ICM poll gives Tories 6% lead in 50 marginals
October 6th, 2007
Just broadcast on BBC News 24. No further details at the moment.
UPDATE - this is how it is being reported on the paper’s website:-
GORDON Brown will LOSE his majority and be forced to battle for control of a hung parliament if he decides to call a snap General Election according to an exclusive poll in tomorrow’s News of the World.The ICM poll of the key marginal constituencies that will decide whether he stays in power reveals he will lose almost 50 seats.
This is the first poll that delves deep into these key seats – and it shows the Conservatives are poised to make sweeping gains – unseating 49 Labour MPs including Home Secretary Jacqui Smith and a host of other Ministers.
The poll gives the Conservatives a 6% lead over Labour in the marginals (44% versus 38%) – a substantially higher figure than recent national polls, which showed the Tories level or close behind.
That result would give Labour approximately 306 seats, with the Conservatives behind on 246. It is not possible to predict how the other parties would stand.
The poll confirms that turn-out would be a problem for Labour. When asked, 59% of Labour voters said they were certain to vote, compared to 71% of Conservatives.
The poll has been taken in the same seats being studied by Prime Minister Gordon Brown as he struggles to decide whether to call an election this week.
Pollsters ICM quizzed voters in the 83 key battlegrounds where Labour and the Tories are fighting most closely for control AFTER David Cameron’s closing speech at the Tory conference in Blackpool.
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The first casualty will by Ming Campbell
They add, 49 Conservative gains!
Election in 2009 or 2010!
1 - The first casualty has been Brown’s credibility.
Mike, the link is here:
http://notw.typepad.com/saturday_notw/2007/10/stop-press.html
Ted posted it in the last thread.
Wow. But did they only do 50 seats and foudn we would win 49?
Surely then as someoe said on the last thread we would win more as well?
The numbers are misleading, this should be a *minimum* of 49 gains as they only polled in 49 labour marginal constituencies. Having said that how on earth can they extrapolate individual constituencies from a 1000 sample over all of them?
According to Anthony Wells the polling was in the 49 most marginal Lab/Con seats AND the 34 most marginal Con/Lab seats . A 6% Conservative lead would therefore indicate a swing of around 3.5 to 4 % overall in these seats .
3. The second casualty will be Ave It 07’s moniker on here. I wonder if his private polling played any part in this.
5 - They only did 49 seats plus some currently tory held ones.
I’ve now put up the NOTW story
Interestingly the fieldwork for this was started on the 2nd October so a lot of the work would not take full account of the Conservative bounce would it?
Steve Richards calling is a “colossal error” and a “terrible mistake”.
This is no one-week wonder.
7 - Have you got the 2005 % from those constituencies Mark?
Comment from Tony Blair please ?
9 - No they did the 83 most marginal Labour/Conservative seats.
14 - He is too busy laughing.
Frit!
15 - Not quite - 83 overall but only 49 of them currently labour held, therefore 49 seats means that they would all have been gained by the tories and none currently held lost.
Re 7:
Interviewing was spread across the 49 most marginal constituencies which are notionally held by Labour with the Conservatives in second place, and the 34 most marginal Conservative held constituencies where Labour are in second place
It should be possible to list those constituencies but it will take some time to tally up the vote shares and see what would happen on a national uniform swing (and include the Lib Dems as well)
will dave do pmqs in a chicken suit???
13 Sorry no , if I get bored later , I may work it out .
Ming quick out of the blocks on Sky and ripping Brown apart (hurrah!), Cameron up at 5:30 with a response.
6. They’ve probably used the marginals as a sub-set, taken a sample of voters from this sub-set, then extrapolated a uniform swing across the marginals…
21 - Okay, no problem. Just trying to work out the potential inter party swings.
reposted from previous thread:
Not Black Wednesday - but Khaki Monday in Basra. One stunt blew the whole thing to pieces. Although Osborne played a blinder, Cameron was able to look statesmanlike compared to Brown’s cheap and distateful opportunism.
And for those who think this will be quickly forgotten. Wrong - we will remind you of it every day for the rest of Brown’s limping, quacking premiership….
23 - As I thought, which gives a general impression but will hide variations. What I want to know is if they were extrapolating a national swing or (as seems likely from the figures) just saying ‘well those are lost, dunno about the rest’?
From the Telegraph (Matthew D’Ancona)
The whole point of Mr Brown is that he is meant to be square-jawed, implacable, remorseless, unstoppable. He is, after all, the author of a (very good) book entitled Courage.
Now it turns out that he might be what I gather in Scotland is called a “feartie”: a wuss, a girly-man, the Coward of the County
Shame the Sun is publishd on a Sunday - wonder what fun they could have with Photoshop and a bottle of beer…
“Sun isn’t published” (hangs head in shame)
Ming is not in danger; he has done well in this episode, and did well on Question Time.
People really liked Cameron’s more gentlemanly style of politics, and that in Ming’s style too.
The leader in greatest danger is GB. Here we have an unelected leader (not even elected by his own troops) refusing to face the democratic will
On Sky, NOTW guy says constituencies were up to 4000 majorities, if that’s the case then it suggests at least a 4.7% swing and 60+ seats.
The poll also takes no account of Con gains from LD.
Con would get far more than 246 seats on these figures.
A real pity. So back to the hum drum of politics for the next two years. An election next year doesn’t make sense. He could hardly claim it’s for a mandate. I suppose the next thing of interest will be the Lib Dem leadership. This’ll be forgotten in a couple of weeks. I’ve forgotten it already and am concentrating on rugby and fine living!
26. Probably “dunno about the rest” but history says elections are won or lost in the marginals, and only a handful of non-marginals swap sides…
I’m not being funny, but I’d be putting my head in the oven if I was one of Browns advisors.
How embrassing can this be exactly?
It’s painful and nothing will stop the venom about to be unleashed against Labour.
Oh to be a fly on the wall in the PM’s office.
re 32 Roger, I don’t think this going to be forgetten quiickly or entirely.
Brown could now solve the West Lothian Question and this might let them off the hook, but I doubt he’ll do it. He could allow an EU Constitution referendum and try to rig the ‘Yes’ vote by allowing EU citizens the right to vote.
One poll only? Small sample?
I can understand why Gordon’s sensibly parking the bandwagon, but the rest of us - cool, calm, calculating posters and punters - shouldn’t we calm down?
We shouldn’t break our own unspoken PBC personal standards about treating any one individual poll suspiciously.
On reflection has Brown tried to bully his way into an election win in the same way as he bullied his way into the Labour leadership?
Was Broxtowe in the surveyed marginals?
Was it the impending release of the ICM poll which forced Gordon’s hand, or was he prepared for the charade to run for a few more days in the abscense of this poll?
One poll only? Small sample?
I can understand why Gordon’s sensibly parking the bandwagon, but the rest of us - cool, calm, calculating posters and punters - shouldn’t we calm down?
We shouldn’t break our own unspoken PBC personal standards about treating any one individual poll suspiciously.
Brown is now finished as a credible Prime Minister.
It’s entirely of his own making of course, but this is extremely bad news for the standing of our country.
He should hang his head in shame and tender his resignation forthwith as the architect of this whole ghastly farce.
Ave It 07 - any truth in the story that Ashcroft has now Bolsover and Barnsley to his target marginals list?
He marched them up to the top of the hill and he marched them down again….
Betfair doesn’t seem to have reacted very well to the news. the whole site is down.
No election in 2008: Andrew Marr
I think Ming is now in danger and he will come under pressure “to visit his doctor”. Practically, there is now a window for holding a leadership election. Politically, Lib Dem MPs facing a Tory challenge will be very worried at the current poll ratings.
Sky News says no election next year either!!!
Marr on News 24 now having spoken to PM
Anyone know if these are the 49 most marginal LAB with CON 2nd after the boundary changes? because that would take Conservatives within 40 seats of Labour and we’d be looking at something like Labour with a majority of 10 as a maximum and more likely to be a dozen to five short.
Adam Boulton is well and truly p*ssed off with the exclusive going to Marr and the BBC. End of the special relationship ?
YELLOW SATURDAY!
38. Nick Palmer got the 1997 seismic shift right - just the colour of the winning party wrong.
His prediction was wrong wrong wrong
45. Oh God, he’s still spinning. Brown says ‘this decision is nothing to do with the polls’.
lolololol
Is that a firm promise Topcat (47)?
