It’s four Gordons from YouGov
October 4th, 2007-
And three other polls are on the way
The first of a spate of polls that will come overnight has just been announced by Channel 4 news. These are the figures compared with the last poll from the firm last Saturday - CON 36%(+4): LAB 40%(-3): LD 13%(-2)
Of course this followed the massive coverage of Blackpool and the good reception to Cameron’s speech. Will it be sustained? I don’t know.
Other polls coming up overnight are Populus in the Times, ICM in the Guardian and a survey in the Indy.
My spread bet on there not being an early election is starting to look good.
Mike Smithson
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Channel 4 say their last YOUGOV was Tuesday when the Lib Dem figure was 13 like tonight.
Also they say Labour was then 44 and the Conservative 33.
still less than evens for a November poll
I, personally, think gordan will call an election with these figures - it must surely be understood that these are high Con post-conferernce watermark figures. PB’s Lab MP resident suggested the polls would be level and the election would still be called.
Clearly, Cameron is picking up further floaters from the Lib Dems - who keep dropping lower, lower and lower.
What must worry Gordon, is how much further Cameron could advance in a GE campaign, given how his poll ratings improve whenever he is in the news.
I reckon it’s now 60/40 against.
If the poll was taken on Tuesday then it is not including all the other policy stuff not Cameron and not the Iraq stunt for most of them?
1 - fantastic figures for labour post-osbournes tax headlines.
Witan,
I think dave was referring to the last CH 4 poll before this one as a means of looking at the change. This one was apparently taken entirely after the end of Cameron’s speech yesterday.
Also, this poll was taken over the 3-4 October period.
Is there a chance the poll might not pick up any of the effect Camerons speech might have had on Wednesday afternoon?
Could be further closing of the gap to come..
5 - fieldwork was yesterday and today
these are the good as it gets polls for the tories, we wait with interest for the others
I thinking your writing off to soon Mike, I’m still feeling good.
The difference isn’t the important thing, its the level that is!
I never thought Labour would hit 40% in any poll after all the hype on Cameron. The press are talking it down, because none of them, backed an autumn poll.
p.s. I always twist on 17.
Steven Ronald.
I have a feeling he doesn’t speak for many Labour MPs in marginal seats and, any more fo the High Command. Let’s see how many Gordons ICM give in ?1/2 hour’s time. Mike’s bet looks pretty good to me.
Nice big blue arrow Mike!!
Earlier Mark Senior wrote: ‘Well it got all mad on here this afternoon with Conservative posters ( some of them with a fair bit of political experience and should have known better ) wetting themselves in the ecstasy of fake poll figures leaked by a failed Conservative Parliamentary Candidate . I hope Mr Dale made some money through his false statements , enough to make up for the destruction of his reputation as a serious political blogger’
I just thought this damning, but entirely fair, riposte to Dale’s pretty deplorable display was worth repeating.
I’m surprisingly happy at the moment. 40% Labour is fine, but I’m totally honest: if there aren’t any other polls between now and Sunday showing let’s say a 6% lead then forget it for one more week. And I write that because once the dust has settled from the Conferences Brown could very easily still go for Nov 8th if the polls go back up.
I must add that if 4% lead does prove to be as low a lead as it gets for Labour in the Conference aftermath then that’s great. The problem is that we all remember the 11% and 13% malarki. If we’d not had those then we’d probably impartially say that Labour was still narrowly, but not insignificantly, ahead.
Dave shown visiting a hospital. Election even-handedness already in place in media. The easy days for Gordon are over.
althought the sample for Scotland is small it gives the SNP comfort that we appear to be neck and neck with Labour rather than the 21% difference in 2005.
INHO worse possible result to make a call really, although suprising that Labour is still on 40%. I am not supirsed by The Lib Dems polling, since min the invisible toook over the Party seems to have slunk off into the corner!
From the Archive 2001. An alternative polling method…
Beat the rat
http://news.bbc.co.uk/vote2001/hi/english/newsid_1349000/1349914.stm
I do think that it is a clever bit of political spin for Cameron to write to Brwon asking for access to the Civil Servants at Whitehall to smooth the way for any change of government.
From an entirely neutral point of view that made me smile.
So put DC on tv 100% and DC adds 4% in a week.
3 weeks of 1/3-1/2 of the coverage and I reckon add another 4-5%.
Dead heat on election day in terms of percentage ?
With apologies to Martin Day, GB must be feeling like chicken tonight.
:lol: 
20 Shame he didn’t add as much Gordon.
By the way that Brwon was entirely a typo.
