Is this the day you should be buying Labour seats?
September 26th, 2007
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Why are the spread markets not reacting?
The above shows the latest commons seat spread prices from two of the main markets - IGIndex and Spreadfair - and from where I sit these levels simply do not fit with the polling evidence.
We are nearly at the stage, surely, where it’s going to be very difficult for Brown and Labour to pull back from the general election challenge. Last night’s stunning poll showing C33-LAB44-LD13 will almost certainly prove to be an overstatement of Brown’s position. In fact I am sure it will but it is becoming very difficult to argue that an October-November general election would produce anything other than a significant Labour majority.
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Yet with 325 seats being the magic point at which Labour would be returned with a majority the current spreads seem extraordinary. These levels will surely go up.
There will be a raft of new polls over the weekend and if they also show a further move to Labour then the pressure on Gordon to risk it this autumn are going to be almost overwhelming.
With commons seat spread betting you buy and sell like shares on a stock exchange. The higher level is the buy price and the lower one the sell price. Thus I hold a buy contract on Labour at 318 seats. If they ended up 358 my profits would be the difference between the two numbers multiplied by the stake level. So a £20 bet would produce winnings of forty times that - £800. I can sell the position now at the 322 level and still make four times the stake as profit.
Of course if things move in the other direction losses are calculated in the same way.
My biggest position is a £42 sell at 75 weeks on the length of time between Brown’s arrival at Number 10 and the general election. If there is an early poll then my profit could be sixty times that £42. Even if there is no 2007 election there will be continued speculation throughout 2008 and the levels will remain tight.
Mike Smithson
MessageSpace Advertising
Looks like the election really could be on…
http://news.independent.co.uk/uk/politics/article2998905.ece
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/opinion/main.jhtml?xml=/opinion/2007/09/26/do2601.xml
I think the spreadfair punters are looking soberly at the likely outcome.
We are pre-Tory conference, Nov 1st will be dark and wet, in a 3 week campaign Cameron will be on our screens. Our exec had a meeting last night and the idea of an autumn GE has set in - I was struck how they were spoiling for the fight.
It would be tricky for me work-wise but now I want a GE. Let’s have it. The last poll showed Tories unchanged and a huge Lib to Lab switch. Any punters here buy that? Thought not. Let Gimmick Gordon “a palm pilot for every copper” try his hand. I think the market’s got this one right.
Test, polls simply confirm local election results last week.
Are you a realist?
Test, polls simply confirm local election results last week.
Are you a realist?
2.5 years into the Parliament. Current majority of 66.
November 1 election.
Silly, isn’t it?
Dave, which by elections are you talking about? Not Worcester, I’m sure.
2. Nov 1st will be wet will it? Hmmm. I’m an amateur metereologist and I can assure you no-one knows that from this far out. It may be cold and dry, or indeed mild and wet or something in between.
Interesting that Oct 25th has slipped from consciousness …
The main worry for gordon is that bit from You Gov saying that obver 60% of th eelectorate say an election is not neccessary.
Unfortunately for the opposition Gordon has cornered them into saying they want an early election so difficult now for them to capitalise on the public mood.
Rogerh
You might be talking up your own position a bit here - I can see plenty of reasons why there wouldn’t be an election and plenty why Labour won’t do better than these markets suggest.
The market is only pricing in the average.
Possibly the smart trade is to back the election in 2007 at around 2/1 with Betfair but lay Labour as the party who are going to win the most seats at 1/2 on .
If an election is not called then the odds on price is bound to move towards evens.
Not so sure, Roger H (8), that the Lib Dems and Tories NEED to capitalise on this. They don’t have to DO anything. If the public mood is against an election now, then that is the mood, already set.
The result COULD be apathy on a massive scale. But which party will be hit worst by that apathy is hard to say.
For what it’s worth, I think the result in many constituencies will be determined by level of organisation, which means that the Tories could do unexpectedly well (because of the unprecedented levels of wealth they can throw at certain seats) and so could the Lib Dems, where they have a decently organised campaign (which isn’t everywhere).
re 9. I can always be accused of that Jon. My problem is how can I discuss things like this if I have not taken a position myself.
13 Quite so - hard to talk somebody else’s book!
11. Tressage. Speaking as a Tory to a LibDem, one of the reasons I am relaxed about all the post-succession polls is that I’m convinced they woefully understate the LibDems, who are the limpets of politics and who aren’t going over to Labour as these polls suggest - at least we’re not seeing it on the ground. I would however advise an immediate leader change if an election is not called.
Mostly I think this poll is utter tosh and I will stick with ICM as my guide.
When are the next set of polls out?
Despite the prospect of big personal profits, I remain unconvinced that we will be trotting of to the polls this autumn. Clearly there are some folk around GB who favour going in late October / early November and good results tomorrow and more good polls over the weekend might ratchet up the pressure, I still think the first thursday in May 2008 remains favorite ( and still profitable )
Test (14), I see no sign of any movement of Lib Dems to Labour either. But then, I am in a constituency where the real contest is between Lib Dem and Tory: and any movement this week (slight but certain) has been from Labour to Lib Dem.
What kind of constituency are you in Test?
No2 - Spread markets are a goldmine for punters - mainly because they tend to attract wealthy right-wing backers who often overstae the market for the Tories - traditionally the market will call it correct in the end - but in the meantime …
A good point was made last night about the value of the YouGov poll.
If polling directly after Brown’s speech can be blamed for exaggerating the Labour lead, this is only the case if the speech was a good one. Personally I didn’t like what I heard of it at all, but that’s a different thing…
15 There are quite a few real polls tomorrow night .
15 RedFlump. There’s an ARSE poll out later this morning.
I suppose I should come clean and declare that despite my bravado here the other day, at this stage, I have decided to NOT bet against an 2007 election!
