Does Boris stand a chance?
September 27th, 2007
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Or is Ken certain of a third successive victory?
This morning’s news that Boris Johnson had won an overwhelming victory in the Tory “open primary” to choose its mayoral candidate will hardly come as a surprise. In races like this it’s the most well-known that usually clinches it and there could have been little doubt that the former Spectator editor fits that category.
But what are his chances? Is it possible that he could give Labour’s unopposed choice, Ken Livingstone, a run for his money?
On the face of it the electoral system should make this quite an easy election for the Tories. Turnouts are normally substantially higher in the outer suburbs than in the Labour strongholds. In 2004 the Tories had a substantial margin over Labour in the London Authority elections that were held at the same time.
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Alas there wasn’t much enthusiasm behind their candidate, Steve Norris and perhaps one in six Tory voters in the Authority election switched to Livingstone for the Mayor.
Will the same happen again? Will Boris’s perceived lack of seriousness count against him? Was Ken right when he boasted at the Labour conference that he had just delivered “..the first “Boris Johnson memorial lecture”?
It’s hard to say but Livingstone is one helluva politician.
Mike Smithson
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Who cares who wins - it will be a laugh all the way. I hope the general election doesnt clash with it so we get to follow it in full, gory detail.
Of course Boris has a chance, but he’s clear second favourite. He will have to answer the seriousness question much better than he did on the Today show this morning.
The tory party will rue the day they let this oaf play his silly games with London.
I actually hope Red Ken wins. Boris will be a disaster for London and for the Tory Party’s cause generally. As I said on the other thread, I hope he wins strongly on first preferences and then gets narrowly defeated by Ken on the 2nd round.
At least we’ll get to see more of Boris on HIGNFY once the contest is over and done with…
Boris still available at 2/1 with Blue Sq. As the early money goes on Boris, Ken is now out to 5/6 and 4/5 respectively with Sky/Hills if you want to arb now, though it may drift further.
BBC report on Osborne Spectator article: “This was because it was “fair” to say that the electorate had “no firm idea” how any future Conservative government would act, he told The Spectator…..Mr Osborne said Mr Cameron had “transformed the fortunes of the party” to the extent that “you don’t hear any more that the Tories don’t have any policies”.”
The electorate has no idea what Tories would do, but has stopped saying they don’t have any policies. Hmmm perhaps they have given up.
Well perhaps Boris will do a Brown and confound the critics?
My view of Brown has not changed but for many it has! Perhaps if Boris wins we will be talking about landslide re-elections and the B*stard’s (Labour party) being ground into the dust?
:lol: 
Kinnock is great at giving the game away IMO!!!
Bob, he would make an excellent permanent host of HIGNFY. But not Mayor of London. Whatever happened to “Shagger Norris”?
Boris standing will open the floodgates for the class bigots on here to have a field day…
So the Tories beat Labour in the Authority election in 2004. Do they have any control on what the Mayor can or can’t do? If not, what’s the point of the London Authority?
8 - Only a working class person should be allowed to be mayor of London!!!
:lol: 
Actually I like Boris and he is the way forward
9 - The Mayor needs one third of the Assembly to pass his budget. He currently relies on the 7 Labour member and does deals with the 2 Greens to secure their support. The Tories get to control / chair committees etc. but dont seem to get a lot in return for “winning” the Assembly elections.
Boris hasn’t changed too much since I first came across him circa 85. He was a clown then - a successful one, mind - and is a clown now. But if politics is showbiz for ugly people, then anything is possible. Don’t think he will be able to talk about family values, though….(even though I did once work with his sister-in-law, who was laughably useless but ended up, surprise, surprise, working for the Beeb)
Of course Boris can win, but he will only win if he can present a serious programme. A combination of a serious programme - built around crime fighting and transport - and his winning personality and wit, would be too much for King Newt.
5. What you have to relise is that if the tories had produced any “policies” sooner it would have been counter-productive as Brown would just have tried to muscle in on that ground ala cart or done what he has done anyway.
This way if Brown does it again he can only look completly pathetic. I do not believe in the long run this “flip-flopping will do much good for Brown - whilst it hurts the tories in the short term - I believe Brown is sowing the seeds of his downfall.
At the moment Cameron has more substance than Brown if you look at it objectively. What does Brown stand for?
Re people on the previous thread expressing surprise that only 20,000 Londoners took part in the Tory open primary - it isn’t really surprising when you consider that non-Tories had to phone a premium rate line to register to vote in the open primary, that cost £1 per minute from a BT landline. It was a naked attempt by Boris and co to raise funds for his campaign, and Londoners arn’t stupid enough to fall for stuff like that.
