Sean Fear’s Friday Slot
October 5th, 2007
There’ll Be No Election This Year
Apart from a brief wobble last week, I have always been sceptical about the prospects for an Autumn election. I shall now stick my neck out, and say there will be no election this year.
There is no point in Gordon Brown calling an early election unless he can, at the very least, be sure of retaining Labour’s majority of 64. Should Labour be returned with a smaller majority, his authority will be weakened. If their majority were to fall to 30 or less, then Gordon Brown’s authority would probably evaporate, and he would be a lame duck Prime Minister.
Today’s opinion polls illustrate what a gamble Gordon Brown would be taking by calling a snap election. They point to a Labour majority of anything from 24 to 80 seats, on a uniform national swing. In all probability however, any Labour majority would be rather less than that, as several Liberal Democrat MPs who took seats off Labour in 2005, could expect to retain them on the basis of their personal vote.
Additionally, even if the Conservative vote share were to slip back slightly, as memories of their successful conference fade, Labour has consistently underperformed its opinion poll rating in every election since 1987.
Even the smallest underperformance by Labour, relative to its poll rating, could see the Government’s overall majority wiped out. Adding the risks that the Conservatives might perform especially strongly in London and the South, and that the SNP might gain from Labour in Scotland, it would be an extraordinarily reckless gamble to call an election this year.
Gordon Brown will doubtless suffer some embarrassment if an Autumn election is ruled out. But that would surely be preferable to risking an unnecessary election in which the best he could realistically hope for would be to retain his current majority, and the worst he could anticipate would be to see that majority destroyed. As several people have recently commented in relation to hedge funds, it would be like running on to a motorway to pick up pennies.
Last night, there were four by-election results:-
Hambleton District - Northallerton Broomfield: Conservative unopposed. Conservative hold. Labour won a third of the vote in this ward in May, so it’s surprising they should have let it go unopposed.
Leicestershire County - Shepshed: Labour 1217, Conservative 1074, Lib Dem 933, BNP 807. Labour hold. Labour hold. This was a good result for Labour, as they managed to keep the swing to the Conservatives down to 1.2%. The BNP’s best performance in a Leicestershire County Council seat in 2005 was 11%, so this result (like May’s district elections) implies that their support has grown considerably in the County since then.
Windsor and Maidenhead Borough - Datchet: Conservative 799, Lib Dem 352, Ind 102 . A comfortable Conservative hold, but there was a good swing to the Liberal Democrats.
Argyll and Bute Council: Helensburgh and Lonsdale. (1st count) Lib Dem 642, Conservative 627, Independent 493, SNP 356. (Final count) Lib Dem 1,014, Conservative 839. Lib Dem gain from Independent. The Liberal Democrats picked up the lion’s share of transfers, despite a slight swing to the Conservatives among first preferences.
Sean Fear is a London Tory and writes a regular column here
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So why wouldn’t Labour MPs in tight races secure a personal vote. E.g. I imagine Hove could stay Labour despite a swing.
You have spoken with such quiet authority Sean I thought there had already been an announcement!
Mixed feelings, I really want Gordon to do it because I am sure at the moment I will win here.
There you go.
Datchet by election is very sad, I didn’t know until today that the lady councillor there (who I knew well when I was Windsor Chairman) tragically died of cancer - a lovely and dedicated down-to-earth woman who I guess will be very sadly missed by all.
Just watched Skynews, they are saying the decision is too close to call.
Good luck Marcus it won’t be long now!
2. Unless the Labour MP in e.g. Hove was newly elected in 2005 their “incumbancy boost” can already be assumed to be factored in to their overall vote, whereas a “new” MP may expect some rise from name recognition, helping constituents out etc.
Unless there’s an “incumbancy gradient” and their personal vote rises inexorably time after time, which is possible but unlikely to be substantial after the first re-election, unless they begin to ascend the greasy pole and get a lot of media coverage
Sorry, should have been replying to 1 not 2
3 - If he goes they will be saying that on election night too!
4. Labour MP in Hove *was* newly elected in 2005
15:00 Tuesday - ‘no election this year’
15:01 Race to see who can be denounced first by a ‘loyal’ party statesman, Cameron or Campbell.
Many thanks for the article Sean, with which I agree. However Gordon may have allowed himself to be backed into a corner.
He may also get some duff private polling.
I am not as rock solid confident as I was that there will not be a 2007 election.
The main part of Sean’s article that I disagree with is this theory that many have expressed on this site that Labour is going to lose out in Scotland.
Mike, I suggest that Scotland warrants a separate thread to have people debate what are the range of possibilities for Labour in Scotland.
I suggest that Labour’s range of seats is from 33 to 44.
Anything under 33 seats for Labour is almost inconceivable because we have a situation where:-
1. The Tories are not advancing in Scotland
2. The Lib Dems are in decline in Scotland.
3. The SNP are so far behind Labour in the most seats that they would need to double their vote to really do damage.
Of course if Brown leaves it for a year or two, the SNP could well gain prestige and influence through being in Govt and then the position could change.
Is Gordons private pollster not the v dodgy CR ?
7. There may well be some incumbancy boost then.
Does it tend to transfer when the MP is from the same party or is some of the personal vote lost? Or is there no evidence one way or the other?
9 Duff polling from Ms Mattison?
13. For reference http://www.order-order.com/search/label/Deborah%20Mattinson
1. I think there are some Labour MPs who represent seats that have been notionally made Conservative, following boundary changes, who’d have a fair chance of holding on, unless there were a big swing to the Conservatives. Overall though, I think the likelihood is that Labour would perform worse than a uniform national swing would imply.
Of course the main reason Labour in Scotland do not want an election this year is because the weather will be so bad. or as discussed here that Labour MP’s don’t want to become part of the unemployed.
