Not sure- Couldn’t PM go to queen, then the CSR/PBR effectively becomes the starting issue of the election campaign? Opposition have to say what they’d do differently and bang, we’re off and into the race.
Also, is there any set time the PM has to see the queen by, i assume as long as it’s any time on the Tuesday, then 1st Nov still on- then the evening PM broadcast declares the electin.
Just to be clear- I’ve spoken to no-one about this and don’thave the faintest clue what’s going to happen!
It’s around about the 55th minute just after some inane remark from the audience about Burma. And what with Dave saying ‘p*ssed’ in his speech. The state of the nation…
6. I didn’t think elections were traditionally announced in parliament? has Brown said that he would? Happy to be corrected on both points, haven’t really followed it!
I think it has to be announced before an election, because, by convention, ministers do not announce great changes in policy on the part of HM government once an election has been declared. Brown could still go to the Queen on the same day.
10 - Not explicitly but he said ‘major announcements’ in Parliament not on the media. Given the stick he has got over Basra, he would want to avoid similar at the start of an election.
Continuing my discussion with Sean (reposted from previous thread)
Sean - your non EU settlement figure - I assume these are people who have been here for many years who,unlike Mr Al Fayed, have been granted citizenship.
If so the figures are 70% EU, 30% non EU. My 95% was an exaggeration!
PS. But so what. Without immigration the country would grind to a standstill. I thought Tories liked free markets?
Discussing the election at work and a friend who is a Labour party member and has done lots of canvassing in Sutton Coldfield of all places (which takes some dedication) opines that Brown has got to go now because the economy is going tits-up and he hasn’t a hope at any other time.
My understanding was that Brown would see the Queen Tuesday afternoon/tea time and the address the nation in the evening? I don’t think this would negate that scenario.
25. Interesting. That would make things tighter, but Brown could still get it all in within Tuesday evening, I’d have thought? Is Tuesday the final day on which he can call November 1st?
Surely he cant do the announcements and then go direct to the Queen. That would look so obviously like the most blatant piece of cynical opportunism since, well since last week’s Iraq visit. I think the hostile media would rip him to pieces for so obvious a manipulation of Whitehall for his own ends. What it surely means is that Nov 8th is still on but Nov 1st is off?
re several. I posted this yesterday, but the message still doesn’t seem to have got across. This explains all the timings
For the avoidance of any doubt here is Schedule 1 of the Representation of the People Act 1983, as amended
Part I
Provisions as to Time
Timetable
1. The proceedings at the election shall be conducted in accordance with the following Table.
Issue of Writ In the case of a general election, as soon as practicable after the issue of the proclamation summoning the new Parliament.
Publication of notice of election. In the case of a general election or by-election, not later than 4 in the afternoon on the second day after that on which the writ is received.
Delivery of nomination papers. In the case of a general election, between the hours of 10 in the morning and 4 in the afternoon on any day after the date of publication of the notice of election, but not later than the sixth day after the date of the proclamation summoning the new Parliament.
Delivery of notices of withdrawals of candidature. Within the time for the delivery of nomination papers at the election.
The making of objections to nomination papers. In the case of a general election or a by-election, during the hours allowed for delivery of nomination papers on the last day for their delivery and the hour following; but—
(a) no objection may be made in the afternoon of that last day except to a nomination paper delivered within 24 hours of the last time for its delivery, and in the case of a nomination paper so delivered no objection may be so made to the sufficiency or nature of the particulars of the candidate unless made at or immediately after the time of the delivery of the nomination paper; and
(b) the foregoing provisions do not apply to objections made in pursuance of rule 15(2).
Publication of statement of persons nominated. In the case of a general election or a by-election, at the close of the time for making objections to nomination papers or as soon afterwards as any objections are disposed of.
Polling In the case of a general election, between the hours of 7 in the morning and 10 at night on the [F2 eleventh] day after the last day for delivery of nomination papers.
Computation of time
2. — (1) In computing any period of time for the purposes of the Timetable—
(a)a Saturday or Sunday,
[F4 (b)Christmas Eve, Christmas Day, Maundy Thursday, Good Friday or a bank holiday]
(c)a day appointed for public thanksgiving or mourning,
shall be disregarded, and any such day shall not be treated as a day for the purpose of any proceedings up to the completion of the poll nor shall the returning officer be obliged to proceed with the counting of the votes on such a day.
(2) In this rule “bank holiday” means—
(a)in relation to a general election, a day which is a bank holiday under the M1 Banking and Financial Dealings Act 1971 in any part of the United Kingdom,
(b)in relation to a by-election, a day which is a bank holiday under that Act in that part of the United Kingdom in which the constituency is situated,
but at a general election sub-paragraph (b) and not sub-paragraph (a) of this paragraph applies in relation to any proceedings—
(i) commenced afresh by reason of a candidate’s death; and
(ii) extending, by reason of riot or open violence, beyond the time laid down by the Timetable.
F5 (3) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
F2 Word substituted by Representation of the People Act 1985 (c. 50, SIF 42), s. 24, Sch. 4 para. 73(a)
F4 Sch. 1 rule 2(1)(b) substituted by Representation of the People Act 1985 (c. 50, SIF 42), s. 19(5)(a)
F5 Sch. 1 rule 2(3) repealed by Representation of the People Act 1985 (c. 50, SIF 42), ss. 19(5)(b), Sch. 5
by
jimbo jones (being creature of the night)
October 5th, 2007 at 12:54 pm
Having attended a VAT seminar at my local Tax oofice this week, about 1/3 were poles of east europeans, obviously here and starting in business, good look to them!
Renting now cheaper than buying
For Sale signs
The report reveals that renting is generally cheaper than buying
The cost of renting a house in England and Wales is cheaper than the cost of buying it with a mortgage, say market analysts Hometrack.
Private rents in 2006 were two-thirds the cost of a 100% mortgage on a two- or three-bedroom house, for a young household on average incomes.
For many years, renting a home was thought to be just as expensive as buying one.
But that position has been changed by the rapid rise in house prices.
Professor Steve Wilcox of York University, who carried out the analysis, said that in many areas, people who were unable to buy a house could still afford to rent in the private sector.
“Not too long ago, there was little difference between the costs of buying and renting,” he said.
“But while house prices tripled in the years since 1994, private sector rents only increased in line with earnings, and the costs of renting have as a result fallen relative to the costs of buying,” he added.
The impact of the buy-to-let phenomenon on the property market is one reason why rents have been kept down, as a huge supply of properties to rent have come on the market in the past decade.
The report also found that nearly half of all households on the move were going into the private rented sector, which is now enjoying increased investment after a century of decline.
Stretched
The income that first-time buyers need to get on the housing ladder has reached unprecedented levels, the report also says.
The Hometrack research shows that the ratio of house prices to income has nearly doubled in the past decade.
An average house in Britain now costs more than five times the average first-time buyer’s income.
The average cost of a home in England and Wales is £176,300, according to Hometrack’s figures.
This ratio of house price to income is far higher than at the peak of the last price boom in 1990.
Despite a long period of low interest rates, mortgage costs as a percentage of income - seen by some as a fairer measure of affordability - have also virtually doubled over the same period to more than 32%.
The figures show the most expensive place to buy is the London borough of Kensington and Chelsea, and the cheapest is the district of Wansbeck in Northumberland.
All, these issues being allegedly brought forward.
The process would have started before the latest polls.
Yet another marginal Labour MP on at lunchtime, not want an election. What more evidence is needed it aint going to happen.
Labopur constituencies in marginals are not ready for it, and that is the reality.
Another day has passed on this marginal estate in a marginal constituency without anyone I know of being canvassed by phone or leafletted by Labour.
Presumably the Postal Strike is another reason not to have an election.
These will come during the camp[aign stopping or delaying all the Regional distribution and postal deleveries.
£16b on Cross Rail, let’s have an unnecesarry election that will cost millions more, lets do this and lets do that, more enormous sums of money,
yet we aboilish the 10% tax rate, my twenty somethings children will all have to pay more tax in April, there appear to be no flu vaccines available at the local surgeries or pharmacies, the elderly still have to pay for the care, losing their homes in the process, students are still worse off than in Scotland and Wales, where prescriptions are free, final salary pension schemes are going down the drain, Iraq and Afghanistan are endless but whey heh let’s have an election. Bloody crazy. AND THE MEDIA PLAY UP TO IT. It is putting even me off politics, and I have been involved since 1962!
