Will Channel 4 be doing an instant Cameron poll?
October 1st, 2007
Could such a survey be the decider for Gord?
For poll watchers last week’s Channel 4 News from the YouGov panel in the immediate aftermath of Brown’s speech was a great innovation.
For it’s always been suggested that the publicity that leaders’ speeches attract do give a big boost in poll ratings but I cannot recall a time when we have been able see this from reaction within little more than 24 hours while the coverage was still dominating the headlines.
It would have been great the week before to have seen whether an instant poll after Ming’s speech had had an impact on Lib Dem ratings.
I hope we can look forward to Channel 4 repeating the exercise in the aftermath of Wednesday’s speech by Cameron. It will enable us to compare like with like. Labour’s lead went up 5% in the immediate aftermath of Brown’s speech - what will be the scale of the Cameron effect?
For party conference season involves the media stepping up a gear in their coverage of politics and it becomes much closer to what we would expect in a general election campaign.
Mike Smithson
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Can anybody on here honestly remember anything about Ming’s speech? Other than that he managed to deliver it without dying.
1. Ming’s still alive? News to me…
Ming who ?
I think they might well do one as I posted earlier but GB will presumably wait for the weekend since the Tuesday deadline for October 25 will have come and gone anyway.
Maybe they did do one for Ming and it was as interesting as his speech.
Yes Ming is alive and in charge and I am one who does not want that changed.
I for one hope so… I’d also liketo see more detailed research on the perceptions of the three leaders. PB.com seems to believe that Cameron is a strong positive, but Bob Worcester seemed to suggest that camerons ratings were falling off a cliff.
I suspect that cameron is still more popular than the Tory brand, but I’d like to know more about where the three leaders are actually strting from in terms of public perception.
I don’t mean “who is the stronger at x” questions, but rather what attributes people associate with the three leaders, what qualities they think they’ll bring to office, how in touch they are etc, etc.
The US presidential elections do a lot of polling in this area, and I think we miss it here. Next week, when each leader has set his stall out, would be an ideal time.
Yokel - previous thread re Northern Rock.
The “fair value” price makes assumptions regarding the quality of their mortgage book - if they are having to resort to borrowing from the BoE, might it suggest that the quality of their mortgage book is not good enough to entice other banks lend them money at a lower rate ?
If so then perhaps the “fair value” price is more accurately reflected in the current share price ?
I for one hope so… I’d also liketo see more detailed research on the perceptions of the three leaders. PB.com seems to believe that Cameron is a strong positive, but Bob Worcester seemed to suggest that camerons ratings were falling off a cliff.
I suspect that cameron is still more popular than the Tory brand, but I’d like to know more about where the three leaders are actually strting from in terms of public perception.
I don’t mean “who is the stronger at x” questions, but rather what attributes people associate with the three leaders, what qualities they think they’ll bring to office, how in touch they are etc, etc.
The US presidential elections do a lot of polling in this area, and I think we miss it here. Next week, when each leader has set his stall out, would be an ideal time.
Yokel/Harry Flashman. re Northern Rock
I suppose politically there is the problem of the 300,00 retail shareholders. Their association has been screaming against any buy out until Northern Rock is ’stabilised’ which is not looking very likely.
I think they will. If theres a big increase it’ll be a big scoop for C4. If theres little or no movement, it’ll be an even bigger scoop. Either way, C4 will get plenty of coverage out of it.
I think Brown’s decision will be more influenced by the weekend polls, though. Once people have had a few days to digest Cameron’s speech Vs Browns.
7. That’s right. Northern Rock were known to use a particular trick to ‘massage’ the quality of their mortgage book. If someone was getting into arrears they would offer to increase the size of the mortgage and use the extra money for mortgage repayments. (Made possible because the value of the house had increased.)
It’s really a backdoor method of introducing what the Americans call a ‘negative amortization’ mortgage. When done in this way it can make it appear that the lender has a very low default rate even though the quality of the borrowers might be questionable. It’s also something that won’t show up until house prices stop going up, thus turning off the equity withdrawal tap.
1
‘Can anybody on here honestly remember anything about Ming’s speech?’
Wasn’t there something about going back to your constituencies and preparing for your P45’s?
8 Looking at Anthony Wells’ latest article, it seems to me that are an appreciable number of current Labour and Lib Dem supporters who do seem to think quite highly of Cameron - matched by a considerable number of Conservatives who don’t.
Mike, It would be good if they did. We could then compare like with like. That would be good.
14. And if they didn’t would it not be pertinent to ask why ?
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/7022676.stm
“…But Sir Malcolm was one of three MPs defeated in the Tory leadership campaign by David Cameron in 2005…”
Nice to see the Beeb are as accurate with their reporting as they are unbiased!
1-6- listen folks I am getting sick and tired with you being naughty about Sir Menzies. He is very well dressed, but urgently requires a Billy Hague hair cut. It would do wonders for his image.
flush gordon; chicken for october, november, december……..
The Tory fightback starts here!
#7 #9 #11 Northern Rock - if a true and fair value of the mortgage book is 98% of it’s book value (just a 2% discount) then they are ‘balance sheet’ insolvent, without any other questionable items on their balance sheet. Without the BoE loan they were already ‘cashflow’ insolvent’.