PtP - your sober advice was most welcome
However, this doesn’t I’ve changed my own view - I still *very* much doubt GB will call it - it’s principally because I’ve got a guaranteed 40 quid on a Cameron remaining as official Tory leader between Oct-Dec and I don’t want to spoil the party by laying money on betfair on a 2007 GE at 3.45!!
If the odds moved down to, say, 1.8, then it would be a different story. I’d put down a good 50/100 quid then. Risky, but the odds would justify it. To me at least.
Why I am sure so sure Brown won’t call it?
(1) Winter Turnout - could be depressed for Labour, Tories will still turn out
(2) Character - GB doesnt want to look like he’s cutting and running - he has a reputation to maintain
(3) Bird in the hand - GB could trade a majority of 66 for one of, say, 20, which makes him a hostage to fortune. He will lose some seats to SNP, Conservatives and Boundary Changes. With the EU constitution still to go through, I don’t think he’d risk it
(4) Cameron - say what you like, when the cards are down - he is an incredible media performer. I fully expect he would rapidly close the gap during a campaign.
(5) Polls - Don’t believe ‘em. Look how the polls responded when Cameron blitzed it after returning from holiday in August? Most people are still saying they are undecided. A very great many of them. They could still change their minds.
(5) Lib Dems - I simply don’t/won’t/can’t believe they will do as badly as 13/14%. They will get 18/19% in the GE and sink no lower - in the worst case - than 45 seats. Browns gains from them are strictly limited to 5/6 seats IMO.
On the whole? It’s just too risky for GB.
I’d wait till May 2008 when he’d know just exactly how firm his lead is.
The Lib Dems will be working very hard this weekend preparing for a snap GE.
http://uk.reuters.com/article/Internal_ReutersCoUkService_8/idUKNOA03016720070924
I believe the feeling is the “juggernaut” can not be stopped now and some important Lib Dem sources have put the the chance of a November GE at better than evens.
23 but why are they meeting Shadow Cabinet members instead of their own party spokesmen?
Goupillon. Had you been watching a few days back, I made the same point, and basically asked “Why?” In fact, this point has been coming from the same sources for a number of months. Now this could be the usual calls to activists to up their activity levels or it could indicate something else (not necessarily the imminence of a GE).
I’ve no idea, Rik (24) - but no doubt you are just bursting to tell us.
One of the many interesting sub plots to all this is we don’t yet know how the continued speculation will affect the two parties. My sense is that Gordon has very much enjoyed the briefing and counter-briefing of the last few days, and that it is, for the moment, beneficial (for him) for uncertainty to reign. He will hope this can continue throughout next week, and that the Tories have a horrid conference because they are panicked by the prospect of an early election and the sight of some poor polls.
However, there will come a point that the media will decide he is not being masterful and surveying the land before properly informing parliament of his decision, but simply dithering. The media, and the public, hate dithering.
I am not sure how long he has got - a couple of weeks perhaps - but sooner or later the pressure to name a date or rule it out will become intolerable
26 Yes, Tressage, poor old Rik can’t stand the idea that another party than the Tories just MIGHT have Shadow Ministers!
lol there is only ONE Shadow Cabinet constitutionally and that is currently Conservative. The fading Lib Dems are just trying to get some credibility!
14
Does anyone buy it, well sort of. I have often discussed the floating 5%, these are left/liberal types, who have floated between the three main parties. The floating five, appalled by Iraq, went to the Libdems, then when Cameron came in, flirted with him, now Blair has gone, have returned to Labour.
The floating five have been joined by another group, Taclabs, these are Labour voters, living in the S/SE/SW who say when asked, they will vote Labour, but on the day will vote Libdem,this I call, ‘to KATO’ Keep a Tory Out. The figure for Taclabs, is difficult to asess, but it could be as high as 5%, so the Libdems are probably on 18/19% really and Labour 37/38%.
Test as someone, (Blue Harpie No1) who has always attacked me for daring to suggest that there could be, even will be, an autumn GE, welcome aboard.
As for the Tories, the ones I know, dont give a toss, they don’t seem bothered one way or the other.
23 “I believe the feeling is the “juggernaut” can not be stopped ” .. what, a bit like the invasion of Iraq?
28 Tim13. Have to say for all the use they’ve been recently never have a group of Tory and Lib Dem opposition spokesman been better described than as “shadows.”
Surely the whole point for Brown is to keep his own party on their toes and keep the opposition guessing. I haven’t a clue whether he intends an election, but I would be astonished if he ever publicly ruled it out at any point.
Haven’t had too many “defection alerts” from RikW recently. Maybe you missed that one in Brighton yesterday..?
29 Rik. Incorrect. The is nothing constitutional about “Shadow”. You are confusing it with Official Opposition. Shadow is simply a term of common use in political circles.
Flockers raises a key point on Brown and the “dithering” perception.
Have things already gone to far?
If Cameron closes the poll gap then Brown does not call an election it is Brown who will appear weak and the momentum may be seen to have moved behind Cameron.
If Cameron does not close the poll gap and still Brown does not call an election, the same may apply. Is it Brown who has backed himself into an election?
The reason why the polls spreads have not moved is because it is conference season and we can expect polls moving to Brown during his part, and possibly against next week.
What is more the one thing that is clear is that there is immense volatility about in the polls. We shall see that next week.
Thanks for that, Tim13. I thought for one moment we were on the point of receiving another defection alert from Rik.
Though the way things are just at present, with all the shine and glitter having fallen off Cameron, any defection is more likely to be FROM the Tories, isn’t it?
Polls are run by the media for the media to create news and drama.
Betting is concerned with reality.
If it’s a better than evens chance of an election, why won’t the price cave in. It is refusing to budge from the 3.0-3.8 mark. There’s value there for those predicting an election at them odds.
23
What are you doing here Marcus, you should be out on the knocker, tramping the streets from Brixham to Babbacombe, from Churston to Chelston. Your political career is on the line, if those Labour voters, switch to the Libdems in Torbay, it’ll be ‘tits up time’ for you
I was thinking more like August 1914.
