Will the Tories be able to stop the seepage?
September 29th, 2007
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Two new polls show big Tory deficits
Above are two of the front pages from the Sunday papers at the start of what could be a historic week in British politics. Is Gord going to take the plunge? Can the Tories turn their desperate polling position round?
The main Ipsos-Mori poll for the month is out and in the Observer. This shows the following shares with comparisons on the last Mori survey a week and a half ago - CON 34%(nc): LAB 41%(-1): LD 16%(+2). So an 8% Tory deficit has become a 7% one - not really much significance in that. The Lib Dems, however, will be delighted with their two point rise.
Another poll is from BPIX in the Mail on Sunday and shows a very different picture for the Lib Dems. These are the figures CON 34%: LAB 41%: LD 12%. This is the first survey from the firm since September last year when it was showing a 10% Tory lead. How things have changed.
BPIX is not a member of the British Polling Council and does not have to follow its transparency code. Until it gets it act together and operates like a proper pollster then it’s not worth attaching much credence to its numbers. For well over a year its website has simply stated that the site “is under construction”. It is known that it uses the internet and YouGov carries out its fieldwork.
So there we are. Will Brown go or won’t he? Will the Tories get a poll boost this week or will they still be in the doldrums. Has Cameron set the right tone with his challenge featured in the Sunday Times extract above?
Who knows and my gambling strategy is always to take profits where I can? So I’ve just cashed in part of the profits on my “Gordon weeks” spread bet. Nice to see £790 going into my account and I’ve reduced my exposure if Brown decides to wait. I’ve still got a further biggish bet on that market as well as a buy position on Labour seats.
Mike Smithson
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Con Win!!!!
Yes 1st comment in the most historic week for British politics since 1832!!!!!!!!
1. Brown WILL call an election, but not this week.
2. Tories WILL get some sort of conference bounce. Probably taking them into the mid 30’s and Labout down to the high 30’s.
3. Tories WILL close the gap further through a campaign.
4. Labour WILL be re-elected…
5. But Labour’s majority will be LESS than in 2005.
How much less? I have no idea!
Thats my predictions, anyway.
Getting the blues from Brown’s conference spin
Iain Macwhirter on Labour unity
http://tinyurl.com/22u4cf
a rather caustic piece on Labour’s Conference in the Sunday Herald.
4 - Marcia - do you think SNP will really gain that many off Labour in the forthcoming GE.
I think Ochil only - but then I dont like SNP!!!
go away for 2 days and you can’t catch up at the moment. It would seem from Mike’s comments that the GE is now a fait accompli. Anyone know the bus times to Beachy Head!
So the 2009 May election is off then?
6. When all of his adoring public line up in their millions to give The Clunking One his mandate, it’ll be a bit like turkeys voting for Christmas!
7 Unless Lab 324 seats + LD 2 seats hung Parliament!
As soon as the Conservative Party gets one or two good headlines from their conference, all the media will instantaneously forget its hysterical frenzy about an imminent general election.
In the political sense, I am not old enough to remember the autumn of 1978, but in 10 or 20 years time people will not be looking back nostalgically at 2007 as the time when “people” were expecting an election.
The last chance for GB to bottle it in some sort of good order is before DC’s speech. If he ducks out afterwards it will be a huge boost to the Tories and to DC in particular. It can’t be entirely ruled out but it does look pretty unlikely.
DC obviously thinks he’ll go for it or he wouldn’t have re-issued the election challenge in the Sunday Times. This makes it mildly easier for GB to justify calling a GE if he finally does so.
10 - and given that the ultimate decision comes down to one man alone - The Great Procrastinator - I don’t think anyone should be counting any chickens.
We’ll count them when the last date for calling a November election has come and gone without an announcement - and we will count “one chicken”, Mr Gordon Brown.
2037 - Ah the nostalgia!
3 Oct 07 - gordon calls it
9 Nov 07 - davo and his lovely young wife moves into No 10!
5 I don’t know but Dundee West is a possibility - but you are basing your prediction on 2005 figures when it was a poor result for us except here in Dundee. The SNP did win 21 FPTP seats in May - then again, there is a different voting pattern for Holyrood and Westminster.
12 - Are you ‘Martin Day’?
13 - I do hope not…
…I’ve to be at the airport for 6am on Friday 9th. I’ll have to be tucked up in bed when the polls close. I want to be posting on here, and baiting the likes of Roger and RedFlump over the lack of a Labour landslide, and possibly the lack of any Labour majority whatsoever.
If you go at all Gordon, go on 1st November. Please…
14 - think Dundee W will stay lab due to gordon’s local appeal.
The generally perceived SNP ‘threat’ to Lab at the GE is much overstated as you clearly appreciate. I think gordon knows this.
16 - thats why I want a GE in Oct/Nov and not in March - as I am away in March.
Oct/Nov GE - 4 weeks of advising Tyson and Roger of Con victory.
