Time to bet against an early election
October 3rd, 2007-
Thank you Gord for such a great market
This is not something I’ve done before but I was challenged here last week about my betting and I thought I would reproduce part of my trading details on the “Gordon weeks” betting market. What you are doing here is “buying and selling” the number of weeks that Gord’s premiership will last before the general election.
As I reported here just a week ago I had taken a view that the Labour conference would see an increase in the party’s polling position which would lead to the money going on an early election. My big bet was a sale contract at £42 for 75 weeks.
The price has moved sharply and I managed to get out of my position over the past three days at 36 and 44 weeks pocketing a nice profit. As can be seen I’ve made nearly £1500 already on this market.
Now, following the positive media coverage of Cameron’s speech and the Tory conference I’m betting against an early election by “buying Gordon weeks”. If Brown does indeed go for November 1st the market will close at the 19 week level so I would lose 32.36 minus 19 multiplied by the stake of £22. So the maximum amount at risk is about £260.
But if Brown doesn’t go then I start making money in February 2008 and as each week goes by my winnings will increase by £22. The earliest, surely, if it’s not to be in November will be the first week in May next year which would see a profit of about £220. If it’s May 2009 then I make about £1370 and if Gord goes right up until May 2010 the profit will exceed £2500.
I don’t know what is going to happen but the risk return ratio looks good.
Mike Smithson
MessageSpace Advertising
Spread betting is scary.
Front of the Guardian leads with Cameron goading Brown…
Matt
Think i will be buying your book very soon!
well if it moves the Betfair price then I can cover some of my exposure, but Steven at 1 is right - spread betting is scary
[from previous thread]
303. Much as I am skeptical of Nick’s spin, I think he is not entirely unjustified in predicting an increased Labour majority - remember the polls were showing a double-digit Labour lead just a few days ago.
None of us know how the Tory conference will pan out.
My overall feeling is that the country is relatively content with a Brown premiership: there just isn’t a groundswell of anger to throw the left out, like there was against the right in 1997. Neither is there the huge support for Labour, but still…
It’s very much like 1992 in fact, only in reverse. I think if Brown goes for it he will get a majority between 20-80.
The difference is acute though. If it’s near 20 he is badly wounded, and Labour lose next time. Near 80 and he can coast, maybe even hope for a fifth victory.
BTW Mark Mardell’s BBC euroblog, always worth reading, is very interesting today. He says many journos are predicting a Brown climbdown on the referendum.
Here:
http://tinyurl.com/2gx69w
A ’strong’ PM being almost pushed into an election by his own spin, patheic really (and Woger et al I’d say that if it was a Tory or a Lib Dem PM)
This is Northern Cyprus calling Mike Smithson.
Non Dom status, we’ll shoo it through.
May 2009 has always been where the profits are.
7. That’s not in the script. You should be telling us how poor all the non-doms are really.
I wouldn’t bet a penny on May 2008. Whatever Nick rather lamely says if the polls are bad enough to abort I can’t see the possibility of a 2008 GE. Evidently the punters agree with me. GB’ll be badly damaged and DC will be transformed into the man who single handed stopped the GE. And GB’s been around a long time I can’t see his reputation recovering in a hurry. The Press will never forget and DC won’t either.
I think the odds on November are far from generous but the downside of not going is high so GB may be tempted to go at a lower lead than Mike’s ambitious target. Anything under 3-4 surely suggests no GE although Nick is punting a green light on even steven. I can’t see GB being that bold.
Guardian leads with “Virtuoso” Speech by Cameron!
Nobody knows how well the Cameron speech has played until we get some polls.
In the meantime more bad news for the Republicans in the US. Sen. Pete Donenici is apparently going to announce he is standing down next year. This will immediately make New Mexico a toss-up, and puts another Repubilican seat in serious jeopardy. The chances of a Democratic blow-out in the Senate are growing by the week.
http://blog.washingtonpost.com/thefix/2007/10/sen_pete_domenici_expected_to.html
The Gaylording Ponceyboots speech comes across much better in News at Ten soundbites, than in full.
If Donenenici goes in a good Democrat year NM is not a toss up its a Dem state.
5 My overall feeling is that the country is relatively content with a Brown premiership
You mean Labour supporters are “relatively content”
14. I said “relatively”!
12. Sean T. Agreed. Impressive.
Ha! I think the media are all suckers for believing that the election will happen in 2007. I hope none of them put their reputation on it, because i know it won’t happen. Good for making money though in the political betting space! Great oppos abound!
Well, I can tell you one thing, David Cameron’s speech was not the hot topic in my local this evening. I heard someone talking about the ‘reds crashing’, but that was Liverpool!
Labour’s problem is not generating support; any pollster will tell us that if voting was compulsory, they would walk it. The key question is can they get the support out on a cold winter evening?
9 I agree. If it’s put off this year it will knock out 2008 as well barring a Tory implosion. Then we’re in 2009 and after
16 stjohn - done any betting on the GE today?
Kieran
After John Warner( former Democratic Governor Mark Warner looks very strong there) and Chuck Hagel( former Democratic senator Bob Kerrey may stand) now Pete Domenici. Then there’s Idaho’s Larry Craig arrested for playing footsie with an undercover police officer in a men’s room ( the GOP will hold the seat but will have to work it now).
The GOP have to defend 22 seats to the Dems 12 and only one of the latter; Mary Landrieu of Louisiana; is remotely vulnerable. Plenty of the GOP seats are threatened, not least John Sununu in New Hampshire.
