Sean Fear’s Friday slot
October 26th, 2007- Focus on Wales
“Punter” has asked me to comment on the Welsh constituencies on several occasions. As there are 40 Welsh constituencies, then my comments on the likely outcome at the next election must be brief.
Wales has been a left-wing stronghold since 1885. Firstly, it was monolithically Liberal, and then, after a period of confusion in the Twenties and Thirties, almost as solid for Labour up till 1979. Even in 1931, Labour won no fewer than 18 out of 35 Welsh seats, at a time when the Party had been reduced to 52 seats nationwide. In a typical election, Labour could expect to win around 30 seats in the Principality. That hold was shaken, when the Conservatives performed very well in 1979 and 1983, winning 14 seats to 20 for Labour, but from 1987, Labour recovered its dominance, in most parts of Wales. According to Anthony Wells, in 2005, Labour would have won 30 seats on the new boundaries, the Liberal Democrats 4, Conservatives 3, Plaid Cymru 2, and Peter Law would have won Blaenau Gwent.
Labour will retain a clear majority of Welsh seats at the next election, but may well lose quite a few. Of their seats, 21 look solid to me, namely Aberavon, Alyn & Deeside, Bridgend, Caerphilly, Cardiff South, Cardiff West, Clwyd South, Cynon Valley, Delyn, Gower, Islywn, Llanelli, Merthyr Tydfil, Neath, Newport East, Ogmore, Pontypridd, Rhondda, Swansea East, Torfaen, and Wrexham. The Conservatives have outside chances of taking Vale of Clwyd, and Newport West, where they performed very well in the Assembly election, and the Liberal Democrats have an outside chance of taking Swansea West, but Labour would be heading for a very bad defeat were it to lose those three seats.
Arfon, notionally Labour, but with a sitting Plaid Cymru MP will be an almost certain Labour loss, particularly as Plaid won it easily in the Assembly. Likewise, it is very hard to see the party retaining Aberconwy, where it has a notional lead of only 1,000 over the Conservatives. Remarkably, however, Plaid won this seat in the Assembly. In a general election, however, I would expect anti-Labour voters to choose the Conservatives, rather than Plaid. Cardiff North produced a huge Conservative win in the Assembly, and likewise, must be almost certain to fall. Carmarthern West and South Pembrokeshire was won by the Conservatives at Assembly level, and will produce an extremely tight contest at the next election. Labour have however, held on against the odds, at both Parliamentary and Assembly level, in Vale of Glamorgan, a constituency which would be solidly Conservative if it were located in Southern England. In all likelihood, Labour will retain this, unless there is a strong swing to the Conservatives at the next election. Finally, Ynys Mon will produce yet another nail-biter between Labour and Plaid. If Labour’s support is down overall, compared to 2005, then Plaid will take this.
Among the other parties, Plaid will hold Dwyfor Merionedd and Carmarthern East and Dinefwyr easily. I would also rate them as favourites to regain Ceredigion from the Liberal Democrats, given that it is a majority Welsh-speaking seat, and they won it comfortably in the Assembly. The Conservatives will retain Monmouth easily, and are probably home and dry Clwyd West and Preseli Pembrokeshire, unless things go very badly wrong for them at the next election. The Liberal Democrats will retain Cardiff Central, Brecon & Radnor, and Montgomery, where the inhabitants plainly elect their current MP for his entertainment value. Given that Dai Davies was able to retain Blaenau Gwent in the by-election, and Trish Law was able to win it at Assembly level, he must remain favourite to retain the seats.
Overall then, my prediction for Wales would be Labour 25, Conservative 6, Plaid 5, Liberal Democrat 3, Independent 1.
Last night’s by-elections were generally good for the Conservatives.
Bridgnorth District - Broseley West: Independent elected unopposed.
Cumbria County - Penrith: Lib Dem 800, Conservative 380, Independent 123, Green 34. Lib Dem hold with a strong swing from the Conservatives.
Great Yarmouth Borough - Nelson: Labour 329, Independent 257, Lib Dem 96, Independent (NF) 49, Green 43 . Labour hold. The Conservatives backed the main independent. The National Front vote collapsed, compared to 2006 and this May.
Harlow District - Little Parndon and Hare Street: Labour 794, Conservative 598, Lib Dem 117 Labour hold.
Harlow District - Toddbrook: Conservative 728, Labour 713, Respect 102, Lib Dem 67. Conservative gain from Labour. This makes the Conservatives the largest party on Harlow District Council, for the first time.
North Devon District - Witheridge: Conservative 448, Lib Dem 318. Conservative hold. The Conservatives won control of North Devon in May, and will be pleased to have held this marginal seat.
Penwith District - Gwinear, Gwithian and Hayle East: Conservative 493, Independent 192, Labour 170 Conservative hold. For some reason, the Liberal Democrats didn’t contest this seat, where they ran close in May.
Sefton Metropolitan Borough - Manor : Conservative 922, Lib Dem 769, Labour 419, BNP 94, Ukip 71. Conservative gain from Labour
.
Wrexham County Borough - Stansty: Labour 370, Lib Dem 271, Conservative 50, Plaid Cymru 45. Labour gain from Liberal Democrat with a huge swing.
I don’t usually comment on Town Council elections, but one that took place in Waltham Abbey yesterday, was notable for the fact that the BNP came within 18 seats of taking a seat from the Conservatives.
Sean Fear is a London Tory activist and writes a weekly column here.
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An analysis I would agree with Sean, being Welsh myself. In the North, where I’m from I would say you were quite correct. I would say that I think Plaid will win Ynys Mon and Arfon (the latter by a long way)and the Tories will take Aberconwy easily (I’d say as a native of the area that Labour’s notional majority is significantly less than the 1,000 you say, more like 1-200, if not a Tory lead of the same amount). The Tories will be fine in Clwyd West. Aberconwy and Clwyd West make up the county borough of Conwy and it just shows you the difference being in Wales makes. If located anywhere in England they would have huge Tory majorities already, both of them.
