So what about “The Great Tory Fight-back”?
October 1st, 2007
Will the election betting markets move the other way?
By the standards of the media coverage of the past three months Team Tory must be breathing a sigh of relief after day one of the party conference in Blackpool. As the TV bulletins and this morning’s front pages show the party has been commanding attention and Cameron’s phrase “The Great Conservative fight-back” is being picked up.
Also there has been no really bad internal news. If there are dissident voices in the seaside resort they are not being focussed on by the media and, as yet at least, there hasn’t been a high profile defection.
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For this they can thank Gordon Brown. The threat of an imminent general election seems to be doing wonders for party unity.
The Sunday polls, particularly, Mori, have slightly taken the edge away from the atmosphere of disaster. The gaps are still large but not on the scale of the double digit deficits that greeted the party on Saturday morning.
Everything now depends on whether the unity can continue and whether there are decisive moves back to the Tories in the polls. One of the things about the scale of the YouGov and Populus 11% and 10% Labour leads is that it does not take that much change for the narrative to develop that Cameron has some momentum behind him again.
This will affect the betting and I expect changes in the general election timing markets and the spreads on commons seats. A significant Tory poll recovery, such as YouGov down to a 5% Labour lead, would cause punters to bet on the party again. As part of my short-term trading I’ve closed my Labour seats buy position.
Mike Smithson
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the thing is, the Tories may gain back some ground this week, they may even level things up (though thats a tad optimistic) the real question is what happens next week. Will we go back to the Brown media blitz, or will coverage be more even.
Coverage will be even…and probably fair. A close general election/hung parliament/GB getting close to that Canning record is a much better story than a Labour cakewalk.
Today’s piece in the Mirror entitled “He Cam, he saw, he cocked it up”, comparing David Cameron to Michael Foot, is the most excoriating attack on a politician that I can remember seeing
http://tinyurl.com/yp823q
The press appears to be going partisan and is already in pre-election mode. Any Tory fight–back might be a bit late.
The comment that an elector (a former Lib Dem switching to Labour)made about Cameron while I was canvassing at the weekend -“wally” –sums up the feeling.
3 - I think those sort of partisan rants fail in general terms. David Cameron is a likeable personality and is identifiably in the political centre. Comparing him with Michael Foot who was quixotic and moving away from the emerging consensus is laughable. I think the venom that the mirror and other Labour cheerleaders are showing towards Cameron probably indicates that they are worried.
3 - what did he say about Ming?
3 - this will be the same Mirror that never had a kind word to say about the Tories throughout their 18 years of the past Government - when they were racking up triple figure majorities. It hardly seems to move the electorate, however extreme their position.
The Mail and the Sun, on the other hand….
The press has gone into election mode - The Telegraph and Mail are back on side,the Sun is keeping its options open, the Mirror being its partisan self, the Guardian shifting back to Labour, after a period of disenchantment with Brown. The Times, like the Sun seems not to have decided.
A good poll for the Tories, not inconceivable, will be trumpeted as the Fightback succeeding. Still think Brown will come out of an election weakened.
4.I agree. I think Brown and Labour really want to smash him because they feel he is more of a threat to them than any other prominent Tory - and I think they are probably right.
7. “Keeping options open” would just about describe the Sun’s position, I suppose.
George Pascoe-Watson attempts a balanced story about the Tory conf but the title – “Cam’s Mission Impossible” shows that the Sun editorial team, and presumably Murdoch, must now be very sceptical about Dave’s chances.
Interestingly, Mr Pascoe-Watson does not mention the referendum in his piece, in spite of the paper’s campaign on this matter
See http://tinyurl.com/2e3s5d
5. He didn’t mention Ming. But he talked a lot about Blair and the war.
All we hear about Murdoch only “backing winners” does not stand up to scrutiny. His papers were pretty hostile to Kinnock in 1992 when all the evidence was that Labour might just squeeze in.
9 I’m sure that, while Pascoe-Watson might not like it, the sub-editors have “Camback King” ready and waiting for any good polling outcome. Wouldn’t be surprised by a “Who gets thrown out of the Big Brother House - You Decide” front page on November 1st/4th/8th.
With the election now odds-on - partially because nobody can see how GB can back down from it now, including me and I never thought we’d have an autumn poll - the media seem to have clicked back into mode. And that includes the total squeezing out of the LibDems! This kind of attack from the Mirror is, apart from predictable, as appealing as the similar ones from the great Hefferlump. I’m sure this turns more people off politics altogether!
First up, thanks to Mike for arranging Sir Bob’s visit here yesterday. I wonder if he had ever used one of these forums before… hopefully it will encourage others to “guest” here - whether pollsters or commentators (perhaps those on the weeklies might be more willing than those on the dailies, it might be a wee while before we have a Q&A with Jackie Ashley :lol:)
His answer to my question was as I expected - it seems a shame that no one’s willing to commission (English) regional polls which could provide betting opportunities among other things.
As to this week, of course the Tories will recover somewhat, three to five points I’d guess - but how much from Labour and how much from the LDs? Whatever, Brown will have factored it in already.
Suggestion for an article, Mike - the historic change in share during the campaign. My view is that campaigns help incumbents & my expectation is that what the Tories gain this week they’ll lose in the next three. A 7% lead on Baxter gives 380:200:40 (you can get a sensible LD figure by entering +5 “swing to LD” against the other two parties) - the Labour lead was only 3% last time. (Yes, I know the Tories think they’ve only one vulnerable seat, but life isn’t that simple.)
10 There is a huge difference between a potentially weak Labour Govt in 92 - Highly vulnerable- and the sort Blair was going to get in 1997 - thumping majority - all powerful and able to give as well as receive it. BTW Can you free my response to Tressage from your Spam filter
9 GPW has long beem as close to Brown as Baldwin was to Campbell. This should no surprise. GPW will not make the call however
14. I agree. And backing “popular” people is import for a popular newspaper’s credibility. If, as I suspect, most Sun readers think of Cam as a bit of a wally then the paper won’t back him. [To be honest, that was how some people came to think of Kinnock back in 92 and the Sun sensed this mood.]
