Will Dave be part of tomorrow’s media narrative?
October 4th, 2007
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How will the post conference polls look?
Yesterday’s publication by Mori of a poll taken in the immediate aftermath of Brown’s conference speech is a timely reminder of the polling power of the saturation media coverage that such an event provides.
That survey had Labour 13% ahead - nearly double the 7% lead that the same pollster had found a couple of days later.
The instant poll by YouGov after Brown’s speech came up with an 11% margin though that was sustained in the Telegraph three days afterwards.
So what can we expect from this evening’s YouGov poll on Channel 4 news? How much of that 11% margin will the Tories have clawed back and how are we to judge it?
So much is dependent on the next few polls - not just the general election decision but whether Blackpool has provided the base for a Tory recovery. The media narrative is with Cameron at the moment. Good polls will sustain it – bad polls could kill it dead.
Mike Smithson
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Yes Mike, agreed. I can’t wait to see the polls.
I suspect they will show some uplift though it may take a couple of days to actually show up.
Gordon may be caught between a rock and a hard place trying to make his call.
Working on the assumption that a Lab lead of 3% equals a Lab maj of 48, the poll published tonight will have a poll lead double what a poll on Monday may have and that Brown has to win big (triple digit majority) to make calling a November election sound reasonable, that means we need to see a Labour lead tonight and over the next few days of anything ranging between 15% and 20% (which is simply not going to happen). So therefore the next question is: “How does Brown backtrack from a November election without appearing two faced?”
Mike, I seem to have missed this - is there definitely a YouGov poll on C4 tonight?
I’m sure you’re right about the polls, but what about today’s local by-elections? The Tories’ strong showing last week commanded extensive coverage, and surely these will be analysed equally thoroughly. Er, but I don’t know what contests are taking place. Over to Andrea and Mark…
Given the huge swings to Brown post-speech, and the extensive and fairly positive coverage of Cameron’s effort, one could expect the ‘post-speech’ polls to show the Conservatives within a point or two of Labour. With polls taken over the weekend, one would expect the Labour lead to widen again as the speech becomes less fresh in voters minds.
I’m not sure Cameron has the media narrative at all Mike tbh. Diana, and now the latest extraordinary twist in the Madeleine enquiry (Sky News) seem to me to be dominant. The real noise heard from Blackpool was much earlier in the week by Osborne, and I think that’s a bit of a problem for DC. Aside from being able to speak for an hour (blimey there are some people who can do that who one wishes wouldn’t) the content was pretty thin, so the real question here is whether the IHT policy will swing things substantially enough back to the Tories.
My hunch? Polls between 4% and 9% Labour lead over the next 4 days, leaving Brown right on the cusp of whether to go or not. Much will depend on Labour seizing back the news agenda … but everyone is now battling the Diana / Maddy stories.
Let’s not forget folks that for most people politics is a bore compared to real-life (and artificial) soap operas.
4. A Labour loss in darkest Shepshed might attract a surprising degree of attention.
[to Labour Humanist, from last thread]
334. What, the standard of living in the banlieus of Paris? With their 50% unemployment rates? You’d rather live there than America?
Yeah, right. Tell that to the kids who rioted.
I note you choose Denmark as one of your examples. Not Bulgaria, Portugal, or Northern Ireland. Or Greece, or Romania, or Moss Side. Because these other examples wouldn’t work so well, would they?
But even Denmark doesn’t work that well. According to the surveys, Denmark, the richest country in the EU (little Luxemburg aside) would be the ninth poorest state in the 50 states of the USA, if it was a state.
I don’t engage yr arguments cos you don’t have any. You just have a prejudice, and an inability to express it interestingly.
Any ideas of where there are by-elections tonight! I’d guess that areas to watch are the marginals!
Not necessarily tonight’s poll, but I’m sticking with the general post-conference trend being Lab 39-40, Con 35-36. I reckon that will kill of early election talk, even if its 40-35.
40-34 or 41-34 is another matter though.
My prediction for tonight - Cons 36% Lab 37%
4 LOL , the most significant of the few byelections today is the Leics CC Shepshed , a Labour marginal seat in the Loghborough Parliamentary constituency and we can compare the aggregate votes this May in the 2 constituent District Wards
2005 result Lab 2864 Con 2465 LibDem 1356
2007 May….Con 1427 Lab 1139 LibDem 1092 BNP 982
A Labour hold would therefore be a very good result for them on a lower turnout than in 2005 . Will the LibDem vote hold up ? I have no idea how much effort they are putting in this time . What will happen to the BNP vote ?
I think we are reading too much into The Leadership. Conservative is a seriously damaged brand. Even Cameron’s Conservatives made no impact at Ealing Southall. Why change an OK Government for the shower of selfish, part time, chancers that make up the Conservative party, even if lead by St Dave?
