Could this body cause Gord to delay an election?
October 1st, 2007
-
What if a million people were unable to vote?
One of the issues that is emerging about an early election is coming from the Association of Election Administrators - the body that represents those charged with running elections.
Their chief executive, John Turner, has been popping up everywhere in the past twenty four hours making the same points - that because of the administrative arrangements it might be difficult staging a general election where those entitled to vote can vote.
The updated electoral register covering those who had moved recently or have just turned 18 years old is not going to be ready until December 1. On top of that, surprisingly, returning officers had not been identified for newly changed constituencies which will come into effect in England and Wales.
There were also problems with computer checks on postal votes in May’s local elections which, it is believed, would be multiplied “several times over” in a general election when, clearly, there is a far bigger turnout.
Quite what to make of this I do not know but Turner’s message is getting through.
If Gordon decides to go then he want it to happen immediately while Labour still has the momentum and it might be hard to do so in the face of this advice.
Mike Smithson
MessageSpace Advertising
You can just see the Labour line: “But as all the councils are now run by the Tories, it’s their fault…”
So did GO announce the stamp duty policy details ?
One possible outcome would be a last-minute change to the law relaxing registration rules and suspending the new postal vote arrangements until after the election, which the Opposition, of course, would have to agree to.
You think GB will care what these guys say if he wants to do it…
2.1 not on 2007 election on betfair - panic ???
2. To answer my own question..
Shadow Chancellor George Osborne says a Conservative government will increase the threshold for inheritance tax from the current £300,000 to £1m
I thought that the electoral register was continually updated.
I have missed John Turner on the media but if he is saying that an election is unfair then his members have not done their jobs. They have to be ready at all times for an election.
Banana Republic anyone?
re 3. Well if there’s an election on 1st November, then parliament which returns next Monday is dissoloved on Tuesday. I can’t see that getting through both houses in a day.
Mike
We had a discussion about this yesterday. It’s simply wrong that 1 million can’t vote; they can easily get a postal vote and vote at their last place of residence. Frankly even a June election would mean a lot of people had moved since the previous December. It is simply ridiculous to say that autumn elections are ruled out for this reason.
There are organisations which might rule out a GE, however. They’re called ICM, YOUGOV, MORI and POPULUS.
3 - There is no guarantee that that wouldn’t make the situation worse.
The Electoral Role’s always been a bit of a scam - it’s always been the case that you can pay council tax and tv licence for about a year without anyone caring about your place in the democratic process.
I think John Turner should keep away from making loaded political statements and concentrate on his supposedly neutral job.
If there is an election then people will have a very brief period to register individually. (by 10th Oct for an election on 25th, 17th Oct for 1st Nov.)
In some seats there are many thousands of students, most of whom will have changed address, and very little time for them to register.
The issue of ROs not yet having been agreed for the new seats is weaker. They have known about the new seats for a fair while now.
How many hours would it take them to agree which is to be the new Returning Officer?
not sure how labour can justify caling an election in the middle of foot and mouth etc . Since when did political opportunism overtake running a country as a prority for HM Government?
As foot and mouth previously delayed a scheduled election what makes labour so power mad they think they can mess with the country and call an unecessary one during an outbreak?
Thought the following from Michael White’s blog at
http://blogs.guardian.co.uk/news/2007/10/michael_whites_tory_conference.html
was worth highlighting:
“The event which most intrigues [Cameron] is the claim in the Times (feeble in my view) that Brown’s speech last week lifted great chunks of American speeches, courtesy of his US pollster, Bob Shrum. It proves a lack of authenticity which voters will rumble, Conservative strategists are telling each other.
The detail which most impresses me is that the prime minister rang the editor of the Times, Robert Thompson, four times (six times in one version) to complain about the story.
No 10 has been refusing comment. If this is true, as I fear it might be, it is scary because it reinforces the control freak theme which Bullingdon and his team will hammer at in any election. Prime ministers should never complain. Maybe that’s why the Times wrote a snotty leader. They are looking for an excuse to turn on Gordon.”
I wouldn’t want the job of being one of Gordon’s handlers at the election - whenever it calls. First bit of bad news and he’s off to the Bunker!
Liberal Neil I dare say Labour may feel that this could help them gain back a couple of seats from the LDs?
If you sit around waiting for everything to be in place, every I to be dotted, every T to be crossed, that’s exactly what you’ll be doing sitting around.
Brown should go to the country, and give as his reason, a desire for the British people to endorse, (or not) his premiership.
8, 10 - Yes: it’d depend on system readiness, and how feasible would it be to run a scratch election on the pre-EAA rules. But, if - and only if - the Opposition parties agree, it can be rushed through. For instance, just before the February 1974, there had to be last-minute changes in legislation to take account of inflation, in order to prevent most candidates being force to exceed spending limits (to be fair, that suggestion was made by the Speaker’s Conference that happened to be going on at the time, so there was a bi-partisan background already).
These 1 million missing voters will surely be mostly Labour supporters, no? The drifting, rootless, and hard up. Great news…
I rather enjoyed George Osbourne’s witty response to Jim Naughtie’s question on whether Brown would call an election - “Well, you know him better than I do”. It clearly hit a nerve.
gus. I don’t know how you’ve come up with that idea. People move every seven? years on average for a variety of reasons. I suspect homeowners are far more mobile than council and housing association tenants so, if anything, it might hurt the Tories. However, all these people can get a postal vote. Quite a few will, a fair few others wouldn’t have voted anyway. The figure is grossly exaggerated.
osborne fluffed his lines in grand old style at one point in his speech where he said…and empty passenger planes will pay the same tax as full ones….:-)
must say the jokes were very lame and many delegates weren’t sure how to respond, could the cameroons not have sorted out a flashing neon “joke” sign so the poor old duffers in the audience knew when to laugh
2.14 on 2007 on b/fair and rising.
