And now we have the Davids…..
October 6th, 2007-
YouGov reports a Tory lead of 3%
In a most staggering turnaround the internet pollster which restricts its surveys to members of its polling panel, YouGov has these shares in its latest poll. CON 41% (+5): LAB 38% (-2): LD 11% (-2). The comparisons are with the last YouGov poll where the fieldwork finished only two days ago.
Only a week ago the pollster had the Tories 11% behind with C32-L43-LD15. The changes for each party are just amazing.
Mike Smithson
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I thought that the Conservative share was 41% if it is 42% there should be 4 Davids!!
4 Garages!
I was sure there was one of these with 11 (eleven) Gordons on it the other day. Must lay off the shrooms….
(from previous thread - slightly modified)
297. Why?
The main reason for the Lib Dem drop is due to the emergence of a strong and credible alternative challenger (who can win) David Cameron, and the replacement of Tony Blair by Gordon Brown, which has neutered the Lib Dems Iraq advantage. PLUS the SNP pushing the Lib Dems out in Scotland. Remember, the Lib Dems weren’t polling ‘particularly’ well between 1997-2001 and now that the Conservatives look credible….. well, we have 2-party politics again.
Sure, Ming hasn’t helped. Prob added 2/3% to the drop. But I doubt Huhne/Clegg replacing him will help very much, although they might improve a little bit they’ll look even less serious and irrelevant for doing it. And suffer internally in the process.
The Lib Dems are going to have to accept that they’ve peaked. Until they adopt a consistent policy position that defines what the believe and gives them a strong, core vote - preferably concentrated regionally - they’ll only ever poll well when voters hate the government AND the opposition.
That might not happen again for another 10 years.
Chris Martin from Coldplay has expressed his thanks to the great leader for selecting one of their songs to be the theme music for Labour’s next election campaign
He said ” We always thought Yellow was a great song. Now its in context, its even better”
3
:lol: 
Surely we have to start asking serious questions about these polls! The vast majority of people simply don’t care enough to change their opinions that quickly!
Guardian saying crisis for Brown.
http://politics.guardian.co.uk/labour/story/0,,2185427,00.html
You know its grim when your best friends are kicking you. Maybe Gordon will be seeking advice from Sir John next.
2 4 Garages!
Fat Prescott haf 2 Jags. Do you think Bogie Brown hasn’t 4 garages?
This poll is a bit strange. Apparently there was a question on Iraq and people were strongly critical. I think it’s fair to say that had that question been asked first (not appropriate i know), then it could have been LibDem +5 Lab -5
The Yougov figures do not correlate with the ICM Marginals figures . They show approx Con + 5.5% Lab - 1.5% and would translate to a national poll as something like Con 38 Lab 34.5% LibDem 17/18% . Will be interesting to see the national figures in the ICM/ST poll tomorrow .
kiwi haka fronted by the french……that rasputin like soap dodger looks a bit aggressive!
I think the last few weeks say more about the volatility of polling than it does about actual voting intentions.
I think polls have as little credibility at the moment as they had in 1992. There is just too much movement to be believed.
7. If so many people don’t care, surely that makes it all the more likely that they will change their minds easily. It’s those who feel they have invested something in or have an attachment to a party who’ll back the same side each time (or at least agonise before switching).
11 “The Yougov figures do not correlate with the ICM Marginals figures” - they wouldn’t be expected to. By choosing Conservative / Labour marginals, they will be polling where those two parties are working hardest. They will also miss the seats where the LibDems hold, or are second. Thus don’t read anything too serious into the national trend including the LibDems from the ICM marginals poll.
These Polls are certianly more irratic than I have seen for a long time!
JHust a random aside. My girlfriend is a regular on a forum that is full of 20 and 30 something women. There are lots of people on it who have more than 10,000 posts.
I asked her what threads there had been on the calling off of the election. She looked at me blankly and said “none”.
Still the yougov poll is pretty big swing around. Seems, mostly driven by a fairly inexpicable drop in LD support- Labour are on 38%- so it’s hardly a collapse in our support!
Any more polls expected tonight?
Who ever on the last thread said that Brown can now look forward to 6 quiet months.
Not likely. he will be hounded over the EU Constitution treaty and will have to make decisions on such unpopular issues as ID cards.
He is also facing an extremely bleak economic outlook which he has brought entirely upon himself.
I suspect that this was indeed his high water mark and it is all down into the depths from now on.
