Tories take 8% lead with ComRes
October 29th, 2007
..and a boost for the Lib Dems
According to Ben Brogan of the Daily Mail tomorrow’s ComRes poll in the Independent will give the Tories an 8% lead.
The shares, with changes on last month, are reported to be CON 41% (+7): LAB 33% (-3): LD 16% (nc)
ComRes operates like Populus and ICM and weights by both past vote and certainty to vote. Its past vote formula has been less favourable to Labour than the other two.
These figures will come as a mighty relief to the Lib Dems - especially as the first surveys after the dispatch of Ming still had them at 11%.
The real significance in the main party battle is even with the Lib Dem share holding up it is Labour that is taking the hit.
On the spread markets I’ve just sold Labour at £40 a seat at 296 seats and have bought the Tories at £25 a seat at 273.4 seats.
Mike Smithson
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Excellent poll for the Tories and bad for Labour. Perhaps the weekend YouGov poll was a false dawn, and the true picture for Labour will be far bleaker?
This poll confirms recent local election results showing Labour poll support was froth and never turned into real votes when voters had to go out and vote . I suspect that in the next few months the polls will trend back to what they were in the early part of this year .
I must admit I’m a little surprised by the poll results - I had expected a drift back to Labour after the tumult of the non-election call faded into the background, rather than a further strengthening of the Conservative position.
Even so, the last two polls have produced markedly different results and not ones that even lie within a 3% margin of error each way, so at least one of them is ‘out’. ICM to be the tie-breaker?
Com Res have tended to be high on LD and low on Lab. So we will have to see what the “regular” polls like ICM report.
I did wonder if the Mori one at the weekend would turn out to be an outlier because of its methods and date.
Rather than a boat race I expect the Conservatives to maintain a 5 to 10 point gap over the next few months because Brown’s Govt contains the seeds of its own destruction. The Opposition are consistently setting the agenda.
3 David
I generally follow Bob Worcester’s line of looking at the absolute rather than the lead, especially wrt the Conservatives. This seems to be another poll with the Conservatives at 40+ so in that sense I don’t think it is markedly different. The Labour/LibDem numbers are to a degree fungible at the constituency level.
If this result is repeated elsewhere then it means the Brown bounce is over and we are back at the position we were before the May locals. The bloodletting within Labour ranks in such a scenario will be wildly entertaining - defections, rebellions, plots, chicken runs - expect the lot. There are no more rabbits to pull out of the hat.
3 Remember the polls turned before the non-election - that’s why it was a non.
Could have been election day Thursday, wouldn’t we Tories have been happy if it had been and if this poll had just come out …
7: relax Ted we’ve got 2 years of fun to look forward now.
3.This may be a daft idea, but could the holiday season with dates varying throughout the UK have any impact on this or the last couple of polls?
According to Electoral Calculus, this would give the Tories a 2 seat majority.
Just shows how high the bar is for them.
8 Should the polls stay anything like this, make that two and a half years of fun.
The UK Polling Report swingometer gives the following seats on this poll result:
Conservative 41% 323 seats (+125)
Labour 33% 270 seats (-86)
Liberal Democrats 16% 28 seats (-34)
Others 10% 11 seats (-1)
Northern Ireland 18 seats (nc)
That would result in a NOC parliament.
It seems that the Tories are especially damaged by a well-performing LibDem party.
9 Polls which weight to past vote should not be influenced by holiday seasons .
4 Com Res are a bit harsher on weighting than ICM for LibDems and on average give a 1.5-2 % lower rating .
11 So who is the likely replacement for Gordon Brown as Labour leader
When I saw the Mori poll over the weekend, my gut feel was that something was not quite right, I could not believe with all the bad karma that Gordo and co had suffered over the last three weeks that Labour could possibly be on 41%
An anticipated post from Gabble, the high jump bar might be high, but I suspect that Labour will fail the test three times and be eliminated from the contest (effectively anyway).
As A Tory, I am very happy with this poll, but we must not be complacent. We have to reinforce the multiple failings and lack of ideas from New Labour. Onwards and hopefully upwards. .. oh and Gabble , dont believe seat calculators, they are probably as prone to error as polls.
12 a well-performing Lib Dem party - with just 16% of the vote and their seats more than halved. are you kidding?
re 9 There could be something in that Chris. It’s is known that poll results during holiday periods can get distorted and both Ipsos-Mori and YouGov might have been affected.
The ComRes poll and the ICM survey that is also expected would have been carried out from Friday - Sunday.
It’s pretty pathetic that the Independemt rely on Electoral Valculus for their seat predictions/ You would have thought that they would make some effort to produce their own more sophisticatted mode;.
15. I agree this is a good poll for the Tories but they should see it as a starting point rather than the finishing line.
They will need to be going into the next election with a good 12% to 15% lead to be confident of an overall majority.