FT is reporting the fact that the Bank of England has put KPMG on standby (for an administration) for what could prove to be the most challenging UK insolvency in years is bound to raise eyebrows, especially since KPMG currently acts as auditor to the BoE.
I predict we’ll soon be hearing a lot of Labour spin along the lines of ‘Ha ha, by pretending that an election was imminent we’ve made the Tories reveal their policies earlier than they’d have liked’. I reckon Gordon’s got cold feet and the task of inventing a plausible excuse is under way.
18. Is there a risk that a decent proportion of the mortgages are virtually worthless leaving the BoE out of pocket ?
For those posters missing Ming from their screens, seeking confirmation that he is still with us.
http://dizzythinks.net/2007/09/what-inspirational-leader.html
That really is an official Lib Dem campaign video.
17
Me too,however,a no 1 haircut wouldn’t be much use as there’s not much to cut,whereas a gold earing and some tinted shades might do the job.
At least Ming did not vote for the Iraq war. Unlike Cameron, and more so Brown he does not have blood on his hands.
Mike Smithson
19: That spin could easily be countered with ‘Did you know that Gordon Brown’s speech was pinched not only from Al Gore and John Kerry but from the BNP?’
http://timesonline.typepad.com/comment/2007/10/on-the-12th-of-.html
24 fair point. the disgrace of supporting Tony’s illegal war is a stain on the party.
#20 Harry, I’ve no reason to believe it’s that bad, although the shareholders may be sitting on 0.
Mike.
That isn’t going to save your seats in 2007 or whenever. Is there no strategy for ‘fighting back’ to coin a phrase? At the moment the LDs seem to be sleepwalking to disaster. I know that your incumbents should resist the tide somewhat but there comes a point when seats will fall anyway in significant numbers.
RE: Difficulties with postal voting as mentioned on the previous thread.
Dunno if this was mentioned on that thread as i can’t be arsed to wade all through it, but does everyone realise that there is another series of strikes looming by postal workers?
Posties will walk off the job at noon on Wednesday, and not return until noon on Saturday and then again at 3am on Monday 8th ’til 3am on Wednesday 10th of October.
Until then there is a campaign to ‘do the job properly’ effectively a work to rule which will inevitably build up a backlog of mail.
From the week starting 14th of October, there will be weekly functional strikes IE, one day post offices, next day collections, next day mail centres, next day deliveries, etc., etc. to continue every week until the current very bitter postal dispute is resolved.
This will make postal voting impossible, unless of course Brown wants to step in to the dispute, at the moment he is acting as if the Royal Mail is nothing to do with him despite the fact that it is still state owned.
27 Excellent point.
Lots on the previous thread was about whether the Tories are in power in important local authorities. Well they are in this one - Birmingham - but I was amazed when checking whether GB did stand in 1979 to see the Tories performance in Brum in the 1979 GE. They won 6 seats and came within 500 of winning a 7th. Even if they do as well as in 1979 whenever the next election is they won’t win 6 Brum seats so where have all the inner-city Tories gone?
11. That trick - essentially capitalisation of arrears - is something normally associated with dubious banks in the developing world. Incredible it could be allowed here - or perhaps not for anyone familiar with the regulatory authorities…
20. If that happens, it will be the taxpayer who coughs up, not the BoE. What health and education spending will Labour cut to fund such a bailout?
23.Mike, did Ming have to be persuaded to take Kennedy’s line on this? Cameron says he had misgivings, but was persuaded otherwise and voted with the Tory leadership. I never heard any rumours to back up Cameron’s claim, other than what he has said himself. But I have heard rumours that Ming was all for supporting the government on this issue despite misgivings?
Don’t get me wrong, Ming and the Libdems were vindicated on their stance on this issue, whilst the Tories carry the can with the government on the decision to go to war. But I have always been curious about it, I would be surprised if he had been in favour of standing by the government on this.
re 27 I was thinking that a few days ago. I presume that if it happened during an election campaign then the government would step in to deliver the papers.
Correction to post 27
The next strike is noon THURSDAY to noon Saturday.
4: You’re not expecting an announcement tomorrow for October 25, then?
34. Do you know if the legislation gives any cut-off time during the day for the calling of an election (eg office hours), or do we go on the working assumption that if Gordon hasn’t said anything by the early evening news, it’s not happening?
34 I wish Nick - despite your acceptance of the 2005 tory manifesto and your claim that tories don’t want a poll I say
Lets Ave It!
Fair point Nick! Is that what you’re hearing? Another hour’s light I suppose.
I’ve rather bought the argument that GB would wait for the aftermath of DC’s speech although I think there are distinct dangers in doing so if he ends up bottling it. A GE announcement tomorrow means no reconvening of Parliament which would mean no HOC Iraq announcement, no HOC announcement on schools and hospitals etc. I suppose these could be done outside the HOC but the Iraq one in particular doesn’t lend itself to that. There’s also the half term point.
Have you cleaned that lady’s bollard yet?
19.
