Sean Fear’s Friday slot
September 28th, 2007-
Can Cameron turn it round?
Like Iain Duncan Smith in 2003, and Michael Howard in 2004, David Cameron goes to the Conservative conference in a desperate position. Labour has an opinion poll lead that would give it an increased majority, were it to be repeated in a general election, and there are certainly some members of his party who would love nothing more than an outbreak of civil war at the party conference. Many senior figures in the Labour party are keen on an early election, in the belief that this will finish off both the Conservative Party (although it seems unlikely to me that 35% of the population can ever be permanently disenfranchised).
Recent history suggests that David Cameron does have a good chance of boosting his party’s standing at the conference. To my mind, there could have been no Conservative conference more shambolic and awful than that of October 2003.
Yet, a snap poll taken by Yougov straight after the conference showed Conservative support rising from 33% to 38%, and a few days later, ICM and MORI showed Conservative support rising by 3% and 4% respectively. In 2004, the Conservative conference took place straight after the Hartlepool by-election, where they finished fourth, with Populus, Yougov and ICM placing them on 28-30%.
Yet by the end of the month, after a successful speech from Michael Howard, they were placed on 31-33%. Quite possibly, a snap poll after the conference would have shown a bigger boost. Last year, a lead of 1% with ICM, and level-pegging with Yougov, prior to the conference, had been converted into leads of 10% and 7% respectively, after the conference.
Provided the Conservative Party does not tear itself to pieces next week, then there must be a good chance that the party will see its ratings rise from 32-34%, at present, to the 35/36% that it enjoyed at the start of September. And that in turn, would surely make it very risky for Gordon Brown to call a snap election, although perhaps the momentum for an early poll, which will either finish Brown’s political career, or Cameron’s, is now unstoppable.
This week’s round of local by-elections was a good deal better for the Conservatives than the previous two weeks’. As always, however, don’t read too much into any one set of results.
Portsmouth City Council, Nelson. Labour 791, Conservative 682, Lib Dem 548, UKIP 90, Green 78, English Democrat 71. Labour Hold. Both the Conservatives and Labour increased their vote share slightly, compared to May, and the Conservatives moved up from third place.
Sunderland Metroplitan Borough, Washington East. Conservative 1,196, Labour 994, Lib Dem 206. Conservative gain from Labour. Sunderland is one Northern city where the Conservative Party has not faded away, and they worked very hard to pull off this win.
Cheshire County Council, Gowy. Conservative 1,863, Lib Dem 1,419, Labour 307, UKIP 107. Conservative hold. The Labour vote dropped by 80%, compared to 2005.
Northamptonshire County Council, Lloyds. Labour 1,093, Conservative 375, Lib Dem 311, BNP 265. An easy Labour hold, although they appear to have been harder hit by the BNP than the other parties.
Chester Le Street District Council, Central. Labour 324, Conservative 88, Lib Dem 81, BNP 51. An easy hold for Labour, in one of their strongholds.
Mansfield Borough Council, Lindhurst. Labour 339, Independent 302, Lib Dem 215, Conservative 61, Green 35. Labour gain from Independent. Traditionally, Mansfield has been a Labour stronghold, but the council is now controlled by independents. Perhaps, Labour is regaining ground.
Dover District Council, Aylesham. Labour 661, Conservative 108, Independent 59, Independent 1. Labour hold, with a big swing to them.
Dover District Council, Maxton, Elms Vale, and Priory. Labour 365, Lib Dem 274, Conservative 252, Independent 70, UKIP 65, Independent 56. Labour hold, but with quite a large swing against them.
Kent County Council, Dover Town. Labour 1,860, Conservative 1,348, Lib Dem 420, Independent 300, UKIP 256. Labour hold.
Sean Fear
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Is registering one vote (Aylesham) some kind of record? Thanks as always for the piece Sean.
I believe there is at least one instance of a candidate registering no votes at all.
2 - Would that be before you could vote for yourself?
4 I think there was a Conservative candidate in Sedgefield who got no votes in May. I presume she wasn’t resident there.
didn’t the tory in Tony Blair’s ward in May get 0 votes?
4, 5 That’s right
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/england/wear/6615673.stm
The Lib Dems did badly in last week’s locals because their best activists were away at conference instead of canvassing, delivering leaflets, reminding people on polling day to vote. This week Labour did badly for the same reason. Next week the Tories will suffer.
So I don’t know why everyone’s reading so much into these results.
7 - Thats a novel interpretation I’ll grant you, but I’d suggest that as a proportion very few activists go to conference to the detriment of local campaigns.
Gordon Brown will address the nation within the next 7 days.
“I have mentioned before that we will be reviewing constitutional matters such as the setting of elections, methods of voting and parliamentary approval for matters previously subject to the royal prerogative. The last fortnight has seen a frenzy of speculation about an election. This is disturbing to day to day business of the country. As a result I am very happy to advise you that this government is not calling an election at this time, rather we will be introducing legislation during the next year stipulating that each parliament will have a four year term with elections on pre set four year dates. This is a much healthier way to conduct our affairs and removes uncertainty for the economy and everyone involved not least yourself the electors, to whom I am responsible”
Regarding the discussion in the previous blog Re. Prof Anthony King. I remember during the 1992 election night coverage when he went from confidently predicting a Labour win at the start of the evening, to having to admit the Tories were doing much better than expected, to having to concede that Joh Major had won. I don’t think he was a very happy chap by the end end of the night - Mind you, that goes for everyone at the BBC.
