How do you square these two responses?
September 30th, 2007
Do people switch during polling interviews?
I am grateful to Anthony Wells of UK Polling Report for picking up this oddity in the Ipsos-Mori poll. As can be seen two questions were asked - “How would you vote if there were a General Election tomorrow?” and a second “And how would you vote if there were a General Election held later this Autumn?”
For the former the widely reported headline figures had a 7% Labour lead. For the latter the margin drops to 5%.
On the face of it you would have thought that the same respondents would have produced the same answer to each question. Surely you don’t think - “well I’m Labour at the moment but in a few weeks I’ll be Tory”?
It would have been good to get a response from Bob Worcester when he was doing the Q&A session on the site here this morning.
This has got me thinking about those polling questions we had while Blair (remember him?) was still PM. People were asked how they would vote if there was an election tomorrow and then they were asked what they would do if Brown and Cameron were the leaders. In virtually every survey the Tories did better on the second question.
The view taken by me, amongst others, was that there was something about Brown that was turning off voters. Judging by these Mori responses it maybe that some people move to the Tories in the course of interviews.
Anthony notes, however, that “A week or two ago we were told that Labour’s private polling showed them 7 or 8 points ahead, but asked how people would vote in an autumn election it shot up to a 14 point lead”. This seems to be the opposite effect - except we don’t know with private polls what the questions were and the order that they were put.
Odd.
Mike Smithson
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Projection - if its happening we will find out next week!
Might be a rounding error.
I can’t understand why you’d ask both questions in the first place. Any chance of emailing Sir Bob? We should get an answer in the morning.
Is the certain to vote number, 602, the same for now and later this autumn?
It’s a very small change, and I’d have thought that those who change their mind mid-interview lie among the 40% who don’t vote these dayss. Or perhaps they are just nice and want to give everybody a chance. Ask them who they’d vote for next spring and the mystery 1% goes to the LDs.
It’s caused by a Mr Norbet Scroggins of Slough who bet the house on an Autumn election and will be mightily pissed off with our Gawd if it doesn’t take place !
Maybe its one or two who will be out of the country?
Its an old polling technique to ask the same question under a different guise to try to tease out the frivolous or downright liars.
… but then again the frivolous still vote (though not as often as they used to).
Mike - it doesn’t really surprise me at all. I have been quizzed by any number of pollsters (non-political), usually on goods or services where I have no knowledge or interest whatsoever and I have sometimes felt obliged to answer differently what appear to be identical questions if only to impress the questioner in having detected the miniscule distinction and/or to relieve his/her and my boredom.
Whenever i’m doing a survey the moment they ask a question for the second time is the moment i decide i’m wasting my time and give up.
What I think is more interesting is the modest 5% labour lead shown in the 2nd table. With the Tories yet to reap the benefits of their own conference and the understated Tory support reported by pollsters (despite Bob Worcester’s claim to the contrary), suddenly a 2007 GE looks much closer than just 3-4 days ago after the Dour One’s speech.
Brown would have no problem in explaining his decision - he’d just wear a virtuous expression and blame it on F&M - and everyone would think, yes, he did the right thing. See it’s easy!
Hmm, quite bizarre, just goes to show how polling questions can misled I suppose.
On the possibility of a general election, I still hold with the impossible but inevitable argument.
As one who would like the system to start fracturing even further, in order for something better to take its place, Brown having an election now is perfect.
I get a chance to rip the guy apart for his lack of moral compass, the whole system starts to go belly up because of fraud and disenfranchisement, we have a government elected by a derisory percentage of the electorate and the whole thing is wrapped up in the wholesale corruption so ably explained by Simon Jenkins in today’s S Times.
Go on Gordon, you can be forever known as the man who reshaped British democracy, you wouldn’t like what happens to it but it would be forever in your name.
misled = mislead
11 Oh yes if GB wanted to back away he’d find a good reason. Perhaps talks on some foreign crisis or other BTW Why has my reply to Tressage been eaten. Is the new censorship system taking effect
O/T Ukraine votes today in key Parliamentary elections and the polls close at 19.00 GMT with exit polls immediately being published. First and only time I’ll be supporting the Orange ones winning there, and as for that Ms. Yulia Tymoshenko, she can be my chick-in-Kiev any time.
11 See from the Independent that the production of a vaccine for Bluetongue has been held up because Meriel are not allowed to undertake any live vaccine work as they are still regarded as a source of the F&M outbreak.
An outbreak most probably caused by poor infrastructure at a Government owned facility, due to lack of investment by a Government Dept. An outbreak not yet under control despite all those Cobra meetings.
Another story on the fate of those made homeless in Hull who have yet to see the promised support from the Government.
Gordon is good at crisis management isn’t he?
15 - She is rather dishy, isn’t she John? Perhaps a ‘Mange-a-trois’ would be in order?
I think it a hint/indication that the polls are not quite as good for Labour, as Labour think they are. Much volatility remains, IMO.
17 Why not let everyone join in and have a mange tout!
I notice that MORI have a ’squeeze question’ for those who are undecided or refuse to answer how they’ll vote ie ‘which party are you most inclined to support? I dare say they’re not the only pollster to do this but I would be interesting to know
a) what the results were simply for those who gave a clear answer without the squeeze question;
b) what percentage needed the squeeze question in order to get them to answer; and
c) what percentage couldn’t be induced to give any answer at all even with a squeeze question.