Labour supporters like Benedict Brogan?
http://broganblog.dailymail.co.uk/2007/10/have-tories-jus.html
re 36 Day zero is the day of the royal proclamation and issuing of writs. If Gordon can get Jack Straw’s staff to stay up late and issue 650 election writs then I imagine it could be any time.
I presume that Mr Straw realizes that as Lord Chancellor it’s his job or is that something else no thought through in Labour’s attempts to bodge the constitution?
re 37 in an election campaign the civil service are scrupulous to play by the rules and will not be making any decisions which could be conceived as political.
BBC six o’clock news looked good for the Tories - first ten minutes was all on setting out Osborne’s policies. No negative snide comments. Perhaps they are getting the message.
Osborne and Cameron will be happy with it, I’d reckon.
27 ROBBIE BOX and postal strikes, it just gets more surreal.
26 Blue Moon, “Lib Dem sleepwalking”, the fact that the Lib Dem blogs are almost completely ignoring the threat of an electoral meltdown of a 1/2 to a 1/4 of their MPs is a puzzle. I posted elsewhere that the evidence from 2005 is that in Con/LD battles, the Conservatives gained more seats (nett 3) even though there was a bigger uplift in LD vote share. That indicates that Conservatives are getting better at campaigning.
If we have a GE now, the vote share % will be significantly in favour of the Conservatives in Con/LD battles which with better campaigning may overcome some of the historical Lib Dem advantages in defending seats.
Notably no talk of a decapitation strategy in Lib Dems.
Picking up something on the previous thread and finding no trace on Google, it’s rather poor that there’s no revised returning officers (England) order. This means in effect that if the election were called now, we would n’t know who the returning officers are for the new constituencies in England - the new boundaries have been published for some time.
40 - Missed it but did n’t they even have the usual “independent” expert saying the tax plans did n’t add up!?
Well the schoolboys are really out for Ming today:- a rather unpleasant and moronic chorus to kick off the thread, no wonder Mike was getting a bit testy with you “jokers”.
Apart from anything else, it rather misses the point. Remember that Ming is more popular than DC, so, if in fact the DC brand is now a nett negative then I suspect the “toffee nosed toff” label could be far more electorally poisonous than the old geezer stuff you sling at Ming.
So boys come out from behind the bike sheds, or it will be double detention for the lot of you.
Lots of nasty Tories around today on this thread, I see. They never change, do they?
I thought, Chris A (29) that the Lib Dems were running Birmingham, with the Tories in support….. (which was why I did not mention it)….. Or am I wrong?
Cicero would you agree with the proposition that the Lib Dems campaigning advantage has been significantly eroded in many battle seats by the Conservatives improving their approach?
It is now 6.32pm on October 1st 2007 and there is not an inkling of any suggestion of a General Election in the offing from any of the news channels. Now, either this means that “pould” posted a lie online (heaven forbid that should happen) or that Gordon Brown has done the best confidence trick since someone tried to sell someone the Eiffel Tower.
41 HF. National share of the vote and Lib/Lib Dems seats do NOT equate :
83 - 25.5% = 23 seats
87 - 22.5% = 22 seats
92 - 17.8% = 20 seats
97 - 16.8% = 46 seats
01 - 18.8% = 52 seats
05 - 22.6% = 62 seats
Excellent headline coverage of the Conservative proposals on the BBC 6 o’clock news today, just like yesterday. This message will reach many, many people.
Masterstroke by Osbourne. Superb. I will eat my hat if the opinion polls over the next week don’t show a big improvement!
45. Tressage. I see you are a bit bitter about the fact the Conservatives are getting a good hearing.
Poor little diddums.
Go home and cry to mummy
44. There’s certainly a fair bit of truth in that, but I wouldn’t dismiss the jokers, as you put it, quite so readily. The joke wouldn’t work without a degree of truth behind it to embellish.
DC has poorer ratings than Ming because of what DC has been doing, not because of Ming. If Cameron can turn things around - and so far conference looks good - he could easily end up ahead of Ming again, and given time and a bit of luck, could get back ahead of Gordon as well. Ming by contrast doesn’t have his fate in his hands because he’s been invisible to all but the politically interested - not a charge that you could generally level at Kennedy or Ashdown during their respective leaderships of the Lib Dems.
I’m not Cicero, HF (46), but we do seem to share a similar point of view. Amazing coincidence.
I think the Tory approach has been vastly improved by throwing thousands of pounds of Ashcroft money at key seats. Not precisely what you asked, of course, but far more relevant.
I thought Nick Palmer said, a long time ago, that the Labour Government was going to tackle this outrage against the principles of fairness and democracy - but it seems they rather forgot.
45. “Lots”? I count 4 mocking Ming. And seeing that this site is supposedly “overrun” with Tories that’s a very small percentage of us.
But still, continue to tar all Conservatives with one brush. It’s funny that some people on the left detest prejudice so much but then exercise it so much towards people with different political views.
Casino Royale, are you really Rik, by any chance? You seem to be fond of eating hats….
51. It was ‘an outrage’ they themselves introduced by changing the rules to allow spending prior to an election not to count as far as official returns go. Besides, it’s not as if there haven’t been compensating effects such as the very significant increase in promotional material that MPs can send out at taxpayers’ expense - not party political of course, but still very useful publicity.