PS welcome back Tyson
I was planning a trip to Venice at the beginning of November so I wish he’d make up his mind one way or the other so that I can book it or not.
17 ‘think Dundee W will stay lab due to gordon’s local appeal’
He is a Fifer from Kirkcaldy! Not local to us - our local Labour council very unpopular ar the moment and will cost them votes if a poll is held in a few weeks.
I disagree there is a bigger, not smaller threat from the SNP. Labour, in Scotland are struggling and the new leader, Wendy Alexander has made no difference. There is not ‘love in’ with Gordon in Scotland just because he’s Scottish.
20 - but they will vote Lab as they realise David C is leading the Cons to victory (but not necessarily in Dundee)
Re 6, Chris A “go away for 2 days and you can’t catch up at the moment. It would seem from Mike’s comments that the GE is now a fait accompli. Anyone know the bus times to Beachy Head!
by Chris A”
No, but if you and Peter the Punter hook up, and catch a train to my nearest station, I’ll give you a lift after a few beers
(Well, obviously I won’t be drinking)
re 23. Quite right wouldn’t want to be involved in a fatal accident en route
BTW, I expect the Conservative polling position to improve during the course of next week. To that extent Johny looney is right.
What is more, now that Cameron has thrown down the gauntlet for the second time, Gordon will look a bit lame if he bottles it.
Re 24, Chris A , Yes
I see the BPIX poll was Thursday-Saturday, roughly overlapping with the Yougov poll (Wed-Fri). Also from the MoS on Cameron:
“… his fightback was upset by former Chancellor Lord Lawson who is to use a fringe meeting at the Party’s gathering in Blackpool to attack Mr Cameron’s “mad” obsession with climate change and demanding tougher laws on carbon emissions than any other nation.
Friends of Lady Thatcher revealed that she criticised Mr Cameron’s “unprincipled and wrong” attack on grammar schools earlier this year.
She spoke out at a Conservative Way Forward group dinner at London’s Chancery Court Hotel on June 9, shortly after the grammar school row erupted. “
I’m disgusted at the dumb masses in the last QuestionTime, applauding Nick Clegg’s weaseling over the Referendum issue. If people really are this thick it’s no wonder Gordon Brown can cash in on Northern Rock and get high ratings on ‘economic management’… This coming campaign will not just be about who leads the country, it must also be a fight against this dangerous growth of ignorance - if the people of this country do not change soon there is very little even the best intentioned politicians will be able to do.
21 - but the SNP need big swings from labour in all target seats except Ochil and with the Scottish voters focussed on cameron, they will on the whole stick with Lab.
with the Con clearing out the LDs in the rural areas.
27. God, Lawson is a nutcase.
30. I should probably make clear that I was not addressing Nick Palmer as God.
“I’ll have to be tucked up in bed when the polls close. I want to be posting on here, and baiting the likes of Roger and RedFlump over the lack of a Labour landslide, and possibly the lack of any Labour majority whatsoever.”
That scenario sounds absolutely delicious!
28 - reading between the lines, is what you really mean this: if the public don’t learn to vote Tory I am going to stamp my feet.
25 - Benedict, Cameron “throwing down the gauntlet” means nothing. Cameron is not the master of the situation, he does not set the tone, indeed nothing could be further from the truth. If Brown ends up looking a bottler, it won’t be because rosy-cheeked Cameron and Osborne stuck their pet lips out and made a fuss. It’ll be because the public were expecting something they didn’t get which Labour appeared to be promising.
27.Nick, Lord Lawson, Tebbit and Mrs Thatcher show dissent in the ranks, next we will hear Tony Benn start to complain about the present day Labour party.
Re: the Constitution
If Tories really want to label Lib Dems and Labour fascists they should go after Nick Clegg and his sordid alliance with the xenophobes of UKIP and the BNP against reason and moderation - the 60% of us, right, left or center, who simply want a say on a major constitutional change.
34 But what matters is the dominant media narrative. If that becomes “Tory splits” then whatever Cameron says gets overshadowed and GB will surely go for it
11. If Brown does not call an election in 2007, he won’t be “bottling it”; he will be merely “getting on with the job”. If he were to make a specific announcement that he won’t call an election, then he would be “panicking” or “responding to pressure”, but there is no need for him to make any announcement at all. He will just get on with his daily bourgeois scheming in the usual way, and in a few weeks time most people will have forgotten the fuss.
Surely there must be every chance of no GE this year.
A few weeks ago when this talk all started it was suggested it would be Oct 18 or Oct 25 with Brown either announcing it in his Conference speech or just before the Conservative Conference.
Now the media are saying Nov 1 or Nov 8.
But if Brown wanted an Autumn election surely it had to be Oct before the clock go back. Sunset on Nov 1 is at 4.35pm. So it will literally be pitched dark at 5.00pm.
