Now Ipsos-Mori reports a one point Labour lead
October 28th, 2007
-
Are we entering the era of Boat Race politics?
The massive monthly face-to-face survey by Ipsos-Mori is out in the Observer this morning and shows that Labour, on 41% have just pipped ahead of the Tories on 40%. The actual figures with comparisons on a telephone survey from a sample of half the size from the same pollster a fortnight ago are CON 40%(-1): LAB 41%(+3): LD 13%(+2).
Looking at today’s figures with the last directly comparable poll, Ipsos-Mori’s September face to face survey of nearly two thousand and we get a real sense of the magnitude of the political earthquake that we’ve experienced over the last few weeks. CON 40%(+9): LAB 41%(-3): LD 13%(-2).
The poll is actually quite old with the fieldwork taking place from October 18th to 23rd - so it started in the middle of the week before last.
The headline voting intention questions are based solely on those “certain to vote”. The findings from the other questions in the poll are based on all the responses - so include the views of a large number of people who have little or not intention of taking part in the democratic process. For this reason I tend to attach to them much less importance.
There has been a big change in the net satisfaction ratings of the two main leaders- something that we saw in Friday’s numbers from the YouGov panel. Brown has moved from plus 18% to minus 1% while Cameron has gone from -22% to minus 2%.
The paper describes the poll ushering in a “new era of ‘boat race’ politics in which Labour and the Tories are almost neck-and-neck.”
We’ll have to see what the October surveys for ComRes and ICM, where the fieldwork has been carried out this weekend, come up with. Unlike Ipsos-Mori both these pollsters apply weighting based on how respondents said they voted in 2005. This has the effect of depressing Labour levels because for some reason many more Labour supporters seem ready to answer the randomised unsolicited phone calls from polling firms than supporters of other parties.
Mike Smithson
MessageSpace Advertising
because for some reason many more Labour supporters seem ready to answer the randomised unsolicited phone calls from polling firms than supporters of other parties
As I’ve argued before, this is because last figure randomisation is insufficient given differential ex-directory rates and that phone numbers are allocated in blocks.
For a second I was worried there until I saw the change figures on the comparable poll.
When’s ICM out?
As Bob Worcester said, we should look at the levels of support rather than the lead to get an idea of how the Parties are doing:
Con: Very good - holding on to their support level in the forties.
Lab: Astoundingly good, given recent issues.
LD: Poor and in line with other pollsters, suffering hard from the third party squueze that has been predicted.
I’ve said before (I think) that we may well see what would have happened in the 1992-1997 period in the absence of the ERM debacle. It will be interesting.
Due to a certain word, one of my posts is awating moderation, (its nothing scurrilous) but if you can’t wait, see the political story of the year in today’s MoS. It could decide the next GE.
http://tinyurl.com/3yb7f4
3. It would be interesting to see how much of all the recent changes are due simply to increased certainty to vote, and how much due to inter-party switching. I assume this can be done from the underlying data.
LOL coldstone, are you serious? You think that would actually lose the guy a single vote?
Story is the lead in the Observer.
4. Definitely. Severe pressure being put on Gisela Stuart to demonstrate her loyalty.
Sorry to go off-topic right from the start, but we’ve been getting more annoyingly noisy advertising appearing here again. Those crashing sounds from the “Is your marketing ending up in the bin?” ads may not be as disturbing as the Jeffrey Archer voices we had a while back, but they’re still pretty obnoxious.
You can get relief from these inconsiderate advertisers by redirecting their domain to a non-existent server. Just add this open your “hosts” file in a text editor (Notepad or whatever) and add this line:
127.0.0.1 messagespace.advertserve.com
On a Mac or Linux, your hosts file lives at /etc/hosts, and on Windows it’s in one of the following places:
C:\WINDOWS\system32\drivers\etc\hosts
C:\WINNT\system32\drivers\etc\hosts
After which, satisfyingly, all _their_ marketing will by ending up in the bin.
I am very pleased today that Chris Huhne has announced he will break with the current LD party policy and scrap the expensive anachronism that is Trident.
http://politics.guardian.co.uk/libdems/story/0,,2200746,00.html
This I am sure will go down well with the majority of LD party members and give him a boost in the leadership contest.