Of course, since then, everytime he’s appeared the story has always been about how well Labour are doing, how terrible the Conservatives are doing. I don’t think he was on during the last local elections in May, when the Tories got 900 councilors. Mind you, had he been part of the BBC’s team, I’m sure he would have found a way to spin 900 gains as a diaster for the Tories and Labour doing well.
So I don’t know why everyone’s reading so much into these results”
Last week, there was quite a lot of press commentary about some good local results for Labour, which were adding to the pressure for Brown to call a snap election.
IMHO, you need about 3 months results to start getting some sort of picture as to how a party’s doing on the ground.
Sean,
I think you are being pessimistic about how the Tories should do at conference
1)we have had a lot of stuff about how floating the idea of a snap election unsettles the Tories, and of course this is true, but when they get to their conference it will unify them, and allow Cameron to position himself any way he wants without the troops complaining
2) the electorate is more volatile than is being suggested and in an October/November election the Labour support will be more likely to stay at home than in a Spring election
3) Labour has let the speculation get out of hand to the point that if they back down they look weak. Comments by Ed Balls and others suggest they are not the great political gurus they are supposed to be
Oh dear, look what some fool of a junior minster has been up to, nothing like being shown up to be a fraud.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/england/manchester/7018729.stm
It would be an idiot who took any decision based upon this particular mish-mash of results. Those of us, who know the Sunderland area well, know that Washington East is suburban new town, nothing like Sunderland proper (ie Labour heartlands). The Tory result is quite good (a gain is a gain) and Labour’s City Council goveernance has always been awful it is easy enough to win a Washington ward with a campaign which attacks the Sunderland authorities.
Sean - not sure an election will inevitably finish off one of GB or DC. I can see both surviving short of either party being routed. Brown, for the same reason he was the sole candidate in June - no other obvious candidate in a Cabinet of non-entities and the likes of Miliband seen as needing more time to show themselves; Cameron for similar reasons but also because even in defeat he is likely to make significant progress compared to his 3 predecessors and be left well-placed to win in 4/5 years time (as opposed to 3 years time from now if GB goes long). Only if the Tories stand still or go backwards will Cameron be ousted.
15. IMHO, if Labour’s majority falls below 30, then Brown will be seen as a lame duck Prime Minister. If it stays still or increases, then I think Cameron is finished, unless the Conservatives make sweeping gains from the Lib Dems. I admit, there is probably a grey area between a Labour majority of 30, and one of 64, where it’s not clear what would happen.
Sean,
My colleagues think that if Brown backs off after marching his men to the top off the hill the commentariat will turn on him. The press will be full of attacks on his weakness and dithering and he’ll get a taste of what life was like for John Major. For what it’s worth my view is that Labour has allowed the speculation to run for so long they’ve trapped themselves. If Cameron has a good conference and the polls change, suddenly it will be Labour which doesn’t know what to do.
Cameron won’t be going anywhere, Sean. He’s an impressive campaigner and even if Labour increased their majority (highly unlikely) he’d survive any challenge to his authority because it would be down to a Brown bounce.
Given the boundary changes and SNP gains, a much more likely result - after three weeks of intense and equal coverage - is a hung Parliament. If Brown loses his majority because he bungles the date of the election he really will be toast.
17. Thanks. I think you’re right, and he has been unwise to let himself be boxed in. He’s counting on the Conservative conference being a disaster.
17, 18 - indeed. After my horror earlier in the week at the growing realisation that Brown was really going to do this and the Tories could lose seats, and probably be destroyed as a political force, I am now getting increasingly confident and thinking that after 10 years of making most people’s lives a misery, we might finally be about to get shot of The Dour One and his meddling ways once and for all, one way or another. I just expected him to be crap, not commit hari-kari.
Happy days, I hope…
Election Results: Thursday 27th September 2007.
Cheshire CC, Gowy
Con 1863 (50.4; +2.1), LD Andrew Garman 1419 (38.4; +5.7), Lab 307 (8.3; -10.8), UKIP 107 (2.9; +2.9).
Majority 444. Turnout not known. Con hold. Last fought 2005.
Chester-le-Street DC, Chester Central
Lab 324 (59.4; -11.1), Con 89 (16.3; -13.2), LD Sean Kilkenny 81 (14.9; +14.9), BNP 51 (9.4; +9.4).
Majority 235. Turnout 25.7%. Lab hold. Last fought 2007.
Dover DC, Aylesham
Lab 661 (79.7; +11.4), Con 108 (13.0; -12.6), Ind 59 (7.1; +0.9), Ind 1 (0.1; +0.1).
Majority 553. Turnout 23.7%. Lab hold. Last fought 2007.
Dover DC, Maxton, Elms Vale and Priory
Labour 365 (33.7; -3.3), LD John Mackie 274 (25.3; +6.1), Con 252 (23.3; -8.2), Ind 70 (6.5; -5.8), UKIP 65 (6.0; +6.0), Ind 56 (5.2; +5.2).
Majority 91. Turnout 20.2%. Lab hold. Last fought 2007.
Kent CC, Dover Town
Lab 1860 (44.5; -5.8), Con 1348 (32.2; +4.1), LD Dean Stiles 420 (10.0; -11.6), Ind 300 (7.2; +7.2), UKIP 256 (6.1; +6.1).
Majority 512. Turnout 19.5%. Lab hold. Last fought 2005.
Mansfield DC, Lindhurst
Lab 339 (35.6; +13.8), Mansfield Independent Forum 302 (31.7; +0.7), LD Marc Hollingworth 215 (22.6; +22.6), Con 61 (6.4; -8.4), Green 35 (3.7; -3.8), [Ind (0.0; -24.9)].