On the whole a good afternoon: encouraging poll, win at cricket, Andy Farrell with calf injury.
The Channel Four News said that the Liberal Democrats were unchanged, however you said they went down 2 points. This is false.
By the way, why does the numbering system on here keep going wierd.
It is clear that 21 was answering comment 19 on my screen but as far as he was concerned it was 20.
There has been a lot of this recently
Strange
NP MP-thanks for answering on previous thread. But, you did say some weeks back that you’d all been asked to help out in Tory-held marginals, or did I read you incorrectly?
So, presuambly now you think your seat is at risk if you’ll be working it. No time at all to help out in the marginals? So, why do you still think there will be an increased Labour majority if you think you may be at risk? (Do you?)
LAB still on 40% - if Gordon doesn’t go now he really will have bottled it.
As Jake says though exactly the wrong number - not clear enough either way for cautious Gordon. Hopefully the other polls will show if LAB are 37-40 (don’t go) or 40-42+(do go) then we can go back to discussing the wisdom of Napoleon’s march to Moscow.
Mike Smithson, if you are reading this - did you notice that Guido has you down as “thinks Gordon will play it extra long, not before 2009.” - I thought you were more evenhanded about an early election and was merely pointing out a value bet?? (+pointing out that 08 didn’t look too clever)
26 Good post KB!
Message to Gordon:
PRESSURE, PRESSURE, PRESSURE
FEEL THE PRESSURE, PRESSURE, PRESSURE
[(c) Hard Fi]
16 - Lib dem figures would be much closer to 20% in any election held at the moment, the result of more impartial broadcasting and greater visibility, coupled with reminding the voters that, in constituencies, it’s not who you want to vote for that counts, it’s who can win. I think it’s a vile system but what can you do?
18 - I think that action is tactical genius. If Brown responds one way he has effectively called an election, the other way he has effectively bottled it. I think Gordon will be fuming at his outriders who have pushed this election speculation because it now leaves him in the position of looking a knave and a fool when he fails to call the election. This is particularly the case with the way Cameron has played it, whether you are a Conservative or not you have to admire the tactics on display here.
I think the election is still on - the humiliation of not going would be far too great. What I’m amazed Brown hasn’t considered is that raising the possibility of an election, and leaving the threat hanging in the air, actually leaves him vulnerable. If such tactics are going to be successful, acting quickly is a necessaity. He’s left too much time for his opponents to regroup.
I think the election is still on - the humiliation of not going would be far too great. What I’m amazed Brown hasn’t considered is that raising the possibility of an election, and leaving the threat hanging in the air, actually leaves him vulnerable. If such tactics are going to be successful, acting quickly is a necessaity. He’s left too much time for his opponents to regroup.
2007 now odds against with Betfair.
What I don’t understand the most, is why Channel 4 describe the poll as “sensational” - it clearly isn’t!!
A poll of Con 39 Lab 37 Lib Dem 12 - THAT would be sensational! But not this…
As I think (SeanT?) pointed out the most, though, if Brown does call at GE he simply cannot know - at this stage - how it will go.
He cannot know how much Cameron will advance during a campaign, given how his media stunts have backfired over the last week.
He’d be gambling. He knows it. So I doubt he’ll call it.
‘The Times’ (Philip Webster) is also pouring cold water on the prospect of a GE. I think Labour is well and truly winding this down now:
http://tinyurl.com/yt3h3c
Again, there is the spin that Labour fancies the extra time to ‘blow a hole in the Tory spending plans’. Clearly, this is the excuse they’ve settled on for the climb-down (though pig’s ears and silk purses come to mind).
I somehow feel GB allowed himself to be boxed in by pre-election talk. How did he allow it to get out of control? Wasn’t he supposed to be the great clunking fist, totally in control?
Now, he goes, and will likely come out weaker than he was.
He doesn’t go, and out goes the great clunking fist to be replaced by Bottler Brown. When he goes in 2009/2010 and Labour get poorer results he will be lambasted as Callaghan did for not going in 1979. For someone like GB who never takes risks, these must be the longest days in his political life. What to do?
So if the LDs aren’t on 13 but would get 20 - where does the 7 appear from ?
35
CH 4 called it a “shock” poll. I don’t know if this is better or worse than “sensational”.
Last price matched for 2007 on Betfair now 2.10.
26 - I think the con figures are more important. 40+ labour in an actual electin is unrealistic. Keeping the Con’s in there 33/34 “box” I thnink is the key indicator.