I do rather like the notion of The Great Tory Fight-back - I think it mightjust resonate.
(over stirring music – the theme to “633 Seat Squadron”):
The British people will never forget the run-up to the 2007 election – Our Darkest Hour. The People of Britain had endured months of saturation love-bombing by the Brown Blitzkrieg Corps. All that stood between Herr Gordon rolling over Britain to join the massed European forces were a handful of plucky individuals willing to give their all. The Eton Heir Force….
Dressed only in regulation Cammo gear (dark suit, white shirt, dark tie for the Lords, tweed, sensible shoes, twenty-year old Barbour and pearls for the Ladies) they spread out from their perilously few bases in the south of England. Who honestly gave them a chance. But these people DID NOT KNOW WHEN THEY WERE BEATEN….
I do rather like the notion of The Great Tory Fight-back - I think it mightjust resonate.
(over stirring music – the theme to “633 Seat Squadron”):
The British people will never forget the run-up to the 2007 election – Our Darkest Hour. The People of Britain had endured months of saturation love-bombing by the Brown Blitzkrieg Corps. All that stood between Herr Gordon rolling over Britain to join the massed European forces were a handful of plucky individuals willing to give their all. The Eton Heir Force….
Dressed only in regulation Cammo gear (dark suit, white shirt, dark tie for the Lords, tweed, sensible shoes, twenty-year old Barbour and pearls for the Ladies) they spread out from their perilously few bases in the south of England. Who honestly gave them a chance. But these people DID NOT KNOW WHEN THEY WERE BEATEN….
“The comment that an elector (a former Lib Dem switching to Labour)made about Cameron while I was canvassing at the weekend -“wally” –sums up the feeling.”
I can’t wait for Cpt. Spaulding to talk to his taxi driver - then all the psephelogical evidence will be in.
fuel price increase hits today - could well provide a focus for discontent and give the tories a boost too - hopefully the end of election fever!
latest most talked about date - 8th november - watch turnout drop to 50%!
Meanwhile (with apologies to Jack W) a Lib Dem blogger is denying that Zac Goldsmith is going to defect to his/her party. Must be true, then.
http://www.theliberati.net/quaequamblog/
Cameron must keep this momentum going and if he does, the poll leads will drop by several points as the electorate realise he is the real deal. Lots of hard work still to be done, but the early signs on policy initiatives are excellent.
http://lettersfromatory.wordpress.com/2007/10/01/a-clever-carrot-on-a-stick/
I have been away from the internet for a day and a half, and I have just caught up with Bob Worcester’s interview. It was rather difficult and confusing to read, because (a) it was spread over two different threads (b) his answers did not indicate the numbers of the questions he was answering (c) there was various other chatter happening at the same time. This sort of website is not the best medium for that sort of interview. May I be so bold as to suggest that if there is a similar event in future, people should submit their questions on one day, so that a coherent list of questions can be compiled / edited / composited / censored / trimmed / arranged, and then the interviewer can come the next day and answer them more sytstematically.
It does seem from the Telegraph’s leader that they are back on side - hard now to see an election can be avoided without a big dent to Gordon’s reputation. I always thought 2010 was a certainty.
Things must be serious as even the likes of Graham Brady have come back on board, and Janet Daley’s attack is more feeble and half hearted than usual, even saving some of her bile for the left.
as Ave It hasn’t posted yet - my prediction
CON Gain Glasgow Eat
come on Gordon
[22] Your Stalinist tendencies are showing, John. Either that, or a hangover.
24. I’ve only drink about 38 units of alcohol so far (that’s my lifetime total) and no alcohol for months, so it must be the former…
Meanwhile …. Andrew Grice in the “Independent” says that the Cameron fightback is taking place amidst misgivings from Tory MPs that they can hold the line in a general election :
http://news.independent.co.uk/uk/politics/article3015280.ece
Whilst the entire westminster village and its attendant media and blogosphere is absolutely consumed with the kremlinology of will he wont he, what can captain cammy do to rescue his party etc etc most of the real world has hardly noticed. So when folk say “its too late to change his mind” “the press has gone into election mode” etc most voters wont actually notice if there isnt actually an election in November or a few commentators get worked up about the non election. The voters are more likely to notice petrol costing more than a £1 a litre (none of the euroloon crowd fancy a campaign to bring back the british gallon?) than a lot of froth on a subject that bores them at the best of times.
The tories poll position is almost bound to improve a bit this week though the underlying numbers probably wont change much. Unless GB really is in to big surprises there will be no decision this week, which leaves next weekend and an announcement next Monday. It seems all rather unlikely - how much parliamentary business would have to be got through before the dissolution on Tuesday along with statements on Iraq and the spending announcements. Despite all the excitement I dont think an election this autumn is going to happen just too many issues both political and practical.
Cameron can improve his poll rating without switching any voters - all he has to do is increase Con voters likelyhood to vote - as he will surely do this week - and the Cons will gain a fair few points.
Aint complicated.
Meanwhile II …. Bruce Anderson in the “Independent” says that Brown may regret calling an early election if the Conservatives start to appear this week like a government in waiting :
http://comment.independent.co.uk/columnists_a_l/bruce_anderson/article3015304.ece
Meanwhile III …. Janet Daley in the “Telegraph” says there’s nothing wrong with being Right or right or both ?!?
