But will it move the polls?
October 3rd, 2007
When should we get the first measured reactions?
Everybody has their own views of the speech but the people that will matter most in the next day or so are those chosen by the polling organisations to take part in their surveys. How will they react? Will their opinions of the parties be any different from the recent polls? Will Labour still be in a commanding position to launch a successful election campaign?
My view is that we will see a significant move to the Tories - what I can’t predict is the scale of that shift and that is everything. If we get close to level-pegging then it’s going to be a much tougher call for Brown. If not then November 1st would seem to be it.
From what I can gather several major surveys are being carried out at the moment and this is what I believe we might expect.
The YouGov Panel. It looks as though the Telegraph and the Sunday Times have commissioned surveys and we might get the former on Friday. I don’t know whether Channel 4 News will have commissioned another “quickie” survey like the one after Brown’s speech but the broadcaster ought to if only for balance. Last week their Brown survey appeared the evening afterwards. YouGov, of course, restricts its surveys to members of its polling panel and does not weight by likelihood to vote.
Populus Fieldwork by the pollster for the Times is being carried out and my understanding is that this should be appearing on Saturday morning. The last poll had Labour 10% ahead. Will there have been a significant claw-back?
ICM Fieldwork for a poll is taking place and I have yet to identify the client. It might be the Guardian though it could be for one of the Sunday papers. We have not seen an ICM poll since before the Labour conference.
Ipsos-Mori I have no direct information but its likely that a survey will be appearing in the next day or so.
Mike Smithson
MessageSpace Advertising
YES.
I expect Labour to slip into the low 30’s. The Tories to move into the mid 30’s. And the Libs perhaps dropping into low double figures.
A better question might be - if an election is called how accurate will the polls be ?
Well, I think all of us agree (if not necessarily in public) that we have just witnessed the finest political speech of this generation. Exuding an almost overwhelming calmness, modesty, intelligence and warmth, Dave has contrasted himself beautifully with the hapless Brown, who droned and harrumphed and boasted and growled at Bournemouth last week. Whatever tiny inclination Brown had to call an early poll has now shattered like a fallen icicle. It’s the long and lingering death until 2010 for him. For Dave, the future stretches ahead like a valley bathed in sunlight.
I doubt Cameron’s speech will make any difference but I heard from some people that Osborne’s tax policies had gone down well. I think Labour’s rabit rebuttal unit will have to get it’s act together. I haven’t heard anything from Labour to sucessfully rubbish Osbornes plans though some interesting letters in the Guardian which showed that it can easily be done. Maybe Browns spending too much time playing soldiers!
Perversely, I’m hoping the shift doesn’t happen until this time next week.
That’ll teach the Dour One won’t it!
3 - You’re being rather unkind to Cameron, aren’t you?
Will it really make a difference.
I have just been talking to a local agent who tells me his biggest worry is getting people to answer their doors at night in the dark.
Serious campaigning could well be compromised by this lack of engagement with the electorate so it will be even more down to the 4th estate to get the message out.How even handed they are may well yet influence the outcome.
Postal strike starts tomorrow i gather,how much coverage will that get?
So are any more UKIPers swayed like rightisright swayed? TB’s majority would have been in the low twenties if three-quarters of them have voted Tory last time.
4. ‘rabit’ rebutal? That’s about right, possibly ‘rabid’, even.
3 - is that one a piss take then. I haven’t seen this poster before so I’m not sure if it’s a deliberate spoof.
If it isn’t in jest, it’s a ridiculous attempt to astroturf. I suppose when you’re around when a new thread starts, it’s tempting to do so as your fake comment will always be near the top.
In answer to question - Tories are bound to do much better than last week. Brown has to have balls and just do it now.
352 previous thread “his eyes wre on storks”
Spelling mistake/bizarre avian horror imagery crossover….
Oh I also think that Brown’s terribly misguided decision to go to Iraq in the middle of the Tory Conference and British troops for his own electoral advantage, may have far more severe ramifications than anything Cameron could have said. I think it’ll confirm people’s fears about Brown…. The Psychological Flaw on full display.
Heard George Osborne on Five Live on the way home. The BBC host (I never know the radio ones by name) rubbished his ideas as the Treasury (!) said the numbers didn’t add up but GO responded very reasonably and made the host seem petty and stupid. Osborne’s media handling is certainly improving.
4.Roger, do you think that the fact that Labour have been unable to undermine these tax policies straight away, will blunt an attack later on?
10: ‘I haven’t seen this poster before so I’m not sure if it’s a deliberate spoof.’
Stonch, I am well known on this site and everyone likes and admires me!
1. That should have course have read Labour will slip to the high 30’s, not the low 30’s.
Stark Raving Bonkers! Last week you were comparing Brown’s speech to various members of the third Reich ending with Hitler Himself. Now perhaps we can look forward to you going through the great speech makers of the 20th Century before arriving at the very best ….Cameron!!! (Even Matthew Parris only thought it average).
Kellner said before the speech that YouGov fieldwork was started this evening. This might be the equivalent “quickie” poll.