“their 33/34″, obviously
30 - I dont think they would get a 7% bounce in a campaign. They tend to get about 4. IIRC they were on about 18% going into 2005 and came out with 21/22% So I would guess real LibDem support is probably 16/17% Which would be back to 1992 ish levels…
40 - so it’s time to get back in there are again.
Off to eat.
So Labour still ahead, enough to win in Nov or probably May.
But,
Tories have the “mo” after a good conference.
If you think you can kill the “mo” then you can go for it Gordon. If not probably it’s best to wait. Let the Tories lose focus have a bit of a fight again and do it in April. No face lost in waiting as poll lead show you would win.
Following my own logic - these headline figures, taking into account a post-conference bounce, look to me like the Cons are still in their box.
38 Harry Flashman “So if the LDs aren’t on 13 but would get 20 - where does the 7 appear from ?”
A Focus bar chart?
Its all in the sizing.
Someone on betfair very confident gordon will say “no”!
I think it’s 60/40, so I’m backing when it hits “2.5″ to cover myself!!
Just an aside - the last set of polls before the 2005 GE was called showed Labour only just ahead of the Conservatives and were similar to the actual result. Of course, there is no guarantee that history will repeat itself so I guess it comes down to how Brown rates himself in a campaign with Cameron
ICM 3/4 Lab +3
YG 5/4 Lab 0
Populus 3/4 Lab +2
NOP 3/4 Lab +3
Mori 3/4 Con +5
2.12 now on betfair…..
35- casino royale- sometimes you can do some quite sensible and readable posts- it would be nice to see more of these.
Steven - not really, the election will turn on a handful of marginal seats and the Tories have outspent Labour here. Gordon won’t care about the headline figures as much as the key marginal indicators, as C4 said like Finchley etc.
As I said on the previous thread, both sides can claim victory in this poll.
I chicked out.. I needed my £50 back! Bloody energy bills..
Not £3 positive everywhere
Phew! Covered myself!
Casino Royale I reckon it’s more like 80-20 against. Brogan knows the other polls…
So the worse that could happen to Gordo, would be, (if yougov is correct) his maj would be 80/90, poor ‘ol thing. Back in the ’70’s I wonder what Wilson/Callaghan would have given for a majority of 80/90. As for John Major struggling on 20, slowly watching his majority trickle away, 80/90 would seem pretty good.
43 They don’t need a 7% bounce from Populus or ICM figures , so it all depends whether you believe Yougov or Populus/ICM what bounce is required .
38 - I said where in my post.
43 - Yougov are the least lib dem friendly, others will give an average closer to 18% at the moment, add on that 40% and allow for the Yougov anomaly and you’re easily there. It could even be higher, reaching the 2005 level by polling day, so don’t bet your house on a yougov poll where the lib dem figure is concerned.
50. Not least because it looks like someone has just laid £1k at 2.10 - sentiment clearly moving against an Autumn poll now. Strange ‘table’ - overlapping money all over the place!
43 - Whoops, add on 4% not 40, even I’m not that optimistic!
What is the latest adte he can realistically have an election on? November 8th? then 15th, then 22nd, then 29th? Surely December impossible, but late November?
£1k avail at 2.18 - someone trying to get out of trouble ?
52
If you as a Tory, think with all the hype Cameron has had over the last few days, a four percent Labour lead is a victory, then the, ‘Germans won at Stalingrad’.
Only a clear Conservative lead, showing the party heading for an overall majority, is a victory, and don’t you forget it.
51. Likewise
Tony Benn on C4 - TOP! - Proper Labour
Still enough of a gap to go if it is really what is happening in the country.
Suppose an election where Tories and Labour both get the same % of the vote, but Labour still get a small overall majority. The final nail in the coffin for the cretinous FPTP system?
64 Rifkind should do the decent thing and offer Benn a job share - Tony could do all the Parliamentary session time and Big Malkie could be MP during the recesses - everyone’s a winner then
54. “Brogan knows the other polls…”
Does he? Do you?
Sorry, but after my Dale experience this afternoon (akin to thinking you’ve got a lottery winning ticket and then finding out you read the numbers upside down) I’m feeling a little more sceptical now
2007 going off the board now - best lay is 2.5 !
60 - Well technically he can have an election absolutely any time he wants. I think December would be totally out, as would his activists thank him for wrecking their Christmas shopping?
Times/Populus (Dale Warning) 3 Gordons
66-
Not in the least. We don’t elect governments we elect MPs as individual constituency representatives. That should not change and certainly the system should not be changed in such a way as to further entrench the parties in the system.
In fact we should go the other way and make it an offence for a party to threaten an MP in order to make him vote a particular way. In short we should get rid of the whips.