Sean do you think the bnp could destroy Lab in close marginals?
14 Purely conjecture but if I was providing carpet cleaning services privately to someone who was also the Chief Executive of a company that I had large contracts with I’d make sure that I really kept the domestic carpets clean. The risk to my business of failing to keep the CEOs domestic business is huge - a new CEO might well cancel or move to a new supplier.
Ms Mattison may not be in that position but I’m sure that her advice to Brown will be extra careful and lay out all the risks and assumptions.
OT - If there is an election, as Brown keeps banging on about his father the vicar. Whats the reckoning that Labour’s campaign song will be Dusty? Would definately sew up the pink vote.
I disagree Sean and am now convinced (again!) that there will be a 2007 GE. Mike and a number of others on here have expressed the view that any Labour lead of under 6% would make it a No-No, whereas I have argued that the tipping point is around 4%. According to Jack W’s “poll of polls” Labour’s average post Tory press conference is circa 3.6% - sufficient to give Brown an increased and more than respectable majority of around 75 seats and therefore protecting the well-padded backsides of just about all the incument Labour MPs, other than those few who will lose out through boundary changes.
Only a further clearly identifiable shift of support evidenced by the weekend opinion polls will now deter Brown from announcing an election next week and after the initial euphoria following the success of the Tory conference, I expect if anything to see the polls move somewhat in Labour’s favour making such an election an absolute certainty.
My expectation of the outcome - a Labour majority of 94 seats.
Sad but true!
10 HF. Generally agree. At present Nats likely to take mainly from Lib Dems. Nats success in the Scottish elections was probably largely due to an ineffective election campaign by Labour and the Nats are already seen to be breaking election promises. They may not gain more seats later as you suggest.
Scottish Tories heavily recruiting new members this week in some of
their target seats but expect end result if early GE Nil to 3 Tory seats.
17. Not really. I think that overall, they draw support roughly evenly from Conservative and Labour, but the effect can vary in different seats. There may be one or two seats that Labour loses because of BNP intervention, but there may also be one or two that they hold against the trend, or even gain, for the same reason.
20. The post conference average is 2.3%, so far. And Labour almost always does worse on polling day than its eve of poll rating suggests.
I’m with you Sean - solid for no election but a bit of flutter last week
It is not that risky a charity for GB to fly a kite, and then if it looks good, then go for a poll.Or the reverse.
A bit of egg on face but not much
IHT one of the few policies that still applies north of the border so could be a vote winner there too
When was the last time we had so much will he/won’t he nonsense? I can’t remember John Major flirting with the idea of an election after the Gulf War in spring 1991, though I suppose he must have done? But certainly not to this extent?
So, I suppose that leaves Callahan in 1978? Or maybe Heath/Wilson in the two 74 elections? And going even further back, Wilson in 70?
How many of the cabinet that GB really relies on in a big way have small majorities? Could this influence his decision?
20 PfP. The ARSE poll of polls is slightly skewed in Labours favour because it includes the MORI from last week showing an 8 point lead.
If the next MORI falls in line with the overnight polls then the lead will be a tad under 3%.
My penny’s worth: no General Election. I think the Labour spin machine is keeping the prospect alive (’decision still too close to call’ etc.) because, after all the hype and bravado, they’re desperate not to give the impression that Dave was able to scare them off, turn everything on its head, with one speech.
10 - Re your point 3 - The polls indicate that that may be very close to happening.
22 Sean Fear, the polls for Scotland (albeit small samples) are reported by Forecast UK as showing a large reduction in the Lib Dem votes with the Labour vote down just 2% on 2005.
I dont understand how Labour are going to do better in the Spring or 2009?
31 - I’m going to try and do an update on the regional swings this weekend so we can see a bit clearer what’s currently going on.
Election Results: Thursday 4th October 2007.
Argyll and Bute UA, Helensburgh and Lomond South
LD Andrew Nisbet was elected at stage four.
The percentage poll was 37.4% and the quota was 1060.
LD gain from Ind. Last fought 2007.
Hambleton DC, Northallerton Broomfield
Con elected unopposed.
Con hold. Last fought 2007.
Leicestershire CC, Shepshed
Lab 1217 (30.2; -12.7), Con 1074 (26.6; -10.2), LD John Popley 933 (23.1; +2.8), BNP 807 (20.0; +20.0).
Majority 143. Turnout 37.3%. Lab hold. Last fought 2005.
Windsor and Maidenhead UA, Datchet
Con 799 (63.8; -8.6), LD Tim O’Flynn 352 (28.1; +12.0), Ind 102 (8.1; +8.1), [Lab (0.0; -11.5)].
Majority 447. Turnout 35.8%. Con hold. Last fought 2007.
26 - there was reams of election speculation from the gulf war until the announcement of polling day in 1992…although not as rabid because the media was a slightly different beast then.
Someone’s trying to get nearly a grand matched on there being a 2007 election, and has pushed the price in to 10/11. This one might not be over yet…
2007 election now odds on again
23,28 OK, so Jack W slightly over-egged Labour’s probable current lead, but is it not also invariably the case that the Party in power prior to a dissolution, invariably gains support during the campaign (presumably on a “better the devil you know” basis).
Incidentally for those who agree with me, Wm Hill are offering 11-10 against a 2007 GE, compared, currently, with even money, less 5% commission, on Betfair.
“but is it not also invariably the case that the Party in power prior to a dissolution, invariably gains support during the campaign (presumably on a “better the devil you know” basis).”
Did that happen in 2001 and 2005?
