and is going to lie in it. It means GB can say “Well, Dave backs an early election”.
Of course, GB ruled out an early poll on Radio 4 yesterday…
61 - 57% oppose early election; 29% say “go for it”
End of debate?
Perhaps we should have a referendum on whether or not to have an election.
Lib Dems also hearing that an election announcement is imminent.
http://norfolkblogger.blogspot.com/
“I received a phone call tonight from the Eastern Region of the Lib Dems asking, as an approved parliamentary candidate, if I was prepared to stand at very short notice, as a Lib Dem candidate and be available from possibly next week to stand in seats where there is no lib Dem candidate selected yet.”
It’d better not be November 1st, I’m going to be on the floor with work as it is that week. During half term (I’d enjoy it but you have to be mad to do it) or Nov 15th onwards for me!
I seem to recall a large majority in favour of an election immediately after Brown took over. This indicates that a) the public really do like Brown a lot, and want him to continue or b) they’re fickle (or perhaps c) both).
In any case, anyone who thinks that the fact an election is called (whether the public ‘want’ it or not) will make a jot of difference on voting intention is crazy.
70.There a bit slow aren’t they, been hearing of a rush to select Westminster candidates for a few weeks now in various parties with all the hype of a GE?
madness bloody madness, this is complete fantasy politics one hopes normal service will be resumed soon ( this is comes direct from a certain town on the south coast where the government has decamped for the week )
Everyone’s panicing. If an election was defo going to be called, the b/f price wouldn’t keep drifting out after the sheep money plunges on. This is a wind up that’s got out of control.
75 - well there’s only one person to blame for it all.
still no comment on your copy and pasting from other websites mike?
Watch this week’s local election result in Dartford - a big swing to Labour and the election could be November 1st over a weekend.
77 - In polite terms, go away. Not only are you boring but you also can’t read.
http://politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2007/09/25/so-will-11-gordons-influence-the-election-decision/#comment-513696
…although my money is now on May 2008.
77 - Mike has already replied to your rather bellicose post. If it’s not a problem for Anthony, then I don’t see why it should be one for you.
good reply
75.Why is everyone panicking? Brown and his team have been ratcheting up, then rowing back on the briefings of a possible Autumn GE for weeks for various political ends. This is not about seeking a mandate, but rather using the threat of a GE to destabilise the opposition in both his own party and in the opposition.
I don’t think that the GE operation of any of the parties is fully in place, never mind the government machine for an Autumn election. Having said that, after what Douglas Alexander presided over back in May in Scotland I should not be surprised to see a ballot box car crash in slow motion with all the ensuing chaos and disillusionment that follows.
Brown the ultimate spin merchant is in charge and politics is not looking a pretty sight at the moment.
re 26 for a 1st November election parliament would have to be dissolved on 9th October, the day after it restarts.
The quinessential omen for an election used to be a journo checking whether there were any unusual signs of change at the govenring party HQ: curtains being cleaned, extra furniture being ordered, that sort of thing. Perhaps a mole or sharp-eyed journo will oblige?
78 There are a number of local byelections on thursday which might influence discussions over the weekend, Nelson ward in Portsmouth North is one to watch.
85. More Tory defections this weekend, a terrible conference for Dave and who could rule it out?
78 Not aware of any election in Dartford this Thursday but there are in Dover .
Sorry, I meant Dover.
86 Portsmouth Nelson ward previous results :-
2003 Lab 987 Con 717 LibDem 417
2004 Lab 1024 Con 873 LibDem 670
2006 Lab 1049 Con 827 LibDem 527 Green 266
2007 Lab 840 Con 711 LibDem 717 Green 168 EngDem 199
There is this defection in Brighton, this is one A lister who won’t be getting Pellings old seat.
http://tinyurl.com/36aa5s
83 Chris D said “but rather using the threat of a GE to destabilise the opposition in both his own party and in the opposition.”
What it is doing is ensuring that the opposition parties have accelerated the selection of candidates etc.
If there is no election this year, the opposition parties will be in a better shape to fight in 2008. The threat of an election helps energise the organisations into action. They may not be ready now, but they are going to be more ready in spring 08 because of the false alarm this autumn.