I would suspect weakness for the lib dems in con lib dem marginals - a lot of lib dems will vote con in a desire to get labour out - time for a change will work for the cons - the tactical unwind is significant - what is the point in voting lib dem when tory policies are ok - green and centre and when you want to get nu lab out - in these circumstance the liberals are pointless and they will be squeezed
may be different in two years time but this is how it looks now
Mike/Paul - Presumably, it is now possible to announce the winner of the recent competition as to when Brown would lose his poll lead.
Lovely moment on the ITN news around 5pm today when the highly pulchritudinous and amply bosomed Daisy McAndrew reported that the Prime Minister was at that moment speaking to, quote, “his pet broadcaster”, unquote, who of course turned out to be the oh so neutral Andrew Marr!
Why does the BBC insist on introducing a story by stating that “the BBC understands that” or “the BBC has learned that” - it understands or has learned because it has been bloody told!
15 You would expect the same correlation in the national picture to the marginals that there was in the national %’s at the last GE to the %’s in these marginals at that time .
OT, but Flash Gordon is on ITV4 atm.
I can’t help but smile every time they say ‘Hail Ming’….
22/15. Mind you it is a bit odd that apparently the Tories are further ahead in the marginals than in the country! As I said on the last thread, surely it should be tighter, they are blimmin marginals after all!
that’s Flash Gordon the movie, obviously, not Flash Gordon Brown (who is of course Dour Gordon, not Flash Gordon)
17. That’s why Anne Coulter is right.
Women shouldn’t have been given the vote. They don’t understand the issues, or they don’t care, and they are also extremely volatile, switching sides at the least provocation. This makes it very hard for insecure and cowardly Labour prime ministers to be sure they will win grotesquely opportunist elections.
23 - the bit thats going to cause me to laugh is when Brian Blessed says “Gordon’s alive!”
22 - not necessarily. It is generally acknowledged that a large factor in the movements in the polls since Brown became leader is the energising of the base and an increase in people saying that they are going to vote. These people will be broadly located outside of the marginals, since marginals had reasonable turnout at the last election and better relative Labour performance (due to Blair’s warnings about wasting votes on the LibDems). On this basis it makes perfect sense that Labour should be doing relatively worse in a marginals poll.
27: lol
17 How long will Brown keep the 38% level? The press is going to be damning tomorrow morning; just the wrong day as it’s the Sundays and they can go to town. NoW will play it for all it can, Sunday Times, Observer, Telegraph, Sunday Mail, Sunday Express. The People will try a different angle perhaps calling for Brown to change his team or ignore it altogether.
No, Gordon’s in it just as Mr Parris said he would be.
Fantastic, the news just gets better and better!
24 - There are more non marginal Labour seats than non marginal Tory ones. Therefore it is perfectly possible that the Tories would be doing better in the marginals.
after today its “flush gordon”
31 - Why what has happened?
26. Are you the real seanT?
4. I agree with you about the Lib’s problem. They are being squeezed. Unfortunatly for them replacing Ming will make very little differance to their electoral fortunes.
30. The last thing Brown can afford now is a hideous year-long struggle over the EU Constitution, with the tabloids calling him a lying traitor, as well as a coward.
He needs to buy time to recover.
What can he do? He can either call a referendum, or veto the Treaty. I simply don’t see how he can force through the Constitution without a referendum.
For that you need political capital to spend. He has none.
32 Are there?
I was under the impression (possibly false) that there were a great many more Labour marginals than Tory ones. Again I suppose it comes down to a question definition
37 - If he does that he knows he will lose and will have a defecit in political capital. It will match the courage defecit, the poll defecit and the national defecit.
35. Yes, it’s me. Why shouldn’t it be? That post was offensive, inflammatory, arguably misogynist and blatantly partisan.
Of COURSE it’s me.
26. Sean.. be careful when you agree with Ann Coulter- If Women had been deprived of the vote Labour wound have won virtually every post-war general election!
Wonder what Murdoch will be making of all this. Saturday evening makes it old news for the Sun but Murdoch may be getting twitchy.
Ann Coulter is an idiot (as we all know), of course women should have the vote. If woman hadn’t got the vote, there would have been a continous labour government since 1945
40. Haha. It just didn’t read right for some reason and didn’t have the link to your blog.
Post 37 is more like it. 
Re 34, James, “31 - Why what has happened?”
The Yougov poll showing a national Conservative lead?
41, 43. I’m sure the enough of the men voting for Labour every time would have seen the error of their ways eventually if they had had to live with the consequences.
The polls seem to be like Alliance and Lesta shares
45. Benedicy- we were at least 30 posts in,c cna;t believe you were still commenting on the original topic, you slowcoach!
