Why is the Times leading on the plagiarism suggestions?
September 27th, 2007-
Will this impede Brown’s election momentum?
Reproduced here is the front page of this morning’s Times showing the lead story which won’t please Number 10. For Labour’s new leader is accused of “rehashing old phrases from Bill Clinton and Al Gore without attribution in his first speech to a Labour conference as Prime Minister”.
The report describes a study of Brown conference speech on Monday which “shows a marked similarity between parts of Mr Brown’s speech and big set-piece speeches of Democrat leaders” and goes on to list a number of similar phrases and ideas.
Brown’s speech is also said to have followed a similar format and the paper reports that parts may have been crafted by Bob Schrum who worked for both Gore and Clinton and who has been a regular recent visitor to Downing Street.
So what? - you might say. Who cares? - the story is hardly likely to become the talking point in pubs this evening. Yet as the 1988 Democratic hopeful, Joe Biden, will testify things like this can seriously de-rail a campaign.
It will be recalled that Biden’s standard stump speech included the phrase “Why is it that Joe Biden is the first in his family ever to go a university? Why is it that my wife . . . is the first in her family to ever go to college? Is it because our fathers and mothers were not bright…? ..” This was an almost direct copy of Neil Kinnock’s 1987 election rhetoric.
For me the most interesting element is that, in its early editions at least, the Times is leading on the story thus ensuring that it might get picked up by other parts of the media.
Could this be another shot across Labour’s bows from Rupert Murdoch? He can’t allow Brown to get so far ahead that he doesn’t need the media magnate’s support any more.
Brown has had such an exceptionally good first quarter that a real danger is the so called media narrative changing. And if that happens then all talk of a 2007 election may come to an end.
Conservative party watchers might note that the ever present opposition attack dog, Chris Grayling, is quoted by the paper putting the boot in. As I’ve discussed before he is the Tory to follow and might just be a future leadership candidate.
Mike Smithson
MessageSpace Advertising
is the same here:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2007/09/27/nlabour727.xml
and why “Grayling is the tory to follow”?
Americans, and particularly American journalists feel more strongly about plagiarism, than we do, unless things have changed recently with the emphasis on rooting out plagiarised coursework in schools and universities.
It is ironic that so much ink was spilled on whether Tony Blair or Alistair Campbell coined “the people’s princess” when it is clearly a direct lift from the White House being “the people’s house”.
It does show a certain carelessness in Number Ten, though, and one that extends to not considering the adverse impact of inviting Tories including Mrs Thatcher into the “big tent”.
Perhaps Danny Finklestein could provide some useful textural analysis of this?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mYkGThMYmbk
(Any political party wanting a director for their next PPB with an idea that starts “Open on desert island, Three beatiful girls reading a manifesto walk towards camera…..” please apply. Rates may vary according to Party)
Re 2. A direct lift from “peoples house”. You got to be joking! If plagiarism is defined that loosely what chance has anyone got.
Aye, that Broon, he’s all sporran and no kilt.
Axel Cable @ 4 — dig out then-President Clinton’s television address after an attack on the White House and tell me that was not the inspiration for Tony’s “the people’s princess” speech.
Go on David……wow us next week my son
Cameron boosted by football club chairman’s £1 million donationBack to Central Government
Publisher: Jon Land
Published: 26/09/2007 - 22:37:55 PM
Dave Whelan to donate £1
million to the Conservative
Party David Cameron was boosted tonight by a £1 million donation from a Premier League football club chairman angered by Labour’s failure to tackle violent crime.
Sports shop tycoon Dave Whelan has pledged to hand over the cash within 14 days if a general election is called.
Mr Whelan, the chairman of Wigan Athletic football club, said he had been particularly affected by the case of 11-year-old Rhys Jones, who was shot dead in Liverpool.
“I am supporting David Cameron because having met and talked with him, I am convinced he has the right approach to dealing with law and order in Britain.
“This government, I believe, has failed on that front and the Conservative Party now stands as the only party prepared to take on these issues.
“The murder of Rhys Jones upset me and my family, just as it did so many people in this country.
“David’s promise to deal with knife and gun crime, early release of prisoners and more prison places is music to my ears. He has my full support.”
Go on David……wow us next week my son
Cameron boosted by football club chairman’s £1 million donationBack to Central Government
Publisher: Jon Land
Published: 26/09/2007 - 22:37:55 PM
Dave Whelan to donate £1
million to the Conservative
Party David Cameron was boosted tonight by a £1 million donation from a Premier League football club chairman angered by Labour’s failure to tackle violent crime.
Sports shop tycoon Dave Whelan has pledged to hand over the cash within 14 days if a general election is called.
Mr Whelan, the chairman of Wigan Athletic football club, said he had been particularly affected by the case of 11-year-old Rhys Jones, who was shot dead in Liverpool.
“I am supporting David Cameron because having met and talked with him, I am convinced he has the right approach to dealing with law and order in Britain.
“This government, I believe, has failed on that front and the Conservative Party now stands as the only party prepared to take on these issues.
“The murder of Rhys Jones upset me and my family, just as it did so many people in this country.
“David’s promise to deal with knife and gun crime, early release of prisoners and more prison places is music to my ears. He has my full support.”
After Browns leadership launch speech in which he declared the death of spin he put himself at considerable risk if the media decided to make spin the story. The spin on Brown’s speech quoted just after it was that he wrote it himself, from his heart, typing in large capital letters (nice reference to his sight problems). Now it’s clear it was written by Schrum and if Brown had any direct involvement it was editing.