Portillo “monumental climb down” “remember when he said all announcements would be to Parliament” “worst aspects of spin and dither”. “not flash, not sound”. “never going to see Brown regarded in same way again”.
andrew marr’s red rosette is almost visible on news24 now
Sunday papers will be appalling for Brown.
fag end jim it is then…….economy implodes, nulabs 200,000 members start leaving the stinking ship….maybe nick p was right…..we are looking at a 1997 landslide at the next election…!!!!!
41 “[Brown] should hang his head in shame and tender his resignation forthwith as the architect of this whole ghastly farce.”
And then call an election?!?
.The whole farce demonstrates the need for a fixed term Parliament.
The result is in hung apliament territory and I predict that will be the result whenever an election is called.
Rogerh
A week *is* a long time in politics, no?
49. The marginals poll seems to have been unhelpfully based on the existing boundaries. i.e. 355-49 = 306. But Labour start not on 355 but 343-348 on the new boundaries. Confusing…
Sorry but used a different version of this to my Australian cousins
‘Tony Blair! Aneurin Bevan! Sir Harold Wilson! Jim Callaghan! Clement Attlee! Neil Kinnock! Ed Balls! Douglas Alexander - can you hear me, Douglas Alexander! Your boy’s taken one hell of a beating! Your boy’s taken one hell of a beating!’
Giving Marr an exclusive - another Basra type cock-up ?
The toady Marr on BBC …….. treating it like a jape, a minor bump…
One more way that this really screws up Brown long-term, despite what the sad Labour spiders on here would have us think, is that Brown has now had to rule out 2008 as an election year.
That’s what Marr has just said.
As I understand it the Labour plan was to have an election in 2008.
So Brown has messed that up, too. He is cornered into going long.
The whole Yellow Saturday fiasco (nice phrase Stevo!) has terrible ramifications for Labour which will play out slowly - but surely.
Interview between Brown and Marr just recorded will be shown on BBC1 9.00 a.m. tomorrow.
Marr saying ‘in effect’ Brown ruled out election in 2008 as well.
re 58. Lab members will be annoyed with GB for squandering a very good start as PM. But they’ll still be up for it as long as there is clear water to fight over and a genuine chance of Cameron becoming PM.
even nick robinson scathing…..comparing him to jim callaghan….hilarious
Good moment to bet on hung Parl…if one could!!!
Brown’s “pet broadcaster” Marr spinning that it was only some of Brown’s advisers who were pushing for an election, it was nothing to do with Brown.
Brown and his stooges just don’t know when to stop lying.
Is this what happens when you allow someone with psychological flaws to lead a party and the country?
re fr “Giving Marr an exclusive - another Basra type cock-up ?”
…as in only talk to one pliant journalist? Yes I agree it could be. He really needs to give all equal access. If not the ones left out will feel aggrieved.
How will Nick Robinson feel?
Alex Salmond putting the boot into Brown, most enjoyably:
“Gordon Brown is not so much the Grand Old Duke of York - more the big feartie from Fife!” Salmond said.
The first minister added: “Gordon Brown obviously looked at the polls north and south of the Border, and ran away at the first whiff of grapeshot.
“Those whom the gods seeks to destroy they first render ridiculous, and this shambles leaves Gordon Brown looking totally ridiculous.”
Nice one, wee Alex.
Shouldn’t Marr have let Nick Robinson at least report the decision first? Nick must be livid?
The media are annoyed that they’ve wasted money on all these election gadgets. So their using them now anyway.
Adam Boulton: “panic and despair behind the black door”. The payback has started !
Betfair working again.
Nick Robinson is a bit livid - called Brown ‘A bit of a chump’. The way it has been handled is ‘a mess’!
He will regret giving the news to Andrew Marr exclusively - the media didn’t like not being invited to Iraq (which made them very open to the Tory & Lib Dem attack of it as spin). Adam Boulton, Nick Robinson and the rest of the lobby will be merciless.
Andrew Marr may have damaged himself unless he is seen to be neo-Paxman tomorrow.
@58
I suspect we’re looking at 2 years of Labour planted smears from their pet journalists, AND vicious infighting in the parliamentary Labour party.
Excellent times ahead for the journos.
Brown on News 24 now!
Tories are flying on Spreadfair.
Brown statement on news 24 now
Oh dear - Cameron has called Brown’s bluff and the dour Scot has bottled it……
As I said from the start, he should have called the election as soon as he became PM. But he got greedy, and it’s too late now.
When Lab was 11 plus % ahead in the polls I said 3 weeks was a long time in politics and was derided.
NOW what, suckas!
Actual words of Brown to Marr on News 24 now.
I can think of several ecstatically grateful people today, Boris Johnson, Sarah Teather, Mike Smithson, Sean T…………………
first clip of tomorrows interview makes gordo look utterly stupid…… i want to show change…..weve dealt with crises….etc etc. an utter embarrassment
I hate to say it but Brown has blown his best chance. For the first time i my life I was going to vote labour - for reasons that Peter Hitchens has best explained.
Over the winter the effect of credit crunch will bite. Already thousands are being denied loans, credit cards and motrtgages. People will discover this winter that houses are not worth what a buyer will pay them, houses are worth what the bank will lend a prospective buyer.
This winter will see the beginning of a house price crash every bit as bad if not worse than the early ’90’s and with this will go Browns chance of winning a majority.
I only hope Brown can win some sort of minority, enough for Call Me Dave and his social liberals wing of the tories to be seen to be defeated and replaced.
BBC News 24 just shown following excerpt
Brown “I will not be calling an election, I want the chance to show …people the policies and change that will make a difference”.
So that tells us ………?
The tallies are:
“Interviewing was spread across the 49 most marginal constituencies which are notionally held by Labour with the Conservatives in second place”
(Gillingham and Rainham, Crawley, Harlow, Croydon Central, Portsmouth North, Battersea, Hove, Milton Keynes North, Stroud, Dartford, South Basildon and East Thurrock, Ealing Central and Acton, City of Chester, Colne Valley, Cardiff North, Hastings and Rye, Calder Valley, Stourbridge, Milton Keynes South, Corby, Vale of Glamorgan, South Swindon, South Dorset, Northampton South, High Peak, Loughborough, Aberconwy, Watford, Birmingham, Edgbaston, Stafford, Broxtowe, Burton, Brighton, Kemptown, Bury North, Redditch, Rugby, Pendle, Wolverhampton South West, Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South, South Ribble, South Derbyshire, Bristol North West, Dumfries and Galloway, Tamworth,
Cleethorpes, North Swindon, Westminster North, Worcester and Harrow East)
and the 34 most marginal Conservative held constituencies where Labour are in second place
(Sittingbourne and Sheppey, Clwyd West, Hemel Hempstead, Kettering, North East Somerset, Finchley and Golders Green, Shipley, Rochester and Strood, Wellingborough, Gravesham, Wirral West, Preseli Pembrokeshire, Filton and Bradley Stoke, Reading East, South Thanet, Enfield North, Scarborough and Whitby, Enfield, Southgate, The Wrekin, St Albans, Shrewsbury and Atcham,
Staffordshire Moorlands, Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale,
Ilford North, Forest of Dean, Selby and Ainsty, Putney, Wimbledon,
Beverley and Holderness, Basingstoke, Clacton, Peterborough, Monmouth and Bosworth)
Notionals 2005 Tally: Con 39% Lab 39% Lib Dem 16% Others 6%
Poll 2007: Con 44% (+5%) Lab 38% (-1%) Lib Dem 14% (est) Others 4% (est)
“One more way that this really screws up Brown long-term, despite what the sad Labour spiders on here would have us think, is that Brown has now had to rule out 2008 as an election year.”
- Well, even I’ll accept that there won’t be an election this year but I’ll believe the 2008 story when we hear the actual interview at 9:00 am. We’ve all heard too many stories based on leaks that have proven to be wrong. In any case, unless Brown explicitly rules 2008 out, then he still has leeway to change his mind (in fact there is no reason that he has to stick to 2009 even if he says he will).
Wonder if Marr asked why if he was so keen to expound his vision for Britain, why he didn’t do so last week?
Oh well! Pity, but there you go. All those chaps here who were saying it was terribly immoral to vote in ovember on an old register are now applauding the statesmanlike decision, I see.
92. 3% swing then…
93. Gordon “Yellowbelly” Brown, change his mind? Are you serious??
92 Will there be subsets for each Constituency
BTW Is Mr Senior Ming’s speech writer? Even using his mantra about real votes real seats. Winning v Tories, Winning v Labour etc etc
95. a ludicrous post entirely befitting a defeated party
“1997 type landslide”, Nick Palmer?
“I predict an Autumn election”??