7. That’s true, though they turned even more afterwards. I was really thinking of that whole episode with the Iraq visit and everything else as a single ‘event’, although I’d admit that I didn’t quite end up writing that (serves me right for trying too hard to get in early on the string!).
I think Paul M / Bob Worcester’s method of looking at absolute figures has a good deal to commend it, though of course it’s not the whole story. For about 12 years the Conservatives had a ceiling of 33% and were often well under that; Cameron has clearly broken through it and sustained levels well in excess of anything any other Tory leader has managed since John Major’s first couple of years. 42-43% was enough to win each of the four elections and probably would be again. On that basis, he’s still short of where he needs to be - there’ll be a falling off from the leading party as the election approaches because there always is.
It’s also pretty clear from the way the polls have moved about in the last two years (never mind the last two months), that the top seven or eight per cent of the Tory vote is fairly soft. Labour can hope to get it back if they start performing. After all, the economy is still the biggest card in the pack and it’s still in Labour’s hand - though its value might not be quite what it once was. Interesting times ahead.
19 - they will not need anything like a 12-15% lead.
21. Really! What lead do you think they would need going into the election?
If the previous polls suggesting that the Tories are doing much better in the marginals than overall are right, then this lead would produce a majority of more than 2.
10 “Just shows how high the bar is for them”
You’re quite right Gabble, but any further increase in the Tory % of the vote and Labour’s seats fall like nine pins!
I’m off to watch Panorama now and the very worrying conviction of Barry George for the murder of Jill Dando.
Typical Gabble, What is needed is Labour on 30 to 32 or less, thats meltdown time (ish)???
14 Jest ye not!
Poor old Quentin Davies; Look before you leap…
10. Yes but a further 2% swing Lab to Con (Con 43 Lab 31 LD 16) gives them a projected calculus majority of 72. It obviously isn’t that straightforward but in terms of this Labour cannot afford to lose anymore support.
25. I’ve fed a 10% lead into UK Polling Report with Labour on 32% and it gives the Tories a 28 seat majority - hardly meltdown.
29
Gabble,tell that to Gordo when he had a 69 seat majority…
I think I mentioned b4 not to rely on seat calculators, they might be fun, but swing isnt uniform, and if the marginals reflect this it IS meltdown.
Gabble,
Bear in mind that the Electoral Calculus prediction for the 2005 election on the basis of the eve-of-election polls was for a Labour majority of 132.
A Tory lead of 7-8% would represent a decisive rejection of Labour by the electorate. The swings to the Tories would be magnified in the marginal/battleground seats and they would gain many more due to a significant decline in anti-Tory tactical voting. History shows that parties on the rise gain votes under FPTP where they need them.
29 There was an article last year (wish I could remember which psephologist and where) which stated that if Labour’s share dropped below 32%/33% there would be a meltdown - cast doubt on the current models and assumptions which haven’t been tested in low Labour vote circumstances.
Does anyone know over what period the poll was taken?
One of the most interesting things will be Labour’s reaction, if they get a continued stream of negative polls after what they perceive to be only a Cameron post Conference bounce.
With the Conservatives making all of the policy headway, and Gordon Brown having little better to say than that he wishes to set out his “vision” for Britian (without saying what it is!!), the whole picture seems eerily like 1993 was for the Conservatives.
Labour have lost the political initiative and they won’t get it back easily.
Are the wheels beginning to come off?
http://news.sky.com/skynews/article/0,,91211-1290666,00.html?f=rss
In the words of that great Labour supporter Alex Ferguson
‘It’s squeakie bum time Gordon’
Of interest what level of polls would put pressure on the two Leaders? Here are my suggestions.
Labour under 30%. Because Tony rarely went lower than 30%.
Conservatives under 33%. Because that their 2005 score.
6.”If this result is repeated elsewhere then it means the Brown bounce is over and we are back at the position we were before the May locals”
In the 12 months before the locals the average shares were on ICM Con 38,Lab32,Lib20.Labour is on Com Res nearly back down to this level, Tories 42%.With a little le 2 point boost if there is agood leadership contest in terms of media coverage then ICM polls by December could be around Con 40% Lab 34 Lib 18%
RogerH
I think that it is important to state that if there was going to be a bad poll for Labour then it was going to be ComRes. Since switching to past vote weighting at the start of the year the pollster has been consistently the worst for Labour.
Let’s see what ICM have in store. Their October poll for the Guardian took place at the weekend as well and my guess is that it will show a Tory lead of 5-6%.
35
I tend to agree but “events dear boy events”. I find it hard to understand the froth in the stock market given what I perceive as problems ahead(and lots of them). If Gordo(Darling) has to borrow even more money, things could get rally nasty, and his jibe about the 6 billion black hole(a questionable assumption at the best) will look like pocket money.
