Is Gord waiting for the polls after this?
September 27th, 2007
What margin would trigger a visit to see the Queen?
For all the bravado, leaking, teasing and wind-ups Gord is not going to risk his premiership on the basis of current polling evidence. What he needs to see is how the public react after they’ve been exposed to the Tories and, in particular, to the big speech by David Cameron.
For much of the poll movement to Labour has been driven by the almost total news blackout from the Tories during Brown’s return from holiday, the Lib Dems conference and then, this week, Labour in Bournemouth.
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What will be at the back of their minds is the extent of damage to the Tories that September has caused - for it’s only four weeks ago that YouGov’s Labour leader dropped a staggering seven points in a fortnight and ComRes was showing the two parties neck and neck.
No doubt Gord will have plans to distract attention from the coverage of Cameron’s speech but he needs to see how the public react. If the polls move back to the August levels then it will, surely, be too risky.
If however the conventional pollsters, ICM and Populus in particular, are reporting margins of 6-7 points or more then I believe there’s a good chance that Gord will chance it.
One thing’s for sure - next week is going to be one of the biggest weeks in British politics for a long long time.
Mike Smithson
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I still think this GE stuff is a load of old rubbish. Like the jobs thing, I have just discovered in todays Times that Labour admit that the people being recruited will not start until after the start of November.
I really think Brown might get punished should opposition parties be bothered to do anything.
1 - looks like it might happen!
Camo in power by November!!!!
1 I don’t know. That said Cameron has a record of rising to the occasion as he did famously in 2005 when he turned the contest on its head in one speech. He’ll know he needs to match that
2. Yes! Go for it Gordon!
1 - as I said in the previous thread, the civil service is certainly making moves towards preparing for an election - to suspend a series of talks going on for several months over mass redundancies in this way - with the massive financial consequences it will have for the staffing budgets in next years plans - isn’t done on a whim.
Interestingly, I think that Brown’s movement on so many issues will hurt him big style in the long run.
It will be interesting to see how the disafected in the Labour party grow in numbers from 21%, if the “Autumn GE” that has been so heavily touted and spun fails to materialise. The thing that many have forgotten who commentate on such matters is that the electrate usually only pays real attention when elections loom. Well, this is a double edged sword when you keep raising the prospect, then lower it - then raise it. It lacks credibility and shows uncertainty and more importantly lack of decisiveness.
ALL -lets avvvvvvvvv it!
What did I tell you all 2 months ago?
5:
I remember a Pimpernel posting on the sadly defunct Vote-2005 who told me the Iraq war would boost Labour’s Muslim vote. You’re not him are you?
There seems to be quite a lot of talk about November 8. This would mean Parliament reconvening for four reasons:
A public spending statement; more money for schools, hospitals
A statement on Iraq; time-table for withdrawal?
A statement on Northern Rock promised by Darling
A vote of Parliament dissolve itself( Didn’t GB hint at this when he promised more of a role for Parliament?).
I’m not sure what deadline that implies for decision making. Ideally GB would want to wait, not just for the weekend after next, but a little afterwards so that any post Tory Conference boost disappears and he can see the underlying position.
I agree with Mike that 6-7 is about the mark but he won’t just be going on published polls but also soundings from the marginals( listening to MPs and Party agents whose judgement is trusted) and other unpublished data ( eg Mattinson’s analyses).
I expect DC to do well next week but it remains to be seen whether Labour really do have substantial bombshells ready to derail him. They could come either on saturday evening, timed for the Sundays or on Wednesday to wreck DC’s speech.
If the polls this weekend lie at 6 per cent it’s probably time to lay an early election because the odds favour a narrowing following the Tory Conference. If we’re talking double digits then an early election will be favourite. I wouldn’t be surprised to see 8s which would leave things nicely poised!
The key argument in favour is that things are unlikely to get better for Labour. Waiting for May is therefore a big risk in its own rite ( something some posters here and Adam Boulton can’t seem to grasp!). I’m not surprised that the greybeards are hesitating whilst the young turks want to go for it. That’s what you’d expect.
One thing is for sure if a successful Tory Party Conference succeeds in halting an autumn election it will be a huge boost for the Tories. I doubt that the reaction of Labour MPs will be ‘bring on May’. It could easily mean a long slow retreat from November to May 2008 to May 2009 and even beyond…
Surely Labour’s own polling in the marginals plus trying to measure the SNP bandwaggon effect in Scotland will be the key factors,as oppossed to national polls.
Cameron appears to have the unusual approach of being able to hold back, most politicians can’t wait to give instant responses. It’s worked so far, next week will be important to see if it still works.
Heard the red flag being sung just now on Sky, were they doing it sarcastically or something? This was the most right wing labour party conference in living memory, perhaps ever. I wouldn’t be surprised if the tory conference shows them tacking beyond labour into the centre at this rate. How they got themselves into this state god alone knows, maybe it’s slavishly following votes rather than having anything resembling guiding principles.
I actually think that the vote in parliament for an election will be rather amusing. It is likely even in the event of a “national swing to Labour” that some Labour MP’s will lose their seats for regional factors! It will be funny wathching Turkeys vote for Christmas!!!
:lol: 
Any reason we couldn’t have an election in December?
Lets av it on Christmas eve for a laugh……….