19 -
11 Peter from Putney “he’d just wear a virtuous expression and blame it on F&M - and everyone would think, yes, he did the right thing.”
Well yes and no, Peter I think that is exactly the analysis you will get from Nick Robinson, Andrew Marr and the rest of the BBC and the Guardian will obviously heap praise, but this is an easy one for the Tory press and the public, no amount of spinning of other causes will hide the fact that he was scared (with justification) he would become the proverbial trivial pursuit question and that comparisons will endlessly be drawn with Callaghan. The Sun for starters will claim they scared him off because he is not having a referendum and therefore saw the election as a proxy referrendum.
Unless Brown goes to the polls and wins convincingly he will look like a silly schoolboy playing politics with peoples lives, which to be fair is exactly what he is.
17 - Alastair, All Hersham rejoices at your return :). When I return from the Land of the Toblerones (checking on my accounts
next week, I’ll get in touch and we can really sort out this Great Party of Ours….
22 - The get out is easy, Brown explains that, given the state of the electoral register and because of unresolved issues over postal votes and the possibility of irregularities, there will be no election. He understands that some will be disappointed but that he feels this is the morally correct thing to do. He also understands that people will want to vote on his record and that he intends to allow for this at a later time. He announces that there will be legislation on weekend voting and, bob’s your uncle, he gains the upper hand.
Odd?
That has to be the under statement of the year!
Weird!
I wonder how things will shape up in a real election?
the first question will be identical from each poll in order to provide tracking, the second question will have been tacked on at the end in order to investigate the currently topical issue.
This sort of thing is very common, and part of survey processing will often involve eliminating internally illogical respondents (on the grounds that they are making it up!)
Just who is “sampled” for opinion polls ?
I know of no-one who has taken part,am I peculiar?
Please no defamatory comments
Income tax ‘doubled under Labour’
Wage earners are paying almost twice as much of their income to the Treasury compared to 1997, according to a City think tank. The tax burden has risen 100 per cent in 10 years, while real wages have only risen by 40 per cent, the Centre for Economic and Business Research claims. The claim comes as it is revealed the Government has taken a record £143bn in taxes in the past year. (Sunday Telegraph)
ukpaul.
He can use whatever get out he wants his reputation for ’strength’ would suffer real damage if he doesn’t go now cf Nick Cohen. If he’s going to bottle out, however, he’d be far better doing it tomorrow. Waiting until after DC’s speech really would hand DC a propaganda triumph.
It seems to me that he doesn’t have to make a statement: a very clear off the record briefing from a No 10 spokesman, ie not a Party briefer, would be enough. There’s no sign so far that that’s in the works.
11% yesterday, 7% this morning, 5% this evening. Tory landslide by end of campaign.
re 27 HPS I’ve taken part in several YouGov polls. Why not sign up with them?
Oh and with petrol (well diesel almost certainly) about to leap past the £1/litre barrier tonight we’re bound to get RedFlump on here trying to convince us that inflation is 2% again soon. Perhaps Gordon will next take that out of the index like Council Tax and mortgage payments.
£6k gone on Betfair in the last few hours - now 2007 is 8/13. Does anyone know anything?
ps Why would BBC start its report on conference with a clip from the platform soundcheck ? Surely not intending to ridicule the conference before it started.
16 - there are large areas of this city in which homes have caravans in the front garden in which the occupants must still live thanks to the floods. It’s not a pretty sight.
My view is that people *have* been impressed by Brown over the last couple of months, and the polls reflect this, but they are still reserving a lot of judgement. Labours current lead is a soft lead.
Remember, most voters are still undecided. Labours lead is nowhere near as “hard” as it was in 1997/2001, for the simple fact that voters then were totally decided; now they are not.
I’m not going to pretend the Tories could win, but it’s entirely conceivable that with a good, high-profile, well-managed, intense Conservative campaign, the final result could be something like 37:37:18 Con/Lab/LibDem - with seat numbers something like 240/334/46 and a derisory Labour majority of 18, perhaps lower.
Brown has been a little too clever. By trying to unnerve the Tories with election speculation he has now backed himself into a corner, where the media are constantly demanding him to announce the date and the opposition parties ready to call his bluff.
In fact, perversely enough, he’s the one who risks being forced into an election at a time not of his choosing. If he doesn’t go, he’ll look weak and cowardly, if he does, it could make his position much weaker than it currently is and greatly restrict his room for manoeuvre in the next parliament.
Tough choice.
Chris A. I wasn’t believed when I made the point about £1 a litre. One garage I passed yesterday was selling unleaded for 96.9 a litre. Add on the 2p a litre duty increase tomorrow and you’re up to 98.9p. So £1 is very close, if not at all pumps, at least at some. I can’t believe that the £1 moment wouldn’t be a news story which could be seized on by the Tories.
31 - surely not people at the top of the Govt breaking the new laws brought in by the Gambling Act already?
Saw Hague on tv today and he made a very impressive speech. Also in a tv interview he came across very well.
Much better than his opposite number at the FO David Milliband last week.
Council tax has never been in any standard measure of inflation (ten seconds thought will tell you why it can’t be)
Mortgage payments are in the “inflation figures”, just not the ones used to judge the BOE.