LOL.
Kellner: YouGov Sunday Times “will tell much the same story”.
98. No
The feartie from fife quote is a stunner and reminds me of another word that comes from another dialect far to the south that has a certain resonance today.
‘The right hon. Gentleman is afraid of an election, is he? Afraid? Frightened? Frit? Could not take it? Cannot stand it? ‘
Still going for Spring 2008.
101 - YouGov showing a Tory lead? Will we see double figures by next week?
Anyone feeling a bit sorry for Alistair Darling? Will he have to pull some of his pre-election sweeteners now?
Gordon says he was face with challenges over the summer - terrorism - a failed plot - not exactly a tough one
floods - not a amajor disaster and what did he do other than fly around in a helicopter and try and spin his way out of his government being responsible for the run down in flood control
and then we have foot and mouth which is due to a leak from his own labororatory which has been run down due to cuts in government funding - if he keeps on spinning how great he has been over the summer - the Great British public have a right to vomit over his shoes !
Yellow the new brown
Nigel Griffith on News` 24, must be smoking drugs, my 400 majority will be 4000 in 2 years time
I think that Brown and Thatcher should be compelled to take tea at regular intervals, complete with photo ops, for evermore.
A suitable photo to replace Gordon on the banner (now we are unlikely to see the smiling Gordon’s on poll results for some time) which some might remember from the Sun a while back makes a welcome reappearance on the Guardian’s graphic of polls since 2005 on the February 2007 result.
http://politics.guardian.co.uk/flash/0,,1721503,00.html
99. Well said
Nick you’re a good guy and dedicated public servant, think about defecting to us.
Lets poke the Tories and see if they fall apart and/or publish a load of policies that fall apart.
They didn’t fall apart,but they did the latter.
there was never going to be an early election, But yes Brown should’ve killed this earlier.
and apparently the fieldwork for NotW was done before DC speech.
evens on Jan-jun 2009 on betfair now. But I’m going to leave my money on Jan-Jun 2010
103. *sigh* Do you have a brain, or just a basic spinal cord?
According to Andrew Marr, Brown has ruled out 2008.
Now, Marr seems to be quite close to Brown, wouldn’t you say?
Even if you don’t believe Marr, just look at the logic: we can’t go through all this again in Spring 2008, imagine the catcalls and derision. That’s only six months after this fiasco. It would be ludicrous.
Brown needs to put as much time between the next election and this disastrous farce. He has to go long.
Cameron on N24
Is David Cameron ill?
Nick
Please don’t demean yourself by peddling a ridiculous lie like the electoral register excuse. That was a rubbish point and I posted so at the time.
GB knew about the Society of returning officers’ bleatings last Sunday and yet he carried on electioneering in Iraq and on the NHS all through he week. Next we’ll get blue tongue. More like forked tongue.
Gordon Brown the banana PM; yellow on the outside and squishy in the middle.
Nick Palmer MP, you’re not doing yourself or your party any favours posting childish dross like that. Perhaps it’s now time for you to be a little humble and,dare I say it, honest, and admit that Brown’s behaviour has been devious, calculating, farcical, and highly damaging to this country.
not brown, just yellow
There will be no EU Referendum.
88: I can think of several ecstatically grateful people today, Boris Johnson, Sarah Teather, Mike Smithson
Not sure if Mike will be all that happy: site traffic will be a lot lower, so less revenue compared to holding an election. Might have made more money if he’d lost his bet.
92. Thanks Harry Hayfield
I suspect the media narrative will change in the next few weeks and for worse for Labour for at least some months.
British media seem to take up some sort of narrative and continue to go on and on with it as long as they don’t get bored…first it was Ming being useless (2006), then they got a bit bored with good old Ming and they throw themself to how not good Gordon actually was and their search for a challenge (late 2006/early 2007) to push against brilliant, young and fresh Dave, then Brown becomes great and young Dave useless (summer 2007), now I think it will change again..
88. And Peter the Punter. And me. Slightly frayed nerves over the last week at what could have been an expensive lay on 2007 - but it’s come in now! And England won. What a good afternoon.
With head back on - while Gordon will be damaged somewhat by his Grand old Duke of York impression, I don’t think it will make that much difference to his chances of winning in the future, although if he loses, then this week will go down as one of the more important. Most people will forget the details and while something of the impression of him chickening it might remain, I’d expect it to be swamped by whatever else happens in the next couple of years. The biggest impact will be on Tory morale. This feels like a bit of a victory, even though in reality it’s not.
As an aside, I wonder if Cameron had seen a poll of marginals of his own. Perhaps it the bravado or confidence (call it what you will) was based on some substance, now we know the substance is there.
haha, Nick Palmer, you know perfectly well that Brown bottled it, and he didn’t, and you don’t, care about the disenfranchised, only about crushing the Tories
May 6th 2010 is my best guess for the election.
Is this Labour’s Black Wednesday?
120 I think the political anorak in him will be truly grateful he won’t be away for a large chunk of the campaign now..
Adam Boulton spilling the beans, labour had briefed that there would be an election and they were just waiting for confirmation from the polls.
Live by spin, die by spin.
122 - that’s the key David. This was the conference where the Tories were going to tear themselves apart. It might not have happened but Gordon has made damn sure it didn’t.
He’s given himself some massive leeway to produce some more centrist policies, because the right know that he’s prepared to chuck them a few bones now and then. A united Tory Party is a very formidable force. It might just have finally happened for the first time in 15 years.
Trevor Kavanagh, “Cameron transformed by Brown’s contemptuous actions” “Things gone wrong are most of the domestic agenda where money was concerned”.
and along British media even pb.com comments follow some general trends based on opinion polls..first there were the “winning here” LDs (2005), then with LD going down and Cameron taking over, the rampant Tories arrived, then with Brown’s accession the few Labourites gained ground and became bold (along with Test, the Blue Hazel Blears of pb.com!)…now the Tories should be back in control
Cammo on BBC TV just now. Vigorous, articulate, angry, persuasive.
For the first time - the first time - he really looks like Blair did in the mid 90s. The Coming Man.
Kavanagh just mentioned Quentin Davies. Quentin “traitor” Davies. Silly europhile tw*t, not looking so smug now, are you? Switching to the other side just as they start to lose.
118. Please can we be a bit nicer to Nick? It’s good of him to come on here and post even if that post perhaps wasn’t perhaps him at the top of his game. The good news for pbc is that Nick will stay an MP for maybe another two years now!
126
Spilling beans ? Spitting blood and feathers would be my metaphor !
Trevor Kavanagh absolutely scathing about GB, if there was any doubt before it seems clear the Sun is now anti government, or at least one led by the present person.
A book to open on GB going sooner rather than later? Before or after Ming, or perhaps together, they could catch the same flight out to Edinburgh!!!!!
Well, apart from feeling cheated of my GE, and £25.0 lighter which I’ve paid to Ian’s charity, (a very good one too) I’ve now got to eat a very large slice of humble pie. It’s ok I’m used to the taste anyhow.
This is Cameron’s day it would be churlish, for anyone to say anything else, he’s inflicted a major defeat on GB, and strengthened his own position so that he is now unassailable.
For the government, they will have to work really hard to repair the damage, perhaps they won’t be able too. Third terms are always difficult, this one won’t prove any exception.
131. If Nick Palmer will just come clean and admit that
1. Brown has bottled it
2. This has been a dreadful and embarrassing fiasco
and
3. Blaming the decision on the electoral register is pathetic, and Brown should stop it, now
then I am happy to stop teasing him. Oh yes, he should also admit that
4. We must have a referendum, because Labour have to stop lying and drivelling now, and start being honest. The lies don’t work any more.
108. The photo on the BBC isn’t exactly flattering either: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/7031749.stm
Anyone heard any more about the YouGov poll tomorrow?
103. *sigh* Do you have a brain, or just a basic spinal cord?
“”According to Andrew Marr, Brown has ruled out 2008.
Now, Marr seems to be quite close to Brown, wouldn’t you say?
Even if you don’t believe Marr, just look at the logic: we can’t go through all this again in Spring 2008, imagine the catcalls and derision. That’s only six months after this fiasco. It would be ludicrous.
Brown needs to put as much time between the next election and this disastrous farce. He has to go long. “”
Marr said that Brown ruled out 2008 ‘in effect’ he didn’t say Brown explicitly ruled out 2008. Next time Brown won’t make the mistake of giving prior warning. In any case, people will have forgotten this last fortnight by the late spring/early summer.
