What will Gord make of the council by elections?
September 28th, 2007
Do these make the general election decision even harder?
Having worked for BBC national news for nearly a decade and a half and having been closely involved in politics since I cannot remember a Friday morning when a batch of local councils by elections has made the headlines. The only times the news editors have taken notice of these contests in the past has been when the BNP or similar parties has made progress.
Maybe it was the revelation at the weekend that Gordon Brown is an avid follower of these contests has put them up the political agenda?
Clearly with a possible general election much in mind every bit of evidence that might indicate how opinion is moving will be scrutinised to the nth degree.
The BBC is quoting an analysis that suggests that in national terms last nights results represent a projected 6.2% lead. I’m always very doubtful about such numbers because local elections are just that - local - and I am far from convinced that it is possible to make that sort of projection.
The “Guardian poll” reported in the previous article turned out to be the paper listing as “latest polling results” last weekend’s ICM survey for the Sunday Mirror which had Labour 6% ahead.
Mike Smithson
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A projected Tory 6% lead.
I think those resulats will dampen the mood for an election quite a bit - but not enough!
Labour don’t want to go into an election everyone takes for granted will be a 4th win - it’s a tight balancing act between Gordon feeling sure of victory but leaving the electorate thinking it’s close and feeling the need to turn out. Such blips as these make it easier to show that it’s not a foregone conclusion - but if that’s the case there may not be an election at all!
Well - I hope not anyway!
Labour will be worried by the results last night. These were geographically and psephologically well spread and included battleground seats like Dover, Chester, Portsmouth and Corby.
I think a lot of media commentators and Labour partisans have been talking up the sense of a ‘mood’ sweeping the country - Solid Gordon v Meltdown Tories - and these results are a sobering corrective.
The Tories conqueror the North-east? So it’ll be flat-cap Cameron with a whippet and a pint of mild, calling the bingo at Blackpool then…
Wonder whether there might be a different Northern Rock effect in the Sunderland result. Presumably there is also a larger proportion of Northern Rock shareholders in the North-east - who have been largely wiped out. No Bank of England safety net for them. Can’t imagine they are seeing the world through red-rose-tinted glasses right now…
Generally healthy Tory results which should dampen euphoria after their meltdown in the previous two weeks, but we’re used to Labour local by-election performance running behind GE polls and indeed GE outcomes. so if I were GB I wouldn’t treat them as a decisive argument. Really, as I’ve said before, I’d keep an open mind until the end of Tory conference week.
What day of the week does the PM usually have his chat with her Majesty at buck house?
Remember these are real votes in real ballot boxes covering a lot more people than a opinion poll which normally only covers between 1000-1500 people (some of which may not vote anyway).
re 7. That thesis was well and truly rubbished at the 2001 general election. The academics Thresher and Rawlings used to publish what amounted to a monthly opinion poll based on these results following some success with the same process in 1997. Their 2001 projection suggested the Tories were doing far far better than they actually were.
“Local elections for local people!”
Back after my computer crashed…
I’m sure Gordon will analyse the byes properly (e.g. was the swing from a local election co-incident with a GE, etc) - in fact, he probably infests Vote-2007, perhaps we should go over there and try to “out” him
My mole in the Treasury tells me the big-wigs there think November 1 is a done deal. (She also thinks I’m a wuss for not betting on it, too - she predicted Darling for Chancellor after all.)
As Nick has stated (and as I mentionned on the other thread) these results are a spoonful of medicine to cure Election Fever (TM). Gordon will take these results into account - but we have all (including me!) been guilty of reading to much into local by elections - whether they show Labour or Tory meltdown or not. The turnout is so low and issues are obviously different. However, we shall see in the next week or so. Still banking on May 2008.
Gordon won’t like these. Con gain Sunderland, swing to Con Corby, Con do great in Chester and Portsmouth. Did I miss Dover?
I’d like to thank “Ave it 07″ for coordinating our results last night!
7: Mark - yes, but as any mathematician or psephologist will tell you, the size of the sample is not nearly as important, once it reaches 1000+, as its representative composition. Local by-elections are regarded by most politicians as important because they give a hint of core voter morale (how keen are they to turn out even for this?) and I’d take last night’s results as a pointer to the next poll that weights for turnout showing a lower Labour lead, but no more than that.
In case anyone is interested in the mathematics, it’s briefly like this. Imagine you have a barrel full of marbles, red, blue and yellow. If the actual proportion is say 40-35-25 (no, this is not a real example), and you pick 10 marbles blindfold, it could very easily be say 6 yellow and two each of the others. But if you pick 1000 marbles it’s going to be pretty much spot on (the margin of error will be a few per cent either way), regardless of whether the barrel actually contains 50 million marbles or a billion, and if you press on and pick 20,000 it will only narrow the margin a bit more. However, if there is any bias whatever in how you pick marbles, such as local factors or the difference in local and GE voting behaviour, then there is potentially a much larger margin of error. Both differential turnout and actual votes do differ (the LibDems generally do much better in local by-elections, for instance), so local results are interesting but a national poll is always more important for national parties (and no, I didn’t say anything different last week).
What do you think Nick - still on for this year?
I agree with Mike, council by election results should not be looked at for national indicators.
Its just local votes on local issues for local peeeeople round ere.
The intersting result is Sunderland.Is the ward in THe Sunderlans South constiuency?This usually is the first result in General election and thus gives an early swing indication.
However in genearl a few results with different years as comaparative baselines are of little value in predicting the stae of national opinion.