IMO the big story of the day is the news that you now have to post a letter before 11am on a Saturday for it to get there before Tuesday.
8 - Why don’t you turn off the sound on your computer?
7 what has Gisela Stuart to do with DC’s joke referenced at 4…am I missing something?
6
I think I may be joking!!
Lets be honest, the lead story in the Sunday Times, will put politics very much on the back burner, for the next few days.
12 - “German-born Labour MP Gisela Stuart said yesterday: “This is typical hypocrisy from David Cameron, saying one thing in public and another in private. It just shows how untrustworthy he is.”“
[4] Surely DC was just speaking plain common sense. If the Arts Council gives too many grants to one-legged Lithuanian l*sb*ans, they won’t have any money left over for obese Estonian sheep-sh*gg*rs…
4 “Bottler” will be more likely to have a lasting effect in the mind of voters IMHO
14 ok sorry, missed it
15 - lol
We don’t do the ‘country is heading in the right/wrong direction’ polls routinely, as the Americans do, but I’ve been struck in talking on doorsteps by the number of people who say “Things are not bad at the moment, really”. The less ‘political’ they are, the more they tend to say that. They don’t all vote Labour as a result, but it makes the task of the opposition parties harder. Because Tories tend to talk to other Tories who think that the Government is rubbish, Brown is a monster and everything is going to pot, they infer a level of general outrage that isn’t actually out there.
If furthe rpolls confirm that the big parties are virtually tied, it’s likely to affect the media narrative for a bit: the press likes to ring the changes, so the theme may change from “Labour in disarray” to “Tory recovery stalls”.
The big unknown is the impact of the new LibDem leader (which we’ll know when?). If he has a good start, I do think it will affect the Tories more. Because of the variations in message from Cameron over the last 18 months, people aren’t really sure what to make of him, and the Tory vote has a lot of people who are simply a bit bored and irritated with Labour and haven’t seen the LDs as a reasonable alternative for a while. Clegg, if he’s the nominee, looks fairly well-placed to get some of this back. But it’s likely to be difficult - people are increasingly seeing the next election as a two-horse race and (in a leisurely and detached sort of way) choosing their sides.
That’s amazingly good for Labour. Sure, I treat this figures as much less reliable than ICM. But the key thing here is the like-for-like comparison with previous MORI polls … I expected Lab to be mid 30s.
19 - Alternatively the anti-Tory vote may be coalescing around Labour because the LibDems are useless. Who knows?
The press is not going to be able to convincingly argue either party is struggling when they are above 40%. There is only so much any party can do to enhance their own position. The rest depends on the opposition.
As inferred above, a lot depends on where and why all this extra support is appearing.
19 LOL Nick , people are increasingly seeing the next election as a 2 horse race and in a leisurely and detached way chose their sides . Meanwhile when they have to vote in real elections they still vote LibDem . The new LibDem leader will not be known till mid December .
Cautious as ever about reading too much into a single poll, however the Mori one does seem to fit into a pattern, we will have to wait and see the results of the other two polls Mike mentions.
From a labour perspective a level of around 38% - 41% seems very satisfactory given the tribulations and cockups of the past few weeks, it suggests that labour’s support base is very solid. Bob Worcester’s point about looking at levels of support rather than the notional lead is worth reiterating. Also given the vagaries of the electoral system at present, if labour get approx 40% then it is very difficult to envisage any other result than labour with the largest number of seats almost certainly a majority (though the methodology is questionable, the various election predictors all suggest labour with or very near to a majority with a level of support 38%+ unless you assume the libs fall to currently unthinkable levels).
For the tories whilst on the surface these figures are good they do not, as noted above, suggest an election winning position. The assumption is also that the improvement in the figures over the past few weeks has come largely from LD switchers. Whilst I am sure they would not be unhappy with this two points are relevant. The new LD leader is likely to make some difference simply by the publicity they will receive though whether this will make a long term difference remains to be seen. The libs do seem to pick up voters during an election campaign again simply because of the greater exposure they receive which in current circumstances are more likely to come from the tories than labour. If these points are correct the tory position, given that we are mid term, is not particularly strong.