If as the Guardian says the CSBR has some enticements to voters, it will also have:-
1. Eventual bad news for public sector pay rises after April 2008
2. Increase in borrowing which will feed through into interest rate increases towards end of 2008.
So Gordon then has just two windows for his election before these really bite.
A. Now
B. May 2008
What he risks is confrontation with public sector workers in the period leading into May 2008, maybe they will hold back, but maybe they won’t.
Which is why the smart move for him is to cut and run.
43,44: we are talking about Gordon Brown, The Great Nailbiting Procrastinator:
October poll - dithered and gone
Nov 1st - needs longer to dither over the post-conference polls; chance shortly to be lost
Nov 8th - good chance to dither another week. But what if the polls are still volatile next week…?
Nov 15th - good idea, wait till the week after. It’ll be cold and dark before 5pm whether I go on the 1st, 8th, 15th so what does another week matter. It means I can see how the polls settle down…
Actually, I can see some merit in Nov 22nd.
One thing IS for sure, this cannot go on and on forever. I think the press and the public are already deciding the man’s a joke - as most of us knew some months ago, and why many in the Labour Party were presumably so desperate to find an “Anyone But Gord” candidate.
Would Blair have got himself into this pickle? (Well, actually he probably would if his “no full third term” announcement was anything to go by…)
48. That said… One thing we can assert for sure is that Gordon has genuinely not decided AGAINST an election.
Because if he had decided NOT to go for it, he would have told us already - to stop the rot, and reduce the impact of the backlash. The longer he spins it out, the worse it will look, if and when he retreats.
He must know this. Ergo, he genuinely hasn’t decided against. Has he decided for, and is just keeping schtum? Seems unlikely. What’s the point?
So he is obviously biting the carpet in number 10, trying to make his mind up. Poor lamb.
It will be the 8th. GB will wait two days for polling response to PBR/CSR plus deflation of (another) temporary rise for the Cons, and then go to the Palace next Friday morning… with a decent spread of positive coverage next w/e as the election launch pad.
I’m getting confused now. If GB doesn’t call an election now is he a chicken who’s ‘bottled it’? Or if he does call one is he a chicken who’s ‘cutting and running’?
53 - “Because if he had decided NOT to go for it, he would have told us already - to stop the rot, and reduce the impact of the backlash. The longer he spins it out, the worse it will look, if and when he retreats.”
Alternatively, he has ruled it out in his own mind and is waiting for the weekend polls to make his mind up for him.
I mentioned in another topic today, Brown is certainly no Blair when it comes to media/PR. The way he and his advisors have let this election speculation escalate (and quite possibly backfire) is a marked contrast to the past ten years
by
anonymous and dangerous
October 5th, 2007 at 1:15 pm
49, Or wait till 2010, when any slowdown next year, will have been forgotten. And thats all it will be, a slowdown, in the construction we are at full stretch, and the activity has been crazy for months now. I’m afraid an economic disaster is not around the corner, much as some of u hope it is, to rescue your politcal fortunes.
My slant on the polls for whats its worth, mostly down to hardening of tory intention to vote, Labour percentage holding up, Gords personal ratings still miles ahead of Cameron. Certainly to be an election this November, maybe emergency legislation to enable weekend voting on 3/4th November to boost turnout, who would vote against that. The November weather issue is a red flag, not really cold in November, most people have coats these days u know. Supermarkets still full in November after dark, as is everything else. The only thing about 3/4th November is thats its Bonfire night!
53 he has made up his mind. he knows how bad things are out there and hes going to cut and run. announce some vote buying initiatives on tuesday and hope that a quick campaign allows him to sneak past voters again.
54 - to me, Brown just wants another 5 years of being PM, with all the trappings of power. He’s probably so pig-headed as to think that he can ride out the grief that will come his way.
by
anonymous and dangerous
October 5th, 2007 at 1:19 pm
47. November 22nd is Maggie’s 1990 ‘anniversary’…..who could resist the temptation of that?
I really do think that Gordon should take my finances into account. I’ve bought Gordon weeks on Spreadfair at the 45 week level at £40 a week. So a May 2010 general election would see me win £4,080.
You can keep going Gordon. Don’t let honest punters down.
There is an obvious reason as to *why* Gordon was considering calling an election this year and why he now, won’t.
I don’t think it was to increase his majority, get a mandate, extend his term of office by 18-months, or to annoy Blair..
It’s no secret. It was to SHAFT the Tories.
The media know this - briefed as they have been by Browns inner circle and advisors - that the cold calculation here was to, (a) call an election, (b) maintain or increase the Labour majority, so as to ensure that, (c), the Tories would *lose* seats and ensure that Cameron would be outed. This was to be a long-term strategic election. To permenantly destroy the modernising movement in the Conservative party and confine it to opposition for a generation. It would never again be a threat to Brown.
Kinnock gave the game away when he said, Labour want to “grind the b@st@rds into the dust” (well done) - other ministers (hush hush) quietly briefed it to the press.
Very, very dirty. Ruthless cunning. But, crucially… wrong.
The Conservative Party conference galvanised the Tories, united them, inspired them, motivated them, invigorated them. Everyone got behind Cameron and there were no splits, sniping, or criticism. Noone in Labour - or in my own party, actually - expected this. We surprised ourselves!
It was the most impressive and effective conference for years. The shadow front bench was incrediblel; Hague, Osbourne, Davis and IDS - particulary IDS. I’ve never seen my friends and colleagues so united. Noone seriously questions Cameron now, or his strategy now. They are fully behind him. Come what may.
So, Gordon has failed. Even if he does win the election, Cameron will not be outed, the Tories will not be destroyed. The party will not be confined to opposition, divided and depressed. Conservatives have confidence to fight on and win. Whatever it takes.
Therefore, the key objective of the election - to destroy the Tories - is no longer remotely possible. So there is no advantage in calling it.
57/65 - The Conservatives would not accept emergency legislation they would say that any such change needs to be considered properly not rushed through.
Re: weekend voting. How will the public react to having their free-time at weekends impinged upon by an election generally considered un-necessary?
Quite a few people I know spend their Saturdays taking their kids to play football in the morning, off to a game/shopping in the afternoon and then relax in the evening and/or go out. Repeat for Sunday.
Don’t think they’ll be too impressed with activists knocking on their doors during Jeff Stelling somehow
by
anonymous and dangerous
October 5th, 2007 at 1:26 pm
So why rush out all these anouncements before Tuesday evening? The PM sees the Queen on a Tuesday evening u know!
Re. the 1987 election on BBC Parliament - the BBC’s exit poll prediction was almost as bad as theirs in 1992, they predicted a majority of 26 for the Tories. I suppose they got away with it that year because they at least got the right party winning.
Also, amazing after 20 years how many of the same old faces are still around - Ken Livingstone, Blunkett, Kaufman, Rifkind, mostly on the Labour side though.
78 - because he is still grasping on to the feint hope that a clutch of polls this weekend will all show a 15 point Labour lead and he might then, just might, be persuaded to go for it.
54 dave (s), Brown is probably ok in Scotland. The SNP are so far behind in the GE05 votes from Labour, that barring a few gains they are not going to win many as they take few votes from Labour, most of their new votes in May elections came from the other parties.
85 - Yes because voters take notice of how far behind a party was and come to a collective decision on how to vote. If there is a sea-change in Scottish politics as there seems to have been in May then Labour are in trouble, and it will affect seats that look safe. Just ask all those 1997 safe Tories…
Bringing foward the Comprehensive Spending Review will not have happened last night. The Civil Service will have been told a revised date, probably up to a month ago. Let us keep everything in perspective and not go off at tangents with the BBC and the rest of the media.
The marginal Labour MP’s will decide all this and on the evidence they have decided, No way Jose!.