14. Don’t think so! Politically it might not be deemed the best time of year though!
10 I totally agree. Previously I had thought next year more probable than this, but GB has let things reach such a pitch that if DC pulls it off next week and GB stands the troops down the anti climax will be so big I think 2008 knocked out the window. Were that to occur I think all the Media attention would switch to Boris v Ken as would the Party machines seeking to test their Strength
The details of the 6 UK general elections to have been held during during the month of November produce a few interesting facts:-
1. The Labour Party have not won any of the 6 general elections to be held in the UK during the month of November.
2. In the last UK November general election, held on 14 November 1935, the Conservatives were the largest party with 387 seats. The National Labour party vote collapsed and Ramsay MacDonald, its scottish born leader lost his seat.
3. The Conservative Party have won 5 of the 6 elections to have taken place in the UK during November. The only exception being 15 November 1837 when they gained 41 seats but lost narrowly to the Whigs.
I seem to rember that in the run up to 1997, Christmas was mooted - then early Jan to “catch” Labour out! Maybe they would have lost less seats?
People say that if Major had gone earlier before 1992 he would not have won but i think a case could have been made for him winning an earlier election more easily. I don’t think 5 year parliamnets work succesfully for governments as a whole. 4 is deffinatly the best!
Like I said last night, I can see this all ending in tears for the Clunking One.
A quick thought on defections - given the response to Brown’s lurch to the right it would be an awful time to reveal any tory defectors, in fact it might be the last straw for some.
If Brown isn’t stark staring bonkers he would be best revealing some high profile non-aligned person, someone to do with fighting crime maybe, or maybe from another area where there has been awful recent publicity.
16: I agree - too close to Christmas and people will be too interested in buying presents, Christmas parties etc. Could lead to a very low turnout.
18: What about December? Has there ever been an election in December?
22 - When would be the absolute worst time for an election regarding turnout? Last two weeks in July, middle of January?
18 Before we get carried away with this idea that winter nights are bad for Labour, bear in mind the Dudley West byelection was held in December 1994 and had the biggest Con-Lab swing (29%) since the war.
21. What if an MP was about to defect from the Labour party?
24. That was a by-election though! We are talking GE’s here and this can mean mild and warm in the south west and 2 foot of Snow in the North! (Unlikly i know but there is always a threat!) I would not want to be a government that is up for re-election and the need of Cold weather payments arose!
23: I’m not really sure. I agree neither wouldn’t be good. In Mid January many are short of cash, if the credit crunch is biting it will hardly be the best time for a Government to go.
July, certainly people would be away but no more so than throughout the summer I would have thought. You have long days so at least there is plenty of daylight to vote in.
Given the short amount of daylight hours in January, potential weather issues and people being broke after Christmas I’d say January is probably the worst time.
21 Wishful thinking on a monumental scale
25 Interesting theory. But back on Planet Earth who was the last MP to defect to another Party that was behind their Party in the Polls (between the big two)………. Enough said I think
22. There have been 4 general elections in December(but none since 1923). The Conservatives ended up being the largest party in each except for 1868 when Gladstone won for the Liberals.
27 August even in 1945 they rushed to hold the Poll in July
25 - I don’t think that defections in a blaze of publicity ever look good, they reflect equally badly on the defector and those who receive them with open arms.
Brown might be boosted if he got a lib dem MP but, quite frankly, any lib dem MP defecting to labour wouldn’t be very liberal in the first place. The tory right would similarly be vexed by any labour defection and that would make Cameron’s job even harder.
29 1868 eh? Ming’s 1st campaign?
25. I’ve always been amazed that Frank Field and Kate Hoey have never defected to the Tories.
28. Our favourite Turnip Quintin Davies did!
:lol: 
Brown has irritated some MP’s, maybe they are biding their time?
30. Would August be less desirable than January even?
21 - Wishful in what way? That Brown could control himself and not resist parading another right wing trophy (unlikely on present form I know). That labour voters have given up caring about how far they have drifted away from their roots?
From Iain Dale’s Blog:
‘Hmmmm. I’m told that Regional Labour Party organisers have been called together tonight for an urgent meeting. Wonder what that would be about then.’
A 2007 election is now odds-on on Betfair, the price having steadily fallen all day.
34 I think the Polls were clearly about to take an upward tick as all knew
36 Wishful in that after all the water under the Bridge already you think there are any such straws. Frankly if GB were to parade Bill Cash as a Labour MP on Sunday Tribune et al would probably still cheer
Frank Field, yes and no. Certainly i could share a lot of the policy he advocates. A very interesting piece in the times yesterday; to which field contributed.
Look at it this way though, Field is a Euro-sceptic & he is also a man that most Tories would embrace in areas such as Welfare reform as he is easily the most thoughtful, well read and authoritative individual on the Labour benches in this area. However, i think his views on taxation and other areas of key policy are disjointed from the tories. Certainly on our old friend Quentin Davies and his defection Field could sit with the tories. But why would he want to? He has about the 5th safest Labour seat! His majority is bigger than Nick Palmers vote!!!
:lol: 
Kate Hoey, i think is pro-hunting and possibly a euro - sceptic but again there economic views are probably to the left. That German women from Brum is another, who has been tauted as a faithless one with Brown. But other than the occasional discrete conversation that these figures have i have no notice of impending defections from Labour!