So a Nov 1 election would mean 5 hours of voting in the pitched dark - sure to mean a very low turnout which is bad for Labour. That is on top of an electoral register which will be almost 12 months out of date - also bad for Labour (as young people who are more likely to vote Labour are more mobile).
A Nov election just does not stack up. Unless Brown calls an election by this Tuesday for Oct 25 I just can’t see it happening.
re 37 and I’ll be spending my winnings
37. I suspect you’re right. I think politicians might often feel a general pressure due to the media narrative that isn’t present in the country at large. If the General Election isn’t now then there would be a couple weeks of Tory claims of bottling it and then it would be forgotten.
27 Nick Palmer MP, I thought I might give you another snippet from the Mail to match yours, but this one is about really important things that dangerously authoritarian governments do, not about silly political point scoring. What a shame backbench Labour MPs have no sense of right and wrong anymore.
“Officials from the top of Government to lowly council officers will be given unprecedented powers to access details of every phone call in Britain under laws coming into force tomorrow.
The new rules compel phone companies to retain information, however private, about all landline and mobile calls, and make them available to some 795 public bodies and quangos.
The move, enacted by the personal decree of Home Secretary Jacqui Smith, will give police and security services a right they have long demanded: to delve at will into the phone records of British citizens and businesses.”
Re: 38. I agree. I run a committe room for the Lib Dems on election days so I am very aware of the practical difficulty of knocking up and getting out electors afer dark, particularly if the result is thought to be a foregone conclusion.
40 I agree, you can also open a nice vintage in June 2009, it might taste better with the sun shining.
41. This is frankly scary. When the hell did the left become so neglectful of liberty. ID cards, the Children’s database, DNA on file, CCTV watching our every move in public, detention without charge, and now delving into phone records so they can establish who all our acquaintances are - without judicial warrant and accessible throughout the increasingly massive central government.
I never believed that language that sounded like such a conspiracy theory could be so factually true. It’s shameful.
Independent: Top Tory engulfs Cameron in BNP Race Row…
http://www.independent.co.uk/
the Times, is saying that in the 35 council by-elections since Brown took over, the Tories have a 9 point lead, i don’t think council elections are good for making a Westminster prediction, but an interesting statistic nonetheless.
44 TJM “When the hell did the left become so neglectful of liberty.”
Liberty suited the Labour Party when they saw it as a way to get at Thatcher, but they now see it as an unprecedented opportunity to categorise and control the electorate via minute details of their daily lives and even the essence of their being (DNA). Possibly even more importantly from a new labour perspective, there are plenty of juicy contracts for their friends in the IT industry to get their hands on and in the case of ID cards Gordon is even more chuffed because he is going to get the public to pay for them and then sell the details in the national identity register onto financial institutions for mega profits.
re 27. Isn’t Nigel Lawson related to Viscount Christopher Monckton - the former Thatcher advisor who has been leading the climate change denial movement? This must be a family thing that is catching.
Re 45, Rod, that just shows how much the Libdemograph is scraping the bottom of the barrel.
Firstly these views are not new to the Conservative or Labour party, in fact they are mainstream.
Secondly, they represent NO CHANGE in the Conservative position. The only change is what the lazy good for nothing scum that are the MSM are reporting.
Re 47, Mike, do you think that CJD could be inherited?
45 “Independent: Top Tory engulfs Cameron in BNP Race Row…
http://www.independent.co.uk/”
If you read it, I think Sayeeda Warsi makes a very valid point. There has been unlimited immigration in the UK for too long, Labour have completely lost control, either deliberately (to keep down wages and keep the business community on side) or through sheer naivety and incompetence whichever way they should be made accountable, and screaming racist for even talking about immigration is just childish.
47 Yes Mike
The Viscount’s sister, Rosa Monckton is married to Dominic Lawson , Nigel Lawson’s son
Re 50, voreas06
My take on it is here:
http://aconservatives.blogspot.com/2007/09/conservative-peer-in-bnp-row.html
Re 51, Well Paul M, if CJD can be passed on to in laws, I think we should be told!
I love the way the headlines say “Top Tory”. If she was Labour it would undoubtedly be reported as “Muslim peer”.
54 Surely if it had been Labour it would have been Gordon Brown being interviewed
55-good one..=p
44. Labour is not left anyway.
Holding elections on a Thursday is not sacrosanct.
Could be held on a Saturday or Sunday, then would not need to open polling stations at 7am and could close earlier, say 9am to 6pm. Could even get the counts done by midnight.
This would facilitate a November election.
However I expect the next election in 2009.
Holding elections on a Thursday is not sacrosanct.
Could be held on a Saturday or Sunday, then would not need to open polling stations at 7am and could close earlier, say 9am to 6pm. Could even get the counts done by midnight.
This would facilitate a November election.
However I expect the next election in 2009.