86. SeanT - Wouldn’t surprise me - just the sort of sh*t he’d do. Then claim he’s “listened”. What a f**king t0sser.
The Conservatives need to successfully paint Brown as an insincere opportunist who’ll say, backtrack, rehash, reuse, steal, copy ANYTHING to stay in power. And they need to do it fast…
I don’t think it was necessarily wise to call an election at this time because I always worried that voters might resent an unnecessary election. Nonetheless for whatever reason the hare has started running and is now probably unstoppable.
It doesn’t seem to be a common view on here but I think Brown will win comfortably. Speaking to pollsters before an election is called is one thing. When the country is faced with a Labour government they know or a Tory one which is unknown I don’t think it’ll even be close.
I’m hoping the polls widen to 4 or 5% by next Monday (private polls) so Gordon doesn’t weaken. He must now go for it and this little flutter should concentrate voters minds perfectly. Last time people had the luxury of abstention. This time they can’t afford to.
I’ve heard from several people say they like the IHT proposal but I’ve still to hear many who are ready to trust their luck to the Tories. Brown’s got to bite the bullet and raise IHT to £500,000. It’ll not only win back a certain type of voter but it’ll also be a good contrast to Osborne who will then be seen as distinctly to his right and the Tories still benefiting millionaires
.
9, 23 - There’s nothing like some actual data to back up an argument is there seant? It’s a shame then that your idol David Cameron has been caught out by Blunkett quoting statistics that are 10 years out of date in his speech.
Clearly Cameron is a politician of little brain.
by
Timothy (likes zebras)
October 5th, 2007 at 1:41 pm
104. If you follow your suggestion then George Osbourne is setting the economic policy for the country. Also Darling rubbished his plans last week - surely that will be the story not another £200k.
102 - great news indeed. What is emerging is that there wasn’t any “disciplinary hearing” at all, just a routine chat with the stewards. Some party - and you wonder which team might have been behind it - appears to have spun it to the media as something more serious.
A blatant attempt to destabilise Lewis, but which failed. It’s called “doing a Gordon”, I believe.
To all those believing Labour are at risk of losing a lot of their seats in Scotland they need to go and try out the Scottish calculator on electoral calculus. Remember that Labour are polling in Scotland in the 30s e.g. 37% recently, so please be realistic about the effect on seats. SNP gets its new votes mainly from the other parties.
Even if Labour are reduced to 30% (from 39) and SNP almost doubled to 30% (from 17) Labour only lose 5 of their seats.
106 Hardly. Brown is and would even if the Tories won an election (which they won’t) since George Osbourne promised to match Labour’s spending plans. There is quite alot of cross dressing going on, it cut’s both ways.
re 104 Roger you’re right voters do. There are plenty of examples like the by elections to replace Messrs Jenkins, Whitelaw and Brittan in recent years. All very safe seats which were very nearly lost.
105. Right. Yes. Convincing. You back up your argument that Cameron is dissembling by… quoting a letter to a leftwing newspaper from a failed Labour minister sacked twice for lying.
lol
104. I think the psychology of the PM is crucial here. Can you imagine the pain of a self-important but deeply insecure man like Brown, of being called “chicken” and “frit” and “coward” for the next three years?
Not nice. He may be forced to go just because the cognitive dissonance would be too painful if he doesn’t.
I think Labour might announce something on IHT next week. Maybe even a referendum. Not sure it will work. I think Brown, if he goes for it, will win with a much reduced majority. I think this will be regarded as a wounding result, which will swiftly be followed by an economic downturn. Brown may have to retire early.
The next election after that, maybe sooner than we think, will see a rampant Tory landslide.
I’m with seanT , the lack of polls is causing me withdrawl .
I know that tomorrow will be just as inconclusive and have me veering all over the place in whether there will be election but I shall still persist in believing that things will be clearer.
101. The burden of proof is on you “bally eric”. Who are you? Where are you? What is your source? How would you know?
For all I know, you could be a spotty little teenage nerd, sitting in your dark smelly bedroom in your parents semi-detached house in Surbiton, tapping away at your greasy and dandruff ridden keyboard, with copies of the Labour manifesto strewn all over the parent and loving how all important you feel about it.
110 - They are going on results from 2005. Things have moved on somewhat from there. The SNP picked up quite a few non-list Holyrood seats. There may be some SNP slippage as it will be a General election but I still think we will see some surprising results and a number of losses for Labour.
65 Mike - fwiw I have always that in his head Gordon has stuff to do for the sake of the history books, and needs 3 years at least - so 2010 is likely to be preferred.
However nothing like flying a kite and seeing if there is a chance of going earlier. If there is not, then not much if anything lost
Comparison of Blair and Brown Party Conference speeches - whatever you think of Blair at least he had the guts to confront tough issues in his speeches. Brown runs away and hides.
1) Iraq - Blair always talked about Iraq in detail. He knew almost everyone disagreed with him but he had the guts to stand up and say what he believed. Brown said one sentence and ran away.
2) Public Service reform - Blair always talked extensively about this. Again most of the (Labour) audience disagreed (though most of the public agreed) but he had the guts to say what he believed. Brown said nothing.
I am not a Labour supporter and it is now flavour of the month to lay into Blair. But Blair is a political giant compared to Brown.
124 - I agree entirely, going with what you believe to be true in the face of implacable opposition is courageous, and he didn’t have to write a book about it.
96 - “What would be the point in Scotland electing more SNP MP’s? They have their own Parliament now!”
But imagine how much leverage the SNP would have if Gordon Brown had to come grovelling to Salmond to keep his minority Westminster government in power that bit longer? How much would that be worth to Scotland? He could extract such a high price that the English would be desperate for the Scots to get independence! Looks like a fantastic platform for the SNP to me.
How ever much I wanted Blair gone and think he will be forever remembered for the Iraq misadventure it has to be said he would not have allowed the current mess to have happened
104. Roger. You argue that this little flutter in the polls should concentrate voters minds perfectly in the event that Brown calls a November election.
The danger as I see it is, whatever the polls say, is that voters are much more likely to say, “Why should I bother going out to vote in an unnecessary election? Just 2 years after the previous election. For what reason?”
Because one individual chooses to put his own political career above the needs of the country. Tories will vote alright. But Labour voters? In November? Big risk.
112 Osborne specifically didn’t say he’d match Labour’s spending plans - he said that in first three years of a Tory Government (so Nov 2007-Nov 2010) public spending would rise by 2% in real terms. That provides a deal of wriggle room if Gordon announces huge, but unaffordable spending plans next week.
Odd that “black holes” don’t appear in Labour spending plans isn’t it….
134: ‘…he [Blair] would not have allowed the current mess to have happened’
What political great Brown is! In a few weeks he’s managed to generate for himself unfavorable comparisons with Margaret Thatcher, John Major and Tony Blair. Now he just needs us to get nostalgic about Sunny Jim and he’ll be officially the worst PM in thirty years.
by
Stark Dawning (Shogun driver and proud)
October 5th, 2007 at 2:19 pm
re 104 ‘fraid I don’t agree with you Roger on the electoral arithmetic or IHT. Yes, Lab will end up well ahead of Tories but that’s not the point. It’s far too tight to be confident of a working majority. Take of the boundary changes and the wafer thin southern marginals and what are you left with?!
And I think on IHT it has to be ‘280k tax break for millionaires’, not ‘there’s a good idea but we only want to go to half a million’.
134. This ‘current mess’ as you call it is neither here nor there unless you are an avid reader of political blogs. Some things are passing and can’t be remembered after a day other things stay in the mind for weeks.
It’s the job of the ad agency during a campaign to remind voters of iconic images that they can take into the voting booths with them. My guess is Saatchis will be working on various pictures of ‘Zac and Dave’ and ‘Dave and Tony Litt’ which help reinforce the charge of incompetence. By the same token Gordon in Iraq might fly as a symbol of opportunism-but maybe not
145. Consider the power of an image of Gordon running to the polls and the slogan: “What does he know that we don’t?”
Why now, Gordon? What’s coming down the line?
It totally hollows out his reliable old Gordo image. Because, unlike many ad slogans, it is true. Gordo knows something we don’t. Otherwise why the rush?
Why is there such a rush? What IS about to happen? The Mail and the Sun, if they turn on Gordo (and they will if he doesn’t promise a referendum) could make hay with this line of attack.