38 I feel certain that the Quentin Davies speech was deliberately set up to bring across at least one Big Tory, either this week or next. They wouldn’t have given him the space or the airtime otherwise.
Indeed but if all this “teasing” goes on much longer and if in the end Gordon does not take the opportunity to do real damage to the Tories the more he runs the risk of damaging the perception of his personality that his spin doctors have been trying so hard to project recently. When I read the Indy article link given in “post 1″ today and similar evidence it only reinforces my view.
32 Tim13, will the Lib Dems have enough MPs to have “shadow cab ministers” if the polls say they are going down from a coach load to just a minibus of MPs?
**** BREAKING WIND NEWS **** BREAKING WIND NEWS **** BREAKING WIND NEWS ****
The breaking news is that WIND is reporting to JNN the contents of a new ARSE poll of polls that comprises ICM, YouGov, Populus, CR and MORI that gives :
Con 33.6% .. Lab 40% .. Lib Dem 15.8% .. Others 10.6%.
The PISSED Wells/Baxter Index with added SOAMES weighting gives :
Con 204 seats .. Lab 374 .. LibDem 42 .. Others 30.
Lab majority 98.
…………………
Sources :
WIND ….. Whimsical Independent News Division
JNN …… Jacobite News Network
ARSE ….. Anonymous Randon Selection of Electors
PISSED … Political Intelligence Seat Selector Election Determinator
SOAMES … System Of Amending Measured Election Scores
45. Still as mad as ever then Jack!
I don’t see why Brown’s constant will-he won’t-he waltz is supposed to destabilise the Tories. If there has been no election called by the start of the Tory Conference, then the Tories will be on a war-footing just in case. They will present a far more unified front and will not be able to indulge in off-message nonsense. The Conference will go better than it might otherwise have done - which makes an election less likely.
42 Augustus. That’s a wicked thought !!!
Are you suggesting that Labour would stage manage a defection in the week of the Conservative Conference !!
No doubt to cause maximum embarrassment it would also be precisely timed as Rik gives his fringe speech to the Tory Friends of Reading Equines.
46 Woody. PB still has its standards Woody !!
Any moment now a senior Conservative politician, will make the following statement, ‘The voters should be very careful, not to give one man the enormous power, that a landslide victory would give him’ When that statement is made, (any moment now) the sort of defeatism that Heffer talks about today, will be self evident.
How Freedland in the Guardian sees it.
http://tinyurl.com/2uoyhn
Defection? Lord Tebbitt?
Tebbit: Brown is the natural heir to Thatcher
By Sophie Borland
Last Updated: 8:30am BST 26/09/2007
Gordon Brown has been hailed as the natural heir to Margaret Thatcher by Lord Tebbit, the former Tory chairman.
Lord Tebbit criticised the Tories for being out of touch with half of Britain’s population
Lord Tebbit, the Conservative MP for Chingford, praised the Prime Minister whilst also delivering a damaging blow to his party’s own leader David Cameron.
He said that Baroness Thatcher knew exactly what she was doing when she visited Mr Brown at No 10 two weeks ago at the same time that Mr Cameron had been at pains to distance himself from her.
Lord Tebbit, who was the Conservative party chairman between 1985 and 1987, criticised Mr Cameron saying: “I think we lack somebody of the standing of Margaret.”
In contrast, he praised Mr Brown, saying: “I think he is a clever man and I have very considerable regard for him.”
In an interview with The Times which will be published this weekend, he said the Prime Minister was not “tacky” like his predecessor Tony Blair
It’s a remarkable poll. OTOH, if we go back to October 2003, when the Quiet Man Turned Up the Volume, a Yougov poll straight afterwards showed Conservative support going up from 32% to 38%, which was simply unbelievable.
52 Sean. Indeed. However the trouble was when the punters eventually heard what the “Quiet Man” had said they turned down voting for him !!
Perhaps Mrs Thatcher is going to defect. Indeed that may be Cameron’s only hope.
52. Interesting Sean Fear. If Cameron pulled off the same trick, a 6% improvement in one poll, then the current poll would move from LAB 44% CON 33% LDs 13% to LAB 38% CON 39% LDs 13%. The LDs can’t go any lower.
re 52 Anthony Wells wrote recently that last year the Conservative numbers improved by 7% following the Conference.
55. In reality, I can’t see the Lib Dems falling below 17/18% in an actual election. I’d have thought something like 39/36% to Labour would be a likely lead after the Conservative conference, but public opinion (as measured by polls) really is very volatile right now.
Would you risk your entire political career on opinion polls? Would you risk your entire political career on opinion polls that have swung so far - backwards and forwards - over just five months?
Obviously, I’m a biased Tory, but I would not risk a 60 seat majority on the chance that polling a few hundred people - or sticking a wet finger in the wind - accurately reflected what 20 million people would do on a cold November day in their local primary school. Go for it, Gordon. [If you believe them.]
57. A reasonable assessment and the existing LD seats will be defended very strongly limiting overall seat losses in the 10-20 range.
“Lord Tebbit criticised the Tories for being out of touch with half of Britain’s population.”
Well over half the voters rejected Mrs Thatcher and Lord Tebbit, and thanks to FPTP were stuck with them.
59 If the Lib Dems really fell to 13%, then I imagine their seat losses would be awful, but I don’t believe for one moment that they’ve lost half their support, compared to 2005.
just noticed that the spreadfair GB weeks market has changed rather dramitically ( though there wasnt much cash there so it might not have taken too much to change it )the spread is now sell 40 buy 79. Does somebody know ( or think they know )something?
56 Yes Blair’s farewell speech last year turned a 7% lead on Yougov to zero . There was unfortunately no Yougov poll last year during or immediately after the Conservative conference but by Oct 26th the next Yougov poll had the lead back to 7% .