Jan - Jun 2009 into 4.8 from 6
14. Agriculture is responsible for a tiny proportion of our GDP and argiculture involving cattle a small proportion of that. A minor outbreak of foot and mouth should not feature at all in Brown’s election calculations.
22. He should have watched our esteemed foriegn secretary - now that was a tub-thumping barnstorm of a conference speech..
Certainly some interesting proposals from Osbourne and Gove, I imagine Brown will want to copy some of them. If this doesn’t generate a poll bounce for Tories then what will…
After the judge’s comments about the problems with Birmingham’s Postal Voting, has anything concrete been done to improve the integrity of the voting system?
Looking at the elections last May in Scotland when up to 10% of votes were ‘disqualified, I wonder why Labour hasn’t been taken to task. I cannot recall so many ballot papers being rejected in any other recent UK election, these numbers seemed to be without precedent. It is one thing having a Foreign Secretary going off on a jaunt to highlight the lack of democracy in Burma, but the UK’s voting system has degenerated into a shambolic mess particularly since 2001.
OT. Peter Mulhern of “American Thinker” on why Fred Thompson will win the GOP nomination :
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2007/10/why_thompson_will_win.html
It’s the student vote where I think there would be the heaviest losses: new students, and those who have changed residence over the long vac, generally have their registration details handled for them by the ‘varsity authorities, and I doubt the univerities would be able to them all on the register by mid-Novemeber.
22 in other words he made an excellent speech that his audience enjoyed and those of us fed up of paying too much tax for too little return can be satisfied with.
The real problem with the roll and the systems being so far behind is the increased risk of electoral fraud.
Another mess that appears to help labour in some way would be very bad news for them indeed.
observer.
I agree with that. Won’t that hurt the LDs in some seats to the benefit of Labour?
Interesting article. However, Rudy’s strengths are the fact that (up until a few days ago) he refused to pander on Immigration, Abortion or Gun Control or do a Kerry on 9/11. While this may be changing with his pandering to the NRA and his $9.11 fundraiser he still is running the best campaign. I agree that he is the weakest candidate, in that he is going to run badly in the Midwest and the South without being able to take any Northern states away from the Dems, Thompson has not run a very effective campaign.
30
No
Or could this give GB an excuse NOT to call an election?
24-Since when should the rights of a minority be trampled over? Except when governed by Labour of course! Imagine if you replaced agriculture by ethnic minorities/homosexuals/etc and GDP by population. What response do you think you’d get from the great and the good? Point should be that F&M caused Saint Tony to delay in 2001 so there is “previous”.
9.”We had a discussion about this yesterday. It’s simply wrong that 1 million can’t vote; they can easily get a postal vote and vote at their last place of residence.”
Bluemoon, I think that is the very problem they are highlighting. They just cannot deliver on the volume of postal votes in the time allotted, especially with the new checks being implemented. Add in the complication of the electoral register not being updated in full until December and that will cause further chaos. If they can’t deliver on the postal votes for people who have not moved or changed their details, what chance have the voters who have got of getting their postal vote in time?
32. Lib Dems down too! even better
22.I liked the joke about burying the details in the small print.
Labour Humanist I assume you did not see the Osborne speech and hear the deafening applause and see the wide smiles all around the hall.
I see, though, you have not attacked the policy just the man, again. Wonder why?
39 i saw the speech, he is very wooden.
are you equating happy tory activists with happy voters - if you are you need to lose more elections because clearly you still haven’t learnt the obvious lesssons staring you in the face
re 18 but why would it be in the Con and LD interests to help the government hold an election for which there’s absolutely no need except narrow party political advantage for the Lab party? So much for concentrating on “getting on wit hthe job”
32 - I think it depends on the seat. In somewhere like Birmingham Yardley, Cardiff Central or Oxford W and Abingdon, for instance, the LDs are probably too entrenched to lose, although they may suffer. It could be crucial in Bristol West, Leeds NW and in Manchester Withington, where Labour (and the Tories in Leeds NW too) are in stronger positions.
4
‘You think GB will care what these guys say if he wants to do it…’
I would have thought that if an election was about to be called Brown would have gagged this guy or got one of his cabinet boys Ed Miliband or Douglas Alexander to answer this point?
Chris D
To be honest this whole thing sounds like one long pathetic bureaucratic excuse. The Town Halls need to get on with their job rather than clucking round like chickens with their heads off.
I’m responding to the argument that 1 million have been disenfranchised. This is simply untrue. The implication is that we can never have autumn elections. That is simply absurd.
We may not have a GE but it will not be for this reason. I notice that the odds on Betfair are just better than evens which, given the uncertainty of the opinion polls over the next few days, seems about right. I notice that as people are hedging on November they’re putting money on May/June 2009, rather than Spring 2008. That seems to me to be right. I don’t buy this argument that GB can brush off a back down with no lasting damage.
The idea that we can have a repeat of this episode starting in January and lasting all the way through till late March before GB decides is, I think, hard to imagine. People will get fed up seeing the Government dithering about a GE for months on end. It’s early or late(ish) IMHO.