If things go really wrong for the GOP the Dems have an outside bet of a fillibuster proof 60 seats.
8.
Even on winnings of £1500 I have included a tax contribution of £25,000 into my budget projections.
Northern Cyprus George.
Tricky one Mike. Frankly I can’t tell which way it is going to go right now.
The risk return ratio is good, but then there is quite some risk.
What was impressive was delivering an hour long speech almost entirely without reference to any notes - showed commitment, bottle and intellect, of course this would not be evident from the brief soundbites shown on this evening’s TV news.
Nick Robinson just on BBC News at 10 saying Brown will have two speeches prepared. One explaining why he is calling a GE the other why he isn’t.
It’s been argued here ad nauseum about the impact of him bottling it. Clearly it would be significant but no way a mortal wound.
If he chooses to go now with poor polls then we could be viewing the shortest suicide vote in political history.
Still weighing up whether, as a parliamentary candidate in a non target seat who has been in place for a year, whether I want an early “short, sharp and swift” 3 week election or another 18 months plus to establish myself as the “clear alternative” to the Tory MP.
Never have I been so interested in the thoughts of Gordon Brown
20 - Indeed. The chances of a Dem net gain of 9 is about as likely as a Dem net gain of 6 was at this point two years ago, and we know what happened there.
Idaho is highly likely to stay with the GOP, although Craig has not resigned as he said he would. However if he digs his heels in I’m sure he would lose to a primary challenger.
There are now 7 GOP seats very much in play - New Mexico, Virginia, Colorado, Maine, New Hampshire, Minnesota and Nebraska. Plus there is the corruption probe into Stevens in Alaska. Should be at least 4-5 net gains for the Dems and possibly more.
Hmm.. Looks like Cameron’s speech is playing well in the media.
Good.
So what will the chicken do? Will he or won’t he call an election?
Re 25, Chris_took, You standing for parliament? Well done. Forgive me though, I do hope you do not beat our man
28. Not likely Benedict, 15,000 behind and all that but thanks (sort of)
Sky News calling Cammo’s speech “virtuoso”.
I’ve watched as much as is healthy and I go along with Nick P. An election in November Labour to win by between 80-100 seats and the next polls will show Labour still ahead by 5 or 6 points. Cameron’s performance was reasonable but he doesn’t yet look as assured as Blair and Brown is head and shoulders up on Blair at the moment.
The sort of research needed to find out if he’ll win is pretty easy and reliable. I saw nothing today that would make me think that the Tories are in with a shout. If Gordon calls an election you can be sure he’ll win. A good speech is miles away from the country choosing you as PM. If Tory boy is around can you remind me of our bet?
25 Good man but don’t think Damien really has much to fear.
No Benedict.
He never intended to call one.
19. Peter. No. No bets so far today. But I’m watching developments like a hawk.
Like Mike I took a very nice sell position on Gordon Brown Weeks. But I’m holding it to balance my extravagant assault on William Hill on a 2010 election.
32. I’d agree with you Ted, 5-10 year campaign “plan” (whoops, that sounds quite Brownite) and all that.
Mike - I follow your very sound logic, but I remain convinced we are set for a 2007 GE - Brown has just allowed the situation to gather far too much momentum. Of course were he to be less than 4% ahead in the polls this weekend, he would simply have to backtrack, but I expect his lead to be at least 6% average.
From your own perspective, your potential losses represent only a small part of your profits and your reverse bet on Brown Weeks therefore appears far more palatable.
It is interesting and important that the Ten O’Clock news has put a positive spin on Cameron’s speech, particularly as earlier BBC radio reports were less than lukewarm. I think this bulletin is the key conduit for political information to potential voters, therefore it could well have a bearing on the next opinion polls. I hope the BBC spin has done enough to kill the notion of a November election stone dead!
“Sky News calling Cammo’s speech “virtuoso”
Do you remember how the pundits used to wax lyrical about Kinnocks performances? It made not a jot of difference. What the public want is a half decent Prime Minister not a virtuoso speech maker (if that’s what he is).
38. Yes, indeed, but Kinnock reduced the Tories to a minimal and ultimately counter-productive majority in 1992.
If Cammo does the same as Kinnock the Tories will be happy.
34 Don’t throw away your 2010 GE betting slips just yet. If it’s not to be 2007, i rate 2010 as the best bet, particularly if, as I believe will be the case, Brown becomes progressively more unpopular as the economy starts to falter, which is a near certainty.
Re 29, Chris took, well done for standing though. It is very hard work, but kind of fun in a very masochistic kind of way.
stjohn
I entirely agree that faced with a strong likelihood of losing his majority or bottling it he’ll choose the latter. However, two points need to be pointed out.
First, he has been desperately trying to build his reputation for strength; it was the Party slogan after all! That image will be badly dented. Meanwhile, Labour were representing DC as flaky and insubstantial; I doubt that will be how he looks post a climbdown.
Second, GB came to office with a plan. All the spin from Nick and in the Press was that he wanted an early GE in May 2008. He wanted to present himself as a new PM leading a new Government. He hoped to implement a lengthy pre-election strategy designed to build an image of strength, experience and a change in style( and to some extent policy). Then he could go to a GE magisterially backed by months of solid poll leads.
If he bottles it his strategy will be in ruins. What price a ‘new’ PM in 2009/10? He’ll have to come up with something else and as the Parliament wears on it will look more and more like the fag end of a third administration. Not a pretty prospect.
Nick is probably right that GB should go at even a very low poll lead and take his chances but that will take a huge amount of nerve after this week.