The Vale of Clwyd will stay Labour as Rhyl is such a factor in the population and is heavily Labour despite the more Tory leanings of Prestatyn and the countryside. Delyn et al. as you say are deffo Labour holds.
Is Cameron a man of hounur?
When will he apologise for his party’s role in the Scottish election debacle, as Labour have.
2 - give it a rest now, mate. You’ve made your point. Badly.
I take it you’ll be back at school on Monday?
2 - Don’t you ever get bored?
Sean has taken the trouble to write a well-informed and potentially useful [from the betting perspective] article and all you can do is repeat yourself from the previous thread, despite having your argument convincingly rebutted by several posters there.
It’s this sort of behaviour (from all sides of the political spectrum) that is currently putting me off the site.
When any politician starts talking about the need for honour, my trigger finger gets itchy.
Gabble, are you a man of sense/courtesy?
If so, give it a rest.
Good article as ever Sean. Interesting you should mention the Waltham Abbey Town Council election. Police were actually stationed at the polling booths all day in case of trouble. Quite unusual for a Town Council election I would have thought.
3,4,5,6
Of course, if I was attacking Gordon Brown you would all remain silent (or join in).
Sean, I think I disagree with 1/40th of your analysis - I get the impression that Wrexham is much more complicated than most other seats in Wales. Yes, I suppose Labour must be favourites to hold on, but the other three parties are all putting up a competent fight, and the demise of Forward Wales might not automatically benefit Labour.
8. I think all Conservatives (& Libdems) on this site are comforted to know that you are leading the Labour fight on here. You’re not Dougie Alexander are you?
2: You have made your point, now all you are doing is making yourself look silly.
Sean, great article as usual though it would be interesting to see the stats for that Waltham Abbey Town Council election to see where the rise in the BNP vote came from.
9 Hate to say something nice about Labour, but they are nailed on to hold Wrexham
8.Other posters have continued with the discussion on the previous thread deliberately to avoid dragging this into Sean’s much appreciated Friday slot.
12 What, Ave It? Is it safe even from the Tories? That’s not like you!
14 - as you know i am noted for my fair, unpartisan analysis….
CON GAIN ISLWYN (oops sorry that slipped out)
8,10(last thread) - Anatole (I hope you still remember what we were talking)
“If you can find polling showing substantial changes in percieved decisiveness of an actual leader (outside of the extraordinary such as Bush post-9/11), that would be much more interesting”
There is one, it is not about decisiveness, but is about indecision. When Paul Martin was prime minister (may 2005), 47% thought he was indecisive, but in December this number changed, 37% thought he was indecisive. .
“I’m not saying they can’t rise - I’m saying that they can’t fall from a good level then climb back up again”
I believe they can, but in Brown’s case I don’t know if they will…
10. I think it’s Derek Draper.
17. A true man of honour!
17 and previous thread LOL
17. Indeed you might be right!
;o)
Back to the thread. Re Wales assessment. I don’t know if anyone has been watching the Election Battleground series on 18 Doughty Street with Robert Waller. It’s very good and provides a lot of intersting background to each of the regions and their constituencies.
Anyway here is the show re Wales (30 mins):
http://doughty.gdbtv.com/player.php?h=046db04a913e31ea181a565faac13578
If you go to 18 Doughty Street there are Battleground shows for virtually all regions now. Worth a watch.
The Sefton result involved a 10.6 per cent swing from Tory to Lib Dems since May 07 in an Ashcroft funded Tory candidate’s own ward. labour were crushed and now have no councillors and few second places in the Sefton Central seat (Tories 12, Lib Dem 9)
It is only months since similar swings and losses to Lib Dems over three years in the neighbouring Southport seat was followed pretty shortly thereafter by the Tory parliamentary candidate in Southport resigning. No connection, obviously, but what chance is there of debi Jones now lasting another 12 months? One of her candidates came 4th in may behind UKIP.
8
http://dictionary.reference.com/browse/gabble
nuff said
22 - I don’t think I’ve seen such a bizarre and delusional post in all the years I’ve been reading this site, and that’s saying something…
23 - maybe he’s a chicken.
How appropriate…!
23. Spot On!
;o)
so 62% of the seats on 30-35% of the votes. And still the Tories think that they’re heading for an overall majority. We used to call seats like these rotten boroughs but I’m sure that there’s no appetite from the current government to reduce this unfairness to the rest of us.
The Welsh Conservatives are much better organised than the Scottish bunch so 3 gains is a conservative figure.
Are the Lib Dems suffering because they were in Govt with Labour or just their overall decline? They also have an election to replace Lembit, anyone know when?
Hmm… Many thanks for the arcticle Sean. It also looks like real elections show us in the lead.
22 Iain Lindley “I don’t think I’ve seen such a bizarre and delusional post in all the years I’ve been reading this site, and that’s saying something…”
Its the bunker mentality that has developed, Ming/Rennard said the May local losse of 200 councillors was a “mixed bag”. As in some bad results mixed with some very bad results?
Next we will be reading posts of election victories where there was no election. (Just like the other mad austrian fellow in the bunker).
Sean, I npticed that you reckoned that the Libdems would hold Cardiff Central which they won in 2005. Normally incumbent Libdems are hard to shift partly because they build up a local following and are not victims to the partisanship which exists between the two main parties. However, many of the 2005 gains were in seats with high numbers of students, Cardiff Central being a good example. Students move on after a few years and I doubt if may of those voting in 2009/10 will be voting in the same constituencies as they did in 2005. I think the personal followings of the Libdem MPs in these ‘university’ seats will be more fluid than elsewhere and I think some of their gains in Manchester, Cardiff and Bristol will not be retained as a result.
30:
Con win overall majority 2008!
Oops hasnt that election happened yet?
I find the number of safe seats in South Wales depressing. (Coming from Neath doubly so
) At least the Assembly has given some voice to those who don’t blindly vote Labour.
Does the Government even care about places that it knows it will always get this kind of sheep brained response from?