We are a long way from an election and much can and will change in the interim but it is labour who seem to have the strongest hand. DC’s biggest point is the traditional “time for a change” yet by the time of the election he will not seem like the new kid on the block anymore rather a fixture in the political firmanent. The LD’s under whoever have a real problem, many of their MPs are vulnerable to a tory advance and they will struggle to prove their relevance in a closely contested two party race.
bring back sean.
Nick; if you think leader attributes matter (I don’t, learned my lesson on that during the bounce) then Cameron’s are soaring and Brown’s are plunging.
I’m waiting to see icm and comres.
Alex perhaps it is the anti-Labour vote coalescing around the Tories.
19: or more likely the dramatic drop in Brown’s approval etc will begin to feed into voting intensions. Unless ICM shows Labour well ahead I cant see the media narrative changing as easily as you think/hope. I think it might take Brown giving Dave a roasting at PMQs to do that. And there is no sign of that happening.
A remarkable poll result for NuLabour.If the conservatives continue to get such low ratings then the”Old Etonian” cabal’s days must surely be numbered.
I am amazed that there are no rumblings from the “Cameron must go”camp.
I have to go Liverpool to watch Arsenal nick another 3 points on their way to the Premiership title. A safe bet for those with any loose change left.
4 GOM As hat story is in the Mail it will probably gain Cameron support.
Interesting that the Labour disinformation and spin operation has clearly been dismantled by Brown.
PS that last sentence is irony. Or maybe sarcasm.
26 - That’s what Nick said. That’s why i said, “who knows”? This whole thread is just people making random speculation with little proper argument.
Why should LibDems take votes from the Tories, for example, in such a way that will help Labour? They are unlikely to do so in Con/Lab seats which only leaves Con/Lib seats - which by definition has no relevance to Labour. I wish people would spend less time thinking about simple percentages of the vote, and more about Parliamentary arithmetic (beyond simply “plugging numbers into the calculators”)
24 and others, Bob W’s answers didn’t impress me much, I’m afraid, and gave some depths to why I don’t rate Mori like other pollsters.
I asked why polls consistently understate the Tory share in real elections despite weighting to correct it.
He replied it was a myth.
It was then pointed out that this effect has been consistent in all recent GE’s.
So he says some voters make up their mind on polling day. OK - but if that *always* represents a 1, 1.5% swing to Con, why not weight for that?
31 - Everyone’s an expert.
19 Nick we’ll see with next polls.
Note you are continuing the Cameron flip flop narrative. There was discussion on Pb.com back in July that the Brown Bounce was in part because he came across quite differently from the Cameron/Osborne Block to Reform, moody, control freak. Public saw him for first time in PM role and (helped by a quite fawning media) rejected that narrative.
IMHO the same happened at time of Conservative Conference; Cameron held his nerve, showed real leadership and gave a confident speech - public which had only been seeing him through the prism of Brown and Brown’s success saw that narrative as untrue and responded favourably.
Some of Brown’s less attractive character traits were then exposed in his reaction to the Cameron Comeback. These haven’t damaged Labour’s poll ratings but have damaged his, but we don’t know yet whether this is short term or not.
What the two bounces did though was squeeze the LDs and the undecideds - despite the talk of no difference between the two major parties IMO the public perceive a very real difference and thus are pushed to make a choice. This is in part due to the very different characters of Cameron and Brown which now Brown has to wait until 2009, will mean this difference in the character of leadership will be stark - unlike the Cameron v Blair situation where on the surface there was much in common. Will the public choose Heathcliffe or Darcy?
We have had an interesting few months of polling, with more to come.
-The Brown bounce.
-The Cameron revival.
-The election that never was.
-The end of Ming.
-A Labour revival.
-A new LD leader in December
I think the last one will be a very important period. Ming may have been unspun, but he was so un-media savvy. I gather he had to be forced and cajoled into making TV appearances at interview, and he was invariably ill-prepared once of his pet topics. Partly his fault; partly that of his minders, perhaps.
Neither Clegg nor Huhne would be as analogue. What ever their policies, they will be more visible and gain the LDs more exposure. They will jump at the chance to give a soundbite on TV, not shy away.