The British Prime Minister is now being comprehensively trashed, abused, and ridiculed right across the news media. I suspect it will become even worse for him in the week ahead. Furthermore, this will not go away, this is a stain on the office which will remain so long as Brown is the incumbent.
Brown has brought shame and disgrace to the highest office in the land. Is his position now untenable?
May be Thatcher did set Yellow up, knowing that the reaction would force Cameron to unite the Tories and shaft Labour in Scotland and the marginal lab locations
Just maybe she played him big time
131 “The good news for pbc is that Nick will stay an MP for maybe another two years now!”
But make the most of him in those two years…!
131 David H. Let the wackos have their moment of fun.
But you are correct for most of the voters this will pass and be a distant memory in a few weeks. And neither should critics underestimate our Gawd as they did foolishly before Blair left.
So … all bets are off … until the new book begins !!
Lol at this idiot MP on the BBC. Claiming that the right wing will now tear Cameron apart
Andrea - very true. In 2005 when I first lurked and dared not comment ,such was the distinguished club that there was, I thought it was a Lib Dem site. Remember the hard time Benedict got for being a Tory, he was driven to set up a blog of his own to explain it (whatever happened to that).
Hope though that some of the more blatant astro-turfing and the over-enthusiastic party loyalty might disperse a bit (exclude GoM, Tyson, Roger, Ave It & Test who add to the joy) after we Tories have got over today’s (two if you support English rugby) victories.
And it is a victory - would have preferred an election and Brown having to face trying to put together a minority government after an unnecessary election - as Cameron faced down and has weakened Brown. He can’t be accused of being a butterfly anymore, he stung like a bee.
blue moon, I think Nick was attempting a joke regarding those who had raised the register issue, not hiding behind it.
I agree with you that no-one should get away with that.
140. Dear old Maggie. Still causing Labour headaches after all these years!
Stephen Ladyman MP now on BBC News 24 saying that this will cause difficulties for Labour - it will be forgotten but it will mean that the Tories will implode.
I wonder if Darling has two Pre-budget reports lined up or if he will be rushing to erase all those pre-election bungs.
134 “[Cameron] is now unassailable”
Credit to you for acknowledging that, grumpy-old-man. If anyone had said a week ago that Gordon could engineer that result, they would still be digging themselves out of the pile of derision!
A public thank you to Grumpy Old Man. Not only a prompt payer, but also made an additional contribution to my charity.
147 - Sorry cause no difficulties for Labour but immense difficulties and the destruction of the Conservative party…
147 - oh well he isn’t the brightest stooge!
144. Ted “Hope though that some of the more blatant astro-turfing”
The trolls usually come up just when some special events happen, then they go away. Sometimes I wonder if they’re some regular poster using a different name to post something controversial/rude just not to ruin his reputation
You would think that Sky would have understood the NoTW poll by now. Just showed Conservatives with 306 seats!
One final thing before I go out for a celebratory walk to Montagu Square (ah, the carnality of early middle age) - Brown has just come on TV and denied that this fiasco of a retreat is anything to do with the polls.
This is a blatant and total lie, as everyone knows.
What kind of decadent system do we have, where the prime minister goes on TV and happily tells a complete lie. A lie, moreover, that he knows we know is a lie. A lie that everyone knows is a lie.
A big fat lie. From the prime minister. What a sad state of affairs.
Just seen Cameron on the News outside his home.
A tip David.
If you’ve got four garages don’t stand in front of them.
Cons most seats into 2.4 !!! on betfair.
Lab 1.65 !
Fortunes made over the last week surely )))
158 - I thought he lived on a council estate?
So does it mean Widdy and Bruce George can now retire without being worried about contenders with parachutes flying over their seats?!
Peter Kellner on now
Kellner: YouGov poll “in line” with the marginals poll. Lot of volatility in women voters….
grumpy old man.
A very honest post. To be fair Tories on this blog, myself included, are in triumphalist mode which is, I suppose, difficult for others to take.
No doubt we will have our difficult moments over the next 18 months to 2 years but I posted consistently before the event that a back down would have serious long term consequences for GB. I am still convinced that’s true.
Kellner: the YOUGOV poll ‘broadly in line with ICM. Gender issue, he says. Women more Tory than men.
163 - So c 3% Tory lead then, i guess. We could be seeing 10% by next weekend after today.
144. Jack W, surely there must be the chance that this will NOT pass by voters.
We have just been given an insight into the mindset of the Prime Minister and, rightly or wrongly, the word “coward” is becoming a prominent adjective to describe his mindset.
If the media play up the impression of Brown as a coward, just as they played up the impression of Major as a grey man, they can cause real long-term damage to him. And from the looks of some media reports tonight, it looks like the special relationship Labour have held with several media outlets, News Corp in particular, seems to have been badly damaged.
I don’t think this is necessarily going to be a flash in the pan. Mud sticks.
157 seanT. Politician tells porky pie shock !!
165. is Alex the new Roger?
155 I must admit I’m feeling a bit hyped up - watched England hold off Australia (including that heart stopping missed penalty) then saw Gordon had bottled it. Hard not to gloat.
Still think Gordon’s biggest mistake now has been giving Marr the exclusive. The rest of the pack will tear Gordon apart and it will take some time for No 10 press operation to get a hearing. The bounce is deflated and it will be like that Wednesday last year when Hewitt, Clarke and Prescott blew up and put Tories in upper 30’s . Labour in lower right through till Blair went. He will need to become a winner again somehow.
141 I do think Nick Palmer MP is actually one the best Labour MPs around (hundred times better than my useless NuLab MP) - at least he lets you know where he stands. Spin isn’t just confined to NuLab - all major parties practice it.
163. “Lot of volatility in women voters”. Actually, just lot of volatility in women - full stop.
167 - You’re doing a game job trying to hold the line Jack. Me thinks you’re going to need some more support though.
158. Nice post. 1st time I’ve laughed out loud today. Cheers
144. Ted “Hope though that some of the more blatant astro-turfing”
The trolls usually come up just when some special events happen, then they go away. Sometimes I wonder if they’re some regular poster using a different name to post something controversial/rude just not to ruin his reputation
So anyone who doesn’t post on here every day is a troll?
The proprietors of tis site were proclaiming the popularity of this site in recent days. I’m sure the last thing they want is for it to return to a chattering shop backwater contaning a few regulars who scream “troll” at any new poster who dares interrupt their cosy club.
To be fair Andrea, I’m predicting it as a response to short term events. After what happened last week I think today should be easily worth a 3.5% swing.
And of course there probably won’t be a poll next weekend, so the moment will be lost.
174 - “The proprietors of tis site were proclaiming the popularity of this site in recent days. I’m sure the last thing they want is for it to return to a chattering shop backwater contaning a few regulars who scream “troll” at any new poster who dares interrupt their cosy club.”
Does the site have some secret backers that Mike hasn’t made us aware of?
Think Cameron should have shown his Thatcherite credentials “The right hon. Gentleman is afraid of an election, is he? Afraid? Frightened? Frit? Couldn’t take it? Couldn’t stand it?”
178. Oh, no, he would have looked aggressive…do women (the volatile ones) like aggressive men?
166 Matt1. I think not. Whilst we at PB and political journos pour over the each twist and turn of every political move, the punters don’t.
A lot of water will flow under the bridge in the months and years to come and frankly this whole episode will barely register.
The voters will decide as they always do on their pockets, the economy, schools, hospitals, crime, immigration and the governments record and the capabilities of the opposition on offer.
180 - Are you saying this will pass the general public by, or that it won’t affect the election (greatly). I think the latter will just be proven very wrong.
Brown is obviously fascinated by the concept of heroism, hence his book on the subject; but heroes (or the ones I have met), are utterly self effacing. Perhaps his fascination relates to his own inate cowardice
Sorry, the former
174 what a bloody mess - took me several months to post because I was concerned it was a closed shop and am pleased that lots of new posters have joined. It helps understand the ebbs and flows of politics and get better information the more we have.
There has been from one or two fleeting posters a bit of a pattern and resemblance to similar posts on other blogs that makes me wonder if certain political parties had decided to try a viral approach to their rebuttals. Could be wrong.
172 alex. I think the Scottish rugby team will have a tougher time holding “the line” than me !!
… nerves on edge already. 
I am most assuredly disappointed with my distant successor at No 10 in failing to lose an election sufficiently quickly to rid me of my unwanted place in history (which I only hold because I was unfortunate enough to die when I did, by the way). Does no-one remember my successes at the Foreign Office, my support for Queen Caroline, my support for the abolition of slavery? No, I am merely the prime minister who served the shortest time in office - and will now remain so for some time to come. Oh, cruel fate.