49 Casino. Might I remind you that the last time a PBer offered to munch on their bowler our very own Rik very nearly ended up with a rather unappetizing millinery deficit !!
It seems to be a strange quirk on the part of some of our Tory friends who post on PBC, Jack (55 - should be 104 really). But they never seem to take the necessary photos as evidence - still less post them, do they?
Tressage and Cicero (and Mike),
I mean Ming no personal malice. I trust he will get his telegram from King William on his hundredth. And I hugely respect him for his views on the Iraq war, which mirror my own.
But in terms of Westminster politics, he is presiding over a moribund party. It has no voice, it leaves no footprints. Fine by me. Let’s have a good old fashioned Labour-Tory ding-dong at the next election.
Let us hope that C4 do commission a post Cameron speech poll but could it not be a no win situation for the Conservatives . A boost would be expected for any party following a party leader’s speech well publicised but if there is no boost or a smaller one than Brown’s then the game would be up and Cameron and vthe COnservatives would be dead in the water .
Jack W thanks for the figs and I believe that for the past 20 years the Lib Dems have won every by election where they were in 2nd place at a previous election in a Govt seat. Except in Ealing Southall.
Another indication that the campaigning advantage is diminishing?
Can’t someone just ask Kellner if they are doing a poll or is that too simple?
56 tressage. In fairness Rik was saved by the rim of his hat !
Mind you …. I’d have given a whole shiny shilling for a Lib Dem win in Bromley just in order to see those photos !! ….. and I think most Tories would too !!
57 Bulls**t of course as do many Conservative posters on here you mean malice towards Ming and the LibDems as a whole . It is very noticeable that the worse the opinion polls are ,the more acidic and nasty become the rants on here of people like yourself .
Mark Senior I believe that 220+ MPs (10%+) would retain Cameron, under that the game would be up. 240+ (20%+) would be progress.
What number of LD seats based on the present 63 would you site as
1) Retaining Ming? 10% = 69
2) Real Progress? 20% = 75?
66 That refers to 61 numbers seemto be going awry .
Well the results of any such poll will be interesting, if nothing else.
63 HF. Not sure about that.
Almost, HF (59) - but slight amendment.
“…for the past 20 years the Lib Dems have won every by election where they were in 2nd place at a previous election in a Govt seat…” ADD ….”where there was somewhat more than a rushed and cramped three week campaign”.
The proposition then still holds good. Lib Dem campaigns are still the best and most effective there are. As you will see shortly in Lib Dem marginal seats (held and challenged) where there has been a decent Lib Dem campaign….. despite the Tories’ throwing in their Ashcroft millions.
Thanks for the expression of lack of personal malice, Mark (57). One or two ageist comments directed at Ming may be acceptable - ten in a row aren’t: they are very tedious, and that is unforgivable….
34 - There is actually evidence that Cameron had misgivings, for what it’s worth. What he wrote at the time:
http://politics.guardian.co.uk/columnist/story/0,,915929,00.html
67 HF I doubt whether Cameron would survive with less than 240 or so MP’s but thst is a matter for your party . You are asking the wrong person re Ming , as I have stated on here many times before , IMHO , there should be a new leader early next year whether there is a GE this autumn or not .
61 - Marquee Mark, just for clarity, what exactly were Campbell’s “views on the Iraq war, which mirror [your] own”?
32. Lots on the previous thread was about whether the Tories are in power in important local authorities. Well they are in this one - Birmingham - but I was amazed when checking whether GB did stand in 1979 to see the Tories performance in Brum in the 1979 GE. They won 6 seats and came within 500 of winning a 7th. Even if they do as well as in 1979 whenever the next election is they won’t win 6 Brum seats so where have all the inner-city Tories gone?
Chris A
Demographic change or “white flight”. If you walked in Brum city centre in 1979, you’d have noticed (if you are a man who notices such things) that it was 5-10% coloured - today, it’s 55-65%. I’m sure this is a big factor in the decline of the Tories in the big cities.
I think that Cameron would probably survive even if they lost some seats, it’s the Kinnock choice, things would need to be done and it would be pointless just changing leaders time after time. Down to 170 or something and he might go but higher than that and he’d probably stay and fight whoever (Fox?). The tories would be in an ideological fight to the death and I don’t think that he would back away from it.
72 - I don’t see any reason why Cameron should survive 240 MPs. If the Tories get 240 then the chances of Labour getting a majority are slight for a start. The LibDems will be going backwards.
Also if it is after a 2007 election then the Tories will have only lost a maximum of 2 years whilst gaining 40 seats.
*shouldn’t survive
Are Con ahead in the polls yet?
Perhaps ‘Ave its election special’ will tell us….
66: Better LD poll results would cut Labour’s lead.
I hope the Tories here enjoy a few days gloating about what they imagine to be a “fightback”.
As a non-Conservative, I note that their joy is undiminished because Osborne’s first tax cut is to benefit the already better off minority. If there’s money around, why not reduce income tax on the lowest paid, or boost state pensions ?
What is the politics of looking after your own by allowing the first million (that’s £1,000,000) to be free of inheritance tax. How many floating voters are the winners of this largesse ?