Then we might start to see some proper democracy.
When Lab minister’s say “what is the biggest gamble”, I’m not sure people are paying enought attention and not taking account Worst Case Scenario
At the moment it’s a hung parliament (still in gov with lapdog ming). If he waits a year or so then Cameron has proven his ability to push ahead in the polls and the worst case scenario becomes a Con win.
What’s particularly interesting for me, on the betfair market, is that noone has the 1st clue when the election will be, if it’s *not* called by Brown this year.
Seems to be 4.5/1 everywhere.
Surely some value to differentiate there?
(betfair stabilising at 2.1 - prob sensible at this stage)
70-That’s what I meant, in theory there are 52ish options a year, but in practice how many are available?
66 - I don’t think so - I think this has happened before??
66 - I doubt that would happen to be honest, I think Uniform Swing models are terribly misleading. There has never been a uniform swing and there will not be next time. It gives kind of an idea but it is nothing more than that
Telegraph online saying ICM has them “almost neck and neck”
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml;jsessionid=BBYW0C43XBIMVQFIQMGCFGGAVCBQUIV0?xml=/news/2007/10/04/npoll104.xml
(How do I just type “here” and make it a hyperlink?)
Iain Dale has the Times Populus poll as
LAB 39
CON 36
LD 15
Dale caveat now applies! If it is true though it hints that Gordon hasn’t got quite enough to warrant risking his position so will have to put up with having blown his ‘master strategist’ tag. Not important with the public but v important for tory activists (no need for rabbit-in-headlight approach) and LAB ones (I thought he was great but now it seems he’s merely good).
74. No the market is at 138.8% so poor value
Con Home are confirming that 3% labour lead in the Times
L39% -2%
C36% +5%
LD 15% -2%
76,66 In 1951 didn’t Labour get more votes but the Tories more seats? And vice versa in Feb 1974?
The problem now is if Gordon does back down how happy will the public have been to hear all these weeks of speculation (admittedly, media-led) only for it not to happen?
82 - correct
This is like election night - but conducted at a civilised hour.
78
1 go to tinyurl.com and paste the link in - this creates a small link for you
2 type TYPE text Here
so your link becomes
HERE
66-
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_general_election%2C_1951
I think the country’s changed since 1974 though. The “modernisation” of politics would see such a result as a hideous anomaly IMHO and there would be calls for electoral reform.
78. Telegraph has a breakdown on Camerons ratings in recent poll.
75 - Well, Decemeber and January have been used but not since before WWI if I recall. Generally tends to be May/June. April can be used if Easter falls nicely. July is an outside chance. October is the preference for an Autumn poll. It is probable that May/June are the choice months, with October for irresistable circumstances. Winter months from November through to March is there but would only be used in a crisis.
83, Not entirely media led, Brown could have made it perfectly clear from off but chose to a clever dick which has slightly back fired.
Cowardice or not, it don’t look good in the eyes of the electorate.
A Populus survey for The Times confirms the trend. Labour are on 39% (down 2%) and the Tories are on 36% (up 5%). The LibDems are on 15% (down 2%).
Other findings:
He has what it takes to be a good Prime Minister
Cameron up eight points at 38 per cent since a week ago
Brown down three points at 56 per cent
Campbell- up three points 22 per cent
He has the answers to the big problems facing Britain
Cameron- 31 per cent - up one point since last week
Brown- 39 per cent– down eleven points since last week
Campbell 20 per cent– minus four points since last week
86 b*gger - I forgot it won’t show
step 2 use a tag starting “” then TEXT then “”
no speech marks required - hopefully this works and it will be helpful to you - if not I give up!
85 - These opinion polls are more exciting than the whole 2001 GE!
Although in any case Gordon will ignore all these and concentrate on Labour’s own secret private polling SSSSSSH. He may also take note of Ave it polling information.
Sky seemed to suggest a one point labour lead for ICM (usual caveats apply). Any news from The Indy Com Res one?
92. I’m guessing that still didn’t come out right. Are there angled brackets involved? It seems to throw a wobbly when anyone tries using them as it doesn’t seem to differentiate easily between one in the text and the one added implicitly by the html at the end of the post.
I think the one thing that is absolutely certain from almost every poll in the last few months and that is that the Lib Dems are suffering big time.
95: Guys i’m sorry I asked. Actually the copy/paste thing works fine…
2007 now back to 2.04 on betfair..