One consideration I haven’t seen much mention of is that an Oct/Nov election will avoid the necessity of Brown facing a troublesome time in the Commons before going to the country.
At the moment He’s had a couple of fairly easy weeks as the last session faded out, and he’d probably have a couple of mopping up weeks before the election - but no dangers of embarrassing banana skins or rebellions to make the party look divided.
This would allow him to go to the country with a virtually unblemished record as PM - which will do wonders for the vote…
90. we should be expecting to see something like Lab 1100 on thursday then. fingers crossed.
OhmyGod! Is anyone else watching this Miliband interview with Paxman?
Miliband is a grotesquely arrogant pr1ck. Nasty, nasty, nasty. Ugh! No wonder the Sun journalists nearly punched him last week.
Advice to Labour: rein in Miliband immediately. He would have been a DISASTER as prime minister.
Dover Maxton et al ward previous results ( highest candidate )
2003 Lab 675 Con 564 LibDem 462
2007 Lab 733 Con 624 LibDem 381 Ind 243
Sunderland Washington East previous results
2004 Lab 1445 Con 882 LibDem 821 BNP 322
2006 Lab 1103 Con 1005 LibDem 487 BNP 286
2007 Lab 1220 Con 1245 LibDem 441 BNP 195
95: ‘Miliband is a grotesquely arrogant pr1ck’
But John Simpson campared him to JFK!
93 Pimpernel - somewhat double-edged this one. It means he’ll go into the GE a little ring rusty to face the likes of Paxo, etc.
Kent CC Dover Town previous results
2005 Lab 6194 Con 3455 LibDem 2658
Ward comprises 6 district wards aggregate votes
2003 Lab 2947 Con 2209 LibDem 462 Others 570
2007 Lab 3105 Con 2409 LibDem 381 UKIP 285 Others 701
LibDems only fought 1 of the 6 wards in both years
Paxo er… looks so er… boreeeeed, stiff.
I’m a rubbish public speaker. I thought politicians were supposed to be good at it!
97. I’m not joking. Miliband is coming across as quite the most obnoxious interviewee. Yuk.
Now he’s backtracking - but too late mate. The world saw a flash of vile arrogance.
He’s doing it again! Aaargh! What a nauseating prig. Get ‘im off.
Miliband wants South Africa as permanent member of the UN Security Council even though its ruler is a Mugabe supporting loon who denies the existence of AIDS!
I’ve got a question - I just sent of my voter registration form (first time in seven years) this evening, because I want to vote in the election.
The explanatory paper seemed ambigious. First they say that they take registrations all year round and that the register is regularly updated… then in another section they say that this is an ‘annual survey’ and that the register will be updated on the 1st of December (ten weeks??).
I’d assumed that as long as my registration arrived before the election was announced that I’d be able to vote. Am I going to be allowed to vote?
Was just thinking the exact opposite about the Miliband interview. Think he looks self-assured, unruffled by the Paxo treatment and on top of his brief.
Milliband getting into to dead parrot territory!!
Cheshire CC Chester Gowy
2005 result Con 3936 LibDem 2666 Lab 1555
Ward comprises 4 district wards aggregate votes last fought in 2006/2007 Con 3176 LibDem 1904 Lab 603 UKIP 47
105. agreed. miliband is just another man the tories fear as they know they have no-one who will be able to compete with him in 5-10 years
I’m usually a Miliband fan but this interview is not his greatest moment. He’s been sold a pup with trying to justify what he’s justifying, I doubt he’s thanking Brown for the poisoned chalice he has been thrown.
Is it possible that RedTed is a tory spoof and Stark Dawning is a labour spoof, both designed to send-up the positions they claim to represent?
96. We have a marginal ward (Sunderland) in the north and marginal wards in the South (Kent, Portsmouth) this week…will the trends differ? Too little sample probably though
” This is a wind up that’s got out of control. ”
Agreed.
” Brown the ultimate spin merchant is in charge and politics is not looking a pretty sight at the moment.”
He is a grade A twat for allowing this thing to spiral out of control in my opinion, for what it’s worth.
‘Gettting on with the job’ my arse…
Matt.
If this is how the masses vote, we’ll have to rename nu lab the National Socialists. Everyone will try and prove how Scottish they are, as the jobs for jocks rule (see todays government for details) takes hold.