Rogerh
Another factor for Gordo: the Sun’s campaign on the Referendum is no one-day wonder: it is unrelenting. Day after day of coverage.
60,000 people have signed their petition in FIVE DAYS, and now they’ve got Jeremy Clarkson, Ian Wright, Jimmy Greaves and the woman better known as my ex girlfriend, Mariella Frostrup (yes, Gordo’s chum) to say they too want a referendum.
Ian Wright’s cogent appraisal is here:
http://tinyurl.com/2nom7j
Of all the newspaper and lobbygroup campaigns on the referendum, only the Sun’s has the real potential to damage Labour. Precisely because the paper has that deftly “demotic” feel. When a hugely popular bloke like Ian Wright says the government is breaking its promise, that somehow resonates - unlike a lecture from Open Europe or a blast from Mark Francois, no matter how accurate.
The Sun will turn the rest of its guns on Gordo if he goes to an election without promising a plebiscite. Is he that pig-headed?
I’m with Mike.. when I saw the headline half-asleep I thought there must have been a parliamentary by-election I had missed. Tories gain Sunderland! My god Cameron will have a 600 majority!
I think Cameron will have a good week with the media and the election looks a lot less likely.
14: RedFlump - I have an informed opinion that I won’t post here - i’m now just expressing my own preference in public. email me if you like! (NickMP1@aol.com)
[19] That settles it, then - Nick admits that his boosting of next May is spin
November 1 it is, then…
Northern Rock has now borrowed a total of £8bn from the BoE - equal to a third of its deposits. It looks to be in real trouble…
Interesting that the BY Elections last week meant Worcester Woman had fallen out of love with Cameron and Brown was sweeping all before him. I still don’t think he’ll go this year and these results won’t help.
The BNP score in Corby interests me. Add weight to the theory that they cost Labour 3 votes for every Tory 1. Could they be Labour’s UKIP and start depriving them of 25 seats+?
Not only is this the 4th lead story on the BBC News website, it’s also the most-read story today on the BBC website.
I’m strangely subdued this morning - I was actually coming round to the benefits of a November election, even if it did mean Labour winning a 4th term, albeit on a much reduced majority. If he doesn’t go now then I can’t see the Labour position being any better than it is now come next May or the year after - and I suspect it will be much worse for them - so I reckon it’s now or 2010. And I’d rather see the Tories make 40-50 gains now to reduce the scale of the task next time round.
Mr Palmer if I may ask, if there is to be an early election do you feel it is likely Brown would call it on the day of Cameron’s conference speech, and what would you think of this?
22 - More worrying for Labour is that their likely to stand in Corby at the general election when ever it is (something they didn’t do in ‘05)and could really complicate the seat for Labour.
Having said that there was also a very strong , by-partisan, anti-BNP effort in Lloyds.
The qualitative impression left by these local election results is that the electioneering at the Labour Conference has not enthused the voters. Possibly the complex implications of the Northern Rock affair are only now becoming apparent to them. A brilliant article in The Times today showing how Gordon has ditched Prudence for inflation, reducing confidence in the Bank of England, and unaffordable election promises.
13 Nick , I won’t embarrass you by reading out your effusive comments that greeted Labour gains in the 2 previous weeks , your psephological lesson is let’s face it a load of marbles .
I am not saying that all is lost for Labour based on last night’s results but they do show a discrepancy between opinion poll evidence and real people voting ( how many 10,s or 100,s of thousands of real people voting are worth 1 opinion poll of 1,000 people ? ) . I have backed my judgement last night by again laying a 2007 election on Betfair . Still all green but expect to be substantially more so later in the day .
Raj “Local elections for local people!”
Spot on.
Meanwhile for those who missed Andrew Neil’s sterling work at holding ALL active politicians to account. Yesterday he got stuck into the vacuous Hazel Blears.
http://www.guynews.tv/2007/09/blears-brillo-cookie-monstering.html
She is on R4 Today right now.
Blears interview on Today just finished, Edward Stourton just let her babble on. Just shows how good Andrew Neil is. Conservative politicians need to be well prepared for him next week.
Myths abound. Sorry to contradict fellow Lib Dems! Mike, Local byelections are quite frequently quoted and made a meal of by morning TV, usually when there is something else going on, as there is now. Jon, as a former resident of Sunderland, I can say there are several parts of the city which have been Tory held, and swings one way or another in those wards are regular!
Mike’s serious question - Does it make Gordon’s decision harder? Yes is the short answer. We know from other info that he is a bit of a local election nerd, like most of us on PB! After last week’s good results all the rumours were telling us he was thinking “This could be a good time to go”. I think this week’s will allow him to revert to “default caution mode”.
does anyone have the dover results? Folk on vote 07 claim that it is a labour hold but there are no figures.
Agreed Tim… but I don’t suppose the Parliamentary seats have been Tory for a while/eternity?
29. Andrew Neil is surely the interviewer politicians want to avoid. I remember him deflating Ed Balls last year. Balls was rabbiting on about Thatcher* and pit closures and Neil interjected “and how many pits have been opened in 9 years of Labour” - Balls sank like an airbag with a sudden leak.
17 - I agree that this EU business won’t go away - and will be a huge factor in any 2007 election…
But what good does that do for the Tories either? Sure it will annoy Labour and may force them to take some sort of position on having a referedum on something but this is where I think Ming will have proved to have played a blinder! By turning the referendum into one on continued membership of the EU it puts the Tories at a real disadvantage (such a referendum would rip the Tories wide open again) but one that Labour are better poised to handle.