180. But wasn’t the fact Major was continually painted as ‘weak’ and ‘tired’ in the media one of the contributing factors to the enormity of the Tory defeat in 1997? I would argue so. Of course there were other factors but once a media narrative has been created it’s very difficult to stop the bandwagon. And I am a believer in the power of the media over national politics.
If the media start the Brown=Coward narrative, it’ll make things much harder for Labour (albeit that, of course, there will be other factors in play as well).
174. Bugger off troll !!
181 alex. Both.
I wonder if John Curtice will be eating his words that the Brown Bounce was not of the Harold Wilson 1970 variety but clearly durable and lasting.
In adition why is Thrasher saying the Tories need to be Ten or Eleven points ahead for a majority it is around 7.8 is it not IIRC
I seem to remember saying Brown doesn’t do courage. Cameron must be cock a hoop, A brillant day for the Tories, and the start of a nightmare for Bronm and New liebour (who are finished)
Happy Days
This was all a plot by a Scotsman to take attention away from England’s fantastic and historic rugby win
Just look at the timing - hardly had the final whistle gone in Marseilles and out pops the story.
Jack W
Thats the point though, this one isnt just one for the anoraks, the whole election business has been in front of the wider public and now Gordon saying no i won’t bother is also in the faces of the wider public.
It will seep in.
179 Andrea that was a quote from the Sainted Lady in 1983.
180 But they also decide on character. Brown’s trump card was his perceived strength. Voters will vote on other issues as they always will, but Brown musn’t project an image of weakness. That is the the real danger of this. Everything he does now must counteract this
188. It’s 11% on a uniform swing with the LDs on where they were in 2005. As the LDs fall, the required Tory lead also falls. With LibDems on 18% the required Tory lead is 9%. All based on uniform swings of course…
192. Ted, I was 1 year old when she said it…
186 Matt1. God forbid we have another Major !!
The media will get bored, the narrative changes and the world moves on. Note how quickly events have turned over the past week.
Anyway … Laters … I’m off to spend a few hours on the pray mat before the match tomorrow !!
Gordan Brown will find it very hard to portray himself as a an effective leader after this fiasco. I think this miscalculation and also the spring budget fiasco shows his true colours. To allow the speculation to continue and to indulge in such political theatre as we saw in Basra this week will make a lasting impression at least with the media if not the voters. I look forward to a giant chicken to follow Gordan Brown around over the coming months.
Lots of silly overreaction here.
Brown was always going to go long (I do think he wobbled last weekend).
I seem to Remember Thatcher winning an election a year after Westland for gods sake.(And after penning a resignation letter if her corrupt sons dealings and links to her had been exposed)
On the other hand,the posh lad has exposed some policies which will fall apart.
The really important figure by the way was the %of Labour voters certain to vote.
Labour supporters did not want an election.
Don’t any jubilant Tories forget that.
188 - so this weekend will have no impact on the polls then?
Evening all :). Quite a day, one way and another.
I’ve posted my own thoughts on my blog:
http://aloadofoldstodge.blogspot.com/2007/10/view-from-top-of-hill_06.html
Some posters on here may throw words like “cowardice” around but we all know the score. Brown saw his own Conference bounce and probably reasoned that if the Tories failed to impact on that bounce significantly, it would be a good opportunity to call the election.
To their credit, the Conservatives have closed that down though I suspect they know, as I do, that the 2008 Budget will have something to say about IHT and possibly stamp duty too. The public will have forgotten this “election fever” in three months even if the activists won’t.
I think Brown’s real error has been to rule out a 2008 poll and I can’t quite understand that. IF, and it’s a big if, interest rates fall and possibly fuel prices ease and it’s a quiet uneventful winter, the polls could look good again next spring and he’s ruled that out leaving himself 2009 and the first half of 2010.
I still think the election is his to lose and all parties must take note of the huge volatility of recent polls. Once again we’ve seen how the polls can be distorted by Conference season.
I don’t know what will be more fun reading tommorrow, the Labour excuses or all the hacks claiming they knew this was going to happen.
Justine Greening is on the news trying to be a stateswoman with a long historical view.
ahem.
202 - I don’t think the papers will be full of hacks claiming they knew this was going to happen. It will be absolutely open season on Brown though. And there probably won’t be much moderation since a lot of the articles will have been rewritten at short notice this afternoon!
I agree with those saying lay off Nick Palmer.
Politically and on every isue of substance including ID cards and the EU he and I are about as far apart as it is possible to be.
But he does come on here and consistently behave as a gentleman and his presence adds both a lot of interest, information and gravitas to the site.
He is wrong not to admit that this is a complete disaster for the Labour party and I hope that over the next few days we see his position on that change to one which is more realistic. I also hope that, as a Labour MP at least, he loses his seat when ever the election is held (sorry Nick!). But for now I believe he is a very valuable member of this community and we would all be sorry if he were driven away.
199 This is at the end of the glorious first 100 days, those days that are meant to set the tone of the premiership (well that’s what Balls led us to believe). He’s boasted of his moral compass then comes out with a feeble excuse; trust depends on being told the truth.
I think it will set the tone going forward, though, God forbid, some real crisis requiring courage and decisive action might redeem him. Jack W is right about the economy, NHS, education etc but they did John Major no good at all. He lost with a mini boom going on.
Tebbit is right. You can plan for an election in October. But doing so if the decision is based on opinion polls is politically crass.
Been busy today unfortunately - shame Betfair was probably quite exciting. But anyway thank you Gordon I knew you didn’t have the balls.
The interview I heard him give on the 6 o’clock news was the biggest load of rubbish I’ve ever heard come from a politician’s mouth. His views on getting on with the job and planning for the future applied equally well last week as now. Nothing has changed except his wish to spend millions of our money solely to Labour party political advantage.
It’s a wonder he has any children as he never takes anything through to completion, always bottling out at the last moment.
205 - Nick P is our hero on this site. If he does lose his seat, he has demonstrated on this site that he has the intelligence and social skills to quickly find an alternative outlet for his talents.
205: And spins heavily for his party which though not wrong doesn’t make him the hero you think he is. He’s employed by the people of his seat to do a job and should be open to scrutiny.
Nick Palmer is a thoroughly decent MP.
I’ve only commented on here for the last few days,but his contributions are refreshing for an MP out in the open.
Those few hardcore regular commenters slagging him show themselves up as sad and counterproductive if they want this site to prosper.
209 - Excuse the split infinitive, please!
298 - It’s his son’s birthday today.
Yougov - CON 41 LAB 38
BPIX poll gives CON a 1% lead, no other figures.
“Oh, chick, chick, chick, chick, chicken, lay a little egg for me!
Chick, chick, chick, chick, chicken, I want one for me tea,
I haven’t had an egg since Easter,
And now it’s half past three,
So, chick, chick, chick, chick, chicken, lay a little egg for me! ”
LOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Actually, the Greeks have two words which sum all this up: hubris, nemesis.
180. Jack W. I strongly disagree. OK your average joe public isn’t particularly bothered but the narrative has changed in the last week.
Brown attempted to redefine himself as a straight dependable guy, free from spin and for a while the media and the public bought it. His poll ratings soared and he saw an opportunity to cash in with an early election.
Every detail was planned including the shameful Iraq stunt, the ramping of the coming election and the planned date of the announcement to the Queen.
Then the polls turned and he has withdrawn from the brink. And then he goes on the record stating it has nothing to do with the polls! The public may not yet see all this but the media do and they shape public opinion.
Uneasy lies the head that wears the crown.
How does this leave Broen’s advisers. The bought new things have turned out to be cock up merchants. Who does he trust now???
Anyone explain YouGov’s poll? When was the last one done? That’s a 3.5% swing when nothing’s happened.
212 - I did notice that grammatical error on your part but understand that it has been an exciting day so alowances may be made. .-)
How many errors did I make in that last sentance… and this one
163 - So c 3% Tory lead then, i guess. We could be seeing 10% by next weekend after today.
by alex October 6th, 2007 at 6:09 pm
A week is a long time on politics.Do you want a bet on a 10% lead next weekend?
You have to remember that most of the people say they didnt want an eelction.
Rogerh
Channel 4 show Brown as a deflating balloon (fart noises included)
Channel 4 calls Iraq stunt “a fool’s mission”
stewart jackson mp……… lovely story. all power to you. any comment on todays events?
221 - Nope.
219: Apart from almost consistant negative Labour coverage. It happened to the Tories in the summer and someone thought an election might be a good idea.