The BBC are already a government spokesman that herr Goerbals would have been proud of
The new father of the nation come to power, by resting control of his party from its elected leader
When he’s called Stalin, it’s the wrong 1930’s dictator
re 104 well if you can’t be bothered to fill the form in regularly then frankly you don’t deserve it. You’ve also committed a criminal offence.
Nah. Miliband is the typically arrogant son of the Hampstead Marxist emigre. I know the type well.
Some have a charm despite their arrogance. Miliband - on this evidence - lacks it. I wonder what his Marxist dad would have thought of the Marxist regime in Burma?
113 - That reminds me, has anyone seen ‘francis’ recently?
97
‘Miliband is a grotesquely arrogant pr1ck’
Visually he’s the Labour party’s version of John Redwood.
Seems I’m not the only one to be shocked by the oddly unpleasant new Miliband persona:
http://tinyurl.com/2kwg3l
She even uses the same word as me: Aaaaargh!
104 - the form I’ve received recently says “Register of Electors 2008″ which does suggest it’s for updating the register for next year. Which I suppose is logical - you send it out in the autumn when there won’t be an election so everything’s updated before any polls that might take place in the spring.
I see the New Labour warmongers on Newsnight are playing the ‘Blame Rummy’ card. Risible.
115. “I wonder what his Marxist dad would have thought of the Marxist regime in Burma?”
Are you suggesting he’d have supported it? Or that this reflect ill on his son 13 years after his death?
117. Redwood always seemed, to me, to be bonkers. After all, he genuinely has swivelling eyes. Anyone that obviously mad is never going to get that far.
By contrast, Miliband seemed quite nice and normal until now. Which makes his sudden metamorphosis into a vain, sneering, big-headed f*ckwit quite unsettling.
Talking of Francis….. for voice overs Scottish voices are the most trusted. I remember seeing a list a while ago so for banks and insurance companies Scottish voices were the most popular. It now seems that despite all the talk of people disliking his Scottishness he is the most trusted. Advertisers spend a fortune on this sort of research so it’s worth taking seriously
121. Search me. What do you think? Would a Marxist support a Marxist regime? Maybe. I guess they would. Why be a Marxist if you don’t support Marxism?
Would you feel different about Miliband if Miliband’s dad had been a Fascist? Rather than a communist? Probably you would.
Why?
Paxo deseves a good patronising after patronising everyone else in tv land at the edinburgh festival this year.
Whilst I’m sure YouGov panels are politically representative, is there a possibility they are biased towards people who follow and watch the TV news?
On any one evening approx 20% of people watch a TV news bulletin. Assume it is unlikely anyone would switch to Labour based on Brown’s speech if thay hadn’t actually seen it on the news. If so, the 5% rise in Labour support would have come entirely from that 20%.
That would imply 5/20, ie 25% of people who saw the TV news switched. If viewers were also politically representative, that implies Labour support amongst people who saw the TV news would have risen from 39% to 64%. That is surely inconceivable.
Obviously the above numbers are a simplification - a few people could have switched based on other press reports / influence of friends or family.
But the principle holds. If YouGov samples were biased towards people who follow the news, it would suggest the true boost of the Brown speech amongst the whole population would be less than the 5% reported.
This poll is absurd - taking it right after a conference love-in is a bizarre way to judge anything. The fact that it is internet (i.e. instant media) based is what is making it so volatile. Cant be taken seriously after such a different ICM poll.
re: Milliband, I’ve always found him a bit snotty when he gets going. If the Tories “fear” him, they really are lacking in talent…
124. why does it matter what milibands dad was?
Hilarious to witness dear old Ollie Kamm still heaping adulation on Tony Blair just just everyone else on the planet has erased him from their memories.
10. “oh, the tories trying to spin an ELEVEN point deficit in Labour’s TENTH year of power. pathetic.”
Actually we are halfway through our eleventh year…
Most of the gain appears to be coming from the LibDems, and I don’t think it is anything to do with Ming. The damage was done during the LibDem leadership election, when a spotlight was shone on members of the party for the first time, and the public didn’t like what they saw.
I’m also not surprised that 57% oppose an early election. Everyone I’ve talked to outside politics says the same.