12. Agreed. I bet quite a few high-minded Lib Dem types will move away from Brown after the bad coverage of that stunt.
I bet that UKIP are scrambling around for candidates, deposits and funds in general. I predict a lower UKIP vote.
Frankly I’ve no idea. ICM could be for the Sunday Mirror, I suppose.
There is one other alternative and that is`November 8. This would leave time for GB to determine whether any post Tory conference ‘froth’ had blown away. Nick Palmer hinted at this possibility yesterday.
Frankly I don’t think this is a very attractive option. It would allow DC to hound GB throughout the week, not least at PMQs on Wednesday. I’m sure the Press would join in. ‘Get on with it Gordon etc.’ If GB at the end of all that pulled the plug, the damage would be even worse than it is already.
I only hope the Diana inquest coverage doesn’t detract from DC’s positioning in the tabloids tomorrow. The Tories suffered somewhat today from those admittedly striking photos showing Henri Paul and Trevor Rees Jones’ faces just before the crash.
Of the very few people I “talk politics” with, I have yet to detect any enthusiasm for Brown whatsoever. Everyone thinks he’s the guy who puts their taxes up and whose presence has been felt once again on the nation’s forecourts this week. That said, few people are bigging-up Cameron in the way the nation shifted to Blair in 1996-7. But I do detect a growing amount of respect for DC the more people see of him.
What will happen over the next month, and which hasn’t happened at any time since Nov-Dec 2005, is that David Cameron will be on our screens every night going about his campaign in a quietly confident, statesmanlike way, exuding confidence. People will get to like him and his message. The Tories really could win this election, although I accept it’s unlikely. At worst for the Tories, Brown will have sacrificed his authority and a decent majority simply to win an extra 2 years in power. Is it worth it?
When should we get the first measured reactions?
In The Sun and The Times at around 11pm this evening!
The polls are frothy anyway, no doubt the recent positive coverage will narrow the gap but unfortunately [for us tories] I still expect a comfortable labour win.
As I said before Gordon isn’t stupid, he’s not going to call it unless he knows he’s going to win it.
People wanted a change from Blair and they’ve got it. I’m sure they’ll endorse this on Nov 1st given the chance.
end of story
21 - and I am in no doubt that Brown or Blair fixed it so that the inquest would start in the week of the Tory Conference. I reckon a November poll was always in the back of their minds in the event that Brown did get an unexpected bounce, so it would make sense to arrange something for this week.
(The fact that the new judicial term happened to start this week is a mere irrelevance. They probably rigged that too…)
14. ChrisD. Yes it could. If it gains traction and lifts the Conservatives in the polls that’ll give them a momentum which could cost Labour seats. Even if they are eventually rubbished it wont necessarily slow the momentum
In answer to the title question - No!
Had enough of Liam Fox this last 24 hours. Isn’t he the most odious, slimy little git ever? Permanently outraged about things. If Gordon sent him a Christmas card, Liam would look upon it as a chance to pop up on TV and say it was an outrage.
“Of the very few people I “talk politics” with, I have yet to detect any enthusiasm for Brown whatsoever. Everyone thinks he’s the guy who puts their taxes up and whose presence has been felt once again on the nation’s forecourts this week.”
Seeing that Brown was up to 10% ahead in the polls several times, that would suggest the people you “talk politics” with aren’t very representative.
Even if the tone of coverage for Brown’s trip to Iraq was rather negative, the trip served the point; it (amazingly) kept the Conservatives from the headlines at the height of their conference and generated very extensive coverage for a very popular and populist policy - bringing troops home.
22 - Bob, on the other hand among the people I talk to lots have been won over by Brown, so I guess it’s just who you know. We choose our friends, remember. If my circles were anything to go by, Brown would be on course to win a massive majority. I don’t think that’s the case, however.
I’m not saying you’re right or that I’m right - I’m just saying that one’s one anecdotal experiences are usually rather meaningless.
22 - i’ve just re-read my post at 22. I am William Rees-Mogg and I claim by £10.
I’d better get on with some work….
23 - “measured reactions? In The Sun and The Times at around 11pm this evening!”
Measured reaction - what? In the Sun? Hahahahahahaha!
24. LOL! Thats pretty defeatist for an activist. Of course the Tories are almosy definatly going to lose the election, but perversely, they could still end up coming out stronger. There are a lot of narrow marginal seats in the south and south-east that are up for grabs and if enough of them fall, could even deny Brown of an overall majority.
What poll lead will Brown need to press the Go button?
I reckon about 4% minimum, 6% or above and it’s a certainty IMO.
1.GIN that means the others will be in the mid to upper teens!
34 - agree with that. If it’s less than 4% he won’t go to the polls.
But surely he’ll need to scotch speculation to limit the damage the whole aborted election will have done to his reputation - will he make an announcement?
34. Brown won’t go on 4% - he’ll lose about 3% over the course of an election campaign, as all governments do.
33 - Indeed I would point out a marginal in the south east that in theory is an almost certain Conservative gain. Harlow, not sure what the notional result is but in 05 maj was 98 IIRC.