30. There are hardly any examples of a government with a working majority being kicked out and replaced with a different party, which has a working majority of its own. 1970 is just about the only one in the last hundred years if you exclude 1945 which was wholly exceptional in a great many ways. While that’s partly fortuitous (Blair would have won big whether or not Major had kept a meaningful majority), the chances of it happening now are even lower because of the size of the middle ground. Realistically, gaining seats is difficult, especially when the network on the ground is thin. Reference back a few days to our discussion on the Lib Dem leadership contenders’ own seats.
Gabble,
As to what level of need the Tories would need, my guess is that a lead of 5% on an ICM eve-of-election poll, with the Tories absolute level over 40% would see Cameron in Number 10 with a majority government.
re 24 I’m glad I’m not the only one!
41 Historically maybe, but (ok I’m parisan) but I see this Govt as seen for what it is, devoid of ideas, full of spin, spending money like water, taxing us to the hilt, and for what?? In the end the electors are going to want to see guaranteed results. If they dont………………….
re 42 normally I think Gabble talks complete rot, but he’s being sensible here. The number of Tory seats is entirely dependent on the LDs support. If they’re approaching 20% at the next general election then the Tories haven’t a hope.
36 - jfsl
I think it’s early days to say that the wheels are beginning to come off, but I think that the worm has turned. It was said a long time ago that Nu-Labour would go out with the contempt of the British people. They desperately need to recapture support quickly and offer nothing more than the Big State ideology, which may have worked in the past, but is now being seen through by an increasingly aware electorate. Also their power base is declining. In large swathes of Middle England where Labour used to be in control in local Government, they don’t even seem to be able to find Candidates, far less Councillors.
When the activist base withers, it is extremely hard to replace! Whichever Party you are talking about. When your ideological base withers as well, you have problems!!
45,
Chris A,
If the Tories are over 40% with a 5% lead over Labour, the LDs are unlikely to be approaching 20%.
If the 3-party vote share is similar to last time (92% between them), then the LDs would be about 15%.
If they do claw back votes from the “Others” (probably not directly but due to churn), the distribution of such votes would be equally likely to help the Tories.
46. I do like to ask ‘probing’ questions sometimes
;o)
More seriously if the Conservatives can hold at just above 40% and Labour continue to sit in the low 30’s will this influence the Libdem leadership contest and their future strategy?
Playing around with the Calculus figures if Labour do badly the Libdems could save the majority of their seats or perhaps even in extreme circumstances even gain some?
Again all this is caveated by the fact I am playing around with electoral calculators and it is not the same as a real election.
36 posted on that earlier before another U Turn! Interesting from this is it appears you have a ministry & presumably Sect of State trying to get a policy included in the Climate Change Treaty against the wishes of Mr Brown.
Brown’s side briefed the Mail last week it was dead, even as the ministry had the press releases ready saying the opposite. Then a week later the policy is suddenly back in the PR about the bill, then a couple of hours later they are rushing around trying to clarify again.
It’s not just that it looks messy but that it looks as though Hilary Benn is managing to miss those 6 am calls and trying to strike out independently.
I’ve missed Ben Brogan!
Don’t take so many holidays Ben.
Its hard to see Labour as low as 28%(if my memory serves me correctly) as they were with Michael (dufflecoat) Foot and all the internal wrangling that was going on. So low 30’s is my guess is about as low as it gets. What does need to be considered as I have posted before, that if The Labour vote stays v low, then there is no doubt that Labour MP’s will go native to try and protect their seats. If this were to happen,then things would become very difficult for Gordon Brown.
49. Early leadership bid d’ya think?
;o)
49 Climate Change Bill (not treaty - that word is just sticking in my mind for some reason)
40 Perhaps , all those buying shares and pushing the FTSE towards a record level don’t see the problems through your biased eyes . I recall one Conservative poster on here predicting a stock market crash by the end of October . I hope your investments over the past few years have ignored the constant doom and gloom voices from your party .
Is that multi-picture of Chameleon’s hair blowing all over the shop designed to point out that he’s rapidly heading Haguewards in the hirsuity department - or the exact opposite?
44. I think you might be letting your hopes get in the way of the reality on the ground. There are various things that will keep the number of Labour seats up:
- the lie of the land. Labour needs fewer votes to win the same number of seats as the Tories (actually, that’s not true as such - it’s just that the Conservatives will pile up larger majorities in the safest seats making it effectively if not technically true)
- Government spending. You complain about being taxed but the money is going out the other end and generating a nice client base both in the public sector and with those receiving tax credits and the like (when they work).
- Incumbency. Sitting MPs get big allowances to publicise their work and office costs paid for by the taxpayer (which I know is non-electiony, but it takes part of the cost away from money which can then be spent campaigning). Sitting MPs also get far more coverage in the local media than their opponents.