The big problem here for Brown, IMO, is not so much that the Tories are clawing things back after their conference. I
96 After Labour week and Tory week, so what?
These figures look pretty good for Brown and I think the election will probably go ahead.
surely the fact that cameron has such a positive effect when in the news means gordon has to be absolutely certain of a landslide. even if the tory bounce only lasts a week can he really risk a 3 week campaign with only 5%+ when the risk is that DC could pull a rabbit out of the hat on tv. we all know gordo is utterly useless at presentation and 3 weeks in the spotlight, post conf speech outcomes, changes the risk/reward hugely.
Con plus four, plus five! We got the big m.o, baby!
The big problem here for Brown, IMO, is not so much that the Tories are clawing things back after their conference. I think the real problem for Brown is his Iraq stunt. That IMO, may have undone a lot of the work Brown has done over the last 3 months, to show himself differant to Blair. This may have been Brown’s “Grammer Schools” moment.
Even in Populus the Lib Dems are down 1/5th on where they were at the start of April 2004.
Translated to a GE, even with uplift they still come out at 18% on election day.
The Lib Dem bloggers are remarkably calm, almost accepting their fate to lose a chunk of MPs. Resigned to their fate?
He can still go on these figures - I would, if I were him, on the grounds that Labour’s probably not going to improve over the rest of the decade. In two years time, figures like these might seem like a wonderful dream. But it’s a risk.
94 - some Indy guy was on 5 Live reviewing the papers at about 6.40 - he wouldn’t give much away, but implied it was mixed news for Labour (”However, the other polls may be differnt”)
1% ICM Lab lead now on the Guardian website.
103 - I think you are right htat his Iraq stunt was a total disaster. I think it will cause long term problems and the Conservatives tested that out today by highlighting the hospital stunt he pulled today. Yes we can all argue that everyone since the dawn of time has done similar but once the pack are against you it really doesn’t matter.
104 - of course we’re calm. Either Labour will win biggish again and the Tories’ cheerful optimism of the last 2 years will look utterly daft and they will have to have even more navel contemplpation, or, perhaps even with fewer MPs, the LDs will wield more influence in the new party.
The new ICM poll, from random telephone interviews of adults, shows Labour on 39%, Conservatives 38% and Liberal Democrats 16%.
Conservative support has climbed six points since last month’s Guardian/ICM poll, returning to the level it reached in October last year at the end of the party conference season. Today’s figure is also the Conservative party’s highest ICM score since March this year, when it held a strong lead over Labour as Tony Blair prepared to depart.
Oh and the other point, remember the marginals. Thats where the election will be won or lost. Thats where Brown’s majority will be retained or lost. We still don’t have any published marginal polling, but if the national picture has narrowed, then its fair to say things in the southern marginals in particular, will most likely be extremely variable.
Then we don’t know where the loss of votes from the Lib’s will go. Tgus may vary from area to area and even seat to seat.
104 - As ever us LDs will leaflet like mad but hopefully we will at least have learnt our (leadership) lesson.
The scale of the election gamble confronting Gordon Brown is revealed tonight in a new Guardian ICM poll showing the Labour lead has been slashed to one point, a drop of seven points since the Guardian polled at the start of the conference season.
Yeah! Come on Chris! Welcome to Hardball!
ICM
L 39%
C 38%
LD 16%
ICM (compared to last Guardian poll)
LAB - 39 (-1)
CON - 38 (+6)
LD - 16 (-4)
3.5% swing in every poll so far today.
1% ICM? Thats it, then. Its off?
117. You can still lay 2007 at 2.2 on betfair..
This (lead of 2%-4%) is nightmare territory for Brown. Not sufficiently resounding to provide a ‘cushion’ against movements during the campaign, but not so bad as to make deferral a no-brainer.
I now think he will decide against going this year.
Some events which might impact upon the campaign if he does press go:
Future of Northern Rock to be resolved - will the shareholders be totally wiped out? What will be the scale of job losses in the north east?
Lewis Hamilton to win the F1 Championship (probably).
Postal dispute
AVE IT’s POLL REVIEW!
———————
It’s all over for Labour! Con heading for overall majority according to latest trends. Samantha round to no 10 soon to start measuring up the carptes and curtains!
Now that the election is off, there will be no more need for ‘Ave it’s Election Special’!
(Possibly)
OK, that’s 3% in Populus, presumably taken something like Mon-Wed, what presumably is 2% (’almost neck and neck’) in ICM over the same period, and 4% in YouGov, taken Wed/Thur. All fairly consistent, though it was seemingly Osborne rather than Cameron that triggered the Tory bounce. As grumpy says, the overall picture is stable, but both main parties are drawing from the LDs, as you’d maybe expect with two high-profile Lab/Con conferences. Cameron’s personal ratings remain not great, but unlike Yougov’s data these are from before his speech, which might have helped.