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/opinion/main.jhtml?xml=/opinion/2007/10/01/do0101.xml
Meanwhile IV …. Anne Treneman in the “Times” says the awful sound of silence at the start of the Tory conference was rescued as Cammy turned up the volume :
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article2563502.ece
Are the Tories committing a blunder (yes, another one…) by talking of a “fightback”? For goodness sake, they’ve been ahead in the polls for 18 months until July, Cameron has changed the party and been making the running for nearly 2 years. Brown gets his bounce, the polls look a bit volatile, and we’re now back in “underdog” mode. This just reinforces a view shown in the weekend polls that voters think the Tories will lose. Why are the Tories helping to make good that view by dancing to the media tune/Labour spin?
Nevertheless, I expect this week will kill off all talk of an Autumn election once and for all. Shame, as I reckon the Tories could have made a significant move forward just 18 months into this Parliament.
Meanwhile V …. William Ress-Moggy in the “Times” looks at the polls and sees trouble ahead for Brown :
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/columnists/william_rees_mogg/article2562997.ece
so from michael gove’s tour of radio studios this morning the great tory fightback is going to be based on compulsory school blazers….lol
May I inquire with the in-house tories on this one, there’s a constant tory poster narrative that Lab rely on central diktat and are against freedoms of the individual. On this basis, a proposed enforcement of school blazers will be opposed by the tories on here, should it not? After all, this would involve whitehall dictating to headteachers and school governors the exact detail of their uniform policy, with no local autonomy or choice. It also places conformity over individual choice for the pupils, who will became “problem” children if they don’t conform to strict dress codes.
Ok, so a straw poll of tory PBers, for or against?
Meanwhile VI …. George Parker and others in the “Financial Times” set the stage for a Tory fightback :
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/6b9c788c-6f87-11dc-b66c-0000779fd2ac.html
29
bruce Anderson, what a poltical oracle tham man is! Who can forget his wonderful prediction in the ‘97 election, ‘Why is it that apart from John Major, I seem to be the only person in this country, who thinks the Tories will win this election, not by much! but they will win it.’
19
I do hope that in view of the Tories conversion to, ‘Green’ they will be attacking the government, for putting two pence on the price of a litre of petrol; it should have been much more!!
3. That was a laughably poor article. The rantings of a demented hypocritical idiot.
He says; “In the end, it is not class that matters” and then proceeds to use Camerons class background as the basis for his attacks throughout the rest of the article! This from the paper that always precedes its description of the Conservative Leaders statement with; “Tory Toff David Cameron said..”
To the Mirror, it clearly *is* class that matters, but, quite frankly, who cares what they say? When have they ever had a good word to say about the Tories?
If Cameron plays his cards right, he could have the Sun, Express and Mail on side and a cautious endorsement from the Times.
That would be good enough.
Meanwhile VII …. the leader in the “Gruntfutock” looks at the prospect of Tories getting the blues at Blackpool :
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/story/0,,2180816,00.html
Meanwhile VIII …. Jackie Ashley in the “Gruntfutock” says that Cammy is now reliant on the right of the party :
http://politics.guardian.co.uk/columnist/story/0,,2180825,00.html
The ‘fightback’ and ‘Mission impossible’ stories are broadly beneficial to the Tories because they lower expectations.
In the same way the nonsense about ‘Stalinst,Autistic Brown’ helped GB seem a political genius for apearing vaguely human.
For me the fascinating thing will be how Cameron positions himself without fulfilling ‘Dave the Chameleon’.
He can’t dump too much of the Green stuff because of ‘Vote Blue go Green’. I’d expect him to balance any abscence of Green policies by a bit of hectoring of the ” we wont apologise for doing whats right by the environment…” line.
Meanwhile IX …. the editorial in the “Herald” assesses the prospects of a Cammy recovery :
http://www.theherald.co.uk/features/editorial/display.var.1724730.0.0.php
Meanwhile X …. Kevin Schofield in the “Herald” reports that Alex Salmond expects “spectacular” gains for the SNP in an early Westminster election :
http://www.theherald.co.uk/politics/news/display.var.1724854.0.0.php
Excellent piece by Stephan Shakespeare, on Conhome.
http://tinyurl.com/2uj6y7
Captures all you need to know about how voters react, to Governments, polling etc, compare it to that gibberish that Mogg wrote in the Times.
I think the great fight back is a terrible idea. Just restates the idea that the Torys are miles behind and have been taking a beating the last few months. Reminds me a bit of IDS and all that quietman nonsense.
Also it doesn’t mean or say anything.(Not that this is always a problem!)
Compared to Brown Cameron doesn’t come across as prime minister material
Northern Rock down another 15% today. Surely Brown couldn’t have leant on the Bank of England to “do whatever it takes to make sure NR doesn’t die during the Labour Party Conference”. He couldn’t be that cynical. Could he?
Meanwhile XI …. James Kirkup in the “Scotsman” says “prudence” is the key as Brown, Cammy and Salmond circle each other in a pre-election fandango :
http://news.scotsman.com/index.cfm?id=1564962007
44 The Tories have been taking a beating, but not for months - for over a decade. It is that fight-back which is being staged - the fight-back to power, not what has happened in the last few opinion polls.
The talk of a great fightback sounds like a football manager in the relegation zone after the transfer window has closed.
Mike, good article. Yes Gordon has done us a favour, he has shut the pratts up.
Also the media coverage is fairly positive as well.
I expect to see a good shift in the polls. I have to wonder if Gordon will lose his bottle now. If he lets the election clamour slide he is just going to look weak.
43 Agree remarkably perceptive for a Conservative . It is absolutely a route to defeat for Cameron to try and maintain that the 10 years of Labour government have been a disaster , the voters as a whole although they will not agree with everything Labour have done just do not agree with that . Cameron is following a strategy which may well enthuse the core vote but will scare off the floaters . If there is an insignificant Cameron bounce in the end of week polls the fight back to power will have fallen at the first hurdle .