4. Boris Backed To 1/1 For London Mayor
Following confirmation that he will be the official Conservative candidate, bookmakers William Hill have seen money for Boris Johnson to become the next London Mayor and have shortened his price, originally as long as 20/1, from 15/8 to Even money. Despite the support Hills rate Ken Livingstone as their narrow 4/5 favourite, Brian Paddick is a 14/1 outsider and former boxer Winston Mckenzie a 100/1 outsider, despite placing £100 on himself to win.
“Boris Johnson has really caught the public’s imagination and has been slashed from a 20/1 outsider to 1/1 and we would not surprised if he becomes favourite in the next few days, “ said Hill’s spokesman Rupert Adams.
William Hill 2008 London Mayoral Election: 4/5 Ken Livingstone, 1/1 Boris Johnson, 14/1 B Paddick, 100/1 Winston Mckenzie
33/1 Boris Johnson Next Conservative Leader
I’ve always thought it was a mistake abolishing the GLC, although slimming down its powers to make it more like the current GLA would have been a good idea. Had this been done, Livingstone could have been fought against during the 1980s by the Conservative group on a programme like those of other successful Tory councils in the 1980s. Furthermore, the Conservatives could be favourites for winning the GLC elections in the form in which they existed under a Labour government (having said that, if the GLC had never been abolished, its elections would come on the same round as the counties - and so it would have been elected on GE day since 1997).
15 However when compared with the way of selecting the latest Labour leader and the Scottish leader - i.e. one candidate, no votes its surely a breath of fresh air ?
15 - “It was a naked attempt by Boris and co to raise funds for his campaign”
Or a method to stop Labour or other party hacks finding it too easy to rig the selection. Whatever interpretation you prefer.
Ken should be about 8/13; 4/5 looks a very appealing price.
10. The only time i went to PMQ’s i saw Boris on the back-benchers. I had not been drinking but i could just imagine Boris sitting in his seat with a World war II Tin helmet on!!!
:lol: 
Interestingly enough everybody in the office asked if i had seen Boris rather than Blair, Brown or IDS! Boris has a following and as i said before, you would not trust Boris with the Nuclear button but London Mayor needs a character rather than a technocrat. I think the London Assembly limits the damage any politician can do anyway!
19 - I think you’ll find the tories have already rigged it themselves! Ken must be grinning from ear-to-ear today.
21. World war II Tin helmet, sorry should have said German Tin Helmet!
16 - “former boxer Winston Mckenzie a 100/1 outsider, despite placing £100 on himself to win”
Perhaps he’s planning on “celebrity death-match” hustings….
Not at all obvious to me that Ken is even the favourite.
Here is a link to the interview Boris gave on the Today show this morning.
http://downloads.bbc.co.uk/podcasts/radio4/today/today_20070927-1038.mp3
Not the greatest….
Having listened to Boris on Today this morning, I would suggest that the Tories will soon regret this decision, who prompted him to stand in the first place? Likeable and amusing he may be, but he could just not answer any question this morning without sounding like the clown he is. The question about his response to a terror attack was below the belt, but left him floundering.
May I say I unconditionally support our Boris as Tory candidate for the London mayoralty.
Not that he’ll win, but my oh my it will provide us with endless fun all the way to polling day and three cheers for that !!
“The only time i went to PMQ’s i saw Boris on the back-benchers”
Not more Tory scandal….?
It seems that some of the posters on this site are still fixated on Westminster alone. Yes the mayor of London does matter and it should matter. The winner will be head of one of the premier cities in the world. He will have control of the biggest police force in the UK and a major transport system. He will also be a key player in the future development of the city with regards to planning. If the Tories win it dramtically curtail the ability of Labour to impose their will over the South East.
The second point which most people have yet to grasp is that the election is not just about how many Tories vote for Boris but how many Lib Dems, Greens, UKIP, BNP etc prefer Boris to Ken. This is where I think Boris will be a major challenge to Ken. Many Lib Dems would never vote Tory first but can be persuaded to select Boris over Ken on their second vote.
We have seen all of this in Scotland over the last 5 years. It has been a big shock to Labour especially. Politics is no longer about energising your core support but more about being acceptable to the whole electorate.
BTW Tories are getting clubbed on Spreadfair - another new low. Labour the beneficiary.
They are now trading lower even than they were in March 1997.
If we are going to have an early poll (Autumn or Spring), then the Henley Tories selection committee presumably now needs to convene?