“Lib Dem 642, Conservative 627, Independent 493, SNP 356″
So first preferences are LD 30.3%, Con 29.6%, Ind 23.27%, SNP 16.8%
First preferences May 2007: LD 32.24% Con 26.36% Ind 22.78% SNP 18.28%
37 In the last two elections, Labour has performed worse than its poll rating at the start of the campaign.
32 Peter O, that would be good, it would also be interesting to see a table and graph on how the Scottish parties % are changing for each polling company that you have figures on.
The samples are small but are they reasonably consistent or varying by huge amounts?
31 There has only been 1 specific Scottish Westminster poll in recent months Yougov back in August , I recall that the subset samples that Forecast UK have based their prediction on are based on just ComRes and Populus and not really worth a great deal . Mori too publish subsets for Scotland in their polls and they are rather worse for the SNP and better for LibDems and Labour . Average of their last 3 polls is from memory something like LibDems 16% SNP 23% and Labour circa 44% . The 2 Scottish byelections we have had again support this sort of figure .
Interesting that the only party to increase it’s support in all the byelections this week were the LibDems especially as the Shepshed result was in a marginal ward in a marginal constituency exactly the sort of place where LibDem support is supposed to have collapsed .
http://cgi.ebay.co.uk/Has-Gordon-Lost-his-Bottle_W0QQitemZ140165080428QQihZ004QQcategoryZ88433QQtcZphotoQQssPageNameZWDVWQQrdZ1QQcmdZViewItem
For a worthy cause
The crucial question is why has the Conservative poll rating risen?
There is the Smithson hypothesis that simply putting Dave on telly boosts the party. Cameron would be highly visible during an election campaign.
The press is going with inheritance tax but as was suggested on pb.com weeks ago, this is an easy fox to shoot. Many hacks have a vested interest here, of course. MPs too.
More likely imo is that simply having any policies at all gives floating voters a reason to vote Conservative. It also takes the heat off Dave by giving activists something to campaign for.
I’m a layer of 2007, btw.
OT - N & C Hamilton on Ready Steady Cook now.
You Labour people are just praying he goes for it aren’t you?
Really, I understand how hard this is going to be for you when it doesn’t happen - we went there time and time again with Mr Major.
But he isn’t going to do it because whatever you and I may think the future holds for the country, Gordon Brown believes that it will get better with himself at the helm.
He just does.
41 - A quick scan now shows that Lab and Lib Dm are doing better then my last analysis, but SNP still around 30% mark - that’s close enough to be snapping around the heels of those vulnerable Labour seats. Conversely, Lib Dems doing even worse in SW.
I’ll wait till I have the full Populus figures (and perhaps CommRes if they do a poll this weekend). That’ll give us a last month’s baseline to compare against.
PaddyPower’s market on when the GE will be called (bets voided/money back if no GE called) is back up….
http://tinyurl.com/3bxnq2
Tues 9th is still odds on, but given the the previous thread highlighted the PBR as being scheduled for Tuesday, not Monday as originally leaked, making Nov 8th potentially more likely than Nov 1st giving Gordon until Tues 16th to decide, then the 6/1 they offer for any dates after the 9th might be value.
I dont quite know why but the price on Election before end of this year has just started to get thumped down again on Betfair.
In the last 10 minutes it has gone from 2.2 down to 1.9 offered.
Any reasons??
Sorry 1.84 offered .
Could be a bit of profit taking i suppose
48. Apologies, they’ve dropped it to 3/1 now I’m afraid.
49/50 General panic ? last night was carnage on there 1.6 > 2.5 in less than an hour….
Previous:
“I think all these uniform-type forecasts putting the LDs down on about 20-30 seats will prove way off the mark.
Their share will go down, but will invariably be shored up in their key seats, and will go up where they are facing a Labour incumbent. They’ll lose a handful of seats back to the Tories, but probably continue their progress in the inner cities:
I think a realistic forecast is something like this:
Lab 310
Tory 240
LD 65
Others 35
by Tory Ben October 5th, 2007 at 12:34 pm”
I agree with the idea that the Lib Dems will likely pick up seats from Labour but given I see up to Ten at real risk to the Tories under Ming, they’ll really have to shift against Labour. Be interesting if the No2IDcard wheeze on this takes off. If it did and I say IF all sorts of funny things could happen
188 The Tories in Cardiff Central had a decent core their until 2001 when their vote dropped off a cliff once local Tories took a look at the figures and realised getting rid of Jon Owen Jones was on. Areas that were known as strongly Tory were festooned with Winning Here placards by 2005. Should the Lib Dems really move clear into 2nd in Cardiff South or West much the same process could occur
Looks to be more than profit taking.
Can’t see how Brown can go. It must all look a huge risk to him.
Given that there must be a very limited pool of people who know Brown’s true intentions, one suspects the BF market must be moving with some latest media speculation.
52-Harry
Yes and if you had been following this board yesterday afternoon you would have made a nice little sum.
42 Mark Senior, Below is the link to the page on Scottish polls and there is no Yougov Westminster poll shown for August. At 15% the Lib Dems are 7% down on GE05 whilst the SNP are up 11% to 28%. Lab were down 4% to 35%.
http://www.ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/scottish-voting-intention/
I wont comment on the by election figs as this indicator proved to be a less than useful indicator of May’s local elections.
re 52 it went over 2/1 for a while - I got several chunks at 9/4.
One thing not being factored in is the improvement in the performance of Ming Campbell. He had an excellent Question Time yesterday and the audience were right behind him. He is (slowly) growing in stature as a Party leader.
I don’t see Labour winning more than a handful of seats from the Lib Dems and will probably lose 10-20 to the tories and a few to SNP aswell. Brown might get a majority around 25-30 and there would be 5 years on the clock again - which could come in handy if Gordon has seen some storms on the way.