The obvious question is whether the Tory bounce will now settle (as I’d expect): if so, we’d have made a mistake if we’d ruled out the election, since even the current ‘bounced’ polls are as good as the 2005 result. I don’t see any reason to rush the decision - let’s let a few days pass and then decide for or against Nov 8.
“Some events which might impact upon the campaign if he does press go:
Lewis Hamilton to win the F1 Championship (probably).”
Huh?!?
The best thing Brown has going for him is that he isn’t Tony Blair and he is regarded as a safe pair of hands.
That might give him a honeymoon boost in the opinion polls, but I am not convinced that will translate into real votes.
It might have worked in similar circumstances for John Major, but Cameron is a stronger opponent than Neil Kinnock and John Major was a new face and a new chapter compared to Brown.
Brown would be foolish to go to the country at this stage.
So with three polls in we;ve got Labour +1, +3 and +4, as far as I can tell these polls were all taken immediately after tory conference, so at the absolute top of the tory coverage cycle.
So remeber,giddy Tory posters, even at this peak, the Tories are still behind.
I’d be willing to go for it under these circumstances. Wouldn’t be distraught if we didn’t but this is about as good as it can get for the Tories, We’ve got announcment all next week that should be popular.
Yeah, screw it, why not.
121; What a laugh ” lets wait a few days and decide” last week we were heading for a 97 rerun! Now were wondering if Xmas eve is do able
124 - Most of these polls will be within a margin of error of 3% either way so surely the reading of this is a statistical dead heat?
119. Also the small matter of an EU summit to thrash out the new treaty / constitution (apologies to SeanT).
121. Nick, surely you’d want consistent polls in stable conditions before going to the country. If this last month’s proved anything, it’s that what goes up one week can go down the next. Even if Labour’s back 6% ahead by next Wednesday (for example), the only thing it would prove is how soft every party’s vote is at the margin. That can’t be a very solid basis on which to go to the country.
pmqs will be fun after gordo bottles it!!! he faces the prospect of reading out all the names of those killed in action followed by a roasting for political stunts, faked photos, breaking civil service rules, blowing his borrowing targets this month, credit crunch questions/Nrock etc etc and then the gteed gloating and accusations of chicken….. it suggests a further DC bounce shortly…….
*IF* and its a big if, Brown still goes for it and the Lib’s do get severely wiped out, I wonder what chance the likes of David Laws and Nick Clegg will defect to Cameron and stand as Tories in the 2011/2012 election?
What’s interesting is that the Labour vote is fairly stable, at 39-40%. That still might give Brown sustenance, as well as the other advantages over Cameron.
110 these are still solid figures for Labour though - Labour supporters should be pleased that 39-40% of people are willing to own up to supporting a tired and weary government.
being rational Gordon should send his troops out to quell all and any talk of an election at this time - it might already be too late but things are not going to improve over the period of an election.
Personally - I say Bring it on! Labour majority
Will GB even show up at PMQs? How many weeks can he get away with doing his Macavity impersonations?
126. Nope. It’s VERY likely Labour are ahead to some degree…
oh and i forgot the questions about the referendum, foot and mouth, bluetongue, postal strike, etc etc
128
Actually if he were bright then Cameron would tend to play down any of that sort of behaviour in the Commons, make passing reference to the fact that Brown had decided not to go to the country and then go straight onto the attack over matters of weight. That would surely play better in the country than needless gloating.
PMQ preview
Gordon: Er oh i dont know er tony can i hide behind you
Camo: LOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOL
Not sure why people think a 2007 election is now off.
These three polls give figures for Lab / Con / LDm of roughly 360 / 255 /10. If you factor in the recent poll values for minor parties that changes to 357 / 238 / 8 (with the SNP doing well in Scotland).
Even 357 for Labour is a majority of 44. That’s easily workable even to get the European Treaty through and would set Brown up for a 2012 post-Olympics vote.
Personally, I still think Brown’s going to go for it.
131 my post got chopped so now it looks like I want a LAB majority - oh the shame of it
all I meant was LAB majority below 20 and Dave in for 10 years minimum come 2010/11
Telling paragraph from the Guardian poll article:-
“The Brown camp was not tonight signalling that plans for the election will be definitely pulled in the wake of these polls, but his election team were suggesting more strongly than before that its private polling in the key marginal seats showed the Conservatives doing comparatively well.”
If that is the case then Brown will not risk an election surely?