Majority 37. Turnout 27.1%. Lab gain from Ind. Last fought 2007.
Northants CC, Lloyds
Lab 1093 (53.5; -8.7), Con 375 (18.3; -2.7), LD 311 (15.2; -1.6), BNP 265 (13.0; +13.0).
Majority 718. Turnout 30.7%. Lab hold. Last fought 2005.
Portsmouth UA, Nelson
Lab 791 (35.0; +3.2), Con 682 (30.2; +3.3), LD Alex Naylor 548 (24.2; -2.9), UKIP 90 (4.0; +4.0), Green 78 (3.5; -2.9), English Democrats 71 (3.1; -4.4).
Majority 109. Turnout 22.4%. Lab hold. Last fought 2007.
Sunderland MBC, Washington East
Con 1196 (49.9; +9.8), Lab 994 (41.5; +2.2), LD 206 (8.6; -5.6), [BNP (0.0; -6.3)].
Majority 202. Turnout 27.6%. Con gain from Lab. Last fought 2007.
20, and somebody earlier who mentioned Brownd Today interview on Monday.
Who was it who said ‘A week’s a long time in politics’ - Certainly seems it this week!
Tory Conference Agenda is now on the BBC website:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/7014969.stm
Final day consists of:
WEDNESDAY 3 OCTOBER
(Afternoon)
1400 BST: Closing speech by David Cameron.
1500 BST: Rapturous ovation
1515 BST: Conference link arms in special chorus of “Chick, chick, chick, chick, chicken” led by David Cameron at the Prime Minister
1520 BST: Land of Hope and Glory; close.
Taxpayers Alliance is claiming that they have been told that the Conservatives will confirm that they will scrap Inheritance Tax next week.
23: oh, and “The Grand Old of Duke of York” would be a good one as well (he had 10,000 men, something about marching up and down hills…)
24: disastrous news for the Conservatives if so. Cut income tax or stamp duty, not inheritance tax ffs!
There must be a lot of head scratching amongst the chimps at CCO thinking how on earth did they get into this mess.
Well, here in Westminster North the Tories seem satisfied there won’t be an election this year…
As I posted on the last thread Iain Dale is reporting that Labour has booked its Event Management company for the whole of October. Election anyone?
Re Tony King, I saw the replay of the 1992 election on the Parliamentary Channel. His face got longer and longer as the night went on.
27 why so? The ppc Joanna Cash is apparently very good
19 What’s your view as a humble footsoldier. Will the Tories even those who don’t like Cameron barring a handful of headbangers now say sod it and close ranks or not?
BTW What Consituency was Sunderland in? Not the one your mob fantasise about winning?
31. “What Consituency was Sunderland in?”
Washington and Sunderland West. Notional Labour majority of over 40% over LDs. I would expect the Tories to move in a (distant) second place at next GE there.
Our Daisy on ITV news has just reported that there is a poll on Sat and one on Sun both with “very good” news for Labour.
33 Hardly surprising is it. As Mr S has already decreed though, it is now next week and Cameron’s performance which will decide things
33 well if it helps persuade the Goblin King to call an election hurrah!
33 - Would that really be a surprise? Labour have just come out of a very solid and convincing conference with a near total media black-out for the Conservatives.
I spent a lot of time canvassing for the Tories in Dover during the late Eigthies although local election results only tell part of the picture, Aylesham were labour did well is a former mining village and Labour’s advance their reflects greater support from their base. The County Council election seat of Dover central covers more marginal areas with high levels of private ownership the fact that the conservatives gained ground in this seat is fairly encouraging. I would suggest that a strong conservative showing at next weeks conference when Cameron gets some media airtime will mean that Gordan will defer an Autumn election. Gordan will remember how hostile press coverage of the pensions issue and the tax cut / tax rise in the budget lead to a sharp decline in his personal polling figures back in the spring . Any General Election campaign will put him under much stronger scrutiny.
34/35/36. It depends on how good the “very good” news is.
32 Hm dunno. Rather like Newport West/East I suspect the Tories will strip the other seats in the City bare to focus on their only target. Even a half hearted Lib Dem campaign must give them a shot at retaining a decent 2nd place I think..
ITV news are reporting two significant polls this weekend showing a lead to Labour.
Both are from the broad sheets, but they are not saying how big the lead is.
38 It can hardly be better than the YouGov speech Poll can it? FWIW actually I think Channel 4 did GB a disservice. Even if the Polls show a more realistic increase on the immediate polls prior to conference the media will compare it with that one which skews the commentary
29. Terrific wasn’t it.
BBC are spinning what a good set of by-elections this is for the Tories. Typical BBC pro-Tory bias!
42 - yes, and I thought the new Question Time set looked very “blue” last night.
Bloody BBC - full of Tory toffs…
40 Punter. We’re really speculating in the dark. I’m aware YouGov were polling today but they may not even be one of the two. In the present fevered atmosphere additional polls are undoubtedly being commissioned.
IMO anything in the +6% range is good news for Labour. “Very good” implies a somewhat higher figure. However I’m now trying to interpet a single phrase of a political journalist !! … Tricky.
42
The BBC are also running this silly photo mix up thing, as first item. Obviously more important than shooting monks in Burma. I do hope when Tory Posters condemn the BBC for being in the grip of the Government, they might ponder on this.
31 My view is that they will close ranks.
33. How would anyone know what was going to be in a poll to be published on Sunday. That said, I would expect any weekend poll to be good for Labour.
44 - “However I’m now trying to interpet a single phrase of a political journalist !! … Tricky.”