Dark clouds on horizon according to Goldman
http://tinyurl.com/2alzyd
Could be a reason to go in November. Though I think Labour would shed share during the actual campaign as against the phony war almost certainly Brown would get back, albiet with a lower majority. Economic downturn though would make an election before 2010 unlikely if he bottles this chance. Before then however Labour would be considering his successor and we’d be back to the will he serve a full term questions.
Still think Nick Robinson was on to something when he asked if Brown was a one election leader. If he intends to stand again in 2011 then go after the Diamond Jubilee /Olympics perhaps it makes sense to get his mandate now, but there’s a strong chance that the new generation will want their chance before 2012/2013. If he goes now will the strains be showing in 2009?
41. There is a westminister rumour that he has a health problem - think that was Robinson’s motive. Probably just a rouse at getting a sympathy vote knowing Brown!
I suspect that if Brown calls an early election he may live to regret it. An election can not be uncalled, and events do not stop to accomadate the political imperatives. The markets are still edgy and October is the traditional time for the stock market earth to move.
42. Sorry should say potential health problem.
41. The move for an early election has always been about the economy. Labour has dismally failed in every single policy area with the exception of the economy - so that economic ’success’ is the only source of legitimacy the party has. Rather like one of the military dictatorships in Latin America in the 1970s or the Chinese ‘communist’ party of today.
If the economy weakens significantly, Labour will go in to meltdown. That might not happen of course - but why take the chance?
28. Richard Balfe MEP defected from Labour to the Tories in 2002.
Remember this: since 2005, the lead has changed decisively 4 times.
Upto Cameron’s election, Labour were ahead by about 6-8%.
1. Cameron’s election propelled the Tories to about a 2% lead.
2. Over the next 5 months this eroded, putting Labour back in front by about 2%.
3. Prescott and Cash for Honours boosted the Tories to a 4-6% lead, which they held for over a year.
4. On Brown’s ascension, the Tory lead evaporated overnight, and Labour now has a 4-6% lead.
5. Only a fool would say this could not change for a fifth time.
6. Brown is no fool. Therefore there will be an election shortly…
43. Well given that Brown ripped off Gore; maybe their is a portent to a UK election here? Gore was miles ahead for most of the time running upto the 2000 election. Before some smart arse says anything Cameron is head and shoulders above Bush in interlect!
46 Or that is could not change in an election campaign. Ask Harold Wilson’s ghost if you wish
Punter CCO certainly don’t agree with you about defectors. It could easily produce an avalanche of bad press. Fingers crossed.
As far as GB being a one election leader, I doubt that’s how he sees himself. Whether that’s realistic is another matter.
48. Wilson had been PM for over 5 years. The country had been through disastrous economic times. The Tories were rampant at by-elections and local elections. Polls were less sophisticated than they are now. I’ve always thought it a miracle that Wilson came anywhere near to holding on in 1970. He should have lost by a country mile… I guess it came down to personalities. People liked Wilson for all his faults, and they didn’t warm to Heath.
martin - as you’re so keyed into westminster, care to share the rumour? or is it just your rather fevered interlect (sic) running into overdrive again?
:) 
49 Agree with me about what? My point was that UK Paul was dreaming if he thought the Labour Party wouldn’t cheer to the rafters a defector were it even Bill Cash as the most nutty suggestion I can think
I expect Cameron this year to be as bad this year as he was brilliant two years ago. It worked well back then when he could be similar to Blair but slightly more sincere. But politics has moved on from the era of superficiality. Blair is gone; Kennedy gone…
Gravitas is back in vogue - which is why I think Huhne has the edge over Clegg…
51. Alleged Blood pressure and DR. visitation!
54. It is a grape vine rumour, you never know whether it is true or not but i work on the premis that there is no smoke without fire!
Punter.
Many apologies. That’s the danger of posting too fast. I was referring to UK Paul.
52. Well Enoch supported them in 1974 or said vote for them! I have no doubt that Brown would welcome Adolf Hitler into the Labour party if he thought it would get him votes!
:lol: 
They do have a similar nose profile after all!!!
:lol: 
50 I’m not suggesting it will happen. But GB is a Historian and it is a sobering warning albeit with all your caveats. There had been a period of Tory leads but going into 1970 the polls perked up Harold was urged to change his plans and seize the moment, and he did overruling the cautious counsel of Michael Foot and others. GB is a Historian and for all the differences you can bet he’ll weigh that as much as Callaghan’s postponement in 1978
Might Brown not call an election during the Tory Conference to really mess them around? Or would people consider that just not cricket?
Either way it’s a big moment for Cameron. The public are increasingly discontent with him, but my guess is that the situation is not irredeemable. He just needs to put flesh on the bones. Although judging by his guff on marriage and Inheritance Tax it’s going to be more flab than muscle.
I think he could raise a few hairs and cause Brown some serious discontent if he:
a) Apologises for the privatisation of the railways - the result of an impractical commitment to ideology. Pledge that the state should remain in control of the family silver.
b) Announce the abolition of the House of Lords. Or at least a replacement of the current elite with a fully elected second chamber. Also announce an abandonment of the Honours system, to be replaced with civil awards free from political control.
c) Announce a radical alternative to the Government’s current Early Years Education Scheme - a £20bn project that has achieved no results. Offer vouchers for kids in under-performing schools to pay for extra tuition or other extra-curricular activities - as suggested by IDS.
d) Launch a full scale attack on the London elite, it’s arrogance and remoteness from the rest of Britain - in particular it’s destabilising effect on the Union.
e) Acknowledge that the Party must accept responsibility for it’s actions over Iraq, even if they were misled into it.
f) Announce that Oxford and Cambridge universities are to be turned into post-graduate colleges focusing on research. A move that could benefit their academic status and do away with the outdated two-tier model of Universities. Also the obsessive attitude of many parents to get their kids into Oxbridge.