The strategy of putting his fate in the hands of DC was always very risky. Tonight it looks reckless.
Mind you if the needle gets stuck at 7-8 this weekend I’ll be laughing on the other side of my face.
MP for City of Chester on Newsnight: “No campaigning in the next month”
34. Peter, they are quite safe and not forsaken.
re 40 Peter I’m a 2010 man myself as well
39. Sean. It just feels very different from 2005. Then I was just about the only person I knew who was going to stick with Labour. I knew literally dozens who wouldn’t touch Blair with a bargepole. These people -or some of them-will now vote Brown. I also get the sense that Cameron is not rated that highly whereas a year ago he was. This wont have been turned around by a speech. Their best shot are Osbornes tax changes but I dont think they are enough.
43 - really? She has a majority of less than 1000.
Chris A. I sense that you a Tory supporter? I always thought you were a Lib Dem for some reason.
Interesting to see the ITN panel panned Cameron’s speech.
re 48 Roger why? I will vote LD at the next election. If it’s this year I will do it with a heavy heart, I want Dc to do well today to lessen that possibility.
Working until late and only got in half an hour ago so have missed all the news, the soundbites on Newnight looked good for Cameron though.
Taking an oblique tack, the biggest surprise this week was the performance of the right, Fox and IDS were both impressive and they could easily have not been and been divisive. I think it’s partly because we are now so used to the right wing rhetoric from Reid, Brown et al that I no longer see them as being on the fringes as they were.
Have labour made the tory right palatable? Would be funny if that’s the upshot.
48 - Chris A is a lib dem, I think we met at the book launch and a few of us were gathered and seemingly on similar lines (Barnesian was there, can’t remember who else, sorry).
46. Hmmm. Yes.
But I think Brown’s gloss - such as it is, and based mainly on his not being Blair - will wear off quite quickly. e.g. I reckon Brown’s Iraq thing has really backfired. A silly silly move. It reminded people of Iraq - the war Brown underwrote - and it looked like Blairite spinning. Brown even double-counted the troops he was bringing home! Tsk.
A look at Brown’s front bench is also instructive. The anonymous Jacqui Smith, the tedious Alistair Darling, the arrogant w*nker David Miliband, the pensionable Jack Straw - not a single person to threaten Brown’s dominance. A busload of has beens, squits, and non entities.
It ain’t inspiring.
If people vote for Brown it will be with sullen apathy, not enthusiasm. Not a recipe for a huge vote.
50. Chris. I’m not sure I understand. Do you mean you are a Lib Dem supporter but you’d have preferred them to have had time to change their leader?
I don’t see not calling the GE in 2007 is as big an issue as the Toryboys on here are making out and for a variety of reasons. For example:-
‘I wanted to, but the currency of the electoral roll made the prospect unfair to a million voters’ or
‘I have never ever said I intended to call an election in 2007′ or
‘ ‘!
Why does he need to say anything? Why does he need the alternative speech suggested by Nick Robinson? Contrary to George Osborne’s assertion earlier today I have never heard Brown call for a snap election, has anyone else here?
I think myself that an election a little over two years into the term is an outrage and an insult to those of us who voted in 2005.
He may have mobilised the party troops only to stand them down, but does a fire drill necessarily mean there is a fire?
Incredibly positive review of the speech from Brian Wheeler:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/7025958.stm
“It was a highly polished performance - and a lot more measured, serious and policy-heavy than we are used to.”
54 No Roger. I’d would however prefer a more dynamic leader and would considerably more prefer not to lose £250.
Mike, do you bet on behalf of others?
55 - I think there will be some rub off on not going ahead. When the press have been absolutely full of stories of almost imminent election announcements, do you think they will easily forgive the man who fed them a dodgy line? The voters will have picked up on this and whilst it won’t really change many votes. It will reinforce a sense that he is a bit shifty.
46 Roger - it wasn’t about one speech, the Conference was what mattered. The Conservative Party, partly through Brown’s threat but also as a result of some intensive work by Willets to pull together a coherent policy set, has come together. Brown’s success in July-September was to unbalance the opposition, his failure last week was to bring them together this week. Dynamic Cam the Sun called him earlier this week - if the polls do surge up for the Tories he’ll get the momentum.
The question is if a united party with some good populist policies is what the country sees and if Cameron & co can get back to the mid/upper 30’s. IMHO Labour will do well to get it’s 2005 votes in the South, where it does well will probably be in the Labour heartlands. To an extent I agree that now Blair has gone Labour has undergone is own decontamination so some of the “kick them out” passion has gone but there isn’t either the passion for Labour there was.
I think that Gordon will only drop November if the polls are truly dreadful at the weekend. Remember he’s defending 7% not 11% (or 13%), a 3% move to Tories and equivalent drop in Labour by Saturday might give him pause for thought, a Tory lead will kill November stone dead.
59 “….a sense that he is a bit shifty” a sense!!!!
59. It may well have some impact, and it might indeed affect his personal standing but not the catastophic effect some hysterical posters on here are suggesting. I don’t see that Brown fed them a dodgy line, I think all the frenzy has been generated by the media, in particular the TV media. I think to an extent Labour may well have been swept along on the tide of this hysteria, but I repeat I have only heard Brown unwilling to discount an Autumn election, he has never pitched the idea publicly himself!
Have I missed the post-speech Ave It 07 rolling poll? I’m sure that’s the one Gordon is really waiting on.
Cracking interview just now by Paxman with Peter Riddell and an animated and entertaining psephologist.
