ICM poll gives Tories 6% lead in 50 marginals
October 6th, 2007Just broadcast on BBC News 24. No further details at the moment.
UPDATE - this is how it is being reported on the paper’s website:-
GORDON Brown will LOSE his majority and be forced to battle for control of a hung parliament if he decides to call a snap General Election according to an exclusive poll in tomorrow’s News of the World.The ICM poll of the key marginal constituencies that will decide whether he stays in power reveals he will lose almost 50 seats.
This is the first poll that delves deep into these key seats – and it shows the Conservatives are poised to make sweeping gains – unseating 49 Labour MPs including Home Secretary Jacqui Smith and a host of other Ministers.
The poll gives the Conservatives a 6% lead over Labour in the marginals (44% versus 38%) – a substantially higher figure than recent national polls, which showed the Tories level or close behind.
That result would give Labour approximately 306 seats, with the Conservatives behind on 246. It is not possible to predict how the other parties would stand.
The poll confirms that turn-out would be a problem for Labour. When asked, 59% of Labour voters said they were certain to vote, compared to 71% of Conservatives.
The poll has been taken in the same seats being studied by Prime Minister Gordon Brown as he struggles to decide whether to call an election this week.
Pollsters ICM quizzed voters in the 83 key battlegrounds where Labour and the Tories are fighting most closely for control AFTER David Cameron’s closing speech at the Tory conference in Blackpool.
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The first casualty will by Ming Campbell
They add, 49 Conservative gains!
Election in 2009 or 2010!
1 - The first casualty has been Brown’s credibility.
Mike, the link is here:
http://notw.typepad.com/saturday_notw/2007/10/stop-press.html
Ted posted it in the last thread.
Wow. But did they only do 50 seats and foudn we would win 49?
Surely then as someoe said on the last thread we would win more as well?
The numbers are misleading, this should be a *minimum* of 49 gains as they only polled in 49 labour marginal constituencies. Having said that how on earth can they extrapolate individual constituencies from a 1000 sample over all of them?
According to Anthony Wells the polling was in the 49 most marginal Lab/Con seats AND the 34 most marginal Con/Lab seats . A 6% Conservative lead would therefore indicate a swing of around 3.5 to 4 % overall in these seats .
3. The second casualty will be Ave It 07’s moniker on here. I wonder if his private polling played any part in this.
5 - They only did 49 seats plus some currently tory held ones.
I’ve now put up the NOTW story
Interestingly the fieldwork for this was started on the 2nd October so a lot of the work would not take full account of the Conservative bounce would it?
Steve Richards calling is a “colossal error” and a “terrible mistake”.
This is no one-week wonder.
7 - Have you got the 2005 % from those constituencies Mark?
Comment from Tony Blair please ?
9 - No they did the 83 most marginal Labour/Conservative seats.
14 - He is too busy laughing.
Frit!
15 - Not quite - 83 overall but only 49 of them currently labour held, therefore 49 seats means that they would all have been gained by the tories and none currently held lost.
Re 7:
Interviewing was spread across the 49 most marginal constituencies which are notionally held by Labour with the Conservatives in second place, and the 34 most marginal Conservative held constituencies where Labour are in second place
It should be possible to list those constituencies but it will take some time to tally up the vote shares and see what would happen on a national uniform swing (and include the Lib Dems as well)
will dave do pmqs in a chicken suit???
13 Sorry no , if I get bored later , I may work it out .
Ming quick out of the blocks on Sky and ripping Brown apart (hurrah!), Cameron up at 5:30 with a response.
6. They’ve probably used the marginals as a sub-set, taken a sample of voters from this sub-set, then extrapolated a uniform swing across the marginals…
21 - Okay, no problem. Just trying to work out the potential inter party swings.
reposted from previous thread:
Not Black Wednesday - but Khaki Monday in Basra. One stunt blew the whole thing to pieces. Although Osborne played a blinder, Cameron was able to look statesmanlike compared to Brown’s cheap and distateful opportunism.
And for those who think this will be quickly forgotten. Wrong - we will remind you of it every day for the rest of Brown’s limping, quacking premiership….
23 - As I thought, which gives a general impression but will hide variations. What I want to know is if they were extrapolating a national swing or (as seems likely from the figures) just saying ‘well those are lost, dunno about the rest’?