ICM 1% lead. Sometimes its just good to be alive
127: no, I think Labour has a modest but stable underlying lead, and that we’re in a position to build on it so we should. But I’ve posted enough for today - back to preparing for it!
135 agree but im sure a backbencher would oblige ( just after the question from the labour benches “would the PM join with me in congratulating my local group on nulab stooges who have successfully spent some more money on something…”) just to rub it in
Remember, the polls with the smaller Labour leads are the ones with the smaller samples. On top of that, the YouGov poll (the best for Labour of the three) is the best “post-Blackpool” indicator - some of its polling happened today.
141 - Nick I know you want the election just to see the return of ‘Ave it’s election special’!
Mew
well I’m mopping up the 11/8s as fast as the come on Betfair. What an exciting day. I’m feeling much better now.
121. “I don’t see any reason to rush the decision - let’s let a few days pass and then decide for or against Nov 8. ”
Exactly what Gordon will do.
In fact, I wouldn’t be surprised if Brown kept his mouth shut all Winter
100 & 137
You seem to be ignoring the possibility that there may have been a “tipping point” this week and Cameron gathers momentum.
The data I think that may be most relevant is the personal ratings for the 2 leaders – I have yet to see much of this but the Populous Times data shows a significant narrowing of Brown’s lead over Cameron. Anthony Wells and other “experts” made the point pre Tory Conference that it could take some time (if ever)for Cameron to demonstrate he was a strong leader relative to Brown. Some may consider he has demonstrated his leadership skills when he was under a lot of pressure this week. Also a perception may be growing that Brown has made a strategic error by misjudging the GE timing issue and his stunt in Iraq may have damaged his profile.
Also don’t forget 3 weeks is a long time in politics and a lot can go wrong for Brown.
This ‘this is as good as it gets for the Tories’ stuff that’s being chucked about is surely bunk. Brown was the father of the nation, Britain’s Ronald Reagan, Thatcher’s chosen one, Mr Moral Compass, the man who gave Labour back its soul (or whatever the bloke from Blur said) until about four days ago. That sort of honeymoon (driven by a practically universal media adoration) doesn’t vanish in a trice. There are plenty of people out there still giving him the benefit of the doubt (just as there are others not yet convinced by upper-crust Dave and his easy charm). Both can go up. Both might still have further to fall.
127 - Nick - you can’t say Labour has a stable lead. 3 months ago, the Tories were ahead, last week Labour were 10 points ahead.
Things haven’t been this volatile for years. If Brown calls he is taking a huge risk.
136. “PMQ preview
Gordon: Er oh i dont know er tony can i hide behind you
Camo: LOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOL ”
Just trying to *imagine* what it would look like if Cameron actually laughed THAT much
re 58 yes I don’t understand the overlapping money bit either. Why has no-one picked up the odds on lays and backed at much better prices?
149 - sorry, refers to 141, not 127.
150 whilst making a getsure witrh his wrist……….
hi, im new to this, but thought id just let you guys know that the guardian are reporting a dead heat, 38/38.
I layed against an election at 1.84. just debating with myself whether or not to get out now at 2.24. decisions decisions (i feel like gordon!! thou at least im gunna win;))
Ryan
Blimey - ICM neck and neck.
End of 2007 Election.
Sky: Guardian poll tomorrow showing neck and neck…
What should worry Nick Palmer MP is evidence like this about Browns foot-in-mouth disease:
“He has the answers to the big problems facing Britain
Cameron- 31 per cent - up one point since last week
Brown- 39 per cent– down eleven points since last week
Campbell 20 per cent– minus four points since last week”
In other words, Brown is massively down. Cameron is only marginally up.
As I predicted, this is significant because it suggests Browns standing has been very badly damaged by his Iraq stunt.
How much of the Conservative surge is down to Browns own stupidity?
Quite a bit I imagine. He is his own worst enemy.
154; yeah great isn’t
i am confident brown will blame it all on ainsworths “blakey” moment on newsnight!
re 90 20th century GEs
Jan 1
Feb 3
Mar 1
Apr 1
May 4
Jun 3
Jul 1
Aug 0
Sep 0
Oct 6
Nov 2
Dec 2
156. In addition, I might also add that due to the Diana Inquest and other stuff crowding the news yesterday and tabloids today, I don’t think many people picked up on Camerons speech. Something I sensed in my office, and talking to my friends. It was just noted, but nowhere near as dominant as IHT on Monday and Browns Spin on Tuesday.