Livingstone is astute but even Norris did respectably in 2004. Since most rate Boris as a more appealing candidate the likelihood is hewill do better. I still fancy Ken to win as he hoovers up all the Green 2nd preferences and quite a few Lib Dems as they no longer go astray with a closer race, but I still think it’ll be tight. Ken is no fool. He at least takes Boris seriously as a Political opponent
Are Labour acting out of the spirit of equal opportunities legislation in relation to their “recruitment” drive?
http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/nickrobinson/2007/09/active_preparat.html
22 - Sorry, only a fool could think that Ken really wanted Boris to win the selection race.
30 - I’m unconvinced, personally, that LDs will be significantly more likely to 2nd pref BJ: of course, there’s been some encouraging polling-based indications, but these have been pretty scanty. He’d probably do better among suburban LD voters in places like the “golden triangle”, but getting the votes of the more left-wing inclined won’t be easy. The Greens are likely to be fairly solid for Livingstone. UKIP and BNP (and the EDs) may well transfer, but I suspect many of them will either transfer to each other or simply ignore the 2nd option altogether.
If London is anything like Scotland then the number of people who use there second vote will be above 90%. Hard to extrapolate from cities such as Aberdeen to London but Greens second vote tends to be all over the place while Lib Dems prefer Lab. One of the keys for Boris will be to get the support of the Lib Dems.
Listened to Today program and thought Boris did Ok. The general attack on him is that he is not serious but this may backfire as many people think politicans take themselves too seriously.
From Iain Dale..
Jon Craig tells us on the new Boulton & Co blog that John Bercow isn’t attending the Tory conference. Nor is Patrick Mercer. Nor are at least a dozen other Tory MPs of my acquaintance. Jon Craig draws the inference that John Bercow may be defecting next week. I’m not sure the logic quite fits that just because you’re not going to conference you’re about to jump ship, but in today’s febrile climate, who knows? I have to admit that there is a lot of chatter about two possible Tory defections being announced at the weekend. I’m not going to indulge in speculation on who it might be as I reckon that it’s fairly libellous if it isn’t true.
37 - “Hard to extrapolate from cities such as Aberdeen to London but Greens second vote tends to be all over the place ”
I think past evidence shows that Green second preferences (and actually a lot of first preferences because we tend to do quite badly in the Mayoral race) favour Ken very strongly.
..fairly libelous… - does that mean they deserveit!
Ed Balls’ attack on Boris at labour party conference was tough and personal - I think we can expect more or this. The “Compass” attack showed how vulnerable Boris is because it consists entirely of published quotes - the guy has condemned himself any number of times in his loony press articles and speeches.
A remarkable air of anticipation at Conference. Brown was very relaxed away from the conference hall, just telling strings of jokes and clearly enjoying himself - certainly a side I hadn’t seen before.
38. Cannot wait to see what they try and “bribe” potential defectors with this time!
I think the defection to Labour is starting to lose credibility in that after 10 years in government, MP’s from the opposition will suddenly say after opposing the government for years actually i am sitting on the wrong side! It just does not stack up!
38. Several Tory MP’s aren’t going because the Labour majority on the EU committee have called an emergency meeting for next week to debate the new constitution, I gather.
42 - They must be attracted to Gordon’s charm
42. How does a defection stand up to a 2007 election - they must not be planning on standing again ??
Looking at the last London election only 80% of people voted for either Livingstone or Norris. That is 364,000 people did not vote for either of them with their 1st or 2nd vote. This compares to the winning margin of 161,000.
41. I bet it was funny when Quentin Davies did his speech, i saw a take to Dennis Skinner and he looked to be offering a low opinion on him!
:lol: 
Very Funny! The delegates looked to be doing daggers!
Even better on the daily politics, when Davies was asked about a question and in his whinny “high Tory” way said but Gordon Promised……….
:lol: 
Next time a sell a knackered wreck of a car - think Quentin will get a ring!
:lol: 
38- Maybe its DC?
“I have decided after listening to Gordon Browns inspiring speech that he is the man to lead us all into a grand Thatchterite Britain, that is why I have decided to join the Labour Party and take my place as co-leader of the country. End communication.”
WRT defectors, Jonathan was right the other day when he said “You should respect where you’ve come from.”
When Quentin Davies slags off his colleagues of 20 years, it says far more about him than it does about the Conservative Party.
38. At least if the Labour party get defectors then they do not run the risk of having a ‘faulty moral compass’ in relation to the “spirit” of equal opportunities legislation.
41 Agreed.
Boris has given so many hostages to fortune.
To select him as a candidate suggests desperation..
My guess is his gaffes will continue.. that’s the way he THINKS so he cannot change it.
He may very well win but I would guess he’ll continue true to past form, be disorganised and upset a number of key voters. His track record on that is exemplary:-)
Frankly if I were considering him for paid employment, the only post he would have would be clown.