45. Benedicy- we were at least 30 posts in,. so clearly no-one could believe you were still commenting on the original topic, you slowcoach!
38 - non-marginals not marginals
39. So I think he has to veto. Or find some other devious solution. He simply can’t force the Treaty through against the combined Dacre and Murdoch press, who now scent his blood.
43. Just to be sure, I WAS joking. I think women having the vote is an excellent idea, on the whole. I also like Ann Coulter. She’s a pistol.
48 ooops DP, apols. One should always apologigise for accidental DP, in my experience.
Re 47 and 49, Brit spin, some echo, and great spooling BTW
51 “I also like Ann COulter, she’s a Transexual”.
Fixed your post for you there, Sean.
I would expect damning polls for Labour for a month. Beyond that who knows.
LDs at 11%? Ed Balls! Yg is a joke.
Does anyone seriously think that the Tories are ahead in the country as a whole?
I don’t but they likely soon well be if they can keep a steady ship.
45 - I thought something else had happened as well to make this even better.
Only a week ago the pollster had the Tories 11% behind with C32-L43-LD15. The changes for each party are just amazing.
Extraordinary even, Mike?
Re 58, James, Sorry, not yet
Now Brown has lost his poll lead, maybe it is time to launch the next competition, i.e. when/if he regains it?
47 “The polls seem to be like Alliance and Lesta shares”
Gordon’s stock is more like Northern Rock. It is going to require a vast amount of underpinning by the Bank of England…
54. lol
from last thread about tipping points. Had a think and realise this isn’t a tipping point, there simply isn’t enough resonance in the public about whats been happening behind the scenes. voters simply won’t know how close this was.
what it does signify is a change in the media. no longer will brown be able to say he is “strong”, no longer will he be able to talk about the “new politics” without risking derision from the press. this will filter through and limits Browns hand. He is still PM though and as such still has a few cards up his sleevies! At this point I think that over next few years as the fight gets tighter we should expect some really dirty, personal attacks by all sides…it’s not going to get pretty.
62 lol
oh yeah and does anyone else think the british public have memories like goldfish. Its as if the last person they saw on TV is who they will vote for. these polls are ridiculously up and down
62 - If they can, remember Gord sold the Gold.
It seems the little boy has well-and-truly pointed at the Emperor and shouted, “But he’s naked!”
65 - Yes they are up for Dave, down for Gordon and down the pan for Ming.
I guess Jack will have to get cracking on Plan B…
‘But, he says, he would favour a move towards the “alternative vote” system (AV) where people mark a list of candidates in order of preference. This ensures that each constituency MP eventually gets the support of a majority of voters.
His undisguised support for AV gives at least a hint of the direction of travel of the Brown government. “I happen to think that first past the post or AV, which is a variant of it, is fairer. The alternative vote has many attractions, including the fact that you have to get 50 per cent plus one in that constituency, therefore you have a greater legitimacy.”‘
http://www.newstatesman.com/200709200012
therefore you have a greater legitimacy…
therefore you have a greater legitimacy…
therefore you have a greater legitimacy…
Sounds plausible to me
Just wondering how long the “Macavity” effect from Gordon will be this time. After his private interview with Andrew Marr I would not know expect to see him in public until he is forced to appear in Parliament.
The rugby is boring. France folding without a real fight.
England will face the Blacks. Oo-er.
This autumn would be an interesting time for a Westminster by-election.
TBH I am beginning to take these polls with a pinch of salt or are the Public atm that fickle?
Coffee House reports that it’s all Douglas Alexander’s fault as he knew the state of the register a month ago. Please!
It wasn’t the state of the registers, it was that Labour would/could lose 50 seats. Already the spin to save Gordon’s face begins. If the polls had come back with a Labour lead in marginals we’d have been off on Tuesday evening on a three week campaign.
Full poll numbers for the marginals (hat tip Spec Coffee House)
http://notw.typepad.com/saturday_notw/files/notw_poll.pdf
74 - Indeed we would. Labour must be absolutely kicking themselves now. They have exchanged a leader to whom the shit would never stick no matter what, for one whose first significant act has been to dive head first into a great big pile of it.
Does Ming take the blame for Lib Dem doldrums?
No. I posted months ago that the country was returning to a stronger two party view and it is.
The Lib Dems had an extraordinary 2005. That was never going to repeat in any known situation in the near future.
Sorry Sean, but I think if Gordon bottles on the EU treaty now, that really will be cowardice.
