So what is Channel 4’s “sensational poll”?
October 4th, 2007All sorts of rumours are going round tonight about big poll changes following Cameron’s big speech yesterday and the Tory conference.
Ben Brogan in the Mail reports this: “…there are three polls out later - YouGov for Channel Four, Populus in the Times and ICM in the Guardian - all of which show Labour’s lead has dropped significantly (YouGov has it down to just 4 points apparently). I happily acknowledge that I may be about to be proved spectacularly wrong, but I don’t think so.”
Watch this space.
Mike Smithson
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Betfair is still odds on a November poll
Brogan seems to imply that 4% is the smallest lead for labour in any of the polls. If this is the case, then why does this mean the election is off?
Speculating about election results is one thing. Speculating about the next opinion poll is a bit of a bore. Who didn´t expect to see Tories up a few pints and Labour down a few points? Will it last? I doubt it.
Up a few pints! Yes please!
From a Tory perspective, “very encouraging” I would say rather than “sensational”
1 yes and someone put a fair sized sum ( £4k - £5k ) on there being so earlier
Don’t want to be off topic and be the first poster on this thread (though I’m sure I won’t be by the time I get get it typed), but I do want to say one thing (as a general Gordon supporter) to Nick Palmer and other professional Labour types who want an election now:
Look at the electoral mess there was in Scotland in May. Then multiply by ten. That is what will happen if there is a general election now.
Huge numbers of people will be disenfranchised. Postal votes will not get through in time. The electoral register will not be updated in time. The press will be full of stories about disenfranchised old ladies, and the whole electoral process will be left in disrepute. Even the result may be forever in question.
Is that really what you want?
(End of rant)
6 yes. they probably do. they only care about power.
3-Test- well done for calling the youguv poll. I will take a bit more notice of your comments in the future.
8
But not on the scale of roger calling the 10, surely!!!!
bbc reporting polls “down to low single figures” lead for labour
The point is we’re ready. We’ve heard the signal and have been papering our marginals. Cash is being thrown at us from supporters. Councillors (lots of new ones) are rallying round. Activists and CF students are pitching up. We are drawn tense as a bowstring right now AND we have “the big m.o, baby!” (Apols to west wing) AND Lab polling in our marginals gives bad news.
Come and have a go if you think you’re hard enough! Forgot those by-elections from Dover to Sunderland did you? We didn’t!
Peter from Putney: Agree. If there had been a 3% Tory lead that would have been sensational, and would have left Gordon with egg on his face, because there would be no way he could contemplate an election now if there had been a poll showing Labour behind.
As it is now, he will have some agonising days. As I said this morning, I think Labour has to be at least 5% ahead in the polls to avoid an embarrassing result in an early election. He must want 7%, sustained.
Back to basics.
Gordon Brown won’t get a better chance to benefit from his “newness”.
Another 4 years of Cameron is going to reinforce the image of the Tories as the natural party of opposition.
The economy (world and UK) is not certain to be right in May 2009 (the “normal” time for the election).
Thanks Tyson. If I post facts I’m posting reliable stuff. Opinions, your mileage may vary
10. Yes, I just saw that as well. It was reported as a ‘rumour at Westminster’ and we don’t know what ‘low single figures’ means - presumably no more than four, possibly less than that. If so, it would be a seriously brave decision to go to the country.
9- of course you know my affection for Roger- splendid chap, and excellent tipster!!
Nick
Thanks for your reply on your 1997 landslide prediction. Actually you left out one word from your previous forecast. You used to say ‘it was possible but not yet probable’. Now you’re saying ‘it’s possible but not probable.’ Spot the difference.
Nuance?
Sara -UK elections are badly run and unfair - The register is a disgrace and many postal votes are suspect.
The difference between November and February is marginal.
11. Test, I am not convinced that the tory party is quite as prepared as you are making out, however all those hours we all spend knocking on doors etc only have a small effect ( though possibly crucial in a close contest )not saying it isnt worth it but it is not the be all and end all of political campaigning.
Just had a quick look at the Betfair market. Odds on 2007 now out to 1.9ish (quite a big spread) and about £40k staked today I think. Interesting.
Make of this what you will.
