What more evidence does Brown need?
September 29th, 2007
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Two polls give Labour doubt digit leads
Back in May and June I was among a number of commentators who were saying that we would really have to wait until November before we would get a clear view of how the new leadership at Number 10 had changed the political environment. Well it is looking as though that November suggestion might be when the general election itself takes place.
The polls have moved so firmly and decisively in Labour’s favour that it’s become very hard to see how Brown can pass this opportunity by.
On the one hand he doesn’t want to be remembered for a 127 day premiership if it all went wrong - on the other if he doesn’t go and eventually things get tighter he’ll be blamed for not taking the chance when Labour had double digit polling leads.
Populus is a conventional pollster that uses the telephone, has past vote weighting to ensure a politically representative sample and adjusts its figures in line with the certainty that respondents say they have about voting. Theoretically anybody in Britain with a land line at home can be asked to participate in the firm’s surveys.
Meanwhile the latest from the YouGov polling panel, which on Tuesday gave Labour an 11% lead, has produced a similar margin in the Telegraph this morning. Its figures with comparisons on the last survey are - CON 32%(-1): LAB 43%(-1): LD 15%(+2). The firm does not poll amongst the public at large but restricts its surveys to members of its “polling panel” on whom it has a mass of data including responses about what they did at the last election .
So where are we? Is it all now very certain that we are only weeks away from a general election? Will Brown want to wait until he’s seen what the Tories do at Blackpool?
I was very struck by this comment on last night’s thread by the Observer writer, Nick Cohen - “My colleagues think that if Brown backs off after marching his men to the top off the hill the commentariat will turn on him. The press will be full of attacks on his weakness and dithering and he’ll get a taste of what life was like for John Major. For what it’s worth my view is that Labour has allowed the speculation to run for so long they’ve trapped themselves. If Cameron has a good conference and the polls change, suddenly it will be Labour which doesn’t know what to do.”
The latest on the Betfair election date market is that 2007 is now the 0.9-1 favourite. I’ve been betting on the Spreadfair “Gordon Weeks” market and took a “sell” position last Saturday in the expectation of cashing in during the week as prices moved during Labour’s conference. I’ve got £42 a week on at an average of 74.5 weeks.
Mike Smithson
MessageSpace Advertising
It’s a sign of the extent to which the Telegraph have distanced themselves from the Tory Party that they should commission a poll immediately after the Labour Conference.
I am involved in every market except the ‘Leader’ market on betfair.Overnight I took 2.28 on a 2007 GE.The last traded price was 2.3 !
So things are not that clear cut,Mike.My main focus is on the ‘Most Seats’ and the ‘Overall Majority’ markets and it is on the latter I have gone badly wrong.Whereas I am healthy green on the ‘Election Date’and have laid odds-on the Conservatives in the ‘Most Seats’ I have laid 7-5 a Labour Overall over NO Overall which is not pretty.
I am trying to find a working relationship between a 2007 election and a LAB Overall,because if GB doesn’t take the gamble then ‘NO’ will shorten dramatically.
A key to all this is the seats won by the minor parties.At current estimates they should get 80 seats.
Things are following very closely the scenario that I, (coldstone) sketched weeks ago, there is however, one fly in the ointment.
Martin Kettle in today’s Guardian is against an early election because he thinks it is, ‘wrong’ this is an argument which could find favour with Brown. Brown being a moralist, could be persuaded not to go, because it would appear vain, Calvinism could therefore save the Tories from slaughter.
How the Daily Mash sees it, even a Tory could allow themselves a wry smile at this.
http://tinyurl.com/2wh7ep
I think Brown will have to wait and see how Cameron performs this week - even if he does not play a blinder I still think a cold November poll unlikely
SeanT - from last night, sorry I didn’t respond - crashed out early. For people wanting more Burma “news” - a place where politics is rather more life and death than who is up and who is down a few polling points - try:
http://www.newsdeskspecial.co.uk/burma/
and
http://english.dvb.no/index.php
and
http://www.mizzima.com/index.htm
and
http://www.burmanet.org/news/
Health warning: they are possibly all recycling much of the same information/gossip/speculation, since sources for hard news from Burma were largely closed down for a while. So probably no coup, although specific stories persist about particular units refusing to shoot both monks and civilians. And there is some possible corroboration for the story of military supremo Than Shwe’s family bailing out to Vientiane, Laos.
Meanwhile …. Andrew Grice and Colin Brown of the “Independent” speculate that Brown will never have a better chance of winning a general election :
http://news.independent.co.uk/uk/politics/article3010195.ece
Meanwhile II …. John Cutice in the “Independent” says that Brown needs to be cautious about an early poll :
http://news.independent.co.uk/uk/politics/article3010208.ece
Populus is especially disappointing. But we see the move of a September dominated by Brown. Here’s what I expect: Brown’s hand is forced, Tory conference claws some back, suddenly narrative is “he jumped the gun and already it’s a close race”, Scotland punishes him for dragging them to the polls in the pitch black, the bnp stands in Lab marginals, Lab taken aback by Tory preparedness and fight, hung parliament, PLP furious, Miliband as leader
Meanwhile III …. Andrew Grice in the “Independent” reports that the Cameron project is failing because of “lack of Tory support” :
http://news.independent.co.uk/uk/politics/article3010212.ece
Tories look at the Daily Mash, but not the DT, ‘cos Heffer is going for Dave ‘n’ George big time.
http://tinyurl.com/2mahnn
4 - If i was Brown (or still on the “dark side” so to speak) that would be my one concern.
Going on the basis of post-conference “bounce” that has combined with a new-premier “honeymoon” with the opposition marginalized in the media for over a fortnight(?), strikes me as a risky basis to make the decision about weather to go for an election or not.
That said, if he waits till the end of the week or next weekend (to see the extent to which there might be any positive movement for the Conservatives) then could it not be too late… and all of this before we factor in the massive logistical problems facing a Labour election campaign and the problems thrown up by trying to have an election in November.
Still if your Brown these polls have to be tempting!
8
Still putting those mushrooms on the toast ‘eh Test.