From the Telegraph (Matthew D’Ancona)
The whole point of Mr Brown is that he is meant to be square-jawed, implacable, remorseless, unstoppable. He is, after all, the author of a (very good) book entitled Courage.
Now it turns out that he might be what I gather in Scotland is called a “feartie”: a wuss, a girly-man, the Coward of the County
Shame the Sun is publishd on a Sunday - wonder what fun they could have with Photoshop and a bottle of beer…
“Sun isn’t published” (hangs head in shame)
Ming is not in danger; he has done well in this episode, and did well on Question Time.
People really liked Cameron’s more gentlemanly style of politics, and that in Ming’s style too.
The leader in greatest danger is GB. Here we have an unelected leader (not even elected by his own troops) refusing to face the democratic will
On Sky, NOTW guy says constituencies were up to 4000 majorities, if that’s the case then it suggests at least a 4.7% swing and 60+ seats.
The poll also takes no account of Con gains from LD.
Con would get far more than 246 seats on these figures.
A real pity. So back to the hum drum of politics for the next two years. An election next year doesn’t make sense. He could hardly claim it’s for a mandate. I suppose the next thing of interest will be the Lib Dem leadership. This’ll be forgotten in a couple of weeks. I’ve forgotten it already and am concentrating on rugby and fine living!
26. Probably “dunno about the rest” but history says elections are won or lost in the marginals, and only a handful of non-marginals swap sides…
I’m not being funny, but I’d be putting my head in the oven if I was one of Browns advisors.
How embrassing can this be exactly?
It’s painful and nothing will stop the venom about to be unleashed against Labour.
Oh to be a fly on the wall in the PM’s office.
re 32 Roger, I don’t think this going to be forgetten quiickly or entirely.
Brown could now solve the West Lothian Question and this might let them off the hook, but I doubt he’ll do it. He could allow an EU Constitution referendum and try to rig the ‘Yes’ vote by allowing EU citizens the right to vote.
One poll only? Small sample?
I can understand why Gordon’s sensibly parking the bandwagon, but the rest of us - cool, calm, calculating posters and punters - shouldn’t we calm down?
We shouldn’t break our own unspoken PBC personal standards about treating any one individual poll suspiciously.
On reflection has Brown tried to bully his way into an election win in the same way as he bullied his way into the Labour leadership?
Was Broxtowe in the surveyed marginals?
Was it the impending release of the ICM poll which forced Gordon’s hand, or was he prepared for the charade to run for a few more days in the abscense of this poll?
One poll only? Small sample?
I can understand why Gordon’s sensibly parking the bandwagon, but the rest of us - cool, calm, calculating posters and punters - shouldn’t we calm down?
We shouldn’t break our own unspoken PBC personal standards about treating any one individual poll suspiciously.
Brown is now finished as a credible Prime Minister.
It’s entirely of his own making of course, but this is extremely bad news for the standing of our country.
He should hang his head in shame and tender his resignation forthwith as the architect of this whole ghastly farce.
Ave It 07 - any truth in the story that Ashcroft has now Bolsover and Barnsley to his target marginals list?
He marched them up to the top of the hill and he marched them down again….
Betfair doesn’t seem to have reacted very well to the news. the whole site is down.
No election in 2008: Andrew Marr
I think Ming is now in danger and he will come under pressure “to visit his doctor”. Practically, there is now a window for holding a leadership election. Politically, Lib Dem MPs facing a Tory challenge will be very worried at the current poll ratings.
Sky News says no election next year either!!!
Marr on News 24 now having spoken to PM
Anyone know if these are the 49 most marginal LAB with CON 2nd after the boundary changes? because that would take Conservatives within 40 seats of Labour and we’d be looking at something like Labour with a majority of 10 as a maximum and more likely to be a dozen to five short.
Adam Boulton is well and truly p*ssed off with the exclusive going to Marr and the BBC. End of the special relationship ?
YELLOW SATURDAY!
38. Nick Palmer got the 1997 seismic shift right - just the colour of the winning party wrong.
His prediction was wrong wrong wrong
45. Oh God, he’s still spinning. Brown says ‘this decision is nothing to do with the polls’.
lolololol
Is that a firm promise Topcat (47)?