I have just received an email from “10 Downing St”
………………………
You recently signed a petition asking the Prime Minister to ” (it was some old petition I signed about 6 months ago”
The Prime Minister’s Office has responded to that petition and you can view it here…
………………………
I wonder why that arrived out of the blue?
When will we hear on these other polls?
YG - if Lab -3 and Con +4 is that a seven point swing to Con?
ha to make things worse all my contacts some quite senior are saying we are on for sunday the 4th of november, I may be totally wrong so please dont bet money on this basis, just for fun
As someone who was calling for an autumn poll even when the Tories were well ahead, I can’t see why these polls should change anything.
1. It could work to Brown’s advantage, no one could accuse him of only going because the polls are favourable.
2. These polls were taken in the aftermath of favourable press coverage, for the Tory Party conference. If Yougov is showing a Labour lead of 4%, then that doesn’t look too bad to me.
3. It would be absurd, for Brown not seek his own mandate, to go into the winter without the endorsment of the voters would be sheer folly.
4. Labour has won 3 GE’s, Labour isn’t going to win ‘em all, (even though I think they will still win this one) losing isn’t the worse thing that could happen, as the Tories found out in ‘92.
5. If the Tories do win, just think of the fun Labour posters will get in a years time, when the shine has come of DC: almost worth losing a GE don’t you think?
Icarus:
What’s wrong with Gordon doing what’s best for the country, rather than what’s best for him?
Rod,
because they have commited to sending a response within a certain time limit after the petition closes. The company running this on behalf of No 10 have been pretty quick off the mark chasing down reponses even if they are only two line cliches.
I have signed half a dozen of these sorts of things for the fun of it and always got a reponse within about a week of the petition closing.
25 hahahahahaha
Test you’re 50% out.
Red Flag
not possible without a change in the law so unlikely.
29 why would it require a change in the law?
With apologies to Bernard Manning, re Hitler and Goebbels in the Bunker in May ‘45;
Brown to Balls: “Ed, I think we’ve f*****g blown it.
With apologies to Bernard Manning, re Hitler and Goebbels in the Bunker in May ‘45;
Brown to Balls: “Ed, I think we’ve f*****g blown it.
Presumably in order to complete the post DC speech polls for publication today, a good deal of the sampling must have been done yesterday afternoon/early evening, i.e. before a number of those questioned had seen him perform on the TV news programmes and certainly before reading about it in this morning’s tabloids. The full impact, therefore, may not be apparent until we see the weekend polls. Wasn’t this the case with Brown last week, where his lead peaked on the Saturday/Sunday?
11. “Forgot those by-elections from Dover to Sunderland did you? We didn’t! ”
do you recall the 10% swing from Con to Lab in one Dover ward and the Tories falling to third place in a Lab/Con split Dover ward in May 2007 too? Or do you recall just the Dover county ward with the swing to Con?
26. but I signed this MONTHS ago.. Sounds like Downing Street is clearing the decks, connecting with the voters, etc…
PfP I thought the Brown figures went the other way over time?
Mike s said on another thread,”An Ipsos-Mori poll where the fieldwork finished last Wednesday and so took in a large part of reaction to the Labour conference and Brown’s speech has just been published on the firm’s website. It shows a margin for Labour of 13%.
It is important to stress that this survey pre-dated the Mori poll that appeared in the Observer on Sunday that had Labour 7% ahead.”
Peter from Putney. No. His lead in the YOUGOV poll published at the w/end was exactly the same as his YOUGOV lead on the Thursday night.
O/T Roger, I was wondering what your opinion was on this. Being Chinese, you can imagine I was extremely keen on the rationale behind IHT reform for precisely the reason that was emphasised - namely, that the family home above all should be protected from the tax man as it represents so much more than its asset value, to families of the deceased, &c. The rise to £1m was, of course, much easier to sell than the Bush alternative of scrapping it altogether, but it does still leave room for attack. Fortunately, as there looks unlikely to be an election, it doesn’t matter and they can change this policy. What would you think of, instead of the £1m limit, simply decreeing that the designated ‘family home’ i.e. one property per person, was IHT-free, then re-introduce lower IHT thresholds on the remainder, more liquid assets + other properties (which by definition are probably money-making assets). This serves the purpose in a much purer sense and, I think, would be even easier to sell to even more people, seeming fairer and more understandable.
Just a thought.
