Will Labour polling dampen the election speculation?
October 4th, 2007
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Marginals said to be “patchy and extremely tight”
We are going to have to wait until this evening before we see the first post-Blackpool opinion poll and that should be from the YouGov panel on this evening’s Channel 4 News. But according to Steve Richards in the Independent the prospect of an early election has receded following the Tory conference and reaction to Cameron’s speech.
He notes that Brown’s “inner circle is understood to have become more cautious about an election after studying Labour’s private polling in key marginal seats which is described as “patchy and extremely tight”.
He goes on; “…Labour strategists believe their lead in the polls is likely to be dented by the Tories’ pledge to raise the threshold for inheritance tax to £1m. If Mr Brown pulls back from an election, he will be accused of running scared by the Tories after allowing speculation to mount and making contingency plans to announce, next week, a poll for 1 November. A three-year spending programme and pre-Budget report may still be presented on Monday, nine days earlier than planned, even if the election is off…Some Brown allies argue that it would be better to suffer a short-term embarrassment than rush into an election after just 100 days as Prime Minister without being sure of winning a firm mandate. They are confident the Tories’ tax and spending plans will unravel, but say it would be better to “demolish” them over months rather than weeks.”
Meanwhile there’s more cause for Labour caution from the detail of last Saturday’s Populus poll that had Labour with a whopping 10% margin over the Conservatives. As Mark Senior noted in the overnight thread “…As always they are illuminating as to where the Labour lead came from . Comparing the vote in 2005 to voting intention now LibDems lose 12 voters to Labour and 6 to Conservative but gain 10 and 5 respectively . Labour lose 13 to Conservatives but gain only 5 in return . The Labour lead is entirely due to those who did not vote in 2005 where they lead Conservatives by 109 to 39 , a massive margin.”
So in the best poll by far for Labour from the firm since Cameron’s election the Tories are still winning more 2005 Labour voters than they are losing. What will these figures be like in the latest survey from the firm - due out at on Saturday?
Politicalbetting has record day. Meanwhile figures for site traffic show that yesterday was the busiest ever with 85,520 page downloads. This beats by 2,000 the totals on May 4th this year after the local, Scottish and Welsh elections.
Mike Smithson
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The story of the election is all to do with voter turnout, it seems, so Labour need to motivate it. Two reasons it will go up:
1 - Closer election, more important to vote
2 - Labour supporters put off by Iraq in to abstaining will come back
It could well be that most of the Labour’s increase in the “did not vote 2005″ are Type 2, in which case there shouldn’t be too much concern about keeping them on board. Unless Brown decides to send an extra 1000 troops rather than bring them back, I think they’re likely to stick with Labour through the campaign and in to the ballot box. (I hope so anyway!)
1 Unnecessary election when it is cold and dark.
2 Old out of date register.
It’s going to be a record.
(posted from previous thread)
I agree with Roger that the Cameron speech will have much less of an effect than Osbourne’s tax announcements on the public. However this brings us to the heart of the issue of the disjuncture between what is important to the public, what is important “inside the village” and how these two dynamics interplay with each other.
Let’s be clear: Cameron needed a good speech with a good reception yesterday. But the main reason why was not so that he could convince the public about himself (most people, even if they catch a few snippets, would not really care about it), but rather to nip in the bud any potential internal dissent that might have threatened to emerge.
Conversely Brown, if he does not call an election, will not be bothering most of the voting public at all, who do not know about an imminent election and would not think that one is necessary. However the “bottling it” charge could stick and have some impact on his internal standing amongst MPs and particularly activists who have girded their loins for an autumn election.
So fine, both men are concerning themselves with the “village” at the moment, and you could accuse them of missing the big picture. The question you have to ask is: how much can internal dissent cause a more general malaise? I think the IDS example proves a case in point, as he was still relatively popular amongst the grassroots for a long time while the crisis around him was going on. However by the end, the fact that he was not commanding the support and more importantly the respect of the PCP, made his exit easier to swallow. If not firmly managed, a leader *can* run the risk of letting “village” issues spill over into a general perception that his standing has fallen.
To this extent, whilst I have constantly argued that Brown not calling an election will only end up being a footnote to the history of Brown’s tenure, in recent days I am beginning to think that the tactical error in over-egging the talk of an election, the stirring, really, could bounce back on him in a long, round-about way, partly through his own party.
One can but hope!
I don’t think anyone really knows in this febrile atmosphere. Steve R was probably just regurgitating Ben Brogan’s guessing. A lot of the talk coming about marginals seems to be Tory spin anyway - desperate not to have an election.
If turnout is the crucial aspect then he could call if for Saturday Nov 3rd.
We just have to wait for opinion polls. Simple as that.
4. I believe someone posted in the last couple of days that the 1986 RPA means that elections cannot be on weekends, bank holidays or days of mourning. I’ll probably be corrected if that’s wrong but I don’t think it is.
4 - Well currently he would be breaking the law calling an election on 3rd Novemeber.
5 - yep.
“Saturday, Sunday, Christmas Eve, Christmas Day, Maundy Thursday, Good Friday, a bank holiday or a day appointed for public thanksgiving or mourning.”
Ipsos Mori bloke on BBC R5, 7.10 said rumours of private labour polling of marginals not “rosey”. Also political work = 0.1% of ipsos work: they would make more money if they did not do it.
ps. rather shocked at how little coverage the 3,200 trapped miners in SA got last night.
7 Surprised Gordon didn’t declare a Day of Thanksgiving when he became PM
When did we have our last D o T?
9 - I think it was back in 2002 for Her Majesty.
In the 19th century we had Days of National Humiliation ! Wouldn’t that be wonderful ?
11 - We still have those. They usually coincide with an England one day cricket match.
1. The motivation to vote because it will be close should have no net benefit to Labour (or at best - for them - only a very marginal one). Countering those who fear Labour losing power will be those who desire such an outcome and would be able to see the genuine likelihood of it.