Always risky :).
That said, I’m not sure how anyone bar the paper’s editors and pollster concerned would have a clear idea about polls a day or two before their being published, I’m also surprised that nothing has popped up on the Brogan Blog (he seems to have taken to reporting poll tip offs of late).
43 Bob. Indeed …. and that blue backdrop to Gordon’s speech !!
Labour party - full of Tories …
Buying Tory seats @ 240 and selling Labour seats @ 330 on the eve of the Tory conference would appear to make sense even if GB calls a snap election. If he doesn’t, it’s a winter cruise in the Caribbean!
46 Sean. The poll might be published on Sunday but having completed polling today or yesterday.
Perhaps, but I’d be surprised if anyone had got wind of it, other than the polling company and their client.
51 - Still, it’d normally be embargoed, wouldn’t it?
52/53 Sean/Ben. What about Brogan, Dale and others who have had news of polls slipped to them ?
I don’t regard the news that a political journalist for a large media outlet has some advance info on a couple of polls to be anything other than entirely likely !!
54 - Fair point, although a hint this far in advance, not sure when i last saw that?
CH4: Yougov poll tomorrow gives Lab lead of 11%
Jack W I don’t think Sunday newpapers spend large sums of money on polls in order to leak them to their competitors. The fact that pollsters have been out in the field at the end of this week and that Labour ‘leads’ are in the offing is hardly ‘news’. We should hear about 8 pm tomorrow; just after the first editions have been put to bed.
YouGov … 11% Labour lead in the Telegraph
Source Channel 4 news.
Channel 4 - YouGov tomorrow for Telegraph - 11% lead for Labour
57 Blue Moon. Oh really !!
Snap
C4 says 11% Labour lead - same as two days ago.
If there’s a Saturday poll then the news comes out on Friday evening!
Whats the rest off the figures?
Why would news agencies hint at Polls showing Labour leads and not give details..? Doesn’t make sense to me.!
64 - The polling council would probably catch them out on them i think, having said that others on pb.com will be far better informed about how the authority of the polling council is enacted and how far it’s writ might run.
63 BlueMoon. This YouGov has been released over 2 hours before a reasonable deadline.
Some papers are jealous of their polls and others use the pre-publicity to puff the poll and their coverage.
Jack W I’m prepared to say you have me this time! It’s a fair cop! Obviously I’m not pleased by the result either.
I still think he would be mad to go based on polls experiencing not just a Conference but honeymoon bounce. At the very least wait and see if this weekends promised defection comes off and how the tories respond. If the tories have a good conference then its a bad way to start a campaign. I also just wonder about the british bloody mindedness. Won’t there be a back lash if brown effectively cancells the tory conference by executive fiat? Bloody Crown Perogative
What is interesting in the Dover results, (not a place I know, I’ve always hurried through, on too the ferry) I would have thought immigration would have been a ‘hot topic’ there, yet neither UKIP or even the Tories seem to have benefited.
One speech a week does not make. For Gordon’s sake do not place too much pressure on DC’s conference speech. The sentiment is set, the hand has been dealt- Cameron is now but a pawn in Brown’s game rather than a player.
YouGov has the Tories with an 11% lead - and the voters yesterday had the Tories with a 6% lead.
Obviously somebody asked yesterday’s voters the wrong question. There’ll be hell to pay in Sunderland. Heads will roll.
So question - who would call an election they don’t need on a 17% spread? Answer - someone who knows what is coming down the pike for the economy….
No wonder Anthony King was so confident that the Tories were ‘at least’ 10 points behind.
I will say that the Sunday papers do not typically leak their poll results in my experience. They usually jealously guard the 8pmish Saturday embargo deadline.
Mori have just emailed me to say there’ll be a poll on Sunday.
You’ve got to feel sorry for the dear ol’ Bellylarf, it dropped Gallup which kept producing these stonking great Labour leads, switched to Yougov who didn’t, now its Yougov thats producing the stonking great Labour leads.
Still these days as the Torygraph, is more anti-Cameron than anti- Brown, don’t suppose their that upset.
There was an interesting bit on channel 4 news about how the economic picture may not look quite so rosy next year. How people feel in there pocket plays by far the largest part in deciding how to vote rather than foriegn policy like iraq
I wonder whether the Sunday Mirror have got one in the works from ICM.
O/T - anybody watching the rugby, the pundits all have bulbous flesh-coloured microphones stuck on their faces - makes them look like a Lemmy tribute act….
I think I’ll stick with the real results.
74 Mike. It looks like my ARSE will be busy this weekend.
79 - like coming third in Parliamentary by-elections.
Amusing montage of Purnell inserted into famous photos.
http://conservativehome.blogs.com/torydiary/2007/09/fake.html
79
Ever the optimist hey Test!
I pointed out this morning, everytime William Hague, was questioned about the Tories poor poll reading he always said the same thing,’ Look at the European elections, look at the local elections, whenever real voters make real choices, they choose Conservative candidates’ he was still saying it, when he took the full force of the Labour landslide, in the small of the back.
83 - even whoever was leading the Tories (I really can’t remember) at the time of the last Euroelections was spinning them as a big victory. OK, they may have come first in terms of share of the vote, but what was it? 26%?
73 - They susually have to: stories for a Sunday are much more precious than for the dailies. A good poll poached could have a serious effect on sales.
How far away we seem to be fromn the halcyon days of spring, when every poll showed Cameron crushing Brown.