Anyway the idea of a single inflation figure applied uniformly is ridiculous, is is an average no more no less. Some people currently have personal inflation rates that are negative (childless young people with high durable goods and clothing expenditure and low services expenditure). My personal inflation rate is about 8%, the ONS website has a little tool to let you calculate yours.
http://www.statistics.gov.uk/pic/
34. Agreed. And I’d go further. I still think an early election could see Labour end up as the largest party, but without a majority. Thats *THE* nightmare scenario for Brown (well, apart from losing power altogether)
And I agree about Brown backing himself into a corner. I can’t see how he can pull out of an election now, without losing credibility
I read today (S. Times ?) that Brown aides have been ridiculing Miliband. Gordon can’t be feeling insecure already…can he ?
Basically if Gordon goes now, when he doesnt have to and has his majority drastically reduced or eridicated his own position comes into question. If Labour end up short of a majority they will probably have to go to the country again and it would just annoy the electorate.
31. A poster on Vote-2007 is saying he has been given inside information the election will be on November 1st. No reason to asssume it is a hoax but no way to prove it either.
42 - See Peter O at post 134 on previous thread
Re 24, so the get out is that “after 10 years of a Labour Govt our electoral systems are no longer able to cope with a General election in the autumn”! :-0
Seems a vote winner for me…..
Reminds me of a 1979 S&S poster of a long queue of people and “Labour’s not Working”. This time the slogan’s changed to “Labour’s Election is not Working”.
If the Tories have bought any poster space and the election is called off they could run with these posters?
38. If you ask any Labour politician what the rate of inflation is they will tell you to a man it’s 2%. Gordon Brown repeated the lie on the Today programme last week and as usual the interviewer was lazy enough to let him get away with it. There is a perfectly good inflation measure which includes things like Council tax, viz the RPI. It’s at 4.5% and going up - it’s likely to go up further. Why do only political and economic anoraks know about it - what are the opposition parties doing?
This means that those reliant on inflation, public service workers, those on benefits are getting steadily poorer.
Labour will almost certainly finish as the largest party but will probably not have an overall maj. As a previous poster has correctly observed, the absence of 5 (or 6) SF members, the support of any remaining SDLP members means that perhaps 315 - 320 is enough. Below this and gordon is reliant on the admittedly reduced LDs (40) and has to consider whether to take into account their rather unrealistic ‘flower power’ policies and worse, PR or try to struggle on or call another election which I would expect Con to win easily.
37, 40. Miliband has had a catastrophic start as Foreign Secretary. He’s come across as arrogant, rude, insensitive, immature, and dull. He managed to totally annoy Paxman and nearly got punched by the Sun editors in his first week. Not the kind of enemies you want.
So far he is the one big mistake of Brown’s premiership.
bremners programme on channel 4 is an excellent critique of browns rubbish govt. if it takes off will be devasting for govt. his brown impression is “spitting imageesque” in its potential to invade the public psyche
39 And I agree about Brown backing himself into a corner. I can’t see how he can pull out of an election now, without losing credibility
How about my suggestion at #11?
47 Ave it 07 loses faith in Labour wipeout !!
Tories not winning everywhere !!
50 - Jack this is based on further secret ave it polls which suggest Labour may win some seats
47 seanT. Annoying Paxman and dumping on the “Sun” seems entirely in the national interest !!
Ave it Miliband !!
Matthew Paris being treacherous on BBC, OOH Bremner in crushing form.
51 Ave it 07. The nation rejoices …. wouldn’t want a Conservative one party state would we ??
Ave it 07 What happens if GB bottles it? Will you morph into Ave it 08 as the clocks strike midnight on December 31?
If you were Gordo would you really want to risk the job you’ve desired for all your waking hours for 40+years?
He is a control freak and on the surface, an early election has too many uncontrollable variables.
However, what none of us normal folk know, is what kind of control does Brown actually have over the BBC and Sky amongst others. Based upon about 99% of their coverage of him to date, it looks as though he has them completely in his pocket - although it does seem strange that the Sun and Times have turned and Sky has not.
Will the BBC continue to act like Pravda when an election campaign is under way, or will they become unbiased, which will compared to the last 3 months, creates real advantages for Cameron
Usually at elections, a big chunk of the major poster advertisers give their space to the political parties (for no favours whatsoever of course). How many businesses does Brown have in his pocket? How much COI ad spend can be thrown against Brown’s “non partisan” policies? How many of the new civil servants now employed will have education on the perils a Tory government poses to their jobs?
There are lots of known and unknown unknowns here that make a real prediction pretty difficult
43. Thanks. Yes it’s the same and my feeling is it is correct.
I hasten to suggest as per my previous comments, that polls whilst giving and indication can be misleading. Let’s see where we are after the Conservative Conference/Gordo… griiting his tetth and either calling/not callling an election….
If he backs out of an election, Brown will suffer a week or so of bad headlines and it will be back to business as normal. From his point of view its a safer scenario than pissing his majority away in a gamble of suicidal recklessness.
54 - oooooh no i don’t mind a few non con seats. Nick can stay.
55 - I think you will find that may happen whether or not there is a GE this year!
57 In this situation, any number of preliminary meetings will be taking place, arranged by people making contingency plans for a possible GE, but who are nowhere close to the PM. Even assuming Brown has taken such a decision, do you really think he’s going to dissipate the surprise element by allowing the news to trickle out?
I don’t think so somehow.
“Even assuming Brown has taken such a decision, do you really think he’s going to dissipate the surprise element by allowing the news to trickle out?”
So what in God’s name has he been doing allowing his advisers and briefing gnomes to push the speculation with gay abandon. If he wanted any surprise at all he would have closed it down.