17: ‘…great speech makers of the 20th Century before arriving at the very best…Cameron!!!’
I think you’ll find Cameron turned up in the 21st Century. Labour eh? Still stuck in the era of the Bolsheviks and Chairman Mao while Dave strides ahead to the future!
Nick Robinson’s early take is not encouraging from the Tories’ perspective - and this gives us a clue as to how the BBC News are going to play it:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/nickrobinson/
No doubts about where Nick R’s tongue remains firmly planted!
40. Nick was caught out yesterday bigstyle on tv
“Gordon….Cameron…Gordon…..Cameron…etc “
32 You rather missed my point SBS, which was that it’s a Murdoch journal with around 7 million readers.
3 - the beauty of this speech is that it will have a week delayed reaction- Brown will still go while people are making up their minds.
But then people will understand what a stunningly great man Cameron is, and appreciate what a low life, crawling scumbag of a reptile Brown is. In fact I would surprised if a single person voted Labour on 1st November. Very surprised indeed.
Mike. Earlier this afternoon I heard, I think it was, Mike Page of MORI say that ALL the pollsters were working on post Cameron speech polls and were having to assist each other to get the work done.
I know my ARSE will be hard at it for days ….. and very probably weeks to come !!
Is there a transcript anywhere.
The drowning boy stuff could be serious for Cameron.
Surely he didn’t say the CSOs got there while the boy was drowning?
40 Really? Not too favourable but not a hatchet job I thought..
34,
“What poll lead will Brown need to press the Go button?”
From where I’m sitting the GO button looks to have been pressed already! It would take a catastrophe now to make Gordon change his mind.
43. There’s no point doing spoof post impersonations when your normal style is already so comic.
How will Gord get out of this one ??
Forget the polls the autumn/winter of discontent will finish off Nulabour,thank goodness
Postal workers to stage national strike
Publisher: Ian Morgan
Published: 03/10/2007 - 16:20:16 PM Printable version
Postal workers to stage
national strike
Postal workers will launch a fresh series of national strikes tomorrow which will cripple deliveries until next week and cost firms millions of pounds in lost business.
The Communication Workers Union said 130,000 of its members will walkout at 12 noon for 48 hours, followed by another two day stoppage from 3am on Monday.
A rolling programme of strikes will start on October 15 and will continue every week until a long running dispute over pay, pensions and jobs is resolved.
Another fine mess Nulabour has got this country into “Bottler ” Brown.
45. The boy was drowning when they got there. They just couldn’t see him.
Both News 24 and Sky News are leading with previously unshown video footage of Dodi and Diana on the day of their deaths.
This might knock Cameron’s speech out of the the news agenda with the UK public.
The thing is that Cameron can make the most amazing speech, but the public need to know the Party has changed. I saw an interesting statistic that said only 12% of voters thought Cmaeron led the most united Party. Brown had 56%.
It speaks volumes, butagain if the Tories fail, they’ll just blame the leader.
49. Are there any laws regarding postal strikes and general elections ?
49, and people have the cheek to complain about LABOUR trolls…
47. Why? All GB needs to do to stop a poll is to not do much this week and then say on Friday “I wish the media would stop making up these stories, I’m just getting on with running the country.” Who would remember this by 2010, or even next Spring?
47. I imagine a catastrophe would make Gordon even more likely to press Go! The public responds very well to his handling of crisis situations (e.g. Northern Rock, Terrorism etc.)
51, That unity figure should improve a bit this week, I’d have thought. Remember, when that poll was taken, Labour/Media were all predicting meltdown for the Tories this week, and that ain’t happened at all.
51. People may think the Conservatives are divided, but results that I have seen suggest that most people think DC has changed the party “a bit” since he became leader. A few more years and people will think hes changed it a “medium amount”. That’s as good as we can hope for after the dreadful image of the Howard years.
45- tim- if Cameron was trying to play politics with the drowning boy- never heard this part of the speech- would surely count as one of the most low life, opportunistic, reckless, political clangers in history.
49. It doesn’t matter if there is a postal strike as Labour’s postal votes have already been collected.
58. If he had even whiffed in that direction it would be on the front of the Beeb website - it isn’t.
There must be a transcript available somewhere soon.
Anyone know where?
It seems that the commentators and even those in the hall weren’t universally excited by the speech. The man from the Independent has just described it as ‘foggy and overlong’ though the man from the Telegraph liked it..
54 tjm. Before the speech the lunch time news bulletins led with the Diana inquest news. The Beeb may lead with the speech but I wonder if ITV will.
I be astonished if the all the tabloids didn’t go Diana in the morning.
57. No! The Party isn’t just going to naturally evolve into what the voters want. If Cameron wants change he has to fight for it. That may mean taking on the dinosaurs. IMO the reason his ratings have fallen over the last year is that he promised to change the Tories and hasn’t delivered. So he either seems weak or disingenuous
For the previous party leaders speeches ITV News have done a ‘viewers panel’ to get reactions. Could be our first chance to see how the punters are taking it before the proper polls on Friday.
