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Can Cameron turn it round?

Like Iain Duncan Smith in 2003, and Michael Howard in 2004, David Cameron goes to the Conservative conference in a desperate position. Labour has an opinion poll lead that would give it an increased majority, were it to be repeated in a general election, and there are certainly some members of his party who would love nothing more than an outbreak of civil war at the party conference. Many senior figures in the Labour party are keen on an early election, in the belief that this will finish off both the Conservative Party (although it seems unlikely to me that 35% of the population can ever be permanently disenfranchised).

Recent history suggests that David Cameron does have a good chance of boosting his party’s standing at the conference. To my mind, there could have been no Conservative conference more shambolic and awful than that of October 2003.

Yet, a snap poll taken by Yougov straight after the conference showed Conservative support rising from 33% to 38%, and a few days later, ICM and MORI showed Conservative support rising by 3% and 4% respectively. In 2004, the Conservative conference took place straight after the Hartlepool by-election, where they finished fourth, with Populus, Yougov and ICM placing them on 28-30%.

Yet by the end of the month, after a successful speech from Michael Howard, they were placed on 31-33%. Quite possibly, a snap poll after the conference would have shown a bigger boost. Last year, a lead of 1% with ICM, and level-pegging with Yougov, prior to the conference, had been converted into leads of 10% and 7% respectively, after the conference.

Provided the Conservative Party does not tear itself to pieces next week, then there must be a good chance that the party will see its ratings rise from 32-34%, at present, to the 35/36% that it enjoyed at the start of September. And that in turn, would surely make it very risky for Gordon Brown to call a snap election, although perhaps the momentum for an early poll, which will either finish Brown’s political career, or Cameron’s, is now unstoppable.

This week’s round of local by-elections was a good deal better for the Conservatives than the previous two weeks’. As always, however, don’t read too much into any one set of results.

Portsmouth City Council, Nelson. Labour 791, Conservative 682, Lib Dem 548, UKIP 90, Green 78, English Democrat 71. Labour Hold. Both the Conservatives and Labour increased their vote share slightly, compared to May, and the Conservatives moved up from third place.

Sunderland Metroplitan Borough, Washington East. Conservative 1,196, Labour 994, Lib Dem 206. Conservative gain from Labour. Sunderland is one Northern city where the Conservative Party has not faded away, and they worked very hard to pull off this win.

Cheshire County Council, Gowy. Conservative 1,863, Lib Dem 1,419, Labour 307, UKIP 107. Conservative hold. The Labour vote dropped by 80%, compared to 2005.

Northamptonshire County Council, Lloyds. Labour 1,093, Conservative 375, Lib Dem 311, BNP 265. An easy Labour hold, although they appear to have been harder hit by the BNP than the other parties.

Chester Le Street District Council, Central. Labour 324, Conservative 88, Lib Dem 81, BNP 51. An easy hold for Labour, in one of their strongholds.

Mansfield Borough Council, Lindhurst. Labour 339, Independent 302, Lib Dem 215, Conservative 61, Green 35. Labour gain from Independent. Traditionally, Mansfield has been a Labour stronghold, but the council is now controlled by independents. Perhaps, Labour is regaining ground.

Dover District Council, Aylesham. Labour 661, Conservative 108, Independent 59, Independent 1. Labour hold, with a big swing to them.

Dover District Council, Maxton, Elms Vale, and Priory. Labour 365, Lib Dem 274, Conservative 252, Independent 70, UKIP 65, Independent 56. Labour hold, but with quite a large swing against them.

Kent County Council, Dover Town. Labour 1,860, Conservative 1,348, Lib Dem 420, Independent 300, UKIP 256. Labour hold.

Sean Fear

Why is it that the lead amongst 2005 voters is only about 3%?

One of the great new polling sources that we have now that we didn’t have last time is a breakdown, segment by segment, of people’s current intentions based on what they did at the last election.