“For the former the widely reported headline figures had a 7% Labour lead. For the latter the margin drops to 5%.”
Depending on the way the rounding worked out, this could be one single person switching, no? Changed his mind? Alzheimers? Taking the piss? Who knows. Probably shouldn’t read too much into it…
In other news, could the swing from the UKIP to “Other” indicate a late breakthrough for the Deport People Who Phone Me During Dinner And Keep Asking Me Stupid Questions Party?
52. Jack W.
What’s curious about Miliband is that he somehow contrived to annoy the lefty media at the same time as he’s deeply irritated the right.
Check these pages from last week’s Indy:
http://tinyurl.com/yvb38b
and this one: (the link doesn’t work):
Independent, Foreign News. By Anne Penketh, Diplomatic Editor The Foreign Secretary, David Miliband, has been forced to backtrack after dropping a diplomatic clanger, notably upsetting Egypt, Nigeria and Germany, by endorsing four other countries as future permanent …
David Miliband is a d1ck. To think that Blairites were seriously proposing him as PM material. lol.
Poor judgment by DC to be talking of a “fightback”. Makes them sound like losers. (Which they are, but bad to emphasise the fact.)
62 Simple - to rattle the Tories, etc and to keep them guessing!
65. Disagree. The whole country knows that the Tories are in a weak position. Why deny it and look like liars?
They might as well turn this status to their advantage - and play to the natural human sympathy for the underdog. Also, if the country thinks Brown is waltzing to a landslide, Labour voters might relax and stay at home, while those who are uneasy at one-party rule will come out and vote against Labour.
66 - Which brings us to the conclusion that it is very probably a stunt with the PM having no intention of calling it. Incidentally if we believe the spin, the decision has been taken and Gord is either on his way to see Her Majesty this week or he is sitting at home laughing at all the money thats been wasted by punters on this site.
46 Ave It
To be honest, even 315-320 wouldn’t really be enough, as you would need to ensure a full turnout of MPs on all votes to get any legislation passed. There’s always likely to be someone sick, out of town etc. Then add in the fact that Brown would have to cater to the whims of the more idiosyncratic Labour MPs. Even if the Campaign group were down to 10 MPs, if the majority was only 10 that gives them a lot of leverage (like Teresa Gorman et al had over Major).
Suspect you would want at a majority of at least 20 to be practical.
67 - I agree that Cameron is using his position to his advantage, but then I think he knew what he was doing by disappearing for a week or so before the Labour conference.
69:
Sickness/out of town is dealt with by ‘pairing’ - or dont they do that anymore?
Hard left - noted
But if Gordon can’t get maj of 20 (335) then he might prefer to try and keep going with 320 rather than have another election in which he would probably be well beaten
Ave it 07.
First, we had the disturbing news that Labour will hold some seats. Now you’re telling us Labour will get an overall majority. Shouldn’t you change your moniker to ‘Had it 07′?
71 - I think pairing has declined somewhat. But anyway they don’t have pairing on 3 line whips.
71 - If Gordon held an election now 2 years ahead of schedule and the result was a hung parliament it would be difficult to hold another election in quick order. Whilst it would be constitutionally possible, it would not be desirable, not least from the point of view of the Labour MP’s in marginals who would almost certainly vent there wrath. So if there were an early poll and a hung Parliament, there would have to be either a minority government or coalition. From Gord’s point of view not an appealing prospect as he would have trouble getting anything done at all.
On topic: this just shows how foolish people are who regard poll figures as some kind of exact representation, and say things like “the Labour lead has gone down from x% to x-1 %”.
Any figure given is in a considerable (and actually unmeasureable) zone of uncertainty, as I have said several times before on this site and to clients … and I speak as an ex-pollster!
We always had some apparently irrational responses.
I remember one survey of people who had used police services: the following sequence produced:
What was the result of your visit to the police station as a result of your complaint/inquiry?
I was arrested.
How satisfied were you with this outcome?
Extremely satisfied.
We also once had a grid of members of the royal family and perceived attributes, which produced three people who thought the Queen was “vulgar”.
That could wee have been 1% of those responding ..
56. I’d also like to think Gordon was too cowardly to go, but if there’s one thing the last 3 months have told us, it’s that he’s capable of surprises and is a and unpredictable tough opponent. There’s only thing I know the Conservatives know about him; we’ll never underestimate him again!
That said, I think he still has major weaknesses. As last weeks Labour conference showed, he’s totally bereft of any new ideas or thinking. The article SeanT links to in (64) shows this - and I’ve seen many others.
They’re STILL acting like they’re in opposition 10 years on, blaming the Tories for everything and claiming “not me ‘guv” to all the problems that have occurred on their watch. The pitifully few policy annoucements - like “clean hospitals” - mainly relate to problems they said they’d sort out years ago. It’s just empty rhetoric.
You have to ask, how much longer will people put up with this?
Maybe Gordon is the one now underestimating Cameron.
*If* Cameron could draw out this patheticness, tiredness and spin in a vigorous and professional election campaign *and* contrast it with his own energetic, creative programme for government he might, just might, deprive Labour of their majority and crush their mandate to govern with a plurality win in popular votes.
I believe he can.
I agree with Blue Moon and others - Ave it 07’s volte face has come as a sickening blow. I would go so far as to say that his erstwhile optimistic outlook has been the only thing keeping me sane in those dark bleak hours of the night.
