Does too much of Labour’s new support come from non-voters?
September 28th, 2007
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Why is it that the lead amongst 2005 voters is only about 3%?
One of the great new polling sources that we have now that we didn’t have last time is a breakdown, segment by segment, of people’s current intentions based on what they did at the last election.
This approach was pioneered by ICM just twelve months ago and now all the telephone pollsters present their detailed data in this way. This gives poll-watchers a whole range of new trends to track such as whether those who said they voted in 2005 are thinking differently from those who didn’t.
This enabled us earlier in the year to observe that the big move to Cameron’s Tories was by people who, for whatever reason, did not vote in 2005.
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Now the polls are showing that much of the big lurch to Labour since June has come from the non-2005 voting group - so much so that the lead amongst those who actually voted in 2005 is only about 3%.
In fact in almost every single Populus and ICM survey where this data is available the Tories are doing better at retaining their 2005 support than Labour.
This could be worrying for Labour planners because, surely, those with a track record of voting at previous elections are more likely to do so at the next one.
Maybe the expected weekend polls will show something different but this trend could be a little worrying.
Mike Smithson
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Doesn’t it also make it more dangerous for Brown to go in the Autumn before the electoral register is updated?
BTW Still want to know what the odds are on both a 2007 and 2008 election?
Shares in Northern Rock have fallen further, down 5%, on claims that the troubled lender has borrowed more money from the Bank of England.
New Star economist Simon Ward says he has calculated from the Bank’s latest weekly accounts that Northern Rock has been given an additional £5bn.
This would take Northern Rock’s total loans from the Bank to almost £8bn.
Both the Bank of England and Northern Rock have declined to comment on Mr Ward’s report.
For GBs and early election sake - at least they have a lead for 2005 voters
What do people think the turnout will be if there is a Nov election? I’m guessing about the same as ‘05 or slightly lower? Don’t turnouts go high only when there is some major crisis going on? (eg 1992, France this year)
5 I’d imagine turnout would be awful in November.
It’s a very interesting and valid point and I’d definitely expect Labour to talk to 2005 abstainers who now say they’ll vote to find out what they’re saying and if it can be trusted.
I suspect they’d find reasonable numbers of two groups that would re-assure them.
The first is non-voters were “Tony Blair abstainers”, people who rejected Polly Toynbee’s clothespeg, but who wouldn’t vote for anyone else. Anecdotal conversations suggest that a number of these are more comfortable with Gordon Brown, and might consider voting labour again.
The second factor is that when elections are deemed to be close, turnout goes up amongst those only marginally interested in voting. My hunch is this tends to help governments in close situations- 1992 and 1964, for example, but those with greater experience than I might offer other examples that favour the opposition.
These two groups who sat at home in 2005- the tony Blair abstainers and the reluctant voters, could well turn out this time. Of course, the polls could also be showing suport for Labour from people who are unlikely to vote at all. That’s why Labour should be doing Qualitative research with these people.
I agree with SeanF. The combined effect of weather, turnouts, and no overiding issue should push turnout very low. It might well beat 2001.
This is a Conservativehome Diary article just posted.
Couple of interesting highlights.
“If an election is called next week the broadcasters have assured CCHQ that the Conference will receive full coverage - to balance the coverage already given to Labour and the LibDems.”
“Slogan: “It’s time for change” is the main Conference message. The message - Gordon Brown is good at playing political games but has no vision for the country.”
Have the Conservatives just set a trap for Brown if he tries to play cheap politics to overshadow the Conservative conference?
There is no clear evidence that Brown is winning over people who voted Tory in 2005 - or not least as many who have switched from Labour to the Tories. These are the most important voters and I think the talk of Brown Conservatives is a myth at the moment.
Would be ironic if Brown were humiliatingly forced into a coalition with the Liberals, what with him saying he wanted a ‘Government of all the talents’
Be careful what you wish for, Gordon.
5- there was no “major crisis” in France this year. The very high turnout was more about a kind of referendum on sarkozy: almost everybody had an opinion about him.
Turnout is boosted by clear differences between candidates or parties.
10 Frank. If Brown and Ming were in a coalition and PR followed, then the Tories might be out of power for longer than the 18 years that Labour were !!
Be careful what you wish for, Frank.
#6;#8 Agree - also November in Scotland is very different to November in London, to go alongside apparent scottish voter fatigue.
The postal vote is interesting as well - how many postal voters confirmed their signatures and DOB earlier this year?
9 - “If an election is called next week the broadcasters have assured CCHQ that the Conference will receive full coverage”
Thats rather scary for brown isnt it? There would efectivly be a week of hours long Conservative party election broadcasts?!
10
‘Would be ironic if Brown were humiliatingly forced into a coalition with the Liberals, what with him saying he wanted a ‘Government of all the talents’’
Even funnier if there was a repeat of the recent Scotland situation and Brown is left to hang in a minority government.
Any result that reduces Labour’s current majority would be humiliating for Brown.
14 simon9999. With nobody watching ….. like all conferences !!!
13. jtc. Strange how our forbears struggled to the autumn polls in the 20th century and managed 80% turnouts !!