7. Shepshed is the big tell today as it was won by Labour on GE day but by a Labour councillor known as Mr Shepshed so the result will be very interesting. Should have gone over to help really but busy preparing for an election.
12. A very active BNP in this area mark. COuld well act as the spoilers.
8 -”I don’t engage yr arguments cos you don’t have any.”
like yours that the health system in the us is more desirable than ours or that you can seriously advance the argument that denmark is a poor country in relative measurement to the vast majority of the us. There really is no sophistication to your views is there?
“You just have a prejudice”
I’ll repost from the end of the last thread…gee, with such amazing insight into how people think and their cognitive frameworks, why don’t you seek an alternative career reading tarot cards on psychic tv, maybe your own end of the pier show, i’m sure it pays more than the minimum wage.
9 The other 2 byelections are a very safe Conservative seat in Windsor and a Scottish byelection in Argyll and Bute for an Independent seat with Con/SNP and LibDem in with a chance .
10. Gotta go out in a minute. So here’s my predictions.
I foresee a weekend average in the polls of Labour 38-40, Tories 33-35. An average gap of 5%. Tricky.
However, I think in this light Gordon will go for it, partly for the reasons Macbeth so ably expressed:
All causes shall give way: I am in blood
Stepp’d in so far, that, should I wade no more,
Returning were as tedious as go o’er.
12. I predict that by election….
… will be micro analysed to death tomorrow
Question: Can anyone please explain how endless pictures of Diana walking up and down coridoors in the Ritz Hotel can have any impact whatsoever on deciding the cause of death?
Or is it just an excuse to:
1) Lengthen the inquest to maximise fees/costs
2) Lengthen the media circus
Given my understanding that the poll results this evening will not allow for liklihood to vote then I think it be surprising if the Labour lead were below say 4%. If the Tories in this first poll get the lead down to 4-5% then they may get some good publicity but above this level probably not. I would suspect those later polls reflecting liklihood to vote to show a much closer position and give Cameron positive publicity.
In earlier threads much of the debate has been what lead (or average) lead will Brown want before going ahead with a GE.
What if the polls which take into account liklihood to vote show a marginal/no lead for Labour and other polls show a significant lead for Labour. Does Brown look at the average? I think he would be reckless if he did!
Picking up from Brit Spin’s comments in the past thread, I think the
approval ratings for Cameron are crucial and may be indicating that the public is polarising on whether to listen to Cameron or not.
Similarity to Blair is a real problem , as many people who became disenchanted with Blair will have had the experience of Disliking Blair but finding him reasonable whenever he talked - leading to more disenchantment and the realisation that it was best not to listen to him.
The tax proposals and show of unity got a good press so I expect that will be worth 3%. If people are still willing to listen to Cameron then he will have added 4% and taken them to level pegging or further.
Anything less than 7% is probably down to people’s views of Cameron having hardend and not bothering to give him another chance (it was a good performance)
18. Amazingly enough, America exerts quite a pull on the world’s poor, though, doesn’t it? Just as much as the “social model” countries of Europe? With their increasingly insupportible “social model”?
Why is that? Why do any of them want to go to America when they could live in lovely Salford, with its vastly superior “social model”?
Even if the figures lie, which they don’t, even if Denmark is as rich as California or Connecticut, that would say a lot in itself.
Where would you rather live? California or…. Denmark?
All that cheese! Gimme.
Actually I suspect you would rather live in Denmark. The most boring country in the universe. Perfect spot for British lefties.
21. I know, these latest Diana/Dodi pics will seize the headlines again.
It’s a national obsession. On the other hand, to be fair these pics haven’t been released before and there is something poignant (or is it macabre?) about seeing these pics taken just before we know she died.
Forget politics as far as the tabloids are concerned … will that affect the Tories? Possibly actually. They are already losing/have lost the agenda.
As long as Labour has a lead of at least 4-5 points, we should still expect an election. After all, Brown will be well-aware that Cameron gets a post-conference bounce, too.
24. Totally unfair. Norway is far more boring as any Dane will tell you.
19 seanT. You mentioned the Scottish play on PB !!!!!!
27. I’ve never been to Norway, but I have suffered the boringness of Denmark.
I wrote about my suffering here:
http://tinyurl.com/2dc8l9
If Norway is worse than Denmark then I weep for the Norsemen of Yore.
25. If an election is called, I don’t think Diana will make much difference.
I thought it was interesting that despite the new Diana pictures, all the main BBC and ITV news programmes yesterday led with Cameron. I think they may well have considered leading with Diana but with a lot of criticism of broadcasting dumbing down etc they knew on this occasion they had to be serious and lead on Cameron.
If an election is called we will be into extended TV news bulletins. Similar considerations will apply as they did yesterday - the election will still receive blanket coverage.