A Labour suggestion that any referendum should be on the REAL issue of whether or not to remain in the EU will appease the Sun and a Labour govt would be able to campaign for a ‘yes’ to europe vote which they would probably win. A victorious Tory govt would be faced with either campaigning for a ‘no’ vote in a referendum on the Treaty (and has any govt ever put a referendum to the people it hopes to lose?!?!?) or being stuck with a referendum on EU membership that would rip the Tories wide open!
Re Dover, the BBC piece says Labour held all three seats but there was a 5% swing to the Tories in one seat, whereas one of the district seats saw the only swing to Labour of the night nationally - but no actual results.
Signs and forex boards are being ordered in one Conservative target seat that I know about.
Leaflets all set for the first 72 hours, along with full campaign material / calling cards etc.
The whole party is close to being ready to fight a strong campaign now.
We’re gearing up, so bring it on Brown - if your not chicken.
Matt.
17. There isn’t going to be a referendum, and the Sun risks sounds cranky by banging on about it - like a down-market version of the Independent with its incessant campaigns about one thing or another. There is an agreeable element of self-parody about the whole thing - apparently Jeremy Clarkson supports their campaign - good heavens, what a surprise.
I am amused by your de haut en bas enthusiasm for this footballer and his “cogent appraisal” – oh, how gracious of you - who will, you believe, enthuse the plebs in the language that they understand.
In fact, Ian Wright’s anti-Europeanism is so crude that he trots out the old myths about the EU having powers over the Queen, and he even suggests that without a referendum we would lose the pound.
If the electorate generally were as thick as Mr Wright appears to be then perhaps Gordon would have problems. Thankfully, they’re not.
I was contacted and told that Nick Palmer had lost his marbles on PB ……
More importantly come November will Nick lose his majority …..
Ave it Broxtowe ???
On Europe, the LibDems’ bizarre decision (them being arch-federalists) to push for an “in or out” referendum could be very dangerous for the Tories. On QT last night, when Nick Clegg did his UKIP bit (and how odd that sounded!) he got very warm applause from the Poole audience. I’m sure the LDs are just getting desperate in their bid to hold on to SW England seats - but if they are promising a 1975 style vote, how is that going to help the Tories regain these seats when they oppose that? And where does it leave UKIP?
Andrew Neill is a big softie. He will let any politician off the hook if they answer honestly .
Meanwhile …. Simon Carr in the “Independent” on Brown luring “little Tories” into his web :
http://comment.independent.co.uk/columnists_a_l/simon_carr/article3007125.ece
39 - the Libs can call for what they like - they won’t be in the dodgy position of being a govt proposing a referendum they are going to campaign to lose (Tories) or possibly in the position of putting a referendum that the outcome is uncertain (Labour).
And yes it is a very shrewd move by the Libs - they don’t really want a referendum on the treaty because it will be defeated - which as federalists they won’t want - but a referendum on staying in is a somewhat safer bet. And it won’t matter if they campaign on the losing side either becuase they won’t be the govt…
Ah yes! I well remember William Hague, when questioned about the Tories poor opinion poll ratings, his stock answer always was, ‘Look at the European elections look at the local elections, when real people, make real votes, they vote in favour of Conservative candidates’ Hague was saying that right up until he was hit by a Labour landslide.
Press Association
Friday September 28, 2007 7:43 AM
“The Tories have snatched a Sunderland council seat from Labour, sending a grim warning to Prime Minister Gordon Brown as he ponders whether to call a General Election.
With results in from eight out of nine of Thursday’s council
by-elections, Conservatives had snatched back the projected lead.
Labour held six seats but, on the basis of results at Portsmouth and Northamptonshire, Tories look on course for a sweeping parliamentary victory at Portsmouth North constituency and a closer one at Corby if there were an early poll.
In Dover the 5.5% swing in a Kent County Council contest for Dover Town - which covers more than a quarter of the Commons constituency’s electorate - would be enough for Conservatives to take it.
But the outcome in the district’s Aylesham ward produced the only major swing to Labour of the night.
In a further boost to the battered morale of David Cameron’s Tories
ahead of their conference next week, they successfully defended control of Cheshire County Council.”
Election cancelled.
Forget distorted and misleading opinion polls, the people have spoken and Gordon won’t have failed to notice it.
He will be in a foul mood this morning.
37 So all Eurosceptics are thicko plebs; good thing they have these Labour patricians to tell them what to do.
Meanwile II …. Andrew Porter, political editor, of the “Daily Telegraph” on Brown gearing up for an election :
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml;jsessionid=KNS140KQHHUUNQFIQMGSFFWAVCBQWIV0?xml=/news/2007/09/28/nlabour128.xml
Meanwhile III …. Mrs Dale of the Dairy does a spot of moolighting for the “Daily “Telegraph” and says it’s “Do or Die” for the Tories in Blackpool !! :
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/opinion/main.jhtml?xml=/opinion/2007/09/28/do2805.xml
47 - if the new electoral register isn’t ready until December 1st, then surely they’d have to use the old one - 1st December last year? Not as though I was ever sold on an early GE anyway.
Dover result(s) anyone?
Despite some indifferent local election results yesterday I think the “juggernaut” can not be stopped now and we all know how local factors can cause odd results in these kind of elections. I think the electorate in general were not particularly enthusiastic about a GE now in the first place but having had all the hype which the Labour Party have appear to have promoted, they will take a very dim view if Gordon now pulls back on the grounds that a Labour Party win is not so certain. Bottling it in this way does not fit with the image of Gordon that has been built up in the last few months.