72 I should have said ‘Ad it 07′ of course
77 Ave it 07 has obviously been taken over by the Dark Side or possibly son Ave it 22 & daughter Ave it 26 are being held hostage by Ed Gang (Balls and Miliband)
Has Mike confirmed the same pseudonym & email are being used?
Robert Waller
If you’re still around have you any thoughts on my points at post 20?
72 - I havent said Lab would get an overall maj - Im speculating what might happen IF it was marginal
73 - noted - TY
74 - and everyone else (apart from us!) would hate another election
77 - LOL
78 - LOOOOOL
78 - LOOOOOOOOOOOOL
I am glad I am the centre of attention on here! See all the Labour on here are getting worried as their poll lead disappears
For the avoidance of any doubt:
Labour 4th term = LOLOLOLOLOL
75 Enjoyed your piece on Wales on Doughty Street. May I debate a couple of points, only good naturedly of course! Re Newport yup spot with Newport East as a Lib Dem target (albeit not this year!), but surprised if so no mention of Newport West for the Tories given their good result in May and as I’m sure you saw the gentrification of the fringes. It may in addition have been reasons of space but I was highly surprised you highlighted Bridgend for the Tories as opposed to say the Gower. I guess this may have been because of course the Tories actually won Bridgend once and not the Gower. And yet the Gower has some Tory wards that were shifted from Swansea West in 83 effectively shafting them in that seat which they were with eight hundred votes of in 1983. With the development of the “Mumbles Riviera” that has been reinforced as May indicated. Certainly if Bridgend ever went Tory again (highly unlikely IMHO)then I think the Gower would certainly go Blue as well.
Cardiff passed swiftly over. Only North is competitive this time round, but given the developments in the Bay and elsewhere you can smell West and South shifting from being strongly Labour. I can’t see the tories coming close in anything except mega landslide years, but were the Lib Dems ever to get clear as challengers I think Labour could be in trouble rather more swiftly
Finally on Montgomeryshire. Thought you were a little too sanguine for Lembit. The faintest traces of the ghosts of Mr Gladstone and Rinka the dog linger there with a good Tory candidate in tow. Lembit will hold easily but from a 7,000 majority if it is not this year don’t be surprised to see a cuff round the ear for Lembit WRT his huge majority.
Welcome your views…….
*eight hundred votes of in 1979!*
Ave it 07. Your mere speculation about a Labour overall majority has led to a near nervous breakdown of Tory posters here. Please be more careful about your language in future.
84 - I think the Cons on here like myself know that we are moving ahead. However con supporters are intelligent thinking people like myself who are able to perceive alternative outcomes.
If you take the square root of a flying pig and add it to the the sum of last seven by-elections in Bourton on the Water …….
The facts are that Labour has an opinion poll lead with EVERY pollster which in a month cannot be overturned and which makes certain they will win the next election with a large-if not increased- majority. This will be Browns calculation.
Labour are in the position of having a new leader who has transformed their fortunes and put them in an unassailable position. This happens to have coincided with the country deciding the opposition are not serious contenders and don’t even rate their leader as highly as they did IDS. Against this perfect backdrop I can’t see why Gordon would resist?
I can’t see how Gordon can resist.
67
Agree totally, anytime now, the Tory tactic will be,’ Do you want to give this man (Brown) absolute power’
86: ‘If you take the square root of a flying pig’ : Shhhh that is a co-ordinate in the secret Ave it polling methodology - not for everyone to know here……
86 - Because he has only been in the job for a little over 100 days and he doesnt want to be the answer to a Trivial Pursuit question.
I think this is the Ukranian exit poll. Looks as if the Orange parties have polled 44.9%. And КПУ - 5,1% sounds like the Communist Party….but what is Блок Литвина 3,7%?? Andrea, I know you are a fluent Ukranian speaker
Результати Національного exit-poll:
* Партія регіонів: 35,2%
* БЮТ: 31,5%
* НУ-НС 13,4%
* КПУ - 5,1%
* Блок Литвина 3,7%
* Проти всіх: 2,9%
* Соцпартія Україны: 2,5%
* ПСПУ: 1,5%
86
‘I can’t see how Gordon can resist.’
Do you know the party allegiance of the i million voters that will not have completed their registration on time on the electoral role to participate in an election in the next few weeks?
roger. you are a tool of the highest order……..
Robert. Great story about the police services!!
90 Looks like there were 4 exits polls, all quite similar, wikipedia has the exit polls here http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ukrainian_parliamentary_election%2C_2007
All of them show that the two orange parties should have a majority if they can form a coalition
92 LOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOL
John.
I’m no expert on this question but I don’t understand the point people are making. Surely if you were on the electoral roll earlier this year you’ll still be on it now . Are you referring to those who have moved in the last few months and won’t be able to vote in their new constituencies? Won’t they still have a vote in their old constituencies? They can always get a postal vote if they can’t be bothered to go back. Also what’s the point about student registration that people are making?
85 - the campaign in Barnsley and Bolsover has not yet lost heart…still folding those leaflets.
94 - Many thanks. The lovely Yulia seems to have done spectacularly well, and the treacherous Socialists confined to oblivion
(though as they are only 0.2% below the 3% threshold that could change when actual votes are counted). Reasons to be cautiously cheerful….
95 he makes me laugh, wot a bellend.