Labour ‘returner’s due to Iraq could be a factor, and I’m surprised at the Lib Dem to Labour figures there - I’d have expected a much higher net movement. Presumably the low Lib Dem rating is not because of switchers but because their own voters from 2005 are now less likely to turn out.
Against these possible boosts are the points Jon makes, and possibly one other - postal strikes, which could play havoc with absent votes. The old registers will be at their most out of date around this time of year. I’ve not seen any analysis of whether that favours any particular party and can’t think of any good reason why it should do so, off hand.
The dark nights by contrast should favour the Conservatives. The days of ‘poor weather helps the Tories’ is long gone, if indeed it was ever the case. But there is a significant difference in the way the two main parties’ vote turns out and anyone who has worked in a committee room on polling day knows it: the Tory vote turns out more in the daytime, the Labour one more in the evening. That’s largely down to the demographic make-up of each parties’ vote. As the retired are disproportionately Tory and people with growing children disproportionately Labour, then the Labour voters turn out after work. If it is dark by the time they get back (and in early November, it will be dark by about half past four), there is a psychological shutting out of the world when curtains are drawn or blinds turned. I would expect a small but possibly significant swing to the Conservatives on account of that. This is admittedly a personal hypothesis - I would love to see some analysis of local byelections for example, to see if there’s any merit in it.
Overall, I still believe Gordon would be taking a gigantic risk calling an election with not that much to gain and a vast amount to lose. He has to be certain he will not just win, but win comfortably. He undoubtedly has the option to go should he want it. Indeed, leaving that option open has meant momentum has built up to such an extent that many people now expect it. I’ve always thought the odds on a 2007 election were at any given time too short (but at each stage they’ve moved in, so I’ve not managed my bets terribly well); I still do. I’d probably have it just odds on at the moment, rather than the 1/2 currently trading on Betfair.
Having picked Vickery and Regan, looks as if we may only have to wait until Saturday for the next one!
13 - I’ve seen more than enough markets affected by “insider trading” to suggest that the decision to have a General Election has been taken in principle and has probably gone beyond that. There are probably a fair few people high up in Govt who are coming perilously close to breaking their own law (the Gambling Act).
That is not to say that the final decision has been taken, but if Gordon draws back then we will see a massive drift in the market before it happens.
Brown can’t back down now. He’s push this thing to far down the path to puss out at the end.
I’ve already begun looking forward to an election, so we must have one.
15. Yes it would be interesting to explore the tentacles of bets placed on the Election date. One would hope that those close to those close to the PM’s inner circle refrained from this sort of thing, but …
Matt in the Telegraph:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/graphics/2007/10/04/matt.gif
Well done Mike with the record yesterday. “Things are only going to get better.” And I’m getting goggle eyed trying to scan all the posts!
Alex [15] The Spreadfair market highlighted by Mike on the last thread says not. You can now sell £20 at 40 weeks when if an election happens on Nov 1st will come in at 18 weeks a profit of £440.
Must admit after yesterday I was pretty keen on a November election as I thought Brown would come out of it damaged, but he would be a fool to go to the country, unnecessarily, putting at risk a good working majority. Better to take the hit with the media.
If it is off then hopefully we’ve seen the last of the political game playing and Brown will finally do what he’s been falsely claiming to do and get on with running the country. We’ve had three months of stunts all aimed at destabilising the Tories and making opportunity for an Autumn election. If its off then he can’t run on need for a mandate, must accept its now about running on his record and it’ll be 2009 or more likely 2010.
13- Agree with your points on turnout particularly in relation to the adverse effect on Labour in aprticular of adverse nights.Sense growing public opposition to what Jeremy Paxman on newsnight called “this unneccesary election”.Inn a campauign any labour lead is likley to narrow and the media want thsi clos erace “story”.Also in marginals a huge anmount of money and effort already gonein from Ashcroft.This makes a total mockery of election expense limits and Electoral law on expenses needs to change.
However if the polls show Labour stil with 40% or above Gordon might be temted to go.He might lik eto pocder the polloing evidebc efrom the last 3 elections where the average ICM Guardian rating across the 12 months between 16 and 4 months pre election was an accurate forecast of the final result;
1996/7 Polls C31,Lab 47,Lib 18,Actual C31,Lab 44,Lib 17
2000/1 Polls C33,Lab 42,Lib 18 Actual C33,Lab 42,Lib 19
2004/5 Polls C32,lab 37,Lib 22 Actual C33,Lab 36,Lib 23.
This seems to suggest that people make their mind up broadly in the3/4thyear of a parliament and that the 4 month period before an election makes little difference.
The question is would a similar model work when we are only just over 2years into a parliament,when all 3 leaders have changed,one recently and when there is an autumn not spring election?Probably not.
But here are the figures from the 12 months from July 2006 to June 2007 ….Con 38,Lab 32,Lib 21.Is this the real voter feelin once the froth of the Brown Bounce has blowmn off during a serious election campaign?
Rogerh
Rogerh
Regarding the comparisons with 2005, a big thank you to Mark Senior for pointing this out and to Mike for the whole article.
That said there is also the problem of people saying they voted Labour (because they won) whereas they actually voted for others.
The situation in the marginals is key to this. Why are Labour so unsure? They had extensive data from the locals and should have been doing their own polling. Is the problem that a combination of no cash at the end of Blair’s time and Brown wanting his own people created a gap in Labour’s analysis?
Also Hazel Blears seems to have done a poor job in getting her party ready for an early election, their candidate selections are well behind the other main two in the key English and Wales marginals. Was she too distracted running for the Deputy job?
Add in hopeless Harriet and their selection malaise continues.
alex @ 15 re insider trading — conversely, I have seen more than enough budget leaks that turned out to be false that I now routinely discount any so-called leaks of Brown’s intentions as mere gossip or wishful thinking.