Off thread….. apology in advance, hope it hasnt been posted already, but echoes of Gordo here…………………
http://news.sky.com/skynews/article/0,,30200-1290285,00.html
31 good point, but Jenny Randerson has held the Cardiff Central Assembly seat with comfortable majorities since 1999 - there have been a few turnovers of students since then (including me). I can’t see Labour getting it back in a hurry.
33 - but did he also try to sneakily wipe it on his tie a la Gordon?
35 am watching the video..will report back…
35 Nope ! not as ghastly as Gordo, but bizarre nevertheless.
As posted with relevance to the previous thread -
(A) “Can someone please get Seant back to take the place of this gabble person? Seeing as it now appears to be fair game to gang up on individual posters it would be a good place to start a fightback against the labour spinners.
It’s that sort of pallid party hack who should be drummed out, as they have nothing to contribute, not even wit.
(B) People like gabble are making this site intolerable, there is nothing there but a reiteration of the same dull points and nothing at all to do with betting or anything close to it. Maybe we should all go somewhere else and leave them to quote press releases smugly to each other.
Actually, I think that has been the point (and we could mention another few ‘new’ posters), to try and close down debate, reduce the level of opposition, provide comments which are at best questionable and to attempt to smother the site with government spin.
(C) 193 - Gabble accusing people of lying, sounds as though he/she should be put on moderation to me.
I know the sample sizes are very small but the Mori Welsh subsamples from all their monthly polls show a substantial increase in Labour support since May and a dramatic fall in Plaid support . The Plaid performance in council byelections has been rather poor too . The nrxt GE is a long way away now but my feeling is that the joint assembly administration with Labour will hurt Plaid badly .
38 a very good call!
38. What was the story with Sean? I was away in France this weekend just gone and missed the happenings. Obviously he’d had a bit of a yellow card a while ago but seemed to be more reasonable recently - and pretty shrewd.
38 I think most PBers would agree, incl those of a Labour & Lib Dem persuasion, that this site is the poorer for the loss of seanT. But with no word from him for almost three days, it appears that he’s gone.
41: Pro Europhiles ganged up to stifle debate, fain outrage and blatantly lie, SeanT was deliberately goaded into making an unwise comment and paid the price. Meanwhile the likes of Gabble who is an unpleasant Labour troll is allowed to peddle his masters drivel.
Funny old world init?
Pretty much agree with Sean - expcept for Montgomery - Glyn Davies will win for Conservatives.
43 is the best way to deal with Gabble is to ignore his posts completely.Thats how most PB’ers deal with me !;)
43 - Gabble called the poster ’steve h’ a liar on the previous thread. I said as this started that it was unwise for pro-government posters to make their demands as it would be used against them, well here’s the first test. Is he/she going to apologise and retract the allegation or are they also going to be put on moderation with a view to being banned?
The irony is that seanT’s eurorants had become more sophisticated of late, including strategic analysis that even had some betting value.
I should say the shiny new Tory astroturfers outnumber the Labour ones but in any case we should perhaps form a small subcommittee to prevent any future appearances by Mike on Sky.
OT — a couple of threads ago, someone pointed out Baroness Thatcher running in the Breeders’ Cup tonight. While we were thus distracted, Thehonourablelady won at Fakenham this afternoon.
43 - i think that is a fair summary.
I havent seen Casino Royale or Martin Day here for a few days either - missing you!
On a betting note, David Steel is supporting Huhne, there’s money to ne had there I tell you. I don’t think that, given what happened with Ming, the MPs are going to be listened to quite so readily this time.
48 Probably still embarrassed by the Ruth Kelly exchanges!
46. He deserves to be put on moderation for being an intolerable bore, perhaps…but what a precedent that would set…!
50 - I thought someone may have had a word with both of them regarding some of their comments on that thread but, given that has not happened to me at any time SO FAR, I think that is unlikely….
49 I agree - I have only been put off backing Huhne because Clegg has been such an overwhelming favourite, but the more I see of them, particularly together, the more I am impressed by Huhne, e.g. when both appeared with Marr last Sunday - OK I’m a Tory, but am I missing something?
46 Don’t like the yellow card stuff - Pb.com has been pretty good at driving off the trolls, not sure why we’ve had these intermable threads asking for censorship; can anyone remember SeanT’s blog address - perhaps a begging comment from one ot two of us might draw him back?
54 Great minds, Ted - I was looking for this just 15 minutes ago, without success.
53 - What you are missing is that some lib dems think that Clegg will get more votes because he’s a bit like Cameron. Completely missing the point that a lib dem leader needs something different, a usp and, to tell the truth, someone who talks the language of the liberal left as did Kennedy.
Clegg would be a great leader of a free market liberal party, unfortunately the lib dems aren’t and, until there is PR, there isn’t the possibility of one getting enough support to matter.
It’s http://toffeewomble.blogspot.com/
54 - Sorry Ted but you can’t have one ’side’ using the tactic whilst the other sides don’t. We know where it started but it can’t be allowed to skew debate the way that some desire.
54/55: why not try:
http://toffeewomble.blogspot.com/
Thanks - found the thread. I guess something like that was bound to happen at some point but it would be a shame to lose Sean, especially once he’d redirected the well written vitriol away from fellow posters. I do think we need to be extremely careful about using terms such as ‘lies’ and ‘lier’ about comments / posters and only resort to them if something is demonstrably intended to mislead (for which posters should be punished, as happened when someone posted a false leak of an opinion poll a few weeks ago).
The reason I enjoy the site so much is the quality of the contribution and the level of humour. While that’s perhaps not as consistent as it once was, it’s still pretty good. However, incessant trolling and yah-boo stuff which adds nothing really does drag it down. I don’t know how many people do use the site to gain a view as to their betting options (hands up?) but it is still very valuable for that, not least because of the breadth of knowledge it contains. It’s should also be a fun place to be around - and usually is.
Piece said now. Back to Wales, of which I know little.
61. A far-away country
54.When ever Seant or Tyson withdraw from the fray I always think of that great Arnie Schwarzenegger quote “I’ll be back”! At the first whiff of grapeshot on the EU treaty he will be back here firing on all cylinders.