6 - Jack, isn’t the risk that Brown gets tagged with the notion that if this is the best time to go, then it is the only time for him to go - because things on the economy can only get worse. And in particular, where blame for the deterioration attaches to Brown. The debate moves from what Brown wants to showcase - what he has achieved - to the dark, scary, unknown (and politically unmanageable) sentiment issue of where the economy is going. Another unsettling event in the financial markets during the campaign and he could be reading the sign “Welcome to World of Pain - population: You”
Meanwhile IV …. Anthony King in the “Telegraph” says that the latest polls show not “a ray of sunshine for the Tories” :
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2007/09/29/npoll329.xml
Meanwhile V …. Charles Moore in the “Telegraph” says that the Tories must focus on “healing society” in order to re-connect with voters :
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/opinion/main.jhtml?xml=/opinion/2007/09/29/do2901.xml
Meanwhile VI …. Hannah Fletcher in the “Times” reports from the ultra three way marginal of Watford and finds the winner to be ……. “apathy” :
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article2554370.ece
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Nobody is going to go to the polling stations in the winter, when it is half-term, or the bloody trick-or-treating hoodies are around !!
It will cold, pissing down with rain, with gale force winds, oh, and much colder than last year. The whole idea is ridiculous, and smacks of the bottom of the barrel being scraped. It will make Brown look sad, needy and lacking in the courage of his convictions if he can’t wait until the spring.
Look in yesterday’s Guardian before putting a bet on - what looks a possibility in the febrile atmosphere of speculation becomes a COMPLETE NON-STARTER once you have actually looked at the logistical difficulties, which seem insurmountable to my eyes.
This is just more bollocks from Brown to flush out some policies from Camp Cameron, to give him some meat to attack. Save your money !!
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Meanwhile VII …. Janice Turner in the “Times” on why women love GB …. a “real man” !! :
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/columnists/janice_turner/article2554359.ece
16 - Further suggestion that if there’s a November election it’ll make 2001 look like a high turnout!
Meanwhile VIII …. Matthew Parris in the “Times” say the punters shouldn’t be fooled by “sickly Mama Gordon Brown” :
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/columnists/matthew_parris/article2554190.ece
Meanwhile IX …. Will Woodward in the “Gruntfutock” says it “make or break” for Cameron at Blackpool, as the Tories get jittery over an early election :
http://politics.guardian.co.uk/tory2007/story/0,,2179783,00.html
Meanwhile X …. Tim Luckhurst in the “Gruntfutock” says that Cameron the toff doesn’t come close to the “Tory of Kirkaldy” :
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/story/0,,2179827,00.html
General election posting arrangements
I’ll be putting up a fuller notice later but new arrangements for posting here are now in force. This should not affect regular contributors provided their details are the same as they have used in the past.
New posters will not be able to get onto the site instantly and will be held in moderation. Hopefully that will be cleared within a maximum of an hours or so.
Old posters using new or different names might have problems.
Meanwhile XI …. Martin Wainwright of the “Gruntfutock” reports from the Tories in Shipley - a templet for Conservatives nationwide ?? :
http://politics.guardian.co.uk/tory2007/story/0,,2179795,00.html
23 Mike. “General Election”
Smithson given the nod by our Gawd ?????? …. the influence of PB !!
Test
Up to a point, I agree with test: I can’t see future polls being as good as these, and the media story may well be ‘Cameron’s fightback’ and ‘Labour shaken as lead slides’. But I think the electorate has now made up its mind about the current Tories (’a shambles’) and David Cameron (’a lightweight’) and it’s only tribal loyalty that it keeping them above 30%. Images as strong as these can’t be changed in a few weeks, and it’s partly that which makes me keen on an early election.
There is also another factor that hasn’t been mentioned. I’ve talked to a recent Tory who’s come over, and his understanding is that the Tory machine and in particular the Ashcroft money has focused exclusively on the other parties’ marginals. I don’t think the Tories are prepared for the assault on their own marginals that we’ve been preparing over the last few months. I’d regret having mentioned it when we started doing it, but fortunately nobody took it seriously. There’s been a double Tory complacency about Brown - first that he would be hideously unpopular, and second that he was a tactician rather than a strategist.
As for Ben’s suggestion of “massive logistical problems facing a Labour election campaign” - nobody is *really* ready for an election in any party, but my impression is that the Tories are less ready and the LibDems aren’t ready at all.
As I drove back through fog and rain last night, I could not believe an election is being contemplated. It will look like sheer naked oppurtunism. The safety risk for people going to vote at night in rural and inner city areas has to be considerable. The only people who want an election are Labour activists and a bored media. I’m still confident the Tories will do well as I’ve witnessed no appitite for Brown in my Labour marginal, but I and many others could really do without campaigning through a miserable month.
re Meanwhile IV
What struck me was that Prof Anthony King despite there being ‘not a single ray of hope’ finishes
“A general election held in an atmosphere of cynicism could result in a record low turnout, large votes for the Lib Dems and the various minor parties and a Labour Commons majority that was either, despite the polls, not substantially increased or even somewhat diminished. The effect on Gordon Brown’s personal authority could be devastating.”
Obviously the Prof doesn’t see any hope for the Tories (he couldn’t, could he)but he hasn’t the conviction that the 10%/11% lead will actually be achieved.
27. Nick I’ve got to pick you up on a couple of points there. Firstly
‘Images as strong as these can’t be changed in a few weeks, and it’s partly that which makes me keen on an early election.’
I think we know they can by Brown’s new (and false) perception of the father of the nation who’s just appeared on the scene. Unimaginable just a few weeks ago.
I don’t agree with the point that we’re less ready either. A manifesto has been drafted, money is in place and in our and many seats we have posters, leaflets and a campiagn plan in place. Some seats near us don’t even have a Labour candidate yet.
Where has it gone wrong for ‘Call Me’ - did he ‘come within reach of a big clunking fist’ somewhere along the way?
What happened Tories?
28 - “As I drove back through fog and rain last night, I could not believe an election is being contemplated. It will look like sheer naked oppurtunism.”
Sadly, politics is full of people who thinks that naked opportunity is just what the public appreciates.