Does anyone else find Gordon Brown’s teasing, simpering, and almost coquettishness over this supposed election somewhat nauseating?
This isn’t the way British Prime Ministers are meant to behave and is all rather demeaning for Brown, the office, and the country.
57. Does he like Cake though? Hitler liked cake and i think that had Hitler been alive today he would have saluted Brown’s idea of creating a one party state. Not sure Hitler would have gone for Brown’s “real” immigration policy though!
SBS - Steady on! Huhne doesn’t have gravitas, he’s just extremely boring.
56 - BM, I’m not interested in how it affects the tories or how they might be worried, I’m interested in how a tory defecting to labour would affect the government and help lib dem strategy. As it stands it’s a gift in being able to portray labour as being indistinguishable from the traditionally right wing party.
d) Launch a full scale attack on the London elite
HHAHAHAHAHA - What? David Cameron, ex-Eton, Oxbridge, White’s members club member, ex-Tory Central Office, resident of Notting Hill, married to a Baron’s daughter.
59. That will be confusing. Labour promising to crack down on crime and to ensure “British Jobs for British Workers” whilst the Tories campaign on a platform of re-nationalisation and the abolition of inherited privilege.
64. Cameron needs to try and do the unexpected. He seems to have forgotten the knack of it. He’s going nowhere at the moment. Appeasing the elite is a core-vote strategy.
UK Paul I agree that the LDs could theoretically have an opening if they can portray Labour as lurching to the socially conservative right and DC panicking back into the traditional Tory themes. The trouble is that MC doesn’t strike me as capable of successfully seizing such an opportunity and he won’t have very much time if it’s November.
Frank Field and Kate Hoey ( perhaps the latter more likely) are not bad shouts( from one poster earlier) the other way. Arise Lady Hoey for defecting on the back of no referendum?
MS - ” next week is going to be one of the biggest weeks in British politics for a long long time. ”
or another week of endless speculation with nothing happening. I hope you are right though, Mike.
If this analysis is correct, Brown is home and dry wth a 100+ majority.
http://journals.cambridge.org/download.php?file=%2FJPS%2FJPS37_01%2FS000712340700004Xa.pdf&code=eeb6f773e8a361b0a69d566e33aeaf5e
His latest “raw” approval rating is 54%, when adjusted gives 70%+
62
‘Huhne doesn’t have gravitas, he’s just extremely boring.’
I
59. The public are increasingly discontent with him - I cannot see why he has been very low key recently.
That focus group on Newsnight last week showed that people still liked him and they saw him as the future - that is a very, very strong label to have. I don’t think that many things have ever been succesfully sold as old, clapped out and what you have had for 10 years in politics!
Opposition leaders can only have aspirations as they do not have a majority to implement things. When you have Brown who messes around and plays politics all the time i think it is wise to keep your powder dry. I really do think though that Brown has shot himself in the foot with the “Hug a Tory” thing. He has finished Cameron’s job in neutralising Thatcher and her period in Government. Brown has been too clever by half and Thatcher remember was even more unpopular than Blair! Brown has in effect released Cameron from the Thatcher cage, like all liberations: the start is hard but Cameron in projecting the future is a lot more appealling than Brown who dwells on the past. Maybe Camron will campaign on the theme: Time for Change - Forward not Back?!!!
69. That links not working. Could you please try again?
65. Jim Callaghan reluctantly acknowledged in 1979 that sometimes change is inevitable and that there is nothing you can do to stop it - he saw the Thatherite writing on the wall. At the moment Tories seem to be desperately clinging to a dying Britain, knowing in their heart of hearts that things will eventually inevitably change.
They may not really like it, but sometimes it’s best to get in there first. the alternative is just moaning from the sidelines. Would some Tories prefer that?
66. Agree he does need to provide some further eye catching policies but the area he needs to attack Brown on is Britishness (e.g. his substance against Brown’s spin) by proposing some more radical proposals than EVEL whilst setting out a new structure for the Union (allowing more self determination for all the Home Nations).
Another area I expect there to be some movement on is costed tax cuts.
9 - there were two of us for a while annoyingly, but if I did say that I suspect my irony wasn’t coming across too well in print! I often say things that are so blatantly wrong that I expect everyone to pick up on the fact that I’m saying them in a sarcastic way - works in the real world, but not so often on forums…
74. The clear goal for Cameron is not Britishness but WLQ and English governance.
The one thing Brown wants to do more than any other, is purge Blair from the Labour Party. Brown cannot do that until he has his own mandate, he’ll go!
It doesn’t matter what Cameron or the Tories do, the electorate have already made up their minds, they will give Brown his mandate. The only argument should be, how big that majority is going to be.
p.s.
If none of this turns out to be true, this isn’t really me!!
p.p.s. I do believe Martin, you said you once worked at Conservative Central office. It’s always been a mystery to me as to how the Tories have managed to lose three general elections in a row, having read your posts, its a mystery no longer.