- The economy. It might crash in the next couple of years but it probably won’t. If it doesn’t, Labour will have governed over 12-13 years of growth. That will look good even if a lot has to do with global trends (and to be fair, it’s not all down to that).
- The media. On balance, still favourable to Labour - though not by as much as has been the case. This may or may not hold through to 2009/10.
There are a lot of points to be made on the other side as well, but Cameron will have done extraordinarily well to win outright. Like I said at [41], that scenario is rare - partly for some of the structural reasons listed above. To even get to largest party status will be going some though he’s at least bringing that goal within range.
46 David Brackenbury “When the activist base withers, it is extremely hard to replace!”
True. In GE 2005 Labour was only able to have a few more campaign workers in each seat than the Lib Dems. The Conservatives had increased theirs to 2.5 times Labour. The % of Councillors that are Labour is also at its lowest in more than 34 years. Labour Membership of 182,000 (end 06) is 220,000 down from 1997.
All those lovely Daves!
*swoon*
Erm, or something….
They do make one come over a bit faint, don’t they, Andy?!!!!!
57 HF, and of course having fewer councillors equates to local parties having less money (since most councillors pay over a proportion of their expenses, and councils also pay for “research officers” based on the number of councillors).
58 When will we see a Roger’s Nightmare? 10 beaming Dave’s
If ICM poll does appear hope Mike does the split screen effect : 8 Daves on one side and x (6?) Daves on the other… though will your heart stand it?
It’s worth emphasizing just how catastrophic Labour’s loss of councillors has been over the last decade.
There are councils which were Labour controlled 9 years ago, and which now have no Labour Members at all. They have gone from landslide to complete obliteration in just 9 years.
The Tories are in the fortunate position of having far more activists than Labour now. The big question for Labour and the Libdems is, have the Tories learnt how to use that extra manpower yet? If the Tories manage to deploy their troops anywhere near as effectively as the Libdems, then surely it will mean they will pick up more seats than uniform swing indicates.
And the later the GE, the more time the Tories have to learn modern campagning. Another reason why Brown should have gone this Autumn.
Returning GIN’s generous comment of a couple of days ago - this is certainly an excellent Tory poll. I’m not sure that any of us were expecting either MORI’s Labour lead or a sudden 8% Tory lead, so we’d better be a bit cautious in interpeting it (as David Herdson is). I’d like to see the certainty to vote figures, as I do think the Tories are keener at the moment and that could be part of the picture.
Is the LD leadership contest getting them some momentum after all?
60 Yes Barry, the Labour pay roll is weakening.
62 Once-Bitten “Another reason why Brown should have gone this Autumn.”
Yes, it was. Who is going to re-build Labour? Is Harriet upto the job of re-building the party’s activists in each area? She still has her other 2 jobs of an MP and Leader of the House.
What about wee Dougie? He also has 2 other jobs, International Dev and MP. What time has he got for Labour party building? He fails to run 2 election campaigns.
63: Nick, as your leader has taken you from being 11 points in the lead to 8 points behind in a few months, something Blair took years to do, are backbenchers like you thinking about a change?
65 - The polls you refer to are not comparable, completely different methodologies. Labour only had a 3 point lead in the last Comm Res poll, when others were showing a lead of 7-8 points. This is a 5 point swing to the Tories since before the conference season, similar to the picture in other polls. My view is that the underlying position at the moment is a Tory lead of 3-4 points but there is so much volatility that we won’t be sure for a couple of months, and maybe until the new year.
That’s it! We’ve won the election!
I always value the analysis of ComRes!
Conservatives = Watford = championes!
Palace = LDs = going down
56
I think your hopes of getting me down from the clouds (only about cloud 7 not Cloud 9) are overplaying the obstacles you suggest. In the end total vote share is important, but its critical what’s happening in the marginals. The Tories have been working very hard indeed in the marginals from what I have read here and elswhere, and I suspect that irrespective of incumbency, that fact won’t play too well.
It would be fascinating to find out where the marginals are now and what the voting intentions are. I wonder if they could be better for Labour…or even worse ?
40, 54
No crash this year imo. Late 2008 imo
With UK market mainly oil, mining , banks and Vodaphone..
oil at record highs, metals still strong, banks lowly rated and Vodaphone doing well.
I expect new FTSE100 highs - all time highs .. this year or early next.
Ananova confirming poll. A few more details…..
ComRes interviewed 1,002 British adults over the phone between October 26 and 28.
A disappointing poll for us, but as we’ve not had a single good week (and a few very bad weeks) since annual conference this is not too surprising. Maybe if our leader got on with rolling out a little bit of moderate social democracy and little less blatant stealing of tory positions our intention to votes numbers might harden up a little bit.
(BTW this isn’t a call for a core vote strategy, just a good govt, do what we said in the election campaign, let’s give the impression we are not just in office but actually in power strategy. And yes I am feeling grumpy at the mo’)
Hain has to apologise…
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/7068291.stm
It would appear that the clunking fist is every bit the electoral liability, predicted by the one who shall not be named!