Sorry, Labour Humanist (22), I’m a bit slow today. Must be the weather…. You said:
“osborne fluffed his lines in grand old style at one point in his speech where he said…and empty passenger planes will pay the same tax as full ones….:-) ”
I think that is right. Squeaky George Osborne is reciting Lib Dem policy, but without understanding the underlying philosophy and implications. What you quoted makes perfect sense.
Their problem is that the Tories postponed almost indefinitely the creation of policy proposals, opting for their six contradictory commissions - with the result that they have no real new policy, and have to revert to two strategies:
1. Lifting policy from the Lib Dems
and
2. Going back to their “basics” - hang’em, flog’em, send’em home and abolish all taxation.
42 Not to mention say seats such as Oxford East and Manchester Gorton etc
41 - Of course, Brown wouldn’t give them the option before he decided. If he took this route, he’d only present the emergency legislation after dissolution when “the usual channels” meet to agree the winding-up procedure for legislation - and then throw the blame onto the other parties if they disagreed.
45 Re Guido. He is not Lib Dem or Tory but fiercely Libertarian, and wants both to concentrate fighting Labour. He urged CCHQ to put all resources against Labour and back off Lib Dem incumbents. Suggesting that Lib Dems thus freed could pay back by besieging Labour MPs. The flaw in his plan is that Ming with his prefernces would be as if not more likely throw any resources thus freed at Dorset West, Bournemouth East and Guildford, as Norwich South, Islington South and Watford I think
44 - Agree entirely, Blue Moon. The most likely alternative before last week was May 2008, but I can’t see that working now.
42 observer. Bristol W and Leeds NW have seen the Tories badly squeezed in locals and there’s still huge scope for tactical voting. OTOH Withington looks the likliest candidate for difficulty.
40 Witan. Tories activists cheer Tory speech shock !!
Hmmm… So the Labour response is that it’s fine to disenfranchise students (who vote Lib Dem) and farmers (who vote Tory) because the elections are more important than their personal conditions. I can just imagine if back in the early 90’s the Tories had started considering snap elections at times when miners or cleaners would find it much harder to vote. I can just imagine the righteous indignation. Imagine it!
He who wears the dark crown…
There’s a letter from an (obviously) non-political anorak in today’s Indy castigating them for saying Rochdale is one of the seats which Lab must hold when it has a LD MP. As posters on here occasionally make the same mistake it seems that the reality of the new boundaries hasn’t sunk into the public’s consciousness yet.
Admittedly the Indy’s letter editor is not aware of the fact either.
re 47. But you cannot have legislation with no parliament. We’re not quite a complete banana republic yet.
Mike, it’s an interesting point and I’m glad that you’re making it, but let’s be honest, since when has New Labour been concerned about fair representation? The UK system is already grossly unfair and no-one can in all seriousness argue that the UK Parliament is properly representative of the votes of the people.
27 - Dr Spyn, you are spot on. What are 1 million lost votes when there is already massive postal vote fraud on behalf of the UK’s governing party, which only enjoys power due to a mischievous system that gives it a massive Parliamentary majority when it doesn’t even have to bother getting as much as 40% of the vote! And then our wonderful leaders have the gall to say that the people of Britain have given them a mandate to govern. There are already several times a mere 1 million wasted votes.
50 - Jack, while the Tory vote is ripe for squeezing in Bristol West, the Labour vote looks resilient, especially in the central wards coming into the seat. In Leeds, I’m mainly going on the fact that the student vote is so important. Losing a huge proportion of students would probably tip the seat into three-way marginal territory - but you’re probably right about the scope for squeezing.
51 - As far as I recall the Conservatives in the early 90s went out of their way to ensure the miners had plenty of time to cast their votes…
53 - Apologies, I meant after the announcement, but before dissolution.
Labour Humanist my point, I see, that you attack the man not the policy, still stands. Do you agree with the policy he announced?
51, Yet Cameron is telling Gordon to ‘bring it on’.
If those are really genuine grounds for ruling out an election (which I don’t think they are - the student argument would mean that you could never have an autumn election ever, and the farmers affected are a vanishingly small number who could easily get postal votes) then Cameron is being equally guilty.
You can’t demand an election on one hand then say that GB is wrong to call it.
51 Don’t pity the students, the organised ones will make sure they get two votes.
50 well Jack as many were posting last week that the tories would be tearing themselves apart by now I think Gideon’s little pep talk has highlighted some distinctive actual policy - more than any Labour speaker managed last week.
your ‘objective’ veneer gets ever thinner and I expect the micrometer to cease to be able to measure it by polling day.
29 - On the other hand, would you not expect them to chase it up to make sure it was sorted? That they do it at all, rather than leaving it to the individual students responsibility, suggests that they take it seriously enough not to be fatalistic about their students being disenfranchised (or all wanting to head back home to vote there).
A problem anticipated is a problem that can be solved, right?
Jack W Labour Humanist said of the Osborne’s speech “must say the jokes were very lame and many delegates weren’t sure how to respond”.
Well, that wasn’t true, was it, and your Labour cheerleading cannot make it so.
29 / 32/ 42. Re. students. I think it may be more significant that you think. Many universities who used to register students in halls en bloc, now don’t do this for fear of falling foul of the Data Protection Act. It’s left to the parties to organise, or the students to do it themselves.