I have not seen much of a “frenzy” yet!
http://www.thesun.co.uk/article/0,,2006420002-2007440679,00.html
Sid obviously gas not spotted it yet either as Hills are still currently offering 2/1
A largish loss in national vote share might not be a complete diaster for the LDs. They are better than the other two main parties at targeting their efforts and while seats they won last time might well be vulnerable ( especially the ones they took from labour )there isnt necessarily a linear correlation between vote share and seats won
Any Labour loyalists out there worried that there was obviously nothing in Gordon’s speech to stick in even Norman Tebbit’s craw?
Can you imagine Cameron being so left wing that he was getting praise from Foot or Benn? Brown is turning out to be more right wing (certainly more socially illiberal) than Blair.
Re 64: Perhaps the “sheep” can not get to the betting shops because of the F&M restrictions?
51 - Tebbit and Thatcher are both having great sport, giving “the Socialists” a complete mind-f**k! Hey, they are saying, we haven’t changed - but Labour has moved so far towards us that Gordon Brown has become, in Thatcher’s famous phrase, “One Of Us”.
And why shouldn’t they gloat? When Thatcher and Tebbit were in power, they put in place an agenda of the Right which made the Left apoplectic with rage. When the Tories were replaced by Labour, there was no reversal - Labour only gained and maintained power by essentailly keeping that agenda of the Right in place - on tax, on privatisation, on the unions, on the free market, on civil liberties. There was nothing much to which the right felt it worth raising the blood pressure. Yes, Labour are crap administrators and are hugely wasteful. Yes, they are sleazy money-grabbers who will cut corners at the expense of democracy. But there has been no fundamental change to get passionate about. The Socialists have been beaten. That was all that mattered to the Tebbits and the Thatchers (and the Murdoch’s?). The Right whooped the asses of the Left; and the Left just grasped their ankles and took it. Result!
However, I wonder if the Right is finally waking up to the fact that the Left knows it can’t win the Premiership - but is still pinning its hopes on winning in Europe. I would be interested to see if the complacency of the Right can be disturbed by the failure to offer the promised Referendum - a promise which the Right extracted as a price for its continuing acquiescence in Labour’s occupation of Government. Mr Murdoch’s latest positions via The Sun and The Times suggests so. I would certainly like to ask Tebbit and Thatcher whether Gordon is still One Of US if he refuses the Referendum…
65 A loss of 10% would be devastating, even for the Lib Dems, but as I say, I don’t expect it for one moment.
The Sun’s leader has this to say
At least Tory leader David Cameron gives Sun readers a cast-iron guarantee today that if elected Prime Minister he will let us have a referendum.
Gordon Brown must keep his word to Britain.
This fight goes all the way.
Seant may yet win his bet with JackW! That final sentence just has the ring of certainty about what they consider to be the defining issue of the moment. I doubt they’ll actively support the tories but probably won’t go rooting around in Cameron’s bin looking for discarded green tax proposals.
This spread betting stuff is hurting my head. I opened an account at the weekend, bought Labour for £1 at 323.0 and sold them for £1 at 323.4. My account balance is now 40p higher than my deposit, does this mean I’ve already won? Or must I wait until the election to collect it? And does it now matter how many seats Labour get, or do I get 40p however many they get?
Any help for this clueless novice would be very gratefully received.
Having done a bit of analysis of the various markets it looks as though the median number of seats Tories are expected to get is about 230, with LD’s about 47 and Labour something like 325 - with the Others doing very well which I personally doubt.
Hills have some prices out on next Lib Dem leader. Although this looks likely to be a Clegg v Huhne fight (and both are more than fairly priced, at roughly 4/5 combined) the following are also of interest:
Lynne Featherstone 33/1
& David Laws a whopping 66/1
73 - Do you have to have a seat in the Commons to be LibDem leader? Just asking….
On the subject of sheep I really enjoy singing along with the chorus in Handel’s Messiah when they get to the line “….and we like sheep”.
71. Andy D. The best adage I use is BUY LOW, SELL HIGH. This works as intuitively it is right. If you buy something to sell on you want to make a profit by selling higher than the price you bought.
So you bought lower than you sold and closed your position to the same unit stake of £1. So yes you have netted a profit of 40 pence. You’ve already won and can collect whatever the final outcome.
71 Yes Andy you have won 40p whatever happens .
74 - Technically I don’t think so, but it would be an odd choice to say the least - what would you do at PM’s Questions - have a runner from the Lords, or shout loudly down the corridor?
73. Aaron. Would you care to expand on the “word” you have heard in favour of a 2007 GE?
72. Jon. The midpoint for Tory GE seats on the spreads is currently about 243 not 230.
79 - friend of a colleague who works for a senior Labour MP - a bit “round the houses” so that’s why I’m cautious about it. I see betfair has rebounded.
75 No, Goupillon, the line is “ALL WE, like sheep, have gone astray.” In other words, we resemble the brutes. Although I agree, it’s a great tune, and the one I had on Sunday with mint sauce was excellent.
80. Ta.
50. FWIW I noted in that Freedland article that Bob Shrum is playing a big part in the GE decision making process. Lets have a look at his track record shall we….
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/columnists/guest_contributors/article412566.ece
It looks like they are taking on board some of the criticisms of previous campaigns from this 2005 article, but will he be able to break his duck at the ninth time of trying?
Betfair - Labour to be most seats after GE now 1.36 !!!
Unless GB stages an almighty U-turn on the referendum that he has been at pains to reject - thereby leaving his credibility shot away to buggery - I cannot see how The Sun can possibly back Labour now. Look at their website. They are gunning for him on Europe big time and I can’t see them making such a fuss over this and then saying come an election (which could be just 6 weeks away) “Er, actually it’s no great shakes after all - vote Gordon”. They have given Cameron some column inches today to make his solemn pledge to their readers, so whatever they think about the rest of Project Cameron I cannot see how they can do anything now other than back the Tories.
Would GB risk an early poll with The Sun actively rubbishing him every day?