Meanwhile IV …. Peter Riddell in the “Times” on shaky Labour confidence should the Tories bounce back at their conference :
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article2547853.ece
Polly offers Dave some advice.
http://politics.guardian.co.uk/conservatives/comment/0,,2179067,00.html
I’m sure he’ll agree.
Meanwhile V …. Patrick Wintour in the “Gruntfutock” on Brown making a weekend decision on an election :
http://politics.guardian.co.uk/labour/story/0,,2179028,00.html
It’s disappointing not to see the Conservatives sticking the knife in elsewhere in today’s newspapers, as they was plenty of opportunity to do so.
http://lettersfromatory.wordpress.com/2007/09/28/could-have-been-a-great-springboard/
37. What an odious and hysterical post. I’d say it was inadvertently revealing of your snobbery, but I’d risk sounding as pompous as you, you drivelling europhile heammorhoid.
Beautiful day here in Monte Carlo.
Remaining results from last night to follow
Chester Le Street Chester Central Lab hold Lab 324 Con 89 LibDem 81 BNP 51
Mansfield Lindhurst Lab gain from Ind Lab 339 Ind 302 LibDem 215 Con 61 Green 35
Meanwhile VI …. Benedict Brogan in the “”Daily Mail” on Cameron returning to a ‘core values’ agenda :
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/pages/live/articles/news/news.html?in_article_id=484378&in_page_id=1770
19 - Nick - informed opinion, eh. I’ll keep a careful watch on comings and goings at your HQ at Barrett Lane in the next few days. Should tell us a lot.
57 - Yes, leading in the Torygraph - Cameron returns to “Core Values”. If this is in any way true, it is a hideous mistake. He is following Hague and Howard down the plughole. He is clearly too weak to change his party. What a shame for those “liberal tories” out there.
Dover Aylesham Lab hold Lab 661 Con 108 Ind 59 Ind 1
Dover Maxton et al Lab hold Lab 365 LibDem 274 Con 252 Ind 70 UKIP 65 Ind 56
Kent CC Dover Town Lab hold Lab 1860 Con 1348 LibDem 420 Ind 300 UKIP 256
“[GB] will be in a foul mood this morning”
On the contrary, this was just what The Great Procrastinator wanted to hear. He can put it off. Excellent news for him. He’ll have a real spring in his step now.
55
You missed a good programme on BBC2 this week, Nick Crane following John Leland’s route through Devon and Cornwall.
No sign of Joan the Wad though!!
34. Nice idea, but no. Gordon Brown has already dismissed Ming’s idea for a vote on “in or out” of Europe as a “gimmick”. I know Labour are keen on U-turns but it is hard for them to turn around that remark.
Also, Labour are too clever to go for an “in or out” of Europe referendum, because, unlike the Lib Dems, who will never be in power, they know that a future Labour government might actually have to hold such a referendum if it promised one.
As soon as it did, the absurdity of this superficially appealing idea would become apparent. Would Labour really withdraw Britain from the EU? Clearly not. So what’s the point in this referendum? It would be meaningless. A hoax. A game to deceive the public. Embarrassing.
And if somehow Labour did convince us that Yes, they would really withdraw from the EU, then you would get massive market instability and huge business dislocation as everyone adusted… which could last years. No government would endure that. No government would wish it on itself.
So it’s a daft idea, no matter how much applause Nick Clegg gets from it. The fact that the Lib Dems propose it, in an attempt to paper over their EU divisions, proves that they are, at heart, still not a serious political party - more a collection of oddballs, weirdoes, misfits and juveniles, first year students pulling sad rag week stunts.
62. I saw it! He went right by my sister’s house. And shall Trelawney live!
Interesting article Mike. Although I agree local results are just local they do tell a different story to the polls which in themselves seem confused.
http://uk.youtube.com/watch?v=x_Cbb7nECTs&mode=related&search=
For anyone wanting a different view on what Gordon should have really said from Mock the Week.
Contains one joke unsuitable for Hazel supporters.
A verse dedicated to the Glorious Citizens of Washington East
Good by-eee, good by-eee,
Wipe the tear, Gordon dear, from your eye-ee,
Tho’ it’s hard to part I know,
We’ll be tickled to death when you go.
55. Apart from SeanT’s babblings about haemorrhoids (?? the condition of my bum is quite normal, thank you) there is a serious point about the referendum and whether Dave will major on it in his conference speech. I suspect he will, even though he originally pledged that he would stop “banging on about Europe”.
The hall will cheer him to the rafters, the press will instantly label it as an anti-European campaign, he will have gained the adulation of his activists but lost the next election.
More to the point, after this, he will lose his job. Step forward, Osborne?
The election was never on - lay lay lay 2007 my pretties..
Scots MP’s against an Autumn poll. They mention voter fatigue, but you also get the feeling that there is a lack of enthusiasm and confidence in the Scottish Labour party as well!
I think that there is a danger of a backlash in Scotland if we have any problems with the electoral register and postal voting, especially after the fiasco in May.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/scotland/7016859.stm
Sid is a bit slow at doing his sums this morning - William Hill odds for 2007 GE not up yet.
The dilemma for Gordon now of course is if he ‘cancels’ the election on the back of a few bad by election results or bad polls he looks weak and timid.
But I suppose he has had plenty of experience of bottling out before so one more time shouldn’t make much difference.
71 - If Cameron returns to a “Core Votes” strategy, that will be the biggest act of political cowardice and weakness since, well, Hague!
Re 70: Its up and its still 7/4.