The man from the Returning Officers Association has been on the media quite a lot in the past day or two. I did wonder if he was doing himself and his group any favours - there was an element of “the job we’re paid for is a bit too difficult and we’d rather not do it”.
We don’t have long to wait for the first reaction polls. I predict Labour still in front by 4%.
Anybody read the dead tree press today? Sun raves, Guardian “virtuoso”, Indie raves…
Oh what a beautiful morning,
Oh what a beautiful day,
I’ve got a beautiful feeeeeeeling,
Everything’s going our way!
To great applause at the Tory Conference, Nick Herbert, the Shadow Secretary of State for Justice, announced:
… we will re-balance our constitution to strengthen the Union… by ensuring that English Members of Parliament have the decisive say over English laws.
Indeed? Is he really, really, really sure that such legislation would “strengthen the Union”? He’d better be! Because, let us not forget, Labour always claimed that the purpose of its various devolution Acts was to “strengthen the Union” too. But have they actually achieved that aim? There is only so much “strengthening” that this Union can take before it finally collapses.
I await the Tory manifesto with baited breath.
http://thecep.org.uk/news/?p=190
24 sbjme19 “the job we’re paid for is a bit too difficult and we’d rather not do it”.
Welcome to the mad bad world of nuLabour. Maybe Mr “Northern Rock” Wanless needs to be paid to head a up a Commission into this and the GE can then be delayed?
You just keep stuffing Labour Stuart! Any truth about Salmond standing in Cowdenbeath?
Interesting findings by Mark Senior. As Anatole has mentioned this morning I believe that this last week will have improved the Conservatives chances because of Osbornes tax promises not Cameron’s speech.
Specifically the IHT promise. The stamp duty pledge is neither here nor there. Someone spending £250,000 isn’t over impressed by a £1500 discount particularly when the offer itself is likely to have a marginally inflationary effect on house prices.
There fore I expect Brown in his next weeks spending review to increase IHT to £500,000 which reinforces the Tories helping millionaires and at the same time gives people with more limited savings a better feeling. Brown wont care about charges of plagiarism. Brown’s a serious strategist. I don’t love his politics but as a politician I’m warming to him.
I cannot believe how important the next couple of polls will be. They could literally decide on the next government of this country.
http://lettersfromatory.wordpress.com
Rogerh, the difficulty with your figures from the past is that this time we had a change in the Prime Minister 101 days ago so we are not comparing like with like. Of course I hope you are right.
30 Roger “I don’t love his politics but as a politician I’m warming to him.”
Sorry Roger, but you have me a bit baffled. I though that you were a Labour supporter. Brown is Labour, isn’t he? And fairly typical of his party - not some renegade.
Presumably this ‘internal polling’ was the same one that forecast a Labour majority of 50 in 1997. I still believe there will be an election and believe Labour will get a 60-65 seat majority.
31 - Brown will take much more note of labour’s private polling, they are likely to be asking more pertinent questions about marginals and such. To trust the general polls, when they may be hiding patterns, would be foolish.
In fact, if he refused an election when some polls had them clearly ahead, he may even look magnaminous.
‘Letters from a Tory’. Even the self publicist Benedict White treats us to a few words of wisdom before shamelessly advertising his blog on Mikes site!
4 day Postal Strike now - that has a disproportionate effect on election-related activities, and no doubt will totally c.ck up the RM’s preparation for Freepost delivery of election addresses. Let’s all face it - this election was off before it was on.
Did Cameron really say:
“We will do away with Police Authorites and hand over control of local policing to elected Mayors or Police Commisioners”?
re 30, Roger if Brown does uplift the IHT from £300k to £500k he will actually remove the ability to claim that the Conservatives IHT proposal is not fully funded by non doms which has been his main (misguided) line of attack.
The bulk of the estates falling into IHT will be in that £300k to £500k range. Probably between 2/3 and 3/4.
News from the Swansea West frontline! Campaigning in earnest starts next Thursday! Leaflet drops, voter ID (both by phone and on the doorstep), a canvassing rota, envelope stuffing etc all planned. The CLP seems to think Nov 1st is certain.
HF - they already have the Nulab Electoral Commission before whose invention of course elections were run in complete chaos Florida style, thousands of lost votes etc etc. Er..no, actually.
29 - no
33. Disraeli. His rather authoritarian politics isn’t particularly my bag. I’m giving him the benefit of the doubt because I think he’s just following a populist line which all politicians have to do. I think he was a fine and reasonably redistributive chancellor so I still have hopes so I’m sure his heart’s in the right place
Praise from the Sun
“The Sun’s verdict? Mission Very Possible.”
http://www.thesun.co.uk/article/0,,2007460163,00.html
Even Gordon Pascoe Brown puts in a good word for the Conservatives. (Shock).
http://www.thesun.co.uk/article/0,,2007460172,00.html
“GUTSY David Cameron set the Tories alight yesterday as he turned Mission Impossible into Mission POSSIBLE.”
O/T Did anyone see Michael Cricks newsnight article last night on the marginal seat of Chester?
Honestly, I’ve never seen such a pathetic bunch of candidates in my life. That goes for ALL parties.
The Labour MP looked like my next door neighbour, and sounded about as clueless about politics as my great-aunt, totally inept and totally out-of-her depth. She sounded rather sweet, in a way, but I can’t believe somebody that ignorant is an MP. She has done NOTHING in the way of campaigning whatsoever. Stupid, stupid woman.
The Conservative candidate had the unfortunate surname of “Mosley”, but that aside, both sounded and looked like a wet rag/computer geek. He looked like an immature CCHQ staffer, not a serious candidate for parliament. He conveyed no confidence or gravitas whatsoever I have no idea *how* he got selected, but I’d be more impressed with a wet towel. On the plus side, at least he was well organised and campaigning hard.
The Liberal Democrat candidate didn’t even seem to exist to start with, eventually Michael Crick tracked her down, she had also done f*ck all and looked like she’d just been pulled in off the street.