41. BTW the Compass attack on Boris is here http://tinyurl.com/yrblvr
42 - Martin, I have often thought about defectors and what they tell their friends and family and how this affects them. How can you turn your back on decades of belief to join another political grouping? I feel a degree of sympathy for those that do, because its obviously not an easy thing to do.
49. Quentin Davies is a fool - he does not agree with what most Labour MP’s think nevermind the grass routes in terms of ideology. He is a shambles of a political figure, he says that the higher rate of tax should not be increased etc, which is contry to many Labour MP’s private thoughts.
You can just imagine Davies on a fox hunt going: Balley Hoe!!!
41 - the quotes in that compass dossier were taken out of context
http://www.thisislondon.co.uk/news/article-23410465-details/How+Boris+quotes+were+spun/article.do
My view is that an MP shouldn’t be allowed to defect. It’s undemocratic. If an MP feels he can only longer support his party he should be allowed to leave Parliament and the constituency party appoints a replacement. End of.
I see Andrew Gilligan has found a new job as Boris’ cheerleader. Good luck Andy, you’ll need it chum.
“Brown was very relaxed away from the conference hall, just telling strings of jokes and clearly enjoying himself”
That’s the biggest load of bollocks I’ve read on here this week, and that’s saying something!
Gordon Brown, telling jokes? Pull the other one!
” 42. How does a defection stand up to a 2007 election - they must not be planning on standing again ?? ”
That’s a good point.
Having a snap election will be worth it just to see the smile wiped off Quentin Davies’ face.
They’ll be no need to rally the troops for a campaign in that constituency!
Matt.
53. It’s their choice, what i would say though is there is defecting for the right reason and defecting for some hidden reason or objective. If Quentin Davies could stay with the tories through Hague saving the pound etc and then Howard (Europe and Immigration) - How come he suddenly decides to go now?
Most people say the Tories have moved to the centre since Cameron took over - how on earth can Davies be believed for his motives for defecting.
Speculation ratchets up even more as junior minister Barbara Follett has said she thinks there is an 80% chance of a Oct/Nov GE:
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/pages/live/articles/news/news.html?in_article_id=484289&in_page_id=1770
re 54. I think he’s upper crust enough to know he should be going “Tally Ho!”
58.
Defectors - isn’t it the five minutes of fame thing? Then, for most, toal oblivion.
62. I have never been fox hunting so i don’t know!
Maybe he goed pot noodle horn!
Stange trouser movement!
56. If i were the tories i would do a DUP thing and get them to sign a resignation letter plus £20,000 cheque if they defect!
61 - in fact Betfair’s odds on a 2007 GE are currently going the other way, i.e. widening, currently around 1.6-1, having touched 1.34-1 earlier.
65 On Skinner,a good story is the Jackson defection. Jackson thought his first PLP Skinner was gesturing in support. Apparently though Skinner was explaining to a friend how Jackson should be made to sing the Internationale with clenched fist before being let in
68.
This is just it, most of the defectors in recent years are very unlikely friends of the Labour party. Mainly they are people who are in the twilight of their political career as younger more competitive models have taken over.
69. Maybe their is hope for Nick Palmer MP, yet?
Re 67: Hills are still 7/4 which is why Betfair will not drop for a sustained period.
70. Sorry i meant Nick Palmer Tory MP!
59 Having a snap election will be worth it just to see the smile wiped off Quentin Davies’ face.
Having sat on the platform this week, Labour will find him a nice safe seat won’t they?
72. I am not saying Nick is past it mind or old! Just tickling his ribbs!!!
73. Yes they say this in the times. So the tories will get a swing to them somewhere then!
73. Can you imagine him as MP for somewhere like Bootle? Hilarious.
53 Generally speaking, I think the proper thing to do would be to step down (either immediately or at the subsequent general election) before changing sides. To do otherwise is a real slap in the face for people who’ve worked hard on your behalf.
I can at least empathise with people who change sides for reasons of principle. I have nothing but contempt for those who change sides because they think their “talents” are insufficiently appreciated.
I was at a wedding a few years back when a very nice Conservative Lady came in (a little late) and sat down next to me and with an air of triumph declared that “I am late because we Conservatives have been selcting our candidate for Mayor. Its great news: its going to be Jeffrey Archer !!
My jaw hit the floor.
Boris may not be a crook (although of course his ex-mate Darius Guppy is)- but who needs another Archer-style “character”?
I am with those who think that the Tories will rue the day- whether it is that Boris gets found in bed with a giraffe or some other more outre offence against sense and decency, I suspect that he will come to grief somewhere…
75. Yes he could ride in on his horse with a shotgun!
It might be highlighy educational though for him to mix with genuinely economically deprived people rather than just seeing it on the telly! I wonder if he will wipe his hand after pressing the flesh with the great unwashed of his new seat?