Also just saw a further clip of GB on the Newsnight footage. I’m beginning to discern my animus towards him. He appears shifty and avoids eye contact.
I am aware of his sad childhood accident and deplore cheap shots in that direction. But to me he does not succeed in being engaged or manage to appear sincere in most interviews. I know this is an art, at this level but it counts and I suspect also reveals something of the character.
62 - There is absolutely no way he would have pitched the idea publically. Prime Ministers do not muse about elections, they just call one. If you think that the journalists on every respected newspaper and broadcast outlet are ramping this idea without ‘credible sources’ then you are a tad naive.
re 64 wasn’t Peter Kellner and John Curtice?
62. Whenever there’s a buzz like this in the media its usually because they are being briefed off the record. Just think when the first stories about Charles Kennedy’s job being in doubt started circulating, despite nobody in the country thinking anything bad of him. It’s because word of his alcoholism had gone round and Lib Dems had whispered to the media that they were concerned.
That said, I still can’t feel the media can be too upset with Brown. They clearly ran with the rumours for their own ends and they know Brown’s job isn’t to provide them with a good story - if an election isn’t in his interest he won’t call one and they understand that. The worse that will happen is the negative vibe media types will get from not getting an election will make them a bit less sympathetic to Brown. The public at large won’t care.
Saint Norman
It’s all been got up by the Press has it! Too many senior Cabinet Ministers and too many senior Party officials have talked to too many members of the Press to get away with that one!
Who decided to bring forward the NHS report to tomorrow when it could be made to Parliament next week if it wasn’t for the need to clear the desks for a GE? Why has Whitehall been given instructions to prepare for the Comprehensive Public Spending Review being brought forward by two weeks if it isn’t for the need to prepare the ground for a GE?
Saint Norman, you’re too good for this world.
A theory on poll benchmarks:
General Election 2005: Lab lead of 3% = Lab maj 48
Average September polls: Lab lead of 6% = Lab maj 108
Any Conservative Lead: No Election Until 2009
Labour lead of between 1% and 3% : No Election in 2007
Labour lead of greater than 3%: November 2007
Somethings going wrong here in that I find myself yet again in agreement with SeanT, Cameron’s speech works well when edited for the news. However I dont think that the speech has changed anything it wasnt good enough for that. Whether we will have an election this year is still very much an open question, most pundits are ambivalent at best. The pressure is coming from some elements in the labour party machine and some of Brown’s younger advisers, many cabinet ministers and other senior figures prefer next May or later. The speculation has been let run for far too long but outside of the Westminster beltway the effect of not having an election would be minimal though it would undoubtedly raise tory morale as they would feel they had achieved some sort of victory. The tories have been rather unfortunate in the diana nonsense leading all the tabloids tomorrow, perhaps labour’s lucky touch keeps running.
Mike’s spreadfair strategy seems sensible even if he looses out with a November election.
Brown doesnt have to “announce” a climb-down. Labour can just go into next week slowing winding down the stories and the press will go off the boil. As we go further into October the likelihood recedes until it is zero.
If he needs excuses, there is Foot & mouth, blue-tongue the mail strike, 1,000,000 missing voters, students not registered, etc. No end of possibilities.
I think other posters are right here in that:
1) Brown can walk away from the expectation of an election without saying a word. More likely he will just start getting on with the business of Government.
2) All the episode will do is take a little of the sheen off his image. Not quite as strong as people previously thought and not quite as decisive.
Just seen tomorrow’s headlines - broadsheets cover Cameron but not the most positive. I think they are spoiling for the election. Mail only covers it inside but strong leader column for Conservatives(already online)
66. Chris A. Quite right. Thanks.
65. Sadly I have to agree with you, extremely naive and a complete moron to boot!
Doubtless the Labour party has used the media to do their bidding for them, what political party doesn’t? Nonetheless I think Brown has a legitimate defence if no GE is called for the reasons stated!
MBoy
No end of excuses and no one will believe a word of them.
seanT @ 53 re GB in Iraq backfiring. Indeed, it is possibly the most inane photo-op since Cameron in Rwanda. Sometimes you wonder whether anyone in any party hq knows anything at all about politics.
72. Spot on. No lasting negatives but it will probably take away from the (what was always going to be temporary) glossiness of his honeymoon.
69 Depends on the 3% - that’s margin of error stuff and Labour has dropped that in campaigns before. Perhaps if it was 37% Labour 34% Cons, but 41% Labour 38% Cons squeezing the Lib Dems would be dangerous IMHO as the LDs would recover in campaign and Tory vote probably harder than Labours.
68. I don’t dispute decks have been cleared so that a poll can’t be called if the time is seen to be right, but the interpretation of why this has been done is media speculation. No senior party figure has confirmed this to be the case, least of all Brown. My key earlier point is if no election is called why does Brown need to make any statement- as he has said nothing to suggest he was ever going to do so, despite the circumstantial evidence. The nub of my argument is to contadict the implications on here that Brown will have to make some grovelling apology for leading us all up the garden path, which is patently not going to happen!
74 - Yes he has a defence, I am not sure that it would wash though. Massively ramping the possibility of an early election initially for your own cynical partisan interest, but not squashing it flat when the initial speculation failed to acheive anything. Combining that with an desperate stunt to try to dampen coverage of your opponents that massively backfired. And on top of that to claim that you are only interested in getting on with the job. It is risible, it is fake, it is depressing and he will suffer for it. The Conservative Party will make absolutely certain he does.