I think General Elections were held on Saturadys up to earlt 20th century
Mike @ 47. It is wrong to portray Nigel Lawson as a denialist. Maybe you should read his read his speech to the Centre For Policy Studies, An Appeal To Reason, which can be downloaded here.
The hallmark of a fanatic is,’The more the evidence proves them wrong, the more convinced they are, that they are right’ there’s a few here this morning.
After this weekends press, most of it, not exactly helpful to Cameron’s cause, Brown will have to call this week.
The evidence is overwhelming, an election would be convincingly won by Labour, something could happen to overturn the Labour applecart, but it would really have to be a, ’something’
I watched Tory representatives being interviewed on TV, their mouths said one thing, their eyes said the opposite, those were not people looking for a battle, those were people resigned to defeat. It’ll take more than a speech by DC to enthuse them.
I agree with some of the posters here , that the lad, has reduced and some of the froth has come of Gordo’s borrowed speech which actually said very little. Dull or what.
DC will be in the spotlight, he does have to give a blinder of a speech and point out all Labour’s failings and inconsistencies, the difference between promises and the reality.
If he does this I expect the parties to be within a point or two of each other post the Conference.
That’s why I never believed Gordo would go for it. I still dont think he will. He needs continued double digit poll leads , as I dont believe ghe would ever go without it.
John Major found that a majority of 20 was unmanageable, and if this were the case come the election. The Labour Party would be at the behest of the left wing. that would spell disaster.
History does have a habit of repeating itself.
27,
Ah yes. Maggie Thatcher: Friend of the grammar schools.
How many did she open? 0?
How many did she close? More than any other Education Secretary?
Versus how many does Cameron plan on closing? 0?
At the risk of sounding like a gramaphone record I must repeat that the odds of 9/4 for the conservatives to win the next general election are generous.
Even a veiled hint from David Cameron
But Mr Cameron remains defiant.
When he was asked if his party was ready for an election, which Mr Brown could call as early as November 1, he told Sky News: “You bet!”
Who am I to argue with David Cameron’s explicit instruction ?
Please - no election this year - I spent too much working time in April/May following elections - another one this year could get me in trouble in work!!!
Re. 34, indeed, his next set of Diaries will be out shortly.
I’ve just read in the TV listings that BBC Parliament will be showing the 87 GE from 9am on Friday October 5th.
37 And despite the clocks going back there will be some pretty dark times from 7 - 8 in the morning also. I have always doubted anyone’s ability or willingnes to have an election (voluntarily!) at this time of year in modern times. Even the last one (1974) was more or less forced because of the Parliamentary arithmetic. Call me a fanatic if you like GOM / Coldstone, but I am just very sceptical.
Sun Times story quotes Rallings as saying that in all council elections since GB became leader, the Tories show a 9% lead. It refers to “research” showing the national polls may not be accurate.
Certainly in our Lab-Con marginal we just don’t see Labour holding it. But if there’s an election we’ll see. And if he does call one, I am quitting PB for the duration to work it (so no ‘where’s Test’ if a poor poll comes out!).
Cameron’s problem seems to me that the media have come clsoe to writing him off. That’s the predetermined “story” of the conference. Anyone - Tebbit, Lawson, Sir Tufton Bufton - who snipes at DC from the sidelines will get disproportionate coverage. And all of this a mere three or four days before a General Election is called (probably). My own hunch is that Cameron will be pretty effective during a GE election campaign - and that the Labour lead on polling day will not be as much as the 7% - 11% range in present polls. Even so, it seems to be very likely now that Labour will be re-elected very comfortably in a few weeks time.
How depressing.
69
We will miss you test!
Certainly in our Lab-Con marginal we just don’t see Labour Holding it. But if there’s an election we’ll see?
A little bit of self doubt creeping in?
In, (very unusual for this part of the world) my Lab-Con marginal, Labour could hold. But that will have nothing to do with GB or the Government, more to do with the Labour MP and the inability of the Conservatives to pick a decent candidate.
In the next door constituency, Libdem-Con marginal, expect the Libdem to hold for pretty much the same reasons.
See even the Mail-on-Sunday is touting Nov.1 as the election date.
69. “Sun Times story quotes Rallings as saying that in all council elections since GB became leader, the Tories show a 9% lead. It refers to “research” showing the national polls may not be accurate. Certainly in our Lab-Con marginal we just don’t see Labour holding it.”
9% Con lead in national projected share of local elections is the best for Labour since 2004 (11% in 2004, 13% in 2006, 14% in 2007).
Thanks Test for confirming us Labour recovery compared to 2004, 2006 and 2007.
Andrea you miss the point, I think (no offence!) that these are since GB took over and against polls showing big Lab leads, unlike the other sets of results
Plattel has been slagging off Warsi on Marr’s show. It seems that Warsi has been a bit of a tit of herself (again), this time by doing a “Margaret Hodge” over the BNP.