27. Rubbish….Norway is quality and has trolls just like pb.com
26 Tom, I think 4%-5% is the tipping point as regards the weekend polls, 4% or below and he’ll not proceed. 5% or more and it’a a poll on Nov 1. Of course he may be more influenced by private polls of a number of marginals, which we’ll never see.
31 Jimbo.
29. Why do you think those Norsemen were so keen to get over here and settle in Yorkshire, Lincolnshire and Norfolk?
Further to 22 a lot will depend on how the result is presented. If the media were to compare a new Labour lead with the 11% last week then a reduction to 6-7% would look good. But of comparison made with last week-ends c8% then Cameron would probably only receive positive publicity if new lead 5% or less.
34 Theakston’s?
What the polls will not be able measure is impact of Cameron on the TV every day, as would be the case in a General Election. Like him or not, he is a very adept performer in that medium and easily outshines Brown.
In short, a modest post-conference bounce for Cameron could be just that and nothing more. Or it could be the beginning of a more significant improvement in his fortunes following more widespread focus on his performance. Which of the two possibilities were true would not be apparent however until after the election had been called and the campaign were underway.
34. They didn’t really settle too much….it was more like a trip to ibiza or faliraki…..plunder, rape and pillage then back to the homeland to feast off the memories and plan next summer’s holiday
Looks like the election is on (as Nick Palmer knows, the polling is looking very good for Brown), Brown has today been in Basildon:
“Gordon Brown has opened a state-of-the-art heart unit on a visit to Basildon hospital.
Accompanied by Health Secretary Alan Johnston and minister Lord Darzi, the PM officially opened the Essex Cardiothoracic Centre this morning. The £60 million centre opened to patients on 1 July and is one of the most modern of its kind in the country.
Mr Brown met with surgeons in the operating theatre and with nurses on one of the wards. He also took time to meet patients and discuss the treatment they are receiving.”
BTW, the cardiac unit has actually opened 3 months ago…
25Todays Di footage makes clear the real verdict on the cause of Di’s death -hounding by the paparazzi ie the media.
And yes it will force politics off the front page a sthe nation relives the whol ething for the last time.
Rogerh
30. Completely agree once an election is announced.
But yesterday Sky News led where the tabloids were bound to go: put Diana up first ahead of Cameron. The real news was made on IHT I think. Cameron speaking off the cuff is not really imho what will change people’s minds about voting Tory. Incidentally that’s one reason why I think today’s YouGov is important, because any shift back to the Tories will already be well in place.
29. et. al. Norway is a beautiful country. Had a fab 2 weeks skiing there once - gorgeous.
12. Mark, BNP are working the seat hard
41. which resort did you go skiing in?
Somehow I just can’t see GB looking at the next raft of polls and saying, ‘Yeah, but if I deduct X for my conference bounce, Y for Cameron’s, factor in my leadership bounce, which may or may not last, factor in the marginals, factor in those unlikely to vote, factor in those p*ssed off at having to vote in an unnecessary election… Yep, great, It’s in the bag. I’m off to Buck House!’ Is he really about to gamble the thing he’s striven for all his adult life on these sort of variables and calculations? I don’t think it will happen.
39 - That’s what usually happens! They built a bridge near me with local govt, central govt and european money. Very nice too. Opened to traffic about 4 months before some local bod came and actually “cut the ribbon” so to speak.
39 as Nick Palmer knows, the polling is looking very good for Brown
Source please.
41. Yes, and they’ve got fjords. And lots and lots of money. The only country in the world with a pension.
I’ve also heard that Oslo is so expensive it’s actually funny. Which sounds more interesting than “actually quite expensive” Copenhagen.
39 - This being a hospital that opened three months ago. Brown being so cynical that he dragged back a patient that was at the orginal ‘opening’.
47 - Nick Palmer
39, 45 - Indeed. Otherwise you’d get a host of stories (fairly) about ‘this facility is ready to be used, but can’t because it hasn’t been opened yet… rant on etc.’
41. Just on Sky News. Sky News’s audience is about the same as UKTV Style+1. Sky News is a rich mans plaything- it’s political significance lies in the fact that it employs people whose judgement is respected by other journalists, and that because it’s on all the time, everyone in politics watches it. In terms of actual audience it’s insignificant.
39. Iain Dale has more details on this Brown spin story..
I’m going to stick my neck out here..
I reckon the following;
(1) Monday - Most people in my focus group [ my office
]picked up on IHT - they *really* liked it. Not one of my colleagues thought IHT was “fair”.
(2) Tuesday - Most people I spoke to picked up on Gordon Browns Iraq Spin - and didn’t like it (seriously they really thought it was below the belt. Not cricket. Blatant exploitation of troops. As bad as Blair etc etc) Real potential to damage Browns image here.