Portillo “monumental climb down” “remember when he said all announcements would be to Parliament” “worst aspects of spin and dither”. “not flash, not sound”. “never going to see Brown regarded in same way again”.
andrew marr’s red rosette is almost visible on news24 now
Sunday papers will be appalling for Brown.
fag end jim it is then…….economy implodes, nulabs 200,000 members start leaving the stinking ship….maybe nick p was right…..we are looking at a 1997 landslide at the next election…!!!!!
41 “[Brown] should hang his head in shame and tender his resignation forthwith as the architect of this whole ghastly farce.”
And then call an election?!?
.The whole farce demonstrates the need for a fixed term Parliament.
The result is in hung apliament territory and I predict that will be the result whenever an election is called.
Rogerh
A week *is* a long time in politics, no?
49. The marginals poll seems to have been unhelpfully based on the existing boundaries. i.e. 355-49 = 306. But Labour start not on 355 but 343-348 on the new boundaries. Confusing…
Sorry but used a different version of this to my Australian cousins
‘Tony Blair! Aneurin Bevan! Sir Harold Wilson! Jim Callaghan! Clement Attlee! Neil Kinnock! Ed Balls! Douglas Alexander - can you hear me, Douglas Alexander! Your boy’s taken one hell of a beating! Your boy’s taken one hell of a beating!’
Giving Marr an exclusive - another Basra type cock-up ?
The toady Marr on BBC …….. treating it like a jape, a minor bump…
One more way that this really screws up Brown long-term, despite what the sad Labour spiders on here would have us think, is that Brown has now had to rule out 2008 as an election year.
That’s what Marr has just said.
As I understand it the Labour plan was to have an election in 2008.
So Brown has messed that up, too. He is cornered into going long.
The whole Yellow Saturday fiasco (nice phrase Stevo!) has terrible ramifications for Labour which will play out slowly - but surely.
Interview between Brown and Marr just recorded will be shown on BBC1 9.00 a.m. tomorrow.
Marr saying ‘in effect’ Brown ruled out election in 2008 as well.
re 58. Lab members will be annoyed with GB for squandering a very good start as PM. But they’ll still be up for it as long as there is clear water to fight over and a genuine chance of Cameron becoming PM.
even nick robinson scathing…..comparing him to jim callaghan….hilarious
Good moment to bet on hung Parl…if one could!!!
Brown’s “pet broadcaster” Marr spinning that it was only some of Brown’s advisers who were pushing for an election, it was nothing to do with Brown.
Brown and his stooges just don’t know when to stop lying.
Is this what happens when you allow someone with psychological flaws to lead a party and the country?
re fr “Giving Marr an exclusive - another Basra type cock-up ?”
…as in only talk to one pliant journalist? Yes I agree it could be. He really needs to give all equal access. If not the ones left out will feel aggrieved.
How will Nick Robinson feel?
Alex Salmond putting the boot into Brown, most enjoyably:
“Gordon Brown is not so much the Grand Old Duke of York - more the big feartie from Fife!” Salmond said.
The first minister added: “Gordon Brown obviously looked at the polls north and south of the Border, and ran away at the first whiff of grapeshot.
“Those whom the gods seeks to destroy they first render ridiculous, and this shambles leaves Gordon Brown looking totally ridiculous.”
Nice one, wee Alex.
Shouldn’t Marr have let Nick Robinson at least report the decision first? Nick must be livid?
The media are annoyed that they’ve wasted money on all these election gadgets. So their using them now anyway.
Adam Boulton: “panic and despair behind the black door”. The payback has started !
Betfair working again.
Nick Robinson is a bit livid - called Brown ‘A bit of a chump’. The way it has been handled is ‘a mess’!
He will regret giving the news to Andrew Marr exclusively - the media didn’t like not being invited to Iraq (which made them very open to the Tory & Lib Dem attack of it as spin). Adam Boulton, Nick Robinson and the rest of the lobby will be merciless.
Andrew Marr may have damaged himself unless he is seen to be neo-Paxman tomorrow.
@58
I suspect we’re looking at 2 years of Labour planted smears from their pet journalists, AND vicious infighting in the parliamentary Labour party.
Excellent times ahead for the journos.
Brown on News 24 now!
Tories are flying on Spreadfair.
Brown statement on news 24 now
Oh dear - Cameron has called Brown’s bluff and the dour Scot has bottled it……
As I said from the start, he should have called the election as soon as he became PM. But he got greedy, and it’s too late now.
When Lab was 11 plus % ahead in the polls I said 3 weeks was a long time in politics and was derided.