71 I don’t think Gordon ever wanted an early election anyway though there were others close to him who were much more gung ho .
67. It will be part of it, but a bigger emphasis on nhs and crime will be there. The theme will be about empowering communities taking power away from centre, giving power back to people which is where the tie in with the EU might come in IMHO
**** BREAKING WIND NEWS **** BREAKING WIND NEWS **** BREAKING WIND NEWS
The breaking news is that WIND is reporting to JNN that Labour is private polling in Tory held marginals !!!!
71 As I suggested the other day, Marcus, you’ve already called Brown a coward for not going now……!
77. I’m so predictable, aren’t I?
Confusing set of byelection results last night…County byelections were previously fought on GE turnout, so difficult to make comparisons.
However in the other byelections, Labour did badly in Sunderland…did well in Chester Le Street (safe ward in a safe area, so probably not much instructive as an example) and they gained a ward in Manfield…in Portsmouth Labour % increase was matched by Tory % increase…
In Dover Labour did well in their safe ward…in the split Lab/Con (Maxton and co) ward they won with a low %, but the Tories managed to fall in third place behind LD
I get the impression that there is a degree of tension in Dover on account of the perceived heavy number of migrants entering the country there so interesting to wonder whether GB’s immigration dog whistles had any effect.
Re 79: Andrea - a good summary which surely will not frighten Gordon that much.
Sid did not do his sums quite correctly - its now 6/4 on Hills.
can anyone tell me what the swing is with the Corby, Lloyds County ward by election result
last night: Lab - 1093, Con - 375, LD - 311, BNP - 265. Turnout 30%
May 05 County Council election: Lab - 2620, Con - 886, LD - 707, Turnout 64.11%
thanks
81. Goupillon, the results looks overall less good than the previous 2 weeks. When I went to bed last night, they tended to be on the bad side for Labour, however this morning I woke up with a solid hold in Chester Le Street, a gain in Mansfield, a solid hold in Dover and a not spectacular result in the other Dover ward (but matched by a luckluster Con performance in that ward too). The Kent CC showed a swing to Con, but it was previously contested on GE day, so more difficult to compare.
The Economist (in today’s edition) criticizes Brown “sadism strategy” and call him “an ultra-tribalist bent on anihilating his opponents by hijacking their agenda and co-opting their MPs”
The local byelections last night were exactly that local with local issues and low turnouts. Drawing any sort of conclusions from them is hazardous. However there does not seem to be any evidence that labour is in landslide territory. I have seen it suggested that labour is doing well in previous labour areas because labour voters are happier with the new regime whereas in tory areas the voters are keen for a change, not sure about this but it is plausible. None of this seems a basis for a election on Nov 1.
83 Approx 3% Lab to Con
83. Around 3%
87. Or no election for that matter!
Chris from Paris. He’s only copying Sarko!
83 although the only direct switch was actually Lab to BNP
77 Nothing wrong with predictability!
84 - the Labour “gain” in Mansfield was from Independent Labour, so isn’t telling us much about the GE.
Wake me up if the Tories are making gains in Chester-le-Street…..
Think it will just apply the handbrake to the otherwise headlong rush to the polls, although still feel the momentum is becoming almost unstoppable. Only full stop would be Marcus’ dream of a Cameron love-in, and no sign of any splits whatsoever. And, of course, if Lab private polling does not tell them what they want to see
80- fwiw- and with an election looming now I think I shall illuminate this site with my thoughts;
Brown has almost certainly boxed himself now into an autumn election- please let it not be the 1st November!! I have booked a break then in Paris (wife’s birthday). Even the vaguely remote posssibility of returning to a Tory govt would be depressing in the extreme. I would have to make alternative plans not to come back.
Brown should have an announcement looming to overshadow Cameron’s conference speech. He has almost definitely already made his decision- he cannot be seen to be waiting to see how Cameron goes down, but will want to strategically spoil any advantage Cameron may derive from his conference.
Cameron will confirm the Tories lurch to the right- and jettison anything progressive that he has mentioned to date. Expect no mention of civil partnerships this time.
Result- please Nov 7th (more likely the 1st though arghhh)-
Lab 38, Tories 36, LD’s 20- Lab majority circa 15-25, and everyone coming away happy sortish (but in reality deadly miserable)- Tories have gained about 30-35 seats- enough to keep Cammie in work, the LD’s have not molten down to a piece of unrecognisable iron, losing only about 10 seats, and Brown has a mandate of a kind.
The unpredictable factor though is November- which will probably help the Tories marginally- and why eventually the Lab majority will be smaller.
Will Dr Palmer though keep his job? I for one hope so.
90- Sarkozy coopts some socialists’ grandees but cannot hijack their agenda, they don’t have one!
Besides, one of the few reamining credible French socialist politicians, Dominique Strauss Kahn, will be out of the way for 5 years (including the next presidential election) starting tonight, when he is elected Managing Director of the IMF!
83 (and 87) to calculate the swing take the difference in vote share between the party doing worst (Labour - down 8.7%) and the party doing best (Lib Dems - down 1.5%) and you get a swing of 3.5% from Labour to Lib Dem.
But it is not a terribly useful exercise when you are comparing an election held on the same day as a General Election with a by-election, and have to take account of a fourth party intervention.
(The Tory performance (down 2.7%) fell between Lab and Lib Dem.)
Great to see Labour bods on here spinning DC’s speech as a lurch to the right a la Hague - before the speech has even been delivered! (or possibly even written)
Next thing we know the BBC will be reporting this as fact.