49
But what if the polls don’t improve? Many Tories are basing their belief in a conference, ‘bounce’ on what happened last year, this is not last year!
Could this be why, Brown is ahead in the polls, is it, ‘Lifes good, don’t let the Tories ruin it’ These youngsters like Osborne what do they know?
http://tinyurl.com/3dc9fd
from today’s Telegraph
Conservatives might be helped by this year’s weather. Poor crop yeilds are feeding through into rising prices as we begin the run-up to Christmas, so offers of free money to “encourage” families might be welcome, particularly as poorer people face their own credit crunch as credit cards tighten their terms.
Meanwhile 8537… this election stuff is all a bourgeois sham anyway, and does nothing to liberate the oppressed masses from the systematic oppression and exploitation of the international imperialist bourgeoisie.
Marquee Mark.
Northern Rock will be taken over, I would have thought. The trouble is that it has 300,000 retail shareholders who will not be pleased at it being taken over at these levels.
What’s wrong with fight back? Everyone knows the Tories are behind so nothing’s lost by admitting reality.
Conference first day a modest plus. Wednesday is obviously key. I wonder whether Channel 4 News will do a YOUGOV quickie for Thursday’s edition. Good chance, I would have thought. Adam Boulton still adamant, I gather, that there will be no early election. Others taking a different view. IMHO it all depends on the polls this weekend. All this talk about a decision being taken at the weekend was just that; talk.
Boy if Brown bottles it the Tories will really be on a roll.
3: The Mirror believes that because its readers are Labour voters all they want to read is mindless attacks on the Tories day in day out.
50/51: There will be a poll bounce, the big danger is that the Tories will see that as ‘job done’.
34. Whats wrong with a blazer you satorial pygmy ?
Brown really has to go today or tomorrow, or he’s gifted the Tories unity of purpose, a possible poll boost and a stick to beat him with - for no real reason. Waiting until Parliament returns is silly because it gives time for any momentum he has to dissipate, gives the Conservatives time to regroup, and allows events to crowd in (as well as pushing the actual GE date well into November).
Going now would also allow Brown to cope with a Cameron bounce; it’d allow the Tories to win the first campaign week and to build on that, but Labour would still have the power to claw the momentum back, as the Tories did in 1987 when Kinnock started well. Besides, between the Conservative conference and Labour’s own campaign, poor old Ming wouldn’t get that much exposure.
Interesting angle in the Telegraph today:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/opinion/main.jhtml?xml=/opinion/2007/10/01/do0102.xml
That an election now would cost ~£100m and would effectively represent Gordon Brown spending that tax-payers money for Labour’s own electoral advantage. So much for Mr Prudent. Sun headlines in the campaign outlining what could have been bought instead with £100m?
Also interesting that it was reported over the weekend that up to 1,000,000 normal voters may currently be missing from the electoral register because it is at its least up-to-date position in the cycle. And that local authorities are horrified by the idea of an early election because they wont be able to get postal votes done in time, and fear massive voter backlash when ballots dont arrive in time. And the complication that lots of boundary changes have only just come in to force.
These technicalities which for some reason people werent thinking about last week during the election mania could I think represent real ammunition for a hostile press if an election goes ahead now. It might be that talking up the election becomes seen as a tactical error, because once the realities are known the desirability fades, but the talking up now makes it look as though Gordon has been scared off rather than simply deciding “No”.
Having said that, the mania has had the effect of focussing minds and drawing out some Tory policy at last. Maybe the plan all along was to draw out Tory policy so it could be shot down over winter ready for the planned May ‘08 election?
56
There’s nothing wrong with a blazer, providing that’s what it becomes, when you set fire to it, hopefully with its wearer still inside.
As Darling reneges on the 100k guarantee on deposits we might wonder if that is not a better signal than most others? Lots of pisssed off people especially NR savers in the north of the country who believed Darling Gordon, perhaps enough to make it more fertile ground for the Tories?
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2007/10/01/cnsavings101.xml
If GB does call an election … it will surely be the first time an election has ever been called with 3 years to go and with the ruling party posessing a substantial working majority.
Political anoraks will not be pleased, but I’m not sure that the wider public will be so welcoming. Turn-out would surely take a big hit.
The statements from the Electoral Administrators simply beggars belief. What a stunning admittance of incompetence and their political masters in Govt who have over seen this.
1. They knew about the 95%+ boundary changes for almost a year in advance.
2. They knew what the postal vote changes were yet seem to have been ineffective in publicising their objections about the timing when they were first proposed.
3. Their adherence to an annual register when there ought to be a rolling register continually being updated is simply archaic. Where have they been sleeping in the process of modernisation.
Ironic that “Incompetence gives Brown his get out clause for a GE”.
61 - well if the Govt has done a cynical U-turn on this, then it will surely blow the Tory Conference off the news headlines won’t it?
Not that this would be a bad thing for the Tories - what a humiliation that would be for Labour, having made a promise it can’t keep just to clear the queues away from the Northern Rock.
Is Darling’s position now tenable? How would the resignation of the Chancellor fit in with a November election timetable?
May 2010 then…
You must not forget, HF (63), that we live in a Banana Republic….
Can anyone tell us how an English Grand Committee will solve the West Lothian Question? The only way to keep Britain united is to create an English Parliament that is equivalent to Holyrood, anything less and outright independence will follow within the next five-ten years. I am an English Nationalist committed to English independence, but I would like to advise all unionist parties that you should try the federal UK solution rather than ignore the current problems caused by devolution. Give all devolved parliaments more decision making powers as well.
I think we need to knock on the head firmly the prospect that Cammy is guaranteed a poll bounce.
The Lib Dems who usually enjoy a poll bounce from the increased visibility of their conference have had a poll bounce equivalent to that of all the residents of Broxtowe Cats Home hitting the pavement from a great height !!