Morning all :). Well, it’s good to be back although my body clock still has me somewhere in mid-Atlantic I think.
Haven’t got up to speed on UK politics yet.
Anyway, I’ve written a couple of pieces on my blog relating to my American experiences - one on betting in Las Vegas and the other on my take on the US elections. Feel free to read and all comments welcome:
http://aloadofoldstodge.blogspot.com/2007/09/reading-us-political-runes.html
http://aloadofoldstodge.blogspot.com/2007/09/losing-in-las-vegas.html
Cameron on Marr now…..a bit subdued…..
Yes the conservatives can stop the seepage and Gordon Brown will get a bloody nose if he goes for the autumn election.
The tax cutting agenda and tough on crime( the proper way) to be set out by David Cameron will give the conservatives a lead after their conference
No,I have not overdosed on prozac.
Do you want an autumn snap election? 1 Yes
48%
2 No
52%
77 “The tax cutting agenda and tough on crime( the proper way) to be set out by David Cameron”
Tax-cutting - would that be 4p off the basic rate of income tax? Thought not - just a load of rhetoric then!
Tough on crime - the birch? The cat? Shoot to kill? Short sharp shock? Or just a load of rhetoric?
“Do you want an autumn snap election? 1 Yes 48% 2 No 52%”
Meaningless - unless adjusted for likelihood to vote. 39% did not vote last time. If these 39% are large in the “No” camp, then it’s a pretty clear “Yes” among likely voters.
I don’t think these “do you want an election?” polls have any meaning whatsoever. Who exactly are these people who say they want an election? Presumably not anti-Brownites because they all think that Brown will win. Presumably not your non-partisan current Labour supporters because Labour there is no need for it.
Which only leaves your pro-Labour, give the Tories a kicking brigade. Which i can’t believe makes up nearly 50% of the population.
78
Good Morning SBS
These tax cutting proposals will gain votes,no doubt whatsoever
Mr Cameron is expected to further revive his party’s morale by promising to abolish stamp duty for first-time buyers on homes costing up to £250,000, which would mean a saving of up to £2,500 for young couples. As a result, nine out of ten would-be homeowners would not pay the levy, the Tories said yesterday.
At present the duty is not paid on a home costing £125,000 or under. Thereafter it is charged at one per cent of the entire purchase price up to £250,000 and rises on a sliding scale up to four per cent for homes costing more than £500,000.
Mr Cameron is also understood to be proposing large reductions in inheritance tax - criticised as a “tax on aspiration” by Shadow Chancellor George Osborne.
And he will announce tax breaks for couples bringing up children.
Mr Cameron will pay for the measures by increasing other taxes, notably environmental taxes, but will make it clear that the Conservatives are opposed to many of the £21billion worth of tax cuts urged in a report by former Cabinet Minister John Redwood two months ago.
SBS You have to admit that gun crime is out of control in this country and Nulabour has not been able to get to grips with it.
A minimum jail sentence of 5 years for unlawfully possessing a gun should apply with no early release.
Nulabour have failed the electorate on the economy,health service,crime,education and immigration.
Voters on the doorstep are saying”Time fo a change” and interestingly the LibDems are making headway.
Exciting time ahead !
81 - whether IHT is fair or not, calling it a “tax on aspiration” is pushing it a bit. Are you sure he didn’t call it a “tax on expiration”?
74. Platell sees undermining the Conservatives as her job.
Forget my comments at no.70, above. If Cameron performs during an election campaign as poorly as he has just done on the Andrew Marr show, then he is surely doomed. He just seems confused and defensive rather than optimistic and fresh.
Cameron on Marr….busy telling us what they are not going to do:
- parking charges in supermarket car parks
- VAT on air fuel
- personal carbon footprint
I wonder if they will conduct such policy reviews in public again….
Promising:
- hypothication of green taxes
- increases in green taxes off-set by tax cuts “for families” so widows, orphans and single parents need not apply? I’m confused, as Cameron appears to be saying ‘tax system will credit marriage’ while ‘tax credit system will not’. Ah ha - we need ‘a positive signal about marriage’. So that’s clear then…..
Wants to tax pollution but cut taxes for families.
Blaming stamp duty for lack of opportunity for first time buyers….let me be clear, prices are rising at over 9% a year and they are worried about a 1% tax…..
As the interview went on he seemed to get livelier…..
I watched Cameron as well on Andrew Marr’s show, and spent most of it wanting to get Andrew Marr to shut up to let Cameron answer a question….a poor man’s Paxman and he seemed to keep taking the interview round in circles…the first time I’ve felt this watching Marr, bring back David Frost if you ask me.
Cameron was workmanlike, clearly going all out on gravitas, which isn’t a natural strength - I think he was lacking something without the flair and optimism that has done him well before, he seemed to be avoiding his strengths today although the questioning didn’t help.