What our party needs is a leader with the strength to unite us, the courage to lead us and the vision to carry us through to a glorious victory at the next GE.
Forget Dougie, Harmen & Millipede, I call upon our own little chipmunk, Hazel Blears to lead us into the light.
57 Clrs are largle useless at GEs. When their name is not on the ballot paper a huge % are “busy in the town Hall” rather than canvassing. There are now a lot of them that would fear a Tory win as the Cons would become less popular in local elections and tehy would be defeated. The cash is a huge driver in motivating many local cllrs. Blair polluted local government…
O/T The LibDem leadership candidates will be holding a hustings here in Worthing mid November . I will make my mind up after I have heard them speak .
75 - try tossing a coin - that will help you make your mind up!
And more bad news for the government. Uninsured car figures rising…
http://tinyurl.com/2zdmf3
Is there more than one candidate for the LibDem election?
75. Mark, would you mind dropping me a quick e-mail to julian.harris.81@googlemail.com ? Many Thanks.
78 There must be as half the Conservative posters on here are urging me to vote for Clegg and the half that fear Clegg are uring me to vote for Huhne .
I don’t know about everyone else, but I feel a bit queasy at the extreme volatility of the polls. In a matter of months, we have gone from seeing 10 “Gordons” to 8 “Daves”. It’s almost as if voters are so casual in their opinions that they are prepared to switch sides on a whim.
This apparent fact, coupled with the uncomfortably strong showing of the BNP in local elections, take the edge of the pleasure that I have in seeing a decent Conservative lead in the polls.
It is not based on a solid bedrock of support, any more than Labour’s was.
79 OK 2 MINS
On immigration as 80% of immigrants are from the EU - how is DC going to do much about it. He talks about non EU migrants but that might help publicity wise but prcatically not much good.
I met a true blue tory the other week who is leaving Britain to go to live in Spain “to get away from those b….y immigrants.”
83 And you can bet they wont learn Spanish….
74 David “There are now a lot of them that would fear a Tory win as the Cons would become less popular in local elections”
Not the vast majority of Conservative cllrs I know who only stand to help improve the chances of a Conservative councillor and the same for Lib Dems who are a pyramid supporting a LD PPC.
David are you reflecting the view in Labour?
83 I think I heard today that 70% of immigration was from outside the EU. Anyone know for sure..
85 Before the Blaitr cash people stood for Council to contribute to their community. Ther are now a whole swatyhe -in all parties motivated by the money above much else. They want full party support at the local elections and the often are scarce at a GE campaign. …
66: Will the average chap looking at the news stand and seeing the headline seeing that the Tories are 8 points ahead think ‘oh yes completely different methodologies’?
82. Cheers. I’m having to pass this laptop back to its owner now but will respond in the morning.
86 My source is a Labour minister reported on the BBC. I always believe Labour ministers… But if Liam Byrne is right - only by leaving the EU could one stop the flow, and of course stop Brits retiring to Costa Inglese in Spain.
But immigration minister Liam Byrne said Mr Cameron’s plans were a “smokescreen”, as 80% of immigrants to Britain last year were from the European Economic Area.
Welcome David Brackenbury - I haven’t seen you posting before although I’ve been too busy to post much recently. I presume you are the Derby Conservative David Brackenbury rather than my brother David Brackenbury though?!
Great poll for the Tories, and it is the opposition parties setting the agenda at the moment so no surprise to see them both heading up, but as much as this is a bit of a surprise.
And I have been getting more involved with my local Lib Dems, and taking some soundings on the LD leadership. I’ve previously posted that I saw it as 75% that Clegg would win it - I’d like to revise that to 60% - lots of Huhne supporters who aren’t convinced by Clegg.
88 - No, but backbench MPs are not ‘the average chap’. I doubt the general population pays much attention to opinion polls, they bob up and down. Obviously Labour backbenchers will start to get concerned if Labour is consistently behind by 8-10 points for several months but I doubt one bad poll will panic them too much with an election 2+ years away.
90 see 72. I have my doubts about any Govt statistics..or in act to be fair any statistics….
Its amazing how the conservatives are now dominating the policy agenda. I cant remember a time in the past 10 years that the media are reporting so much, and in a fairly positive light conservative policies.
It also seems that the tory media machine is now far superior to that of labour. Some how I just cant imagine blair’s team allowing tory policies to be announced without labour announcing their own, ‘better’ polcies, blocking the tories out of the media. And hains untimely admission that the governments immigrant figures are wrong will further fuel support for camerons immigration policy. was this luck? or a clever tactic from camerons team
51. Michael (dufflecoat) Foot.
No, it was a Donkey Jacket. Compared to him, Kinnock was fresh and he and Glenys made a nice couple. Roy Hattersley was Shadow Chancellor in 1987. What a team!
