Has the Guardian got a new poll or not?
September 28th, 2007
Above is the front page of the Guardian as featured on the SkyNews website. But there’s no reference anywhere, it seems, to the numbers that are apparently on the front page.
Has anybody got a copy? Does anybody know?
Mike Smithson
MessageSpace Advertising
Maybe BPIX have arisen from the ashes
I’m pretty convinced it’s Lab 39, Con 31, LD 19.
But it can’t be a poll of polls if so, as the Tories haven’t been that low in any poll. And if it was a new poll showing the Tories sinking to 31, 8 points behind Labour, you think they would have led big on that piece of news.
Did anyone watch sky news paper review? Will have a quick look now.
The 1 could also be a 7. If it is then no wonder the Guardian don’t make it from page news. It could also account for the glum/serious Gordon picture. I agree it’s probably 31 though.
Does it refer to this?
http://tinyurl.com/2usgba
The Labour figure looks like 39.
The LibDem figrue is below twenty and looks like 19.
No idea where in the thirties the Tory figure is… but a 31 would mean 11% for ‘Others’ - seems pretty high.
Corby Lloyds:
Lab 1093 (53.5%) -8.7%
Con 375 (18.3%) -2.7%
Lib Dem 311 (15.2%) -1.6%
BNP 265 (13.0%) +13.0%
30.7% turnout.
Crucial marginal with Labour 3.1% ahead - Phil Hope standing again?
With typical figures for Others, probably between 31 and 34.
Well, as you have no link to the original article all I can say is that at several levels of magnification they look level pegging, but as it is a jpg that could be a distortion.
I’ve does all sorts of things to try to get a better view - blowing it up etc. But I still can’t make it out. The paper has been very loyal to ICM for more than 25 years and if it is their poll then surely it would be from that pollster.
What a mystery?
I saw Sky and Anna Botting holding the bloody paper aloft for some minutes but not once was the poll mentioned. I can’t imagine it’s a new poll but then as Bob Sykes says the Tories have never been as low as 31 so it can’t be a poll of polls either. A complete mystery.
Mystery indeed…Maybe it’s time we all went to bed
7 Interesting to see the presence of the BNP this time hurting Labour. A real issue in the marginals is how many candidates they will field if a snap election is called.
With the Guardian, never rule out the possibility of a misprint.
Thats a pretty big rise for the BNP there in Corby?
7. hunchman, but the comparison is with an election faught on a 60% turnout (GE day).
It’s wrong to refer to the BNP vote rise in Lloyds division, because the BNP didn’t contest the previous election. You can’t equate not standing with standing and getting 0 votes.
14 nice one.
16 - true, 65.6% turnout (Waller and Criddle) - differential turnout true. Note BNP didn’t stand in 2005 election. Will they this time?
Ah, I see. Thanks 17.
True Andrea but if Labour see BNP candidates popping up in two Party marginals they’ll be nervous about the impact. Maybe that accounts for GB’s rightward shift this week.
“I’ve does all sorts of things to try to get a better view - blowing it up etc. But I still can’t make it out. The paper has been very loyal to ICM for more than 25 years and if it is their poll then surely it would be from that pollster.”
I doubled magnification and used a sharpening effect to the maximum and I’m fairly sure of the Labour and Lib Dem numbers. The Tories are the only really blurred figure.
Guardian lead story now on website. No mention of poll.
http://politics.guardian.co.uk/labour/story/0,,2179028,00.html
Maybe Gordon’s disgusting ‘British Jobs For British Workers’, ‘Chuck out pot dealing migrants’ rhetoric and todays ‘Shoot your postman’ announcement were designed to throw off the BNP?
….. still no reference to the figures on the Guardian’s website?
Mike - I’d guess this is the busiest evening on pb.com for quite some while - a sign of things to come no doubt!
19. Considering the differential turnout, I think the Corby byelection is a better result for Labour than the Sunderland (which is bad) one even if the headline swing is actually similar.
Yes the Conservative numbers are obscure. Normally if this was important news, it would be on PA or Reuteres surely?
re 22. I think the Tory figure could be 34% which is only one point different from last week’s ICM poll which had C33 L 39 LD 19
Anymore by-election results worth staying up for?
I agree with Benedict. This isn’t a new poll. That’s my final word! Night all.
Did not hear any mention of the poll on the news review which is odd because they normally go big on them, especially with all this hype.
23.I love one paragraph in particular after we have been primed that Brown will have all his data in place on Sunday, which conveniently coincides with the start of the Conservative conference.
“The prime minister is understood to be reluctant to make an immediate formal announcement on Sunday, the first day of the Conservative conference, since it might be seen as too shameless a bid to undercut the Tories in what anyway may prove to be a difficult conference for David Cameron.”
Oh please, after all the gimmicks Gordon has pulled we are supposed to believe this tripe!!
I am assuming that Newsnight did not show the national front pages as they often do at the end of the programme?
re 25. In the first hour today - until 1am we had had 5,280 page loads. Yesterday the total was 51,865 - which has only been bettered on elections nights.
so far this month we have had 839,209 which makes September a record and there are still three days to go.