Didn’t look like a man about to take the country like storm, and neither did Cameron.
I thought Cameron on Andrew Marr’s programme looked like one of those rugby players at the World Cup as they play the national anthem before the start. He’s really pumped up ready to go and aggressive. Marr just looked like the lightweight that he is. He didn’t lay a finger on him.
“whether IHT is fair or not, calling it a “tax on aspiration” is pushing it a bit. Are you sure he didn’t call it a “tax on expiration”?”
Bravo alex!! LOL
Writing as an unaligned voter, I sense that Gordon Brown is suffering from a bad attack of hubris over an election in early November:
The polls have been all over the place over the last few months, and could lurch again.
Labour turn-out could be depressed by the short hours of daylight and possibly bad weather.
Electoral rolls would be out-of-date.
In actual votes cast in local and Parliamentary by-elections since Brown became PM, there is no evidence of widespread enthusiasm for Labour.
No wonder Dave wants an election now!
73. “you miss the point, I think (no offence!) that these are since GB took over and against polls showing big Lab leads”
my point was that the Tories had a 11% lead in 2004 locals, but Labour was ahead in the polls at that time too (not by 10%, but I don’t think Lab is 10% ahead now either, after next week Con conference it should be back to 5-6% lead)
I refuse to criticize Cameron. It sounded so shrill last week when the Tories spouted all that rubbish. All I will say is that it’s a shame he’s lost his swagger. It was what made him attractive.
82.
Very witty Alex,”tax on expiration”.
Would you care to appear at the Blackpool conference,you seem to possess more humour than Jim Davidson, and humour is lacking in politics and has been since Lord Sutch of the Monster Raving Loony Party passed away.
re 91. I agree with that Roger. Judging by this morning’s interview I think he has lost something. You call it his swagger. This morning we saw the aggression without the charm and it is the latter that is very appealing.
92 The Grim Reaper possesses more humour than Jim Davidson .
FWIW my wife watched Cameron and said “he is better looking than Brown who just looks worn out”.
Maybe that is why the Lib Dem vote got seduced away a week ago with Ming on the screen being compared with Brown and now we move into a week of comparing Cameron with Brown.
Will Brown get better looking in a year or 2’s time?
Did you think he looked like a Prime Minister in waiting Mike?
1) If Brown calls a GE, what should the Tories do in terms of targetting? Since they won’t win an overall majority in the case of a snap GE, should they throw everything to the top 30 targets trying to deprive Labour of their overall majority?
Or ignoring the remaining marginals can be counter-productive for the future
2) What do you think will happen if Brown calls for a snap GE and he doesn’t get a majority?
3) Labour is certainly doing better than 2006 and 2007 IMO and they will certainly be the biggest party…however, how firm and especially secure (does this word exist?!) is the current lead? I’m not 100% sure of it..I think it will still a bit of gamble.
In the majority of 2005 losses sitting MPs should benefit from first term incumbency, so they will be difficult to dislodge and/or they will likely outperform the national swing (Croydon Central apart). And in the Lab held seats? I think good exstensive regional polls would be very interesting…if the composition of the current Lab 38% is different from the composition of the 2005 Lab 36% there can be some surprises…Kent marginals/Hove and co are easy to lose if increased Lab lead is coming from previous no voters (probably more present in some inner cities seats and/or valley stronghold)
4) please Gordon, if you read it, don’t call it…I’m busy in October, I can’t follow it
I live in a highly marginal Labour seat, sorry New Labour seat!
We have had no communication from them since the May elections.
If nothing comes this week I think we can conclude there is not going to be an election.
If there is then we can expect to be deluged by Labour and Conservative literature. We lost count of the amount last time.
Just put it out for recycling.
91 - “It sounded so shrill last week when the Tories spouted all that rubbish.”
Last week was Bournemouth and Labour, Roger. Your confusion is understandable - the 2005 Tory Manifesto rehashed, the blue backgrounds, Jack “Death Wish ” Straw. I think you should edit your post to say “It sounded so shrill last week when Labourspouted all that rubbish……”
Good Morning Pbers …. another day in the Rugby World Cup …. for some at least, after our crushing 2 point win against Italy (Sorry Andrea) !!
BTW …. I had to smile when Marr asked about Maggies visit to No 10 and Cameron replied he been photographed with her at the statue unvieling …. yeah along with dozens of others !!
98. “I live in a highly marginal Labour seat, sorry New Labour seat!
We have had no communication from them since the May elections”
Has Labour been wiped out at local level in your area?
I suppose that in seats where Lab have been wiped out at local level (and they’re almost all marginal seats), local organization is weaker and campaign in between elections less frequent…..can Labour pay for it?
100 Did you see all the nice messages on CHome saying how honest it was for a Lib Dem like yourself to post under your own name?
Anyone know how the attendance at Labour’s conference compared to previous years? The impression was that after the Brown speech, attendance was much reduced for Tues to Thurs.