To do a Jack W
Meanwhile in the Times an article on the gloss coming off Brown in the media’s eyes
http://tinyurl.com/38fg3k
one snippet “The Prime Minister’s penchant for calling certain journalists in the early hours of the morning and taking them to task does not look terribly prime ministerial. It is irritating some in the press corps who thought that he was bigger than this.”
jfsl
He can walk away without a word, can he? Wait for PMQs on Wednesday. Until the No 10 Spokesman gives an answer at the daily lobby briefing he’ll be hounded by the Press. The moment the signal comes, it’ll be wall to wall ‘Brown backs down from November GE’.
He won’t get away with it.
in the abscence of any channel 4 polls i can do something about the dearth of data by reporting that a popular Spurs message board that i frequent has been running an election poll today the results are:
Con 46%
Lab 42%
LD 6%
As the demographics of Spurs supporters is grounded in herts, essex and the outer london boroughs, I take this as incredibly encouraging, I would wouldnt I, it’s a landslide for Brown in November!
For what little it’s worth, my commute across London takes two buses and two trains. I’ve not overheard a single comment or conversation about a general election (and not much about Ken vs Boris). I don’t think the great British public will revolt if Gordon soldiers on.
81 - It doesn’t take a genius to work out which wounded journo Cavendish had in mind. The Times may make Brown pay during an election (if Murdoch approves).
83 Well now I’ve heard everything
80. I still don’t see the lack of a 2007 GE will be seen as a massive climbdown, irrespective of what the Tories say! I suspect their response will be as has been seen on here a lot of ya-boo insults, and much ‘chicken’ calling, which will only serve to turn everyone off. That said I agree they hit the spot perfectly on the Iraq debacle!
Blue Moon: I’m sure he will be taunted and he will come back with something along that line.
As I’ve said before I have a mandate and I’m getting on with the business of government and then probably accuse the opposition parties of a cheap stunt calling for an election.
I don’t say this with much relish I despise the man but its standard Brown. ‘Plausible deniability’ (or not so plausible even) is one of his favourite activities.
NBC News poll (of Republican voters) re Republican canndidate. Headline numbers:
Giuliani 30
Thompson 23
McCain 15
Romney 10
But the follow up question looks even more significant:
Q: Who has the best chance of beating Clinton? Result:
Giuliani 47
Thompson 16
McCain 14
Romney 8
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21114419/
replace ‘that’ in first para with ‘the’
Labour are about 8% ahead in polls that were taken prior to a successful Conservative Conference. There may well be a bounce for DC and the Tories, but most people will agree that Labour will maintain a lead into next week. So a GE with a Labour majority then? Perhaps.
Two things against this. One, Gordon Brown may be punished for calling an unecessary election. Two, Labour’s lack of activists in whole swathes of middle England. I just saw Chester on newsnight and the contrast between the Labour MP, who seems completely inactive and the Conservative PPC, selected last Saturday, who is getting his message out in spades was very interesting and could be the weakness in a complacent Government that feels it has already won!
By the way Chris Took, congratulations on being a forlorn hope PPC, I have done it too and it is an amazing experience how ever far back you finish. Keep smiling!
87 - In my experience the attack you want to press home is usually the one you dont shout at full volume it is the quiet thing you say almost as an afterthought. If Brown is seen to climb down I suspect the Conservative response will be something along the lines of:-
He has bottled out
He is afraid of us
and incidentally it’s not terribly Prime Ministerial to be playing politics with the mechanisms of democracy when you are supposed to be getting on with the job.
The first two are to effect an immediate response and the third for the long term effect.
See the pictures of soldiers forced to stand near him to provide a photo-op. If looks could kill…
Apart from the accountant’s double count, why 1000 (250) soldiers? Why not 1001 (251) or 999 (249)?
Gordon Brown’s behaviour has been disgraceful, childish and desperate.
The media is like a dog. They can smell Brown’s desparation.
40 Peter from Putney I agree if the GE is not this year then 2010 must be favourite as the problems that will arise next year and 2009 need to be dealt with and a track record built up that is not just gimmicks.
I have always thought 2010 but the momentum recently has made 2007 difficult to ignore and discount. But if it doesn’t happen, and it may be Brown’s best chance, then the longest option seems value.
Look, let’s get the facts straight for once. I have no axe to grind either way but the plain truth is that Gordon Brown has never once said or even hinted that he will call a General Election this year. All this speculation has been whipped up by scribblers in the media because it sells papers, and by certain Tories, probably for the purpose of mischief making.
If the Prime Minister does not call an election then what’s the big deal? He never said he would call one so let’s all calm down and stop getting over-excited. The last General Election was only 2 years ago and the Labour Party have a mandate to govern for the next 3 years so let’s let Gordon Brown just get on with running the country.
Talking of Spreadfair (to pull things back to the thread title) there’s an interesting development on the seats market.
Only £2 at 336 to buy, the next price is 360 (£25) then … nothing.
Are the seat markets finally coming into line with the polls?
91 The first two ya-boo responses you have suggested if used by the Tories will grate on everyone.
I don’t want to demean what has been a good solid week for the Tories- for starters the conference didn’t deteriorate into the usual bun-fight. A populist tabloid agenda as proposed this week I suspect will play well to marginal voters. I didn’t see Cameron’s speech today as being anything better than workmanlike, but there again Brown’s effort last week was total sh!te! The one real negative for me was wheeling John Major out to moralise, a man who as discussed yesterday, is, for his past hypocricy disqualified so to do. A good week, lots of positives and only one negative (Major) should mean a poll bounce which means no election which in turn leads in itself little lasting damage to Brown.