His PR operation has been a model of spin but it’s beginning to wear thin. The avuncular, at ease Brown in interviews seems to be a well rehearsed performance about his life story with the same jokes - he needs some new material. In his Q&A he re-told the Mark Twain story about “no place for puritans so I gave up being one” - quick pan to Mrs Brown, who must have heard it at every one of Brown’s speeches on his pre-premiership progress, seemingly trying hard not to break down in hysterical laughter.
His pillaging of Howard’s manifesto continues with Straw’s announcement on change in law on self defence but that too is becoming a bit obvious.
Its been electioneering since he became PM and seems to be working but doubt it can continue in its present form, Good Uncle Gordon will bore the media soon enough - beginning to think a November election was in the Grid from the start.
The story itself is absolute nonsense and hardly merits a diary story let alone a lead. All it proves is that politicians use cliches.
One of the similarities the article notes is that both Brown and Clinton said, “I will work for you every day and I will [never - Clinton/not - Brown] let you down.” Is there any politician in Britain who has not used that phrase?!? And they are all of that order of magnitude.
The Joe Biden case was altogether different - it was a direct lift of a long, long passage of the then Labour leader’s speech.
I doubt it will have any impact on anything but agree that Murdoch is firing a shot across Brown’s bow.
Just another warning for how quickly the mood can shift. I feel good about an autumn election. Oh the joy of waking up Nov second to find Labour’s majority gone! And watch Jack W et al mourn the demise of Gimmick Gawd…
This is the fundamental contradiction for me. Brown wants us to believe he is sincere, worthy and unspun. Then he comes out with a whole load of rehashed platitudes that his advisers have calculated will resonate with the electorate at large.
Nothing wrong with that really. That’s politics. The problem for me is that its boring, unconvincing and much that he would like to convince us otherwise, not his own work.
Verdict. Must try harder. Write out one hundred times, “I will not let you down, I will not let you down ….”
wasn’t the real plagiarism that of the 2005 Tory manifesto?
Yet again - people wanting things to happen their way rather than seeing the FACTS. We are all guilty of it I suppose, but some are more guilty than others
We shall see tomorrow if Gordon really does have momentum from the local bye results. Personally, I would not go this year - May 2008 is my bet. My car was positively covered in frost this morning - I don’t think campaigning in this sort of weather is advisable!
Oh, when is the next poll due?
10 The structure & many phrases were lifts from the US - it has been exposed as artifice pretending to be principled, which to an extent many speeches are. I particularly liked
Kerry - “And what can I say about Teresa? She has the strongest moral compass of anyone I know”
Gordon Brown: “And this is my moral compass”
Brown shows his magpie mind - steal that it sounds good - but exposure of the theft does undermine the (pretended?) intent.
11.there seems to be an assumption that a snap Autumn election is slipping into November. That does not seem sensible for Labour as
a)Clocks will have gone back leading to darker evenings and lower turnout of Labour voters who tend to vote in evenings.
b)Weather mor elikely to be wet.
If a snap autumn election is to be held would be better before clocks go back-either Thursday 25th ogf October or (boldly)Saturday 27th October.
What is latest date Brun has to see the queen to achieve those dates?
Rogerh
15
Your examples “moral compass” are risible.
Risible is employing Bob Shrum to rehash speeches and expecting not to get caught!
Risible is also refering to ‘immorality’ in a political speech in the 21st century.
Ok enough of risible, how do we describe using taxpayers money to underwrite reckless mortgage lending (see link) ?
http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/industry_sectors/banking_and_finance/article2512384.ece
Plagiarism aside, Brown’s recent actions remind me of Mike’s article from earlier this month, relating to how Paxman challenged a Labour Party representative(?)on Newsnight to confirm that they would not be endeavouring to shoot any more Tory foxes. Judging by the various proposals set out this week, this is exactly what Brown proposes to do. I have long suspected that many people in the UK would support a political party that mirrors the US Democrats (capitalism with a concience anybody?) and that this is precisely where Brown intends to plant his flag.
Now that the weather in October and November is becoming an issue can we have, in glorious pb.c tradition, speculation on next week’s long term forecast, gloating and triumph when it shows a fine spell, claims that we have never taken forecasts seriously. Does the BBC habitually favour better forecasts as compared to ITV ? Know it alls referring us to the full details on the Met Office web site. The only weather forecast that counts is on the morning of the election. Have you taken into account the regional variation of the weather ? Any weather forecasts this weekend, Mike ?
Friends Englishmen and fellow pb.comers , we are here not to praise the Prime Minister but to lampoon him for plagiarism . We will stiifen our sinews summon up our blood and fight him on the beaches and in the now smoke free but empty pubs . We are not for turning etc etc .
The Times didn’t need to lead with this story but coming on the back of the Sun front page earlier in the week the message is clear, Broon and Murdoch are falling out of love with each other.
What will be very interesting will be to see the Murdoch press approach to the Tory conference next week - if the media narrative isn’t ‘Tory shambles, leader under fire, party in meltdown’ Browns strategy will have failed and he will be left looking weak, mendacious and indecisive and with a massive hangover on his own side from Mssrs Thatcher and Tebbits endorsement.
I still think that when the history of this conference season is written the story will be one of Labour missed opportunity and the ‘tipping point’ being reached in the public mind, but we will see.