If polls taken this week still show a Labour lead in the present 7-11% range or slightly lower then all the news of a great Conservative recovery will come back to haunt the Tories very badly and will accordingly lend Brown further strength to call a November 1st election.
61. There are lots of northern people p***ed off with Nu Labour, the problem for you is their votes will go the BNP/UKIP and EDP, not the Tories.
54 You think Channel 4 will wish to spend money doing Cameron a favour. Interesting theory……..
65 Re Guido. He is not Lib Dem or Tory but fiercely Libertarian, and wants both to concentrate fighting Labour. He urged CCHQ to put all resources against Labour and back off Lib Dem incumbents. Suggesting that Lib Dems thus freed could pay back by besieging Labour MPs. The flaw in his plan is that Ming with his prefernces would be as if not more likely throw any resources thus freed at Dorset West, Bournemouth East and Guildford, as Norwich South, Islington South and Watford I think
I still hold no election this year.
IF GB holds one, losses in Scotland to SNP are a given.
Some small gains England. So best case is a small increased majority imo and extended lifespan to 2012. By then we’ll have had a full scale recession…
So wait and see looks a prudent course.. Tories may melt down more, DC may be replaced by a bigger muppet..
No we don’t 67. The question is will it be sufficient. A 1-3 point uplift Brown can shrug away. Anything higher than 3 points will make him think
Is there going to be any political come back on LAbour over the hike in petrol prices? The Conservatives can’t really exploit it without damaging their ‘green’ credentials unless they can link it with the low growth/decline in real disposable incomes. But its not that long ago that a petrol price rise brought the country to a stand still and saw Labour crash in the poll, even when New Labour popularity was very strong.
67 Nothing is guaranteed, but the Conservatives did improve their position in 2003, 2004, and 2006, after the party conference. It’s fair to say that it is likely that there will be an improvement this time round, unless the party tears itself apart.
72. GO said this morning on Beeb 1 that any future green taxes would always be offset with a reduction elsewhere - clear blue water between Con and Lab.
Bob Sykes Darling is already trying to blame the Bankers Association’s pressure. He means they thought it through and saw that what was proposed off-the-cuff was dangerous as the banks would need to finance the Darling plan and that would mean lower rates for savers, and that means lower saving rates at a time when banks are moving to the traditional model that Darling has urged ( using deposits as the mainstay for loans).
What a mess this is becoming with NR unsellable without massive taxpayer subsidies, and the whole banking system now in turmoil about deposit guarantees.
Prudence wasn’t divorced by Gordon , she was murdered and buried in the cellar - if she existed at all.
68 May be, but the Sunderland local result shows what is possible for the Tories.
74. More like a muddy puddle.
Chrishio I think the Tories are going to stay on their message this week and allow Labour to get damaged by petrol prices on their own.
Punter I don’t share this view that the main media outlets are irretrievably biased aainst the Tories. Channel 4 likes to get talked about. A big story this week, perhaps the big story this week, will be can DC come back? By doing a quickie poll Channel 4 will be surfing this story just as they did the GB bounce story last week. There’s a symmetry about doing both leaders and IMHO there’s a good chance they will. We’ll see.
70. The problem for Brown is that so much momentum has now been built up for an election this Autumn that to back away now will badly blow back in Labour’s anti-English faces. The electorate will stop believing anything the government says and Labour will not be taken seriously again.
Brown got his expected bounce but the problem for Labour is that they should have dumped Blair back in 2004 when Brown could have taken over and secured his own mandate in 2005. This was Labour’s most recent greatest error and they’ve let the Tories off the hook and I would expect them to now gain quite a few seats up to about 50 in the forthcoming election which will make DC look good.
72 - I think if the Tories hadn’t swallowed the green agenda and were making the right noises about the increase (as in 2000) then I suspect Darling/Brown would have bottled it. But the pro-motorist lobby has been firmly neutered now, being portrayed as a bunch of right-wing UKIP-supporting nutters (which not all of us are!). So the Govt and the Opposition can come up with ever more ways of shafting the motorist, and do so with relish.
Sad that with 20-odd million people owning cars we cannot make a bigger impression. The Great Revolt of 2000 was clearly the high water mark.
42. Jack, interesting the line where Salmond uses the spectacular term: “I’m sure we’ll win seats off the Labour Party and I’m sure we’ll do spectacularly well in the popular vote and take seats from the Liberals as well”
“spectacularly well” in the popular vote which is different from “spectacularly well” in seats gains
Btw, SNP has selected the new Banff and Buchan candidate: Eilidh Whiteford
78 No but Channel 4 is not all media outlets is it. Look anyone who knows anything about it knows the way the wind blows there. Not for nothing is aka Guardian TV in many quarters. You maybe right and they may run against type for such attention. But I suspect they’ll only do it happily if some thing goes not very right for the tories between now and Thursday
79. francis. If Brown pulls back from the brink now it will appear weak and the Tories and the press will make hay. But it will blow over in time. Far better to have a short term embarassment than to risk squandering a perfectly good working majority and potentially 2 and a half years more time in power. In my opinion.
70 Madasafish. Presently 2 Labour seats are vunerable to the SNP as some voters in Scotland look to split election votes between Holyrood and Westminster polls.
71/73 Punter/Sean. I’m not saying a bounce will not happen but that the higher end scale of it shouldn’t be taken as a given … indeed if there is any give at all.
One other thing should worry the Tories. This “great Tory recovery” postion implies loser status that IMO never looks great in the voters mind.
83 I agree. If, by the weekend, the polls have pulled back to an average Labour lead of c.5%, then I should have thought a snap election would be a very risky thing to call.
I think the Sun is interesting. Sounds like an outline Tory manifesto without the green bits to me.:
“There are rich pickings for the Tories from last week’s Labour Party conference.