OT on the rugby tonight, it may be the bookies are being over generous on the handicaps to England.
Worth looking at for those who take an interest in these things.
Did anyone else think Jacqui Smith’s snipe at TV shows that talk up the alcohol culture was a veiled attack on Sky’s and their Satellite partners programming?
Whatever, I doubt if Sky will take kindly to it. Signs of a growing rift with Murdoch perhaps?
14. I don’t know, if Mike is right, being reminded that the Conservative party is more than just cameron might be good for Brown.. I for one would love to see Jacob and Anunnciata Rees Mogg become the stars of Tory Conference, then perhaps secure a Reality TV show called “Bill, Jake and Nunzy”!
Confused… Thought most polls now were only publishing the results weighted by most likely to vote? So why this new spin on Labours Support not really being there?
The President of the Returning Officers’ association said on the world at one yesterday that the current voting register is very inaccurate. They were doing their best, but thousands of people could be dis-enfranchised.
Brown would do himself immense credit if he announced a belief in fixed term Parliaments, and that the date of the next election was in May 2010.
A new kind of politics! (Where have I heard that before?)
#3 Implies that without the support of the BoE, Northern Rock were cash-flow insolvent. It would only take a revaluation of it’s mortgage book by 2% for it to be balance sheet insolvent too, which I guess is what Goldman Sachs are looking at.
12
For PR to be introduced there would have to be a further election or referendum,would the electorate be grateful to the Lib Dems for propping up a lame duck government,the previous 70’s Lib Lab pact was not exactly a vote winner.
18 - Murdoch is strange to read isnt he. He has said he “likes brown alot” (you can see the hour long interview he did a while back at charlierose.com) but this EU constitution think is screwing things up for him. If Brown doesnt have a referendum, how can Murdoch give him support anymore? “Oh well, you ignored me once, but still, vote Labour everybody!”
Jake: Because it’s weighting rather than absolute exclusion?
9 “Slogan: “It’s time for change”
yep, that’ll be the same slogan that kinnock used in 1992 to devastating effect
Having bought the Times (first time for c. year)to read “Prudence” story in comfort, I was amazed to see how sustained its attack on Labour is:
p4. Brownites claim that row on re-hashed lines is a conspiracy - Brownite “smear” on Times journalists !
Also: plans to raise school leaving age criticised
p6. Immigration and sex slavery - 80 brothels in Peterborough
p.9 Deep cleaning not necessary
p.10 offenders scheme axed early as Justice Ministry tries to save face.
p13. 2 small stories ridiculing conference
p.16 Comment: the speech plagairism: Brown left wing, intolerant, authoritarian
Also: in Brown nosing after his grim address few seemed to notice phrase “British Jobs for British Workers” - Nat Front c. 1979
p.17 The march of American consultants - the outing of Shrum is an embarrassment for Brown
p19 “Prudence”
p21 Immigration levels too high and need immediate action
p28 police attack Straw on “irresponsible vow on self-defence”
p29 Sketch: The highlight of the morning was Jack Straw - thats how bad it was.
Its Labour voters who stayed at home over Blair/Iraq coming back. Simple as that.
20 Mike has had several threads on this subject over the last few months so it is not ” new spin ” as you put it and no most polls do not only publish results weighted by most likely to vote .
Isnt this 2005 effect expected though ?
2005 was largely characterised as an apathy election with a low turnout with both Main parties close to their Core’s.(as Britspin says ‘The clothspeg’ voters).
I would find it hard to believe that people who voted Tory in 2005 would consider voting Labour.
The 3% lead could arguably be the Lib dem chunk that switched over in 2005.
There seems to have been a general consensus on PB that a Brown government would bring back more of the abstainers and LD switchers than any other group doesnt this back that up ?
For Cameron to have a chance surely he needs to be Retaining all of the 2005 vote ,and then some.
23 John. Why would there be a requirement for a referendum or election ??
I presume the yellow peril still support PR and thus it would be a manifesto pledge of one of the partners in government.
Re 5 & 8 about turnout. Accepted wisdom is that on a cold and maybe rainy November day turnout may be very low with unpredictable consequences in a November poll.
I disagree with much of what Portillo says but one interesting point he does make is that turnout is low when there isn’t much to play for i.e. Labour are expected to easily win.
If the polls are closer and Labour may lose / lose MPs or we may get a hung parliament and Brown would be humiliated; then the turnout may be significantly higher as there is something to play for. For a certain section of the population, humiliating Brown may prove irresistible.
I agree with Mike that turnout will be crucial whenever there’s an election. However, I bet you’d find plenty of people who voted in 2001 but not in 2005 and vice versa. I don’t think you can simply fixate on the 2005 voters who are ‘certain to vote’ this time and think you have a representative sample.
You’ll find a good number of 2005 voters who won’t vote this time and 2001 voters who abstained in 2005 and will vote this time ( eg Iraq refuseniks who may be tempted by a timetable for withdrawal statement in October).
As for predictions for turnout in November I’m not as convinced as Sean Fear that it would be ‘awful’. Postal votes will be very important and so will the state of the polls. If the Tories shrink whatever poll lead GB starts with that may well increase interest and get more people to vote.