17 agree, it’s as risible as “hug a hoody” - doesn’t matter what was actually said the point is that if the Tories could associate ‘moral compass’ as a plagarised phrase from US politics then it becomes an unusable term and its message is undermined.
Where this story is interesting is for future lines of attack on Brown. I expect the Tories to paint Brown as being lacking in ideas on how to tackle Britain’s problems. He is predictible, plodding, part of the past - part of the problem. His speeches are borrowed from the past, they do not evidence any new thinking. Cameron, on the other hand, is an ideas man. Whether you like them or not, Cameron has tried to inject new ideas into how to tackle Britain’s problems. So give a chance to the new guy with new ideas….
Something like that anyway.
24 “if the media narrative isn’t ‘Tory shambles, leader under fire, party in meltdown’ Browns strategy will have failed and he will be left looking weak, mendacious and indecisive”
No, that is what you *want* to happen.
23 Mark.
24 Marcus.
.. it’s the way you tell em !!
Any gossip on a possible defection?
15. “Kerry - “And what can I say about Teresa? She has the strongest moral compass of anyone I know””
“Gordon Brown: “And this is my moral compass””
I remember a quiz program once which asked ‘what has a blackbird and a cow got in common?’ Frank Muir answered “well they both have four legs except for the blackbird that has two!”
I see this this as the same. The only words in common are ‘Moral Compass’ which was part of the the title of a book several years ago! I hope all combinations of two words can’t be patented or we’d quickly run out of conversation.
22 fr - well for a start the BBC decided that a couple of years ago that on its web weather it would use a symbol reflecting the predominant daytime weather - so it will show a sunny period symbol if there are only a few showers. Hoteliers had apparently been complaining it was too pessimistic in its forecasts. BBC bias!
So, New Labour is lifting passages of text from other peoples work in an attempt to pass them off as its own research?
Tell me something I don’t know!!!
…more plagiarism!!!
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml;jsessionid=1KA00IBWFSON3QFIQMGCFF4AVCBQUIV0?xml=/news/2007/09/27/nlabour127.xml
27, 28. Let’s see shall we? I just have a feeling that the media - even the BBC- may have a slightly different agenda to the one you are expecting next week.
Ok, - perhaps not the Telegraph.
Meanwhile …. Andrew Grice in the “Independent” on advisors to Brown urging him to call an Autumn election :
http://news.independent.co.uk/uk/politics/article3001627.ece
………………..
34 Marcus. You are a tonic Marcus !!
29 Given that Gordon likes his “ta-daaa” moments, if there is to be a “big” defection, probably immediately after Cameron’s main speech to conference.
Meanwhile II …. Simon Carr in the “Independent” is not impressed with our “piffle” Prime Minister :
http://comment.independent.co.uk/columnists_a_l/simon_carr/article3001628.ece
27 but Flumpers Brown already looks weak mendacious and indecisive; it’s just a case of whether Dave looks even weaker more mendacious and more indecisive. I don’t think he will.
The plagiarism story is not big of itself (though all the papers seem to be picking up on it) - but it is the sort of story that will erode the ’strong man’, unspun, ‘just Gordon’ message. It highlights to the public what many of us already know - Gordon is a Wraith, a chimera, a product of the modern political high speed spin cycle. He has no plan beyond being in power and staying in power.
I think the same is true of Cameron - but he hasn’t spent the past ten years lecturing me on how great he is.
Meanwhile III …. Iain Martin in the “Daily Telegraph” finds Brown’s big tent a “creepy place” !!
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/opinion/main.jhtml;jsessionid=LGVNNIZDOHRMLQFIQMFSFF4AVCBQ0IV0?xml=/opinion/2007/09/27/do2702.xml
37. Nice article - especially liked this line -
‘Didn’t we laugh at that Labour chump who said that everyone was going to be above average?’
just about sums up the intellectual level of Labour
Meanwhile IV …. Francis Elliot in the “Times” says that tension mounts in Tory ranks as Osborne turns on the “uber modernisers” :
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article2540112.ece
34. Marcus - I pray you are right!
I’m hoping the media - following the traditional British sense of “fair play” - will at least give Cameron a fair hearing when he sets out his stall.
I think the prospect of Labour going to the country *now* on the back of a few good polls and letting Brown get away scot-free (boom boom tiish) for any accountability for ANOTHER 5 years is making some of them wince.
They know New Labour is a tired government that has failed to tackle most of the country’s problems. They know the Conservatives have some good ideas and are, at least, trying hard.
And, most importantly, after 10 years of Labour walking it, they now want a fair fight..
38 - “but Flumpers Brown already looks weak mendacious and indecisive”
Not to me he doesn’t! He is strong and rugged. And with that low Scottish burr………….ooh, I’m starting to have one of my flushes
Meanwhile V …. Patrick Wintour and Will Woodward in the “Gruntfutock” on a November election becoming favourite among the PM’s aides :
http://politics.guardian.co.uk/labour2007/story/0,,2177794,00.html
44 - ah, seems such a long time ago now that Oct 25th was the racing certainty. I expect the merits of going on Nov 15th will soon be debated by GB’s “aides”. Then the 22nd. Will we end up going to the polls on the day after Boxing Day…? Dither, dither, dither.
Meanwhile VI …. James Chapman in the “Daily Mail” says that the sustained Labour poll lead has the Tories “rattled” :
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/pages/live/articles/news/news.html?in_article_id=484142&in_page_id=1770&in_a_source=
42. It’s not just that.
I have a few contacts in the media and they are .. uneasy.. at the entire thrust of Gordon Browns first Conference.