FWIW I think we’ll get a GE this year now, because just too much has been made of having one. But as the old saying goes, be careful what you wish for because you might just get it…
Think this is different to 1979. Labour could have gone in the Autumn of 78, but then it was dodgy, the speculation followed them holding the by elections in South Scotland, was it North Berwick and Penistone. However life in the southern and midland marginals was not the same and that was why they did not go. This time Scotland could be the preventor.
BUT the main difference was where they were in the Parliament. This one is only half through and could go to 2010. Callaghan had to go by October 1979.
By 2009 hardly anyone will worry about what happened in 2007.
ALSO commonsense says the gap today will close, 1992, 1997 and 2001 suggest this.
All he has to do is say I will legislate in the next 12 months for four year term parliaments and he is not “boxed in” to go now.
31 - keeping a low profile knowing they wouldn’t get half a look-in during the past fortnight?
A week is a long time in politics, apparently. This week will prove or disprove that notion once and for all
27
Nick, everytime you pour cold water on the polls getting better for Labour, they actually get better, is this a tactic?
17
Logistical problems! You would be amazed what people can achieve when they have to. As part of my job, I analysed weather data on a daily basis, you can have mild balmy days in November, you can have Arctic winds in May.
In the urban areas, weather will not cause too much of a problem, it could affect turn out in rural areas, well they aren’t exactly Labour strongholds are they.
33 - “By 2009 hardly anyone will worry about what happened in 2007.”
Exactly. Why risk a likely slashing of poll lead/seats for no reason when you currently have a healthy majority?
Sure, there’ll be anger within his own ranks, but that will probably subside quite quickly.
Very telling that the only group (outside the media) most wanting a GE are the Tory top brass
So what is it? An election is “naked opportunism”; no election is “bottling it”.
One thread running through a number of comments and analysis is the level of apathy and general disillusionment with all the main political parties and the political process, eg todays Times article on Watford and the recent Frank Luntz piece on Newsnight. It is evidenced in real elections by the level of support which the BNP has attracted over the past few month in byelections. At one time the BNP only appeared to prosper where there was a clear local issue with community relations. Now however the BNP appears to be getting significant support all over - Cumbria, North East, North West, Midlands, South East. Their average vote seems to be in the region of 10% and while it is true that many of places they prosper appear to be labour inclined seats ( the recent BNP hold in Epping used to be safe labour ward ) this is not exclusively so. It is also clear that they take votes from both the Tories and LDs.
Whether this disillusionment will be increased by a snap poll in November is an open question, my feeling is yes but the effect might only be minor. It is though an issue which ought to be considered when making the decision. From a purely tactical point of view I can see the attractions of going now ( Nick Palmer clearly is one of the PLP who goes with this ) but from a longer term perspective I think it would be damaging to politics in general ( a point which should cross party lines we all want as many people to take part as possible ) and there is a significant risk that GB could end up as a lame duck when there is not a lot to be gained by rushing. Outside of the group at No 10 it is difficult to find many enthusiasts for an early election ( Tony Lloyd chair of the PLP had a comment is free piece yesterday against going early ). Beside PBC’s own Nick Palmer I dont know of any Labour MP’s with marginal seats who favour going in November whatever upbeat comments they might make for public consumption.
37 - both
If Brown is as astute as he would like to think, all he needs to say is, “I’ve looked at the polls and they’re good. But I have a series of policies that must get through first. Therefore, I think it would be prudent of me to hang on until 2010 to get them through”.
Spin it to make him look courageous and he’s bought himself a major face saving exercise in the short term.
8. An interesting if very unlikely potential outcome there Test. Co-incidentally during the Labour leadership I backed Miliband at 20/1 to be PM on 31 Dec 2007 rather than next leader, and on the advice of PtP and others here then backed Brown heavily, so a double payout would be nice unexpected suprise.
I alluded a few nights back to a potential big value bet I thought I’d spotted if the GE is called for 2007. Unfortunately its not available at the moment but I’m hopeful it might be back up at some point. Watch this space!
I am confident our voters are more in line with what was suggested in the by-elections than what is going on in the national polls.
41. What is this confidence based upon? Do you think the samples of people in those specific areas are more representative of the national vote than the samples selected by the pollsters?
41
I see Iain Dale, is touting David Davis to be the next leader of the Tory Party. Has the leadership election already started: I think so!
http://tinyurl.com/3cwmee
Not very interesting hypothetical question. Does Gordon have the power to legislate to introduce four year parliaments?
13 Marquee Mark. Not sure. Uncertainty may work to the advantage of the government as voters turn to the devil they know rather than an opposition they neither especially care for nor find compelling in policy terms.
“So what is it? An election is “naked opportunism”; no election is “bottling it”.”
That’s right
27. It’s not just in the marginals where they have problems. According to Con Home,
“Ann Widdecombe’s retirement announcement was expected imminently. What will she do now? She’ll probably have to stand again.”
It doesn’t make the Tories’ organisation look very clever - Ann Widdecombe made clear some time ago that she intended to stand down. A-listers must be grinding their teeth.
43 - how did you possibly conclude that?
On four year parliaments - i know that gordon does not have the power to legislate to increase the length of a parliament. I presume he has the power to legislate for fixed term parliaments. But does he have the power to legislate to reduce the length of a parliament?
Not that it would be remotely likely to happen anyway.
45 - i don’t think the danger for Gordon is people switching to the Conservatives. The danger is that they will refuse to vote in an unnecessary election.
Meanwhile XII …. Douglas Fraser in the “Herald” on Brown deciding on the prospects for an Autumn election :
http://www.theherald.co.uk/politics/news/display.var.1723514.0.0.php
48
Its obvious, why else did Dale hi-lite that interview, wasn’t he Davis’s campaign organiser? Dale has broken ranks already, there’ll be more to follow.
49 alex. I don’t think our Gawd would call it a “danger”.
Turnout may be lower, but largely that’s the voters choice.
I think that Nick Cohen comment was the most astute I’ve seen. As Sean Fear has pointed out ifthe Quiet Man got a big YouGov boost,there must be a reasonable chances Cameron would match or better that. Brown coud have kept open the early Poll option without letting things be whipped all the way up this degree of frenzy
41 , Test I have to admit that I thought Brown would have to hang on with grim and solid determination until 2010, and then fight a last ditch election against a resurgent conservative party, with a popular centrist leader.