OK OK somebody has to be the shamelessly optimistic Tory poster on here. My prediction for an autumn election:
Con LOADS
Lab: 2 (Gordon and Nick)
LibDems: WIPEOUT
Come back Ave It - we need you!!!
Roger at 86:
“The facts are that Labour has an opinion poll lead with EVERY pollster ”
True, true. Inarguable fact.
“which in a month cannot be overturned ”
Ah. Not an inarguable fact. The polls can swing violently, and appear to be “softer” than for a very long time.
“and which makes certain they will win the next election with a large-if not increased- majority. ”
“Certain” is a very strong word. It implies that (for example) 20 to 1 on odds would still be free money.
So, would you accept 10 quid to 200 quid on that (If there is an election and Labour has a majority of 66 or greater afterwards, you win 10 pounds (free money, if you are right); if there is an election and Labour fail to get a majority of 66 or more, I win 200 pounds. No election equals bet cancelled)
96
This was raised in the politics show this morning,please see below earlier post by Ralph.
From my own experince registration forms are still out waiting for updates by households ,collection and then updating on the system.
‘A bit OT but the Politics Show had a chap from the Association of Electoral Administrators on who basically said that an autumn election would be a disaster because the electoral roll won’t be up dated until December (apparently disenfranchising up to a million voters) and the systems aren’t in place to hold one.
If true an Autumn election will make Florida in 2000 look good.’
94: ‘the two orange parties should have a majority’ - wont see that here!
97: we’ve got those in the bag. Up to liverpool Riverside soon
Cllr Little. Precisely my point!
96 - As I understand the one million people are those who have moved in the last year. They have two options 1. vote in the old constituency either by post or in person or 2. register at their new address.
We have a rolling register, so people can register at any time but each household is sent a form annually to deal with peoples inertia. However this new register does not come into force until Dec 1st. If there is a clear message to people explaining the situation it should not be a problem for anyone who wants to vote.
86 a rather naive comment. Clearly liklihood is that Labour would
retain some lead but to say “within a month it cannot be overturned”
is stretching it. All it requires is a shift of c3-4% from Labour to Tories of voters polled after the Labour conference. History demonstrates such shifts have sometimes occured within a couple of weeks.
The best scenario I can think of is if Alex Salmond takes on Gordon Brown for his constituency and wins and Labour end up the largest party with no overall control.
Who would go and see the Queen?
89 “you remember Gordon Brown, prime minister for that awful wet summer, with the floods and epidemics, oh and a run on a bank.. yeah Gordon, he was after Tony thingy, you know..he’d been whatsit, oh yeah, Chancellor for ages..wonder what happened to him”
102 Yes I understand that the lists are being updated( and that the updates won’t be ready till December?) but as long as you were on the old list surely you’ll have a vote somewhere even if it’s not where you currently live. That doesn’t amount to disenfranchisement. It’s ridiculous to say you could never have an autumn GE because of this point. There may be a point I’m missing here, of course….
107 - Harriet Harman?
Kieran Thank you. That is not disenfranchisement. What about the student registration point?
100 - you are the future. I am not going anywhere!
109 - No Blue Moon you are right - no one is disenfranchised. It may be harder for people to vote i.e. they may not realise they need to reregister where they live or vote where they used to which is why this fact should be advertised in the event of an election
The student registration point is exactly the same but writ large. Nearly all students will have moved house in the last year - and given that turnout amongst them is low anyway the danger is it drops further because they have to make more of an effort to get registered. Plus it may mean more vote at their home address. This could affect seats with large student populations.
IT’s FUTURE PB.COM TIME:
Posting from ‘Ave it 08′ Tues 02 Jan 2008, 9.15pm.
‘Well Christmas and New Year are over now. And what jolly fun it was to reminisce on the highlight of 2007, the GE of 1 Nov 07!
Gordon called it on 3 October even as the poll lead began to shrink. The final outcome of Con 311 Lab 310 LD 10 Others 29 was a joy to behold. The elimination of all LD MPs in London was a special treat. In Montogomery we celebrated the election of the only independent, the Kitten Party, which removed Mr Opik. Prime Minister David Cameron wishes everyone a happy new year’
The only glimmer of a hope that Cameron could hold Labour’s majority to manageable proportions is on the charge of opportunism. It’s the kind of thing that if it gains traction could lead to some bad feeling and therefore abstentions. It’s a valid criticism. Some of the sting has been taken out of this by Cameron demanding an election today at his conference and even the Lib Dems yesterday saying it is the only democratic thing to do!
105
‘ As I understand the one million people are those who have moved in the last year. They have two options 1. vote in the old constituency either by post or in person or 2. register at their new address.’
Certainly the update form I received (I have lived at the same house for the past 12 years)stated that if it was not completed and given for collection then I would not appear on the register and be able to vote.
Will the above be completed in time for an election in 4 weeks?
How many potential voters will be excluded because they won’t bother with your options 1 & 2.
107 jsfl a good point. The idea of Salmon standing in Brown’s constituency has been rumoured in Scotland recently. The SNP with a different canditate should have little difficulty in holding Banff, Salmon does not need to continue as a MP as well as MSP and could conceiverably give Brown a lot of aggro. I suspect most Tories and LIb Dems in the Fife constituency would support Salmon.