95. That confirms my view - I will be considering a bet on a hung parliament though.
95 - wouldn’t that outcome leave Brown a complete lame duck, with a reduced majority, the Left flexing its muscles, and a “1992-97″ scenario again looming?
And inevitable speculation about when he’s going to stand down in favour of Milliband? We’ve had quite enough lame-duckery and succession speculation over the past 4 years thanks!
96- Chris from Paris- a ha- divine intervention- if the election is to be the 1st November 1st (a 90% certainty IMO) I would appreciate some Parisian insider lowdown of a good place to follow it.
93. “the Labour “gain” in Mansfield was from Independent Labour, so isn’t telling us much about the GE”
I agree that it doesn’t tell us much about the GE, but the gain is not from Ind Labour, it’s from Stewart Rickersey. Rickersey stood in 2005 GE too getting 17%. The other ward councillor there is from the Mansfield Indipedent Forum
Someone just gave me Tory seats at 237 on Spreadfair - eek!
Even in 2001, local by-elections were probably better pointers to the actual result than were polls giving Labour leads of anything up to 30% (apart from ICM). Given that polling techniques have now changed, that won’t be the case now.
100. “the Left flexing its muscles”
they’ve few muscles to flex!
The hard left future in the PLP is quite black…the Campaign Group has currently 24 MPs…6 of them will retire at next GE, 1 has been deselected, another one has lost the trigger and can be very well deselected too
Another factor to take into consideration is the half-terms for schools. I fancy this removes more Tory than Labour voters. In B’ham last year it was early November, but in most years it’s late-October. Also differs between areas.
104 Sean , If you change won’t to shouldn’t then I would agree completely with your post . Snap polls such as Yougov’s on Tuesday are just as poor pointers as the pre 2001 polls were .
105 Andrea. There are few sights on PB more wonderous that Andrea in full rebuttal mode ….. go get em cowboy !!
102 - Andrea, thanks for expanding on that - was merely passing on what I had seen in a brief summary elsewhere, but always happy to bow to your deep background information on such matters!
95- Brown will almost certainly respond with trying to co-opt some LD’s into his full cabinet, and making a clear statement that he will lead his party into the next election.
Whatever happens I think it is almost impossible for Labour to win a 5th election- even if the Tories split, and a new centre right party is formed- the centre right will come back to power.
Brown has to decide nw whether it is worth the prospects of holding onto a majority now, or potentially losing his majority and worse in 2.5 years.
You play betfair right? Brown by going now is playing the cautious option- reducing his majority to secure a mandate of sorts against a real possibility of losing his majority altogther in the future. I always start laying on betfair when in profit- Brown is simply applying this caution to his majority.
The real gamble is holding on- and like Major encountering a tipping point when he loses his hand.
110 - I agree with Tyson. Going now is actually, given the medium-term prospects, less risky for Labour than staying put.
107 I would place the snap Yougov poll on Tuesday in the same league as the snap Yougov poll for the Mail on Sunday on 12/10/03 that showed Conservative support rising to 38% straight after their horrendous conference.
108-”Andrea. There are few sights on PB more wonderous that Andrea in full rebuttal mode ….. go get em cowboy !!”
Better Jack W even than the sight of your ARSE?
95 “Even the vaguely remote posssibility of returning to a Tory govt would be depressing in the extreme. I would have to make alternative plans not to come back.”
Tyson, in the event of a Tory Govt, you wouldn’t be allowed back in. There have to be some perks to power…
110. But Major played it long and won the election in 1992, despite the recession.
Brown’s rune-reading won’t tell him much…
Learn from Wilson - don’t call snap election
Learn from Heath - don’t call unnecessary election
Learn from Callaghan - don’t flunk early poll
Learn from Major - go long
As I said yesterday, I cannot believe that a politician of Brown’s experience would seriously contemplate risking his entire career and reputation on a couple of weeks’ worth of opinion polls, however promising.
Over a 20 year career he has shown deep confidence in his abilities. Don’t expect him now to cut and run, just as he’s got his hands on the levers.
111- observer- as a cautious better I prefer money in my hand rather than risking it all for a better pay off.
This will be Brown’s attitude to the opinion polls- those 28% ICM polls with Cameron having 14% leads on named leader questions in the Blair era will be etched in his mind. The 66 majority is not relevant here- it is what the opinion polls are saying.
111 - I’d agree, it’s hugely unpredictable bearing in mind the volatility of the polls, the high likelihood of massive regional variations, a national Labour organization that will only be partly in place by the end of next week and the strong possibility of a low turnout in November, but at the same time perhaps the chance of a clear Labour majority is greater now than its likely to be at any time in the next two to three years.
That said, it’s still a pretty massive gamble - like going to war in the winter, without a properly mobilized or equipped army, against a more prepared enemy and with limited intelligence (or am i taking that metaphor too far?).
115 - Arguably, he would have done better to go in early spring of 1991 after the Iraq war.
Those polls that showed candidate Brown to be unpopular are still relevant because, in the context of the current polls, they show just how volatile the electorate is.
Voters could jump either way in regard Flash.
Brown will surely only go now if he thinks he will win big (maj of circa 100). A difficult call, too.
Do so, win big, and then it’s probably another nine years in power for Lab (given even the most bullish of Con supporters admits that you need two elections to move from around 200 seats to 300-plus) meaning he can groom his successor.
Get it wrong, and the balloon goes up, even if Lab returned. Minimum acceptable result for Brown must be maj of 60. Less than that and the heat will be on, with DC strengthened and emboldened
From what she was posting yesterday, can we now say there’s not a snowflake-in-the-Tory-Party’s chance of a GE anytime soon?