Distinctly unimpressive. All of them. Naturally, I want one more Conservative MP in the commons if possible, but I feel very sorry for all the people of Chester.
Very poor show.
HF. No one really cares less about the Non Doms or where the money comes from. For some reason people see an unfairness in IHT at it’s present level and that’s important. I think this would disappear at half a million and if Brown announced it people would know that it could be safely funded.
29. Test - “Any truth about Salmond standing in Cowdenbeath?”
Ho, ho!!
I hadn’t heard that one yet! That would be hilarious: incumbent British Prime Minister versus incumbent Scottish First Minister. Wow, the very concept almost brings tears to the eyes. What a delicious contest that would be.
Result: Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath UK GE 2005
1. Lab (Gordon Brown) 58%
2. SNP 15%
3. LD 13%
4. Con 10%
5. SSP 2%
6. UKIP 1%
7. SSCUP 1%
SNP would need a 21.8% swing. It has been done before, eg. Govan twice, but those were by-elections.
At the 2007 Scottish GE the SNP were only 10% behind Labour in Kirkcaldy; and 16% behind in Dunfermline East (where, funnily enough, Cowdenbeath is actually the largest town).
November cold and dark, dark yes cold no, there is cold weather in November, but it is quite rare, and usually of short duration. Most November days are damp, grey but usually mild, statistically Feb. is the coldest month.
The weather is not the factor in elections it once was, as for dark, I’ve noticed that most places seem to be quite well endowed with street lighting. The only place I could see the weather or light being a problem is the rural areas (were I live, there are no street lights) hardly Labour strongholds.
Once the voters accept, there is a gneneral election, they’ll start to concentrate their minds on the result. Despite the Tories, ‘bounce’ the runes still favour Labour.
Am I missing something? One the one hand we are being told by the Tories to ‘bring it on’, that the ‘private polls’ are not good for Labour (is this Tory spin?), but the whole thrust of (Dave c’mon Yeh!) Cameron speech was to stave off an early election, presumably because they know they will lose badly.
“But here are the figures from the 12 months from July 2006 to June 2007 ….Con 38,Lab 32,Lib 21.Is this the real voter feelin once the froth of the Brown Bounce has blowmn off during a serious election campaign?”
Add to that the month after month of polls showing that when head to head, Cameron had a massive lead over Gordon “Michael Foot” Brown. I can still find no rational explanation as to why that suddenly changed so dramatically on 1 July.
Which is the better indication - a settled 18 months lead for Cameron or the past 3 months post-succession bounce for Brown?
Interesting that the Indy seems confident the election is off. Scoop of the year, or are they just going to look a bit silly? Everyone else seems to think it’s still on, don’t they?
47 (cont)
Alex Salmond achieved a 10.5% swing from Lib Dems to SNP in the Gordon gain in May 2007. But, let’s face it, Nora Radcliffe was a political midget compared to Gordon Brown and the combined might of the British establishment and media.
Still… there would just be that wee element of doubt. God, I am starting to like that idea!
30. “There fore I expect Brown in his next weeks spending review to increase IHT to £500,000 ”
What did I tell you!!!!!
I even predicted that exact threshold amount! But how much longer will Labour get away with stealing Conservative policies and blatantly having none of their own?
What a slimy, scheming, conniving little sh*t Brown is.
45 - yes, good piece re Chester and I agree re the candidates and their parties. The Tory was just wet and very ‘green’ - surely they could have found someone older with more gravitas? The Lab MP at least looked warm and honest. I expect a Lab hold - they should have asked Gyles to come back.
Have you seen the latest rubbish in the Mail, ” What did Dianas last smile in the lift signify?” FFS, perhaps Dodi had farted in the lift!
Peter Ridell, gets it right, he normally does. Note to Bruce Anderson and Mogg, this is how you do it.
http://tinyurl.com/3ba2zl
51 The danger to Brown isn’t Salmond winning but possibility of Salmond winning so he has to spend time in his constituency and deal with matters he doesn’t want headlined. Salmond has nothing to lose as he said he’d drop out of Westminster so losing well could be a triumph.
47, 51: it may be a delicious prospect if all the other parties stood down - straight fight Salmond vs Brown.
Would it distract GB’s attention from the bigger prize?
I could find myself liking Alex Salmond for once if that came to pass!
I’m praying its not 2007 but only from a betting point of view. If its a common consensus that the Cons cant get a majority in one bite then its in their intrest to reduce the majority.
Best price for laying election on betfair is now 1.6 - the money is not certain now for sure.
Roger, yes that is what Brown should have decided to do when Osborne made the announcement. Instead he has used up media goodwill by pushing the line “its unfunded” to them in a massive pr offensive.
If he changes now he will do further damage to that delicate relationship which is already bruised by being excluded from Iraq and misled over the troop numbers etc.
The Sun and Mail are already tottering in their support for Brown because of Europe.
“Peter Ridell gets it right, he normally does.”
Funniest post of the day so far. Keep ‘em coming…
Burbachchris @ 49 — what you are missing is that a November election may well be a lose-lose-lose situation.
Labour will win but Brown needs an increased majority to keep the Blairite ultras in their boxes, and this at a time when boundary changes will take around 15 seats.
Conservatives will lose and unless there is a hung parliament, Cameron will be looking at his P45.
And Ming hasn’t got a snowball’s of matching Charlie’s seat count.
“The Sun and Mail are already tottering in their support for Brown because of Europe.”
The fact that the Conservatives still can’t be sure of the support of the Daily Mail, which hates just about everything Labour stands for, says a lot I think.
50. Bob Sykes. You say that the Indy seems confident the election is off. The Guardian announced an election date of November 1st only the other day. I can only conclude nobody knows for sure because Brown has yet to make his mind up.