The net result? LD poll ratings will not stabilise at 11-13%. They will move one way or the other, probably upwards.
33 - “Will the public choose Heathcliffe or Darcy?” I really can’t tell which is which in terms of Brown and Cameron.
I guess you mean Cameron, the former Lamont acolyte, is Heathcliffe, but I can’t really see Brown as much of a Darcy.
This poll was taken from 18th to 23rd. The last one with the 3% Tory lead was 22nd to 24th. So they really should have come out in reverse order. What would the “narrative” have been then ?
“for some reason many more Labour supporters seem ready to answer the randomised unsolicited phone calls from polling firms than supporters of other parties.” LOL
Labour voters are more helpful and public spirited than Conservatives, who spend their lives engaged in profit-seeking activities to enrich only themselves. If only Tories would stop working all the time , stay at home and draw on social security payouts, the country could keep Gordon Brown as PM indefinitely. The Red Flag could fly from every building in the land.
Another two years of stories like these might have a real effect.
First, Labour wasting taxpayers’ money.
“According to figures un-earthed by the Conservatives, Defra spent £140?million on consultants in 2002-3, reaching £290 million in 2006-7. It has spent £1.1 billion since 2002.
The bill is three times the amount the Environment Agency spent on building flood defences last year, despite warnings of severe weather that culminated in the this year’s disastrous downpours.”
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2007/10/28/ndefra128.xml
Crime is falling, I tell you:
“Police recorded 5,023 serious knife crimes in England and Wales in the first three months after they began to count the offences as a separate crime category last spring. It is equivalent to about 400 offences per week….. equivalent to one offence every 24 minutes or more than 21,000 over a full year.”
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2007/10/28/nknife128.xml
36 but when was the fieldwork for the 3% lead poll done?
It certainly is an old poll, a week and a half. Of correspondingly limited relevance - we need a more current snapshot from mori.
Being serious, (difficult I know) about the MoS story, it was the fact that the Mail played this straight. Still no sign that the Mail group have really warmed to Cameron.
Both the Observer, (understandable) and the Telegraph, (D’Ancona) run what you might call, pro-Brown pieces, perhaps rowing back from the harsh criticism after, ‘The election-that-never-was’.
Looks like Dacre is paying back Brown with TWO anti-Cameron stories in todays MoS. The Lithuanian one and another piece on his wife’s business career. Anyone ever read anything in the Mail about Mrs Brown’s fallout with her PR Company? Answer not in the Mail.
Sun. Telegraph has a new angle on the Purnell fake photo’s with emails revealing that it was all clearly a stunt about which the people emailed him. The Ali Campbell rule is that a story that lasts two Sundays = end of Minister.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2007/10/28/npurnell128.xml
Elsewhere a piece praising Brown in the Sun. Telegraph, the achilles heel of Cameron are the main 4 centre right newspapers.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/opinion/main.jhtml?xml=/opinion/2007/10/28/do2801.xml
If FR is right Mike should update the main story.
I hope I am right: all the info came from Mike’s posts in the first place.
19 amazinbg bit of spin from NP MP. nothing like trotiing out a bit of party mantra./ Having said that I am amazed at the Labour score. I’m, not coinvinced about The Tories being hurt more…… but we shall see.
36
The narrative would have been the same, Labour has been wading deep in s**t and still recording 38/41%, that is the story!
You’d expect the main opposition party to have a lead, you are surprised when it is not further ahead, not, as is the case, neck-and-neck with a third term government.
What would be useful to read from the Lib Dem supporters on here is how will this move by Huhne against Trident play with the Lib Dem members. We have had a lack of policy differences between the two challengers up until now.
A large vocal core are clearly anti-Trident but what % of Members do they represent? When faced with the Trident vote at Conference their problem was that a vote against the Leadership’s proposed policy was a vote against a Leadership under seige. Did the loyalty card come into play and the activists backed Ming?
Now that Ming has gone, the Trident matter could become one of personal conviction. The anti-Trident members may also have a higher propensity to vote than others. 25% of members could become 40% of LD voteing members.