92: Kieran, people don’t pay attention to one poll but they do see patterns developing. The clear pattern is that Brown started well and then imploded. Now that might not be correct but that’s not important the narrative is.
95
your memory is better than mine…,(not the first or last time I will be corrected no doubt!) I always thought it looked like a dufflecoat. Wikepedia supports your assertion, though they say it was actually a very expensive coat bought by his wife. it just didnt look good.
Mike - looking forward just a few weeks, perhaps you should give some consideration as to how precisely you intend to present the images of Dave when the Tory lead extends to 13%,14% or 15%. This could be by, say, four rows of four, three rows of five or two rows of eight.
Also, now that Baxter has belatedly come to terms with his previous understated forecast of Lib Dem seats, you may also wish to consider including a representation of their likely tally after the next GE, using images of London black cabs, where each cab represents its maximum occupancy of 5 MPs.
98 - one black cab should be enough…….
96 - That may be the pattern now, but 2 months ago the pattern was Cameron imploding. Nobody knows how political fortunes will change over the next 2 years. The media may get tired of bashing Brown in the same way they got tired of praising him to the rafters. Also, there is no substantial evidence that Labour has continued to fall since the non-election. The swing in this poll is similar to those in polls by other firms just after the non-election. We have to wait until more YG and ICM polls to be sure. I’m not saying Tories shouldn’t be optimistic, they are doing well at the moment. But Labour were doing well at times during the 79-92 period but still ended up losing when the GE came around.
99. A chariot bike should do it.
98 - maybe a unicycle. Mark Senior what do you think??? Will make choosing the leader easier…..
This must be an anomalous poll, it goes against all the trends of the last fortnight. YouGov and Mori are respected pollsters, as opposed to the fly by night ComRes. I think a lot of people will have egg on their faces when the next ICM poll comes out.
By the way, I’m still willing to bet with anyone (up to £10) that there will be at least ONE ICM or YouGov poll before the end of the year that shows a headline Labour lead.
81. Disraeli. Yes I have found this surprising. But when you consider that many of these polls only question just over 1000 people it doesn’t take many “soft” voters to switch the polls. Say we take a rough average recent position of 37 per cent for both Labour and Tories? If there is a net shift of 40 out of a 1000 of these voters from one party to the other then neck and neck moves to 41 against 33 per cent, an 8 per cent lead. There is great volatility at present but it only happens and only counts among that small but essential election-deciding swing voter group.
What has surprised me most about the polls, as I have grappled with and increasingly understood this issue, is not only how volatile they are but also how reactive they are in both the very short term and the medium term. You can BET that a big political story will have both an immediate effect on the next polls and an additional medium term slow burn effect.
So in this “up for grabs” electoral climate every twist and turn affects the news, the polls and subsequently the betting. I don’t personally think we are entering a boat race. Large leads which move with the tide seem far more likely to me and I’m personally betting on large Tory leads.
102 I think Watford Conservatives will need a hearse next May when they win zero seats in the local elections
105 LOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOL!
Isn’t it time for your bedtime (actually wasn’t it time at 6pm?)
104 I have said this before about the volatility of the polls . The majority of voters do not think about politics from day to day . You can envisage the phone going and a harrassed mum changing baby’s nappy , they will tell ICM or whoever they will votefor the 1st party that comes into mind probably the one they heard about last onthe news . The floating voters have been floating about as in a storm recently from1 party to another .
Although Sean Fear and I are both Tories, we disagree very considerably on the respective political abilities of Blair and Brown. I remember him severely chastising me just a few weeks ago, when I stated, truthfully, that in my experience most of the Tories I know had a grudging respect for Blair, whereas Brown was seriously disliked and genuine concerns were expressed as regards whether he was up to the job of PM.
With every passing day, I become more convinced that he is not and that he will quit his position within the next 12-18 months “to spend more time with his family” or something of that ilk, giving his asuccessor just a year or so to pull the party round and to have a reasonable fist at contesting a Spring 2010 General Elaection.
105: Mark, please explain how your blind hatred of the Tories helps the LibDem cause? Your party ratings have halved since 2005 !for Gods sake man wake up. You really are a Labour tool in every sense of the word.
109 LOL
LDs = finished.
Con 20% ahead soon.
Goodnight all - see you tomorrow for more analysis on ‘the end of the LDs’
re 47 and Andy a 41/36/16 split leaves Labour the largest party which proves my point.
Lib Dems should take note that labour is a soft target, and should elect Huhne and not Clegg - that is if their objective is to win seats at Westminster.
108. Peter. As you know I agree with your assessment of Brown. And also of Blair. But although I have taken the 50/1 Jack Straw to be next leader of the Labour party, I suspect Labour and Britain are stuck with Brown until the next election and that Labour will as a result lose that election. He could implode but unlikely.