Can I ask the Tory posters here, who I admire for their relentless certainty that Gordon Brown is unpopular, that Labour is loathed, that The Tories will sooon, so soon, surge in the polls- what will it take for you to decide that Cameron simply isn’t all that and a bag of chips?
Personally, I think a lot of this is down to a boadly concieved strategy when Cameron really did have a chance to change the Tories for good. Instead of transforming his party, he decided to de-odorize it, The decontamination strategy may have cleansed the Tory brand, but like scented bleach down a toilet, it has left it sterile, empty, redolent of a faintly artificial scent and not something one feels a strong desire to spend the next four years savouring.
(My answer for the “what would it take” for Blair, was in April 2006- though the events of that month weren’t his fault. At that point it was just a question of what time Tony Blair should stand down as leader, and how could it be done without destroying the party in the process. We came dangerously close a couple of times, but Tony and Gordon managed, to keep the ship afloat, just, and Gordon is now getting the unity of the entire Labour party as a reward for his restraint when he could have struck.
70.75. Dover is very different from most of the rest of Kent. It used to have 3 coalmines nearby so places like Aylesham have a significant Labour Tradition.
Of course Peter Kellner the CEO of Yougov is married to a Labour Peer. I’m sure that does not affect the accuracy of his polls. But it didn’t stop him spinning the local elections results against the Tories on the BBC today. Alas that man did protest too much I think.
Brit Spin - Unlike many Tories, I always thought that the reason Blair kept winning and had a good long-term relationship with the British people was because he really IS a well balanced guy. Brown, on the other hand, is a freak - a political obsessive who is much more of a spinner and manipulator than Blair. Think about all the comments about him from his colleagues, including some allies. Read Tom Bower’s insightful book.
Brown will be seen for what he is soon enough - that’s why he’d be mad not to go to the country now. Furthermore, who can doubt that some of the ministers and advisors who are urging a snap poll are doing so precisely because they’re all too aware of his, ahem, psychological flaws?
Kellner is irredeemably biased. YG may be accurate yet not - as discussed in the last thread.
It really was remarkable last night. I would be upset, BritSpin, if I believed the polls, but I never have and last night’s results confirmed it for me.
Scots MPs don’t want an election (except Our Jack) and Labour blogger Paul Linford was honest on Guido as to why it’s a big mistake.
If the BNP field parliamentary candidates in Labour marginals, IMO they are in a world of hurt.
87
Thanks for that.
But isn’t Shakespeare a Tory?
Re. 10 and 29, I remember watching it (including the re-run on BBC Parliament a few months ago) and he didn’t seem all that despondent. Also, Tony King had at least one good reason to be happy with a Tory victory, when it was exactly the outcome he predicted in his piece for The Economist’s ‘The World in 1992′.
If you want to know the personal politics of King (and Crewe), just read the foreword to their ‘SDP: The Birth, Life, and Death of the Social Democratic Party’ in which they reveal that they would vote for Hattersley in Sparkbrook, Nigel Forman in Carshalton & Wallington etc. (ie centrist candidates from all the three main parties).
As for leaders, if the Tories want a GB of their own (just as they wanted their own version of Harold Wilson in 65, which they mistakenly thought to be Edward Heath, when their own HW was really Reginald Maudling), I suspect they’ll plump for David Davis (I hope so, when he was an excellent Chairman of the Public Accounts Committee, and his speech on 7/7 was Prime Ministerial).
If, on the other hand, Brown’s first speech as PM turns out be his last, then - apart from the names already mentioned such as Miliband, Johnson, Smith, and Benn, there’s also John Denham. I’d like to vote for Milburn, but he made such a fool of himself through walking in and out of the Cabinet in the manner of a chav walking in and out of their local Magistrates’ Court, and he also made such a mess of chairing the General Election campaign.
‘Brown’s first speech as PM’ should have read ‘Brown’s first party conference speech as PM’.
87 - he is indeed. Lost Colchester for the Tories in 1997. Think he was an IDS croney later on. YouGov certainly did a lot of polling for the Tories a few years ago, and their findings on issues used to please the Tory leader - which one I forget. They were dubbed “Anything you want, gov”.
” The Lib Dems did badly in last week’s locals because their best activists were away at conference instead of canvassing, delivering leaflets, reminding people on polling day to vote. This week Labour did badly for the same reason. Next week the Tories will suffer. ”
I disagree, many of the very best won’t be going to conference. I should know !
Matt.
89. Indeed and he expresses his views on Conhome in a column every week. However, Kellner actually called the BBC presentation on the results as naive and was terse with the presenter this morning explaining how bad the nights result were for the Conservatives.
In my view there is little to be derived from these polls except maybe it suggests that possibly that the Yougov poll earlier this week is somewhat awry.
Given there is another poll from Yougov with the same figures in the Telegraph tomorrow it will be interesting to see what the detail says (sadly they were lacking in the previous Yougov poll) Either way it will not be good for the Conservatives but how bad it is we will have to wait and see.
I don’t think ownership affects polling results, after all its in the interest of a polling organisation to get things, ‘right’ or else it won’t get any commissions.
There is a problem with spinning results, certainly by newsapers, who often give an emphasis on certain aspects of a poll which may either under or overstate, the true position.
sorry off to the pub!!
In defence of Peter Kellner - Peter might be married to a Labour minister but that does not affect his abilities as a pollster. The main shareholder in YouGov is Stephan Shakespeare - who is a former Tory PPC and ex campaign manager for one Jeffrey Archer.
Other pollsters have had links with political parties but they do not let that affect their professional judgement.
In answer to the question on the thread.
Yes,David Cameron can and will turn it around.
His speech next week will be superb and narrow the gap in the opinion polls.