75 I reckon they should give Quentin Davies the chance to regain Bethnal Green for them.
79. I reckon he’d lose his deposit in that case.
77. Has Livingstone not had “interesting events” exposed in the media.
Livingstone cannot campaign on Boris past indiscretions, to do so would be hypercritical. It would also expose Livinstone to the “Moral Compass” fallout from Brown.
Well a pound a shot, kept the riff-raff from voting I suppose.
Boris, I wonder if anyone will pop around and ask Petronella Wyatt if she’ll be voting for him!
Latest on early election.
http://tinyurl.com/39gyhj
60 Well at the time of his resignation, he wrote a devastating critique of Cameron - not about his being too left or too right, but about his lack of belief in anything. It was a significant turning point in Cameron’s fortunes.
79 -
In that case I think Galloway might change his mind about not standing again… 
58 - More on Gordon’s ‘jokes’.
83. So what i wonder does he think about Brown and his Iron belief system!
:lol: 
Davies was had, good and proper that’s all you can really say about it! Very silly man indeed! From what i remeber his wife will be hacked off as well! She was very anti-Labour when i once spoke to her! Maybe she is the one Davies said screamed at him hysterically. That is pure suposition on my part and guess work!
77.”Boris may not be a crook (although of course his ex-mate Darius Guppy is)- but who needs another Archer-style “character”?”
Back handed slur?
Defections are only acceptable when the MP in question consults his constituents over his change of heart by calling a by-election. Otherwise, he’s broken his promise to represent their views.
71 Hills are still 7/4 which is why Betfair will not drop for a sustained period.
Quite correct, but I can’t see Hills staying at that price beyond 6pm this evening ……but who knows?
A previously sceptical Nick Robinson at lunchtime today reported that he was hearing of Labour booking individuals for an imminent campaign, although this could, of course, all be part of the charade.
60 “…at the time of his resignation, someone on Brown’s staff wrote a devasting critique…” that is closer to the likely truth. IMHO Davies finally realised that post Maastricht the Conservatives were never going to become a Europhile Party again so joined Brown’s Neo-Tory Party.
Labour are clearly scared of Boris. Why else would they launch such a campaign against him, even before he was selected as the Conservative candidate?
The reason they are scared is because Boris represents what is best about London:
Humorous, worldly, youngish, a bit untidy, a sense of history, outward-looking.
Ken represents what is worst about London: Self-obsessed, delusions of grandeur, cowardly, controlling.
As I said earlier, Boris’s challenge is to match a strong and serious policy platform with his engaging personality.
86 He seems happy enough to me.
Regardless of what any of us think about him and his defection, what is undeniably true is that it inflicted real damage on the tories. For that reason Brown will be more than happy if he can repeat the trick next week.
87
Well Private Eye do have a recording of Boris, agreeing to use his NUJ contacts to obtain the address of an investigative journalist, to so that Guppy can ‘rough him up, but not too badly’. Could be a tad uncomfortable for Boris if it goes out on the net.
58. It surprised me, Bob, but it’s true.
Conversation between 2 hacks overheard at conference:
Right-wing columnist:
“Don’t you think people will start getting tired of Brown’s ‘low politics’ soon?”
Left-wing editor:
“We used to think he was all substance and no style – we’re still appreciating the difference”
MORE TORY DEFECTIONS!
“Steve Norris and perhaps one in six Tory voters in the Authority election switched to Livingstone for the Mayor.”
85 - good grief, he hasn’t seriously been telling the Reagan “anti-communist” joke again, surely? How embarrassing.
It does rather prove that GB is the social retard most of us suspect him of being.
[93] Hislop also quite often hints that he has a bit more on Boris vis a vis Guppy.
59. ” How does a defection stand up to a 2007 election - they must not be planning on standing again ?? ”
Defectors on the verge of retirement isn’t a new thing…actually it’s the easier situation for them: they are going anyway, nothing to lose and just a will to get some sort of vengeance on their party (that has disappointed them)
79.” reckon they should give Quentin Davies the chance to regain Bethnal Green for them. ”
sorry to disappoint you but they already have a candidate in Bethnal Green. However Bleanau Gwent is currently selecting.
Will Boris visit a decent hairdresser before the start of the real campaign?
I see that the Evening Standard are also stitching Gordon Brown up for spinning his sub optimal involvement in his 2nd book “Britain’s Everyday Heroes” (sic) - the first effort having been remaindered, for Lord Paul to buy up in bulk as a favour to spare Gordon’s blushes.
A pattern of mendacity and gimmickry and overplaying his hand (pace March’e tax “cut” debacle) is emerging which a bored media will pounce on through a four week election campaign methinks.