72. Try this
http://journals.cambridge.org/action/displayAbstract?fromPage=online&aid=591000
and click on PDF in the right-hand column…
59: ‘f) Announce that Oxford and Cambridge universities are to be turned into post-graduate colleges focusing on research.’
Are you saying that Oxbridge should no longer teach undergraduates? For Cameron to deny future generations the sort of education he himself benefited from probably wouldn’t be wise politics.
76 - Health, education and crime primarily. Secondarily, nods to Europe and immigration. Overarching this a promise to change the relationship between government and governed in favour of the governed.
If Cameron goes down those lines he would be doing a good job.
The coverage of Labour Conference hasn’t been great. The pundits thought the Brown speech was flat, and the Brownites have gone way over the top in their attacks on Conservatives. I think the appetite for Tory-Bashing has gone and yet Labour have been carrying on as if it is still the dog-days of the Major government.
#10 David Miliband on Newsnight seemed to imply he expected to be debating in the HoC on the EU Treaty (Wed Oct 10th?) - of course that could be a feint, but he was under some pressure from Paxman at the time. That would rule out the 1st but not the 8th.
Be interesting to see if the vote could be got out on a cold dark November night…
77. I do believe Martin, you said you once worked at Conservative Central office. It’s always been a mystery to me as to how the Tories have managed to lose three general elections in a row, having read your posts, its a mystery no longer.
Just because I worked there does not mean I had any strategic influence on how they fought elections. If your referring to spelling and punctuation then you show what an narrow minded imbecile you are! How you can possibly equate somebodies professional ability from a chat site
75:
Fair enough! My encounter must have been with the other Pimpernel as I’m pretty certain he was sincere in what he was advocating.
77. I suppose you think Branson is a “loser” because he is dyslexic and approaches things from an unconventional way as well! If we were all like you ………….:smile:
82 - I was involved in a council by-election on a November night. It may have been later in November but the campaign was characterised by rain, and cold, nobody answering doors and turnout went from a dire 30% to a dismal 9.9%. If Brown holds an election in Novemeber, we could at least plumb new turnout depths.
76. I think we are talking about the same thing in different terms. I agree WLQ is a large part of the issue but unless Cameron can address it within the framework of the Union then he is going to take a fair amount of criticism from within the party as well as without (and no doubt raise all sorts of constitutional questions which will mask the key points made).
The other thing is to undermine Brown’s spin of how British he is when he doesn’t give a fig about Britishness in reality.
80. Agree with your comments as well
Why are there two Martin Days?
87. Yes the thing about WLQ is between the Tories and SNP they can pincer action the Labour party in an election.
High risk strategy but politics does not favour the Chicken!
Labour still Chicken for October!
:lol: 
77: ‘It’s always been a mystery to me as to how the Tories have managed to lose three general elections in a row, having read your posts, its a mystery no longer.’
frumpy-old-man, and reading posts by sour, pointless leftos like you makes me realize why Blair and co. kicked your lot into the fringes of politics and embraced capitalism.
Gord may be waiting for this poll !
Sky News website,go to politics section to vote.
Should Brown call an autumn General Election?
Yes 45%
No 55%
88. Alas no!
89. Yes I agree. It was disappointing that the Scottish Conservatives came out against a referendum in Scotland.
However, by proposing a redefined Union based on a confederal structure he could reduce the risk significantly.
I find it hard to believe Brown is going to go this year but all the signs say he will.
I think we need to understand a bigger backdrop in the calculations rather than the polls.
As one or two have noticed I’ve been pointing out that 2007 couldnt be ruled out even when it was being ruled out because take one look at what might be coming and Gordon has issues building under the ‘why risk it?’ categories.
One: The economy, It seems that few now doubt thing are going to get tougher though we dont know how much. The average downturn of this kind of economic issue isnt over in months, it takes maybe 2 years at least and its looking like the sharp end is going to be poking at consumers. Yes, its perfectly possible that Gordon will look a better hand on the tiller in tough times but why risk testing that? Enough people may blame the government, we just can’t tell.
Two Public Sector budgets: Related to 1. There is very possibly going to be issues here. In fact we might be seeing some trouble already, eg the rather large PBSR for August that surprised a long of people has some convinced there is no way, the target cant be met. Thus Gordon either shifts the rules or borrowws/taxes more. What if he came up 2-3 billion out on his planned borrowing? Borrow more or tax more or both? What if the city bonuses and corporate profits in fthe likes of financial services that have help boost coffers shrink shortly?
Three: Europe. This one isnt quite going away. Its not the biggie but it can get a head of steam that could have electoral effect. Why risk it growing in strength.
Four: Public Sector workers. This may get difficult, then again there have been rumours of minsters sticthing up deals. Again if Gordon slugs it out it may be seen as a booster but not if there is serious levels of industrial action.
Five: Public tiredness. Gordon is seen as a change, that may not last and there is always, always a time for a change element with government in place for a while.
Six: The unknowns, which usually mean bad news. Gordon could tell a granny in the street to feck off and it isnt going to affect him now. That will not last.
Seven: The opposition: They will not be this abject forever
Be also aware that there are statements due on Iraq and withdrawal in the very near future. This can and will be used, for political effect.
As a result, polls saying 7,8-10% leads are good but 4 or 5% might even be enough given the above. Gordon is fortunate to be a position when the numbers look particularly good.
Caveman, if you turn up, Have you been paid out on Fukuda yet?