9: You forget those who have just turned 18 but aren’t on the roll and wouldn’t voting at your old address having registered elsewhere be illegal?
Sorry, Ralph (65). I didn’t quite get that……
59 Why not!! Gordo does that sort of thing all the time. It’s called politics, spin it any way you like!
No I don’t think it would stop Labour having an Autumn G.E. but they may well make it an excuse for not having one.
I recall in Mike’s earlier competition that I said the Tories could be ahead of Labour in a poll next week. This “could” still occur and even if it does not I think the Tories will have done enougth to ensure Brown does not risk an early G.E.
Surely the honest position is that the Tories are scared of an election and
(a) DC feels the need to cover this up by pretending to demand it
while
(b) Tory supporters here feel under no usch compulsion, and are grabbing at any reason to condemn it - F&M, electoral registers, anything will do.
I think we should extend our tent to another Tory and accept Cameron’s request for an election.
why this story now? A GE in the autumn has been a possibility since June. Just goes to show you that “the media” just stir up trouble for Labour. Its amazing that the Tories are behind when 80%of the british media is behind them!
44.”To be honest this whole thing sounds like one long pathetic bureaucratic excuse. The Town Halls need to get on with their job rather than clucking round like chickens with their heads off.”
Bluemoon, earlier this year we had similar warnings about the Scottish elections which were brushed aside in much the same way, as a result 100,000 voters had their votes rejected. We always expect a small level of rejected ballots at any election, but I realised that the warnings issued were proving correct within a couple of constituency counts being announced. The changes to the ballot paper format was where all the media attention went after the election, but I also remember a lot of people complaining about not getting their postal vote in time.
Concerns were also raised about the lack of checks in place for postal voting overall, the concerns raised about this problem were dismissed. The excuse given, was that implementation of these checks were not feasible because of the many other changes being brought in at that election. So basic checks on postal votes were not deemed important, and as far as I know will not even be in place should we have an Autumn GE.
So we could have an Autumn election whereby down in England and Wales delays in postal voting will be further compounded by new checks and balances, while in Scotland we will have none!
I think that this is extremely worrying, but hey, lets leave it all to chance and just hope that people who want to vote can do so by post or in the ballot box without problems. Its not as if there has been any previous form in recent elections which might cause us some concerns?
64 - AFAIK, the EROs have the power to request this info from the Universities despite the Act, although the Universities need formal assurance that this info is for registration purposes only, and they have to inform their students that this has been done.
ChrisD The problem in Scotland was to do with the new voting system and the lay out of the ballot papers, wasn’t it? It doesn’t apply to the UK GE.
66 see 48
50 Do you think seats where the Lib Dems overtook the Tories to become challengers eg Hackney North ands Stoke Newington and Cardiff South will see further Lib Dem growth as the Tories are cut back or was 2005 just a blip
Nick Palmer As a Tory poster I can say your contention at b) is mistaken.
I have consistently said that Brown’s best chance is now. And if he goes for it that is fine as we need either two more years for a win or two elections if necessary.
And if Brown wins that will be the beginning of the end. 1992. But there is a significant possibility that he will not win a working majority, and most Labour strategists are as aware of that as I am.
An election now is a gamble. Waiting for a better chance is an even bigger one.
re 71 Quite correct. I knew from the first announcement (well actually I thought the number of spoilt ballots was a mistake) that something was seriously wrong in Scotland. And what do some Lab cheerleaders on here expect? That the next GE will be held on the same day as the European ones with the local government ones pushed back a month to coincide. So the possibility of three different electoral systems on the same day. They honestly do never learn. we could save sufficient to reduce tax markedly in this country by not holding enquiries whose recommendations are completely ignored.
66: There are going to be a large number of 18 year olds who would be registered to vote after 1 December who wouldn’t be for an election earlier. They wouldn’t have a vote elsewhere as BM suggests.
Also it is arguable that if you register to vote in one place that voids your registration elsewhere.
69 - Be careful Nick, you might tip over into smug self satisfaction - and with your majority, that would be very silly.
On the subject of honesty, let’s hear you recant your partisan and puerile name calling of the Conservative manifesto in 2005, when your own leader at your recent conference - lacking any new ideas or programme for government - shamelessly and cynically purloined the self same ideas you and he trashed just two years ago.
Is that an example of the “no spin” new politics schtick?
Are you a sinner about to repent?
73.Wrong, the problems were more widespread than that. It was just the media concentrated on the single biggest problem.
69: My honest position is that I don’t think possible a million voters should be disenfranchised something I had thought you as an MP would agree with, but plainly not.
ChrisD It was by far the main reason surely.
1 million disenfranchised looks to me an under estimate.
1. circa 700,000 18 year olds
2. Several million adults who have moved in past year. (5% of 40m = 2m)
8 - This is exactly why he will call it tomorrow (most likely) or Wednesday for Nov 1.
Re 52: This is a letter that I have just written to the Indy:
“Sir, I would like to draw to the attention of your writer from Rochdale today (Oct 1st 2007), that he is unfortunately barking up the wrong tree. According to that writer, Rochdale is not a seat that Labour must hold as they currently have a Lib Dem MP. Well, yes they do, but as soon as the Prime Minister calls the election, they won’t. This is because of boundary changes that were laid down earlier this year. Other seats in a similar situation include Solihull (won by the Lib Dems in 2005, but boundary changes make it Conservative), York Outer (made up of several bits of Conservative seats in 2005, now Lib Dem) and of course Croydon Central (won by Conservative Andrew Pelling in 2005, but awarded to Labour under these changes). It does make me wonder though how many people are unaware of the notional make up of the previous House of Commons. All I know is that with a majority of 218, our MP is the 3rd most marginal Liberal Democrat in the country (and that means that we will be certain to see a live declaration from Aberaeron in it’s bicentennial year).”