However my gut instinct might be wrong, alongside your complete and utter bloody short sighted partisanship preaching everyday.
Although I’m still suspending judgement on the polls until after all the conferences are out of the way, the Populus one legitimately worries me. However, let’s see the next couple of ICM and Populus ones after the conference season first.
51 - Dale has not broken ranks, he was highlighting the interview not for what was said but how it was interpreted. I think the problem for the Conservatives is going to be that certain elements of the media are going to wilfully misinterpret things to try to fit a narrative of the Tories heading for absolute disaster.
Hmm. Those who think that “any stick will do” to criticise their political opponents might do well to look at places where that phrase has ceased to be a metaphor.
53 - Its worth noting that for “us” (political anoraks and the westminister village) there’s a frenzy but in the country at large and amongst “normal” people?
Meanwhile XIII …. Gerri Peev in the “Scotsman” says that some Scottish Labour MP’s are urging Brown to end the hype and call an election :
http://thescotsman.scotsman.com/politics.cfm?id=1556902007
56 - The narrative the media seek to apply to the Conservative conference could be interesting, the BBC Breakfast coverage this morning must have been heartening for CCHQ, and that on the back of yesterdays news cycle that (while hardly dominated by political stories) was also more encouraging after recent weeks… I’m not sure the media wants “Tory Meltdown” and “Brown Electoral Bulldozer” as their narratives, something that was suggestive of a more competitive political environment surely?
52 - there’s not really much point in deliberately misinterpreting people’s comments is there?
58 Whatever. My point was Brown could have kept the option open more quietly so there was no minus side if he did back away
Completely agree with Nick Cohen- Brown is boxed in.
But it really does appear that the previous assumption that the Tories ratings went up with Cameron’s media exposure, is more than relevant now to Brown and Labour.
Brown bounce one- taking the leadership- and the wiping out of the Tory lead.
Brown bounce two- Brown’s media exposure with his handling of the early summer crisis
(polls then drifted back as Brown’s media exposure slipped during late summer)
Brown bounce three- the conference
Brown bounce four??-election campaign
I remember from Brown’s early polls as PM that support hardened when people associated party with leader- again replicating what was happening with Cameron previously.
It seems more than likely now that an election campaign will only harden the Labour lead. A landslide is back on the cards.
62 - I think the problem was that he tried to dangle it quietly to start with because it was a ploy to panic the party opposite. He had to ramp up the briefing to generate the levels of panic he needed, in doing that he will cause himself some damage by not calling an election. I think however he will reason that whilst he will suffer a few weeks of bad headlines if he can bash the conservatives for 6 months or more it will be irrelevant.
56
By Wednesday the Tory conference will have divided into two distinct groups, Davis/Redwood v Cameron and the Cameroons.
The stage is set, the players are in place, the drama is about to begin.
The author of the play, the late Sir James Goldsmith, his son Zac has done more damage to the Tory Party from the inside, than he ever managed from the outside. It was the Zacummer report that was the final straw for the right, the moment they realised, that the only solution was to remove DC and his band, and they don’t care how.
‘Ol Sir Jams must be looking on with a big grin on his face and saying, ‘Well done son’
61 alex. Ummmm …. no sorry, I’m not with you there ??
65 - Your in for a nasty surprise when it doesnt unfold as you predict.
Where did it all go wrong…….
If a company decides to get instant results the best way is to run a blanket TV campaign and title it “Half Price Sale!”.
…..It works wonders and sales go through the roof. You can do this several times a year and every time for the duration of the campaign business booms…….
The downside for the brand is that it loses all identity other than being cheap.
Thus it is with Cameron. He spent his first two years trying to make a big splash using garish stunts and made the Conservative brand indistinct in the process.
66 - Well it’s pretty obvious that i wasn’t referring to the “danger” being low turnout in itself, but the influence that low turnout could have on the election result. Especially when part of the decision would be based on polls assuming a reasonable turnout.
68 - Roger, we haven’t heard much comment from you on Labour cherrypicking the 2005 Tory manifesto for a short term boost in the polls.
67
I’m only here for the fun! what ever the result: I’ll be back!!
What a difference a year makes- Labour tainted by corruption and cash for honours, succession drift, plots and coups, ministerial clangers, faux pas after faux pas, Prezza shagging, with Gordon the main leadership candidate being largely viewed (gleefully) by the Tories (and many Blairites- Clarke, Milburn and Reid) as a disaster for his party. What joyful days they were for the Tories!
41. “I am confident our voters are more in line with what was suggested in the by-elections ”
I seem to recall to have read yesterday that the national projected % of the byelections showed a 6% Con lead…considering that in 2004 the national projected % of locals was a 11% Con lead, does it mean that Labour is doing better than in 2004 when they won a 66 majority the following year?
It’s impossible to say based on a week of byelections…but it was just to show that I really doubt that there’s even an agreement on what Thursday’s byelections were in line for….
69 alex. Sorry. I misread your post as implying that switchers would abstain rather than vote Conservative and accordingly the danger to Gordon is less.
The Guardian says:
“Strategists believe Mr Cameron’s pro-green message was one reason for his poll leads early in his leadership, now withered away under attack from Mr Brown.”
When unprompted, only 7% of ICM respondents in June thought that the environment should be a priority. But when prompted for a BBC poll in June, 70% of UK respondents thought that we should start to take “very major steps” to address climate immediately.
Clearly Cameron has lost the courage of his convictions on this important point. Vocal activists instinctively recoil at the thought of green taxes but I think, having run focus groups where green taxation has been discussed, that a small but significant majority are in favour of increased environmental taxation (displacing other taxes). My suspicion, untested, is that many of those who feel this way see it as a decisive issue and would change their vote.
http://tinyurl.com/32ec2x
http://tinyurl.com/3xe8hn
http://tinyurl.com/3yjaq6
[65 etc] I’m only here for fun, too, but I think it far from a foregone conclusion that Tory Conference will be a Cameronian triumph. The long-term poll trend is for a hung Parliament without even the certainty of the Tories being the largest party - Cameron’s effectively working to a “two more heaves” strategy. The only (discouraging) precedent is Kinnock in 1987. And Labour (as it then was) permitted that because it saw government as something it did now and then, not a natural right, as Tories see it.