145: My guess is Saatchis will be working on various pictures of ‘Zac and Dave’
Brilliant! Swamp the poster sites with pictures of two nicely turned-out young men discussing the eco system. If that doesn’t grind the bastards into the dust nothing will!
by
Stark Dawning (Shogun driver and proud)
October 5th, 2007 at 2:28 pm
145. If a photo of Cameron and Zac and Tony Lit is the best they can come up with, then it’s pretty desperate. These people are hardly being hidden indeed they were both very prominent at the conference. (I shaked hands the Zac, how exciting)
145 surely pictures of Dave with lots of fresh faced enthusiastic advocates of change might backfire - I would have thought some pictures of John Redwood and a message of ’same old tories’ would be better.
What is clear though is that the tories are a long way from 40-41% in the polls. Even leading Labour by 5-6 points will leave LAB as largest party so Gordon’s only pickle is a personal one.
I’m coming back round to my original view that he will leave it until 2010 when the economy is likely to be on an upward swing and he has decided on some policies.
144. Martin re IHT. I don’t know where you live but I was really surprised by the number of people who mentioned this IHT thing to me. Even people without aging parents with no parents at all or even with poor ones. It just seemed to hit a nerve in a way 2p off income tax never would have. I’m sure the people I speak to aren’t typical but it seems they are making the difference. Explaining that onlt 6% are affected or that it’s fair is difficult.
StJohn. It’s very hard to judge. I agree it’s a risk and for that reason Brown might have second thoughts-and in truth he’s not gaining a lot by going for it-however he has a good narrative in that he’s a new leader with new ideas and he wants a mandate. Also in my opinion Cameron is unelectable at the moment and the electorate know this -or they will do by the end of the campaign-but he’s talented and when he learns his trade he’s going to be formidable.
re 144 Live:Brighton - three seats and I imagine IHT will run well for Tories. I agree it’s difficult but I still think Lab has to take it on rather than let Tories lead the policy. The threshold has and is going up (too much in my view but sensibly in economic and political terms). 350k is a lot to be dispersed privately without any state interest. I’d rather put something in for public services when I’m gone!
120 - Seriously, gracelessly and arrogantly partisan as he is, ‘bally eric’ did have (and probably still does have) extensive Labour connections. I take what he says very seriously, though will be delighted were he to be proven wrong as that might induce a little humility ;).
159 I was among Tory voters -not activists- last night and the IHT promise seems to have enthused them like no other tax promise. The extra sum they stand to gain through inheritance with £1m tax free is enormous. I suspect this giant carrot will help bring round some Tory waverers.
No, rather the fact that it has been brought forward is a clear sign that an election is still a huge possibility.
I don’t see why
Not necessarily, although by the end of the speech you will know for sure.
Not sure- Couldn’t PM go to queen, then the CSR/PBR effectively becomes the starting issue of the election campaign? Opposition have to say what they’d do differently and bang, we’re off and into the race.
Also, is there any set time the PM has to see the queen by, i assume as long as it’s any time on the Tuesday, then 1st Nov still on- then the evening PM broadcast declares the electin.
Just to be clear- I’ve spoken to no-one about this and don’thave the faintest clue what’s going to happen!
Why Mike? What’s changed?
4 - If he goes and announces it not in Parliament it would be a mistake given Basra etc.
Why hide any PBR announcements on the day the election is announced ? Nov 8th or 2009..
Is it me or does Ian Hislop clearly tell someone to ‘f*ck off’ on last night’s Question Time?
http://tinyurl.com/jwqg5
It’s around about the 55th minute just after some inane remark from the audience about Burma. And what with Dave saying ‘p*ssed’ in his speech. The state of the nation…
[Sorry to go offthread and re-post, but I just want to assist Icarus in his basic political education.]
123. FYI Icarus.
2006 immigration figures for the previous two years:
Accession countries: 427,000 (about 600,000 including self-employed)
Dependants: 36,000
- total about 470,000-640,000
[EU-15 immigration is relatively negligible, estimated at just 25,000 in 2005]
Non-EU settlement: 318,330
plus 87,000 dependants
Granted asylum: 123,000
Non-EU work permits: 261,235,
total about 800,000
Source: Home Office
This matches other government estimates that non-EU immigration into the UK constitutes about 60% of the total.
The Lib Dems, by contrast, think EU immigration constitutes “95%” of the total, because of “lots of signs in Polish in my office”.
6. I didn’t think elections were traditionally announced in parliament? has Brown said that he would? Happy to be corrected on both points, haven’t really followed it!
1 That would be a big possibility from those same sources that assured you it would happen on Tuesday and Wednesday this week would it
I think it has to be announced before an election, because, by convention, ministers do not announce great changes in policy on the part of HM government once an election has been declared. Brown could still go to the Queen on the same day.
If I were Gordon’s friend to be honest I’d say go with your instinct, ignore the polls!
FWIW betting on 2007 has moved in dramatically, from 2.1 to… 2.08…
Is it the case that once the election is announced, Parliament is dissolved? So there won’t be the chance to give the PBR?
10 - Not explicitly but he said ‘major announcements’ in Parliament not on the media. Given the stick he has got over Basra, he would want to avoid similar at the start of an election.
13. Yeah, but what is his instinct? I’m not even sure he has instincts. Just cold and laborious calculations.
Gordo, make your f***ing mind up. Dance or get out the disco.
Continuing my discussion with Sean (reposted from previous thread)
Sean - your non EU settlement figure - I assume these are people who have been here for many years who,unlike Mr Al Fayed, have been granted citizenship.
If so the figures are 70% EU, 30% non EU. My 95% was an exaggeration!
PS. But so what. Without immigration the country would grind to a standstill. I thought Tories liked free markets?
Discussing the election at work and a friend who is a Labour party member and has done lots of canvassing in Sutton Coldfield of all places (which takes some dedication) opines that Brown has got to go now because the economy is going tits-up and he hasn’t a hope at any other time.
Nice that the brothers are so positive, isn’t it.
18- British Jobs for British Workers!
17 - Maybe the Tories should do a PPB with that Bucks Fizz track as a backing?
My understanding was that Brown would see the Queen Tuesday afternoon/tea time and the address the nation in the evening? I don’t think this would negate that scenario.
18. Who cares what you now think. You thought only 1 in 20 immigrants came from outwith the EU. You were out by a factor of ten. A factor of TEN.
You are clearly a poster of little brain.
Now you are trying to make it look a bit better, by roping in the grieving father of Princess Diana’s boyfriend.
Are you actually 15 years old? Would explain a lot.
http://tinyurl.com/yrgjr7
Guardian take on Darlings upcoming statement - sounds as if Fox Hunting (well shooting) has been reintroduced!
22 - The Queen, I understnad, will still be in Balmoral, so Brown would have to fly there.
23. You (Icarus) are clearly a poster of little brain.
Yes, I agree that is rather clear.
25 - Does it have to be done in person rather than over the phone?
Re 19, Chris A, Yes the brothers want to cut and run because they have buggered things up!
24- “Mr Darling is expected to confirm a squeeze on public pay in the coming years but further big rises in spending on education and overseas aid.”
Errr, is it really a good idea to cut public pay but increase overseas aid?
25. Interesting. That would make things tighter, but Brown could still get it all in within Tuesday evening, I’d have thought? Is Tuesday the final day on which he can call November 1st?
re 15 No. Brown could announce an election on say November 8th well in advance of dissolution.
30 - Yes it is.
re 25 No, HM back in London from Monday.
Surely he cant do the announcements and then go direct to the Queen. That would look so obviously like the most blatant piece of cynical opportunism since, well since last week’s Iraq visit. I think the hostile media would rip him to pieces for so obvious a manipulation of Whitehall for his own ends. What it surely means is that Nov 8th is still on but Nov 1st is off?
OK I’m bored now. There hasn’t been a sensational poll, or a shock announcement, or a significant move in the markets, for several minutes.
If this keeps up I may actually have to do some work.