NOW what, suckas!
Actual words of Brown to Marr on News 24 now.
I can think of several ecstatically grateful people today, Boris Johnson, Sarah Teather, Mike Smithson, Sean T…………………
first clip of tomorrows interview makes gordo look utterly stupid…… i want to show change…..weve dealt with crises….etc etc. an utter embarrassment
I hate to say it but Brown has blown his best chance. For the first time i my life I was going to vote labour - for reasons that Peter Hitchens has best explained.
Over the winter the effect of credit crunch will bite. Already thousands are being denied loans, credit cards and motrtgages. People will discover this winter that houses are not worth what a buyer will pay them, houses are worth what the bank will lend a prospective buyer.
This winter will see the beginning of a house price crash every bit as bad if not worse than the early ’90’s and with this will go Browns chance of winning a majority.
I only hope Brown can win some sort of minority, enough for Call Me Dave and his social liberals wing of the tories to be seen to be defeated and replaced.
BBC News 24 just shown following excerpt
Brown “I will not be calling an election, I want the chance to show …people the policies and change that will make a difference”.
So that tells us ………?
The tallies are:
“Interviewing was spread across the 49 most marginal constituencies which are notionally held by Labour with the Conservatives in second place”
(Gillingham and Rainham, Crawley, Harlow, Croydon Central, Portsmouth North, Battersea, Hove, Milton Keynes North, Stroud, Dartford, South Basildon and East Thurrock, Ealing Central and Acton, City of Chester, Colne Valley, Cardiff North, Hastings and Rye, Calder Valley, Stourbridge, Milton Keynes South, Corby, Vale of Glamorgan, South Swindon, South Dorset, Northampton South, High Peak, Loughborough, Aberconwy, Watford, Birmingham, Edgbaston, Stafford, Broxtowe, Burton, Brighton, Kemptown, Bury North, Redditch, Rugby, Pendle, Wolverhampton South West, Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South, South Ribble, South Derbyshire, Bristol North West, Dumfries and Galloway, Tamworth,
Cleethorpes, North Swindon, Westminster North, Worcester and Harrow East)
and the 34 most marginal Conservative held constituencies where Labour are in second place
(Sittingbourne and Sheppey, Clwyd West, Hemel Hempstead, Kettering, North East Somerset, Finchley and Golders Green, Shipley, Rochester and Strood, Wellingborough, Gravesham, Wirral West, Preseli Pembrokeshire, Filton and Bradley Stoke, Reading East, South Thanet, Enfield North, Scarborough and Whitby, Enfield, Southgate, The Wrekin, St Albans, Shrewsbury and Atcham,
Staffordshire Moorlands, Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale,
Ilford North, Forest of Dean, Selby and Ainsty, Putney, Wimbledon,
Beverley and Holderness, Basingstoke, Clacton, Peterborough, Monmouth and Bosworth)
Notionals 2005 Tally: Con 39% Lab 39% Lib Dem 16% Others 6%
Poll 2007: Con 44% (+5%) Lab 38% (-1%) Lib Dem 14% (est) Others 4% (est)
“One more way that this really screws up Brown long-term, despite what the sad Labour spiders on here would have us think, is that Brown has now had to rule out 2008 as an election year.”
- Well, even I’ll accept that there won’t be an election this year but I’ll believe the 2008 story when we hear the actual interview at 9:00 am. We’ve all heard too many stories based on leaks that have proven to be wrong. In any case, unless Brown explicitly rules 2008 out, then he still has leeway to change his mind (in fact there is no reason that he has to stick to 2009 even if he says he will).
Wonder if Marr asked why if he was so keen to expound his vision for Britain, why he didn’t do so last week?
Oh well! Pity, but there you go. All those chaps here who were saying it was terribly immoral to vote in ovember on an old register are now applauding the statesmanlike decision, I see.
92. 3% swing then…
93. Gordon “Yellowbelly” Brown, change his mind? Are you serious??
92 Will there be subsets for each Constituency
BTW Is Mr Senior Ming’s speech writer? Even using his mantra about real votes real seats. Winning v Tories, Winning v Labour etc etc
95. a ludicrous post entirely befitting a defeated party
“1997 type landslide”, Nick Palmer?
“I predict an Autumn election”??
LOL.
Kellner: YouGov Sunday Times “will tell much the same story”.