63. The Express has an exclusive today that its November the 8th !
62- The fact that one of Brown’s clear objectives is to please Daily mail voters also says a lot about the state of Labour…
Food for thought for GB when he reads today’s Sun - it’s better than I imagined. Surely they are now manoeuvering in the Tories’ direction? Coupled with the EU position, how on earth can The Sun now endorse Brown?
If he backs off, will he be forever saddled with the epithet “Bottler Brown”?
56: we’ve been here before - Reg Keays was going to amass all the people annoyed with Tony Blair and sweep him out of Sedgfield, remember? That sort of thing doesn’t work. It’s essentially a gimmick and people don’t want the PM - especially a local man who they’ve known for a generation - swept out by a gimmick.
The Tories are in triumphalist mode today, but IMO they still don’t genuinely want an election. We should call their bluff unless they’re actually ahead in the polls.
60
If you can’t recognise really, really, good political commentary, then your an idiot. Ridell is superb, easily the best political writer, in any newspaper, in this country.
Just seen Ben Brogan’s latest posting ( apologies if this has been pointed out previously ) as usual he seems to be pretty much on the money, in this case no election this November
http://broganblog.dailymail.co.uk/2007/10/there-wont-be-a.html
Thanks for the article Mike. As ever great insight. Mind you so was Mark Senior’s. I can’t see serial non voters getting out on a cold and foggy night.
So the elction is off then?
I never thought it was on, until the last few days when it seemed all but inevitable. Brown is going to look weak in the lobby. It won’t directly affect much but may become an underlying theme as time goes on.
62: If you are willing to ditch decades of party tradition to sprout populist slogans which come from US speeches and BNP leaflets just to get their approval then you might get their support short term but you’ll look bad in the long run.
I agree re Crick’s Chester piece which was hilarious. I could almost vote for the Labour MP - her complete innocence and unawareness was quite refreshing in a politician - unless it was all contrived, but I doubt it. As for the Tory, other sites show that there have been quite a few problems and soul-searching locally with good candidates not making it to the final selection. Just hope it was all worth it…
Re 69, JGC, Exect this Benedict has been predicting no election on his blog for ages
61. “Conservatives will lose and unless there is a hung parliament, Cameron will be looking at his P45.”
Rubbish. Cameron is only at risk if Brown increases his majority.
Very interesting article. I’ve always suspected that the “Brown Bounce” isn’t anywhere near as strong in the southern marginals, as the polls have us believe. And then theres the great uncertainty over what happens to the Liberals vote.
I’m amazed theres not been any major, publiched polling of the marginals. Could it be because the media want an election and they know that if the poll the marginals the election will likely be off?
70
I don’t know how many times I have to keep telling you ‘blue harpies’ November is not cold!!!! and foggy and cold don’t go together.
this was last year……
http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/ukweather/year_review/reviews/november2006_review_england.shtml
Re 67, Nick Palmer, “The Tories are in triumphalist mode today, but IMO they still don’t genuinely want an election. We should call their bluff unless they’re actually ahead in the polls.”
Brave talk, Nick, go on! Do it!!!!!!!!
67 Nick Palmer MP
The thing is Nick, Gordon Brown would probably not be “swept out” of Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath by an Alex Salmond challenge; but, my goodness, would it focus attention on the Scottish Question (and thus by default the English Question), especially for the international media, who would be bound to pick up the story as a key point of interest in an otherwise dull election.
Even with only a modest swing from Brown, such a bold challenge could potentially create a big dividend for the SNP.
And Reg Keays is a political midget compared to the threat posed by Alex Salmond.
Have to admit I’m going by reports of the week - thanks to all here for their wide-ranging responses - rather than seeing or hearing any of it myself (rather a busy few days taking in Moscow - and meeting the scariest man in the world - and Valencia).
But clear that Cameron did the minimum he needed to, and a bit more. It puts pressure on GB to be decisive, one way or the other.
Still think that he is minded to go for it, and would feel confident of winning a majority.
But as I said last week, he will be wanting a maj of 100-plus, which would effectively guarantee eight more years of NuLab. That has to be the evidence of the polls before he can sensibly make the call.
67. Nick, what’s the problem?
I thought you said we were looking at a repeat of 1997?
Call it.
48.”The weather is not the factor in elections it once was” GOM, I think you are wrong there, we have seen a developing pattern of colder wetter wilder weather in my area over the last couple of years. Two years ago the local schools were shut for 2 days because of snow!
Don’t just look at the overall picture because there can be stark regional variations, a bit like the polls.
78 Surely it would only be a dull election if the outcome was a foregone conclusion. And if it was, then GB wouldn’t be worried about that level of interest…..?
68 - I don’t dislike Riddell, I find his pieces well-written, punchy and fairly incisive. But he’s so pro-Labour it hurts. Which is why you like what you read from him, and why your “he usually gets it right” comment so raised a smile on my face when I saw it.
I find Rees-Mogg gets it right more often than Riddell.
But both Riddell and Rees-Mogg are in a league above the Times’ joker in the pack, Tim Hames. Who I think could actually be Roger.
64 Harry, was the Express Nov 8 date something from the Diana inquest?
13 There is a significant movement from LibDems to Labour presumably the returning Iraq factor but perhaps surprisingly there is despite the change from Blair to Brown an almost as large movement in the other direction and this is picked up not just in this poll but previous ICM and Populus Polls . Apart from likelihood to vote , the Populus weightings for past recall are not as kind/generous to LibDems as ICM . This Populus poll actually found more LibDems than the previous ICM poll and yet the published figure was 17% v ICM’s 19% .
70 They are not all serial non voters Benedict , a proportion of them will be first time 18-21 year olds who are of course predominately Labour but do not turn out in as high %’s as the older voter .
re Cowdenbeath - I’m not sure the Con candidate pulling out would change the election much
83 - Oh my god you must be joking! Rees-Mogg is an old boob and a joke!