Rod crosby thanks for the pdf it was an interesting new angle on forecasts.
93. Yes and no, the spin has done this but the rubbish about labour recruitment just contridicts it all. T
hink Brown & Co. did not expect to be rumbled on what they were doing. They are lucky that the press has not been so concerned with exposing the deciet up until now. They tried spinning their way out of the jobs thing by telling the BBC that people would be just employed directly with Labour against the spirit of Equal Opportunities legislation. The dates have been left open on their recruitment page for a few “advertised jobs” and in the Times today a Labour spokesperson admited none of the people would be recruited in time for an early Nov. Election.
Yokel Good post. I agree with you about 4-5 but whether GB would have the bottle I don’t know. He would like some fat for campaign slippage and there are the greybeards urging delay…
Of course we have some real election results tonight . My pre result analysis of what to look for is as follows :-
Sunderland Washington E :-
Con gain or Labour hold by less than 100 Lab would lose a GE
Lab majority 100-300 Hung Parliament range
Lab majority 400-500 Labour overall majority
Lab majority greater than 500 Labour landslide
Dover CC Town :-
Lab % less than 40 Lab would lose a GE
Lab % 40-45% Hung Parliament Range
Lab % 45-49% Labour overall majority
Lab % 50% or more Labour landslide
Portsmouth Nelson :-
Lab lose to Con or LibDem Lab would lose a GE
Lab majority up to 200 Hung Parliament range
Lab majority 200-300 Labour overall majority
Lab majority greater than 300 Labour landslide
Cheshire CC Chester Gowy :-
Lab vote share less than 10% Lab would lose a GE
Lab vote share 10-15% Hung Parliament range
Lab vote share 16-20% Labour overall majority
Lab vote share greater than 20% Labour landslide .
These are the most significant of today’s contests
can someone remind us, how many interesting council by elections do we have tonight, and can we expect quick counts, or are they counting tomorrow….thanking you in advance…
98 - !!!
my question answered as i was typing
cheers
“f) Announce that Oxford and Cambridge universities are to be turned into post-graduate colleges focusing on research. A move that could benefit their academic status and do away with the outdated two-tier model of Universities. Also the obsessive attitude of many parents to get their kids into Oxbridge.”
I really am impressed by this suggestion. It’s a fine example of a policy that would appeal to absolutely nobody at all! No-one who is now at or ever went to Oxford or Cambridge, or hopes to go there; no-one at any other university (especially those which specialise in research); no-one who is unconnected with any university.
That should win some sort of a prize.
97. Are these the grey beards in public or also in private?
Mark Senior
Thanks very much for reminding us. However, we have to remember always that Labour are likely to do much better with a higher GE turn out. I don’t know whether you’ve factored that into your calculations. Also the Chester ward looks hopeless from a `Labour point of view. I’m much more interested in the two Party marginal local election contests. What were the previous results and from which year?
re 98 Great work Mark and what luck - three by-elections today which seems able to tell us something significant. The fourth, Cheshire, probably not. I don’t think one can discern much about Lab fortunes (or Con) from local by-elections where the base is less than 20%
96: I’ve just read the Times article. It makes me think that a snap GE is just not going to happen. Unless they already have the staff they need in place now I don’t think there is much chance. Anyway aren’t they well behind the Conservatives in nominating there PPC.
If the election is not early November I think the window is closed. Looks like May at least to me.
103 Yes I have factored the turnout into my assessment . I posted all the recent previous election results on I think it was last night’s thread . If you can’t find them I will repost later after a large B and C LOL . The Dover Maxton et al result will probably come before the Town CC result . It is about 25% of the CC seat and is split 2 Labour 1 Conservative . The results in the 6 wards making up this CC ward this May were in fact quite good for Labour compared to most parts of the country .
Taken from my blog kickingbets.blogspot.com
When will Cameron step down as Leader of the Conservative Party?
Paddy Power have priced this up as:
Before 2013 4 - 5
2013 4 - 1
After 2013 7 - 4
4-5 looks a great price to me. I’ve had 8 pts at this price (the max. they will allow me). With a 2007 increasingly likely (which he will probbaly lose) he is likley to resign as leader this year. If the elections is 2008/2009, it is still more likely than not he will cease to be leader of the Conservative Party before 2013.
Yokel Both, I think. Prescott and Beckett have been public about it but they’re out of the Cabinet. I think Darling and Straw have been mentioned as cautious about an early GE. Balls and Alexander seem to be in the hawks camp. They’re obviously very close to GB.
104 Re Chester , yes it is a poor ward for Labour although part of it is in their marginal Chester Parliamentary seat and the rest in Eddisbury . The Labour % though is important IMHO as it would give us a clue as to whether Labour support has gone up everywhere even in their poorer areas and may therefore give pointers to LibDem v Con performance in areas of the country where Labour are in 3rd place .
105 - PPC’s would them have to be imposed, I think Gordon might have a list.
If it’s time to start writing those manifestos, here’s an idea for each of the main parties to help them win more seats:
Labour - We promise to be fairer to the English by giving them the same deal we give to our native Scots.
Tory - We promise to cut Labour’s waste to pay for tax cuts.
Lib Dems - We promise to work with the Tories, if we really have to.
I think that a lot of people are getting over excited. Firstly any government that has been in office for a decade is going to have a lot more to do than they had to do in 2001 or 2005. Secondly the Conservatives have gone quiet of late, they haven’t gone away. The election whether it is in a month to six weeks or whether it is in May will be close.