80-I guess most. I doubt many floating voters have assets over £1m, so most would pay no tax. A sizeable minority must have assets over ~£250K. (or whatever IHT limit is)
59. JackW.
It is a risk, I grant you. But one I am happy to take!
Maybe I should order the requisite trilby now?
Re 55 Tressage, thanks for the comment on campaigning.
You say it was all down to Ashcroft money…..
First example of Accs I could find in a Con/LD fight was the following, this is what Eastleigh Lib Dems and Conservatives total expenditure was in the 2005 calendar year including the election. The Eastleigh Conservative candidate was supported by Ashcroft. The Lib Dems actually spent more.
Lib Dems 2005 = £78,443
Conservatives 2005 = £70,191
The Lib Dems can hardly plead poverty here although there was a massive decrease in the Lib Dem majority.
73 and 61 - O/T, I’ll answer my own question because I’m sick of hearing how “right” the Liberal Democrats were about Iraq. They didn’t oppose war with Iraq; they opposed a war without a second UN Security Council mandate.
In other words, they weren’t opposed to war on principle but because it failed to secure the support of Jacques Chirac (the Russians and Chinese can always be ignored on these things, like they were - including by Menzies Campbell - over Kosovo).
He didn’t oppose Trident renewal; he thought the decision was “premature”. His party equally thought the knighthood for Salman Rushdie was “badly timed”. I’d like to think the Orange Bookers will introduce principle to this cynical party. But, until then, let’s call Menzies Campbell and company what they are: cowards.
82 Casino. Would you like the details of some decent hatters ??
Northern Rock are down another 25%, making their 400,000 private share holders (mostly in the North East) even more fed up with NuLabourLite.
83. All due to the excellent Conor Burns.
Only UKIP scuppered him..
87 Casino. That’s FPTP for you !!
The Conservatives are getting a very good press on the news this evening. Presumably the papers tomorrow will give them an equally good billing.
Looks like the Tories have got thier conference off to a flying start. Still plenty of time for someone to start backstabbing, but right now I think its looking like a good week for Dave.
Well Mr Chip @ 81
One man’s cowardice is another man’s thoughtfulness. Ming and the Lib Dems were right over Iraq, right that Trident renewal wass premature, right that Rushdie’s knighthood was badly timed.
What are your principled opinions on these matters ? No doubt you see every political issue in black and white when most of the time such things are only grey.
73 - I took Ming’s views on Iraq at the time to be that he did not believe that we had authority to undertake regime change in a sovereign nation, certainly not without a further UN resolution. That resolution was not obtained and so our actions had no legitimacy under international law. He expressed these views often, especially on Newsnight, as I recall. And it was his view that the weapons inspectors should have been given more time, but that they were not allowed to do their job, because their finding no weapons of mass destruction would rob the Coalition of the Willing (remember them?) of any justification to enter Iraq.
And Iraq needed to be entered because of the oil. Bush was intending to secure America’s strategic natural resources for the next fifty years. Production in Mexico was about to decline sharply, with concerns that Saudi production levels could not sustain demand required by the US as well as emergent economies in China and India. (Although I don’t know whether Ming shared my take on the oil angle…)
49 no you’re quite right. Tories haven’t had sole power since the 80s - it’s just the lack of Tory MPs I was wondering about.
Casino Royale @ 87
Then the “excellent” Conor Burns will be fighting Eastleigh again to finish off Chris Huhne, won’t he ?
Oh, but no. He’s run away and the Tories have just selected a lady from Essex. Do you think she’ll complete the job that Burns failed to do ? In your dreams I suspect.
re 74 which then suggests another question. Why is an ethnic minority voter less inclined to vote Tory?
90. God knows he needs it
re 74 also. What about Manchester or Liverpool then? I do notice such things and I wouldn’t have said that either of those 2 cities had a large ethnic minority presence.
It seems odd that Lib Dems complain so loudly about how nasty everyone is to Ming - when, as I recollect, they would churn out thousands of Focus leaflets trashing “hopeless” Iain Duncan Smith in a pretty personal way.
Or is Ming more worthy of reverence?
>91
AGreed on Mong
At the time of the Gulf War the US oil agencies were officially saying that Saudi could produce more oil and oil would fall to £30 per barrel and below.. So Officially the war was not foght for oil.
But as no-one believed their forecast and they did a 180 degree turn after that… and still were hopelessly optimistic…
The ex US Amabassador to the UN - Boulton- admitted the war was for oil…
Not the Conservatives finest hour… and it took only about 12 hours research to effectively establish WMD clains were 90% improbable…
96 - and the LibDems were so kind about that delightful old fella, Michael Foot. Respect oozed from their every pore…
Stewart Jackson @ 96
IDS was politically hopeless, and criticism of him was on that basis.
You and others may feel that Ming is also politically hopeless, but the criticism is far too often based on Ming’s age rather than his abilities, as if simply being over 65 is a “bad thing” per se.
That’s the difference.
The Tory Inheritance tax strategy:
I think many posters have missed the point in the strategy that Osborne has deployed. This is far better than anything Brown has done and is a mixture of giving hardworking voters a fair deal and painting Brown into a corner.