67. Maybe it’s the Conservatives who’ve called Browns bluff?
84. Yes as there would be an election that day they would be free to extend the Peoples Princess coverage from 12 to 26 pages.
Crick on Chester might be explained by saying that one of New Labour’s triumphs is the election of a lot of MPs who have no great ideological commitment (so are unlikely to make trouble for the dear leader) but who see it as a job. What have been the great achievements of this new intake? Better hours, better wages, better pensions. But only for MPs, naturally.
Or perhaps there have always been a lot of poor MPs.
The biggest backlash for Brown in ‘calling off’ an election that I have never imagined he wanted anyway will come from his own side, frustrated and angry that he has prevaricated and then balked at the best opportunity they will have.
But I think there will be more damage and disillusionment from members. One of my Blackpool taxi drivers was incandescent with Brown for in his words ’sucking up’ to Mrs Thatcher - ‘I’m an old Labour man and I thought Brown was going to be different to Blair - but I am beginning to realise he is the same, but without the charm’.
62 Dave H “The fact that the Conservatives still can’t be sure of the support of the Daily Mail, ……….says a lot I think.”
1. Brown wraps himself in the flag uses BNP quotes and dates Thatcher. Things that Labour party members seem ok with!
2. Dacre wants a knighthood?
82 laptop - “Surely it would only be a dull election if the outcome was a foregone conclusion”
But the result is a foregone conclusion!!
Just what exactly is the supposèd difference between Brown vs Cameron or Labour vs Tory? They are just different faces of the same tedious old dull coin.
Brown or Cameron? Who cares? It’ll make bugger all difference.
People seem to agree that Brown calling an election sets a new precedent against the previous constitutional convention that the PM only uses his perogative near the end of a term or after a crisis.
Does this now mean that a PM is free to call an opportunistic General Election the day after the leader of the opposition resigns?
I think it probably does…
91, Marcus your point illustrates the fact that Brown has not accounted for the effect of his actions on his base of activists.
90. “Or perhaps there have always been a lot of poor MPs. ”
Even Blair admitted (off-hand) that he wasn’t impressed with the quality of the vast majority of his MP’s.
If you look at parliament up until the 1980s, it was staffed by men/women of experience and professional expertise. Intelligent, articulate, successful and serious people.
Nowadays, politics has many, many more serial lightweights for whom politics IS their career and have never had a proper job.
Works on occassion but, in general, I prefer a politician who has experience of the real world.
93 - Were you actually paying attention?
91 Well here’s one Labour member who would be delighted if there wasn’t an Autumn election. With a newish born boy, I personally could do with an easy time at the moment. That said still more optimistic about Labour’s prospects than at any time since 2003.
85 Mark Senior, these young voters are also likely to be the most disenfranchised because of the electoral shambles.
72 oops - *were* quite refeshing!
jgc Does Brogan gives us the ’stand down’ spin from Labour:
“Brown Central is convinced that George Osborne has given them all the ammunition they need for a protracted demolition campaign centred on the “fantasy” costings behind his tax cut proposals. Some are even seeing it as a Black Wednesday moment that will prove to be as disastrous for the credibility of the Cameron/Osborne generation as 1992 was for John Major and his lot.”
If so it suggest that the Tories have taken control of the political agenda.
96 - it probably doesn’t help that (certainly in Labours case) the principal speakers are restricted to the time it takes to say I’m X shadow/secretary of state for happiness and warm rosy feelings. We will stuff the other lot. We are great. Cue huge ovetion.
Given that Labour hasnt had time to rebuild its local party machine post-Blair in many marginals that it needs to gain (and hold), the postal strikes will surely be hugely problematic because Labour will be relying on the freepost and national paid delivery for almost all their literature?
The member for Broxtowe has it about right, but he misses a point.
The Tories basically don’t want the election now, whatever the say. Because they think they will lose. Lsbour basically do want it, because they think they will win. Simple as that. C’est vrai.
However the two positions have blurred in the last two weeks. Because the subtler underlying position is that Labour now has more to lose than the Tories.
The Tories are already in opposition for three more years. Another election defeat means they will be in opposition for five more years, max. So what. Same old same old. Time to finish their reforms.
Unless there is a total meltdown at the polls (unlikely after yesterday, and their core vote is solid) the Tories will probably emerge with a similar number of seats, at worse. Cammo is safe.
By contrast, Labour have it ALL to lose. They could just possibly be defeated, they could certainly lose their overall majority; even a win of less than solid proportions would weaken a leader with a tenuous grip on his self-esteem.
That’s Labour dilemma. They look like they would win, but it could all go so easily and horribly wrong.
Tricky.
93 James Burdett - “Were you actually paying attention?”
Errr…. no, not really. And here’s some news for you: neither were the electorate at large.
Politicians (and pb’ers) may spend 24 hours a day up their own electioneering ar*es, but, back in the real world, nobody gives a fig for all the grunting and posturing.
Normal people only pay attention to politics when there are genuine substantive differences between political parties. Currently, in England, insufficient substantive differences exist to spark the electorate’s (or the international media’s) attention. In Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland however…..
Re 85, Mark Senior, point noted, but they are still less likely to actually vote are they not.
I meant post 97 James Burdett (not 93)
102 James, is it not a fact that most of Brown’s cabinet were restricted to 7 min speeches? An amazing demonstration of the fact that he wants to keep his colleagues to a back office role.
As I have said previously, most of the Lib Dem shadow cab are more impressive than their Labour counterparts.
I remain very confident that there will be a November election, based on Brown needing only a 4% lead in the polls (i.e. roughly half the levels recently recorded)to score a resounding victory. Cameron did well yesterday, very well, but it remains Labour’s for the taking.
Reading the posts here, one could be forgiven for thinking that the prospects of a November poll had all but vanished - not so, GE 2007 remains the strong odds-on favourite and since pb.com is a serious betting site it’s important that this point is made.