Yet another useful insight from Mike.
The effect of these “non-voter” views has clearly under stated the LD figures and over stated the Lab ones.
But, why does Brown think he will have a better chance in May? He will look like a person frightened of an election and the longer that Ashcroft’s marginal strategy gets the better the Tory chances.
That is why I believe Brown will go now and it maybe the hobbies of the “Worcester woman” that led him (and others) astray.
21.I maintain that this government has got to get it right with the management of the voting system. Dougie Alexander reduced our elections in May to a joke, a very poor one that left 100,000 voters disenfranchised.
They were well warned about the problems and choose to ignore them, the press started to really pick on these concerns during the election. If that happens again the story will gain more coverage and be a reminder of the previous chaos. There were concerns about people not getting their postal votes in time, and that was in an election planned well in advance.
12. What makes you think I want to see a Tory victory?
I just think it would be amusing if Gordon ‘I want all the talents’ Brown was forced into a coalition.
Met Office predicting a cold winter.
BBC report Brown will make decision this weekend.
This appears to be a change - it was previously reported he would wait until after the Conservative Conference.
Could this mean:
1) He may still go for Oct 25 before clocks go back, or
2) He thinks speculation may be damaging Labour and will rule GE out now rather than letting it drag on another week.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/7017677.stm
mike, you really are in denial aren’t you?
i get the feeling you have made catastrophic errors in your betting and your praying that there isn’t an 07 election despite what you claim to have bet on. The constant barrage of negative press you give to Labour and their progress evidentially shows which side of the line you have truly being betting on. If we take a look at the past 10 days in the betting markets alone we see that Sporting Index, IG and Spreadfair have all raised the Labour seats quote by an average of 20 – Betfair has gone from flirting with 8/1 all week to below Evs and two of the most ‘informed’ bookmakers on the planet William Hill now going 10/11 with Ladbrokes pulling the market entirely does point towards an election – on a market notoriously driven by ‘informed’ bettors i find it astonishing to learn you are still advertising a very anti 2007 election press. The evidence of a 2007 election is overwhelming and yet you are still to report an impartial view over an early election. I would say the style of your reporting/subtle advice is almost irresponsible as so many users on your website clearly follow every word you have to say. You have argued for there being no early election for weeks and now suggest from your articles to be in an excellent position spread-wise…i hate to burst the bubble but i just don’t believe this is possible. Please keep it coming i find it rather amusing not to mention profitable.
October 25th is half term, which makes it unlikely. Also, given what the broadcasters have said about the Conservative conference, would Brown really want the first week of the campaign to be dominated by the Conservatives?
10 - But there were hardly any Lab-Con switchers in 2005. The polls suggest that Brown has won back those who said they would vote for Cameron in preference to Blair.
The Tories have not picked up large amounts of previously Labour-voting support.
24. Indeed but Murdoch will always ensure his bread is buttered on both sides until he knows who is going to benefit his empire best. he is obviously representing the American view over the EU.
However, if Labour commence a sustained attack on the types of (cheap to make) programmes which are shown on Satellite surely they are asking to be dumped by Murdoch.
I seem to recall after the BBC’s attacks against Labour over Iraq that Tessa Jowells started talking about the review of the Licence Fee.
I may be reading things into this but it sounds to similar to be coincidental. Of course Murdoch is not reliant on the Government quite as directly as the BBC so it may be a far more risky strategy for Labour to follow. If I remember correctly the Murdoch papers split their allegiance in 2005. The Times backed Howard and Sun backed Blair? It will be interesting to see what they do next time.
Also be interesting to see what tone Adam Boulton and his team of ‘news bimbos’ (male and female) take.
Thats what I thought they excluded the soft voters….. I’m beginning to take a lot less stock in the polls…..
36 Frank. It appeared the implication of your post. Apologies if that is not the case Frank.
33 I am sure that ICM have done a study of non voters and found that they are split into 3 groups
a) those who never vote even though they may say they do
b) those who do not vote at one particular election for unexpected reasons eg illness .
c) deliberate abstainers in one particular election .
Group b) should be roughly split in party support the same as the voting population
Group c) may benefit Labour if they vote next time
Group a) may mislead Labour and possibly pollsters if they are predominately Labour .
37 fr. “Met Office predicting a cold winter.”
Oh sod it … I was looking forward to topping up the tan on the Scottish Riviera.
42- I think the Sunday Times supported Howard. The Times, Sun and NOTW supported Blair.
45. What about voters who liked 3 time winner Tony Blair but don’t like Gordon Brown ?
31
‘I presume the yellow peril still support PR and thus it would be a manifesto pledge of one of the partners in government’
The minor partner may want it but would the bulk of the Labour MP’s,particularly as it had not been in their manifesto and there was no mandate.
Whilst PR would probably hurt the Tory party more it’s not exactly brilliant for Labour.
Met Office are not predicting a cold wi=net, they are predicting an average winter….
TBH seems that GB may not have any choice now anyway as the media and just about everyone else have whipped up election fever.
re 39. You obviously do not follow my comments enough. I have a sale contract on Gordon weeks at an average of 74 weeks. i have got rid of just a touch of this bet but now have £42 remaining. If Gordon goes for November 1st I make £2400.