Pride comes before a fall.
98…. and Witney!
It’s amusing to read all the comments from Labour supporters telling us how absolutely delighted that ‘useless’, ‘idiotic’, ‘liability’ Boris Johnson has been selected to take on Red ken.
You might almost suspect they’re secretly worried that an Old Etonian with a colourful past could win the Mayoralty for the Tories.
98 Blaenau Gwent would be an excellent choice!
The main issue for activists with defectors is that it is the time and money that the activists have put in, that gets the MP elected in the first place. Rarely is it on the back of the name of the MP.
In an era of more leaflets and effort than in the past, an MP actually owes a greater responsibility these days to his party volunteers and should step down for either a by election or at the GE if they defect. Essentially they have deceived the people that put them there.
If Brown is calling a GE soon, where is Quentin standing as he has said he will not contest Grantham and Stamford at the next election? Are there any safe Labour seats still available? Or was he promised a Lordship in return for the defection?
93&97 Do your homework!
100 Perhaps the DFES will require all of Britain’s schools to buy a copy.
104 True, but someone like Davies probably does seriously believe that it was down to him that his seat remained Conservative.
99 Andrea - you mean like Gordon? As the font of all knowledge, please remind us just how much he is now paying for his haircuts.
108. I’ll be seriously impressed if he manages to answer that one!
Hope you’ve got your cheque book ready Rog !
104 - Quentin Davies’ eulogy to Gordon Brown this week - after having been trotted out like a circus freak for the comrades to prod and gawp at whilst he grinned like he’d done somrthing in his Saville Row suit - was a nasea-inducing masterclass in sycophancy and was worthy of Stalin’s show trials. Remember Winston Smith at the end of “1984″? - “I love Big Brother”
Perhaps Quentin can regale them with his tales of supporting the Iraq war, Trident, fox hunting, his votes against civil partnerships et al - and he’ll have them in stitches with witty anecdotes from the merchant bank, his cellar full of fine wine and the chaps at the Beefsteak Club.
Hurrah! I can see the brothers falling over themselves to offer him their safe seats on a plate……NOT.
Re defections. I think it was Matthew Parris who said that when a Tory MP crosses the floor the average IQ of both parties rises.
107.Agree with your comments regarding Davies, has he indicated that he will stand for Labour in his present seat or elsewhere?
Be ironic if he is quietly berthed in some government quango.
105
Are u saying it isn’t true, there are some BJ apologists who say he actually dissuaded Guppy from, the rough stuff, but I think they are maybe, ‘friends of BJ’
I read the transcript when it first came out, and Boris the Jackel, certainly talked Guppy out of, the real nasty stuff, but of course he should have reported Guppy to the police, (we all have a duty to report someone who intends to commit a crime, particularly a violent one) why didn’t he? After all he will be standing on a law and order platform I presume?
Re: 98, Andrea
“sorry to disappoint you but they already have a candidate in Bethnal Green. ”
Who is it?
112 That was originally NZ Prime Minister Robert Muldoon’s line when questioned about emigration from New Zealand to Australia.
100 & 106 - ha-ha, yes, this “hero” thing is jolly boring, chaps - it’s all a bit of a “gimmick” isn’t it.
One of Brown’s “heroes” for example is that Burmese woman with the silly name, Aung San Suu Kyi.
Oh, isn’t Burma in the news at the moment, monks marching and getting shot at or something?
Who cares, old fruit - too far away for me!
And dash it, we wouldn’t want our schoolchildren to be learning about this sort of thing would we? Stick to English kings and queens, I say.
111 They didn’t exactly for Howarth, or Woodward. But where there’s a Leader’s will there’s a way! Btw Is it true Challen is now barracked with shouts of “My Lord!” whenever he speaks
114.I have not said either way, but I do not like seeing someone slurred on this site in that way.
113. Euro MP next time round methinks. He’ll be much more at home in Brussels/Strasbourg. Even less work for even more money and plenty of fellow snobs to hang out with.
Why would someone defect right before an election if they wanted to continue as an MP? Their chances of a good seat with their new party would be extremely remote unless some other MP could be enticed to step down with a Lordship.
117:
I take it Corporal Spaulding’s got the one copy to be sold.
117. I’m sure lots of people admire Aung Sang Suu Kyi - not all of them write incredibly dull books featuring her which sell almost no copies and have to be bought up by their wealthy mates, though.
117 - Dear Capt Mouldy
Listen very carefully - putting the Labour spin to one side.
There is a difference between the inherent merit of a book’s contents - which we could all agree on - and I have signed EDMs on Burma, and….
….pretending to have been passionately involved in writing and preparing a book, when in reality it has been done by flunkies.