The vast majority of journalists hate being seen as biased or partisan and in my view the orgy of anti-Tory spinning - when the Tories are already ‘down’ - has been a bit too much for them to bear.
I just get the feeling that there are the first signs of serious rebellion amongst their number, particularly against some of the very arrogant young princes around Brown at the moment.
And Boris wins the mayoralty primary with 75% of the vote.
Thus ensuring Ken’s re-election, although I think that was nailed-on anyway. I suspect Boris is hoping and praying for a 2009-10 GE - otherwise it’s curtains for his political career. He can hardly stand for parliament now in an autumn or spring poll.
What an easy job being a political ‘journalist’ is. All you have to do is take a few spoon-fed lines from party spinners, add the odd cliche of your own, and hey presto - a scoop! Then you have the whole day to get smashed down at the pub.
Isn’t it faintly embarrassing for the Conservatives that out of all the Londoners entitled to vote in the primary contest, only 20,000 bothered. That’s probably less than a 0.5% “turnout” isn’t it?
hmmm, I think what’s missing here is the recognition that in US politics and media it’s electoral poison to be seen apparently basing your central campaign messages on what they would see as still, back then, a socialist inspiration.
Whereas, Brown’s association with US democrats, is likely to do no damage, possibly the reverse bearing in mind blair’s embarassing cuddling up to the republicans.
Saying all that, someone in brown’s team, possibly this Schrum, need to up their game.
16.”11.there seems to be an assumption that a snap Autumn election is slipping into November.” And then December, January and then into February……
Meanwhile VII …. Catherine MacLeod in the “Herald” says that Osborne threw a spanner in the Tory works after admitting that voters didn’t know what the Conservatives would do in government :
http://www.theherald.co.uk/politics/news/display.var.1717607.0.0.php
Meanwhile anyone read the Daily T headline about new laws for homeowners…(burglars etc) whilst Jack Straw when interviewed confirmed he thought the law was Ok but the wording needed clarifying.!
Looks like the DT need to inject their jounalists with some brains.
50. Perhaps that indicates the level of importance Londoners attach to the post of Mayor - the fact they have elected a buffoon to the post twice already may also be a clue as to the ‘esteem’ in which the post is held.
What a surprise. Brown hasn’t got any style or charisma of his own so he ‘borrows’ somebody else’s. I hope that Conservatives are all over him about this one, expect a few wisecracks at their conference about this.
54. The DT just seems quite happy to be a New Labour cheerleader at present, uncritically repeating whatever cr*p is pushed its way.
50. Primaries always get very small numbers of votes. When you add in the fact that people were charged 1.50 a go and the UK doesn’t yet have a culture of primaries its a pretty reasonable figure.
The Times editor must have been in a nit picking mood to run that story. The speech wasn’t even a brilliant speech, it was pedestrian to say the least, but it seems to have gone down well with women.
Murdoch would hate for Brown, ‘to win and win big’ to quote Kavanagh, becuase he might have to treat Brown as an equal, well he wouldn’t like that would he.
Strange I don’t remember too many Tories complaining when Kinnock used to get a regular roasting from the SUN/MAIL etc, I dont remember the Tories complaining about all of those ‘Looney Left’ stories we used to get treated too, I don’t remember the constant attacks on, ‘Red Ken’ by the Tory press, led to Tories calling for ‘fair play’ God! you ‘Blue Harpies’ will have me wringing out me hankie if you carry on like this.
48/50 “And Boris wins the mayoralty primary with 75% of the vote.
Thus ensuring Ken’s re-election”
Don’t you believe it Bob Sykes. Boris has a very good chance of beating Livingstone. He was very impressive on the Today programme this morning.
Still Livingstones to lose, but I bet my bottom dollar Boris will give him one hell of a run for his money and might.. just might.. soundly beat him.
47. Marcus, once again, I hope you are right!!
GOM - of course we didn’t complain when the media told the truth about Labour, its their acceptance of the lies Labour is now trotting out that’s the problem
Just heard Straw on the radio on the “self-defence justified” proposals.
I’m sure he was Home Secretary not that long ago when the Tories said the law needed changing and he said it was perfectly adequate.
This is just the latest of “Tories had the same idea we rubbished it now exactly the same idea is a good one because we’ve proposed it” coming out of the conference.
Just read the article and these plagiarism charges are a load of bollocks. The only thing that was vaguely similar was Brown saying he was charged as being “too serious” and even that could be coincedental.
What we should be attacking Brown for is the fact that he claims to be a “conviction politician” when he’s spends his every moment adopting Tory proposals that he spent his formative years attacking and dismissed them when he was Chancellor.
59.”The speech wasn’t even a brilliant speech, it was pedestrian to say the least, but it seems to have gone down well with women.”
I did not buy the headline figure for Labour in that poll, but when I heard the figures that indicated that women were left swooning over the speech I really smelt a rat!!
65 - Hey, Mariella Frostrup can’t be wrong! She was simpering like a school girl yesterday.
65 ChrisD. It’s the deep Scottish voice that attracts them !!
Perhaps the Tories should go for an authentic Scottish leader ….. then all three main parties would have a Scot at the helm ….. Deary me what would francis say !!!
Let the call go forth ….. David Muchdull for leader !!!!!
60 - much as I like Boris, and accept that he’s the most popular Tory in the land, he is a gaffe-prone joke politician and the worst outcome for the Tories would be for Boris to win and assume high office as the most powerful Conservative in the country.