Or would he just make the most opportunistic political U-turn in history just to win votes?
No, I still think 2009-10.
58
Agreed.
Suppose you went through a GE and got an unchanged majority?
What is the point of it?
If I were GB I’d rely on the CP to self destruct: they have been practising for years and eventually they will learn how to do it properly.
As for a Referendum, no matter what the pressure, GB knows whatever the result it will be very time consuming, take lots of political capital.. and he may lose. So it’s clear he will do anything to avoid one.
(And no matter what anyone says, the DT referendum poll has under 100k supporters. Congestion charging got over 1 million.
Says it all really. It’s for wonks, UKIP and people what live in Souf of the Thames. I see no local campaigns outside the southern counties - where GB ain’t realistically going to win many seats.)
All GB needs to do is sit out the pressure: and wait for the next Conservative defector/MP to beat his wife/etc.. On the current rate that’s October 2007..You know you can rely on the Conservatives as a group to produce at least one high profile muppet every two months to take the headlines.
And Mrs T and Lord T support Gordon: no mention of a referendum there I see.
A lost cause. Jude is the patron saint of lost causes…
Incidentally, in a bizarre article even by The Sun’s standards, Jeremy Clarkson actually comes out in favour of a federal European superstate!
Oddly, this comes after a few paragraphs of his usual entertaining EU-bashing.
Shurely shome mishtake?
74/78 - yes the leader of the Lib Dems must be an MP, and the two quoted are dead certs to hold their seats (but whether either of them would put their name forward for leader is more doubtful).
Still not going to be an election this year…
71 Unless you keep your trades until the final election result is announced the actual result is not relevant. If you buy at 323 and sell at a higher price you have made a profit. This is not betting in the traditional sense it is akin to buying and selling shares. You can also set your own sell and buy prices so dont necessarily just take the prices on offer. However with all this be aware that if you get it wrong the costs can be high. If you mistakenly kept your 323 position and the actual result was 273 labour seats you would owe spreadfair £50 on a £1 trade so be careful. However as a number of folk here will tell it can be rather profitable
76/77/89 - stjohn, Mark Senior & jgc - thank you, gentlemen, for your kind assistance. I am just experimenting with tiny stakes until I get the hang of it, let’s hope that in time it proves worth the investment. Thanks again.
Re 81: Thanks - I know I can be a little hard of hearing occasionally and I shall be very careful to check the correct words are actually being sung by the choir next time.
I still think that there will be no election this year. However, I shall be very interested in the local byes tomorrow and in the polling after Cameron’s speech. This may prove decisive.
Lord Tebbitt’s praise for Gordon Brown (which apparently is also Baroness Thatcher’s view) could have a profound effect on an Autumn election. Having Baroness Thatcher to tea is one thing, but Lord Tebbitt shooting from the hip in praise of Brown is something quite different:
(a) The adjective ‘Thatcherite’ has now passed from the leader of the Conservative Party to Brown.
(b) When David Cameron claims next week that the Tory Party has changed, we will have no alternative but to believe him. The Tories could find it easier to attract Lib Dem and Labour voters, but at the expense of some of their own.
(c) Baroness Thatcher could become a leading issue during an Autumn campaign, and one whose impact is difficult to judge.
Why do Tebbitt and Thatcher dislike Cameron so much? After all, Cameron’s views on a number of policy issues, particularly the EU, are similar to their own. And Tebbitt and Thatcher are unlikely to join a trade union. Cameron’s policy-making process has been highly analytical and he has stuck to this over an extended period. This approach is not that of highly populist PMs such as Thatcher, Blair and Brown. Unfortunately this difference in approach is being ascribed to Cameron’s class: in reality, it has much more to do with the natural way he tackles policy matters.
Overall, the result of the election is likely to depend on the degree to which the electorate believes that the problems of the county are such that a careful new look at policy is required.
In betting terms, this isn’t at all easy to call, but the effects of the unfolding credit crunch during an October campaign may convince some voters that a new start is needed.
91 It’s from Isiah - Chapter 53, verse 6 (but you probably knew that.)
70. Yes, I’m pretty confident I will win my bet with Jack W. No way can the Sun retreat from this position. Either the Sun will go neutral - hedging somehow - or they will back Cammo. They won’t endorse Brown unless he offers a vote.
My daughter will therefore get her tax credits in full, and not have to go hungry.
This is good.
I’m much less confident that we will actually get a referendum. Brown seems oddly determined to sit this one out. I don’t think he has thought through the consequences, long term, for Britain’s relationship with Europe if the people are betrayed yet again in this way. I reckon he just doesn’t fancy losing a referendum and hopes the issue will go away.
It won’t go away. At some point the Tories under whatever leader will get into power, and then all the pent-up anger and bitterness about Europe will be unleashed: it could be disastrous.
But Gordo doesn’t care about that. And fair enough. He just wants to govern without any hassle.
I shall spend my ten guineas from Jack on drowning my referendum sorrows. Should be enough for a very nice bottle of Burgundy.
How the Daily Mash saw Milliband’s speech.
http://tinyurl.com/2o9nat
The voters have pretty well made up their minds, nothing is going to change them now. The important thing about all of these polls is not, the difference, but the fact the Tories can’t break out of their 33% vice.
Nothing they Tories say or do, seems to make any difference. Despite all of the disasters, that any long term government is prone to, all the broken promises, the cock ups, despite all of that, the Tories just can’t break free.
May I suggest, that at the Tory Conference, they finish by singing the Millwall Song, ‘Everbody Hates Us, But We Don’t Care’ might do something!
Rather than buying Labour seats I have been steadily backing the LibDems to give a far better showing tha the polls suggest.
Looks like the autumn general election is off if this is to be believed !Cameron’s key task when Tories gather in Blackpool next week will be to keep his party from panic. But Labour’s continuing talk about a snap election is largely designed to induce that panic and to get Cameron to retreat into the Tory comfort zone of crime, immigration and Euro-scepticism.