62. Did the guy from the mirror like it ?
21.Bluemoon it is either November 1st, or he clearly backs off from having one altogether this year. IMHO, no one has the patience for another week of spin and briefing and Brown’s credibility as a serious politician will be damaged.
26.Thanks Roger, I have been surprised at how ineffective the new Chancellor has been on this and it shows Darlings weaknesses. Brown and Balls together in the department might have been more effective, but not anymore now they have different briefs.
45.Tim, go listen to the speech!
I wonder how the marvellously-statesmanlike-in-a-crisis Fat Controller will handle the loss of an innocent woman by-passer caught in gang crossfire today in London (events, dear boy, events). No doubt the police will refer to this as an “isolated incident”).
58: ‘…one of the most low life, opportunistic, reckless, political clangers in history.’
No, I think Cameron chose his words carefully and didn’t mention his political opponents in the same breath. It was more about people (the CSOs in this case) feeling powerless to do their civic duty because of the confusion of rules and red-tape. However, I’m sure the boy’s parents are being contacted for their reaction by various journalists and politicos as we speak.
There was a story earlier this week that Alex Salmond may well stand against GB in the general election.
Could GB win an election but lose his seat?
Most likely not but it could be fun
68. How can such events occur when Labour has banned guns? It must be a tabloid fabrication.
68-He wont handle it unless there are any votes in it for him
70. No chance at all. SNP win in Kirkcaldy? Absurd.
Now that it’s all over if I had to do the election advertising for either of the main parties I think there is little doubt that the job Saatchis have to do for Labour is much the easier.
Cameron has wasted two years when he should have been building his party. His gimmicks have been a waste of time and have cost him dearly. Talking articulately is quite a skill. If I was Gordon I would go now. In two years learning from his past mistakes Cameron will be a formidable opponent.
68. But crime is falling under Labour so this is irrelevant..
71, whereas in just over a month Cameron will be elected, wave his magic wand, and guns will dissappear for ever…
GIN @ 33
I’m not an activist, just a lifelong supporter.
Regarding my supposed defeatest views, I just tell it as I see it, I try to live in a world where 2+2=4.
registered non doms by year
1997 68
1998 83
1999 91
2000 98
2001 106
2002 111
2003 110
2004 111
2005 115
2006 114
how did the Tories get to 150K?
source
http://www.hm-treasury.gov.uk/about/information/foi_disclosures/2007/foi_costing_2007.cfm
Oh !!
Tories warned today of the potential for “Florida-style chaos” if a snap election is called this autumn.
Returning officers have warned over recent days that one million or more voters could be disenfranchised in a November poll, as the new updated electoral rolls will not be complete until December 1.
People who have recently moved house - including thousands of students who have just started at university - could find that they are still registered at their old address, despite having filled in registration forms over the past few weeks.
And 18-year-olds who became eligible to vote on their birthdays within the past few months may find that they are not yet on the roll.
No autumn General Election has been held in the UK since 1974, and the tradition of opting for spring polls has allowed council staff to finalise the new electoral rolls annually with plenty of time to spare.
Osbornes been caught out completely on the Non doms.
His figures rely on Filipino Maids paying £25k
79. http://www.order-order.com/2007/10/osborne-demands-explanation-over-civil.html
I take it they will be claiming there are 15 by next week..
“Surely he didn’t say the CSOs got there while the boy was drowning?”
Yes, he did.
A worthy speech by Cameron but the Radio bulletins although still leading with the story are already losing interest, was Diana pregnant or not seems far more exciting!
Nonetheless if I was Brown I still wouldn’t go now!
74 - A Labour supporter talking about “gimmicks” strikes me as just a little bit like a case of the “kettles and pots” frankly.
As for the speech itself, it was good it’ll work well through the media I would have thought… some are making the mistake of thinking that DC should have produced some kind of “barn burner”, but that would not have served him well, the style he adopted today and the content he expounded upon were (to my mind at least) well balanced and should serve him well. The kind of tone we saw today would also serve him very well in a general election campaign IMHO.
45 & 58 Cameron referring to the dying boy was echoing the reaction of the boy’s mother made publicly. David Blunkett has heavily criticized the 2 CSO’s (he set up the CSO service) for not attempting to rescue the boy.
While the speech by Cameron was good, it doesn’t seem, at first glance, to be the kind of speech that would create the sort of bounce that Brown wouldn’t have discounted already. He’s obviously had to factor in the effect of a Cameron bounce into his timetable, so I doubt a drop in the polls will deflect him.
Sorry all of this moving to the right, punishing single people, unmarried people isn;t going to win new voters over. It didn’t work in 2005! Remember in 2005 Labout Lost votes because of Iraq. If it hadn’t have been for Iraq Labour would have won a 90+ maj!
I really don’t think that this will work epscially when held up to the scrutinity of an election campaign. Same old Tories is what I am thinking!
83 - this drowning story is typical of a single incident hijacking the political agenda. Rose Addis, Laura Spence, Jennifer’s ear…
Of course it was a dreadful incident, but let’s not play politics with it.