The Lib Dem conference was reported by a newspaper as being down 20%.
The Conservative conference is reported as having 8,500+ attendees which is its highest in 5 years. For a venue like Blackpool that is remarkable.
Ah, for the joy of Test, I think the Tories may gain a seat from Labour in next week’s local byelections!
It is amazing how strong Cameron appears, when he knows that his chances of avoiding an autumn election are still pretty slim unless he produces a sensational conference and whips up some real passion amongst the British voters.
http://lettersfromatory.wordpress.com/2007/09/30/it-is-now-or-never/
Well, at least there have been no defections yet. Things can only get better
Looking at Labour PPCs, in Lab held seats and/or seats with Lab MPs retiring, PPCs are not in place in Birmingham Ladywood, Burton, Stockton North, Cumberland and co, Ardrie and Shotts, South Derbyshire, Sheffield Central, Walthamstow, Hall East, Calder Valley, Nottingham South, Streatham, Selby and Ainsty (notionally Tory), Rochester & Strood (notionally Con), Lancaster and Fleetwood (new Lab held seat, not safe), Arfon (new Lab/Plaid very ultra marginal).
In some the selection process is taking place, in some no and some are crucial marginals (Calder Valley, Burton, South Derbyshire for ex)
102 Ted. Yes
….. I have corrected the shocking slur !! 
BTW …. I noted the terrible attack on the Lawsons and Viscount Monckton upthread. They may be a few sandwiches short of a picnic between them but we should cherish the peerage ….. indeed an annual stipend to such an impoverished group in society would be a most welcome new policy from Cameron’s Conservatives that would enjoy the untarnished support of Jack W and family !!
106 John O “Things can only get better.”
Defection alert ????? …. Are you singing that tune ??
109 - Humming subversively..
I think, Letters (105), that you really mean it is amazing how strong Cameron NEEDS to appear, when his whole New Conservative project is falling to pieces. So far he has not appeared strong at all. Wishful thinking on your part, perhaps.
Is that a new Tory blog? I have not seen it before now. I suggest you have a quiet word with our Benedict about how you might give it a bit of publicity……
Letters. Believe it or don’t, we WANT an election. We think Brown will lose his majority, no question. Scotland - the swing in the SE marginals - Ashcroft - other key factors I can’t discuss - outrageously good local results like Sunderland - a determined party - more local councillors - the feeling amongst us activists in my patch is Gordon doesn’t want to go but has to now and his majority is going to plummet.
We’re all ready to go here and it will be a real let down if he bottles it. We see DC in no. 10 by Christmas. The bnp will play ukip’s role at last elections but against Lab not Con.
110 John O. Labour Minister for Hersham after the election !!
Bob Worcester will be joining us at 10.30am - I’ll be opening up a new thread in a couple of minutes
Andrea asked “If Brown calls a GE, what should the Tories do in terms of targetting? Since they won’t win an overall majority in the case of a snap GE, should they throw everything to the top 30 targets trying to deprive Labour of their overall majority?”
What you say Andrea makes sense and is how the Lib Dems would approach it in the same position.
What Ashcroft said should be done in his published review of the 05 GE, is that they should target a smaller group of seats than the actual 180 (not 164) in GE05.
http://www.lordashcroft.com/pdf/GeneralElectionReport.pdf
A newspaper recently reported about 70 targets where newsletters had been delivered.
Of course if Brown goes now, the effects of this targeting will be much less than in 08 or 09 because Ashcroft’s control of all CCHQ aspects of the targets has only been in place for a few months although he has been working with them since 05.
Over the next few days, the Tory tactic will change, there is a movement to it already. The frightening vision of a, ‘one party state.’
This is really the politics of despair, there will be an attempt to play up GB’s ‘Stalinist tendencies’ of the ‘Do you want to give this man absolute power’ type attack.
What this boils down too is an admission, that the Tories can’t win, but please, please! let us at least be an effective opposition.
Strange! when Mrs T was riding the crest of a wave, after her Falklands victory, she didn’t seem at all bothered by the thought of a large majority, in fact, she sacked Francis Pym, for saying he was.
Off topic but we have not heard about any decapitation strategy by the Lib Dems against shadow cabinet Conservatives. Have the Lib Dems binned the strategy as it only had one scalp in 05? Do they now see Labour as much as the enemy as Conservatives?
Test at 113, now pull the other one.
113
Test check those mushrooms, they may be off!!
114 Only if you and Andrea jump as well. All for me, and me for all…
117 The possibility of the Tories getting a 9 or 10% swing to regain a majority was always a low probability. Therefore Cameron’s leadership has to be one of a two stage campaign, phase 1 would be either a reduction of Labour to a small majority/largest party or preferably for Tories to be largest party in a hung parliament, phase 2 would be to get an overall majority.