224?
Douglas Alexander is an egregious w.a.n.k.e.r…
Alex - I’ve been saying for days that polls react relatively slowly, only some people make decisions quickly, others wait for a bit, hence the change.
Why on earth should Brown (not that I would ever vote for him) take the slightest notice of the jeers of political opponents who quite clearly hate (yes, hate) him?
WINNERS AND LOSERS: winners Cameron…grammar schools, floods, dumping the green agenda….all forgotten, Tories united.
Benedict Brogan, Guido Fawkes called it right…..
Losers: Brown - public see him for what he is, serious charater flaws…looks more like Richard Nixon everyday.
Lib Dems stuck with Ming. Andrew Marr always a controversial appointment by the beeb, losing credibility with every passing week
Labour unable to be interviewed on CH4: the shower of s.h.i.t.e.
Lib Dems on 11% (!) with Yougov
I want to see Anna Soubry as MP for Broxtowe but I dread the loathsome pb.com “Palmer stalkers” gloating when “Con gain” comes up. Nick is a credit to Parliament and his party and actually a public servant not a bloviator on a blog. He has my full respect and I hope Gordo makes him a working peer when Anna takes Broxtowe blue
Cameron ratings up 19%
Whats the market on Nick Clegg being Lib Dem leader by next election.
Thats got to be the outcome of this.
For those not watching the Rugby there is a film on ITV 4 tonight at 7.45 pm.
“Flash Gordon”.
233 Don’t buy it. That should worry Labour as if the Lib Dems are higher the indications are the Tory lead will be greater as Labour have sqeezed them hard recently. Only Ave it 07 would have the Lib Dems at that
Wait for it everyone….
Electoral Calculus:
Labour 344
Conservative 288
LibDem 0
The Lord has gone!
Silence from LD posters. Don’t they care about their Party? Surely MC has to be persuaded to step down. If Labour falls back then there will be a competition for those votes; at the moment the Tories look set to win it hands down.
LDs have a couple of years of breathing space; they really have to use it now.
“Losers: …Lib Dems stuck with Ming”
they may dump in between now and next GE whilst if there was a snap GE they could have not dumped him
234. I agree Test. I will be sorry to see Nick P kicked out but it’s something I have to wish for. I was looking at a leaflet we put out in his patch a couple of days ago as it happens.
Mike please please please can we have the 1, 3 or 6 Camerons. We’ve waited long enough.
233 11% overall does not correlate with the LibDem figure of around 13% in the marginal polls but one is Yougov and the other ICM . The ICM/ST poll will be an interesting comparison .
236 My view has been and remains that the next LibDem leader should and will be female .
The problem for the conservatives is that this is a great opportunity missed - if only they had not performed so well in the last week then Gordon may have been tempted and walked into a disaster
as i said in recent posts the preparation in the marginals is better than anything the Tories have done in the last 10 years and thanks to DC there are some very normal , electable candiates in those seats -
today the Tories were out in force acraoos all the marginlas and the reception was very positive
GB has seen this - and it is a wake up call to labour - anything could happen in the next two years so although the tories start with an advantage the future is not certain - i for one can bank some profits now but would have the prospect of doing much better if the election had been called so financial elation deferred - we just did too well in the last week . When it comes to the rugby my bet on england makes up for the delayed election
240: The Lib Dems aren’t that low, but they are being squeezed as much as someone sitting next to Prescott in economy. Perhaps Ming could become Lord Ming of Mongo.
A massive embarrassment for Brown, but I suppose less embarrassing than having the election and losing his majority. Kind of a shame it would have been funny if he’d gone for it and it had backfired horribly. The main result is that David Cameron has been bolstered and the Conservative party united after a bad summer. A Labour defeat in 2009/10 now looks more probable.
Channel 4 reporting “Fury” at the Young Turks
243 I also think this 11% figure ludicrous even though I may not rate Ming hee seems to be taking on the Statesman’s mantle GB had been assuming. I haven’t seen an ICM figure for Lib Dems. If so that’s good as bear in min all the seats polled were Con/Lab or Lab/Con marginals and none where Lib Dems were incumbents or challengers toConservatives or Labour
Agree entirely on Nick P and same goes for Stewart. Brave to post (and not spin too much - undestandable when they do). Marcus, Cymrumark, Rik W SBS and the other candidates and councillors also add to Pb.com .
Best comment on ConHome “I’m not gay, but if I were in the same room as Mr Cameron, I’d give him a juicy big kiss.”
244 - It works both ways though. Nobody knows what the future holds. Maybe the Tories would have done well in a November election but they wouldn’t have been coming in in good circumstances (if they won). There is an outside chance now that they could ultimately come in with Labour in tatters, and have a free second election victory.
Well, the Lib Dems have been invisible recently - not just the last couple of weeks, but the last couple of months. 11% is at the bottom end of the 14% +/- 3% range they’ve been trading on for a while. That said, Ming’s put on a good performance since Gordon’s announcement. Perhaps he realises he’s moving into the firing line now.
Well now we’re on for another two years for certain there will be no point in any more ‘astro turfing’ (Ted!) so we can all enjoy the politics again and leave the hard sell to cut price sofa retailers.
Congratulations to GOM. An excellent call against all the odds and you only just got it wrong. Congratulations to Cameron/Osborne for making you ‘just get it wrong’!
My new political resolution is that I’m going to give Cameron a serious look (now there’s no imminent danger of him being PM!) and I’m going to try to be a more objective poster. Now the pressure’s off for two years perhaps we can all enjoy good politics from wherever it comes?
Labour councillors can’t be happy. Have even lost the possibility of Council Elections being combined with a GE next year.
Tipping points…..people talk about tipping points in politics, in 2006 on the day when prescott’s affair came out, Hewitt was booed and the foreign prisoners fiasco went on all in one day it was wondered whether it was a tipping point. but with the Blair - Brown handover things changed, Through varios crises Brown showed strength and leadership and the Tories looked scared, unsure and troubled by internal demons. a turnaround in Labour’s fortunes had happened
But now there is disarray… post conference the media will question Brown’s strength, his judgement and whether his self styled “new politics” is actually just spin. The Tories look acceptable for a change and Cameron has a few years to let the electorate get to know him.
what I am asking…..basically is have we just seen the tipping point?
253
254. But County Labour Councillors now breaths again
243 - “My view has been and remains that the next LibDem leader should and will be female”
Which one? Featherstone is really the only one who is in with a chance this time round. Kramer looks unlikely. Goldsworthy and Swinson are surely too young.
257 - is that 2009?
158 “Just seen Cameron on the News outside his home. A tip David.
If you’ve got four garages don’t stand in front of them.”
To his credit though, he does let Prescott keep his Jags in them….
lib dems cannot dump Ming….only Ming can solve the problem, perhaps by using health as an excuse.
Re 95, Nick Palmer “Oh well! Pity, but there you go. All those chaps here who were saying it was terribly immoral to vote in ovember on an old register are now applauding the statesmanlike decision, I see. :-)”
You are ‘avin’ a larf arn’t ya? The man span in Basra and let he cohorts spin over an election, and now he has been shown up for the fool he is. Thats all.
Would any of this have happened if Channel4 had not gone for the ludicrous immediate poll after Brown’s speech ? (Presumably they were keen to show a Brown bounce as it fitted in with the media/No. 10 narrative that DC was superficial and week)
The publicity stung the papers etc to produce their own polls and the avalanche hyped up and set in concrete the Cameron bounce.
The same people who ridiculed DC for huskies, Ruanda etc are now telling a completely different story. They have no shame.
259. well, at least they have hopes that it will in 2009.
They were elected on GE turnout last time..if it’s not in 2009, they would suffer quite a lot IMO regardless of the swing.
Having just got back from dinner with the family I am a bit behind. I agree 11% for the LibDems looks risible. I imagine that they are almost certainly a good few points above that. However I would say that grass roots LibDems would be wise to analyse their position strongly although I would counsel caution. Whilst the figures look grim now, there is absolutely no guarantee that disposing of Ming would boost them. In fact a party that looked hopeless enough to need to effectively sack 2 leaders inside of 2 years may lose even more support.
264 - they’d still have been better off with an election now though probably
A hat-tip to Mike. He was justly right to warn against the possibility of an early GE.
Very little to add, except to add that this is the greatest Conservative victory over Labour since the ‘92 Election. Brown has demonstrated crucial weakness. It’s similar to the fuel protests, in a way; he caved when standing firm was still a possibility.