98. No
The feartie from fife quote is a stunner and reminds me of another word that comes from another dialect far to the south that has a certain resonance today.
‘The right hon. Gentleman is afraid of an election, is he? Afraid? Frightened? Frit? Could not take it? Cannot stand it? ‘
Still going for Spring 2008.
101 - YouGov showing a Tory lead? Will we see double figures by next week?
Anyone feeling a bit sorry for Alistair Darling? Will he have to pull some of his pre-election sweeteners now?
Gordon says he was face with challenges over the summer - terrorism - a failed plot - not exactly a tough one
floods - not a amajor disaster and what did he do other than fly around in a helicopter and try and spin his way out of his government being responsible for the run down in flood control
and then we have foot and mouth which is due to a leak from his own labororatory which has been run down due to cuts in government funding - if he keeps on spinning how great he has been over the summer - the Great British public have a right to vomit over his shoes !
Yellow the new brown
Nigel Griffith on News` 24, must be smoking drugs, my 400 majority will be 4000 in 2 years time
I think that Brown and Thatcher should be compelled to take tea at regular intervals, complete with photo ops, for evermore.
A suitable photo to replace Gordon on the banner (now we are unlikely to see the smiling Gordon’s on poll results for some time) which some might remember from the Sun a while back makes a welcome reappearance on the Guardian’s graphic of polls since 2005 on the February 2007 result.
http://politics.guardian.co.uk/flash/0,,1721503,00.html
99. Well said
Nick you’re a good guy and dedicated public servant, think about defecting to us.
Lets poke the Tories and see if they fall apart and/or publish a load of policies that fall apart.
They didn’t fall apart,but they did the latter.
there was never going to be an early election, But yes Brown should’ve killed this earlier.
and apparently the fieldwork for NotW was done before DC speech.
evens on Jan-jun 2009 on betfair now. But I’m going to leave my money on Jan-Jun 2010
103. *sigh* Do you have a brain, or just a basic spinal cord?
According to Andrew Marr, Brown has ruled out 2008.
Now, Marr seems to be quite close to Brown, wouldn’t you say?
Even if you don’t believe Marr, just look at the logic: we can’t go through all this again in Spring 2008, imagine the catcalls and derision. That’s only six months after this fiasco. It would be ludicrous.
Brown needs to put as much time between the next election and this disastrous farce. He has to go long.
Cameron on N24
Is David Cameron ill?
Nick
Please don’t demean yourself by peddling a ridiculous lie like the electoral register excuse. That was a rubbish point and I posted so at the time.
GB knew about the Society of returning officers’ bleatings last Sunday and yet he carried on electioneering in Iraq and on the NHS all through he week. Next we’ll get blue tongue. More like forked tongue.
Gordon Brown the banana PM; yellow on the outside and squishy in the middle.
Nick Palmer MP, you’re not doing yourself or your party any favours posting childish dross like that. Perhaps it’s now time for you to be a little humble and,dare I say it, honest, and admit that Brown’s behaviour has been devious, calculating, farcical, and highly damaging to this country.
not brown, just yellow
There will be no EU Referendum.
88: I can think of several ecstatically grateful people today, Boris Johnson, Sarah Teather, Mike Smithson
Not sure if Mike will be all that happy: site traffic will be a lot lower, so less revenue compared to holding an election. Might have made more money if he’d lost his bet.
92. Thanks Harry Hayfield
I suspect the media narrative will change in the next few weeks and for worse for Labour for at least some months.
British media seem to take up some sort of narrative and continue to go on and on with it as long as they don’t get bored…first it was Ming being useless (2006), then they got a bit bored with good old Ming and they throw themself to how not good Gordon actually was and their search for a challenge (late 2006/early 2007) to push against brilliant, young and fresh Dave, then Brown becomes great and young Dave useless (summer 2007), now I think it will change again..
88. And Peter the Punter. And me. Slightly frayed nerves over the last week at what could have been an expensive lay on 2007 - but it’s come in now! And England won. What a good afternoon.
With head back on - while Gordon will be damaged somewhat by his Grand old Duke of York impression, I don’t think it will make that much difference to his chances of winning in the future, although if he loses, then this week will go down as one of the more important. Most people will forget the details and while something of the impression of him chickening it might remain, I’d expect it to be swamped by whatever else happens in the next couple of years. The biggest impact will be on Tory morale. This feels like a bit of a victory, even though in reality it’s not.