I have a buy bet on Labour seats with IG at the 318 level.
47. Possibly, it was a vague recollection. The other thing that as yet is pretty unclear is the Coulson effect. Initials signs suggest that the Sun are less critical of Cameron?
October 25 is a non starter, IMHO. GB wants at least to come back to Parliament for a couple of days for reasons I posted yesterday.
We would possibly be heading for the lowest turnout in living memory.
High turnouts are usually caused by a crisis, or the memory of one (e.g. USA 2004); stark ideological or social cleavages; or the prospect of a close contest.
If Mr Brown only goes early due to appearing to be in an unassailable lead, none of the above would apply.
With the weather, the light, and an unwillingness of the electorate to be dragged to the ballots, we could be well down in the 50s %.
This makes both opinion polling, and the results, more subject to uncertainty.
37 - Met Office predicting a cold winter.
Met Office are predicting a colder winter, not a cold winter! If you read it, it predicts it’s likely to be warmer and drier than average, but colder than last year (one of the mildest on record).
mike i do read every comment you make - i just don’t believe half of it. It looks to me you have made huge errors and have chosen to advertise perhaps a minute number of your bets that have been, well ok.
51 Mike , Are you sure that post is not from cj under another name
One other point of an autumn election to do with electoral registration is students. There are a number of consituencies (Leeds N.West, Sheffield Central, Broxtowe and so forth) where a huge population has literally just moved in and have not registered.
Admittedly most would rather eat beans on toast for breakfast while watching Countdown than walk down the street and vote, but this could have huge impact on those seats.
re 56. I would be delighted to show somebody neutral my Spreadfair and IG Index accounts.
56. What bets do you have on RobT ?
I’m betting on Spring 2009 for the election - got 4/1 this morning
38 BBC report Brown will make decision this weekend.
…and how exactly would they know - answers on a postcard please.
28 “Its Labour voters who stayed at home over Blair/Iraq coming back. Simple as that.”
Politics aside, I’m genuinely concerned that our 5,500 troops at Basra airport are likely to be the target of some spectacular attack during any election campaign this autumn. The intent would be to bring the issue of Iraq to the forefront of the election to hurt Brown and provoke some reaction. A significant body count during the campaign would do real harm to him. Spain 2004 shows how Iraq and terrorists can play very badly for the Government in power.
I firmly believe he should bring our troops out of Iraq before going to the country. That would be an achievement of some note - drawing a line under our involvement in an illegal war.
54. I think you may be right. American turnouts regularly hit 50% and I fear that is where we are going too.
With politics at the schoolboy level it has been for the last fortnight it’s hardly surprising people don’t vote.
63 - Marcus, if there’s an election in November then I’d be surprised if turnout topped 55%, having said that I’d agree long term people are just “switching off” mainstream political participation altogether and IMHO no amount of “citizenship classes” will change that.
mike one has to be careful what is said in public but i think that you do have some good bets running but also that you have some very bad unprofitable bets on the go too. I would predict you have been laying an 07 election on Betfair all day long judging by the string of previous articles you have composed - and now, well your stuck. But i concede, i could be wrong.
47:
I don’t think ‘The Times’ officially backed any party in the end. It just did the ‘Go out and vote, young man’ thing:
http://tinyurl.com/3yx5m2
65. A lot of people laying 2007 - and why not ? there are a lot of good reasons besides pb articles.
Mike
I think you would admit that over the last few months the overwhelming burden of your commentary has been to rubbish the chances of an early election. Your ingenuity in finding some anti early election point almost every day has been truly amazing( you’ve been joined by the vast majority of posters here to be fair). You do seem remarkably reluctant to change a judgement once you’ve made it.Happily for you you seem to bet against your analysis often enough to make a profit.
Surely the worst dangers for political betters are betting because of partisanship ( of which you are certainly not guilty) and betting out of intellectual pride ( of which you do seem to me to be guilty from time to time( eg early GE and Sego).
Still you are very open about your betting strategy so I’m not accusing you of ramping at all. I just think you need to be prepared to change your mind a bit more readily. As Maynard Keynes once said : ‘When the facts change I change what do you do?’
Of course you may end up being right about an early GE. Nothing’s decided yet but the chances were always greater than you allowed for.
It’s bizarre isn’t it that we’re all furiously speculating about an imminent election when the Prime Minister himself went on Radio 4 on Monday this week to say he didn’t need to secure a new mandate and he wanted to concentrate on getting on with the job of running the country.
Monday seems so long ago now…
re: Harry (60) - i bet on events in mind to arb. I originally backed an 07 election and have now closed my position.
I do have other open bets but do not wish to discuss them until i have closed them. I’m sure you can appreciate why.
An autumn election would be on a very old register. In some urban seats as much as 25% of the voters would have moved. Unless councils republish turnout would be very poor. The last rolling registration was September - before all the student halls were re filled.
This will hurt Labour on polling day.
