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So will 11 Gordons influence the election decision?

September 25th, 2007

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    The Lib Dems move down as Labour hits a staggering 44%

A YouGov poll for Channel Four news taken in the immediate aftermath of of Brown’s conference speech gives Labour an amazing 44% share with the Lib Dems down to 13%.

These are the shares with the changes on the last poll from the internet pollster – CON 33% (nc): LAB 44% (+5): LD 13% (-3).

This is the lowest Lib Dem share from YouGov since Kennedy moved on and won’t surprise the party which has long complained about the pollster’s approach.

Clearly the timing was crucial. Staging a poll so soon after a leader’s speech of any party was going to produce a boost given the amount of media coverage that is given.

YouGov does not weight by certainty to vote though it should be said that in the latest ICM poll Labour supporters were almost as likely to say they would turn out as the Tories. This has been a sharp trend in the period since Brown came in.

This is going to affect the thinking on an early election and it become harder for Brown to resist it. What better opportunity will he ever have?

My money stays as a buyer of Labour seats and a seller of Gordon weeks on the spread markets.

Mike Smithson






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