From what I have heard, when the CSOs arrived, the boy was nowhere to be seen, and the lake was the size of a football pitch - and pretty deep. Even if that’s not the case (in which case the police are lying), why has this come up today? Did Cameron raise it in his speech? If so, it’s cheap politics.
88. How are single people getting punished?
86 - “David Blunkett has heavily criticized the 2 CSO’s ” - well, that says it all really!
83.
Hope he has got his facts right on this, any public servant been used as a political tool is a risky business.
I would expect some comeback if Cameron has not got it %100 correct he surely cant be relying on media reports.
Has he run it by the cheif constable of the force involved?, I am sure he must have or it would be a big gamble.
Any bets on a possible removal of the latest 2p on fuel duty shortly?
Tabloids will lead on Diana. New video/was she pregant/ she was on the pill. Far more exciting than Cameron.
This from Tory website:
“And it ended with that extraordinary farce of two community support officers standing by a lake after a boy had drowned, feeling that because the rule book said they couldn’t intervene, they shouldn’t. Well, we’ve got to start tearing up the rule books and allowing people common sense, initiative, and responsibility in the jobs that they do.”
My analysis.
Cams drop in the polls was significantly due to Conservative supporters being “less likely to vote” - will this week with the speech and the tax policy make some of these voters reply “certain to vote” who didn’t before ? Surely yes - ergo narrowing of polls.
Moved from end of previous thread
Ian Duncan Smith observed that Broewn will not be looking at the immediate reaction to Daves speech(which I found managerial rather than inspirational but to the weekend polls.
This raises the question of which polls to look at to predict a general election result.Have a look at this-12months of Guardian ICM polls in the period between 16 and 4 months before a General election and the subsequent actual result.
1996/7 Polls C31,Lab 47,Lib 18,Actual C31,Lab 44,Lib 17
2000/1 Polls C33,Lab 42,Lib 18 Actual C33,Lab 42,Lib 19
2004/5 Polls C32,lab 37,Lib 22 Actual C33,Lab 36,Lib 23.
This seemsto suggest that people make ther emind up broadly in the3/4thyear of a parliament and that the 4 month period before an election makes little difference.
The qhestion is would a similar model work when we are only18 months into a parliament,when all 3 leaders have changed,one recently and when ita an autumn not spring election.Probably not. but here are the figures from the 12 months from July 2006 to June2007 ….Con 38,Lab 32,Lib 21.Is this thereal voter feelin onc ethe froth of the Brown Bounce has subsided during a serious election campaign?
Rogerh
by Roger H October 3rd, 2007 at 4:41 pm
Sorry to be killjoy but i think 63 has got it right.
The tabloids will go with Diana tomorrow as it sells copy.
DC will be left out in the cold and the majority of his message will go unheard.
Here’s what Cameron said (according to version on http://www.conservatives.com):
‘And it ended with that extraordinary farce of two community support officers standing by a lake after a boy had drowned, feeling that because the rule book said they couldn’t intervene, they shouldn’t. Well, we’ve got to start tearing up the rule books and allowing people common sense, initiative, and responsibility in the jobs that they do.’
http://tinyurl.com/2phfx6
It’s sounds to me like it’s criticizing idiotic bureaucracy, not the people involved.
98 timmo. I am not a number ….
Can a Conservative explain one bit of Cameron’s speech which I was genuinely confused about. He said we need to get business to care more about their impact on society, and that was the only way to reduce tax and regulation. But how is this to be done? Of course it would be great if businesses were altruistic but on the whole they aren’t which is why you need regulation. He criticized Brown for not explaining how he would implement change - but neither did Cameron.
- “common sense, initiative” - diving into a dark, deep, large lake with no equipment, and searching high and low, may well be extremely dangerous. Initiative and bravery perhaps… but common sense?
If the Chief Constable of Wherevershire gets involved, Cameron may have just had his Jennifer’s ear moment.
99. Yes, that’s fair enough.
98… Gosh. Imagine if the Tories had announced Inheritance tax repeal on the same day as a new Diana video. I think the Express would have had to do two seperate newspapers!
The coverage Diana gets amazes me - do that many people still give a rats ?
Sorry Jack but are you a free man???
From the Sky New blog:
“Cameron also hit the spot with three out of four of Sky News’ swingvoters in Redditch.”
http://adamboulton.typepad.com/my_weblog/2007/10/camerons-speech.html
100 Tabloids can do split front Pages. That’d be my guess
106 timmo. That depends if Mrs Jack W is in the room !!
99,
Its a fine line saying standing by after the boy had drowned.
But giving an impression to the public that they stood by and watched him drown because of bureaucracy.
It doesn`t feel right to me a major political figure using this tragedy.
Strange choice of language by Cameron.
How can you intervene after someone has drowned?
Well if the Tories could offer those of us single people on modest salaries struggling something I’d be happy!. Rather than promising those who are already well off more tax breaks. The whole tax credits for couples being more is indicitive of this.