Turnout will drop anyway as the % is stated not on turnout of those who can vote but who are on the register. This includes all the EU citizens who are on the register as published but may not vote in a GE. Over 10% in many areas. These voters are also included in the total electorate for calculating the maximum spend in each seat.
68 I laid 2007 on Betfair last night at 1.5 and backed it this morning at 2.38 . I am now laying it again at 1.9 . My bets are small beer anyway keeping an all green position whatever happens .
68 In fairness to Mike, he has been known to change his mind and therefore his betting strategy, sometimes more than once - two recent examples, IIRC, have been “Brown Weeks” (as stjohn will testify!) and Labour seats. I’m sure there have been others.
40 sean fear- what do you think- putting your neck on the line?
I have been drawn to post again because of the looming election. I just cannot imagine Brown pulling back now- he would lose too much face.
71, thanks David, yes; my original post actually included the registration factor too - but I had to re-write the whole darned thing as I forgot to put in my name etc! D’oh! - especially when one has work to do …
I was fortunate to put a £100 on with Hills early this year at 16/1 for a 2007 GE because of a the LDs were budgetting £1 million for just that. Lord Rennard has an excellent track record in these kind of things and I went with that. I have read Mike’s book and in the last month I have managed to work the markets and increase my potential return to £3.1K if Gordon goes for it for no loss if he doesn’t so I am not Beachy Head bound whatever the outcome. It helps an awful lot in political betting if you initially pick a long odds bet and it shortens dramatically.
I am going for a 10 day holiday walking in Andalucia now and I will not checking out what Gordon is upto much. Bye for now everybody and good punting!
Peter the Punter
I don’t think you can honestly deny the very strong bias of Mike’s comments about an early GE for some months. The same thing applies to the French Presidential elections. It seems to me that he occasionally panicks and goes against his underlying assumption but he soon comes back to it again given half a chance. I think he does dislike changing his mind which is silly because we all get things wrong from time to time.
I beg your pardon I should have said Peter from Putney.
Good article Mike. Wouldn’t you think that the 2005 non-voters who are now voting Labour would be more likely to be in non Lab-Con marginal seats ?
I would have thought the Toynbee hold the nose argument in 2005 would have been more compelling where there was a realistic risk of getting a Tory MP. That being the case, the 3% lead would be the one to use in terms of swing calculators and seat projections.
55 True but that shouldn;t affect voting? Voters prevented by mild weather?
Always worth remembering the ‘hold your nose’ argument counted against Howard as well as Blair.
66 As I recall the Times in 2005 rather than endorse a particular party, named individual candiates from each of the parties that it thought were worthy of election.
DEFECTOR ALERT!
Brent’s first African-Caribbean Mayor and a Labour councillor for over twenty years has today defected to the Conservative party. Councillor Bertha Joseph, who represents Kensal Green, has twice been elected mayor of Brent, as recently as 2006/7.
i do think mike’s biggest mistake to date was re-arranging the polls with his ‘formula.’ We saw polls showing Lab 42 Con 33 and LB 14 - mike simply poured cold water on them by manipulating the figs to what he thought was correct. This is totally wrong - one cannot change the results if we don’t like or agree with them – its a bit like the famous incident 40 or so years ago in the Pacific. A group of US air force pilots were flying around Bermuda and never came home. They crashed into the sea as they ran out of gas. The cause for the cock up was the flight leader not trusting his compass thus they were all taken miles off course. The leader refused to bow to the facts of the compass and decided to use his own judgement by going in the wrong direction – they were doomed.
82:
I can’t remember that, but you might be right. ‘The Times’ certainly did something similar in 1997 and recommended that its readers vote for the Euro-sceptic candidate regardless of party. (In 2001 it just backed Blair pure and simple.)
Paul M
I don’t think that’s true. If you look at many of the 2005 Tory gains they came about more from a rise in the LD vote in the two Party marginals than an increase in the Tory share. I think a lot of Labour voters felt sure that Labour would win and said sod it I’m not voting for Blair. The drop in the Labour majority was a good thing from their point of view. Some of them voted LD, some abstained. Will they come back?. The polls suggest a good many may. We’ll see.
This new defection in London TO the Tories, last night’s local by-election results (bad for Labour), Greenspan’s warning about an economic downturn and the increasingly hostile post-conference analysis of Brown’s speech makes it unlikely there will be an election.
The lesson is that the political weather is very unsettled at the moment - only a nutter would risk a secure majority until things settle down.
84- Bermuda is in the Atlantic
apologies and thanks Chris. Think that poll was a little off too, but similar figs.
88 Rob´s compass is faulty
74: Brown could say something on the lines of although the polls look really good he is going to put the best interests of the country before those of his party and not call an election. In doing so he gets another bite at the ‘Labour strong, Tories weak’ and the ‘I’m a good leader’ cherries.
88 LOL!
a victim of my own story lol!!
84 - To be fair we’ve not seen any polls with a breakdown of “42-33-14″, we’ve seen one ’snap poll’ at the tail end of saturation (largely positive)coverage of the Labour conference (from YouGov) which gave us ‘44-33-13, beyond that we’ve had…
39-33-19 (ICM)
42-34-14 (Mori)
37-34-15 (ComRes)
37-36-18 (Pop)
…it’s worth remembering that Mike was simply trying to place the YouGov snap poll in the context of what the more mainstream polling was showing (in which case a breakdown of 39-33-17 strikes me as realistic).