As an aside, I wonder if Cameron had seen a poll of marginals of his own. Perhaps it the bravado or confidence (call it what you will) was based on some substance, now we know the substance is there.
haha, Nick Palmer, you know perfectly well that Brown bottled it, and he didn’t, and you don’t, care about the disenfranchised, only about crushing the Tories
May 6th 2010 is my best guess for the election.
Is this Labour’s Black Wednesday?
120 I think the political anorak in him will be truly grateful he won’t be away for a large chunk of the campaign now..
Adam Boulton spilling the beans, labour had briefed that there would be an election and they were just waiting for confirmation from the polls.
Live by spin, die by spin.
122 - that’s the key David. This was the conference where the Tories were going to tear themselves apart. It might not have happened but Gordon has made damn sure it didn’t.
He’s given himself some massive leeway to produce some more centrist policies, because the right know that he’s prepared to chuck them a few bones now and then. A united Tory Party is a very formidable force. It might just have finally happened for the first time in 15 years.
Trevor Kavanagh, “Cameron transformed by Brown’s contemptuous actions” “Things gone wrong are most of the domestic agenda where money was concerned”.
and along British media even pb.com comments follow some general trends based on opinion polls..first there were the “winning here” LDs (2005), then with LD going down and Cameron taking over, the rampant Tories arrived, then with Brown’s accession the few Labourites gained ground and became bold (along with Test, the Blue Hazel Blears of pb.com!)…now the Tories should be back in control
Cammo on BBC TV just now. Vigorous, articulate, angry, persuasive.
For the first time - the first time - he really looks like Blair did in the mid 90s. The Coming Man.
Kavanagh just mentioned Quentin Davies. Quentin “traitor” Davies. Silly europhile tw*t, not looking so smug now, are you? Switching to the other side just as they start to lose.
118. Please can we be a bit nicer to Nick? It’s good of him to come on here and post even if that post perhaps wasn’t perhaps him at the top of his game. The good news for pbc is that Nick will stay an MP for maybe another two years now!
126
Spilling beans ? Spitting blood and feathers would be my metaphor !
Trevor Kavanagh absolutely scathing about GB, if there was any doubt before it seems clear the Sun is now anti government, or at least one led by the present person.
A book to open on GB going sooner rather than later? Before or after Ming, or perhaps together, they could catch the same flight out to Edinburgh!!!!!
Well, apart from feeling cheated of my GE, and £25.0 lighter which I’ve paid to Ian’s charity, (a very good one too) I’ve now got to eat a very large slice of humble pie. It’s ok I’m used to the taste anyhow.
This is Cameron’s day it would be churlish, for anyone to say anything else, he’s inflicted a major defeat on GB, and strengthened his own position so that he is now unassailable.
For the government, they will have to work really hard to repair the damage, perhaps they won’t be able too. Third terms are always difficult, this one won’t prove any exception.
131. If Nick Palmer will just come clean and admit that
1. Brown has bottled it
2. This has been a dreadful and embarrassing fiasco
and
3. Blaming the decision on the electoral register is pathetic, and Brown should stop it, now
then I am happy to stop teasing him. Oh yes, he should also admit that
4. We must have a referendum, because Labour have to stop lying and drivelling now, and start being honest. The lies don’t work any more.
108. The photo on the BBC isn’t exactly flattering either: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/7031749.stm
Anyone heard any more about the YouGov poll tomorrow?
103. *sigh* Do you have a brain, or just a basic spinal cord?
“”According to Andrew Marr, Brown has ruled out 2008.
Now, Marr seems to be quite close to Brown, wouldn’t you say?
Even if you don’t believe Marr, just look at the logic: we can’t go through all this again in Spring 2008, imagine the catcalls and derision. That’s only six months after this fiasco. It would be ludicrous.
Brown needs to put as much time between the next election and this disastrous farce. He has to go long. “”
Marr said that Brown ruled out 2008 ‘in effect’ he didn’t say Brown explicitly ruled out 2008. Next time Brown won’t make the mistake of giving prior warning. In any case, people will have forgotten this last fortnight by the late spring/early summer.
The British Prime Minister is now being comprehensively trashed, abused, and ridiculed right across the news media. I suspect it will become even worse for him in the week ahead. Furthermore, this will not go away, this is a stain on the office which will remain so long as Brown is the incumbent.