(3) Wednesday - Camerons speech was less noticed (thank you Diana inquest) but those who did pick up on it, were impressed. Not bowled over, but impressed. Cameron surprised them
(4) Mail/Times/Express/Sun editorals largely positive last few days
(5) Swing voters in Redditch preferred Cameron (although they did watch the speech, to be fair, so may be unrepresentative)
(6) Rediscovered party unity and no internal sniping helps avoid party split stories
I estimate the base situation to be 34/40 Con/Lab. I don’t think the Conservatives are worse than that, or Labour better - in absolute reality. It isn’t 1997/2001 - this Labour government won’t ever match 42% again - and Conservatives will never drop (in reality) below Howards 33% total in 2005, as they have made some progress in broadening their appeal, however marginally, since then.
As a consequence of the above, I expect the gap to close to zero with a 3% swing from Labour to Conservative.
Polls will show parity at 37/37 versus a Lib Dem vote share roughly similar to previous polls.
I think Cameron has shored up his base PLUS added a few floaters here and there. Not many, not all. But some.
Therefore, his maximum theoretical share is ~39% , his minimum is ~34% and I think he will be at 37% in the post-poll bounce.
Discuss.
24 - I’d definitely rather live in Denmark. No contest. Sean, people are just different, get over it.
34. Actually Jimbo that is wrong - there is abundant evidence of large scale Danish settlements in the eastern counties of England - historical records, linguistic, placename, even DNA.
The Danish input into the modern English character is substantial although this is not widely recognised.
Is it usual procedure for hospitals to be officially opened twice. Interesting.
54. Why don’t you then?
re Basildon opening, I thought Labour just announced “new” policies several times, I had not realised that this habit had extended to the opening of medical facilities.
Brown’s favourite tune if he had an ipod “New York New York so good they named it twice….”
Tony Benn to run for Kensington? What’s that all about?
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/7028042.stm
55 - Yup, basically when you take in the Norman influx as well we are all immigrants.
49 Come on, your post starts “Looks like the election is on” - what precisely is your evidence for stating that as Nick Palmer knows, the polling is looking very good for Brown
Just re-stating Nick Palmer’s name just aint enough!
57 - eh? I’d rather live in Denmark than California - I didn’t say I’d rather live in Denmark than lovely sunny Clerkenwell.
Go away you little scrote
53 - Interesting… where do you work that people notice things like that - in my office more typical is ‘Cameron - who’s that?’ ‘Oh, is Brown in charge now… when did that happen?’
56 MB. Not that uncommon. The more so if you get a royal, a senior politicians or a “celebtity” to do the honours.
52. Brown is an idiot. These spin stories will SEVERELY damage him.
Once people realise he’s trying to spin just as much as Blair, they will rapidly conclude he is not different to Blair, represents no change and his ratings will crash.
Wot an idiot.
49. Presumably you mean Nick Palmers “oh so accurate” canvass return from his marginal seat of Broxtowe? Or do you mean Labours private polling which showed “mixed” (ie. bad) results?
61 - Well I presume from the fact that Nick Palmer is very confident of increasing his majority and the number of Labour MPs as a whole that he is fully aware of all the private polling and that the private polling must be very impressive… that may not be the case…
55. I wasn’t being serious old boy but I do prefer Norway to Denmark, its probably cos all the good Danes moved to blighty back in 800 AD
64 On god !! “celebtity”
… Sorry, I didn’t mean Jordan honestly !!
Ha-ha, opening an hospital twice. Well, they announce everything twice, three times, four times, so why not open everything upteen times? What a shower they are.
You couldn’t make it up…
Re 53 and 63. We had a heated discussion at work on Britney’s problems yesterday. General consensus: she is an idiot.
60. A meaningless remark. Can you show me a country where, by some definition, the people are NOT all immigrants?
All humans came from Africa. Everyone outside the Olduvai Gorge is an immigrant. Means nothing.
Stonch, I saw you say you were voting Labour this time (whenever that is…). Seeing as you’ve said you vote all parties, why labour now?
69. Could this mean trouble for Paddy Power ? Gordon could announce an election on Friday, Saturday, Sunday & Monday and they have to pay out on each ?
42. Andrea
Any thoughts as to whether the BNP could gain most from Tories or Labour?
43. - sorry working in the background hence delay! Geilo. Beautiful place.
53. (5) Oh come come. Aside from the disingenuity in suddenly declaring Sky News to be important they interviewed 4 people in Redditch, two of whom looked like Michael Gove i.e. about 3 years old.
56 — actually, yes, it is standard procedure for wards to be opened twice: once for patients and once by the visiting nob. Same with roads and buildings.
They couldn’t leave all the patients queueing in the car park for weeks (or even hours) till Gordon found a free spot in his diary.