Looks like they’ll be lots of unhappy punters/voters if Gordon bottles a 2007 GE now.
http://www.williamhillmedia.com/index_template.asp?file=8798
Hills also appear to be offering 5/2 on an announcement next Wed, which without any inside info doesn’t look value.
I’m surprised those voters who couldn’t vote for Blair in 2005 for being turned on by right wing speech Brown gave this week.
Didn’t the Met Office predict a long hot summer?
94 - to be fair i think mike is not trying to do that - it is evident that any good news for labour (in mike’s eyes) suggest a no 07 election and that he tries to see from any angle possible that there will be no election. Even if Brown was overheard by Nick Robinson saying there will be an election on Nov 1st, Mike will come up with some theory how there will be no election.
I’m sorry to be negative but i think this is irresponsible.
Just to get the record straight, i am a Tory voter, i have access to some polls before most, i have press contacts and i’m involved with people in politics and i view things for the way they are not how what my bets say. I really do not think the same can be said for Mike. I just hope no one has been stung.
Though i said previously, Mike may well be correct.
82 Candidates endorsed by the Times in 2005 were
Con - Teresa May, Brooks Newmark, Mark McGregor (!)
Labour - Oona King, Jim Knight, Ruth Kelly
Lib Dem - Parmjit Gill, Sarah Teather, David Laws
84: They must have been very lost indeed if they were flying around the pacific trying to find Bermuda
99 - “Parmjit GilL” - Now you mention it, i remember that, IIRC they justified the endorsement as both he and Teather had “worked their patch” assiduously, but to be honest the idea that Parmjit Gill “worked” anything was beyond ridiculous. I’ve always assumed that just because he was a LibDem and just because Teather worked tirelessly in Brent East he must have done the same… mistake that
.
100: Ah, beaten to it…
A little titbit of information as pennance. Was chatting to a Shadow Cabinet person the other day and apparently CCHQ is pretty much convinced there’s going to be an election. There’s not that much enthusiasm for one, but mainly because of the inconvenience rather then because they’re worried about a disaster.
test
02 - “There’s not that much enthusiasm for one, but mainly because of the inconvenience rather then because they’re worried about a disaster.”
That’s an attitude I’ve seen a lot of over the last few weeks, still think it’s far from certain there’ll be a general election to be honest, but so long as everyone is prepared then “better safe, than sorry”. But an election in November or Labour calling an election to coincide with blanket coverage of the Conservative Party conference, all seems a bit of a stretch to me, even now.
84: Your Flight 19 analogy doesn’t work as polls are just best guesses and thus unlike a compass are probably wrong to some extent.
100 - the funny thing is, is that i have actually been to Bermuda!!!
Isn’t Gordon’s interview with the Today programme on Monday (”No need for an early election” - I paraphrase…) the elephant in the room right now?
97- Dont think so. The Daily Express did though (They constantly print rubbish weather stories. Last year they said Winter 06 would have temps of -15C, ended up being very mild.)
Woody 662
Life isn’t fair. For the moment those voters seem to be giving Gordon a pass. The withdrawal from Basra and maybe a timetable for a general withdrawal from Iraq will provide additional encouragement. I doubt too many will be put off by the review of the self defence law and he faced both ways with additional maternity pay and a heavy emphasis on the NHS and educational standards wihout using the dreaded ‘choice’ word.
They always knew TB wasn’t one of them. For the moment they feel comfortable with GB. That may not last.
91
‘Brown could say something on the lines of although the polls look really good he is going to put the best interests of the country before those of his party and not call an election. In doing so he gets another bite at the ‘Labour strong, Tories weak’ and the ‘I’m a good leader’ cherries.’
Do you think anyone would fall for that,a politician turning down the opportunity of a GE win!
It would surely clear to all that he had bottled it.
Prio to GB’s coronation, PB was full of wierd and wonderful scenarios, permutations, rumours, consultations,etc etc, all proving without a doubt, that someone other than GB would become Labour leader.
It was enhanced by w….. and the rest, all explaining why when he became leader and PM he would be a total disaster, and it would be the best thing that had ever happened for the: Conservative Party!
Hasn’t quite worked out that way has it.
Now it is full of w…. and the rest, showing why we won’t have an early GE, and if we do, it’ll be the best thing that’s ever happened for the: Conservative Party!
If all the crap we got before GB’s coronation turned out to be errrr…crap, what makes you think all of this stuff isnt…errr crap.
104: I agree- personally I’ve never been convinced that we were going to have one and nothing that I’ve seen has changed my mind that much. IMO the only way we’ll get an election is an August 1914 situation where Brown paints himself into a corner and the mobilisation takes on a life of it’s own beyond posturing.
Can anyone offer a prediction as to what will happen to the Spreadfair seats market if there is no election in 2007?