As for the Observer, since their leader was busy telling Brown last week it would be infamous if he had an autumn election, I imagine they’ll be fairly restrained (as the article linked to above is).
The columnists, of course, will have a field day. But it’s the medium term media game that’s more interesting (once you’ve all gotten over your gloatathon).
According to Anthony Wells YOUGOV puts the Tories on 42% - a 4 % lead. Is this correct?
So it was all Alexander Balls?
58 in fptp, the marginals matter.
I want it noted by Mark S, Tressage etc that I am rubbishing this poll Tory lead notwithstanding. No way are the LibDem figures credible.
Sorry but looking at the figures on Page 5, it has the following breakdowns
Tory 261 = 43%
Lab 256 = 42%
LD 55 = 9%
These are figures of voting in 2005. I’m puzzled should have Labour have polled more?
How long can Ming stay?
BPIX survey has Con 39% (+5) Lab 38% (-3) LD 12% (NC)
On the Lib Dem question- people seem convinced that either Nick Clegg or Chris Huhne would lift the party’s standing above where Ming has it. Not at all convinced by that in either case. Nick Clegg always underwhelms (as Mike Smithson has often pointed out), and Huhne is not exactly a cauldron of charisma either.
Haven’t seen/heard enough of the Lib Dem women to judge their relative abilities- a woman might risk the sizeable Lib Dem pink vote, but if she was persuasive…
Ted
For heaven’s sake read the Guardian website. Gordon was never persuaded of the case for an early GE, even privately. The Iraq trip, the NHS report brought forward, the Autumn Statement brought forward; these are things that should be and were dealt with by others.
It seems to me that GB is now weakened inside the PLP. The Left are, of course, diminished but there’s the soft left displeased with his flirting with Thatcher, wrapping himself in the flag, the home office illiberalism and the british jobs for british workers stuff.
Then there are the Blairites; a few more of them now, I dare say.
Then there are a whole lot of other MPs who never liked his kitchen cabinet of young whippersnappers and are furious that a strong position has been pissed away.
I notice by the way that there’s been talk of three young turks responsible for the fiasco. Ed Balls, Douglas Alexander and Ed Miliband. One name not on that list; David Miliband!
Wrong figures Jake - those are unweighted voting intention now. You want weighted 2005 vote, which is CON 214, LAB 234, LDEM 81.
Remember they shouldn’t match the actual votes because ICM will have adjusted for false recall
86 - Guardian says Ed Miliband was always sceptical.
78. Yeah, of course it would be “cowardice” if he changed tack on the EU. It would also be extreme good sense.
The fact is the EU Constitution is a mammoth fight that GB, right now, cannot afford. He has zero credibility, and few allies in the press. He needs to curry favour with the tabloids, and quick. Or he is in for a very torrid time.
What he does not need to do is arrogantly shove through an unwanted Constitution in apparent betrayal of a manifesto promise, at a time when he is being accused of lying and arrogance.
I know this is of little interest to non-Europe obsessives, but it delights me.
I am sure Brown is also working the numbers. He knows he is weak and wounded. In that situation I doubt if he cares what Barosso thinks. He cares what Dacre and Murdoch think.
He will fold.
British jobs for British workers - the BNP would approve
From a betting perspective do todays events make it more likely Boris will win the mayoral election ? i have not really though this through but before the odds moved my gut instinct was to back Boris hard so that is what i have done - am i right in the read across ?
Thanks Anthony…. False recall how do allow for that LOL?
Can humans get foot and mouth? Having witnessed his puffed-up arrogance on the box this last few weeks, it’s just that I’m worried about Ed Balls
What sort of tough are you when you need to be guaranteed to have a friendly interview. Oooh, er, I insist that I am interviewed by a BBC political correspondent who is married to a Labour MP (no problem there from that left-leaning organisation).
I reckon Gordon Brown is the biggest dolt we’ve had as PM since Ted Heath.
89 - If he does fold and have a referendum it will be a disaster for him. First he will take a hit simply for the U-turn, then he will lose the referendum probably by something like 70-30. This will diminish him even further. Then again if he digs his heels in and tries to ram it through then he will be kicked to death over the fact that it was in his manifesto and he refused to even look for his own mandate. By getting into a lose-lose situation on the election it has opened up another lose-lose situation on the referendum.
88 And then there two! Not many generals around after a defeat. Everyone was sceptical but the plan rolled out day after day…..
89. What happens when he inevitably lose’s a referendum though? The Tories will campaign for a no vote. He will campaign for a yes. He will lose and then what? Another PR victory for the Conservatives and the PM on the losing side.