Those turning 18 during the lifetime of the register are included - they are known as ‘attainers’.
BlueMoon:
“We had a discussion about this yesterday. It’s simply wrong that 1 million can’t vote; they can easily get a postal vote and vote at their last place of residence. Frankly even a June election would mean a lot of people had moved since the previous December. It is simply ridiculous to say that autumn elections are ruled out for this reason.”
So how exactly do I go about that?
I registered to vote in April or May of 2006 when I was living Redbridge, then I moved to another borough for two months (did not re-register, or notify the authorities) and now have been in Tower Hamlets for ten months.
I got a form telling me to register by a certain date in early September to be on the ‘rolling register’ but was away at the time and therefore missed the deadline. Now I have another form the ‘annual canvass’, but which won’t be updated until December 1st.
Another problem is that last week I called the TH free number to see if I could register more easily that way, but there was just a computer, which told that me that if I proceeded I confirmed the current register for my residence is correct (in fact it doesn’t list me and lists four people who do not live here). I accepted thinking I’d be able to talk to a human being but couldn’t - so I’m now still not registered and have broken the law.
So who do I contact if I want to vote in November, TH or Redbridge or both? Is it even possible for me to be updated in time?
There’s absolutely no information on the Council website.
82, You’re supposed to be put on register at the age of 17, which is why electoral rolls always have a sprinkling of people with DOMs that mean they would not be able to vote at the usual May elections. If you turn 18 this calandar year you should already be on the register.
As for the idea that 2m voting adults have moved, that’s a proposterous figure. And even if it were true, thanks to the rolling register they would be able to get a vote anyway.
In any case, if you honestly believe that, I hope you’ll be condemning opposition parties for demanding an election just as loudly.
84 Should be fun. Can easily see double digit mnajority either way
I was also disenfranchised in 2006. I applied at least a month in advance (you say October 10th to vote on 25th - 10 days), and was told I wouldn’t be able to vote in the May Locals… and that wasn’t even during the ‘annual canvass’ period.
77 I may be wrong but I believe that if people have more that one address they can register for a vote in all of them. An offence would only be committed if they voted more than once in the same election.
Nick Palmer, you tar all with the same brush, some people on here do not want an election, others have long believed he would do it because it is his best chance.
On the system problems, this is a new insult along the lines of “could not run a p*** up in a brewery” with
“A Govt that could not run an election”.
81.Bluemoon, I agreed with that in my last post.
The very problems being raised by Association of Election Administrators were there in Scotland back in May, and nothing I have seen or heard since gives me confidence that the problems have been sorted. Bare in mind that the Electoral Register was up to date then, add in the point we are at with the present update of the register and the time scale involved. We are facing a nightmare scenario whereby it won’t be 100,000 votes being rejected, but up to a million people missing out on voting at all.
How the hell did we get into a situation whereby we can dismiss that level of voter disenfranchisement back in May in Scotland, whilst being prepared to risk even greater numbers being left out because of the lack of preparation where it matters for an Autumn GE.
Any government should be able to call an election at the time of their choosing, but the fact that we are facing these problems just highlights that this government could not run a whelk store never be left in charge the country!
And before anyone dismisses this as yet another partisan post, just remember who presided over that bl**dy disgrace that left the voters of Scotland being laughed at and ridiculed by some for being too thick to fill out their ballot forms. I know one elderly voter who refused to vote in May because they were scared to admit they could understand the system.
observer: You say the Labour vote in Bristol W is “resilient”? Maybe you’ve been drinking bong-water or something - Labour came 3rd in the local elections in Bristol W!
93 how significant a factor will the lab-con pact on Bristol City Council be?
78
‘69 - Be careful Nick, you might tip over into smug self satisfaction - and with your majority, that would be very silly.’
I think he’s passed that long ago and moved to cocky complacency,hopefully we will get an election in the next few weeks,and afterwards he will get the opportunity to try out Saatchi & Saatchi’s queues.
So that is where you are on the register, Swing Voter (89)………… What are you complaining about?
93 - By “resilient”, I mean that, IIRC, it hasn’t declined over the past four years - although I’ll check these figures later.
I wouldn’t be at all surprised if the person to take advantage of these comments by the AEA is Gordon Brown. He has probably be looking for an excuse to ignore all his advisors and put off the election and this gives him the perfect get out clause. He can say “Well I was planning on having an election, but I wouldn’t want to jeopardise the integrity of the process, so I am going to chicken out instead.”
ChrisD You keep raising the 100,000 figure which is irrelevant to the GE. Any problems caused by pvs were tiny in comparison. Frankly Town Halls should be gearing themselves up to deal with any problems, not preparing excuses.
People can get postal votes perfectly easily. I contacted my council and they told me there would be no problem at all. People are not going to be disenfranchised. If they can’t be bothered to get a pv that’s their responsibility.
swing voter. My advice to you is to contact one of your ward councillors; I imagine you have three of them. The names and probably email addresses should be on the council website. Explain your predicament and I’m sure he/she will be able to sort the problem out with no difficulty.