Labour’s spending spree on schools and hospitals has failed to deliver the goods. Education standards have barely improved and only a trickle of NHS spending has reached front line care.
Taxes are too high for struggling families who deserve to keep more of their own earnings.
Immigration has boiled over into a major issue, thanks to race relations zealots who have silenced all debate.
And there are plenty of external threats which require statesmanship…..
In what the gauche new Foreign Secretary calls this “scary world”, we need a robust Opposition, with the authority to speak as a genuine alternative government.
Mr Cameron has made a good start by promising to scrap stamp duty for first time home owners and cutting death duties.
We expect more voter-friendly policies to be unveiled this week.
But the clock is ticking.
The Tories have until 2.30 Wednesday afternoon to prove they’ve still got what it takes to be winners.”
10.Mike, you are correct on that score, and the Scottish Sun front page on election day in May backs up your point perfectly.
45.That might have more to do with the confusion over a possible U turn by Darling regarding the compensation for savers if the Bank goes belly up. In fact, just muddying the waters the way he is now doing does not fill me with confidence about the long term future of this bank. Is he rowing back because things are worse than initially thought?
63.HF, Douglas Alexander could not get the new checks and balances in place for the postal voting in May this year. Even now we are facing the prospect of them being implemented in England and Wales, but not Scotland in an Autumn GE. Says it all really!
81 Andrea. Indeed.
BTW …. I forgive you the Italian rugby team running Scotland close on Saturday and nearly giving me a connery in the last few minutes !!
James Purnell, Time Traveller
http://www.bbdo.co.uk/blog/archives/604
41
SNP within 5% of Labour reconfirms number received from Marcia last week and fairly close to Peter O’s numbers for Scotland.
Brown needs to watch his back.
No mention in the article of rumour of Salmond taking on Brown in Kirkcaldy.
84 Jack W that’s all I’m saying as well! See earlier post
87 TBH I doubt Murdoch gives a t$$$$ about the Scots elections. He backed Labour because at present they back Labour in the UK. That is way more important to him. Alex Salmond and the SNP is a mere gnat by comparison
90 I think that would be a seriously good idea for Salmond. The benefits publicity wise for the SNP would be big
re 86 yes but George Pascoe Brown forgot to mention the EC treaty. Does he know about his own paper’s main priority?
re 62. What about the 1923 election? The Tories had won in Nov 1922 with a majority of 70+ and called another one in Dec 1923 and lost 86 seats and their majority ushering in the first Labour government.
65.Tressage, funnily enough that is exactly the expression used by some in politics and the media when describing the disenfranchisement of 100,000 voters in Scotland in May.
90.Non starter, Andrea (I think) pointed out in a previous thread that the SNP have already selected their candidate in that constituency. I think the SNP are having a bit of fun with Brown and this whole GE ramping tactic.
91.I think you are wrong there, their front page was designed to make people think twice about voting SNP.
94 - Yes, although Baldwin had the excuse that he wanted a Tariff Reform mandate. And the by-election record that year had been pretty poor for the Conservatives.
OT: I’ve always thought that, in 1923, what effectively happened is that the middle-class Liberal vote recovered with a vengeance, only to find that Labour had permanently stolen the working-class safe seats which the Liberals needed for a majority.
83. I see your point. The problem for Labour is that they promised an EU referendum but have now changed their mind. They say they’ll be tough on immigration, so why did they let so many in. Labour wants to hold onto power as long as possible becuase it wants the deliberately inflict as much damage on England as possible. Undermine English culture by promoting Britishness, encourage mass immigration hoping that the indiginous English become an ethnic minority in their own country within decades. This was all planned a long time ago. Thatcher stood in their way but the 18 years of Tory rule was not enough. We need policies of counter-political correctness, new discrimination laws to outlaw anti-white and anti-English racism that Labour continues to force onto us. A centre right Tory government is not enough, only English independence with a pro English government will stop the rot.
95 Yes err it was. But I’m simply saying that it was but a bone from Murdoch to Labour, and not too important to him
96 The Liberals did very well among rural working class voters (43 out of the 86 seats with the highest proportion of agricultural workers voted Liberal). Their vote also recovered well among working class voters in West Yorkshire, but Labour continued to advance strongly in mining areas, the East End, and the North East, which had previously been largely Liberal.
This report was in the Sunday papers and now the Mail has it.
“Labour thinktank names immigrants who are a drain on the taxpayer”
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/pages/live/articles/news/news.html?in_article_id=484927&in_page_id=1770
Better go now, Flash, as the negatives might just pile up too high later.
The Telegraph business pages think so too:
“http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2007/10/01/ccom101.xml”
96 - I agree with your OT, I long thought that when in the early days Labour wanted to stitch up the electoral system to permanently exclude the centre-right that they could find themselves overtaken on the left and squeezed in a manner similar to the Liberals at the start of the 20th Century. Now I am not so sure but it would be amusing if the polls were way out because they could not pick up on something seismic like that.
83 I agree that GB will bottle it if the polls are ‘bad enough’. We will all have our different views about what that level would be but in my view a 4-5 lead ( which would contain an element of post Tory Conference bounce presumably)is a green signal. That is also Nick Palmer’s view. It may not be GB’s; frankly none of us know. He will, of course, be relying on many other sources of information besides the published polls.
Where I don’t agree with you is that the damage from a backdown based on DC’s performance would be temporary.
Gb’s very strong poll ratings are shallow at the moment. They’ve been built up very quickly and if they implode I can’t see him building them back up again.
Meanwhile DC would see his own ratings rise, probably substantially, and the confidence of his Party with it. There would be a permanent change in the political landscape as Nick Cohen.
Instead of the Press seeing the great clunking fist they would see a ditherer without backbone. He would pay a significant lasting price. But yes he’ll be prepared to pay it, fingers crossed, if the Tories do well enough this week.