Yes, the Labour conference bounce will wear off, but incumbents generally put on 2% or 3% during campaigns, so one might see those factors as self-cancelling.
The fixed-term parliament idea has appeal, but Brown will only introduce it as a manifesto commitment, if at all, not in this term.
71-GOM (coldstone)- may I congratulate you on tipping an autumn election- often in a minority of one on pbCOM.
and Roger- your analysis that cash for honours was piffle, that the public would see through Cameron’s PR gimmickry, and that Labour’s problem was Blair- get rid of him, and we would be back to business as usual in British politics- i.e the Tories despised and mistrusted as usual
and snowflake5- that Brown would provide strong, substantial leadership for the country in a period of uncertainty
and lastly me- I never thought the British public would hold much regard for a privileged Eton educated silver spooner, who clearly is pretty much clueless, a lightweight, and without any conviction of any kind other than the arrogance of his birthright. 14 Etonians in the shadow cabinet- an Etonian for mayor of London- what century are we living in?? Please- at the end of the day we British have a sense and feel for fair play- and packing the Tory front bench with privileged, white, male Etonians… please. Roll on David Davis.
So over my 2 years spell at pbCOM- Labour posters have been pretty much spot on- more perceptive, more analytical, a better feel for the actual state of things, gauging the mood of the British public, bla, bla. Tory posters have been clouded by wishful thinking.
But heh- going for Cameron and the Tories now is like shooting at the red cross. Still fun all the same.
If the Tory conference produces the expected bounce, I suppose the Labour lead will be cut again to the 5-6% margin…which will be even more difficult as for deciding a snap GE or not…a 6% lead is better than the 2005 GE result, but the margin of comfort is very tiny: polls can over-estimate Lab by 2%, you can easily lose 2% in a campaign, etch…so you wouldn’t be sure, it would be a bit of gamble…
The fluctuation in the Populus poll from last time does indeed suggest Brown’s risk would be significant, what goes up must come down etc.
I genuinely see Cameron as Prime Minister before Christmas if a poll is called!
The thought of an election in the English November is ridiculous. Christmas will already be all over the shops - who thinks that working people will cut short their early Christmas shopping to make it home in time to vote for Gordon’s unnecessary election? And when a knock comes at the door will it be trick-or-treaters or a canvasser? I suppose that since there will be almost no canvassing because of the pouring rain that wont be much of a loss!
Maybe one positive that would come is that the Tories would finally convert to backing fixed-term parliaments..like every other serious democracy in the world. Mind you, Labour used to support that too, until they got their hands on power. How many things is that true of!
Tyson: yes isnt it funny that the media have utterly dropped “Cash for honours” and all the other scandals. This is part of why Gordon has has it so good.
There is a major psychological difference between, ‘Labour people’ and, ‘Tory people’ Labour people, are always amazed when they win a general election, Tory people are always amazed when they lose.
Labour adjusts to defeat,(eventually) in fact they quite often welcome it, it gives then a chance to moan about the, ‘Tories.’
Tories seeing themselves as the natural, (even rightful) party of government, find defeat, very difficult, even impossible to adjust too.
Tories still can’t accept they’ve been rejected three times, they can’t even begin to believe it could be a fourth.
**** BREAKING WIND NEWS **** BREAKING WIND NEWS **** BREAKING WIND NEWS
The breaking news is that WIND is reporting to JNN the contents of a new ARSE poll of polls that comprises ICM, Populus, YouGov, CR and MORI that gives :
Con 32.4% .. Lab 40.6% .. LibDem 16% .. Others 11%.
The PISSED Wells/Baxter Index with added SOAMES weighting shows :
Con 199 seats .. Lab 381 .. LibDem 40 .. Others 30.
Lab majority 112.
……………………..
Sources :
WIND ….. Whimsical Independent News Division.
JNN …… Jacobite News Network.
ARSE ….. Anonymous Random Selection of Electors.
PISSED … Political Intelligence Seat Selector Election Determinator
SOAMES … System Of Ameneding Measured Election Scores.
78 Andrea. That depends on the type of bounce …. if it’s of the “dead cat” variety (Sorry Nick P) then we may still see Labour leads in the range of 8% but slightly off the boil of the 10-11% of today.
There’s a MORI poll to come tonight, 8% labour lead last time (they e-mailed Mike yesterday) and I wonder if ICM have another one for the “Sunday Mirror” or possibly “Observer”. That leaves CR of the big five not to have a poll in the past few days.
Out of interest do we have polls so we can compare the current polling with November ‘04?
I doubt there were so many at the time, although I’ve found an ICM poll from the middle of the conference period then that had the headline numbers of LAB:40, CON:31. LD:21… were there any other polls we could refer to?
In retrospect I think the Tories not going for David Davis was disastrous for them. The public are yearning for maleness in these troubled times. The halycon days of the metrosexual male are over- Daniel Craig over David Beckham; George Clooney over DiCaprio; Brown over Cameron. Why Brown is pulling ahead with women.
I also think the public want conviction- and a traditional Tory agenda spearheaded by a mans mans like Davis who has the conviction of his beliefs would have presented a much more formidable challenge than Cameron and his vacuity.
The Tories- for that short period in November 2005 were dazzled by the spin of Blair and Campbell, and made potentially a disastrous choice. Oh well- am not complaining that much- but seriously another thumping Lab landslide will not be healthy for our country.
I see Guido managed to see that “in Dover there was a big double-digit percentage swing to Cameron”…not sure where he has seen the double-digit swing*, certainly not in the results…
* I assume that double digit swing is a 10%+ swing, right?
Gordon seems to be looking trim these days - looks like he’s lost about 20lbs over the last 3 months - has he been advised to do so?
I have believed that we are in for an early election since I heard about the MRSA initiative. These polls surely clinch it.