Gordon’s speech got the front page of the Sun. Thanks to Dead Diana standing in a lift, Cameron was shunted off the front page. Likewise in the Mail. However, the almost universally positive coverage on the BBC website and radio stations that evening has made Cameron’s speech, and the tory conference in general, pretty hard to ignore. I think the polls will show the parties more or less even on 36/36 or a 36/37 split to labour, but Brown’s Iraq gaffe may tilt the balance in the Conservative’s favour.
59. Apparently, Tony Benn’s granddaughter is already a Labour candidate for the next election. If he did stand, and somehow won (pretty implausible, I know - especially in Kensington! - but hypothetically), that would surely be the first occasion that a grandfather and grandchild had been in the Commons together. Just something for the trivia buffs to watch out for…
78 - If Tony Benn won Kensington then there would probably be only about 10 Conservative and LibDem MP’s left in Parliament.
71 - “Everyone outside the Olduvai Gorge is an immigrant”
77: It’s not where but how they reported it. Apart from C4 news and the Mirror it got good reviews, Brown’s were more mixed.
39 - It is not unusual for places to open for “service” unobtrusively and have an official opening ceremony at a different time. In fact, this is often the case.
There is no parallel with announcing the same funding twice, or the double-counting of NHS spending increases in Labour’s first term, unless the unit had already been “ifficiall” opened by a different passing Labour dignitary.
You’d hardly want to delay the opening of a hospital because a politician had to rearrange their visit, so the opening ceremony date is allowed to be held in flux. Calm down lads.
78. Alasdair, Tony Benn’s grand-daughter (who is not 18 yet) is indeed a candidate but in safe Tory seat
76. Correct. Wards are always opened twice. Once to get the thing actually running, and then ‘officially’. To see the Tory counter-spin on this suggests to me 1. they are up for a fight (which is actually quite good to see) and 2. they are going to play as dirty as anyone ever has.
79 - According to Nick Palmer (from his canvassing and labour party private polling) that is near enough the result of the next general election…
For those bored of waiting for elections or otherwise…
Excellent article by Matt Frei on the New GW
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/americas/7027166.stm
80. You know what I mean!
Really have got to go now. Looking after my daughter. Ciao ciao. Good luck with the polls everyone.
Had a fab 2 weeks skiing there once
impossible - unless your idea of good skiing is to go up and down the same few slopes continuously for 2 weeks.
Fleischer’s hotel in Voss is very nice and makes for a great Winter holiday but there’s not enough alpine skiing in Norway for ‘a fab holiday’, even at Lillehammer.
Your casual use of superlatives is of course revealing in a leftie tub thumper as Stakhanovite tractor production numbers always need a good dash of hyperbole to sell them to the workers.
The IHT policy is bound to lose Cameron the accountants’ vote. They’ll be mega-pissed off when their middle class clients no longer drop by for advice on how to avoid it.
Cameron will remain part of the media narrative as long as Brown continues to tease about the election. The broadcasters are, in effect, already in ‘equal time’ mode to avoid any allegations of bias.
My reading of Blackpool from media perspective is that the correspondents were ready for a new narrative… close election in prospect, don’t underestimate Cameron, is Brown too good to be true?
I think the gap will go from 11 to 5 in the You gov poll.
60. The Norman ‘influx’ was demographically insignificant compared the Norse one - but culturally arguably even more important.
On the polling I suspect that Casino Royale is right - I expect nearly level pegging, this being an outlier in the Tories favour this time.
My hunch is that the underlying picture is something like Lab:Con 39:34 ie both parties improved over 2005, but Labour more so. This will inded be near the mid-point of the two outlying polls if it is near level pegging.
One seriously doubts whether Brown would have the resolve to call an election after such an outlying poll in the Tories favour. However, the polls might not be so good for the Tories…
Latest rumour from Scotland.
A Lib Dem MP joining another party. Not yet clear which party but SNP would seem most likliest.
88. Rubbish, Geilo is a fine resort, spent many a happy winter there,
back on topic…..this election is still up in the air but I do feel that everyone is mobilised now for Tuesday, will people be able to back down
93. Is it Ming joining Labour?
On Cameons approval ratings…
In the last 6 months, Cameron’s Approval has gone from -3 to -22. Why?
Until August, the number of people who said they were satisfied
96- you have forgotten to paste the second part of the Labour brief
53 - I think your bang on,
my only quibble is around whether too many swing voters have made up their minds and not bothered to look at the Tories because their opinion of Cameron had hardend pre conference.
The Tory conference was as good as the Labour one in terms of what it presented, thats why i think neutral observers would view the parties as almost level pegging ( if they were bothered to watch).