Firstly the Tax strategy on IHT is popular; it also brings a sting to Labour, that is they are opposing a measure that could be seen as being beneficial to a number of their key donor’s. Labour after all were saying that Lord Paul would bankroll an Autumn election – Is he not a non-dom? Although it is peanuts to him would Labour blow the funding from Lord Paul and perhaps the former donors: The Hinduja brothers (Of Mandelson fame) for supporting this measure?
Another aspect is the welcome proposal to scrap Stamp duty for first time buyers upto £250k, this will be funded from the Nom-Dom tax and helping various long term sick and Work shy Jobseeker allowance claimants back to work. I have come across the latter and private companies “encouraging” individuals back to work is the way to go from my observations: I posted a few notes on this. Again Labour oppose this as Brown in the first few weeks of assuming office scraped plans to implement this people empowering training. Why, do Labour oppose this: because the trade unions are opposed to private sector involvement with an existing public sector relationship with JSA claimants that are reluctant to look or take work. What is the point of Civil Servants administering the Unemployed when it is better to get claimants back into work.
So Labour have today left themselves open to the accusation that their campaign donor’s have a conflict of interest with policies that get the best result for the electorate!
“The ex US Amabassador to the UN - Boulton- admitted the war was for oil…”
Got a quote?
Tory IHT plan is mad… as it is it only affects a small proportion of estates. And no I don’t like the more modest LibDem one either.
I think they should have used their largesse a bit more wisely.
On the subject of Tory seat gains 220 is not anything like a 10% increase once you consider the boundary changes.
I’d go for the “South Dorset criterion”. If Cameron cannot win South Dorset then he ought to be and will be toast.
A Labour MP in South Dorset is and offence against god and man…
By the way call me cynical but has the government chosen today as a good day to bury bad news:
Petrol Tax up -
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/7021021.stm
Brown obviously designed the tax rise to co-incide with the Tory Conference.
Darling has climbed down on the Savers protection scheme 100K proposal. It will now be £35K @ 100%. Think this shows there will definatly be an election as it has been done today to sneak by the Tories who are concentrating their minds on the IHT!
96 Maybe Stewart in some LD eyes Ming has actually already ascended into saint hood?
93 Yet another david, most Conservatives who have commented on here regard Eastleigh as a lost cause if the GE happens this year. We need to be realistic not partisan.
Conor’s campaign did well with less money than the other side. Which adds a little credence to my view that the Conservatives campaign techniques are in some constituencies matching the Lib Dems.
By the way call me cynical but has the government chosen today as a good day to bury bad news:
Petrol Tax up -
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/7021021.stm
Brown obviously designed the tax rise to co-incide with the Tory Conference.
Darling has climbed down on the Savers protection scheme 100K proposal. It will now be £35K @ 100%. Think this shows there will definatly be an election as it has been done today to sneak by the Tories who are concentrating their minds on the IHT!
http://news.sky.com/skynews/article/0,,30400-1286414,00.html
O/T Good luck to Villa at WHL this evening!
102. You obviously haven’t visited Weymouth recently Jon.
Channel4 news, the only poll they mentioned was one due on Thursday evening.
Spokesman for the Institute of Fiscal Studies on C4 news, seemed a little bemused by the Tory figures, especially on inheritance tax.
Also, political editor, confirmed that at NO10, its all systems go for a general election.
102. It’s far from mad, It brings the Home Owner vote on side for the Tories at both ends of the age spectrum when you consider: No first timebuyer stamp duty for purchases under £250K. Also the abolition of HIP’s another home owner tax! Remember that Homeownership grow massively from 1980 onwards. It must be about 80% of dwellings by now.
105
First of all as a I’m sure a ‘Green Tory’ putting petrol up is not bad news, its good news, the only thing bad about in your opinion is, it isn’t going up enough!
When the GE is called Martin you’ll have to eat an awful lot of shit, won’t you.
107. Thursday evening would be exactly right for a post Cameron poll. He is going to make his speech on Wed afternoon, they will poll Wed night after people have watched the news, and reveal their findings on Thurs evening.
109 Time to lighten the mood
http://tinyurl.com/2n3vas
A good conservative conference speech from the early 80’s - more like this and we’ll definitely win a majority!
109. Actually mate i will have to do alot of Shit eating as i have just bought a car for my new job that is far from Green!
It is essential for the job though and i will of course be paying tax for pollution!
I am looking forward to any potential election anyway! Hopefully people will get more into it than the last couple - Even more hopeful if the Tories get more voters out than the last few elections proportionally!
Martin Day @ 100 & 108
Stand back a few feet from your natural Conservative inclinations, and ask yourself who Osborne’s proposals and the “work-shy jobseeker allowance claimants” rhetoric most appealed to.
Are you thinking what I’m thinking ? Yes, the core vote yet again. This is a strategy that the history of 2001 and 2005 tells us was not a winning one.
102
The reason Labour held onto South Dorset, was A. Jim Knight even Tories admit he’s been an excellent MP. B. The Tories have never recovered from the closure of the Portland navy base, after always saying they would never close it. C. The local Tories seem to be incapable of picking a decent candidate. The last one came from, ‘Rent-a-Cretin’ remember the doctored immigration photo. The candidate they’ve chosen for the next GE, is Richard Drax, scion of a local landowning family, he is not inspiring.