86 Blue Moon. True, but I would think the effect would be more pronounced in non marginals. Labour’s campaign in the closing stages to its core was to not be so self indulgent (as they saw it)to let the Tories back in by voting LibDem or abstaining. This kind of logic would have had no resonance whatsoever in Bootle etc, but may have helped the likes of Nick Palmer and other Labour MPs who held marginals. I’m sure Andrea can find the stats somewhere
111- Didnt Labour get rid of Blair cos he was too Right wing? What happens over the next few months when they discover Brown is too?
102&104.If the politicians can’t motivated for November election, what chance of the voters doing so…..
84
You mean it wasn’t due to the Bermuda Triangle and aliens: well I’ll be!
113 Tories up Labour down LD flat.
105 - u shouldn’t take things so seriously it was a light hearted joke.
Gentleman, best of luck with your bets and hope you all somehow make money out of this affair.
I am off to Eastern Europe for a holiday courtesy of Betfair punters
John Reid appointed Chairman of Celtic Football Club…
good pointer to an imminent election?
111
‘It was enhanced by w….. and the rest, all explaining why when he became leader and PM he would be a total disaster, and it would be the best thing that had ever happened for the: Conservative Party!’
‘Hasn’t quite worked out that way has it.’
Give Gordo a chance he’s only been there 3 months,certainly the public and increasingly the press don’t seem to appreciate Gordo’s stunts and gimmicks,he was supposedly a serious politician.
Anyway let’s have an election and find out!
120. I wonder what all the plastic paddy IRA chanting fans will think of Dr Reid with his supporting of British troops and wearing a poppy ? He may go down like Quentin Davis at the err… any conference.
108 The Met Office did (red faces in July - unlike rest of us who were dying for a bit of sunburn). The Mail on-line edition had an article Titled Very Cold and Dry in the early hours but text suggested mild and dry (though colder than last winter); later editions this morning had Mild and Dry.
Still think a cold early November unnecessary election after the clocks change will not be good for Gordon. Much small majority or close to hung parliament and his authority gone - the Clarkes & Reids would be commenting from one side, the new guns pushing for their chance from the other.
Anthony King’s just appeared on News 24: not only did he completely dismiss last night’s council by-election results but suggested that Labour’s lead was “at least 10%”.
111: ‘It was enhanced by w….. and the rest’
Who’s ‘w…’?
Paul M.
That was indeed their last minute appeal and it fell flat! There was no last minute bounce for Labour at all. I do expect Labour to get a higher share of the vote than last time mainly because of this factor and because, for the moment, the Tories aren’t getting a significant number of switchers from Labour.
The Tories will be voting for a low turnout, for getting at least an equal number of LD switchers and, if they do really well, to pull over a decent number of Labour switchers. IMHO November may help on the first but for the moment they’re falling well short on two and three. If GB bottles it they would have the time to work on this.
124. How did he back that up then?
124. Perhaps he can dismiss last Mays results too ? He’s hardly going to throw his left leaning hands up in the air and admit his opinion polls don’t reflect what happens in the ballot box.
124 - Tony King is a long-time stealth booster for Labour. Despite having a regular psephology slot at the Telegraph he can always be relied upon to put the most anti-Tory spin on any figures. His views are well known in academic circles but journalists don’t have a clue and nor do BBC ‘get me a talking head’ producers.
124 - So King is maintaining that bar YouGov’s “snap poll” all the pollsters are underestimating the Labour lead at a time when the media coverage has by and large been overwhelmingly favorable to Labour for their conference? I dont know if King has a particuar axe to grind (i doubt it) but such a position as he seems to be maintaining seems odd to say the least.
So when the hell is the next poll anyway?
129. Professor Thrasher regularly shows King up on election night - he’s always miles ahead and more accurate - one of the many reasons I watch Sky News on election night.
131 - Didn’t Mike say polls were expected over the weekend, that said i wouldn’t expect whole lot of movement (there’s likely to still be a positive “after glow” from their conference for Labour IMHO).
re 131 We might get something in the morning but more likely there will be surveys in the Sunday papers. I would be very surprised if we did not see both ICM and YouGov this weekend.
129:
I remember when King featured on the notorious BBC local election program when IDS was Tory leader. Rod Liddle wrote an amusing piece about it in ‘The Spectator’:
http://tinyurl.com/3yakp6
134- Cool, wonder if we will see the LDs at the magic 10% mark
A point to those arguing that Mike is either talking his book or otherwise stubbornly refusing to bow to popular wisdom: the entire point of this site is to challenge “received wisdom”!
Following the crowd is a sure path to long-term losses in gambling. Blindly opposing the crowd is simply foolish. Value lies in seeing which way the crowd is travelling and why - and identifying when they are wrong.
To this end, Mike habitually posts articles challenging the media consensus and invites us to argue about it. The idea is that between us we spot when the market (usually overwhelmingly based upon the media consensus) is in error and thus where the value lies. Mike backs up his opinion in cold hard cash.
I remember when Mike felt that he had to swear off of betting politically due to repeated claims that he was talking his book. I don’t want to see him in such a position again. If anyone thinks that he is betting irrationally, take him up on it on Betfair. If you’re right, you’ll clean up.