59 ? Think we agree
42: ptp - I’ve not wanted to say so as it seemed unnecessary, but since you ask, no - I think the site has improved immeasurably in the absence of seanT, whose posts were steadily dragging it down with serial rants and abuse that even attracted imitators. And yes, if Gabble has called someone a liar, that applies to him too. In general the discussions have been (a) serious (b) reasonably measured and (c) not obsessively about Europe. None of those things have been true for weeks when seanT was in full flow.
It hasn’t stopped the site being predominantly Tory despite its host’s LibDem preference, and there’s no reason why it should - it’s just that we’re getting sensible Tory arguments instead of abuse.
Excellent article as ever
64.Your both right, but just a bit a cross purposes.
65 - sorry Nick, you know i like you, but I can’t agree with that!
With no seanT the site is missing a key contributor (even tho I don’t agree with him about the referendum - I don’t believe in referendums)
64 - Possibly! I am on full alert to pick up on any government supporter crossing the line and think that we should demand equal and harsh treatment when they do. I’d prefer that people were able to post what they want but if they want a battle then a battle is what they shall get, it could get bloody though and who knows who will be left at the end.
56 Frankly, the Lib Dems won’t prosper by picking a Cameron look-alike. It’s Labour votes they need to recapture from Labour since it’s those votes which have resulted in the latter still having a 38% showing in the polls. Like a good many Tories, the Lib Dems for me now appear so far left that I would rather place my cross against the name of the Labour candidate. We all know, for example, that it is inconceivable that they would support the Tories in the event of a hung parliament, whilst they would be only too willing to rush into a power-sharing arrangement with Labour.
65. With all due respect Nick, as a bit of a lurker and occasional poster on here, I would say that perhaps the fact that SeanT antagonised and often disagreed with you is the principal reason why you’re glad he’s gone?
68 - i am going to ask mike to start highlighting posts with yellow and red cards!
65 Nick - would you not agree that Sean had become far more moderate in his tone of late and that the lies/liar/lying episode for which he was moderated has been far exceeded by both him and others in the past? Of course, I fully accept that it is Mike’s site and he is free to set or adjust the behaviour bar entirely as he sees fit - but I tell you this, PB.com will lose a significant number of hits should Sean’s absence proves to be permanent.
71.As long as its not the most prolific goal scorers red carded every time.
WE WANT YOU BACK SEANT!!!!!!!!!!!!!
28 Yes but also the Welsh Conservatives have been fortunate in the extreme in their enemies. Unlike Scotland where the SNP had a rightish tinge (hence the Labour taunt of ‘Tartan Tories’) PC were quite left wing and never likely to prove an attractive middle class option especially in the South where until recently they were seen as quite divisive on the issue of language. In addition the Welsh Lib Dems were and are a pale shadow of their Scottish cousins. Thus even during their dark times the Tories were never displaced as the alternative to Labour in “their” seats. So when the tide turned they were positioned to take advantage of it. The LD election is after the Locals in May
39 I would say that I think this will help you in Ceredigion where you also have as usual an MP working his guts out. Nvertheless like Guidford I predict this will be ultra close recount territory either way. Newport East I would say unlike Mr Fear is now more likely if you gain from Labour than Swansea West. First the impressive swing in May. econd as Mr Fear points out Labour will have their hands full with the Tories in Newport West who would dearly love to nail Paul Flynn and will have resource pressure. This should be reflected in May 08 Council elections. By contrast in Swansea the local LDs are in contrast in disarray, one Labour seat is rock solid so they can concentrate on West and the local Labour Party make their Newport cousins look the disorganised muppets they are by comparison with their discipline and focus.
On VoG yes but three things John Smith LD like in his limpetness. 2nd thousands of forces personnel moving in. Third the growth areas are all Tory. Labour has Barry and that’s it which is declining. If the Tories can only get John Smith out which will be far tougher than notionally harder CW&SP where the ‘deal’ will play badly and Labour will face an oposition vote that will unite solidly behind the Tories, then I think they have every chance to cement a grip here in the future.
31&35 Its not the students that are most important. Its the associated staff and lectureres etc. They are more permanent. Forget it Labour are gone in Central for a generation barring total LD meltdown. The slow extinction post Goodway of Cardiff Labour continues and they will likely receive anoth bad hit in May 08. This plus the massive City makeover means both West and South will move from Lanour strongholds to seatas they have to work. Much will hing on who clearly emerges as challnger where the situation is muddy at present. It should be clearer post May. If the LDs take outright control as they may, they will hope it will be them.
On solid seats well watch out for the Gower Mr Fear. Labour will hold but the big swing in May was a harbinger. The Tories have the same candidate. The area is also prettifying. The Tories can hope here in the future. As may the LDs in Wrexham one day for different reasons
45 I now conced this is conceivvable, but with all its History I find such certainty on Montgomeryshire containing a big element of wishfulness
Last Blaenau Gwent. Possibly but when the indies won it was a free hit. Labour were not under threat nationally and thus it was easy to thumb their nose at Peter Hain’s arrogance. If Labour are under pressure next time nationally this may well revert. Dai Davies does not have the surname of Law
65. I’ve tried to hang back, but agree with Nick. Ukpaul, Ted, Peter from Putney - BlueMoon is also a long time poster round here. Sean T called him a liar and then added to that “it’s a big fat lie” etc. BM appealed to Mike, mike asked him not to call BM a liar, Sean T refused and threatened to quit repeating his characterisation of Blue Moon, Mike handed out a minimal time out. That’s all that happened. Nobody banned Sean.
To say this was wrong is to say a temperate decent regular like Blue Moon must take being called a big fat liar. Sorry but I don’t agree even if I am an ardent Eurosceptic.
75 - So now gabble has to apologise or be treated the same way. Fair’s fair.
Baroness Thatcher is 22-1 on betfair. Runs at 9.25 on channel 415 if anyone is betting it.
76 I totally agree. Sean wasn’t even asked to apologise just to refrain from using “liar” and he refused.
We can make our points without calling someone a liar.