Brown has brought shame and disgrace to the highest office in the land. Is his position now untenable?
May be Thatcher did set Yellow up, knowing that the reaction would force Cameron to unite the Tories and shaft Labour in Scotland and the marginal lab locations
Just maybe she played him big time
131 “The good news for pbc is that Nick will stay an MP for maybe another two years now!”
But make the most of him in those two years…!
131 David H. Let the wackos have their moment of fun.
But you are correct for most of the voters this will pass and be a distant memory in a few weeks. And neither should critics underestimate our Gawd as they did foolishly before Blair left.
So … all bets are off … until the new book begins !!
Lol at this idiot MP on the BBC. Claiming that the right wing will now tear Cameron apart
Andrea - very true. In 2005 when I first lurked and dared not comment ,such was the distinguished club that there was, I thought it was a Lib Dem site. Remember the hard time Benedict got for being a Tory, he was driven to set up a blog of his own to explain it (whatever happened to that).
Hope though that some of the more blatant astro-turfing and the over-enthusiastic party loyalty might disperse a bit (exclude GoM, Tyson, Roger, Ave It & Test who add to the joy) after we Tories have got over today’s (two if you support English rugby) victories.
And it is a victory - would have preferred an election and Brown having to face trying to put together a minority government after an unnecessary election - as Cameron faced down and has weakened Brown. He can’t be accused of being a butterfly anymore, he stung like a bee.
blue moon, I think Nick was attempting a joke regarding those who had raised the register issue, not hiding behind it.
I agree with you that no-one should get away with that.
140. Dear old Maggie. Still causing Labour headaches after all these years!
Stephen Ladyman MP now on BBC News 24 saying that this will cause difficulties for Labour - it will be forgotten but it will mean that the Tories will implode.
I wonder if Darling has two Pre-budget reports lined up or if he will be rushing to erase all those pre-election bungs.
134 “[Cameron] is now unassailable”
Credit to you for acknowledging that, grumpy-old-man. If anyone had said a week ago that Gordon could engineer that result, they would still be digging themselves out of the pile of derision!
A public thank you to Grumpy Old Man. Not only a prompt payer, but also made an additional contribution to my charity.
147 - Sorry cause no difficulties for Labour but immense difficulties and the destruction of the Conservative party…
147 - oh well he isn’t the brightest stooge!
144. Ted “Hope though that some of the more blatant astro-turfing”
The trolls usually come up just when some special events happen, then they go away. Sometimes I wonder if they’re some regular poster using a different name to post something controversial/rude just not to ruin his reputation
You would think that Sky would have understood the NoTW poll by now. Just showed Conservatives with 306 seats!
One final thing before I go out for a celebratory walk to Montagu Square (ah, the carnality of early middle age) - Brown has just come on TV and denied that this fiasco of a retreat is anything to do with the polls.
This is a blatant and total lie, as everyone knows.
What kind of decadent system do we have, where the prime minister goes on TV and happily tells a complete lie. A lie, moreover, that he knows we know is a lie. A lie that everyone knows is a lie.
A big fat lie. From the prime minister. What a sad state of affairs.
Just seen Cameron on the News outside his home.
A tip David.
If you’ve got four garages don’t stand in front of them.
Cons most seats into 2.4 !!! on betfair.
Lab 1.65 !
Fortunes made over the last week surely )))
158 - I thought he lived on a council estate?
So does it mean Widdy and Bruce George can now retire without being worried about contenders with parachutes flying over their seats?!
Peter Kellner on now
Kellner: YouGov poll “in line” with the marginals poll. Lot of volatility in women voters….
grumpy old man.
A very honest post. To be fair Tories on this blog, myself included, are in triumphalist mode which is, I suppose, difficult for others to take.
No doubt we will have our difficult moments over the next 18 months to 2 years but I posted consistently before the event that a back down would have serious long term consequences for GB. I am still convinced that’s true.
Kellner: the YOUGOV poll ‘broadly in line with ICM. Gender issue, he says. Women more Tory than men.
163 - So c 3% Tory lead then, i guess. We could be seeing 10% by next weekend after today.
144. Jack W, surely there must be the chance that this will NOT pass by voters.
We have just been given an insight into the mindset of the Prime Minister and, rightly or wrongly, the word “coward” is becoming a prominent adjective to describe his mindset.