And yet every cloud has a silver lining! For Labour to turn the tide simply requires the deft, confident, assured, unspun and steady leadership that we were all led to believe that Brown could provide during his honeymoon period. But I don’t think he can and as a result identify a betting opportunity which looks more obvious by the day.
108 Considering my own post in betting terms, were Brown to leave office by my last forecast date, of 30 April 2009, i.e. 18 months hence, he will, by that date, have served for 95 weeks. This compares with the current “Brown Weeks” sell price on Spreadfair of 111.25 weeks. Hmm …. if I were to follow my own covictions, I should sell therefore. The counter argument is that by that time Labour might be so unpopular that they are committed to hanging on until the last possible opportunity for holding a GE in Spring 2010, by which time Brown might have clocked up as many as 160 weeks as PM - Ouch!
91 - tpfkar
Thank you for your kind welcome and I was indeed the Derby Conservative David Brackenbury. My best to your brother though!
An interesting situation in these few weeks. The Conservatives have recovered to an extent no-one would have believed possible before it happened and Labour seem to have lost the initiative and little of what they say is getting through, perhaps because of a suddenly more sceptical media. No room for complacency, but the entire political landscape is as open as it has been since before the 1992 GE.
I agree with your trimming the odds on Nick Clegg. It seems to me that he has less individuality than Chris Huhne, although I am pretty sure he will still win. Once the LDs have chosen their new Leader, we will have a much better idea of how they will stand. Their contest is slightly being drowned out by the noise of the two big Parties, but I guess that there is time yet!
stjohn - I have a new footy betting opportunity for you to consider - should I post it here now or email it to your blueyonder address as per PtP’s circular - please let me know.
111. Has a Party ever got 5% fewer votes in a GE and still won most seats?
I don’t think it’s ever happened in history so I wouldn’t be too confident it would happen next time. Especially when the next GE will be on much more up to date boundaries (which are also going out of date much more slowly than they have in the past).
re 117 those are the figures with the new boundaries. For C/Lab 41/36 then for each percentage that the Lib Dems go up the Tories fall even further behind Labour.
what about ICM?
also re 177. The 1874 election, the Liberals on 52% were 7.7% ahead of the Tories and got 108 fewer seats. {Probably lots of Tory unopposeds though.
also re 117. The new boundaries are based on 2001 population estimates. They’ll already be almost a decade out of date the first time they’re used. Population is also expected to increase by 20m over the next 20 years - at that rate boundaries will be perpetually out of date.
Brown needs friends like these?
‘In an open letter to the French newspaper Le Monde, Mr D’Estaing sought to clarify his view on the differences - if any - between two treaties.
“Looking at the content,” he wrote “the result is that the institutional proposals of the constitutional treaty….are found complete in the Lisbon Treaty, only in a different order and inserted in former treaties..”
He made clear that the purpose of the rewritten Treaty (now called the Lisbon Treaty) was to make people think the new version did not merit being put to the people in referendums.
“Above all, it is to avoid having referendums thanks to the fact that the articles are spread out and constitutional vocabulary has been removed,” he added.’
OK it looks like stjohn has gone to bed - anyone else want to hear my footy betting opportunity, with Mike’s kind forebearance - well it is late?
118. I know but they are the figures using electoral calculators using UNS (whether additive or proportional).
I am just saying that in practice I don’t think it would actually happen. I don’t think it’s ever happened in history and I don’t think it would happen next time either.
116. Happy either way Peter. Whatever you decide I feel confident you will try and stitch me up!
115. Does anyone else feel that we are at risk of being overrun by Brackenburys? Up until recently I didn’t know there were any here and all of a sudden I know of three!
re 124 see 120
121. They’re actually based on the 2000 electorates.
But if you read the Boundary Commission Report you will see that the rate they are going out of date is much slower than in previous decades.
They have done an analysis comparing how quickly the previous constituencies (based on 1991 electorates) went out of date compared to the new constituencies based on 2000 electorates.
The new constituencies are going out of date far more slowly.
125 Stitch you up? That’s after your ingratitude for my giving you a £45 net profit opportunity yesterday!
We’re talking Blackburn Rovers, an unfashionable club, just like D***y C****y and therefore largely overlooked in serious betting circles.
We’re talking buying season’s points, a market with which you are familiar, despite having ignored my suggestion of selling D***y C****y’s points tally then priced at 31, now around 25 points.
The arithmetic is compelling - so far Blackburn have collected 21 points from 10 games, extrapolating this for the 38 game season would result in them gaining 79.8 points, impossible I grant you. Statto.com (aka Angus Loughran) has them finishing on 68 points, compared with the current spread buying price on IG and Sporting of 59.5 points and 58.8 points on Spreadfair - it’s actually quite difficult to see how one could lose on this bet and even a final tally of, say 64 points, 5 points below Statto’s forecast, provides a useful profit at minimal risk. What do you think?