Anyone remember that bit in Monty Python & the Holy Grail where the minstrels berate Sir Robin for his cowardice?
I’ve adapted it in time for next week’s PMQs:
Cameron: [singing] Brave Sir Gordon ran away…
Sir Gordon: *No!*
DC: [singing] bravely ran away away…
Sir Gordon: *I didn’t!*
DC: [singing] When danger reared its ugly head, he bravely turned his tail and fled.
Sir Gordon: *I never did!*
DC: [singing] Yes, brave Sir Gordon turned about, and valiantly, he chickened out.
Sir Gordon: *Oh, you liars!*
DC: [singing] Bravely taking to his feet, he beat a very brave retreat. A brave retreat by brave Sir Gordon.
83
Rees Mogg is a joke, during the last election he wrote, ‘Due to flaws in the polls the Tories are at least 5% ahead of Labour’
I’m not interested in Riddell’s political persuasion, whatever it is, he doesn’t allow it to flavour his commentary.
Unlike failed Conservative Candidate Rees (wrong again) Mogg.
83. Bob. Are you being ironic? Or did you find it useful when Rees Mogg uniquely predicted a Tory win in 2001 and a Tory lanslide in 2005?
108 - Most empty spaces are more imressive than the Labour Cabinet.
104 It’s like putting the life savings on a 2/5 bet. Not much to gain, plenty to lose. Not sure I’d do it.
101 If the Tories couldn’t gain control of the agenda after a week of blanket coverage it would be a pretty poor result. Let’s see how long it lasts. Even the Lib Dems managed it for a bit.
BTW Regarding the Lib Dems, where are they? Who is leading their fightback? I know the press are not interested at the moment. But who is leading them in the media right now? The most visible Lib Dem is Vincent cable, good bloke - but never going to set the world alight. Nick Clegg should be on the Telly 24/7 right now if you ask me. Where is he?
Another interesting straw in the wind. The laughably chippy Kevin Maguire has a hysterectomy about Cameron in the Mirror this morning - and buried at the bottom of his bileduct of a column is the news
‘I understand Brown is cooling on a November election’
http://tinyurl.com/ynta2w
These journos can’t all be getting their gossip from each other, can they? Maguire, Richards, Brogan? Don’t buy it. I think someone at Labour HQ is sending out signals about a climbdown.
They are paving the road to Smolensk, ready for a retreat from Moscow. Just in case it is needed.
re: November weather, Labour MPs in Scotland are horrified at the idea of a November election. This is primarily because Alex Salmond is still enjoying his bounce up there, while Labour are in a recently defeated “trough”. But also weather in November in Scotland is very different to England. It is cold, windy, wet and VERY dark. Sunset in the central belt is considerably earlier in November.
Add to that the SNP will run heavy on the line of “This election is unecceassary and is purely driven by Brown’s obsession by English marginals - this shows the contempt with which Gordon Brown treats Scotland, rural Scotland in particular…”
104. SeanT’s analysis is very cogent- probably the closest I’ve seen to a clear explanation of Ball’s “where does the gamble lie” remarks.
Cameron doesn’t want an election, so he’s done all he can this week to shore up the Tory base,- tax cuts, a return to tred meat on Europe and immigration, while combining it with policies on Health and education that try to appeal both to the tory right and to the middle ground.
That isn’t an election winning strategy. No chance. But it could, under the right circumstances be a non-losing strategy in the short term.
However, the corollory to that is that by trading in his long term policy agenda 9such as it was) for a short term boost in the polls, Cameron leaves himself exposed to a sustained policy debate- something he’s been desperate to avoid for the last two years.
That changes the dynamics for a longer term battle- Labour strategists could argue that their current stregh has forced Caneron to show his hand to stop an early election, and that this can now be picked off over a longer period- - and this is what people appear to be telling Brogan.
Personally, I’m sceptical baout how much has really changed. I think the fundamentals are lab c 39 Tories c34. If the polls are about there I’d be going for it.
110 With Cameron cast in the role of the Black Knight.
DAVE: Come Here.
GORDON: What are you going to do … bleed on me?
DAVE: I’m invincible!
GORDON: You’re a loony.
DAVE: The DAVE always triumphs. Have at you!
GORDON takes his last leg off. The DAVE’s body lands upright.
DAVE: All right, we’ll call it a draw.
GORDON: Come, Ming.
GORDON start to cross the bridge.
DAVE: Running away eh? You yellow bastard, Come back here and take what’s coming to you. I’ll bite your legs off!
Someone wanting to punt £4433 on 2007 at 1.57 on Betfair.
118 King Arthur surveys the House of Commons.
“On second thoughts, let’s not go there. It is a silly place…”
116. MBoy
Indeed!
A November 2007 GE could be a perfect storm for the Scottish independence movement. Are Labour willing to risk that? And for what?
And yet if he dithers, Brown will have to face the electorate in a recession.
Tricky one that
:D 
115: There are going to be a lot of Labour shills who are going to look really very foolish if the Clunking One doesn’t call an election. Some like Kevin Maguire will find some reason to claim it’s the Tories fault but many will feel used.
stjohn - I saw this on one of your posts last night:
what a lot of fun we look likely to have at Chez Michael.
Is this something to do with pb.com’s next party venue, which I’ve obviously missed, or are you just being your usual cryptic self?
122. Actually, I think the most likely explanation for all this conflicting evidence is the most obvious one: Gordo simply hasn’t decided yet, and is as confused as the rest of us.
So Labour are trying to keep all options open - by signalling to journos that there may be a climbdown, while moving the constitutional furniture so they ready to lay the electoral carpet, if necessary.
Brown is waiting on the polls. Like all of us. Exciting!
117
I’m with you, but I’d be surprised if Labour got 39%, more like 37 with 38 tops, Tories will get 34%/35% tops. Still think Libdems, will surprise us ,see them 18% with 19% tops.
118: “GORDON: Come, Ming.”