If polls are correct we might have failed this strategy but I believe that as Snowflake said yesterday we have polls at half time with Labour having a goal advantage. This week and the campaign will be the second half. My preferred outcome, as largest party does look out of reach, would be Labour returning for a fourth term with a much reduced majority. Sufficient to mean they could govern without the Lib Dems but severely weakening Brown. 1992 over again but with Cameron stronger than was Kinnock and able to lead us to the deserved victory in a few years.
Maybe I’m being over-optimistic but that looks very achievable. The fly in the ointment is Lib Dem performance. Despite months of bad polling they do not believe they will suffer at the polls - I think they will and that will help the Conservatives in the South. SNP will do well in Scotland and despite Labour doing well in seats in their heartlands, Brown will find he has a weak mandate and his party will question its leadership choice..
He’s not going to call an election. Nothing adds up at all.
Very funny….I read post 113 asnd thought it was written by Ted so I read it again and thought how weird it was that really sane people could at moments of crisis become delusional. (It was only on the third reading I realized it was TEST not TED!!)
Roger
121 John O. I think Andrea being a greenish lefty will find the leap more comfortable than this rather unathletic centarian !!
Will we have government limos ?? …. I rather fancy an early fifties Rolls Silver Wraith wafting through the Surrey countryside dispensing largesse to the faithful.
123. Having seen Cameron on Marr this morning I think Gordon will call it this week.
As I said a few weeks ago focus groups are good at pointing to problems but not good at supplying solutions. Those groups that told Cameron he was ‘lightweight’ next to Brown would have got it right. They probably elaborated by saying how serious Brown looked in his whie shirt and plain tie……
Cameron’s solution-to wear white shirts and sober suit-was not the right answer. White though a sober colour can make the wearer look anaemic which actually adds to the look of weakness. On Marr he would have looked more confident in a dark blue shirt without a tie. What he really needs to do is look different. He won’t beat Brown by copying him
126 - Embroided sedan chairs, carried aloft by Hersham’s bravest, finest and strongest (I’m not sure what the men will do)
Jack W - unless you’re on the other thread - hold out for a Series 3 Silver Wraith; a really nice car which had some of the Phantom’s innovations but without it’s bulkiness.
Foot and Mouth revelations are rumbling on…
I’m playing Taxman Gordon the kind Tories created..but I don’t have a joystick, so I can’t control the player…it’s nor fair. Are the tories discriminating against joystick-less people?
131 Andrea, use the arrow keys!
132. Ted, but using the arrow keys nothing move in the direction I choose…and the player goes on wherever he likes and die!
133 Works on my Apple - do you have to press a control key to get the arrows to work on your PC?
102 Andrea, no far from it, Labour is quite strong, all my ward councillors are Labour. At parliamentary level they are expected to hold, with the Lib Dem vote probably going back to 2001 proportions.
I will let you know if they deliver anything this week.
135. Thanks Dave(s).
Interesting…maybe they’re doing under the radar phone work and you have been down as a non Labour voter. Or maybe they’re really not doing anything at all.
134. Ted, I’ve lost all hopes..and the Tories my inexistent postal vote
I finally realize how to play…the player is the Green thing…I tried to move the 4 Gordons thinking it was the player…they don’t look like Gordon very much!
If there is going to be an election we would be getting something from their regional distribution centre. Most comes from that source, every other day during the last campaign.
If there is going to be an election we would be getting something from their regional distribution centre. Most comes from that source, every other day during the last campaign.
PS I AM ONE OF THE VOTERS THEY TARGET,A NON CONSERVATIVE
138. so in your opinion they are not ready or in a GE stand by for a GE in your patch?
As soon as Brown calls an election, the West Lothian Question will immediately come to surface, Labour activists have already been slammed by voters that their party is anti-English but they do nothing about it and us voters know it. Cameron will play the English card via ‘English Votes on English Matters’ and this resonates with the English electorate along with immigration, NHS funding bias in favour of Scotland/Wales, EU constitution, pensions, etc, etc., the election will then become too close to call. Many voters I have come across do not trust Gordon Brown one bit, and want to see David Cameron do more. If the SNP do well in Scotland (remember Alex Salmond is popular) Labour could effectively be 5-10 seats lower there, UKIP voters are returning to the Tories so too are many BNP voters and sadly some English nationalists.
I expect Labour to win the most number of seats this time but they will need the Lib Dems to prop them up in government. This next parliament sounds like a repeat of of the 1974-79 government, only the election after this one coming will Labour will be hit harder by the loss of Scotland through independence and it will be their own fault because they delivered devolution that according to former West Lothian MP will be the ‘motorway to independence’. You reap what you sow.
140. IT SIMPLY INDICATES TO ME, THAT UP TO THE TIME OF WRITING, THERE DOES NOT SEEM TO BE ANY GENERAL ELECTION BEING PLANNED FOR THIS YEAR.
128 John O.