Well, it looks as if we LDs can breathe a sigh of relief, but then it is Com Res. Their polls are bizarre on occasion, so no sighs of relief yet!
re 128 good tip. But I don’t do spreads. I have bet against Spurs Top 6. And on Watford to Win Championship. Both looking profitable.
re 128 good tip. But I don’t do spreads. I have bet against Spurs Top 6. And on Watford to Win Championship. Both looking profitable.
128. Interesting. Blackburn are also much more highly rated by the Fink Tank statistical analysis in the Times (compared to general perceptions).
130&131 Thank you Martin. Thank you Martin.
132 Mike - does the “fink tank” have a projection for Blackburn’s end of season points tally please?
128 - interesting, thanks. You could say much the same about Pompey (buy at 56.0), much though it pains me to say it.
Peter. Looks interesting. I will have to refer it to the “Think Tank” when he is awake and has had his Shredded Wheat. Until then, adieu.
125 “…overrun by Brackenburys?” Heaven forfend!
Not at all. You can’t have too much of a good thing!
128 - Interesting call Peter, sounds reasonable as long as Hughes remains at Rovers, but having said that where is he likely to go to?
135 Actually Andy, Statto’s forecast outcome for the season shows Pompey gaining approx 6 points more than the spread betting market is indicating.
Goodnight all.
138 England? LOL
134. Yes it will have one but I can’t find anything online at the moment.
re 128. Thanks Peter - as you say a good bet. But I have a problem. My family is from Burnley only nine miles away. And of all the clubs in the entire world that we hate the most it is Blackburn or “Bas**rd Rovers” as we call them. There is no language strong enough to express our loathing. We recall how on that day in 1987 as we were fighting for our survival in the Football League a small plane circled Turf Moor pulling a banner saying “Bye Bye Burnley”.
We also recall the time that after Blackburn got defeated in a European competition by semi-amateur team from Sweeden Burnley Council proposed that the town involved should be its twin.
The one good thing you can say about Alistair Campbell is that he is a Burnley fan. Jack straw supports Blackburn - need I say more.
142 Jack Straw supports Blackburn - need I say more.
Well he’d have to wouldn’t he?
Thanks Mike, goodnight.
56 - “Government spending. …generating a nice client base both in the public sector…”
Most of the public sector had a pay cut last year (after inflation) and will have the same again this year and essentially for perpetuity such is the state of the nation’s finances. There will be more strikes to follow those of the postal workers. Good luck to them.
Whilst the union leadership might be supine enough to pony up the money for an election campaign, fewer of their members will be bothered to vote or campaign for New Labour in such circumstances.
There’s no daring from the government. They’re so busy worrying about the media, the focus groups and the Opposition, that the whole machinery of Government is stuttering as badly as Gordon Brown at PMQs. HMG now also faces becoming embroiled in a bruising battle to ratify an unpopular Euro-treaty.
Brown clearly had an opportunity to set the agenda, and mark a change from Blair, but he has blown it big time. His only remaining hope is that Cameron is too arrogant and becomes too cocky and makes the mistakes that start to worry people. I fervently hope that this will happen, but as a fictional Anna once said: “Hopes are for things you want to come true, but doubt that they will.”
117. “Has a party ever got most seats with 5% fewer votes?”
It is well known that the largest party (in votes) has not been the largest party (in seats) twice since 1945 (1951 and 1974F) but perhaps less well known that it has happened 9 times since 1832. In the mid-19th century the vote/seat statistics were distorted by (a) big differences in electorates (c) large number of uncontested seats (b) different numbers of candidates for different parties (d) as well as blurred/fuzzy definitions of parties.
(goes to consult book)
British Electoral Facts 1832-1987 by F W S Craig
1847:
Con 42.2%, 325 seats
Lib 53.9%, 292 seats
1852:
Con 41.4%, 330
Lib 58.4%, 324
1874:
Con 43.9%, 350
Lib 52.7%, 242
Where is everybody? Am I going to be stuck on the end of a thread again?!?
Don’t worry John, I’m here.
128 “it’s actually quite difficult to see how one could lose on this bet”
But here’s how (just in case you were wondering):
Blackburn currently have 21 points from 10 games and therefore to at least break even by achieving a final tally of 60 points, they need to secure a further 39 points from their remaining 28 games. This could be achieved, for example, by winning 11 games, drawing 6 and losing the remaining 11. This appears somewhat pessimistic based on recent form, but anything worse would indeed result in a loss.
148 A glut of draws would not be especially helpful. For example, if their remaining 28 fixtures were to finish Won 9, Drawn 10, Lost 9, their finally points tally would be 58 - resulting in a loss of 1.5 points on the current buying price of 59.5 points. Disappointing, but hardly disastrous.