November 8th I am in Egypt! Nightmare. Maybe I could fly home just for the night. Aaargh.
re several. I posted this yesterday, but the message still doesn’t seem to have got across. This explains all the timings
For the avoidance of any doubt here is Schedule 1 of the Representation of the People Act 1983, as amended
Part I
Provisions as to Time
Timetable
1. The proceedings at the election shall be conducted in accordance with the following Table.
Issue of Writ In the case of a general election, as soon as practicable after the issue of the proclamation summoning the new Parliament.
Publication of notice of election. In the case of a general election or by-election, not later than 4 in the afternoon on the second day after that on which the writ is received.
Delivery of nomination papers. In the case of a general election, between the hours of 10 in the morning and 4 in the afternoon on any day after the date of publication of the notice of election, but not later than the sixth day after the date of the proclamation summoning the new Parliament.
Delivery of notices of withdrawals of candidature. Within the time for the delivery of nomination papers at the election.
The making of objections to nomination papers. In the case of a general election or a by-election, during the hours allowed for delivery of nomination papers on the last day for their delivery and the hour following; but—
(a) no objection may be made in the afternoon of that last day except to a nomination paper delivered within 24 hours of the last time for its delivery, and in the case of a nomination paper so delivered no objection may be so made to the sufficiency or nature of the particulars of the candidate unless made at or immediately after the time of the delivery of the nomination paper; and
(b) the foregoing provisions do not apply to objections made in pursuance of rule 15(2).
Publication of statement of persons nominated. In the case of a general election or a by-election, at the close of the time for making objections to nomination papers or as soon afterwards as any objections are disposed of.
Polling In the case of a general election, between the hours of 7 in the morning and 10 at night on the [F2 eleventh] day after the last day for delivery of nomination papers.
Computation of time
2. — (1) In computing any period of time for the purposes of the Timetable—
(a)a Saturday or Sunday,
[F4 (b)Christmas Eve, Christmas Day, Maundy Thursday, Good Friday or a bank holiday]
(c)a day appointed for public thanksgiving or mourning,
shall be disregarded, and any such day shall not be treated as a day for the purpose of any proceedings up to the completion of the poll nor shall the returning officer be obliged to proceed with the counting of the votes on such a day.
(2) In this rule “bank holiday” means—
(a)in relation to a general election, a day which is a bank holiday under the M1 Banking and Financial Dealings Act 1971 in any part of the United Kingdom,
(b)in relation to a by-election, a day which is a bank holiday under that Act in that part of the United Kingdom in which the constituency is situated,
but at a general election sub-paragraph (b) and not sub-paragraph (a) of this paragraph applies in relation to any proceedings—
(i) commenced afresh by reason of a candidate’s death; and
(ii) extending, by reason of riot or open violence, beyond the time laid down by the Timetable.
F5 (3) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
F2 Word substituted by Representation of the People Act 1985 (c. 50, SIF 42), s. 24, Sch. 4 para. 73(a)
F4 Sch. 1 rule 2(1)(b) substituted by Representation of the People Act 1985 (c. 50, SIF 42), s. 19(5)(a)
F5 Sch. 1 rule 2(3) repealed by Representation of the People Act 1985 (c. 50, SIF 42), ss. 19(5)(b), Sch. 5
All the recent poll wobbles both ways tell is not to take polls during the conference season.
“a friend who is a Labour party member and has done lots of canvassing in Sutton Coldfield”
Wow! A real Labour insider then!
38. first bit of sense talked in weeks
Having attended a VAT seminar at my local Tax oofice this week, about 1/3 were poles of east europeans, obviously here and starting in business, good look to them!
Renting now cheaper than buying
For Sale signs
The report reveals that renting is generally cheaper than buying
The cost of renting a house in England and Wales is cheaper than the cost of buying it with a mortgage, say market analysts Hometrack.
Private rents in 2006 were two-thirds the cost of a 100% mortgage on a two- or three-bedroom house, for a young household on average incomes.
For many years, renting a home was thought to be just as expensive as buying one.
But that position has been changed by the rapid rise in house prices.
Professor Steve Wilcox of York University, who carried out the analysis, said that in many areas, people who were unable to buy a house could still afford to rent in the private sector.
“Not too long ago, there was little difference between the costs of buying and renting,” he said.
“But while house prices tripled in the years since 1994, private sector rents only increased in line with earnings, and the costs of renting have as a result fallen relative to the costs of buying,” he added.
The impact of the buy-to-let phenomenon on the property market is one reason why rents have been kept down, as a huge supply of properties to rent have come on the market in the past decade.
The report also found that nearly half of all households on the move were going into the private rented sector, which is now enjoying increased investment after a century of decline.
Stretched
The income that first-time buyers need to get on the housing ladder has reached unprecedented levels, the report also says.
The Hometrack research shows that the ratio of house prices to income has nearly doubled in the past decade.
An average house in Britain now costs more than five times the average first-time buyer’s income.
The average cost of a home in England and Wales is £176,300, according to Hometrack’s figures.
This ratio of house price to income is far higher than at the peak of the last price boom in 1990.
Despite a long period of low interest rates, mortgage costs as a percentage of income - seen by some as a fairer measure of affordability - have also virtually doubled over the same period to more than 32%.
The figures show the most expensive place to buy is the London borough of Kensington and Chelsea, and the cheapest is the district of Wansbeck in Northumberland.
I don’t think he’s go for November 8th. To me, its November 1st or nothing.
43. How long before Nov 15th gets an airing on here..
Someone on Betfair seems to be “laying” 2007 quite heavily. I think.
44 - Well last November election was on November 14th.
I think Brown should call an election for Nov 15th, and catch everyone out. (Sorry couldnt resist)
All, these issues being allegedly brought forward.
The process would have started before the latest polls.
Yet another marginal Labour MP on at lunchtime, not want an election. What more evidence is needed it aint going to happen.
Labopur constituencies in marginals are not ready for it, and that is the reality.
Another day has passed on this marginal estate in a marginal constituency without anyone I know of being canvassed by phone or leafletted by Labour.
Presumably the Postal Strike is another reason not to have an election.
These will come during the camp[aign stopping or delaying all the Regional distribution and postal deleveries.
£16b on Cross Rail, let’s have an unnecesarry election that will cost millions more, lets do this and lets do that, more enormous sums of money,
yet we aboilish the 10% tax rate, my twenty somethings children will all have to pay more tax in April, there appear to be no flu vaccines available at the local surgeries or pharmacies, the elderly still have to pay for the care, losing their homes in the process, students are still worse off than in Scotland and Wales, where prescriptions are free, final salary pension schemes are going down the drain, Iraq and Afghanistan are endless but whey heh let’s have an election. Bloody crazy. AND THE MEDIA PLAY UP TO IT. It is putting even me off politics, and I have been involved since 1962!
If as the Guardian says the CSBR has some enticements to voters, it will also have:-
1. Eventual bad news for public sector pay rises after April 2008
2. Increase in borrowing which will feed through into interest rate increases towards end of 2008.
So Gordon then has just two windows for his election before these really bite.
A. Now
B. May 2008
What he risks is confrontation with public sector workers in the period leading into May 2008, maybe they will hold back, but maybe they won’t.
Which is why the smart move for him is to cut and run.
43,44: we are talking about Gordon Brown, The Great Nailbiting Procrastinator:
October poll - dithered and gone
Nov 1st - needs longer to dither over the post-conference polls; chance shortly to be lost
Nov 8th - good chance to dither another week. But what if the polls are still volatile next week…?
Nov 15th - good idea, wait till the week after. It’ll be cold and dark before 5pm whether I go on the 1st, 8th, 15th so what does another week matter. It means I can see how the polls settle down…
Actually, I can see some merit in Nov 22nd.
One thing IS for sure, this cannot go on and on forever. I think the press and the public are already deciding the man’s a joke - as most of us knew some months ago, and why many in the Labour Party were presumably so desperate to find an “Anyone But Gord” candidate.
Would Blair have got himself into this pickle? (Well, actually he probably would if his “no full third term” announcement was anything to go by…)
48 - “Yet another marginal Labour MP on at lunchtime, not want an election. What more evidence is needed it aint going to happen.”
Do you think Brown cares? I expect all he wants is another 5 years of power regardless of his majority
48. Was it Nick P ?
48. That said… One thing we can assert for sure is that Gordon has genuinely not decided AGAINST an election.
Because if he had decided NOT to go for it, he would have told us already - to stop the rot, and reduce the impact of the backlash. The longer he spins it out, the worse it will look, if and when he retreats.