Best outcome for me would be for Boris to solidly win the first preference vote but then be very narrowly defeated once second preferences come into play - it would be a “win/win” scenario for the Tories and show them to be back in business.
Did you hear the glorious silence from the lib dem spokesman on Radio 5 when Nicky Campbell asked him if he would be ok if he hit a burgler with his cricket bat ? In the end he pretended not to understand the question.
62
Well lets say, ‘Red Ken’ seems to have survived, the press telling ‘the truth’ about him.
61
I hate to point it out to you, but when it comes to GB, Marcus’s record is total crap, if you believed Marcus the Tories would have a polling lead of 20%, and Mrs Cameron would have already been around to No10 to measure up for the curtains.
63
And you can be sure in 6 months time nothing will have changed.
Politicians in the UK have a problem. They keep spouting rubbish. All apart from political journalists eventually recognise them as lies.
Political journalists get to their position cos they unquestioningly swallow rubbish and regurgitate it as reporting. Only a few try to tell the truth (Gilligan) and see what happens to them.
Proposal. Each politician who tells obvious lies loses £2,000pa in salary - for 5 years. Each law change they propose not implemented in 12 months gets the same treatment.
After a year we’d see a lot of bankrupt and a few truthful politicians and far fewer laws.
50. 20k more than any other party got
66. from todays sun
GORDON Brown was red-faced last night after his star turn at the Labour conference BACKED The Sun’s EU referendum campaign.
TV beauty Mariella Frostrup declared she wants a vote on the EU treaty — revealing her support just moments after hosting a question-and-answer session with the PM.
Mariella had grilled Mr Brown over why he was refusing a national vote.
He gave her a long explanation about why he will not have a referendum. But last night she told The Sun: “I want a referendum. Although I would probably vote yes, a referendum was promised to the people.”
She said that when she told Mr Brown he had won her over with his argument, she was “being ironic”.
Mariella went on: “I did take on board everything he said, but that doesn’t mean people should be denied a vote.”
One Frostrop question was plain weird.
Can you eliminate me..?
Presume she meant illuminate.
I agree with you Bob. Boris is a charming, highly intellegent man but a buffoon. He is the worst candidate you could possibly have and I feel the Tory party will live to regret electing him as candidate for mayor.
Defection alert - Lousie Bagshawe to labour..
http://conservativehome.blogs.com/columnists/2007/09/louise-bagsha-3.html
47.”I have a few contacts in the media and they are .. uneasy.. at the entire thrust of Gordon Browns first Conference.”
That is an interesting observation to make Marcus. Watching the way that Brown’s first few months as PM have unfolded you are left with no clue as to his vision for the future of the country. Instead you feel that his whole plan is based on one ambition, and that is to grind the Conservative party into the dust. It is not subtle or pretty to watch, and there lies the danger.
It looks like Brown’s strategy is now even making journalists queasy, not a good sign!
67.JackW, I have always had a soft spot for a man in a kilt which is maybe why Brown has never appealed to me.
61,I know you hope and agree with Marcus a lot, but dont bet on his predictions, unless you like the been as right as a stopped clock.
Meanwhile V (plagarising Jack W - all the rage nowdays)
http://tinyurl.com/2okb9v
one woman not convinced by Gordon’s seductive posing.
76 - “You’re comfortable with tax rises, soaring inflation and high unemployment - so long as we mask the statistics”
This has got to be a joke, right? The Tories have been past masters at this. Nice to know that Tories have an ironic sense of humour.
O/T I agree with the main article that Murdoch is trying it on with Brown.
The odd thing is the Mail and Telegraph that seem to have forgotten that Brown is against a referendum and they continue to provide Labour with propaganda. Only a few journos like Quentin Letts are resisting their bosses “love-in-with-Labour”.
The BBC has gone from trashing Ming last week to trashing Cameron this week. Balanced? How does ferreting out things against the 2 main opposition Leaders and not doing the same to Brown equal balance? Only Andrew Neil maintains his impartiality.
68/75. He is not a buffoon.
He will be a very effective administrator.
Don’t underestimate him. He will surprise you.
81 Andrew Neil? Impartial?? Get a grip!
82 - Casino - I’m sure he would have been. But unfortunately for him (and you?) he loves his “Beano” persona and will not junk it. He won’t be able to go through a campaign without a major disaster or something else falling out of his packed closet. He is just not serious. He is playing games with London.
Even rowdy conferences can provide a short-lived boost. After the October 2003 conference, I assumed the next poll would show Tory support below 30%, and lo and behold, Yougov put them on 38%.
This story in the Telegraph raises more than a few questions about Labour policy: and I don’t mean about immigration.
“Four asylum seekers entered Britain on the back of a lorry carrying Tony Blair’s new official car, according to reports.”
It seems very hard to care about any of this now we no longer get wall-to-wall, all-day, live coverage of the conferences. Edited highlights just leave me wondering why Trevor Brooking is pretending to be the Prime Minister.
84 He can get away with things things that other politicians can’t get away with, so don’t assume his campaign will be seriously derailed because of some gaffe. People will just laugh it off.
79.That article sums up Brown’s weakness with the female vote, especially when his last 10 years has pushed so many women into the workplace. No choice for many of them.