22
Think of it like this test.
Jim and Jane live 100 miles a part. They decide to meet, there are two ways they can meet. Either Jim could stay where he is and jane could travel the 100 miles too Jim. Or Jim and Jane could travel 50 miles each. As the two parties are moving towards each other, you think of the second example. Take the difference 7% and divide by 2.
Why is pbc the best political site ? Ian Dale, who set the hare running, is languishing with a boring story on Arsenal. PBC is dissecting, discussing, dubunking with vigour. Go to make a cuppa and you have to catch up on 20 posts.
Be interesting to see if Brown does hold his nerve and go for it if the Yougov poll does show a 4% gap. If thats as close as Cameron can get with a poll taken during the end phase of his conference then its not looking good for it to say the least.
Don’t often totally agree with Bob Worcester but he’s right about the share. If Labour are still on 40% that’s absolutely fine. Blimey, Gordon would have taken that a few months ago.
My main worry is the volatility …
After Iain Dale’s mistake I’m actually rather relieved so far!
Test: It’s a 3.5% swing from the immediate Labour speech bounce to the immediate Tory speech bounce. Maybe more usefully for analysis, it’s just an 0.5% swing since the start of the conference season when Labour was 5% ahead. I guess you’d agree that it’s been a good week for the Tories with lots of favourable coverage, so it’s reasonable to assume this is a highpoint, just as our 11% was a highpoint last week. The other polls showed lower leads before so will presumably be in the 1-3 range, which are also similar to the pre-conference ratings, I think.
It’s worth checking the sample dates carefully. My impression is that the IHT stuff on Monday went down well, while DC’s speech was not seen as that amazing by the average voter. I’d expect the later samples to be slightly better for Labour than anything taken on Tuesday. Incidentally, that probably means Osborne keeps his job!
Blue moon - I write casually in between other stuff. By all means insert “yet”!
Will the Tories gain Shepshed byelection tonight?
If Labour is going to lose it, I bloody hope it’s Con to gain it and not BNP!
Gallowglass As I reported earlier the discussion on Newsnight with Kellner and Curtis suggested that some space between the conference and polling would give a better feel of the real position.
As someone says above much of the poling out now will pick up people who have not seen the Cameron speech or internalised the policy proposals. A week or so from now will be more instructive.
If Brown uses these instapolls he will probably get it wrong.
39
That how I think of it, if I’m wrong I’m sure someone will correct me.
Surely the point of all this is that these polls (whatever they say) are as good as it is going to get for the Tories?
How is Cameron going to top his no-notes, no-autocue speech? On a unicycle, perhaps?
There polls had to have been done during the conference rather than immediately after. I’d like to see the weekend pools. I never believed there would be an election, and given these figures it needs courage to go to the polls, never mind the info from the marginals. Mc’Cavity doesn’t do courage, so no election IMHO
If its true the yougov poll on Iain Dale showing a Labour at 40% I think thats amazing, I would have thought 37% tops. Libdems at 13%, poor old Ming.
Witan you still spelling my nik with a “W” I see!
Might move me to start spelling yours Wytan
Bolton & ITV news all downplaying election heavily now.
42-NP MP, I think you mentioned some time ago MPs had been asked to help out in Tory-held marginals. Since Labour are apparently on course for a 1997 result,which marginal will you be helping out in? Assuming of course, as you claim , that Broxtowe is an easy hold.
Apologies if you have answered already.
Btw, I’ve asked Mike for a guest slot explaining why Brown may be risking the same fate as this man…..
http://www.titanictown.plus.com/loser.jpg
Independents editor - vague - but thinks Gordon wouldn’t go on basis of his poll tomorrow.BBC R5 6.43
6
Agree with you Sara,but unfortunately we are having to get used to banana republic style elections with New Labour,massive postal vote fraud and then 100,000 votes get trashed in Scotland last May.
As long as they win they clearly don’t give a toss about the process.
By the way … what’s the betting we all end up exactly as we were before the Conference season began?!!!
22 Test. Those figures represent a 3.5% swing from Labour to the Tories compared with last week’s YOUGOV poll.
On the other hand, compared with the 2005 Election result it still shows a swing from Tory to Labour of 0.5%!
Galloglass Apologies. Wytan is quite nice compared to what I have been called by another poster today.