Gord will have a dilemma on his hands about whether to call an early election.
A hugely difficult decision for Brown.
Brown will be tempted to go in Oct/Nov, because the polls look good for him and he knows the economy will probably be in worse shape next year. He is still in a honeymoon period and the Opposition has landed no punches on him during the NR or Foot & Mouth crises. GB also had a good summer flood. He is portraying himself successfully as Good in a Crisis.
But… but… after waiting so long to be PM - can he risk it? The possibility of another banking crisis during the election campaign? The can of worms that is the housing asset bubble suddenly opening up two weeks before polling? Awkward questions and then… a fall in the Pound? Suddenly, the ex-Chancellor has no clothes.
This is the nightmare scenario for Brown and, were it to happen, it would be an utter humiliation.
If you were him, would you risk it?
In a more quantitative vein - there is the problem of Scotland. Don’t forget that just a few months ago Labour lost the Scottish Parliamentary elections. The new SNP minority administration is doing well and its leader Alex Salmond is an articulate, intelligent and deadly opponent of Labour. No longer can Labour rely on barrowloads of Scottish votes. The likely loss of Scots Labour MPs in an early election, victims of an SNP still riding high, will have to be factored into the calculations of possible Commons majorities. Gordon, of all people, is acutely aware of this.
Gord will hang on
In answer to the question on the thread.
Yes,David Cameron can and will turn it around.
His speech next week will be superb and narrow the gap in the opinion polls.
Gord will have a dilemma on his hands about whether to call an early election.
A hugely difficult decision for Brown.
Brown will be tempted to go in Oct/Nov, because the polls look good for him and he knows the economy will probably be in worse shape next year. He is still in a honeymoon period and the Opposition has landed no punches on him during the NR or Foot & Mouth crises. GB also had a good summer flood. He is portraying himself successfully as Good in a Crisis.
But… but… after waiting so long to be PM - can he risk it? The possibility of another banking crisis during the election campaign? The can of worms that is the housing asset bubble suddenly opening up two weeks before polling? Awkward questions and then… a fall in the Pound? Suddenly, the ex-Chancellor has no clothes.
This is the nightmare scenario for Brown and, were it to happen, it would be an utter humiliation.
If you were him, would you risk it?
In a more quantitative vein - there is the problem of Scotland. Don’t forget that just a few months ago Labour lost the Scottish Parliamentary elections. The new SNP minority administration is doing well and its leader Alex Salmond is an articulate, intelligent and deadly opponent of Labour. No longer can Labour rely on barrowloads of Scottish votes. The likely loss of Scots Labour MPs in an early election, victims of an SNP still riding high, will have to be factored into the calculations of possible Commons majorities. Gordon, of all people, is acutely aware of this.
Gord will hang on
I’m a little surprised the Labour lead is so large, but as i said earlier Labour have just come out of a very strong conference, with a good speech by Brown that got a pretty positive reception and all this against the back drop of the Conservatives and Cameron almost being totally frozen out of the media narrative for the last few weeks in contrast to the attention Labour and Brown have been able to attract with talk of snap poll (amongst other things), all worth bearing in mind IMHO. It’s nothing other than a good poll for Labour of course, but importantly a poll that has to be placed in the context in which it has been produced.
It’s reasonable to think that (as at most conferences) polls towards the end of next week should show some positive movement for the Conservatives and Cameron, even an election announcement designed “crash” the Blackpool conference wouldn’t alter that IMHO - as SF points out if both Howard and IDS could garner boosts in the polls from their conferences then Cameron certainly should be able to do so, especially when considering when Cameron has regained the media spot light in the past he’s achieved some corresponding postive movement in the polls.
98: Don’t deny it Mike. However something had rattled his cage this morning.
Many thanks for the article Sean, that has cheered me up no end!
Last time I looked it was England 8 Tonga 10. Go Tonga!
That’s got to be a palindrome.
Last time I looked it was England 8 Tonga 10. Go Tonga!
That’s got to be a palindrome.
Labour meltdown in local elections.
No GE until 2010.
Cor. Another 11-Gordons showing is frankly better than I’d expected - thought the post-speech surge would have settled by now to say 6-7%. It’ll be interesting to compare with MORI, since the latter do a ferocious turnout filter (”Not 100% sure you’ll vote? Get lost”) whereas YouGov do no turnout filter at all. Comparing the two should give a clearer picture. But so much for the influence of the Sun, eh? I accept that seanT is likely to win his bet that they will endorse the Tories, and look forward to proving that it doesn’t do either the newspaper or the party a blind bit of good.
Abolishing IHT, if confirmed as a pledge rather than an ‘aspiration’, will ensure the support of the Daily Express too - what more can the Tories want? Confirms the swing to traditional values - who needs achievement on merit when one’s father can assist beyond the grave?
Apologies for frivolous tone - relaxing after long day…
Eng-er-land!
Probably.
Ave it 07. How can the Tories ‘ave it in 07 if the election’s in 2010?
re 105. StJohn - you and I are quoted at length in the FT today in a piece on political spread-betting. Alas you cannot get it on the net without buying a subscription.
106 - and LDs gain Huntingdon, Richmond (Yorks),…
107 How’s the 1997 style landslide Nick. Possible, ever more likely or a dead on cert?
How to ensure a Brown lead over the next few days:
Saturday: Announce a defector from Con to Lab
Sunday: The Conservative Party conference is forced to shut down following a bomb threat
Monday: Announce that foot and mouth has been elminated from the UK following the closing down of the science lab at Pirbright
Tuesday: Announce the Lady Thatcher is of the opinion that Gordon Brown is her natural heir
Wednesday: Call a general election
107. Don’t spin, Palmer (as if you would!). My bet with Jack W was that the Sun would NOT endorse Brown, if there is an election before parliamentary ratification of the Constitution.