98
‘These are the most significant of today’s contests’
I don’t see how a few local government by-elections can tell you anything as many of the results may be purely down to local issues e.g Refuse collection every two weeks instead of weekly.
A big deal was made last week about the Worcester result and ‘Worcester woman’ etc as it turns out the Tory candidate had a second occupation (not exactly voter friendly with Worcester woman) that was revealed during the campaign,so again it was local and not national factors.
I agree with Mike, next week is huge. If Cameron falls flat and the media report it all badly, Cameron’s position will be fatally weakened. However, a good speech, well reported, with positive press and signs the Murdock press in particular may be turning its heavy attack on Labour this week into actual support for Cameron, that could lead to a quick Cameron bounce, he will be well and truely back in the game with a fair media wind behind him, and very much with the momentum going forward.
113 - But it was more than one bye - Brandwood in Brum was arguably more significant in Worcester. What was interesting was that flaccid Conservative performance and strong Labour performance was a feature in several contests.
113 AFAIK there are no special factors in these particular elections but feel free to ignore them if you consider them of no significance . FWIW , the impact of the occupation of the Worcester Conservative candidate was rather overstated by Conservative spinners to explain the loss of a very safe seat .
May I commend to you as bedtime reading the increasingly excellent http://www.drraysfocalspot.blogspot.com
I disagree with Mark that anything should be read into these results at all.
Last year the Lib Dems regularly won a bigger share of the council by elections yet when it came to the main elections in May they lost several hundred seats.
All by elections do is show who is best at winning by elections. That is why many Lib Dems like them.
116 By that logic the effect of Rinka on North Devon in 1979 was rather overstated as well possibly Mr Senior. Clearly the other results especially Brandwood? were more significant
116. I’m really intrigued now! What occupation could the Worcester Conservative candidate have had that would have spoiled his chances with Worcester Woman? Was he a parking warden? A lap dancer? A wheel clamper?
Barry thanks for the link.
It seems we live in an almost surreal NuLabwonderland where their latest medical “superexpert” believes that money does not influence anyone.
“Catherine Heaton asked why payments were made to participants in the Citizens Juries (revealed on this blog last week) in return for their opinion. His Mostness (Lord Darzi), had no answer for this and simply said that the idea that participants could be influenced by being offered money was absurd. I personally can’t see what is absurd in this. If it wasn’t true why are drug companies not allowed to offer doctors money?”
I am off to read 1984 etc.
120, Roger testing sex aids and reporting on her website.
120
It was along the lines of the Lib Dem councillor in Devon,would Miss Naughty Wispers give you a clue?
There was something to do with bin collection in Worcester too
A Local news source in the west mids is starting to tip Nov 1st as a heavy possibility
http://www.thestirrer.co.uk/.
I was at Regional offices this evening and it is certainly moving toward a real intention should Cameron not pull off a turnaround in the Next two weeks.
Some saw the significance of Brandwood as largely that the Labour Victory was achieved within a low turnout.
125 - lol @ “you heard it here first”
I reckon when Gordon calls the day it won’t be on a Thursday.
116
‘AFAIK there are no special factors in these particular elections but feel free to ignore them if you consider them of no significance . FWIW , the impact of the occupation of the Worcester Conservative candidate was rather overstated by Conservative spinners to explain the loss of a very safe seat’
How do you know that there are no special factors,have you visited these areas?
For the past two years you have been trying to take a few results and build up a national picture,however, the actual results in the 06 & 07 local elections have been a bus ride away from your prognosis.
98: But these by-elections often throw up strange results. I bet that not all of the results fall into only one of your categories, i.e. based on one result you would predict a labour majority of x, and based on another a completely different majority.
What about an analysis of say the last 4 weeks’ by elections? That would be more accurate wouldn’t it?
Even in general elections odd results happen. What if Solihull had declared first last time? (Apart from you wetting your kn*ckers of course…)
125. Crossland, do you know if Birmingham Ladywood will ever start its selection process?
18 - yes the 1837 election was of course a classic. Early projections of a Tory majority were wide of the mark as the Whigs swept to one of their last wins.
Of course all the extra peasants and other non nobility allowed to vote since 1832 affected the result.
105″PPC’s would them have to be imposed, I think Gordon might have a list. ”
They may go with the late retirements and byelections selection procedures. The NEC will produce shortlists and the CLPs will select from the NEC produced shortlist.
129 Agreed results may vary , I posted an analysis of the last 3 weeks byelections last Friday and will update it tomorrow . Note BBC News tonight had a brief report on the Portsmouth byelection .
128 You sound like a Conservative already fearing the worst .
I do hope that Dave C does at least read part of the Daily Brown/Mail, mainly the Littlejohn part.
I know he can be barking mad on many things but this:
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/pages/live/articles/columnists/columnists.html?in_article_id=484320&in_page_id=1772&in_author_id=322&in_check=Nd=1770
sums it up perfectly.
We are in real danger of Brown and his corrupt cronies taking over as the electorate sleep walk to a one party state.
As has been said on David Millibands blog by others, who are we to lecture Burma, with an unelected leader, who rules another country than he’s elected in, in a country (England) that voted for another party?
130- I havent heard , We selected McCabe for Selly Oak.
Khaled Mahmoods reselection is going through at the moment.