If the media play up the impression of Brown as a coward, just as they played up the impression of Major as a grey man, they can cause real long-term damage to him. And from the looks of some media reports tonight, it looks like the special relationship Labour have held with several media outlets, News Corp in particular, seems to have been badly damaged.
I don’t think this is necessarily going to be a flash in the pan. Mud sticks.
157 seanT. Politician tells porky pie shock !!
165. is Alex the new Roger?
155 I must admit I’m feeling a bit hyped up - watched England hold off Australia (including that heart stopping missed penalty) then saw Gordon had bottled it. Hard not to gloat.
Still think Gordon’s biggest mistake now has been giving Marr the exclusive. The rest of the pack will tear Gordon apart and it will take some time for No 10 press operation to get a hearing. The bounce is deflated and it will be like that Wednesday last year when Hewitt, Clarke and Prescott blew up and put Tories in upper 30’s . Labour in lower right through till Blair went. He will need to become a winner again somehow.
141 I do think Nick Palmer MP is actually one the best Labour MPs around (hundred times better than my useless NuLab MP) - at least he lets you know where he stands. Spin isn’t just confined to NuLab - all major parties practice it.
163. “Lot of volatility in women voters”. Actually, just lot of volatility in women - full stop.
167 - You’re doing a game job trying to hold the line Jack. Me thinks you’re going to need some more support though.
158. Nice post. 1st time I’ve laughed out loud today. Cheers
144. Ted “Hope though that some of the more blatant astro-turfing”
The trolls usually come up just when some special events happen, then they go away. Sometimes I wonder if they’re some regular poster using a different name to post something controversial/rude just not to ruin his reputation
So anyone who doesn’t post on here every day is a troll?
The proprietors of tis site were proclaiming the popularity of this site in recent days. I’m sure the last thing they want is for it to return to a chattering shop backwater contaning a few regulars who scream “troll” at any new poster who dares interrupt their cosy club.
To be fair Andrea, I’m predicting it as a response to short term events. After what happened last week I think today should be easily worth a 3.5% swing.
And of course there probably won’t be a poll next weekend, so the moment will be lost.
174 - “The proprietors of tis site were proclaiming the popularity of this site in recent days. I’m sure the last thing they want is for it to return to a chattering shop backwater contaning a few regulars who scream “troll” at any new poster who dares interrupt their cosy club.”
Does the site have some secret backers that Mike hasn’t made us aware of?
Think Cameron should have shown his Thatcherite credentials “The right hon. Gentleman is afraid of an election, is he? Afraid? Frightened? Frit? Couldn’t take it? Couldn’t stand it?”
178. Oh, no, he would have looked aggressive…do women (the volatile ones) like aggressive men?
166 Matt1. I think not. Whilst we at PB and political journos pour over the each twist and turn of every political move, the punters don’t.
A lot of water will flow under the bridge in the months and years to come and frankly this whole episode will barely register.
The voters will decide as they always do on their pockets, the economy, schools, hospitals, crime, immigration and the governments record and the capabilities of the opposition on offer.
180 - Are you saying this will pass the general public by, or that it won’t affect the election (greatly). I think the latter will just be proven very wrong.
Brown is obviously fascinated by the concept of heroism, hence his book on the subject; but heroes (or the ones I have met), are utterly self effacing. Perhaps his fascination relates to his own inate cowardice
Sorry, the former
174 what a bloody mess - took me several months to post because I was concerned it was a closed shop and am pleased that lots of new posters have joined. It helps understand the ebbs and flows of politics and get better information the more we have.
There has been from one or two fleeting posters a bit of a pattern and resemblance to similar posts on other blogs that makes me wonder if certain political parties had decided to try a viral approach to their rebuttals. Could be wrong.
172 alex. I think the Scottish rugby team will have a tougher time holding “the line” than me !!
… nerves on edge already. 
I am most assuredly disappointed with my distant successor at No 10 in failing to lose an election sufficiently quickly to rid me of my unwanted place in history (which I only hold because I was unfortunate enough to die when I did, by the way). Does no-one remember my successes at the Foreign Office, my support for Queen Caroline, my support for the abolition of slavery? No, I am merely the prime minister who served the shortest time in office - and will now remain so for some time to come. Oh, cruel fate.
180. But wasn’t the fact Ma