One MP close to Brown told The First Post: “[A snap election] is not going to happen but I am talking it up like mad. It spooks the Tories.”
Cameron now has a mountain to climb. And as Tebbit’s intervention proves, the danger of his party turning on him - just as they have with his predecessors - is never far away.
I am having a liquid lunch today with well connected gents in suits and will try to obtain the name of “One MP close to Brown”
Be lucky all
Does anyone know if Hitler had an unusually large poll surge after his first Nuremberg speech?
Should we offer some helpful guidance to the Cameron speech writers for next weeks event? Reading Campbell’s Diary - writing and rewriting Blair’s speech for the conference seemed to be the major event of the year.
If Cameron attacks Brown he will look petty compared to the “strong” “principled” Gordon Brown”. Telling us all how rich his father was/is and what a super upbringing he has had, probably wont help either.
If he produces a program for action he will have to announce some actual policies. Unfortunately, actual policies might upset someone, and those unfair opponents pick on the obscure, less well thought out, bits and rubbish them.
Tricky job this speech writing. Any ideas anyone?
Two big developments.
One is that Ed Balls’ comments about which would really be the gamble, are the clearest signal yet of an imminent election.
The other is Tebbit’s savaging of Cameron and praise of Brown as the heir of Thatcher - to go out in Saturday’s Times mag. OK, for Tories this may not be a huge surprise. Tebbit has a high regard for Brown. Even so, this is such a mauling of Cameron and, per contra, such an admiration of Brown that it is only adding to Cameron’s problems.
99 He should attack Labour’s record, not Brown directly.
95 - I thought it was a charity bet? - or is the the ‘help seanT drown his sorrows’ charity…
86. Madasafish, you trot out the standard line about Europe - the people don’t care, it’s only eighty-seventh in their list of concerns, the petition about the Blue Peter kitten got more signatories, etc etc..
I can see why you do this. Superficially it is true, and it salves the lefty conscience for you to believe this: “OK, we are breaking a promise and betraying the country, but hey - no one really minds!”
However, I have a different way of looking at it. I think if you’d asked the Scottish people prior to Devolution what were their main concerns, they would have said the usual: schools, hospitals, rubbish collection, etc etc. You would never have got a majority putting Independence and Devolution as their top priority.
But that’s because people will always say Schools, Hospitals, Rubbish Collection when asked their main priorities. Most people think on a day to day basis. They see many new immigrants in their streets so they worry about immigration; they see bin men once a month so they worry about bin men not coming.
But that doesn’t mean the Scots didn’t care about Independence or Devolution, nor does it mean the British don’t care about Europe.
These things are background issues, subconscious concerns, long term debates. But They Still Matter.
We know they still matter because the Labour party decided the Scottish desire for Devolution was so serious - it mattered so much - the Scots should have a referendum. I believe John Smith actually called it ‘the settled will of the Scottish people’ - to have devolution. And he was right to do so.
Well now it is the settled will of the British people not to hand over any more power to Brussels - and to have the promised referendum on the Constitution.
Yet you dismiss this settled will as a figment, you say Europe is the province of loonies and UKIPpers etc etc. You did not dismiss the similar concerns of the Scots.
You may get away with this arrogance one more time, with the Constitution. Then again you may not. Either way, ignoring the underlying concerns of the people is, long term, a very dangerous game. And morally wrong.
Cameron needs the Uk to wake from its slumber and realisie what a terrible state we are in - behind the figures and stats - then finger the culprit - Mr Brown.
88 Does it have to be MP or simply in Parliament. Would being in the House of Lords qualify
BTW Anthony Wells is highly instructive. I think we can forget Channel 4 commsioning a similar poll straight after Cameron’s speech 4 obvious reason. Labour are clear in front. But Lib Dem figure is ludicrous and undermines YouGov’s credibility and this whole Poll. They are clearly embrarrassing themselves
22 - Your point 3 is generally sound, except that you don’t seem to realise the risk to Tory gains in 2005 from the “Iraq” Lib Dem voters returning to Labour. This will be the biggest effect of the Lib Dem->Labour switiching, more than direct Labour/Lib Dem contests.
Your point 5 is also confused. The polls are “accurate” in the context that they are taken, so you should “believe” them, I think. A full understanding of the situation does realise that they can also change as the context change, as you point out is likely to happen in a GE campaign.
The thing about an outlying poll like this, with Labour on 44%, is that it does also say useful things about where the mean is. Anthony Wells points out that Blair received a similar poll boost after his conference speech last year, but it wasn’t enough to take him to 44%.
The last time Yougov gave Labour 44% was in 2002. That was probably an outlier too, but it came not long after the 2001 GE and before Iraq had drained Labour’s popularity. Labour were popular enough back then to increase National Insurance to fund the NHS…
If Labour are returning to those levels of popularity, then an increased majority is perfectly possible.
With all this talk of fixed terms, I’d like to resurrect the Chartists demands for annual elections to Parliament. That’d keep MPs on their toes.
98 - Comparing Gordon to Adolph Hitler just shows how spooked you are. You have obviously given up already. Doesn’t take much, does it?
No point attacking Labour’s record, Sean. Blair has gone. This new bloke Brown is going to sort things out.
Mad I know, but that is what it seems like!
99: Cameron should make the same speech he will have been planning to make all year, and not go on the defensive just because of Gordon, the polls or the threat of an early poll.
I hope that this will be a classic Tory “values” speech, reassuring the audience and the country that he is a compassionate One Nation Tory, and setting out why after 10 years of Labour failure to deliver anything other than worse public services and higher taxes, it is time for a new approach, with public money better spent, deregulation, more personal freedom, less statist solutions, and an end to Gordon’s failed top-down approach. Let him give some specific examples of failure and how the Tories would do it better.