I hope the election is not delayed. I can’t wait to see how control freak Brown copes in a coalition with the loonie LibDems.
78: Aha, a colleague. Stewart, I certainly do not withdraw my criticisms of the major planks in your 2005 election manifesto. To ask a question in turn, do you agree with David Cameron that an election now would be a good idea? Or do you agree with the posters here who think it would be immoral?
A point that I don’t think others have raised is the southern orientation of the IHT proposals. I recently sold my detached house in Cossall, a quiet and much sought-after village on the edge of my constituency, for £220,000. Others still on sale there are typically £250K-£285K, and a more typical semi in Kimberley would be more like £165K. Now in, say, Surrey, they would all be worth double that, and raising the IHT threshold from £300K to £1m would be a big saving for some. But outside the south it’s not as relevant. So perhaps the focus on this reflects a core vote strategy and the perceived weakness of LibDemseats in the south?
101 Yes, I think it is designed to appeal to voters in London and the South.
101 Pay is another Regional issue. But mention the idea of paying people to reflect Local living costs Llansantfraid is a tad less expensive than London and the Unions start foaming at the mouth
101: But you do withdraw your criticism of all the bits that are now Labour policy? Could you point us to the press release where you did it or aren’t you telling the voters?
93 Where does he say that
I would have thought that a leaflet next week in ALL unis and colleges from the Lib Dems telling ALL students that Gordon Brown was trying to hold a general election in a way/time that he will prevent half a million students from voting at all might have some effect in banging up student registration and students voting against Labour at the same time.
99.Bluemoon, experts raise concerns about the possibility of serious problems on election day, they are dismissed as being irrelevant.
Two different problems, but the same warnings from the experts. Lets just dismiss those concerns like we did last time, its bound to be all right on the day because all those people out there who liking voting are as savvy as we are about the system and how it works.
75.
“Nick Palmer As a Tory poster”
not a fag paper these days between the two ugly sisters?
101 - Nick, the problem with IHT is that it spooks more people than will ever fall into the net. It is the potential to be landed with a bill when you are at your most vulnerable that means that even people who would never have been affected are likely to feel this as a benefit. The second fact is that house prices have shot up in the South more than the North, this is as a direct result of your governments actions notably concreting over the Thames Gateway, the M11 corridor and every scrap of in-fill land you can get your grubby mits on whilst simultaneously bulldozing houses in the North. House prices are at least partially affected by land scarcity, so gobbling up land pushes the price up.
61/63 kingbongo/witan. Oh for goodness sake …. activists of all parties at their conference would cheer a speak your weight machine a few weeks from a general election !!
86 If you are still on the register in Redbridge then in the event of a GE being called before you have registered in Tower Hamlets you could either apply for a postal vote from Redbridge or vote in person where you were last registered (you do not need to produce either a polling card or currently any ID). You should check with Redbridge you are on the register (assuming the previous form was filled in correctly there is no reason to assume you wouldn’t be ). Even with a rolling register it takes a couple of months to actually appear on the electoral roll. I cant see you have broken any laws. The only way that might be an issue is if you attempt to vote in two different places.
O/T: Putin has said that it’s a ‘realistic idea’ for him to become Prime Minister in 2008.
A correction.
Yesterday Bob Worcester rated the chances of a snap election at 60%. I equated this to 1.6 on Betfair. The correct conversion to Betfair odds should have been 1.67. I think!
Nick
It may be a policy for the South but it could be helpful not just in LD held seats like Richmond but also in Labour marginals in the South too. Obviously it won’t cost you votes in Broxtowe.
Can you whip up indignation in the Midlands and the North; ‘the Tories don’t care about the Regions’? Well obviously you’ll try but it doesn’t hurt other parts of Britain so the effect may be marginal.
Don’t forget that those under the £1 million figure still aspire to reach and pass it so it’s attractive to a wider audience potentially. That was the mistake that Kinnock/Smith made with the Shadow Budget in 1992. They thought that the ‘pain’ threshold was high enough to be safe but they forgot about aspirational Britain. Now the perceived ‘gain’ threshold may be lower than you think.
Let’s see how it polls in the coming days but I’ll bet this has been carefully focus grouped before it was launched.
93. Ever heard of differential turnout
101 - You also have the “aspirational” factor. People who aren’t currently that well off may be swayed by it because of their Del-boy like belief that, “this time next year, [they]‘ll be millionaires…”
So, perhaps that is greed on behalf of their daydreams.
Also, you have the emotional factor. Many people will stop listening when you introduce numbers into a debate like this, so the fact that it is a redistributive tax from a small minority and that the more important issue is to deal with those who dodge the tax, is lost, behind the noise of “Death tax! Death tax!”
101.”But outside the south it’s not as relevant. So perhaps the focus on this reflects a core vote strategy and the perceived weakness of LibDemseats in the south?”
Nick, I disagree. It is a very relevant problem up in Scotland in some places like the Highlands, Aberdeen, Glasgow and Edinburgh to name but a few.
Putin’s standing in the December elections!!!! ( according to BBC News strapline so some significant caution needed). What a ridiculous betting market that was and I use the word advisedly.
102. Exactly.
My believe is that Cameron is implementing a highly tactical and limited election strategy here, aimed at mopping up as many London & South-East marginals as possible, in order to deny Brown a majority.