Evening all just back from a great win at bar billiards tonight . I doubt whether GB has ever favoured an election this year though I have no doubt that many of his ministerial and other close colleagues have been pushing him hard on this . I just don’t think it is in his nature to go this early so soon after taking over the long awaited premiership . If there is no election called next week , he can say and correctly that he never personally even hinted that there would be one . Yes there will be calls of chicken etc but in political terms these will soon be forgotten and it will be a long slog to possibly a 2009 election or more likely 2010 and who knows what the economic and political climate will be then .
95. How is taxing flights a “populist tabloid agenda”? The Conservatives have released a range of policies; some will go down well with the tabloids, some won’t.
As for John Major, I’d agree he can’t moralise on family values. But he has every right to criticise a successor for manipulating our democracy for his own purposes, especially when it involves our troops.
95 - The first responses will work if not overdone.
To suggest that the Conservatives are persuing a tabloid agenda is incredibly wide of the mark. I think also if you look at it the media is beginning to sit up and take notice, I think you can be sure that voters are too. I also think you will find that most people out there who are not rabid politicos have more respect for Major. I think the fact that he has not been popping up every 5 minutes to rubbish his successors as PM or leader of the Conservatives gives him considerable gravitas.
97 Exactly! The election that never was has been cancelled. Go back to work everyone, nothing to see here.
Cameron’s “Yo Blair” moment, per The Times:
After finishing his speech, Mr Cameron turned to members of his shadow cabinet, seated on the stage, and asked “Was that all right?” His voice still picked up on the microphone, he could be heard asking the same question of his wife, Samantha, as she joined him, before adding: “I love you babe.”
Finally, he said: “Aah.. I’m knackered.”
97. I thought the spin was that the airline and not the passenger were to be taxed to ensure full planes? Not populist? As for just about everything else it ticked every box on every tabloid editor’s wish list. More prisons, less immigration, no early release, £1,000,000 IHT threshold, no ID cards, no HIPS, stop scroungers dole money, a referendum on every EU treaty, blah, blah, blah. All these policies may be fine and valid but don’t insult me by disputing they are tabloid demands fulfilled. They might also win the Tories a future election!
98. Please see 100.
Good night!
I think a major problem for Cameron, if Brown doesn’t go to the polls until 2009/2010, will be how does he keep up his profile.
Policy groups have reported back and key polices have been made public early. What does he have left to say to keep him in the public eye?
94. All you are describing Cold Fife Liberals is a wide spread which currently lacks any value.
IGindex are currently offering a spread of 328-334 on the same market. The best value to buy is with Igindex at 334 and to sell is with spreadfair at 330. The current midpoint on Labour seats is 332. 360 is terrible value, but if you think it likely, as the polls suggest, buy quickly at 334 with Igindex or 336 with spreadfair.
The Treasury letter in response to Osborne says, “All figures are best estimates but need to be treated with a great deal of caution due to the lack of available data or evidence.”
In other words they are guessing. Hardly the stuff of serious rebuttal.
Will are you now saying there will not be an election? And you are now hoping that Cameron cannot keep up the momentum?
105 - I am a Tory voter who until the Labour conference never thought there would be a 2007 election. As I said earlier I don’t think Cameron did enough today to stop one happening, but if the polls said he did, I’m wondering if he has ” shot his bolt ?”
99. Peter. This wasn’t a “Yo Blair” moment at all. It reflects well upon Cameron. It was an affectionate, off the cuff moment.
I said “aah” when I heard it! “Others” probably thought the same.
No one has provided me with a guess as to how “Others” might vote at the next GE.
103 but if you think it likely, as the polls suggest, buy quickly at 334 with Igindex or 336 with spreadfair.
- Please God no! I still have £2 of my Labour Seats “sell” at 315, having dispened with the remaining £18 at a combined loss of around £135. Still, this loss energised me into increasing my positions on 2007 where I’m all green, with big profits on 2007 (still near certain in my view and where I’m still buying) and 2010.
107 stjohn - I agree.
Off to bed now - more fun tomorrow.
100. Most people in this country (stupidly) SUPPORT ID cards. As for inheritance tax, the people most concerned with that are broadsheet readers, not tabloids. More prisons, less immigration, no early release is just pure common sense and completely in line with sensible Conservative opinion that a free society needs a firm rule of law.
Steve Richards in the Independent, one of the more thoughtful leftish commentators (albeit a ludicrous europhile), believes that Brown will not call a vote - following a successful Tory conference.
http://tinyurl.com/2czhsk
He’s usually quite accurate about New Labour thinking.
Will why would he have shot his bolt? The Cameron plan needs another couple of years to be an absolute winner and that would be preferable. An earlier election is more uncertain and the changes in perception and reality will be incomplete but not insignificant.
the changes in the party and leadership are immense already but more work will follow to entrench the party in the voters’ minds as the government in waiting. The rather lacklustre Labour cabinet will make this little easier, but it will still need hard work, discipline and authenticity.
If the election is in 2009 or 2010 then I am sure that Cameron will be in Downing Street commanding a secure majority.
That is why I say that Brown should go now. It would be inconvenient for the Tory development plan and would make it possibly a two election option. But voter opinion seems much more volatile than many believe.MORI is not a poll i would put any real faith in but when the share for Labour can decline 8 points in three days then anything is possible.
106. I’ve said all along the election would be 2010. The poll leads were never going to be large and stable enough for a prudent man like Brown to risk it.