It’s a strange position for a Government to be in, sitting their with the decision in a sense out of their hands.
Quite likely, Chris D (95). But “Banana Republic” was also the term used previously by the Learned Judge, making his ruling on Labour’s Birmingham postal votes fraud.
I have no objection in principle to Scotland’s being categorised as a Banana Republic as well as Birmingham. Pace Francis, equality of treatment is what the Union is all about….
Brown v Salmond in Kirkcaldy
Could we also be about to see Hain v Wigley in Neath…..
“Could we also be about to see Hain v Wigley in Neath” Drool….
However he’s off to the Lords…….
On Betfair, a 2007 election has drifted all morning, out from around 8/15 when I got in to work to 5/6 at the moment. Is Dave’s “fightback” causing a few second thoughts?
95. “Andrea (I think) pointed out in a previous thread that the SNP have already selected their candidate in that constituency”
No, I haven’t.
IMO Salmond running in Kirkcaldy can bomb for SNP as he did so much to establish himself as a serious political figure, stateman like (he’s First Minister afterall) and going for Kirkcaldy would look as playing political points more than anything
Btw, what is the source of SNP withing 5% of Labour in Scotland? The Herald doesn’t mention which pollster..is it a real poll? Or a subsample of a UK wide poll?
What would Salmond do if he actually won Kirkcaldy?
Well, I think the tories first day was good but not great. Stamp duty moves would be popular, inheritance tax less so.
Longer term problem is that this raft of announcements seems utterly disconnected to what has gone before.Green taxes are taking a back seat to tax cuts, localism taking a back seat to uniforms for all, and so on.
this is all being briefed as balancing, but could easily be used to make the point that Cameron doesn’t have any core beliefs, that underneath the nice rhetoric lies the same old party abd that you can’t trust cameron. i think this strategy could be powerful for Labour…
109 - Why all this talk of Salmond, it proves among other things that the SNP are not that great. It seems as if they are a one-man (pipe) band.
107.Sorry Andrea, but someone did post that yesterday.
Agree with you about Salmond making a mistake if he did so, but I don’t think a canny politician like him would risk that after just winning the job of first minister in Holyrood.
95 - Chris is correct - if you want to see the depths of negative campaigning then you should read the last 10 days of the Scottish Sun and Daily Record leading up to the elections of 3 May. Despite that we still emerged ahead.
107 Ewan Dow is the candidate in Kirkcaldy and Ian Dale’s piece about this is funny but won’t happen.
109 “What would Salmond do if he actually won Kirkcaldy?”
Join with the rest of Britain in laughing himself stupid for a week….
109 Well have a Party I’d have thought…..
107 Yes but he could turn it round to advantage by saying look Unionists are blocking our referendum, this is the best way open to show the Scots support it
61
‘As Darling reneges on the 100k guarantee on deposits we might wonder if that is not a better signal than most others? Lots of pisssed off people especially NR savers in the north of the country who believed Darling Gordon, perhaps enough to make it more fertile ground for the Tories?’
That must be a record in terms of Labour reneging on a promise less than two weeks!
When I went to remove my wedge from NR after the queues had gone,the cashier called the manager who reminded me of the government’s guarantee,I asked her what was the duration of the government guarantee a week,2 weeks a month,she didn’t know.
110 - Done to death over the last 10 years, can not see it washing myself.
112. Chris, I was sure it wasn’t me because I didn’t know who the SNP candidate was
re 106 where’s Peter the Punter when you need him? According to his cardinal rules on value I should be piling on lots more as I thought laying was value at 3/1. As it is I don’t have any finger nails left.
112 What Dale piece? It won’t happen, but if the SNP did want to do it be in no doubt their man would step aside for Alex immediately……
113. Marcia, Ewan Dow…didn’t he become the youngest council leader in mid 90s? I seem to have seen it mentioned on another forum weeks ago
Do you know if it’s still Annabelle in Ochil?
Brown has a weakness in that he has done very little besides gimmicks and promises since he became PM.
What he has done is going bad (deposit guarantees, blaming Merial who, because of lack of investment in the government compound are now restricted in how they can help control the Blue tongue outbreak, F and M which was not contained as he claimed, the physically crumbling gold stock he retained- did he sell the hard stuff- the retreat from Basra, the increasing casualties in Afghanistan, reneging on the manifesto promise for a referendum). The list is as long as a pickpocket’s arm.
The rest is all promises of reviews: of casinos, of 24 hour drinking, of a possible re-badging to make a ‘border force’ if the civil service recommends it, to build two aircraft carriers ‘if the contractual arrangements can be made suitable’ and so on.
If he won’t stick to the promise of the referendum why should anyone trust him to do these things.
So his real record of ‘achievement’ is as Chancellor and co-PM with Blair i/c domestic poicy. That record matches the action (as distinct from promises) he has taken since being PM. Action without studying the consequences: pensions, PFI, blocking real reform in public services, devolution.
There is so much material there that perhaps building a real and quality track record might be safer and that takes time. And is by no means certain of success.
On the other hand as the chickens are already booking their tickets for the journey home, he better go now.
Osborne was the best I’ve ever heard him on the Today Programme earlier - cool, well briefed, statesmanlike, witty, personable. Even told the presenter (Naughtie was it?) how to do his job when dealing with Gordon Brown. Ozzy rocks!
A few days ago someone said that if Osborne was a rock guitarist he’d be Angus Young. Not any more - he’s Steve Vai!
121 - yes he was the last Leader of Tayside Regional Council before re-organisation in 1995. Annabelle will be standing in South Perthshire and Ochil again.
84
‘Madasafish. Presently 2 Labour seats are vunerable to the SNP as some voters in Scotland look to split election votes between Holyrood and Westminster polls.’
Where is the evidence of this split as the recent polls putting the SNP within 5% of Labour are taken in a Westminster context?