255. JJ asks “have we just seen the tipping point?” No - I don’t think we have. The big tipping points in the past have been matters of substance - the 3-day week for Heath (and the failure to win his battle), the Winter of Discontent for Callaghan, the Poll Tax for Thatcher, the ERM for Major, Iraq for Blair. Some tipped more slowly than others, but in each case, when they went wrong there really didn’t look like a way back. Blair’s case is slightly different, but after Iraq went wrong, he was never the same again even though he won in 2005.
This is different. No one has died, no government has been defeated or lost billions of pounds, no flagship policy has been felled. Brown has been forced into a humiliating climbdown, but that’s all. He’ll suffer damage no doubt but can come back if he can deliver on his promises and get the politics right. What Labour supporters should worry about is whether he has the judgement and character to do that. If he has, he’s kept them well hidden recently.
266. If Labour was going to lose a snap GE next month, maybe. If not, they would have had to stand for re-election in the middle of a 4th term..if I were a Lab County Councillor, I would have not smiled at the prospect!
267 - Obviously Gordon reacted the moment he heard Mike speak. Can’t be a coincidence
Re: 231 - An extraordinary simplistic and partisan analysis though I do agree with you on Ben Brogan.
Brown hasn’t “lost”, he’s not a coward or chicken or anything else. Had he ruled out an election last weekend and the Tories had a bad week, everyone would be condemning him now. The Conservatives have succeeded, at the cost of two of their main policies which will surely be closed down in the 2008 Budget, in keeping themselves in the game.
Brown did what anyone else would have done - looked at the polls and decided it wasn’t worth the risk. There is huge volatility (apathy, disillusionment) out there and almost any policy which looks “popular” or is supported by the Mail is likely to get a bounce in the polls for the party proposing it.
Government isn’t always about doing what’s popular but Opposition is ALWAYS about doing what’s popular.
Betfair price for a 2007 election has come back into 65 from out as far as 200+. What’s that all about? Surely laying at 65 is fantastic value now…
Mark Senior at 7:06 pm: “My view has been and remains that the next LibDem leader should and will be female”.
Who do you have in mind Mark?
272 - Profit taking. You’d be better off putting the money in a bank.
272. I would imagine profit taking. Suppose you laid £100 at evens. If you now backed £2 at 70/1, you’d be healthily up with the money in your pocket (or available to stick on another option).
274 not northern rock
It looks like GB will have to go long - so if you are long of con seats let the current euphoria run a bit and then close out - the cost of tying up capital for a long time does not make it worth it - of you bet on an early election - not looking good
Re 153, MB “Sorry cause no difficulties for Labour but immense difficulties and the destruction of the Conservative party…”
Did Steve ladyboy really say that?
:lol::lol::lol:
What a 42 carrat plonker!
211. Tim at 6.43pm
No offence, old chap, but you say you are new to this site (and you and all the other new ticks are totally welcome, of course!)
Fact is, we have managed quite well so far, even without your worthy contributions, in making this a popular site.
We seldom stray into overt abuse and vitriol. And when we do Mike S gives us a scolding.
But we are all grown-ups, and this is serious stuff we are discussing - the governance of the country. So we do get quite heated. And it is good that we are robust and candid with each other when we have serious disagreements.
So all this pompous bleating - lay off Nick Palmer, etc - is just that. Nick P is a big boy. He can take it. Indeed he is an MP. He is brave and honourable to come on here and post in his own name. He is also a jobbing Labour hack and not averse to the odd fib when it suits him or his team.
What he is not, however, is a “hero”, as someone calls him upthread. Give over.
Anyway, just like to say I am on my second wind of gloating. lolololololololololol
I haven’t looked forward to the papers so much since we won the Ashes.
268 - The tipping points in the past have usually revolved round strategic reverses on an issue at the heart of the governments appeal I agree. With Major it was ERM which was ripped the heart out of the then govts. economic policy. I think it would be poetic justice if media relations, spin and casual misinformation was the tipping point for this government. I think tipping points are better identified in hindsight though. Let us all look back in six months time we should know by then.
271. an expert on simplistic analysis!
Government isn’t always about doing what’s popular????? That theory will be tested to destruction in the next 2 years. So lets sign that euro constitution, bomb iran, raise more taxes….that’ll give Mr Brown the momentum he needs.
With these sub-15% polls for the Lib Dems, what next for them?
Which MPs will go and have a chat with him? It cannot be a candidate for his job, so who are their elder statesmen/women?
Last time it took Sandra Gidley to pose the question although because she did it in front of the other MPs that was seen as indelicate. Her reward was a demotion from Ming so there may not be many volunteers.
What about Alan Beith? Or will his Deputy say “time we both left the stage”.
It will have to be done within the next few months to give their new Leader time to be elected and then bed in before GE June 2009.
Also will Chris Huhne lose out because of his now fragile majority?
As I said to you Sean at 3.30pm
There won’t be an election
watch the Rugby.
244 The problem for the conservatives is that this is a great opportunity missed - if only they had not performed so well in the last week then Gordon may have been tempted and walked into a disaster
I thought a lot about it before I wrote my own post on the subject. Why give the Labour the nod?
True, the longer Labour is in, the more damage they create - which the Conservatives will need to clean up. On the other hand, the backlash against Labour will be such that the measures required will be appropriate.
Only then will the people accept the reversal of the waste, the vast industry of busy bodies, Police impotence, the daily petty oppresion of decent folk and the criminal betrayal of the Armed forces.
It will not immediately resolve the British people’s pensions blackhole, it wont reverse the immigration that has forced young people into a trap of low pay, debts and housing crisis - but it can halt the rot.
It takes 3 years of Conservative government to fix 1 yr of Labour damage. The backlash is probably what is needed to keep Labour out of power for 36yrs.
YouGov Poll now on Conhome.
Conservative - 41%
Labour - 38%
Lib Dem - 11%
Others - 10%
AAAAVVE IT!!!
Although, there is a real danger that Ming is outed & a credible lib-dem leader emerges; which won’t help us.
273 I have always favoured Featherstone but Goldsworthy has impressed me in recent months .
re 282. If you feel the Lib Dems are done then there’s mega value on the spread-betting markets. The current level is 47-49.5 seats. So a £100 sell bet at 47 would produce a £4700 profit if the party lost all its seats.
The difference between people who just have opinions on this site and gamblers is that the latter are prepared to back up their views with hard cash.
So go on - bet.
My fav LD lady is Annette Brooks..I find her so reassuring! But I can’t see her as a leader
285. Casino you do realise that poll is Con-Lab marginals which give no indication at all of Tory-Lib Dem seats…..
286. Mark - Yes I do agree that one of those two would be better than their leading male counterparts.
282 As I have already said ,I don’t believe there will be any need for anybody to have a chat with Ming , he will resign early in the New Year .
Wonder what Cherie’s saying tonight?
Is it true that Kirkcaldy Fried Chicken is on the main course at 10 Downing Street?
Re: 281 - As I recall, Mrs Thatcher did a lot of things that weren’t popular. Had we had pb.com in 1981 I suspect the words “Tory” and “meltdown” would have appeared quite often.
In Opposition, you can come up with headline-grabbing policies because that gets you noticed. Whether or not they work or have been properly and accurately costed is immaterial. They sound good, the Mail likes them and they become a vote-winner.
What Brown will look forward to is six months of quiet Government. He won’t be raising taxes, bombing Iran or anything else. That’s not to say “events” won’t conspire to either help him or hinder him and that’s the great unknown in all this.
268. David Herdson, you normally post good sense, but this is a surprisingly unsophisticated an@lysis by you.
There are tipping points and there are tipping points. Some are economic - Black Wednesday is the obvious example, or the Wilsonian devaluation of the pound. Some are military - like the Falklands (positively), or Suez (negatively).
Some, however, are character driven. Big or little incidents that characterise a politician forever - or for a very long period. I’m thinking William Hague’s baseball cap. Or Walter Mondale falling off that stage. Carter and the hostages.
I think, over the last weeks, Brown may just have had a character based tipping point. The pathetic spinning in Iraq. The lies he just told Andrew Marr. The sense of an arrogant dithering weirdo in Number 10. The whole cowardice thing.
These images are the polar opposite of the ones Number 10 want to project. I think they will possibly stick to Brown, and be very difficult to remove.
289 - You’re confusing polls, galloglass
Somewhat bewildered by certain postings on this site.
Would have thought the conservatives have just won a general election.
Surely Her Majesty’s loyal opposition should be way ahead,rather than level pegging in the opinion polls just now.
My prediction for what it is worth is that LibDems will gain steadily up to the next general election.