109. Marquee Mark, I checked the May 2007 results and the resigning councillor was labelled simply as “Independent”. Googling the name, I saw he stood in 2005 GE as Indipendent and that he was also involved in the campaign team of the Independent Mansfield Mayor (elected in 2003 and easily re-elected in 2007). He seems to be a local businessman. He was an Indy in 2003 elections too
However I don’t know if he was Labour years ago, but if he was, he has been an Indy for some good time by now.
Indipendents are quite strong in Manfield at local level..in 2005 GE they stood and they seem to have taken votes away from both Lab and Con (2005 Lab -9%, Con -8.8%, Ind +17%).
However we agree that it’s not a significant result to draw any judgement on GE potential performances (apart in Mansfield which is not a key battleground anyway)
120. Ergo no election this year. Bird in the hand etc.
What will the narrative/spin given for calling a General Election? The Gordon needs a mandate argument seems frought with dangers. Is a mandate a majority of 1 or does he need to do better than Blair, who was damaged because of Iraq?
Didn’t he have a proxy mandate at the last election when we were voting Blair knowing we’d get Brown?
How can we give him a mandate when we’ve had little time to get to know who he is?
These are all questions the ’spin boys’ need convincing answers to before Gordon can be propelled to the forefront of a campaign.
Witan- do not agree- the previous named leader polls were entirely artificial- there were a limited few of us here saying that that.
The polls now are real- real situation, real head to head. Brown and Labour currently have circa a 5-6% consistent lead- likely to whittle down about 3/4% in an election (as ususal)- maybe the unpredictability of a November election even further. But this could be as good as it gets for Gordon- and it could get a down sight worse
124 Perhaps, but given DC and Ming the Merciless both demanded an election saying GB had no mandate when he was crowned, it will not be a difficult one to pull off
2007 now 1.92 on betfair - get ready for 1.5 by tomorrow morning..
Hills have now cut 2007 GE to 11/10
Darlington has voted against a directly elected Mayor…turnout 24%
YES: 7981
NO: 11226
DEFECTION ALERT!!!
http://tinyurl.com/2ujvno
113 Tyson. You might think so ….. I couldn’t possibly comment.
130 - This must the Lab-Con local defection rumoured in the past week or so.
ConHome reports that John Bercow has been reselected for Buckingham last night.
26
‘The qualitative impression left by these local election results is that the electioneering at the Labour Conference has not enthused the voters.’
Yes,it hasn’t taken the electorate long to see through Brown’s gimmicks and stunts,we had been told that he was a serious politician.
Hopefully Brown is now in a corner where he can’t back out of an October / November election.
Any odds yet on Brown holding the shortest term as Prime minister since Canning?
130 and 132 I’m gobsmacked. I thought Bertha Joseph was Labour through and through. She’s a very well-liked councillor in Brent.
The defection of the Brent Councillor from Labour to Conservative isn’t just signifcant in terms of being a defection (because in some small bizarre way they all count) but because of the political pedegree of the person involved.
It might be worth noting that alot of officers and activists who could have been working the campaigns for Labour may well have been in Bournemouth. Just a thought.
BTW What are the current odds on a 2007 election and a 2008 one?
I’m serious
Oh how the worm is turning.
Could it be chicken Brown, running away from the electorate on an unelected mandate?
Labour have ramped up the prospect of an Autumn election to such a degree that it’s now seen as going to happen no matter what.
The Tories know they are in a better position that everyone is suggesting. We’ve mobilised and are gearing up way before we were planning to. It’s pulling the party together and the press are realing that they cannot allow a one party state.
So, I say… there’s no going back now Labour… you’ve made your bed, now let’s have an election.
As the great Homer Simpson said, ” I hereby declare you Chicken For Life! Every morning when you get up, I’ll say “Good morning, Chicken!” And at your wedding I’ll sing (To the tune of “Here comes the bride”) “Bawk bawk bawk bawk! Bawk bawk bawk bawk! Bawk, bawk bawk- ”
He’s not wrong.
Matt.
I’m sure Brown is having food for thought today, with some of these by-election results, but I really can’t see how he can get out of an election now, without being seriously damaged. He has allowed the fire to be stoked to such a degree that backing out now will look incredibly weak and the public will react badly to all the posturing thats been going on, when you would think he should be running the country.
I think he’s just got to go for it now, and cross his fingers. Frankly, he shouldn’t have been to stupid to get himself into this situation, but he’s in it now, so backing out now doesn’t really seem an option - Well, not without a big backlash, anyway.
There are two serious drawbacks about relying on council by elections.
The first is the existence in most cases of local factors which affect the result; ‘ Tory miss whiplash’ Labour councillor buggering off to Scotland etc etc.
The other is the very low turnouts often seen. I haven’t seen how low the turnouts were last night but it is ridiculous of the BBC to pretend that one can project a 6% Tory national lead on the back of yesterday’s results. If that were the case we might as well rip up all the national polls and forget them.
If there had been a GE last night and the turnout had been as low as in these byelections then Labour would probably have lost its majority. Plainly the second of those hypotheses is absurd.
If we are to take seriously the art of analysing local council by elections we need to adjust somehow for turnout. Labour will, I’m sure, do better the higher the turnout. Can one measure this somehow? What would the result have been in Portsmouth on a 60% turnout? Is there some sort of rough and ready linear equation which one could attempt to apply in order to arrive at an estimate?