91 - Stick around and you’ll see numerous discussions about how polls are weighted to get more accurate figures. Not sure where but I’m sure Anthony’s site has articles about it.
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/index.php
@89 Sean T
Sounds good to me
Let’s hope you’re right.
As far as the question of Lib Dem leadership is concerned, it’s really time the Lib Dems got out of the Celtic Ghetto and got a leader from the South. Look out for moves of the ‘Mingites’ to put forward Ed Davey.
85. A woman would risk the pink vote? I’m not sure I follow the logic. Are you suggesting that Ming Campbell is a gay pin-up? I would have thought that if anything a female leader would be more likely to appeal to gays.
Sky News is scathing against Brown. Nasty stuff!
92 - Jackie Ashley is a journalist not an MP. Her father was an MP the hugely impressive Jack Ashley.
“the gays” comments like that just reinforce why I will never vote TORY!
France are fighting back! It’s like 1999 all over again!
On the main topic, I’ve heard it said that the British electorate is now like a cushion; it bears the imprint of the last person who sat on them …!
could france win it - what a day for turnovers that would be
98 - Ed Davey would be risky because although his majority is 9000 there was a way above average 7% swing to the Conservatives in 2005.
Any guesses as the first question DC is going to Ask Gordo next Wednesday. Answers on the back of a fiver to the usual address.
France are now 13-6 down so not out of it yet… NZ down to 14 men (yellow card)
93. Yes, I agree. I think he therefore needs to find a different solution.
Maybe he can somehow veto the Treaty. Though that seems tricky. Or he might call a referendum without fighting for a Yes - i.e. disown it - “let the people decide”.
He needs to find an answer, and quick. The press are on his case.
Allez les Bleus!!
86 Poor Gordon, all those things going on behind his back
92 No Balls has caught bluetongue (which according to report last week is spread by midgets, not sure if they mean intellectual midgets or short people?)
107 - Bit out of date there Maggie T Fan.
13-13
If NZ win they have had the hard game they needed. They will, in that case, beat England.
now its 13-13 all
WOT NO ELECTION?
—————-
As indicated by Ave it postings on this site, lab support has collapsed and gordon has called off the election.
This is the greatest climb down by a prime minister since ‘Peace in our time’ in 1938.
Gordon will now hang on until 2009/2010 following which the Camo will assume power with an overall majority.
Lab is now a lame duck government and there will be no change to policy, legislation etc until the 2009/2010 election.
108 - He could call a referendum and commit the government to a trappist silence on the issue. How he would avoid getting slaughtered by everyone I don’t know. I think if he is this master strategist and on today’s evidence the citizens jury is still out, then he needs to work out a very good strategy to avoid certain issues feeding off this. I am not so sure he can do it, especially as he has really pissed off a swathe of the media on this.
Anyone seen this?
http://cwoblog.blogspot.com/2007/10/adam-boulton-is-not-happy-chappy.html
Ouch!
107 “have a good week son?”
Im watching the text not live pictures , that’s why I was behind !!! Gordo will be watching live pictures from outside no 10. The media has turned against Gordo, and once you’ve lost the media , its game over methinks. Happy days!
106. No, look back. His tiny majority in 1997 shot in to the stratosphere in 2001; it’s now settled to a level he should be able to keep it at. Anyway, if elected leader, he would be fine. Don’t forget he is Ming’s chief of staff, so the powers behind the throne would be OK and stay in place, against the prospect of being pushed to one side if Huhne or Clegg get it.
102. Whose comment are you responding to? Nobody said “the gays”.
You may disagree but Ed Davey will struggle to retain his seat and that just indicates what problens the lib dems have when up against a resurgent - time for a change momentum
115 brutal. thats worth 2% on the polls
I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again. YouGov polls are rubbish. You may as well ask the dog. The Conservatives are definitely resurgent, but we shouldn’t put faith in this as evidence for that.
120 - Come off it. If Ed Davey isn’t a plausible candidate because his majority isn’t large enough, that doesn’t leave many options.
Any Labour posters here care to eat their words over the scale of the negative reaction to this that was predicted by many and dismissed by them?
Wot no Tories saying YouGov is a biased Labour leaning org and muttering about peter Kellner - oops that was last weekend’s theme!
What a lot of posts there has been! Struggling to keep up and no idea how Mike copes what with new articles and what not.
Am personally pleased about not having an election. People outside politics were unenthused about the idea. Labour voters tend to have jobs plus small children to feed, bath and put to bed, and they struggle to get to the polls in the spring. It would have been really difficult to get them out in the cold and dark.