He must know this. Ergo, he genuinely hasn’t decided against. Has he decided for, and is just keeping schtum? Seems unlikely. What’s the point?
So he is obviously biting the carpet in number 10, trying to make his mind up. Poor lamb.
It will be the 8th. GB will wait two days for polling response to PBR/CSR plus deflation of (another) temporary rise for the Cons, and then go to the Palace next Friday morning… with a decent spread of positive coverage next w/e as the election launch pad.
51. But he aint going to have a majority, there are a lot of these marginals. It only takes 30 or so to go doesn’t it?
AND then there is Scotland.
I’m getting confused now. If GB doesn’t call an election now is he a chicken who’s ‘bottled it’? Or if he does call one is he a chicken who’s ‘cutting and running’?
53 - “Because if he had decided NOT to go for it, he would have told us already - to stop the rot, and reduce the impact of the backlash. The longer he spins it out, the worse it will look, if and when he retreats.”
Alternatively, he has ruled it out in his own mind and is waiting for the weekend polls to make his mind up for him.
I mentioned in another topic today, Brown is certainly no Blair when it comes to media/PR. The way he and his advisors have let this election speculation escalate (and quite possibly backfire) is a marked contrast to the past ten years
49, Or wait till 2010, when any slowdown next year, will have been forgotten. And thats all it will be, a slowdown, in the construction we are at full stretch, and the activity has been crazy for months now. I’m afraid an economic disaster is not around the corner, much as some of u hope it is, to rescue your politcal fortunes.
My slant on the polls for whats its worth, mostly down to hardening of tory intention to vote, Labour percentage holding up, Gords personal ratings still miles ahead of Cameron. Certainly to be an election this November, maybe emergency legislation to enable weekend voting on 3/4th November to boost turnout, who would vote against that. The November weather issue is a red flag, not really cold in November, most people have coats these days u know. Supermarkets still full in November after dark, as is everything else. The only thing about 3/4th November is thats its Bonfire night!
55. You’re right on both counts!
53 he has made up his mind. he knows how bad things are out there and hes going to cut and run. announce some vote buying initiatives on tuesday and hope that a quick campaign allows him to sneak past voters again.
So he goes down as the shortest PM in history!!! (in time that is)
Don’t think so.
and the list of dead soldiers for Wednesday’s PMQ has now increased to 25
54 - to me, Brown just wants another 5 years of being PM, with all the trappings of power. He’s probably so pig-headed as to think that he can ride out the grief that will come his way.
47. November 22nd is Maggie’s 1990 ‘anniversary’…..who could resist the temptation of that?
I really do think that Gordon should take my finances into account. I’ve bought Gordon weeks on Spreadfair at the 45 week level at £40 a week. So a May 2010 general election would see me win £4,080.
You can keep going Gordon. Don’t let honest punters down.
I agree with you burba chris about the weekend voting, this has been on the cards a long time.
Just think on a lighter note if Labour get their way, you’ll be able to vote at the Sainsbury’s at the next elecrion
55, 58 - it IS both, and that’s what makes his predicament oh so delicious!
65 - “Just think on a lighter note if Labour get their way, you’ll be able to vote at the Sainsbury’s at the next elecrion”
Extra Nectar points for voting for the Labour candidate then
64. I have £50 on Prescott NOT being enobled before January 1st Mike,I share your pain!!
Not sure even the great leader could get weekend voting thru in time for a Nov election.
64 - zero chance of that i’m afraid!
There is an obvious reason as to *why* Gordon was considering calling an election this year and why he now, won’t.
I don’t think it was to increase his majority, get a mandate, extend his term of office by 18-months, or to annoy Blair..
It’s no secret. It was to SHAFT the Tories.
The media know this - briefed as they have been by Browns inner circle and advisors - that the cold calculation here was to, (a) call an election, (b) maintain or increase the Labour majority, so as to ensure that, (c), the Tories would *lose* seats and ensure that Cameron would be outed. This was to be a long-term strategic election. To permenantly destroy the modernising movement in the Conservative party and confine it to opposition for a generation. It would never again be a threat to Brown.
Kinnock gave the game away when he said, Labour want to “grind the b@st@rds into the dust” (well done) - other ministers (hush hush) quietly briefed it to the press.
Very, very dirty. Ruthless cunning. But, crucially… wrong.
The Conservative Party conference galvanised the Tories, united them, inspired them, motivated them, invigorated them. Everyone got behind Cameron and there were no splits, sniping, or criticism. Noone in Labour - or in my own party, actually - expected this. We surprised ourselves!
It was the most impressive and effective conference for years. The shadow front bench was incrediblel; Hague, Osbourne, Davis and IDS - particulary IDS. I’ve never seen my friends and colleagues so united. Noone seriously questions Cameron now, or his strategy now. They are fully behind him. Come what may.
So, Gordon has failed. Even if he does win the election, Cameron will not be outed, the Tories will not be destroyed. The party will not be confined to opposition, divided and depressed. Conservatives have confidence to fight on and win. Whatever it takes.
Therefore, the key objective of the election - to destroy the Tories - is no longer remotely possible. So there is no advantage in calling it.
Ergo, he won’t do it. QED.
(sorry for the long post)
57/65 - The Conservatives would not accept emergency legislation they would say that any such change needs to be considered properly not rushed through.
From the previous thread…
Gordon Brown has ‘lent’ Northern Rock £11 Billion.
Does anyone believe that will be seen again.
Imagine what could have been done with £11 Biilliionn.
Casino Royale, you don’t have type a load of cobblers.
There will be an election.
Are there any more polls? I want a poll!
Re: weekend voting. How will the public react to having their free-time at weekends impinged upon by an election generally considered un-necessary?
Quite a few people I know spend their Saturdays taking their kids to play football in the morning, off to a game/shopping in the afternoon and then relax in the evening and/or go out. Repeat for Sunday.
Don’t think they’ll be too impressed with activists knocking on their doors during Jeff Stelling somehow
So why rush out all these anouncements before Tuesday evening? The PM sees the Queen on a Tuesday evening u know!
49. The CSBR may also be problematical for Labour given Browm’s uncosted promises made at last week’s conference
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/opinion/main.jhtml?xml=/opinion/2007/10/05/do0501.xml
Re 77, Noe are they impressed on a weekday evening when they get home from work and put their feet up. Theres always an answer to everything.
Re. the 1987 election on BBC Parliament - the BBC’s exit poll prediction was almost as bad as theirs in 1992, they predicted a majority of 26 for the Tories. I suppose they got away with it that year because they at least got the right party winning.
Also, amazing after 20 years how many of the same old faces are still around - Ken Livingstone, Blunkett, Kaufman, Rifkind, mostly on the Labour side though.
75. Ladies and Gentlemen, “bally eric” has spoken - there will be no election!
We must all bow to his superior insight and intellect!
I’m going down the bookies to put £1,000 on an election right away….
75. Ladies and Gentlemen, “bally eric” has spoken - there WILL be an election!
We must all bow to his superior insight and intellect!
I’m going down the bookies to put £1,000 on an election right away….
78 - because he is still grasping on to the feint hope that a clutch of polls this weekend will all show a 15 point Labour lead and he might then, just might, be persuaded to go for it.
Isn’t HM at Balmoral anyway?
54 dave (s), Brown is probably ok in Scotland. The SNP are so far behind in the GE05 votes from Labour, that barring a few gains they are not going to win many as they take few votes from Labour, most of their new votes in May elections came from the other parties.
78. Matthew “Partidge” thinks Gordon is gonna announce a referendum as well as an election. All at the same time. Quite a Tuesday.
Doh! Shot myself in the foot by accidentally posting the error and then the correction straight away
Doesn’t matter either way. Bally eric is still an ignorant tw*t.
65.
Well written Mike and the more honest punters who encourage Gord to soldier on the better.
Did I hear 2/1 about an autumn election?
I’ll go 5/2
How long before these marginal polls we are hearing about become public?
And isn’t Holyrood partly ’stv list elected’ too?
Haha! Well, maybe i know more about it than you do, CR?