However, all things considered, it’s a big risk and not one a cautious man is going to take. Neither do I believe the the public will think that Brown has ‘bottled’ it. Only a stupid man would call an election 2 1/2 years early without strong polls in his favour.
47 Sorry Peter but IMHO , you are on the wrong track in trying to take these subsets and turn them into Scottish seat forecasts . The Populus Times survey for the 27th Sept for example has Labour on 49% and SNP on 29% , putting those figures into the infamous Baxter would lead to SNP having just the 6 seats they already have . The subsets are too small to be meaningful and the mechanism for turning them into seat forecasts is faulty .
54. “Given that there must be a very limited pool of people who know Brown’s true intentions,” - I am sure the pool of people is nil.
40 Sean, I was referring to parties’ comparative poll ratings at the start and end of election campaigns, rather than the actual GE results. Maybe you are correct about the reverse being the case in 2005, but historically hasn’t there usually been a move towards the outgoing government party?
46 You Labour people are just praying he goes for it aren’t you?
Actually, Marcus, I’m a Tory and hope I’m wrong in my expectation of a 2007 GE, which I believe we would lose comfortably.
Naturally, I wish you every success.
59 - I’m not making my predictions for seats on them but we can use them to see the regional variations in the polling.
Here is an average of the “small sample” Scottish polls in Sept 07.
http://www.alba.org.uk/polls/2007westminsterpolls.html
SNP 35 % LAB 40 % TORY 11 % LD 9 % OTHER 5 %
(4 UK-wide YouGov and Populus)
My congratulations on a very well written piece,Sean,and no doubt it will brought to the notice of the Prime Minister.
My betting strategy is somewhat in tatters,however this weekend will bring more twists and turns in the “Bring It On ” saga.
I may as well heed my families advice and stake even more on Arsenal Football Club to win the Premiership title!
62 After your last “confident GE prediction” didn’t hold water, don’t you think caution is in order on predicting this
56 HF , You can find the poll dated 20th August( for the ST ) listed on the Yougov website . Anthony must have missed it in adding it to his site , but my point is that even with SNP at circa 30% they will gain very few seats in a Westminster election .
61. PFP - Don’t mistake my expectation of what will happen with what I want to happen - personally (and completely selfishly) I would love an election this year; not because I think we’d romp to No 10 but because I am sure I would win in Torbay and that Gordon Brown will lose most or all of his majority.
That would offer me the oh-so-tantalising prospect of actually being in parliament to witness the final death throes of New Labour.
I have always been fascinated by stories of the 1978-79 Callaghan years and the final vote of no confidence that he lost by one.
47. Even if the SNP polled 30% (up from 18%) in Scotland and Labour 35% (down from 40%), that would still only net the Nats around three seats.
67.Marcus-I was at parliament on that fateful day in 1979 and witnessed the debate leading to the confidence vote.
It was on a school trip and as with so many things in the past it did not seem that momentous at the time.
It was first sight of Thatcher in the flesh.
Halcyon days…
61 Historically, incumbents used to perform worse in mid term, before seeing their vote recover in the run up to a general election. That pattern hasn’t really held good since 1997 (in opinion polls, that is. The old pattern has continued in local elections). Labour enjoyed a huge poll lead from 1997-2001 (bar the period of the fuel protest) but its poll lead wasn’t replicted in the 2001 election (although it still won easily). Labour enjoyed a very substantial poll lead from 2001 until the Iraq War, since when its poll results fluctuated, until Cameron became Conservative leader. The Conservatives then led until Brown took over.
There’s certainly no historical pattern of an incumbent party putting on support (compared to its poll rating) during an election campaign. Incumbents lost support in 1970, both elections in 1974, 2001 and 2005, and there was little real change in 1979, 1983, and 1987. 1992 is the only clear example I can see of the incumbent putting on support.
Marcus, have you seen this on 1979?
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/programmes/bbc_parliament/3565551.stm
Also, this is a touching story about Weatherill
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bernard_Weatherill#Member_of_Parliament
I agree with Sean.
Reasons for not holding an election:
1. Brown has a history of caution. He hasn’t spent his political career striving to become PM only to throw it away after four months and become the shortest serving PM since Canning in 1827 (and he had the excuse that he died).
2. The polls are within the margin of error for a hung parliament.
3. General Elections have a life of their own and cannot be organised, however much of a control freak you are. 1970 is a classic example as is Feb 1974. In 1970 Wilson’s 12% lead evaporated in a complacent campiagn which was derailed in the last week by a Balance of Payments deficit of £30m which seemed to support Heath’s claim that the economy was in trouble. In Feb 1974 Heath tried to focus the campaign on ‘Who Governs Britain’. The Wilberforce inquiry into miners pay undermined his campaign. David Cameron, a more attractive and better campaigner than Brown would get lots of exposure and with no 10 years in power record to defend can concentrate on fresh policies. The IHT and Stamp duty promises have already helped hmi seize the moment. Expect more such promises.
4. The press hates a shoo in and love a change. A hung parliament or a Tory Govt means lots of new stories to write.
5. The weather. Piers Corbyn, the long range weather forecaster texted Labour MP brother Jeremy last weekend saying ‘Bad weather including storms and rain at the end of October/beginning of November, tell Gordon’.
6. The public don’t want an election and will question Brown’s motives and wonder what bad news is to come.
7. 1st or 8th November is after the clocks go back and it will dark before 5pm. Canvassers will be reluctant to go out, people will be reluctant to answer the door. Even with telephone canvassing it will be a problem to get people to vote on the day as it will be dark at 4.30. These days voters don’t want to go out once they have settled in for the evening. More elderly voters vote in the day time giving them a greater proportion of the vote than normal. The Conservatives have greater support amongst the elderly.