As for Tories in the previous thread saying this was “Black Wednesday” - don’t be so silly. Deciding not to call an election in the winter, two and a half years earlier than you need to, doesn’t even rank alongside really big events like going to war in Iraq, let alone Black Wednesday, which came in the middle of a severe recession where 55,000 businesses went bust, loads of people lost their jobs, some their homes, the remaining in negative equity.
If the public thinks about this at all, they’ll be pleased they won’t have to endure an election in the run up to christmas.
111. Not so sure. I know you want England to lose, as a loyal Ulsterman
but you never know. Sure we will be underdogs, but we beat the Aussies against the odds. And the All Blacks aren’t invincible - the Boks and the Wallabies have beaten them lately.
And Dan Carter may be injured.
121 - Adam Boulton can really go off on one when he gets annoyed by the Govt’s treatment of the press. I remember an occasion when we went to war in (I think) Serbia, or possibly Afghanistan, when British forces were being deployed but Downing Street was refusing to make any statements or give confirmation of what was going on. They were claiming “operational reasons” but meanwhile the Americans were briefing all and sundry about what was going on. Boulton was hopping mad!
We are not in time for a change territory. The polls will settle down as will Gordon and he is an astute enough operator to ensure thst the Tories clothes are well and truly stolen before the next election. Oppositions don’t win elections, Governments lose them. My money will still be on Labour to win comfortably. They will learn the lessons of this debacle, while the peurile triumphalism of the Tories ensures that they won’t. I think you will now see real investment of time and money by Labour to increase the propensity of their supporters to vote. It’s the Lib Dems that now face the greatest problems; it’s going to be interesting to see how they react.
Re the EU GB now has a number of choices.
He can go to Lisbon and simply refuse to sign up because he has belatedly discovered that the red lines have, after all, not been adequately secured. The Poles are having a GE 2 days after the Summit so he might have an ally. Could he keep that up Summit after Summit, though? I suppose he could do a deal with Poland not to agree. On balance unlikely.
Alternatively he could stage a fight to get more concessions but I think those sort of theatrics won’t cut the mustard at home once he signs up.
On ratification he has to decide just how feasible it is to get it through a) the Commons b) the Lords. If he can and everyone else ratifies by June 2009 then I don’t think DC can realistically reopen. It’d be too late.
If he doesn’t think he can get it past Parliament or thinks the effort entails to much political damage then he could say he will not ratify until after the GE. His manifesto could either contain or not a manifesto commitment to a referendum. This would throw out the proposed timetable for agreeing everything before the EP elections in 2009. His answer would be one word long. Tough.
An x factor is what will happen in other countries. Ireland will have a referendum for sure. Denmark may, too. Doubts exist about what will happen in Poland after their GE and then there’s the Czech Republic. Offhand I can’t think of any other country that’s likely to have difficulties ratifying. We could back where we were last time with GB hoping the Treaty gets scuppered by someone else…
“Labour voters tend to have jobs plus small children to feed, bath and put to bed, and they struggle to get to the polls in the spring. It would have been really difficult to get them out in the cold and dark.”
It’s OK. The elections been called off. Stand down.
France with a kick to go 20-18!
125. An unusually weak and insipid post from Snowflake. Lacking her normal boring robotic pig-headed certainty.
I wonder why.
125 Those little people, so pleased not to have to vote, so good of Gordon to think of them, they will reward the Dear Leader I’m sure.
BTW Black Wednesday came towards the end of the recession and was in truth a large part of it’s cure.
120 What evidence can you sensibly put forward that Ed Davey will struggle to retain his seat ?
He didn’t suggest that Davey would have trouble he just said he suffered a 7% swing which was high by 05 standards.
134 - You might want to reread post 120.
Gordon Brown has ruled out an election in 2008 except in “exceptonal circumstances”. I think he was thinking ‘like if I have a lead at all’
The labour voters on here have been cleared out by A WORSE OUTCOME THAN 9 JUNE 1983!!!!
Labour will hang on until 2010 and not govern again for 50 years! a 20% Con win next time is a real possibility!
As I said the other day, con maj 300
France leading!