I think the troubles for Brown have been all of the Opposition’s making so far (with a little help from himself). When the “events” start to kick in I imagine he will be in big trouble.
37 Is the reason why Labour voters are more more willing to talk on the phone that they are more gullible?
47 I agree - I see this as a key move by Huhne.
49 should refer to 46
40 GOM Ancona is pro-Brown? I think not. He certainly tries to be balanced and a serious commentator, but he is the Editor of the Spectator. And in his sensible article today he says:
“Mr Brown’s impressive lecture on liberty at the University of Westminster on Thursday was an extended book review ……The price of this (Brown) ambition will be high, however: very high in some cases. The Government has yet to confront the rising tide of English identity, or resolve the West Lothian Question….. How would the Bill of Rights and Responsibilities interact with the troublesome Human Rights Act (which the Tories would scrap)? Indeed, how will both documents relate to the Charter of Fundamental Rights enshrined in the EU Reform Treaty? Ministers keep saying that the EU Charter creates no new rights, and yet the Foreign Office’s own lawyers concede that its impact will be unknowable until it reaches the courts. And we have not even mentioned ID cards, or “the management of identity” as Mr Brown put it rather coyly in his speech.”
Yes Labour’s share is holding up well but the fallout from the sub-prime crisis hasn’t yet filtered through to the high-street. It’s unlikely that there will be more benign economic conditions at any point over the next two years so I regard Labour’s share here as a ceiling.
It wouldn’t surprise me to see a poll with the Tories around 50% before the next election.
PLEASE NOTE - I’ve now moved our server clock back - but it could mean that posts appear oddly ordered for the next hour.
45: Would you? Why is that?
When a party in power changes its leader usually it gets a long bounce in the pollls.
19 Nick Palmer “Because Tories tend to talk to other Tories who think that the Government is rubbish, Brown is a monster and everything is going to pot, they infer a level of general outrage that isn’t actually out there.”
No, what is being said “out there” is that Brown is Indecisive. As spelled out in the recent YouGov poll. Did you not hear that on the doorstep? I do.
19 “Things are not bad at the moment, really”. they infer a level of general outrage that isn’t actually out there.
Labour spin.
things are very bad and people are deeply cheesed off at:- the fact that they can’t get a dentist due to Labour incompetence, their hospitals are closing due to labour incompetence, 10s of thousands of prisoners are being released early due to labour incompetence, peoples tax bills are higher due to Labour arrogance and incompetence. Transport is a joke due to Labour incompetence, etc etc etc. The only thing Labour are good at is spin therefore Nick does the only thing he can when faced with the reality he denies or avoids it.
Brown’s bounce came mainly at the cost of the Lib dems, so a new lib dem leader will indeed remove that bounce which is desperate to protest at the government but can’t bring itself to vote conservative. For Nick Palmer etc this is the real worry which is why they constantly tell us about the tories losing votes under the new lib dem leader we shall see but given the awful record of this government and a credible lib dem leader I think Nick and chums will be the ones losing support especially if as Clegg appears he wants to side with the government.
Sorry to bang on, but is this actually the Tories increasing one, from this earlier Mori poll to the later 3% lead, or declining one? Are Labour closing the gap or is it widening?
I realise the numbers are small either way but can someone clarify please? Which poll is older?
40 The MoS seems riven by pro and anti Cameron camps - saw in the published copy last week (visiting family who had bought the rag) one of the most personal and in many ways vile chip on the shoulder attacks I have read on Cameron (even Tyson would have blanched). Dacre is certainly still supporting Brown where he can.
51 What irritated me with Ancona story was that he was praising Brown’s intellect because Brown & Ancona agree on 56 or 90 day detention - as the rest of the article shows there was a lot of recycled political theory cast around as a veil to hide in it’s centre the very authoritarian real actions Brown intends to take. It’s the language of 1984, talk of liberty to remove freedom. Ancona (and Murdoch) think 90 day detention is the touchstone by which to judge a politicians grasp of the issue of islamist terrorism - don’t support that and you are a Al Qaeda dupe.