8. Those who want to get the government out are more likely to vote then those who are happy with it.
9. Marginal seats. The Tories have a large war chest and are already spending in the key marginals to good effect. Any differential increase in the Tory vote in the marginals particularly in the M25 belt would help to deprive Labour of its majority.
10. LD weakness. Polls show swing to Conservatives in LD seats which could give Conservatives 20 seats.
11. Boundary changes reduce the 66 majority to 48 before campaign starts.
12. Scottish voters reported, by Labour MPs,to be suffering voter fatigue. Doubts about SNP/Lab battles.
13. Labour has no candidates in palce in 200 plus seats and indications are that Labour MPs are not taking suggestion of imminent election seriously. See Christine Russell MP (Chester) interview with Michael Crick, Newsnight Wednesday Oct 4th and Diane Abbot comments on last night’s This Week.
71. Also, there’s the touching story of Jim Callaghan taking the time to write a letter to the sick Labour MP Alfred “Doc” Broughton, telling him not to worry about having missed the vote that ended his government. Broughton died four days later.
Why are there no gentlemen in politics today?
72. Yeah but apart from that can you think of any reason he wouldn’t go for it?
The Lib Dems are in real trouble, based on recent polls, aren’t they? Wouldn’t a radical option for them now be to announce an anti-Labour pact with the Tories? They could save plenty of seats that way.
75-They cant do that because most of them are closet labourites..
75. Ming is an establishment politician who dreams of being invited into Government - with Labour. I believe his performance has improved of late but the nagging thought remains that he just wants to get a job off his mate from Fife.
75 - I am not sure that they would. They seem to be hoovering up disenchanted Labour voters by being left of labour. If they went into an anti-Labour pact with the Conservatives then they would lose disenchanted Labourites and probably wouldn’t gain much in terms of tactical votes. The Conservatives haven’t forgiven the decapitation tactic, not that they liked the Lib Dems previously.
72 “Labour has no candidates in palce in 200 plus seats and indications are that Labour MPs are not taking suggestion of imminent election seriously.”
Is it conceivable that Labour is thinking of running a strategy of not putting up candidates where the LibDems are second? Nothing formal, and purely on the basis that some of these seats would then be lost by Tories and thus keeping Labour as the largest party - with a larger group of Libdems with whom to form a coalition? It would risk the accusation that it was no longer a national party - but they would argue that with virtually no representation in Scotland and Wales, neither are the Tories…
Labour didn’t put up a candidate at the Datchet by-election last night. Straw in the wind?
72. So why 2007 odds on on betfair ??
79 - If they did that there would be hell to pay.
(haven’t had time to read the thread yet, but..)
Sean, I agree with your analysis of why it would be very risky for GB to go now but not your conclusion (that he will definitely back off).
There are a range of things which could cause the Lab majority to disappear, only a few of which have to happen. I don’t think it’s nearly as good as evens that LAb maj would be same or higher than 2005. So from GB perspective, he should call it off, despite damage to image.
However…from perspective of Lab as a whole, he should go for it. This is probably best chance of Lab working majority that would run through to Olympics. If it’s doesn’t work out Lab is still clearly largest party and can probably trundle on in some way. There isn’t that much that Lab would really want to do which both Con and LD would strongly oppose. But GB, of course, would be undermined.
75 I refer you to 53. This No2IDCard campaign could mean nothing or something for this
72 I saw the Chester piece. The Tories easily won the PR battle and looked up for it, Labour looked lazy and the Lib Dems well Lord Rennard must have been having kittens when he saw how they let themselves look.
Are there any polls out tonight??
79 I think the Lib Dems would pay heavily for that. Just imagine how much Marcus and his friends would love to raise the old accusation that they are nothing more than the rural wing of Socialism. If that happened I think they would have an easy time convincing people of this
83.Punter That is how the Lib Dem activists look all over the place.
If it were a beauty contest i would encourage them to skip the swimsuit section
79 I think it’s unlikely that any governing party would want to write off one third of the country in that way. Labour still has councillors and activists in those areas (albeit far fewer now than 10 years ago) who would be infuriated at being left in the lurch.
79 - hell to pay from whom? If Labour were never going to win the seat anyway, you tell your local activisits to go for Plan B, which is to cause maximum distress to your opponent. The Tories have fewer opportunities to retaliate - and anyway, part of the Tory stratey is to try and show that they have not given up on the metropolitan areas.
Anybody know how long before election day the candidate’s papers have to be submitted? Is this a stunt Gordon could pull if the first few polls after calling the GE looked horrible?
86 There is however an extremely attractive Lib Dem councillor in Hertsmere, Laura Gray.
79, 200 sounds like an exageration to me, and in any case the NEC are ready to impose candidates. In the only seats I know without candidates formally selected there has already been consultations and and informal agreements reached, to be rubber stamped if (when) GB calls the election.
89.-Have you any pictures of her in a swimsuit?
79 But, Labour is just as vulnerable to this sort of a strategy.
If it happened, the Tories would surely retaliate in a whole host of seats where the LibDems/nationalists are in second place to Labour.
As Punter has pointed out, this is what caused seats like Cardiff Central to fall.
Where’s tim when you need him? I notice that the BBC are reporting that Darling is going to lower the government’s forecast of growth from 3.0 to 2.5% and most economists agree that it’ll be no better than 2.2%. This means that the government’s tax figures “don’t add up” to such an extent to make Osborne’s miscalculations (if any) look like small change you wouldn’t bother to pick up in the street.
I don’t know why the opposition doesn’t make more of is.
79 - that could be the daftest post on here in what has been a day with more than its fair share of daft comments!
most city economists have a forcast of 1.8-2.0 range……or lower. cutting and running is the only option. its not the gamble everyone assumes when gordo knows whats coming.