Quentin Letts on “You’re not flash Gordon, just boring” Now this made me laugh, I remember Mariella’s last outing on the This Week programme so this came as no surprise.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/pages/live/articles/columnists/columnists.html?in_article_id=484143&in_page_id=1772&in_author_id=228
It surprising that there’ve been no polls published covering the London Mayoral contest. Now, there’s a good chance that Labour’s recovery has caused BJ to recede, as it’s solidified Labour’s core. Having said that, if an election does happen before the contest, the political situation will be transformed, and it’s difficult to predict what would happen then.
Does anybody have a rough idea of Conservative party membership in Greater London? Assuming that at least 95% of all votes cast were by memebers (which doesn’t seem unreasonable), then I’d assume the turnout was in the 50-60% range.
88 - Yes, they will laugh it off and vote for Ken. Who wants a clown in charge?
88 Psephological question. Does a big army base have the reverse impact that a small University or Higher Education establishment has for the Tories i.e it helps rather than hinders them. I’m just curious as the St Athan development will transform the VoG into a garrison Constituency in the coming years, and wondered about the effect
91. Worked well for the LDs under Kennedy.
91 Well, Londoners have had one in charge since 2000.
92 - On the whole, it does help: Gosport is a good example. But then, you have to have a big critical mass of votes.
90 AFAIK, the Conservatives have about 30,000 members in London.
92 It does tend to help the Conservatives.
First the bad news…. Lightening storms in Monte Carlo…. so nothing for SeanT to do but post…..There isn’t any good news
Why do Party supporters should spend so much of their time trying to convince the unconvincable that the other party leader is crap? Can there be a bigger waste of time? I’m going to try to see Cameron through the eyes of a Tory till the end of next week and give him the the rest of the Bullingdon Boys the benefit of any doubt…….
So to change the subject…….. anyone think George Osborne’s outburst is an audacious bid for the leadership after Cameron?
92 - To some degree - See Aldershot as the classic example I believe.
Anyone know when we can expect something original from Brown?
The big tent stunt was copied from Sarkozy.
The Border police taken from the Tories.
Most of the rest of Michael Howard’s 05 manifesto was adopted by Brown this week,cleaner hospitals,controlled immigration etc
And now he’s ripping off Democrat’s speeches.
Whilst we are used to have policies and numbers continually recycled by Brown, is he so incapable of anything original that everything has to be copied?
16 - Autumn as a whole is the wettest season, but November is not significantly wetter than October (or indeed late October significantly wetter than early October).
Thus far this Autumn has been more settled than usual, certainly than last year, with the result of drier, but colder (though the global warming signal means it is still marginally warmer than average), weather. This is, I think, the best canvassing weather you could expect to get in Autumn.
October is the traditional month for the fiercest storms to hit Britain, as decaying hurricanes get caught up, and reinvigorated, in the jetstream.
The light will surely be a more important factor (apart from the fact that it’s a ridiculous idea anyway…)
100 et al - I know that we have been talking about the effect of the weather on the voters and turnout, but surely the bigger effect is on canvassers and activists.
I am sure that there are many people that in a sunny and light May will spend a pleasant evening walking their local streets leaflet dropping / standing on doorsteps etc. that will be much less tempted to spend 2 hours trudging around in the cold and the rain. Naturally this will have an effect on all parties, but perhaps not equally. Also, perhaps it means that the ‘air war’ will be more important than normal, if the ‘ground war’ has less foot soldiers (on all sides).
Thoughts on how and who this will effect most? (ie - who has the laziest activists…
)
98. Indeed. Aldershot would probably have a “psephological profile” similar to Reading, if it wasn’t for the army base, and gone Labour in 1997/2001. It didn’t.
As it happens, it is a very working class town - though not poor - and they vote Conservative. Gosport is similiar.
Perversely enough, though, as the Army move out, house prices are rising and the town is becoming more gentrified with commuters and families, so long-term it could look more like Rushmoor/Farnborough politically!!
96 How much an effect would you say. Marginal or major. We’re talking probably at least circa 10,000 forces personnel at any given point
I suppose stealing a few words here and there is nothing compared to the Pensions he stole.
How reliable is this?
http://blogs.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/politics/2007/09/brown_to_hold_autumn_general_e.html
101.”I am sure that there are many people that in a sunny and light May will spend a pleasant evening walking their local streets leaflet dropping / standing on doorsteps etc.”
Don’t you believe it. I did the leafleting in my area for the 05′ GE in weather that resembled the middle of winter. I kept having to nip home to warm up with a cuppa, still ended up with a nasty bout of flu!
re 16 Rogerh - it is not legally possible to have an election on a Saturday even if it did allow an extra hour for counting!
105 No more reliable than any other form of political speculation.
I think the electorate in general are not resistant to Gordon calling an Autumn GE. This is of interest:
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article2272.html
If - a planet-sized if - Brown is to go to the Queen and call a GE on the last day of the Tory Conference, when do the rules on equality of reporting kick in (ie will Cameron’s speech get caught in the totting up process)?
97 “Why do Party supporters should spend so much of their time trying to convince the unconvincable that the other party leader is crap?”
Poor grammar but good question Roger. Why do you do it?
109 A self-selecting poll is usually worthless (apart of course, from one that chooses the PBC Poster of the Year).
Pushing leaflets through letterboxes: Why? ‘My god! I’m so glad I’ve read this leaflet, I was thinking of voting for……..but having read this, the scales have fallen from my eyes, I’m going to vote for……now’
As all the parties are now, ‘green’ wouldn’t it be better if they announced they wouldn’t be sacrficing trees in what is a pointless exercise, well it’ll save them going straight into the recylcing bin!