That obviously should apply to us all.
75 I recall that Sean went to considerable lengths in denying that he had called anyone “a liar” as such, but we mustn’t get into hair-splitting. Like a good many here, I considered him a considerable talent, he was one of the reasons I visited this site and, unlike Nick Palmer, I’m just sorry he’s gone, end of.
79: I could not have said it better.
Test I supported Blue Moon in that - though I felt the post was a bit misleading without context (not misleading as in lie but not eitherdirectly relating to a point raised earlier). SeanT was attacked by many asking for retraction and group pressure started to have its effect.
However (and I blame Gordon Brown for this - if fire, floods and plague were not warning enough fro the heavens) recently (after his assumption of power, see it is him!) amongst others we have lost JackW, PtP is posting less because of business, Andrea also an intermittent poster. The leaven has gone from the stodge that politics can become if taken too seriously.
78 - I disagree, both are petty and trying to make this place into parliament (and we already have one of those thank you very much).
I am, however, prepared to be just as petty and to pull up those who I disagree with on whatever pretext I can find.
70: not really, Matt - there are lots of people who disagree with me all the time without getting personal about it - e.g. ukpaul, with whom I think I’ve had one mild spat in four years (and I was probably in the wrong over it), and witan, who treats me with icy but polite scorn. The site is chock-a-block with Tories who express views that seem to me to range from the partisan to the mad, but seanT (and, a couple of times, Casino Royale) were the ones leading the site into the football-chant abyss.
ptp: as long as he’s posted on the site, sean has staged tactical retreats when he realised he’d gone too far, and we had a short period of restraint recently after which he let loose again, this time openly taking on Mike. But whereas he used to do the odd OTT rant, in the last few months he’s often hijacked a whole thread, posting again and again with one tirade after another. There is a whole string of regular posters who have left since he started doing it, and three have emailed me privately to say they couldn’t understand why I was still bothering.
Anyway, I didn’t want to start a long debate about him in his absence, but as you suggested that we were all regretting it I wanted to say it’s not unanimous. I’m sorry that this probably seems mean-minded, but I think he was well on the way to destroying the site as a place for serious discussion - it’s as serious as that.
77 Unfair on an 82 year old woman, betting on whether she can run round a track.
How do you respond to somebody who asserts, not on the basis of evidential argument but on the basis of his own supposed knowledge that something is true, without effectively calling them a liar?
83 - Nick, you really have been here long enough, surely, to know that Peter the Punter and Peter from Putney are two different people?
86 - “Your hold on the truth is less than tenuous”
“It is impossible for what you say to be believed by any rational person”
“I am sure that you believe what you are saying, you do not, however, mention the internal contradictions which led you to that belief”.
Same thing as calling them a liar but less direct.
79 his exact words were “Stop lying.” I don’t think it’s unfair that a thoroughly decent bloke like Blue Moon should ask for a retraction.
Sean wasn’t banned. I miss him too, but he was not banned. Have always said he could be an oustanding contributor when he dropped the insults.
Election results: Thursday 25th October 2007.
Cumbria CC, Penrith East
LD Patricia Bell 800 (59.8; +14.7), Con 380 (28.4; -2.20), Ind 123 (9.2; +3.6), Green 34 (2.5; +2.5), [Lab (0.0; -18.7)].
Majority 420. Turnout 29.7%. Ld hold. Last fought 2005.
Great Yarmouth DC, Nelson
Lab 329 (42.5; +0.1), Ind 257 (33.2; +33.2), LD Nick Dyer 96 (12.4; +12.4), Ind 49 (6.3; +6.3), Green 43 (5.6; -1.8), [National Front (0.0; -22.9)], [Con (0.0; -27.3)].
Majority 72. Turnout not known. Lab hold. Last fought 2007.
Harlow DC, Little Parndon and Hare Street
Lab 794 (52.6; +3.4), Con 598 (39.6; +0.5), LD Nick Macy 117 (7.8; -4.0).
Majority 196. Turnout 28.4%. Lab hold. Last fought 2007.
Harlow DC, Toddbrook
Con 728 (45.2; +5.4), Lab 713 (44.3; +3.3), Respect 102 (6.3; -6.6), LD Julian Watkiss 67 (4.2; -2.1).
Majority 15. Turnout not known. Con gain from Lab. Last fought 2007.
North Devon DC, Witheridge
Con 448 (58.5; -0.2), LD Kate Palmer 318 (41.5; +0.2).
Majority 130. Turnout 42%. Con hold. Last fought 2007.
Penwith DC, Gwinear, Gwithian and Hayle East
Con 493 (57.7; +4.6), Ind 192 (22.5; +22.5), Lab 170 (19.9; +19.9), [LD (0.0; -46.9)].
Majority 301. Turnout 27.1%. Con hold. Last fought 2006.
Sefton MBC, Manor
Con 922 (40.5; -7.6), LD John Gibson 769 (33.8; +13.4), Lab 419 (18.4; -13.1), BNP 94 (4.1; +4.1), UKIP 71 (3.1; +3.1).
Majority 153. Thurnout 22.8%. Con gain from Lab. Last fought 2007.
Waltham Abbey TC, Waltham Abbey Honey Lane
Con 299 (30.4), BNP 281 (28.5), LD Christine Akers 274 (27.8), Lab 131 (13.3).
Majority 18. Turnout 21.5%. Con hold.
Wrexham UA, Stansty
Lab 370 (50.3; +28.8), LD Bruce Roberts 271 (36.8; -21.9), Con 50 (6.8; +6.8), PC 45 (6.1; +6.1), [Forward Wales (0.0; -19.8)].
Majority 99. Turnout 43.6%. Lab gain from Ind. Last fought 200
50. 54. I posted a comment a couple of days ago which wasn’t picked up that my LibDem contacts who are well positioned at regional level say that Chris Huhne has it stitched up. Admittedly, they were taken aback at the swiftness of Ming’s departure so they may not be that much in the know but they seemed to think that Huhne has done the maths.