56. Yes that’s right - he’s completely screwed this up. If I knew what a petard was….
85 - Yes because voters take notice of how far behind a party was and come to a collective decision on how to vote. If there is a sea-change in Scottish politics as there seems to have been in May then Labour are in trouble, and it will affect seats that look safe. Just ask all those 1997 safe Tories…
BTW That racing ‘tip’ given in the earlier thread came for Newmarket at 1.05pm in 12TH!!……..
Bringing foward the Comprehensive Spending Review will not have happened last night. The Civil Service will have been told a revised date, probably up to a month ago. Let us keep everything in perspective and not go off at tangents with the BBC and the rest of the media.
The marginal Labour MP’s will decide all this and on the evidence they have decided, No way Jose!.
What would be the point in Scotland electing more SNP MP’s? They have their own Parliament now!
86. SeanT - Wouldn’t surprise me - just the sort of sh*t he’d do. Then claim he’s “listened”. What a f**king t0sser.
The Conservatives need to successfully paint Brown as an insincere opportunist who’ll say, backtrack, rehash, reuse, steal, copy ANYTHING to stay in power. And they need to do it fast…
Get that media machine ready!!
95 - So it is a party of chickens, send in Liam Fox.
95. I’m hoping for funding from the CSR and within the last month a friendly source told us that the announcement would come in November.
91. No you don’t.
100 - how would you know?
O/T Lewis Hamilton still on for the title.
95. Brown advised by his kitchen cabinet - not MP’s in marginal constituencies - will decide. But I still agree with your conclusion!
I don’t think it was necessarily wise to call an election at this time because I always worried that voters might resent an unnecessary election. Nonetheless for whatever reason the hare has started running and is now probably unstoppable.
It doesn’t seem to be a common view on here but I think Brown will win comfortably. Speaking to pollsters before an election is called is one thing. When the country is faced with a Labour government they know or a Tory one which is unknown I don’t think it’ll even be close.
I’m hoping the polls widen to 4 or 5% by next Monday (private polls) so Gordon doesn’t weaken. He must now go for it and this little flutter should concentrate voters minds perfectly. Last time people had the luxury of abstention. This time they can’t afford to.
I’ve heard from several people say they like the IHT proposal but I’ve still to hear many who are ready to trust their luck to the Tories. Brown’s got to bite the bullet and raise IHT to £500,000. It’ll not only win back a certain type of voter but it’ll also be a good contrast to Osborne who will then be seen as distinctly to his right and the Tories still benefiting millionaires
.
9, 23 - There’s nothing like some actual data to back up an argument is there seant? It’s a shame then that your idol David Cameron has been caught out by Blunkett quoting statistics that are 10 years out of date in his speech.
Clearly Cameron is a politician of little brain.
104. If you follow your suggestion then George Osbourne is setting the economic policy for the country. Also Darling rubbished his plans last week - surely that will be the story not another £200k.
102 - great news indeed. What is emerging is that there wasn’t any “disciplinary hearing” at all, just a routine chat with the stewards. Some party - and you wonder which team might have been behind it - appears to have spun it to the media as something more serious.
A blatant attempt to destabilise Lewis, but which failed. It’s called “doing a Gordon”, I believe.
re 84 Yes she is, but back in London next week according to the Court Circular.
blunkett…….that discredited, dishonest, twice resigned fruitcake MP? He’s bound to be right.
To all those believing Labour are at risk of losing a lot of their seats in Scotland they need to go and try out the Scottish calculator on electoral calculus. Remember that Labour are polling in Scotland in the 30s e.g. 37% recently, so please be realistic about the effect on seats. SNP gets its new votes mainly from the other parties.
Even if Labour are reduced to 30% (from 39) and SNP almost doubled to 30% (from 17) Labour only lose 5 of their seats.
http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/
(predictions for Scotland)
Also the website Forecast uk predicts 37 Labour seats.
http://www.forecastuk.org.uk/
106 - and a good reason for the Tories to say “That’s why we’re not announcing all our policies - cos Gordon will just nick them.”
106 Hardly. Brown is and would even if the Tories won an election (which they won’t) since George Osbourne promised to match Labour’s spending plans. There is quite alot of cross dressing going on, it cut’s both ways.
sorry about the errant ‘
re 104 Roger you’re right voters do. There are plenty of examples like the by elections to replace Messrs Jenkins, Whitelaw and Brittan in recent years. All very safe seats which were very nearly lost.
72.
“The Conservative Party conference galvanised the Tories”
Heavy metal men. Something’s got to stop their coffin from rotting.
105. Right. Yes. Convincing. You back up your argument that Cameron is dissembling by… quoting a letter to a leftwing newspaper from a failed Labour minister sacked twice for lying.
lol
104. I think the psychology of the PM is crucial here. Can you imagine the pain of a self-important but deeply insecure man like Brown, of being called “chicken” and “frit” and “coward” for the next three years?
Not nice. He may be forced to go just because the cognitive dissonance would be too painful if he doesn’t.
I think Labour might announce something on IHT next week. Maybe even a referendum. Not sure it will work. I think Brown, if he goes for it, will win with a much reduced majority. I think this will be regarded as a wounding result, which will swiftly be followed by an economic downturn. Brown may have to retire early.
The next election after that, maybe sooner than we think, will see a rampant Tory landslide.
What about the poor honest punter who took Mike’s bet?
I’m with seanT , the lack of polls is causing me withdrawl .
I know that tomorrow will be just as inconclusive and have me veering all over the place in whether there will be election but I shall still persist in believing that things will be clearer.
re 110 and the person behind ForecastUK confidently informed us we’d be on day 3 of the campaign by now last week.
101. The burden of proof is on you “bally eric”. Who are you? Where are you? What is your source? How would you know?
For all I know, you could be a spotty little teenage nerd, sitting in your dark smelly bedroom in your parents semi-detached house in Surbiton, tapping away at your greasy and dandruff ridden keyboard, with copies of the Labour manifesto strewn all over the parent and loving how all important you feel about it.
In fact, I suspect it’s probably true
120 - yeah, sure, that’s me down to a tee.
110 - They are going on results from 2005. Things have moved on somewhat from there. The SNP picked up quite a few non-list Holyrood seats. There may be some SNP slippage as it will be a General election but I still think we will see some surprising results and a number of losses for Labour.
65 Mike - fwiw I have always that in his head Gordon has stuff to do for the sake of the history books, and needs 3 years at least - so 2010 is likely to be preferred.
However nothing like flying a kite and seeing if there is a chance of going earlier. If there is not, then not much if anything lost
Comparison of Blair and Brown Party Conference speeches - whatever you think of Blair at least he had the guts to confront tough issues in his speeches. Brown runs away and hides.
1) Iraq - Blair always talked about Iraq in detail. He knew almost everyone disagreed with him but he had the guts to stand up and say what he believed. Brown said one sentence and ran away.
2) Public Service reform - Blair always talked extensively about this. Again most of the (Labour) audience disagreed (though most of the public agreed) but he had the guts to say what he believed. Brown said nothing.
I am not a Labour supporter and it is now flavour of the month to lay into Blair. But Blair is a political giant compared to Brown.
124 - I agree entirely, going with what you believe to be true in the face of implacable opposition is courageous, and he didn’t have to write a book about it.
125. Going with “what you believe to be true in the face of implacable opposition” can be courageous. It can also be morally vain. Or mad.
Going with what you believe to be true in the face of implacable opposition is not courageous, if you happen to be in the head of a democratic govt.
I think the Cameron to Brown theme tune this weekend should be Sunblock’s “I’ll Be Ready” - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JJOFMIiOaQE
“Some people stand in the darkness
Afraid to step into the light
Some people need to help somebody
When the edge of surrender’s in sight..
Don’t you worry!
Its gonna be alright
’cause I’m always ready,
I won’t let you out of my sight”
124: ‘But Blair is a political giant compared to Brown.’
My loathing of ‘Our Tone’ knows no limits, but agreed: the Blair era is starting to look like a golden age.
“I’ll be ready (I’ll be ready)
Never you fear (no don’t you fear)
I’ll be ready
Forever and always
I’m always here.”