Pushing leaflets through letterboxes, is just a way of convincing, party activists, (sad people anyway) that they are doing something worthwhile.
Apparently Jack Straw is a Hero
Gordon Brown’s magpie-like tendencies arguably mark him out to be the villain-of-the-piece…
Save the cheerleader, save the world…
Someone asked the question a few days ago as to why Labour members are not up in arms about Brown’s posturing as a Tory, with Tories, and with Tory-sounding slogans. The answer of course is that they are well aware that it is all merely rhetoric and subterfuge.
Brown is posing as the unspun candidate, but in reality Labour have elected (sic) another conman to replace the disgraced previous one. The scale of the con Brown is aiming to pull off is, however, perhaps even more audacious than that which Blair managed.
113. We would need to produce a leaflet first and deliver that to tell everyone that they were not getting any more leaflets!
101 I think Lennon is on to something here. The administrators at the top of all the main political parties regard their members as a confounded nuisance, other than when they pay their subscriptions. In The Good Old Days they could be kept busy with envelopes to address and leaflets to deliver, but these days those campaigning techniques are so old fashioned that they are unreliable.
Instead, the parties go in for centralised media-led campaigns, and the Air War is thought to be more important than the Ground War (except in the 100 most marginal seats, which is all they are really interested in, after all.)
Consider the Welsh elections in 2001 - both Labour and Lib Dems printed and published all their campaign material centrally, in Cardiff, and the Free Posting was organised from there as well. That is what we can expect in a November election this year. Most activists will have already taken their annual leave, the hyper-activists will be sent to the Target Seat in their area and the rest will wait for the centralised mailshot, a telephone canvass, and a telephone knock-up (if we are lucky, and considered worthy enough.)
Have a loook at the little piece in the white Times today about the Labour technique for campaigning, and see how cynical/efficient it has become.
115 - Harsh! I think people in the Labour party are supremely relaxed about Brown’s rhetoric. Mainly because the Tories go beserk! It is VERY amusing watching the reaction of the tories when even Norman Tebbit wants to be part of Gordon’s Big Kilt!
Augustus Carp, yes I think Andrew Neil is impartial because he attacks all active politicians particularly the senior ones.
He is gentlemanly with Gwyneth Dunwoody and Anne Widdicombe but does challenge Harriet and Theresa.
Mr. Robinson was just on News 24 talking about November 8th.
If anyone is interesting in what Craig Murray had to say about that lovely guy from the former soviet union Alisher Usmanov it’s on parburypolitica.wordpress.com
Has the thought occurred to anyone that what bothers the Murdoch media is not Gordon Brown himself or indeeed Labour but a big Labour majority in a walkover election?
113 - Grumpy old man grumpier than usual today?
What people complain about more than getting leaflets is *not* getting leaflets.
When I am out canvassing the most common complaint is ‘we haven’t heard from you (Tories) we get leaflets from the other lot all the time’.
Leaflets have many benefits:
- They help combat global warming by encouraging people to grow trees.
- They combat obesity by encouraging people to bend down to pick them up off the mat and then take them over to the bin.
- They keep the art of creative writing alive in this txt age…
- Lots of printers would be unemployed if we didn’t do them.
and finally they keep the dying art of bar charts going.
So no more of this ‘leaflets are rubbish’ rubbish - OK?
116
Lolololol
The deep interest in party politics felt by the British people, was proved today. Greater London, (with a voting potential of many millions) only 20,000 bothered to vote, to select the Conservative Mayoral candidate Boris Johnson.
That means that many,( perhaps the majority) of Conservative Party members didn’t even bother to vote: must mean something!
123 - At last Marcus, something we can agree on! I *like* getting leaflets. It shows that someone cares! Even if I huffily rip them up and throw them in the bin, I still like getting them!
123
Actually Marcus my wife read a couple of my posts, and she said, ‘I don’t understand it, your a lot nicer on PB, than you really are’
117 - “..except in the 100 most marginal seats..”
Sometimes I wonder why we call it a general election anyway. Wouldn’t it simply be the time when the West Midlands votes for a new Prime Minister?
Also, canvassing does make a difference. I’d only ever voted Labour when there was no other alternative to the Tories before. After speaking to the candidate on the doorstep, I decided my vote would be better off going to him than to the Lib Dem.
You can see how much a difference such things would have by the opinion polls, and their volatility. Getting a leaflet through the door is about visbility, and a prompt. Numerous psychological tests have demonstrated how important such “tricks” are, it works on a more subconscious level than GOMs parody in 113.
I don’t want to poor cold water on the Labour party but……….
Talk of October elections seems to have passed and we are now onto November elections. With the exception of one ministerial gaffe by Barbara Follet MP, October has been and gone. We now move onto November which was previously ruled out due to the short daylight hours etc! Another example of Brown and his Conviction politics no doubt!!!
Whilst there is a possibility of an early election, talk of Landslides are well passed the mark. If Labour think they can be trusted to rule unchecked with cricket score Majorities then i think they are in for a big shock.
123 Marcus, in a more heroic age, the political activists of all colours would erect a statue for you in honour of that post. You are a sage and a visionary. Yes, the “we never hear from you” line is particularly aggravating when you know that you have personally delivered that road half a dozen times in the last year. And don’t forget - your own trim waistline is due in no small measure to the hours you spend and the calories you burn in pushing bits of paper through ground-level letter boxes.