Personally, I wouldn’t bet against him …
135 Yes, I remember both the election programme and Liddle’s article, and he’s right, it was bizarre that everyone was saying how badly the Conservatives were doing, when they were racking up 600 gains.
125. Jack W, you can’t let that one pass!
125. Jack W, you can’t let that one pass!
Sean.
You’re missing the point. The Tories needed at least twice as many as whatever figure they finally achieved to have any future in democratic politics at all.
I remember around April/May a prediction that this summer had a one in eight chance of being hotter than the previous summer - it was framed in the reports by the usual global warming narrative - but I thought it was just ridiculous - a way of saying they hadn’t a clue what kind of summer we would have. Similarly - and given how frequently even 5 day forecasts can be wrong - I don’t seriously believe anyone in the Met Office knows how cold or mild, wet or dry, this winter will be.
http://www.sundaymirror.co.uk/news/sunday/2007/09/23/gord-s-x-factor-98487-19833791/
“A huge 66 per cent reckon the PM is doing a good job, with just 12 per cent believing he is doing poorly - giving him an approval rating of plus-54, one of the highest-ever recorded in British polls.”
In my opinion, that is the reason Brown will go now, and win big.
Does anyone know of any other PM approval polls for Brown since he took office?…
This is a key paper that should be read.
http://journals.cambridge.org/action/displayAbstract?fromPage=online&aid=591000
143. Perhaps the phone lines were down in Sunderland that day ?
143 The latest Yougov poll gives 44% satisfied, 33% dissatisfied with him as PM, albeit that is a slightly different question.
145 - Are we expecting a Friday Fear article in due course?
Complete Hysteria here. Structured and well managed panic achieveing things and headless chicken panic saying we are facing electoral armagedon. The great war God Brown is comming and going to destroy us all. I must say up until 3 hours ago I really didn’t buy the whole Autumn election thing but I think we are in “Train time tables of August” territory now. Having marched his troops to the top of the hill how can brown march them down again?
146 Mike says at about 5 pm.
140. Aaargh! My first ever double post. Apologies.
142.”I don’t seriously believe anyone in the Met Office knows how cold or mild, wet or dry, this winter will be.”
I agree, this years Autumn forecast is very vague and El Nino is being unpredictable. Last year we had a very cold frosty snap in November, the year before we had snow and the kids missed a couple of days of school. The Autumn forecast will get the general gist of the weather correct, but we will still get freak events. One worry is that they are predicting a higher risk of fog.
141 yup, and the same thing happened in May. Every article I’ve ever read by King starts with a sentence such as ‘The real story in these figures are that they are an absolute disaster for the tory party…”. It’s a shame as ne of his books is what helped me pass my A level Politics exam back in 1984 (when A levels were hard).
I hope Brown takes King’s word as gospel - bring on the election and let’s find out what the country really thinks.
147 - Careful or you’ll be inviting all kinds of military/WW1 analogies (what with the strange regularity with which an interest in history coincides with an active interest in politics)
.
151
“Every article I’ve ever read by King starts with a sentence such as ‘The real story in these figures are that they are an absolute disaster for the tory party…”.
Is this a scoop ? Is Anthony King…….roger ?
151, 153, I do remember one article (which IIRC accompanied a poll giving the Conservatives a 6% lead) which argued the party was doing no better than under IDS.
154 - Anthony King probably thought 1983 was an absolute triumph for the Labour Party and sowed the seeds of disaster for the Tory Party.
155. Tony Benn thought the 1983 result was very good, with 28% of the voters supporting ’socialism’.
Somebody should tell Gordon Brown that his self-styled wannabe spin doctor Kevin Maguire is doing him no good at all. His trawling of the news studios this week full of childish cocky arrogance and bravado a la Kinnock must be a real turn off for the voters.
Pah! A levels hard in 1984 - what rubbish. You don’t know the meaning of hard! Now in 1966 they were impossible!!
I think most commentators agree that 1968 was the bench mark for A level difficulty
154.I remember that one Sean, it was priceless!
157.Not just Maguire, what about Ed Balls, Blears and Kinnock? Some of the nastiness arrogance on display has been pretty unedifying to watch.
On a lighter note, good job the Met Office aren’t predicting the outcome of the election
158 Indeed - I bow to anyone who got A levels in the 60’s
my students today though certainly have to work much harder than we ever did, it’s just they get 5 superficial A levels rather than 3 in depth ones.
Work? Were you supposed to work for A levels. What with the drink, Gurls (lack of), YLs, school play,(in order to meet said gurls) there wasn’t time for work.
Tony Benn has also said in the last week that their should be a EU refurendum.
As Mr Benn is a real National Treasure plus has a son in Cabinet, you would have thought he would get the respect of Tebbit in his views being broadcast?
I think Labour are starting to Wilt in relation to an election this year. They are clearly Chicken for October!
:lol: 
Even the Daily Mirror Editor clearly stated that if Brown bottled it he would be chicken! 
On the same Newsnight program Crick probed the socialist vessel of the Labour party in his usual distinctive way!
On questiontime the government is clearly not the popular junta we have been led to believe in recent polls. I do th