92 Thanks Gwynfa. Yes I think seats such as Cardiff South, Swansea West and Newport East would see the paperest of paper campaigns run by the Tories if that happened. Possibly add Cardiff West as well. I think as mentioned that if the Lib Dems break clear in Cardiff South and Cardiff West then central seems to show they will break the Tory vote fairly quickly putting Labour in trouble far quicker than they think
re 88 I’d refer you to the timetable I posted at #37 on the last thread.
Judging from the list of Liberal Democrat candidates they do not seem very prepared, whatever they say publicly, from a quick check of their web site there seem to be about 200.
Round this area you have to did deep to find one, this and the neighbouring constituencies do not seem to have anyone.
Are they taking on this nonsense seriously?
“Speculation is continuing to mount that Gordon Brown will call a November general election next week.
The government says its Comprehensive Spending Review - which sets long-term spending plans - and pre-Budget report will be brought forward to Tuesday.
This is the last day on which Mr Brown can call an election for 1 November.”
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/7028677.stm
He probably knows it’s going to be close but thinks he can’t afford to be labelled a wimp. Tough call.
94 - “Daftest post of the day” Hurrah. Fame at last….
We’ll see. If he thought the alternative was the Tories forming a Govt, Brown would do it in an instant.
And let’s be real - this election will have no impact for two thirds of the country anyway. We all know right here, right now exactly how 450+ seats will be won in a general election. Not a single surprise is going to happen in those seats. If you don’t vote for the party in charge now, you are effectively disnfranchised. They will vote as they have voted for decades. If Brown could remotely shake up some of those 450 seats - by turning them int meaningful contests - who says he isn’t doing a favour to democracy by withdrawing his candidates?
66 Mark Senior “but my point is that even with SNP at circa 30% they will gain very few seats in a Westminster election”
We agree on something!
and thanks for pointing out the location of Yougov’s August Scottish poll.
98 I think they mean well prepared where they have a chance however faintest. However that still excludes about 500 seats..
100 - sorry, but that falls into the same realm as those nutters who posted on here that blair would never quit no10 without calling a general election first, just to make sure brown didn’t become PM.
Nice to see the Tory trolls out earlier in the day than usual. The amount of rot talked about Lib Dem prospects by those who know nothing about the party (and precious little about politics in general by some of the guff posted - anti Labour pacts, left of Labour etc).
FWIW Sean Fear is for once wrong about a November election - the momentum for it is now practically unstoppable - the three week campaign benefits incumbents (of which Labour have most) and neutralisies Tory spending power. For example it is rumoured that the Tories have £300,000 to spend this year in Richmond Park - there is no way they can spend that sort of cash before November (even if it was legal). That benefits Susan Kramer.
Having a Tory candidate who is a nutter benefits her too…
104 Susan Kramer looks a few gunmen short of a posse as well in fairness
104 - I can’t stand the Lib Dems but if I lived in that seat I’d be first in the queue to vote for Kramer. Keep out Goldsmith.
Is Rik a candidate anywhere?
Brown is damned if he does and damned if he doesn’t.
Call the election off and the Tories can claim a victory and present the decision like this: “Oh look, you spent all this time doing a ‘will he, won’t he’ narrative, and now that we’ve narrowed the gap you’re not going to call it because you’re scared you wont win, and scared we’re a government in waiting. This goes to show how NuLab is all about power and little about respecting the people bla bla bla”.
Make no mistake, that would be a big blow, much bigger than I think many on here claim. It’s not so much that an election’s been called off, it’s that for weeks there’s been buildup in the media and from government figures that there could be one, only seemingly called off because of a ‘good’ Tory conference. It makes Brown look weaker and less of a confident leader. The papers could run with it as well - The Sun in particular could do a lot of damage for ‘cowardly Brown’, in conjunction with the EU Referendum.
But if Brown goes to the country now I cannot see Labour being returned with anything over a majority of about 40 or so. The best I can see is Labour retaining their majority of around 60 but it would (I think) need a good campaign and a Tory disaster, and I can’t see that. Cameron is a photogenic campaigner and he’ll come across well, I would imagine adding several points onto the Tory poll figures. And then there’s the fact that polls tend to overstate Labour.
Make no mistake, if an election were held in November I’ve no doubt that Labour would still be the largest party, but I think it’s becoming increasingly likely their majority would be shredded. I doubt there’s any realistic chance of Brown losing the Prime Minister-ship, but he would lose a lot of authority and risks then being seen as a lame duck until being chucked out at the next election (loss of a majority or not, I cannot see him being forced out by his own party for at least a year after the election).
103 - I wasn’t one of those nutters….
Why don’t you try an argument to persuade me I’m wrong? Blanket assertions don’t get much respect round here.
Conservatives don’t appear to have a candidate in Ealing Southall.
The BBC are reporting fresh signs that Brown WILL call an Election.
I will be absolutely gobsmacked, and not a little scared. I’d have to admire Brown’s courage though, I really would.
I thought the momentum was now against an election. Labour is not prepared in crucial areas, their marginal MP’s are coming out, more against than for, their activists on the ground are not at all keen and here don’t see the point of it, the present majority is likely to go down or even be lost, and the media is less gung ho than a few days ago. It is now realised that what they thought was brought forward in the last few days had in fact been planned for weeks, if not months.
The momentum appears to have gone already.
Get ready for the Fixed Term Election announcement on Tuesday
111 The fresh signs being what
112 Derek Wyatt was all but pleading against it yesterday I thought
111 None that I can see.
Calling an election now would be irrational, from Brown’s point of view. Not that people are always rational.
113. You tell me! No, seriously they’re about to say on ‘the Six’ as it’s known to BBC insiders (i.e. The Six O Clock News).