99/107
It was a rather sweet moment. I struggle to think of what Gordon said after his speech other than ‘End Transmission’:)
114 Surely it was for Brown ” Exterminate them! Exterminate them!”
There won’t be an election
With shaking hands, I type these words: there won’t be an election this autumn. Following conversations today, I am now certain that all the signs point to Gordon Brown giving the idea a miss.
Just seen this very recently posted piece on the respected Benedict Brogan’s blog - he continues by giving his reasons. BB has a habit of being right and his views are likely to move the odds.
God there’s a lot of Tory wishful thinking here tonight (no change from the usual though - and I suspect they’re are one or two CCO people with multiple log ons).
For those Tory posters saying that their conference had been positively received in the Murdoch press and there’s a chance the Sun will back Blairmeron (or whatever he is this nano-second), the Sun’s coverage this week of the Tory conference has been headed ‘Mission impossible - the Tories in Blackpool’
The Blairmeron’s speeach is by no means the ‘best political speech of the last decade’ - it was average.
Brown is going to call an election on Tuesday - Labour know they are ahead in the polls in the marginals. A 23 day campaign stuffs the Tories in Ashcroft funded seats and seats like Richmond Park with a £300,000 budget this year as this amount of cash cannot be spent in the time (even if it was legal). Short campaigns favour incumbents (and Labour almost twice the number of them as the Tories).
Mike was right on a previous thread. Cameron is unlikely to be Tory leader in 2008. Pile in now (assuming there’s a market)…
Ben Brogan’s blog “There won’t be an election”
http://broganblog.dailymail.co.uk/2007/10/there-wont-be-a.html
“Following conversations today, I am now certain that all the signs point to Gordon Brown giving the idea a miss. Why?” He lists the reasons given in the full article.
Despite the bravado, I noted that there appears to be an obsession with George Osborne’s tax plans and a threatened prolonged demolition.
111. The most notable thing he says is “Mr Cameron has been making these points for the past 18 months, but some in his party had refused to listen, mistaking him for a left-of-centre impostor.”
In that sentence he has completely summed up the frustration of us on the moderate wing of the party. Right-wingers caused no end of trouble for the party just because Cameron was talking about non-traditional issues. His solutions have always been well reasoned, firm but fair, free market solutions in the Conservative tradition. But some in the party chose not to listen because they wanted only their narrow concerns talked about. I hope they don’t make the same mistake again.
Yes Peter, me too.
I’m still “exposed” on Labour sell seats but insured from a bad loss by subsequently selling Tory seats. I will get out at a loss come what may, I expect. And if its 2007 that’s also a reverse.
But as you say, what a lot of fun we look likely to have at Chez Michael.
A demain.
117. “Blairmeron”. Oh please. Is that the lamest bit of political punning in history? Or just the lamest bit of punning full stop?
You are a boring little twerp of a man. Go lick a toilet, you astroturfing nonce.
0n the back of posts #111&116 above, I’ve again started buying Betfair’s GE 2010. If Brown misses the 2007 opportunity and things turn sour for him, he’s quite likely to find himself boxed in for some considerable time.
The detailed results from the last Populus poll are now on their website . As always they are illuminating as to where the Labour lead came from . Comparing the vote in 2005 to voting intention now LibDems lose 12 voters to Labour and 6 to Conservative but gain 10 and 5 respectively . Labour lose 13 to Conservatives but gain only 5 in return . The Labour lead is entirely due to those who did not vote in 2005 where they lead Conservatives by 109 to 39 , a massive margin .
119. Today’s Independent coverage of the Cammo speech is quite remarkable. I counted five articles just now that are at least neutral, most of them are actually enthusiastic. Including, incredibly, the editorial.
And this from the most left-of-centre broadsheet!
I know the papers want a close “election” for sales purposes; nonetheless the entire media narrative seems to have turned, quite abruptly, against Brown.
Curious.
117 - “the Sun’s coverage this week of the Tory conference has been headed ‘Mission impossible - the Tories in Blackpool’”
But remember - in Mission Impossible, that impossible mission always get achieved….
124.”nonetheless the entire media narrative seems to have turned, quite abruptly, against Brown.”
Brown’s stunt yesterday and the way he tried to close out the media vs Cameron giving a speech without notes for over an hour?? Your the media man, what do you think?
125.The Brits always like a genuine underdog?
118:
Oh that’s delicious! When the climbdown comes the spin will be: we need time to demolish Osborne’s tax commitments and give the Tories another Black Wednesday. Great stuff. Sounds like Labour are sulking a touch after Georgy Boy outsmarted them and their ‘rebuttal unit’ flopped utterly.
128.I thought the same!
What amazes me, is that they seem to think that all they have to do is trash the George Osborne’s (note that they don’t say the Tories) plans, and its mission accomplished. No bravado or aim to better his plans or come up with an original or alternative tax reductions.
As Alastair Darling shrinks into a stutter and despite all the criticism Osborne has received, the boy came of age this week and managed to look and sound more on top of his brief than the chancellor.
123. Those Populus numbers look very good for Cameron. If the people who didn’t vote last time don’t vote again, then there has been a swing from Lab to Con. So Lab lead would be less than 3% and that’s before the effect of the Tory Conference.
The numbers imply a severe warning for Brown. Even if polls show a significant Lab lead he may need to do an adjustment to exclude people who didn’t vote last time.
126. The Guardian is also quite enthused by Cameron, albeit not as weirdly so as the Indy. It says he made a fluent and virtuoso speech, and has the makings of a prime minister.
Only the pompous old ninny Timothy Garton Ash goes into a sulk - but that’s because the Tories are being mean, to good effect, about his beloved EU.