I think the public have got used to general elections every four years in the spring, it’s become a sort of national rhythm. The feeling is that you should only have elections outside this if there is some sort of crisis that the nation needs to decide on, and no one thinks there is any crisis now.
My inclination is that it might be better just to go along with this “settled rhythm”. If people are forced to vote in November, they might think it was an un-necesary nuisance and sulk and refuse to turn out and vote. But this is just my opinion.
You know guys, it should noted that this poll is probably less about predicting the next general election than it is about measuring public reaction to Brown’s speech, in which case the timing is absolutely right.
And in all this, a 5 point bump for a conference speech in the space of 24 hours ain’t bad. I can’t recall any party leader who’s had that sort of bounce before.
I’m not a labour fan but I thought Miliband gave a kinda good interview. His “I don’t knows” while suggested incometence were a lot more human and unpolitical than a lot of interviews i.e. not the key stuff that turns people of politics. And his incredulous look when Paxo mentioned the big I(raq) for no good reason was excellent.
124. It doesn’t necessarily matter in itself. Indeed it shouldn’t matter.
What I was doing was pointing up the difference in the way we regard Communists and Fascists.
To me they are both barbaric and totalitarian ideologies, that seek to crush the human spirit: one does it in the name of class and economics, the other in the name of race and nation. Both seek to overturn democracy.
Yet we indulge communists and their children, in a way we wouldn’t indulge Fascists and their children. If it was revealed that David Miliband’s Dad has fought with Mussolini, or was a member of the Nazi party, or was a student of Fascist Philosophy, there would be uproar. But the son of a Marxist? No problem.
It’s curious.
Your point seems to be to smear his son’s reputation by reference to your own speculation about his views. Which seems a little contrived and unfair. Surely it’s to you to make the accusation stand-up?
Miliband’s speech looked rubbish though - what he was saying didn’t really matter, his oratory skills are rubbish (in big stage circumstances anyway.) - those stupid blairites that were pushing him for leader should be ashamed of themselves.
132. well i am a life long Labour voter an i agree milliband came across like a total cock.
seanT you are a bizarre poster
Milliband at least give a one word answer to a question no.
Thought Paxo might like that for a change, but obviously not,no pleasing the miserable twat.
134. You see a smear. I see the arrogant son of a Marxist intellectual.
Like, whatever.
Interesting times in politics isn’t it? Interesting poll, but the key question for me is how will the EU issue pan out? The coverage from the Times/Sun was pretty stark.
My 2p.
I don’t think that a Murdoch led referendum with all the hysteria would be democratic. No chance of sober debate.
But I also don’t think that just treating this as a standard little house of commons amending bill is democratic either.
Most people would want to vote on this issue for and if you beleive Milliband, this bill was not an issue in 2005. So there is a need for some kind of vote.Of course, if you don’t believe him, then it was the consitutional bill and Labour promised a vote.
Either way, there needs to be something where the issue is put to the public. A GE perhaps? Better than a referendum in many ways because polticians jobs will be at stake so they’d better take it seriously. The govt that results will have to deal with the aftermath.
Or is there another way? A referendum bill free vote in the HoC perhaps?
138. lol. Fair point. Paxo is not devoid of arrogance himself. But he has given me hours of pleasure, so I will defend him. Especially against a festering little knobclock like Miliband.
136 - well i am a life long Labour voter an i agree milliband came across like a total cock
I think maybe I am biased in the sense that I like interesting inteviews a lot more than than boring ones. Paxo’s overly aggresive style is not good for politics - he turns it into a fight - therefore I thought Miliband pretty much “Pwned” him with his incredulous look in a way that has not happened for years and years.
104,119 - The rules recently changed on the electoral register I think, from a yearly update to “rolling registration”, the forms probably haven’t kept pace.
More importantly, I always thought you had some time to register for an election after it was called, so, barring an administrative mistake, you should certainly get a vote.
133. It depends on whether the son/daughter shares the politics of the father/mother.
Mussolini’s daughter is a very proud fascist, and has stood for election as such. Miliband rejected his father’s politics wholesale. He is not even old Labour, he’s New Labour to the core.