He is not aiming for 125 seats as Howard tried to do in 2005. He knows that would be futile. Lord Ashcroft pointed out as much in his 2005 book “Wake Up and Smell the Coffee” - which I doubt many Labour MPs have read.
My guess is that he is pouring resources into the 50 seats he is most likely to win - again as suggested by Lord Ashcroft.
This would; (a) Cause a highly unstable Labour 4th term government, even if he wins only 30-40 seats, and, (b) prevent the modernisers from being ousted and maintain Cameron in office by an adequate election result, thus ensuring the Conservative Party continues to change and becomes completely competitive next time.
Excellent thinking.
Apologies. Putin is heading the Party’s list for the Parliamentary elections, not standing in the Presidential elections ( yet, I suppose). Will he be PM to a Presidential cypher?
101
‘I certainly do not withdraw my criticisms of the major planks in your 2005 election manifesto.’
Didn’t you attend last week’s Labour conference in Bournmouth?
Your new leader confirmed (with the exception of lower taxes) the introduction of the remaining 2005 Tory manifesto pledges.
-Border police
-Cleaner hospitals
-Matrons
-Controlled immigration (with British jobs for British people)
-Stop and search
-Foreign criminals to be thrown out (although everyone knows that not possible)
Glad to see these policies finally being implemented and impressed at the high regard and iconic status that your leader has afforded to Margaret Thatcher.
Apologies for being slightly off-topic, and also if this has already been discussed over the last few days.
I understand (from someone who received a call) that Labour’s polling/testing the water in the marginals over the w/e was carried out using automatic phone messages. “Press 1 for Labour” etc. I guess. Is this likely to be done for general canvassing too? Are the other parties using it? And how is such a technique going down?
I’m sure some of these tax proposals from Osborne will carry some popularity - that’s all that matters - but the bottom-line is are voters prepared to roll the dice on the economic stability and the, relative, occupational security they, and the country, have came to enjoy?
101
“But outside the south it’s not as relevant.(IHT)
So I’m stitting here in Northern Stoke on Trent looking at all these houses advertised for £300,000, £400,000 and more and imagining it!
Might be true for Hull (who’d buy a house in a flood plain below sea level?)… or Mosside in Manchester… or maybe the grottiest parts of Liverpool.. but Solihull, Southport, Wilmslow, Edinburgh , Chester,York, are just a few places outside the South where I know off the top of my head average prices are probably well over £250k… and there are bound to be lots more…
120-Correct. He is heading the United Russia list in the forthcoming Duma elections. Russia to become a parliamentary, as opposed to a presidential, democracy?
Is there any point in having a Conservative Party, Casino Royal (119), when half of Cameron’s policies are a dead crib from the Lib Dems, and the other half are straight out of the Tory Headbangers’ Handbook?
126 Reply to you at 48
127 - As someone said yesterday, the tories are trying to take the place of the lib dems, labour are trying to take the place of the tories and lib dems are trying to take the place of labour.
It’s no wonder people don’t bother to vote, they haven’t got a clue about what is what anymore!
35 “Or could this give GB an excuse NOT to call an election?
24-Since when should the rights of a minority be trampled over? Except when governed by Labour of course! Imagine if you replaced agriculture by ethnic minorities/homosexuals/etc and GDP by population. What response do you think you’d get from the great and the good? Point should be that F&M caused Saint Tony to delay in 2001 so there is “previous”.”
Several points here:
1. The 2001 F&M outbreak was far more extensive than the current outbreak and anyway it had a negative impact on tourism which was far more negative for the economy (in fact someone worked out that taking the impact on tourism into account, agriculture had a net negative impact on GDP that year) this is not the case with the current outbreak. In any case I believed that Tony Blair should have called an election anyway.
2. A profession is not the same as sexual orientation or ethnic origin. There is no human right to claim massive subsidies from the taxpayer while paying no attention to basic health and safety.
3. An election will have no impact on the spread of F&M, unless modern electioneering involves transport of livestock around the country.
Besides what on earth has happened with this economic stability before tax cuts Cameron and Osbourne have been banging out this past two years or have they just been talking out their silver-spooned bottoms?
Can a £25,000 tax on non domiciles really pay for this increase in the inheritance threshold from £300,000 to £1,000,000? That is quite some leap
124 - That is EXACTLY the point. The million is the red-herring. Those that benefit are any whose wealth is - or aspires to become - above the IHT threshold. Which I suggest encompasses a tidy chunk of those folk who deserted the Tories for Blair’s Labour.
Labour politicians who sneer at this move are going to regret doing so. A tax cut of a few pennies off income tax is not as relevant to those planning to look after their children as a saving of many tens of thousands in tax on their death. And don’t forget the people who benefit most - the younger generation who are going to keep the extra cash when their old folks keel over. When that sinks in with them, that is alot more potential voters than you would immediately think of from this announcement.
How long before Brown co-opts this idea for himself? Then Nick will be telling us what a fantastic idea he though it was…
No idea, Punter (127 and elsewhere). I am not Lord Rennard.
And I detest both Cameron and Brown. Equally? No….. It varies from time to time in both directions. Is that answer enough?
130 - I trust that Osborne has done his sums on this and short of an outbreak of bubonic plague cutting down 3 times the number of householders than normally die in a year with an estate in the threshold, then from what I see it works.
113 Correct stjohn - seems you are re-assessing your own book on a 2007 GE. I’m really puzzled now, so will probably sit tight. Very much more money now being placed on this market: £10K+ per day.