He would be wise to put some distance between himself and the more wacky policy recommendations he has received recently. He should accept that hiking green taxes and greater regulation is not the right approach to solving environmental problems. He should give us some policy meat that he has come up with having seen the reports produced so far and give some clues as to how he will approach the recommendations from those groups still to report.
I don’t want to hear him wittering on about how the Tories have changed. We’ve had 2 years of that. I want to see and hear him reaching out to and reassuring Tory voters.
I want to see some gravitas too. A few good jokes and soundbites are fine, and to be encouraged, but if all we see on the News is “whiney toff Cameron” squealing away then it’s curtains.
It would be wrong not to attack Gordon. He needs to set out why Gordon is not the answer and he cannot do that without a devastating critique on the man and his approach.
71,76&77 Well done Andy - don’t spend it all at once.
Hills have cut 2007 GE to 7/4
93 wrong about Tebbit - he’s a trade union man; BALPA I believe (airline pilots). Mrs T was always very keen on tories joining the TU movement.
My love of Mrs T died when she emerged from Downing St. to declare ‘We are a grandmother’ and Tebbit has long since turned into a bitter man of yesterday.
Brown is welcome to all the tory Gradgrinds,- I can’t think of a useful or helpful intervention made by Tebbit or Thatcher for about 15 years (apart from the BA tailfin one). If all they ever wanted was an authoritarian centrally directed nation living on tick then Gordon is their man.
It would actually be a liberation for the tory party to dispose of the Thatcher obsession and Brown is giving us permission to do just that. Thanks Gordon.
“I don’t want to hear him wittering on about how the Tories have changed. We’ve had 2 years of that. ”
I second that.
Icarus, the second tier opinion poll questions suggest that the government (as opposed to Gordon Brown) is still poorly regarded.
110 -
I think Tebbits intervention is playing Brown at his own game - if Gordon is trying to unsettle Cameron by appealing to the right Tebbit could be stirring up trouble for Brown from the Left of his party.
The divide and rule strategy was refined to perfection *against* Labour by mssrs Tebbit and Thatcher in the first place.
I think Gordon Brown is always in danger of being far to clever for his own good and I think he is in a far more precarious postition than he thinks.
As long as he has a big poll lead he is fine, but what about when he loses it?
I thought I understood spread betting, but now I am not sure…. Looking at the Plaid figures, does this mean that someone is prepared to offer a bet that Plaid will get 1 seat or more,but that no one is offering to buy??
The one thing that DC can use is announce some policies - say 5 easy to remember, cant be unspun and are costed properly. 5 policies that challenge GB to react.
5 policies to cover Crime, NHS, tax cut, EU and the army.
Gordo has no policies - nothing new for the queens speech apart from throw money at anything that hits the headlines.
83 - Yes! I noted that. Bob Shrum! Apologies all round to Tory posters then. Brown is toast. [You heard it here first!]
113
Yes but this election will not be about. ‘the government’ it’ll be about Gordon Brown, are the voters prepared to give Gordon Brown a mandate, everything else is firmly on the back burner.
115
What left is that Marcus, is that the left that moaned about the Iraq War, foundation hospitals, etc etc etc. The Labour left is a joke, it isn’t worth even talking about. If the left tolerated Blair and all he did, don’t think Brown will have too many problems from ‘em.
Now the Tory right, Redwood, Davis, who I should think are reading those polls, sharpening their knives, chatting on their mobiles, even as we post, thats a different kettle of fish. The right of the Tory Party are whatching and waiting, they hate Cameron and his gang, there is nothing they will love more, than Brown’s landslide.
first time 2007 has become favourite with hills
113 - I also agree. Cameron needs to show confidence in the new direction. I do not want to hear that we have changed or need to change, that is too inward looking. We need to be confident in a policy platform that is built on the change that has occurred.
We need to move from persuading the party to persuading the country.
83 Caveman, very funny
“…..hiring Mr Shrum for a presidential race means that you guarantee — stone cold, nailed on, utterly certain — that you lose.”
Some of Shrum’s activities have of course been arranged by that infamous Brownite “charity” the Smith Institute.
Will Shrum break his duck, the odds say yes. A new first.
73. If true, that’s incredibly long odds for David Laws - 66/1?!
Come on!
Always found him a more professional and sober operator than Clegg. I even find the guy eminently likeable - were I not a tribal Conservative I’d much prefer Laws to upstart Clegg and arrogant, boring Huhne.
I’d have Laws odds much lower than Featherstone.
Prob.. 15/1.
116 the 1 seat sell on betfair is almost certainly someone trying to buy PC at 1 seat but it seems rather unlikely that anyone would want to accept the trade as the chances of PC getting 0 seats seem slim indeed. As spreads on spreadfair are set by the market (similar to betfair’s odds) they do not always make sense.
107: ‘Comparing Gordon to Adolph Hitler just shows how spooked you are.’
Well, it’s a comparison worth making, surely? Just interested to know what happened the last time a bloke with noted psychological ‘frailties’ made a speech deliberately titillating mob sentiment.
120 - Pride comes before a fall. Be careful not to sound arrogant and hubristic as voters don’t like to be treated as compliant fools.
120. “Now the Tory right, Redwood, Davis, who I should think are reading those polls, sharpening their knives, chatting on their mobiles, even as we post, thats a different kettle of fish. The right of the Tory Party are whatching and waiting, they hate Cameron and his gang, there is nothing they will love more, than Brown’s landslide. ”
Dead right. That is *completely* what they are doing and it’s very sad.
I’ve got a couple of texts this morning gloating about it from supporters of those very same individuals.
I texted back saying I couldn’t disagree with them more… Tebbit is a complete lady’s part.
This sort of behaviour is killing us.
Well if there is an election, it won’t be called until after the Tories have met. Apparently Brown wouldn’t see that as playing fair..
Wonder what would happen if it were the other way round?
111 Hills have cut 2007 GE to 7/4
Currently available at 2.05 on Betfair in small amounts.