97. Perhaps someone felt sorry for the rest of us and cut him off.
94 Geilo is very nice but with about 20 odd lifts and a few KM of slopes it’s not exactly a skiing paradise.
Each to their own but ‘fab’ is not an adjective that can objectively be applied to Norwegian skiing.
Re 53, 90 and 92. I think you are being far too generous to the Tories. I would imagine that in the new polls Labour are at least 10 points ahead. Brown must know this.
88. You really are one of the most obnoxious people on any forum I’ve been. I choose my superlatives carefully, as befitting my academic background but I also won’t have a dope-head telling me what and what have not been fabulous times in my life. The 2 weeks in Geilo were fabulous skiing, not least because I was learning to ski (aged 9), and because much of the time we went on lengthy, wondrous, cross-country excursions. Now don’t be a prat.
Back on topic … 89. actually I do know of one tax expert (Tory) who thinks the Tory policy is incredibly ill-conceived. He reckons it will simply fuel another housing boom, in the way that Lawson’s Miras Madness did … not my words but his.
a little bird has whispered in my ear that the CH 4 poll shows a 3% labour, haven’t got any details but the source is believable.
68 Jack W - agree that not unusual for a hospital to open for business then be officially opened with a bit of a flourish. Unusual though for the same facility to be opened officially more than once.
a little bird has whispered in my ear that the CH 4 poll shows a 3% labour lead, haven’t got any details but the source is believable.
re 29 Quite agree had a fabulous time in Trodheim and Bodo this summer. If you can go and see the midnight sun I’d recommend it - it’s spectacular.
76/82/84
Total rubbish. For three reasons.
(1) Why Gordon? Another minister - like the health secretary, or a junior minister - could have opened it.
(2) Why now? The fact he’s opening it just days before he might announce a general election, after he’s reshuffled his diary couldn’t at all have anything to do with it, could it? No. Course not.
(3) Change? The MOST important point. Gordon has positioned himself as a figure of change. An honest guy. “Not flash, just Gordon”. The real deal. Not like Blair. No spin, just honesty.
If people see he is being misleading and deceitful (however subtly) they will conclude he is just the same, a bit of a tw*t for pretending otherwise and go off him and Labour very quickly.
Mark my words.
84: It’s not dirty, more playing Labour at their own game.
103. JGC - very interesting. Genuine? Or mischief money-making?
97. lol, but no..a greatl long piece of analysis got eaten by something..
Still at least I’ll make it shorter this time!
Basically it saaid that until last month, Camerons Satisfaction rating was always about 30%. it fell off a cliff last month because a lot of Tories moved over to saying they were disatisfied- ended up with only 23% satisfaction.
My assumption is that Conference means he’ll get those back and his approval will be back c30%.
On disatisfaction there’s a longer term trend of his dissat numbers moving from 17% when he start to 27% last autumn, to 33% this summer to 39% in august and 45% in September. Only the last months change is explicable by the wave of disatisfied Tory supporters, so I’;d expect it to settle at about 35-40% after confernce.
A lot of the increase in his dissat number
103. “a little bird has whispered in my ear”
Nick Palmer??
110. Saved by the mystery editor again!
re 83 Andrea will she be 18 in time? Unlikely she’ll get elected but it would be embarassing for her to be twiddling her thumbs waiting to become old enough to take the oath.
102 oh OK then - if you were 9 fabulous is fair enough.
dope-head? no - in fact when it comes to being obnoxious you’re pretty good at it. And you can always tell when somebody is a prissy intellectual lightweight when they start talking about their ‘academic’ background. oh dear oh dear.
102 - On housing, I had not thought of that angle, but you are right that the Tory proposals will only encourage people to look at property as a way of saving for their retirement, in preference to pensions.
If anything one would think that the government should be looking at changes that would cool the housing market (without killing it). Chief amongst these would be changing the rules that subsidise the mortgages of buy-to-let investors (by offsetting the cost of interest payments against the income from rent).
This would do much more to help first-time buyers than fiddling with stamp duty.
103. I understood that the polling is still going on. Can we trust you?
Iain Dale has a potentially MASSIVE scoop…
Guardian Poll to Show Tory Lead?
Sources close to The Guardian are indicating to me that their poll tomorrow will show a Tory lead of three points. If that is true (and I have no way of verifying it at the moment), and the YouGov poll for the Telegraph shows a similarly dramatic turnaround, then it would surely mean that all election bets are off. It doesn’t indicate how Brown will explain the volte face, but that is something for us all to look forward to and relish.
As this site is called “Political Betting” i would like to suggest a bet with minimum downside.
The no overall majority price on Betfair is still trading well over 2/1. If Brown goes it might drift a little but the nearer to an election cover bets may be taken out on this.
IF there is no election then the price is bound to come in as people percieve that GB may have lost his chance.