Last I heard Penny Barber was the favourite but that was in May, I presume Ladywood will be last .
133
No,your forecasts always cheer me up as the reality is always the opposite of your rhetoric.
Don’t give up the day job.
Testing sex aides? In Soho that would have given her a landslide!
I’m going to try and put out some analysis tomorrow based on September by-elections (including tonight’s results). In the meantime, Mark Senior has pointed me to a great forum (Vote 2007) where you can get the latest news and chat about everything psephological in the UK.
133 - I would guess most Conservatives are genuinely torn. On the one hand they obviously fear that the polls will be replicated and they will be wiped out.
But on the other hand they must be thinking that they can’t believe that Gordon would be so mad as to call an election. It’s hard enough to motivate people to vote at the best of times, let alone in November in a completely unnecessary election when the result looks a formality. I really can’t see people responding to a call from Gordon to give him a bigger majority than the one he’s got.
Remember even in 2001, after one of the most comical campaigns in recent history, the Conservatives managed on polling day to (just) outperform expectations based on the polls.
And then there’s the obvious ground that Labour has to make up in the South. The Conservative lack of progress in the North and Midlands may prevent them getting anywhere close to a majority, but the point of the exercise (of an election now) isn’t to deny the Conservatives a majority.
Were Brown to announce a 2007 GE, presumably in their inimitable fashion we would have to wait for the poll to take place before Betfair actually deigned to pay out - yes, I appreciate that they have to protect both sides of matched bets, but what a wonderful business to have in terms of all that up front cashflow.
All - don’t forget that from 1 Oct, exclusively on this site, there will be:
AVE IT’S ELECTION SPECIAL.
All the latest polls, predictions, analysis and commentary on the forthcoming General Election
As if you didn’t already know!
My understanding is that David Cameron’s speech will be awesome,hopefully enough to scupper talk of autumn elections.
Prime Minister Gordon Brown has just six days to launch an October 25 General Election under electoral laws.
Town hall electoral chiefs today confirmed that a timetable based on that date would require the official proclamation to be made next Tuesday, October 2 - in the middle of Tories’ conference.
Parties would then have to move quickly to ensure candidate nominations were in by Wednesday October 10.
This also is the last date to deliver postal vote applications to the town hall.
It is also the deadline for electoral officers to receive applications for people to be put on the voters’ roll under the rolling electoral register.
For those not already on the existing list an application will have to be made even if they filled a form under the annual updating canvass over the past two months. This only applies to next year’s register which is effective from December 1.
For possible elections on November 1 and 8 the key dates would need to be advanced by a week or two weeks, with nominations closing on October 17 or 24.
Why has “before December” come in from 2.1 to 1.6 on Betfair in the last hour and a bit, anyone know? Tenner of it was admittedly me jumping off the fence, but still…
134,
Bloody hell! Littlejohn has actually paid attention to what Cameron has said and looked at the themes behind the policies!
I’m pretty flabbergasted. I was expecting a rant - but that looks like a speech that Littlejohn could genuinely see Cameron making - complete with some of the things that Littlejohn doesn’t have much time for (such as the environmental theme, or the pro-civil partnership thing). Do you think that Littlejohn is now genuinely scared of a Brown landslide and is swinging behind Cameron?
I’ve got to go for a lie-down. I’ve read a Littlejohn column and agreed with virtually all of it. God help me!
142/All - IT’s 1 NOVEMBER.
Will be announced next Friday.
135. Thanks Crossland. It has been taken so long (I have not read anything even on the NEC decision on if it’s open or AWS)…Clare went away in late 2006…seats with MPs announcing their retirement in June 2007 have already selected the new PPC and in Ladywood they have not even started.
Penny Barber? I suppose there may be some protests if a not BAME candidate is selected in a constituency like that.
142 - “It is also the deadline for electoral officers to receive applications for people to be put on the voters’ roll under the rolling electoral register.
For those not already on the existing list an application will have to be made even if they filled a form under the annual updating canvass over the past two months. This only applies to next year’s register which is effective from December 1.”
This is particularly important. There is no doubt that thousands of people will turn up at polling stations not realising that they are not eligible to vote. And Local Councils will have enough on their plate without wandering about badgering people to check they’re on the list.
141 Will Ave it 07 be predicting any Lab/LD holds or are we talking clean sweep?
when has richard littlejohn ever been anything other than a tory? doesn’t his son even work for them?
144 - I think Cameron is intending to increase some taxes, including environmental taxes. It’s how he’s intending to fund tax cuts elsewhere.
Personally i like the windmills. Don’t understand the ‘ugly’ viewpoint.
148. I think he said Skinner should be worried in Bolsover but it wasn’t a clear cut…they may go to a recount and Labour can pull it off by a small margin
144 - Littlejohn is an arch libertarian. I don’t think he would ever have had a problem with civil partnerships.
The closest to his views that we have on here would be SeanT. They’re probably drinking buddies.
143 These are pretty small amounts currently being matched on Betfair, hence the possibly exaggerated movements. The price could move back to around evens tomorrow morning. Anyone get onto the free money I mentioned earlier, when Hills were still offering 1.75-1?
149. “doesn’t his son even work for them? ”
for Dinky
141 - obviously i am obtaining the key secret exclusive poll and local information before i can say anything.
BUT i can give you a sneak preview:
‘Con gain LOADS!!!’