Jim Knight could hang on, but because he’s Jim Knight, not because he’s Labour.
96 Stewart. I think you’ll find that Conservative MPs decided that IDS was “hopeless” and junked him without even the courtesy of a landslide election defeat !!
112
Nice one Martin, I won’t tell Zac!
Must admit that dead millionares don`t have to pay tax is a winner.
113. You might say that, however i quit the tories in the middle of 2005 GE as i disagreed with the much strategy & policy. In the two years since i have revaluated my position principly on immigration. There has been too much and it has distorted the housing market, social services, NHS, education and demand for public transport. I still voted for them to protest against Blair. I feel i can positively vote Tory this time and interestingly have spoken to others today who voted Labour the last two times because of Blair who now see IHT as something that could affect their family.
I do not support NHS & education vouchers (Bag of Bollocks - would not get public support).
The IHT is a senseble move as with the stamp duty, these are far from core vote policies. In terms of JSA claimants, i concede that some people might agree with your position. Howere, i have seen and spoken to people who are intent on living off the state. I am also surrportive of changing the Tax credits system to support couples as well as individuals.
I do think the electorate has moved somewhat to the right in the last 2 years and if it has not why has Brown Flip-Flopped on Immigration, the family etc last week?
115. If there’s not an election this year the same will happen to Ming.
So who exactly is going to be caught by the proposed non-domicile levy? Presumably not everyone non-domiciled: presumably Roman Abramovich pays but the Polish plumber or Australian temp don’t. So do you set a threshold based on the size of their overseas assets or income? And then does HMRC have to conduct international investigations to validate that every non-super-rich non-British person working here falls under that?
I am still puzzling over the Jon Snow interview with Cameron where he said that (a) the Tories need to win in the North and then (b) that there weren’t many million pound houses in the North.
Isn’t that the point of all this .. that people all over the country won’t have to pay inheritance tax at all? This will play well … a good move all-in-all.
119 tjm. Possibly. Although if it looks like a Spring 08 election then no.
116. Thanks!
Maybe Zac has a guilty concious in that his dad flew regularly all over the world, come to think about it the rest of his family did as well! 
Also if you are incapacited and dont take a job no welfare for you, even better.
114 (Unfortunately) Jim Knight is a good guy - supported us in getting funding for our community store so while a Labour MP in Wessex is like a crowing hen I’d not be too sad to see him keep his seat; Drax though will definitely have a better chance because he is better known as the local BBC reporter than a landowner (the incomers will just wonder why he’s called after a Bond villain and the Darset born have probably forgotten the landed gentry thing)
re 121. What a patronising view of the north Jon Snow has. Until a few months ago I used to live in York where property was more expensive than many parts of the south east.
He ought to go to the Harrogate area or even to Manchester’s suburbs where I grew up. The north is not poverty stricken and its not grim up there any more. Yes there are pockets of deprivation but there are large areas of great prosperity.
What an ignorant metropolitan git.
126. Very True Some parts of Leeds are very expensive too! In fact most Town’s and cities in the North have quite a few expensive houses in them. I live in Huddersfield and even around and about here you can usually find houses of £1M plus in every estate agent window (Apart from the esate agents that focus on high turnover low return!!!
).
I don’t think that people relise how much real estate has increased in value and the numbers who were put through the £300K threshold, even in places perceived to be poor.
Neither the median house nor the mean come anywhere near IHT… the overwehlming majority of estates still pass it by completely.
I think the Tories on this showing still have a long way to go before they address the concerns of the majority.
IT’S ‘AVE IT’S ELECTION SPECIAL’!!!
Good evening boys and girls and welcome to the first edition of ‘Ave it’s election special’ featuring fair minded and unbiased commentary about the forthcoming election.
Today the great George Osborne of the freedom loving Conservative Party set out the great way forward with the proposed lifting of stamp duty threshold to £250,000 and inheritance tax to £1m. Such a contrast to the money grabbing current Labour administration who wants to give our money to unmarried mothers and other undesirable social classes!
The impact of this great leap forward for decent honest hard working non-sponging people has of course filtered through in the latest Ave it national projected result:
Con 37.7% 297
Lab 35.2% 294
LD 17.1% 30
Oth 10.0% 29
Con short by 28.
will Gordon now not call the election? The nation awaits!!
Russia - I knew Putin was up to something! I guess he will nominate his preferred successor as President, and that man, assuming elected, will install Putin as PM. You scratch my back…
I still think Ivanov is the man. Will report more when I know more. The current PM, Zubkov, has just been a smokescreen to hide Putin’s cunning plan.
(Thought for the day: If there is a power shift from the Presidency to the PM early next year in Russia, is this a sign of increased democracy?)
126 one of your best ever posts and sentiments with which I think the majority of posters can agree with!
120 the Polish plumber or Australian temp don’t and neither are they likely to be registered non-dom unless they have significant offshore income that isn’t remitted to the UK. I suggest you find out a little bit about what is meant by non-dom for the purposes of registering with HMRC proir to parading your ignorance in a ‘what a load of cobblers’ post’.