I still agree with you that 2010 remains a seriously good bet at 8-1 or above. At some stage and probably sooner than later (assuming no 2007GE), like any other long term Government, this one is going into serious negative territory in the polls and may stay there for an extended period - in which case with every passing month, the odds on a 2010 should shorten.
Also, should there be no 2007 GE, I would expect the spreads on Labour seats to reduce and Tory seats to increase by between 10-15 seats in both instances over a short time frame.
It is pretty likely that the inhertance tax proposals will appeal mainly to people who vote Tory anyway. The ‘Nomdoms’ will this tax, ‘Squeeze them till the pips squeak.’
So the, ‘autumn election’ is now at 60%, that means I’ve gone from, heretic to orthodox in a few weeks. I hate that, I’ll have to think of something to restore my heretic status. I know! the Tories are going to win by a landslide.
129-I somehow suspect that if Labour leaning voters were being, in effect disenfranchised, you would be up in arms. Why are some voters more eligible to protection than others?
As regards 3, I’m sure modern electioneering in 2007 is similar to that in 2001. So, why the difference now?
130. Sounds like a bit of an insult to normal working Brits. You don’t have to be earning that much to pay £25,000 in tax on PAYE so it sounds like a positive encouragement to non-doms.
I’m sitting tight Peter. I’m only a small loser on 2007 and a big winner on 2010. Neutral on 08 and 09.
Jack W Presumably the Tory IHT proposals have won you over. Put you down as a pledge shall I?
Didn’t Brown once consider imposing such a tax on non-domiciles. If so, I suspect he did not because he was concerned that doing so would have a negative impact on the economy. No point in him defeating his object, I guess - a “strong economy”, that is.
135-I tend to agree that IHT appeals as much to people who are currently eligible, as to those who aspire/believe they will be in the future. Since this is mainly underpinned by house prices it would seem short of a house price crash this should be a vote winner. On the other hand, a house price crash will destroy Labour…
Admit to some wobbling. I was always doubtful of a 2007 election, but have wobbled. I still think it unlikely, but..
101, 102 & 119. Yes there would be a greater impact from the I.Tax changes in the South but don’t ignore the fact that some Tory target seats further North including 1/2 in Scotland are fairly affluent.
Presumerably Brown will probably later “copy” and reduce the scope of I.Tax?
Northern Rock below £1.50 - is it still a Roger buy tip ?
143 If so it’s got further to fall…..
138 stjohn - Pretty much the same here: £550 profit if 2007, £270 profit if 2010, £160 loss if 2008 or 2009. The ideal for me would be to balance off the latter two to break even by selling 2007 at odds-on over the next 24-48 hours if poss.
121. Nick Palmer’s tacit approval of Brown’s brownshirt posturings and dogwhistles certainly doesn’t sit well with the way he waxed lyrical about his ‘idealistic’ communist past on this site not so very long ago.
Perhaps its unfair to expect anything else though - after all lots of former ‘communists’ in eastern Europe have been happy to embrace completely different ‘views’ to those they once espoused, in order to remain in power.
126
‘Is there any point in having a Conservative Party, Casino Royal (119), when half of Cameron’s policies are a dead crib from the Lib Dems, and the other half are straight out of the Tory Headbangers’ Handbook?’
‘Is there any point in having a Lib Dem party that’s been continually in opposition for over 90 years?
Eh, Flashman (143)? Is not Northern Rock now on £30.50?
135 “It is pretty likely that the inhertance tax proposals will appeal mainly to people who vote Tory anyway.”
Wrong. I think Osbourne has correctly identified that capital taxes are a bigger issue for anyone with net worth over £250,000 than chipping a small amount off income taxes. For many people, their salary may not have risen much above inflation in the last ten years. However, people perceive that the times have been good under Gordon - many people have become far wealthier than they were a decade ago. But this is almost entirely through rising property values. Now they risk losing that new-found wealth to the Government when they die. So Osborne is protecting that gain - protection which Gordon is not offering them.
It doesn’t require him to rubbish the handling of the economy for the past ten years - because that doesn’t ring true. But he is offering to allow people to keep that gain for their families, their friends, their favourite charities - whatever. Gordon is going to take a big chunk of it away from them. Very canny politics, mark my words…
148. Only if you are living in a time warp
148. I think you’re looking at the amount they’ve lost today!
IHT worries old people who are also more likely to vote ?
141
I do not expect a house price crash, when it comes, when not if, to have the same political effect as last time, for these reasons.
1. Its happened before.
2. Everyone is expecting it.
3. Its long overdue.
4. Labour is not as associated with the, ‘property owning democracy’ as much as the Tories were.
Back in the eighties, Bob Beckman an investment expert, had a programme on LBC. Beckman started prophesising a property crash in about 85. When it didn’t happen, callers would taunt him with the fact. Backman’s reply was, ‘That’s like the man who jumps off the Empire State building and as he passes each floor on the way down, you hear him say, So far so Good’
A crash is inevitable, when it happens is the only question.
149-At least when I did my articles, all bequests to charities (and political parties!) were tax free.
148
Last trade for NR was 148p.
If Brown and Darlng can, economic conditions permitting, they should aim at having a progressive rate of inheritance tax at two rates, 20% and 40% or, alternatively, they could aim to levy 20% on primary residential property and 40% on all else.
The fact is that many people who are property rich don’t necessarily have high incomes. And the ability to pay should be a fundamental principle.
&nb