A single parent would have more child care issues for a start. A couple there are two incomes not one. Two people to manage the childcare etc…..
There will be a bounce, and I think at the end of day a Tory win is very unlikely. They just don’t look like a Gov in waiting IMHO!
I don’t mind a good Diana story but I am rather baffled by a continuous loop of Parisian carparks and hotel corridors.
Looking at the Mail and Sun websites Diana’s inquest is winning hands down at the moment. I hope that changes…..
78&81.Apparently that is an estimate of a figure they were unable to give to politicians in parliament earlier this year. Now they have some how managed to cobbled together a figure lower than Osborne’s in 2 days when it was needed to rebut a Tory policy. Odd that! Labour has not got a leg to stand on with this.
I think DC should have done his speech with a Diana mask on.
He would have got tomorrows coverage then.
114 Blue Moon. For the tabloids it’s a non contest. Diana sells, DC ???
Just when Gord thought it couldn’t get any worse Tony Benn appears !
In response to the attempt to ban the Troops Out march on Monday, 8th October Tony Benn has today delivered a letter to the Home Secretary confirming that he will be marching on 8th October despite the attempt to use the arcane 1839 Sessional legislation to prohibit this march. The letter appears below. Tony will be joined at the front of the march by Walter Wolfgang, Brian Eno, Mark Thomas and many more people calling for the withdrawal of British troops and in defence of civil liberties.
TO:
The Right Hon Jacqui Smith MP
Home Secretary
House of Commons
London
SW1A OAA
Monday, 1st October 2007
Dear Home Secretary,
LOBBY OF PARLIAMENT ON OCTOBER 8th
I am writing to you as President of the STOP THE WAR COALITION, to give you advance notice that there will be a demonstration in Trafalgar Square the day Parliament meets calling for the immediate withdrawal of all British troops from Iraq and Afghanistan at which I shall be speaking along with others.
Afterwards many of those present - including myself - will be marching along Whitehall to the House of Commons to meet MPs and urge them to support this call for a withdrawal, as I shall be doing in approaching Malcolm Rifkind my own local MP.
We shall be doing this in an orderly manner and I am making available to those who wish to have one, a postcard over my printed signature as a Privy Councillor, asking the police, and others to assist them.
I enclose a copy of this postcard.
The authority for this march derives from our ancient right to free speech and assembly enshrined in our history, of which we often boast and which we vigorously defended in two world wars.
I am copying this letter, and its enclosure, to Jack Straw, the Commissioner of the Metropolis, and as a courtesy, to the Prime Minister’s office.
I hope that you will be able to re-assure me that those who demonstrate and march down Whitehall will enjoy your full support and the support of the police.
But it is only fair to tell you that the march will go ahead, in any case, and I will be among those marching.
Yours in peace
TONY BENN
Good coverage for Cameron on BBC 6 O’Clock News
119:
Yes, the best-of compilation is far better than wading through the album tracks.
115 - Osborne seems to have been a little naive in the way he raised this, doesnt look too good (for the 0.1% of people who will ever read about it). On the other hand the Labour posters here are being completely disingenuous in suggesting the Tory figures are way out or bonkers. They’re just as good a guess as the Treasury’s going by the caveats the Treasury put to its guestimates.
120: Well thats what most people will see and that’s all they want to see.
On the IHT issue, as a letter to the Indy points out today, by the time the Tories are back in power, the average house price will be £1M.
123 Do they have clairvoyants as their Letter writers then..
117 see 108
121.
That what Osbornes figures are.
A guess.
Thats the entire point of Browns excercise.
Labour HQ is getting lots of figures and non rich non doms together as we speak.
He’ll rip Osbornes figures to shreds.Reminding the electorate of Tory economic incompetence is Browns key card.
110. The facts as recorded by the coroner were “the two CSOs who arrived at the scene did not go into the water themselves, but radioed for a uniformed officer who did make a rescue attempt, but by then it was too late.”
David Blunkett was critical of the 2 officers and Cameron in my view appropriately criticized the system. While some will argue that CSO’s should not be trained or have the authority to go into the water many of us at the time of the incident thought they should have been allowed to respond.
126.
‘Tory economic incompetence’ - Ha, that’s a rich statement to make. Look at the damage Brown has created with his Ponzi economy! And how much has the Bank of England had to chuck in the Northern Rock black hole?
Did the Six actually lead on Cameron’s speech or the latest Diana-guff?
Nice timing of the DCA to arrange the inquest to start during the Tory Conference. Wonder who leaned on ‘em…?
126. Is this the same Gordon Brown who has consistently failed to get his own public spending figures to add up and is running a £30bn deficit at a time of low unemployment and moderate growth? No lessons needed from that quarter, thank you.
Re Diana. I live in hope that one of these days the Express will run the headline “Diana: who cares?” Some people don’t seem to accept that she’s dead and is going to stay that way.
123 - blimey, I thought month-on-month house price inflation was roughly just 0% at present?
128: ‘Did the Six actually lead on Cameron’s speech or the latest Diana-guff?’