6: they lost but still got the blame. Alex S took wee Dougie Alexander apart on the election cock up
Rod,
its not when you signed the petition that matters, its when the closing date was for it. Many of these petitions are put up to run for 6 months or more.
I have no idea of the details of yours of course but it is entirely possible it could have closed only last week.
55. err… Labour lost in Scotland in May …
43 As you say look at the dates - the IHT stuff which wasn’t going to be that popular as it only affected 6% of the population was responsible for a 7% fall in Labour Lead so stlll waiting for the effect of this mornings media reports.
43
my partisan take on the polls of tonight and the next few days are as an indicator of a worst case scenario on nov 1
what if lab campaign badly and tories dominate the agenda
last weeks big leads show us what could happen if lab win the campaign agenda
so at the moment the high 30s and a 1-4% lead in national vote share as the worst case scenario, i’ll settle for that, come on gordon let’s go for it!
If any poll is giving you 40%, you’d go. Its like not twisting on 15.
Ch4 Results via Dale
Labour 40, Con 36, Lib 13
Labour in 40s Game on
Northern Rock has borrowed another 2.9b from BoE.
Told you that it’d be crazy to call an election. The only time that I thought Brown might was right back in July, then suddenly I came to the realisation that far too much was against it, how it looked, the potential for disaster, the nature of the man etc. etc.
I’ve calmly made a little on not having a 2007 election (I’d got out of a 2007 position earlier). Nothing major but it was fun while it lasted.
I tend to think that most polls lag behind a week or two, you get the quick switchers and then you get those who switch lazily. Not sure what might happen with these either way but we’d need to be in mid October before I trust any sort of poll.
Yep, talk of a 2007 election will soon be like Tony Blair: as if it never happened. And some of Labourites around here really seemed to be looking forward to it, but I fear we will see more and more of this from Gordon - a sparkling talent to disappoint.
Well it got all mad on here this afternoon with Conservative posters ( some of them with a fair bit of political experience and should have known better ) wetting themselves in the ecstasy of fake poll figures leaked by a failed Conservative Parliamentary Candidate . I hope Mr Dale made some money through his false statements , enough to make up for the destruction of his reputation as a serious political blogger .
I wonder whether the C4 poll was all conducted before the speech or whether some of it was conducted afterwards. ? a pre/post DC speech split on voting intentions?
BTW - I delivered all my lessons without notes today, I find they work so much better that way.
All afterwards Blue Moon
65. Is not Labour in the 40s dependent on the Lib Dems getting 13%? Which of course in reality they wont.
63: Now the worst case senario is a small swing (1.5%ish) to the Tories over their 2005 level and a smally or non existant Labour majority.
69. Mark what figures did Dale give earlier?
72. Anthony, your site is down more than it’s up. What gives?
POLL TENSION!!!!!!!
10 mins to C4 news!
+ICM later tonight - ICM is who I listen to….
Just a bit of fun
Baxter says LAB majority 94
Lib Dems 4 Mps
Three firm indicators that a General Election is not happening this year:
1. My Labour marginal MP says No to the idea
2. Still no Labour communication on our estate, pretty well Middle England
3. Midlands News tonight interviewing students at a College in Worcester first time voters, very impressed with DC, wll be voting Conservative. They would probably have voted Labour and Lib Dem last time.
Wonderful opportunity for the government to now legislate for four year fixed terms. Reckon they would get a lot of support, the media and political betting frenzy needs curtailing.
64 The odds favour twisting on 15 if dealers card is an Ace or 10 .
71
I don’t want to be disloyal to Dave but his 4 pages of notes would have lasted me a term.
73 Yes Anthony, I can only access your site for a few minutes each day for the past month. Whats causing the problem?
79 Don’t draw too much from point (3). The ITN panel game a unanimous thumbs down to the Cameron speech last night.
69: Be fair he did add a caveat or two.
73
The Libdems overall % may be 13% but labour’s 40% also includes taclabs, (Labour tactical voters) mainly in the South, they will switch to the Libdems to t’KATO (to Keep a Tory Out) So Labour’s actual % will be no higher than 37%
And if Gordon bottles it resulting in the Tories taking a clear lead again - WHAT THEN?