119 - if you thought it was a value lay at 3/1, then surely 5/6 is even better?
This morning, I think there are just enough reasons that Gordon WON’T go to make it nearer a 5/4 shot, but I daren’t lay any more or my family will be going without presents at Christmas…
Marcia.
Is South Perthshire and Ochil the Lab/SNP marginal? Why does Goldie stand in such an unpromising seat where she risks getting squeezed by the SNP? Or have I got the wrong seat ( all too likely).
127 - scratch that, it’s evens now. Definitely no more lays for me.
128 It is that seat
Afternoon all,
Likely to see a narrowing of the lead after this week, unless infighting etc, as has been stated previously.
Tax-breaks for married couples are a BIG mistake. How can you shun the children of single-parents, widows etc? Are they supposed to get married toute suite to get the bribe? What if they divorce, will they lose the money immediately? Total nonsense.
Correct me if I’m wrong, but when - and where - has Gordon Brown ever said, yet alone hinted, that he wants an 2007 poll??
If my understanding is correct, it has only been his advisors and some minor ministers yapping about it. Coupled with a few leaks to the press from other excitable party hacks..
Yes, you may make the argument that they were “proxy” spokesmen for him, but on every interview I’ve ever heard Brown has been at pains to point out just how unnecessary an election is. He totally believes he doesn’t need one.
My guess is, he now feels he can beat Cameron whenever he wants to. He feels the public is convinced Cameron’s an inexperienced lightweight, whereas Brown feels he has established himself as a strong leader in the eyes of the public. But he want to establish a bit more of a track record first to demonstrate the “change” he is offering.
People say events could trip Brown up, but he’s dealt with disease outbreaks, rampant floods and economic turmoil over the past few months; completely successfully. They’ve even enhanced his poll ratings. What other future “events” could he possibly be scared of now?
His thinking must be that the longer he stays as PM, the more his image as a strong, resolute leader will be reinforced and the more the Tories will stagnate - undermined by the useful idiots in the party. People might still give Cameron the benefit of the doubt next month if he launches a snazzy campaign to match-up with some new, attractive policies. But will his policy platform look quite so fresh in 1/2 years time?
I remain convinced Brown will *not* call an election and will easily cite the fact he never hinted or suggested at one either in his defence.
128 - I assume Andrea is taliking about the other Annabelle - Ewing, rather than Goldie. Ochil and South Perthshire would be a serious Tory target if there were anything like a sustained Conservative recovery in Scotland, but we’re not at that stage yet.
120 - the Ian Dale piece
http://tinyurl.com/2zvjz9
128 - Are we getting mixed up with Annabelle Ewing who is standing in SP & O?
Punter
I suppose Goldie might resist the squeeze by the SNP better than any old Tory candidate so it could be said to be good news for Labour. However, given the state of the polls the SNP look very strong favourites to win the seat anyway which presumably the Tories want. If Goldie wants to show her undying commitment to the Scottish Parliament why stand anywhere?
I’m sure there’s a logic to her decision but I don’t quite see it.
Observer Thanks. My misunderstanding.
135 Because she’ll attract publicity for the Tories in Scotland and they’ll need it with the press going big on the SNP and Labour. Plus as 133 indicates it maybe a long term seat for the Tories, if they can retaina decent base vote. Goldie if she is standing there may help them do that
132 - “I remain convinced Brown will *not* call an election and will easily cite the fact he never hinted or suggested at one either in his defence.”
Indeed, on the Today programme a week ago (seems a long time since now…) he explicitly said that he did not need to secure a new mandate from voters and instead wanted to get on with the business of running the country.
If he does cut and run, I think it could be fairly asked of him: “What changed then, Gordon?”
132: Gordon doesn’t say things he hints and leaks so he can always backtrack if things go pear shaped.
126 John. The SNP enjoyed a 2% lead in the Scottish elections and are now 5% adrift in Westminster terms.
131. Redflump.
“Tax-breaks for married couples are a BIG mistake. How can you shun the children of single-parents, widows etc? Are they supposed to get married toute suite to get the bribe? What if they divorce, will they lose the money immediately? Total nonsense. ”
Rubbish, I’m afraid ol’ chap
This is about avoiding financial penalties for existing married couples where there is an incentive for them to split up, merely redressing the balance. Not a policy to p1ss off single mums - who will get exactly the same cash they currently do!
To say it’s otherwise is like saying reducing unemployment benefit shuns and penalises those out-of-work and is victimising the poor, whereas both parties agree it sharpens incentives to work.
This will help keep families together. Something I’d have thought Labour would agree with.
131
‘Tax-breaks for married couples are a BIG mistake. How can you shun the children of single-parents, widows etc?’
You obviously don’t know the raft of tax benefits available to single-parents its the married couploes that are being shunned together with a tax system that discriminates against marriage.
Every single survey that has been conducted has shown that children bought up in a stable enviroment with two parents perform better in school etc etc.
I guess a very inconvenient truth for New Labour.
£500 available to back 2007 at 1.99. Somebody is taking a view or seeking to cash in.
I meant Annabelle Ewing in my question to Marcia
I’m not sure about the argument that, if Brown blinks, the media storm will be forgotten in a few months. After all, nothing much he’s done since he’s became PM amounts to very much in itself; but they’ve culmulatively added up to a very positive picture for him. Bolting on an election now would spoil that. It’d make him look indecisive and capable of strokes of over-confidence. The psychological edge it’d give the Conservatives will be immense, and they’ll be ready and on their mettle in case he starts thinking about 2008. It’s not like the early years of the Blair government, when errors and cock-ups counted for little against the government’s reserves of goodwill - those reserves would be almost empty if it weren’t for the bounce, and there’s no reason to suspect Brown’s position will be stable leads into the future. Having started the challenge, it’s in his interests to follow through.
143. Another £200 at evens.