You might think, in view of the almost universal view that a GE is imminent, that this bet would now be odds-on but strangely the market remains unconvinced.
In Ed Balls speech this morning he steals another Tory policy of having an independent exam board.
120 I’m on the Tory Right, but I certainly don’t want a Labour landslide, which would be cutting off my nose to spite my face. I really wish my forebodings about the Tory leadership election result had been proved wrong.
As far as Brown meeting Maggie and Tebbit saying he is a fine chap etc, as long as the government is delivering on its agreed policies especially things like tax credits, NHS funding, minimum wage, elected house of lords etc most if not all labour party members are happy especially if it looks like the tories are in a mess. The media fluff of pictures in front of No 10 articles in the Times is just that media fluff. Over the years GB has been a master of the targeted message, reading the papers after a budget you would wonder if they were all reporting the same event, the Sun having stuff about tax cuts and the Guardian reporting increases in overseas aid and various redistributive tax measures.
There always has been a strong strand of thought within the labour party that has been socially conservative which will very much approve of many of the ideas in GB’s speech
127
First of all I’m not being arrogant, I see myself as a counterpoint to much of the arrogance of the, ‘Blue Harpies’ I can only look at the evidence, and use that evidence to reach a conclusion.
I am not interested in who wins the next GE, I think I know who, but have doubts, as to whether a fourth GE win for Labour is a good thing. I would like to see an autumn poll, because I think the voters should accept or reject GB as is their right.
If GB goes to the country, (I hope so) then that should set a precedent, for all PM’s who take over during a term. Hopefully the ‘Blue Harpies’ who of course were saying much the same, till the polls turned, will back me in this. Perhaps DC could put it into the Tory manifesto.
68. Very good analysis; as always.
One point; “But there has been no fundamental change to get passionate about. ”
Europe, Immigration and Tax are issues that I get hugely passionate about. But, then, I am a Conservative
Labour have signed away huge amounts of rights and independence to Europe and encouraged far too much immigration. They have also jacked up tax to v.high levels (council tax, 1% on NI and frozen income tax thresholds is where it’s hit me) then I’ve had to watch all the cash being squandered on salaries, increased costs and counterproductive welfare benefits.
Plenty to irritate me.
But everything hasn’t gone all t1ts up, it just hasn’t improved - which is why they’re still in power. Until there is a convincing reason as to why a Conservative government would be significantly better, it’ll stay that way.
The question Conservatives should constantly be asking themselves is; “Why should poor people vote Conservative?”
This isn’t just for the poor. It’s for middle/upper-middle class people with a strong social conscience. In 1979 it was “we’ll let you buy your own home” and “we’ll stop the unions making your lives hell” and “we’ll stop prices spiralling out of control”.
What advantage do we have now?
Let’s face it. Labour give them more money. They like it. They think we’d take it away.
How do we address that? How do we get poorer people salivating at the mouth with enthusiasm at the prospect of a Conservative government?
Answer that. We will have a Conservative government.
“Just interested to know what happened the last time a bloke with noted psychological ‘frailties’ made a speech deliberately titillating mob sentiment.”
Grow up. That description could be about any prime minister in any nation at any time.
120 What were these forbodings?
If the Tory right are/were planning some kind of “coup” in the Tory Party, would that really change things?
Do any of the many Tories on here, think that perhaps. If there were some kind of splinter group heading off and starting their own party that would be good for the Tories?
136 I think it’s more a case of “why should middle income people vote Conservative?”
Here is the link for those that have not yet read Ed Balls replies to questions on the whether it is a better gamble to go for a GE now rather than some “uncertain” time in the future:
http://politics.guardian.co.uk/labour2007/story/0,,2177333,00.html
132
Not a landslide, but you’ll enjoy saying, ‘Told you so, knew we should have elected Davis’ wont u sean?
103
I’m pointing out some FACTS on a Referendum. The DT campaign is FAR less popular than the DT campaign on road pricing. 100,000 versus 1,000,000 says it all.
I happen to think we should have a referndum. BUT .. it’s not a burning issue for most people… And your reply: full of angst and anger and annoyance says it all. It’s a minority who feel very strongly.
All your comparisons about Scottish devolution etc would be meaningfull IF we saw a mass demand for a referndum. So far we do not.
And I have to say: mass demand could be created by a systematic and clear campaign showing what is wrong ith the Treaty. Mostly we get hot air and rhetoric told by people who are fundamentally opposed to the EC. Full stop. I’m sorry. John Redwood is a headbanger…the Trade Unions want more protection… If these are the sort of people who support a referendum, I doubt they will convince the average Britsih voter…
Lets put it like this: it’s not a topic of daily conversation in the pubs I frequent…but then I’m in the Midlands in a seat which the Conservatives lost 20 years ago:-( and don’t appear to be trying hard to be winning back…. And if you cannot win the Midlands and Nortehrn England.. as DC is finding , you don’t win elections…
If the Lib.Dems do loose support the beneficiaries in a general election (mainly) the Conservatives - I cannot recall how many marginal Lab-LibDem there are, but I believe it is a great deal less than Con - LibDem. I would assume that if there were a collapse of the LibDem vote, the Conservatives would end up with a great deal more seats than the bald % of the popular vote suggests. I know this is a truism, but just pointing it out!
138. Sean Fear - was that 136 for me?!
I touched on that in my post. Many middle-income people won’t vote for us because they see us as mean, selfish people, unconcerned with poor people. They don’t want to be associated with that.
You must know how (ahem) “socially difficult” it is to admit to being a Conservative in middle-class circles!!
We need to tackle (A) to solve (B).
140 Not really.
135 spot on
134 - whatever party you support it’s always a good thing if they win an election.
All this ‘renew ourselves in opposition’ that gets bandied about when supporters are a bit fed up of their party is tripe. Brown understands that and so did Blair. An unbelievable stupidity on the part of many tory MPs means they don’t get the concept that you need power to achieve things.