So you concede that a hung parliament’s likely if Brave Sir Gordon goes to the polls next month then?
126 No just predict that Ming will follow Brown where ever he goes banging his nuts together.
What do people think is the going to be the lead that the YouGov survey from Channel Four tonight will mean Brown hits the GO button? It was 44/33/13 last week and I’d expect to see the Conservatives go up by three or four and the maybe Lib Dems to nick a point or two from Labour. That would be, roughly 39/36/15 which, with worse case scenario margins of error, could be a -3 lead for Labour which would return them 14 short in a HP. On the other hand if the other polls at the weekend averaged out a 3-4% lead you’d have to think he’d go for it. I think that the last week has seen the Conservatives do enough to stop the election but not enough to win it. Conservatives under 36% and a lead of three points would be the bare minimum I think.
125 - i reckon:
Lab 39-40
Con 35-36
LD 18
Anything less than 35 for the Cons over the next few days and I reckon it’s on. Above that it’s too tight for comfort.
121 Recession ? What recession Stuart ? It does make a change for a doom and gloomster on here to be other than a Conservative poster .
129 If it is Yougov , LibDems will not be on 18 .
Brit spin Are you assuming that he Tory policies announced at the conference are the totality of an election manifesto?
They almost certainly are not, and one or two from the Front Bench more or less said there was stuff kept in the locker for an election.
Neither should you assume that the announcements were aimed at shoring up the base alone. Stamp duty for first time buyers, zero tolerance policing, removing the excessive bureaucracy, better treatment of the armed forces and so on resonate with the electorate as a whole.
The problem for Labour as time progresses is that Tory policies used to be popular as long as the Tory tag was not attached. It now seems that is changing and the Tory tag is no longer an automatic negative.
Certainly two more years would make it possible to make that change completely, and that is why this, and the economic risks, is the best time for Brown to go for it.
But even with this change only partly made the dynamics are changing. Labour can no longer say ’same old Tories’ and get everyone on side. At one time their hubris in announcing melt down at the Tory conference might have moved the media. This time it didn’t and the ‘predictions’ have proved so far from the mark they have further weakened the media trust.
The word ’stunts’ appears more and more frequently in the press and on phone-ins. Labour are trying to operate as if it is 1997, and it is not washing.
That is not to say the Tories will win an election this year, very unlikely I would say, but it does suggest the Labour machine needs to do a ‘reset’ and think again, because it could well mean that the government’s majority is lost if they carry on this way.
110,116,118: So many things one can do with Monty Python…
DAVE: “Answer me, these questions three? - What is your name”
GORDON: “Gordon Broon”
DAVE: “What is your favourite colour?”
GORDON: “Labour Red of course”
DAVE: “When are you calling the election?”
GORDON: “Is that a European, General or African Election?”
DAVE: “Ooh, I don’t know” - Screams as is thrown into an abyss…
123. Peter. This is Chez Michael. Here. The virtual home of The Mighty Smithson and his increasingly extending PB family.
Chris D from last thread.
That is the problem. I’m guessing the leaking through of the credit issues, price inflation and so on is really only go to hit in 2008 thus if there is no 2007 election Brown might be able to pull an early 2008 job before thing become noticebale in Joe Voter’s pocket.
If not, it has to be long which has aleays been my original feeling but given the possibility of 2007 being very live has completly messed up my book which reads as:
2007: Modest Loss
2008: Stake Saver, tiny profit
2009: Decent priofit
2010: Decent Profit
I always felt 2007 was a possible given issues coming down the line (as posted as nauseum by myself) but the head of steam that it built up has caught myself, and by the looks of it many others, a bit short.
In assessing the eagerly awaited poll figures, Brown will also need to consider the impact of any increased Lib Dem vote when the real vote takes place. Nobody really thinks they will do as badly as 13%-16%, do they? More likely to be 17%-20%.
134 Thanks, just me being a bit dim then - well it was late!
It wasn’t supposed to be like this. Collecting an army after its glorious decade of victories in battle, Goliath Gordon would run a miltary campaign based on his experience gained at the General’s side. After all, he had gravitas - and a gargantuan intellect. And what did he face in his first battle? The callow youth David.
Goliath’s army was kept in view for only seven minutes, whilst he strode the Bournemouth battle field like a collosus. Goliath felt no shame in picking up his opponents weapons and throwing them back at them. And why should he worry? What was he up against? A boy king, heading a broken, aged and demoralised army, running from defeat to defeat. Truly, Goliath would grind the bastards into the dust.
And what was that his opponent David wielded? A slingshot?
Mwaaaaahaaaahaaaaaahaaahhahhahh - ouch! That really hurt…..”
And so Goliath did slink away to fight another day. But even as he did so, his Army stared at a blackening sky. This was an ill omen….
Well, if no election is called, what are the likely odds on Ming lasting ’til Christmas?
About 5 minutes ago, suddenly, a rather big bet was placed on there being a 2007 election.
Re. big bet - it was on Betfair.
I think it was Kellner on Newsnight who said that Brown would ideally like to see the polls over the next two weeks in order to make a decision, as they will give him a better picture of the real position.
That seems sensible as instant polls,such a MORI, show steep increases followed by steep declines between the Brown speech and the next weekend. So instapolls are a bit of a lottery, and I shall be more impressed by evidence from polls in ten days time than from this weekend, as the later date will be the real end of the conference season.
But Brown, if he wants an election this year, needs to decide this weekend at the latest. A tough one.
I think any lead will do, 2/3% will certainly do. Labour will reckon, that after Dave’s speech etc. if they hold a lead, they’ll forge ahead during the campaign.
Labour will be particularly heartened by the way they bounced back after the Rhys Jones murder, and the other gun crime incidents. The Tories were able to attack hard on the law and order front, cutting Labour’s lead. Labour however survived that attack and regained the lead shortly afterwards. Proving to me, that Lab