Knew NZ would bottle it! Does gordon know this feeling???
you have to remember that Kingston is natural Tory territory - what is the point of voting Lib dem when the objective is to get GB out - if you polled kingston now my guess is the Tories are ahead -
they almost won control of the council at the last elections and polled more votes than the lib dems - not bad when up against a party thats core strength is its local connections - so it is only the incumbent vote they are up against in a general election and if the momentum gets behind the time for change bandwagon then Ed Davey is out and Helen Whitely is in
France can still do it -
125. Snowflake, the election is called off, no need to talk about Black Wednesday. Plus Black Wednesday, was a European problem, not just the UK’s. And frankly, it’s been 15 YEARS since it happened, labour have to come up with a better arguments.
126. I thought England would win today but just didnt back them. It was the fact that they started slow and got better. I’ve taken the old football World Cup maxim to heart of watching the top sides that dont look great at first but do whats necessary.
More importantly I did back the French on this game. They are a bit of a bogey for NZ and at their best will lash anyone. They cant however necessarily string two good games together so England would beat them. Having said that 2 points lead to France, its NZ’s turn to score and I still think they can do it. I was expecting a total French whirlwind and it hasnt happened so I’m sweating.
Having said that its small beer theres a might big win and ew bets on a nag in the Arc tomorrow. I will be sweating properly then.
And yeah you are right I couldnt bring myself to support England….
134/135 I suggest you both read post 120 again Quote ” You may disagree but Ed Davey will struggle to retain his seat ” End Quote .
137 its never over till the fat lady sings…
131. SeanT - if you read my few posts over the last couple of weeks, you’ll have noted that I wasn’t keen on an early election, and kept highlighting instances in the polls that said the public didn’t want one (one poll if I recall rightly said 57% didn’t want an election).
It was a silly idea to have one in the autumn after the conferences, because of the wall-to-wall coverage each one gets, and because people don’t have time to digest them. Plus the Tory conference is last. The best time to have one is after a period of business as usual, and then during the campaign, each party gets equal time.
Remember that after last years Labour conference Blair’s speech gave us a boost which lasted all of a couple of weeks, and then everything went back to normal. Conference time is not normal.
119…. post 99 that will appeal to gays! at best ignorant at worse homophobic!
Mark
Why are you so confident Ming will step down at the beginning of next year?
138 Kingston such natural Tory territory that they have only polled an average of 1/3rd of the vote since 1997 .
144. Well I made the comment and I’m not a Tory but I am gay so what do you make of that?
LOLOLOLOLOL!!!!!!!!!!!!!
NZ = bottlers!!!!!
NZ = Gordon Brown!!!!!!!!!!!!
Gordon Brown has FINISHED Labour as a political force!
Hahahahahahahahahaha!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
France Win!!!
Incroyable!
We can beat France.
Re 143, Snowflake, I agree with all that you say, however the problem is that Labour, and team Brown have spun that there would be an election and now look silly.
OK, the public will forget, but Brown has damaged himself in the party and with the lobby.
Oh dear!
147 - lol
all over france win
england, france, ipswich town, gordo being himiliated, gordo blowing his chances………it doesnt get any better
147 that you could learn to be more careful about what you say! would you say blacks when refering to ethnic minorities?
France have done it
Having won three times today maybe you will belive my predictions for Ed Davey
148. Will you change your name to Ave it 08, 09 or 10? I need to know for my betting.
Re 147, MattJ, “Well I made the comment and I’m not a Tory but I am gay so what do you make of that?”
Well he probably won’t vote gay because your homophobic?
(Doesn’t make sense I know, but the professionally offended never seem to make sense
)
Jake - homophobic? Sara in earlier post suggests a woman leader might not appeal to the pink vote. MattJ picks her up on it, not sure why she thinks gay men are attracted by Ming - must agree he certainly does nothing for me. It’s not homophobic to use the word gay you know
139, I only mentioned Black Wednesday because so many people on the last thread (which I came to too late to respond on there) claimed that this was Labour’s Black Wednesday.
Plus lots of Tories on the previous thread kept saying “but why is it important to fund tax cuts, why can’t we just cut and hope for the best?”, which means that even though it was 15 years ago, you lot still haven’t learnt the economic lessons.
The only reason Britain went into the ERM was because inflation reached over 10% in 89/90. The reason that happened was because fiscal policy was too loose in the previous four years, taxes were cut without thought of consequences. By 1992, the budget deficit reached 7% of GDP, taxes had to go back up and John Major was desperately selling off any asset he could to temporarily raise money eg the utilities and the railways.
If you still don’t understand how important it is to carefully fund everything, it’s not safe for you to be in government.
150 - we are now favourites to win! (not official betting!)
157 - will change it to:
Ave it 08 on 01.01.2008
Ave it 09 on 01.01.2009
Ave it 10 on 01.01.2010!