112-Fixed term parliaments? There are obviosuly major issues to discuss round this topic. Surely a major constitutional change like this can’t be bulldozed through? On the other hand it IS Labour…
111 The BBC dont seem to be saying anything now that they haven’t been saying all day. It is clear that some of the Brown team remain firmly wedded to the idea of a November election despite the polls of the past 24hrs, but it also clear that this is not a view that is shared by all senior labour politicians. As always it is the PM’s call in the end and it is does appear that GB has not made up his mind.
I have to agree with those saying fixed terms would be beneficial this sort of carry on is great fun for us political anoraks and the meeja ( and potentially profitable ) but it really is not good for politics in general.
BBC tittle tattle as far as I can see - entirely based on Brown’s busy schedule and bringing things forward to Monday/Tuesday. All looks like yesterday’s pre-poll news to me.
The silly part of me would love an election because they’re fun. The Labour side of me is scared witless after those new polls. He’d be mad …
… unless of course they are already getting better private polling. Afterall Labour are convinced that the Tory rise was NOTHING to do with Cameron but all to do with IHT.
Now look. I’m absolutely fed up with Tory posters giving me all sorts of reasons why I shouldn’t go for an election. Bring it on? You’re all obviously terrified of the prospect. I’m also pi***d off with all the Labour posters saying I’ve got to for it. It’s my bloody neck on the line.
So f**k off the lot of you and leave me to agonise on my own. I’ve got no finger nails left as it is.
117. The ability to call an election at a time of his or her choosing (subject to HM’s blessing) is one of the best cards in the prime ministerial deck. I can’t think why any ruling party would want to get rid of it and am quite sure that Brown - who has shown the odd tendency to like to control what’s happening as much as possible - wouldn’t give that ability up on a whim.
Ooh, the excitement of it all. Have to wonder what’ll happen when the Tory post-conf bounce dribbles away a bit, maybe to +5 Labour lead. Might be enough for them….
Where is Jack’s ARSE when you need it?
122. Yes we musn’t forget that there is a real likelihood surely of the polls reverting to roughly 5% Labour lead in the next week. Then what?
I suppose Nov 8th isn’t impossible either …
Labour put out their first leaflet in my ward (Alexandra Ward) in Hornsey & Wood Green since the 2006 locals yesterday. They have done very little since they lost to Featherstone. The anti war bunch may drift back to them. I can only think that the 2 page colour glossy introducing their candidate was meant to be a opener in the GE campaign…. Last GE I made cash betting on Featherstone but this time I would not risk it. She may have nursed the seat well but labour have a hard vote - and a hard left candidate that may well suit taste of the middle class lefties that inhabit wetsern Haringey.
109 - because the cost of running campaigns in no chance seats is minimal, because after about 2 days you tell everyone in those no chance seats to transfer to the nearest marginal, therefore motivating your activist base, because you would spend the first few days of the campaign having a massive internal row and face billions of questions day after day about why you’ve chosen not to put up candidates, why you’re not governing for the whole country etc.
i mean do you really need someone to spell out for you why your suggestion is absolutely crackers and would never happen in a million years?
119. It doesn’t matter what the reason was; what matters is that it happened.
The crucial point is that at the margins, there are a lot of floating voters, probably far more than going into the elections in 1997, 2001 or 2005 - which is why the polls have been all over the place in the last month. That being the case, the result in November, if Gordon goes for it, will be influenced to an unusual degree by what happens between now and then. That’s not something Brown can control (influence certainly, but not control).
Who knows what might happen. If it was the IHT proposals, what other policies might catch the public eye? What might go down like a PM in Iraq? Until we get there, we won’t know - and neither will he. That’s why it would be such a massive call for a relatively small return, unless Brown can increase his majority - which will be very difficult for a lot of reasons.
Wouldn’t it be amusing if his private polling happened to turn up with a rogue poll this weekend …
Imagine if the real figures were 35/41/16 and the poll said 39/36/22, say. No election, even though it’s deep into majority strengthening territory.
Or if the real figures were 39/36/21 by then and the poll said 34/41/17. Election straight on, with it well into hung Parliament territory.
Or am I just mean in finding these ideas funny?
who cares about the Tories IHT plans - you’re all forgetting there is a Pre Budget Report on Tuesday, where Labour can actually announce real taxs that are going to happen, not made up ones that depend on spurious estimates of green taxes and taxing non-existant non-doms?
11 I find it surprising that you are hearing that from the BBC, Their News website, not exactly Cameron friendly has relegated the election story to a side link
Gordo might still call an election, it depends on what the weekend poll(s) (the only one I know for certain is in the News of the World. I still think McCavity is an apt description, therefore I err on the side of no election.
re 108 I doubt we’ll get a better summary than that today, thanks Matt. I don’t think it would necessarily need a disasterous Tory campaign to produce Lab maj of 60.
re 108 I doubt we’ll get a better summary than that today, thanks Matt. I don’t think it would necessarily need a disasterous Tory campaign to produce Lab maj of 60.
a majority of 60 in a 4th term government that would serve for 5 years and go to the country after 2012 olympics - i reckon gordon brown would take that.
126. Oh it does matter. It could make all the difference to him going for it now.
If it’s Cameron Brown won’t risk it for now.
If it’s IHT that’s very different because on Tuesday Labour could come up with similar or other eye-catching proposals to trump the Tories, or at least win back some of the floaters.
I always feel the voters are flirting with Cameron, they like his wooing, their tempted, they move towards him, then, there’s something that starts to worry them, they move away again. They’d like to go the whole hog, but just can’t bring themselves to go there. So its back to boring but reliable Gordon.
Will they finally submit…..? interesting isn’t it!!
128. just seen yours. Precisely.