83. I can fully understand your viewpoint. I never became the object of one of Sean’s rants but can well imagine that it was very far from pleasant.
In some ways, I think Sean was like pbc’s Enoch Powell. Intelligent and erudite but whose actions and arguments justified (in their own minds) lesser people to imitate without necessarily understanding the finer points. With both men, I’m not entirely sure whether they looked on that with sadness or pride (or both).
89 - Interesting, Charlotte. Is this based on a sizable sample in just one region?
Charlotte possibly, but I think Nick Clegg’s successful media coronation, PLibP endorsements, etc, must be having their effect. There is no way I’d bet on Chris Huhne; Clegg has it sewn up and to my mind Huhne is now posturing for the best front bench role he can get.
91. One region. Small but well informed group.
92: The Lib Dems I’ve talked to believe Clegg isn’t as certain of winning as people think. When asked why that is they won’t say.
I still think Clegg will win.
The site is poorer without SeanT, who while occasionally being OTT was consistently entertaining and thought-provoking. It’s shame the self-important tendency on the site have managed to drive him off.
Reading Nick Palmer’s crowing up the thread about SeanT’s departure - and worse still the supportive twitterings from ‘Test’, one of the site’s megabores - is depressing.
94 When asked why that is they won’t say
Ralph - you’re not trying to tell us something are you?
So Mike, why are you blocking my posts?
Do you need to censor facts? Your site is becoming useless. No useful information, just spin & arguments. What’s left is bland moderated small talk.
95 I don’t think Nick P was crowing simply saying he will not miss him and I for another agree with him on this . You are perfectly entitled to take a different view .
95-Not sure why you’re surprised at NP MP crowing over SeanT, he did belong to a party whose salient feature was the intolerance of dissent. And I don’t mean NuLabour.
“Anyway, I didn’t want to start a long debate about him in his absence, but as you suggested that we were all regretting it I wanted to say it’s not unanimous. I’m sorry that this probably seems mean-minded, but I think he was well on the way to destroying the site as a place for serious discussion - it’s as serious as that.”==>read: “for the good of the party”
97. I’m not surprised. It’s been obvious since the start that Nick Palmer was being motivated by a mixture of personal animus and partisan considerations in trying to get SeanT kicked off the site. Funny how he isn’t in the least bothered by one of his party’s teaboys posting the same remark over and over again and calling people liars.
98. Nick was on many occasions roundly abused by Sean and while I accept Nick’s point that when Sean was in that mood it didn’t exactly help rational and impartial analysis, I’ve got to say that if I was Nick I wouldn’t be too sorry to see him go. As it is, I do think his contributions - particularly those when he wasn’t in rant-mode - often added something useful.
As for the reference to the Communists, that’s just being silly.
100-Why, because he believed in “democratic” communism? How about if he’d believed in democratic Nazism?
Anyway, curious to see how even when not posting, SeanT still dominates proceedings!
I’m not sure how bating MPs of whichever party helps the flow of information and intelligence on a betting site, and I seriously doubt we’ll persuade Nick, Stewart or any other honourable member to cross the floor.
My take on the Sean T saga. This is Mike’s site and Mike made a reasonable request to Sean T which Sean refused to oblige. So Mike put him in moderation for 24 hours. No big deal and I would have thought a badge of honour for Sean.
Sean hasn’t been banned and can, I imagine, return whenever he wishes. Personally I hope he does. I enjoy his humour. Like David Herdson I haven’t been at the sharp end of Sean’s tongue and might feel differently otherwise.
I also agree that prior to “LyingGate” Sean had been impressive in the ad hominem thing.
I suspect Sean will be back. I would be tempted to lay odds on this happening but risk Sean taking up the odds on bet and putting me out of pocket.
96: More hints than facts but they did the same about Oaten.
103. StJohn - quite right, this is Mike’s site. Which in my book gives no poster - how important they think they are - the right to put pressure on him to change the way it is run for their own benefit. Especially not by filling up thread after thread for days on end with whining, griping and veiled threats.
1) Another good article by Sean Fear. Many thanks! I knew next to nothing about the prospects for the parties in Wales before the article, yet now I feel well informed (absolutely vital when money is involved).
Sublime irony isn’t it? The most Unionist of all the main Parties - the Conservatives - would stand to gain the most politically if Wales and Scotland gained full independence.
2) I’m with Nick Palmer on this one, much as I enjoy and admire seant’s prose. It was getting OTT with the EU Referendum thing, and I say that as someone who wants one!
101. Because it’s wholly irrelevant to the present day. People change their view of the world, and the with it, their belief in the changes necessary to improve it. If Nick was genuinely wanting to get rid of Sean (which in any case didn’t happen - Sean took himself off), he could probably have done it months ago. That he didn’t should suggest that Sean’s presence or absence was not too important to him - which given the provocation involved is to Nick’s credit.
Evening all
I’ve had a couple of run-ins with seanT - he believes passionately in what he writes and while sometimes he treats the English language the same way Freddy Kreuger would use a chainsaw, I respect the power of his beliefs.
However, this site isn’t about him, JackW, NickP or anyone else. It is about whoever happens to be here and wanting to argue/berate/debate or ocasionally talk about betting. At the moment, the pro-Conservative element is in the ascendant - this is a place where they can articulate their frustration and expectation. Every mistake (real or imagined) by their opponents puts them one step nearer the goal which shouldn’t just be about power but about the earnest desire to provide good governance and the more thoughtful Conservatives on here accept, I think, the huge responsibility that brings.
One day this will change - the Conservatives will be in retreat - it is as certain as night following day and had pb.com existed in say 1995-97, that would surely have been the case. One day the pro-Tories will have to defend their Government against a growing band of opposing activists. Let’s see how the Ave Its of this world manage then…
I hope that Mike stays the course with this site and watches it evolve - it will be fascinating for us too.
103. That’s a bet.
I confess I logged on, to see the old site, a couple of hours ago - and have been reading these posts for the last 120 minutes with an increasing sense of weirdness. Not untainted with smugness.