Yes, Dave was headlining. Robinson did quite a good package in fact.
I’m afraid there won’t be very much reaction to Cameron’s speech. For the tabloids it was far more boring than the real news of today … which took place in London at the Diana inquest. Don’t blame me, I’m just stating it like it is. I notice Sky News are leading on Diana.
The Tories had a good conference, but all the interest was already out before Cameron’s speech. And the latter was rambling and lacking in stature. Not the stuff of a PM I’m afraid.
128 Bob. The lead was DC as I expected. Di was 2.
ITV may go the other way.
The Beeb coverage was decent for DC although I thought Nick Robinson took a some of the gilt off the silver by noting that the public had fallen out of love with DC over the summer and reminding them why.
“Not the stuff of a PM I’m afraid.”
Yes, I bet you’re devastated…!
Or possibly you are indeed afraid?
132: I see my brother in Christ has been hitting the communion wine again
I don’t want the sort of person who makes that PCSO jibe as PM. I really don’t like that at all. But then I wasn’t going to vote for him anyway.
Dave leads ITV news too
133 ITV lead with DC.
133 - “The lead was DC” - only lead he’ll get…
126 - Please, leave the spinning for someplace else. Please.
I imagine all of us would really welcome five or six posters who could come on here and be impartial! All of us are pathologically incapable however hard we try and even if we are noone believes us!
What I would be interested in is how much difference a conference good or bad can make to an outcome. This amount of exposure in an ad campaign would be expected to shift quite a lot of stuff. Hard to be precise because it depends on the nature of the product, whether it’s a cut price sale and the size of the company. 3-4% is probably about right
Whether there is any lasting goodwill is calculable but it would need some research. My guess would be that the tax promises are the most long lasting and the feelgood stuff the most short lived
Won’t vote for Brown because of all the race-and-nation stuff - best left for Nuremburg in the ’30s imo - but didn’t know quite who I would vote for. Saw Cameron, thought he was actually intelligent enough not to show contempt for his audience like Brown, and spoke to some real concerns with some sensible attitudes. May well vote Tory on the basis of that.
Voted Labour since 97, didn’t vote before that. I’m a switcher, and Brown and Cameron between them have made me so.
Now wouldn’t it be funny if Camerons care worker he talked about turned out to be a non dom……..
Just seen the speech in full on Sky News’ interactive thingy. Overall 8/10 effort I thought, but goodness me, talking for over an hour without notes or an autocue is a truly remarkable feat - I found myself constantly wondering just how he managed it.
Charlie. It’s nice for a brand new poster to come and share that with us! Thank you.
Mother of God, Andy Coulson could have wriiten Tom B script on ITV news
Tim No, it is the Treasury figures which are a guess and the PS admits this in the last sentence of the letter replying to Osborne.
I am sure it gives us all a warm feeling that those that tax us can only guess who is and who is not paying tax.
141: ‘I imagine all of us would really welcome five or six posters who could come on here and be impartial!’
Well I’m one for starters but, yes, we could do with a few more…
Andy. It’s a technique that actors learn. It’s easier if it’s your own material though and of course you don’t have to be word perfect. I suppose the fear is that you dry up but that’s all
I bet it was hard, but sometimes shorter speeches are harder. After all
“If you want me to speak for an hour – give me a moment’s notice; if you want me to speak for half an hour, give me a day’s notice; if you want me to speak for five minutes – give me a week.” Winston Churchill
re 45 tim here’s one for the rebuttal unit you work for why not calculate how long it takes a 10 year old to drown from first starting to ingest water and then do the calculations whether they got there when he was drowning or still dead. People have been (especially the young) successfully resuscitated after a long time in water before now.
Your posts p*ss me off immensely - are we allowed to say that on here now!
ITV have led on Cameron. Again good coverage.
Conclusion seem to be that this reduces likelihood of election as after good week for Conservatives, Labour would be returned but COnservatives might make significant gains.
From Adam Boulton:
Cameron also hit the spot with three out of four of Sky News’ swingvoters in Redditch.”
Supposedly Redditch is 47 on the Conservative hit list. Labour lose this then perhaps they would be in trouble. ITV Panel on News At 10.30.
ITV Commentator said Cameron proved today he had bottle. Question is has Brown?
Isn’t Redditch Jacqui Smith’s seat? Big scalp regardless of where it is on the target list.
FWIW I do not think it was a speech that will shift the polls up much. The impact of Conservatives in the media for 5 days should have already done that. I expect that the next polls will have halved the gap.
IMHO The speech should have been from a lectern, been shorter and more authoritative. He needed to look more like a Leader and less of a friend.
One point made by Tom Bradby on ITV News is that it looks like Cameron has more upside in a campaign and that is what Brown needs to consider. I remember our Mike making the point in the past that Cameron’s ratings go up the more he is seen.
That said a lot depends on what the Sun, Times, Mail and Telegraph do.
The bookie said that they have closed bets as 2007 was certain.