But GORDON can start planning his retirement now - he’s old enough!
LOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOL Labour = total failures!
Where are the labour posters now?!
CLUCK CLUCK CLUCK CLUCK
155. Of course not because blacks are but one ethnic minority! Your brain seems to have been turned to blancmange by political correctness.
“They will call him Bottler Brown and it is going to hurt
Cabinet ministers fear that Gordon Brown has made himself look weak and indecisive by taking so long to rule out an election”
Andrew Rawnsley
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/story/0,,2185459,00.html
“Counselling caution were greyer heads around the cabinet table such as the justice secretary Jack Straw, the health secretary Alan Johnson and the chief whip, Geoff Hoon.” “Douglas Alexander, a close ally of the prime minister and his election co-ordinator, was a crucial flipper. With Ed Balls, he had been leading the “Go Now” camp.”
“The accusation that he lacks bottle - that Mr Brown was willing to wound, but afraid to strike - dogged him throughout the Blair years.”
Snowflake ignores the big hit to his credibility sustained by GB which won’t disappear. When people hear him say ‘ I could have had a GE on my competence ( competence!) but I chose to carry on to demonstrate how I can bring about change( nothing to do with polls) they’ll think one thing.
Why is this man lying to us?
Re 155, Jake, “that you could learn to be more careful about what you say! would you say blacks when refering to ethnic minorities?”
You are a professionally offended bufoon.
Are you suggesting that the term “gay pin up” is offensive to someone? If so, whom?
159 - Totally agree.
The most amazing day in Rugby history.. I wonder if the bookies are up or down overall? (Including bets on Gordo?
Snowflake5, going into the ERM was also Labour party policy. It was one of those policies that had all party agreement. They were all wrong.
160 - which is why we taxpayers are concerned about paying an extra 1% NI to pour into health service which has ALL BEEN WASTED.
NHS is worse now than under Conservatives!
143. Snowflake… so on that logic you have to admit that your leader Brown is an idiot. He should have squashed this weeks ago.
But a weird combination of arrogance, hubris and insecurity has led him to disaster.
I’m glad we agree he is an idiot.
You have my sympathies. I think the long reign of centre left social democracy is coming - slowly - to an end. You will also grant some kind of referendum on Europe - or you will seek some pathetic face-saving compromise. You are too weak now not to.
I now think you will also lose the next election.
But you had three good terms. Pretty damn impressive. And you managed the economy well. Kudos.
167 - good call. Normally rugby is boring with the better team always winning.
Gordon can look forward to Scotland game tomorrow night as next world cup he will be in retirement in the manse!
GB deserves Z- for the complete balls-up that has been made of the past couple of weeks. And talking of Balls - he deserves Z– for the asinine remark that the gamble was whether to go now or later -thus not only stoking up speculation but also suggesting that things are going to get worse. However, we must remember that in the past GB has played a masterful hand - A+ in fact - to remain the heir apparent for 13 years and achieve the premiership without a leadership contest takes rare political skill. This episode - bad though it is - will be forgotten in a few weeks if he recovers his poise. But I think there is now no chance of an election before 2009 at the earliest.
125 “Labour voters tend to have jobs plus small children to feed, bath and put to bed.”
I definately don’t vote labour and I have all the things you have on your checklist.
125 “As for Tories in the previous thread saying this was “Black Wednesday” - don’t be so silly.”
I actually tend to agree with you snowflake, but I am afraid it is not sunshine and light for labour. Their whole strategy to beat Cameron was that Brown was the strong decisive leader whilst Cameron was the fey Toff. That strategy is in a million pieces and it will not make a return. Decisive Brown is gone in the public mind and Cameron now truly does look like the stronger, more in touch, brighter leader.
138 The lib dem council is under pressure - so they face a double attack come a general election - time for a change and at best a stalemate locally - once again look back at the history - the tories lost this seat due to all the reasons and more that lead to the end of Tory rule - but with a solid game - not unlike the England pack today they will take this seat back - i agree a huge turnover - but quite a natural one
164. The public know Brown is cautious. The press said similar things about Brown’s “credibility” last Sept because he didn’t want to knife Blair a la Thatcher. But all the indications are that he took the right decision then, (the public wanted and got a smooth handover) and this too will prove to be the correct decision.
The best generals pick their battles carefully. Charging in when you shouldn’t just because some foolish people imagine this is brave is a recipe for disaster. It recalls some of the pointless going over the top in WW1.
175. Why didn’t Brown stop this earlier? If he is so smart?