75 He gave 3% Lab lead for Yougov and 3% Con lead for ICM .
86. If he does bottle in then you get the shopping channel as your next MP Rod.
69 Mark - Iain Dale’s site is about rumour and gossip, it doesn’t pretend to be an authoritarian guide. That’s why when I posted I stuck a warning in capitals; rumour is something you look at objectively then decide whether or not to act on. If he’d posted that a 3% lead was a fact then yes he’d be in the dog house.
The figures were incorrect but the underlying movement was right. You could chance a bit on basis of rumour but it would be a gamble - gosh that’s what this site is about.
C:36 L:40
4% lead confirmed.
80
Thats the point I’m making, if Brown doesn’t go now it would be like not twisting on 15, on 15 you’ve got to go, 16 if your feeling lucky 17 if your feeling brave 18 bloody stupid.
IT’S ALL OFF!
Lab 40 Con 36.
Lab members scared in marginal seats!
No election until 2010!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
LibDems at 13%, poor old Ming, he must be disappointed.
Labour MPs running scared on CH4….
It’s a risk - Brown has to face the fact that this might be the final result.
I wonder how long it will be before some clever person replaces Mr. Callaghan in that famous clip from 1978 with Mr. Brown in 2007 saying the same words with the tagline “Brown Bottled!”
I don’t think Labour having a 3/4% lead is good enough. Not for us Conservatives.
I’m mightly p1ssed at Dale too.
About 20 mins ago a bloke from the Indie (don’t know who) was on 5 Live - he seemed to be saying their poll was “mixed” for Labour.
92 Labour 40 or above! Scared, no way!
Iain Dale is romantic kind of a chap. He just wanted it to be true so much. Give hime a break.
Dismore and Wyatt don’t want it - don’t blame them - for them it is early retirement!!!!
(PS if Lab think they can get anywhere near 40, Gordon should call it - absolute max they will get is 37%)
someone on here’s wish granted, footage of GBs fingernail’s (or lack of) on Channel 4…..good stuff
…. Waiting at the church.
Nick P - Do you want an election?
I am not at all bothered that a hint has not turned out to be fact. I remember a few days ago that respected journalists were being fed lines that election was going to be called etc. So even the pro’s run with credible stories that turn out to be incorrect.
I think 4%’s fine for Labour. IHT proposals fully priced in to that, and add back the 2-3% bounce and you’re looking at a 5-7% lead.
I think this is actually a very good result for Labour. If is work done after a united Tory conference and after a well received speech from the Conservative leader and it still shows a significant Labour lead.
It also follows on some fairly negative coverage of Labour this week and a press that has been more hostile than in recent weeks. Assuming the a Pre-Budget Report would have a few tricks I’m not at all sure that this poll will, or should, put Gordon Brown off going to the Country.
Remember, the Tories need to have a reasonable lead to stop Labour being the largest party and this poll would still give Labour the majority they seek.
4 indicators for a Nov 8th poll:
birds flying in the sky this morning
rain fell before tea time
the tea leaves in my cup made a horseshoe shape
the seventh letter in the seventh word of the seventh sentence in the first paper I read this morning was L
Oh I hope it’s 2010!
100- jimbo- and what lovely fingernails Cameron has!!
As Prof Curtice says, it’s pretty clear that Brown would win in Nov. Still an amazing considering where we were 6 months ago.
It’s a question of by how much and whether it is worth waiting for a bigger win. Interesting times.
85. These were first time unsophistictaed voters, may be more typical than a YouGov panel?
Significant thing is that they were now pro conservative, or pro Cameron.
I aint pro conservative or pro Cameron but objectivity says it must say something, this was the group of voters who have been Labour and especially Lib Dem recently. Mind you you might not expect them to support a party led by two 60+ year gentlemen.
(Sound almost like Edwardian politics that).
If there is no elction this year the Lib Dems would have a breathing space to change that.
My bet on the next election being 2007 is looking reasonable.
Gord will use the postal strike as his excuse for bottling-out…
Psephologist just on Channel 4 News, Professor John Curtis. Isn’t he great? An ebullient firecracker. I hadn’t seen him before until the other evening on Newsnight.
AVE IT’S ELECTION SPECIAL - fair, unbiased, reasoned analysis
————————————————————-
LAB CRUSHED IN POLL DISASTER
It’s all over Casanova for Gordon! With the new poll indicating a clear trend towards Con overall majority, the election is OFF!