What do others think??
chaps as always in these situations the source ( not Nick Palmer ) must remain anonymous but I believe it is true. Not money making or ramping on my part
grrrr. … A lot of the increase in his dissat number this month is from Tories- (he had a negative rating from Tories in September) but it’s clear that Cameron is gradually adding to the number on non-tories who are diatisfied with him (but nothing like at the levels of IDS or Howard).
The interesting question is whether it’s because peole don’t know what he stands for. When asked attrubute questions, the main reasons for disliking Cameron seem to be vagueness, insubstantialness, incoherence. It’s quite possible the Tories have answered those questions this month with firmer policy pledges- but are they policy pledges people like?
” re 83 Andrea will she be 18 in time? Unlikely she’ll get elected but it would be embarassing for her to be twiddling her thumbs waiting to become old enough to take the oath. ”
If she’s not 18 at the time of the election period, she can’t stand as a candidate…
Matt.
104 Ted. Not so. It’s not unusual to have a local to do the first honours and then have the main event with a big knob down the line.
This is partly to say that the facility has been officially opened in case no senior figure becomes available, becomes unavailable or cancels.
However it shows the fever pitch that the political scene is at that almost every waking hour of all senior politicians will analysed to death.
114. Erm, well does being a Senior Lecturer and then Senior Research Fellow at a top Uni make me a lightweight …? Hmmm.
Anyway, much more interesting stuff now going on re. the polls or alleged polls.
Brown should ignore these polls, instant poll leads can vanish as quickly as they arrive. The, ‘bounce’ will soon reverse once the GE is called.
124. Has Cameron got bouncebackability ?
105/117: I’m not the source for either, but having predicted level pegging a +3 and -3 look a plausible straddle. Presumably the Yougov is slightly more recent - ICM for tomorrow is likely to be mostly reflecting the IHT stuff earlier in the week.
As for the earlier discussion, I grew up in Denmark and loved it. sean will feel that explains a lot!
HEALTH WARNING
Iain Dale reports he’s been told ICM tomorrow shows a 3% Tory lead
Shepshed by-election 4,7,12. Labours last minute leaflet claiming BNP hard pressing them - must mean one of the others Con or LIBDEM is pressing them. Much more work by all parties than usual (wonder why?) means result will be even more meaningless in terms of extrapolation to General Election unless Labour at least hold their own there
117. If that *is* true, my reaction to that would be almost sexual
Damn - distracted by phone and I’m late with news again
Is the issue of Brown’s promise of “no more spin” going to be the same as Major’s “back to basics”?
An 8 point cut from 11 to 3 Labour lead in the c4 you gov poll would exceed expectations.
Re my previous infomation, checked with the oracle and they have confirmed Iain Dale’s story ( I misunderstood because I thought it was tonights poll) that the poll in The Guardian tomorrow shows a 3 point tory lead. The misinfo was my fault for not listening properly
132. That means Nick Palmers “straddle” is more of a side saddle ?
116 I don’t know how quickly Yougov turn these things round, but I’d have thought that even if the polling has now been done, it would take a few hours to sort the figures out.
120 MORI’s figures need to treated with caution, as the figures for approval/disapproval are not adjusted by likelihood to vote. They will always be skewed in favour of Labour. The trend however is clear. David Cameron’s popularity has tended to decline since the Summer of 2006, commencing it seems, with Labour’s “hug a hoodie” attack.
122 Jack W but to have 1 local opening followed by a cabinet minister and then later the PM is pure spin.
124. But as Mike points out a good poll for Tories could influence tomorrow’s headlines and give Cameron some good publicity in the short term.
95
He already did that in March this year.
126. YOOOOOUUURRR NOT SINNGGIINNG ANY-MOOOORRE!!
135 HF. Let’s just say I’ve been involved in these sort of functions and it’s not that unusual.
That there is a political motivation to it all is obvious. But hey he’s a politician and all parties do it !!
134. Indeed. If the ICM poll is right, will be interesting whether confirmed by Yougov… Presumably ICM would have been doing fieldwork since Tuesday to get a result now?
On the apporval rating- the balance is that there’s a long history of them asking the same question- So you can compare Tory leaders against each other, even if not against Labour.. Camerons decline is not as fast as IDS’s or Hagues, but is has been consistent and in one direction. I think Sept’s numbrs will bounce back, but only to the status quo ante of c-10, then steadily decline again.
I’m not interested in who wins, (although I think Labour will) I believe it is important that a PM has a mandate.
EXCLUSIVE !!!!….
Brown has a party political broadcast booked for Tuesday night apparantly.
Could this be the biggest mistake he’ll ever make !!!
Don’t know if he is committed now or can pull back from the brink.
This is getting exciting.
Matt.
83 - According to the Guardian, today is her 18th birthday, so no problem about standing.