Freedland, Jenkins and Michael White all give Cameron pretty good or even very good notices - and contrast his chatty style with Brown’s bierkeller hectoring.
Will this have any effect on the polls? Who knows. But mediawise the Tories have won the Conference Season five-nil.
121 - given that you’re among your right wing Tory friends on here, Sean, (and that you’re a famous author) I’m sure you can do better than that.
I would have thought with your worldy knowledge of man and his foibles you could have come up with a decent insult, but then I’m still with my (unmarried) partner and I get to play with my kids every day…
Re 96, Mark Senior, I also play bar billiards from time to time! Well done for the win!
I broadly agree with what you say on election timing, I think that is clear from my posts here.
I do not agree about the fallout.
No matter what Brown has said or done, he is a control freak who rings up editors 6 times a day to complain about the same headline, so if his aides had misrepresented his mood he has had plenty of opportunity to correct that.
What will happen if there is no election is that the print media will all dig at each other for getting it wrong and then they will blame their sources, or more likely their sources boss, on Gordon Brown.
What has been very noticeable over may years of media and political analysis is this: When you are new and fresh like Tony was in 1997, you could have ordered the slaughter of the first born to media acclaim. By 2007, if Tony was the second coming, it would have been met with derision from the press. In short the story changed, and the wind was no longer in Tony’s sails.
Gordon’s miscalculation may have moved him many years on in the good will stakes.
It was difficult to see whether Cameron at any time actually referred to his notes (eg during audience applause breaks). If so, it was very infrequently, if not then he demonstrated a quite colossal feat of memory, the like of which I cannot recall having seen before, all the more remarkable if, as rumoured, his speech was being altered right up to the end.
Alternatively, perhaps he was genuinely just speaking off the cuff.
134. I think there was one moment during the highlights shown on the main TV news programmes where he went back to the table and took quite a good look during a burst of applause.
How am I supposed to keep up with this website when there are nearly 1000 new messages since less than 24 hours ago? How am I supposed to fit in enough time to clear my backlog of unread Marxist textbooks? How am I supposed to find enough time to organise a possible general election campaign as well? And since when has “pissed” been a swear-word anyway? Bah humbug!
99 - Ironically, the four words that will win Cameron the next election were not even in his speech.
Four words that showed the measure of the man - to millions and millions of women voters. And when women vote Tory, Tories win elections.
Four words, spoken when he didn’t know the mike was still on.
“I love you babe…”
re 116, Peter from Putney “There won’t be an election
With shaking hands, I type these words: there won’t be an election this autumn. Following conversations today, I am now certain that all the signs point to Gordon Brown giving the idea a miss.
Just seen this very recently posted piece on the respected Benedict Brogan’s blog ”
On the other hand, you have been able to read that sentiment on my blog all year. Not that I would wish to brag at all, nor even admit to having a blog!
132. I am pleased you have found love, given your many personal problems. It just shows there really is someone for everyone.
139 - much better - just a shame there isn’t anyone for you (and your party).
137 I’m sure it wasn’t, but how long before someone suggests this intimate aside to his wife was contrived. Politics is a dirty game.
Re 119, TJM, “In that sentence he has completely summed up the frustration of us on the moderate wing of the party. Right-wingers caused no end of trouble for the party just because Cameron was talking about non-traditional issues. His solutions have always been well reasoned, firm but fair, free market solutions in the Conservative tradition. But some in the party chose not to listen because they wanted only their narrow concerns talked about. I hope they don’t make the same mistake again.”
Well, The Conservative party has for the most part always been interested in those issues, but what is more, Cameron has the most radical right wing policies to deal with them. The shame is that some in the Conservative party have accepted the caricature of themselves.
138 Benedicts of the World unite, you alone know what is right!
137. Alright, calm down, deep breaths.
141. I was just thinking the same thing! See what New Labour have done to our souls.
And on that note, I’m taking the night camel to Sleepistan. Vale.
Re 123, Mark Senior, “The detailed results from the last Populus poll are now on their website . As always they are illuminating as to where the Labour lead came from . Comparing the vote in 2005 to voting intention now LibDems lose 12 voters to Labour and 6 to Conservative but gain 10 and 5 respectively . Labour lose 13 to Conservatives but gain only 5 in return . The Labour lead is entirely due to those who did not vote in 2005 where they lead Conservatives by 109 to 39 , a massive margin .”
And what odds to we place on the seriously lazy being arsed to vote on a cold and wet November Thursday?
It seriously is all to play for on an early GE, with a serious GOTV campaign. We have more troops than anyone else, the question is can we mobalise them?
122. If it isnt this year I shall just say two words.
The Economy.
Its the main reason why I never ruled 2007 out. If he doesnt go early 2008 then its long to give him an opportunity to ride out more difficult times.
As regards whether the Tory IHT plans dont add up their response should be simple, just stick it out and say they are going to do it.
Sure Gordon does some odd double accounting on British troop numbers. What would he know?
142 - yeh we all know the Tory party is the party of ‘free markets’ - it’s just a shame it’s spent all bar about 11 years of its 170 odd year history supporting the self intersts of the pujadists and on every occassion when it has mattered supported protection over free trade.
Re 136, Johny Looney, “How am I supposed to keep up with this website when there are nearly 1000 new messages since less than 24 hours ago? How am I supposed to fit in enough time to clear my backlog of unread Marxist textbooks? How am I supposed to find enough time to organise a possible general election campaign as well? And since when has “pissed” been a swear-word anyway? Bah humbug!”
Yes i know the feeling, and I ha