The proposals affect those with enough earnings off-shore to warrant not wishing to pay UK tax on them. It is hard to avoid, low enough to not affect the people its aimed at raises considerable revenue. Gordon’s been talking about a more penal variation for about the last 13 years but as with most things he says, it’s all aspiration and no delivery (something to do with all those non-dom Labour donors)
Re 120. Book Value, how many Polish plumbers do you suppose go through the accountants heartache to get the non dom status?
I like Ave It’s polls a lot better than Jack’s ARSE and every bit as “impartial”
128. Well look at it another way, if 80% of the adult population is a home owner. This dwarfs the 60% who turned out roughly in 2001 and 2005. The Tories are running on a pro-homeowner platform because they want to encourage first-time buyers, Scrap HIP’s and enable people to be shielded from IHT if their estate is greater than £300,000. An estate incudes House, Heirlooms, Investments, money the lot. It is not so had these days to get into the few hundred thousands if you own a house and have saved or invested in life.
The Labour inclined posters have tended to look soley at IHT but the “Pro-homeowner platform” is an iceberg waiting to puncture the New Labour Tititanic. I am not saying the Tories will win but Labour could seriously end up in a less secure position giving the Tories a step - up. Labour have also got a lot of Negatives to campaign against.
Re 126, Mike, “What an ignorant metropolitan git”
I hear he speaks highly of you
133 - you know it’s ‘fair minded and unbiased’
Trust ‘Ave it’ to give you the election result NOW
134 - “if 80% of the adult population is a home owner” - anybody know the figure?
129.
:lol: 
I have just got a telephone call from CCHQ, they are just getting the Chickens outs to take round to NO.10! They cannot get the birdy song any suggestions?
133 Test.
138
:lol: 
:lol: 
:lol:
131 - they are still Polish-domiciled, they don’t become UK domiciled simply through an act of omission in their paperwork.
But how do you know those who don’t register don’t have overseas income anyway? Is HMRC equipped to go after them if they aren’t the super-rich obvious targets?
138 Martin. Are they coming home to roost or crossing the road to get to the other side ??
138 - “The Grand Old Duke of York”? (”he marched them up to the top of the hill, and he marched them down again”)
At what point will “Ave It’s Election Special” become “Had It’s Election Special”?
Looks like all the Labour have gone quiet on here!
Waiting for the election to be quietly ‘forgotten’
143 - it might happen if gordon gets that clucking feeling……
80 It all about GOTV !
Horray, harrah, Damn good politics at long last.
Pass me a ‘I love Dave and George’ badge immediately !!
Dead married millionares rejoice.
This may or may not have been spotted earlier (far too much to keep up with now on the site!), but listening to the Radio 1 Newsbeat programme earlier I heard Cameron coming across favourably with his answers on stamp duty, IHT and something else which I’ve forgotten but what was significant was this:
“You can catch a longer version of David Cameron’s interview on the Radio 1 website, where you can also listen to an interview with Liberal leader Ming Campbell. And if you are wondering about Gordon Brown, well he was asked but has declined to take part.”
Ooops! There goes the under 35 vote then…
Re 141, Book Value, a foreign builder who comes here to work will generally pay tax as a UK resident unless he opts out. What is more, my understanding is that you have to apply for non domiciled status and leave the country every so often to make it stick. Builders pay on the cards and if they over pay have to claim back.
Now it may well be that a Polish plumber has an income in Poland, which it does not occur to him/her to declare. However those who do claim non dom status normally know exactly how much it is worth and pay accountants to tell them.
137. Soory was 71% in 2000 (Approx)
Got me numbers muddled: Could have gone up since!
http://www.statistics.gov.uk/STATBASE/ssdataset.asp?vlnk=7326
Still larger number than voters though at the last 2 GE’s as Percentage of adult population!
146 All this talk of Conservative chickens, but then Tory Boy pops up suffering from bird flu !!
149 - Book Value, a foreign builder who comes here to work will generally pay tax as a UK resident unless he opts out. What is more, my understanding is that you have to apply for non domiciled status and leave the country every so often to make it stick.
I think this misses the distinction between residence and domicile. The people at the crux of this policy are resident here (taxable on UK income) but they are not domiciled here (hence not taxable on non-UK income).
Of course you can make the avoidance point about most taxes, there is always the chance of getting away with a non-declaration. But the chance seems greater when you’re talking about offshore incomes and so to project £3.5bn from this is courageous.
People don’t automatically become “non-domiciled”. It’s a choice that they make. Presumably if it’s not worth 25K to register then people won’t.
142. If they cross the road and turn into road kill they say they are going to make it into Chicken Curry soap and distrubute it from the capitals soup kitchens!
JW - Don’t get into a flap, jack….
I always told you ‘Right’ would prevail !!
Regards (Smiley thingy)
TB
Speaking from Monte Carlo, the Tory tax cut looks pretty alluring to me.
I have yet to buy my first house, so I rather fancy the end of stamp duty; but I will one day inherit a family home worth over £250,000 but under £1m, and the threat of IHT is worrying the family. So Osborne’s promises good sense to the likes of me.
Thanks, George. Sorry I was so horrible about you earlier this month. I still think you’re too young and posh to be chancellor - but that was a good speech well-judged.