In the end you can only be judged on your own beliefs and behaviour, rather than what happened before you were born. Miliband isn’t the only son to differ with his father’s politics. Blair’s father was a Tory, and his grandmother was a communist - figure that one out! Alistair Darling’s uncle was a Tory minister. Ronald Reagan’s children are Dems.
It’s a free world. Children arn’t forced to follow their parents politics, you know. I expect your daughter will rebel against you and vote Labour.
“Like whatever.”
Given the valley girl dismissal and put firmly in my place. Thanks, briefly, for deigning to talk.
Miliband on Sky was talking about the ‘telegrams’ he has received from the ambassador in Burma.
Only the FCO thinks they use telegrams these days and Milipod’s use of the term suggests he has really been absorbed into the FCO Quatermass abyss. He is one of ‘them ‘ now and everything he says needs double checking.
Has anyone done the obvious bluetongue gag about Gordon’s speech yet?
140 - Interesting times in politics isn’t it?
Not really. I said earlier today that Brown wouldn’t have to do much to bring back his 05 LD voters, and I was right - in fact all he had to do was make a right wing speech! We’re in totally boring two party-one manifesto territory.
146 - “Only the FCO thinks they use telegrams these days and Milipod’s use of the term suggests he has really been absorbed into the FCO Quatermass abyss. He is one of ‘them ‘ now and everything he says needs double checking.”
Indeed - the first half of his newsnight interview was basically “well, I need to check witht the FO about that” - made for an interesting interview!
You ask after francis? Perhaps he has emigrated to Scotland… or Brussells…
140.”Interesting times in politics isn’t it? Interesting poll, but the key question for me is how will the EU issue pan out? The coverage from the Times/Sun was pretty stark.
My 2p.
I don’t think that a Murdoch led referendum with all the hysteria would be democratic. No chance of sober debate.”
Jonathan they have a double page spread on the issue tomorrow and an unflattering headline for Milliband.
144. Come on Snowy, admit it. If a Tory Minister came across as a total prick, like Miliband today, and it was then revealed his Dad was a Mosleyite, or a Hitler sympathiser - I suspect the liberal media would make hay.
Yet they don’t make hay when a father’s background is leftist totalitarian rather rightist totalitarian.
Like I say - curious.
145. JamesF - sorry if I seem dismissive. End of a long day of babycare. Pax!
I see the Mail tomorrow is leading pn the poll - women swing to Brown or something like that.
The posters who are rubbishing the poll are being a bit silly - as zebra Tim notes, it’s an impressive outlier taken in positive circs. I’m sure DC will make a good speech and the Tories will claw some of that back. But I recall both matt and seanT saying the GB speech was awful? And the Sun going on about the EU seems to be having zero effect so far. Do they want to be shown as paper tigers if they keep it up?
My best guess is that the decision will be taken Sunday week.I think May 2008 still the most likely.
Very perceptive post over on the “Other side” giving reasons why Labour might not want to go to the polls so early:
http://www.vote-2007.co.uk/index.php?topic=1751.msg32918#msg32918
153 But don’t you think there needs to be some public vote on the results of the negociation even if it’s a GE? Ever since maastrict people have wanted to have there say on the EU, even if a media frenzy referendum is clearly undemocratic. There is a boil to be lanced that wont go away. I don’t want it to explode on Labour.
BTW Marx just wrote books. Its quite a different thing to be sympathetic to an author than a mass murderer. Even your readership Sean doesn’t have too much to be ashamed of compared to the supporters of actual genocidal maniacs.
153. Dude, the speech, qua speech, WAS awful. Here’s what the Guardian - yes, the Guardian - said about it:
“In turn boastful, punitive and opportunistic, he lapsed into language that, were it to be used next week by David Cameron, would see him accused of a lurch to the right.”
Others on the same lefty paper said it was workmanlike, humourless, uninspired, etc. And that’s the Guardian. Others were less complimentary.
So we were right to call the speech a lemon. But it don’t matter! It got you lots of coverage and, yep, a whacking great lead in the polls.
A bad speech can be good politics, I guess…
155. Ralph Miliband was sympathetic to communism - no, let’s face facts, he was a COMMUNIST - after the Stalinist Terror of the 30s and the Soviet takeover of Europe. That’s like being an admirer of Hitler after the Holocaust.
Sorry, no. Don’t buy it.