I never realised that leaving a blogforum was like dying but then managing to go to your own funeral to hear the eulogies.
Thanks, guys, I’m flattered.
This is a passing post (honest) but for the record:
1. Mike did not ban me. He moderated me for a day.
2. However, I took exception to this, because all I had done was say bluemoon was “lying”. Bluemoon said “Federalists are deeply disappointed by the Reform Treaty” which to me is so obviously a perversion of the truth no other description but “lie” really applies. I was happy to grant that bluemoon was lying unconsciously, a meaning of the word lie I proved existed, but this wasn’t enough. I was still moderated.
3. I then went into a sulk.
4. Because it seems to me far worse things are said every hour on pb.com. Moreover we are in danger of disappearing up our own selfimportance - this is just a blog, not the Commons. If you can’t call a lie a lie, if you honestly think that is the case, then I think debate is pointless.
5. Can’t remember what point 5 is.
6. Having been away for a while I find I rather like not posting. I was posting too much, I’ve freed up a lot of time, and the subject that really obsesses me at the moment - Europe - obsesses me a bit too much. I was starting to bore myself.
7. Nonetheless I still think Europe is of profound importance. An illustration - the day I disappeared Tyson said he would rather talk about really important topics than Europe, things that really annoyed him like HIPs. HIPs are, of course, a byproduct of EU law.
8. Anyway it’s good to see I got under Nick’s skin enough to make him so luridly happy I have gone. If you can annoy pompous party hacks then you’re doing OK.
9. Talking of which, going away for a few days makes me realise how tedious people like Gabble are. What is the point in coming on here to trot out that life-defeating gibberish? Mike should have a yellow card system for people who make the world slightly less bearable.
10. That’s it! I may be back sooner or later, or never, but for the moment my daughter needs feeding and work is very demanding at the mo, so after tonight I shall retreat again. Best wishes to everyone, even Mark Senior.
11. Enoch Powell???
steve h Frankly, there are few more reasonable people on here than Nick P. Of course, everyone gets fed up with people from time to time, but I suggest Nick is quite accurate that sean t was at times offensive and disruptive. Of course he writes well, and of course he is of the right, which presumably suits a lot of people on here. Personally, I also find his persistent use of europhobe rhetoric annoying. Most people here know that the kind of bigotry thrown around by parts of the press is mostly specious and/ or untrue, but nevertheless, out it comes, courtesy of sean’s keyboard fingers! I know his writing is erudite, and I try to have a sense of humour about it, but sorry, I find it very difficult sometimes!
Just to say, now sean has reappeared, I am off up the pub (NOT because of your reappearance, by the way, Sean!) but a good band there tonight. I will look in later.
You either have SeanT and a load of ranters and dullards or you lose SeanT and hopefully attract back the many posters who were put off by his interminable rude and dull posts
108 - think you’ll find the ‘Ave its’ will be remaining strong and not going anywhere!
I like seanT’s posts. Often don’t agree, but they are well written and clearly argued. Bit like the Telegraph.
Unfortunately, a lot of the stuff put on here, especially about Europe, looks like “the Sun says.”
112 - Surely you should be banned for a post like that, you have no right to insult many posters in those terms. It’s Mike’s site of course but I hope he will do the right thing.
(and no, I won’t give it up until those who have done the same to others admit how petty and ridiculous they have been).
And now the garlands and the regretful tears at the renaissance of the Beast of Bodmin.
OK I have a new idea!
How about no bans (unless really justified) or calls for bans!
I shall now set the example by saying that I am missing Gabble!
After all when the election comes, that will be when the abuse really starts! (oops sorry not really Mike)
Roger, as you never left the site, I’ll put you down as one of the ‘ranters and dullards’;)
Btw, your post was interminably rude and rather dull so be careful what you wish for. Pip Pip
Paul. Your posts are becomming increasingly childish. I make allowances because I can imagine teaching children has that effect. You are never very consistent but your post 39 is sad even by your own standards
112- Maybe, but frankly Roger, PB.com without, at the same time, SeanT AND Andrea AND Jack W is not as funny as it has been.
About disappeared posters, whatever happened to some of the most prolific posters of old like Tabman or Bullseye? E
119 - Mike, it is unacceptable for a poster to call another childish and sad. If roger can’t moderate his language then he really should be given a warning, if not worse.
I’m serious Mike, that sort of thing is unacceptable, maybe roger couldn’t see the irony in my posts which led him to say that but it is, nonetheless stepping over the boundary of acceptability.
103 I suspect Sean will be back
10/10 for prescince!
I see Bolton are slight favourites vs Villa on Sunday - shurely shome mishtake?
What price Clegg defects if he doesn’t win. I seem to remember Iain Dale talking about Clegg as having similar ideas to him, or was it Hulme???, that’s the problem,(with the Lib Dem Election) IMHO, I can’t remember which….
If someone attended a public school and has used their education to good effect yet they castigate others for doing the same does that make them ‘consistent’?
123. MTF - It was Clegg and Iain Dale also said that Huhne (note the spelling) wasn’t much different.
Chris. Bullseye left because he couldn’t post on the same site as SeanT. I don’t know about Tabman. There is nothing wrong with SeanT. I happen to find four out of five of his posts either dull or rants and I’ve no longer got the patience to dredge through those four in order to get to the fifth. He’s by no means the worst in my opinion but he sets the tone and creates the environment for the Steve h’s of this world.
125 exactly.. apologies re spelling…
126 - Roger what part do you think you’ve played in making this site less friendly? Seeing you lecture others is nausea inducing.
I don’t know Max.
129 - Go on have a guess.
130. No please Roger DO keeping providing us with your eminent wit and wisdom. (where’s the bucket?)
109/pt11. Yeah - I trust you to understand the point (which I outlined anyway in the earlier post). It’s certainly not one of abuse, which it could be in another context.
SeanT has been the most entertaining posters on this site - well worth searching for the monika and skipping the Rogers.
129 Roger, you correctly proved practically everyone else wrong when you predicted a substantial (10%) Brown bounce. You were ridiculed, but stuck to your guns.