116 - What tosh, every time the Conseratives and Cameron are in the spotlight the Conservatives position improves. That is why Brown is bulldozing his way into the news at every available opportunity. Terrorist bombs, Brown with Home Sec in a supporting role, Floods Brown with no support, FMD Brown environment secretary no-where to be seen. We have exchange government by sofa with government by one-man band. The ego has landed.
“89 “you remember Gordon Brown, prime minister for that awful wet summer, with the floods and epidemics, oh and a run on a bank.. yeah Gordon, he was after Tony thingy, you know..he’d been whatsit, oh yeah, Chancellor for ages..wonder what happened to him””
He became the longest serving Prime Minister since the war!
118 - that sounds fishy!
Those who are crowing about ‘no disenfranchisement’ obviously don’t understand people. You turn up and you can’t vote you are effectively disenfranchised, you don’t get the postal vote you just applied for and you are effectively disenfranchised.
You can go ‘ah, but’ till the (non F&M infected) cows come home but perception is king. As for the state of the registers, can we listen to the expert from the AEA rather than a labour supporter popping up on a blog.
An election now is the choice of the moral coward, it’s in Brown’s hands to show if he is or not.
http://scotlandonsunday.scotsman.com/index.cfm?id=1561982007
116. “the Lib Dems yesterday saying it is the only democratic thing to do! ”
This is not exactly a uniformly accepted view within the Liberal Democrats. Nobody I know has ever voted for a Prime Minister in the UK. Maybe one or two people think they are doing so but that is either the fault of themselves for being ignorant or the media for creating, fanning and sustaining that ignorance.
My biggest concern right now is that the British people will wake up to the fact that behind all the posturing nonsense there is hardly a fag-paper between the Cameron tribe and the Brown tribe these days, and become easy vote-fodder for extremists who capitalise upon serious fears and the genuine wish for real change which neither of the ugly sisters will provide in a month of Sundays, it being against the interests of their paymasters and the incumbents (both Labour and Tory and a few from the smaller parties too) in Westminster.
John
Life is tough. If they can’t be bothered to get a postal vote that’s their look out. I got one myself a couple of elections ago. It isn’t exactly difficult. This does not amount to ‘disenfranchisement’. Their votes have not been ’stolen’. It might be sensible to put out some TV advertising advising people who’ve moved over x months to check to see whether they’re registered at their old address.
107 & 118
‘jsfl a good point. The idea of Salmon standing in Brown’s constituency has been rumoured in Scotland recently.’
Wouldn’t put it past Salmond who would capitalise with posters of Brown bowing to Maggie outside no 10,(Salmond already commented that this picture was worth a thousand words)would go down a treat in Scotland and provide great entertainment during the campaign.
118. The leader in the Herald is hardly complimentary of Brown either. he may rue his attack of Blue Tongue last week as it doesn’t sound as if it is being received well in Scotland.
Interesting to see the next Scottish poll.
A lot - possibly even a majority - of people who have moved and don’t pay it close attention will have filled out the form in September like everyone else and assumed incorrectly they are on the register in force. No amount of advertising will change their minds unless they are very keen.
It’s going to be a big mess.
122: Why do you feel the Conservatives and LibDems are urging this ‘moral cowardice’ on us? They’re just kidding? Bluffing? Whistling in the dark? Exhibiting character flaws?
Had a long canvass today in a Labour stronghold, which I never like doing, as if you got 70% last time then things can probably only get worse. The feeling of dread as you ring a doorbell of a house with five past Labour voters - are they all still alive, present, and Labour? I found two ’solid Labour’ who swore they had never done such a disgusting thing and never would, but otherwise it was rock solid with some enthusiasm breaking out - ‘I want a stonking great poster!’ said my favourite lady, clutching a disabled rescue cat (yes, the fact that she votes Labour isn’t the important bit as far as I’m concerned). One voter asked if I couldn’t get the council to clean a bollard that dogs pee on - ah, an MP’s life is so glamorous.
…and would provide an excellent excuse for delaying for a few months should GB wish to.
Nick I’ll bet you offered to clean the bollard yourself you shameless old thing!
124 Blue Moon - you are a rare individual who is interested in politics between elections, most won’t have thought about it and in a three week election won’t get round to sending the request off let alone post their votes. It’s not literal disenfranchisement agreed but it will be enough of a mess that the press will pick it up - but that could be another crisis for Lord Gord to ’solve’.
129 - Brown made so much about his ‘moral compass’ that it’s time to take him to task for it.
In any case, I use the terms knowing that they came out of the pages of The Guardian (pace Martin Kettle) as they started this ball rolling. Tories, lib dems *and* labour supporters calling Brown a moral coward? Surely not.
“A 2007 election would be expedient, vain and immoral”
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/story/0,,2179831,00.html
128 - Whilst I don’t doubt you are telling the truth, I would say that canvassing is a terribly poor guide to things. I have done a fair few canvasses in all sorts of areas. One street has you thinking great, another you think oh my God we’re doomed. You then aggregate it out and it is just another enormous guess. Case in point was a council ward we ran in May trying to take a seat off the BNP, we were on the door day and night. At the end of the campaign we got together and our best guess was that it was tight, the BNP had lost and by 50-60 votes. Result turned out to be BNP loss by 400. Which whilst good was not a vindication of our rune reading abilities. I say this because I think politicians tend to make the facts fit their preconceptions and ignore any painful evidence to the contrary. This is not necessarily a fault but it makes making predictions a tad dicey.
Ted What you seem to be saying is that autumn elections should be banned for this reason. I can’t agree with that. Your political point is different; maybe GB will be blamed for ‘chaos’.