But anyway, I’m knacked. Babycare is like Victorian coalmining, only more exhausting and underpaid. Gnite all.
Incredible - Lord Tebbit has become a Brownite!
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article2532459.ece
The Tories are dead ducks. I suspect the next election will be the last under that label…
158:
Another of those stories whose content doesn’t quite live up to the headline.
158. Really? I was under the impression that it was Gordon Brown who’d become a Tebbitite…
152. I’m not sure what the parents background has to do with anything at all. The Labour view is that each person stands on their own merit, and this has been our view for a century. It was the old Tory view that background was everything, and that for example if your father was born poor you were bound to be like him and automatically disbarred from high office. As late as the 70’s Tories were like this. I thought Thatcher put an end to all that, but apparently not.
Do you really believe that children have no free choice and can’t think for themselves and are bound to follow their parents politics?
no, let’s face facts, he was a COMMUNIST - after the Stalinist Terror of the 30s and the Soviet takeover of Europe.
IIRC (and I could be wrong), Miliband the elder was never a Communist - joining Labour in 1951, while always being on the way-out Mikardo-Zillacus wing of the party (of course, his seminal work was a survey of the Labour Party that was highly pessimistic about its chances of ever becoming a vehicle for socialist transformation). His closest intellectual friends were people like EP Thompson, who were CPGB members until they were expelled for opposing the Hungarian invasion. He collaborated with them to develop the particular approach of the New Left, which, via academics such as Stuart Hall, has had such a big influence on modern left-wing thought and action in Britain - even New Labour, and not just via the younger Milibands.
162
Do you believe that the milieu a child grows up in has no effect on them whatsoever?
What was it the left said about the daughter of Bush when she was caught drinking?
“The apple doesn’t fall far from the tree.”
This is ridiculous. If Miliband was a Communist I’m pretty sure he wouldn’t have served under the Blair or Brown governments.
But then, maybe I’m just being naive. Maybe there is a communist conspiracy afoot amongst the Brown Cabinet to secretly turn the UK into a communist state.
164. Rebellion by children towards their parents is a very common theme. I appreciate that there are very few Tories who grew up in Labour families, but there are tons of Labour people who grew up in Tory families, plus Labour people who grew up in Liberal families, in socially conservative families (eg ethnic minorities), and yes, communist families. The Labour tent is huge and varied (and other parties don’t really understand this about us).
Blair is the classic example of someone not following their father. His grandmother was a life-long communist (they were a poor Glaswegian family who lived in crowded tenements in the 1930’s). The Labour party was too right wing for them! Blair knew her and her views well. His father starts off as a communist, goes to war, which changes him, and becomes a Tory. I think he aspired to stand for election as a Tory. Blair had a rebellious streak (visible throughout his time at school) and ends up joining Labour in the mid-70’s - when everyone else was joining the Tories. And then he stuck with Labour, and refused to defect to the SDP, and became Labour prime minister. And before anyone says “he was really a Tory”, remember that the minimum wage was Blair’s idea, which he came up with when shadow employment secretary, and he was also very attached to Europe.
I would say that both Blair, and Blair’s father were each thinking independently, and were responding and being shaped primarily by their own experience of the world rather than what they learnt at home.
165 - Stranger things have happened: remember Jospin admitting that he’d originally been a member of a Trotskyist party which aimed to secretly infiltrate the PS. He’s never convincingly denied reports that his secret membership only ended after he’d become a minister in the 1980s.
I don’t think either Miliband is an entryist, BTW.
I must say the polls are making me scratch my head at the moment. Even allowing for Iraq protest unwind/Brown bounce/Brown solid performance/low grade Tory infighting, 40% seems very high in the context of a Government that has for some time been pretty unpopular and has had a rough time of it since the last election, when they polled significantly lower. 44% seems like pure fantasy - more than TB ever achieved in an actual election. Does it feel like that on the ground?
Decidedly not. On a straw poll taken in my office just now (pop: 1), the Tories are romping home.
More seriously, my sense from talking to the non-alighned is that things are pretty even. I haven’t detected too much of a slump in Lib Dem sentiment, though I think some are a little shy at the moment. I’d guess we are at something like Lab 38, Con 36, LD 18, but that’s purely an internal barometer and therefore slightly below MORI in terms of value.