134 Labour have been very successful at repetition of Hug a Hoodie (helped by Heffer & co) and at the “Hello cloud, hello tree” representation. Notice how often Nick P and other Labour posters manage to get in a comment about Cameron’s vagueness (not complaining that’s expected).
Hard though to continue that when there is a distinctive edge as there is now - can claim flip flop but Cameron gave a coherent story back to two years ago which makes that hard to stick.
138. Well I can’t work that out. Surely if, big if, there’s a poll with a Tory lead then Brown has just been saved from making an enormous mistake? Tories would have much much preferred him to go ahead and THEN find this out!
While it would be fantastic news better than I expected (22 above)
I think it is premature to assume the suggested 3% is correct.
123: ‘Senior Lecturer and then Senior Research Fellow at a top Uni…’
When even our most esteemed academics refer to a university as a ‘Uni’ like a character from an Aussie soap one knows the writing is on the wall.
Is it only me, or is anyone else having trouble connecting to Spreadfair?
Hooray!
There is so much bounce and counter-bounce this election is turning into the SpaceHopper duel.
As Ben Brogan said earlier: Tories up, Labour down, election off
if you believe the 3% lead stuff, then go to Hills and snap up the 11/4 on no election while it lasts.
126. Does Danish bacon really taste better in Denmark?
Kind of like the Guinness always tatstes better in Ireland myth. No it doesn’t it takes like road tar everywhere. Doctors should still be prescribing that stuff.
127. Thats frightening if its true as it provides a little slippage room for the Tories before its level pegging and, in theory, all to play for. One of the most important issues for the Tories is to be in the race and slugging it out with a piece of lead pipe. I know it doesnt sound pretty but the public want their oppositions to show their mettle.
Baskerville - mine seems, OK but prices have moved in response to the naked ramping going on here!
148, Baskerville what browser are you using? Cantor can be very iffy with browsers other than Internet Explorer.
147. For goodness sake - it’s called abbreviation for the purposes of quick txt type. Argh!!!!! Uni pple can actually be part of the real world, you know.
Caution needed re. the 3% …
150 the problem is that there are still folk in number 10 who are wedded to an election in Novemeber and the claim about a party political broadcast on Tuesday is very believable
97. “96- you have forgotten to paste the second part of the Labour brief”
What’s happened to that charming ‘Chris from Paris’ who used to post here during the French elections. Can we have him back in exchange for this tribal version that we haven’t seen before.
If the Cons are 3% ahead does that imply a shocking low score for the LDs ? 39/36/15 ?
153. I’m using IE, but it won’t load up. Will try a reboot.
142 - Some of us remember Callaghan did the same and told the country that there will not be an election.
151 - Guinness will only taste worse outside of Ireland if thet keg in question has been handled very badly.
123. How pompous!
If the 3 point tory lead is true, then what would be the ‘real’ figure taking into acount the confrence bounce?
123 well it might I don’t know but you’re quite right the polls are much more interesting.
I really don’t mean to be obnoxious and always regret it if I come over that way but seriously - you’re not the only one with lots of postgraduate qualifications so don’t labour the point. As a final sign-off I will let the libellous comment about me being a dope head go - I’m too pleased with the ICM poll rumours to be upset.
158. No idea then, I’ve just tried it there and it seems ok.
As it is though I;m nto touching that seat market at the moment, way too volatile.
155- I didn’t think you could book party politcals. i thought you were just assigned them in a rota- around Conferences, electons, etc etc. Are people confusing party politcal with Prime Ministerial Broadcasts?
156 Roger, it’s election fever and tribes matter more then. I’m even beginning to think your posts might not be so agnostic - thinking you might be a Labour supporter
159. Sure nobody drinks it here anymore other tourists or using it as stomach lining before a bender….
160. Not really - the accusation was that I am academically lightweight. Just not true in terms of what I’ve done and where I’m at so what am I supposed to do - agree?
Anyway, I’m sure we have much more exciting things to discuss than whether or not Geilo is good for skiing and whether or not I’m a serious academic. Let’s just get back to the politics, which is suddenly remarkable!!! If there is a serious turning in the polls then I just than Gawd Gord found out in time.
I thought Guinness shut down the UK brewery a few years ago and we now we get it shiped direct from Dublin?!
Can we have some expert commentary om these poll rumours from Red Flump, Roger, Icarus and, of course, Nick?
Iain Dale says 3% Labour lead in the Ch4 poll tonight.
I’d have taken that an hour ago…
I think Brown is going to be punished big time for his troop withdrawal stunt that backfired. It was a spin too far and many people are genuinely disgusted by it.
161. Simon I’m no pollologist or what they are called but I personally cant believe the Tories are quite ahead out in the country.
169… Ah, but maybe Iain’s source is jgc off pb.com!