Brown is like an airline pilot flying a dilapidated aeroplane shedding panels and leaking fuel. His choice is to land now with a 50/50% of saving the aircraft and passengers, or carry on flying for another 2-3 years with a 100% chance of crashing and burning.
I guess his taxpayer-funded pension calculations will be paramount, unlike the 125,000 poverty-stricken private pensioners he has shafted and who have nothing after a lifetime of work.
The LD aren’t done.
Replacing Ming with Clegg will drop the Tories by 5% and Labour by 2.
289. You’re wrong. That is a national opinion poll. You are getting confused with ICM NoTW poll which was just marginals.
287. Mike - I’d love to!! But spreadbetting scares the creeps out of me. Besides, there’s nothing to say the Libs won’t oust Ming and recover.
Have you taken your own advice?!
the tipping point is the realisation that nu labour dont care about the country - all they care about is themselves - we saw it under Blair and now we see that it has been there all along under Brown - i believe it is a huge tipping point - all the venom built up over of the blair years will start to fall on Brown - he is the architect of the Nu lab style of government - what is he for except his scheming self
the realisation is that nu lab exists to be in powere and not much more - and unlike Balir Brown is not even good at this game - the rats will start to leave the sinking ship and the media story from now on will be on labour spilts with the left led by Benn et al trying to regain the soul of the party that even us Tories respect
A simpler bet Casino is the Tories to win the next election.
For those jubilant today,2/1 sounds generous.
All those saying that ditching Ming will improve the LD’s standing would be well advised to rehearse some arguments if it doesn’t materialise. If Ming is knifed and replaced with Clegg or Chris Whom and the LD’s are still stuck with pisspoor ratings whats your excuse gonna be?
tim.
It’s not just Ming. The LDs need a really switched on modern media operation and a front bench team which is hungry for coverage. But if a new young leader is elected he/she could be expected to bring about these other changes. I’m doubtful about a she for the sake of it, though. Surely it’s Huhne or Clegg.
Ming has to be persuaded to step down; that’s the bottom line. It’s the first necessary step to getting back into the game.
New thread - And now we have the Davids
268,
I always said he shoudn`t have an election and didnt think he would until 2010, 2009 earliest .
4 year fixed parliaments are the way to go.
The people know all this election stuff only two years in either Cameron calling for one, or Brown thinking about one, is the way politicians act for party advantage under the present system.
The lib dems yet again for party advantage, but at least correct would bring PR in and four year fixed terms.
Some people on here are like Adam Boulton are pissed of because they were not invited, well he had a good run under the Blair years with his network then.
Thats why it isn`t a tipping point, no ones been hurt apart from some journalists big ego`s.
The Lib Dem vote will fall.
Iraq vote goes back to Labour.
However,One consequence of the Tories last week is that med term their “greenish” voters will drift back to the Lib Dems.
297. Why?
The main reason for the Lib Dem drop is due to the emergence of a strong and credible alternative government, led by David Cameron, and the replacement of Tony Blair by Gordon Brown, neutering their Iraq advantage. Remember, the Lib Dems weren’t polling particularly well between 1997-2001 and now that the Conservatives look credible…. we have 2-party politics again.
Sure, Ming hasn’t helped. But I doubt Huhne/Clegg replacing him will help very much, although they might improve a little bit they’ll look even less serious and irrelevant for doing it.
The Lib Dems are going to have to accept that they’ve peaked. Until they adopt a consistent policy position that defines what the believe and gives them a strong, core vote - they’ll only ever poll well when voters hate the government AND the opposition.
That might not happen again for another 10 years.
Nick P: Yes, I have indeed been “applauding the statesmanlike decision”. He has done the right thing…at last. He will be damaged by the time he let speculation run riot.
296 Would have thought the conservatives have just won a general election.
The Fat Boy circus in Iraq, was a last act of a desperate man. There will be more
Bogie-Man Pension-Snatcher Brown has bricked it.
Why are the Conservatives so? They smell blood.
Chris Martin from Coldplay has expressed his thanks to the great leader for selecting one of their songs to be the theme music for Labour’s next election campaign
He said ” We always thought Yellow was a great song. Now its in context, its even better”
301 How many times do I have to say that there will be no need to knife Ming he will step down early next year .
As I have already said the Yougov poll figures do not correspond to the ICM Marginal Poll figures . These show approx Con + 5.5% Lab -1.5% giving approx national shares of Con 38 Lab 34.5% and a LibDem figure of around 17-18% .
“Iraq vote goes back to Labour.”
Dear, oh dear.
On second thoughts go back to talking about IHT.
95 Nick Palmer:
Having been one of those who was indeed saying it would be questionable (not immoral) to hold an election which risked being a total shambles and disenfranchising a significant number of people, let me take up your challenge and say, yes, I’m delighted Brown has made this decision, and only sorry he didn’t make it a week ago.
However, I think Labour now has seen what Cameron can do when he has to. It’s the doss 3 years, pull out the stops and get a First syndrome. If Cameron and Osborne are guilty of underestimating Brown (as I think Portillo is now), Labour have recently been guilty of seriously underestimating the Cameroons. This will now have to stop!
294. Fair point re character / image and I’d accept that my analysis probably could have been a bit more sophisticated. I think I might have fallen into the trap of letting my instinct drive my conclusion, and let that drive the examples. Your Hague example is certainly right - he was never seen as credible while he was leader after the baseball cap picture. I wonder whether this will stick to Brown or not. If it does, will it be the fingernails that do it?
The reason why my instinct says no is that his caution is already implanted on the public mind. The boring, prudent, dour Scot thing might not be a very positive image, but it strikes a chord - not least because it appears to be true. His handling of the election fever plays exactly into the image. As such, this will only reinforce the perception of him. Only if that caution becomes combined with incompetance will he really suffer, and that I do think will depend on matters of substance (Hague was more or less new to the national scene when his image destroyed his chances so didn’t have a policy record; Gordon’s been around for ages).
Anyway, time for me to settle down in front of the rugby now.
293 I’m old enough and sad enough to remember a by-election before the Falklands which would have left one Tory MP.
Personally I did want the election as I would have liked to have seen us Tories bank a bit of the progress which has been made. However, all in all this is a good day for Tory councillors like me.
But, we all misunderstand what happened to John Major. Yes, the Wednesday was black, but no blacker than Westland Friday when Leon Brittan had to resign to save Margaret in 1985. The killer was to alienate the Tory voterate by not having a referendum on Maastrict - a point which William understands and Dave apparently accepts.
John Major lost because he was portrayed as grey, boring and weak. After 1992 he BECAME weak because of pillocks ( a technical term, similar to wankers ) such as Peter Thurnham MP who used the small majority to blackmail their own government.
Expect cartoons of Gordo to use a lot of yellow ink from now on. What is that quote, “Never again bright new morning”.
Labour vote holding steady, Libdems collapsing, Dave’s tactic of turning the Tories into the Nu-Libs is obviously working.
Now Dave’s got ‘em, he’ll have to keep ‘em. Disappointing for those Tories hoping for the Tories to turn right again.
GB may have one ray of sunshine, that the Yougov poll may turn some of the heat off him and onto Ming.
310 - knifed, resigned it will still leave the LD’s with a bit of a credibility problem.
I once had a meeting with Ladyman to discuss the Government’s plans to force unnecessary growth onto a rural District. I explained that most of the planned employment growth was based on distribution, and that with no investment planned for the roads, it was unsustainable.
His response was to insist that the Local Planning Authorities must use their powers to prevent extra warehouses arriving. Since the new spatial strategy mandated those warehouses, they have no such powers. The suits surrounding the Minister all looked at the ceiling in embarassment.
When the new plan was pushed through, it mitigated the problem by demanding a “modal shift” from road to rail and waterways - in a District with no railways, no stations and no canals.
293.6 months of quiet government????? Thatcher 1981 Brown 2007 you think there is a comparison???????????
Can someone give me the current spreadfair spreads on next ge seats?
Thanks
Re 318: Certainly
Labour 310 - 320 (Mid point 315)
Conservatives 249 - 258 (Mid point 254)
Liberal Democrats 47 - 49.5 (Mid point 48)
SNP 5.5 - 7.5 (Mid point 7)
Plaid Cymru 3 - 4 (Mid point 4)
Which infers 18 Northern Ireland + 4 Others (Respect 1, KHHC 1, Ind 1 + 1 Other gain which is most likely to be Green in Brighton, Pavilion)
Lab short of an overall majority by 9 (infers a 1.8% Con lead)