Personally I think people should not be infantilised all the time. It takes very little effort to get a postal vote. If people can’t be bothered then frankly tough. I have no sympaty with them.
David Cameron agrees that it’s perfectly reasonable to have a GE now as he’s very publicly stated today.
132
I think what Kettle was refering too, was it would be wrong to take advantage of the Tories as they are looking weak at the moment. Think he wants to, ‘give a sucker an even break’
122
Douglas Alexander who is Brown’s election co-ordinator was also responsible for completely screwing up in Scotland and disenfranchising around 100,000 voters in May’s election;inspite of all advice to the contrary he insisted on using new equipment.
No doubt with Alexander involved again we can expect another mess,hopefully as in May it will backfire again on Labour.
Hasta la vista….. We’ll be back!
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/7020501.stm
122 - Obviously the state of the electoral register is one factor to consider but surely it is the job of the AEA to ensure that whenever there is an election it is administered properly. A Nov 1st election is not far from an October one, which although not common, is not unknown.
I don’t see how the immorality charge can stick given both opposition parties are calling for an election - are they not just as immoral?
Personally I favour fixed term parliaments but our system gives the power to call elections to the Prime Minister, it can hardly be immoral to use that power when every predecessor has done the same.
Osborne to raise taxes on the rich apparently. Smart move. 50p over £100,000 perhaps? It would get him noticed more effectively than his married couples nonsense
135 - Not what he wrote at all
“A 2007 election would be entirely unnecessary and without precedent - though it would certainly set one. It would be an act of opportunism and no little vanity. It would elevate campaigning above governing. It would be an election driven by pollsters and partisans, not by the people or by propriety. It would be a dereliction of responsibility. It would be morally wrong.”
Incontrovertible.
Cor what side of what bed did Nick Robinson fall out of? His last comment to Camera carried all the air of a man intent on serious payback
134 The state of the electoral process is what I would blame, and that lies at the door of the Government. It’s approach to postal ballots and the other criticisms in the articles quoted above.
I don’t claim that the process was fairer in the past - people were disenfranchised because of the rules about electoral rolls but it was less chaotic and less prone to fraud. I’m a bit of a taditionalist - if people are physically able, and not away on a pre-arranged trip, then I think voting should be in person. Labour is far to laissez faire about the vote and this shows in the increasing problems we experience.
140 - opportunism will feature in the tory attack, but really Gord will brush it aside with great promises of the future, and the criticism will come across as sour grapes from a rattled opposition that can’t stand up to the LP machine. Even if it does run for a week or 2 in the campaign, no one could seriously think it will dominate.
Let me guess, the voters will say to themselves ‘don’t think much of having to choose between the parties, now, so I think I’ll vote for Cameron because at least he’s not an opportunist’.
Clutching at straws, IMHO.
UKPaul. Were you not one of those saying Brown should call an election a few months ago?
141:What do you mean?
Punter I missed Robinson What did he say?
144 - I said that, for his own good, he should. That’s different to it being the right thing to do.
143 - That sound is your moral compass going down the drain. It’s in Brown’s hands, he can be thought well of and wait or he can be known forever as a liar and opportunist and go now. Does he want to win more than he values his integrity? We’ll soon see.
147. Perhaps he’s belatedly taking your advice? My guess though is that your hatred of him and all things not Tory is such that he’d struggle to do anything that would find favour with you!
146 That the Tories were the only condemned men calling the executioner closer or quoting a “delegate” to that effect. I don’t think he’s ever forgiven Cameron though for making the rest of the Press pack laugh at him when he was declared Leader. Cameron may regret that quip now
149. what was the quip?
148 - You’re still a fraud Roger, you know it and that’s why it hurts. You feel comfortable supporting Brown’s appropriation of Howards’ manifesto and I despise him for it. That’s what makes you a tory and me a lib dem I suppose.
Meanwhile another £3k gone on in Betfair and now narrowed to 5/8
I thought Robinson was a bit bitchy with that comment. And I also think the news focusing on the Tories sound problems is really petty as well. Are the BBC/ITN telling me that Labour never have problems with their microphones?
Overall, it looks like a reasonable first day for the Conservatives. No mass suicide pact. No backstabbing (at least not in public) Early days I know, but I’m reasonably confident that Cameron’s going to have a good week.
Well at least the quiet man turned up the volume. I thank you
Is it worth thinking about the major issues that might sway Gordon from calling the election now? I can think of three:
- Tories have a good conference and Labour’s poll shrinks
- £1 a litre fuel this week
- Tories able to turn Labour’s unwillingness to have a referendum on the EU constitution into a strong campaigning point (not easy for them, but possible).
148. Calm down Roger, dear. If Brown is despised it is because he is a complete charlatan and worse is an incompetent buffoon when it comes to almost any area of government (lets not forget that as Labours spin doctors told us constantly Brown was in charge of the domestic agenda - therefore prison crisis = his fault, Hospital closures = his fault, unlimited immigration = his fault). The one thing is is good at is spin so therefore we have the frankly embarrassing I am the new Thatcher moment last week, but maybe even these skills are beginning to let him down now he is centre stage as by the end of the week it had all unravelled (shrum wrote half of his speech Cameron the other half). So for the proof of his true nature I think most people should despise Brown. The real question is why do you unthinkingly support Brown and hate Cameron(just because he is a tory)