Gordon is a 1 term PM who knows he can hang until May 2010. Its all over for Labour. Camo knows that when the election comes it will be 1987 CITY!
LDs are finished - will they get few seats than in 1970. Who comes 4th? SF or LDs?
The Lib Dems can not really be doing that poorly can they?
CH 4
Women voters moving back to Dave.
The run in this evening to yougov was another of the great moments of pbCOM, and why it makes this site utterly compulsive. Well done Mike for giving us geeks such an entertaining distraction, and well done Test for being on the inside somewhere.
I’m quite impressed that Labour is still on 40. Some resiliance there. I actually forecast a 4 percent lead earlier today! Bloke on c4 news said if we look at the poll before conference, the Labour lead was 5. Now 4. So perhaps no change at all!
105. “As Prof Curtice says, it’s pretty clear that Brown would win in Nov”
so the opposite will happen…Prof Curtice never get it right!
When does Ming get taken out the back door then ?
114 AARRGGHH!!
Looking at the limited tables available from C4, how do yougov come up with their “party id” column?
is that from registration information, or a question on how voted in 2005?
Andrea That is true, Curtice is the best contra-indicator there is in recent years.
C4 sends betfair 2007 to 1.97 !
100. Tyson, yes nicely manicured bet he hasn’t done a hard days work in his life!
The most important thing Curtice said was, after the conferences, nothing has changed. Something I’ve been saying for years, its amazing, how politics in this country has set in aspic. There is literally no movement, Labour are in the mid to high 30’s, Tories low to mid-thirties, Libdems, gawd knows, its the doldrums. Only some sort of political cataclysm, is going to break the logjam: what?
According to C4, Labour MPs in marginals have been telling GB not to go. Presumably he’s not been talking to Nick P then!
Seriously, one figure that should be of interest is the Lib Dems on 13%. When the first polls showed them dropping into the low teens, there was a good deal of scepticism here; now there have been a few putting them in that range and it’s reasonable to assume that they can’t be far off the mark.
The important thing with respect to that is the number of Lib Dem seats where the Tories are the main challengers. Even were the Lib Dems to pick up a bit during an election campaign (which they usually do), they could still be looking at dropping at least a quarter of their vote from 2005. Despite the local factors that often work in their MPs favour, that must lead to quite a significant cull - possibly including some big names.
Thanks Anthony. I think YOUGOV is probably at the low end of what GB would go for. If ICM is significantly worse it looks like thumbs down. Martin Day. Get ready for your Labour chicken for November routine.
New thread
98 you can only believe Lab are at 40 if you believe LDs are in the low teens AND non-voters, 2005, will come out in the cold and dark for Gawd.
Not a good bet. Listen to your uncle Ben Brogan.
112
Agree Tyson. For all the differences we all have on pbc we must agree that watching poll analysis on the telly is thin, uninspiring stuff. Professors add nothing to what we already read here. Psephology on the telly is, as Americans say, like kissing your sister.
Earlier Mark Senior wrote: ‘Well it got all mad on here this afternoon with Conservative posters ( some of them with a fair bit of political experience and should have known better ) wetting themselves in the ecstasy of fake poll figures leaked by a failed Conservative Parliamentary Candidate . I hope Mr Dale made some money through his false statements , enough to make up for the destruction of his reputation as a serious political blogger’
I just thought this damning, but entirely fair, riposte to Dale’s pretty deplorable display was worth repeating.
I’m surprisingly happy at the moment. 40% Labour is fine, but I’m totally honest: if there aren’t any other polls between now and Sunday showing let’s say a 6% lead then forget it for one more week. And I write that because once the dust has settled from the Conferences Brown could very easily still go for Nov 8th if the polls go back up.
I must add that if 4% lead does prove to be as low a lead as it gets for Labour in the Conference aftermath then that’s great. The problem is that we all remember the 11% and 13% malarki. If we’d not had those then we’d probably impartially say that Labour was still narrowly, but not insignificantly, ahead.