Brown’s doubt may be that they are too good. I would expect Labour to slip from this early in the campaign.
Ben 84. A full list of 2004 polls is here at Anthony Wells’s site
http://www.ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/historical-polls/voting-intention-2001-2005/
77 Ta Tyson
On pure logic I know I’m right, but there is a flaw, one that I considered, but rejected, but it has always nagged me. Brown’s Calvanist upbringing, his strong sense of morality, the wagging finger from the pulpit.
Martin Kettle, in today’s Guardian expresses that view perfectly, it could still be my undoing: we are at the tipping point.
Kettle here!
http://tinyurl.com/33dvpm
Gosh, Martin Kettle is scathing of an unnecessary early election.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/story/0,,2179831,00.html
“A 2007 election would be expedient, vain and immoral”
And a 2007 election would be by some distance the most premature in British history.
{…}
It would be an act of opportunism and no little vanity. It would elevate campaigning above governing. It would be an election driven by pollsters and partisans, not by the people or by propriety. It would be a dereliction of responsibility. It would be morally wrong.
{…}
It is all the more extraordinary that someone who is so concerned to do the right thing in public life should consider behaving in this way towards something as sacred as the election of a parliament.
I happen to agree with him, but then I would wouldn’t I? I have always been a supporter of fixed term parliaments though…
The real question though is how much of the press will also switch to this line if Gordon goes for it. The blue press may be in no mood to big up Cameron right now, but it will surely be more than happy to stir up apathy by attacking Brown on “opportunist” grounds for an unnecessary election, particularly Darth Murdoch who said only a couple of months ago that he thought a snap election would be wrong. If Brown goes ahead and the right-wing media turns on him in that way, depressing an already low turnout because of weather, then there is a rick for Labour…but even if Labour wins well there is a chance that the election could be the lowest turnout ever (beating 2001) which would damage Brown badly for the future…
77. Much as it pains me to admit it, Tyson, there is a lot of truth in what you say. I remember myself pooh-poohing the whole “big clunking fist” thingy when Blair said it. But that’s precisely what appears to have happened - Cammo and the Tories have been bludgeoned by a big clunking fist.
I always thought the Tories under-estimated Brown (or pretended they did, which is nearly as silly), but I didn’t expect Gordo to prove the very adept politician he has. His shtick works.
OK I am astonished at the number of sensible people who seem “taken in” by his cold porridge of a speech: Janice Turner in the Times, women across the country (clearly, we should never have given them the vote) - but the fact is the public seem to love it, and they seem to lap up Gordo’s dour arrogant tediousness as evidence of his being sensible.
And, to be fair, the voters give Gordo a lot of credit for running a good economy - and they are right to do that.
I also think rightwingers (including me) underestimated the extent to which all New Labour’s unpopularity attached to Blair. Once he was gone, the public breathed a sigh of relief - and returned to Labour.
I remember writing a skit at the time of Blair’s defenestration comparing his demise to the annual sacrifice of a king in primitive societies across the world - the bloody killing of the chief was a symbolic atonement by the whole community for its sins. It seems I was more accurate than I realised. That’s exactly what happened with Blair.
And yes, you are spot on about the Etonian-ness of the Tory Cabinet. There is still an element in high Tory circles, those from the very best private schools, that thinks it has a right to rule, and that the public won’t notice this narrow social background if the party makes the right noises.
I do not understand why a bright bloke like Cameron doesn’t perceive the flaw in this thinking. Getting in ludicrously wealthy toffs like Zac Goldsmith and George Osborne is a crass mistake when the leader is already a ludicrously wealthy toff. People can forgive one or two Etonians in the Cabinet, not 38.
So credit and kudos to the lefties on here who have been pointing a lot of this out: Roger, Palmer N., Redflump, even Snowflake.
HOWEVER, in all this Labour triumphalism there is one whacking great big fly in your lefty ointment.
Brown is a centre right Tory. He follows another centre right Tory. Labour’s policies are utterly indistinguishable from those of a traditional, rather authoritarian, corporatist, centre-right Tory party.
Yes there is a nod to redistribution, but the rest of the manifesto is true blue: law and order, Britishness, tests for migrants, stop and search!, ID cards, tuition fees, Britishness, self defense for homeowners, capitalism, deregulation, privatisation, reducing union power, banning stuff, no drinking, net curtains, antimacassars, cold porridge, a sharp blow with nanny’s spoon when the nation starts to fiddle with itself.
It’s ironic and remarkable. You have become the enemy you despised.
If you don’t remember the last lines from Orwell’s Animal Farm, I suggest you lefties go and read them again.
90-Grumpy- even if you are wrong which you may be- you were in a minority of one on this site, day after day speculating about an autumn poll, and now it is the betting favourite, so well done.
Seriously though I have found particularly yours and rogers comments on here very perceptive, and pretty much spot on.
Not many Tories I take seriously though- sean fear is usually insightful, as too David Herdson. Many others are simply embittered with all things Labour and cannot see straight.
Andrea.
Yes the Tory Party Conference could probably be expected to show a decent bounce but putting a figure on the extent of it is difficult. Labour are planning ‘big policy announcements’ and Burma could conceivably get a lot of coverage if the junta finally implode. A huge amount rests on DC personally and on that Wednesday speech. He has some awful underlying figures at the moment ( see YouGov) and he has to show people that they’re misjudging him.
Labour is spinning that the decision will be ‘taken’ this weekend because they don’t want to make it look as if DC’s performance will affect their decision making process. That suggests they will let it be known that it’s all systems go before DC’s speech, taking the risk of a big Tory bounce.
All in all I don’t expect a 100 seat majority for a number of reasons:
It will be harder to get Labour’s vote out if a big majority looks likely
Many Tory incumbents will have a first term advantage so it will be harder to make gains than Nick allows for
I expect DC to perform well and there may be a small backlash against an opportunistic election ( although YOUGOV shows that Opponents and supporters of an early election are evenly matched)
However, I don’t buy the argument that GB ‘has’ to win a 100 seat majority to look good. He inherited in effect a 40-5 majority, taking account of boundary changes which were in the works. A 50 plus seat majority would be an excellent outcome for a fourth GE victory. Just remember where Labour were in May 2007. To achieve a solid victory so soon after that can only be attributable to two things. The disappearance of TB and the emergence of GB.