That Guardian piece also saying that Labour are not expecting any defections during the next week. So, all of the rumours of a big name defecting to Labour seems to have been nothing more than bluffing?
Perhaps Cameron’s going to have a good week after all?
29. Dover…3 contests there
35. Thanks. I’ll catch up with the results in the morning.
Does anyone know when the Dover result is likely?….otherwise I’ll hit the sack
Re 33, Mike, I concede your blog is busier than mine
Well done on the traffic!
These are febrile times, with febrile polls.
Nothing more and nothing less. I have to say that given October is now out Gordon would be a fool to call a poll now and is a fool for having not called one already.
37 Yep me too - Goodnight all.
Might “British Jobs for British Workers” not be a mite unconvincing coming from Gordon Brown and the Labour Party?
Mike, I think the figures could be Lab 39, Con 33, LDs 19. ie it is last weeks ICM poll.
Re 40, John, it is not convincing at all. Common law has little differential between people allowed to reside and work here. It is inconceivable that you could allow someone to come here, and be allowed to work, but say you can’t have “that job” on the basis of where you came from other than for reasons of national security.
(OK, we don’t want ex Taliban working for MII5 or MI6.)
The sky news review is worth watching just to listen to the two numpties guesting on it tonight. The guy from Blur, twittering on about Brown moving the chess pieces to close Cameron into a corner, he also admitted to crying twice at Conference. During Browns speech because he thinks that Labour has got their party back and when Smeaton made his appearance. Where is the sick bag.
That pompous guy from the Telegraph who is supposed to be a journalist was unbelievable.
43. Where is the sick bag?
Sick bag? Sorry, given Labour’s display this week, we’ve run out of bags.
Re 44, Really? Have we lost Harriet Harman?
Golly gosh!
44.The guy from Blur was going on about being proud to fly the Labour flag again! Blair gone, then Brown nicks a few Tories and their policies and plagiarises his speech. It is hilarious, he seems to think that Brown has been this wallflower in the background, incredible!
It’s 39 - 33 - 19.
Taken from last Sunday’s Mirror/ICM.
The Telegraph journalist going on about rich kids like Zac Goldsmith and old Etonians letting the other guy win. Apparently Cameron hasn’t gone big on inheritance tax, EU referendum or the family. I could not get past his prejudices towards the present Conservative party.
Has anyone read the leader in the times. Not good for Brown.
todo mondo vacanza [url=http://363-todo-mondo-vacanza.risyj.biz/]todo mondo vacanza[/url] busta colf paga [url=http://23-busta-colf-paga.jahyp.biz/]busta colf paga[/url]
“I adored you once, Prudence. But now we must part”
51 - Ouch!
Oh what a beautiful morning! Corby swing Lab-Tory, Sunderland Con gain, Gowy a big knock for Lab, Portsmouth another good Tory result.
Where’s this mythical 11%?
Reliant on 2005 non-voters who say they will this time. Dodgy.
Intresting the Sunderland result is the 4th story on the BBC News website, they dont usualy put council by-elections so high up.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article2547545.ece
2.6 Billion down the drain. Yet more waste I see.
Morning All!
Well, a mixed bag of results last night for Labour and in a way I am glad. This will surely puncture this election bubble, fed by some silly Labour MPs and ramped up endlessly by the press (I don’t blame them) who want a new story.
I have always gone for May 2008 personally. The fundamentals are in place, Labour has the money and now in advanced planning stage. I heard on one of the pundit review show thingies (can’t remember which one) that when told about prospects from marginal seats, things look so good for Labour that Gordon just doesn’t believe the forecasts! He is right!
We (and to my horror I include myself!) have all been infected by Election Fever (TM). Senior journalists caught the bug and have been on the news night after night feeding tidbits to us from over-excited young bucks like Ed Balls. Who knows - Gordon may still decide to go for it. But as I said, May 2008 people!
Just seen the Andrew Neil interview with Blears. If Labour wants to see their poll lead evaporate, keep Hazel in the spot light. Irritating++
Momentum is everything. Labour have the momentum at the moment, despite last nights council elections. If they back out of having an election this autumn then there is a good chance that given more Northern Rocks or Cattle Plagues the momentum will turn against them.
Having started the speculation, or at least allowed it to continue, I dont think Gordon can pull out now.
So November 1st it is.
Has anyone got all the local election results yet? The Chester result - (BTW I lived near and went to school and was even chair of the Young Liberals in Chester and have never heard of Gowy!) is clearly against GE turnout, Corby still looks decisively Labour and in Portsmouth the Lib Dem “only we can win here” bar chart, if used, must have been rumbled.
OT - Off to a wedding reception in Chester on Saturday in the Grosvenor - which for PtP, has, or at least used to have, an Arkle bar!
I read the paper today and I know for certain it says Labour 39%, Conservatives 33%, but I forgot about the Lib-Dem share.