This approach was pioneered by ICM just twelve months ago and now all the telephone pollsters present their detailed data in this way. This gives poll-watchers a whole range of new trends to track such as whether those who said they voted in 2005 are thinking differently from those who didn’t.

This enabled us earlier in the year to observe that the big move to Cameron’s Tories was by people who, for whatever reason, did not vote in 2005.

Now the polls are showing that much of the big lurch to Labour since June has come from the non-2005 voting group - so much so that the lead amongst those who actually voted in 2005 is only about 3%.

In fact in almost every single Populus and ICM survey where this data is available the Tories are doing better at retaining their 2005 support than Labour.

This could be worrying for Labour planners because, surely, those with a track record of voting at previous elections are more likely to do so at the next one.

Maybe the expected weekend polls will show something different but this trend could be a little worrying.

Mike Smithson

Do these make the general election decision even harder?

Having worked for BBC national news for nearly a decade and a half and having been closely involved in politics since I cannot remember a Friday morning when a batch of local councils by elections has made the headlines. The only times the news editors have taken notice of these contests in the past has been when the BNP or similar parties has made progress.

Maybe it was the revelation at the weekend that Gordon Brown is an avid follower of these contests has put them up the political agenda?

Clearly with a possible general election much in mind every bit of evidence that might indicate how opinion is moving will be scrutinised to the nth degree.

The BBC is quoting an analysis that suggests that in national terms last nights results represent a projected 6.2% lead. I’m always very doubtful about such numbers because local elections are just that - local - and I am far from convinced that it is possible to make that sort of projection.

The “Guardian poll” reported in the previous article turned out to be the paper listing as “latest polling results” last weekend’s ICM survey for the Sunday Mirror which had Labour 6% ahead.

Mike Smithson

Above is the front page of the Guardian as featured on the SkyNews website. But there’s no reference anywhere, it seems, to the numbers that are apparently on the front page.

Has anybody got a copy? Does anybody know?

Mike Smithson

What margin would trigger a visit to see the Queen?

For all the bravado, leaking, teasing and wind-ups Gord is not going to risk his premiership on the basis of current polling evidence. What he needs to see is how the public react after they’ve been exposed to the Tories and, in particular, to the big speech by David Cameron.

For much of the poll movement to Labour has been driven by the almost total news blackout from the Tories during Brown’s return from holiday, the Lib Dems conference and then, this week, Labour in Bournemouth.

No doubt Gord will have plans to distract attention from the coverage of Cameron’s speech but he needs to see how the public react. If the polls move back to the August levels then it will, surely, be too risky.

If however the conventional pollsters, ICM and Populus in particular, are reporting margins of 6-7 points or more then I believe there’s a good chance that Gord will chance it.

One thing’s for sure - next week is going to be one of the biggest weeks in British politics for a long long time.

Mike Smithson

Or is Ken certain of a third successive victory?

This morning’s news that Boris Johnson had won an overwhelming victory in the Tory “open primary” to choose its mayoral candidate will hardly come as a surprise. In races like this it’s the most well-known that usually clinches it and there could have been little doubt that the former Spectator editor fits that category.

But what are his chances? Is it possible that he could give Labour’s unopposed choice, Ken Livingstone, a run for his money?

On the face of it the electoral system should make this quite an easy election for the Tories. Turnouts are normally substantially higher in the outer suburbs than in the Labour strongholds. In 2004 the Tories had a substantial margin over Labour in the London Authority elections that were held at the same time.

Alas there wasn’t much enthusiasm behind their candidate, Steve Norris and perhaps one in six Tory voters in the Authority election switched to Livingstone for the Mayor.

Will the same happen again? Will Boris’s perceived lack of seriousness count against him? Was Ken right when he boasted at the Labour conference that he had just delivered “..the first “Boris Johnson memorial lecture”?

It’s hard to say but Livingstone is one helluva politician.

Mike Smithson