Had they done so, I’m confident that Camerons personal ratings - and the Conservative polling figures - would be even better.
re 128 is there going to be any time for questions? There must be crocodile tear condolences for at least a dozen perhaps 20 killed needlessly.
So there’s no election then.
Brown, with all credibility gone, will limp on, clinging to power but lacking authority and respect. Maybe even a laughing stock, certainly despised and ridiculed in many quarters both here and abroad.
The country deserves better.
Grim times ahead methinks as the economy deteriorates, war clouds gather over Iran, and Britain is stuck with a lame-duck Prime Minister.
Would you bet against that?
Can I gloat guys please? PLEASSSE?!!!
I predicted parity at either 37/37 or 38/38 - see past posts for evidence
Can I now get the “Peter the Punter” award for being a daddy?
As a Labour supporter I’m really happy, and I suggest the Tories on here should stop and think a moment.
We have just had our bacon saved. Brown can go anytime over the next two and half years. He can learn from what’s happened, pick his perfect moment when there isn’t a Tory conference, and time it to really suit. It will be a real learning experience for him, and I think he’ll work the tabloids better in future esp. over Europe.
He’s a very lucky man, and we Labourites have had a narrow escape. A few more days and he might have called it, only to have these sorts of polls with defeat a real possibility.
After a few weeks all of this will be forgotten. I know it might not seem that way, but it will.
One thing, I don’t understand why the ICM Guardian poll has changed from +1 to zero in the space of 2 hours??
Anyone explain?
33 - “What I’m amazed Brown hasn’t considered is that raising the possibility of an election, and leaving the threat hanging in the air, actually leaves him vulnerable.”
He’s always had Tony to blame before, from 1994 to that perennial assassination stuff.
He had the forethought to nick the LD policy to giving the BoE all interest rate decisions though, so I’m surprised he didn’t spot this one.
Perhaps that’s why he wanted some LD’s in his cabinet!!
What’s the odds of fixed term parliaments being introduced by 2010? He’ll do anything to take this one out of his hands now.
165. I think the Labour narrative will be that this was all media driven and that Brown was just doing what any sensible guy would do - leaving open his options.
164 i wonder if all those labour mps who allowed him in unopposed (against their better judgement) are now wishing reid or miliband had stood?
163 I absolutely agree, I want to see a fourth term labour government with a solid majority and I dont believe that will happen this autumn. These polls are not disastrous, if at the end of June it was suggested the labour would be polling around 40% I would have been very happy. As Bob Worcester said dont look at the lead look at your own poll level and 40% is more than acceptable. A tactical mistake has been made, time to put it to one side and get on with running the country and showing up Cameron’s conservatives for what they really are.
**Challenge for Conservatives** **Challenge for Conservatives** **Challenge for Conservatives** **Challenge for Conservatives**
Osbourne and team now need to work NIGHT AND DAY to ensure their tax plans cannot be unpicked by Labour.
The Conservatives should take no lessons on balancing the books from a government which has practiced the worst profligacy and run-up the highest budget deficits in Western Europe.
163: “As a Labour supporter I’m really happy, and I suggest the Tories on here should stop and think a moment.
We have just had our bacon saved.”
I was expecting some backtracking and bullsh1tting but that just takes the p1ss
163 & 168: How on God’s earth can Brown’s humiliation be good news for Labour? He has just lost his magic and handed Dave a huge victory
ALL - there is now no way Gordon can win a general election now or any time in the future.
It is just a matter of time until Camo walks into No 10 with the OVERALL MAJORITY.
Its just like 1983!
169 “Osbourne and team now need to work NIGHT AND DAY to ensure their tax plans cannot be unpicked by Labour.”
He needs to back his figures certainly, but if Darling and co seriously think anyone is going to believe a word they say they should have another look at what actually happened with Northern Rock. Nobody believed a word he said until he came out with a cast iron guarantee in front of the nation that he would pay back every penny so noone is going to believe some back of an envelope figure produced by Labour or the “Treasury”. Incidentally the other tactic I would do is to simply pick apart their record i.e this is what Gordon said, this is what actually happened and just rinse and repeat. Labour have a track record of lying in budgets etc time to bring it into the open (not too much detail please) and it fits nicely with Gordon’s current reputation for cynical spin be it troops or hospitals.
Brown has clearly demonstrated what an incompetent oaf he really is. His Iraq stunt was soon exposed and has left a bitter taste in the mouths of many people. His teasing and taunting over a supposed election was crass and undignified and totally unbecoming of someone of his high office.
The man is bad news for this country but it looks like we are stuck with him for the forseeable future.
It will get a lot worse before it gets better.