149/150 - fair comment, guys. Perhaps I’m just easily impressed…
Just heard Tom Bradby on ITN. DC getting a lot of kudos for speaking for over an hour without notes. Trevor Kavanagh also very impressed. As for the punters we’ll see but, as I expected, the TV clips looked good. I’ll be surprised if the poll gap doesn’t come down significantly. And, as Tom Bradby suggested, DC looks like a political performer who could make further progress at a GE.
I notice the odds on a GE have widened a touch. I don’t think they’re very generous at the moment ( 1.52 or so). Having said that a conventional bookie rubbished DC’s speech, said a GE was inevitable and that Labour would easily win! He was pricing his odds accordingly.
ChrisA.
I didn’t realise you had the timeline.
Please post it.
141. OK, a bit of slightly more impartial analysis.
Firstly, like most of the population, I didn’t see the speech live so am only commenting second hand. Overall, it seems a fairly uncontentious effort, with most commentators making a good deal of play about him delivering it without an autocue. Presumably, that was an attempt to contrast himself with Gordon who is a much more ‘planned’ politician. Whether that will work as far as winning respect from the public goes, I don’t know. I can’t see it shifting many votes.
What it will do - and what Brown did last week, but Ming didn’t quite do - is send the troops home happy and confident for the fight ahead, should it come. A line has been drawn under the period when the policy commissions reported, and under the sniping and grumbling that went with some of them. The sense of unity is also no doubt brought about by the possible imminence of an election that no-one wants to be blamed for losing, and which everyone wants to share in the credit for doing well, depending on how it goes.
Will the speech have a lasting impact? No, probably not. The policies for the next election would have been announced one way or another whether they’d been made in this speech or not. Likewise, Cameron’s position as leader wouldn’t have been questioned even if he’d have made a complete hash of it as there isn’t time to change leader - and in any case, it seems to have gone down reasonably well.
The speech needs to be seen in the context of the week as a whole - indeed of the conference season as a whole. Labour received a boost after their week at the seaside; that should come off now as the Tory conference matched it for efficiency and product. It will also have helped to eliminate some of the memories of the more recent, less assured, period.
With my Tory hat back on, I’d be disappointed if the average of the polls from now to Monday shows a Labour lead of more than 5%. Will that be enough for Gordon to go to the country? Only if he’s feeling very brave - I’m still less sure than many other people seem to be, but then I’ve been that for a long time and the market has continually moved inwards. We’ll know soon enough.
Conservative Party Conference broadcast on ITV now! Cameron’s is really calling Brown out!
Once the voters are aware that a GE is in the offing, (they might have twigged by now) then the polls will respond accordingly.
I don’t think Cameron will get the bounce,(maybe an instant response, but short lasting) Brown did, as now voters know its serious.
Whatever the polls say, Brown should still go, he has now got the perfect reason, Cameron’s challange. The Tories can hardly question, why? now can they, which is what Brown has probably wanted all along.
But the most important reason Brown should go, is to prove me right, so I can become even more of a smug git, than I normally am!!
156. As I expected the TV boys and girls impressed by speaking without notes. (Why this is impressive for a potential PM, I don’t know!)
Suspect we’ll get a big divide in the commentary tmw between those who loved the presentation and those who where underwhelmed by the content.
Finally, funny how we treat Bradby, robinson et al as active players rather than reporters- their reaction to the speech appears to matters as much as the content. It’s worth reading dailyhowler to get a sense of how this sort of thing can impact on a campaign.
Personally I don’t think the speech was particularly impressive, nor do I think the content would be enough to change many minds. Interesting that it was Osborne who made the real splash this week. camerons was news-less by comparison.
One thing I don’t understand about Camerons speech is the “Brown can’t do this or that because of EU Law”,when yesterday Davis was saying Immigration will be lower.
If British Businesses want 201,000 Immigrants per year they can get them from the EU countries.
Its EU law.
Have just seen the tory conference broadcast.
Can anyone tell me why it is that the Cons get 4 broadcasts (twice, on two channels each time) when the LD’s only got one?
I’m pretty sure of this because I missed the LD showing, had a look to see when it would be repeated, and it wasn’t.
Before anyone starts, if this happened to the Tories we would never hear the end of it (”BBC bias” blah blah)
How many did Lab get?
I have yet to see all of DC’s speech, but on the assumption that it was a bit light on real meat (i’d been hoping for a series of policy announcements…), does this mean the Tories feel pretty damned certain there won’t be a GE announcement next week? I mean if they are going to have to launch a manifesto in next couple of weeks anyway, wouldn’t today have been an ideal time for a campaign launch?
V surprised to see a lot of acclaim for speaking ex tempore. Preachers do it all the time, and Cameron reminds me of one. It generally means content is weakened, and I think that’s true in this case.
151,
They certainly have.
However without the full facts, but then giving the impression of critising the PCSO`S in such a way in a major public speech.
Seems to me like kicking a lowly paid public servants, just where it hurts, without them having the chance to defend themselves.
Politicans who do this are beneath contempt, acting like a smug know it all jumped up pratt.
Attacking PCSO`S might be an easy hit