I specifically did not bet that the Sun would endorse Cameron - because I think the Sun actually might “hedge”.
But, yes, I am confident the Sun will not endorse Brown, following this incessant campaign on the referendum.
Re 113: I should of course state that is a purely hypothetical suggestion.
114 seanT. Get your guineas ready sucker !!
I predict that if Mori comes up with a Labour lead any less than 11%, then the usual suspect will crawl out of the woodwork and say “Hah! Lead is dropping.”
These usual suspects are those who usually say “Hah! It’s only Mori so we don’t take it seriously.”
The blue tongue virus only started after Stalin met Thatch at No 10.
Surely he’s not creating his own disasters to appear strong?
117 - If its Mori I’m not sure I’d be surprised if they had a 15 point Labour lead on the back of the Labour conference!
Should also note that one of the other YouGov founders is Nadhim Zahawi, who was a Wandsworth Conservative councillor until 2006 (by which time, having made his millions, he could afford to move to Kensington & Chelsea!).
118 - better Blue Tongue than Brown Tongue.
107: God forbid a parent should want the best for their child. Why father by the way? Why not mother?
All money any dead person has has already been taxed at least once. Inheritance tax is insidious.
(A minor issue which won’t swing my vote, but insidious nonetheless)
blue moon at 112: the landslide? Still only ‘possible’ IMO, but if we’re say 8% ahead in a week I’ll move to ‘probable’. Are you still on ‘unthinkable’?
seanT: I humbly apologise to your eminence for inadvertently miscontruing your wager. (Hey, a gracious apology worked wonders last time, let’s try obsequiousness and see what happens.)
A more seious comment: we keep saying the polls are all over the place but they’re not, are they? - apart from that one week after the Manchester murder they have been ranging from “good Labour win” to “very good Labour win”. My recollection of previous campaigns is that they don’t usually shift things more than a few per cent (andrea?) so if Gordon does press the buttom we may have a clear idea by mid-October. Yes, Cameron’s speech will pull it back a bit and mobilising the Labour and tactical vote may be harder if things look too one-sided, but I do think we should be close to going for it.
120: Unlike Stephan and Peter, Nadhim is actually the CEO! (He is also a former candidate, having stood in Erith and Thamesmead in 97)
Now, I really am impressed by Nick P’s optimism. Nick P is never anything but guarded.
I’ve never thought G would go- what would be the point?- but now I wonder.
As for going this week-end and then allowing the Tories a week of free publicity- surely that’s what Gordon would most want? The last thing he would want if he really is going for a GE is nothing but runaway polls, leading to complacency.
Palmer’s Paradox returns.
109
We can ave it in 07, 08, 09 and 10!
and 2011.
Its all over Camo is the winner
The last thing he would want if he really is going for a GE is nothing but runaway polls, leading to complacency.
Exactly. There is hardly going to a great incentive to turn out otherwise.
Another reason to go perhaps? England 36 - 20 Tonga (or would a Scot really go after an English qualification?)
I’m still on unthinkable for 1997 bis. Last night you were only confident of a 2005 repeat in your own patch and we might hope to do better than that in some southern marginals. 2005 repeat including boundary changes = 40-5 majority. Knock off a few ‘against the head gains’ and we could be looking at a smallish majority.
There’s also a couple of x factors like a BNP presence in a number of the two party marginals. Their effect? Frankly I don’t know but it’s an unpredictable.
Obviously we’re in a difficult position but don’t count out DC yet. He’ll come out all guns blazing both next week and throughout the campaign. We could surprise you guys yet.
Cracking game of rugby.
Retraction accepted, Nick. Amazing what a good poll does for your mood! - just like a good rugby match with me, especially if England win.
All is well. A bientot!
130 - england new favourites now.
Con to gain all Cornwall seats at next GE
129- At the moment, I think the effect will be broadly netural. There’s a debate about whether BNP voters are actually Labour core voters, or are more likely to come from non-Labour traditions with working-class areas (for instance, those areas where working-class Tory culture of an old-fashioned sort has waned recently).
Interesting that you can now buy the SNP at 7 seats for 250 each. That means 250 if they hold all their 6 and gain a mere 2. As Punter, Andrea and I agreed it won’t be easy to come up with the second but Dundee West is a possibility ( after Ochil which must be a near certainty). Interested Marcia?
I think I’ll be betting against England for the rest of their matches. There’s a twisted masochistic pleasure in seeing one’s team win against one’s expectations, and losing your money in the process.
Observer
You may well be right. Some of their vote may be ex UKIP too, I suppose. Also how much cash will they have to lose on deposits?
Conhome has the new poll Con & Lab -1 LD +2
I’d like to point out that I have just discovered my hotel room costs €1500 a night.
I am now too scared to take a Pepsi out of the minibar, in case it takes up my week’s wages.
YouGov figures in the “Telegraph”
Con 32% -1 .. Lab 43% -1 .. LibDem 15% +2 .. Others 10% nc.
Some chatter coming out of China about a possible coup in Burma; plus mutiny by troops refusing to attack monks. Very fluid still….
137 seanT. Well if you will stay in a brothel !!
123. In recent times, its true that the polls haven’t moved much during election campaign. I think in 2005 they did move a bit, but not much. But in 1997 and 2001 they moved hardly at all. That was mainly because the Tories were flatlining at their core vote. Are the Tories back to flatlining now? I don’t think so.