Could the Tories do better than this? It is possible. All hangs, obviously, on the marginals. Can they win some marginals ‘against the head’, particularly in the South, as Sean Fear argues. It’s a possibility. And, of course campaigns can go wrong. Bad news can explode at the wrong time.
Calling an election now is a risk but holding off is the bigger risk. That’s why it looks as though GB will take the plunge.
By the way Tyson you should add my name to the list of those who thought an early election was always more likely than others were suggesting. I did have one wobble when the polls converged while I was in the States. Other than that I have been very consistent on this.
88 - Agreed. There seems to have been little comment on the numerous “initiatives” that Labour have announced over the last couple of the weeks. In almost every case, a closer analysis would lead one to conclude that each initiative either won’t work and/or there isn’t the slightest chance of Labour following through.
The common feature of all of them is that they appear to represent “common sense” solutions that will naturally appeal in the short term.
89 - Cheers Mike!
92 - I still don’t think ID cards will ever happen.
I wonder why theres been no detailed, public polling of the marginals? Perahps one of this weekends Sunday’s will have a detailed Marginals poll? Or possibly they are waiting for the end of the Conference season? It would certainly be interesting to see how the Clunking One is going down in the southern marginals.
92- seanT- an excellent post. Gosh- when you veer off the plebiscite and Iraq you are remarkably readable, and very funny. And the Mariella admission rather put you up a few pegs in my estimation.
I agree with you- I found Brown’s speech nauseating, many of his policies unattractive, and Straw’s rampant populism dire. Have a go hero Straw is a fantasist. And Countess Harman summing up the Lab conference in itself sums up where Labour is at.
But my inbuilt antipathy to the Tories rather blinds me to all this populist, authoritarian, corporate, capitalist New Labour stuff. Problem is once you strip all this away there isn’t much left to Labour.
A lot of Labour hubris in recent days about their lead and their leader. But the way I see it, the electorate have been offered the particulars for three houses, but have so far only had a chance to compare and contrast by properly viewing only two of them.
They have looked around Ming’s House. Not very interested in it though. General comments: “it’s in need of “sympathetic restoration (ie, knock it down and rebuild it)”, “old ladyish” “hallway smells of wee”.
They have looked around Gordon’s House.
General comments: “A decent family home”. ”It has been recently redecorated since the former owner had it; but the new interior design does look somewhat familiar (perhaps from another house we looked at and rejected a couple of years ago?)”. “Some concerns that the surveyors report might find worries over the foundations; it may possibly start to slide down hill.” “The owner was very eager to point out all the features he has installed. In fact, he’ll point out the same feature to you three or four times….” “I found it just a little bit creepy…perhaps the former owner is buried under the patio?”
They still haven’t looked at Dave’s House. It’s in an area you wouldn’t have touched with a barge-pole 10 years ago, but now it’s supposedly up and coming. The particulars were in the window a year ago and looked interesting - but it still hasn’t been finished by the builders.
General comments “looking forward to seeing the property – but worried that the running costs of buying an Eco-house might be more than I want to pay.” “I like the trees they have planted.” “The Architect was a nice enough chap - but are the builders up to the job of finishing it to our high standards?”
However, until all viewings are finished, we don’t know which one they are going to plump for. If any. And any estate agent who tells you he KNOWS which they will buy – well, they are being a typical estate agent.
alex. I replied to your 69 @ 74.
98 GIN. I’m only aware of Labour private polling in Tory held marginals. If good I expect a leak and then probably full disclosure under BPC rules. That this might put the wind up the Tories during their conference is of course pure coincidence !!
94: ‘A 50 plus seat majority would be an excellent outcome for a fourth GE victory.’
After all the hype?
For Brown to go to the country when he doesn’t have to and come back with less of a majority than Blair did last time would seem like a failure, more so with these sort of polls.
101 Marquee Mark.
…. You might have added that a former architect thought Dave’s house should have been built on a plot somewhat to the right of it’s present location.
Indeed she had a look round Gordon’s pad recently and rather liked the view !!
Ralph It wouldn’t be less than Blair. Boundary changes are part of his inheritance. The baseline is 40-5. If he bottles it now and loses later in the Parliament he’ll be a lot worse off, believe me. 50 seats plus anytime this Parliament is an excellent result for a fourth GE victory in a row.
Lets face it, pb.c is rather an incestuous world. As a result, rather like an argument with friends in the pub, we strike poses, maintain rigid attitudes and exaggerate.
It sometimes seems that losing face (and gloating rights) here is one of the main consequences of an adverse election result.
Deep down we all know that, with Labour’s centre right position, no great advances will be made, nor any great damage done, if they win.
Bloody infuriating, all the same.
Some Tory posters, are accusing Labour posters of indulging in hubris. Perhaps this is now the nemesis, for the hubris, shown by Tory posters of some months ago!
104 - I’m not sure the media would see it like that, to be honest if Brown goes in November (with all the risks that that entails) then he’ll be hoping for a three figure majority and frankly anything bellow what he has now, boundary changes or no, will be interpreted as a failure - Short of a Labour landslide, I’m not sure how Brown gets much out of a November poll, then again perhaps he has indeed “painted himself into a corner”.
100- marquee nice post.
94- Blue moon- apologies- and yes I remember you pointing to an autumn poll. And you are a fellow city fan- good news about Richards.
But grumpy/ coldstone was in- day in day out posting at about 5.30 a.mreligiously ramping an autumn poll. All credit to him
“Labour is spinning that the decision will be ‘taken’ this weekend because they don’t want to make it look as if DC’s performance will affect their decision making process. That suggests they will let it be known that it’s all systems go before DC’s speech, taking the risk of a big Tory bounce.”
No Blue Moon I think not totally. They have said the decision this weekend. But I wouldn’t mind betting that GB will want to see the whites of the Pollsters eyes on Friday first. Whatever they say, GB can then claim “I made my decision last weekend” so these figures do not make me look opportunistic for going/not going
101 - Yep. Thanks jack. My point was that there will be people who get annoyed at the calling of an election. Not enough to change their vote, but maybe enough to stay at home.