The only reason I can see them still entertaining this is if they know from polling that it’s all because of IHT, and that seems very plausible (anecdotally a lot of people seem to have found Cameron’s speech a turn-off).
So if that’s true then they do actually hold the cards if they can come up with similarly eye-catching proposal(s) back. The Tories won’t have another bite at that cherry.
Trouble is, Labour can hardly go after IHT can they …?!
133-After years saying how IHT is fair, and any tinkering with it unaffordable?
From saying IHT reform is unaffordable to going ahead and doing just that it in the space of a week. Will the voters buy such crass opportunism? Normally I would have said yes, but years of TB’s spin politics and GB’s amazingly ill-advised trip to Iraq now indicate just maybe not any more.
135-My guess more tinkering with tax credits?
Or perhaps a tax cut to 20%. Which will turn out to be:
a) already announced
b) a tax hike for those between the exisitng 10 and 20% brackets
Macavity, Macavity…
136. No they’d surely have to come up with some other tax proposals - or something eye catching.
As I mentioned yesterday, I’ve a Tory accountant acquaintance who thinks the Tory proposals on IHT are madness! But the electorate seem smitten by it, despite only 1 in 20 allegedly benefitting (a slightly misleading figure actually if truth be told!).
On taxes, I wonder if, Mr Darling might announce, that the 10p starting rate is to remain, when income tax is reduced. Think that would be popular, its what I would do.
Can someone who knows about these things answer this question: how can the government change taxes without a Finance Act? Surely all it can do is announce intentions, much the same as the opposition?
122 Andrew. See my ARSE @ 142 on the previous thread and the caveat I gave @ 28 on this thread.
138. I expect it’s those who believe they could be soon at the threshold which must take in many people in London and the like who fancy the policy even if it won’t yet affect them.
139. Would cost billions and looking at economic growth forecasts, we could be looking at further tax rises not cuts. Maybe on Non Doms!!!
139 Where exactly is the money going to come from for tax cuts. The Labour party have been going apoplectic in recent days by a £3bn redistribution, if they suddenly offer tax cuts combined with Gordon’s airy ludicrous promises at conference, Iraq troop withdrawl spin, and hospital opening twice stunt do you not think that reliable old Gordon (already looking like gutless and dithering Gordon) will become completely untrustworthy Gordon. Still good luck with tax cuts it opens the field to the tories offering tax cuts and people will actually believe them.
David
You’re right but announcing proposals in the House of Commons gives them a much more credible and substantial feel to tv viewers than announcing them at some Party press conference.
That’s why Smith announced the 1992 Shadow Budget in as formal a setting as he could find. He was trying to add gravitas and weightiness to the announcements which wouldn’t have been there on a standard Party Press Conference set.
The moment the gun goes off that advantage disappears, of course.
124 Doubt it, Incumbent bonus + yet further squeeze on Tory vote + hard worker in Featherstone herself. IF Labour nail Lib Dems I’ll be surprised if she is among them
143. Let’s try and keep the spin a little out of it. Be honest - the dithering Gordon stuff is, for the moment, just Tory mischief making which the Tories are evidently not above.
Brown’s only mistake in all of this was managing to unite the Tory party. You should be very grateful to him. No-one inside the Tory party could manage what he’s done lol!
142-Maybe people think it’s the RIGHT thing to do?
Unbeknownst to the chattering classes and “commentariat” (WTF gave them that name?), most people don’t like paying taxes, and taxes on death seem the most iniquitous of all.
Re fixed term Parliaments.
I’d like to see a minimum term of 4 years, with the Government being allowed to call the election anytime in the 5th year- to generate ‘election fever’.
This ‘Will He?’ ‘Won’t He?’ business for 2007. 2008 and 2009/10 will bore people stupid if he postpones next week.
146-GB’s mistake was in letting talk of a snap election get out of control. Once he firmly quashed expectations of a snap poll in early summer (he had no problems doing so then…), there was no expectation of a poll till his lot got carried away. AND he didn’t rein the Young Turks in.
128
‘who cares about the Tories IHT plans - you’re all forgetting there is a Pre Budget Report on Tuesday, where Labour can actually announce real taxs that are going to happen, not made up ones that depend on spurious estimates of green taxes and taxing non-existant non-doms?’
Three problems with Labour ‘real’ tax plans:
-we’ve heard them before,several times.
-After Gordo’s recent stunts does anyone still believe him?
-Everyone knows with Labour taxes only go one way.
I wonder if the drop in the 2007 election Betfair price is due to market manipulation. Could this be someone with deep pockets hoping to persuade Brown to go for it? I wonder if Brown is a fan of the “betting markets as opinion poll” theory.
I hope he doesn’t go for it as I’ve laid my entire bank against 2007…
Apologies but I’m beginning to lose the will to live with all this election” will he won’t he?” - you couldn’t make it up…or could you? Have we been prepared for this by an informant from Scotland who knows the PM well?
In 1994 Lord Voldegord was prevented from gaining a foothold in power by the actions of Professor Dumbleblair assisted by his fellow members of the Order of St Cherie. Young Harry Cameron was instrumental in this but his actions placed him in danger so was he hidden away from the political world among the Muggles of the Media. In 2001 it was thought safe for him to return to Hogwestminster as Dumbleblair was in control.
Voldegord however hadn’t gone but preferring not to be seen acted through his coterie of Death Eaters, undermining Dumbleblair from within. In 2006 Dumbleblair was wounded badly in an attempt by Voldemort to gain control but he had already given Harry Cameron vital information.
In 2007 Voldemort gains ascendancy, and his Death Eaters spread fear throughout the land, wreaking havoc as unexplained floods, fires, plagues and tornadoes occur. Harry Cameron, previously a hero, is made the target of press ridicule and his popularity suffers. Howeve