96 - “What would be the point in Scotland electing more SNP MP’s? They have their own Parliament now!”
But imagine how much leverage the SNP would have if Gordon Brown had to come grovelling to Salmond to keep his minority Westminster government in power that bit longer? How much would that be worth to Scotland? He could extract such a high price that the English would be desperate for the Scots to get independence! Looks like a fantastic platform for the SNP to me.
the only difference is that one is a better liar than the other.
107- the way F1 rules are bent in favour of Hamilton are shameful.
How ever much I wanted Blair gone and think he will be forever remembered for the Iraq misadventure it has to be said he would not have allowed the current mess to have happened
The really shocking news today comes from the 1987 re-run. The young(er) Ken Clarke was the spitting image of………David Cameron!
Here comes Maggie and the ‘inner cities’ moment…….
135. and the both smoke - spooky
And for those who are purists:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IuYrRebvFHc&mode=related&search=
Now, if I could find some video and a nice “BrownWatch” logo…
104. Roger. You argue that this little flutter in the polls should concentrate voters minds perfectly in the event that Brown calls a November election.
The danger as I see it is, whatever the polls say, is that voters are much more likely to say, “Why should I bother going out to vote in an unnecessary election? Just 2 years after the previous election. For what reason?”
Because one individual chooses to put his own political career above the needs of the country. Tories will vote alright. But Labour voters? In November? Big risk.
112 Osborne specifically didn’t say he’d match Labour’s spending plans - he said that in first three years of a Tory Government (so Nov 2007-Nov 2010) public spending would rise by 2% in real terms. That provides a deal of wriggle room if Gordon announces huge, but unaffordable spending plans next week.
Odd that “black holes” don’t appear in Labour spending plans isn’t it….
134: ‘…he [Blair] would not have allowed the current mess to have happened’
What political great Brown is! In a few weeks he’s managed to generate for himself unfavorable comparisons with Margaret Thatcher, John Major and Tony Blair. Now he just needs us to get nostalgic about Sunny Jim and he’ll be officially the worst PM in thirty years.
**** BREAKING WIND NEWS **** BREAKING WIND NEWS **** BREAKING WIND NEWS
The breaking news is that WIND is reporting to JNN the contents of a new ARSE polls of polls that gives :
Con 35.6% .. Lab 39% .. LibDem 14.8% .. Others 10.6%.
The PISSED Wells/Baxter Index with added SOAMES weighting gives :
Con 232 seats .. Lab 348 .. LibDem 40 .. Others 30.
Labour majority 46.
…………………
Sources :
WIND …. Whimsical Independent News Division.
JNN ….. Jacobite News Network.
ARSE …. Anonymous Random Selection of Electors.
PISSED .. Political Intelligence Seat Selector Election Determinator.
SOAMES .. System Of Amending Measured Election Scores.
Any polls planned for Sat or Sundays papers ?
re 104 ‘fraid I don’t agree with you Roger on the electoral arithmetic or IHT. Yes, Lab will end up well ahead of Tories but that’s not the point. It’s far too tight to be confident of a working majority. Take of the boundary changes and the wafer thin southern marginals and what are you left with?!
And I think on IHT it has to be ‘280k tax break for millionaires’, not ‘there’s a good idea but we only want to go to half a million’.
134. This ‘current mess’ as you call it is neither here nor there unless you are an avid reader of political blogs. Some things are passing and can’t be remembered after a day other things stay in the mind for weeks.
It’s the job of the ad agency during a campaign to remind voters of iconic images that they can take into the voting booths with them. My guess is Saatchis will be working on various pictures of ‘Zac and Dave’ and ‘Dave and Tony Litt’ which help reinforce the charge of incompetence. By the same token Gordon in Iraq might fly as a symbol of opportunism-but maybe not
2007 has just dipped below evens on Betfair.
105 TIMOTHY & 140 TED
Timothy - The stats were obtained from the Government via Parliamentary questions!
Brown by contrast has been rumbled by more objective commentators than Blunkett e.g.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/opinion/main.jhtml?xml=/opinion/2007/10/05/do0501.xml
145. Consider the power of an image of Gordon running to the polls and the slogan: “What does he know that we don’t?”
Why now, Gordon? What’s coming down the line?
It totally hollows out his reliable old Gordo image. Because, unlike many ad slogans, it is true. Gordo knows something we don’t. Otherwise why the rush?
Why is there such a rush? What IS about to happen? The Mail and the Sun, if they turn on Gordo (and they will if he doesn’t promise a referendum) could make hay with this line of attack.
Could someone pls remind me how Populus use the likelihood of voting measure in their weights?
145: My guess is Saatchis will be working on various pictures of ‘Zac and Dave’
Brilliant! Swamp the poster sites with pictures of two nicely turned-out young men discussing the eco system. If that doesn’t grind the bastards into the dust nothing will!
I am suddenly having memories of Jilted John.
I’d be very suprised if any Labour attack ads feature a picture of Cameron (or Zak) - as the ladies love ‘em - Osbourne yes though.
145. If a photo of Cameron and Zac and Tony Lit is the best they can come up with, then it’s pretty desperate. These people are hardly being hidden indeed they were both very prominent at the conference. (I shaked hands the Zac, how exciting)
Kenny Rogers’ Coward of the Country playing in the background on R2….Seems the Beeb have at last seen thro Gordon too!
121. Thought so
Controller BBC 1 resigns. Took on Queen and lost.
145 surely pictures of Dave with lots of fresh faced enthusiastic advocates of change might backfire - I would have thought some pictures of John Redwood and a message of ’same old tories’ would be better.
What is clear though is that the tories are a long way from 40-41% in the polls. Even leading Labour by 5-6 points will leave LAB as largest party so Gordon’s only pickle is a personal one.
I’m coming back round to my original view that he will leave it until 2010 when the economy is likely to be on an upward swing and he has decided on some policies.
153 - Swoon, you meet the lovely Zak.
144. Martin re IHT. I don’t know where you live but I was really surprised by the number of people who mentioned this IHT thing to me. Even people without aging parents with no parents at all or even with poor ones. It just seemed to hit a nerve in a way 2p off income tax never would have. I’m sure the people I speak to aren’t typical but it seems they are making the difference. Explaining that onlt 6% are affected or that it’s fair is difficult.
StJohn. It’s very hard to judge. I agree it’s a risk and for that reason Brown might have second thoughts-and in truth he’s not gaining a lot by going for it-however he has a good narrative in that he’s a new leader with new ideas and he wants a mandate. Also in my opinion Cameron is unelectable at the moment and the electorate know this -or they will do by the end of the campaign-but he’s talented and when he learns his trade he’s going to be formidable.
157. A long way from 41% in the polls?
They are 38% in the Guardian today. MoE, no?
142 Jack W thinks the use of ARSE, PISSED and breaking WIND is funny.
He is an embarrasment to himself and Scotland.
He is a reminder to the English how politics without Scotch would be.
re 144 Live:Brighton - three seats and I imagine IHT will run well for Tories. I agree it’s difficult but I still think Lab has to take it on rather than let Tories lead the policy. The threshold has and is going up (too much in my view but sensibly in economic and political terms). 350k is a lot to be dispersed privately without any state interest. I’d rather put something in for public services when I’m gone!
120 - Seriously, gracelessly and arrogantly partisan as he is, ‘bally eric’ did have (and probably still does have) extensive Labour connections. I take what he says very seriously, though will be delighted were he to be proven wrong as that might induce a little humility ;).
133- Ha! Replace the word Hamilton with Ferarri and you would be correct.
Watching the ‘87 broadcast, did the Tories really have 20 seats in Scotland in ‘83?
Defection alert - former Leeds West MP Michael Meadowcroft has joined the Lib Dems…
161
“Hailed as a Lord amongst wits when merely a wit amongst Lords”
164 - Yup, and in 1955 they had half the seats in Scotland.
Jack is one of the most interesting and graceful posters on here. You Eastern Eye don’t even know the difference between a Scotch and a Scot!
159 I was among Tory voters -not activists- last night and the IHT promise seems to have enthused them like no other tax promise. The extra sum they stand to gain through inheritance with £1m tax free is enormous. I suspect this giant carrot will help bring round some Tory waverers.