BBC reporting that Labour is now recruiting for an election.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/7015995.stm
I still think the article is a little frothy on detail, I can almost hear the wheels of spin being churned.
117 Augustus, could you provide a link or something to narrow down what story in the Times you are referring to. Thanks
BBC spinning for Labour? No - its just part of the well-honed central campaigning technique mentioned earlier in the thread.
It seems Labour members hate the tories so much they dont care that their party is in the process of becoming the Tory party in all but name. I expect Labour will close all remaining Coal Mines in the country by 2009, then leave the EU.
Also, didn’t their used to be another leader of the Labour party? He was Prime Minister for a while I think, before Brown. Anyone remember him?
133. Poor Tone - airbrushed from history already…
233. Coal mines can be profitable now, though open cast is the preferred method. Money is actually being invested in them.
133 - yes it’s becoming farcical.
I am just waiting for Arthur Scargill to come out and say that Margaret Thatcher was in fact just the kind of conviction politician this country needed and what a jolly good job Gordon Brown is her natural successor…
128 - still time for an Election in the cold and rain of November!
Think the last time this happened was in 1918 and I don’t believe Labour won then!
136 Actually is old ‘Artie’ still going?
The people who visit this website are not typical, they wouldn’t be on it if they weren’t interested in politics to some degree. As they are interested in politics, they find it difficult to contemplate that the vast majority, (as shown by the BJ mayoral vote) have no interest at all. For them political leaflets are just bin fodder and thats it!
The elctronic media, and the press are the way to get your message across, the rest! a waste of time!
128
As for the October GE, ‘It ain’t over till the fat lady sings’ The best way to put the enemy off guard is to lull them into a false sense of security, GB has proved by his poll ratings, he’s thought of as canny. The, ‘Blue Harpies’ have got it: wrong, wrong, wrong, so far! they could go on getting it: wrong, wrong, wrong.!
131 In my edition, it is headlined “How to pull in the Punters” and is in a display box on page 27. Sorry, I cannot get the link. Other examples were in last night’s Evening Standard.
Its about time they re-ran the 1983 election on BBC Parliament.
Will get the punters warmed up for the real thing!
Con gain Cannock.
Gordon the tease melts Mariella
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/7014868.stm
Pass the sick bag Alice
140 - I think Augustus is refering to this
Of course there is now talk of a November election as the excitement has to continue to steal the headlines from the Tory conference, to distract from what the Tories are saying.
It is leg one of a three legged strategy. Part two is to announce a string of pseudo-Tory policies (but never implement them) and leg three is to distance Labour from Blair by announcing policy reviews that never come to fruition. A casino anyone. Underage drinking was Blair’s fault, too. What a rotter that Blair was.
Flim Flam Flash Crash Gordon.
137 - It was an odd, but not on the whole a bad, election for Labour. Most of their signficant leaders - Macdonald, Snowden, Henderson - were defeated on the reaction against those seen as particularly anti-war (although this didn’t apply to Henderson). But their modest rise to 57, despite this, was combined with the carnage on the Liberal side.
130. As you know I have been highlighting this factor on your Blog for a while.
http://www.labour.org.uk/new_job
I still find it interesting that on the Labour party website they use to put closing dates on the jobs that they advertised and now they do not!
Even more interestingly the jobs currently on offer are mainly policy development Jobs or technical appointments requiring a lot of experience. In essence both types of roll are required in any period leading up or into a general election. The policy development operatives would have to work day and night to not only formulate sufficient policy but test it on the relevant groups to find its appeal. That is what the Labour party have done in the past and will continue to do so in the future.
I am of the opinion that Labour know that they have been rumbled in these “spin” machinations associated with elections by their organisational shambles. I think they are playing politics instead of running a government of change. The stuff about jobs is just further spin and their is no getting away from the fact that Brown has created a government of deciet.
” I’m hoping the media - following the traditional British sense of “fair play” - will at least give Cameron a fair hearing when he sets out his stall. ”
They will except The Mirror and maybe the increasing hostile Brown nose Daily Mail.
” I think the prospect of Labour going to the country *now* on the back of a few good polls and letting Brown get away scot-free (boom boom tiish) for any accountability for ANOTHER 5 years is making some of them wince. ”
Yes, many (non hardcore) voters are not happy that it’s being forced upon them 2 years early and the general state of British politics (as they see it). They are thinking, do we REALLY want another 5 or ten years of Labour? coupled with, We’re not totally convinced the Tories / Cameron is ready to govern yet…or we don’ think they are addressing the issues we want them to. They think Cameron is definitely the future, but right now???
It’s all very unpredictable and next week is uber-important.
” I am sure that there are many people that in a sunny and light May will spend a pleasant evening walking their local streets leaflet dropping / standing on doorsteps etc. that will be much less tempted to spend 2 hours trudging around in the cold and the rain. ”
Agreed. Help drops totally away from many activists who will help during the spring and summer.
I’ve spent weeks on end delivering in all weathers during Oct to Feb because we just can’t get help when it’s -3, raining, windy and snowing. It’s not fun…. and we got beat in the end anyway… twice… the ungrateful swine’s!
How a GE would change people’s commitment I don’t know as I’ve never fought one in the Autumn / Winter.
I get the feeling that this is the biggest poltical piss take ever mounted against an opposition party, however it has mobilised us and we are now ready for a GE far sooner than we would have been. So much is being put into place right now that will benefit the party in the