101 But I think Labour’s Pollster is not a BPC member and hence cannot be made to disclose as Populus were for the Conservatives
105- fr- you are right. There is nothing really at stake at elections other than a bit of tribalism, face saving, gloating, and name calling.
Still can be bloody infuriating, or remarkably good fun all the same.
Gord will be running scared after David Cameron’s speech will end the Brown bounce.
He speech may possibly refer to the following,but I couldn’t possibly comment,could I ??
I agree that the ID card and sinister national identity database is so appalling that this alone justifies a vote against Labour.
You know it makes sense
111 Punter. Good point. They may just disclose it anyway in a spirit of political openness and clarity.
110 alex. Agreed …. eventually.
112 - Pretty much, although I’m sure we’d here plenty of talk about “mandates” were there an election called some time soon
.
113 - indeed the ID card introduction is sinister. That’s why I couldn’t vote for any party that backed it at the last election. Now remind me what was the Tory position?
105 “fr- you are right. There is nothing really at stake at elections other than a bit of tribalism, face saving, gloating, and name calling.”
Do you really believe that? To me what is at stake is that we are walking into a surveillance society and the choice is a Labour party that actually embraces it all (World leader in CCTV camera’s, ID cards and intrusive database, DNA database for all, childrens database, 90 day detention etc, etc) and a Conservative party that is against some of it and at least sceptical of the overall march towards a police state.
To me that is not nothing.
Punter
Of course GB could say he ‘had’ taken the decision this weekend but if there’s no clear signal before DC’s speech and he bottles it afterwards no one will believe him and rightly so. And if DC’s performance on its own heads off a GE it will be an absolute triumph for him.
I think people underestimate a 50 seat majority. This would be the first time the Labour Party had ever won a fourth victory in a row in their history and it would be the best fourth election victory result since well-the 19th century? I doubt even the media could dent that. If I was GB and you offered me a 50 seat majority now no questions asked or take my chances either in November or later in the Parliament I know what I’d do.
116 But we voted for a leadership that was against ID cards; that’s democracy, policies change in light of events.
One of the chief proponents of increased detention for terrorist suspects and suspension of due process is a senior Liberal peer, providing Blair & Brown with the necessary ‘independent’ view. Your party is still happy to have him in the Lords and trot him out at Liberal Democrat functions. Fine, but then don’t lecture other parties on civil liberties.
117 - All very true, however it is also fair to argue the only real reason there could be any election in the next few weeks is a partisan desire by the governing party to take advantage of their first good polling for two years to hammer the opposition - its not as though they “need” an increased majoirty, it’s low politics of course (then again all the parties have and will at one time or another engage in this sort of thing).
Agree GB will want to see evidence of three-figure majority to go now. If he gets it, then hard to see how Labour could not be biggest party after 2011/12 GE as well, even of majority slashed/disappeared. That’s the basis if the call now - gambling on nine years in power, but risking the three that are guaranteed if he holds on to 2010
Another ten year plan
27. Interesting thought that Nick, if you look at it the other way have Labour been pumping money into Tory held seats? I think not! Why do i say this; they have had no money for the last two years!
I would like to go into your scenerio outlines deeper though as it is interesting. What if the Ashcroft money means people like you lose your seats to Tories and Tory MP’s lose their seats to Labour? A sort of magic roundabout!:lol: I don’t think there is any prospect of an autumn poll as a few subtile messages of Climbdown have been aired recently - half Scottish MP’s fear an election as reported by the BBC survey. Guardian Journalist Michael White on TV saying their is not going to be an election - I think he has good contacts in the Labour party being the Socialist house magazine! The whole election thing is unwinding and i cannot see an election campaign being run with the public service union ballot result being declared near the end of October!
I also think that Picturegate is a bigger deal as it personifies one rule for Government Ministers and another for TV shows editors etc. Think Andy Burnham has been a very silly boy and Brown should show how “resolute”
he is in giving him the boot!
Has anybody else noticed the Brown has a favourite word like John Major. Major’s favourite word was satifactory and his favourite phrase was most agreeable. Brown has a favourite word resolute and his favourite saying “No more Boom and Bust” - Blair loved that apparently!
119 - yes, I find it odd that Carlile is allowed to be an authoritarian nutter, but Ashdown was now allowed to be NI Secretary.
123. Labour still Chicken for October!
:lol: 
104: As Ben suggests is that how the media let alone the public will see it? The story almost writes itself, Gordon Brown called an election when he didn’t have to which cost the country millions of pounds to hold and got less of a majority.
If he calls an early election and he doesn’t get at least a double digit increase in his majority he’ll be seen to have made a mistake.
124. Is Shaun Woodward the second choice candidate?
On the off chance that there is a NOvember election the cjhances are that turnout will be appalling. This government has the support of barely 20% of teh electorate which is disgusting in itself, if it goes any lower we will be getting towards revolution levels.
38 - My prediction, along with jgc here, is that the BNP and associated groups would benefit most from a sudden election. They appear to have got their act together in getting candidates in the most unlikely places and they are the perfect unnecessary election weapon for the voters left (who will tend to be the most passionate). Unlike jgc I think the effect in some areas could be major and we could be looking at a small BNP representation in parliament.
Bizarrely the pressure has now been all put onto Brown and it needn’t have been like this, Cameron is seen as being expected to fail now so anything else he does is a bonus. If Brown marches back down the hill, however, owing to Cameron having a good conference then he looks very weak.
On ID cards my predicament is simple, I will fight them by any means possible and that could reach to being put in jail, any party that wants to introduce them is therefore telling me that I should be put away. How could I be charitable to those sort of people?
Lst’s try that again -
“On the off chance that there is a November election the chances are that turnout will be appalling. This government has the support of barely 20% of the electorate which is disgusting in itself, if it goes any lower we will be getting towards revolution levels.”
It would not surprise me if we see Nick Griffin in Downing Street this week as Brown’s speacial adviser on Immigration!!!
By the way, where was my invitation to be part of the citizen’s jury on education being h