89 Oh I’m sorry Ted I had falsely got the impression that Mr Dale considered himself a serious political blogger and not a poor mans version of Guido . I could have had a pretty well informed guess at what the poll would have been , I would have said 5% not the actual 4% , just as accurate as the Dale forecast without having all the so called informed contacts he has .
galloglass at 101: yes, I do (and I’ve been consulted, as no doubt have others). But I accept that it depends on the overall picture.
peter2: don’t be silly, I’ll be working my own seat like every other MP. Confidence is good, but not a substitute for work.
Curtice ran the 2005 exit poll. So is not all bad.
Earlier Mark Senior wrote: ‘Well it got all mad on here this afternoon with Conservative posters ( some of them with a fair bit of political experience and should have known better ) wetting themselves in the ecstasy of fake poll figures leaked by a failed Conservative Parliamentary Candidate . I hope Mr Dale made some money through his false statements , enough to make up for the destruction of his reputation as a serious political blogger’
I just thought this damning, but entirely fair, riposte to Dale’s pretty deplorable display was worth repeating.
I’m surprisingly happy at the moment. 40% Labour is fine, but I’m totally honest: if there aren’t any other polls between now and Sunday showing let’s say a 6% lead then forget it for one more week. And I write that because once the dust has settled from the Conferences Brown could very easily still go for Nov 8th if the polls go back up.
I must add that if 4% lead does prove to be as low a lead as it gets for Labour in the Conference aftermath then that’s great. The problem is that we all remember the 11% and 13% malarki. If we’d not had those then we’d probably impartially say that Labour was still narrowly, but not insignificantly, ahead.
Frustratingly, for those who Layed, if he doesn’t call an election, the pay-off won’t be till 3 months hence.
122 - Yougov is always crap re lib dem percentage, it’s expected. I think the figure in an election would be much closer to 20%.
Re 106, in all the excitment I put 2007 when I meant 2009
Labour supporters will cheer 40% and a 4 point lead, Tories will celebrate cutting the poll lead in half.
Both sides claim victory - the election is still on.
117 Yougov’s party ID figures are how people thought which party they most identified with in 2005 but not how they voted . Mike published the figures on here some while ago and they were roughly Con 34 Lab 45 LibDem 15 .
Those on here who are sympathetic towards Iain Dale, appear in the main to be non-punters. As a leading blogger,Iain simply must have known that significant amounts of money would be wagered on the back of his thread relating to the Guardian poll. Whilst punters should always operate on a caveat emptor basis, hopefully he will be more confident of his sources in future.
135
All it means is we are back to where we were before the conferences. Before the conferences, Conservative posters were thick on this site, saying how the conference would have a dramatic effect on their polling figures.
All we’ve seen is a bit of fluff, for both Labour and Tories, which has blown away and put us back where we were.
If you as the member of a three time losing party are happy with that, I suggest you are suffering from, ‘Poverty of expectation’
I’d be cutting my throat.
(And not before time I hear you say)
After four leaders-the last having just completed his third party conference and having given a ‘virtuoso performance’ at his party conference a Yougov poll shows a result that would give Labour a majority of over 80 seats.
The Tories on here would be better occupied in asking asking themselves where it all went wrong. Considering they are facing a dour Scotsman and the poll was taken at the optimal moment for the Tories If I was Brown I would go for it without hesitation. It could hardly be better.
Anatole. I wouldn’t favour excluding houses because it would be open to manipulation and it might encourage people to live in houses far bigger than necessary just to escape IHT. They did a similar scheme with works of art some years ago and bank vaults filled up with paintings that not even the owners looked at.
It’s clear to me that the Tories lift came about because of their tax proposals. The speech wasn’t relevant. I sensed it would be popular at the time and since I’ve had several people tell me how attracted to the proposal they were. Brown can get rid of that advantage at a stroke by suggesting £500,000 tax free. This would be even more popular because it would be seen as fairer and it wouldn’t look like it was favouring the rich
re 29/30 because the law does not allow elections on Saturdays and Sundays and sundry other days. I did post the relevant bit of the Representation of the People Act 1983 two threads ago. Wonder why I bothered!
Roger: “Brown can get rid of that advantage at a stroke by suggesting £500,000 tax free.”
And, many might ask why’s he spent 10 years keeping it well below £500,000. We know the answer.
138 Roger…
Happy to double our Mayoral bet seeing as its all going so wrong for the Conservatives……..
Please advise