Do you understand the point? I’m sure you do, so no need for diversionary points.
[114] Boris has some signficant questions to answer about his relationship with Darius Guppy. That is not a slur, it is a statement of plain fact.
123: ‘…not all of them write incredibly dull books…’
Was there a chapter on Margaret Thatcher?
If you look at the 2nd preference votes from the last election then they split Livingstone 13%, Norris 11%, Hughes 24%.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/bsp/hi/vote2004/london/html/front.stm
So if Paddick can get through to the second round his chances of winning are very good.
Rob (Paddick supporter)
——FREE MONEY—– ——FREE MONEY——-
Buy 2007 GE at 1.75-1 with Hills, sell on Betfair at 1.50-1
Harriet Harman fires the election starting pistol…
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article2544496.ece
127 Sorry can’t see it. Dyke would have been a Lib Dem break throh Candidate. Had they gotten him to stand they would have had a real chance. Can’t seem Paddick getting anywhere near
129 I can think of several hundred people GB might take into his confidence on GE timing. HH is not one of them
131 She’s got more than enough to contend with in her own constituency. The fact that her vote share has fallen by 18% since 1997 says all you need to know about her constituents’ opinion of her.
122. I’m sure private Spaulding has pored over every word of Chairman Brown’s enlightening and inspirational prose.
I just noticed Guido describe Mariella Frostrup as the ‘liberal-thinking man’s crumpet’. Isn’t she an old flame of PB.com’s very own arch-liberal, seanT?
106 If I remember correctly it’s on the list of books Ed Balls is allowing schools to choose from for their special gimmicky book money thing he’s arranging. All headteachers of my acquaintance (that’s 2) are far too sensible to waste money on vanity publishing books -they’re always rubbish.
Stage 1 of my bet with Nick Palmer ids in the bag - Go Boris! As for the Darius Guppy thing, it will be a reason for lefties to hate him (as if just existing isn’t enough reason for them to hate him) but it won’t play with the public. Boris won’t do trade deals with South American dictators that helps impoverish already poor South Americans to benefit relatively rich western Europeans - that’s good enough for me.
128 1.75-1 on 2007 GE only available from Wm Hill until 5pm latest!
132 You sure? Bristol East looks ok. Lib Dems can only threaten in theory right. Andrea?
125.Come off it, that is exactly what your first post was about. Campaign tactics like that are a turn off, I just don’t like seeing it on PB.com.
If there is to be a GE then Labour are simply pinning all their hopes on a Tory meltdown - it’s “meltdown or bust” for Labour. If there is no meltdown, then he’s simply giving Cameron a helpful leg-up in deposing a Labour Government in 2011-12 that would be a damned sight harder to depose if he runs long until 2009-10. And if it goes badly wrong, he might be out on his ear in six weeks - the “three month Premier”.
No wonder the Tories want him to bring it on. Providing there’s no meltdown (unlikely, surely), it’s a win/win.
137 Punter Harriet Harman is MP for Peckham
Greetings from a very thundery Monte Carlo.
I went out with the Bozza’s sister once. Rachel. Very sweet girl.
I also went out with Gordon’s new “best friend” - Mariella Frostrup. In fact, I’m gonna ring her up, and tell her to insist on a referendum. Expect a U turn very soon.
I think the Bozzmonster might push Ken quite close. People will vote for him in the spirit of carefree contrariness that they originally voted for Livingstone. It will be a rich irony if Ken loses for the same reasons that he won(though I think he will just survive).
Off Topic - the most horrible news from Burma. What a bunch of Stalinist gangsters. Ugh. I’m gonna say prayer for the Burmese in the Grimaldi church.
139 It does seem the most unnecessary Election were it this year since 1923. I think we can excuse Ted Heath in 74, he hadeconomic meltdown as a plausible casus belli for going early
137 and 140 Whoops ! I was mixing her up with Margaret Hodge.
139 - nail on head. It’s almost as though Brown is taking his cue of Tory “meltdowns” by what’s posted on a few Tory blogs and some disgruntled people at the Telegraph/Mail are saying (or hoping).
Biggest irony is that the likes of Quentin Davis, John Bercow etc, and even Thatcher’s side-switching is exactly what the Tories have needed to do for a long while.
140 Ahyes that’s Red Dawn. What’s HH’s Constituency name. It is not Peckham
136. Peter, you are determined to see Hills reduce the price on 2007 to Evens today! I still don’t believe Gordon has made his mind up. He’s certainly thinking about it long and hard, hence all the preparatory activity and noises. That doesn’t mean it’s going to happen.
If it does then the next PB.com party will need to be hosted by your goodself and grumpy-old-man!