Simon Jenkins sums it up in the Times “If Brown really wants to import into public life the ethics of Calvin and Knox, he has an uphill road ahead of him. He talks liberal on constitutional change yet he shirks the detail, ….The reason, it has become increasingly clear, is that Britain’s new prime minister is all mouth and no muscle. “
Is anybody having problems getting on to Anthony Wells Polling Report site?
it’s = its (hope Lynne Truss isn’t reading this )
51 I think D’ancona is deeply authoritarian and takes it as a given like Brown that longer detention = better, ID cards = good. That is about as deeply as D’ancona goes into it. There is of course no argument that will withstand even a moments scrutiny for either policy. The only reason Brown is in favour of 90 days is it is populist, and the only reason he wants ID cards is because he believes he can get a greater degree of control and interference in peoples every day lives, can do favours for his friends in the IT industry and can then sell on the details to the banks etc for profit (to spend on more spin doctors in all liklihood).
49 - Given that the tories can be way ahead in the polls and still not have a majority, voting for Clegg would be suicidal politics given his recent comments. As we keep being told, the best chance of a hung parliament (and the leverage that comes with it) is for the tories to be ahead. If Clegg focuses on Cameron then all that will happen is that he gifts labour a bigger majority.
Huhne’s comments that he would want PR in return for coalition shows that tactically he is far ahead, given that he also appears to be more in touch with the grassroots his chances of winning can only improve.
As someone who was happy voting for the left leaning Kennedy party I wouldn’t be particularly enthused by a tory-lite party, if I was going to switch to the real one then I would have done so already. I like Cameron because he’s bringing the tories in my direction (and Brown not because he’s taking labour further away), if the lib dems move away as well I may as well vote green (I often do in EU elections anyway).
Both Clegg and Huhne look like they have no idea about how to dig the Lib Dems out of their current rut. They are both concentrating on sending signals to various groups within their own party, with nothing to enthuse the voters at large.
New thread - Has Huhne found the weapon to beat Clegg?
Matt J October 28th, 2007 at 10:36 am - The sub-prime crisis is already biting….
A company based in Kettering announced 50 redundancies during the last week, because of Northern Rock cutting back on business. You have to feel sorrow at the plight on someone losing their job a month before Christmas. (Is there any good time to lose your job?)
62 that’s because they need to get those folk to elect them dealing with the rest of the world comes when one of them has won! However I think they will struggle with the world at large but then I am prejudiced!
More snouts in the trough:
QUOTE
BARBARA FOLLETT, the Labour minister and wife of millionaire novelist Ken Follett, has claimed more than £120,000 in MPs’ allowances to pay for a London home, while owning a buy-to-let flat in the capital.
Follett last year claimed £22,107 in expenses for a central London flat bought by her husband seven years ago. But it was confirmed last week that she owns another flat near the houses of parliament that she could have used instead.
The MP also has the use of the family home in Hertfordshire, less than a 30-minute rail commute from London. The use of public funds to effectively subsidise an extra London home for the Folletts - who are together worth more than £15m - has prompted new calls for a review of the controversial housing allowance.
Matthew Elliott, of the TaxPayers’ Alliance, said: “This is extraordinary. It’s wrong that Barbara Follett should be claiming this money for another home when she already has a flat she could be using for parliamentary duties.”
A spokesman for Follett would not comment on why the cost to the public purse of the central London flat was so high. He said it was not practical for her to live in the other flat, which she could claim expenses on if she lived there.
62 - It’s a leadership election, Henri. The whole point is to appeal to various groups within your own party. Honestly, I despair about the standard of posting on this site nowadays.
Iran again (sorry)!
I see the coming Iranian war as a great opportunity for the LibDems to regain votes as both main parties say they will support a strike.
Now there are some interesting follow ons.
If we believe an independent nuclear deterrent works, WE (UK) should not worry about Iran having nukes. They should not attack us… or we will retaliate.
Or is the Independent deterrent a waste of time and money?
I suspect whichever way it goes, the future of Trident and the LibDems may stand and fall on Iran.
I’ve now moved our server clock back - but it could mean that posts appear oddly ordered for the next hour.
It is actually very rare for the lead to change hands in the boat race after the initial exchanges (although it has happened a couple of times recently). So it is fascinating to me that people use the term all the time to refer to an oscillating situation.