You only have to go back to 1992 to see an election where the polls did move through the campaign. And of course, being a Labour man you know about 1970, I’m quite sure. Cameron is an extremely able TV performer, and theres a lot of evidence that says when he’s in the limelight, the public respond favourably. You would expect that through a general election campaign Cameron could be quite a performer and as there’s no real precedent for a “honeymoon” election, we have no way of knowing exactly how well Brown’s Bounce will hold up against the scrutiny of a campaign. Who knows, maybe his bounce will actually improve even more through a campaign?
139. Go Burma. F*** the evil commie generals.
Where did you hear that, BTW?
140. What kind of brothel costs €1500 a night?? I bow to your superior knowledge.
Burma: sounds a bit hopeful. It only looks likely to come right if the troops turn.
seanT: “Amazing what a good poll does for your mood!” So true. I don’t begrudge the LDs their bounce a bit… I still think it’s a bit too good to be quite true, and would settle for a nice 9% in the next one.
135 - In the last election, 81 of their 119 candidates lost deposits; about £42,000 in total. I think they’d be able to save at least 10-15 more deposits if they achieved the same spread; OTOH, while I certainly don’t have or desire any knowledge of the BNP’s inner workings, I’d expect that they’d find it difficult to finance candidates on this scale at this stage.
143 seanT. The kind you don’t have to worry about if you take a pepsi out of the minibar.
so are there no markets on the frequency of the phrase “outbreak of bluetongue” in the press reports of the tory party conference
Apart from the 11% lead ConHome has more detailed numbers …… look away if you’re David Cameron !!
http://conservativehome.blogs.com/torydiary/2007/09/another-11-lead.html
PA now giving details of Telegraph poll and new populus poll in the Times.
HHH POLITICS Poll
Topic POLITICS
Published 28 Sep 2007 - 22:08
By James Tapsfield, PA Political Correspondent
Pages: 1 2
Page 1: 21:47
The temptation for Gordon Brown to call a snap General Election was heightened tonight when a poll gave Labour a massive 11-point lead over the Tories.
Research by YouGov for The Daily Telegraph also suggested that the Prime Minister - bathing in the afterglow of a solid party conference in Bournemouth - was far outstripping David Cameron in his personal ratings.
Some 45% of those surveyed thought Mr Brown was in touch with people’s concerns, as opposed to just 18% saying the same of the Conservative leader.
Mr Cameron was regarded as “out of touch” by 60%, while 55% said he appeared “lightweight” compared with the current incumbent of Number 10.
Overall the poll - conducted over the past few days - gave Labour 43%, the Conservatives 32% and the Lib Dems 15%.
The figures will make grim reading for Mr Cameron as he braces himself for a potential showdown with disaffected elements at Tory conference in Blackpool next week.
Meanwhile, there were further signs that Labour is seriously preparing for an early General Election.
A party spokesman declined to deny reports that events management firm Potcakes had been put on standby to work exclusively for Labour during the whole of October.
Political blogger Iain Dale said the commission was expected to be confirmed on Tuesday - a date which has been touted for a possible announcement from Mr Brown.
:: YouGov sampled 2,165 voters across Great Britain between September 26 and 28.
end
Page 2: 22:08
(reopens)
A Populus poll in tomorrow’s Times also suggests Labour would win an early general election.
The poll was carried out on Wednesday and Thursday as Mr Brown’s first party conference as Prime Minister was drawing to a close.
It put Labour on 41%, the Tories on 31% and the Liberal Democrats on 17%.
end
146. I’ve never stayed in a hotel-brothel. But I did once have dinner in a restaurant in Cuba that doubled as a brothel.
There was just one table in the restaurant, squeezed in a small room. Next door was the bedroom, occupied by one lady-of-the-night. The only way to the bedroom was via the dining room, so the lady’s customer had to push past us as we ate, to get to the hooker.
After he had made it to the bedroom, there would then be ten minutes of very loud bedspring squeaking, so loud it drowned out all dinner-table conversation. Then the client would groan as we silently ate our soup.
Then that guy would come out, bodge the table, and exit, and another guy would squeeze past, as we moved on to the main course. Cue more bedspring squeaking.
As I recall, I think we skipped the after dinner mints.
Beeb reporting that Labour lead by 10% in new Populus poll in the “Times”.
Times poll puts Labour 10% ahead..
150 Moi. The last Populus for the “Times” was :
Con 36% .. Lab 37% .. LibDems 18% .. Others 9%
So a big swing in the new poll.
149 seanT.
150. Crikey. It’s goodnight Vienna for the Tories.
His Gaylording Ponceyboots has got to deliver a speech that makes the Gettysburg address look like “The Quiet Man is turning up the Volume”.
Gordon has to go now!
154 Will. You want our Gawd replaced …. and that wth a 10% lead. There’s no pleasing some !!
Jack - go to the polls
Populus 41 31 17
Populus according to Newsnight:
Lab 41%
Con 31%
LD 17%
Populus in the “Times” :
Lab 41% +4 .. Con 31% -5% .. Lib Dems 17% -1% .. Others 11% +2.
A tenpercent lead means a 97 type, Nick Palmer-esque landside, doesn’t it?
Golly. If the Tories LOSE fifty seats, what the hell will they do? Cameron will go. Hague won’t want the poisoned chalice. Davies neither. They would have to rebrand - as New Conservatives, or maybe a completely different name.
Incidentally, Labour must be kicking themselves. They suffered fifty years of faltering electora