You also deserve huge credit for admitting that Brown is not the man you thought him to be, and being openly and honestly critical of his policies.
But (and this is a big but), you too often play the man rather than the ball, and despite (or maybe because of) your privileged status in life you do come out with the same “class warrior” claptrap as that other top-rate poster Tyson.
I think that you own ukpaul (one of the better posters to the site IMHO) an apology.
SeanT exercises an important right, the right to free speech. Free Speech does not need Moderation. Moderation is for the vi@gra adds and abuse. That reminds me, what happened to ColinW?
SeanT was moderated for voicing opinion. For SeanT to stay would mean acceptance of approved opinion. Of course, the likes of Roger and Nick Palmer are smug. Socialists believe that all unapproved opinions should be banned.
I thought that was pretty reasonable of Sean, if he could just have the guts to stop spinning that “Stop lying” (direct quote) was anything other than an an insult.
And discussion has been better in the last two days.
Sorry ukpaul, but I don’t see you acknowledging Blue Moon or that he shouldn’t be treated this way in this at all. And BM has been around long enOugh to deserve *some* consideration.
Hi all…it looks as a pretty good night for the Tories in terms of local byelections.
Interesting that the 2 Harlow wards showed swing in different directions…however good for the Tories as they gained the marginal one.
Good LD result in Cumbria. I suppose both Con and LD are happy in Sefton…very bad Labour result there (I think Sefton Central is left with no Lab councillor even if it’s a 10%+ majority…not the most effective CLP or just a seat with lots of marginal wards?).
Ok Labour result in Great Yarmouth due to special circumstances (the Indy candidate is the son of the deceased Lab councillor and the Tories withdrew to support him…considering GY is a marginal consituency, would have not been better to stand and make the party known and visible?)
The only real good Lab result is in Wrexham
Always nice to see a Welsh thread. I’ll try not to bore everyone to death, but a few comments from the inside, as it were. Westminster elections in Wales, with their higher turnouts, are rather duller than Assembly elections, with less potential for off-beam results. There are some interesting factors, though.
As far as Labour goes, the fall-out from May has seen some senior members questioning whether Rhodri Morgan’s old-labour style politics are working, or whether they’re really just shoring up valley seats that should be safe anyway, at the expense of appealing to urban Wales, where Labour seats are vulnerable to the Tories and Lib Dems, and appealing to Welsh-speakers. There’s also a division over further devolution, which opposing parties will hope to exploit.
Plaid’s decision to join the assembly government places the party in unchartered territory. This could have two effects - guilt by association with a govt. having to take difficult decisions in a challenging public spending round, or maybe increased credibility and profile. The Tories have picked up quite well, mainly by trying to appear ‘more Welsh’ - calling for further devolution, new language legislation etc. This strategy may be undermined by three fairly devo-sceptic cornerstone-style MPs though, out of step with Nick Bourne’s leadership in Cardiff but perhaps more accurately reflecting the grass roots. It must be remembered too that in probably half the Welsh constituencies the Tories barely exist. This cost them dear in the assembly poll, when a failure to win more list votes across Wales led to constituency gains being cancelled out. It’ll be less of a problem in an FPTP Westminster election, though. The Lib Dems have big internal issues in Wales. I don’t think I’m being partisan by saying that the machinations in the party after the assembly elections has caused some friction and disillusionment. Mike German is going, but not until next May, much to fellow AM Peter Black’s chagrin. It’s too soon to tell how this all pans out, and they’re still well-organised in pockets.
What does this mean for seats? I agree with most of the original post. Wrexham does now seem safer for Labour than it did. The fact that they no longer control the council helps. The Stansty result yesterday seems particularly poor for the LDs, considering their candidate was the high-profile Bruce Roberts. I don’t know the local circumstances though, so stand ready to be corrected.
The tories will be very hopeful of Aberconwy, despite Betty Williams’s apparent decision to stand again. Carmarthen West and the Vale of Glam too close to call, and reasonably high turnouts should see Labour safe in e.g. Newport West, Vale of Clwyd.
I wouldn’t entirely rule out a surprise gain for the LDs, though it doesn’t help them that they run the council in Swansea West, and in Cardiff, where they failed to make the hoped-for progress in the assembly elections. Maybe Newport East? There are rumours that the tories fancy Brecon and Radnor (though I’d be surprised if it fell). Montgomeryshire could be a big story. Lembit faces a formidable opponent who can make inroads into the ‘anyone but the Tories’ tactical vote which helps the LDs here. It could be overhyped though, so if there’s a betting market on this seat, it could be quite volatile.
As for Plaid, I’m confident that we’ll put the god-awful 2005 behind us. I won’t make any detailed predictions. I’m too close to things in Ceredigion, and have given up on predicting Ynys Mon and its enderingly peculiar politics.
I’ve projected a Labour Majority of 18 based on current polling. If Labour can still get a majority after the negative coverge in the press, the Tories are in real trouble.
Time to bet on a 2008 election and a Labour victory.
http://thepoliticaltipster.wordpress.com/2007/10/26/filtered-polling-data-lab-majority-18/
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/7064591.stm
I have followed a number of forums since the internet took off.
I have watched them flourish with contributions by those of Free Spirit and Original Thought.
I have watched the sites die as those talented contributors are ‘moderated’ to appease baying Socialists.
It is the way of Socialists to drive out talent so they can own and suffocate what is left.
Web Forums have a life cycle.
122. Peter. Yes I even surprised myself with the speed of that one.
Just switched on the telly to see the Breeders Cup is on. I thought it was tomorrow but apparently spans two days this year. Conditions look qatrocious. Too late to put a bet on the first.
Sorry to see Yokel’s money has gone down the tube on La Traviata. My wife is babysitting for some friends tonight who have gone to the opera to see…. La Traviata! Silly coincidence. Good job I was too late to put on a silly coincidence bet at stingy odds.
Regarding Bolton v Villa I’m keeping my powder dry until Villa remember how to defend.