145 Camberwell and Peckham
146 stjohn - only trying to help, the FREE MONEY was still there 3 minutes ago, but not much interest here apparently - I thoght this was a betting site!
135. Exactly, it’s just a bunch of gimmicks. That Martin Luther King was just a loudmouth, and they says his morals were a bit dodgy. We always knew, didn’t we, that Nelson Mandela was a terrorist all along, it’s just not “politically correct” to say so nowadays. As for Edith Cavell, who’s heard of her? Got herself shot, the silly cow.
Wouldn’t want my kids to learn about this lot.
145 stjohn - not sure GOM and I would make ideal joint sponsors for a pb party but who knows! It did occur to me that punters who benefit directly as a result of advice on this site might wish to contribute ananymously to a party pot to be held by Mike/PtP.
147 Yes with 60%+ of the vote I think she maybe alright.
143 How you get them mixed up
Anyone think that DC and co have been suspiciously quiet for the last week - its almost as if its intentional to have a bigger effect when/if they come out guns blazing ?
151. Them both being as inept as each other is maybe why Sean mixed them up.
So has the ghastly Labour confernece ended yet? Or do we have another day of it, to endure tomorrow?
” Anyone think that DC and co have been suspiciously quiet for the last week - its almost as if its intentional to have a bigger effect when/if they come out guns blazing ? ”
It’s called working like a tw*t !!!
Matt.
Barking?
155. On what ?
139: ‘Providing there’s no meltdown (unlikely, surely)’
Well, yesterday Nick Palmer was predicting that a meltdown could come about when the adoring multitudes flocked to the booths to give Gordon a ‘mandate’. I really can’t see that - seems very at odds with voter psychology.
157 - how he is going to become Prime Minister in 6 weeks time?
Planning his “First 100 Days”?
Considering new wallpaper for No 10?
150. Good idea Peter. Would impoverished punters with burnt fingers be allowed to apply for a grant from the fund? The Impecunious Punters Fund?
149:
Is Spaulding Brown’s literary agent or something - remorselessly peddling the wretched tome to all and sundry? We don’t want a copy! Go away!
‘Wouldn’t want my kids to learn about this lot.’
It seems the public at large are overwhelmingly in agreement with you, doesn’t it? What an appalling bunch of ignorant peasants they must be.
Or could it be - just possibly - that they don’t want to be bored to tears reading something written by your Dear Leader?
151 and 153 I find them equally irritating and inept.
WRT the election, I think it all comes down to the post-Conservative conference polls. If the Conservatives enjoy the sort of bounce they did at the end of August, then I’d be surprised if GB called an election (although the momentum may be unstoppable by then). If there’s no, or little, bounce, then I’m quite sure he’ll call it.
So, David Cameron and his colleagues have to give the speeches of their lives.
Re:possible election date. Has anyone pointed out that Oct. 25 is in many areas right in the middle of school half term? This could affect turnout.
160 Hopefully, with the mostly sound advice on here, most pb punters are in the black - cue for Brown to announce no GE this year!
164 Think that’s one of the reasons there’s more talk about Nov 1 - when I will be on holiday in Florida, so have to mes around with a postal vote! Go October, Gordon.
The only way Boris can win this is if Livingstone does something stupid again like comparing a Jewish reporter to a concentration camp guard, thumping his pregnant girlfriend while pissed, or throwing a party guest off a ten-foot high wall outside his house and breaking his….er, where is my lawyer?
Captain Spaulding may refer to one of the following:
a) Captain Spaulding, a Groucho Marx character.
b) Captain Spaulding, a character from the Rob Zombie films House of 1000 Corpses and The Devil’s Rejects.
c) Captain Calvin Spaulding, a minor character played by Loudon Wainwright III in 3 1975 episodes of M*A*S*H (TV series).
d) Captain Spaulding, a hardcore punk band based in Galway, Ireland
which could be the inspiration for our intrepid Captain?
a) was probably funny, so clearly not
d) might be entertaining so definitely not
c) ‘a minor character’ sounds promising..
b) a zombie film character…a reanimated corpse with no mind of its own? getting very warm…
Gordon has not much to gain and a lot to lose - no election until 2009.
One guarantee is that it will be an interesting contest, with enough gaffes on both sides to keep us all entertained - and then Paddick too. Still not sure Boris can win, unless Livingstone seriously messes it up. Plenty Tories concede he is a clown
Kinnock has been reported as saying there is no way, no way that Brown can loose an autumn election! He then went on too say that - that would become the challange!!!
(Small mini-punch at the b*stards)
171. Kinnock should be taken seriously, as an expert on losing apparently unlosable elections.
164 …yeh, about a w