If GB bottles it now I doubt he’ll find the omens more propitious next May. The European issue can be finessed far more easily now by the simple expedient of refusing to sign up to the Treaty in October and perhaps even staging a row at the European Council in October over the red lines. That will not be possible next May. A looming economic downturn and consumer spending slowing add to the case against May 2008.
I note that GB is said to be taking the decision this weekend; perhaps he doesn’t want to be seen to be deciding on the basis of DC’s performance. However, if he supposedly takes the decision before DC’s speech and it’s announced or let known afterwards, people will not be fooled; DC will have achieved a great victory and knocked Labour off its best chance of victory.
139 Possibly so. But if the private polling doesn’t look good, he will just have to ride it out. Personally, I think he will go for it, but that’s a hunch rather than anything else. And, so far, he’s had the extra factor that any PM wants - good luck
I have to say that if Brown wanted a fractious, bitter Tory Conference next week, he has cocked it up spectactularly, even by his standards of cocking things up spectacularly.
What better way of uniting the Tory factions (and I dare say even the “Tory Press”) than an immediate general election?
As George Osborne is saying - if he goes, the Tories will have been able to do more advance planning than any Opposition has had for years; if he doesn’t, then he’s a big cowardy custard who’s bottled it.
Don’t Governments always hope to catch the Opposition on the back foot when it comes to election announcements?
Could the EU Constitution issue be finessed by “We are determined to hold to our red lines. If these are respected, then it will be for Parliament to decide. However, if they are not respected, it would only be right that the settled will of the British people makes the decision for the future of this country and Europe” ?
If we are to take seriously the art of analysing local council by elections we need to adjust somehow for turnout.
I’m sure Brown will. My own suggestion is calculating notional 2005 results from the last round of results; applying the multiplier you obtain to the bye results; and then calculating the swing. It probably needs refinement, and I haven’t tested it yet.
140 I agree about the local by-election results. But it works both ways - Labour activists would be unwise to urge Brown to go simply becuase of good results in Nuneaton and Worcester last week.
Surely Brown has to wait and see how the Conservative conference goes. The last thing he wants is to go for a November 1st election, and then find the polls have moved back to where they were at the start of September.
140. “If we are to take seriously the art of analysing local council by elections we need to adjust somehow for turnout. Labour will, I’m sure, do better the higher the turnout. Can one measure this somehow? What would the result have been in Portsmouth on a 60% turnout? Is there some sort of rough and ready linear equation which one could attempt to apply in order to arrive at an estimate?”
Government parties usually suffer more in local elections because they’re usually hit harder by differential turnout than opposition (apart in honeymoons). So local elections result shouldn’t be taken directly and transfered to GE performance. However if trends can be observed: even if turnout is low, if party X is getting a bounce, it should perform better now compared to the previous result in equally low turnout. Comparisons become messy when the byelection result is compared to a previous result on GE day with a totally different turnout.
135/ 136-Sean Fear and Councillor Little- maybe the selection of Boris is the answer!!- the Bill Clinton of the Tories able to bring the black vote over en masse.
Personally I think we must order an immediate mental health assessment on the woman. She has clearly lost her marbles, is delusional (probably thinks that she is married to Cameron or something- believe me these things happen) and in urgent need of medical assistance.
138: if he does bottle it, how will he ever face the Commons again? The Tories will have a field day with him: “Chick, chick, chick, chick, chicken, lay a little egg for me” they will chorus when he enters the Chamber; every time he stands up it will be a chorus of “cluck, cluck”; Tory MPs waving their arms about “birdie dance”-style.
He hates the Commons anyway; he’d be a broken man if he bottles out of this one now.
136. I wonder how much prominence the BBC will give that piece of news. Very awkward to fit into their weltanshauung…
147:
Now, now. Don’t indulge in that knee-jerk rubbishing of defectors Mr Nick Palmer is always chastising us for.
148- no worries Bob on that one- he has decided- he is planning now simply on how best to spoil the little Tory stag week in Blackpool
143: He could say that, but it wouldn’t satisfy the Tory press in the least. Bear in mind that Gordon’s problem isn’t so much what voters think of the referendum issue - they want one if asked, but don’t particularly care - as the damage the papers (especially the Murdoch papers) will do to him if they don’t get their way. In particular the risk is that as well as criticising him over the treaty - which he can live with - they’ll attack him over things that the voters do actually care about, like his management of the economy.
As other posters have said, we’re starting to see signs that this could be happening:
http://tinyurl.com/2y6aug
” 148- no worries Bob on that one- he has decided- he is planning now simply on how best to spoil the little Tory stag week in Blackpool ”
…and that will backfire nicely for the Conservatives thank you very much. He’s all spin and no sustance. We all know it and the public are starting to wonder what he’s playing at.
The games up.
Matt.
150-Robusticus- I just cannot see how people who love politics change political allegiances, a bit like religious faiths, or footie. I am stuck as a leftie, an aetheist and a man city fan- always have been, always will be- through thick and thin.
133
Does that mean that Buckingham now has its first, ‘Labour MP’ since errr Robert Maxwell?
Now that Cameron is, ‘lurching’ back to the right, is the baseball cap in the post?
152 It was just a thought, although only to be contemplated if GB suddenly decides EU Constitution is a genuine issue of national concern, rather than a genuine issue of Murdoch concern. Will GE votes be determined by EU Constitution? I don’t think so. And before SeanT goes into meltdown (again) all the evidence of previous elections (remember “x many days to save the pound”?) suggests that it doesn’t really matter when the big X calls